Alabama’s easy win at Mississippi State turned into a nightmare. Tua Tagovailoa left the game with a hip injury that left him down on the turf shouting in pain. It was difficult to watch.

According to Jim Nagy from the Senior Bowl it could be a serious hip fracture. David Chao believes it could be career threatening. It’s incredibly sad news and hopefully he will make a full recovery.

Massive defensive tackle Raekwon Davis was also carted off after being helped to the sideline. He wasn’t putting any weight on his left leg and apparently has a sprained ankle. Henry Ruggs also took a big hit and landed awkwardly. He left the game and didn’t return with a rib injury.

If Tua has suffered a hip fracture, that will have a big impact on the NFL and his potential pro-career. People are comparing it to the injury that ended Bo Jackson’s career.

The game finished 38-7 to Alabama with Jerry Jeudy excelling with seven catches for 114 yards. DeVonta Smith added six catches for 92 yards and Ruggs had three catches for 39 yards before the injury. Najee Harris had four total touchdowns while running for 88 yards and receiving a further 51 yards.

Harris has a particularly rounded skill set. Nothing really stands out. He’s not a top-level athlete, a punishing bell-cow or an electric speed runner. Yet he can do a bit of everything to a high level. His receiving score flashed a polished wheel route. His first and second rushing touchdowns required some physicality and a strong finish. His final score was all about patience and feeling the blocks in front.

DeVonta Smith ran a wonderful red-line route to the left sideline on his best play. In man coverage he just ran by the defender and beat him deep with speed. The angle of his route created a nice throwing window for Tua. Smith was gliding as he attacked the sideline and then made a great adjustment to catch the slightly under-thrown pass. It’s amazing how very few people in the draft media talk about Smith.

Elsewhere…

— K.J. Hamler left the game as Penn State beat Indiana 34-27. He was seemingly injured on a kick return. He had a great 44 yard reception and finished with two catches for 52 yards. The big catch was all about easy separation. For some reason Indiana left a safety to cover him from the slot. He just burned him off at the stem and created an enormous throwing window to the right sideline. He’s quickness and suddenness, like several other receivers in this class, is exceptional and will be appealing to the Seahawks. Pass rusher Yetur Gross-Matos had a sack, a TFL and a hurry in the game. He now has 6.5 sacks this season (4.5 of which came in two games against Purdue and a 79-7 win against Idaho).

— Again I want to discuss easy separation and this wide receiver class and Jalen Reagor showed a great example of that on a 55 yard touchdown against Texas Tech. He ran a post route and just ran away from the corner. It was an easy downfield throw for a big score. Reagor finished with three catches for 83 yards and the touchdown as TCU won 33-31. Pete Carroll spoke after the Niners game about how noticeable it was when Tyler Lockett wasn’t on the field. This is another reason why they may well target one of these dynamic, sudden receivers with an early pick. It’s not just insurance for Lockett but also a compliment.

— CeeDee Lamb did not play for Oklahoma against Baylor due to what was described as a vague ‘health issue’. There was nothing in the build up to the game that hinted at anything and ESPN ran a piece about him earlier in the day. He was compared to a magician in the feature. You wonder if this was a Tua influenced disappearing act with one eye on the pro’s? Without Lamb, Oklahoma came behind from a big deficit to end Baylor’s unbeaten run.

— Wisconsin running back Jonathan Taylor made an incredible one-handed catch against Nebraska but then fumbled the ball as he tried to turn up-field. As a runner he had 204 yards on 25 carries plus two touchdowns. One was well supplied by center Tyler Biadasz reaching the second level to connect with a linebacker. Both scores flashed Taylor’s finishing ability and he looked smooth and patient on the second run. Tight end Jake Ferguson’s production has regressed again as he finished with one catch for 14 yards in a 37-21 win.

— Florida’s Jonathan Greenard had two more sacks, an astonishing five TFL’s and a QB hurry in a 23-6 win at Missouri. Despite some recent injury issues, Greenard has been one of the more positive stories in college football this season. I plan to spend some time studying him over the coming weeks to get a better angle on him and see what his true potential could be.

— Clemson hammered Wake Forest 52-3 and it was a big day for receiver Tee Higgins. He had four catches for 63 yards but hauled in three touchdowns. Travis Etienne continued his streak of mass-production with 121 rushing yards on 16 carries plus a touchdown. He also added 37 yards on three catches.

— Ohio State rolled to another easy win, this time against Rutgers (52-14). J.K. Dobbins had 89 yards on 17 carries plus two touchdowns. Binjimen Victor also had two touchdowns along with 68 yards and five receptions. K.J. Hill managed 62 yards on four catches and a touchdown. Blog favourite Shaun Wade also had an incredible interception. The quarterback threw to the slot receiver and Wade stays tight in coverage. He tracks the ball superbly and somehow tips and controls the ball with one hand before bringing it in for the pick. It’s an unbelievable play and a great example of his top-20 potential. Jeff Okudah forced a fumble in the game.

— I haven’t spent any time studying Stanford tight end Colby Parkinson but I will do soon. He’s 6-7 and 251lbs. Against Washington State he had five catches for 80 yards. The Cougs won 49-22.

— Minnesota lost their unbeaten record today in a 23-19 loss to Iowa but Tyler Johnson had another huge day. He finished with nine catches for 170 yards and a touchdown. He did have a bad drop on a fourth down play that was somewhat costly. He ran an excellent route for his 28 yard score. He also made a really difficult catch over the middle — creating separation but the pass was floated and Johnson was hammered as he completed the catch (and somehow held on). He also climbed the ladder on a really good red-line route to the left hand sideline. Johnson’s been in our top-50 throughout. Team mate Reshod Bateman made another incredible high-pointed catch in the game. He’s a serious talent to keep an eye on for the future (he’s not draft eligible for 2020).

— Georgia’s offensive tackles are incredible. Jake Fromm threw a 51 yard touchdown thanks mainly due to the time he had in the pocket to let the route develop. Everyone knows about Andrew Thomas but Isaiah Wilson the enormous right tackle had to drop so deep in his set to seal off the outside rush and he handled it with ease. His mobility, athleticism and power is top-level and for me he’s a top-15 talent. Georgia defeated Auburn 21-14 but Derrick Brown had another strong performance to highlight his top-12 credentials. D’Andre Swift had 106 yards on 17 carries.

— Joe Burrow had another excellent performance against Ole Miss, albeit with a minor wobble late on. He threw two uncharacteristic interceptions — one a delayed, hesitant throw to the sideline and another a blind throw after an attempt to hold the safety in centerfield. He still threw for five touchdowns, looked mostly assured in the pocket and threw with his usual poise and accuracy. He just looks like a pro. He finished 32/42 passing for 489 yards and added another 26 as a runner. Clyde Edwards-Helaire also made another statement about his pro-prospects with 172 yards on 23 carries and a late score. His touchdown was a 49-yarder where he showed patience, a great cut and breakaway speed to finish. He’s a real talent and is emerging as a player who can have an impact at the next level. LSU’s defense was awful in this game though and they kept getting gashed by variations of the same quarterback run. John Rhys-Plumlee somehow ran for 212 yards and scored four touchdowns with pretty much a carbon copy of the same run over and over again. Grant Delpit had a nightmare game. He took bad angles, kept biting to lose contain and on Ole Miss’ final touchdown he whiffed on a tackle. He’s been hurt most of the year and looks nowhere near his best. Even so — games like this hurt his stock.

— Oregon’s Justin Herbert had a terrific performance as Oregon rolled Arizona 34-6. On a flea-flicker he fired an inch-perfect pass downfield for a 53 yard touchdown. The throw had everything and was a real ‘wow’ moment. He’s flown under the radar a bit this year — partly due to the emergence of Burrow and the media obsession for Tua. Some teams will love what Herbert brings to the table. It won’t be a surprise if he rises to the top of the QB charts, despite Burrow playing superbly this year. Herbert could land in Miami. With Tua’s injury and now uncertain future, he could be the second quarterback drafted at the very least.

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On Tuesday I posted an article detailing a number of stats following Monday Night Football. It seems that although Pro Football Reference updated some statistics (eg sacks) they didn’t update others (pressures, hurries, passer rating). So I wanted to correct a few errors today.

Jadeveon Clowney’s exceptional performance has now promoted him to #9 in the league for pressures (27). That’s as many as Nick Bosa and Chandler Jones, it’s two more than Dante Fowler and three more than Myles Garrett.

He’s also tied fifth for QB hurries (14). That’s the same number as Joey Bosa, one more than Nick Bosa and six more than Myles Garrett.

The fact he only has three sacks is deceiving relative to his overall performance. You only have to look at the players ranked at the top for pressures and hurries to see how indicative both statistics are. Khalil Mack (22) and Aaron Donald (21) are first and second in the league for hurries. Mack (31) and Donald (33) are also in the top four for pressures along with T.J. Watt (35) and Joey Bosa (32).

What makes this all the more impressive is the way Clowney is creating his pressure. The 3-4 teams have a bit more room to be creative. T.J. Watt’s league-leading 35 pressures coincide with the fact he has blitzed 41 times in 2019. Khalil Mack has blitzed 36 times. Clowney has been used on a blitz just once all year.

He’s never been a sack specialist. Unlike Mack, Donald, the Bosa’s and Garrett — Clowney’s not a speed rusher. He’s the quintessential base end who can move along the formation and create mismatches. He’s a radioactive Michael Bennett.

He’s also a truly unique player — the type the Seahawks will never get a chance to draft while ever they’re a long way off the #1 overall pick. They cannot allow him to move on in the off-season. The D-line has to be built around Clowney. It’s impossible to imagine how they would replace him.

The question shouldn’t be, ‘will they pull out all the stops to extend his contract?’. It should be, ‘who are they going to sign to play on the opposite side?’.

Without wanting to go over old ground too much — the names cropping up near the top of the NFL for pressures, hurries and sacks are Everson Griffen and Dante Fowler. Unless an unexpected name emerges or a trade is made out of the blue, these are the two having the biggest impact this year who fit the bill. Griffen is older but has history with Pete Carroll at USC and would potentially hold the fort until younger options emerge in future drafts. Fowler is at a great age, runs a 1.59 10-yard split and would provide the speed needed to compliment Clowney.

It’s vital that the Seahawks add a partner in crime. Practically all of the players at the top of the rankings for pressures are part of a double-act:

T.J. Watt (#1) & Bud Dupree (#26)
Aaron Donald (#2) & Dante Fowler (#14)
Everson Griffen (#5) & Danielle Hunter (#19)
Josh Allen (#6) & Calais Campbell (#20)
Za’Darius Smith (#7) & Preston Smith (#12)
Cameron Jordan (#8) & Marcus Davenport (#22)
Nick Bosa (#10) & Arik Armstead (#33) & Dee Ford (43)

There are only four obvious cases of a top pass rusher performing mostly single-handedly…

— Joey Bosa is ranked #3 for pressures but the next best performer for the Chargers is Uchenna Nwosu (#41). Melvin Ingram is tied 65th.

— Khalil Mack is ranked #4 but the next best pressure rusher for the Bears is Roy Robertson-Harris at #48.

— Jadeveon Clowney is ranked #9 and Seattle’s next best for pressures is Quinton Jefferson at a tied #65.

— Chandler Jones is ranked at #11 and his next best placed team mate is Terrell Suggs at #63.

One way or another they have to find someone — interior or EDGE — to provide some consistent support. If they can do that, Seattle’s defense could be as fearsome in 2020 week-to-week as it was in San Francisco on Monday.

The stats update also impacted the defensive back and linebacker numbers I provided too. Marquise Blair didn’t feature against the Niners but his generous 126.6 passer rating when targeted is now the 15th instead of the 17th worst mark in the league (and likely a big reason why he’s no longer in the line-up).

Bradley McDougald’s number rose slightly after the Niners game — going from 38.6 to 42.8. That’s still an excellent mark — the eighth best defensive back in the league per passer rating.

Shaquill Griffin’s fantastic game means his passer rating improved from 80.0 to 73.9. Tre Flowers saw his number rise from 76.7 to 77.5.

McDougald’s yards per target numbers improved. He now only gives up four yards per target instead of 4.2. Earl Thomas gives up 4.8 per target. Shaquill Griffin is at 5.6. Seattle’s core defensive backs are not playing badly at all this year. With more pressure up front — as we saw on Monday — this defense can be highly productive.

Bobby Wagner is third in the league for tackles (97) behind only Blake Martinez (102) and Jordan Hicks (99). K.J. Wright is sixth on the list with 85. There’s something very important to consider here. Our perception is Seattle hasn’t tackled well. Their two linebackers are ranked in the top-10 for tackles in the NFL. Now look at their missed tackle percentage compared to the rest of the top-10:

Blake Martinez — 11.3%
Jordan Hicks — 11.6%
Bobby Wagner — 7.6%
Joe Schobert — 10.7%
Budda Baker — 7.6%
K.J. Wright — 5.7%
Rashaan Evans — 15.5%
Luke Kuechly — 8.9%
Jaylon Smith — 10%
Landon Collins — 13.2%

Only Budda Baker comes close to matching their consistency as high-volume tacklers.

Seattle has one glaring issue when it comes to missed tackles and that remains Mychal Kendricks. However, maybe things are improving. Last week he was the NFL leader in missed tackle percentage. Now he’s only ranked #7 with 24.6%.

Kendricks is the only Seattle player ranked in the top-100 for missed tackle percentage. The next highest are Shaquill Griffin and Quinton Jefferson (both #107) with 14.3% missed tackles. Tre Flowers and Bradley McDougald (14%) are just behind. In comparison, Aaron Donald has missed 13.9% of his tackles this year.

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Jadeveon Clowney shines

The Seahawks know who they need to build their D-line around. Regardless of the performance in the game, the pass rush needs major surgery in the off-season.

The use of Shaquem Griffin instead of Ziggy Ansah was a frank admission that the Ansah signing hasn’t worked. They need speed off the edge and Griffin at least provides that. The number one off-season priority will surely be to re-sign Clowney and pair him with a dynamic speed rusher. I’ll have more on that in a moment.

Clowney has always had game-wrecking potential and he showed it in this game. It helped that for the first time this season he was well supported. The rest of the D-line raised their game. The defense doesn’t need to be the LOB. It just needs to make some plays and not be a liability.

The big question is whether this was a flash in the pan or the early signs of a turn. The Seahawks have been sliced and diced by too many opponents to feel truly confident that this unit is ready to take a leap forward. It’s a start though.

We’ve seen what Clowney can do when he’s given some support. The Seahawks can’t afford to lose him in the off-season unless the price tag just becomes unbearable. Which, unfortunately, is possible if he keeps up this form in the second half of the season. If he continues to play this way he’d still be worth the investment. He only turns 27 in February. There aren’t many players like this on the planet. He was the #1 overall pick for a reason. They can’t lose him. They need to build with him.

What the stats say

Despite his great game on Monday, Clowney is only 35th in the league for pressures with 18. However, that is the same number as DeMarcus Lawrence and one more than Chris Jones.

He’s PFF’s third ranked defensive end (89.6), behind only T.J. Watt (91.0) and Nick Bosa (89.7).

Dante Fowler is 12th with 25 and Everson Griffen is sixth with a massive 31. T.J. Watt and Aaron Donald lead the league with 34. Joey Bosa is third with 32.

Clowney is 24th in the league with nine hurries. Dante Fowler is now fourth with 15 — behind only Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald and Cameron Jordan. Everson Griffen is sixth with 13 and Von Miller tenth with 11.

In terms of TFL’s, the numbers are surprising. It feels like Clowney has had more impact than his five so far which only ranks #71 in the league. Strangely that’s the same number as Von Miller and Khalil Mack. Frank Clark has six TFL’s (so essentially one more sack and one more TFL than Clowney). DeMarcus Lawrence has six TFL’s too and 4.5 sacks.

Aaron Donald leads the league with 13. Joey and Nick Bosa are second and third with 12 apiece. Dante Fowler is sixth with 10. Yannick Ngakoue has seven and ranks 24th.

If the Seahawks want to add a true impact rusher with speed to play across from Clowney, Dante Fowler stands out as a possibility. He signed a one-year deal in LA for $12m. His market was lukewarm a year ago, forcing him to sign a prove-it type deal. In terms of sacks, pressures and TFL’s he is performing at the level the Seahawks need. He doesn’t turn 26 until next August. He ran a 1.59 10-yard split at his combine (anything in the 1.5’s is considered ideal). We’ll need to see what his market is but that’s the guy I’d put a circle around.

Whatever happens, adding a speed element to the pass rusher is much needed.

Bradley McDougald is underrated

The stats at safety are very interesting and really highlight why they benched Marquise Blair and why they are so high on Bradley McDougald.

Marquise Blair was conceding a 126.6 passer rating when he was targeted — the 17th highest in the league. McDougald, in comparison, has the seventh lowest passer rating when targeted (38.6). That’s better than Richard Sherman (43.2) and Tre’Davious White (44.4).

McDougald also gives up 4.2 yards per target. That’s 13th best in the league and on a similar level to Harrison Smith (4.1). Earl Thomas gives up 4.8 yards per target.

Blair is conceding 7.5 yards per target.

A lot of people questioned Seattle’s decision to bench Blair for the Niners game, especially given PFF in their special PFF way graded him as Seattle’s best defender against Tampa Bay. This is an indication as to why the Seahawks made the move.

The fact that PFF graded him highly suggests he didn’t play badly in terms of the basics. Yet PFF don’t have intimate knowledge of Seattle’s scheme. It’s possible he’s not quite nailing the scheme and thus he’s conceding yards at a rate the Seahawks are uncomfortable with.

This is actually quite encouraging. It presents a scenario where Blair’s play has been decent and he just needs time and experience in the system. By trading for Quandre Diggs, they buy themselves some time. Diggs had an excellent start against San Francisco with two big hits and an interception. If he can quietly lock down a section of the field like the stats suggest McDougald is, the Seahawks will be in good shape.

Other stats of note

Tre Flowers’ passer rating against is 76.7. That’s actually better than Shaquille Griffin’s (80.0).

Mychal Kendricks no longer leads the league in missed tackles (that’s Denzel Ward). He’s now only seventh with 24.6% missed tackles. Yannick Ngakoue is a place above him with 25.8% missed tackles.

Re-sign Germain Ifedi?

Germain Ifedi received a 71.9 pass-blocking grade from PFF. People will hammer him for the surreal fumble for a touchdown. He actually caught Wilson’s fumble and found himself in an unusual position. In terms of blocking, he’s having a good year. He’s nowhere near the liability some fans and pundits suggest. As long as his price tag isn’t extortionate, the Seahawks should seek to avoid creating a problem at right tackle and try to retain him.

Is Jamar Taylor really a problem?

Nickel corner is an unforgiving position. You’re often isolated against a sudden, talented receiver trying to cover a lot of space. There aren’t many truly excellent nickel corner’s for a reason.

In terms of the stats, nothing really stands out with Jamar Taylor. He gives up 10.5 yards a completion which is about the same as Bradley McDougald (9.8) and it’s lower than Flowers (10.6) and Griffin (11.0). Akeem King is giving up 18.7 yards per completion.

Taylor’s 6.6 yards conceded per target is marginally worse than Griffin’s (6.0) and Flowers’ (6.3).

His completion percentage is 62.5%. Flowers is giving up 59.6% and Griffin 55.1%. The completion percentage vs Bobby Wagner is 87.1%.

Clearly Taylor gave up some catches against the Niners and will likely be a one-and-done player in Seattle. Yet he’s maybe not quite the liability some think. He’s not playing great but he’s not awful either. And let’s give him credit for the tipped pass he had late on to force a punt last night.

Should they go after Vernon Hargreaves?

Tampa Bay cut Vernon Hargreaves today. If you want to sign him be aware he’s given up the third most yards in coverage this season (578) behind only Isaiah Oliver (634) and Kyle Fuller (631).

Let’s compare Hargreaves with Jamar Taylor:

Yards conceded

Taylor: 210
Hargreaves: 578

Yards per completion

Taylor: 10.5
Hargreaves: 12.8

Yards per target

Taylor: 6.6
Hargreaves: 8.9

Passer rating

Taylor: 81.5
Hargreaves: 110.9

Completion percentage

Taylor: 62.5%
Hargreaves: 69.2%

Maybe Hargreaves would benefit from a fresh start? However, he is not performing better than Taylor in any category.

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This was an incredible game. A complete mess, but incredible.

To the neutral it was probably the game of the season. To Seahawks and 49ers fans it was exhausting.

Both teams made a horrendous number of mistakes. The ref’s were appalling — for both teams. And yet somehow the game was overflowing with moments of brilliance and high drama (again, by both teams).

I can’t remember a game like it. The early dominance from San Francisco before the Seahawks scored 21 points on turnovers. A Jimmy Garoppolo pick and one that was called back by a flag. A fumble by Garoppolo returned for a touchdown. A fumble by Russell Wilson (shared by Germain Ifedi) returned for a touchdown. Two late dropped interceptions by K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner. One brilliantly caught interception by Dre Greenlaw to seemingly deny the Seahawks a win. A missed kick by Chase McLaughlin to keep them alive.

And a week after having possibly the worst game of his career against Tampa Bay, Jason Myers kicked the winning field goal.

It had practically everything. It was unpredictable, it was maddening, it was exciting and it tired you out.

Players on both teams left the field with injuries. The Seahawks are fortunate to have a bye week next. They’ll feel this one tomorrow.

It was physical, majestic, ridiculous and rubbish all in one go.

Both teams contributed. Both teams deserve credit. Both teams looked like contenders.

The Niners have looked that way for several weeks. For the first time, the Seahawks looked the part tonight. It’s all thanks to an improved defensive performance.

Wilson wasn’t at his best. The entire offense struggled against San Francisco’s punishing unit.

Yet a defense that hadn’t done anything all year suddenly burst into life, thanks to a career-best performance from Jadeveon Clowney.

All those years of promise at South Carolina and the gradual development at Houston came to a crescendo here. This was a player making a statement — for future earnings and for status.

Suddenly, when well supported by the rest of the unit, Clowney was an unstoppable force. He was no longer a one-man band. The Seahawks have found the player they need to build their D-line around for the long haul.

Garoppolo looked rattled. They limited the Niners to 87 rushing yards at 3.2 YPC. They had five sacks (and it could’ve been six had the awful refs not flagged Quinton Jefferson on one of several weak calls).

Clowney wasn’t alone. Shaquille Griffin had a remarkable third down PBU in overtime. The rest of the D-line stepped up to the plate and Quandre Diggs announced his arrival with two big hits and an interception.

Combine this type of defensive performance with Seattle’s quarterback and general offensive play and things are looking up.

There were some negatives to discuss in more detail at a later date. Ziggy Ansah was essentially benched for Shaquem Griffin — an acknowledgement that it isn’t working for Ansah and that they need more speed off the edge. D.K. Metcalf — as good as he is — can’t high-point a football and that needs to change with his size and talent. They also lost three more fumbles, taking their season total to 11 in 10 games.

Some context is also required in the sheer number of injuries San Francisco has. The Seahawks are working without Will Dissly and Justin Britt and lost Tyler Lockett in the game. The Niners were also without George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Azeez Al-Shaair, D.J. Jones and Ronald Blair left the game, Ahkello Witherspoon didn’t play and Weston Richburg missed some time.

Nevertheless, this was one the Seahawks had to have. And they got it. In the most elongated, ridiculously dramatic fashion they’re 5-0 on the road. And rather than stew on one that got away for two weeks, Seahawks fans can instead dare to dream.

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Seattle on defense

Kyle Shanahan’s offense is a problem for Seattle. Atlanta tore strips off the LOB, including in the 2016 playoff game. Even when the Niners lost 43-16 in Seattle last season, Nick Mullen had a 414 yard game.

Even if George Kittle doesn’t play as expected, Shanahan has a formula to dissect and manipulate Seattle’s unit. Considering how poorly they’ve played this year it’ll likely be an exercise in damage limitation.

The key question is whether they can steal a turnover or two on defense to create enough of a swing to support the offense? And failing that, can they find a way to concede three instead of seven? It’s been difficult to watch practically every team march up-and-down the field on Seattle’s defense. It’s a bit optimistic to think the unbeaten Niners are going to be any different.

We know they’re not going to harass Jimmy Garoppolo. They’ll probably give up some gains in the running game. Limiting San Francisco to field goals whenever possible and pinching a turnover or two is vital. Either that or it’s going to be on the offense to pull off another miracle.

Seattle on offense

A lot of people on Twitter will want ‘Russ to cook’ tonight but that’s not necessarily a recipe for success in this game. San Francisco’s defensive line is the best in the league and has the potential to be one of the best in recent memory. They can consistently rush with four, create relentless pressure and drop players in coverage.

The Seahawks will have to find a way to slow-down the rush. They will need to box-clever and try to force San Francisco to be a bit more aggressive. The best way to do this is to run the ball effectively.

Arizona had a big day running against San Francisco last week and they’ve now lost Kwon Alexander to IR. The Niners’ biggest strength on defense is their pass rush. The best way to take that threat away is to limit the opportunities they have to impact the game.

They’ll still need Wilson magic of course. They will in every game this season. They need to try and find a balance similar to the Rams win. There they ran for 167 yards and Wilson finished 17/23 passing for 268 yards and four touchdowns. He might need to throw more times in this game if it ends up being a shoot-out or if the Seahawks get behind. That’s probably the blueprint though.

Five years ago the Seahawks vs Niners games emulated the slug-fest Alabama vs LSU games. Two days after the college version played out a 46-41 encounter, we might be set to witness the NFL version this evening.

Special teams

A year ago the Seahawks lost a game they should’ve won in Santa Clara. They gave up cheap points on a kick return and Sebastian Janikowski missed an extra point. The game ended up going to overtime.

The Seahawks actually started very well with a scoring drive. The instant nature of San Francisco’s kick return score blew any momentum Seattle had.

It’s stating the obvious to say Jason Myers needs to be better. This hasn’t been an easy stadium to kick in. Robbie Gould has struggled this year. Hopefully Myers will be able to bounce back from last week’s horror show. This is a crucial game for him and he knows it. The Seahawks need a lot to go their way including a special teams edge.

Final thought

The Seahawks were battered by New Orleans and Baltimore — the two ‘proper’ teams they’ve faced this year. Let’s hope those were simply two bad days at the office and not the reality of what this team is.

I fear this is San Francisco’s answer to Seattle’s game against New Orleans in 2013. That was a Monday Night Football game. The Seahawks, at 10-1, were out to prove they were the real deal. They destroyed the Saints before finishing the season 2-2.

The Niners likely won’t finish 16-0 and will lose at some point. Whether it happens tonight in primetime with the spotlight on them, I’m not so sure.

Feel free to use this as an open thread for MNF.

Here’s one final plug for my interview with Dave Wyman, talking about the big moments in Seahawks history and looking ahead to the game. If you want something to get you in the mood for tonight — check it out:

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Today confirmed two things — LSU are the best team in the country and Joe Burrow is the best player.

It’s unquestionable. It can’t be challenged. It’s been trending that way for a few weeks and all today did was confirm it.

Burrow is the best draft eligible quarterback for 2020. If you need a QB and you’re picking first overall, you take him.

That’s not an overreaction to one game either. For weeks now we’ve been projecting Burrow as the superior player. Today was merely confirmation and validation.

Clearly Tua Tagovailoa wasn’t 100% healthy in this game. He also played pretty well at times. Burrow was clearly the superior player, however.

Without him at quarterback this LSU team isn’t anything special. With him they’ve gone to Texas and won, they’ve gone to Florida and won and they defeated Auburn at home. All were top-10 teams at the time. Now they’ve gone into Alabama and ended their long unbeaten home record.

It’s all about Burrow.

There were no flaws in his game. He was a surgeon in terms of accuracy. His poise and awareness in the pocket is exceptional. He’s not a major athlete or running quarterback — yet his ability to dodge pressure, keep his eyes downfield and deliver a well-thrown ball is top-level. When he needs to make a gain with his legs he can do it and he had several crucial runs in the game. He’s also highly competitive and elevated his team to a huge 46-41 win.

His back-shoulder throw on his first touchdown was absolutely perfect. His throw to Thaddeus Moss working against Trevon Diggs — with almost no margin for error by the right pylon — was a thing of beauty.

He throws with touch and accuracy at every level and when he needs to get on his skates and extend plays he can do that too.

The only thing missing is a huge arm. Even then, he’s very much in the ‘good not great’ category. It isn’t a weakness. Isn’t a problem. Ever since week one he’s looked like an emerging talent. The Texas game gave us a flash of quality we didn’t see in 2018. Now, he’s shown he’s the real deal.

After today he’ll be at the top of most mock drafts and he’ll certainly be at the front of the line for the Heisman. Without Burrow none of this would be possible for LSU. They have good players but not on the same scale as Alabama. Their quarterback has taken them to a new level this season.

Every time Alabama scored, he had an answer. Every touchdown drive asked a question of Burrow. How are you going to respond? Can you deal with the pressure?

Each question was answered emphatically. His expression never changed throughout four bruising quarters. He was calm and collected and deadly in the pocket.

What about Tagovailoa?

He didn’t have a bad game. He had some significant errors that we’ll come on to. He also benefited from some huge gifts that padded out his stats.

He’s a quality prospect and one that warrants top-10 consideration in the draft. He will have an opportunity to have a good NFL career if he lands in the right setting with a team willing to play to his strengths.

That said, he was vaulted way above reality during the summer and the whole ‘Tank for Tua’ movement was premature at best. Miami Dolphins fans, without any hope in 2019, latched on to him as a potential saviour. He was the reason to keep going during a hopeless 2019 season.

The reality is he’s not a saviour. A few years ago everyone overanalysed Deshaun Watson because he stayed for his final year in Clemson. The reverse seems to be happening with Tua. For too long people overlooked the issues because he was winning and the stats were great.

Today we saw a regular issue rearing it’s ugly head.

LSU scored right before half-time, leaving a few seconds on the clock. Alabama really should’ve cut their losses and took a knee. Instead they came out throwing. Tagovailoa has a serious issue looking off safeties and too often he gets baited into turnovers. It happened against Georgia and Mississippi State and it happened again here. He locked on to his target right down the middle of the field, didn’t sense the safety lurking in the long grass and threw an easy interception.

Compare that to Burrow. He’s running through his progressions. You see him reading the defense, manipulating the safety. He didn’t come close to throwing a pick today. Tua has had three interceptions that are all identical this year. At the next level when things get quicker and he isn’t presented with an outstanding array of weapons and a strong O-line — is he going to be able to go through his reads and avoid turnovers?

He also has a tendency to throw high and behind. His injured ankle perhaps hampered his mechanics today but this isn’t the first time he’s looked a bit streaky. He’s quite robotic in his delivery.

After that avoidable pick, Burrow needed one play to turn it into a 33-13 game at the half. He ended with 31/39 passing for 393 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 64 yards on 13 carries. His only turnover was a forced fumble on a blitz by Xavier McKinney. There was little he could do about it.

Tagovailoa finished 21/40 passing for 418 yards and four touchdowns plus the pick. He also had a bizarre fumble on a red zone run on Alabama’s first drive. Untouched and in open space he simply dropped the ball.

Tua’s numbers were boosted by some poor defensive decisions by the LSU coaches. Tagovailoa’s first touchdown was a gift. The sideline distracted talented cornerback Derek Stingley by trying to change the play at the last minute. As Stingley took his instruction with his head turned to the coaches, the ball was snapped. It allowed DeVonta Smith to sprint by Stingley for an easy 64 yard, wide-open touchdown.

Then in the fourth quarter with LSU possessing a two-score lead and Alabama needing a miracle, for some reason they opted to go man-for-man in coverage and not play prevent defense. Smith ran a go-route and beat Stingley for speed by the left sideline. Tagovailoa threw a hopeful heave downfield and Smith made a fantastic play for an 85 yard score. It was a ridiculous play-call by LSU and it could’ve cost them. That’s essentially two touchdowns and 149 yards gifted to Alabama on those two plays alone.

This was billed as a key game in the National Championship, Heisman and #1 pick race. The winners were LSU and Burrow in every facet.

Overall the game lived up to expectations with the long list of future NFL players taking their turn to shine.

DeVonta Smith ended with seven catches for 213 yards thanks to the two touchdown gifts. He did also have a vital fourth down conversion on a slant. He’s probably the most underrated player on Alabama’s team and as we’ve been saying for a while — he deserves a lot more attention.

Smith and Jerry Jeudy also had some drops today. Smith had a botched reception on a short throw in an attempt to set up a screen. Jeudy had two drops that eliminated potential touchdowns. One was a terrific deep throw by Tagovailoa, the other a shorter range throw in the red zone. Jeudy made up for the second one with a scoring catch on the next play. He finished with five catches for 71 yards and the score.

Henry Ruggs was mostly kept in check but he started the game with a terrific 26-yard reception. Ruggs has speed to burn but he’s also excellent at catching the ball away from his body. He plucked the ball out of the air to secure a difficult catch for a first down. He ended with three catches for 68 yards.

Alabama safety Xavier McKinney had a good day. He had a major impact as a blitzer attacking the LOS and collected two sacks and 2.5 TFL’s. He forced the Burrow fumble. He blocked an extra point. He also failed to tackle Clyde Edwards-Helaire on his way to a touchdown — with CEH delivering a brutal spin-move to get free. Open-field tackling has long been an issue for McKinney and while it was nice to see him work effectively as a blitzer — he’s not going to be doing that most downs in the NFL.

Speaking of Edwards-Helaire — he and Najee Harris both put on a show. Originally it was Harris running around and over defenders, cutting into gaps and scoring a fantastic receiving touchdown on a wheel route. Then CEH took over with his best Darren Sproles meets Maurice Jones-Drew impression. He’s a bundle of power and speed. He iced the game with a beast-mode run, carrying 5-6 defenders for a first down. Both players significantly boosted their stock today. Harris finished with 146 yards on 19 carries, three catches for 44 yards and two total touchdowns. CEH had 103 yards on 20 carries, nine receptions for 77 yards and four total touchdowns. He delivered an excellent post-game interview too — well spoken and playing with a chip on his shoulder.

The 2020 draft is going to be full of quality at the running back position.

Kristian Fulton had a better day than fellow corner Trevon Diggs. Fulton did a terrific job breaking up a throw to Ruggs. He stayed with his man and reached his arm out to separate ball from receiver. It was an excellent read, he showed patience not to make contact too early. It was a textbook piece of coverage and he avoided errors elsewhere.

It felt like Diggs was having a bad game early on but really it was just Burrow’s brilliance. Later on though he was guilty of a few botched tackles on CEH and he gave up a key first down and a touchdown by focusing on trying to rip the ball out rather than making the tackle.

With 4:50 left in the first half, pass rusher Terrell Lewis showed a great get-off on and delivered a superb punch to the right tackle to create a B-gap opening to force Burrow out of the pocket. From there, Raekwon Davis sprinted from the right hash to the sideline to force him out of bounds for a loss of yardage. Unfortunately there weren’t many other splash plays from the duo although Lewis caught the McKinney forced fumble. He was credited with only half a TFL but three QB hurries.

Safety Grant Delpit had a relatively quiet game but played through a bad ankle.

K’Lavon Chaisson did a nice job working in space. On one instance he read a wide receiver screen to bring DeVonta Smith down and force a punt. Chaisson ran a 4.69 at SPARQ. He only had two sacks coming into the game and 4.5 TFL’s but he had 3.5 TFL’s in this game alone. He might provide some value in the middle or later rounds.

Elsewhere…

— Minnesota beat Penn State 31-26 in an exciting BIG-10 game, with two receivers shining. Tyler Johnson has been in my top-50 throughout and he showed why today. He finished with seven catches for 104 yards and a touchdown. On the score, he ran a route down the right sideline in 1v1 coverage. Johnson tracked the ball superbly and despite having one arm pulled back by the defender, he made an improbable completion by pinning the ball to his helmet with his free arm. He then tip-toed the sideline and somehow stayed in bounds for a 38 yard touchdown. It was an incredible play. The other reception he had that stood out came with 8:32 left in the game. He ran a slant from the slot on 2nd and 8 and the ball was thrown behind. He simply adjusted on the move to make a difficult grab look easy for a completion and a first down.

Rashad Bateman, somehow, still outshone Johnson. The sophomore (who’s also a team captain) was simply unstoppable. He also had seven catches but for 203 yards and a touchdown. Every target he received in the game led to a first down or a touchdown. He was sudden, elusive, he got open with easy and he made difficult catches look easy. He’s definitely a player to monitor.

Cornerback Antoine Winfield Jr had two interceptions to take his season tally to seven. We all know his dad’s career in Minnesota (and he had a very brief spell in Seattle). He has a big decision to make about potentially turning pro. He’s a redshirt sophomore. He likely won’t have a season like this again and who knows where P.J. Fleck will be coaching next year? It might be best to bite the bullet. Could he be a solid slot corner at the next level?

For Penn State, Yetur Gross-Matos had one of his all-too frequent disappearing acts. K.J. Hamler was Penn State’s only consistent receiving threat. He consistently got open, finished with seven catches for 119 yards and had a nice kick-return called back. However, he was bullied in the red zone. Jalen Reagor and Henry Ruggs play above their size in the red zone and do an excellent job boxing out defenders or leaping to high-point the ball. Hamler doesn’t do this and it’s why he’s below both players on my board.

— I’ve been sceptical about Jacob Eason all year and that’s being validated recently. He’s getting worse, not better. He makes strange decisions, is starting to turn the ball over and he isn’t elevating Washington. He’s not played much college football at all and he certainly doesn’t look ready for the NFL. He has the physical tools but he’s nowhere near ready in terms of decision making, pocket awareness and anticipation. He threw another pick-six against Oregon State on a two-interception night. If Eason is regressing, tight end Hunter Bryant is looking better and better. He was a top SPARQ performer and he looks like the real deal as a move-TE with the potential to do some blocking too. He had a beastly 50 yard completion that should’ve been a score but was called back on a hold. He finished with five catches for 90 yards. He looks like a top-45 prospect.

— Another week, another hammering dished out by Ohio State. They destroyed Maryland 73-14 despite losing Chase Young to a likely four-game suspension. J.K. Dobbins had 12 carries for 90 yards and two touchdowns before getting a breather. He also had a catch for eight yards. Binjimen Victor had three catches for 36 yards and a score. K.J. Hill managed four catches for 56 yards and a touchdown. Victor and Hill could provide some later round value and both are very athletic. Dobbins should be a top-45 pick.

— Jalen Reagor was surprisingly quiet as TCU lost to Baylor 29-23 in overtime. He was limited to one catch for eight yards and two runs for four yards.

— Colorado and Laviska Shenault have had a tough year. Today they had a better day, defeating Stanford 16-13 with Shenault managing eight catches for 91 yards. He also had a run for five yards. Shenault left the game in the first half to head to the locker room. He does get banged up.

— Jonathan Taylor ran for 250 yards on 31 carries as Wisconsin defeated Iowa 24-22. He also had a catch for eight yards. Tight end Jake Ferguson managed two catches for 19 yards. A.J. Epenesa recorded a sack in the game.

— Michael Pittman Jr. had another big day for USC with 146 yards on 13 receptions. Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk had five catches for 51 yards and a score. Eno Benjamin was bottled up for 52 yards on 20 carries but also added 48 yards on seven catches. USC won the game 31-26.

— Clemson took apart NC State 55-10. Tee Higgins had four catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. Travis Etienne recorded 112 yards on 14 carries, three catches for 31 yards and had three total touchdowns.

— Ceedee Lamb had one of his trademark incredible YAC touchdowns as Oklahoma squeezed by Iowa State 42-41. Lamb increasingly looks like Cordarelle Patterson with actual receiving skills and he finished with 167 yards on eight catches and two scores.

— Julian Okwara suffered a fractured ankle as Notre Dame beat Duke 38-7. His season is clearly over but it remains to be seen how this will impact his draft stock. Will he be ready to work out before the draft?

— South Carolina beat Georgia a few weeks ago. This weekend they lost 20-15 at home to Appalachian State. Javon Kinlaw shared a sack and a TFL.

— Utah State quarterback Jordan Love has had such a poor year he might return to college next season (transfer to Oklahoma?). He had a bounce back game this weekend though in a 37-35 win at Fresno State. Love threw for 388 yards and had two touchdowns. He also had 30 rushing yards on six carries.

— You’ve got to love the Georgia O-line. Andrew Thomas and Isaiah Wilson could both go in top fifteen or twenty. D’Andre Swift had 83 rushing yards on 12 carries as they beat Missouri 27-0. Lawrence Cager had 93 yards on six carries.

If you missed my interview with Dave Wyman yesterday you can check it out here…

At the London game last year, one of my favorite moments was meeting former Seahawks linebacker Dave Wyman.

This week I had an opportunity to interview Dave following the release of his new book, titled ‘If These Walls Could Talk‘. There are some excellent stories and it’s great for Seahawks fans who want to relieve all the eventful moments in team history — many of which Dave has been part of as a player or member of the media.

You can order a copy by clicking here.

Check out the full interview below:

There’s very little the Seahawks can do in 2019 to improve their failing pass rush. Their hopes this season rest squarely with the MVP candidate at quarterback. They have become, like a lot of other teams, entirely dependant on their QB.

Very few win a Championship this way. Look at New England last season. They beat the Rams thanks to a defensive masterclass from the most successful coach in NFL history. The Broncos in 2015 won a title solely thanks to their defense. Seattle combined Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch with the LOB.

Usually you need a good defense to go far in the playoffs. It’s certain that Seattle’s off-season priority will be to fix this unit. In many ways the struggles this year might benefit the Seahawks in 2020. They know major work is required. They’ll be under no illusions. And they will almost certainly act aggressively to repair the defense and the pass rush.

But what can they do?

As we’ve noted quite a few times already, this isn’t going to be a strong draft class for defensive linemen. There’s some early round depth at cornerback but in terms of the other positions on defense, it’s slim pickings.

The clear strength of this class in the top-50 will be wide receiver and it might be that the Seahawks tap into that (see yesterday’s report on the brilliance of Jalen Reagor) with their first pick, placing the responsibility of defensive improvement on free agency.

It’s also possible they could use their first round pick in a trade. They’ve done it twice before to land Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham. For the right player who can provide proven quality to the pass rush, it’s possible they’d strike a deal. The options aren’t obvious. They might need to see who gets tagged and take it from there. They’d need a similar situation to Frank Clark a year ago — a team unwilling to pay up but also willing to strike a deal for a fair price.

It’s very likely Kansas City and Jacksonville will work to extend or tag Chris Jones and Yannick Ngakoue but they are the two most apparent options if the Seahawks were to make a Clark-style trade. Whether they’d be interested in either for such a high cost (picks and salary) is a question mark.

Some high profile players could be dealt for cost-saving purposes. Von Miller’s cap hit in 2020 is $25.6m. Considering he turns 31 in March and is having a relatively unproductive season by his standards, it’s possible the Broncos will think about moving on.

Presumably teams would have interest in Miller provided the Broncos were prepared to be realistic in trade talks. The problem is if you’re trading a first round pick you want at least four years of production for the investment. Can you guarantee that from a 31-year-old?

Miller does still have 21 pressures this season, good enough for #17 in the league. His 11 QB hurries are tied for seventh. The Broncos might try to extend his contract to lower his 2020 cap hit.

Another player who could be in a similar situation is Calais Campbell. His cap hit in Jacksonville is $17.5m in 2020. It’s the final year of his deal and by moving on the Jags can save $15m. At the moment Jacksonville only has $4m in cap space for 2020 and need money to keep Ngakoue. They have to make some savings and Campbell, aged 33, could be an option.

It also seems pretty obvious that the Jags love him and everything he brings on and off the field. They might be able to extend his deal to lessen the hit. The Seahawks have been crying out for a Campbell type player for years to anchor the D-line. If there was a way to get him — either via trade or signing him after he’s cut — it could be an appealing move.

Campbell has 23 pressures this season (ranked #14 in the league), 5.5 sacks and nine QB knockdowns (#3 in the league). This is great production for a defensive tackle and the Seahawks need someone to handle the interior.

There are three other names to consider.

Everson Griffen was linked to the Seahawks by John Clayton on a couple of occasions this year. He’s 32 in December but is having a bounce-back season for the Vikings. Griffen has 24 pressures — the eighth most in the league and level with Aaron Donald. He also has 5.5 sacks and nine hurries.

Dante Fowler is playing on a one-year contract with the Rams and quietly is having an excellent season. He has 25 pressures (sixth most in the NFL), 6.5 sacks and 15 QB hurries (third most behind only Khalil Mack and Cameron Jordan). Fowler doesn’t even turn 26 until next August so he’s at a really good age. While Calais Campbell and Everson Griffen would be short-term solutions, Fowler is potentially someone who could have a longer-term impact.

The Rams have $26m in cap space for 2020 but a large portion of that will go towards a Jalen Ramsey extension.

Arik Armstead is another possible option. He’s had an injury-impacted career so far but is having a strong 2019 season. He has 12 pressures and 5.5 sacks. He turns 26 later this month. San Francisco only has $17.6m in cap space for 2020 so they might not be able to keep him.

With $72m in available cap space next year, the Seahawks will have an opportunity to be aggressive. Their collection of draft picks (including three in the first two rounds) should give them an opportunity to fill other holes on the roster, creating the freedom to go after the free agents needed to improve the pass rush.

It’s also important that the Seahawks retain the players who are actually performing on the line currently.

Quinton Jefferson has 12 pressures — the same number as Armstead. Jefferson is unlikely to break the bank and could be retained for a modest sum to compliment the rotation.

Jadeveon Clowney has been a one-man band for the Seahawks with 18 pressures and 10 QB hurries. According to this ESPN article, Clowney ranks joint fifth in the league for pass-rush win rate at 27%. He’s level with Dante Fowler, while Calais Campbell is ranked fourth among defensive tackles (19%).

It’s perhaps wishful thinking to imagine a scenario where the Seahawks land Fowler and Campbell while retaining Clowney. It’d certainly be costly. It’s the kind of aggressive power-play this team is ready for though. The offense is playing superbly. The defense is being propped up and bailed out.

There’s a big question mark about Jarran Reed. In three games he hasn’t bolstered the pass rush since returning from suspension. He still has plenty of time to earn a large extension and help the team but he’s had a slow start. At the moment, he seems likely to test the market and take it from there. It’s hard to predict what kind of offers he’d get.

In 2020 they can become a serious contender with a bold off-season. The draft isn’t going to provide obvious solutions to the pass-rush dilemma. Free agency could. The Seahawks have been aggressive before — whether it was in 2011 when they paid out for Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Robert Gallery or 2013 when they traded for Harvin before adding Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril.

Expect 2020 to be similarly pro-active.

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The 2020 draft will be defined by the quarterbacks and receivers. Multiple wide outs will be taken in round one.

I’m starting to wonder whether Jalen Reagor is the best of the lot.

College football is littered with receivers who dominate overmatched cornerbacks. Spread systems also extend the field to make stat-building a lot easier. So many players get overhyped on production and perceived ability that won’t translate.

The thing to look for is easy separation. A lot of college receivers box-out defenders or the quarterback takes a five-step drop in the gun to open up everything underneath. If a player is creating separation with quickness and savvy routes you’re onto a winner. The 2014 class is a great example of this. Odell Beckham Jr and Mike Evans made it look so easy with the way they separated from defenders. It’s easy to say now but you could just tell they were destined to be top pro’s. Receiver can be one of the easier positions to analyse if you’re looking for the right traits.

A lot of the top receivers in this class create that easy separation. Henry Ruggs reportedly runs in the 4.2’s and flashes for Alabama. So do team mates Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith. K.J. Hamler can separate with his quickness. Ceedee Lamb is slightly different and plays a lot like Cordarrelle Patterson with receiving skills. It’s harder to judge Laviska Shenault because he’s used as a bit of a receiver and a bit of a runner and isn’t having a good final year at Colorado.

Reagor has extreme speed and quickness and you see him getting open on shorter routes with ease but he can also take the top off a defense by running deep on go-routes and posts. He’s sturdy with a good looking frame at about 5-11 and 195lbs and isn’t pushed around when he has to compete.

The thing that impressed me most is the way he has an impact in the red zone. There are several examples of him winning jump-balls and high-pointing the football with great arm extension. Despite not being the biggest, you can throw it up to him in a 1v1 battle.

His catching technique is clean, he can win on the shorter routes and he’s not just a downfield threat. As I watched the games I just kept wondering why you wouldn’t put him in the top-20. Where are the weaknesses?

At SPARQ he ran a 4.41. After a few years in college and with specific sprint training before the combine he could easily get that into the early 4.3’s. He also jumped a 38.5 inch vertical at SPARQ. He’s going to test superbly at the combine — possibly even better than Ruggs.

They might be the two to keep an eye on. Ruggs does a terrific job extending his arms to catch away from his frame and he too is an incredibly rounded wide-out and not just a sprinter. Both players are major home-run threats but they can also be incorporated into a system as potential #1 targets. DeVonta Smith also has a lot of suddenness and is extremely underrated by the media.

To cap it all off, Reagor’s interviews are great. He’s focused, interesting, passionate and determined. You can imagine teams really going for him when they get a chance to sit down and talk.

I think there’s a good chance the Seahawks will target adding a receiver with their first pick. Although their biggest need is clearly pass rush, the options are weak in the 2020 class. They might have to turn to free agency for answers there. The receiving options, however, appear to be excellent.

I’d love to be able to project Reagor to the Seahawks. I sense, however, that by the time we get into March and April he’ll have improved his stock so much he’ll be out of range. He’s underrated. He’s a fantastic talent. He’s a top-20 player for me.

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Sunday’s win against Tampa Bay highlighted the great imbalance with this team. The offense is firing on all cylinders and the defense and special teams are sputtering.

I’ve spent some time studying the numbers to see what they tell us.

The cliffs notes version of this piece is thus — the defense overall is performing on par with the worst teams in the league. However, a lot of the data points the finger directly at the defensive line. There are positives in terms of turnovers, quarterback rating and passes defended. Bradley McDougald is excelling in coverage and Jadeveon Clowney is leading a one-man pass rush.

So when you consider those positives and place them alongside the significant negatives such as conceding 6.2 yards per play and giving up the fifth most points in the league so far — it’s quite easy to connect the dots to the D-line.

That’s not a major revelation admittedly. We can all see the issues. Ziggy Ansah, sadly, looks like the defensive version of Eddie Lacy. They’re not creating any interior pressure and they’re almost entirely dependent on Clowney. With the trade deadline passing there’s practically nothing they can do about the situation until the off-season.

Two things seem inevitable at this stage. Firstly, the poor play of the D-line could easily cost the Seahawks a chance to be a serious contender at a time when Russell Wilson is playing the best season of his career. Secondly, it’s incredibly likely that they will prioritize fixing the D-line in the off-season. Don’t be surprised if they act aggressively to address this issue because it’s the biggest thing holding this team back (although not the only thing).

The Seahawks defense in 2019

The first alarming stat is they’re conceding 6.2 yards per play. That’s the fourth most YPP in the league.

Here’s the bottom ten:

Cincinnati — 6.6
Miami — 6.3
Oakland — 6.3
Seattle — 6.2
Arizona — 6.1
Detroit — 6.1
Green Bay — 6.1
New York Giants — 6.0
Baltimore — 6.0
Atlanta — 6.0

It says everything about Seattle’s defense this year that they actually improved their standing yesterday by only conceding 5.8 yards per play against the Bucs.

Stats like this can be read a number of ways, of course. Green Bay and Baltimore are also on the list and they too are winning football games. I suspect, unfortunately, that they’ll simply endure the same issues as Seattle down the line (although Baltimore were impressive against the Patriots last night).

It’s also interesting that while New England (4.3) and San Francisco (4.5) easily lead the league in YPP allowed on defense, the Jets are doing surprisingly well (5.2) as are the struggling Chicago Bears (4.9) and Denver Broncos (5.0).

However, that can arguably be answered away. The Jets aren’t struggling because of Gregg Williams’ defense. The entire franchise is a mess. Williams, to be fair, is somewhat holding up his end of the deal as one of the more successful (albeit controversial) defensive coordinators in the league. It’s the same for Denver and Vic Fangio and the Bears with their supreme defensive talent spearheaded by Khalil Mack.

You would hope the Seahawks would thrive due to the expertise of their defensive minded Head Coach who has equally enjoyed a lot of success in the NFL. It isn’t happening this year. It’s pretty remarkable that the defense is giving up a full 6.2 yards on average every time the ball is snapped. It’s unsustainable. And without their offense propping up the unit, they’d likely be in the same boat as some of the teams listed above.

They’ve also given up the fifth most points (230) and only trail the Dolphins (256), the Buccaneers (252), the Cardinals (251) and the Falcons (250). The two teams below the Seahawks are the Redskins (219) and the Giants (218). The combined record of the other teams is 10-39-1. I’m not sure anything promotes the performance of Seattle’s offense better than the fact they’re somehow 7-2 despite conceding so many points.

The Seahawks have 15 sacks. One of those was a tap on Lamar Jackson when he was already on the turf. One was the Jameis Winston ’empty-hand throw’ yesterday that for some reason went down as a Mychal Kendricks sack. There are only six teams with fewer sacks so far — Baltimore (14), Detroit (14), the Jets (13), Miami (12), Cincinnati (9) and Atlanta (7). With the exception of Baltimore (who lost their best pass rushers in the off-season and, unlike the Seahawks, didn’t spend their first round pick on a pass rusher or sign Ziggy Ansah or trade for Jadeveon Clowney), the rest are a collection of teams destined to pick in the top-10 next year.

Sacks aren’t everything of course. Pressures can be more indicative of performance. The Seahawks have 58 pressures this season, the sixth fewest in the league. Only Oakland (40), Miami (42), Cincinnati (47), Atlanta (51) and Indianapolis (54) have fewer. It gets worse though. In terms of pressure percentage per drop-back, the Seahawks are at 15.5%. That’s the second worst record in the league behind only Oakland (12.9%). In comparison, San Franciso’s pressure percentage is 31.8% and leads the league.

Considering we see Baltimore and Green Bay showing up on the same under-performing lists as Seattle, it’s worth noting that both teams are league average for pressure percentage. The Ravens are at 21% and the Packers at 21.5%. If Seattle was simply league average at creating pressure, it’d cure a lot of ills. Sadly, this isn’t the case.

Seattle has 28 QB hurries which again is in the bottom third of the league. Their percentage of hurries per drop-back is 7.5% — the seventh worst record in the league.

You might ask — why don’t they blitz more to try and create some pressure? They’ve actually blitzed 93 times — 12th most in the league. In comparison San Francisco have only blitzed 41 times, the second fewest. That’s the benefit of being able to rush with four consistently. The Seahawks aren’t sitting on their hands though. They have clearly tried to blitz. They’re not the Detroit Lions — who’ve blitzed fewer times than any other team (38) and yet have only 14 sacks and are creating no pressure.

Let’s look at individual numbers. Jadeveon Clowney has 17 pressures — the 27th most in the league. Quinton Jefferson has 12 and ranks at #50. There isn’t a single other Seahawks defensive lineman in the top-100. Rasheem Green is at #101 with seven pressures. Ziggy Ansah is at #134 with six — the same number as Carolina safety Eric Reid.

Clowney ranks at #16 for hurries with nine. Jefferson and Green have five and rank around the #50 mark. After that? The next highest is Ansah’s two hurries — good enough for #141 in the league and level with Danny Shelton.

The Seahawks are a one-man band as a pass-rushing unit. You almost feel sorry for Clowney. He’s statistically among the league leaders in pressures and hurries and has almost nothing to show for it because he’s so poorly supported.

Here’s something that might surprise you. The Seahawks have missed 54 tackles. That’s actually only middle of the road. It might not feel like it but Seattle is merely average at missing tackles when the eye test would suggest they’d be a lot worse. Mychal Kendricks has missed 15 tackles — the most in the NFL. That’s a quarter of his overall tackle attempts and the eighth highest missed tackle percentage. No other Seahawk ranks in the top-100 for missed tackle percentage. Clowney and Al Woods have missed 13% of their tackles and rank in the 130’s. Tre Flowers is fourth with 12.2% of missed tackles and McDougald has missed 11.4%.

The Seahawks have the third best turnover differential (+7) behind only New England (+17) and Pittsburgh (+11). Russell Wilson only throwing one interception has contributed a lot here. The Seahawks do rank joint 10th for interceptions though (7) and they’ve recovered nine fumbles (the second best number in the league). This is actually a positive because thanks largely to Chris Carson they’ve fumbled eight times — the third most in the NFL. It actually paints a picture that the Seahawks aren’t that bad at turning the ball over on defense. Presumably if the pass rush was better and they had more sacks and pressures, they might have even more takeaways.

Neither are the Seahawks statistically bad at defending passes. They have 39 PDEF’s so far — the ninth best record. Combine that with the turnovers and it’s quite revealing.

Bradley McDougald ranks eighth in the league for receiving yards per time targeted at only 3.8 yards. Shaquille Griffin is ranked at #41 and is giving up 5.2 yards per target. Mychal Kendricks, for all the hand-wringing over his role, is the 58th best defender in the entire league in terms of yards per target (5.8). That’s better than Landon Collins, Byron Jones, Tre’Davious White and Jaire Alexander.

Jamar Taylor is also ranked higher than Alexander at #90 with 6.4 yards per target. Tre Flowers is at #107 with 6.8 yards per target and K.J. Wright at #110 with 6.9 yards per target.

Overall, that’s a pretty good picture and it’s probably why Pete Carroll is sticking with his current plan. None of these players are being hammered in terms of yards per target. They have a top-10 defender in McDougald in this category and a top-50 player in Griffin. These stats say they’re not being exploited in coverage. They’re just not creating anywhere near enough pressure.

Also, McDougald has the third best completion percentage statistic at 36.8%. That’s better than any other safety. In comparison, Earl Thomas’ completion percentage is 50% — good enough for 25th in the league. Thomas has been targeted 14 times compared to McDougald’s 19 targets.

Again, the problem appears to be pressure and the pass rush. They’re giving up 7.5 yards per pass play — which is the fifth worst record in the league. And yet the defense has only conceded 11 passing touchdowns vs seven interceptions.

Seattle has also only conceded four +40 yard passing plays. That’s as many as San Francisco and only nine teams have fewer. They’ve given up 32 +20 yard passing plays though which is the eleventh highest. Quarterbacks have an 89.6 passer rating against the Seahawks which is only the 19th highest. You see the picture emerging here. Give the second-level defenders a bit more help and we might be surprised how they end up performing.

If the aim was to fix the run defense in 2019, it isn’t working. That is indicative again that the D-line is Seattle’s biggest problem. They’re giving up 4.7 YPC — the sixth most in the league. Strangely that’s the same mark as the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers and will offer some comfort for Seattle’s running game next week. The Seahawks have also given up 12 rushing touchdowns — the second most in the league behind only Carolina (14).

I hope this has helped shed some light on where the real issues lie. If you were wondering why they signed Josh Gordon and have reportedly looked at the possibility of adding Antonio Brown, this is why. The offense is propping up the defense. There aren’t any realistic options out there to improve the pass rush, especially with the trade deadline passing. They’re stuck with this unit and they know it. They also know how fully reliant they are on Russell Wilson. Adding weapons for him is all they can do at this stage.

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