ESPN’s draft analyst tweeted the following earlier today…
The clear-cut top-3 QBs in 2023 class are CJ Stroud, Bryce Young and Will Levis. Tyler Van Dyke and Anthony Richardson are loaded with traits but have disappointed. Talking to NFL scouts, these QB’s are rising fast: BYU Jaren Hall, UT Hendon Hooker and Fresno St Jake Haener.
This is very similar to what we’ve been saying on SDB over the last month. A ‘top three’ has very much emerged in terms of this quarterback class.
If the Seahawks are going to take a QB early in round one — it’ll almost certainly come from the Levis/Stroud/Young trio.
Tyler Van Dyke is more likely to transfer than declare at this point. My recommendation to him would be to go to Kentucky in 2023, replace Will Levis and play within a pro-style offense in the SEC.
Anthony Richardson doesn’t appear ready to be considered for the pro’s (which isn’t a surprise given his limited number of starts). He has all of the tools but needs time to develop and learn his craft.
It’s also interesting that McShay name-checks Jaren Hall among his ‘risers’.
Hall has been extremely impressive for BYU — far more impressive than I thought he would be based on a study of his 2021 tape. He’s an older player (he would be a 25-year-old rookie) but he has a good arm, useful mobility, a creative flair, I like his throwing base and general technique, he appears to be a strong leader and he’s playing well even in challenging games (eg Oregon).
I still think his age and size (6-1, 205lbs) likely keeps him in day two but there’s an awful lot to like. I’ll also keep saying — it’s not just the #3 on his jersey that is reminiscent of Russell Wilson. He lofts touch passes in an almost identical way to Wilson at Wisconsin. He avoids pressure with similar moves (twisting away from pass rushers, throwing well on the run). He gets good height on his deep ball.
If the Seahawks win too many games to get close to Levis/Stroud/Young — the player I’d have my eye on is Hall.
I’m less enamoured with McShay’s two other suggestions of Hendon Hooker and Jake Haener. I think Haener is a fairly limited player, best suited to a system which relies on scheme over physical traits. He lacks the big-time physical traits but he’s also small (6-1, 200lbs).
Hooker meanwhile is playing well for Tennessee but there are issues you only notice if you study the games in depth.
For example — Florida’s defense was horrendous on Saturday. They gave up an enormous downfield pass by simply forgetting to cover a receiver on one play — then gave up a touchdown when the linebacker neglected to cover the running back in the flat. He had some very easy throws — gifts — from his opponent.
He also plays a lot of one-read concepts and rarely has to go through more than his initial read. You see a lot of half-field reads and at most he’ll offer a head-fake to hold a safety before going to the intended target.
His accuracy is inconsistent — he’ll throw high and wide and he took unnecessary sacks against Florida, including on a 4th & 8 play that led to a fumble.
Hooker does have good athleticism and he’s elevating the Vols to a level they haven’t been in a long time. I do think he’ll find the step up challenging though, based on what the tape shows. I suspect his stock will be limited to the middle rounds at best. There are also impressive throws on tape which make you think he could make it work at the next level — but there’s a degree of projection involved based on his tape/scheme and he might need a fair bit of time.
It’s validating to see what McShay is saying though — in particular the emergence of Will Levis as a legit, high first round pick (a train we’ve been on for almost a year).
By now most people are aware of the situation. Jody Allen is permitted to sell Paul Allen’s key assets to fund his philanthropy. She and the current Seahawks ownership group are nothing more than a holding pattern. It’s the same for the Trailblazers.
However, per the terms of the agreement with the City of Seattle, a sale before 2024 would cost the team hundreds of millions. So the timeframe is set in stone. Presumably negotiations would take some time, possibly dragging into 2025.
This is why Pete Carroll received a five-year contract in 2020. It was convenient for the holding ownership group to hand off the football operations to a vastly experienced Head Coach and VP of football operations. Especially one who, when he received that new deal, was leading a winning football team.
The problem is a lot has changed since 2020. Russell Wilson is gone. The team has started to lose games. The defense looks absolutely hopeless again — as it has done at the start of every season for however many years now. The ultimate power that Carroll wields suddenly feels like it could be a hindrance rather than a convenience.
The franchise badly needs strong leadership and fresh ideas. It’s gradually been going stale for some time. It also needs to move on from the never-ending Russell Wilson talk. As I was watching Richard Sherman and K.J. Wright talk about Sherman’s favourite topic on a podcast last week, it dawned on me that we’ll never be able to move on until everything is different in Seattle — including the Head Coach.
We need a new era of Seahawks football where the drama of yesteryear is consigned to the history books.
It’s too easy to dismiss a coaching change by assuming it won’t happen, due to the imminent future sale. That doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be discussed. That doesn’t mean an intrepid reporter or two couldn’t or shouldn’t dig a little bit to find out whether it’s plausible financially. Does Jody Allen have the means to do it? Because if she does, she has a responsibility — as the custodian of this franchise — to consider it.
Sitting on your hands, even if you have to sell in the future, and letting the franchise drift should not be acceptable. Not for the fans of this team who will be here long beyond 2024/25.
Losing games isn’t a problem. This year was always going to be a slog as the team develops and rebuilds. It’s the manner of the losses that counts.
If the defense is this shambolic — as it has been for too long — why should fans be expected to invest any faith? Especially when the same problems pop up year after year?
There should be pressure on Carroll to deliver improvement and fast. We need to see more from the defense and from the running game. We need to see that this is a blossoming team, not one that can’t tackle, cover or put points on the board in the second half when the game of adjustments is typically lost.
There is such a thing, during a rebuild, as losing ‘the right way’. I would suggest the last two games are examples of losing ‘the wrong way’. What, exactly, is the plan on defense? Instead of leaning into the Vic Fangio background of the new staff, it just looks like a Frankenstein’s monster of Carroll’s back-catalogue. An idea taken from here, an idea taken from there. The results are not good.
When you’re a defensive-minded Head Coach, this is supposed to be your calling card. Seattle’s defense, to put it bluntly, has been bloody awful for too long. We’re seeing players like Darrell Taylor, Poona Ford and Jordyn Brooks — supposedly the future — actually taking significant steps backwards.
If this goes beyond a temporary struggle and turns into a consistent problem — it’s high time more people started to question whether the person in charge is the right man for the job. At the moment, it still seems like a fringe topic. Perhaps even a taboo subject.
Twelve years is a long time to be with a team. Few coaches last that long without things declining to the point of a fresh start being badly required. We’re arguably seeing the same issue in Pittsburgh currently.
With coaches like Mike McDaniel and Nick Sirianni showing what is capable with a fresh outlook and some new ideas — it’s becoming harder and harder to stick by a formula which hasn’t produced serious results for a long time.
Improvement must be witnessed in the next few weeks. Not for the sake of the 2022 season — but for the sake of faith being restored in the head honcho.
It shouldn’t be that Carroll gets to dictate the length of his tenure in Seattle. The team doesn’t exist to indulge his wants and needs to the point where he decides when he’s had enough.
Carroll has to prove he still has some of the old magic left. He should have to prove he’s the right man for the job for another three years.
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When you have a result and a defensive performance like we saw against Atlanta on Sunday, I really wish I could offer some positive draft news as a silver lining.
It’s not my intention to instil misery. I wish I could comfort myself, let alone any of you, with some exciting draft talk.
The reality, I’m afraid, is quite the opposite.
I’m going to get onto week four for the quarterbacks in a bit. Firstly though, I want to offer a quick general thought on the 2023 class.
Where are the top-10 picks?
We’ve already had a third of the college football season and I’m struggling to find legit early first round prospects.
I think there are three quarterbacks that could/should go in that range. Alabama’s brilliant pass rusher Will Anderson is absolutely worthy of that kind of rating.
Apart from that, it’s tough sledding.
Texas running back Bijan Robinson is worth a top-10 grade but his positional value plays into this situation. I think, at the moment, it’s likely he’ll go in that range simply because the alternatives aren’t there.
I’m a big fan of Bryan Bresee the defensive tackle at Clemson. Any defensive tackle who can run a 4.21 short shuttle warrants attention. In three games though, he has two TFL’s and half a sack. He’s not necessarily an ‘impact’ pass rusher who blows up games — rather he looks like a player with the athleticism to make plays just not on a game-wrecking level.
Michael Mayer and Jaxon Smith-Njibga are very good but are they worth top-10 picks? There are cornerbacks who could work into that range such as Kelee Ringo and D.J. Turner but so far they’re just not being tested. Linebacker Trenton Simpson is extremely athletic but in four games he has half a TFL and that’s it. For me, Jalen Carter is more of a late first rounder than a sure-fire blue-chipper. Mazi Smith, the defensive tackle at Michigan, looks like he has the athleticism and dynamism to perhaps work his way into the top-15.
Pass rusher Will McDonald, a player the league supposedly rates highly, has 1.5 sacks in four games. Myles Murphy, a player I think is a bit overrated, also has 1.5 sacks in four games. It’s tricky to work out what Nolan Smith even is at the next level (he’s 6-3 and 235lbs) but he too lacks production so far (one sack in four games).
Kayshon Boutte — touted by many in the media as a high pick — has 93 receiving yards in three games and zero touchdowns. Quentin Johnson — who I really like — similarly has just eight catches for 73 yards at TCU with zero touchdowns. Jordan Addison has started very well at USC. I do wonder about his testing results — his combine/pro-day workouts will be intriguing.
At the moment it’s hard to work out who the non-quarterback early first rounders are. At least this year you had some ‘big name’ talents like Kayvon Thibodeaux and Derek Stingley Jr, to go along with three top-10 offensive tackles and some high picks at receiver. Right now — the 2023 class looks quite poor at the top end aside from Anderson and the quarterbacks.
Before the Falcons game I was thinking about this and contemplated the Seahawks being very aggressive to ‘get their guy’ at QB while they had the draft stock to make a big move. I think that might be fairly likely unless their draft position means they don’t need to be aggressive. I’m just not sure what the alternative plan could be.
There will be fans watching the defense on Sunday, pining for additions there. With more people casting their eyes to the non-first round QB’s, I suspect discussions will be had this week online and on the radio about pumping resources into the defense and going with a QB later on. Or at least spending their highest pick on one defensive player.
John Schneider being at the Stanford vs Washington game on Saturday might fuel that discussion, with Michael Penix Jr facing Tanner McKee. It’s important to note, however, that when NFL teams play games close to college match-ups involving two highly rated QB’s — they often arrange their weekends around it. Had the Seahawks been playing at the Titans on Sunday, I’m sure Schneider would’ve paid a visit to watch Hendon Hooker vs Anthony Richardson instead (as the Raiders’ staff reportedly did).
I’m increasingly a big fan on BYU’s Jaren Hall myself and I think he’ll probably be a day-two type. Yet it’s hard to find the defensive pieces — short of Anderson (who could be the #1 pick) — to justify avoiding the high picks at QB to try and flesh out your defensive talent.
After four weeks of college football, this isn’t looking like a particularly blue-chip heavy first round. I would suggest you have Will Anderson, C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Bijan Robinson and possibly Bryan Bresee or Mazi Smith, on top of maybe Kelee Ringo and D.J. Turner. You might be limited, however, to the first four names on that list.
I wish I had better news.
On to the quarterback reviews…
Will Levis impresses with no help
There are harder (although perhaps not ‘tougher’) opponents upcoming for Kentucky over the next few weeks — but Levis played very well against Northern Illinois despite receiving precious little help.
There was one glaring error, which I’ll come onto, but otherwise this was a fairly impressive display.
Increasingly it feels like Levis’ supporting cast is going to bite him — or cost Kentucky a chance to do something special this season. The offensive line has been dreadful every week and gave up another five sacks on Saturday. That’s 15 sacks for the season now in four games — despite facing Northern Illinois, Miami (Ohio) and Youngstown State.
Ole Miss, South Carolina, Mississippi State and Tennessee (their next four opponents) must be licking their chops.
ESPN described Levis as being constantly ‘under siege’ in the pocket in their post-game report. They weren’t kidding.
Despite this, he started the game with an eight-minute touchdown drive which was methodical, patient and well crafted. His second drive ended with back-to-back sacks. Welcome to the 2022 Kentucky Wildcats.
His third drive produced this incredible touchdown:
What a play. He stands tall in the pocket, knows he’s going to get hammered but just waits that extra second to allow the play to develop. Look at the velocity he generates with just a flick of the wrist. Teams will salivate over a play like that — vision, toughness, arm strength. Wonderful.
On the final drive of the first half, he also showed he can throw with perfect touch. Levis delivered the perfect pass only to see it dropped badly by the receiver.
The start of the second half contained the massive, glaring error.
Levis had a horrendous near interception. He stared down the receiver, had an extra hitch leading to a late throw and had no business throwing the pass where he did. The defender dropped the pick and he was incredibly lucky. His footwork was stodgy and lazy. It was a poor play in every sense and deserved to be punished.
This is something he needs to get together in the coming weeks. Levis’ footwork, base and throwing angles are typically very good. Yet he does have the habit of getting a bit loose at times. Last week it led to a sailed pass and an interception. This one should’ve been picked too.
I’d be more concerned if his technique wasn’t typically very good. It’s also worth noting that C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young have also had plays like this too.
His very next throw was a touchdown for 70 yards. Because of course. NIU were punished for failing to make the big interception. It was a great play design by Rich Scangarello and the execution to exploit a soft coverage was textbook. Levis just had to deliver the ball to his crossing receiver, he did, and it was a big YAC score.
Levis was excellent on third downs in this game. Kentucky converted 10/16 — many of which were throws — and were also 2/2 on fourth down.
He is running a pro offense and there’s so much to like about how he operates within the scheme. You can clearly see him going to three progressions. He converted third downs by going to a check down after running through two initial reads. This cannot be underestimated. He knew the down/distance, he was conscious of what was required to move the sticks, he has mastered the concepts within the offense. It’s why he looks the most prepared to start in the NFL of the 2023 class.
With 11:02 left in the game he had a fantastic deep shot which was dropped. It was perfectly thrown, he flashed his amazing arm and he was sliding to his left which added a degree of difficulty. The throw deserved a 40-yard TD rather than a drop.
He did get another score on 3rd and 12. Again Levis did brilliantly to stand tall despite a ton of pressure on a blitz — delivering a brilliant pass. The receiver made a defender miss and ran it home.
Overall this was a superb display, cementing his placing as a high draft pick. He finished with 70% completions, 303 passing yards and four touchdowns. The one error was a bad one but not a costly one. The next few weeks will be a great challenge and a test of Levis’ capabilities.
A quick aside — Brock Osweiler was commentating on this game and was great in the booth.
Tyler Van Dyke is benched
Mario Cristobal is not a good Head Coach. He didn’t make the most of Justin Herbert in Oregon. His team had their pants pulled down by Utah twice last season. Now he’s ruining talented young quarterbacks with his archaic, predictable, boring offense.
Look, TVD isn’t blameless. He’s been hesitant all season. He’s making mistakes as he did with his first interception on Saturday. Yet look at the second pick. They throw this pass all the time in the Cristobal offense. I’ve been banging on about this since the Herbert years in Oregon. If a random bloke in Rotherham picks up on it — is it any surprise opponents are too?
Middle Tennessee State did their homework and had their defensive lineman get in the predictable passing lane. Tipped, picked, pick-six.
Cristobal has turned a prolific passing QB who sprayed passes all over the field into a quivering wreck. Last season, his first as a starter, he scored 26 touchdowns and threw just six picks. He led Miami into Pittsburgh and out-duelled and beat Kenny Pickett and the ACC Champions.
It’s taken four games to make him look crap in this rubbish offense.
Who knows what happens now? He needs to get away from Cristobal. Either via the draft or via transfer.
Miami made a huge mistake in their coaching decision during the off-season. They and Cristobal deserved to be humiliated by MTS.
Some of the same issues on show for C.J. Stroud
There is so much to like about Stroud. The way he started the game was quite incredible.
His first big throw was beautifully placed in front of the safety, perfectly timed, with ‘wow’ velocity. It was special — the accuracy and the arm strength were different class. His second big throw was placed over the linebacker and in front of the safety. I almost stood and applauded the TV. A lot of players can’t make these types of throws.
His first passing touchdown continued the hot start. There was motion to the left and Stroud himself ran to that side. The defense flowed with the movement and didn’t cover the tight end running to the open space on the right hand side. Off balance, Stroud throws it back across to that side with ease. It’s not easy to execute but he made it look that way.
His second touchdown was an easy play action, he moved to the outside, the TE peels out to the flat. Simple toss once the defenders committed to Stroud running.
He was decisive and made the plays he needed to make.
But then there are the obvious issues we have to keep noting.
He threw an interception before halftime that was just awful. He patted the football unnecessarily and hesitated. Inevitably he throws late and off target. It’s too high and sails over receiver. The Wisconsin defender makes a great catch but it was a bad error from Stroud.
Then with the first throw of the second half he doesn’t read the dropping DE and almost throws a pick six straight to him.
This highlights another issue with Stroud and Ohio State quarterbacks generally. Everything is done for them. Great O-line, great weapons and they receive reads from the sideline. Before every snap he’s basically told what to do. He looks across at the coaches who tell him what the read is and then he gets to try and execute with an elite supporting cast.
For the most part he does a great job bringing it together. This isn’t translatable to the NFL though. And for all his clear physical talent — he isn’t going to have this supporting cast, facing overmatched opponents with coaches holding his hand in the pro’s.
It’s why so many Ohio State QB’s look amazing in college and flame out at the next level.
It took Wisconsin ages to work out a plan. In the second half they started dropping into two deep safety looks and had their LB’s dropping deep to send everything underneath. Stroud threw dangerously into that coverage, had a pass tipped and could’ve been picked again.
But just as it was all starting to get a bit frustrating — he absolutely fires in a slant for a hot touchdown. It was, admittedly, a dangerous throw. The safety was right there to make the pick but there was enough arm strength to force it by the DB. He has a great fastball and is very capable of fitting the ball into tight windows with tremendous velocity.
This is how I would sum up Stroud. Physically, I can’t remember seeing many players with skills as good as his. His ability to throw a laser with accuracy and make ‘wow’ plays is pretty remarkable. When he’s playing well, you just end up shaking your head in wonderment at times. At his best he’s a joy to watch. On top of this I like his base and his throwing motion. Stroud’s technique is a lot better than Justin Fields’ ever was.
Yet the caveat is he does get sloppy, he has got an amazing supporting cast and unlike with Levis — all the hard stuff (reading coverages) is done for him.
He could easily be the #1 overall pick based on talent. He could also need a fair amount of time to learn how to lead and run a NFL offense.
It’s very easy to imagine him being a NFL star or the latest Ohio State QB to flop. Quite rightly, someone will roll the dice on his special qualities. It’ll be interesting to see if it’s as the first player taken, or even the first quarterback.
On a different note — I really enjoyed watching Wisconsin safety John Torchio in this game. Big hits — a brilliant catch on the Stroud interception. He looked athletic, tough and impactful. He’s a senior.
Hendon Hooker vs Anthony Richardson
A lot of people ask me about Hooker — and increasingly ask why I’m not that high on him as a pro-prospect. I appreciate why that’s hard to comprehend with the Vols winning and Hooker putting up big numbers.
I think this game, despite Hooker’s success in it, highlighted what I’m trying to get across.
Several of his big plays were wide open, easy throws. And when I say wide open — I mean no defender in the same postcode as the receiver. He threw a handful of inaccurate passes that were fairly reckless — throwing high or wide of the target. He had a sack/fumble on 4th and 8 where he simply had to know you’ve got to get the ball out. He took far too long in the pocket. He took avoidable sacks.
I’m not completely blind to what he does well. He has impressive athletic qualities. His arm strength is good and he made some nice throws. He had a great improvised scramble for a good gain. He is elevating Tennessee and for the first time in years, they’ve found a productive QB.
I do think, though, that he’s more of a really fun, productive college QB than someone who necessarily will be a high pick. There’s a lot of one-read stuff. His scheme sets the table for a lot of what he does. He’s not always particularly accurate.
This isn’t me saying he’s useless or has no NFL future. I’m just trying to be realistic about his stock. Increasingly now — as soon as a college quarterback puts up great numbers, they get talked about as a high draft pick. We’re seeing it with Michael Penix Jr and others. Yet we’re living in an era where offensive production at a prolific level has never been more common, especially when we see very creative offensive coaches running a lot of college teams.
It’s important to remember that production, however good, doesn’t dictate stock or a projection.
On Anthony Richardson, this was a nice bounce-back game. He made better decisions, made several ‘wow’ plays of the ilk we saw against Utah in week one. This was a marked difference from his previous two outings.
He did fumble on a horrible looking quarterback-keeper that more or less ended the game as a contest — but even then, with time running out, he led a couple of touchdown drives when it would’ve been easy to press and make mistakes. His interception was only on a Hail Mary at the end of the game.
It’s hard to get a read on his stock. He basically has everything physically. He just looks inexperienced and undercooked. In time, everything is there to be special. You’ve just got to let it develop.
It’s very easy to forget that Josh Allen was fairly hopeless at Wyoming. Mistakes galore. Never elevated his team. He had some really ugly games. Now he might be the best player in the NFL — because he’s a physical freak of nature. Once he had time to develop, he delivered on his outrageous potential.
I do wonder if the same thing could happen with Richardson. He runs a 4.4. He has a special arm. He has ideal size. We saw touch passes in this game. He has shown an ability to process within a pro-style offense.
He might need a couple of years to learn but the upside of Richardson is basically unmatched. The question is whether he’ll deliver on the unreal upside or whether he’s just an amazing athlete.
Jaren Hall with another good game
No quarterback has surprised me more, so far, than BYU’s Hall. He looks a different player compared to last season (when he was supposedly playing through an injury).
Wyoming put up a heck of a fight on Saturday and yet, as with Oregon the week prior, Hall’s performance was consistently really strong.
He wears #3 and it has to be said — he does look a lot like Russell Wilson at times. There’s no getting away from that.
He improvises well — twisting and spinning away from pass rushers to extend plays and then throw confidently on the move. His touch and loft passes are so similar to Wilson’s at Wisconsin it’s uncanny. He throws with great base and positioning — with his shoulders consistently square to the target.
He doesn’t quite have Wilson’s arm strength but the more I watch of Hall, the more I like him. As a day two option with major upside — I think Hall is worth monitoring.
Bryce Young’s very easy day
Alabama played Vanderbilt and predictably, it was a walk in the park. Everyone was open. The running backs ran riot in the running and passing game. Young had all the time in the pocket. On one play with 15 second left in the first half, he threw to an area where two receivers were open, next to each other, in the same five-yard radius.
It was hard to learn anything from this game other than to say Will Anderson is fantastic and he remains a very realistic option to go first overall.
If you missed our post-Falcons reaction show, you can watch it here:
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Another year, another season where Seattle’s defense is DOA.
Pete Carroll, a defensive-minded Head Coach, needs to find some answers pronto.
Yes — this is a rebuild year. Yes — there are going to be growing pains along the way as they figure this out.
Yet for the last however many years, the Seahawks have started badly on defense. They’ve felt unprepared, incapable, impotent. There’s no consistent pass rush. They struggle to force turnovers. Their run defense is bad.
Why does it keep happening?
Today they played a defensive unit that was equally awful. Seattle and Atlanta combined to produce a defensive performance so poor, it was akin to watching the Big-12.
Neither team could do much of anything. Atlanta’s pass rush was so anaemic, it almost felt like they’d left it on the plane. Seattle, meanwhile, gave up explosive plays galore.
Yet at the end — a Grady Jarrett sack (a moment of quality from a great player) enabled Atlanta to do just enough to escape with the win. All after Marcus Mariota had threatened to chuck it away with a botched hand-off.
The Seahawks have changed their defensive staff completely. They were supposedly tweaking the scheme (although Carroll keeps insisting things aren’t that different).
No kidding.
Too many of the same problems have remained over many years. Basic things too — such as poor tackling. What is Carroll doing to rectify these issues? Why do they come out of camp and pre-season suffering in the same way every year?
Why are the Seahawks so easy to play against on defense?
Why do they annually fail to produce a serious pass rush despite relentlessly talking about needing to fix it?
It’s not good enough and goes beyond the fact they’re in a rebuild. They have veterans in the front seven. Players like Jordyn Brooks who get talked up big time and for what reason, exactly? How did Quandre Diggs play today? The man they are paying a fortune to play next to the other expensive safety who is injured again.
This should’ve been a victory. Atlanta couldn’t do anything defensively themselves. Geno Smith had one of the easiest days he’ll have to lob passes across the yard. Let’s not pretend it was anything other than a very easy day for him (although he easily could’ve had two interceptions before the late fourth down desperation heave).
It wasn’t a victory because the defense is hopeless.
They can’t even do one thing right. At a bare minimum — take away the run. Nope. A career day for Cordarrelle Patterson (17 runs, 141 yards). It was embarrassing how easily he ran through Seattle’s defense.
The worst play, arguably, was the Drake London touchdown. Pre-snap you could easily see he was wide open and nobody was covering him. How did they not address that? Even before the snap, I thought, ‘I could complete that pass’. Horrible.
How can fans invest faith in the rebuild if the defensive Head Coach can’t even produce a barely competent defense?
In the grand scheme of things this result — against a rival for draft position — isn’t a bad thing. But in the context of the people in charge remaining in charge to oversee this build, it is very concerning.
This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel
A euphoric nail-biting win followed by the worst loss since the 42-7 drubbing by the Rams in Week Fifteen of 2017.
Can the coaching staff avoid a sluggish start on defense for the third season in a row?
No they cannot.
2020’s excuse was, “We’re getting hands on the quarterback just not taking him down for sacks.”
2021?It was, “The guys are doing everything we need to see in practice just not executing on Sundays.”
This year, it is, “The defensive linemen and linebackers need to work together better.”At least Pete Carroll is acknowledging that this year’s defensive problem will need time to fix.
Can this team get a reasonable return on their investments at the safety position?
No they cannot.
Jamal Adams is injured and out for the season.Quandre Diggs has dropped an interception and missed tackles.
Can this defense get off the field?
No they cannot.
They are bottom-10 in plays, sacks, first downs conceded, yards and penalties that result in first downs.On top of that they are on pace to surpass their league-history worst mark last year of yards conceded to running backs in the passing game, allowing 11 more yards per game so far this season.
It is troubling and continually underlines that this team is lacking creative thought and a mindset that will get them going in the right direction.
****
In that context, it is somewhat comforting that Atlanta is coming to town.Any list of the three least talented teams in the NFL must include the Falcons.No one is surprised that they are 0-2 at this point in the year.While they have had two one-score losses against New Orleans and the Rams, their inconsistent play has doomed them in both games.
In Week One they blew a 16-point lead by getting outscored 17-3 by the Saints in the fourth quarter.To add insult to injury, they held the ball for 10 of the quarter’s 15 minutes.They had a lead and could control their own destiny but failed badly.The Saints cut through Atlanta’s defense when it counted most and squeaked by them.
Week Two saw a flipped script, with the Falcons doing the 17-3 outscoring in the fourth quarter against the Rams.However, that is after they ended the third quarter down 28-10 due to poor play.Their late scoring flourish was not necessarily a strong product of their competency, as they were helped along by Los Angeles, with an interception, allowing a blocked punt to be returned for a touchdown and a strategically conceded safety.
While the Falcons will provide a test this week, a Seahawks team who have hopefully been awoken by the hammering at the hands of the Niners should be able to handle them.
This game could be like the Week Eight game last year against Jacksonville, where they cruised to a win and everything felt just a little better after losing three in a row.
Or it could be like the Week Sixteen game against Chicago, where most everyone expected an easy win and the visiting team rode a plucky veteran quarterback performance to beat them.
What will be the difference?They will need to perform well in these areas…
While it is gratifying to correctly point out the key issues the Seahawks faced leading up to the game, it is extremely disappointing to see that they could not have played worse in these areas and it all added up to a terrible performance.
They were not ready to play mentally
Pete Carroll said they could see the signs all week leading up to the game and that he needs to do a better job managing that.The trick plays felt like an acknowledgement that the team needed a spark, some kind of easy yards and points to give the squad a charge.Unfortunately, they backfired badly.
As an aside, what ever happened to “every week is championship week” in Seattle?In the heyday of the team, they displayed a steely calm that had fans and the press believing they could take on any challenge.
When asked, they all mirrored one thought from Pete Carroll on down to the lowliest special teams player – that every week is treated like it is of the highest priority.Therefore, no moment was too big for them.
The last three seasons, we have seen more than one player publicly acknowledge they were not properly focused and that it hurt the effort on the field.Pete Carroll has taken to blaming the short week for their challenges more than he ever has.
When they are not ready to play, that leads to mistakes…
They did not play smart
Three turnovers, all of them a different variety. One of the everyday sort (Geno Smith’s interception), one that was hard luck (Tyler Lockett’s punt muff) and one patently absurd (Deejay Dallas’ half back option interception).
They also got flagged for 10 penalties for 106 yards.
Baffling coaching decisions also abounded.
They got obliterated on the ground
They gained 36 rushing yards and allowed 189.They recorded 11 missed tackles.It is no wonder that San Francisco possessed the ball a full quarter more than the Seahawks did, beating them by 17 minutes in time of possession.
It does not matter if you are playing against a Super Bowl contender or an also-ran.That performance and those numbers will get you plowed.
Another week of “the dog ate my homework” simply will not do.
Stop The Falcons’ Run Game
The Seahawks’ front seven are likely sore after Sunday’s performance against San Francisco.After observing that the run defense needs to get better on the edges following the Monday night game against Denver, the Seahawks got absolutely gashed in between the tackles by the 49ers.
They will need a quick turnaround in order to improve their performance Sunday.Why?
The Falcons are currently averaging an impressive 146 rushing yards in their first two games, good for 7th in the NFL.Cordarrelle Patterson is leading the way for them.
He is one of the more fun stories in the NFL right now.As a 31-year-old kick returner who never really realized his potential as a wide receiver, he has been reborn as a converted running back.At 6’2” and 220lbs and wearing #84, he is a compelling curiosity lining up behind Marcus Mariota.
It is not just his position that has changed.His skill profile has changed completely.Whereas he has always been known as a speedy game-breaking type who operates in the open space of returning kicks or running routes as a receiver, now he is making a living using his size and strength as a runner in the trenches.Most of Patterson’s runs have been between the tackles.
The front seven will need to be ready for him.How can they succeed?
First off, there is a simple way to get better —play a weaker opponent.Few offenses are as well coordinated and executed as a Kyle Shanahan offense.Not only did their star players like Deebo Samuel make some great individual plays Sunday, they functioned very effectively as a unit.The Seahawks should naturally show better by playing a team that is simply not as talented or as well-coached as San Francisco.
Secondly, they will need better individual performances from their defenders.
Pete Carroll spoke of their front-seven woes as an issue of getting the defensive linemen more in sync with the linebackers so everyone functions as a unit.He also stated that it does not happen overnight.It needs time to really come together and make that work.
He is not wrong.However, if individual defenders display fire and desire to attack their assignment, it can minimize the impact of the defense as a whole not being as tuned as tightly as a Formula One race car.
Where could the Seahawks have minimized the damage with just one individual displaying a better effort?It is obvious.Quandre Diggs making the tackle there ends the play after just five yards or so and keeps the offense just outside of the red zone.He has made that tackle many, many times in the past, often giving the runner a pretty good pop and leaving him with second thoughts about meeting him in the hole again.
The truth is though, with several better individual efforts on this play, the runner never makes it to Diggs.
Start with Boye Mafe.The rookie falls victim to a clever block fake by Brandon Aiyuk and loses his balance and stumbles.If he comes in clean and gets any push at all on Kyle Juszczyk, that hole gets narrower.Davis-Price has to hesitate just enough to allow the streaking Darryl Johnson to catch his ankles and stop the play for no gain.
Mafe will learn.It is his second professional game.He only played nineteen snaps last week, let’s give him a break.
Al Woods is next.He is initially double-teamed by the center Jake Brendel and the right guard Spencer Burford.Brendel quickly turns 90 degrees and Woods allows it.Brendel is in perfect position, with his butt pointed toward the gap.But Woods does not read the play well or quick enough and Brendel is able to hand Woods off to Burford and block Jordyn Brooks, who has read the play and is moving like a guided missile towards Davis-Price.If Woods reads that better and forces his attention on Brendel, Brooks stops the play for a small gain.
Finally, we come to Cody Barton.What is he doing on this play?Seriously.The hole develops right in front of his eyes less than a heartbeat after the snap.Brendel and left guard Aaron Banks’ body angles are literally signaling where the runner is going.Holes do not get bigger than that.There is no trickery in the exchange as Lance pitches it to Davis-Price right in front of Barton.And yet he laterally drifts out of the hole and is swallowed up by Banks.It is possible he locked on Kyle Juszczyk and mirrored him right out of position instead of concentrating on the runner.
It would be fantastic for Barton to read that play, jump into that hole and stone Davis-Price cold.That would fire his teammates up something fierce.But honestly, all he really needs to do is occupy the hole.Aaron Banks’ job is to help Trent Williams with Jefferson and then disengage and take Barton on.If Barton steps up into that hole, Banks has to get in front of him.So even if he is blocked by Banks, that physical space is taken.Davis-Price then gets redirected and does not go for 20 yards.
Any number of those players providing a more thorough effort and that play ends up with a much better result for the Seahawks.
But it is not all negative in this instance.Let’s conclude with great examples of individual effort from the backside of the play.
Darryl Johnson is unblocked, reads the play, accelerates all the way across the backfield and just barely misses the runner.If he has a 10-yard split like an Avril or a Taylor he probably makes that tackle.
Watch Josh Jones on the play as well.He has a coverage assignment on a tight end, who stays in to block.Jones engages him, reads the play, disengages and chases Davis-Price down from the other side of the field.That effort ends up saving four points early in the game, as the defense then held San Francisco out of the end zone.
Those are the kinds of efforts that the Seahawks need Sunday.Everyone may not be on the exact same wavelength but if they let their coaching, desire and athleticism take over, they will be able to make plays to keep the Falcon rushing attack from controlling the pace of the game.
Pass to Set Up the Run On Offense
The Falcons had the worst pass rush in the NFL last year.They recorded a league-low 18 sacks as a team.
How bad was that?The Eagles were the next-worst team with 29 sacks.T.J. Watt (22.5) and Robert Quinn (18.5) each out-sacked the entire Falcon defense.
The Falcons’ team pressure rate?A league-low 16.7%.
They missed out on the top 3 pass rushers in the draft and opted to take Drake London at #8, which has been a very good pick for them so far.But that does not help the pass rush.
They do have 5 sacks in 2 games.But their pressure rate has dropped even further from 2021, standing at a putrid 14.3%.Put another way, they are not pressuring the quarterback 85.7% of the time.
We all know the typical way to address not having effective pass rushing coming from your top four players. Blitz.A lot.The Falcons are sending extra rushers at a pretty good clip so far, with 25.33% of their plays sending a blitzer.How is that working out?
They have recorded one sack.But they have conceded 9 first downs on 18 throws, three touchdowns, and a 132.9 quarterback rating.Those are disastrous numbers.Just about all they have accomplished in blitzing is taking another pass defender out of the play.
It is showing up in the individual stats for their defensive backfield:
-CB A.J. Terrell has conceded three touchdowns and a 75% completion rate on passes for a whopping 138.9 QB rating
-CB Casey Hayward is a little better with 60% for a rating of 87.5
-SS Jaylinn Hawkins is surrendering 70% for a rating of 123 (hello tight ends)
-FS Richie Grant is the best of the bunch, conceding 50% for a 59 rating
Those numbers are reflected in their PFF scores as well.The average score of their starting backfield is 61.2.
They cannot get pressure with their front four.They get burned badly when they blitz.The defensive backs are vulnerable.
The Seahawks must take advantage.There is no game on the schedule quite so obvious as this one.With the receiving weapons they have and a quarterback who can be accurate when he is not being pressured, the game plan should be clear.Pass to get the tempo set, get a lead and then help your vulnerable defense by controlling the game script.
I’ve returned from Italy, having watched England deliver a ‘hold my beer’ performance in response to Seattle’s loss in Santa Clara. Ah, the joys of fandom.
Here’s what I’m watching this weekend in college football:
Florida vs Tennessee Wisconsin vs Ohio State Wyoming vs BYU Northern Illinois vs Kentucky
Sadly the footballing gods have conspired that none of these are early kick-off’s so aside from the Florida/Tennessee game, I’ll likely watch the other three on Sunday (a 5am night of CFB probably not the best idea given it’s my son’s birthday party tomorrow).
Quarterback watch
Although I’m watching Florida vs Tennessee, I’ll be doing so with low expectations. Anthony Richardson has played so poorly in the last two games he’s more likely to be benched than drafted in the early rounds. He needs time and development, not the pressure of his personal stock weighing on his shoulders. I don’t really see Hendon Hooker as a high draft pick either. I’ll watch both and reserve judgement — but this game is less intriguing in ‘quarterback watch’ than the other three I’ll be viewing this weekend.
C.J. Stroud has had a couple of cupcake games and today faces a trickier opponent in Wisconsin. Ohio State should still win comfortably and that’s what I want to see. I want Stroud to dominate this game, make those outstanding ‘wow’ throws but also show he can deliver with accuracy on the intermediate level, progress through reads and prove the basics can match the physical talent.
BYU’s Jaren Hall has really impressed me this year, even in a heavy loss to Oregon last week. I’m eager to see if he can continue to build momentum against a Wyoming team who were blown out by Illinois and needed three overtime periods to beat Tulsa.
Can Will Levis deliver a ‘complete’ game? Can he show off the good aspects of his game and avoid turnovers against Northern Illinois? His next four games after this are Ole Miss (A), South Carolina (H), Mississippi State (H) and Tennessee (A). He’s getting to the crucial point of Kentucky’s schedule and needs to hit a peak soon.
Miami’s offense will probably continue to bore the living daylights out of everyone against Mid Tennessee State. Poor Tyler Van Dyke. Alabama and Bryce Young take on Vanderbilt this week.
UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson faces struggling Colorado. Stetson Bennett will get another stat-padding day when Georgia take on Kent State. It’s a big game for K.J. Jefferson and Arkansas against Texas A&M.
I don’t have access to Washington vs Stanford but it will be fun and intriguing to see Michael Penix Jr square off against Tanner McKee. I will try and find footage of that game in the coming days.
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While watching Seattle’s latest outing against San Francisco, you may have taken comfort in thinking about next years draft.
After all, the media have done a great job telling you it’s a remarkable quarterback class loaded with options.
Unfortunately, after three weeks of the college football season, there are more questions than answers.
Nobody has started in the way Joe Burrow did in 2019 for example. There are some intriguing players but that’s the adjective you’d have to use to describe them. Couched language is necessary at the moment.
I’m afraid to say this is not a group so far that is ‘other worldly’ — as has been portrayed. I want to go beyond the rhetoric of the ‘amazing’ quarterback class and try and describe what’s really going on.
For a variety of reasons the group is yet to really get firing. There’s still time for that to happen — but it has been a bit of an underwhelming start.
At this stage I don’t think we can assume that the antidote to that performance in Santa Clara yesterday — and the future of this team — is going to be readily available next April.
It is still possible though. There’s plenty of time left for fortunes to change and form to be established. There are good quarterbacks (and players at other positions) who will be part of the 2023 draft.
But again — it should be noted that the narrative of this being a mind-blowing class perhaps needs to be toned down.
Here are my quarterback notes from the weekend…
More of the same from Will Levis
Kentucky’s quarterback has a legit chance to be the first quarterback taken. Yet his first three games have been a mixed bag.
Youngstown State were never going to provide the sternest test and so it proved. Levis showed off his amazing physical traits, command of the play-action heavy Shanahan-style offense and ability to make impressive throws from a strong base.
He also had another game where his O-line tried to get him injured (his right tackle is absolutely horrendous) and he threw two more interceptions.
His first pass of the game was a great play-action play. He launched it down the middle for a 27-yard gain. Classic Levis — play-fake, set and throw. It will excite the pro-teams how comfortable he is operating in this system.
Levis’ first two third down plays resulted in sacks. The second was arguably a coverage sack but the reality is it was another four-sack, multiple-hit day. He faces weekly adversity in the pocket that the likes of C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young never encounter.
He showed off his easy arm strength again and can launch a rocket on an in-route 15-30 yards downfield with a little flick of the wrist/arm. He arrows passes into tighter windows and defenders often can’t recover when the receiver separates because Levis is adept at setting, being decisive and getting the ball to the target quickly.
His throwing base and balance is often textbook and when it isn’t — it’s obvious as we’ll discuss in a moment. The positives in terms of technique, his size/frame, his throwing motion, his experience in this offense, his arm strength and the fact he is elevating Kentucky will make him highly attractive to teams and he has arguably the best shot of the 2023 quarterback class to come in and start quickly.
The negative is obvious. He had 13 interceptions last season and it was important to get that number down this year. So far, he has four in three games. Really he only has three because one of those picks was a sack/fumble that looped into the air as he cocked his arm back to throw. Even so — it’s too many.
I will say — I’m not overly concerned by it. There are good and bad interceptions. None of Levis’ are as bad as Anthony Richardson’s (more on him later). Bryce Young has also thrown similar picks to Levis.
I’ll repeat this from my article last week:
— In Patrick Mahomes’ final year at Texas Tech he had a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost seven games in total. He had 25 interceptions in his last two seasons in college.
— In Andrew Luck’s final year at Stanford he ended with a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost two games in his final year despite playing on a loaded Stanford team. He had eight games with 256 passing yards or fewer.
— Josh Allen had 21 interceptions in his final two years in college. He had a completion percentage of just 56.3%. He had three games in 2017 with sub-100 passing yards and he started his final season with six picks in his first seven games.
— Russell Wilson had 25 interceptions in his final two years at NC State. He never had a completion percentage above 60% at NC State. He had 11 games at Wisconsin where he threw 255 yards or fewer — including six sub-200 yard games. He also lost three games in his final season at Wisconsin.
If Levis was being reckless, indecisive, misreading coverages and costing his team games — it would be a worry. I think the reality has been very different.
On his first pick it was a good play by the defender. He tried to look someone off in the red zone, then snap his head back round to the left and throw. It’s a risky play-call because you have to hold the right side for longer than you’d want and then throw almost blind to the slant from the left. The defender stuck in coverage well, the receiver didn’t run through his route and it led to a pick.
Rich Scangarello, who doesn’t mince his words or protect Will Levis during interviews, blamed the receiver for this pick in his post-game interview.
He was critical of Levis for the second pick and rightly so. He doesn’t step into the throw, he’s leaning back and it sails on him. The pass flies over the head of the intended target and it’s an easy interception. That’s bad execution from the QB, poor technique.
Here’s the thing though. Can you teach a quarterback with generally good technique most of the time to make sure he steps into a throw like this to avoid making a similar mistake in the future? Of course. If Levis’ technique was generally bad and he needed his mechanics re-working — that’s a problem. If he doesn’t read a defender and throws it straight to him, that’s a problem.
These picks don’t bother me in terms of draft stock. I want to see Levis throw fewer interceptions, 100%. To me it feels completely fixable though and everything else is really good.
With 6:50 left in the first half he broke away from pressure, set off running and picked up 24-yards. He can do that because he’s an elite athlete. His two passing touchdowns were made to look simple and easy — a whip-route and a fade both in the red zone.
He threw a post with great velocity over the middle and there were multiple examples of him going through progressions and reaching a third target. Few college QB’s do that.
I think a ton of teams needing a quarterback next year are going to look at Levis and feel he has the physical tools, the athleticism, the knowledge of pro-concepts, the technique and the personality to lead their team. And these aspects will outweigh the things he needs to improve. As such, he will be a very high pick.
But there’s no doubt he can play better than he has so far and I can’t say with conviction that he can be ‘special’. I do think, however, that he’s very capable of coming into the league and playing at a reasonable level somewhat quickly.
A final note on this game. The referee misspoke on a penalty and accidentally said, “Piss interference, defense”. It made me chuckle.
Bryce Young had a mixed game
Having led Alabama to a comeback win against Texas with one wonderful quarter of football offsetting three awful quarters, Young had a similar fluctuating performance in a blowout win against UL Monroe.
He threw a terrible interception in the first half. He had all the time in the world in the pocket but decided to scramble anyway. He tried to create something and just lobbed it downfield recklessly. He didn’t come close to giving his receiver a chance to make a play — it just went directly to the defender. It was a hopeless throw-and-hope play.
You can’t make that mistake under no pressure.
Strangely, it benefitted Alabama. Two plays later Will Anderson caught a tipped pass and returned it for a pick-six. Then, on the corresponding series, Alabama blocked a punt and returned it for a touchdown. The pick sparked a 14-0 run.
Young showed off his creative ability as a runner on a scrambling TD, twisting away from two defenders to reach the end zone. He also had another sort-off turnover when he threw incomplete on fourth down. It was a rushed play as they tried to get the snap off before the end of the first quarter. Nobody was ready, Young threw it in a hurry and the receiver was nowhere near it. Careless.
There’s a lot of RPO stuff in Alabama’s scheme which I’m not a huge fan of. It’s going to be a lot harder for Young to read defenders in the NFL than it is at Alabama against these overmatched opponents.
He had a tremendous deep pass down the right side of the field — throwing to his tight end in a favourable matchup. Young showed ideal ball placement and a good arm. On the next play he directed traffic to throw to an uncovering receiver in the end zone.
He had a second interception on an inaccurate pass thrown high and slightly behind. It was tipped and picked off. His third score was a dump-off into the flat and the running back ran for 40 YAC.
There’s no doubt he’s a very naturally talented player. He’s creative and can be very exciting to watch. However — it also has to be noted that he has not started as well as he ended last year. He benefits greatly from superior pass-pro and playing on a loaded team. And there isn’t anyone like him in the league. He is very slight and undersized.
What is his upside? How good can he be? These are very difficult questions to answer.
While it’s very tempting to point to the likes of Kyler Murray as evidence for smaller players succeeding — Young lacks the ‘wow’ factor that Murray had or the unique physical tools. I think Young is better than Tua Tagovailoa was at Alabama — but I’m not sure he has the upside of Murray or Russell Wilson either.
Jaren Hall continues to impress
BYU laid an egg against Oregon (which was disappointing seeing as I took them +4) but despite the lopsided game, Hall actually played quite well.
When I watched his 2021 tape I thought it was underwhelming. I’ve watched all three of his games this season and I like what I’ve seen. He has a good arm (looks better than a year ago), he’s creative, mobile, throws with touch but can put a bit of mustard on things when needed and he lofts passes into good areas similar to Russell Wilson at Wisconsin.
He’s an older player — a year older than even Will Levis. He’ll be a 25-year-old rookie. I don’t think he’s necessarily a first round prospect but this is the problem with quarterback assessment. We only ever tend to talk about players in first round or undraftable terms.
Hall could be a day two type who can stick. He’s intriguing to me. There’s something there.
Tyler Van Dyke is being let down
Not to make excuses for him. He can and should be playing better.
However — I detest the Mario Cristobal offense.
Everything is painfully conservative. Cristobal makes Pete Carroll look like a maverick renegade in terms of balls-to-the-wall high-octane new-age football.
Case in point — they were trailing 17-3 late in the game. They’re in the red zone. They ran on 3rd and goal from about eight yards out and didn’t score. Then kicked a field goal.
I’m not a Miami Hurricanes fan — but I was shouting at the screen at this point.
Over and over again they kept throwing passes behind the line of scrimmage and hoping for YAC. As we saw in Oregon with Cristobal — it’s a whole bunch of runs, screens, slants, extended hand-offs and it’s boring.
When they needed points, they kept kicking. Despite the fact their kicker was having a rough day.
TVD burst onto the scene last season throwing all over the field, regularly topping 300 yards and looking brilliant. Now he struggles to get to 200 yards, doesn’t look remotely comfortable and his draft stock is taking a hammering.
Even so, he still has to do better.
He almost threw an interception on his first drive failing to read the safety properly and throwing to the left front corner of the end zone. His base was poor, he took a big stride forwards to step into the throw which impacted his velocity and he was lucky the safety didn’t pick it off.
He nearly threw another pick to the right sideline. He didn’t step into his throw properly, double clutched just as he did vs Southern Miss last week. He tossed an ugly looking throw and again was fortunate not to turn it over.
There were other times where he missed the target and his radar felt off throughout. He did also suffer from some bad drops (including a particularly egregious flub by the running back on 3rd and 9 on the second drive).
His top receiver and roommate was also injured and out of this game.
It wasn’t all bad and Miami mixed in some good running with the occasional flourish in the passing game. He chucked a nice wheel route to the tight end despite facing heavy pressure.
Yet Cristobal played the entire game like they were leading by three points, not trailing throughout.
I would hate to have him coaching my team. It’s boring. The entire game plan is frustrating and dull. The offense doesn’t attack opponents and is safe. TVD is not thriving in this system, just like Justin Herbert didn’t.
An easy day for C.J. Stroud
A game against Toledo was never going to trouble Stroud but it was an opportunity to show off his physical qualities again.
He flashed wonderful footwork to throw a brilliant post to set up the first touchdown — a red zone shot which is really well caught by Marvin Harrison Jr. He looked brilliant on play-action — dropping, setting and throwing with accuracy, velocity and base.
Stroud had a ‘wow’ touchdown on the move. He scrambled and extended the play then threw from the right side to the one area of the end zone where his receiver could make the catch. It was terrific improv, skill and creativity.
He throws out-routes with impressive ease.
He also had a somewhat dangerous, fortunate downfield shot to Harrison Jr which was almost picked-off but ended up being a big positive play.
His third and fourth scores were an easy red zone touchdown to Harrison Jr who was wide open, then he threw an equally easy red zone pass to Julian Fleming. It was 42-14 at half-time. The fifth touchdown, again, was a very easy wide open throw in the red zone.
It was very easy but also, I suppose, another strong showcase of what he’s capable of. Ohio State don’t have a really difficult game until Michigan in late November. They have some Big-10 games that shouldn’t be difficult (but you never know) against Wisconsin, at Michigan State and at Penn State.
Stroud has a great opportunity to dominate the Heisman conversation and have an undefeated regular season. There’s no doubting the immense physical talent he has. There are special throws in his arsenal. We just need to see him consistently do it against tougher opponents — while improving his processing and intermediate accuracy in those contests.
And that’s the key thing. It’s all well and good doing it against Arkansas State and Toledo. He was ‘off’ against Notre Dame. How will he perform in his more challenging Big-10 contests and, eventually, the playoffs? Consistency and exciting plays in those games will define how high he goes.
Some thoughts on Michael Pennix Jr
Although this is a Seahawks Draft Blog — I’ve never really had Husky or Coug fans pushing for their own.
Until this year.
I’m asked a lot — on Twitter, via email, on YouTube — about Cam Ward (who I haven’t watched) and Pennix Jr.
Firstly, I thought Pennix Jr played very well against Michigan State. Washington haven’t been a fun or interesting team in a long time. They look fun again.
However — let’s not forget that Michigan State had the worst passing defense in college football last season. It looks no better in 2022. They were a fraud being ranked at #11. The good news is — Ken Walker clearly carried that team last year and now he’s in Seattle.
On top of that, Kalen DeBoer’s scheme is very quarterback friendly. He was appointed for his work at Fresno State where he made Jake Haener look good. The design and scheming is terrific, modern and a real positive for UW. They are in good hands.
But I think people are going to start talking up Pennix Jr as a major pro-prospect and we really need to be careful with that. He is a player who achieved very little in four years with Indiana. Last year he had four touchdowns and seven picks before getting hurt. He’s had three major injuries in his career. He’s playing in a system that does a lot of the heavy lifting and doesn’t demand too much from the quarterback in terms of progressions.
He’s in a scheme that is great for quarterbacks and he’s enjoyed playing the opponents he has so far. Right now — I’d suggest just enjoying the games and letting this thing roll.
It’s time to let Anthony Richardson be
Despite all of the impressive physical tools — Richardson isn’t ready for the NFL.
He needs to focus on development this year.
He is yet to throw a touchdown pass and has now delivered four interceptions. He played badly again in a nail-biting Florida win against South Florida. A quick reminder — USF were 28-0 down in the first quarter against BYU two weeks ago.
Richardson did everything he could to help the Bulls pull off an upset.
He threw a dreadful interception on 3rd and 7 with 12:16 remaining in the third quarter. He progressed to his second read and yet I have no idea what he saw to make him think, ‘I’m throwing this’. He chucked it over the middle and didn’t see the defender, who was just stood there waiting to pick it off. It was a horrible mistake and showed the great processing we saw in week one against Utah was a mirage.
The error blew open the game. Florida was in control and suddenly, they were on the ropes.
Then, in an attempted recovery, he helped Florida to first and goal at the five with 7:58 remaining. Richardson tried to throw a back shoulder fade to the left front corner of the end zone. The defender just read it, gained position and intercepted the pass. He needed to throw the pass higher with more loft.
Florida escaped with a 31-28 win because South Florida duly threw a pick of their own and blew a chance to pull off the upset.
Richardson finished 10/18 for 112 yards, a QBR of 11.6 and again he was a non-factor as a runner — going 7/24.
He simply isn’t ready to be talked about as a NFL prospect. He might just be a great athlete, to be honest. We have seen nothing in the last two weeks to think he should even be on the pro-radar. He has the tools, now he needs to become an actual quarterback.
He has a career TD/INT ratio of 7/10. He is off the radar until he plays far better than this. He looks like a player with a handful of starts. At this rate, he might be benched soon.
Closing thoughts
Based on what we’re seeing so far — I’m not convinced Tyler Van Dyke and Anthony Richardson will even declare. That could create a three horse race at the top of the first round involving Levis, Stroud and Young.
A lot of teams need a quarterback and appear to be readying themselves to draft one in 2023.
It’s still far too early to say definitively how easy it’ll be for the Seahawks to find an answer — whether that’s based on how the prospects perform or how many games Seattle wins.
However — based on what we saw in Santa Clara — they are going to need to find impact game-changers who dramatically increase the talent level on this team moving forwards.
The plan to do so — moving on from Wilson, getting a bunch of picks — is sound.
Actually being able to execute is a whole different ball game. Ask the 49ers how easy it is to find a quarterback, after they spent a kings ransom to acquire Trey Lance. Ask the Colts — who go from one tired quarterback option to the next year after year. Ask the Bears — who haven’t had a franchise quarterback in decades.
The assumption that solutions in the draft would be readily available was comforting and helped justify the direction. It might not be quite as simple as some perhaps considered.
As such, Seahawks fans deserve to see more than they did on the field on Sunday. As they try to see a future that involves competitive football again — the baffling trick-plays in the red zone, the poor tackling, the six quarters of scoreless, impotent offense where they struggle to cross half-way (let alone threaten the scoreboard), the inability to game-plan D.K. Metcalf into any kind of role, the missing-in-action running game — it all needs to be far better to warrant faith in this process.
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The memes. The graphics. The GIF’s. The post-game interviews.
The former team mates gloating.
The smiles, the jubilation.
‘Nobody thought we could win this game!’
It all felt a bit much for 1/17th of the regular season.
I appreciate it was a big game with meaning. The NFL schedule-makers played a blinder. Russell Wilson’s return was always going to be billed as more than just a game.
I didn’t quite expect the Seahawks to treat it as such, though.
Not to the extent they did.
The push-back for my video in the week wasn’t particularly well received. I wanted to beat the Niners. They’re a fun team to beat.
The risk of an emotional let down was always high after a Monday night opener. Yet it felt the Seahawks, as I said, turned a victory lap into a victory mile.
My fear wasn’t a let-down performance, rather than a melt-down.
Or a beat-down.
And that’s what happened.
The 27-7 scoreline made this one look better than it was.
This was a thoroughly miserable experience.
The tackling was generally awful on defense again. There were blown coverages. A lot of the same defensive issues we’ve seen in previous years were present once more. There’s no obvious pass-rushing plan and players you want to see step up (Darrell Taylor) aren’t getting it done.
On offense, they’ve now not scored a single point in six quarters. That first-half flourish against Denver looks like a mirage. It appears to be the benefit of weeks of scripting and preparing — or Denver being rubbish. Maybe both.
The Seahawks came into the season with Pete Carroll declaring they were ‘going to run the heck out of the ball’. Two games in and they can’t run. Teams don’t respect the pass, they load up the box and attack. All very predictable.
Geno Smith can complete the odd pass but, remarkably, he is still Geno Smith. They also seemingly have no idea — short of a miraculous trick-play that was brought back due to a rookie error — how to game-plan D.K. Metcalf into relevance.
When they get into the red zone, they opt to run back-to-back ‘wildcat’ snaps and ask Deejay Dallas to throw the ball (with a predictable result).
I’ve said countless times this year. My expectations couldn’t be lower for the 2022 season. But can we please avoid nonsense like that trick play?
It was embarrassingly bad.
I’m ready for a basic brand of football. I can live with Pete-ball.
But let’s actually do it.
And as part of the bargain — the bargain that means low expectations — I want to avoid dumb decisions, missed tackles, ill-disciplined and ill-timed penalties, I want to see something that resembles ‘different’ on defense and signs of development.
I don’t want to see Nick Bosa unblocked over and over again (whose idea was that?).
I suppose you could cling to a silver-lining that it could’ve been worse. Certainly, there’s absolutely no justification that a blocked field goal could get the Seahawks back in this game. Yet San Francisco’s inability to finish things earlier kept things somewhat alive.
But there’s no hope — none — that when this team puts itself in a hole they’ll be able on offense to claw things back.
It’s also a legit concern that an offense looking this bad will develop anyone.
They finished with 210 total yards — 38 of which came in garbage time at the end. A further 56 yards came in garbage time at the end of the first half. Theoretically, they produced the grand total of 116 meaningful yards today.
Losing this game isn’t the problem. Losing this way kind of is.
“They wrote me off, I aint write back though”
“Nobody thought we could win this game”
The Seahawks might’ve won the only game they really care about in week one. This afternoon in California was a glimpse into the future. What we will need to endure for most of 2022.
I’m ready for it. Are others?
And if we’re going to do this, can we have honest and open conversations about it along the way? Because it’s not just about getting through one year. It’s about whether the people building this team, organising this team, putting this together are truly right for the task.
A performance like this, for me, makes it a conversation we should have as we go along.
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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel
Fact:Pete Carroll has never had a losing season against the NFC West in his Seahawks tenure.
How has he been able to maintain such an impressive stretch of success?Answer:He gets to play the San Francisco 49ers twice a year.
Every team has a nemesis and Pete Carroll and the Seahawks have been the Niners’ kryptonite for a whole decade. In their last 20 matchups, the Seahawks have won an incredible 17 of those games.
It is as good a record of success in a head-to-head matchup over a ten-year period as any we are likely to see.And 49er fans know it.
A brief anecdote, if you will allow it.I was able to fly to San Francisco for the Week 10 Monday Night game in 2019.The Niners were 8-0 and were delivering on their promise after a 4-12 season the year prior.The Seahawks were 7-2 and needed to win to keep pace.
The atmosphere in the stadium was electric.Both teams came to play.
As you recall, it was a game of punches and counterpunches.The Seahawk offense sputtered early but were gifted 7 points by Jadeveon Clowney recovering a fumble for a touchdown.
The Niners responded by stripping D.K. Metcalf of the ball at the 1-yard line as he reached for the goal line.And so on and so forth.
They had a replacement kicker who heroically tied the game with a clutch field goal as time expired, then blew a chance to win the game in overtime with the worst kick I have ever seen in person.
After that, everyone in the stadium knew what was coming next.But they were forced to watch it unfold and could not look away.Russell Wilson led a game-winning drive that slowly drained the life out of the home fans in the stadium like Chinese water torture.As Jason Meyers kicked the winning field goal, Wilson and the Seahawks danced on the field in delight.
A perfect season, a chance to put the division in a headlock and for one moment the golden opportunity to finally wipe the smug smile off that gum-chewing so-and-so’s face had been snatched from them in painful fashion.
It just became too much to bear for one Niner fan exiting the stadium.He was quietly walking by himself a few steps in front of my friends and I, shoulders slumped in exhausted grief.Then, out of nowhere, he decided he had had enough.With an energy that came from deep down inside, he mustered everything he had and shouted with all his might “F*** PETE CARROLL !!” at the top of his lungs into the void.He took a breath, slumped his shoulders once again and resumed walking quietly.
Causing that kind of existential dread in your opponent’s fanbase is not something that happens every day.The Seahawks need to do their level best keep making Niner fans shaking their heads well into 2023.
While the Seahawks have been typically dominated by the Rams and split with the Cardinals, seeing the 49ers on the schedule – even with the talent on their roster and in the coaches’ room – is a welcome sight.If the Seahawks want to keep that division record streak alive, they are going to have to win Sunday.Which begs the question…
How Have They Been Doing It?
Oddly enough the Niners had a near-identical performance in a loss against Chicago in Week One that Denver had against the Seahawks.Both the Broncos and the Niners:
-Ran the ball effectively
-Outgained their opponent by over 100 yards
-Possessed the ball almost exactly 7 minutes more than their opponent
-Converted nearly 50% of their third downs
Those are normally the prime ingredients of a solid win.How did they both lose their games then?
That is precisely how the Seahawks beat Denver on Monday and how Chicago beat San Francisco on Sunday.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, is in one snapshot exactly why the Seahawks are 5-1 against the Niners in their last six games.
San Francisco has consistently outgained the Seahawks in yards.They have also accrued more penalties and turned the ball over more times than the Seahawks have.
This, oddly enough, is where the Seahawks’ defensive formula of conceding a ton of yards, keeping the game in front of them and stiffening in the red zone works for them.The opposing offense is on the field so often, they are bound to make a mistake sooner or later, be it by running out of downs, taking a drive-killing penalty or committing a turnover.
That is why Jimmy Garoppolo is on the bench in favor of Trey Lance. Until Trey Lance matures, forcing him into a place where he cannot make many explosive plays, so rather he needs to make very good decisions play after play after play will continue to be an important part of their success.
Of course, it only works to their advantage if the Seahawks continue to play a cleaner game than the Niners…
Play Smart
They beat Denver Monday by being far better in this area.But let’s be right:Denver set a low, low bar.Between twelve flags, two back-breaking turnovers, some bad Russell Wilson throws and a bone-headed decision to try an NFL-record field goal instead of giving your new quarterback a chance to be the hero, it would be easy to overlook the areas where the Seahawks need to improve.
D.K. Metcalf had a fumble that Denver recovered.Rashaad Penny got stripped at the end of a brilliant run (thankfully Austin Blythe was hustling downfield and fell on the ball).Geno Smith got strip-sacked and the Seahawks recovered the ball.He also did not execute a quarterback sneak very well on 4th and inches.Tariq Woolen gave up 52 yards on two pass interference flags.Both safeties had chances to intercept the ball and failed to make the game-changing play.
There are many opportunities for improvement.
And not to hammer the obvious once again but when you do not have a field-tilting franchise quarterback who can pull the game out late in the fourth quarter to cover over all those early-game mistakes, the impact of those bad plays is magnified.
They will need to be sharper on both sides of the ball if they are to beat San Francisco Sunday.
As well they will need a real commitment to being the superior ground team…
Beat Them On the Ground
The Seahawks have consistently been the better team in their matchup when it comes to running the football.While San Francisco has gotten more yards in the passing game (and therefore more overall yards), the Seahawks have been consistently been able to stick it to them by running the ball far more effectively.
How much better?In those last 6 games they have on average run for 30 more yards than the Niners.They have topped 100 yards rushing as a team in all 6 of those games, whereas San Francisco has only been able to do it twice.
Both teams are seriously committed to the run game.There really is no difference in how often they choose to run when playing each other.The Seahawks have just been more efficient, and therefore better, running an average of 4.25 yards per carry, where the Niners can only muster 3.75 yards.
This is where their model really works.30 more yards rushing than your opponent in every game means more possession time.Which puts more pressure on the Niner offense to move down the field quickly when they finally do get the ball.Which is all the more frustrating when the Seahawks have built a defense to not get built deep and forces you to eat clock while you dink and dunk down the field.Which the Niners have struggled to do without a top quarterback at the helm.It is like being slowly suffocated by a snake coiled around its prey.
It is a trap that the Niners fall into time and time again.
Of course, there is no assurance the Seahawks will be able to do this again on Sunday.They have to earn it.
Rashaad Penny at times looked like he was just a break here or there from resuming his torrid play on Monday.However, the Seahawks only gave him 12 carries against the Broncos.While he did get 60 yards, they were hard earned.Penny only recorded 11 total yards before contact.That means on overage he had less than a yard per carry before he was contacted by a defender.Denver did an excellent job on the interior of the line keeping Penny from getting into gear.
It may be tough sledding again this week.David Montgomery is a good inside runner and could not get much going against the Niner defense.On the bright side, perhaps the Seahawks will get Damien Lewis and Ken Walker back from injury this week.
Whatever the case, the Seahawk offense is going to really need the running game to be effective.
On the flip side, that also means containing the Niners’ run game.
Elijah Mitchell will not play Sunday after sustaining an injury.That likely means that Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance will be the focus of their ground game.
Let’s look at Deebo’s carries Sunday against the Bears.What do you see from his run chart?He was primarily attacking the edges of the defense:
If they want to continue that trend, that is going to be a real challenge for the Seahawks .
Pete Carroll identified that on Wednesday when asked about defending the run against Denver:
“We were not consistent.We gave up too many plays on the edge and it wasn’t as good as it needed to be.”
His body language, short answer and wanting to move along to the next question said more than his words did.He expected better play there on Monday.
Samuel is so hard to defend in the run game because of his unique blend of speed and toughness.Watch him get to the edge Sunday before Al-Quadin Muhammad – who practically has a free release – can even get set (and give Eddie Jackson a serious pop at the goal line just for good measure).
This is where the change to a 3-4 defense really needs to work.In a 4-3 the edge players are bigger and more physical.In the 3-4 they are quicker to get to the outside and keep the runners from exploiting those wide edges like Samuel did on that touchdown run.Nwosu, Taylor, and Mafe will need to have an active game and help reroute runners inside where players like Jordyn Brooks are waiting for them.
Thankfully, they will get some edge support from the corners in the running game.Watch Tariq Woolen knock KJ Hamler on his butt and show no hesitance about going head on with Javonte Williams on Monday.
I am delighted that the hard-nosed physicality I saw in Woolen in practice is showing up when the games count.The defense definitely showed more intensity Monday night than we saw in 2021.Here is hoping it continues.
What about Trey Lance’s rushes?He had 13 of the Niners’ 37 rushes on Sunday.Six of those rushes gained first downs for the offense.I watched them all.I would say half those runs were scrambles to escape pressure, a quarter were designed runs, and the rest were ‘if your first read is not there and there is an opening, go’ type options.
This was his first game as the unquestioned starter and with the inclement weather, Kyle Shanahan gave him a simpler plan to work with.He took 51 of the 67 snaps from shotgun formation and Shanahan called for several quick throws and the option to take off and run.
The inside defensive lineman must be effective in order to defend Lance.If they keep him hemmed in, his inexperience may really shine through if his first read is not available and there is no hole to escape to.More than once on Sunday the Bears were able to frustrate him into dumping the ball off for minimal gains or poor off-schedule throws that missed their target (9 of his 28 throws were classed Bad Throws by PFR).
Again, this is where the 3 of the 3-4 should be advantageous.Al Woods, Poona Ford, Bryan Mone and Quentin Jefferson should be able to control the gaps.They did not accomplish this very well against the Broncos.Their PFF scores for Monday were far below the standard they need to be.Nobody broke a 60 in run defense or pass rushing except Mone who graded a 70, albeit in only 4 pass rush snaps.
The Seahawks have a fair chunk of cap invested there.They need a better return on Sunday.
The front seven will need to be very, very sharp as a group.Last Sunday, Samuel averaged 4.3 yards before contact on his runs.Elijah Mitchell averaged 4.7.Those are insane numbers.The best full-time runners in the NFL usually average about 2.4-2.6 yards before contact over the season.
They demonstrate the blocking and scheming prowess that Kyle Shanahan and the offensive line bring to the table.
A reasonable expectation would be the front seven cut those numbers in half. While that seems to be a high bar to set, history tells us that Pete Carroll and the defense have not only been able to reach it against San Francisco but to clear it with room to spare.Here is hoping they will be able to do that on Sunday and leave Niner fans in despair once again.
Here are the games I am planning to watch over the weekend:
Youngstown vs Kentucky UL Monroe vs Alabama South Florida vs Florida Miami vs Texas A&M Washington vs Michigan State
Quarterback watch
Sadly I don’t have access to BYU vs Oregon but this is the game I wanted to watch (along with Miami vs Texas A&M). Jaren Hall doesn’t have the stature or the traits to warrant first round consideration. Yet there’s something about his game which is intriguing. I mentioned this week that some of his throws — in terms of loft, placement and touch — are reminiscent of Russell Wilson at Wisconsin.
He led his team to a big win against Baylor last week and Oregon will be a reasonable test on the road. I think if you’re looking for mid-round alternatives to the big name 2023 eligible QB’s, Hall is possibly the one to keep an eye on.
Will Levis shouldn’t have too much bother handling Youngstown and by the time I get home from work, he might already be sat on the bench relaxing. I’ll have the replay of Kentucky’s latest game to watch back at some point over the weekend to see if he can pad the stats and get into a good groove against an overmatched opponent.
It’ll be a similar story for Bryce Young as Alabama take on UL Monroe. I’ll watch that game until Young inevitably takes a seat.
South Florida vs Florida intrigues me because it’s a chance for Anthony Richardson to bounce back from the adversity of last week. I watched South Florida’s game against BYU this week to watch Jaren Hall and they were 28-0 down in the first quarter. Thus, this is the ideal chance for Richardson to hit back.
Tyler Van Dyke’s game against Texas A&M is box office viewing. The Aggies lost to Appalachian State last week and will be eager to bounce back. This is a team that has pumped resources into its facilities, Head Coach and recruiting class (they just had the best ever ranked recruiting class). Losing back-to-back games will be unfathomable. Yet Miami are sufficiently solid and have a top quarterback — so they have every chance to win (and TVD has ever chance to bolster his stock).
C.J. Stroud’s Ohio State face Toledo in another showcase for their talented QB. Can he throw some more of those gorgeous passes we saw last week?
The struggling Spencer Rattler, who should be off the NFL radar by this point, gets the pleasure of facing Georgia today. Is Stetson Bennett worthy of mid-to-late round consideration? He’s had a good start and while he lacks physical prowess, he’s more agile and shifty in the pocket than you realise.
UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson shouldn’t be troubled by South Alabama. There’s no game for Stanford and Tanner McKee — they next face Washington in a week. Arkansas and K.J. Jefferson should make short work of Missouri State.
I’ll have notes up on the blog ASAP. Also stay tuned for Curtis’ latest watch-notes on the Niners game.
And if you missed it yesterday, here’s my 49ers preview with the always brilliant Rob ‘Stats’ Guerrera…
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