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This is the ninth part of a guest-post series written by Curtis Allen
#9 linebackers
Players under contract for 2021: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven
Players under contract for 2022: Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven
Restricted Free Agents: Shaquem Griffin
Unrestricted Free Agents: K.J. Wright, Bruce Irvin
Exclusive Rights Free Agents: none
Practice Squad/Futures Candidates: none
Salary Cap Notes
2021 Cap Commitment: $21.9 million (12.5% of cap)
Bobby Wagner: $9.65m of $17m cap number non-guaranteed ($7.5m cap hit if cut or traded)
2020 Season Overview
The linebackers were clearly the centerpiece of the defense in 2020.
The Seahawks had Bobby Wagner in the first season of a market-setting contract at MIKE, resisted any thoughts of renegotiating or cutting KJ Wright and his $10m cap number at WILL, signed Bruce Irvin to play the SAM and flex to the edge in pass-rushing situations and drafted Jordyn Brooks with their first pick in the draft.
Cody Barton, Shaquem Griffin and Ben Burr-Kirven were also there.
Free agent acquisition Bruce Irvin was brought back into the fold and with his size and athletic profile was touted by Pete Carroll as ‘the perfect SAM’. Unfortunately, he tore his ACL in the second game of the season and was out for the year.
It was a blow to the defense but in a way, the injury turned out to be a blessing in disguise.
K.J. Wright was moved over to SAM and then back to WILL in nickel and performed marvelously. It began as a shift back to an old position but quickly blossomed into an opportunity to affect the play of the opposing offense from a different area.
We witnessed several great plays from him:
– Defending multiple passes in the Miami game
– Skying for a crazy interception in the Minnesota game
– Blowing past two hapless blockers on a screen in the first Arizona game to make a tackle
– Tap-dancing with Kyler Murray on a read option and stopping him for a loss on third down in the second Arizona game
Wright started the year as questionable to even be on the roster come September, as he had shoulder surgery and the Seahawks had drafted a linebacker in round one.
That $10m in cap savings was a juicy target as the Seahawks waited and waited and waited on pass rush help. It was an expensive season but no doubt it was a great season for Wright. If it is his last season in blue and green, Wright will have finished his Seahawks career on a high note.
Jordyn Brooks had a rough start. He was a head-scratching pick for Seattle but was highly praised by the front office after the draft. Unfortunately, he did not get the benefit of rookie camp or a full training camp due to the shortened offseason.
He was talked up as a potential K.J. Wright replacement in his rookie year but that never materialized. DC Ken Norton Jr noted in camp that Brooks ‘still has a long way to go.’
In the early going, getting on the field was tough. Then he got hurt and missed two games of action. When he returned though, he immediately took his spot on the defense and with time began to show flashes of why he was drafted so high. Knifing through blockers to make tackles and quickness around the edges were just what the Seahawks ordered after expressing disappointment in that area after the previous season.
Blowing up George Kittle attempting a run block and then tackling the ball carrier in Week 17 against San Francisco really got Seahawks fans reminiscing about the LOB days.
Cody Barton got stuffed into a locker with Brooks coming into town but got a chance to step in when Brooks got hurt in the early part of the season and an opportunity existed to perhaps keep the rookie on the bench with some good performances. He could not manage it.
Barton looked out of position, unsure of himself and lacked aggression, not unlike his rookie season. The play in the Minnesota game where he squarely met the ball carrier and then got driven for another five yards pretty much sums up his Seahawks career at linebacker to date. He did find a way to make himself useful on special teams though.
The fever dream of Shaquem Griffin being any kind of pass rush help has broken.
Ben Burr-Kirven only got 10 snaps on defense in 2020, mopping up in the Jets blowout in Week 14.
Bobby Wagner had another very good year. He earned a high grade from PFF and All-Pro honors for his play.
His best game of the year was easily Week 7 against San Francisco. He played that game on another level of aggression. Angry Bobby recorded two sacks, four pressures, two QB knockdowns and eleven tackles.
On one of his sacks, he rushed in and took on two blockers. He plowed into them and knocked them both to the ground like bowling pins and then had the presence of mind to get up and trip Garoppolo’s feet for the sack. It was a sight to behold.
Chasing Zach Ertz 40 yards downfield and making a fingertip breakup of a pass in Week 12 against Philly demonstrated some fantastic closing speed and a range not all middle linebackers have.
Another highlight was engineering the defense for the winning play at the goal line against New England in Week 2. His vision, knowledge and trust in his teammates coalesced for a beautiful moment in a game the Seahawks could have easily lost.
But it was not an easy year. In fact, 2020 might have been the toughest season in Wagner’s pro career. It could be argued that no one on the Seahawks was asked to do more in 2020 than Wagner – Russell Wilson included.
Consider the defensive support he was playing with. Or more accurately, his lack of support:
– A shambles of a defensive line that could not get pressure with the front four and struggled to keep him clean
– His unit being hit with injuries – particularly Irvin and Brooks. His top lieutenant had to flex over to a new position, then he was playing with Cody Barton and then breaking a rookie in for the balance of the season
– A defensive backfield that was constantly rotating injured players in and out and could not give very good run support
– Needing to account for a strong safety blitzing on about 12-15% of his snaps instead of the 1-2% he’s worked with his entire career
– Blitzing far more than he ever had before
– Working with a scheme that struggled to get off the field on third downs.
The result? He had career highs in defensive snaps, times targeted by quarterbacks AND number of blitzes. Now that is a workload.
He frequently was seen pre-snap gesticulating wildly to his teammates, after spotting trouble and trying to alert them and get them properly positioned. More than in previous seasons.
The first few weeks of the season, when the defense was giving up record yards and they were winning games by the skin of their teeth, Wagner’s post-game conferences were often the only beacon of truth from the team about the state of the defense.
Pete Carroll would be pumped and talking about how he ‘frickin loves these last-minute wins.’ Then Bobby would wearily take the podium and bluntly tell reporters he cannot take any joy in the win because the defense put them in the position of cutting it so close.
Fans became growingly concerned that Wagner had lost a step and was being visited by his own mortality. He certainly did not have the number of game-changing plays that was typical for him.
Combine that with being the highest-paid linebacker in the league and this is a lot of weight for a player to carry.
It was obvious Wagner was holding the defense together with both hands and it was occupying more of his attention than ever before.
Offseason Questions to Address
1. What will the linebackers’ role in this defense be in 2021?
Trivia question. Name the player the Seahawks most frequently blitzed in 2020.
Jamal Adams and his 98 blitzes? Close, but no.
The Seahawks blitzed Bobby Wagner 100 times in 2020.
That is up nearly 50% from the 71 times he blitzed in 2019.
That is up nearly 50% from the 41 times he blitzed in 2018.
Sensing a pattern here?
K.J. Wright counted for 72 blitzes in 2020 as well, also a career high as he moved over to the SAM spot.
A stat I did not mention about Wagner’s brilliant Week 7 game against San Francisco: he blitzed an incredible 17 times in that game, taking on some of the injured Jamal Adams’ blitzes.
Several times this season, the Seahawks sent two blitzers on plays.
Many of those times, the Seahawks used their $17million linebacker as an A-gap decoy so their two-first-round-picks strong safety could get free in order to generate pass pressure.
That is just a quick illustration of the scheme cost of the front office not paying proper attention to building a real defensive line.
The Seahawks really hit the trifecta in 2020: they twisted their scheme like taffy, hammered their salary cap and depleted their draft stock all in one offseason. All to obtain at best a passable version of a defense.
Is heavy blitzing on defense something that Pete Carroll and Ken Norton Jr intend to run? Because it bears little resemblance to the blueprint Pete originally rolled out when he came to Seattle.
The linebackers are being tasked with all their regular duties plus rushing the passer and covering for the blitzing strong safety. Not only is it unfamiliar territory but it is also not a wise use of your assets. The results in 2020 bear that out.
It should be noted that when the Seahawks acquired Carlos Dunlap, Wagner’s blitzes dropped dramatically. There is a correlation there.
Now Dunlap is gone and the Seahawks are again looking for answers on the defensive line.
So, what will this offseason bring? Just throw more resources at the defense and see what they have? Blitz Wagner 150 times?
Their super bowl winning defense was predicated on keeping the ball in front of you, minimizing big plays and getting off the field on third down. Linebackers were free to scream to the ball carrier and punish him. They rarely blitzed. It is a far cry from what that defense is now.
Now, zones of the field are abandoned, gaps behind the line of scrimmage are bigger and players in the backfield are left as the last line of defense far too frequently. Clever offensive coordinators seriously exploited this defense and there is no indication that trend will stop in 2021.
They need to decide what they want the linebackers to do and account for it on the defense. Blitzing two players frequently is riskier than day old sushi.
2. Do they move on from Bobby Wagner?
Wagner has combined with Russell Wilson to make 2012 one of the all-time great drafts. He has been everything the Seahawks could have possibly hoped for and more.
But with the time has come to have the uncomfortable conversation. His salary and age make it necessary to scrutinize whether they need to swallow hard and move on.
Arguments for trading him
– $17m per season his simply too much money for any MLB regardless of age. Wagner is making slightly more on his contract than CJ Mosely on his market-bender of a contract but 20% more than the next highest-paid player at the position. That is not in any way ideal.
– The Seahawks just spent a first-round pick on a LB. They likely felt justified spending such a high pick on a LB knowing the day a decision on Wagner would come.
– ‘Better a year too early than a year too late’ is rapidly becoming part of the conversation.
– They badly need an infusion of cheap talent and they are very limited in draft stock this year.
– He has trade value. It might not be in the first or early second round range. Yet there is no doubt several teams will be thrilled to add Wagner to their roster. It would give them defensive legitimacy and instantly add smarts and leadership to their entire team.
Arguments against trading him
– The Seahawks have dug themselves a hole. Wagner is their best player on defense and they do not have many others that are even close. 2020 might not have been his best season but make no mistake; he earned his entire salary captaining this mess of a defense. So far, 2021 is not tracking much differently. So they may have to pay the piper by once again having a huge number on the cap at the MIKE spot.
– If the Seahawks do trade Russell Wilson, they will have a serious void of star power and leadership in the locker room. There would be a bit of a ‘will the last guy out of the Seahawks locker room please turn out the lights’ fatalism going on among fans and it would be justified. Keeping him and putting him front and center as part of the ‘next phase’ effort would go a long way towards maintaining some legitimacy.
– Bobby Wagner is a known quantity. The $9m of cap relief trading him would bring is not. There is an underlying mistrust of the front office among fans. It is not hard to imagine the Seahawks taking that $9m and buying three low-impact players at $3m each and calling it good. And now they are fielding Cody Barton and Jordyn Brooks as their starting linebackers. Therefore, not only would the team have not solved their issues on the defensive line but they have also now significantly weakened the strongest part of the roster on defense. That just cannot happen.
– He only has a $3.75m dead cap hit in 2022 when the Seahawks have an enormous amount of cap room. There is a strong argument for converting some 2021 salary to a bonus, kicking another $3.75m or so onto that 2022 number for around a $7.5m dead cap hit and trading or cutting him in 2022. That would accomplish 3 things: You make some 2021 cap room, keep Wagner on your roster and a $7.5m dead cap hit in a year of massive room is not a bad bargain. You also gain a whopping $16m of cap room in 2022 when the Seahawks move on from him.
3. Do they bring K.J. Wright back?
Ask any fan that question going into the 2020 season and you would get a resounding ‘no’ to bringing Wright back. A big cap hit and Jordyn Brooks along with Wright’s age and likely salary demands made that call easy.
Well, K.J. had other plans. A fantastic season has forced his name back into the conversation.
It still might be too much of a reach to bring him back. They have a decision to make on Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks looks ready to take the SAM/WILL spot Wright occupied in 2020, if not the MIKE spot in 2021.
More than once K.J. has gone on record as saying he is not giving the Seahawks a discount to play for them going forward. He has every right to that stance after having a fantastic and frankly underrated career in Seattle.
However, the market reality is going to hit several players this offseason and Wright might be among them.
This could be a player the Seahawks play the long game with. If he gets a nice contract for another team, we can all salute him as one of the all-time great Seahawks and wish him well on his new team.
However, there is a scenario that is easy to envision where Wright is not signed through the first wave and the draft and come summertime still has not found a team. The Seahawks could be in a position to offer him a mutually beneficial one-year deal that keeps him in the fold and lets him test the market again in 2022.
Of course, that would have to be after the Seahawks have settled their other top priorities like the lines on both sides and have added a cornerback or two to the roster.
4. Is 2021 Cody Barton’s last chance to make his mark at linebacker in Seattle?
This will be his third season after a very checkered two seasons at linebacker. The Seahawks drafting a linebacker in the first round last year was a damning statement about how they view him. Further strengthening that statement was his play in 2020 and the fact that the Seahawks benched him the minute Jordyn Brooks was healthy.
Pete Carroll attempted to prop him up a couple of times in the press. Once acknowledging that Barton made mistakes the prior week but saying he knows what he did and would not make them again. The following week he got trucked by the Vikings and was not seen again on the defense until two months later when he came in on mop-up duty in the Jets blowout.
Fan confidence is low. Coaches’ confidence is low. Can he take some of the mojo he gained by being a Special Teams demon and force his way into the conversation for regular playing time at linebacker in 2021?
It is unfortunate that this is where Seattle is with Barton. If he were playing at ‘adequate-starter’ level, the Seahawks could easily clear Wagner and Wright’s salaries off the books and strengthen other areas of the team.
Ken Norton Jr is a linebacker and a linebacker coach at heart. If he can get Barton turned into a useful piece of the defense in 2021, it will have been a fantastic piece of coaching but nobody should bet the house on it.
Rob’s Thoughts on the Draft Class and Potential Targets
We’ve often talked about the importance of elite agility and overall athleticism when it comes to Seattle’s preferences at the position. With no combine this year, it’s very difficult to pinpoint who might be on their radar.
Baron Browning is an outstanding athlete with great length, speed and explosive traits. Cam McGrone is one of the more underrated players in this class — he’s incredibly quick to work through traffic and just fly’s to the ball.
Justin Hilliard had a terrific end to the 2020 season (especially against Northwestern). He’s undersized but really quick and he packs a punch for his frame. Dylan Moses was once considered a top-end prospect but his star faded after suffering an ACL injury.
Monty Rice is solid if unspectacular and former quarterback Chaz Surratt has a decent level of physical upside but is still really learning the position. Auburn’s KJ Britt had a great Senior Bowl game and plays with anger and intensity. He’s been praised for his work ethic and attitude.
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There are a lot of connected people when it comes to Russell Wilson.
Colin Cowherd is close to Seattle’s quarterback. Mike Florio and Jason La Canfora use Mark Rodgers as a source. Adam Schefter clearly gets info from the Wilson camp.
There’s another journalist who is particularly reliable when it comes to the Seahawks.
On December 17th, 2017, Michael Silver shocked the NFL.
Many people questioned the validity of the report because it seemed so outrageous. Especially the Bennett news. Much like the current Russell Wilson chatter, the recurring theme was he couldn’t be traded due to the financial penalty the Seahawks would incur.
Yet it all came true. Every last word.
It was the end of the LOB era.
Now, Silver is on the case regarding Wilson’s future.
Initially he revealed the starting point for trade talks would be three first round picks. Last week, he said the situation was far worse than he initially thought. He suggested the Seahawks wouldn’t be doing their jobs properly if they didn’t listen to trade offers, making it clear that’s what they were doing.
“There is smoke and there is fire. We don’t know what the outcome’s going to be but there absolutely are trade talks between the Seahawks and other teams.”
“Remember, this isn’t just the Seahawks saying, ‘hey we want to see what’s out there’. You have a player who is clearly very, very unhappy and I think people are naive, who would look at a situation where a players agent publicly says, ‘we’re not saying we want to get traded but these four teams are the ones if we get traded’. If you think that is normal for a player who wants to stay with his current team, to put out publicly you’re vastly misreading this situation.”
“Right now it is absolutely frosty and this is a fluid situation and I think we’ll have a lot more resolution by next week.”
So there you go.
If this is going to happen, it has to be done by next week. Any buying team needs to be able to plan accordingly and so do the Seahawks. You can’t start building a roster in free agency and then trade your quarterback after the first flush.
Neither can you sign free agents with uncertainty hanging over the franchise. Who is going to commit to Seattle with this issue lingering? Likewise, let’s say the Bears trade for Wilson. That’s a major recruiting tool they otherwise won’t have.
So one way or another this needs to be done by the 15th March, unless the NFL delays the start of free agency due to the mystery surrounding the salary cap.
That means some form of public truce between the Seahawks and Wilson — potentially with a statement move such as a contract extension.
Or it means parting ways.
I wanted to raise two other issues today.
Firstly, what does it say about the state of this team when DJ Reed is tweeting this immediately after Carlos Dunlap was cut?
If I were the Seahawks I’d be quite concerned that someone like Reed feels emboldened to criticise the Dunlap decision.
It makes you wonder what the social media reaction will be if they trade away a franchise quarterback.
What are the players thinking right now? They’ll be seeing all this Russell Wilson trade stuff doing the rounds. Clearly Wilson is unhappy and will talk to other members of the team who might share his frustration.
The fallout of trading Wilson could be significant, short of making a subsequent power move like trading for Deshaun Watson (which is frankly impossible when you don’t have your native picks to pair with any additional picks you get for Wilson).
This isn’t franchise mode on Madden where you end up with loads of resources and just carry on. Players will react to a Wilson trade. They will have opinions. They might feel like if they create enough of a fuss they can get out too.
Keeping the lid on this is going to be extremely difficult. The problem is — I’m not sure forcing a clearly unhappy Russell Wilson to stick around is a better option. Either situation seems highly toxic.
Next, if a Wilson trade occurs there will need to be subsequent moves made by the Seahawks. For all the talk of rebuilding if it happens, there is no way Pete Carroll will see it that way. He and John Schneider will set out to create a competitive team.
Whether they achieve it or not is a different matter. Yet they won’t be playing a long game.
Silver provided some thoughts on what happens next…
It’s interesting that he’s already talking about life beyond Wilson and perhaps even revealing what Seattle’s plan is.
If/when Wilson is dealt, it appears they will make a corresponding trade for another quarterback rather than rely solely on the draft.
As noted before, they simply don’t have the firepower to deal for Deshaun Watson. They don’t have their own picks thanks to the Jamal Adams trade. Teams like Miami and the New York Jets possess multiple first and second rounders and they can offer an easy route to a replacement QB in the top five.
You might suggest that Watson would prefer to come to Seattle. Really? Right after Russell Wilson just forced his way out?
Even if the Seahawks acquired three firsts and three seconds from the Bears, that probably wouldn’t be enough to simply parlay into a Watson trade.
So who else is out there?
Sam Darnold might be an option. It’s easy to forget that in 2018, a lot of teams had him graded as the top player in the draft (or at least the top quarterback). He was seen as a potential franchise saver.
It hasn’t worked for him in New York amid a chaotic situation.
There are a couple of issues here.
Firstly, what is the compensation? For a mid-round pick, Darnold’s a worthwhile flier. Are the Jets willing to let him go for that kind of price though, even as they seemingly prepare to draft a new quarterback with the #2 pick?
The last time the Seahawks negotiated a somewhat desperate trade with the Jets, they ended up giving away a kings ransom.
I would argue anything more than a third rounder would be pushing it for a player who hasn’t shown enough in three years in the NFL to think he’s franchise quarterback material, regardless of how he was viewed coming into the league.
Secondly, he’s in the final year of his rookie contract. You could use the fifth year option in 2022. After that, he’d need a new deal. So there’s little long-term security here and not much in the way of financial benefit.
If the Seahawks wanted Darnold their best bet would probably be to wait until the Jets (presumably) take Zach Wilson with the second pick. By that point, they’d have no leverage and time would be of the essence.
However, look at the 2019 draft. The Arizona Cardinals took Kyler Murray with the #1 pick. They didn’t trade Josh Rosen until day two of the draft — and they still got the #62 pick back in a trade. Granted, Rosen had years left on his rookie contract. Even so, it’s not obvious whether you’d get much of a discount if you waited all the way until the end of April for Darnold.
Making matters worse — there are still suggestions that the 49ers might make a move here, despite recent public backing for Jimmy Garoppolo. The thought of the Seahawks getting overly aggressive in a trade battle with a division rival over a quarterback is terrifying. The thought of the Seahawks making any kind of aggressive trade is terrifying, given their track record (Harvin, Graham, Richardson, Adams).
Jordan Love could be an option. Again, it will largely depend on what Seattle’s impression of Love was going into the 2020 draft.
The Packers drafted him to be the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers. Yet Rodgers went on to win the MVP and play some of the best football of his career. He turns 38 in December but doesn’t show any signs of slowing down. Tom Brady has also shown age is just a number these days, as long as you keep producing.
Green Bay only gets another three years of generous club control with Love. They may decide it’s best to wait and see what happens for another year or two. Or they may decide to show some commitment to Rodgers, given what he achieved last year, by trading Love and using that stock to improve the existing roster.
I’m not sure they could realistically expect to get a first round pick back. Depending on how a team viewed Love, a second rounder could be plausible.
It’d be the same kind of situation as Rosen. You couldn’t really blame the Packers for trying to plan ahead and then deciding, with hindsight, they’re better off just doing whatever they can to support Rodgers.
Love flashed extreme physical potential at Utah State but there were question marks relating to his processing and decision making. If the Seahawks did deal for him he’d only cost $1.1m this year, $1.7m next year and $2.2m in 2023. That in itself would be valuable. It all comes down to how you graded him a year ago and whether you believe you can win with him.
Marcus Mariota and Gardner Minshew could be targets. Mariota would need to re-work his contract because his salary jumps from $10m to $20m if he starts. Minshew would be cheap and cheerful. If nothing else he’d provide some fireworks. With both players you would need to add competition, either from a veteran or a rookie.
A more outlandish suggestion could be Matt Ryan but the Falcons appear set on him starting in 2021 with a quarterback being drafted with the #4 or #35 pick to develop.
Silver is pretty clear though that if Wilson is dealt, they’re going to go hunting for someone they think they can win with. None of these options are going to ‘wow’ anybody. The reality is, if they deal Wilson — which is possible — they’re going to replace him with someone you’re pretty underwhelmed with. The key is going to be whether they can utilise their new found cap space and picks to create a roster capable of competing.
After all, this is a list to remember:
2015 — The Broncos win the Super Bowl with an ineffective Peyton Manning at quarterback, having spent the regular season rotating with Brock Osweiler
2017 — Nick Foles vs Case Keenum in the NFC Championship game
2017 — Nick Foles wins the Super Bowl and is named MVP
2017 — Blake Bortles plays in the AFC Championship game and comes within minutes of reaching the Super Bowl
2018 — Jared Goff plays in the Super Bowl
2019 — Jimmy Garoppolo plays in the Super Bowl
2019 — Ryan Tannehill plays in the AFC Championship game
Not to mention Eli Manning won the Super Bowl twice and Joe Flacco also won the Super Bowl and was named MVP.
So while it is clearly important to have a very good quarterback — recent history tells us success is not exclusive to those with a top-five signal caller.
Nobody has traded away a franchise QB in his prime for an obscene amount of compensation. The Seahawks, if they do it, will be a litmus test for the rest of the league. Paying an elite quarterback versus trading them for a haul. Managing the cap and spreading out your resources. It’ll be fascinating to see what the results are.
This is especially true in light of Dallas’ mega-deal with Dak Prescott.
One of Wilson’s four preferred destinations is also now off the table. Will he replace them with another suitor? Will the Bears or Saints make a big move in the coming days?
Will people start taking this seriously and stop obsessing about dead-cap hits and the fact the Bears only own the #20 pick this year?
It should be an interesting week.
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Adding some nuance to the narratives around a Russell Wilson trade
This is a guest post from Curtis Allen
The Russell Wilson trade drama has really shifted into gear in the last three weeks and it has rightly dominated the sports landscape in Seattle.
Several one-line narratives have emerged in the media about a potential trade and they keep being repeated over and over and over again.
This presents a challenge — there is a bit of a danger of these simple viewpoints hardening like concrete.
As we all know, one-line narratives rarely reveal the breadth and width and depth of the situation. Particularly a situation that could shift the balance of power across the league and reshape the face of Seahawks football as we know it for the next 10 years.
– A superstar player being unhappy with one of the NFL’s premier organizations
– A potential trade that could be one of the biggest in NFL history
– Four flagging franchises that could be revitalized by the acquisition of a franchise quarterback in his prime
– One of the NFL’s most decorated coaches starting a whole new cycle of his professional career at a time when most coaches retire and doing it on his terms
This is far, far too big a story to just be dismissed with 10 word answers, no matter how emphatically they are said. Simple answers can blind you to the reality of the situation and only muddy perspectives at a time when truth and objectivity needs every single word it can get its hands on. Every fissure of this story needs to be explored. Nuance is critical.
So here are some thoughts on the narratives that are being discussed in relation to this potentially massive event.
Narrative: The $39m dead cap hit is a big obstacle to a pre-June 1st Russell Wilson trade
Why the narrative has merit:
$39m is over 20% of the total 2021 salary cap for the Seahawks. Having one fifth of your cap dedicated to a player not on your roster is a serious blow to your efforts to build a contending roster in 2021.
There is more resistance to a trade when that player is an all-time Seahawks great.
Even more resistance is added when the reason for eating dead cap is not because he is injured, retired or suspended by the league. He is in his prime and will be lighting it up for another team and perhaps taking them deep in the playoffs.
It would be a particularly hard pill to swallow.
Nuance: The Seahawks have the flexibility available to absorb the hit and not need to shred their roster
The team currently has $4m of cap room. Trading Russell Wilson away will eat $7m of cap room and put them in the red.
Any proceeds from a trade, such as players and 2021 draft picks will lower that number even further.
Further lowering the cap is the fact that they will then need to add a quarterback to the roster.
Here is the good news: The Seahawks currently have over $72million of “movable cap space” on their roster. What is that?
It is non-guaranteed money owed to players. The 2021 cap hit can easily be lowered to get the team under the cap by any combination of negotiating their contract down, extending, restructuring, cutting or trading players.
Furthermore, if the Seahawks trade Russell Wilson, they will have approximately $178million of cap room in 2022 to work with. They could easily push some 2021 money into the following season.
They can operate in the same way in the free agent market. They could get creative, crafting contracts with a minimal hit in 2021 and a bigger hit in 2022.
Will they be handcuffing themselves in the future with bloated contracts for ageing players? That is the beauty of it – they won’t. Any downside of using future cap is more than counterbalanced by the return of trading their biggest roster asset.
With a huge haul of draft picks and no top three quarterback salary to pay, the Seahawks will reap a double benefit of having nearly half of their roster stocked with cheap young talent that can contribute right away, veteran players who can provide leadership and still play at a very high level and bunches of cap room to make major moves in the market.
Will it take some clever structuring by the Seahawks? Yes.
Will it cause some sleepless nights, not having a franchise QB locked on your roster? Yes.
Is it a workable solution to the current standoff? Yes.
Is it preferable to a miserable 2021 with an unhappy Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll trying to coexist? Yes.
****
Narrative: You trade Wilson and you can write off the next three seasons while you rebuild
Why the narrative has merit:
A true franchise quarterback is the most sought-after commodity in the NFL.
He can cover up, minimize or simply overcome a multitude of roster holes in other areas. Seahawks fans have had a front row seat to witness that with Russell Wilson, particularly in 2020.
Any team that trades their franchise quarterback is immediately tasked with filling the biggest hole on their roster.
Nuance: The hefty return the Seahawks would receive in trade opens up all kinds of options to remain competitive
The magnitude of the return means the Seahawks can get both a top level player or two that provide instant productivity and multiple draft picks to inject youth and talent into the roster. Those holes that had to be covered by a franchise QB are no longer holes.
As noted above, the Seahawks also all of the sudden have enough cap room to immediately buy the top free agent at any position they choose in 2022 if they like.
They would be in a position to assess the QB prospects in the 2021 draft and make a move.
Seattle would also be a very intriguing destination for a free agent QB.
Want to come to Seattle and play for a Super Bowl winning coach? Get fawned over by the local media and never asked a tough question in your life?
Throw to two of the best wide receivers in the game?
Get protected by Duane Brown and some young bucks on the interior?
Get supported by a stout defense headlined by a Mack or a Lattimore along with Bobby Wagner and Carlos Dunlap?
A trade like this also puts them back in their wheelhouse. They absolutely excel when they have resources, build depth and allow opportunities to come to them. They can focus on maximizing value and talent over need in the draft and the free agent market.
When they have extra cap room and draft picks to trade, they are able to add high-value players at a very reasonable cost, whether in the post-draft market or in-season.
This offseason will likely see many opportunities to add talented veteran players at very affordable prices if they play their cards right.
This has always been a better place for them. When they reach to fill needs, they frequently only fill their hands with trouble.
****
Narrative: Even with a raft of picks Pete Carroll and John Schneider can’t draft well enough to rebuild successfully
Why the narrative has merit:
LJ Collier. Darrell Taylor. Malik McDowell. Cody Barton. Rashaad Penny.
You don’t need to look too far to find draft misses on this team.
Nuance: There has been a measure of effectiveness in building the team in recent seasons. This will also energize the Front Office’s focus like no other move.
Damien Lewis, Jordyn Brooks, DK Metcalf in the draft.
Poona Ford in the UDFA market. DJ Reed in the waiver market.
Quandre Diggs and Carlos Dunlap as fantastic in-season value trades.
There has been success. John Schneider has not completely lost his touch.
Consider this though: There is an added dimension when trading Wilson. It would be a return to a state where John Schneider and Pete Carroll operate at their best.
They have proven to be much stronger at building a winner than maintaining a winner.
Being free of a quarterback with a massive salary, an even bigger public persona, and very specific public demands about the offense and personnel allows them to reshape the team in their vision.
In trading Wilson, they will have taken on a massive challenge. It will no doubt focus their minds and their efforts like no other task they have recently faced. There is something about taking on a big risk that brings clarity and focus to the mind unlike anything else.
At the same time, it will re-invigorate both of them. How often do you get to build a team up to a Super Bowl champion and stay long enough to move on from nearly all the players from that team? And then start over with a bonanza of draft picks, a top-flight player or two and massive cap room added to a roster that already has talent?
The opportunity is tantalizing.
They both received contract extensions recently. The plain fact is they aren’t going anywhere. There would be tremendous incentive to make this work.
****
Narrative: Fans will abandon the Seahawks in droves for trading Russell Wilson.
Why the narrative has merit:
They’d be trading one of the most successful and well-liked players in franchise history.
Nuance: While the fans would rightly be upset over the team trading Wilson there is no doubt the next two seasons will absolutely capture our interest.
Fan interest in the 2021 draft will skyrocket. The Seahawks will go from having only three or four draft picks to having many more and be big time players on draft day.
Training camp will be abuzz with all the new players and everyone will want to get a look at the rookies and see how they fit on the team. Excitement about the defense will return and be justified this time.
The in-season weekly discussion will have a complete breath of fresh air to it. Rather than discussing stale topics like “Let Russ Cook” or how poorly the defense has performed, the focus will shift to a tough defense and marvelling at the next stage in DK Metcalf’s development into one of the all time greats.
If you missed the interview with Minnesota cornerback Benjamin St-Juste yesterday, check it out here:
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The Seahawks are long overdue a draft-hit at cornerback. Benjamin St. Juste certainly fits the bill with his length, incredible athleticism and personality. Check out the interview below and please share it around if you’re able.
Also, consider subscribing to my YouTube channel for all of the interviews and podcasts. I will also be starting a regular live stream broadcast on YouTube very soon.
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Exclusive Rights Free Agents: Ryan Neal, Linden Stephens
Players Signed to Futures Contracts: Gavin Heslop, Jordan Miller
Salary Cap Notes
2021 Cap Commitment: $21.4 million (12.02% of $178m cap)
None of Diggs’ $5.5m salary or Adams’ $9.86m salary are guaranteed in 2021
Franchise Tag — the 2021 numbers have not been finalized yet but we can look at the 2020 numbers for a good idea of approximately what they will be:
Tag for Safety in 2020: $11.4m exclusive, $9.86m transition
Tag for Cornerback in 2020: $16.3m exclusive, $14.2m transition
2020 Season Overview
It was a dreadful season for this group. Injuries, lack of pass rush from the defensive line and lack of chemistry all badly hurt this unit.
Injuries:
– Three of the projected starting four (Griffin, Dunbar, Adams) missed a total of 18 games and had their performance seriously diminished by injury in many others
– Key players Marquise Blair and Tre Flowers missed another 18 games
Bringing Jamal Adams into the defense introduced another set of challenges. The Seahawks blitzed Jamal Adams out of the strong safety position almost as much in only his first three games (31 times) as they had Bradley McDougald in his previous two seasons total (34 times).
That introduced the factor of the corners, linebackers and free safety getting less coverage help than the Seahawks usually scheme for.
Add in the fact that the Seahawks did not add effective pass rushers to an already poor defensive line and this unit was seriously lacking support and frequently left to their own devices. They just could not live up to handling that kind of workload.
The 2020 quarterback ratings allowed by this starting group demonstrated that clearly:
If there was ever an offseason that the defensive backs needed to get healthy and on the same page as a group, this was it. Unfortunately, the shortened offseason, injuries and major scheme changes all conspired to make this an historically bad unit in the first half of the season.
At one point in the early going, an exasperated and embarrassed Pete Carroll told reporters the backfield played ‘like they did not practice all week.’ Later he expressed frustration that the players were doing everything the coaches needed to see in practice but could not translate that to the game on Sunday.
In the second half they improved enough to avoid going into the record books as the worst of all time but this unit was adjusting on the fly all season, without a solid base to work from. That frankly caused too many problems to effectively put a cohesive unit together.
There are some bright spots to be found in 2020 though.
Jamal Adams collected 9.5 sacks on all those blitzes and killed some drives. He helped an improved pass rush put up better numbers in 2020.
DJ Reed proved to be an excellent find by John Schneider. Plucked from San Francisco when they waived him with an injury designation, he turned out to be durable, fiery and fantastic in coverage. He brought a spark in the return game as well. He was praised by Pete Carroll for having ‘elite’ foot quickness and acceleration.
He then took another big step forward, taking on the vacant outside cornerback spot and playing very well. Carroll remarked that Reed does not fit his physical ideals for the outside position, that Schneider talked him into acquiring him and he has worked out well for the club.
The Seahawks have Reed under contract for another season. If he can translate his 2020 play into 16 games of 2021 play they will have found a gem and saved themselves a lot of money.
Ugo Amadi was clearly behind Marquise Blair on the depth chart in Pete Carroll’s mind going into the season. Yet when Blair got hurt, Amadi got his shot and proved to be a nice option at the nickel spot, earning praise from his coach and putting his name into the mix for 2021. There were times in 2020 that Amadi seemed like the only corner on the field who both knew what he was doing and was doing it with skill and toughness.
Ryan Neal was an intriguing player in 2020. He went from nearly quitting football to being a valuable piece to occasionally starting in Jamal Adams’ place. He had some key plays early in the season, including an interception to put the game on ice against Dallas and a couple fantastic hits. He also showed some ability when called on to blitz in the Adams role and had a blocked punt in the Giants game. He is an Exclusive Rights free agent and an easy choice to bring back for depth in 2021.
Offseason Questions to Address
1. Are the Seahawks really going to shape their defense as well as their salary cap around Jamal Adams?
We need to talk about the offseason elephant in the defensive room. Jamal Adams.
Absent a Russell Wilson trade, what they do with Jamal Adams could determine the entire direction this team takes this offseason, from how they deploy the players they already have on the roster, to who they draft, to what free agent decisions they make, to how much cap money they have available in the next 3-4 seasons.
It demands the team’s attention. Right now.
The Seahawks made probably the biggest trade splash in their history last offseason, trading first round picks in 2021 and 2022, a third-round pick in 2021 and Bradley McDougald to the Jets for Adams and a 2022 fourth round pick.
Pete Carroll spent all season praising Adams as well as John Schneider for working so hard to get this trade done. Doth protesting a little too much perhaps. It might have been a public attempt to justify giving up such a massive haul to upgrade the strong safety spot.
While he did have 9.5 sacks and a couple of key defensive tackles, he returned a terrible QB rating in coverage, only had three passes defensed and did not record an interception. Put another way, when he was not getting a pressure on the quarterback, he was not much of an asset to this team at all.
PFF was not swayed by Adams setting the sack record for defensive backs, rating him at an uninspiring 64 grade in 2020 (53rd ranked safety).
An acquisition of that magnitude should answer more questions than it raises. Yet the harsh reality is the opposite is true. The Seahawks have several questions they need to work through when it comes to Jamal Adams.
Can he stay healthy for 16 games? He had groin and shoulder injuries in 2020. Given his size, how long can he stay healthy regularly lining up across players who outweigh him by 60-80 pounds and then throwing his body at running backs trying to block him?
Is it acceptable that he only created one turnover in 2020?
Honestly – where does he fit in Pete Carroll’s vision of the defense?
Pete has never blitzed his strong safety this much. Can the Seahawks reconcile the cost of having a safety so frequently blitzing with the results he brings?
Is he going to improve in coverage? Or do you need to blitz him eight times a game to get max value? If that is the case, what do you get with him that you do not get with say Ryan Neal at a fraction of the cost?
If the Seahawks are going to pay Adams like a feature piece of the defense and play him the way they did in 2020, they are going to need the corners to be outstanding in man coverage more frequently than Pete’s system traditionally calls for.
Also, the free safety will not have the freedom (pun not intended) to roam around and make plays – he will regularly be too busy covering deep looks and making sure the region behind the linebackers is not completely empty. Are those factors worth the 9-10 manufactured sacks they will get from Adams, or will it put too much strain on the defense?
Plainly put, if Adams is free to blitz unblocked, that means there is an offensive player that is uncovered. It is very likely that clever coordinators and accurate quarterbacks, having had a season of tape on Adams, can take advantage of these scheme concerns enough to control the flow of the game.
Do they have an answer for these issues?
Adams is highly strung and never fails to speak his mind. While the vibe is fun when he is happy and motivated, it needs to be asked – what kind of effect will he have on the team when he is unhappy?
He will likely require a top market contract and be justified in asking for it since the Seahawks gave up so much capital in trade without conditioning the deal on working out an extension. How much will it be? The floor seems set at Budda Baker’s $14.75million per season but Adams will likely ask for much more, if the leverage wielded by Jalen Ramsey and Laremy Tunsil is any indication.
Brass tacks: Adams played 784 defensive snaps in 2020. He got 25 quarterback pressures in 98 blitzes. So, 73 of those snaps he blitzed and did not record a pressure and the backfield was on their own. The rest of those 686 snaps? He was a league average player.
Are those 25 pressures worth a contract averaging $15million per season? Let alone the $20million he will likely ask for?
Can the team reconcile all these questions and concerns?
The Seahawks have put the expensive engagement ring on his finger. Are they ready to book the chapel and rent a tuxedo?
If you are going to consider trading him, this is the offseason to do it. His value will never be higher.
2. Do they need to completely revamp the outside cornerback spot?
They have Tre Flowers and DJ Reed currently on the roster with starting outside corner experience but that is it.
Shaquille Griffin and Quinton Dunbar, the starters in 2020, are unrestricted free agents. They did nothing to inspire hope that they will be effective in 2021. Nor did either of those players make the team think of giving them any kind of serious contract in terms of years or dollars.
The Seahawks coaches have been very positive about Griffin but he recorded a 64.1 PFF grade in 2020. He surrendered six touchdowns and was often very open about this awful play. After a very poor performance in the Dallas game, he admitted the Cowboys lulled him to sleep by not throwing his way much and then hitting him with a deep ball.
It was generally thought that Griffin had made excellent progress in his third year but in 2020 he regressed. The best that can be said about Griffin at this point is he has been a four-year starter in the league.
The Seahawks will likely let Griffin test the market and see what his value is. In this depressed market he could need to accept a bargain one year contract and try to reestablish value for 2022. Some team may feel like he is worth a nice contract but absent a serious leap in performance, that team should not be the Seahawks.
Dunbar was clearly an upgrade from Tre Flowers when healthy. That did not last long. His knee was an issue for him all season and the Seahawks finally shut him down. They paid a draft pick in trade and over $3m in salary to Dunbar and got very little in return. He will have to prove his knee issue is not chronic and likely take a veteran minimum deal to prove he can still play in the NFL at this point. With his legal and injury troubles, 2020 was a lost season for Dunbar.
Tre Flowers should not be counted on to be a starting corner in the NFL. The experiment has not produced the results that the Seahawks have hoped for. He openly struggled with his confidence off and on all season and his play reflected that.
He will have one more year on his cheap rookie contract and if he is brought back in 2022, it would likely be for the veteran minimum and the promise he can fight for a spot on the roster, no more. In the meantime, it would not be wise of the Seahawks to consider him a starter in 2021.
So, can DJ Reed take one of the two starting spots? Can the Seahawks go into the offseason thinking they have the right cornerback spot covered between Reed with Flowers as his backup?
If so that just leaves the left cornerback spot to be filled.
Richard Sherman might be a great fit at that spot. He has expressed that he is likely done in San Francisco and a return might be a welcome option for both parties. The Seahawks badly need some leadership in the backfield and with their thin depth, Sherman could assist in grooming the next late round corner find on the roster.
As the Seahawks will likely be still working out their pass rush issues in 2021, there will be games they will need the corners to take their man without help. Sherman could do that.
One of the underrated areas where Sherman could really be a great addition to Seattle is in run support. He is an able and willing tackler in the run game. He is not afraid to take on the pulling blocker and disrupt the play or lower his head and take a runner’s feet out from under him.
Griffin has not been very good in this area. Several games this season he was blocked right out of the play and the ball carrier ran right through the spot he was supposed to seal off and had nice gains.
Sherman has been injured, so the Seahawks would really have to do their homework on him to get him checked out first.
As well his contract demands would have to be reasonable and he would need to desire to play in Seattle again. It still appears to be a fit.
3. What do the Seahawks do with Marquise Blair?
Pete Carroll raved about Blair perhaps more than any other player on the roster in 2020.
He frequently singled him out for praise unprompted when talking to the media.
In his final press conference for the season, Carroll confirmed Blair’s rehab is going well and reiterated how excited he was about having him on the team in 2021. It will be very interesting to see where the Seahawks deploy him next season.
Do they keep the nickel cornerback experiment going? Or do they shift him back to a role as one of the safeties?
Trading Jamal Adams would open up a big, big role at strong safety.
Quandre Diggs is also in the last year of his contract. Would they groom Blair as the free safety to be the first up if Diggs gets hurt and then take the job over in 2022?
Ugo Amadi has impressed with his play at nickel. Would they want to move him back to free safety to get Blair on the field?
Finding out where the Seahawks think Blair fits best will be an interesting development to watch this offseason.
Rob’s thoughts on this draft class and potential Seahawks targets
It’s a deep class with several attractive options. I’ve updated my horizontal board in the last few days and it shows off the depth of talent:
In particular for the Seahawks, I think Benjamin St. Juste has the length, intelligence, run defending skills and attitude to be a project with serious potential at corner. I’ll be posting an interview with him over the weekend.
Eric Stokes at Georgia could also present a decent option. He was very consistent in the SEC and has the required size and length.
There were a cluster of other defenders with +32 inch arms at the Senior Bowl:
Bryan Mills (CB, NC Central)
6-1, 180lbs, 32 inch arms — flashed some good moments during the Senior Bowl
Robert Rochell (CB, Central Arkansas)
6-0, 195lbs, 32 3/8 inch arms — has been tested and ran a 4.38 then jumped an 11-8 broad and a 41 inch vertical
Mark Webb (CB, Georgia)
6-1 1/2, 210lbs, 32 1/8 inch arms — good reviews from his week in Mobile
Ifeatu Melifonwu (CB, Syracuse)
6-2 5/8, 212lbs, 32 1/8 inch arms — the brother of former combine standout Obi Melifonwu
D.J. Daniel (CB, Georgia)
6-0, 183lbs, 33 inch arms — also received positive reviews from Mobile
Basically if the Seahawks want to take a corner in this draft — they can do.
If they want to shift away from the strict parameters on arm length, Washington’s Keith Taylor had a terrific Senior Bowl. Ambry Thomas flashed cover talent and an aggressive playing style at Michigan.
Elijah Molden is one of the best players in the entire draft. He’s likely to go too early for the Seahawks.
It’ll be a stunning set of events if the Seahawks take a safety in this draft. There are still a handful of options but nobody you’d necessarily want to bang the table for over other, more serious needs.
If you’re on Twitter, please share this tweet and help change the conversation on this whole Russell Wilson trade saga:
For the last week, I've been trying to dispel the 'Russell Wilson can't be traded because of his dead-cap hit' myth. Here's a breakdown of the situation…
Yesterday, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler offered the following report specifically discussing Russell Wilson’s interest in playing for the Chicago Bears:
Hit on the Bears’ outlook on @SportsCenter: Why Russell Wilson likes Chicago, how Seattle is handling this, fallback options, Mitch Trubisky’s chances of a return and Allen Robinson. pic.twitter.com/aXv3Fzc03Y
It’s not immediately clear why this information was made public yesterday. Why, after all, would Wilson’s people want his interest in Chicago clarified in isolation?
Everything that is reported at the moment feels like bargaining through the media. Which, let’s be right, has been the case between the Seahawks and Wilson dating back to his first contract extension in 2014.
This is how Mark Rodgers operates and Seattle’s top brass are seemingly willing to play the game. After all, Michael Silver is extremely connected to the Seahawks and last week he revealed ‘the starting point for negotiations’ was three first round picks. Then this week, he stated the situation was more serious than he initially thought.
The mention of Chicago likely had a purpose. Just as the continued denials from the Seahawks likely have a purpose too. If any journalist rings John Schneider right now, he isn’t going to say anything other than Wilson isn’t for sale. Why? Because there’s zero negotiating advantage in admitting you’re open to a deal.
The thinking among multiple sources is the Bears have prioritized making a run at Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson.
So why are the Bears possibly emerging as the most viable option?
First and foremost, there’s a sense of desperation.
GM Ryan Pace is the man who traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky when he could’ve had Patrick Mahomes or Deshaun Watson. If the Bears have another season like the last two in 2021, there’s a reasonable chance he will be fired.
Matt Nagy, the Head Coach, is in a similar boat.
Compare that to the other three teams. There’s no imminent pressure on Sean Payton or Jon Gruden. In Dallas, Jerry Jones isn’t going to fire himself.
If Pace made a deal for Wilson, he’d go from zero to hero in an instant. Regardless of cost. He would be the man who landed a franchise quarterback, filling a decades long void for fans in Chicago.
The Bears would be competitive in 2021 and both the GM and the Head Coach would benefit greatly.
They’ve been bold and ambitious before. Pace famously traded multiple high picks to the Raiders for Khalil Mack. There’s precedent for big trades and big statement moves within this organisation.
So the motivation is there to do what it takes to make this happen.
People wonder why Wilson would pick Chicago, of all teams. There are actually plenty of reasons.
The Bears were 12-4 in 2018 with Trubisky at quarterback. Last year, as they mixed between Trubisky and Foles, they still made the playoffs and finished 8-8 after a 5-1 start.
Tampa Bay went from 7-9 to Super Bowl Champions after acquiring Tom Brady. With Wilson at quarterback, Chicago would be competitive.
Furthermore, the desperation works in Wilson’s favour. If he can’t persuade Pete Carroll to do what he wants, he’ll surely have no trouble convincing Pace and Nagy to buy in as they try and save their jobs. He’ll get the influence he craves — with the Bears likely basing their model around Brady and the Buccs.
When it comes to legacy, what could be better than succeeding at a storied franchise such as Chicago? In a huge market with plenty of attention and earning power.
In terms of compensation, it could be limitless. Again — this is a GM and Head Coach in self-preservation mode. Having draft picks for the next few years won’t be much use if someone else is using them.
While the Raiders, Cowboys and Saints have reason to have some self-control — the Bears pretty much have to get this done. They’re in ‘name your price’ territory.
Who knows what it could end up being? If Jamal Adams is worth two firsts, a third and a player — a franchise quarterback on a Hall of Fame trajectory could blow that deal out of the water. Three first rounders was the starting point. It could be anything. Use your imagination and then extend your expectations — you’ll probably be close by that point.
So while many people get caught up on Chicago ‘only’ having the #20 pick this year — in this instance quantity could top quality.
The key to any deal, however, is what veterans you acquire on top of any picks. Because quite rightly, people point out that Pete Carroll won’t want to go through a major rebuild as he nears 70-years-old. Any move has to come with a top-level player (or players) going to Seattle so they can try and construct a competitive (albeit different) roster for this year.
The clear and obvious target would be Khalil Mack.
He graded as the NFL’s #1 edge rusher in 2020 according to PFF with an elite grade of 92.5. He has been a consistently brilliant force. Adding him to Seattle’s defense could elevate the entire unit — allowing them to rush more effectively with four defensive linemen.
The Seahawks would have him under contract for the next four years with a salary of $17m in 2021, $12m in 2022 and $17m in 2023/24.
That would be a bargain for one of the best pass rushers in the league.
You could cut Carlos Dunlap, replace him with Mack, and it’d only cost you $3m to upgrade. And you could still re-sign Dunlap at a cheaper cost.
Of course, someone will mention Mack’s dead cap hit.
I’m starting a movement called ‘dead cap hits are overrated’.
When the Eagles can trade Carson Wentz and the Rams can trade Jared Goff and inherit Matt Stafford while being tens of millions over the cap, then it’s pretty clear teams can do whatever they want to manipulate salary.
And as I’ve pointed out a lot this week — Wilson’s dead cap hit is the biggest red herring on the internet at the moment.
Here are the facts on why it isn’t as significant as many will have you believe:
— The Seahawks, if they trade Wilson, would be left with -$500,000 to spend. It’s not a great situation but it’s still better than nine other teams in the NFL including the Saints (-$62m), Rams (-$35m), Eagles (-$34m) and Chiefs (-$22m)
— They would, however, clear $37m off the 2022 salary cap, leaving them with $178m to spend next year. That would be significantly more than any other team in the league. So they would have ample room to restructure or extend contracts this year to lower cap hits to create cap space. If they wanted to borrow $50m of their 2022 cap, they could do it easily. They’d still have a whopping $130m to spend next year
— If they waited 12 months to trade Wilson, it would still cost them $26m. So while many people keep saying ‘next year it’s easier to orchestrate a trade’ — the reality is it would still cost you a lot of money. And if you don’t resolve your issues with Wilson, you’d essentially be saying that $13m is more important to a multi-billion dollar franchise than avoiding a toxic 12 months with Mark Rodgers leaking to the media, the Head Coach and quarterback at odds with each other and the roster potentially splitting as players picked sides
This is why the dead cap hit stuff is massively overrated. It’s a mere inconvenience and not a road block.
When you hear people say a deal this year is impossible — they’re just wrong.
Going back to Mack, his dead cap hit this year is $21.4m. However — if the Seahawks are expected to write that off for Wilson, Chicago should be expected to do the same for Mack. It would also mean the Bears creating $27.1m in cap space next year, giving them $102m to spend in 2022.
So like the Seahawks, the Bears could add Wilson, trade Mack and borrow against the cap next year.
As a reward, they get Wilson at a discount price of $19m in 2021/22 and $22m in 2023.
As you can see, if you’re willing to look beyond one dead-cap hit number, there’s a pathway to this working out for both teams.
The Seahawks might ask for another Chicago player too. Nobody obvious springs to mind. You can list names, of course, and make a case for certain individuals. There’s nobody like Mack though who just stands out as a viable option.
Plenty of people will argue this is a bad deal because you’re not left with a viable starter at quarterback.
Here’s the reality. If you want a legit starting quarterback in 2021, then you need to make it work with Russell Wilson and accept what he is requesting. Otherwise, you have to prepare to go down a different path.
You would have major spending resources to take on a free agency period that is set up to be one of the most intriguing in years. You would also have a war-chest of draft picks.
It’s not unrealistic that you could create a loaded roster with increased talent on both sides of the ball.
And while it’s certainly preferable to have a fantastic quarterback, there are teams who succeed with lesser quarterbacks and extreme talent elsewhere.
After all, the Broncos won a Super Bowl in 2016 playing essentially without a functioning quarterback. Case Keenum took Minnesota to the NFC Championship a year later, where he lost to Nick Foles (who went on to win the Super Bowl). After that, Jared Goff and Jimmy Garoppolo represented the NFC at quarterback in the Super Bowl. Ryan Tannehill reached the AFC Championship in 2019 and Blake Bortles was a few minutes from the Super Bowl in 2017.
Clearly it’s not impossible to succeed without a top-five quarterback.
The Seahawks would need to create competition and a bridge to the future. For me, that would possibly mean signing a seasoned veteran (someone like Alex Smith), adding a younger veteran (Jacoby Brissett? Gardner Minshew?) and then drafting a rookie.
May the best man win. It worked in 2012.
Alternatively you could try and trade for someone like Sam Darnold or maybe even Jordan Love. I wouldn’t want to go big on either player, however. Marcus Mariota would be another option.
Personally, I don’t think Kellen Mond or Davis Mills are that far behind the top quarterbacks in this class. I wrote about both in detail last week. I think there’s a gap between Trevor Lawrence and the rest — and the next tier has a cluster of flawed yet talented players. I would include Mond and Mills within that tier.
I wouldn’t be that opposed to trading down from #20 and taking either with your top pick. You’ve got to buy some lottery tickets if you trade Wilson.
So there are some thoughts on how and why this might end up happening. For more on the situation with Wilson, watch our podcast below:
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