Category: Front Page News (Page 38 of 367)

Go on draft websites or peruse ‘draft twitter’ and you see a rarely challenged consensus.

The top two quarterbacks are C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. Barely anyone tries to offer a different take.

Slowly but surely, however, the tide is starting to change.

For starters, Mel Kiper listed Will Levis as his second ranked quarterback, behind Stroud. Now, there’s this report from Levis-sceptic Tony Pauline:

If you talk with scouts, it seems that Will Levis of Kentucky is the signal-caller they are most enamored with. He’s a Josh Allen type in the sense he’s big, athletic, and has a major league arm but will need proper coaching and development.

One league insider told me Bryce Young and CJ Stroud are rated higher on Draft Twitter than they are in the scouting community. Young’s size and lack of arm strength are a concern, and Stroud’s inconsistency in the short passing game has raised some red flags.

What has felt obvious for some time is finally developing into a new consensus.

Levis isn’t the perfect prospect and I’ve never tried to argue he is. I watched all of his 2021 games during the summer and I’ve watched (and written up) all of his 2022 games so far.

Clearly there are still some moments where his footwork becomes slightly lazy and it’s led to a couple of avoidable turnovers. There was a moment against Ole Miss last week where he saw a 1v1 in the red zone he liked, rushed the snap and a potential game-winning touchdown was taken off the board because one of his receivers didn’t have time to get set.

Yet Pauline’s report makes total sense.

I’m going to try not to keep repeating myself because it’ll become very dull and it’s only October 7th. We have months of debate ahead of us. However, this warrants a quick review.

Teams can easily turn on the Kentucky tape and see transferable pointers. They can see a player who is succeeding on a team that isn’t loaded with 5-star recruits. Levis plays behind a suspect offensive line and has been sacked 18 times in five games.

He’s facing adversity.

He played for Liam Coen last season, the current LA Rams offensive coordinator. This year he’s running Kyle Shanahan’s offense because Rich Scangarello replaced Coen. Within this scheme he takes snaps under center, he makes the reads and adjustments at the line, there is evidence of going through three progressions and he is functioning like a pro.

Then there are the traits. Levis is a burly 6-3 and 232lbs. He is an outstanding athlete. At SPARQ he jumped a 36 inch vertical, ran a 4.10 short shuttle and delivered a whopping total score of 123.27. He has a big arm and his throwing base — when he avoids the occasional lapse — is sound and secure with both feet on the turf, his shoulders square to the target and he can do all the fancy modern throws off-platform and on the run.

Plus, he has tremendous character and no red flags.

Everything here is factual and will be very appealing to NFL teams. Decision makers, when asked by their owner why they want to select Levis, can answer very easily.

He doesn’t have to have a flawless final season at Kentucky either. The basis for a high draft pick is not a Joe Burrow Heisman campaign, when he had the luxury of throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU.

Levis is getting it done and simply put, Stroud and Young cannot match any of the above.

That’s not to say they are bad players. They’re not bad players.

But look at Stroud. Here’s a player who gets to play behind a star-studded O-line, throwing to multiple first round receivers, with five-star running backs in the backfield. Before every snap, the coaches on the sideline make his reads for him and instruct him what to do.

That’s why you see interceptions like this:

Avery Young picks off CJ Stroud 👀

CFB Live Blog: https://t.co/LXPH5piOFM

pic.twitter.com/5SNbkFmOJv

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2022

You need to get off that target because nothing about the coverage says ‘throw the ball here’. When you’re essentially being told what to do pre-snap, however, this can happen.

Stroud doesn’t play in a pro-style offense. Ohio State has churned out a collection of very productive athletes at quarterback over the years and there’s a consistent trend that this environment is not transferable to NFL success. You don’t face any adversity and in the pro’s you have to make your reads, make the calls, lead the team and do it all behind a weaker offensive line with playmakers who aren’t going to win every 1v1.

Then there’s Bryce Young — a naturally talented passer and the Heisman winner from last season.

Yet he too benefits from the ‘Bama effect’. Aside from the games against Georgia — which are a fair contest — every other game he plays in, he’s playing an overmatched opponent. The line and skill players. The physicality and guidance. It’s all so far ahead of everyone else. It doesn’t make for an easy projection to the next level.

Then you have to account for his size. It’s long been confirmed, including by Todd McShay recently, that he’s a shade above 5-10 and around 185lbs. How do you project that to the next level? There isn’t anyone to compare to.

Let’s say he gets drafted by someone in the top-10 — presumably without a great supporting cast (or at least with a developing offense). Can he take the punishment that will come with playing on a bad team?

Only last week he suffered a shoulder injury. And look, injuries happen to big, physical quarterbacks too. But this question is going to linger with Young. You can’t blame teams for taking this into account when putting together the order on their draft board. They’d be negligent not to.

For all the good Young shows on tape (and there is a lot of good) there are also moments that seem all too familiar having watched a shorter quarterback playing in Seattle for some time. He bails on the pocket more often than people are noting. He had a horrendous interception on a needless scramble-and-heave a couple of weeks ago and the shoulder injury supposedly happened on a needless escape last week.

I’ve seen, every week, Levis stand in the pocket with pressure coming right at him. He’s stood tall, delivered a throw and taken a hit in the pocket. Some of his best throws have come in these situations this year.

That’s NFL football. That’s what teams want.

This is why when we get to April, we’re going to see a handful of teams fighting and clawing for Levis. It’s why he might end up going first overall. It’s why I think he’ll be QB1 on a lot of boards.

If the team picking first overall somehow doesn’t need a quarterback (which seems incredibly unlikely given the way the Jets and Jaguars are improving), there’ll be a scramble to move up and select him.

The Seahawks have the stock to make a move but whether it’s possible or not, we’ll see. I’m sure many people reading this — or speaking on Twitter — will determine it’s not worth it given the offensive performance so far. I would also remind people that Seattle’s offense feasted on a Lions defense as embarrassing as theirs. Before the Detroit game, the offense had produced three points in six second-half quarters. They were shut-out by the 49ers.

I’m not sure the Big-12 game last week was indicative of a team that no longer requires a long term answer at quarterback.

Let’s also not forget — Geno Smith isn’t even contracted to Seattle next year. Even this season, when he was presented with his only opportunity to start in the league, he delayed putting pen to paper because (presumably) he wasn’t totally satisfied with the terms. That signing took longer than most people expected.

NFL free agency starts in mid-March. Despite seemingly receiving very little interest elsewhere, these are the dates he officially signed with the team since initially joining in 2019:

2019 — May 15th
2020 — May 20th
2021 — April 22nd
2022 — April 22nd

So on two occasions he didn’t sign until two months after the league year started and on two occasions it was a month after. There may be other reasons for that (prioritising other positions ahead of backup QB) but it’s worth noting that even this year, it took until April 22nd to get a deal done.

As such, it might not be the easiest negotiation in the world if he continues to perform. It’s just something to remember. The ideal situation for this team remains having a talented young quarterback on a cheap contract with club-control for five years. We’ve seen how much that has benefited teams over the years.

Admittedly the Seahawks also have to get better on defense. Again, without wishing to repeat things I’ve already gone over a fair bit, the blue-chip defenders are simply not emerging within this draft class.

I would go as far to say that this might be the worst looking top-10 I’ve covered since starting the blog in 2008. You basically have Will Anderson who warrants a very high pick. The quarterbacks always get elevated. I’m not sure I’ve seen another player who warrants going that early.

I genuinely believe this is shaping up to be a draft where one very high pick (top-three) will be better than two firsts in the middle of round one. I don’t see a way to ‘fix’ this defense picking twice in an easily projectable 8-16 range.

I can’t see a single offensive lineman worthy of the top-10. The other defensive linemen are more 16-32 range types. There are no receivers playing well enough currently to warrant a top-10 pick. The top two cornerbacks for me (D.J. Turner & Kelee Ringo) aren’t being tested enough to pass judgement.

In 2020 you had Chase Young, Jeff Okudah, Andrew Thomas, Derrick Brown and Isaiah Simmons who were all big name college players who went, unsurprisingly, in the top-10. Then you had a handful of highly rated O-liners and some high-profile receivers follow shortly after. It enabled a Justin Herbert to trickle down to #6 overall. I suspect the same would happen in 2023 with C.J. Stroud if those types were in the draft next year. They aren’t, which increases the likelihood a QB-needy team will take him once Levis and Anderson are gone. Perhaps even before Anderson.

With every win the Seahawks move further away from the top picks but also, it’s hard to see how they pivot to improving the defense. Which is why, right now, I’d probably make the case for trading up.

The only plausible scenario I can imagine where you don’t — or feel comfortable not doing so — is if Anthony Richardson declares. I’ve watched all of his games for Florida and I’m well aware of his inconsistencies and mistakes. I also see a player with the physical potential to be special. To do what Josh Allen did — be an error-strewn rough diamond in college, need a couple of years in the pro’s then emerge as a superstar.

Richardson has that potential.

Allen was the seventh pick in 2018, with Buffalo trading up from #12 to get him. If Richardson declares — the Seahawks could pull a similar move. Then you have a player you can work with to be your future without perhaps needing to use multiple first round picks to get into the top two or three.

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This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen…

A discussion is warranted about the state of the salary cap next year and how the Seahawks can start looking at shaping the future of this team.

Why now?  Why not wait until the offseason to discuss this?  

There are things the Seahawks can do right now to strengthen their roster for 2023 and given the state of the team they need to start incorporating some of these decisions into their current game day roster and snap count allotments sooner rather than later.

We will dive into that in a moment.  Let’s start by looking at what they have to work with on the salary cap in 2023.

Where the Seahawks stand

According to Overthecap.com, the Seahawks currently have 33 players contracted on their roster and $34.037 million of effective cap space available for 2023.

What is “effective cap space”?  That is a projection OTC has done – they take the projected salary cap, considered the players the team has under contract and then add in the projected rookie pool cost based on the team’s current draft picks (the Seahawks have nine picks – a total of about $13.9 million of rookie salary) and then fill the rest of the 51-man roster with minimum-salary player slots as a placeholder exercise.  That number will fluctuate as the team’s 2023 draft picks change with their record (and Denver’s) as well as any personnel moves the Seahawks make.

We need to factor in a chunk of money for an injured reserve cushion, practice squad players and the Seahawks tend to carry a little free money to cover any players acquired after the bulk of the summer is over.  Call that about $6 million.

That brings us to about $28.037 million of “spendable” money for 2023.

That is an alarmingly low number for a team that does not have a quarterback under contract.  The expectation last offseason was the Seahawks would have nearly all of Wilson’s cap money set aside for 2023 to go shopping with. Maybe more.  In fact, they have a very modest amount to spend and several needs to address.

Where has the money gone?  That was Rob’s question this summer.  I recommend you have a look at the piece, as this article is a companion of sorts to that one and builds on the concerns Rob raised.

What will they need in 2023?

The Seahawks will need to fill these spots on their roster:

• A starting quarterback and a backup
• Replace or re-sign Rashaad Penny at running back
• Replace or re-sign Austin Blythe at center
• Replace or re-sign Poona Ford on the defensive line
• Replace or re-sign Jason Myers at kicker
• A linebacker to replace Cody Barton
• Pass rush help is always a need

That is by no means an exhaustive list.  Those are the key needs.

They will also need some important reserve pieces, such as a guard who can start at a moment’s notice, a third safety to plug into packages and a Travis Homer third down and special teams type.  Not to mention a veteran cornerback and perhaps a veteran wide receiver for depth.

So overall, $28 million of room is nowhere near the slush-fund that most of us envisioned when the Seahawks freed themselves of Russell Wilson’s big contract.  They will need to tread very carefully and spend wisely this offseason, something that has been a real challenge in recent years.

There is some good news to be had.  Of that list of starters they need to plug in, they can fill some of that with 2023 draft picks and keep that $28 million intact.  

A future quarterback from the draft is a must have.  Even if he does not start Week One.

It would also be hugely beneficial to once again have a very good draft and walk out with – at the very minimum – a starting center and a starting linebacker plus a running back and a defensive lineman you could work into the lineup.  They could look at drafting a kicker.

How they can help their future cap this season

The Seahawks should be applauded for making liberal use of their rookie class this season.  Charles Cross, Abe Lucas and Tariq Woolen are locked in as starters for the foreseeable future and are developing nicely.  Boye Mafe’s role on the defense is growing by the week.

But this team needs to keep pushing more of their young, cost-controlled players into the forefront of their lineup.

Pete Carroll must invest snaps in the back end of the roster on players that have a future with this team.  

This is an area where the Seahawks have not exploited their cap assets for maximum benefit in the last few seasons.  The roster has been littered with cheap talent that was sat on the sidelines in favor of vastly more expensive veteran signings that provided only marginally greater value.

For instance, last season the Seahawks frequently played Benson Mayowa ($4.6m cap hit) in favor of Alton Robinson ($0.867m cap hit) and yet they produced nearly the same results.

Marquise Blair was limited to a very spotty role in favor of Jamal Adams.

Colby Parkinson’s post-injury rookie year was practically non-existent due to Luke Willson being active for a few snaps on gameday in 2020.  He was then only targeted eight times last year.

Cody Barton was drafted to ease the workload of Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright.  That never materialized.

We are seeing the impact of these choices now.  

Robinson is still not fully known as a player in his third year, Blair tried and failed to convert into a nickel corner, Parkinson is just now displaying his skillset and has been a very nice addition to the tight end group in his third season and the team is discovering that Barton is a disaster in a role that requires much, much more than the spot start and mop-up duty they have given him in prior seasons.

It is up to this organization to commit to the future right now.  They have several players on the roster who could develop into real 2023 contributors given some snaps this year:

On offense:  Colby Parkinson, Phil Haynes, Dee Eskridge, Ken Walker

2023 is Parkinson’s last year of his rookie contract.  What a blessing that could be to the team if he could keep expanding his role and then give them 30-40 catches and 4-7 touchdowns at $1.17 million in 2023.  

Haynes is an unrestricted free agent next year.  The Seahawks thought enough of him to tender him at $2.5 million and he has some potential at both guard spots.  The obvious expensive veteran blocking him is Gabe Jackson.  Why not put Damien Lewis in Jackson’s spot and give Phil Haynes the left guard job and see what they can do with that setup?  Are they really getting so much more bang for their buck with Jackson in?  He does not have a future with Seattle beyond 2023, probably not even beyond 2022.

Eskridge has the same number of touches as Marquise Goodwin so far this year.  Why?  He is under contract through 2024 and Goodwin is not.  There is no argument – Eskridge should be getting more touches right now.  Yes, he appears brittle but that is exactly why you have Goodwin on the roster – to cover that possibility, not to block Eskridge’s development.

Ken Walker has 21 touches through 3 games.  Seven touches per game is not nearly enough for this team to make a confident decision about his impact and whether they should invest significant money in the 27-year-old Rashaad Penny in 2023.  I know it is early.  But given this team’s track record, time’s a-wasting.

On defense:  Ryan Neal, Coby Bryant at outside CB, Tre Brown and Alton Robinson

Ryan Neal has been a great utility player at the defensive back position and on special teams for the Seahawks.  They now have 13 games to see what he can do at the starting strong safety spot.  He is a Restricted Free Agent in 2023, so the team has control of him.  However, as an undrafted player, they get no compensation if another team offers Neal a contract the Seahawks do not want to match.  If they want to retain him, they may have to offer him enough money to scare other teams off.  Therefore, they need to determine right now if he can be worth it as more than a rotational player.  Why would they need to consider using him as a starter at strong safety in 2023?  You know why.

Coby Bryant has worked at nickel with Justin Coleman injured.  If they get Coleman back soon, could they get a look at Bryant at his natural LCB spot?  They might be hindering his development by trying him out at nickel after featuring mostly at LCB in his college career and working at his natural position extensively in training camp.

Brown and Robinson will need looks this year if and when they come off injured reserve.  The Seahawks will no doubt be cautious with them but they need to get on the field and show what they can do.  

Imagine the Seahawks going into 2023 with full confidence in Woolen, Brown, and Bryant?  Maybe Michael Jackson too.

Or having Robinson, Mafe, Taylor and Nwosu up to speed on the edges so they can focus precious resources on acquiring an inside pass rusher.

None of these players are being blocked by outstanding talents ahead of them on the roster.  They all have skills and traits the Seahawks like.

They are going to have to make some hard decisions this offseason.  Would it not be far easier to make some of those decisions if you have tried out your young players with enough actual game snaps to make the best evaluation you can?

This may require Pete Carroll to consider pausing his ‘Always Compete’ philosophy and giving players he might deem not immediately worthy more snaps and opportunities.  But there is a very strong argument to be made that a slight drop-off in quality temporarily could greatly benefit the team in the long run.  Like when they have a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract and have $60-80 million to spend in 2024 and will not need to flesh out the roster with expensive role players.

Areas where the Seahawks can pick up some cap space next year

There are some expensive veterans the Seahawks will need to take a hard look at and make some business decisions on this coming offseason.

The caveat being the team will take on some dead money for most and for all will need to replace that player on the roster.

Gabe Jackson has a $9.5 million cap hit.  $3 million of that is hitting their cap no matter what they do.  Picking up $6.5 million of cap room by cutting him seems a foregone conclusion given his age in 2023 (32), his play last year and so far this year and the fact that the Seahawks have options at his position between Damien Lewis, Jake Curhan and potentially Phil Haynes.  There is no deadline that would force a move before the league year starts.  They could assess their options in the free agent market and the draft and then decide.

Shelby Harris has a $12.27 milllion cap hit.  $3.27 million of that is hitting the cap no matter what they do.  There is $9 million of cap room available by cutting him.  They do have a bit of a deadline with Harris, as he has a $2 million roster bonus due March 22 – a week into free agency.  The Seahawks have options here.  They can make some other moves and see where they stand in the market before deciding on Harris.  Or they could negotiate him down.

Al Woods and Quinton Jefferson are in the same boat.  They would each cost the Seahawks about $2 million in dead cap to cut and would bring just under $4 million of cap room each.  Bryan Mone would bring about $2.79 million if cut with a $1 million cap hit.

Uchenna Nwosu is an interesting one to consider.  He has a big cap hit of $12.76 million next year.  They could cut or trade him and pick up $8.01 million of room but that seems unlikely given his excellent play so far.  They could go the other way and work out an extension if they see him as part of their long-term plans for the team.  There could be the opportunity to save say $2-4 million by spreading out the 2023 cap hit on such an extension.

Noah Fant has a $6.85 million cap hit as the Seahawks picked up his fifth-year option earlier this year.  It is all guaranteed salary – no dead cap money if they were to trade him.  If the Seahawks get a good look at Parkinson and Dissly continues his steadfast play, they could possibly deem Fant expendable and see what he could fetch in the trade market.  That would be a win-win as they could make fine use of the draft pick they get back and find all kinds of utility for that $6.85 million.  Or again, they could go the other way and extend him and realize some 2023 cap savings.

Quandre Diggs ($9.9 million savings / $8.2 million dead cap) and Will Dissly ($3.05 million savings / $6.2 million dead cap) seem like moot points at the moment, as they are firmly entrenched as part of the organization and culture in Seattle and would cost as much or more as they save.  Diggs will need to play much better to keep that conversation at bay though.

There is one more player we need to discuss in greater detail.  The elephant in the room.

We need to talk about Jamal Adams

How many times have we said or thought that in the past 2+ years?  This trade has been a pox on the franchise since it was announced.  

Where do the Seahawks currently stand on his contract?

He will have a cap hit of $18.11 million in 2023 between salary and accrued bonuses if they keep him on the roster with his contract intact.

There is $21.33 million of prorated bonus money that still needs to be accounted for if he is cut or traded this coming offseason.  On top of that, Adams has $2.56 million of salary that will guarantee on February 4, 2023.  It is guaranteed for injury, so unless Adams comes back from a torn quad this season (extremely unlikely), that money will be owed.

So that is a total of $23.89 million that would hit the cap if they cut him loose.

It is time to have the conversation.  The Seahawks need to be ready to move on from Jamal Adams.

He is incapable of staying healthy.  The last three seasons have ended prematurely due to serious injuries.  It appears to be getting worse.  This year, he could not get through one day of training camp before breaking his finger.  He could not get through one regular season game before tearing his quad.

What are the chances he stays healthy all year in 2023?  Very, very unlikely.  Will he even be fully recovered from his current injuries in time to play?

Cutting him with a $23.89 million dead cap next year is a painful hit.  Particularly when you consider they just swallowed $26 million on Russell Wilson this year.  With Wilson, they got a significant return in trade to soften the blow.  The only joy they would receive from cutting Adams is cleaning up their 2024 cap number.

But consider for a moment what is at stake if the Seahawks do not address his situation this coming offseason.  As a vested veteran, his $11 million salary for 2023 becomes guaranteed in Week One.  He could get injured again, spend most of the year in the trainer’s room, collecting his full salary and accruing that $18 million cap hit — and then the Seahawks would still have a remaining dead cap hit of $14.2 million in 2024 if they wanted to cut him then – making it a total sunk cost of $32.2 million.

Swallow $23.89 million now on your terms or take a chance you will need to swallow $32.2 million.

What is clear — the Seahawks need to address Adams’ contract before the start of the league year so they know what kind of space they have to work with.  

The options…

• Cut Adams outright.  That means all $23.89 million hits their cap in 2023 and they are clean going forward.  There is no cap saving in 2023.  In fact, that is about a $5.8 million extra hit on the cap, taking them to under $23 million of free spending room.  Doable — but that restricts your available room.
• Cut Adams with a June 1st designation.  This would split the dead cap between the next two years, with approximately $9.69 million hitting in 2023 and $14.2 million hitting in 2024.  This would open up $8.42 million for the team to spend in 2023 after June 1st.  They could use that money to better their 2023 team, or roll it into 2024 and use it to mitigate the damage of the $14.2 million dead cap.
• Contact Adams and initiate talks to renegotiate his contract.  Three seasons and three season-ending injuries at the very least warrants this approach.  The Seahawks would be foolhardy not to see the necessity of having the discussion.  They need to be prepared to part ways with Adams if they cannot get an equitable reduction in pay.

There is no way to really know how receptive Adams’ team would be to that discussion but there should be a fair possibility they can come to a compromise and reduce his 2023 cap hit sizably, which opens up more room to supplement the current roster and offers them protection in the high likelihood of another serious injury.

A trade is not a realistic option.  Adams will not be able to pass a physical until well into the summer and no team would want to give the Seahawks a draft pick for the privilege of taking on that massive contract for a player with his injury history.

Again, why are we talking about this now?

Adams is done for the season.  Only 15 snaps into his big extension.  It will be a hard pill to swallow, particularly when you consider the Seahawks could have had at least two or three rising young talents on the roster right now when they badly need them instead of a broken player who has provided very little benefit to the team in three seasons relative to the cost.

But laying out the options helps us to understand now – the Seahawks have some real decisions to make with this player.  The sooner we all grasp that, the better equipped we will be to understand the issues this team is facing in 2023.

This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams

Coming into the season, I really had only three main hopes for the Seahawks.

I wanted to see a foundation built through the young, new offensive line. I wanted to see the running game be consistent and productive. I wanted the defense to function and look like a unit that could be a strength going forward.

So far, we’re seeing positive signs with the O-line. The running game has been more miss than hit so far but hopefully the Detroit game is a sign of progress. The defense, however, has been an abomination.

I think there are two key problems.

Firstly — the scheme. As noted a few times over the last couple of weeks, it feels like a ‘Frankenstein’s Monster’ of ideas. You’ve got Clint Hurtt and Sean Desai and their background with Vic Fangio. And you’ve got Pete Carroll.

Increasingly it looks like a jumbled collection of compromises rather than a clear, focused plan. This isn’t a new thing under Carroll. Think back to when he basically ran the offense with Darrell Bevell and Tom Cable. Or last year when he retained Mike Solari despite appointing an offensive coordinator with a totally different blocking philosophy.

I’m sure there are examples where collaboration has worked and presumably that’s why Carroll dabbles in it. At the moment, however, it feels like the Seahawks would be better off with their Head Coach either just relinquishing control and letting Hurtt and Desai get on with the job, or he should insist on returning to his tried and trusted scheme and just get on with it.

The problem is — if he does that, it means training camp was virtually a waste of time learning the tweaks and changes. Plus, there’s barely any point having Hurtt and Desai in their roles if they’re going to be made to run another man’s scheme.

On the other hand, the current setup is destroying the production and form of players such as Darrell Taylor and Poona Ford — people they need to be performing. The linebackers are a walking disaster zone. Nothing is working.

Personally I think they have to resort to the Carroll defense. If nothing else — putting Taylor back at SAM/LEO as a kind of situational rusher will at least, hopefully, get him back on track. It’ll help Ford. They don’t have a Carlos Dunlap type any more which is an issue. It just feels like this simplified defense might make for fewer glaring errors.

The second problem is talent.

It’s not that the Seahawks are awful everywhere. They just don’t have any blue-chip studs or game-wreckers. They have young, unproven players and average (or worse) people on defense.

None of their defensive tackles create consistent interior pressure. None of their edge rushers are even at the level of a Frank Clark in 2018. Nobody on that D-line scares opponents, draws protection or can win consistently 1v1.

At cornerback — it’s great that Tariq Woolen has started well and there are rightly high hopes for the future. At the moment though, he’s a rookie. And the player across from him is Michael Jackson — or a collection of other no-name types. The Seahawks don’t have a top-tier corner they can currently rely on to shut down key opponents.

Josh Jones has been a liability and Quandre Diggs is a solid but unspectacular free safety and always has been.

The less said about the linebackers the better.

Most people can see the talent problem and increasingly it’s being suggested that with four picks in the first two rounds next year, Seattle’s draft focus should be defense, not quarterback.

That would be a huge, glaring error.

Firstly, as noted yesterday, it’s about the players actually available in this draft. Currently it’s really hard to find legit top-10 or first round picks, especially on defense. At quarterback — there are at least three (maybe four) players who legitimately can be graded high.

You can only play the hand you’re dealt. In the 2023 draft — it’s stacked up to go and get your quarterback of the future. That’s what the draft is offering you.

Besides — as well as Geno Smith is playing this year — he is not the future in Seattle. He is the present.

There’s only really Will Anderson who fits the bill as a legit top-10 pick and potential game-wrecker. I wish I could provide more names. It would make my life easier, writing a Seahawks Draft Blog, if the 2023 draft was loaded with blue-chippers.

Sadly — it isn’t.

Jalen Carter — often projected to the top-10 — has zero sacks and zero TFL’s in five games for Georgia. He is a solid defensive tackle worthy of the second half of round one but he’s not going to wreck games from the interior.

Bryan Bresee — who I really rate — is extremely agile and athletic for his size. He has the best chance, I think, of elevating into the top-10. However, he’s missed games recently after a family tragedy and when he has played, he has again looked more of a really solid defensive tackle rather than someone who is going to consistently collapse a pocket.

Michigan cornerback DJ Turner flashes talent but is rarely tested. It’s the same story for Georgia’s Kelee Ringo.

Mazi Smith — the top name on Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ is having a good year but is more of an athletic nose than an impact three-technique.

I think Clemson pass rusher Myles Murphy is a bit overrated but admittedly — he looked quicker than last year in the game against NC State and had an impact. I will continue to monitor him. His team mate K.J. Henry might be better. I also want to watch more of Michigan’s Mike Morris.

I really like Clemson linebacker Trenton Simpson but is he more of an athlete at this point best served in a blitz-heavy scheme than someone you want to lock down the middle of the field and play with consistency and discipline?

At the moment there’s no obvious Micah Parsons type in this class. No Devin White. Not even a Jamal Adams.

Unfortunately, it’s not going to be much easier to find solutions in free agency. Assuming the likes of Bradley Chubb, Roquan Smith, Jessie Bates and Da’Ron Payne are out of reach or franchised, there aren’t a ton of viable options set to reach the open market.

And please — no more big trades for veteran players.

It’s going to be up to Seattle to develop the players they’ve got, make intelligent additions and draft well. There are no quick fixes here.

The good news is that, like the 2022 draft, this looks like a class that is light at the top but could have some depth going into days two and three.

One player I really like and mentioned over the summer is Louisville linebacker Monty Montgomery. He’s tough, impactful, loves a hit and has started to come along after a slow start to the season with four TFL’s, two sacks and an interception. He won’t be a high pick but he’s someone to monitor with eventual starting potential at the next level. Nobody talks about him — which is fine. Let him fly under the radar. I get the feeling teams will love his play.

Players keep flashing at safety when I’m doing the quarterback scouting. Utah State’s Michigan transfer Hunter Reynolds plays fast and quick and can hit. John Torchio was a rare bright spot for Wisconsin in a miserable game against Ohio State — playing with range, physicality and making a great interception.

Georgia’s Christopher Smith is an easy player to like. He plays with instinct and toughness. Tulane’s Larry Brooks is a serious player who again might not be a high pick but he has something about him.

There’s also Jalen Catalon at Arkansas who has drifted off the radar as he’s collected injuries but he could provide great value next year.

At defensive tackle — I don’t think there’s a huge drop-off from the names being touted early in round one and Wisconsin’s Keeanu Benton. Off the edge — Florida State’s Jared Verse has made a great start after transferring from Albany. I want to see him test but the early results are good.

The key is going to be continuing to find diamonds as they did this year with Woolen and Abraham Lucas. They are going to need to repeat the work of the early 2010’s where they get supreme talent in unpredictable ways. A clever trade, a day two or three draft pick. I don’t see the alternative options. I wish it was easier to say — ‘draft these two players’ and the problem would be fixed.

The draft depth stretches onto offense too.

I spent part of yesterday studying Zay Flowers, the receiver at Boston College. He’s electrifying and could make a great (and needed) WR3. West Virginia’s Bryce Ford-Wheaton can be inconsistent but he has an exceptional size/speed combo. Jake Bobo was incredibly impressive for UCLA against Washington last week and has deceptive quickness and good size.

Receiver looks to be a position of strength with the likes of Jaxon Smith-Njibga and Jordan Addison likely to go early. I like TCU’s Quentin Johnson too despite his quiet start to 2022.

We might not see the best of Seattle’s O-line until they go ‘full Rams’. LA created a productive zone-blocking line by using converted tackles to play guard. The Seahawks are still using heavier, power-blocking guards. If they pivot to try and get their answer to Austin Corbett and David Edwards — they might look at someone like Zion Nelson at Miami or Jaelyn Duncan at Maryland.

It’s also worth noting that LA’s Edwards is a free agent in 2023.

There are high quality running backs available. Bijon Robinson of Texas and Jahmyr Gibbs of Alabama could both go in the top-15. Yet UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet and Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez could provide great value later on.

The opportunities to get talent/depth are very evident — but the options early in round one could be limited. That’s why it might be better to position yourself to get your guy at quarterback — while you have the opportunity to do so — then take advantage of the depth later.

There is going to be a big rush to get at Will Levis — due to his experience in a pro-style system, the incredible athletic traits, character and the way he is battling adversity and succeeding at Kentucky. The Seahawks are one of the teams able to make a big move due to their 2023 stock. If it’s simply not possible to get to Levis — they could (and should) pivot to the other options who might need more time to develop — with Geno Smith (so far) proving to be a viable go-between.

This is going to be a process without easy solutions on defense. Drafting well on days two and three and developing what you have will be the key.

That is why it’s imperative they sort things out pronto this year. They need to be adding and building in the off-season — not tearing things down and starting from scratch.

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Time for the QB notes from week five.

Before we get started though, I wanted to briefly return to a topic I discussed last week about the broader 2023 draft class.

Every week I keep adding names of players to my watch-list. Players who stand out and warrant another look down the line. What I’m struggling to find, however, are players who deserve to be considered early first round prospects.

I do think this needs to be highlighted. I appreciate that currently Seattle’s defense is an abomination and Geno Smith is playing well. However, finding blue-chip defenders as an alternative to drafting a quarterback in 2023 is going to be incredibly difficult. Aside from Alabama’s Will Anderson, I just don’t think they’re there.

On the other hand, there are quarterbacks that warrant consideration early in round one. With two first rounders and two second rounders in 2023 — the Seahawks have the potential to be aggressive if they want to be.

Some of the defensive players being touted as top-10 picks, I just can’t see it. Take Georgia defensive tackle Jalen Carter. He’s a good player. He isn’t a game-wrecker though.

So far, in Georgia’s five games, he has:

0 sacks
0 TFL’s
4 tackles
1 Pass break-up

I think he’s a very capable interior presence you should consider in the second half of round one as a steady, controlling lineman. But he isn’t Gerald McCoy, Ndamukong Suh or even Quinnen Williams.

Increasingly as this college season develops I’m starting to think the 2023 draft will be similar to 2022. There will be a dearth of legit top-10 players but a reasonable amount of depth overall as you go into days 2-3.

What you do have, that we didn’t see this year, are a handful of quarterback prospects you can invest in and have faith in to be an answer. Plus Will Anderson as a blue-chip pass rusher.

Geno Smith turns 32 in seven days and while he admittedly is the man for the present, I don’t think many people see him as the man for the long-term future. Drafting a quarterback has to remain Seattle’s priority.

I’ll have an article on Seattle’s defensive struggles — and how they might be able to fix them — later this week.

DTR proves he’s underrated, reality bites for Penix Jr

Friday’s game between Washington and UCLA validated something that we’ve been pretty consistent with on SDB. The hype surrounding Michael Penix Jr went too far and Dorian Thompson-Robinson remains underrated.

Firstly, Penix Jr.

There’s no doubt that he’s been a fun player to watch so far. I’ve now watched Washington twice and it’s clear they made a good decision in appointing Kalen DeBoer. That said, we also have to embrace what DeBoer brings to UW.

His system is going to produce. It’s wide open, well crafted, multi-faceted and does a lot of the heavy lifting for quarterbacks. It’s why Jake Haener was able to throw for +4000 yards last year at Fresno State.

I would imagine that for as long as DeBoer is with the Huskies, they’ll have a productive quarterback. Offensive production will never be a problem. The key to them having eventual success will be putting a complementary defense on the field that is good enough to really challenge.

Penix Jr picked UW because he worked with DeBoer at Indiana. He knew the scheme and therefore, it’s no big surprise he started the season well against some bad opponents (including Michigan State’s ridiculously awful pass defense which remains among the worst in all of college football).

Yet every week I was getting more and more messages about Penix Jr, with people increasingly touting him as a legit NFL prospect. I hope this UCLA game will add a bit of perspective to the discussion moving forward.

For starters — I wasn’t aware that when Penix Jr was sacked in the second quarter of this game, it was the first sack he’d suffered all season. That’s remarkable, when you consider Will Levis has been sacked 18 times in five games. It took until mid-way through Penix Jr’s fifth game to receive any serious pressure.

It speaks to the environment he’s come into.

The scheme requires very little from its quarterback other than to execute. Everything is set up for him, he receives his instructions from the sideline and very rarely does he ever progress to a second read. He does do it — and did it for a touchdown in this game, coming off his intended target and throwing to a wide open receiver in the end zone. Yet more often than not it’s a case of snap, do what you’re told to do and the well-crafted offense will sort things out for you.

As a consequence, when things go wrong, you have to be able to adjust and improvise. In this game, Penix Jr could not. He threw two horrible interceptions as a consequence.

The first came with 8:08 left in the second quarter. He stares down his intended target, telegraphing the play. The little bit of pressure means he can’t step into his throw so he’s flat-footed on release. The pass has no mustard on it and was an easy takeaway.

On the very next play, DTR throws a touchdown for UCLA — rubbing salt into the wound.

His second interception again happened when Penix Jr stared down his intended target. The defender is watching him all the way. It’s a slightly later throw and completely telegraphed. Easy pickings.

At one point Andre Ware, who was commentating, congratulated Penix Jr for throwing accurately into triple coverage. For me it just highlighted the problem. If the scheme tells Penix Jr to go to this receiver, he will do. Regardless if it’s triple coverage. And sure — it looks nice when it comes off. Try doing that in the NFL though.

Even at the college level, you need to be able to come off that look and make progressions to find the better option. In the NFL you don’t get to look at three arts-and-crafts boards being held up on the sideline giving you instructions on everything to do.

Aside from all of this, I thought Penix Jr just looked mostly unspectacular. When the easy, well-designed plays weren’t there — there were inaccurate passes to go with the nicely thrown balls. His throwing motion is elongated and problematic. He’s not particularly elusive or dynamic as a runner.

And that’s before we go into his injury history which is extensive.

I don’t want to piss on anyone’s bonfire here. Washington are much more fun to watch than they’ve been in years. Kalen DeBoer gives the team hope for the future. But Penix Jr should generally be an afterthought for the draft. And that’ll largely be the case throughout this year, even as he continues to put up big numbers in this uber-friendly quarterback system.

Thompson-Robinson also receives a lot of the same benefits. His scheme doesn’t demand too much from him. He doesn’t need to progress through numerous reads. In this game, he also benefitted from the brilliance of Zach Charbonnet and Jake Bobo’s knack of getting open.

That said, he just executed better. When key conversions were needed, he delivered. He was accurate and decisive. He didn’t give Washington a sniff of a turnover. He also provided much more of a threat as a runner — including one electrifying hurdle over a defender.

I’ve liked DTR for a long time. I appreciate he doesn’t have the traits of the bigger name QB’s eligible for 2023 and as a consequence, his stock will be somewhat limited. By all accounts he’s probably looking at round four as a ceiling. I still think he has a playmaking quality that many other players — who get a lot more publicity — simply don’t possess. If you need more convincing, check out his 68-yard touchdown scramble against Bowling Green.

He deserves more attention than he gets.

Same old story for Kentucky’s O-line

In many ways, Will Levis should probably be grateful. His offensive line is giving NFL scouts a good look at how he battles adversity week-to-week.

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young can only dream of such an environment.

I’m only half-joking. Part of the problem with analysing quarterbacks at Ohio State and Alabama is the sheer mismatch in talent they benefit from, playing for the teams they play for. Then you throw in how much the Ohio State system holds Stroud’s hand and it creates an extra layer of suspicion.

Then you watch Levis. He takes snaps under center. He reads the defense without needing to look at cards on the sideline or hand signals. He’s playing in a pro-style offense.

And he’s getting hammered every week.

It’s like he’s already in the league.

Levis was sacked three more times against Ole Miss in a game Kentucky should’ve won. One of those sacks was a safety that led to his finger being broken or dislocated on his non-throwing hand. The third sack led to a fumble that ended the game.

He’s now been sacked 18 times in five games.

The Wildcats also surrendered nine TFL’s in this game alone.

Yet, as mentioned, they still should’ve won.

The kicker missed a field goal and an extra point in a three-point loss. They were all set to score on a brilliant kick-return, until the runner was tripped up by a team mate.

Levis had another fumble in the game on a QB-keeper where a defender lowered his head and levelled him at the crown of his helmet. They didn’t even review whether it was targeting.

The quarterback himself wasn’t blameless. The sequence at the end was a bit of a mess. A potential game-winning touchdown was taken off the board because Levis rushed the play in the red zone with less than a minute to go. He spotted a 1v1 matchup he wanted, rushed to get the snap off and a different receiver wasn’t lined up properly. False start (called an illegal shift). It was a shame — his fade pass was caught well and he ID’d the right situation, he just needed to let everyone get set.

Overall though, I saw enough in this game to feel comfortable with my projection as Levis as a high pick, perhaps even the highest in 2023.

He moved the ball well at the end with some top-level pro-throws and processing. When he had time in the pocket, he was surgical. Indeed the way he commands this pro-style offense, makes reads and goes through progressions is a world apart from any other draft-eligible quarterback.

Increasingly I think Levis is going to be the guy teams want. I think there’s going to be a real clamour for him at the top of round one, with teams believing he is best equipped to start early. He is the best combination of pro-style experience, extreme athletic and physical traits, character and performance.

The fact he’s doing what he’s doing with a non-ideal supporting cast too — which is likely what he’ll get early in his NFL career if he’s a high pick — is another feather in his cap.

Bryce Young injures his shoulder

It was a really strange sequence that led to the injury. Young was on the field, seemingly OK, threw a standard pass and immediately his arm went limp. He left the field, threw his helmet to the ground in frustration and entered the medical tent.

Young’s reaction was alarming — it was as if he knew something serious had happened.

Yet later in the game he was back on the sideline, all smiles, cheering his team mates on. He was only considered ‘questionable’ to return — suggesting it wasn’t a serious problem. And yet how many non-serious injuries leave your arm limp?

TV footage also showed an earlier play where he was tackled, and briefly clutched at his shoulder.

Gary Danielson, commentating for CBS, said the following:

“I tore my rotator cuff on a play exactly like that. You don’t know it’s hurt until your next throw.”

Details on Young’s injury are limited at the moment. It does speak, however, to some of the concerns relating to his NFL future.

Despite being listed at 6-0 and 194lbs by Alabama, it’s well established by now that this isn’t accurate. As Todd McShay noted last week, he’s been measured by NFL people at a shade above 5-10 and around the 185lbs mark.

At Alabama, Young faces very little adversity. He plays behind a bunch of all-star offensive linemen who typically overmatch opponents and he’s supported by 5-star talent at the skill positions. Unlike Will Levis — he rarely faces a battering in the pocket. He doesn’t take a lot of damage.

At the next level, he won’t have that luxury. He’s going to get hit. He’s going to be moving around a lot more. Can a player who is this small last the distance? Because there simply isn’t anyone his size doing it in the league.

Young is a good player but there’s no getting away from the fact this is a question NFL teams will have to ask ahead of the 2023 draft.

In terms of what he showed against Arkansas, his first drive ended with an interception. The receiver was hit in his route and it prevented him from being in the right place at the right time. The ball hit his fingertips and deflected straight to a defender.

Alabama were messy to start. One of the receivers had a horrendous drop to start the second series. Then Young fumbled a snap, nearly leading to a turnover. He then threw wild and high on a pass into the flat. But, with this being Alabama, he then hit a slot receiver down the middle who simply out-ran everyone for an easy touchdown.

His next touchdown was a similar cakewalk. A receiver released downfield and was so wide open, it’s as if he was fielding a punt. Young executed the pass to set up a walk-in touchdown on the next play for the quarterback.

On the play where he scrambled to initially possibly injure his shoulder — he had no reason to bail on the pocket. He scrambled his way into bother by running towards the sideline, just because Arkansas blitzed. The protection was fine and yet he bailed on the pocket. He has a tendency to do this — probably because of his height. One of his egregious interceptions earlier this season came on an unnecessary scramble, followed by an ugly heave downfield.

The talent is there. It’s a quandary projecting a 5-10 (ish), 185lbs quarterback to the next level though. That’s just the reality.

As for his opposite number in this game — K.J. Jefferson — I’ve never felt particularly excited about his pro-potential and nothing about this game changed that. I just think he’s limited in terms of mobility and processing. He has the arm to make some pretty throws at times but I’ve never once watched him and felt like I was watching an eventual NFL starter.

C.J. Stroud has another one of ‘those’ games

I want to love Stroud but I simply can’t go there. He has too many games like this where he’s just off.

Stroud is capable of throwing the most impressive passes I’ve seen at the college level, since I started this blog in 2008. I keep saying this.

Yet too often this is offset by the basics just not being good enough. Intermediate accuracy, timing, making the right reads.

And then there are plays like this:

Avery Young picks off CJ Stroud 👀

CFB Live Blog: https://t.co/LXPH5piOFM

pic.twitter.com/5SNbkFmOJv

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 1, 2022

What on earth is that?

What is he seeing?

He has one receiver, blanketed by four defenders. He stares down his intended target, telegraphing the pass. He should never, ever attempt that throw. He tries to fit it in there anyway and quite deservedly, is picked off.

That is just rubbish, I’m afraid. It speaks to a player who has his reads made for him at the LOS, perhaps trusts his arm too much and doesn’t have the ability to sense the obvious danger there, come away from his target and do something else.

He finished 13/22 for 154 yards, two touchdowns and the pick.

His first score was an easy seam throw thanks to the massive separation from the receiver. His second was a simple red zone slant.

Ohio State leaned on their running game in this one and dominated, so Stroud’s iffy game didn’t matter. Yet all a performance like this does is validate some of the concerns I’ve voiced in the past. Not just about Stroud — but about quarterbacks from Ohio State in general.

You can have all the talent in the world. If your college experience is to play with 5-star players on your O-line and skill positions, have your reads made for you to the point you’re told what to do — and all you have to do is execute — how is this preparation for the next level?

A consistent run of Ohio State QB’s — some very high picks with a lot of physical talent — have come into the league and they just haven’t been able to adjust to life outside of the comfortable college bubble they play within.

Stroud is more talented than Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Cardale Jones and others. But it’s impossible not to have some concern about his ability to fair any better at the next level. I think he’s going to need time — possibly even a redshirt year — to really get to grips with the challenge he’s going to face. The extreme arm talent could get him through some growing pains — but we’ve also seen that sometimes, it isn’t enough.

I’m not sure what to make of Max Duggan

What is he? He’s playing very well. But he also lost his job at TCU and is only starting now because the other QB injured his knee in the opening game.

His first touchdown for TCU against Oklahoma was a complete duck — thrown too high, with a wobbly spiral that hung in the air for an age. The receiver did a good job tracking it to complete the catch. At the next level, it would’ve been batted down at best — picked off at worst.

For Duggan’s second score, it’s a complete busted coverage and the receiver is stood downfield completely on his own.

Admittedly his third touchdown — a 67-yard run — was impressive. And he can run — no doubt about it. He gets the legs pumping and he can move. He’s a strong straight-line runner rather than an exciting, elusive pressure avoider.

He had another strong run later in the game and threw some nice passes over the middle with ample velocity. Duggan had another long coverage-bust touchdown before running in a final TD.

I can’t get a feel for his upside and some of these scores were classic Big-12 (bad defense). I’ll continue to monitor him.

Yep, I still can’t quit Anthony Richardson

The physical upside is completely off the charts and he continues to show enough technical quality to want to believe in him — warts and all. It might take two years of pain in the NFL but the end-game could be an elite quarterback.

I appreciate he was only facing Eastern Washington on Sunday but here’s how his day started.

On Florida’s first offensive snap, Richardson throws it from his own 18-yard line with minimal effort, reaching a receiver at Eastern Washington’s 25-yard line. It was freakishly easy for him to lob the ball that far. Big touchdown.

Then on their second offensive snap, he dodges and weaves through defenders on a 45-yard scramble.

Later, Richardson threw an incredible pass to the right sideline with a defender clinging onto his ankles. Somehow he stayed on his feet and armed it out to the sideline with velocity and accuracy.

His second touchdown was a beautiful loft following play-action. Lovely touch on the pass to drop it in over the defender.

I appreciate there are also problems to acknowledge. He had an interception that was a lazy lob downfield, underthrown into good coverage. It’s a big mistake and he should never have thrown that pass. I think he got too comfortable with the score being 35-3 and thought he’d throw it anyway.

And that’s part of the issue. He has a lack of playing time and he’s going to have to work through some issues.

But again — so did Josh Allen. So did Patrick Mahomes. So did Lamar Jackson.

I would put him in the Allen-level range as a physical freak of nature who needs to work on the technical side of the game, cut out mistakes and then the world’s his oyster.

Richardson’s physical talent is that good. It doesn’t mean he’ll deliver on his potential because the game requires more than just physical traits. Yet he has so much to offer — I can’t help but secretly hope the Seahawks will draft and develop him because he definitely could be a star in the making.

If they win too many games to be in the hunt for Levis, Stroud and maybe even Young — it wouldn’t be the worst situation to select Richardson with the objective of developing him, creating the chance to use your other high picks to address other areas of the team.

That plan would only be feasible, however, if Richardson turns pro. That’s unclear given his inconsistent start to the season.

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The way things are going, the Seahawks will get an invite to replace Texas or Oklahoma in the Big-12.

Once again the defense was an absolute horror story — and I’ll come to that in a moment.

Firstly though, the positives.

I really liked the offensive gameplan. There was a lot of misdirection and movement. The Lions couldn’t stop any of the throws where Geno Smith got on the move and one of the receivers or tight ends ran adjacently.

Granted, better opponents will take this away and the Seahawks will need a counterpunch. That is part of their issue, at times. In this game though — the Lions had no answer. The Seahawks filled their boots and rightly so.

They did an excellent job of getting their key playmakers involved too — with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett heavily involved.

I’ve long thought Smith would perform well in the games against weak opponents and struggle badly to move the ball against good defensive units. I feel somewhat validated in that opinion, given the way the Niners game went and the second half against Denver. Yet I’m also happy to admit he has exceeded my expectations after four games.

The big plus, for me, is that he doesn’t threaten to turn the ball over as much as I thought he would. He’s also been a lot better at spraying the ball around than I envisaged. Smith doesn’t have a massive arm to drive the ball for major explosive plays but he’s been very impressive on the mid-range throws. The ball is getting to the target and he’s completing a lot of passes. They aren’t just relying on the dump-offs and underneath stuff like Kirk Cousins did in the frustrating London game against New Orleans earlier today.

So far Smith deserves credit for the way he has played. He’s not the future but he can be the present.

Abraham Lucas is everything we thought he would be. It’s a total joke he lasted until round three and what a masterstroke by the Seahawks to select him. I paid close attention to him in this game and just loved every minute. Great pass-pro, bludgeoning in the running game but it’s not just the power — he wins with subtlety, technique and athletic quality too. He’s looking increasingly like a top, top player in the making.

Tariq Woolen has two interceptions in two games and the one here — stealing six cheap points — was arguably the difference in the game. It’s the one major defensive play that happened. He is still very rough around the edges in coverage but his upside and potential, due to his physical profile, is extremely enticing. I graded him in round two and again — it’s nuts he lasted as long as he did.

The running game still looks very awkward and inconsistent and relied on big splashy plays today — but kudos to Rashaad Penny for hitting his home-runs. We needed to see a return to that and he delivered.

Now the not-so-good stuff.

Cody Barton and Josh Jones should be benched. Surely there has to be better options than these two? Especially Barton. It’s stunning how they didn’t sign or draft proper competition for him this year. He’s all over the place.

I called for defensive improvements this week and none were found. Detroit were missing their best offensive playmakers and the Seahawks still gave up 520 yards, 5.8 yards per run and 7.9 yards per play.

The Hockenson catch-and-run for 81-yards and the Jamaal Williams long touchdown run — my word. This isn’t good enough. And while it didn’t cost them today — there simply has to be improvement soon or serious questions need to be asked. This unit is appalling. Somehow, it’s starting to feel even worse than the Ken Norton years.

I wish I’d put money on T.J. Hockenson having a career day — it was obvious.

As well as Abe Lucas is playing — I think some of the concerns about Charles Cross voiced pre-draft remain an issue. It’s still early days so of course he has time to improve. I’m not writing him off at all, so don’t think that’s what I’m saying. But he has to get stronger and the technical flaws with his footwork he showed at Mississippi State are still cropping up.

My final thought is — I can sense increasingly people are going to move off ‘draft a quarterback’ and pivot to ‘draft defense’ next year. My response to that would be — tell me which defenders you’re drafting because I haven’t see many blue chippers in college eligible for 2023. And you need a long term quarterback. That will remain the priority for this team until it is solved.

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

When the 2023 schedule was released, most Seahawks fans were intrigued by the first few weeks of the season.  After the big opener against their blockbuster trade partner, they had a very manageable stretch to ease their way into the season.  Games against a rival they have historically dominated (San Francisco) and two of the worst teams in the NFL (Atlanta and Detroit) had fans thinking they might at least split those first four and get some forward momentum for the tough stretch that followed.

Well, here we sit after two demoralizing losses that featured disastrous defensive performances that Pete Carroll is once again struggling to account for.  A 2-2 split would be a welcome sight at this point but what this team needs even more than a win is something to hang their hat on.  Some progress fans can see in order to start building some enthusiasm for 2023.

The Seahawks desperately need to put in a better performance Sunday.  The state of this defense is deplorable and while the offense is not as bad, they are not equipped to handle the pressure of consistently needing to outscore their opponent in a boat race every week.

And yet, that is exactly what we have to look forward to on Sunday.  Both the Lions and the Seahawks have biscuit-dough-soft defenses and some exciting weapons on offense.

The main difference between them?  The Lions are badly banged up.  Star offensive weapons D’Andre Swift and Amon-Ra St. Brown will not play Sunday.  That comes on the heels of losing top safety Tracy Walker for the season as well as a whole random assortment of smaller injuries that other guys are dealing with.

Opportunities like this to play a game against a team without their two primary offensive weapons and one of their top defenders only come once or twice a season.  Seattle must take advantage.

Somebody Has to Make a Play on Defense

They really need something tangible they can point to on defense and say they are making progress.  Right now, they are near the league bottom in several crucial categories and they need something to build on.

The front four are not even lining up properly.  Fully grasping what they are being coached to do seems like a monumental task.  

Jordyn Brooks is struggling to have any impact at all.  Cody Barton cannot stop keying on the fullback and taking himself right out of the play – watch him do it for the second week in a row.

The safeties are overextended between handling their regular assignments and needing to tackle runners who have not gotten touched by anyone on the front seven.

They are historically bad in run defense.  Third downs are being conceded at a 48.56% clip.  Costly penalties are extending drives.  They have averaged 7 missed tackles per game.  

The only way you can play that badly and get away with it is to generate turnovers at a league-best level.  They are not doing that.

Enough is enough.

The veterans on this team should be professionally embarrassed that rookies like Boye Mafe and Tariq Woolen  – three games into their NFL careers – are having a bigger impact than they are.  Uchenna Nwosu is the only veteran addition that is carrying his weight.

Three full games of missed assignments, bad presnap reads and very little impact on the opposition’s game plan is more than enough.

Shelby Harris needs to fill a badly needed role on the defensive line by getting some inside pass rush.

Darrell Taylor must remind the Seahawks why they spent so much draft capital and displayed so much patience in his rookie year rehab.

The defensive linemen cannot keep getting pushed around this badly.

Quandre Diggs needs to start playing like Quandre Diggs.

The Lions have been very effective on offense so far this season.  But again, their impact starters are all badly banged up and even their second-level players like Josh Reynolds, D.J. Chark and T.J. Hockensen have appeared on the injury report this week.

Here is the question for the defense.  Can they take advantage of a diminished Lions offense, or will we be reading stories Monday morning of how the Lions’ coaching staff still managed to move the ball effectively with their second-stringers?

Another poor defensive performance against this badly handicapped offense will further expose this team and this administration as inept and make the questions grow stronger and louder.

****

That said, how can the Seahawks effectively defend this Lions offense that is scoring 31.7 points per game, good for second in the NFL?

This week, it begins and ends with Jared Goff.

The Lions have put him in a fantastic position to succeed this year.  They have an offensive line that is extremely solid, an effective running game and receivers that really challenge a defense.

That takes a lot of the pressure off him to carry the offense.  He can operate with a limited schedule because of the support staff all around him.

Let me throw some stats at you.  He has been sacked a league-low four times this year.  He is being pressured on only 18.5% of his dropbacks — a fantastic number.  How?  

It is not just the offensive line.  He is getting rid of the ball very quickly.  He is averaging only 2.3 seconds of pocket time per dropback and as the above numbers are showing, it is not because he is constantly under siege.

Look at this graph (and notice who #2 is)

Their offense is working because they consistently call for Goff to get rid of the ball as soon as he possibly can.

The Lions have found something that works with Jared Goff’s limited abilities.  Hand it off to your explosive runners and let them move the ball downfield.  Run some play action with designed pass plays that are one-look and throw and let them gain yards after the catch with their athleticism.  Take the snap and throw quick slants.  The margin of error for him is healthy because they are getting yards from the ball being in other players’ hands.

Well, guess what.  With his two favorite playmakers out this week and some others banged up, he is going to have to take more of the burden and that is fantastic news for the Seahawks because at the end of the day, he is still Jared Goff.

Watching him play this year, it is remarkable how much he telegraphs his intentions by not even looking at anyone but his primary target.  He practically must throw to his first read for the play to be successful.  Anything else is an adventure.  On one play in the Washington game in Week Two, his primary read was in triple coverage and Goff still tried to fit it in and nearly got picked off.

Yet incredibly, with that simple of an offense to work with, he is still only throwing at a 58.9% completion rate.

With Swift and St Brown out, the margin for error narrows to an uncomfortable degree.

It will be very interesting to see if the coaching staff keeps the bulk of the plays the same and just plugs in the replacement players, or whether they try to roll out some new plays to catch the defense off guard because they have not studied these replacement players in those plays.

I am guessing it will be the former.  Goff is just too limited to get him quickly up to speed on plays with any kind of complication that takes processing power.

If that is the case, the strategy is obvious.  Get the corners up on their men.  Press them, take away the easy catch and run and make Goff hold onto the ball and think.  Safeties and coverage linebackers, read his eyes.  I would be comfortable gambling by instructing the defenders to break on his first read and make him pay for his lack of vision.

Make Jared Goff beat you.

Execute on Offense

For all the flaws on defense, if the offense gets just a little bit better, they beat the Falcons on Sunday.  A bad penalty here, a communication breakdown there and a poor reaction to halftime adjustments have all added up to keep this offense from truly realizing its potential.

The lack of second-half scoring has been well documented.  When the Seahawks were once kings of the halftime adjustment game, they appear to have regressed badly and are getting roundly beaten in this very specific area of game management.

One of the biggest culprits is their tight end production.  The Seahawks have finally started to utilize them effectively after years of wasted resources at the position.  They have three of the team’s four touchdown catches, something considered unthinkable in recent seasons.  However, nearly all their gains have come in the first half of play and they’ve been effectively erased in the second half of the game.

Have a look at the split of their stats as a group through three games:

First Half:  15 catches / 191 yards / 8 first downs / 3 touchdowns

Second Half:  6 catches / 27 yards / 1 first down / 0 touchdowns

That is a serious drop in effectiveness.  The other two offensive areas (running game and wide receiver catches) also are showing a decline in the second half but not nearly as sharp as what the tight ends are doing.

The coaching staff must solve this.  It would appear that teams are rotating their safeties to cover the tight ends more often in the second half to effectively minimize the athleticism gap between the tight ends and coverage linebackers.  It is possible the team could design and utilize some more plays that take advantage of the height and reach of the tight ends to counter this.  Perhaps it is as simple as stretching the field with the wide receivers to make the defense a little more pliable and opening up some room underneath.

If they can solve this second-half swoon with the tight ends, they will get more first downs, which means more series, more chances for impact runs and deep shots to the wide receivers and more rest for the defense.  The impact of addressing this issue successfully needs to be understood by the coaching staff.

Win In the Running Game

The Lions have been only slightly better in run defense than the Seahawks this year.  Where is their defense the weakest?  They have been absolutely gashed between the tackles in the run game.  Miles Sanders (Week 1) and Dalvin Cook (Week 3) have had tremendous success running inside against this defense this year, combining for 115 yards and five explosive runs on only 10 attempts.

The Lions have not significantly added much to their interior defensive line since the last time the Seahawks faced them in Week 17 last year.  That was one of Rashaad Penny’s signature performances.  He ran 25 times for 170 yards and two touchdowns.  What area of the Lion defense did he attack?  Have a look:

Look at all those green 5+ yard runs right up the gut.

It was a fabulous performance.  Feel free to watch some highlights of his day.  You will see the interior at times giving Penny just enough room to get skinny and at others, just blowing lineman off the line of scrimmage.  It was like an express lane to the second level.  By the end of the day, Lion free safety Tracy Walker was becoming quite familiar with Penny.  Walker had no help from the front seven, as you see him being the lone player to touch Penny more than once.  If Penny can come even close to duplicating that performance this week, that will go a long way towards steering the team towards success.

It is also about time that Ken Walker get more involved in the offense.  He had a tantalizing run Sunday against the Falcons.  He can run inside and be used all kinds of ways outside.  A nice homecoming of sorts for him could be in store.

If these two can have the kinds of performances they are able, the offense can control this game and really build some confidence for the next stretch of games.

But as we know, the running game is not all about the backs.  The interior of the offensive line has been horrid so far this season.  They have made Penny and Walker earn every single yard when they run inside the tackles.  Nothing has come easy for them.

The PFF’s for the group are hard to look at.  Lewis leads the group with a 53.7.  Jackson has a 51.9.  Part time starter Phil Haynes is clocking in with a 43.3.  Free agent addition Austin Blythe is somehow making Kyle Fuller look like a preferable option with a terrible 39.6 rating.

What was supposed to be a steadying presence with bookend rookie tackles learning the ropes has been ghastly.  Once again – just three games into their NFL careers – the rookies are showing the veterans up.  That is not acceptable.  The Seahawks need the interior of the offensive line to click as badly as they need the interior defensive linemen to get their act together. 

Here’s what I’m watching this weekend in college football:

Washington vs UCLA
Kentucky vs Ole Miss
Oklahoma vs TCU
Alabama vs Arkansas
NC State vs Clemson

The TV gods are being very generous this week. All of the games apart from Kentucky vs Ole Miss are being broadcast in the UK — and I’ll be able to watch Will Levis against the Rebels using ESPN Player.

I’m starting this open thread a day earlier than usual so people can pass comment on the game tonight between Washington and UCLA. I won’t be watching this game live but will watch it on playback on Saturday morning.

Quarterback watch

I want to start with some thoughts on Jaren Hall from last night. This was far from Hall (or BYU’s) best performance. It was sloppier than his stat-line (17/27, 274 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions) suggests.

Utah State mixed between tricky opponent and hopeless. BYU’s first drive lasted two plays — two wide-open, easy throws were all Hall needed to get his first score. After that, however, the Aggies tightened their belts and forced a few uncharacteristic errors.

Hall’s second drive contained an awful dropped interception. He was flat-footed on the throw, inaccurate and lobbed it straight to a defender. This would’ve been a costly turnover deep in his own half and Hall was lucky to escape an ugly pick.

It was the first of three straight drives that ended with a punt. On the third of these drives, Hall took an avoidable sack (I have been saying he shares some of Russell Wilson’s traits).

He then sacked himself to end a drive that included a horrible dropped pass in the end zone that took a score off the board for BYU.

There were a few grumbles and groans from the home crowd but they re-grouped after half-time. Hall showed fantastic ball-placement on a 14-yard throw to the front right corner of the end zone. It was perfectly thrown — giving the receiver every chance to grab a touchdown.

Even then, on the next drive he could’ve had another turnover. He led his receiver too much on a throw and almost got him hammered by a lurking defender. The pass tipped off his fingertips and was fortunately caught by another receiver rather than a defensive back for a fluke completion.

His third touchdown was another easy, no-coverage/no-resistance jolly-up. An early Christmas present from Utah State.

I wanted to be wowed in this game and if anything, it was a bit underwhelming. It was certainly the least impressed I’ve been by Hall this season — having watched all of his games. BYU play Notre Dame and Arkansas next — so there’s a great opportunity to make a greater statement than he did here.

The game tonight involving Washington and UCLA involves the increasingly hyped-up Michael Penix Jr and the slightly underrated Dorian Thompson-Robinson. I understand why Husky fans are getting excited but a little bit of perspective is required with Penix Jr. He came to UW because he’s familiar with Kalen DeBoer and his scheme which, let’s be right, is very QB-friendly. No doubt he’s made some impressive throws recently but I also think his release is quite elongated and he has a history of injuries. It’s just something to consider. No doubt, though, this should be a fun game.

Will Levis vs Ole Miss will be box-office viewing. The Rebels have the more talented roster (by some distance) but Kentucky has the better QB.

Bryce Young gets to shoot it out with K.J. Jefferson in the Alabama vs Arkansas contest. C.J. Stroud and Ohio State host Rutgers. Anthony Richardson won’t play until Sunday after Florida’s game at home to Eastern Washington was pushed back 24 hours due to Hurricane Ian.

Tanner McKee and Stanford take on Oregon in a late game on Saturday evening. It’s a weekend off for Tennessee and Hendon Hooker. Miami also has no game this weekend — meaning we’ll have to wait a week to see if Tyler Van Dyke remains the starter.

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While the Seahawks’ defense goes about proving it’s more ‘Rings of Power’ than ‘House of the Dragon’ — the 2023 quarterback class continues to provide a welcome distraction.

It might not be the other-worldly group the media has spent considerable time promoting but it’s certainly intriguing enough to discuss week-to-week.

Ever since watching Georgia’s game against Kentucky last October, I’ve been talking up Will Levis. I hoped he might declare against expectations for the 2022 draft.

Increasingly he appears destined to be a very high pick in 2023 instead — and Kentucky are not backward in coming forward about their expectations for him.

Before the season started, Head Coach Mark Stoops predicted he would be the next #1 overall pick. This week, offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello repeated the claim:

“Will is as talented as anyone I’ve evaluated the last five years. The only two guys I would compare him to, where you could see it clearly, would be Joe Burrow and Josh Allen. I think he will be the first overall pick in the draft.”

Scangarello has a deep NFL background. He was Kyle Shanahan’s quarterback coach in San Francisco for two years between 2017 and 2018 before spending 2019 as Denver’s offensive coordinator. He was a senior offensive coach for the Eagles in 2020 before returning to the 49ers in 2021.

It’s not often you hear coaches speak so openly about a player in this way. Part of it, of course, will be promoting Kentucky to future transfer candidates. If Tyler Van Dyke transfers, for example, Kentucky would be a prime location. It doesn’t hurt to highlight the incumbent’s success (and NFL credentials).

Yet it’s also indicative of what Levis has become. He has everything — traits, leadership, pro-style experience, evidence of going through progressions, improv skill, incredible athleticism.

The comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert are not unfair and have been similarly voiced by the likes of Jim Nagy from the Senior Bowl.

There’s also this from an unnamed NFL personnel director, who has scouted Levis extensively and watched him live this season:

“He just needs to continue to work on his pocket poise, his timing and his accuracy under pressure, but he’s one of the more intriguing quarterback prospects in this class,” the personnel director said. “Josh Allen had some inconsistencies with accuracy and timing as well, but we’ve seen how that has played out.

“As [Levis] gets more comfortable and better rhythm in this scheme, I feel like he will be playing even better football at the end of the season than what he’s putting on tape right now. He has all the physical traits and a lot of upside.”

There’s the added factor that Levis is playing behind a porous offensive line with weapons who transferred to the team only this year. C.J. Stroud, on the other hand, is sitting in a perfect pocket most games throwing to an assortment of 5-star skill-players — all while receiving his reads from the sideline.

Don’t be shocked if there’s a battle next year to acquire Levis. I wouldn’t be surprised, given John Schneider’s preferences at the position in the past, if the Seahawks use their hefty draft stock to ensure they get him.

Ultimately it won’t matter if the defense continues to be more Galadriel (“There is a tempest in me!“) than Daemon Targaryen. They’ll be picking early enough to avoid any drama.

I can’t let Anthony Richardson go

Regular visitors to the blog will know I’ve toyed with the idea of letting the Florida quarterback learn his craft, ignoring his draft potential for now. After all — his form is fluctuating, he’s majorly inexperienced and it shows on the field.

Yet I re-watched the Tennessee game this week and I just can’t leave him alone.

Richardson has remarkable physical talent. I’m talking about NFL MVP level talent. You watch him and think — if he can just put all this together, he could be a superstar. He can be a more nimble, quicker version of Cam Newton — with the ability to throw on the run and improv at the level of the current NFL greats.

There are plays against Tennessee where he throws on the move and you just have to sit back in amazement. His arm strength is remarkable and some of the throws he makes have a ‘wow’ factor that screams ‘special’. His pocket manipulation can be scary good.

He is clearly a long, long way from being ready. And he might need college starts rather than NFL redshirt years to reach the required level.

If he declares though — regardless of what happens between now and the New Year — I’d have a degree of interest. I’d be willing to go through the growing pains too if necessary.

I just get the sense that like Josh Allen (who was awful at Wyoming) he could start slowly, erratically and maybe even painfully — then a couple of years in, if guided by the right offensive coach, bang. He could be something very, very special.

Jaren Hall and BYU in action tonight

They take on Utah State in what should be a good showcase for Hall to impress. I really like him — he’s elevated his play this year and he looks superb. I’ve watched all of his games and said several times — he looks a lot like Russell Wilson with his escapability, lofted downfield passes and arm strength.

His age (25-year-old rookie) and size (6-1, 205lbs) likely keeps him in day two but there’s a lot to like here.

If you haven’t checked him out yet — try and watch the game this evening.

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