A few people have asked about this and after a further tweet today, I thought I’d address it in a quick article…
Let’s say these guys are all gone at 9: the four pass rushers, Neal & Ickey, and Sauce & Stingley. Who would you take then? I fear the answer could be Penning or…gulp…Kyle Hamilton.
The chances of this happening, in my opinion, are extremely remote. It would likely require the top two cornerbacks going very early — but I don’t see the Giants, for example, taking Derek Stingley over a pass rusher.
I actually think it’s more likely both Stingley and Sauce Gardner are there at #9. The Giants potentially trading James Bradbury pre-draft might change that. I’m going to publish a mock draft tomorrow that runs through a scenario that will flesh out why a ‘worst case scenario’ such as the one above isn’t very likely.
If it did happen, here’s what I think the options are…
Personally, I would consider pivoting to the Georgia duo of Devonte Wyatt and Jordan Davis. The Seahawks have added bodies to their defensive front but the key should be to add difference making talent. The pair have Geno Atkins and Haloti Ngata-level potential.
The only offensive tackle they’d probably consider is Trevor Penning. He has the size, mentality and explosive traits they like. I’ve written a few times why I’d rather not go in this direction (I don’t think he or Charles Cross are worth a top-10 pick) but it would be an option to them.
They could also trade down. I’ll run down a few potential targets in that scenario in a moment.
I do think, however, that some Seahawks fans at the moment are too eager to look for a looming crisis.
I understand why. I’ve been a vocal critic of Pete Carroll and John Schneider over the last two years and unquestionably they botched the reset from 2018-onwards.
However, I also think this situation suits them better. I don’t think they were ever comfortable building around an expensive franchise quarterback. Neither was Russell Wilson comfortable being forced to work within a structure he had little faith in.
It created a dynamic where the team was pulling in different directions — with three individuals having their own vision for the future and all three trying to keep things together.
Now, it’s a clean break. I think Carroll and Schneider are better builders than maintainers. The only evidence I have to back that up is what happened between 2010 and 2013 — but it’s a pretty good example.
I’m going to let this play out, enjoy the draft, not worry too much about what may or may not happen and just go with the flow. This next month, in anticipation of a crucial draft, might be the most fun you get out of the Seahawks in 2022 (well, unless they beat the Niners twice again).
There’s plenty of time to critique and judge what they decide to do. If they get this wrong, having traded Wilson away, you won’t need a draft blog to drum up critical analysis of the Seattle braintrust. They know they need to get this right.
For now, let’s talk about possibilities, not issues that aren’t here yet.
So who would they look at if they did move down?
I suppose you could extend this out to who they’ll look at if they acquire extra stock. It’s at least plausible, I suppose, Philadelphia might be a team that enters any D.K. Metcalf chatter if the Seahawks decide they don’t want to pay $22-25m for a receiver. That would mean an extra first in the late teens.
The names already mentioned above would be in the equation if they were still available.
I think the Seahawks would give strong consideration to someone like Zion Johnson. I thought his Senior Bowl performance was overrated but the simple fact is he ticks all the boxes for Seattle. He has great size and length (34 inch arms). He’s one of the most explosive testers in the last decade of the combine — scoring a 3.33 in TEF and 103.4 in weighted TEF. If they want quickness and agility in their new blocking scheme — he also ran a 4.46 short shuttle at 312lbs.
A player with Johnson’s profile gets drafted early. Don’t be surprised if he goes in the teens. I think New England at #21 will be his floor.
If the Seahawks find themselves picking in that range, they might decide to take a chance on his physical talent and upside. Then they could try him at guard or center.
It’s not a huge need but it’s a pick that fits based on their trends. They had a presence at Boston College’s pro-day and I think they’ll be extremely high on Johnson, possibly considering him one of the top prospects in the draft.
There are numerous pass rushers they could consider. I suspect two likely options would be Arnold Ebiketie and Sam Williams because they have the length and traits they covet. I am a huge Boye Mafe fan but he did measure with sub-33 inch arms. It’s a shame because there’s a lot to like with Mafe and he could remain on their radar.
Depending on how far they trade back, Abraham Lucas could be another possibility. I also think Trent McDuffie could have some appeal.
The more I think about it — if they ended up with a pick in the teens, I think Johnson and Mafe might be the two names to focus on (if arm length isn’t seen as an issue with Mafe).
It’s all a moot point though and a discussion we can return to if Metcalf is dealt. I think the options at #9 will be enticing. Either one of the pass rushers will last to #9 (Jermaine Johnson is the most likely) or they will be able to pivot to a great cornerback.
It’s something he’s made reference to many times. Even when they added Jacob Eason he spoke about how highly he was recruited. Talent is talent.
I can well imagine Carroll looking at a former #1 recruit in the country in Derek Stingley and thinking — ‘I want to help him achieve greatness’.
I think he’ll feel the same about Kayvon Thibodeaux for similar reasons.
I suspect the Seahawks are going to shoot for the stars with their top pick and if an opportunity falls to them — just as it did in 2010 with Earl Thomas — they won’t hesitate to make the call.
They didn’t trade down that year, when they were starting their build, because they knew what they’d be passing up at #6 and #14.
They added quality.
I think that will be the aim again this year.
And if you want to generate some buzz and excitement for your team in 2022 — the prospect of Derek Stingley Jr facing off against D.K. Metcalf in training camp is pure box-office.
A quick note to finish — PFN are reporting that Percy Butler will take an official-30 visit to Seattle. It’s the second confirmed official visit, along with Sauce Gardner.
Butler is a player I’ve mocked to the Seahawks in the later rounds. He’s a fearless special teams gunner. Keep him on your radar as an option. We know they put a lot of emphasis on special teams.
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What the Seahawks do at cornerback is an interesting talking point.
For years they’ve preferred to wait until day three of the draft to get ‘their guys’. There was a lot of early success doing this but more recently, they’ve struggled to add starting talent. Hopefully Tre Brown is going to be a welcome return to form, if he recovers fully from injury.
Speaking to Coach Jim Leavitt recently (listen to the interview here) he highlighted the importance of talent at cornerback within the 3-4 scheme. If Seattle wants to be aggressive against the pass and the run by playing seven in the box most of the time, it’ll put a degree of stress on the secondary.
Leavitt said it was crucial to have good safety play and the Seahawks have invested significantly at the position. The corners also need to be able to stick in man and can be somewhat isolated.
If the Seahawks head in this direction schematically, the old adage of ‘not getting beat over the top’ won’t be enough.
It makes you wonder whether they’ll place a greater premium on the position.
Part of the projection process is working out what is actually available. I know a lot of people think the Seahawks are going to take a left tackle or quarterback at #9. The options are simply not very good. It’d be a huge reach for any of the QB’s and players like Charles Cross (often paired with Seattle) are just overrated. He doesn’t have the size, athleticism or explosive traits the Seahawks have sought.
I feel pretty comfortable based on my own draft work and consulting others who have far more experience than I do, that the top of the board is going to be focused on pass rushers. Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Jermaine Johnson will go quickly.
Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu will also both be drafted early (probably to play guard).
Then there are two cornerbacks — Sauce Gardner and Derek Stingley. Some think Stingley will last into the teens after a difficult last two years with injury and some underwhelming tape as LSU collapsed as a team.
We should remember we’re only two years removed from Stingley looking like the future at cornerback in the NFL. He’s got a pro-day in April where he’ll likely match his SPARQ performance of a 4.30 forty and a 42 inch vertical.
Here he is covering Ja’Marr Chase in practise at LSU:
According to PFF, here are the top-graded seasons by a LSU defender since 2014:
Derek Stingley (2019) – 91.7 Jamal Adams (2016) – 91.4 Tre’Davious White (2016) – 90.2 Devin White (2018) – 90.0
If the Titans are willing to take Caleb Farley at #22 overall a year ago with all of his significant injury question marks — I doubt Stingley is going to last as long as some are saying. Cornerback is a position of supreme need and priority. Multiple teams are desperate at corner — the lack of talent is fairly close to the dearth of good left tackles available.
Six cornerbacks went in the top-33 picks last year for a reason.
I’m also unsure why everyone is suddenly so low on Stingley. His tape in 2020 and 2021 is described as ‘good not great’ in his NFL.com profile. I would’ve thought a player with two years of good tape on a miserable team, plus a year of elite tape on a great team, would deserve the benefit of the doubt?
Nobody talks about Aidan Hutchinson’s injury issues at Michigan. Yet for Stingley, it seems enough to kick him down the board.
It’s one of the more confusing ‘draft media’ quibbles this year.
If the Seahawks wanted a player with the talent-level to shut down elite receivers on an island, allowing their front seven to fly to the ball, he would be an outstanding option.
Provided he stays healthy, which is no guarantee with any player, I think there’s a reasonable chance he will be a Stephon Gilmore-level talent — with a shot to be even better.
Micah Parsons fell to pick #12 a year ago due to character concerns and emerged as a star in his rookie season. It won’t be a surprise if something similar happens with Stingley.
He also has strong NFL bloodlines:
I think Stingley is CB1 in this class. A lot of others think Sauce Gardner is the best player at any position but I don’t agree.
I think there’s still a lot to like with Gardner. He has 4.4 speed, great length, he mixes confidence and cockiness in the right kind of way. He flashes star quality but with a degree of self-made-man awareness. Fans will like him, as will coaches. He has swagger and you could imagine him being a central part of a defensive rebuild.
His body-type has been described as ‘classic Seahawks’. That’s true — although he is very skinny and he genuinely looks like the ‘praying mantis’ his team mates refer to him as. There are some technique issues that might get shown up a little more against the top receivers. He’s grabby too — and lacks the natural suddenness of Stingley.
Even so — he will almost certainly go in the top-12 and could be a top-five selection in a class lacking clear and obvious blue-chippers.
All of the ‘met at the combine’ stuff isn’t worth paying attention to. Everyone meets with everyone there. The players you bring into your building to see if they fit in — those are the meetings to raise an eyebrow at.
It suggests the Seahawks are well on top of what could happen at #9.
Regulars to this blog know I want a great pass rusher. That’s Plan A. If one of Johnson or Thibodeaux lasted to the Seahawks, he should be the pick.
Increasingly though, I think it’s likely they’ll be gone. It’s going to take the Panthers and Falcons making obscene quarterback picks at #6 or #8 — or people preferring Gardner or Stingley over the pass rushers — to make it a reality.
I know what some will say. The quarterbacks always go early.
Let’s not forget that in 2013, the first QB to leave the board was E.J. Manuel at #16. I’d compare the 2022 class of QB’s to the 2013 class. It’s not good, despite all of the recent hype generated by throwing sessions in shorts at the combine and pro-day circuit.
The mid-teens or early 20’s area is where I would expect the quarterbacks to start coming off the board.
Keep this in mind — the superior 2023 quarterback class will 100% have an impact. Pete Carroll hinted at it last week, saying their huge amount of stock next year will influence their decision making in this draft. The Giants are trying to sell #5 or #7 for a first next year — probably to position themselves for a QB.
Certain teams such as Pittsburgh will be minded to find a QB for the future now. They’re not planning to be bad in 2022 and they don’t have extra draft stock in 2023. Teams embracing a longer build will definitely be thinking of the options next year.
Scott Fitterer knows Matt Rhule is not for long in Carolina. A desperate QB pick at #6 (their only pick in the first three rounds) is unlikely. The Falcons are embracing a rebuild after whiffing on Deshaun Watson. They might take a shot on a quarterback on day two — but #8? Remember — their new GM is big on ‘best player available’. It’s how he justified taking Kyle Pitts a year ago instead of a quarterback.
If the pass rushers are gone at #9 — it makes absolute sense to look at Gardner or Stingley. In that position, they’ll give you the best chance to come out of this draft with a stud player. And that’s what Seattle needs.
It really is as simple as this — they need a foundational building block. If the pass rush option isn’t there, the best way to find one in this specific draft class is to look at cornerback.
You could also perhaps include Devante Wyatt and Jordan Davis, purely because of their outstanding physical profiles. Yet the Seahawks have loaded up their defensive front already.
Another ‘tell’ in terms of their possible plan could be how they’ve approached free agency.
D.J. Reed called Seattle’s contract offer ‘insulting’ then signed a deal worth $11m a year with the Jets. The #9 pick a year ago, Patrick Surtain, signed a deal worth just $5.2m a year.
Are the Seahawks anticipating taking a corner at #9? And thus, did they offer Reed a comparable contract to the #9 pick? It’s half as much as the deal he got in New York, which would explain Reed’s disdain for the offer. It’s possible the team already had a good feeling they’d be drafting a cornerback early — and the price that comes with that — so they felt little need to go any higher for Reed.
Not only that — their ‘hedge’ signing at pass rusher (Uchenna Nwosu) is costing $9.5m a year for two years. Their hedge at cornerback (Artie Burns) signed a $2m contract for one season.
Little things like that can help you piece together the puzzle.
And while they haven’t signed anyone — hedge or otherwise — at offensive tackle, Carroll revealed his urgency to address that area when he spoke to KJR last week. They do have some money to play with in free agency and are likely working to resolve this as a priority before the draft — with the likes of Duane Brown, Eric Fisher, Darryl Williams and Brandon Shell possibly on the radar.
It does feel like everything is being geared towards creating a new defense. The coaching changes, the scheme tweaks. Now the only thing left is the personnel. Jake Heaps revealed on 710 Seattle Sports that Sean Desai had been convinced to come to the Seahawks on the proviso that key personnel additions were coming. It’s hard to imagine Seattle had Nwosu, Quinton Jefferson and Shelby Harris as their sales pitch.
Giving Desai a fantastic corner prospect to manage in the secondary would make sense and justify his faith in joining the team. Stingley was once seen as the fabled ‘generational talent’. Gardner is an emerging talent. Again — if the top pass rushers are gone, they likely give you the best chance to draft a future all-pro.
The wildcard option might be Trent McDuffie. He’s Lance Zierlein’s #7 overall prospect and generally is being mocked in the mid-first round. I think he’s a terrific player but the type you almost want playing up and around the line — using his outstanding quickness and instincts as a dynamic nickel or hybrid DB. He can play outside but I like the idea of him more as a read/react type. McDuffie also has tremendous character and he’ll be a safe pick. I’m just not sure he’ll be an all-pro outside corner within four years.
What would it mean for the pass rush if they take a corner at #9? That’s a difficult one to work out. There’s certainly enough depth that someone appealing might be there at #40. It’s also possible we’ll see a huge rush on the position in round one — with as many as nine coming off the board before Seattle’s second round picks.
I’ve been assuming Sam Williams might be there at #40 and #41. After an impressive combine and pro-day, it seems like there’s sufficient buzz for him in round one. He’s being heavily connected to Dallas at #24.
Strictly from a football perspective, he has a lot of what Seattle needs. He’s long, athletic, a tremendous pass rusher, he’s quick and explosive. But he might not be an option — either due to character flags or being off the board.
Another player teams will be investigating closely is Adam Anderson. He was suspended by Georgia after voluntarily handing himself into the police following an accusation of rape.
Anderson has denied the allegation. This article from ESPN details what Anderson is accused of. Let me make it clear — I don’t want anyone ‘debating’ the accusation in the comments section. This is a sensitive subject and should be handled appropriately.
Anderson’s attorney has filed a motion for the case to be dismissed. In February the court granted a motion modifying the conditions of Anderson’s bond that allowed him to return to the Athens area for a workout in front of NFL scouts. This took place last week. He was previously barred from appearing in Athens and Oconee County except for legal and academic matters.
At his workout, which was watched by 17 teams, he ran a forty in the 4.5’s and jumped a 39 inch vertical and an 11-1 broad.
The outcome of the case will determine what happens next. If it’s dropped, as his attorney has requested, then teams will do their own internal investigations and decide whether they are comfortable drafting him.
I have no idea whether the Seahawks would have any interest here, regardless of the outcome of the request. I also don’t want to go too far into the long grass on this one until there’s actual news on the case.
I’ll simply note that Anderson was considered a high first round prospect before this legal matter and if the case is dropped and he commences his NFL career, there’s a chance he will receive a lot of attention.
As an 3-4 OLB prospect he has everything — length, quickness and explosive qualities. He’s only around 240lbs but he uses great hands and power to jolt far bigger offensive linemen. I can’t recall a pass rusher with a first-step burst that has O-liners so frequently out of position like Anderson shows. Tackles turn their bodies parallel to the goalposts so often to cover the edge, leaving also sorts of speed-to-power and inside counters open.
He’s also brilliant working in space, he can drop then read/react as well as most middle linebackers and he just has a natural athleticism to him.
This is as much as I’m going to talk about Anderson until there’s new information on his case.
I’m not sure how the Seahawks would view Joshua Paschal. He’s a potential heart-and-soul leader with extremely explosive, powerful traits. He’s a menace vs the run and a TFL collector. He also lacks twitch and speed off the edge to rush the passer and that could be an issue for a team desperate to add dynamic rush ability. They’ve said they need another Darrell Taylor and that’s not really Paschal.
Drake Jackson is an intriguing prospect with a lot of question marks. He’s someone teams are going to spend a fair bit of time figuring out. His weight has gone up and down. He’s now 270lbs, up from 255lbs, but he claims he’s in terrific shape. He doesn’t look like the long, lean pass rusher the Seahawks are typically looking for — but there are positives. He ran a 4.28 short shuttle which is great for his size. He managed a 10-7 broad jump at his combine.
His tape has flashes but also a lot of middling play. Even so, he could be someone they look at.
They might pivot to a group that includes Dominique Robinson, DeAngelo Malone and Amaré Barno. The trio are all very athletic but are more developmental types. They all combine length and speed with a lean frame — they look like Seahawks’ pass rushers but are perhaps unlikely to have an impact in year one.
Jeffrey Gunter at Coastal Carolina is another name to watch. I’m really struggling to get an angle on Nik Bonitto at Oklahoma. I can’t tell whether his physical profile warrants intrigue or whether his tape suggests a day-three type.
It all further highlights why the best thing for the Seahawks is to get a pass rusher at #9 and then address cornerback later. It just might not be possible.
I watched Pittsburgh corner Damarri Mathis last night, after the buzz surrounding his pro-day performance. He is a fantastic player, worthy of a second round grade.
He’s 5-11 and 196lbs but packs a real punch as a hitter. He’s very prepared to level someone given an opportunity and tackling is a strong point. He has 32 inch arms so ticks that box.
He ran a 4.39 at the combine and then added a 43.5 inch vertical at his pro-day. That level of athleticism will allow him to stick with the best athletes at the next level and while he requires some technical refinement (like most players) he has the make-up of a terrific pro-corner. He flies to close space in zone with extreme acceleration. Mathis can stick downfield and his recovery speed/reactions are a strong point.
I’m not sure it’d be too rich to take him at #40 or #41 — provided you were able to get a pass rusher at #9.
There are plenty of hidden gems at corner — from MJ Emerson to Montraric Brown to Jalyn Armour-Davis to Cam Taylor-Britt and so on. There’s a long, long list of names — as there are at several positions. I’ll be posting an updated horizontal board soon.
It’s a treat for the Seahawks to have as many picks as they do this year. It’s why, as much as they clearly appreciate D.K. Metcalf, they have to keep their options open about his future.
For example, with the Jets so interested in adding a top receiver, there might be an opportunity to swap #9 for #4 — while acquiring extra stock on day two. That would guarantee you a pass rusher.
Either way they shouldn’t force things at #9 — trading down for example to find an appropriate range to take a Sam Williams based on need. They need talent, first and foremost. Not chasing holes on the roster.
At #9 — that might mean taking a cornerback. Even if ideally you want that pass rusher first, creating an opportunity to draft a defensive back later.
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D.K. Metcalf will likely be paid by someone this off-season
This is a guest post from Curtis Allen. I have uploaded a new podcast discussing the same subject which can be found at the bottom of the article, available on YouTube, Spotify and Apple
The Seahawks’ tumultuous offseason continues.After making two of the biggest, hardest decisions in franchise history on Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner, they have one more major decision coming up very soon.
What to do with D.K. Metcalf?
The time to consider this is rapidly approaching.
As Rob recently pointed out, the days between the initial burst of free agency activity and the draft is an ideal spot for the Seahawks to explore their options.They need to do their research, make serious contact with Metcalf’s team to gauge their feelings on an extension, study the players available at wide receiver in the draft and drop a line in the water to get a feel for what kind of return they could expect in trade for a player of his caliber.
There is also another motivating factor —Metcalf will likely require a new contract before getting seriously involved in off-season activities. The Seahawks need only look to last year’s Jamal Adams hold-in to see how dragging their feet on an extension impacted the team’s output on the field.
Adams was far from effective last year. After the season was over the team admitted that he was not as prepared as he could have been due to not taking part in those offseason practices and camp. They cannot afford a repeat of that cycle.
If they get past the draft and then decide to trade Metcalf, the capital they get in return will not benefit the team until 2023. Not being able to immediately develop and showcase the draft haul they get in return would cause another big hit to the fans’ goodwill in 2022, particularly after the other moves that drained the squad of fan favorites.
The talent deficiency on the roster might be too much to be salved over by ‘just wait until next season.’ The current management team would really be under the gun to make rapid improvement in 2023.
So, with all that in mind, it is best to get cracking on whether they can agree on an extension or get serious about a trade right now.
Let’s take a walk through what factors the team will have to consider when making this big decision.
Setting up the framework of an extension
Contemplating a Metcalf extension is going to take some serious thought.
The recent contracts that have been negotiated at the top of the wide receiver market make this a very difficult proposition to consider for fans who are interested in the future of this team.The numbers have been eye-popping and there is no doubt that a contract for Metcalf would have a similar effect on the fanbase and the NFL in general.
When you add in the Seahawks’ typical lack of creativity with the way they structure their contracts, combined with their current needs all over the roster, it would appear from a high-level viewpoint to be a real challenge to both getting a deal done and having it benefit the team without crippling their ability to make other critical roster moves.
However, there exists a path forward where the Seahawks keep Metcalf and still have the ability to add talent to their roster as they need.
Let me take you to the ledge on this and then walk you back a little.Stay with me.
The first step is discerning what the top of the wide receiver market is.
We see that Davante Adams just busted the market with an incredible 5-year $140 million deal with Las Vegas.$28 million per season is now the top number for average annual value then and we should proceed as though that is the case in a Metcalf negotiation, yes?
No.
In fact, it is a sort of phoney number at the moment.
The last two years of Adams’ contract have been structured to essentially be void years. Those two years alone contribute a gigantic $80 million to the overall number. They are an astounding contract inflation. Without those years, the contract is in actuality a 3-year contract that averages $22.5 million in money.That is the amount Adams can actually count on from Las Vegas.
What about DeAndre Hopkins’ $27.5 million average? He got two years for 2023 and 2024 at $54.25 million tacked on to the end of his deal in 2020 that feature zero guarantees. Hopkins can void a year by meeting performance incentives and the Cardinals can cut him loose without any guaranteed salary to pay, so it is almost a ‘mutual void year’ type situation.
Put another way, the Cardinals have an out just as they start feeling the pain from Kyler Murray’s first big extension.
Tyreek Hill’s new mega-contract? Let’s let the dust settle and the real terms come to light before we get too excited. The early word is nearly always worse than the deal truly is.
For those reasons, it is worth considering those gigantic AAV contract numbers as outliers and not necessarily the new standard, particularly when considering a possible Metcalf contract. They have end-of-contract seasons that are non-guaranteed and balloon the overall AAV into the stratosphere and the likelihood those two players will actually be paid according to those numbers at the end is extremely low.
Who do we look at then to get a feel for Metcalf’s market value? It might be more beneficial to look at wide receivers that were very successful on their rookie contract and recently signed healthy extensions.
Why?
#1 — They have an age/skill profile that indicates their play is still ascending, as does Metcalf
#2 — A second contract gives us a reasonable gauge for how other NFL teams view the position
#3 — Those contracts rarely have all those special creative provisions like the Adams and Hopkins deals and it makes for a more apples-to-apples look since the Seahawks do not often get that creative in their contract structuring
#4 — Most importantly, there is a far higher likelihood the player will get all the way through the contract and earn another good one. So the years on the end of the deal are far more likely to be ‘real’
For consideration, we have three such deals signed very recently:
— D.J. Moore of the Panthers just signed a 3-year, $61.9 million contract with $41.6 million guaranteed
— Mike Williams of the Charges just signed a 3-year $60 million contract with $40 million guaranteed
— Chris Godwin of the Buccaneers just signed a 3-year $60 million contract with $40 million guaranteed
So there we have our framework. Three contracts for young star wide receivers. They all average around $20 million per season with about 2/3 of the contract guaranteed.
There is our base.
What a possible extension could look like
Working off of those numbers, I believe that if the Seahawks wanted to extend Metcalf, they would be justified in signing him to the following contract:
4 years, $100 million, with $60 million guaranteed and a $24 million signing bonus
That obviously works out to an AAV of $25 million per season.
That is essentially a 25% bump over those three contracts we just talked about. How did I get there?
Several reasons…
First off, all three of those players are being extended off of either a franchise-tag year, or the 5th-year first round option.They have already made (or are scheduled to make in 2022) more money in one season than Metcalf will make on his entire rookie contract.This is Metcalf’s first bite at the apple and he will (deservedly) consider that his contract should reflect that as part of the overall package.
Second, Metcalf is an extraordinary talent that has produced in three seasons what those players have done in four or five:
— Metcalf has 29 touchdowns in three seasons
— Godwin has 29 in five seasons
— Williams has 26 in four seasons and change
— Moore has 14 in four seasons
Yes, being a wide receiver is not solely about touchdowns. Yet Metcalf’s productivity in this area runs laps around these newly wealthy players – even while dealing with a limited route-tree rookie year and the combination of a nagging foot injury and playing for stretches without top quarterback play last season.
Third, this acknowledges some things for Metcalf and the team. It shows they are committed to their drafted players and rebuilding a contending team in Seattle. A healthy contract that pays him more can grease the skids of not being on a top team this year or next. It also is a not-so-subtle nod that even though those Adams and Hopkins contracts are artificially inflated for PR purposes, the Seahawks meet Metcalf in the middle between what those guys ‘supposedly’ got and what the other young stars actually got.
Fourth, it buys Metcalf out of a no-trade clause.This is important, as you’ll see in a moment.
Fifth, I’m embarrassingly bad at guessing what players will get on a contract. I personally think a $22-23m AAV contract would be fair and get the job done but I am tacking on a 10% fudge factor to cover the contingency that maybe I am not a professional-grade contract prognosticator.
So — a 4-year contract for $100 million.
A nine-figure contract. For a wide receiver.
It is admittedly hard to absorb but that is where we are these days.
However, if you have ever heard me drone on about the salary cap, you probably know what is coming next.It’s not about the total dollars or years so much as it is how it is structured and how badly it restricts the team from getting out of it. Flexibility to make further roster moves is a critical ingredient for teams, particularly ones like the Seahawks, who do not ‘pull out all the stops’ and go shopping on the company credit card very often.
So, how does this deal look on the Seahawks’ salary cap? And is it really workable to spend this much on a wide receiver?
Deal structure
A couple notes before we dig in. I used some standard contract principles the Seahawks prefer. A four-year contract, with as much guaranteed salary as soon as possible.It allows them options and flexibility later in the deal.
Also I used whole numbers and avoided any option or roster bonuses, or other contract incentives. I wanted a clean-looking cap discussion that was within reason and didn’t require a slide rule, a law degree or a 5000 line spreadsheet to illuminate the impact.So keep in mind, this is not precisely what a Metcalf contract would look like.
I also adjusted his 2022 season – the last year of his rookie deal – to account for the bonus proration and took some cap hit in 2022 as the Seahawks likely would. The Seahawks currently have Metcalf slated for a cap hit of $4.324 million on his rookie deal. I added a year’s bonus proration and converted $2 million of his salary to a bonus and spread it out over the life of the contract – a standard practice – and the result is a cap hit of $7.524 million, an increase on their 2022 cap of $3.2 million.
Have a look:
As you can see, there is a typical setup to the contract. The cap hits grow slowly over the years then get big at the end and the guaranteed salary peaks and then diminishes just as quickly. The Seahawks have a lot of options available to them in the last two seasons.
Before we get into that, if you are trying to weigh whether you think the Seahawks would make such a big investment in Metcalf, have a look at the cap hits for the first three seasons in isolation. Those are the most important in this deal. The guaranteed money and the money left on the bonus proration makes it painful to cut or trade Metcalf before 2024, so you are absolutely committing to Metcalf for three seasons if he signs this deal.That is the tradeoff for having flexibility later.
Three seasons at $43.92m (or an AAV of $14.64m) plus a $10.4m dead cap hit in 2025 if you want to escape the contract. Ask yourself if you are comfortable with those cap numbers for a receiver of Metcalf’s age, physical profile and projected on-field impact for this team.
There is room to carry a Metcalf contract on the Seahawks’ salary cap and not be too crippled. It does overlap with Tyler Lockett’s recent extension.However, note that when Metcalf’s cap number starts getting serious, the Seahawks have structured Lockett’s contract so that there is no guaranteed salary. They have a lot of flexibility.They can cut him, trade him, or negotiate him down if they feel they need to.
As well, ask yourself, who on the current roster is destined for a big-money extension in the coming years? Who else should the Seahawks be saving their cap for?Jamal Adams probably will not make it to the end of his current contract. Darrell Taylor will not be an unrestricted free agent until 2025. Jordyn Brooks is also under team control until 2025 as well.
There is room to give Metcalf a very big contract.
Keep in mind too, that the Seahawks will not have a franchise QB-level salary to pay in those years.
Look at the Chargers.They currently have two $20 million AAV wide receivers, Joey Bosa at $27 million, Corey Linsley at $12.5 million, just traded for Khalil Mack and added J.C. Jackson at $16.5 million. How? Because they have Justin Herbert on a rookie contract (and have drafted well).
If the Seahawks get their young quarterback, a Metcalf contract absolutely will not prohibit them from building around him.
However, if you are like me and you cannot keep your eyes off the $60.4 million in 2025 and 2026 combined cap hits, here is where paying some extra cash into the deal in exchange for not having a no-trade clause really helps the team.
After 2024 this contract gives the team options that are very workable.
The team could trade Metcalf after the 2024 season and gain $15.3 million of cap room back. They will have to pick up the final two years of bonus proration though, for a dead cap hit of $10.4 million.
Metcalf would be coming off his age 27 season and still have major trade value (assuming his production has continued its steep ascent, which, if you’re signing him to this big of a contract, you are).
Consider:
Julio Jones’ 28-30 age years are as arguably as good as his 25-27 age years.
Stefon Diggs has just had his two best career years to date at age 27 and 28. Same with Davante Adams, and the Packers just fetched a current-year first and second round pick for him in trade at age 30.
It is very possible that Metcalf’s career could not yet have reached its peak by the time the window opens to trade him.
So consider this – the Seahawks could get a premium of draft capital for Metcalf in trade right now. Or they could pay him a pretty modest salary for three seasons and get perhaps the same premium in draft capital in 2025 and save $15.3 million on the cap.
This is not a situation where once you give a top player a big, big contract, you hope he makes it to the end of the deal. Metcalf could still have his best years ahead of him in 2025 and it is conceivable that the trade haul could be just as impressive as it would be this year.
What about the $10.4m dead cap hit for trading him in 2025? It sounds like a chunk but think of that number in 2025 cap dollars. The new TV deals will be in full swing.Gambling revenue will be coming online by then. The Seahawks could accept that dead cap hit and not bat an eyelash.
What about keeping Metcalf for 2025 and 2026? Two years at $60.4m sounds painful. Again, the structure helps you there. There is very little guaranteed money. The Seahawks could do any number of things. Restructure it to get some cap relief. Extend him and lower the cap hit. Keep him for 2025 and then trade him at age 29 and reap a massive $29.5 million in cap room in 2026.
The team has all kinds of options to pay Metcalf a very handsome amount and make it workable for them.
Admittedly, projecting Metcalf’s future production carries a degree of risk. Is he currently the equal of an Adams or a Diggs? No, not yet.Metcalf has to continue to play well. He needs to keep his level of commitment up after cashing his first massive check.But it is all well within the realm of possibility.
If you would like to take a crack at projecting a Metcalf extension, you might enjoy OTC’s Cap Constructor tool. Play around with it and see what you would like to do on an extension and let us know what you came up with in the comments and how you think it might work.
If the thought of paying a wide receiver that kind of money with the current roster needs the Seahawks have turns your stomach, I understand completely. This piece wasn’t intended to necessarily pick a side in this debate, just to illuminate what I think a contract extension might look like and demonstrate that it is a reasonable proposition if both sides can see the benefits.
Many seem to be opposed to a Metcalf extension based on the Davante Adams mega-contract and the idea that it would literally cost $28 million against the cap every single year and thus would crush any cap flexibility going forward. Those factors are not as real and as big as you think.
Even if you are fine with the contract as I drew it up, Metcalf and his team may feel that a deal like that is not enough. They may balk at it and try to surpass the Davante Adams contract. We just do not know how it will work out. But it does need to be addressed very, very soon.
Trade options
The Seahawks should be in a strong negotiating position when considering trading Metcalf, should it come to that. With Pete Carroll’s recent comments about Metcalf though, it is fair to say the Seahawks are heavily invested in keeping him on the roster with an extension.
However, we need to have a look at what the trade market would be like for Metcalf.
The NFL’s thirst for wide receivers seems unquenchable and Metcalf is the kind of player you do not wonder ‘who would be interested?’ Rather, he is the type you ask ‘who wouldn’t be interested?’
It is well known that the Packers would probably be in the market. They have the draft capital after trading Adams and apparently they have the cash and cap room, if reports are to be believed that they offered Adams more money than Las Vegas did. They nervously waited all offseason for Aaron Rodgers to make up his mind and now that he has decided to come back, they might as well go all in and get him a weapon (given they’ve also lost Marquez Valdes-Scantling).
The Jets badly need a top receiver to grow up with Zach Wilson. They acknowledged this when they tried to acquire Tyreek Hill.They have multiple picks available to them.
Ditto with the Giants and Daniel Jones. Imagine Brian Dabol’s offense if they get the top offensive lineman in the draft, Saquon Barkley got healthy and then they added Metcalf.
The Chiefs just subtracted Tyreek Hill, have a ton of draft stock. While they added JuJu Smith-Schuster, they just need to look at what their division rivals have done this offseason to get interested in Metcalf.
Would the Lions come calling, looking for Calvin Johnson’s natural successor?
The Bears just had Allen Robinson walk. Darnell Mooney is their best weapon. Justin Fields needs help running the offense. Don’t tell me Chicago fans wouldn’t embrace a giant, muscular game-changer like Metcalf. A creative package with their two second-round picks this year and some future picks could work.
I could go on and on.
A player like Metcalf could spark a bidding war. Again, the Packers landed a current-year first and second round pick for 30-year-old Davante Adams and the Raiders happily made him very, very wealthy.
Tyreek Hill at age 28 just returned an even bigger package in trade.
Reminder —Metcalf is 24, and will be 25 in December. If teams consider his immense potential to break games wide open and expand their offense in dramatic ways, how much would they give to get as many as five peak years of him under club control?With a current rookie year cap hit of only $3.986 million?
A Jamal Adams-type haul does not seem too farfetched.
The Seahawks could do so many things with a windfall of draft picks.
Pick a wide receiver high in the draft and cross your fingers that he is the Justin Jefferson you get for trading your Stefon Diggs away.
Build a defense that will dominate the division for the next 5 years. Draft the entire Georgia Bulldog defense, why not?
How about enjoying the cozy warm feeling of having so many picks on the board you can just let the draft come to you? Lay in wait for talented players that slip and then go get them at your whim.
Or trade down a couple times and take two quarterbacks.
The options are endless and tantalizing.
The opportunity to vastly improve this team, whether by extending Metcalf or trading him, is a fun exercise to think about.
But the options are wide open.The best thing you can take away from this piece is this:signing Metcalf to a big contract extension does not close off those options forever.
Later today I’ll be posting a new guest post from Curtis Allen on the D.K. Metcalf situation, plus publishing a new podcast with thoughts on the matter. Firstly though, yesterday I spent a couple of hours with my old podcasting partner Kenneth Arthur talking about the Seahawks and the draft.
With the Seahawks set to adopt 3-4 ideology, if not embrace a full-scale switch to the scheme, I wanted to speak to someone about the types of players required at each position. If Seattle is making a significant change (and it appears they are) what areas will they try to prioritise in the draft?
Jim Leavitt was the linebackers coach for the San Francisco 49ers between 2011-14, when Vic Fangio was the defensive coordinator. When I contacted him, he sent me the following text: “Nobody knows the 3-4 better than me“. The perfect interview subject.
Listen to our conversation below and afterwards, I share some thoughts on what it might mean for the Seahawks in the 2022 draft.
You can listen via YouTube, Spotify or Apple Podcasts. Please subscribe, like the video on YouTube and leave a review on Apple if you have time. It really helps the new pod.
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Pete Carroll’s comments on KJR yesterday were revealing, positive and worth paying attention to.
Here’s a brief summary:
— Carroll called offensive tackle ‘a spot of real concern’. To me his comments contained a sense of urgency, like he knew they had to get something sorted quickly. That’s understandable given both spots need filling. My interpretation is I think they’re going to make some moves pre-draft. I think he wants to fix this with signings. That could mean Duane Brown, Eric Fisher and/or Daryl Williams.
— When asked what other areas they needed to address he said he felt it was important that they continue to work on the pass rush (“and the coverage part of it”). He then made reference to the staff additions. Remember — Jake Heaps said on 710 Seattle Sports that Sean Desai had been persuaded to come to Seattle in part because they would make personnel improvements. So far, they have not. Carroll directly referred to Uchenna Nwosu as someone who can work in the rotation. That was telling to me — because Nwosu’s role was described in a fairly modest way. He finished his answer on improvements by stating, clearly, he wanted ‘the whole thing’ (pass rush) upscaled and upgraded and that it will be a ‘point of focus’.
— Carroll spoke about having a whole bunch of picks in 2023 and how that could impact what they do this year. I took that to mean they know this isn’t a great quarterback class. They know next year looks a lot better. They have the ammunition to be pro-active in 12 months and not feel like they need to force things this year.
— I found this whole interview incredibly reassuring. A sense of urgency to add at tackle, making the pass rush better is the focal point and no reference to adding more at quarterback when talking about immediate needs. As someone who hopes the Seahawks pump their draft resources into the defensive front seven, this interview was music to my ears. It made me think they are going to sign offensive tackles and will prioritise the pass rush with their top picks.
As I’ve said a few times now, my ‘Plan A’ would be one of Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at #9. If they’re not available, ‘Plan B’ would be Devonte Wyatt or Derek Stingley Jr. I’m not against Jordan Davis either. At #40 I’d take a linebacker — one of Channing Tindall, Leo Chenal, Quay Walker or Damone Clark ideally.
At #41 I’d like to be in a position to keep your options open. A trade down in that spot feels useful. You might need to target an edge rusher if you weren’t able to land Johnson or Thibodeaux. Yet you’ve got so much value and depth in that range — it’d be a great opportunity to simply take the best player available. What a luxury that extra second is this year.
If the Seahawks can come out of this draft feeling like they have a terrific defensive platform for the future — it will be the perfect start to the rebuild. It would set Carroll up to play the brand of football he wants to play. They can go into the 2023 draft excited and confident that the future at the quarterback position will be readily available.
This was a very encouraging interview, I thought.
The Seahawks are determined to keep D.K. Metcalf
There wasn’t even a hint of doubt. Carroll made it clear — they’re focused on keeping Metcalf and want to sign him to a new contract this year.
In light of Tyreek Hill re-setting the salary market today, there’s little reason for talks not to progress over the next few weeks.
It’s unlikely anyone else is going to re-set the market now. So Metcalf and the Seahawks have to balance out where he fits into a salary hierarchy that has seen the two best players at the position get paid major new money.
I doubt Carroll would’ve talked in the way he did yesterday if he wasn’t willing to pay Metcalf the kind of money the top receivers are getting. So now it comes down to finding common ground. I think they will. This should be fairly straight forward, provided Metcalf is equally motivated to get a deal done.
It’s possible Kansas City and Green Bay make a push for him and that could turn his head. They have the stock to make an attractive offer to the Seahawks.
He would probably need to push for a trade though. I get the sense he likes it in Seattle and might be willing to make his fortune with the team who drafted him.
I do think it’s a situation Seattle needs to address before the draft though. They need to get two offensive tackles signed and then focus on Metcalf.
Either get that extension done — or see what’s out there via trade.
Given the Hill and Davante Adams moves — you’re looking at a first and second round pick if you deal him. I’m not sure you want to trade away a very talented player at a great age when you’ve got money to burn. This will be up to the player and how talks go.
Don’t fall for the hype
Twitter exploded yesterday with people sharing a video of Malik Willis throwing at his pro-day. One throw in particular gained a lot of traction. Willis did the usual trick that quarterbacks like to do these days — running one way, throwing off-balance across your body and launching it downfield. It’s a throw made popular by Zach Wilson and everyone seems to copy it now.
People were reacting to the throw declaring he could/should be the #2 pick to Detroit. Carolina, Atlanta and Seattle were all mentioned too.
The hype train had truly left the station.
Unfortunately, so had everyone’s rational thinking.
Pro-days are the single most overrated event for quarterbacks. They mean absolutely nothing. Willis being able to throw that football in a pair of shorts and a T-shirt, with no defense on the field, means nothing.
If you asked Drew Lock to copy that exact same throw tomorrow in Seattle’s practise facility, he’d be able to do it.
You never watch a pro-day and make any kind of serious judgement. At the absolute best it acts as confirmation.
Zach Wilson’s tape at BYU last year was really good. When he excels at his pro-day, it’s just another tick in a box. The Jets liked him before the event, they liked him after.
The same goes for Willis, albeit in reverse.
His issues don’t suddenly go away because he throws that pass or because he was wonderfully charming in his press conference afterwards. I wish him all the very best in his career and hope he goes as high as possible. The truth is though — he too often makes one read and if it isn’t there he bails out of the pocket to run. He refuses to throw over middle. Under pressure he panics and tries to scramble — which is why he absorbed 51 sacks in 2021 alone. He misses wide open receivers due to impatience and letting his eyes drop. His throwing technique (release, ball-pat, non-squared shoulders and inconsistent base) will lead to turnovers.
All yesterday did was confirm he’s a strong-armed player who can sling it.
Please, let’s not fall into the trap of overreacting to any of the pro-days.
I appreciate Willis will probably go in the first round. As I’ve been saying for a while now — the Steelers tend to telegraph who they like. If Mike Tomlin played poker, he’d accidentally hold his cards facing the rest of the table. He basically attached himself to T.J. Watt and Devin Bush at their pro-days. He’s done the same with Willis and took him to dinner on Monday night.
I’m convinced one way or another the Steelers will take him — either at #20 or with a move into the teens.
Kenny Pickett and Matt Corral also have a shot to go in the second half of round one.
I’ll come back to my conversation with Scot McCloughan though. Three quarterbacks will go in round one and all three should go in round three. That was McCloughan’s assessment. I agree with him.
And nothing that happens at a pro-day is going to change that.
I don’t understand the Charles Cross hype
He’s often mocked to Seattle at #9. Some people are talking about him in the top five, for pity’s sake.
We’re talking about a player who is a modest athlete with average size. He’s only 6-4 1/2 in height and 307lbs. His testing was weird — combining a good 9-4 broad jump with a poor 26 inch vertical. His agility testing was not good (4.61 short shuttle, 7.88 three cone). He ran well in the forty (4.95) but not as well as, say, Trevor Penning (4.89).
Penning is also bigger, more explosive and had better shuttle and three cone times.
Nothing about Cross’ physical profile screams ‘top-10 pick’. Neither does anything about his profile indicate he’d be a key target for Seattle.
Technically he doesn’t bend his knees well enough, I think he’s very much a pass-pro mirror specialist and not a complete blocker.
I don’t think he’ll be a top-10 pick, I don’t think he’ll end up in Seattle and I’m confused by the way people are assessing him.
If they end up taking a tackle with their top pick, the more likely answer is Trevor Penning — who at least has a profile they’ve shown to be interested in. In round two — it could be someone like Abraham Lucas (if he lasts) or Tyler Smith.
Some thoughts on the top-10
I’m going to continue to project no quarterbacks go early.
I think the pass rushers and offensive linemen will come off the board very quickly.
I think the top-five is pretty much locked in as Aidan Hutchinson, Ikem Ekwonu, Travon Walker, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Evan Neal (in no particular order).
Sauce Gardner has enough buzz to consider too but I think he is more likely to go #7 to the Giants.
I think the Chargers are very likely to aggressively move up and target Jordan Davis. Carolina at #6 would be a good trade partner because they have no picks in rounds 2-3 and might be able to move into the teens to target a quarterback. Alternatively, O-line seems likely for the Panthers at #6.
The Giants and Falcons scare me from a Seahawks perspective because both will be in the market for a pass rusher. I hope New York will take Sauce Gardner. I hope Atlanta will either convince themselves to reach for a quarterback, will trade down with a team like the Chargers or will take a much-needed receiver.
I think they’re less likely to take a wide-out at #8 simply because the depth is so strong at the position, they can easily wait until day two.
I’m intrigued to know what Seattle will do if the top edge rushers are gone at #9. That could be a situation where they move down. As mentioned, I’d seriously consider Devonte Wyatt or Derek Stingley Jr at #9. Do they pivot to O-line?
Based on what Carroll said in his interview earlier — pass rush and corner feel like two areas that will be a big target early in the draft.
The two quarterbacks I’d keep an eye on for Seattle
Jack Coan and Kaleb Eleby at the start of day three.
Coan has technical ability that matches or surpasses the names expected to go early. You see him going through reads, playing on time and he was very productive at Notre Dame (with a ‘field-tilting’ win against Virginia Tech). He has some moments where ball-placement is an issue and while he’s a better athlete than some people think — he’s no threat as a dynamic runner. He can extend plays and throw on the run though. I like his arm strength, his base and his ability to go through progressions.
Eleby impressed in 2020 when throwing to Dee Eskridge and that maybe stuck in the mind for Seattle. He never really took a step forward in 2021 but he does a good job throwing off-platform. I think he has better arm talent than some are suggesting and he’s considered a strong leader with untapped potential.
I think either of these two could be thrown into the competition with Drew Lock, Jacob Eason and (eventually) Geno Smith. They might bypass the position in the draft, however, if they bring in Baker Mayfield as competition instead.
Jake Heaps made a great point yesterday. You can’t rush the rebuild, especially at the quarterback position. With Carroll talking about their bounty of picks in 2023, and with good options like Will Levis and Bryce Young set to be available, this is a year to build your foundation and be patient.
I’m increasingly confident they will be.
Some extra thoughts on #41
Again, I want a defensive heavy draft. Either a defensive end or defensive tackle at #9 (although I’m open to Derek Stingley too, as mentioned). A linebacker is a must at #40 because of this class. Then at #41, there are options.
If you take Wyatt or Stingley at #9, I think you target someone like Ole Miss pass rusher Sam Williams to fill your pass rusher need. If you take one of Johnson or Thibodeaux at #9 — it perhaps opens things up a bit. The top defensive tackles will likely all be gone by #41.
The great thing about this draft is it’s so rich in alternatives. If Abraham Lucas is there, he would be an exceptional pick. Ditto Cam Jurgens or Cole Strange. There are a few potential options at cornerback depending on what they’re looking for (but I still think this class is set up to add talent between rounds 4-7 as they’re known to do).
I don’t think a receiver at #41 would be a great investment given you’re supposed to be building foundations — but the likes of Kevin Austin Jr, Christian Watson and maybe even Jameson Williams warrant a conversation.
As much as some would hate it — I think a running back makes sense if you’re looking for non-defensive options. I’m not massively high on Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker in that spot. I also appreciate that they have Jonathan Stewart-level physical profiles. If the Seahawks are serious about their running game, they can’t rely on the often-injured Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson.
Investing in a player with Stewart-level talent, at a cost of $1.5-2.5m a year over four years, wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. They have to be able to run the ball properly.
Speaking of Cam Jurgens by the way — a big time blog favourite who was massively underrated in the media for far too long — he jumped a 33.5 inch vertical and a 9-11 broad at his pro-day. Then he ran a 7.19 three cone — the fastest ever by a center (beating Jason Kelce).
He’s now confirmed as a 3.34 TEF tester with a weighted TEF of 102.5.
He also has ideal size and +33 inch arms.
He is going to be an absolute stud.
Could they target Daniel Faalele?
I’m not a huge fan. However, the Seahawks had a visit with Trent Brown who is 6-8 and 380lbs. Faaelele was 6-8 and 384lbs at the combine.
For me he’s too big. There’s no need for him to be 384lbs. On tape he moves surprisingly well and admittedly there are some pass-pro snaps or plays where he moves his feet and you forget he weighs as much as he does. Yet his height and size is a disadvantage because when he loses leverage he’s often dumped on his backside. He struggles with balance and re-setting because he’s so heavy and when you get underneath him it’s like watching a tree being felled.
At the Senior Bowl far smaller defenders like Myjai Sanders sent him to the ground and he had some ugly 1v1 reps because they gained the advantage with pad-level.
The link to Brown suggests, however, they would consider an enormous right tackle. And that’s what Faalele is. If nothing else, I suppose, he’s a wall of a man to get around. With tight end help it could be especially difficult.
I’d like to see him shift 20-30lbs personally and try to become Orlando Brown Jr. There’s no need to be as big as he is.
If you missed it yesterday check out my appearance on 750 ‘The Game’ in Portland — for a healthy dose of draft energy and positivity…
I wrote yesterday about my preference for the Seahawks in this draft.
The options are so good to add defensive players with special qualities and that should be the priority.
Plan A would be taking an edge rusher like Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. Plan B would be selecting Devonte Wyatt or Derek Stingley Jr.
To me there’s a stark difference between this quartet and Charles Cross and Trevor Penning. They’re not bad players by any stretch. I’m just not convinced they can be great or impactful.
It is worth nothing, however, that after recording 29 reps of the bench press at his pro-day today, Penning registered a TEF score of 3.06. His weighted TEF is 99.5. It makes him an explosive tester to go along with a 4.89 forty and increases his chances of going early (potentially to the Seahawks).
In round two I think you have to take a linebacker because the options are so good. You also have another high second rounder.
As much as I like Johnson and Thibodeaux there is something very appealing about tapping into Georgia’s outstanding defense. If you take Wyatt as your long-needed interior disruptor and then select Channing Tindall in the second round, that would be an understandable approach. You could then target an edge rusher at #41 or #72.
Either way, the draft is stacked with defensive talent. This feels like an exciting opportunity to create a young, dynamic unit that can carry this team forward as it seeks a long term future at quarterback.
However — the inability so far to add at the two offensive tackle positions is problematic. The Seahawks have a tendency of letting needs linger into the draft then forcing picks.
I hate the idea of reaching on an offensive tackle at #9. And I do think Cross or Penning would be a reach.
This is why I was rooting for Trent Brown to sign. Not because I necessarily coveted him as a player, or felt he would elevate the Seahawks to new heights on the O-line. Really it was just about filling a void and decreasing the chances of any temptation to force an O-line pick in round one.
It’s interesting though that so far they’ve shown only interest in Brown — best at right tackle — and reportedly they retain some interest in bringing back Brandon Shell (also a right tackle). Worryingly, it does feel a bit like they’re not actively seeking a left tackle. Until they do, I fear they’ll pass-up the opportunity to add a great defensive talent with their top pick.
They could of course target someone like Tyler Smith — perhaps in round two or by moving back into the first where he’s getting some buzz (I don’t think he should go that high). If they’re going to do that for a tackle, I would much prefer them to go after right tackle Abraham Lucas.
He is probably the only player I can get excited about as an early tackle pick. His stock has never taken off and if they take him in round two, I’d have no issues with that. It would be a selection to celebrate.
If Johnson and Thibodeaux come off the board before pick #9 — theoretically you could still take Wyatt (either at #9 or after moving down), take Tindall at #40 and maybe Lucas is there at #41? Then you could use #72 on a pass rusher like Dominique Robinson, DeAngelo Malone, Amare Barno or Jeffrey Gunter.
That would make as much sense as any other plan. If you prefer to swap out Lucas for Smith or Rasheed Walker — that’s an option too. I’ll just be a little bit surprised if they decide to go young and experienced on the O-line after years of trying to become more experienced up front.
It all calls into question Seattle’s decision to pay, handsomely, existing players on their roster. A true rebuilding team without any connection to Quandre Diggs, Will Dissly, Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson and Rashaad Penny might’ve thought that money was better spent elsewhere. Instead Seattle has used almost all of its cap space to retain a fairly average core that Pete Carroll clearly likes.
The coach speaks of competing and not rebuilding yet it’s impossible to look at Seattle’s roster and think this is anything more than a bad football team in the making. Even with their cluster of picks coming up.
Carroll might be best served embracing what this is and toning down his language. It could get ugly for him if he constantly talks about ‘going for it’ and then the losses stack up.
In truth it’s probably best to lean into a rebuild. Start your younger players — such as Stone Forsyth and Jake Curhan — and if you end up with a top-three pick in 2023, so be it. You won’t have to move up for a quarterback at least.
At the moment though I’m a little anxious that Carroll isn’t thinking this way at all. He’s thinking if he can plug a gap here, plug a gap there — they have a roster. Decisions made in April should be with 2023-2028 in mind, not 2022.
That’s why creating a dominating front seven through this draft should be the aim. It’s a realistic aim, too.
What if they do take Trevor Penning at #9?
I should be clear that I don’t dislike Penning as a player. I think he’s worthy of a first round grade. His profile determines he is for sure. I just don’t think he’s ‘special’ and that other players on the defensive side of the ball can be future stars.
If they draft him at #9 I think you still have to aim to take a linebacker in round two. With your other pick you consider Sam Williams, perhaps — or maybe one of the other edge rushers drops into range. There are a lot ranked in the top-50.
The Dominique Robinson, DeAngelo Malone, Amare Barno and Jeffrey Gunter group lack the star-quality of the top players and all require some refinement and development. Clint Hurtt called for a game-wrecker and all of these four are more ‘project’ than anything else. There is a lot of potential with this quartet, though.
Chris Simm’s take on Matt Corral
Say what you want about Simms but over the years he’s been quite good at correctly predicting which quarterbacks are best served to succeed at the next level.
Today he revealed his 2022 rankings with Ole Miss’ Corral at the top.
He suggests Corral is the only player worthy of being considered in the top-10 and he has high praise for a player who was famously snapped having a meet-and-greet with Pete Carroll at the combine.
Brady Henderson reported today that there’s a feeling the Seahawks are not sold on the top quarterbacks in this draft. We should also remember the Seahawks have been very good at steering the local media over the last 12 months (see: Wilson will not be traded).
I don’t think the Seahawks will take Corral at #9. I do still think there’s a chance they could trade back into the #20-32 range to get him though.
Lane Kiffin loves Corral and Carroll trusts Lane. They’ve drafted a Kiffin quarterback before (Alex McGough). They might be inclined to keep taking shots until they find a guy.
The Browns are stuck with Baker Mayfield
He wanted the Colts but they clearly wanted someone else. The Saints have re-signed Jameis Winston. The Falcons added Marcus Mariota. The Panthers are already paying Sam Darnold $18m.
There’s nowhere for the Browns or Mayfield to go here.
This is why all the talk of day two picks a few days a go was nonsensical. The Browns have no leverage. This was nothing like the Carson Wentz situation or Darnold a year ago. Why? Because the Browns leaked a quote to ESPN calling Mayfield a child and then traded the house for Deshaun Watson.
It is impossible for Mayfield to be in that building when everyone gets together for OTA’s or camp.
They have two choices. Cut him and spend $18m for him to go away. Or they trade him with zero leverage to whoever will take him. They might need to eat most of his salary anyway or offer a draft pick to take on the money.
Either way they’re going to have to bite the bullet at some point. It seems to be taking them a long time to realise that but I suspect reality is biting now that other teams have shut down their options.
If the Seahawks want Mayfield — and I suspect they do — they’ve played a blinder here by being patient. They will probably get their ‘shot to nothing’ opportunity and will approach this ‘second chance’ as their 2022 answer to the Marshawn Lynch trade.
If not, it’s no big deal.
Something to remember…
When the Packers were preparing for life after Brett Favre, they selected Aaron Rodgers in the first round in 2005. Three years later, with Favre still playing, they selected Brian Brohm in the second round.
John Schneider is part of that Packers DNA. He admitted this week they’ve not done a good enough job drafting quarterbacks over the years. He’s right too. It’s particularly frustrating given the mid-round quarterbacks available a year ago, when the writing was on the wall with Russell Wilson.
It wouldn’t surprise me if the Seahawks drafted one quarterback early and one late this year. It also wouldn’t surprise me if they took one early this year (either in round two or after trading up) but left the door open to draft another early in 2023.
When you don’t have a franchise quarterback, you’ve got to throw a lot of darts. I do wonder if they’ll start that off in this draft.
Given Brady Henderson’s report — if they don’t take a quarterback early, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if the two players they’ve got their eye on are Jack Coan and Kaleb Eleby.
That, I think, would still be my preference above any Baker Mayfield project or high draft pick. Coan and Eleby have talent and traits you can chuck into the mix for 2022, while you build up your roster and plan for a potential high quarterback pick next year.
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The front office were right to end the Russell Wilson saga one way or another. I think some of their free agent moves have been understandable and some questionable. I’m taking a ‘wait and see’ approach overall on what they’ve done in this market.
However, I don’t think you can assess what has happened with Trent Brown as anything other than a negative. We’ve been here before, too many times.
Source: #Patriots OT Trent Brown has agreed to terms with… the #Patriots. A plot twist, as Brown ends up back where he began.
How often have the Seahawks had visits with players, tried to give them the hard-sell as recruiters, only to miss out?
Look at the Bengals. They didn’t allow La’el Collins to leave Cincinnati without a deal. The Seahawks took a long visit with Brown, only to allow themselves to seemingly be used as leverage as he eventually stayed with his old team.
The Seahawks currently have two gaping holes at offensive tackle. The draft options are not great, despite what a lot of other people will tell you.
If they force themselves to take a tackle at #9 — they will be reaching for a need. They will not be positioning themselves to take the best player.
This has become a regular occurrence with Pete Carroll and John Schneider.
Too often over the years they’ve backed themselves into a corner by going into the draft with significant needs. Then, instead of letting the draft come to them, they’ve had to force things.
Sometimes they’ve even gone into training camp with massive issues at center and cornerback (2021) or pass rush (2019 & 2020).
All of the best options in round one are on defense. You have a chance to select a special talent with your top pick, even if you move down first.
Charles Cross and Trevor Penning do not possess ‘special’ qualities.
It will be demoralising to see them force an offensive tackle pick at #9 — or feel like they’ve got to somehow find a solution at #40 or #41 for a gaping hole.
They had one of the best right tackles in the business in their facility over the weekend and they should’ve made sure he didn’t leave without putting pen to paper.
Now what?
Duane Brown is talking to Carolina. Teron Armstead is visiting Miami and appears destined to sign for the Dolphins. Collins has committed to the Bengals and Brown to the Pats.
Short of pulling out the stops with any of the above who aren’t committed, the remaining options are limited to Eric Fisher, Billy Turner, Daryl Williams and Brandon Shell. That’s it.
Meanwhile the Seahawks spent a fortune tying up Quandre Diggs, to secure a combined +$30m a year average salary at the safety position, extended Will Dissly way beyond expectations and then added players like Quinton Jefferson.
As we sit here today, they have not done anything at offensive tackle. They’ll need to further add to their pass rush after releasing Carlos Dunlap. They need a linebacker and cornerback too. And there’s the quarterback position.
A week into free agency and it feels like we’re seeing the same old issues arise. The same lack of commitment to the trenches. The same inability to upgrade and improve the team — especially on the offensive line. Investing in non-premium positions while neglecting areas like the two lines and cornerback. The same misplaced confidence in their recruiting ability that never pays off when free agents are there to be won over.
For all the talk Carroll had of competing this year, at the moment they’ve got the makings of a very bad football team. It’s actually hard to imagine who could be worse right now. They have to be among the favourites for a top-three pick next year.
This is a big few days for Carroll and co. They’ve got to get this tackle situation sorted. Not as a means to win this year per se. More as a sign that they appreciate and understand where the strength of this draft is at #9, #40 and #41. Because it isn’t offensive tackle.
They’ve also got to make some moves without sacrificing their prize draft picks. Which is hard to do when you see what paltry tackle options remain on the market.
If they don’t set themselves up for a defense-centric draft in the early rounds, it will be a big error.
Trading Wilson and launching a reset was fine but they had to prove they could drive this team forward. I’m not sure the first week of free agency is suggesting they’re capable of doing it.
I hope I’m writing a different article soon.
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I don’t want the Seahawks to feel like they’ve got to draft a left tackle at #9. I’m not as high on Charles Cross as many others and while Trevor Penning has intriguing physical qualities, I don’t think he has the potential to be special — unlike the defenders available in the same range.
Find a way to bring in Duane & Trent Brown. Or pivot to Eric Fisher if needs be.
Solidify the offensive line to create the flexibility to approach the draft with a BPA mindset.
After spending so much on the safety position and more recently at tight end and running back — the team really needs to get the left and right tackle positions sorted.
Accept the situation for what it is at quarterback
Let’s just be honest here. Players like Baker Mayfield and Tyler Huntley are not taking you to the Super Bowl in the future. If you trade for either, they will play on essentially one-year prove-it contracts.
If they perform well, they’ll cost a fortune to keep. If they struggle — you’ve wasted a pick.
Seattle should be setting out to find a great young signal caller and they should accept that it might take a year or two.
Give yourself a chance to hit the jackpot which is a cheap quarterback on a rookie contract — freeing up cap space to build around them.
You’ve just got to take your lumps in 2022. That means a competition involving Drew Lock, Jacob Eason, probably Geno Smith and a rookie.
That rookie shouldn’t be a high pick either. Jack Coan isn’t that much worse than the top players. Take him at the start of day three and let him compete.
The chances are you’ll then be well placed to draft someone like Will Levis next year.
I don’t think they’ll do this by the way, as I’ll note at the end of this piece.
Create a fearsome front seven
This should be the #1 priority for the Seahawks. This draft class is set up to create a terrorising defense.
Speed, violence and pass rush. That should be the aim.
Plan A for me would be to draft Jermaine Johnson or Kayvon Thibodeaux at #9 to partner Darrell Taylor. If they are off the board I would do one of two things.
Firstly, I would check out what offers are available to move down. Recent reports have linked the Chargers with interest in moving up to select Jordan Davis. Can you get a high-ish pick next year and LA’s third rounder (#79) this year? That #79 pick will be extremely valuable in this draft.
If you can move down, I would do so with the aim of selecting another edge rusher (Boye Mafe, Arnold Ebiketie, George Karlaftis) or — my preference — you draft Devonte Wyatt.
If the offers to move down from #9 were not attractive, I would draft Wyatt with the #9 pick or Derek Stingley Jr.
I want the Seahawks to try and draft a special talent. Not a ‘decent’ player or someone who’s raw and needs a lot of work. I want special.
Stingley has shown elite potential at LSU — even if he’s struggled to show it after LSU collapsed in 2020. In 2019 he looked like he was on a pathway to becoming the best cornerback in the world. At SPARQ he ran a 4.30 at the same weight he’s at now. He also jumped a 42 inch vertical. He has the potential for greatness.
Wyatt is the closest thing the Seahawks are going to get to a special interior pass rusher — the rarest of things. There simply aren’t many people who are 6-3, 304lbs and can run a 4.77 with a 1.66 10-yard split.
His arm length (32.5 inches) is below what Seattle has looked for in the past. However, Geno Atkins (who I’d compare Wyatt to) and Aaron Donald also had the same issue and they coped well enough. Much in the way Russell Wilson had everything except height — I’d argue Wyatt has everything except ideal arm length.
People question his production (2.5 sacks in 2021). I wouldn’t worry about it. He had 26 pressures last season. He had a 14.5% pass rush win rate which is superior to Jermaine Johnson (14.2%) and Travon Walker (10.8%).
On top of that his run-stop win-rate is 11.4%. Compare that to Perrion Winfrey (6.1%) and Travis Jones (7.8%).
In five years we might be wondering why Wyatt wasn’t a top-10 lock. He dominated at the Senior Bowl and he combines supreme quickness and excellent hand-use to penetrate as a pass rusher. He can play stout at the point and won’t be a liability against the run. He can play any down and distance.
The Seahawks want a game-wrecker and he could be it. They’ve needed interior rush for years. Wyatt can provide that.
If they took him at #9 I would celebrate that pick. If they can get him after trading down — so be it.
Aim for greatness, not simply a player who could be pretty good or needs serious development. Try and find a star. For me that means looking at players like Wyatt and Stingley with unique skill-sets and rare traits.
They would be my Plan B if Johnson and Thibodeaux are gone.
Picks #40 and #41 should continue to build up the defense. It feels inevitable that one of the picks will go on a linebacker. My preference would be one of Channing Tindall, Leo Chenal, Damone Clark or Quay Walker.
If they take Wyatt in round one, I would use the #41 pick to select Sam Williams the Ole Miss pass rusher.
I think a front seven that includes Wyatt, Tindall, Williams, Darrell Taylor and Uchenna Nwosu can be special. You will be able to attack teams with speed, aggression and difference making ability. You would also have great depth.
Wyatt, Tindall and Williams in particular have also produced at the highest level in college football in the SEC. Two of them are from Georgia’s sensational National Championship team.
This would set you on a pathway to success on defense. With your investment in safety already secure, you would be a cornerback away from a potentially fantastic unit.
To me this is a plan nearly everyone can get behind. Who wouldn’t want to watch a front-seven like this?
Whether the Seahawks would be prepared to focus solely on one side of the ball in the first two rounds, I’m not sure.
But if they are able to bring in Duane and Trent Brown to play tackle — and if we accept the quarterback situation is what it is for 12 months — this would be an exciting start to the rebuild.
The Browns have zero leverage because they have spent a fortune on Deshaun Watson and have no choice but to move Mayfield on. Leaking to ESPN that they ‘want an adult’ at quarterback was unprofessional by whoever said it and has turned this into a crisis for the Browns.
Why?
There is no way whatsoever Mayfield can enter the quarterbacks room in OTA’s or camp now. He’d be well within his rights to be a royal pain in the arse — which is not what Cleveland needs as they turn to Watson.
Neither can they afford to sit on an $18m guaranteed salary which they are on the hook for without a trade. If nobody makes Cleveland an offer — they will have to cut him and eat the whole salary. That’s where they’re at and teams know it.
Comparing this to the Carson Wentz situation is futile. The Colts chose to move on from Wentz. He could’ve returned and it would’ve been steady away. There’s no such option for the Browns after trading for Watson and insulting Mayfield.
The Colts and Seahawks are seen as potential suitors. Both immediately distanced themselves from Mayfield, amid reports the Browns were laughably asking for a day-two pick in a trade.
The Athletic and the Seattle Times both reported that each team ‘wasn’t pursuing’ Mayfield. I’m not sure Indianapolis will ever be interested. I suspect the Seahawks most definitely will be.
My feeling is that Pete Carroll will see this as a chance to make Mayfield the next Marshawn Lynch. A player who was seen as uncontrollable at his old team, acquired on the cheap who Carroll turns into a star.
Mayfield, to be fair, needs a coach like Carroll. It would be an ideal fit for him. He’d have plenty of room to be himself. Carroll will like his competitive spirit and channel it — rather than restrict it.
However, what we need to remember is the Seahawks badly wanted Lynch in 2010. They were extremely patient, not concluding a deal until after the season had begun.
They won’t have to wait that long this time but clearly it feels like they’re willing to take the same approach. Let the situation come to them.
In this case that means one of two things. It means Cleveland eating a whole chunk of his $18m salary (which the Seahawks can’t even afford right now) or it means the Browns basically giving him away — or even giving Seattle a late round pick to inherit the contract.
A fair deal is probably one of Seattle’s fifth rounders to get Mayfield for $10m. Plenty will scoff at that. I’ve seen many tweets claiming the Browns should be able to get second or third round picks. It isn’t happening.
They need rid of Mayfield. Everyone knows it. They’re going to have to facilitate his departure just to move on.
I would rather the Seahawks stick it out and just embrace what this — a rebuild where you aim to draft a quarterback to eventually start. For me that would mean a later pick this year on a Jack Coan type and a higher pick, if needed, in 2023.
However — I don’t think Carroll will see it like that. I think he and Schneider will fancy rolling the dice if the price is right.
It has to be a deal that speaks to the situation. Which in this case would be the Seahawks relieving Cleveland of a problem and inheriting what amounts to a one-year rental to have a look at a player who will be incredibly expensive to retain if he performs well.
If you missed it earlier today I conducted a live stream with Robbie Williams & Adam Nathan. You can watch via YouTube below or listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify:
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