Author: Rob Staton (Page 55 of 428)

You can’t escape the Geno Smith debate. It’s constant within the fanbase and media — and for good reason. Quarterback is the most talked about position in the NFL and until the Seahawks have an unquestioned franchise caliber signal caller, it’ll be the hottest topic in town.

I am, though, surprised by the nature of the discussion. There’s almost a level of disbelief at the thought that Smith might not be with the Seahawks next season. It goes a step further when people use language like ‘anti-Geno’ and ‘Geno haters’. Maybe there is an army of Seahawks fans on the rampage, taking any opportunity to slander the quarterback. I’ve seen no real evidence of it though. It makes you wonder whether being ‘anti-Geno’ or a ‘hater’ simply amounts to not rating him as highly as others, or being open to the possibility that he isn’t for long on the roster?

I think people are letting their own personal sentiments on Geno’s worth cloud their view on what could actually happen in the coming weeks. Here’s the situation as I see it. If you think it’s unreasonable, say so in the comments section.

— Geno Smith has shown himself to be a viable NFL starting quarterback, which wasn’t the conventional wisdom two years ago. His PFF grade has been in the top-half of the league at his position for the last two years and is on a similar level to Jared Goff in Detroit. Statistically there are a lot of strong arguments to be made in his favour.

— As John Schneider pointed out, though, he has been an up-and-down performer. He started the 2022 season as a legit MVP candidate, with incredible production and performance. Yet in the second half of the season, things tailed off fairly dramatically to the point he ranked second in the NFL for turnover worthy plays. This year, the reverse happened. He started very slowly and had some ugly moments within a streaky overall offensive unit. Then, in the second half of the season, he recaptured a high level of performance.

— It doesn’t feel unreasonable to describe Smith as such — he is in no way, shape or form a ‘problem’ for the Seahawks that requires immediate, drastic action. However, it equally isn’t unreasonable to question whether he is ever going to be able to lead the Seahawks to where they want to get to which is contention for the Super Bowl. A few people believe Smith is ‘the guy’. I do not. I also think he’s a perfectly acceptable bridge until you find, hopefully, someone who can come in and do what Russell Wilson did and become a legit franchise quarterback. That said, there are other things the Seahawks have to consider that we as observers should also consider.

— Firstly, John Schneider’s opinion matters most, not ours. This sometimes gets overlooked. For example, Schneider spent the entire aftermath of the 2022 draft talking about the renewed emphasis the Seahawks were placing on character. He continued to say this 12 months ago. Even so, many were still convinced he was going to take Jalen Carter with the #5 pick, despite repeated questions about his character and a highly publicised news story about his potential involvement in a high-speed crash that killed two people.

— There have been other mistakes too. How often was the Russell Wilson trade talk dismissed as a non-story? Clearly it wasn’t and it didn’t take much research to come to that conclusion. It’s still amazing how many people outright failed to consider it as a possibility. Especially when there was so much smoke — Schneider’s relationship with Wilson’s agent, the reports about interest in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, the Adam Schefter tweet listing teams Wilson would be prepared to go to, and so on.

— Schneider has been completely non-committal on Smith so far, as has the Head Coach he’s just appointed in Mike Macdonald. When asked to discuss Smith at his solo press conference, Schneider simply talked about his up-and-down form with no reference to next season. Macdonald name-dropped Drew Lock — a free agent — in his answer about Smith, and was equally non-committal. On Monday during an interview with Seattle Sports, Macdonald mentioned he’d spoken to ‘both quarterbacks, Drew and Geno’. It would’ve been very easy at any point to reference Smith in the future tense as the team’s starter, or speak of their aims for next season with Smith under center. Neither Schneider or Macdonald have done this, yet they keep bringing up Lock’s name, despite the fact he’s no longer contracted to the team.

— This might mean nothing. I do think it’s strange, though, if Seattle’s intention was to unquestionably bring back Smith next year, why there hasn’t been one thing said to make that clear? ‘Smith is our guy’, ‘we’re looking to see more consistency from him next year’, ‘we have so many good ideas for Geno in our offense’. These are easy things to say and if there was no doubt he was returning, there’d be absolutely zero reason not to say them. At the very least, it feels like everything is being left on the table.

— It’s often argued that Smith’s $31.2m salary is reasonable relative to his performance and compared to his peers. I think there are other things to discuss here. For example, if Schneider is minded to view Smith and/or Lock as simply ‘bridge’ quarterbacks, does he want to commit that much money to either? If he has identified a quarterback or multiple quarterbacks he likes in the draft, and intends to give a rookie every opportunity to start in 2024, it will be very difficult to bench a player earning $31.2m compared to a cheaper bridge earning, say, the $4m Lock earned in 2023. You might scoff at the possibility of such a scenario but if Schneider really likes one of these young QB’s, you can see why he might wish to make a change. It’s not automatic that the GM would prefer to sit a rookie for a year — especially if, for arguments sake, that rookie has played a lot of college football games, is already 24 and has maybe played two years with the offensive coordinator you just appointed. If you want to max-out a rookie contract and have that player start quickly — it makes little sense to carry a $31.2m backup. Lock can hedge against the draft at a far cheaper price, if needed. I don’t think this is a preposterous thing to consider.

— It’s also possible that Schneider, when faced with Smith suddenly having a cap hit three times higher than his 2023 number, simply doesn’t think there’s a $27.2m difference in quality between Smith and Lock. After all, Smith was seen as a busted flush before reviving his career in Seattle. Is it unthinkable that Schneider believes, with proper guidance, that Lock could similarly prove to be a viable, yet cheaper, bridge option? I might be sceptical of that, you might be sceptical of that but can you say with any certainty that you think there’s no chance Schneider might feel this way?

— The Seahawks are $9.5m in the red for effective cap space, per OTC. They need to save money somewhere. While most people assume Jamal Adams is a goner, you typically see passionate online arguments for keeping Smith, Quandre Diggs and Leonard Williams. You’re going to need to be more active than simply getting rid of Adams, Bryan Mone and maybe a Will Dissly. Smith’s contract was set up to have an out for a reason — to create a decision right now about how to proceed. Whether his $31.2m makes sense comparatively within the league isn’t the question. It’s whether it makes sense for the Seahawks in 2024, at the start of a new era with major cap challenges staring the team in the face.

— I think it’s perfectly plausible that Smith will stay with the team and the non-committal language recently was a leverage play in talks over a renegotiation. I don’t think it’d be that shocking to learn, before Friday, that Smith has re-worked his deal to lower his cap hit and stay in Seattle. I do think that will be necessary though — I don’t think it’s likely at all that he plays on a cap hit that is three times what he played on last year, coming off a season where his numbers dipped across the board (he didn’t hit a single escalator) and he missed time due to injury.

— If he doesn’t re-work his deal before Friday, I can well imagine some people online making declarative statements that the issue is sorted. That’s it. Nothing to see here. Smith is confirmed as Seattle’s starter for 2024. That most definitely won’t be the case. The Seahawks have until March 20th to trade him and recoup the same saving ($13.8m) as cutting him will create. That is a hard deadline, due to a bonus in his contract. It is totally possible that, between now and the end of the combine, the Seahawks talk to interested parties about a trade that is completed when the new league year begins. Only once he either re-works his deal or we pass the March 20th deadline, will Smith be confirmed as the immovable starter for the Seahawks in 2024.

— My personal prediction is that he will be dealt. I think the Seahawks will believe he has some value and will look to get something back in a trade. Their leverage will not be great, due to the financial deadline placed on them. They might be able to eat some of Smith’s bonus, in order to get higher compensation. I do think, though, that Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback and that he possibly rates Lock more than others do and that he might think a cheaper bridge, with the prospect of a rookie competing for the job, will be the direction to go. That’s my hunch but I also lean somewhat to the lukewarm nature of their words being a leverage play to get his cap hit down this year.

— If he is traded, my guess would be Pittsburgh. They just cut Mitchell Trubisky and Mason Rudolph is a free agent. They only have Kenny Pickett on the roster and recently Team President Art Rooney II left the door open for a veteran quarterback trade (while also dismissing the prospect of any move being be a ‘blockbuster’ for a player such as Justin Fields). Someone like Smith could be a perfect fit for a Steelers team who have a brilliant defense to complement an offense that simply needs to not be awful. A soon-to-be 34-year-old Smith would also give them a year’s grace with Pickett, to see if he can take a step back on a cheaper rookie deal, regroup and emerge as a contender to start in 2025.

— I don’t think the Seahawks would be able to get much in a trade but if they’ve ultimately settled on going cheaper at the position and potentially targeting the draft, getting even a fourth rounder in return would be a plus versus an outright cut.

— Although that is my prediction, I appreciate anything could happen. It feels like a very fluid situation. I think we should be open-minded about this though. It does feel a little bit like battle-lines are being drawn within the fanbase again, where you have to pick a team. Haven’t we done that enough over the years? Running game vs anti-running game. Pro-Pete vs pro-change. Now you’re either for Geno or a ‘Geno hater’. Does every fanbase do this?

My immediate thought after the Super Bowl wasn’t amusement that the 49ers had lost (I’ve kind of got to the point where watching them be obviously better than the Seahawks and losing games we’d love to be anywhere near isn’t as enjoyable as it used to be). It was more about how the Seahawks get back to contention under the leadership of John Schneider and Mike Macdonald, based on what we’d just seen.

I’m sure in the coming days plenty of people will be making declarative statements on how the team needs to be built. I think the game showed yesterday there’s a perfect mix of ingredients that make football great.

The 49ers should’ve won by dominating the trenches, running the ball with a stud running back and an effective point guard QB. A legendary, genius quarterback for the other team dragged his side back into it, supported by a great defensive tackle who didn’t benefit from having a serious edge threat to garner attention.

It was a complete team against a star-reliant team and either could’ve won.

Both are immensely difficult to emulate. You either need to spend years building, as the 49ers have done, not to mention you need to pick in the top-two and land a superstar pass rusher and you need to hit on mega-value trades for elite players. On the other hand, you’ve got to be that team that finds the legendary quarterback without them just flopping into your lap with the #1 pick — and you need to find that insane defensive lineman who somehow lasts well beyond the top-20 picks.

Currently the Seahawks are blue-chip talent deficient and they don’t have a star at quarterback. There’s a lot of work to be done.

There are some pieces to work with and if Macdonald and his staff can take talented young player and others currently in their peak and elevate their performance, the Seahawks can close the gap. I still think they’ll need to find that X-factor pass rusher, an elite quarterback or they’ll need to find creative trade opportunities and top-tier players in the mid-to-late rounds to try and get close to what the Niners have become. And that’s without even acknowledging the schematic qualities of Kyle Shanahan, who remains brilliant even with a résumé that now includes three Super Bowl defeats.

I think there are some obvious things the Seahawks can do to aid their development. Half of San Francisco’s top-eight earners next year are linemen. The other four are Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, Fred Warner and Charvarius Ward. Compare that to the Seahawks who, among their top-eight earners, are three safeties (Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Julian Love) a blocking tight end (Will Dissly) and Dre’Mont Jones, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Geno Smith. One lineman — and an underwhelming performer for his salary at that.

The Seahawks need to rip the band-aid off and transfer their safety spend into the trenches right now. This can’t just be a problem solved in the draft. Serious resource needs to be thrown at the offensive and defensive lines — starting with Leonard Williams and building from there. I’d go as far as to say they shouldn’t be looking to purely draft a great O-line. They need proven quality up front and that’s where they should be pushing the boat out — not on people like Diggs and Adams.

They do need to find difference makers in the draft. I continue to think John Schneider’s preference might be to trade down from #16 because the meat of this class is going to be rounds 2-3. There are some players who are ‘stick and pick’ types at #16 but I suspect they won’t last. Currently, some players who fit that bill could be Taliese Fuaga, JC Latham, Tyler Guyton, Jared Verse and Chop Robinson. I keep seeing mocks with Brock Bowers almost making it to #16 but I don’t see any chance of that. He would be on that list too.

Even then, how early do you want to draft a guard and/or a hedge tackle? Assuming Abe Lucas returns. Especially in a class where very good guards will be available on day two?

Verse and Robinson are different because I think both players have the potential to be genuine X-factor talents. Verse is a more traditional defensive end and has a fairly complete skill-set. I wouldn’t be shocked if he goes especially early if he tests well at the combine or pro-day.

Robinson is the one on the ‘stick and pick’ list that I’m intrigued by the most. His lack of production at Penn State seems to be raising some question marks and in many mocks he goes later in round one. I think he’s a lock to go in the top-15 and his floor will be New Orleans or Indianapolis at #14/15. If he did last to #16, it’d be very hard to pass.

Penn State are not known for getting the most out of their star defenders. For example, they played Micah Parsons as an orthodox middle linebacker. The Cowboys unlocked Parsons’ generational ability and I think a creative defensive minded coach could do the same with Robinson (and, incidentally, the Seahawks just hired Dallas’ old D-line coach to be their defensive coordinator).

Robinson might have the best first-step get-off I’ve ever seen. It’s freakishly good. His burst off the snap is elite level for the NFL, let alone college. He is incredibly dynamic as a speed rusher and his dip-and-bend balance is extraordinary. The sack numbers are a bit deceptive because he is so disruptive even when he doesn’t get home. I don’t see it as a problem and think, with creative scheming and further coaching on minor technique issues, he could be a nightmare in the NFL. We’re talking about ‘sky is the limit’ potential, legit blue-chip, game-wrecking talent.

He’s well sized at approximately 255lbs, he’d be an ideal scheme fit and while he definitely needs to work on discipline versus the run, he has enough jolting power in his hands and the ‘want to’ to be a plus in this area, too.

He will be a combine dynamo and that will further propel him higher into the minds of the teams picking ahead of the Seahawks. He is a player with the special qualities, though, to be the kind of X-factor the Seahawks are going to need rushing the passer.

In terms of quarterbacks, I’m constantly torn on this class. You can go through several of the names and pick out genuine physical traits that hint at top-level talent. Michael Penix Jr’s arm is on the same level as Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. However, I’m not sold that he can play the patient game Mahomes did yesterday, or be more than someone reliant on the big explosive passes. He’s a pocket passer, not a scrambler and creator. Maybe the Seahawks want to live in that world? They hired Ryan Grubb and interviewed Eric Bieniemy. That suggests they want a high-octane, pass-centric offense. But the NFL isn’t typically a league where big downfield passes can be relied on — even if Penix Jr is better placed than practically every other QB entering the league to deliver on them.

Bo Nix also has a fantastic arm, he’s very athletic and he can do a lot of good things. Does he scream top-tier quarterback though? It’s hard to feel that way. But what if they want to go the point guard route? He has the physical upside to do that very well.

Spencer Rattler is a poor-man’s, mini-Mahomes — he can do the crazy escapability, surprising shiftiness as a runner, he can throw from different arm angles and on the run. He even has some of Mahomes’ mannerisms. He lacks the size though, he doesn’t have quite the same arm and there are character questions from his Oklahoma days he’ll need to answer. Unlike Mahomes, Rattler also never had the big, consistent production in college. That could be a scheme/situational thing but it’s an area where Penix Jr and Nix both tick a box.

I could make a case for any of the trio going quite high in the draft, or lasting into day two. So what do you do?

It might be best to just sit on the grades and let the draft come to you. I have all three in round two. If you trade down from #16 and get back into the second frame — consider taking one if available. Start taking shots at the position. That’s what Green Bay used to do. Ditto if any of them last into round three.

Unfortunately the Seahawks are in this zone now where they are probably going to have to take a few chances and keep waiting until John Schneider finds that guy he loves as much as Russell Wilson, Mahomes and Allen. That QB may or may not be in this class. It could be Quinn Ewers next year. We’ll need to see.

What I would say though, is that trendy picks such as Jackson Powers-Johnson at #16 or Troy Fautanu to play guard feel a bit of a reach to me. After a trade down? That’d be fine. I don’t think either is vastly superior to Graham Barton or Sedrick Van Pran. I think you can find terrific interior O-line options in rounds 2-4 and I’d like to see a veteran focus there first and foremost, if possible.

Friday was a busy day, firstly with the confirmation that Cowboys D-line coach Aden Durde would join the Seahawks as defensive coordinator. Then, with a flurry of Twitter activity and a few beers at Dino’s doing the rounds, it was confirmed that Ryan Grubb is the new offensive coordinator.

Ryan Grubb will be a fascinating experiment

It’s extremely rare that a college coach jumps over to lead an offense in the NFL. Grubb is tasked with building a system for the pro’s having never previously coached at this level. People who follow the Huskies say he’s perfectly prepared to do it but the proof, as they say, will be in the pudding.

It perhaps shouldn’t be a huge surprise that the Seahawks have gone in this direction. The market for offensive play-callers is extremely limited these days. Some of the up-and-coming names have been promoted to Head Coaching positions from positional jobs already. Others are already secure in coordinator jobs. This is why Shane Waldron immediately found employment in Chicago (when his former players can barely conceal their disdain for the job he did in Seattle). It’s why Luke Getsy and Kliff Kingsbury were pushed back into employment against all better judgement. It’s why Chip Kelly received NFL interviews.

You could argue it’s an inspired gamble by the Seahawks not to force things by going with a re-tread hire, instead looking to college. The NIL situation is changing the face of college football and they need to find a proper structure for it ASAP. Until that happens, there will be more retirements (Nick Saban) and more coaches desperate to run away from their teams (Kelly, Jeff Hafley). Not to mention the pro and college games are more closely aligned than ever schematically.

That said, there’s still a risk factor. I had a conversation recently with a vastly experienced NFL personnel man and, when talking about Michael Penix Jr, he bemoaned the pre-determined nature of Washington’s offense. You’re not going to be able to do that in the NFL. There’s also a danger that, as with Kelly in Philadelphia, you start quickly and then teams adjust and things become predictable and easy to defend very quickly. The Seahawks have to avoid being gimmicky and come up with something innovative and challenging. They can no longer be a team that ‘does what it does’ on offense — they need game-specific plans for each opponent, targeting weaknesses while finding ways to highlight their best weapons against those weaknesses. They need to master misdirection and be a team that adjusts well in-game.

What I do think this appointment tells us, however, is that the Seahawks want to be the aggressor. Washington’s offense was explosive and loved to take shots. Since Pete Carroll’s departure, this is what I think John Schneider has craved. It’s why, I think, Mike Kafka appealed so much because he would try to bring Andy Reid’s scheme to Seattle. This isn’t going to be three yards and a cloud of dust every play. This is going to be attack-minded.

Mike Macdonald isn’t going to be conservative. Look at Baltimore. The Ravens defense had a remarkable 88 total snaps this year when trailing. They benefitted so much from scoreboard pressure in 2023. The Seahawks, by appointing Grubb to build the offense, are likely to want to emulate that.

The other benefit is I’m not convinced Grubb will be rushing for the exit if things go well. That could’ve easily been the case with, say, Tanner Engstrand. Younger, successful offensive coordinators are quickly getting poached. Grubb may propel himself into that range but it seems unlikely a NFL team would ask him to run a whole operation after one full season in the league. Macdonald said at his press conference he wanted someone to build the offense and run it for years and in Grubb, they might have someone who — if successful — could be in place for at least 2-3 seasons if not longer, before any Head Coaching attention comes his way.

There’s another comparison to Baltimore in that they also appointed an offensive coordinator from college recently in Todd Monken. His background was previously NFL-heavy before going to Georgia, so it’s different. But perhaps Macdonald has experienced how beneficial it is to mesh some of the college spread options with a pro-flavour.

I’ve no idea whether this is a good move or not. I think people who haven’t been around Grubb who say it’s a ‘great hire’ are perhaps dabbling in fan service or getting caught up in the moment. It really could go either way and that’s why I’d call it an intriguing hire rather than a brilliant one. I’m happy to live with the unknown, though. For years the Seahawks were too predictable, too obviously heading for the same kind of season with the same kind of end-result. Give me a bit of mystery.

The hiring of Grubb will also ramp up talk of Huskies coming to Seattle through the draft. Not just the quarterback either — Troy Fautanu, Roger Rosengarten, Jalen McMillan, Ja’Lynn Polk, Dillon Johnson and Jack Westover are all options (Rome Odunze will be long gone as a top-six pick). For what it’s worth, when I was at the UW facility the word was Polk and Johnson were exactly the character fits Seattle looks for. O-line help is a need for Seattle and Scott Huff’s reported arrival as O-line coach certainly puts someone like Fautanu into play.

I do think connections to Michael Penix Jr, though, will be more than just hyperbole. It’s why I’ve put him with Seattle in my two recent mocks. For all of the doubts people have, and I’ve written about them in great detail myself, you just can’t get away from the fact that his arm talent is special. Field-tilting special. I’ll keep saying it — people weren’t taking Patrick Mahomes and his arm talent seriously until Kansas City moved up to get him. The month before the 2017 draft, Daniel Jeremiah didn’t even have him in his top-50 rankings.

I’m not saying Penix Jr is Mahomes. He isn’t. But don’t underestimate difference making talent. Penix Jr can make throws that I’d suggest only the likes of Mahomes and Josh Allen are capable of. He can put a football in places that shouldn’t be possible. He can fit throws downfield, off-balance, in-between defenders in a way that leaves your jaw-dropped. He also sometimes struggles with the shorter-intermediate game and he isn’t going be a mad-scrambler who can frustratingly avoid pressure and extend drives like Mahomes and Allen. But purely in terms of the arm — it’s special. If the Seahawks want to attack opponents downfield, Penix Jr is a serious option — especially now that they’ve appointed his old OC who he enjoyed a very strong working relationship with.

Aden Durde hire makes perfect sense

Immediately after Mike Macdonald’s opening press conference, it felt like this kind of appointment was likely at defensive coordinator. He spoke about calling plays initially but finding someone who, in time, could take on that responsibility. That felt like an up-and-comer type hire rather than an established former DC and that’s what the Seahawks have gone for.

Durde isn’t totally inexperienced though. In fact, he’s eight years older than the Head Coach. He’s risen through the ranks, from coaching in London to the top level. He’s been in the NFL and NFL Europe — it’s not as if he was just practising for a start-up English team and suddenly wound up in the league. He’s into his sixth season as a NFL coach and was highly regarded in Dallas.

Reaching out to people who’ve been around him, he’s said to be a great communicator and leader who was highly valued as a positional coach with the Cowboys. He was a contender to replace Dan Quinn but Jerry Jones being Jerry Jones, he couldn’t help but go for the splashy big-name instead.

The Seahawks didn’t need a wise head to be defensive coordinator because they already had Leslie Frasier to fill that need. This feels like a very solid plan to add someone with a D-line background to the staff, complementing Karl Scott (DB’s) and Kirk Olivadotti (linebackers).

Overall it’s an interesting staff being built. It might’ve been nice to steal from the Ravens given the consistency of success they have but it seems that won’t be possible. The Seahawks did face a challenge in appointing a Head Coach who has had a rapid ascension — he likely hasn’t spent the last two years building contacts to prepare to lead a team. They are building in ways they can at a time when there aren’t a ton of obvious targets who are unemployed on offense or defense.

You can sense an excitement among the fanbase again and that is to be welcomed. I’ll say again though, as with the Grubb hire, I think it’s more of an intriguing unknown. This whole plan is. It’ll be fascinating to see how the new era of Seahawks football plays out. Sometimes a bit of mystery is a good thing.

For more thoughts on the Grubb hire check out my latest video:

I was on KJR earlier talking to Softy & Dick about the appointment of Aden Durde as the new Seahawks defensive coordinator. Check it out below…

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

This offseason will be one of the most intriguing in recent Seahawk history.

A new coach.  A new system of ideas for both sides of the ball.

A General Manager with full personnel control for the first time.

The moves they make in the very near future will give us all kinds of things to break down and analyze:

— How they view the roster as it currently stands

— What players they value as key building blocks, critical system players — and which they do not

— What positions they value -and- what kind of offense and defense they anticipate implementing

— The team’s expectations for success in 2024.  Do they feel a few tweaks are in order, or do they need to take a step back in 2024 to take two or three steps forward in future seasons?

Moves they make in the next month or so will start to give us a sense of direction the team leadership is headed in.

Now until March 13

The Seahawks Can Negotiate Trades and Release Players

They can talk with teams about trading players, come to an agreement and even leak the news.  Trades will become official when the new league year starts March 13.

NFL teams can process a max of two post-June 1 releases before June 1 comes.  They process March 13, but there is nothing keeping them from leaking the news and letting the player start looking at his options.

A big key point that often goes forgotten by fans on this specific cut:  The player (and his cap hit) technically stays on the roster until after June 1.  A post-June 1 cut often gives teams more cap room than a regular cut but the tradeoff is they do not have access to that cap room until the summertime.

Straight releases can be done at this time as well.  It’s very likely Bryan Mone will be released to get the team in cap compliance.  Possibly Nick Bellore as well.

The Seahawks Have a Window to Exclusively Negotiate with their Unrestricted Free Agents

This is a key period for the Seahawks.  If they have designs on keeping some of their free agents, now is the time to get some intel on the market, initiate contract negotiations and plan accordingly.

The Seahawks have some key Unrestricted Free Agents they can exclusively talk to in this window:

Offense:  Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Colby Parkinson, Damien Lewis

Defense:  Leonard Williams, Jordyn Brooks, Devin Bush, Bobby Wagner

There are other UFA’s like Deejay Dallas, Evan Brown and Mario Edwards Jr but these players are most likely not a top priority (unless they are eager to sign an extremely friendly contract, that is).

The challenge is, they need to balance their books…

The Seahawks are Over the 2024 Salary Cap

Spotrac has them $800k over the salary cap, OTC has them as $5.2 million over currently.  It appears their cap rollover from 2023 is the main difference.  It will get sorted out but the main takeaway is the team needs to find some cap savings to get under the cap before the league year starts on March 13.

February 16: 2024 Salary Guarantees Come into Effect

Quarterback Geno Smith has no guaranteed money on his contract currently.  That will change five days after the Super Bowl, as his entire $12.7 million salary for 2024 becomes guaranteed.  We discussed the options the Seahawks have an the ramifications of their decisions here.

This date is not a ‘point of no return’ for the Seahawks with Smith but it most definitely limits their options regarding cutting him or renegotiating his contract.  If they get to this point without taking either of those actions, that signals that they either intend to trade him (there is another deadline for that action coming up shortly) or have him on the roster in 2024.

Wide Receiver D.K. Metcalf’s $13 million salary for 2024 is also guaranteed on this day.  There is not much to discuss with this as Metcalf is not going to be cut.

Defensive Lineman Dre’Mont Jones has a chunk of his salary locked on this date as well.  He currently has an $11 million salary with no guarantees for 2024.  On this date though, $7 million of that salary becomes guaranteed.  This is a ‘point of no return’ for Jones, as cutting him after that salary guarantees that would cost the Seahawks $2.1 million against the cap.

As it is, cutting him prior to this day would only net them $4.84 million of cap room and incur $13.33 million of dead cap charges.  A post-June1 cut would only net them $4.51 million of cap room, so that is not a preferable solution either.  A trade is the most likely option if the front office deems Jones as a player they can do without.

Kicker Jason Myers’ 2024 salary of $3.63 million guarantees on this date as well.  There is no practical value to releasing him before this date, as the salary saved would not exceed the dead cap hit.

February 20: Franchise Tag Window Opens (Window Closes March 5)

This one is moot for the Seahawks.  They do not have any cap room to reserve for a tag.  OTC has their tag cost projections and the odds the Seahawks will use the tag this year are very slim.

February 27 – March 4: The Scouting Combine

Player testing, medical checks and interviews are a key part of the team building process for all teams.

However, the worst-kept secret in the NFL is this gathering affords General Managers, coaches and agents of current players an open excuse to be in proximity to one another.  Savvy professionals on all sides use this opportunity to gauge the salary and trade markets for their players under contract as well as potential free agents.  It is not a coincidence that after last year’s combine finished March 6, Geno Smith had his new Seahawks contract agreed to the next day.

The Seahawks have a lot of ground to cover in this area, with a lot of moving parts on their roster.  Information gathering at this event is crucial to inform decisions they will make this offseason.

March 10:  Exclusive Window for Unrestricted Free Agents Closes

I do not need to tell you; a lot of value may be in the balance here.  Leonard Williams not being signed by this date opens the door to him signing elsewhere and as a result the Seahawks will have paid an exorbitant price in a trade to rent his services for 10 games.

March 11-13: The Legal Tampering Window Opens

Teams and players can meet and negotiate contracts.  With very little cap room, the Seahawks will likely either be very quiet or strike some low-level deals at this period.

However, a possibility exists that the team can sign a player and make a release or trade that opens the cap to cover that signing before the filing deadline.

March 13 1pm PST: The New League Year Begins

Trades, free agent signings and releases are processed by the league.

The Seahawks must be under the salary cap at this point.

It is important because another big event happens today…

Deadline to Tender Restricted Free Agents and Exclusive-Rights Free Agents

This needs to happen on this day and the Seahawks need the relevant cap room to have these tenders honored.

Simply put, tendering players keeps them from being unrestricted free agents, able to sign with any team without the Seahawks getting a chance for compensation.

Restricted Free Agents available to tender are Darrell Taylor and Michael Jackson.  Those will be two very interesting decisions.  Tackle Jake Curhan and Linebacker John Rhattigan are also RFA’s.

Keep in mind that RFA tenders are non-guaranteed.  They can rescind the tender and let the player hit free agency.  The biggest downside is they need cap space to hold those tenders.  Rescinding the tag opens that cap room back up.

Exclusive Rights Free Agents also need to be tendered and there will be some interesting team-building choices made there as well.  Defensive Lineman Myles Adams can be kept, as well as Offensive Linemen McLendon Curtis and Raiqwon O’Neal.  Those two were waiver claims and the Seahawks stashed them on their active roster all year in 2023.

March 18: Geno Smith Has a $9.6 million Roster Bonus Due

Another line in the sand when dealing with Smith’s contract and deciding what to do with him in 2024.

If the Seahawks cut him before Feb 16, this bonus disappears.

If they want to trade Smith, this roster bonus may be wielded by the acquiring team as a weapon to drive down the draft pick compensation in return.  At that point, the Seahawks will have to decide what they want.  If trading Smith is just a ‘moving on’ situation, or if they can live with his big number on the cap in 2024 without the assurance of a performance better than 2023.  They may trade eating some of that bonus in exchange for a better draft pick, like the Giants did when they got a second-round pick for eating almost $10 million of Leonard Williams’ contract.

Another factor teams can use to their advantage: cutting Geno Smith after March 18 represents almost $40 million in dead money.  That day is the point of no return for the Seahawks.

It is worth noting that had Smith achieved his $15 million of escalators, this roster bonus would be $24.6 million.  The point being, the Seahawks would have been forced to deal with this cap number and convert it to a signing bonus, renegotiate his contract or cut him loose.  The team knew that this day was coming no matter how Smith played in 2023.  I have no doubt that John Schneider has a plan in place for Smith.

What that plan is, we will need to wait and see.

March 24-27: League Meeting

Another opportunity to network and feel out trade and draft options among their fellow teams.

April 1:  First Day of Offseason Workouts

The Seahawks get the early workout benefit because they have a new coach.

April 25-27:  The Draft

A prime chance to shape the future of this roster with Schneider as the GM and Macdonald as the coach.  Keep in mind, rookie salaries do not hit the salary cap until their contracts are signed.

June 1:  Players Cut with a Post-June1 Designation Come Off the Roster and the Salary Cap Savings is Realized

Teams like Seattle with little cap room in February and March look forward to this day.  They gain cap space and can make official moves that push the roster forward, like signing their draft picks to contracts and making those late-summer moves that receive little fanfare but can make a real difference in their season.

First Week of the NFL Season

Vested veterans with large non-guaranteed salaries have their 2024 salary number guaranteed.  This would include players such as Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams and Tyler Lockett.

It is going to be a very busy offseason for the team.

Decisions are going to have to be made one after the other.

It is possible that by this time next month, we will have an idea of where the Seahawks are heading at the Quarterback position.  Also, whether they have a real, vested interest in returning some of their top players back to the team in 2024 — and who they will move on from as they reshape the roster.

This is my first attempt at a Seahawks seven round projection. There are two central thoughts in this mock that I wanted to focus on:

1. I think John Schneider is itching to draft a quarterback

2. I think acquiring more stock will be seen as a priority

On the first one, I have a strong hunch about this. I think Schneider’s lukewarm words about Geno Smith at his press conference were revealing. I believe he has been eager to draft a new signal caller for some time, even during Russell Wilson’s time in Seattle.

Now that he is in charge I think his vision for the offense will be explosive plays, getting the most out of D.K. Metcalf and an aggressive, point-scoring unit. I know people are talking about Mike Macdonald, as a defensive coach, perhaps wanting to resort to running the ball and adopting a conservative style. I don’t agree. Baltimore had a lot of success because their offense was aggressive, they regularly played with a lead and that significantly helped the defense. I suspect that will be the mentality in Seattle.

I think there are quarterbacks in this class who will appeal to Schneider, while also acknowledging that the range for players like Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler is unpredictable.

On the second point, the Seahawks don’t have a second rounder because of the Leonard Williams trade. They do have two thirds. For the last two drafts, Schneider has had a treasure trove to work with due to the Wilson trade. I think he will seek to get more stock this year by moving around the board.

If there’s a can’t-miss player at #16 that could change. I think players like Jared Verse, for example, fit that profile. Assuming he and others like him are gone, I think the likelihood of moving down from #16 is strong. This is a good draft in the first four rounds. They have a number of holes and need picks to fill those holes with affordable talent.

The state of the roster pre-draft

In this projection, I have the Seahawks re-signing Leonard Williams to a big extension. Jordyn Brooks signs a one or two-year deal to try and bolster his stock under the leadership of the man who elevated Patrick Queen. I also have the Seahawks retaining Noah Fant, given the paucity of tight end alternatives in the draft and free agency. Drew Lock is retained.

Jamal Adams is cut to save money and there are other savings, outlined in my piece a few days ago. This includes trading Geno Smith before March 20th. I have them dealing him to the Steelers, who must know Kenny Pickett isn’t the answer. They’re already talking about trading for a quarterback. The Seahawks have very little leverage in negotiations due to the March 20th deadline, when his contract locks in to Seattle’s cap. That is the latest they can deal Smith to get the $13.8m saving. As such, they can’t get much more than a day three pick — with the Steelers giving them a fourth rounder (#120).

You might argue that’s not much compensation but if Schneider’s preference is to move off Smith and draft a quarterback anyway, getting anything in return would be a bonus. He does also turn 34-years-old this year.

The seven-round mock

Round 1 — #16 — the Seahawks trade down

I have the Seahawks moving down nine spots in a deal with the Green Bay Packers. They deal the 16th pick to Green Bay for the 25th pick and 58th pick. The trade makes sense per the trade chart, because Seattle’s pick costs 1000 points and Green Bay’s two picks cost 1050. The Packers also have two second rounders so they can afford to be aggressive. They move up because the mid-first round is going to be the back-end of where the top offensive tackles come off the board. This is a key need for the Packers and they can’t afford to wait. They move up for Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt — two left tackle prospects who are a bit over-hyped by the media and could be available at #16. Or, they could target Amarius Mims.

This trade gets the Seahawks back into the second round.

Round 1 — #25 — the Seahawks trade down (again)

Yep, we’re back to those days when people used to complain about the Seahawks constantly trading down. There’s method behind the madness though. In this scenario, Schneider has had his eye on a group of players all along at a particular position. They’re all still on the board, so he feels confident moving down four more spots to get further stock.

The Seahawks deal the #25 and #150 picks to Detroit for #29 and #92. Per the trade chart, Seattle’s two picks are worth 751 points and Detroit’s two picks are worth 752 points. Essentially, the Seahawks swap a fifth rounder for another third rounder. Given the draft class drops off after round four, this isn’t a big issue. For the Lions, it enables them to aggressively jump Arizona and Buffalo to get the defensive back they want — with a run ongoing in this range.

So far the Seahawks have completed two trades, gaining #58 (round two) and swapping #150 (round five) for #92 (round three).

Round 1 — #29 — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)

I think Schneider might have interest in both of the big-name PAC-12 quarterbacks but Penix Jr is the one with the arm talent to be a crucial difference maker and ’tilt the field’. He is far from a flawless prospect and I’ve written many articles detailing some of the issues, including after watching him live. However — you can’t avoid the fact that he has a golden arm comparable to the likes of Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, two players Schneider absolutely wanted to draft.

If it’s Seattle’s intention, and I think it is, to feature an explosive, aggressive offense, Penix Jr fits the mould. Yes, he will have stretches where the short/intermediate accuracy is off and drives will stall. Yet he will also be a threat to be a big play on every snap. If you can produce a complementary running game to bring the safeties up, you could have the makings of a top-tier explosive offense.

The fact that the Seahawks are interested in hiring Ryan Grubb as offensive coordinator adds to the intrigue. It’s not a given they’d seek to pair them together but it’s also pretty easy to make the connection. Penix Jr and Grubb had a good working relationship at UW.

I think the Seahawks could potentially be interested in Bo Nix and Spencer Rattler too, perhaps even J.J. McCarthy (although I think his physical limitations might be an issue for Schneider). I get the sense most Seahawks fans want to focus only on the trenches with the early picks but having studied the draft class in great detail on the whole, there are plenty of options stretching into round three. I would suggest the difference between the mid-to-late first round O-liners and the day two O-liners is not that significant, it’s an excellent class. And while I really believe it’s vital to invest in the offensive and defensive lines, it’s also critical the Seahawks find a long term quarterback option.

I will probably look at a scenario down the line where the Seahawks trade down a bit from #16, take an O-liner, then maybe move up with a newly acquired round two pick to get a QB.

Round 2 — #58 — Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)

This is the pick acquired from Green Bay. I don’t expect the Seahawks to go chasing Baltimore’s big name free agents, in part because they don’t have the cap space to do so. I think instead they’ll set out to find their own versions. Jenkins could be viewed as a potential Justin Madubuike alternative.

The two players share a lot of similarities. Madubuike was physically brilliant and a blog favourite. He ran a 4.83 forty and a 1.73 10-yard split, highlighting his impressive upside. There were some concerns about his consistency and size (6-3, 293lbs) and he lasted into round three, despite many projecting a second round range.

Jenkins shares a similar profile. He’s extremely athletic and reportedly is capable of running a 4.33 shuttle and a 7.16 three-cone (Madubuike ran a 7.37). He’s undersized having mostly played in the 280’s and 290’s until this year where he topped 300lbs. His play on the field has at times been underwhelming and inconsistent. However, as with Madubuike, the talent is there.

Jenkins is of good character and that is a big factor for the Seahawks. Mike Macdonald will know all about him from his Michigan days. His dad and uncle both played at a good level in the league. I watched a video recently (see below) with his uncle Cullen Jenkins and he had a Seahawks helmet in his house, randomly, signed by Walter Jones, Mack Strong and others from that Super Bowl XL era. I wonder if Steve Hutchinson, another former Michigan man from that group, might have good intel on Jenkins through the family.

An alternative to Jenkins could be Clemson’s Ruke Orhorhoro. If Jenkins measures with shorter arms, Orhorhoro (who has great length with 34-inch arms) could be a viable option instead. He’s 6-3 and 288lbs and plays with a lot of power, quickness and intensity. He was a more impactful player in college but arguably has a lower ceiling.

Round 3 — #78 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)

This pick is why I don’t feel that passionately about having to go O-line in round one. Zinter is, for me, one of the absolute finest linemen in the class. I thought he was the best guard I saw in 2023, playing with an old-school mentality. You’re not going to be wowed by any testing results here but he’s going to get the job done up front. Watching him, I thought he screamed +8 year starter (at least) in the league.

He’s available here because he suffered a bad injury against Ohio State. By all accounts he’s recovering well from a broken leg and is expected to be back before next season. That will likely impact his stock and could mean a top-50 talent lasts into round three. If that happens, some team is going to get a stud. He is a plug-and-play guard who will elevate an offensive line in year one. Yes, he’ll need to go through all of the medical checks before the draft. However, everything from his brawling style of play, the way he attacks opponents right off the snap, loves to get up to the second level, can mix it up in the running game and tie down his side in pass protection makes Zinter a home-run pick.

I think he’s potentially as good as any interior lineman in this class and he could be available at a discount price. Furthermore, he is a high character player loved by team mates. Plus, it’s another Michigan player. I suspect both Macdonald and Hutchinson will know all about him. And he’s played with Olu Oluwatimi.

Round 3 — #81 — Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)

Mustapha might not have Kyle Hamilton’s size but his playing style is ideally suited to a similar role in Macdonald’s defense. Here’s what I said in yesterday’s article:

I was wowed when I watched tape of Mustapha the week before the Senior Bowl and immediately placed him on the board as my highest ranked safety with a second round grade. He has an outstanding mix of range, quickness, hitting ability, power and he’s versatile enough to play different roles at safety (free, strong, nickel). He doesn’t have Kyle Hamilton’s size (5-10, 210lbs) but I believe he can fill that void if Macdonald is looking for that type of player. He needs to sharpen up schematically to stick at free safety because he does give up some plays. Initially I would suggest putting him at strong while he develops, in place of Jamal Adams. Yet the potential is there for Mustapaha to be a top-tier safety. From a character point of view he is first-rate with an engaging personality, he was a team-captain and he would perfectly fit Seattle’s desire for a high-character individual. He could be available in round three and quickly work into a starting role.

Mustapha is one of the more underrated players in the draft.

Round 3 — #92 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)

This is the pick acquired from Detroit. In this projection I have the Seahawks re-signing Jordyn Brooks. He needs a partner though and Watson, for me, is a strong candidate. Here’s what I wrote about him yesterday:

On tape, he’s an ideally sized physical machine — capable of playing the MIKE or WILL. He can drop in coverage to take away throwing lanes but he can also fly to the ball-carrier and play sideline-to-sideline. Watson, if given an opportunity, will absolutely hammer opponents and possesses the big-hitting skills Seattle’s defense has missed in recent years. There’s a good example on tape from last year where he chases down and blasts Bryce Young. There’s an old-school style to his play, with the traits of a modern day linebacker. He can play in attack-mode as a pass-rusher and had 10 sacks in 2023 and totalled 21 sacks in his last three seasons. He led the Mississippi State defense and was the one to make the calls on the field and adjust. Watson is a heart-and-soul player very capable of developing into an impact player and leader. If you can get him in the third or fourth round range, he could be a steal. If he runs a good short-shuttle and 10-yard split, watch out.

As with Mustapha, Watson is one of the more underrated players in the draft.

Round 4 — #118 — Austin Booker (DE, Kansas)

I’d suggest Darrell Taylor’s days are numbered in Seattle. He’s shown flashes of pass-rushing quality but I’m not convinced he’s disciplined enough for Macdonald’s scheme and he’s been a liability too often. Keeping him as a RFA feels unlikely. If they move on, though, they’ll need a replacement. Macdonald might prefer to bring a veteran in — he had great success with Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy — and that would open up the possibility for the Seahawks to return to their ‘picking a receiver in round four’ ways. If not, Booker would be a strong option here.

There are lots of things he has to work on. He needs to fill out a bit and get stronger. However, if we’re using the Ron Wolf approach of focusing on what a player can do, here’s what he is. Firstly — he has great length (34 inch arms) and there’s evidence on tape of him bench-pressing tackles to keep his frame clean and keep his eyes on the ball-carrier, disengaging and making plays vs the run. He can win with speed and bend off the edge — flashing incredible balance to round tackles. He has quickness and occasionally wins with power. There is plenty to work with here.

Round 4 — #120 — Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)

This is the pick acquired from the Steelers for Geno Smith. The Shrine Bowl brought McMahon to my attention and I produced this write up after studying him closely:

He showed choppy feet to keep setting and anchoring against interior rushers. He consistently got his hands inside and in the right spot and because he’s a smaller blocker (6-2, 295lbs) he won many leverage battles. Then, with his strong back and connected feet, he just controlled. There were occasions during scrimmage where he released up to the second level and sealed running lanes. He also did a good job turning opponents off the snap. His angles were good and he’s scrappy — he’s just a pain in the arse to disengage from. McMahon can reportedly jump a 32-inch vertical so he’s explosive. He speaks well, again — typical of an intelligent, determined center. I’ve got him in round three with the expectation he could be available later at a bargain price.

McMahon has the potential to be as good as the bigger names in this center class, which is deep. I think he could quickly compete with Oluwatimi to start and you’d have two strong, young options competing to be the long-term starter.

Round 6 — #193 — Ainias Smith (WR, Texas A&M)

There are electric qualities to Smith as a receiver but the main reason I’m including him here is as a return man. It’s far too long since the Seahawks had a legit threat returning kick-offs and punts. Smith would be an immediate contributor in that regard, with the chance to work his way into seeing some playing time as a receiver down the line.

Round 7 — #232 — Jack Westover (TE, Washington)

The Seahawks are going to need to find some depth at tight end and while Westover might not be the most conventional NFL TE, he consistently showed a clutch gene during his time at Washington. Penix Jr frequently made him work for key conversions and he always delivered. A team-first type who could develop a role on special teams quickly and act as a third-down option.

Full draft class

R1 — Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
R2 — Kris Jenkins (DT, Michigan)
R3 — Zak Zinter (G, Michigan)
R3 — Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
R3 — Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
R4 — Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
R4 — Austin Booker (DE, Kansas)
R6 — Ainias Smith (WR, Texas A&M)
R7 — Jack Westover (TE, Washington)

I think all of these players could contribute quickly with multiple having the potential to be plus starters. Let me know your thoughts on the haul in the comments section.

Finally, I posted a video on my channel discussing the offensive coordinator search. Check it out by clicking here.

I promised an updated horizontal board after the Senior Bowl and here it is. It’s based on performances in Mobile plus further tape study (eg where I didn’t have a player on the board pre-Senior Bowl but have now watched enough to put them on the grid). I’ve also worked on some of the players who excelled at the Shrine Game. The new board has 199 players graded. The next update will probably come after the combine.

You can click the board below to enlarge. Then, I’ve listed some of the players I think ‘fit’ the Seahawks following the appointment of Mike Macdonald as Head Coach, there are notes on ‘risers and sliders’ and I spend some time discussing the quarterbacks.

Potential Seahawks targets

I was intrigued by this Reddit post that was doing the rounds last week, detailing a lot of useful information about Mike Macdonald and the Ravens.

I think it’s also important to remember that in the last two drafts the Seahawks have doubled down on character, with John Schneider talking about the importance of that aspect of evaluation and clarifying what a ‘Seahawk’ is.

The players below tick that box, fit the scheme which Macdonald may implement and could fill potential needs.

Malik Mustapha (S, Wake Forest)
I was wowed when I watched tape of Mustapha the week before the Senior Bowl and immediately placed him on the board as my highest ranked safety with a second round grade. He has an outstanding mix of range, quickness, hitting ability, power and he’s versatile enough to play different roles at safety (free, strong, nickel). He doesn’t have Kyle Hamilton’s size (5-10, 210lbs) but I believe he can fill that void if Macdonald is looking for that type of player. He needs to sharpen up schematically to stick at free safety because he does give up some plays. Initially I would suggest putting him at strong while he develops, in place of Jamal Adams. Yet the potential is there for Mustapaha to be a top-tier safety. From a character point of view he is first-rate with an engaging personality, he was a team-captain and he would perfectly fit Seattle’s desire for a high-character individual. He could be available in round three and quickly work into a starting role.

Nathaniel Watson (LB, Mississippi State)
I wish I’d studied Watson sooner. I watched him after hearing some positive reviews on day one of the Senior Bowl. On tape, he’s an ideally sized physical machine — capable of playing the MIKE or WILL. He can drop in coverage to take away throwing lanes but he can also fly to the ball-carrier and play sideline-to-sideline. Watson, if given an opportunity, will absolutely hammer opponents and possesses the big-hitting skills Seattle’s defense has missed in recent years. There’s a good example on tape from last year where he chases down and blasts Bryce Young. There’s an old-school style to his play, with the traits of a modern day linebacker. He can play in attack-mode as a pass-rusher and had 10 sacks in 2023 and totalled 21 sacks in his last three seasons. He led the Mississippi State defense and was the one to make the calls on the field and adjust. Watson is a heart-and-soul player very capable of developing into an impact player and leader. If you can get him in the third or fourth round range, he could be a steal. If he runs a good short-shuttle and 10-yard split, watch out.

Jackson Powers-Johnson (C, Oregon)
JPJ was just born to be a center. You only have to look at his frame, he’s a big square block. Yet you wouldn’t think he was 334lbs — he carries the weight so well and athletically he is exceptional. His balance when engaged is different level. There are examples of him on tape running downfield with ease, seeking out people to block. He can do everything well — turn defenders to open lanes, get his angles right to be in position to control, he recovers and adjusts well when he loses leverage initially, he has a strong back to plant the anchor, you can pull him and get him on the move and he makes it look easy, he reaches up to the second level, he attacks defenders early off the snap and gets into their pad-level to be the aggressor. He’s a good short-shuttle away from being a possible lock to go no lower than the Dolphins at #21 or Cowboys at #24. Character wise, he’s exactly what you’d expect from a center. This is a nice deep class at the position but JPJ has separated.

Luke McCaffrey (WR, Rice)
If the Seahawks part ways with Tyler Lockett this off-season, McCaffrey could be a ready-made replacement. Watching him during practise in Mobile, he had the same kind of subtle, gliding movements Lockett has to get open. He also has that same savviness and consistency and you can tell he’s an intelligent player. I don’t know if he can run a 4.40 like Lockett but he has the bloodlines to do it. As you’d expect given his deep NFL roots, he’s all football and there are zero character concerns. I think he’s another player who could be available in the third round range who provides tremendous value for whoever takes him.

Dylan McMahon (C, NC State)
I was able to watch some of the Shrine Bowl highlights and the one player who stood out the most was McMahon. He showed choppy feet to keep setting and anchoring against interior rushers. He consistently got his hands inside and in the right spot and because he’s a smaller blocker (6-2, 295lbs) he won many leverage battles. Then, with his strong back and connected feet, he just controlled. There were occasions during scrimmage where he released up to the second level and sealed running lanes. He also did a good job turning opponents off the snap. His angles were good and he’s scrappy — he’s just a pain in the arse to disengage from. McMahon can reportedly jump a 32-inch vertical so he’s explosive. He speaks well, again — typical of an intelligent, determined center. I’ve got him in round three with the expectation he could be available later at a bargain price.

McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
If the Seahawks need a bigger defender to anchor their line, a lot of people are going to look to the flashier T’Vondre Sweat. I can see why — he’s a big name with incredible athleticism for his size. I do think, however, that Sweat’s weight is an issue. His conditioning wasn’t always great at Texas and they basically had to kick his arse into gear. Finally, in his last season, the light switched on and he delivered on his potential. But it was a bit of a battle until this point. The fact he refused to weigh-in at the Senior Bowl speaks to the problem. I’d rather focus on Jackson instead — the emotional leader of Texas A&M with no such baggage. He is a fiery, tone-setting defender with great size and the length/height to win many leverage battles (6-1, 331lbs, 33-inch arms). In Mobile he consistently drove blockers back into the pocket. He’s been a blog favourite for months so I already knew on tape that he can disrupt and not just carry blocks. McKinley is a physical, total-football player who can be a productive plus nose tackle for a long time.

Emani Bailey (RB, TCU)
I was blown away by his performance in the Senior Bowl game. Bailey is short but stocky with a 5-7, 210lbs frame. He does a really good job making the first man miss to get yardage. He can run through contact and based on tape evidence, you only have to watch for a couple of minutes to see him breaking tackles and finishing every run. Bailey is incredibly tough and physical but he also has the footwork and agility to go with it. He’s shifty to make people miss in the open field and he has enough acceleration to turn a good run into a great run. If he gets an opportunity to bounce outside he does it effectively and with no wasted motion, before bursting upfield. He runs good, crisp routes as a receiver and shows good hands. He can carve out a role very quickly as a third down back, with the potential to be a three-down runner in time. I want this guy on the team. Get him on the team as RB3.

There are other players I could list here as potential targets. As noted below, I think some of the quarterbacks fit Seattle. Payton Wilson the linebacker at NC State is exactly the kind of intense, play-every-snap-like-it’s-your-last prospect they could be really interested in. There are athletic defensive tackles — including Kris Jenkins at Michigan, who Macdonald will be familiar with. There are other linebackers including another Michigan man — Junior Colson — plus Jeremiah Trotter, Edgerrin Cooper and Cedric Gray that you can well imagine fitting the bill. Ladd McConkey feels like a Schneider-type player and I’d love to think offensive linemen like Zak Zinter, Graham Barton, Sedrick Van Pran, Zach Frazier and Roger Rosengarten would be considered too.

I’m told Ja’Lynn Polk is highly competitive with incredible character, so he could be a real value option. Two other Husky skill-players in Jalen McMillan and Dillon Johnson could also last longer than they should given their talent.

At #16, if either of Jared Verse or Chop Robinson last, sticking and picking might be the best move as both players have exciting pro-potential. I’d even consider throwing Quinyon Mitchell into the mix, given his blend of athleticism, swagger, physicality and ball-playing ability.

There are lots of players in this draft class and ample opportunity for the Seahawks to kick off their new era in style.

Key risers on the board

I decided to put Oregon State tackle Taliese Fuaga in the blue-chip category. From the minute I watched him during the season, he looked special. A physical monster who absorbs opponents when he makes contact, yet he has the footwork untypical of a man his size to get into position to connect in the first place. He won’t get out of the top-10, he dominated at the Senior Bowl and for me is the top tackle in the draft.

Missouri defensive end Darius Robinson had a great week and I’ve moved him up to round two. He’s getting first round buzz but I would offer some caution here. Robinson showed he can play across the line using power and technique. However, on tape and in the scrimmage you see a common occurrence. Robinson is a nearly-man. He’s nearly there to make the play a lot of the time. He’s more disruptive than productive. I think teams will value his frame, toughness, consistency and ability to challenge blockers but without amazing testing, I think he’s more of a top-45 pick than top-20.

Quinyon Mitchell was the star of the Senior Bowl for me and I’ve moved him into the first round range. I think he’ll be the first cornerback off the board. Jackson Powers-Johnson is also now in that grading area. Meanwhile, receivers Ladd McConkey and Roman Wilson received a boost, as did tight end Ben Sinnott.

Roger Rosengarten had an outstanding week and although I haven’t moved him into round one, I see him as a very likely top-45 pick.

Players who dropped

It was hard to see Jacob Cowing weigh-in at 165lbs then not make an enormous impression. If you’re that small, you need to be really good and I thought he was just OK in Mobile.

I moved Patrick Paul into round three. His technical flaws were glaring, as he kept spreading out his arms before making contact, exposing his chest way too much. It looks like a bad habit he’ll struggle to kick. Brandon Coleman didn’t play that well at guard, which is his likely position in the NFL. Charles Turner, a blog favourite, had a great first day but struggled after that. I’ve moved him into round three.

Kalen King had a really poor Senior Bowl and I’ve moved him deep into day three.

Thoughts on the quarterbacks

I have to say, I’ve heard and read a lot of inaccurate stuff about the quarterback performances in Mobile last week. As I said in my review, they all did OK. Nobody struggled. Nobody stood out. As Tony Pauline often says, the Senior Bowl can be a ‘king maker’ at the position. No kings were crowned this year and I’m not sure anyone did that much to shift their stock.

This is what I think about the class — and this is based on watching 18+ games on each of these players.

Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. It’s been obvious for two years. He is exceptionally talented and despite people suggesting otherwise, nobody has come close to knocking him off that perch. I’m not convinced Chicago and Shane Waldron are the match to unlock his limitless potential but that is almost certainly where he will begin his career.

Jayden Daniels is QB2. He is incredibly dynamic as a deep-ball passer and as a runner/playmaker. He will stretch teams in many different ways. He doesn’t have quite the lightning arm and running ability of Lamar Jackson but he’s not a million miles behind — and I’d argue he shows better touch and accuracy as a passer than Jackson did at Louisville. He will almost certainly be taken second overall by Washington I think.

Drake Maye, as I’ve said for over a year, is overrated. That doesn’t mean he’s bad. He isn’t. But the talk of him being the #1 pick was ridiculous and all of the people pedalling that should fess up before they ultimately return to Caleb Williams being the no-brainer choice over the coming weeks. He has physical tools, surprising mobility and creativity for his size and he can be a playmaker. He also takes too many ill-advised risks, makes too many errors and was outplayed by other quarterbacks in his time at UNC. Teams will be thoroughly mixed on him. I don’t think he’s a shoe-in to go third overall at all. He won’t drop deep into round one but it won’t be a surprise if he gets to #8. Josh Allen was a better prospect and he lasted to #7.

Then you have a group of four that are incredibly hard to place in terms of draft range. I can imagine Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr, Spencer Rattler and J.J. McCarthy all going very early. I can also imagine all four lasting into day two and in some cases, well into round three.

I’ll get McCarthy out of the way. I just don’t see it on tape. There’s nothing special about his game, he’s a light quarterback and he needs to add strength, particularly with his arm. I think he’s best suited to be drafted for a specific system that requires doing what you’re asked, rather than someone who is going to be an explosive downfield passer and difference maker. I have him in round three but virtually everyone assumes he will go in round one. I wouldn’t do it.

Onto Nix. Let’s just park the Oregon offense talk for a minute and talk about what he’s shown he is capable of. He can drive the ball downfield with great velocity and accuracy. He threw a flea-flicker at the Senior Bowl 60-yards on the money:

Great ball from Bo Nix, but Tez Walker can’t haul it in

The UNC receiver’s had a rough week pic.twitter.com/u4rKfd1ilt

— Taylor Kyles (@tkyles39) February 3, 2024

That’s not common. Nix has excellent physical tools and is not limited in any way with his arm. He can make the quirky, modern-day special plays — as shown by his across-the-body throw on the run and numerous other big-time efforts while on the move. He’s shown he can throw accurately over the middle while also keeping an offense on the go, on time and he has helped elevate his team. There are zero character concerns. He has a good, solid frame with reasonable height (6-2) and he showed a great release in Mobile which is quick and will stand him in good stead at the next level.

For all of these reasons, it’s very possible he could be a high pick. Some teams will be concerned about how he fared at Auburn, they’ll consider the extreme user-friendly offense in Oregon, they’ll look at the occasions where he did have patches in games where things stalled. This is why I have him in round two. But the truth is, there are plenty of things to like about Nix and I think, as with Maye, some will like him a lot and others less so. His range could be #11 with Minnesota to #45 New Orleans. Nothing in-between that would shock me. It really is going to come down to how much you believe in the philosophy of focusing on what a player can do. But anyone saying he ‘sucks’ or ‘belongs in round four’ is talking out of their backside. There are tools to work with here and they carry value.

With Michael Penix Jr, his arm talent is remarkable. I think it’s a bit disappointing he didn’t let it rip in Mobile. I didn’t see one ‘wow’ throw all week and yet we know he can do it. Maybe the coaches could’ve got him and Nix to do a few deep-balls at the end of practise? They dialled that flea-flicker up in the game for Nix, I guess.

That said, on tape there’s ample evidence anyway. Penix Jr’s arm compares favourably to any of the high-profile rockets we’ve seen in recent years. Patrick Mahomes’ arm talent was no more spectacular at Texas Tech. In fact, you could make a case that Penix Jr’s best 10 throws at Washington were at least on par with Mahomes’ 10 best in college. I’m not sure anyone will top the pro-day Josh Allen had but Penix Jr is in that company. It’s not just the depth of throw either — it’s the complexity of the throws. He was delivering layered passes between defenders 30-35 yards downfield that most people can’t make after five years in the league.

Now, as discussed a lot during the season, he also had a long stretch where his play was not very good. His completion percentage sank, his play dipped considerably and there were games where he looked quite mediocre, short of the occasional explosive pick-me-up. There are times where you feel like he needs to constantly be a big-play quarterback and if the explosives aren’t there, I’m not sure he can manipulate a defense on the shorter/intermediate range. He might be relying on a good running game to be able to consistently get the looks downfield he wants.

There’s also the injury history, he doesn’t have anything like a prototype frame and the left-handed thing does matter, because it forces a lot of transition — not just structurally to the offense but your receivers and other players have to get used to it too. Again, it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if someone falls in love with Penix Jr’s physical tools and wants to build an explosive, attack-minded offense that can live with several 50% completion days provided he’s able to get the chunk yards to go with it. Equally, the concerns might push him into the #50-70 range where he would, clearly, be well worth taking a chance on.

Finally Rattler. He might be the most naturally gifted in the class outside of Williams. He is such a talented thrower with a ‘born to do this’ style. He’s the only player of the group who has played in anything close to a pro-style offense or a pro-style environment behind South Carolina’s terrible O-line in the SEC. He still performed at a high level, limited mistakes in his final year, played within structure and showed he can create and improvise and make the big plays downfield.

I’ve been saying for a long time that he’ll go earlier than people think and it seems like the tide is turning nationally. From a pure talent standout, I think you could easily justify taking him ahead of Nix and Penix Jr. There are two things to raise though. Firstly, he looked small at the Senior Bowl. He was 6-0 and 219lbs so he has the bulk but he did look smaller with that height than say Nix at a similar weight. He is not a big, powerful quarterback — even though his natural talent enables him to get the ball deep downfield. Secondly, he is going to be asked a lot of questions about his time at Oklahoma. He needs to own up, admit to his mistakes and prove he’s a different person. I believe he’s already there, based on what I’ve seen from him. Teams will need that reassurance though because this is a guy you’d be taking with the chance he becomes the key player within your franchise.

Rattler won’t go lower than round three if he handles the character questions well. Then it’ll be a case of how much higher can he go than that.

Nix, Penix Jr and Rattler are far better than Malik Willis going into the league, who many fawned over despite the quite obvious back-breaking flaws in his game. They are not, however, anywhere near as enticing or as upside-laden as Anthony Richardson. They could end up being viewed in a similar way to Will Levis, who had outstanding physical talent but lasted to pick #33. None of the three are ‘bad’ players, they all have redeeming qualities that justify faith that they can start in the NFL. For teams needing a QB, they are worth a shot.

Furthermore — all three can feature in the kind of offense that I think John Schneider wants to run. I also think he is itching to take a quarterback, as I keep saying, and I think he’s lukewarm on Geno Smith and might be inclined to launch this new era of Seahawks football with a new QB.

That could mean trading down first before taking one, or even taking one with their second pick after moving down, or some other kind of plan. Let’s just say this though — I’d seriously caution against ruling out the Seahawks drafting a quarterback this year.

Today I was on with the great Puck & Jim on KJR — if you missed it you can listen below, please check it out…