Danny Kelly from ‘the Ringer’ joined me earlier to discuss free agency and the Seahawks. You can watch the playback below.
The Seahawks have signed back Ethan Pocic today for $3m. Rather than start a new post I thought I’d just share a thought here. I think this is a draft hedge. It’s a cheap(ish) short-term deal for a player familiar with the team. If the center options are strong at #56, you can still go in that direction.
Another thought — if you had the opportunity to draft Landon Dickerson and wanted to give him the chance to get fully healthy, this also allows you to do that.
I don’t think either of the moves for Pocic or Gabe Jackson prevent the Seahawks from taking an O-liner early.
By spending over $15m on two players — Gerald Everett and Gabe Jackson — the Seahawks used any remaining cap space.
Combined with Poona Ford’s extension and the addition of Ahkello Witherspoon, they’re now in the red. They’ll need to create cap space.
So why stop there?
Neither the Everett or Jackson move was calculated, value shopping in the market. These were two aggressive additions.
$6m on a tight end with a stat-line of 417 yards and one touchdown in 2019 — playing in the offense you want to lend from going forward — is a big investment.
Using one of only four remaining draft picks on an ageing guard with a contract worth $9.35m is no small thing either.
In isolation it’s easy to pick holes. Everett’s lack of production and Jackson’s age and declining performance (63.7 PFF grade in 2020 — the 40th best guard in the league) are at least worthy of consideration and discussion.
But if they are part of a more aggressive free agency approach this off-season, then it’s harder to criticise a team shooting its shot.
It basically comes down to this. If these two moves are Seattle’s only real powerplay in the veteran market — we’ll compare the $15m investment to other signings made by other teams.
It’ll be no different than looking at the +$10m spent on Greg Olsen and Jacob Hollister a year ago, or the +$9m they spent on Brandon Shell, Cedric Ogbuehi and B.J. Finney, when Jack Conklin was available for $8m in year one of a multi-season contract.
Yet if the Seahawks just want to go for it — at least then you can’t accuse them of not giving themselves a chance.
That was part of the issue last year. They had so much cap space and sat idly by while the top players left the board. We could all see they hadn’t come close to fixing the pass rush or setting themselves up for the draft.
By the time training camp arrived they still hadn’t addressed key needs — leading to the overly-expensive Jamal Adams trade and starting the season with one of the worst defensive units in the NFL.
It can be different this year. They’re already over the cap, so why stop there?
It is perfectly plausible to create cap space without screwing yourself down the line. If there’s a trade that enables you to recoup draft stock and gain salary relief, do it.
And then get stuck into the remaining options on the market.
This is the time period in 2011 and 2013 when the Seahawks went to work — landing the likes of Zach Miller, Sidney Rice, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.
This team has been desperate for impact signings like that for a long time, with the draft providing minimal results over the last few years.
Kenny Golladay appears destined to join either the Giants or the Browns. Yet Will Fuller, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Sammy Watkins are still available.
Wouldn’t it be something to see one of those three admirably filling the WR3 position in Seattle, creating a dynamic receiving trio Russell Wilson couldn’t help but admire?
In the case of Fuller and Smith-Schuster, you could even structure a smaller year-one cap hit. Or lean on Wilson to convince them to sign a prove-it deal. Come and play with one of the best in the game.
If you’re going to be so aggressive to make the Adams trade last August, why not consider something like this for your offense?
D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Fuller or Smith-Schuster and Gerald Everett would be a potent attack. The rest of the NFC would be put on notice.
Then go and land a running back with the potential to lead your ground game. Seal the deal with Leonard Fournette and bank on him finding inspiration to turn all of his LSU promise into a proper pro-career. You pulled it off with Marshawn Lynch, can lightning strike twice?
Pair him with Mike Davis and have a proper one-two punch in 2021.
Then, perhaps most importantly, go and sort out your pass rush once and for all. Bring Carlos Dunlap home and pair him with another option. If it’s Benson Mayowa, so be it. It’s at least worth considering a Jadeveon Clowney return or the addition of Ryan Kerrigan or Kerry Hyder.
Why not make the pass rush rich in depth and a strength of the team?
Let’s keep this going. Can you bring Richard Sherman home, making cornerback a strength too? And after all this — why wouldn’t K.J. Wright fancy another run back as you create an exciting roster.
How realistic is it? Well here’s the thing. We’ve just seen the LA Rams pay Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. They gave Jared Goff a huge contract, then paid him to go away. Ditto Todd Gurley. They paid their top two receivers and tight end. They then acquired Matthew Stafford’s contract.
They put themselves in cap hell — and still found a way to retain Leonard Floyd on a huge deal. How did they do it? By structuring his contract to only pay him $5.5m this year and backload the contract.
It’s not just the Rams. The Chiefs are paying Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Frank Clark, Tyrann Mathieu and Chris Jones. They still splashed out for Joe Thuney and were in the hunt for Trent Williams.
In 2013 nobody thought it was possible to add Bennett and Avril after trading for (and paying) Percy Harvin. They pulled it off.
With minimal cap picks the Seahawks only really have free agency to put themselves in a far better position to compete in 2021. They have $58m of flexible non-guaranteed salary on the roster.
It’s time to be bold, creative and aggressive.
It’s time to load up the roster and become a contender.
That way — the $15m splurge yesterday looks less like an act of mild desperation and more like one small piece of a puzzle to get back to the top.
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There was plenty of talk about the Seahawks being in the tight end market and so it proved.
Gerald Everett has a history with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. However, as a former second round pick he didn’t really deliver for the Rams. He never had more than the 417 yards he recorded in 2020 and he’s never had more than three touchdowns in a season. Last year, he scored once in 16 games.
Here’s his stat line:
2017 — 244 yards, two touchdowns
2018 — 320 yards, three touchdowns
2019 — 408 yards, two touchdowns
2020 — 417 yards, one touchdown
A $6m contract is quite the commitment for that level of production.
It’s similar to the investment Seattle made in Greg Olsen a year ago. They received very little bang for their buck — they’ll need to do much more to justify this signing.
The hope will be that Waldron’s experience with Everett will help. Yet, as noted, it never really happened for him in LA.
The Seahawks have a long history of splurging on tight ends under Pete Carroll. They spent big money on Zach Miller in 2011, a signing that worked out. After that — the investment in Jimmy Graham, Ed Dickson and Olsen hasn’t produced results.
It’s not a cheap contract for Everett. Along with the signing of Ahkello Witherspoon and the extension for Poona Ford — they’ve now pretty much spent all of their available cap space.
There aren’t a ton of options in the draft but there are prospects who fit Seattle’s penchant for strong agility testing. Brevin Jordan ran a 4.21 short shuttle at 250lbs at SPARQ. Tommy Tremble — a fearsome run blocker — ran a 4.20. Pat Freiermuth (4.44) and Tre McKitty (4.13) also excelled and have plenty to offer.
All four, if drafted outside of the first round, would’ve cost no more than $1.5m this year. That’s the salary of the #33 overall pick. If they were drafted in the same range as Damien Lewis, they’d be on $800,000.
That level of salary is a little easier to stomach if you continue to struggle to find ways to feature your tight ends in the passing game.
This is the problem with taking yourself out of the draft. So far, the Seahawks remain with only one pick in the first three rounds (#56). It’s hard to imagine that’ll stay the same — especially in a year when cheap talent is so important.
The assumption is that the Seahawks have been biding their time in free agency, seeking value. In reality, $6m for one year of Gerald Everett doesn’t seem to be that cheap at all.
They’ll hope he can become a legit #3 target and provide quickness and mismatch ability. Watching his mic’d up videos — he also seems committed, passionate and a leader.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens to the receiver market. Were the Seahawks better off paying Everett $6m for one year — or would they be better going after the likes of Kenny Golladay, Will Fuller or JuJu Smith-Schuster on a longer term basis with a low year-one cap hit?
Curtis Samuel has just agreed a three-year, $34.5m contract in Washington. That might suggest it’ll be a little too rich still.
But the Seahawks don’t have a great track record with tight ends and they’ve made quite a big commitment to Everett.
Deal #2 — Gabe Jackson
And another offensive line trade for Las Vegas: Raiders are trading Gabe Jackson to the Seattle Seahawks for a 2021 draft pick, per @JFowlerESPN and me.
The deal is for Seattle’s fifth rounder. The Seahawks only had four picks in the 2021 draft. That’s now down to three.
I think Gabe Jackson’s reputation is better than his recent performance level. He’s seemingly been on the brink with the Raiders for a while and it was announced on March 3rd that he was going to be released.
However, a market seemed to emerge and now Las Vegas — as they did with Rodney Hudson — have been able to trade him instead.
PFF graded Jackson at 63.7 in 2020 — the 40th best guard in the league. The year before he was given a 61.8 grade.
My fear, expressed prior to this signing, is that he’s well past his best. Formerly one of the best guards in the league — I’m not sure he’s anywhere close to that level as he approaches 30.
He’s also very expensive. His base salary is $9.35m this year — about the same as Jamal Adams. Frankly — he’s already ripe to be a cap cut down the line if the competition is close.
For that reason I think using #56 on a guard remains realistic. Especially given the quality on the interior line expected to be available in that range.
Spending over $15m on Everett and Jackson is quite the commitment. Is it the best use of resources? That question needs to be asked — while acknowledging they have at least addressed two needs.
With only three draft picks — a trade of some description seems almost inevitable at this point. Fans on twitter are clamouring for Jarran Reed — but what exactly are you fielding on the D-line if you do that? And how much are you getting in return for a defensive tackle who turns 29 this year?
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Before we get into the piece, on Tuesday I appeared on 950 KJR to talk to Softy & Dick about the Seahawks. You can listen to the full interview here:
Quite aside from the unresolved situation with their franchise quarterback (which many people will gloss over now — and that would be a mistake) — there’s another issue that lingers for the Seahawks.
There’s nothing wrong with being penny-wise in the early stages of free agency. It’s often where good or average players are paid elite money.
But eventually there comes a time when you’ve got to do more than dip your toe in.
Last year was a classic example. As Seattle waited and waited for Jadeveon Clowney, other opportunities slipped by.
It’s not just a 2020 problem. The free agent additions Seattle have made in recent years have generally been quite poor.
Rather than acquire talent at good value, more often than not they’ve added average, replacement level players.
We’re already approaching the second wave of free agency and a host of names remain available. This should be the time when you capitalise.
The Seahawks aren’t the only ones shopping, of course. But with only four draft picks — including just one in the top-120 — this is really their only chance to get better.
Look at Tampa Bay last season and consider their defensive line — anchored by Ndamukong Suh and Vita Vea, with Shaquil Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul rushing the edge. Three of those players were free agent signings.
With the likes of Carlos Dunlap, Haason Reddick, Sheldon Rankins, Jadeveon Clowney, Ryan Kerrigan and others still available, the Seahawks could put together a competitive D-line.
The alternative is another year of what we saw at the start of the last season. You bring in a Benson Mayowa type, give him far too many snaps, rely on Rasheem Green and L.J. Collier and pray something emerges before the trade deadline.
They surely can’t do that again?
And wouldn’t it be nice to have a proper rotation up front?
Sticking with the Buccs — look at the weapons they had for their quarterback too.
The options available on the market are pretty remarkable still. Kenny Golladay, Curtis Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Will Fuller, Sammy Watkins, Gerald Everett, AJ Green, Antonio Brown.
Will there be a better chance to add a proven #3 target? Potentially at a good age?
At running back there’s currently just a great big mystery. Signing Leonard Fournette, which appears possible, or bringing back Chris Carson would add a name and a body. Yet the depth and talent at the position still remains lacking. The hope should be to add at least two players here.
The Seahawks, with the way they play, need a bell-cow. It’s not clear how they achieve that this year. The only other alternative is to have a great rotation. Mike Davis and others could help provide that on top of, say, a Fournette addition.
They’re yet to make any significant signings to the O-line — with the likes of Rodney Hudson, David Andrews and Nick Martin available at center.
They’ve signed Ahkello Witherspoon and the value/fit makes sense. Yet it’s impossible to look at Seattle’s cornerback position and have any real faith that it’s sorted. It feels like they need more — competition and talent. Richard Sherman is still available, as is Kevin King.
I could keep going. They have the second fewest contracted players in the NFL currently, so depth is an issue too. Other players — such as KJ Wright — will need to be re-signed or replaced.
In a way the Russell Wilson saga has acted as quite a distraction to an equally important topic.
How do the Seahawks actually build a team in 2021?
A year ago at this point they still had millions to spend and a collection of draft picks, including three in the first two rounds.
Now they have #56 and a whole lot of nothing. Their available cap space has halved just by signing Witherspoon and extending Poona Ford. Unlike in previous drafts when they’ve had no picks — there’s no real means to trade down because they don’t have a first rounder to bargain with.
They’ve not done anything to create cap space yet.
They’ve taken a decision not to trade Russell Wilson, according to reports, yet they aren’t restructuring his deal (which they can do without his permission) which kind of suggests they’re leaving the door open.
But even if their intention is to proceed with Wilson for now (and who knows, really, given Tony Pauline reported just last week that they’re as ready to move on as he is?) — they haven’t re-worked any other deals or traded anyone to provide cap relief or extra picks.
So it does feel like a big few days for the Seahawks. Firstly, they need to create some stock. I don’t know how — but they need to. Whether it’s picks or salary cap relief. Unless the plan is to start Phil Haynes at left guard, Kyle Fuller at center, Rashaad Penny at running back, Colby Parkinson at tight end and Freddie Swain at receiver. And maybe that is there plan? I would argue, however, that would make for a completely pointless and futile 2021 season.
They need more to work with. They have done for weeks.
So can they acquire some stock, then rekindle the 2013 magic and come up with some eye-catching additions to bolster their roster?
Or will the penny-wise approach develop into a pound-foolish one again if they end up trying to fill out the roster with duds? Without even a draft to look forward to where you can add cheap, young talent.
Can they avoid doing what they’ve done for the last couple of years — failing to address key needs going into training camp, then needing to scramble around for solutions at the last minute?
In the last four years they’ve used two firsts, three seconds and three third round picks on deals either just before or just after the season started. That’s insane.
The problem is, this is a franchise that feels like its lost its mojo when it comes to player acquisition. Every year they have an opportunity to get it back — and they never seem to.
And the rest of the NFC West remains highly active. The 49ers have just retained Trent Williams and signed Alex Mack to bolster their O-line. The Cardinals have signed JJ Watt and the Rams continue to be creative with the cap, retaining Leonard Floyd.
What is Seattle’s blueprint for progress?
Meanwhile, Ian Rapoport says the Seahawks only decided not to trade Wilson to the Bears yesterday — and that it was Pete Carroll’s call not to pull the trigger.
It does sound awfully like the franchise has made another decision somewhat based on the emotion of the day from their all-seeing decision-maker.
It’s another hint that the dysfunction will continue and drag on for some time, following Adam Schefter’s suggestion that the Seahawks simply weren’t in a position to make a trade yet and that nothing had been ruled out:
“To date they’ve not said, ‘we’re not trading Russell Wilson’ publicly”
He also provided this update this morning, flat out suggesting Wilson could still be dealt before the draft:
“I don’t think it’s over but I think they want more time to think this through.”
“If they don’t figure it out now, there’s going to be a trade partner here pretty soon.”
Mark Rodgers’ next move will be interesting.
Last week we argued that this was a situation that had to be resolved, one way or another. Either with a truce or a trade.
Letting things fester and linger was not the answer — and yet it appears to be the chosen path for Carroll.
Finally, today is the Georgia pro-day. Azeez Olujari will be among those working out.
In anticipation of the Seahawks potentially acquiring the #20 pick, I went back and re-watched all of the top pass rushers in this class. Off the back of that, I’ve moved Olujari to a legit first round grade on my horizontal board.
He’s a terrific player and for me, could easily find a home in the top-15.
Olujari measured today with 34.5 inch arms — ideal length and he’s destined to be a high pick.
Ben Cleveland ran an unofficial 4.85 forty. Obviously this is a ‘pro-day’ 40 but it validates the expectation that he could’ve run sub-5.00. I’ve always maintained he’s a far better athlete than some in the media are suggesting. The strongest player in the draft. He’s a definite name to keep an eye on, as early as #56.
Tight end Tre McKitty and cornerback Eric Stokes are two others. Stokes measured with nearly 33 inch arms — that is fantastic length and he has a shot at the first round.
There are so many good options in this class at defensive end, receiver, offensive line and cornerback. There are some tight ends worth pursuing — and at least one running back who fits like a glove.
We don’t need the underwear Olympics to appreciate this. The Seahawks need a way back into this draft.
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Chicago made “a very aggressive pursuit” of Seahawks QB Russell Wilson, per sources, and the Bears were told that Seattle is not trading him at this time.
The Bears were one of four teams Wilson’s agent named as a place of interest. Now Chicago has an agreement with Andy Dalton.
There’s been no resolution between the Seahawks and their franchise quarterback. We’d know about it by now if there was.
There would’ve been some form of statement or symbolic gesture. From something minor like a tweet from Russell Wilson, to something more significant like a new contract.
The middle ground would’ve been the Seahawks restructuring Wilson’s contract to create cap space. They have a function to do that, even without his permission.
Yet they haven’t. And they’ll need to do something eventually. Once Poona Ford is tendered, they will have just $14m to spend and four draft picks. They have seven key players to retain or replace. They also have the second fewest contracted players in the NFL currently — so depth is an issue too.
Something has to give.
It’s just unclear what exactly it’s going to be.
Wilson’s next move will be interesting.
So far, the Seahawks haven’t granted his wish to make a bold move on the offensive line. Rodney Hudson, recently cut by the Raiders, would be an opportunity to do that (although we have to remember he turns 32 in July).
Yet they didn’t land Joe Thuney, Corey Linsley or Kevin Zeitler. The remaining options are very much in the ‘name recognition’ category but the likes of Trai Turner and Gabe Jackson are well past their best.
Will Mark Rodgers re-emerge? Will Wilson extend his list of potential suitors and be willing to consider other teams?
Will the Seahawks and their star player use this moment to create a truce? If so — it better be a long term one, not a ‘see you in 12 months for more of the same’ arrangement.
I still think the best thing to do would be to create resource by shifting stock from linebacker and safety to create picks and cap space. From there, you could improve your O-line in the draft and take a punt on a receiver market that increasingly appears to be carrying some value.
Then you grant Wilson’s desire to have more input in the offensive vision. After all, if you’re willing to shift to bear fronts on defense and double your blitzing to accommodate Jamal Adams, why aren’t you willing to listen to a quarterback you opted to pay $35m a year?
However, what I fear is this is merely a delaying tactic.
For example — there’s been plenty of talk about Sam Darnold recently. Brad Biggs from the Chicago Tribune quoted a GM as saying the Seahawks were a team to watch with Darnold. Colin Cowherd also made the connection, as did a report in the New York Daily News — citing a league source.
The Jets insist they won’t make a call on Darnold’s future until they’ve seen the top quarterbacks in the draft throw live. Zach Wilson’s pro-day, for example, isn’t until the end of the month.
It’s also possible the Jets are simply not inclined to deal Darnold at this stage. What’s the rush? Especially if a vibrant market emerges with a little patience.
If that’s the case, this might be a situation that isn’t resolved for weeks.
After all, look at Schefter’s wording:
“the Bears were told that Seattle is not trading him at this time“
The Bears weren’t told they aren’t trading Wilson, period. They were told they aren’t trading him at this time.
“That doesn’t mean eventually… next month, next year, whenever it may be, that Seattle won’t eventually trade Russell Wilson but the Bears were finding the Seahawks were unwilling to budge right now”
He then added the Seahawks haven’t been able to do sufficient work on the 2021 quarterback class, before adding:
“To date, they’ve not said, we’re not trading Russell Wilson publicly — but they essentially rejected the Bears advances, with the Bears holding the 20th pick in the draft”
Sadly, this saga appears set to drag on for a while yet.
If, as seems likely, Wilson stays, that won’t automatically solve the issues between player and team. Wilson wants the offense to run through him. Unless the Seahawks decide to give Wilson what he wants, it could be a potentially awkward and dysfunctional season for Seattle.
If the intention is to move forward together — then three things need to happen:
1. Make it right with Wilson and then make it public that you’ve made it right
2. Nail the rest of free agency (there are lots of pass rushers and receivers available, channel some of the 2013 magic to land some needed quality)
3. Get back in the draft — because combine or no combine, there are some great options in this class to get cheap talent (this means trading an asset)
Meanwhile, the Seahawks made their first move in free agency — agreeing to sign 49ers cornerback Ahkello Witherspoon.
Like Shaquill Griffin, he was a third round pick in 2017. He fits the Seahawks prototype perfectly. He turns 26 next week and had an 80.2 PFF grade last year — their sixth ranked cornerback.
Of course, Quinton Dunbar was PFF’s second ranked corner a year ago…
It’s not about missing out on Joe Thuney and Corey Linsley.
It’s not about a quiet first day of free agency.
The problem with the Seahawks is a lot more serious than that.
What exactly is the plan here?
For the last six weeks we’ve had rumours galore about the future of Russell Wilson, including a passive-aggressive trade request sent to Adam Schefter.
The Seahawks haven’t done anything to nip this in the bud.
There’s been radio silence.
Which is fine, provided a solution is actually forthcoming. If you just let the situation fester, without any kind of resolution, you appear dysfunctional.
By now the Seahawks should’ve done one of two things. They should’ve sat down with their quarterback and sorted through their differences. And if no resolution was forthcoming, they should’ve moved on.
Instead they appear to be stuck in no-man’s land. Unwilling to listen to Wilson’s concerns and act upon them, while simultaneously not ripping off the band-aid and going in a direction that according to Tony Pauline, both parties are destined.
Meanwhile fans are just left in the dark.
Let’s be real here. When Wilson complained about a lack of adequate protection, it wasn’t a nudge to go out and land one of Gabe Jackson or Trai Turner.
He wanted a big addition. He wanted the Seahawks to show the kind of ambition they offered the strong safety position last summer.
He wanted one of Thuney or Linsley.
Instead the Chiefs, who started the day with less cap space than the Seahawks, make the bold investment to protect their franchise quarterback.
It’s not just the indecision and mystery surrounding Wilson’s future though, or the inability to land a top offensive lineman to placate him.
The only move the Seahawks have made so far is to cut their best pass rusher to create cap space. They have about $16-17m to spend.
Carlos Dunlap joins the long list of players needing to be re-signed or replaced.
Yet with so many needs and hardly any draft picks — what exactly is the plan here?
Are they going to fill a bunch of holes with $2-3m signings?
How exactly do they take a step forward doing that?
Despite their 12-4 record in 2020, they weren’t a serious contender. We saw that in the playoffs. They spent half a season trying to fix a terrible defense. Then in the second half, they had a stagnant offense and didn’t do anything to address any of the issues — such as major problems on third down or an inability to adjust.
Losing a bunch of starters and replacing them on the cheap isn’t exactly a path to success is it?
And people wonder why Wilson possibly wants out.
No restructures to free up room. No extensions. No trades — either to create cap space or get back in the draft.
What exactly is the plan?
You pay a quarterback $35m a year but seemingly don’t want his advice on how the offense should operate, leading to an off-season of drama.
You prefer a brand of football that requires a certain level of play in the trenches. Yet you focus your investment in other areas, such as linebacker and safety.
You’re very conservative when it comes to free agent spending, yet you’ll happily splurge draft pick after draft pick on a series of trades.
You don’t have any picks this year yet you haven’t created the money to be big players in free agency — despite having a laundry list of needs.
What’s going on?
There’s still time to make it right. Perhaps not in the eyes of Wilson, who will be glancing enviously today at Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Yet this is a very different free agency period. Value will be available at other positions as time progresses. The Seahawks need to rediscover their Midas touch from 2013 in order to capitalise.
Some answers need to be provided soon, though. On Wilson, on the state of the roster, on the lack of cap space and picks.
And frankly, it’s about time the franchise gave the fans some hope and clarity — after the mentally draining last few weeks of the Wilson saga.
The legal tampering period begins on Monday at 9am PST.
We’ll be across any big breaking news regarding the Seahawks, via articles and live streams. I’ll update this post when anything happens.
In the meantime here’s an open thread and a breakdown of the latest:
— Mike Garafolo says the Seahawks were interested in Kevin Zeitler, before he agreed terms on a three-year deal worth $22m with the Baltimore Ravens. Assuming the Seahawks aren’t in the Joe Thuney/Corey Linsley market, Zeitler was seen as a viable (and cheaper) alternative.
Brad Biggs from the Chicago Tribune has spoken to two NFL GM’s about Russell Wilson’s future. One didn’t think a trade would happen, citing the usual reasons (lack of draft stock from the Bears etc). The other thought a trade was possible with Chicago (“They’re desperate, and if I’m Seattle, I just keeping asking for more and more and more”). That same GM then connected the Seahawks to Sam Darnold, as Colin Cowherd did on Friday. What would the price be? A high second round pick apparently, or the equivalent value. For any Wilson trade to occur, you’d have to think Darnold would either be part of the deal or a Seahawks trade with the Jets would have to be arranged first. They cannot afford to get into a negotiating battle with other teams for a replacement quarterback.
Corey Linsley is signing with the Chargers and Joe Thuney is joining the Chiefs. If you were hoping the Seahawks would make a splash to placate their disillusioned franchise quarterback, you’ll be disappointed. Still, I’m sure Russell Wilson be taking this news well.
Carlos Hyde and Phillip Dorsett have both signed with the Jaguars
I will be hosting a live stream with Robbie Williams at 1pm PST. Log onto the blog or YouTube to watch along.
The Seahawks need an injection of quality.
It doesn’t matter if their preferred method is to go bargain shopping in free agency. It hasn’t worked.
They have one playoff win in four years — against an Eagles team who won the NFC East by default and had Josh McCown at quarterback.
A number of disappointing draft classes should be forcing Seattle’s hand. Whether Russell Wilson stays or not — they need more talent.
The cheap and cheerful approach produced the following results a year ago:
— Spending $4.2m on Branden Jackson and Joey Hunt, squandering money that could’ve been used elsewhere in the first few weeks of the new league year
— Spending $9.2m on B.J. Finney, Cedric Ogbuehi and Brandon Shell. Meanwhile, all-pro right tackle Jack Conklin cost the Cleveland Browns $8m in 2020
— Using $13m on ageing players Greg Olsen and Bruce Irvin. Both missed most of the season through injury
— $12.1m was spent on Benson Mayowa, Jacob Hollister, Quinton Dunbar and Mike Iupati
The Seahawks ended up blowing about $50m and didn’t add a single difference maker.
This kind of depth filling is fine if you have a loaded roster and continue to draft well. When you’re not doing either of those things, wasting money on backups and fringe starters isn’t a pathway to success.
The Seahawks will likely try to capitalise on a unique market and let things come to them again this year. It’s a perfectly plausible plan given the economic circumstances. It might work.
But when’s the last time the market did come to the Seahawks?
When was their last great recruiting job? 2013?
Will they just continue to overplay their hand, missing out on the best options?
Will they end up going into training camp and the regular season with huge needs again? Banking on last minute trades or dragging guys off the couch?
It’s time for a more pro-active approach. Despite a 12-4 record last season, the Seahawks weren’t close. The playoff defeat to the Rams brutally exposed their flaws.
They only have a few draft picks, including one in the first three rounds. That’ll change if they trade Russell Wilson — but that in itself will only increase pressure on the Seahawks to improve the overall quality of their roster.
They don’t have any long term answers at left tackle, cornerback or defensive end. They have a highly dissatisfied franchise quarterback.
Their main investment has gone into the safety and linebacker positions.
None of this is good.
You’re not going to find 8-10 year solutions at the key positions on the open market but at least you can try and add some real quality.
They need to be creative, somewhat aggressive and mix calculated moves to take advantage of the market with at least a couple of pro-active splashes.
They did it in 2011 — adding Sidney Rice and Zach Miller. It’s time to do it again.
Can they legitimately go after the best names available? Perhaps not. They haven’t made the moves necessary to shift resource from linebacker and safety to the trenches — so I’m not anticipating anything big.
If you looked at my off-season plan, you’d know that’s exactly what I would be doing. So far though, their only move has been to cut the best pass rusher on the roster to save money.
They’re not back in the draft and at the moment will pick just once in the top-130. How do they improve with one high-ish pick and bargain shopping in free agency?
They have to do more. Frankly, it’s absurd to trade as much as they did for Jamal Adams (the ultimate aggressive move) only to stick so steadfastly to an approach in free agency that has simply delivered below average players.
Admittedly it could be difficult to sell a top free agent on joining the Seahawks with Wilson’s future up in the air. This feels like a dysfunctional franchise at the moment and with nobody addressing a story that has dominated the NFL’s news agenda for five weeks, short of a resolution in the next 24 hours they will not be putting their best foot forward to prospective signings.
Fans deserve some hope too. The silence over the Wilson issue might be the best plan if you’re trying to win a PR battle with your franchise quarterback. Yet the mystery surrounding this situation has just left fans in the dark — wondering what’s really going on.
Equally fans see a roster littered with gaps, limited cap space, not much to look forward to in the draft and a playoff shellacking to a division rival still lingers.
Clarity is needed for this team. Where are they heading? How are they going to get there? Some answers need to emerge in the coming days.
Here are some of the names I would target. I’m not suggesting they land all of the names below. I know that’s not possible. Two or three would at least show some initiative:
Corey Linsley (C, Green Bay)
I don’t care how likely it is. This is the type of move they should be making. You’ve got to block Aaron Donald at least twice a season. You’ve had a revolving door at the position for years. Linsley had a PFF grade of 89.9 in 2020. It’s time to actually make the line of scrimmage a big priority. O-line and pass rush. This should start with a big splash and be followed up with a high draft pick at left guard. Alternatively go and get Joe Thuney and draft a center. They should also create the resource to upgrade the D-line. There’s no point doing the same thing that hasn’t worked for the last few years. Time to make the trenches a focal point.
Add proper pass rushers
Rasheem Green and LJ Collier aren’t good enough. Seattle’s pass rush was abysmal last season prior to Carlos Dunlap’s arrival. The Seahawks have done an appalling job with their pass rush over the years and that needs to be sorted pronto. The Super Bowl should’ve been a wake-up call with the way Tampa Bay played. The Seahawks need to sign two players. Getting Dunlap back would be a start but if not — they need to do what they should’ve done last year. Add quality. There are plenty of names out there — Dupree, Lawson, Hendrickson, Clowney, Dunlap, Judon, Ngakoue, Okwara, Floyd, Smith. Fix it, for goodness sake. Add two and pair them with an expanded role for Alton Robinson. Alternatively, if they do end up back in the draft — there are plenty of athletic edge rushers available in this class that would appeal to the Seahawks, as you can see in my horizontal board:
Haason Reddick (LB, Arizona)
I’ve long been a fan of Reddick’s and the chance to weaken a rival and improve your own roster is appealing. He’s only 26 and just had a 12.5 sack season for the Cardinals. He has the length (33 inch arms), quickness (1.59 split) and explosive traits (36.5 inch vertical, 11-1 broad) that Seattle loves. He’d be a real asset as a SAM linebacker who can move up to the LOS for passing downs. If they plan on running more bear fronts moving forward, he provides flexibility there. Reddick improves your speed, pass rush and physicality.
Aaron Jones (RB, Green Bay)
I know — don’t pay running backs. Here’s the thing — I don’t think anyone is going to pay them. I suspect there’s a chance the ones in this market might be left looking at short-term contracts similar to Melvin Gordon’s two-year deal worth $8m a season. The Seahawks don’t have much in the way of draft picks and it’s not a great class for runners. Javonte Williams will be off the board by the time they pick in round two and if they get Chicago’s #20 — do you really want to use that on him? Jones is one of the best players on the market and the Seahawks need some reliable quality at the position. A short-term commitment wouldn’t be the end of the world financially.
Any legit #3 weapon
Regardless of who is playing quarterback, any modern NFL team needs an arsenal of weapons. Two isn’t enough. You need three or four these days. So whether they invest in a dynamic tight end such as Jonnu Smith or Gerald Everett, a dynamic outside receiver such as Kenny Golladay or Will Fuller or a potential X-factor such as Curtis Samuel — the Seahawks need to add someone. Then they need to get back in the draft and add another — with appealing options at both TE and WR in this class.
Richard Sherman (CB, San Francisco)
Despite a lot of talk about wanting to be the bully, the Seahawks are not a physical football team. They don’t have an edge. Nobody fears playing them. Teams like the Giants march into Seattle and kick their arse. Signing Sherman alone won’t change that but it’s a start. They need some attitude and intensity.
Meanwhile, there’s a little update on Wilson today. Ian Rapoport says interested parties are expecting to discover ‘in a day or so’ whether the Seahawks will trade him. Mike Florio says the issues between team and player have not been resolved.
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Colin Cowherd linked the Seahawks to Sam Darnold on Friday
Where we stand on the Russell Wilson trade saga
Reading the tea leaves this week — and the point blank reporting from the likes of the brilliant Tony Pauline — this is my hunch on what’s going on…
I think the Seahawks know what’s on the table from the Bears. I think the last few days have been about exhausting all options and doing due diligence.
For example, Mike Silver proposed the possibility of a team like Carolina getting involved (or at least emphasised Seattle’s hope that it could happen).
It makes sense to see if you can get a better offer and open up the process beyond Wilson’s identified suitors. It doesn’t seem like it worked but it was worth a try.
More recently the talk has flipped to the need for the Seahawks to have a progression plan at quarterback. Silver, Dianna Russini and Colin Cowherd have all talked about this in the last few days.
Again, I think the Seahawks know what’s on the table from the Bears. I wouldn’t be surprised if their offer is at least somewhat appealing. They are desperate and are reportedly prepared to create a deal ‘the Seahawks can’t refuse’.
My hunch is Seattle doesn’t want to initiate an aggressive quarterback pursuit immediately after trading Wilson.
I don’t think they want to start a rookie in 2021 and go through the growing pains. The plan, if they deal Wilson, will be to try and compete immediately (realistic or not).
Cowherd pitched Sam Darnold as a target. I think that makes some sense, whatever your opinion of Darnold is. I’ll come on to my view on him later.
He’s 23-years-old. He’ll still be on his rookie contract for one more year and you’d have the flexibility of the fifth year option.
What you don’t want to do, however, is get into a trade battle for him.
Imagine you do the deal with the Bears and obtain their first (#20) and second (#52) round picks this year as part of the package.
Many people are suggesting the San Francisco 49ers are preparing to make an offer for Darnold. They own the #43 pick.
How do you outbid them? Do you end up trading away a big chunk of the stock you’ve just acquired?
I think the Seahawks are hoping the Bears will find a solution for them.
Can they get the Jets involved in a three-team deal?
That way the Seahawks get their quarterback solution, they don’t need to trade away their newly acquired stock and they don’t need to start competing with other teams for their preferred QB replacement.
I’m not sure how the Bears would pull this off.
But here’s the thing — they’re desperate.
Chicago fans have been whipped into a frenzy over this Wilson situation. Ryan Pace is already on borrowed time. Picking Mitchell Trubiksy over Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson was bad enough. Flirting with a deal for Wilson and allowing fans to get their hopes up — only to miss out — would make things even worse. Especially when they have very little chance of convincing the Texans to trade Watson with the likes of Miami and Carolina better placed to make a deal.
The leverage the Seahawks have comes in the form of one powerful sentence:
‘Do you want a franchise quarterback or not?’
If the Bears want Wilson and they are truly prepared to do what it takes, they might have to find a way to get the Jets involved.
Seattle will want to use any trade compensation to build, not replace.
Why this needs to be sorted this weekend
The issue discussed above might be the sticking point currently. Yet all parties need a resolution as soon as possible.
The Seahawks, Bears or any other trade partner need to be able to start free agency with complete clarity.
For Seattle, if they trade Wilson they need to be able to use their new-found cap freedom to build up the roster. For a potential buyer, they’ll want to build around their new quarterback.
This isn’t something you can get around to half way through free agency or just before the draft. It needs sorting this weekend before the legal tampering period opens on Monday (launching the start of free agency).
If the Seahawks are going to do this, they need to be able to make some moves. As we’ve highlighted already in recent weeks, they have options.
The salary cap is a movable feast and there’s so much hidden flexibility.
The dead cap money has never been the issue many in the media have made it out to be. As Cowherd noted on Friday:
“Seattle’s not too caught up, I’m told, on the dead money stuff. They don’t care about that for a year. They don’t.”
Here’s a quick reminder on why it’s not a problem…
At the moment the Seahawks have about $17m in cap space.
If you trade Wilson that will go down to $10m (which would still be more than 12 teams in the league).
By dealing him now, you create $37m in cap space for 2022 because Wilson’s contract comes off the books. That would leave you with about $178m to spend next year which, at the moment, would be the most in the league by far.
As Curtis Allen highlighted recently, if you look at the existing contracts on the roster there’s over $58m in movable cap space. This is non-guaranteed money that you can play around with. Many teams are doing that at the moment.
It’s actually fairly straight forward to create tens of millions of dollars of cap space for this year.
So let’s say they borrow a somewhat conservative $20-30m from the 2022 cap. You would have around $30-40m to spend this year and $138-148m to spend next year. That’s an incredible situation to be in.
It’s better to be in the thick of the action on Monday, showing the fan base you mean business despite trading Wilson, than it is to be dragging this out and missing out on some possible new additions.
Of course, they shouldn’t be rushed into a bad deal. But this is why they need to exert pressure on the Bears. If you want Wilson, you need to come up with a specific arrangement by Sunday.
Then the Seahawks can do what they did in 2011 — enter the free agent market early and make some key signings to improve their roster.
Mike Silver suggested that a resolution should come by next week. I think the recent talk of quarterback replacements and possible new suitors is an indication that things are moving very quickly.
Clarity is needed soon, one way or another.
Is there any way to make this right with Wilson?
It does feel like we’re beyond that now. When Tony Pauline is reporting the Seahawks want to move on as much as Wilson, the writing feels like it’s on the wall.
It’s simply not realistic to ‘crack on’. You can’t go into the season with Wilson’s future being a weekly talking point. It would divide the locker room, destroy the culture, dominate the agenda and be a huge distraction.
Neither can you park this for 12 months only to go through the same song and dance again next year.
I see only one way to sort this out. It would mean Carroll ceding to Wilson’s wants and desires and then you’d probably have to extend his contract as a statement of commitment.
That would be the only way to send a message that Wilson and the Seahawks are staying together for the long haul.
The deal would likely have to match Dak Prescott’s contract or Patrick Mahomes’.
Personally, I don’t think it’s very likely. But I think that’s the only way they continue this relationship. If they try and co-exist with this situation mostly unresolved and with Mark Rodgers constantly in the ear of his media buddies, this will be a wasted season.
Notes on Sam Darnold
Last night I watched Darnold’s all-22 tape versus Seattle and LA. I also watched TV copy from four 2019 games.
I have no idea what the Jets were thinking last year.
Robbie Anderson was so critical for Darnold in 2019. He was by far his best weapon and a legit downfield X-factor. They let him walk in free agency and only replaced him with the mostly ineffective Breshad Perriman and second round rookie Denzel Mims.
Despite drafting Mekhi Becton, the rest of the offensive line was slapped together.
They had 37-year-old Frank Gore at running back and the defense was awful.
This was a shambolic roster. If I didn’t know any better I’d suggest they were tanking for Trevor Lawrence. It was no fit environment for any quarterback to thrive.
That’s the first thing to note with Darnold. It’s not making excuses to say he has been dealt an atrocious hand. Allowing Anderson to depart for Carolina alone was the pièce de résistance.
Even so, in the two 2020 games I watched I thought he played fairly well. They beat the Rams against the odds and he did a good job getting the ball out quickly, avoiding pressure and managing the game. Against the Seahawks he moved the ball well in the first half in the face of some heavy blitzing. The field goal kicker missing three easy kicks demoralised the team and the second half was a blow out.
Time and time again in the all-22, nothing was easy. The Jets offense was basic and uninventive. They didn’t have the talent to create easy separation or deliver a mismatch.
Darnold still produced some nice throws. There’s one against Seattle where the receiver does gain a nice release and is running across the field. Darnold spots him but still has to throw over traffic into the open area. The touch, accuracy and difficulty of the completion warrants raising.
As he throws, Jarran Reed is right in his face. You can see the open receiver #18 and that he’s slotted in behind the linebackers but in front of the safety:
This second image shows off the accuracy and the placement of the pass. Again, look at Reed’s proximity to the quarterback. Look where the receiver is and look at the defenders Darnold has to throw over to make this completion:
So while the receiver was open quickly in his route — the combination of pressure, the traffic he was throwing into and the need to anticipate the area to throw at, this was an excellent completion showing off Darnold’s capabilities:
Generally he threw with accuracy and timing. I was particularly impressed with his 2019 tape when he had better weapons. His arm strength is good enough to drive into tight windows and get the ball downfield. He doesn’t have the ‘flicked wrist’ velocity the best in the game have and there are times when he ‘effort-ball’ throws to try and create extra force. Even so, there are no obvious physical weaknesses.
He had one dropped pass against LA that was sublime — showing beautiful placement to the near corner of the end zone while throwing on the run. He had to extend the play on the move, keep his eyes downfield under pressure and the placement on the throw is just perfect. He has to torque his body to get this throw off. Both feet are off the ground, he’s twisted in the air and he still gets it forty-yards downfield on a dime.
The receiver just let it go straight through his hands:
If you want to see why the Jets were a mess last year, look at the routes the receivers run on this play. Three receivers are bunched together. They are clearly confused over what they should be doing. Two of them nearly run into each other — leading to Darnold having to scramble to extend the play:
Despite this, I was more impressed than I expected to be in terms of his field vision and knowing where to go with the football. His receivers gave him minimal help yet at times he still threw them open.
He’s only a 4.85 runner so he’s not a game-changer when plays break down. However, he does have some scrambling ability to extend plays and he does a good job keeping his eyes downfield.
Can he do what Shane Waldron wants? Look at this completion, where he leaves the pocket and moves to his right, then throws from an awkward angle to complete a pass to the receiver running across the 35-yard line:
This isn’t easy:
He also had a few ugly moments. This included a terrible throw straight at Jamal Adams who dropped what should’ve been an easy pick-six.
I’ve no idea why he didn’t see Adams lurking in the tall grass. He’s locked on to Braxton Berrios running an in-route and simply doesn’t notice Adams (who is stood on the logo reading Darnold’s eyes):
Adams’ ‘feet for hands’ moment leaves the ball on the turf but it should’ve been punished. It’s a terrible decision by Darnold under no noticeable pressure. It’s the kind of thing a top quarterback simply has to see.
Not only should he detect Adams’ presence — but if he comes off his initial read he’ll see #19 has gained separation from D.J. Reed and with no safety help, a big play opportunity was missed:
This speaks to one of the big issues with Darnold. He has 39 interceptions in three years compared to only 45 touchdowns. He had 22 interceptions in his two years starting at USC. He has been reckless.
It’s not the be-all and end-all. Peyton Manning had an incredible 100 interceptions in his first five years with the Colts. You can fix this, especially on a better team than USC or the Jets.
It is still something that you have to consider if you’re acquiring him. Can you live with the occasional ‘WTF?’ moment?
Alternatively — the Jets finished the 2019 season with a 6-2 record. In that period, Darnold had a 13:4 touchdown/interception ratio. That’s somewhat indicative that if he’s given the right environment he can produce results.
I’m not sure he has the upside or X factor of an elite QB. Can he carry a team on his back? I don’t think we’ve seen evidence of that.
To me he looks very capable of being a decent, solid player. Which is fine. If your expectation at the position is Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson or Russell Wilson — you’ll be disappointed.
Yet having had Wilson for the last nine seasons, Seahawks fans have come to expect a certain level of play. Darnold’s upside is more akin to Matt Stafford than any of the elite names listed above. I do think Stafford has more natural talent though.
We’re only three years removed from Darnold being rated by many as the best quarterback, perhaps even the best player, in the 2018 draft.
The Raiders GM Mike Mayock thought he was the top quarterback. He wasn’t a flawless prospect but it’s easy to forget just how highly regarded he was.
He was considered a franchise saver to some. Nobody challenged the Jets when they took him at #3. Obviously not everyone agreed. Cleveland preferred Baker Mayfield at #1 and the Giants, who needed a franchise quarterback, opted to select Saquon Barkley instead at #2.
Overall I think he’s a worthwhile investment for someone as a reclamation project. Sometimes a change of scenery is just what you need. That was clearly the case with Ryan Tannehill. Provide Darnold with a superior supporting cast and a better culture and there’s no reason why he can’t win you football games.
For Carroll he would be ideal. He’s mobile, throws well on the run, can hit big plays downfield, he won’t speak out, he’s measured and calm.
Would I rather have him or say a rookie with a veteran bridge? I think he gives you a better chance to be competitive in 2021. Yet I think some of the rookies have the potential to be better.
Regulars on the blog will know we’ve been talking about Kellen Mond and Davis Mills for some time. Mond in particular has a lot of ability. The thing is, I’m not convinced he’ll be there at #20 for the Seahawks. In my next mock, I’m going to pair him with the 49ers in round one (if they haven’t made a subsequent move by then).
Yet if you draft Mond you’re probably going to have to start 2021 with the possibility of an Alex Smith type winning the job. I just don’t think that’s the route Carroll will want to go down, compared to adding what he would consider a ready-made starter with long term potential.
Could they draft someone like Mond and still add Darnold? Possibly. I’m not sure that would be conducive to Darnold’s success though at a time when you’d need to be building him up.
Thoughts on Trey Lance’s pro-day
The overwhelming reaction from the workout was positive with media types everywhere heaping praise on Lance.
I watched every throw. I was nowhere near as convinced.
His accuracy was highly inconsistent with too many throws behind the receiver or a fraction high. Remember — he’s throwing against thin air here.
I can’t recall a recent pro-day with so many balls hitting the turf. I saw overthrows and under-throws. He’s toesy with his feet and his technique needs further work to sharpen up his accuracy.
On tape you see some of this show up. North Dakota State does a good job scheming to create wide-open targets. When he has to read plays, go through progressions and throw with anticipation — I thought Lance was lacking.
This isn’t a huge surprise given his limited number of starts. That in itself though is a cause for concern — especially when his accuracy was more miss than hit in a scripted environment designed to show off what he can do.
He has a great physique and all of the traits you want. In part, I think that’s why he got such a positive review. He looks the part. I think people were smitten with his physical appearance.
He did throw some nice passes, especially one long down-field bomb to the sideline that was inch perfect. His throws had velocity. Yet to me he looks incomplete and a significant project. He may need the same two-year learning curve that Josh Allen had — yet he doesn’t possess Allen’s super-human profile.
Allen was a gift from the football gods in terms of height, athleticism, arm strength, hand-size and mobility. Lance is good but not that good.
The hype is too much for me. It’s always possible a team becomes enamoured with the upside and takes him very early. I think he’s a fraction more appealing than Jordan Love and deserves to go in the same kind of range.
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