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There are two immediate reactions I have from this game.

The first is just a crushing lack of energy at the prospect of another nine-win season, Seattle’s third in a row, with little evidence the Seahawks are driving towards a bigger status within the NFL.

The second is bitter frustration at just how badly they messed this game up. This wasn’t a loss in the manner of the 49ers, Bills and Packers games, or even the Giants debacle. Yet it’s just as irritating because so many factors contributed towards Seattle’s downfall.

I’ll expand on these two issues in reverse order.

Look at everything that went wrong, and the sheer number of different people responsible for this loss. Tre Brown being penalised for off-side then giving up a touchdown on the next play. Tariq Woolen’s coverage, awareness and effort. Byron Murphy’s ill-timed facemask penalty. Ernest Jones dropping an interception that could’ve iced the game. Geno Smith’s interceptions. Geno Smith’s sack that made it very difficult for the Seahawks to kick a game-tying field goal. The play-calling on offense.

Where do you start when all this goes wrong? People will try to pin it on one person but on reflection, so many different people contributed. That’s not a good sign for this team. They have to be cleaner than this and get out of their own way.

I do think, like most people, that the writing is on the wall for Ryan Grubb though. The predictable nature of his offense, the total inability to craft a running game despite the weekly talk of wishing to establish one, the situational decision making. Grubb will likely be replaced in the off-season. The Seahawks need someone who can deliver a proper complementary vision to Macdonald’s defense. They need someone who understands the NFL, how to call plays in this league and can get this thing back on track.

That brings me back to the first point in this article though. It can’t be the only change. The Seahawks badly need a more disruptive off-season. They’re just muddling along — adding a bit here or there but never taking any great stride forwards. They’re an uninteresting team to non-Seahawks fans. They lack stars, they aren’t taken seriously and yet they do enough every year to avoid a ‘bad’ label that would actually provoke some broader, more urgent change.

They need a transformational off-season. Without it, they’ll just carry on being a middling team that fans are happy to sell their season tickets to avoid watching in person. They’ll go on losing games at home (3-6 this season, now 16-18 since fans returned post-Covid). The franchise will continue to feel flat and stuck in a rut. It’s coasting at the moment and needs a jolt.

They’ve got to take some risks. I don’t mean ill-advised trades either. They need to consider everything and follow through with some big calls to further shape this roster and staff.

Otherwise we’ll be back here in 12 months saying the same things.

This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen

The crucible of this NFL season has had its twists and turns and now has deposited the Seahawks here: At 8-6, with playoff aspirations that seemed a lot stronger last week, coming off four straight wins and leading their division. Unfortunately, the Green Bay Packers came to town and exposed this team on a national stage as not ready for the big game.

Now, they are fighting for their playoff lives all of the sudden, and the daunting task of hosting a 12-2 Vikings team that is gunning for the top seed in the NFC looms.

Your 2024 Seattle Seahawks: Welcome to wherever you are.

That is the challenge we are facing right now. None of us have any idea of what to expect for this game today.

It appeared the defense had settled in nicely, and the rushing defense – a major issue early on – had been worked out. Then Josh Jacobs had 83 yards of offense in the first quarter alone on Sunday night. At one point, the Packers gave Jacobs eight straight touches. Then Jordan Love had a run to give Jacobs a breather, then they gave it right back to Jacobs for a touchdown.

The passing defense had developed a reputation for coverage. They got repeatedly burned for big plays and even bigger penalties.

The offensive line had been moving towards league-average status, a massive improvement from their early-season play. Then the Packers – one of the weaker pass-rushing teams this season – sacked the Seahawks quarterbacks seven times and recorded fifteen pressures for about a 35% rate.

A pessimist would say all the progress the team has made has been undone and the team should start focusing on 2025.

An optimist would point out that two of the Seahawks’ more embarrassing losses (Week 6 against San Francisco and Week 9 against the Rams) were followed by two of their best games of the season (going to Atlanta and soundly beating the Falcons, and a trip to San Francisco and a gutty win against the Niners). The pendulum can swing the other way just as easily.

How can the Seahawks make the optimist’s view come true?

Do Not Allow Mistakes to Dictate the Game

This one is obvious but the chance it will make or break the Seahawks today is very, very high. Why?

The Vikings are second in the NFL in takeaways this season. They are very consistent in taking the ball away from the opposing offense. How consistent? They have a takeaway in every single game they have played this season. Forcing turnovers has been the rule, rather than the exception.

It is no wonder they are 12-2 and their offense is thriving. The defense regularly gives them the ball back.

However, making mistakes is one thing. It is a whole other matter for the team to allow the Vikings to take control of the game by compounding the damage. It becomes a force multiplier if the defense cannot hold the Viking offense to a field goal or force a punt. Or by the offense to respond decisively in order to counter the blowback from a mistake.

Case in point: Two weeks ago, the Falcons came to Minnesota and played the Vikings very, very well through three quarters. Kirk Cousins had thrown an interception early in the second quarter but the Falcons defense forced the Vikings to punt with a three & out. The only damage was a missed opportunity and the offense was pushed back about 27 net yards.

After three quarters, the game was tied 21-21. The Falcons had picked up nearly 400 yards of offense, nicely balanced between 138 yards rushing and 257 yards passing. The Vikings had a game on their hands.

Then the wheels fell off for Atlanta.

Jordan Addison burned Clark Phillips for a large gain and then caught a laser by Darnold for a touchdown to make it 28-21.

At the kickoff, Ray-Ray McLoud fumbled the return and the Vikings recovered and scored. 35-21.

On the next drive, Kirk Cousins drove them to just outside the Red Zone but threw an interception at the 2-yard line. The Vikings scored again on the drive making it 42-21 and that was the game.

The Seahawks simply cannot afford to make critical mistakes. They have been a regular feature of their losses (and even some of their wins – the Jets game for instance).

The process begins with running the ball more. Last week, they averaged 5 yards per carry against the Packers. But they only had 16 runs, and two of those were quarterback scrambles, so in reality they only called for the offense to run 14 times.

That is both bad and easy to fix. The Vikings may have one of the NFL’s best run defenses, but the Seahawks need to commit to running the ball and playing the game on their terms.

The other solution is to game plan for the root cause of the Vikings’ turnovers: Brian Flores’ great use of blitzers and packages to disrupt the quarterback.

The Vikings lead the league in blitzing at 38.9%, and as a result weigh in at 26.3% pressure, good for fourth in the NFL.

How does Geno Smith fare against being blitzed? It is a mixed bag. He completes over 71% of his throws for a 9.1 yards per attempt and picks up a first down about 42% of the time. But he also has only two touchdowns versus four interceptions, and has been sacked twelve times.

To combat this ultra-aggressive defense, the Seahawks need to return to the balanced game plan they deployed so effectively in their Week Fourteen win over the Cardinals: make Smith a quick distributor of the ball and keep the offense on schedule with short passes complemented by timely running. The Seahawks executed screen passes to defeat blitzing and pressure masterfully. Smith was patient and quickly delivered the ball all over the field. As a result, he was not sacked – the only game this year that was true – and only was pressured four times.

Ryan Grubb has to make the game easier for Smith, taking away the ‘good process poor result’ type of play that has seemed to consistently risen its ugly head this season.

I mention patience. A rhythm needs to be established to give Smith some room to work. If they can train the defense to constantly react to the short pass, there will be very critical big-time passing opportunities when timed out well.

Have a Balanced Game on Defense

The Vikings offense has been regularly explosive this season, led by Sam Darnold and his surprising accuracy and grace under pressure. Aaron Jones adds balance to the team in the running game and opens spaces for Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson to exploit.

Like the offense, the defense needs to be patient and pick their spots. Blitzing can be very effective against Darnold, but it leaves one or more of those receiving monsters in single coverage. Darnold throws for 66% of completions with eight touchdowns against one interception when blitzed. However, he is sacked a high number of times, clocking in at over 16%. The game may be won or lost on when the Seahawks time up their blitzing and how effective it is.

The front four must deliver pressure to the quarterback without regular blitzing help, which is an achievable goal. Darnold has been blitzed only 99 times this season, putting him in the bottom third of quarterbacks. However, he is facing pressure on 25.6% of snaps, placing him in the top five. The defense has to exploit this weakness for all it is worth today.

I mentioned patience. A good chunk of their game plan includes taking the running game away from the Vikings as a resource. Aaron Jones runs primarily between the tackles and it is likely the Vikings watched Josh Jones run so effectively there last Sunday and plan to make that a central part of their offense today.

For their faults in pass protection, the Vikings Offensive Line is adequate in run blocking, giving Jones 2.5 yards before contact in the running game (as a reference point, this is about league average. Zach Charbonnet and Ken Walker are at a poor 1.8 and 1.7 yards before contact this year).

A return to controlling the run game on defense is in order. The line must keep linebackers Ernest Jones and Tyice Knight clean, so they can attack the runner. Stopping or slowing him puts the game on Darnold’s shoulders.

Making Darnold throw to advance the ball opens him up to pressures and mistakes. The backfield (especially Riq Woolen) need to rebound from a very poor showing against the Packers. That critical half-beat of coverage needed to sack the quarterback or making him throw the ball away or check down is an absolute essential ingredient to keeping this offense in check.

I was listening to Brock & Salk yesterday, where the subject of Seattle’s quarterback future came up. Salk mentioned he’d been having a conversation with Gee Scott, who was arguing that Geno Smith ‘made himself a ton of money’ on Sunday after Sam Howell struggled badly against the Packers.

Quite rightly, Salk called it out as a lazy take. I wanted to share my own thoughts on why Salk is right.

Firstly, it’s not as if the Seahawks were under the impression that Howell was a starter in waiting and now they’ve been dealt a bitter blow because he struggled in relief. Nobody in the front office was watching that game, mouth ajar, shocked by what they were witnessing.

Truth be told, they already knew he wasn’t good enough. They saw it in training camp. They saw it when he threw 21 interceptions last season and gave up 65 sacks. They saw it when he fell to the fifth round in 2022, with the Seahawks opting to pass on him in round four, despite needing a quarterback.

On the day they traded for him, John Schneider said in an interview he was coming to be the backup. He never said that about Drew Lock, who was described as one of ‘two #1 quarterbacks on the roster’ instead. The move for Howell was likely inspired by Lock’s decision to sign for the Giants. Schneider, Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb all talked up Lock in quite an exaggerated way before his decision, in an apparent attempt to convince him to stay. When he didn’t, they had to call an audible.

The Seahawks brought in Howell because they needed a cheap backup and clearly felt Howell was better than the limited options remaining on the open market. His cap-hit was a key factor. Howell is costing just $985,000 this year. In comparison, Carson Wentz is costing the Chiefs $2.35m to be Patrick Mahomes’ backup. Joe Flacco is costing the Colts $5m.

They also correctly identified there’d be a rush on quarterbacks in the draft, with a big gap between the first rounders and the rest, meaning they probably weren’t going to be able to select a player. Howell was a cheap backup on a rookie contract with some playing experience. It was a low-level shot to nothing.

Most backup quarterbacks are bad. Howell is no different. I wasn’t a fan of the compensation given up for him but it appears there was enough of a market for a bidding war to break out, leading to the Seahawks swapping a third rounder for a fourth. It wasn’t a back-breaking deal. The fact they traded down from pick #78 to #102 and then to #121 suggests they weren’t crazy about the value in the late third round and early fourth anyway.

That Howell struggled badly on Sunday is simply confirmation that he isn’t good enough. Nothing more, nothing less. It doesn’t mean that Geno Smith is suddenly viewed in a more positive light, because he happens to be superior to Howell — something we already knew.

I’ve seen it suggested in several places that people might ‘appreciate’ Geno Smith more now that we’ve seen Howell in the offense. Again, I don’t think it makes any difference. I doubt Howell would thrive if he was playing behind the 2014 Dallas Cowboys offensive line with peak Dez Bryant to throw to. He is what he is — a cheap backup. Smith is a far better player, something I imagine 99% of fans have long embraced.

A lot of the people saying Smith should receive, or is now more likely to receive, a big extension in the off-season, are the same people who thought he might be franchise-tagged in 2023, or receive a contract of a similar annual amount. He didn’t. His market was limited, perhaps even limited to just the Seahawks. He returned on a team-friendly arrangement with annual ‘outs’.

Since his fantastic hot streak to begin the 2022 season, ending after the game in Munich, he’s thrown 49 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. Seattle’s record since the Germany game is only 20-19.

I appreciate the challenges of quarterbacking the current-day Seahawks but I also think, eventually, you have to admit that throwing only three more touchdowns than a struggling Will Levis this season — despite playing three more games — isn’t great. Neither is being third in the league for interceptions, including sharing the lead for picks thrown into the end zone with Jameis Winston. Smith is 24th in the NFL for QBR and 19th for quarterback rating.

According to Hugh Millen on KJR, in the last two seasons, there are 49 quarterbacks with 200 pass attempts in the NFL. His completion percentage among those 49 quarterbacks in the red zone ranks 46th. His passer rating ranks 47th. Millen described a ‘success rate’ for passes on each subsequent down in the red zone. Smith ranked 44th. On interceptions per attempt, he ranked 44th and for pure interceptions he’s 49th. He shares company with the likes of Winston, Levis, Kenny Pickett and Daniel Jones on these lists.

For this season alone, he ranks 32nd out of 34 qualifying quarterbacks for passer rating in the red zone. He ranks 34th for interceptions. His touchdown to interception rate ranks 33rd. His completion percentage ranks 26th.

Surely these numbers have to be taken into account when considering the likelihood of a very expensive new contract? Certainly more than Smith getting injured and his backup struggling.

One of the positive arguments in favour of Smith has been his PFF grade, where he is ranked eighth at quarterback. I’d love to understand their grading. Smith has an 83.3 total grade for his performance this year. However, in not one single game has he received a grade at or higher than 83.3. His highest grade in a game so far was an 83.1 against New England. That was his only game graded in the 80’s. So how does he get an overall 83.3 grade?

The average of his game-by-game grading is a 72.6. Clearly PFF doesn’t use the average for a cumulative season grade. The confusing nature as to how a player can only grade in the 80’s once all season yet get an 83.3 total grade for the year, 10 full points higher than his average, makes me sceptical.

People often cite the bad offensive line as a major roadblock to more success for Geno Smith. According to ESPN, the Seahawks rank 17th for pass block win rate.

The Dolphins rank 20th, in a similar range. Tua Tagovailoa has had a difficult season. He’s played four fewer games than Smith yet has thrown four more touchdowns, is ranked 13th for QBR and ninth for quarterback rating. The Bengals are ranked an abysmal 29th. Joe Burrow is third in the NFL for QBR and quarterback rating and leads the league in touchdowns. This is why Burrow is considered an elite player. But it shows Smith’s lack of touchdowns and high number of picks isn’t due to an impossible environment.

Smith’s average ‘time to throw’ is 2.82 seconds according to PFF. That places him 16th in the NFL. Again, middle of the pack. It’s the exact same rate as Josh Allen. Tagovailoa has the least amount of time to throw in the league at 2.31 seconds and yet, as noted, he has more touchdowns and a superior QBR and quarterback rating in fewer games.

It should also be noted that Smith has faced the most pressures among qualifying quarterbacks, despite these numbers. That’s in part due to Stone Forsyth giving up 35 pressure alone in just six games (seventh most in the NFL for the season). He hasn’t played since week six. Mike Jerrell also gave up 14 pressures in four games. He hasn’t played since week 11.

None of the above, to me, suggests the league’s position on Smith is going to have changed considerably now that he’s 18 months older. I suspect his market is no different than it was coming off the best year of his career in 2022. It may even be slightly weaker given his age.

I can already hear the ‘Geno hater’ accusations building, so let me reiterate my stance on Smith. I think he’s a perfectly good bridge option. I don’t want him rushed out of the door. I appreciate his excellent physical talent and that there are far worse quarterbacks currently in the NFL. I think he’s handled a difficult situation well this year, playing a key role in Seattle’s eight wins so far. The Seahawks can do far worse than Smith and definitely shouldn’t be switching to someone else for the sake of it.

I also think it’s pretty hard to be that excited about a bridge quarterback when you’re not actually bridging to anything. I don’t think Smith is a long-term solution for Seattle. I think he does some things very well but if we’re being honest, he also does some things that prevent him from being among the better quarterbacks in the NFL — as we’ve seen with his red zone play over the last two seasons.

In an ideal world Seattle would’ve drafted a young quarterback this year or in 2023 and that player would be developing in the background — as Green Bay did with Jordan Love. That hasn’t happened. I don’t blame the Seahawks, they’ve not passed on any quarterback I wish was in Seattle. But they don’t have a clear plan at the position.

These are the questions for me. Do the Seahawks want to commit a significant guaranteed contract to Geno Smith, paying him a handsome annual salary? Is there a compromise deal that suits both parties? Are there other players the Seahawks want to pursue? Is there anyone in the draft they can add in 2025 to finally create the bridge arrangement?

Let’s go through these one by one.

Do the Seahawks want to commit a significant guaranteed contract to Geno Smith, paying him a handsome annual salary? I don’t think Schneider is interested in doing that, based on what happened and what he said in the last off-season. I think the Seahawks would prefer to go year-to-year and are open-minded about things.

Is there a compromise deal that suits both parties? This remains the most likely option. There could be some brinkmanship in negotiations from both sides but ultimately, they might need each other. A contract that pays more, retains a year-to-year nature but doesn’t force any long-term commitment or massive increase in cost could be the best option.

Are there other players the Seahawks want to pursue? We’ve talked about Sam Darnold and why Schneider might have interest in him. There aren’t many alternatives. That’s why a compromise might be most likely, unless they want to aggressively compete for Darnold who looks set to get a Baker Mayfield-style contract in the off-season. If such a deal is structured the same way, a low first-year cap hit ($7-8m) and an out after year two could be appealing.

Is there anyone in the draft they can add in 2025 to finally create the bridge arrangement? In the last seven days, Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar both announced they won’t be entering the 2025 draft. Neither player was close to a flawless prospect but they had intriguing traits that you could easily imagine would appeal to Schneider. The quarterback class now looks especially thin. There’s a distinct possibility the 2025 draft will come and go and once again, the Seahawks won’t draft a quarterback. Schneider seemed to at least have some interest in Quinn Ewers but after a disappointing 2024, that might’ve changed.

So where does this leave us? Sadly, without a particularly attractive outlook. The most likely scenario is a short extension with Smith that increases his average earning per year but also retains an annual out for the Seahawks and reduces his 2025 cap hit. Not being able to draft a future potential starter, though, means an increasing likelihood of kicking the long-term can down the road again.

That’s a problem, at least in my eyes. The longer you wait, the benefit of Smith as the bridge will eventually run out. He’s getting older. This is the second season in a row where he’s been hurt late in the season.

Further to this, in the last four seasons, the Seahawks are 33-33 if you include the San Francisco playoff defeat in 2022. I appreciate that if they can fix the offensive line and correct some other issues within the team, they’ll have a better chance of success. But even then, they’ve been a nine-win team the last two years and might be heading that way again. They’re in danger of becoming a consistent middle-ground team — and I’m not sure you can break out of that without cost-effective brilliance at quarterback. It’s not the only way but it usually is.

Improvements to the offensive line in the off-season will definitely help the cause. I still think more is needed to make this team a serious contender, including at quarterback. Fans can justifiably be underwhelmed with the situation when you consider the choices are a continuation of what has only taken the Seahawks to nine wins, perhaps with the promise of trying to finally fix the offensive line. But what are the options to get significantly better?

It’s tough to generate enthusiasm for the future when the situation is considered this way. I wish I had a more positive outlook to present. Maybe they can make the defense even better and create a more balanced, competent offense and win that way? Like I said, maybe. Therefore, should we actually consider an off-season where defensive additions, alongside the O-line, are more important?

Yet nothing about Sunday means Geno Smith is more likely to get paid a whopping new contract, just because Sam Howell struggled. It’s hard to work out why that would be justified anyway, why they’d be obliged to, or how it would make the Seahawks any better in the short or long term.

The Pittsburgh game was the final straw. Battered at home, with Steelers fans belting out a chorus in your stadium. That was the moment it became clear the Pete Carroll era would conclude at the end of the 2023 season.

A year on and despite changing the whole staff and sections of the roster, the Seahawks have had four similar home experiences. They aren’t carbon copies. The Steelers ran the ball down Seattle’s throat despite having Mason Rudolph propping up the quarterback position. The defense this year is in a much better place than it was 12 months ago.

Even so, the Giants (!!!), 49ers, Bills and Packers have all marched into Seattle and delivered a whooping. The Seahawks are staring at another probable 9-8 season for a third year in a row. If Sam Howell has to finish the season as the starting quarterback, 8-9 is very possible.

The question is, how willing are the Seahawks to stare this situation down and be sufficiently active to fix the problems?

I’m not suggesting they’ve been inactive. Firing Carroll was a franchise-altering move. They’ve adjusted the roster effectively during the season to enable the defense to take a big step forward, even if some issues still remain.

More is required though. They need to retain an aggressive mindset. They can’t have a ‘move the chairs around’ off-season, otherwise they’re going to be stuck in the 9-8 range.

We’ve seen how far behind the Packers and Bills they are. We saw the 49ers, when they still had a semblance of health, handle the Seahawks in the first game between the two teams.

They are not close to being a serious contender. Nobody who watched that game last night is going to take the Seahawks seriously. They will be an afterthought in the national discussion and rightly so. If they do make the playoffs, they’ll be seen as a traffic cone for a superior team to drive around.

As a franchise we’re all sat here laughing at the 49ers after their years of NFC domination has come to an end because of injuries. We question how good the Rams actually are, as they out-gun the Bills in a way Seattle can only dream of.

Forget them. Honesty and an inward looking focus is required.

Everyone can see it starts with Seattle’s offensive line but it doesn’t end there. They need three new interior starters. They’ve been highly aggressive to fix aspects of the defensive line, to their credit. Two second round picks on Boye Mafe and Derick Hall, the #16 pick on Byron Murphy, trading a haul to rent Leonard Williams before paying him a massive extension, paying Uchenna Nwosu, bringing in veterans Jarran Reed and Johnathan Hankins.

They need that same energy for the other side of the ball in the upcoming off-season and anything less will be unacceptable. The Seahawks are long beyond the afforded time to try and build an O-line slowly. The pressure should be on. After failing to build a good line over three drafts, to the point that zero positions currently feel secure, they now have to go out and make things happen.

John Schneider and his staff may well turn around and say, ‘go on then, how do we do that?’ Nobody disputes that it is difficult to build a competent offensive line. Very few teams have pulled it off. Yet the Seahawks have been especially poor over the years in this area and time has run out for this particular GM and front office to play the long game. They have to put a line on the field that is not an abject disaster.

The Packers last night had a seventh round pick at left tackle, two second round blog favourites at left guard and center, a third rounder at right guard and a fourth round blog favourite at right tackle. They gave up zero sacks. They’ve enabled Josh Jacobs to have a good season, while Jordan Love is having a decent year too.

Schneider is a Ron Wolf protégé. I’ve spoken frequently to people who worked with Wolf and they all say the same thing — Wolf preached the importance of the trenches first and foremost. That’s his core philosophy. How can it be that Schneider, from the Green Bay school of scouting, cannot get close to addressing an issue that has dogged this team for years?

Schneider, contrary to what his biggest detractors will say, is not a bad GM. Far from it. But he and the Seahawks on the whole — including scouts and coaches — have done a really bad job on the offensive line for too long. He needs to fix this immediately and it can’t be with the next Laken Tomlinson, B.J. Finney, Bradley Sowell, Brandon Shell or Cedric Obguehi. They can’t afford to spend a third round pick in 2025 on a guard who ends up being a third stringer. Solutions are required.

Meanwhile, let’s have an open and honest conversation about Charles Cross. He hasn’t played well all year. It’s been assumed by too many people that he is the one position that is sorted on the line. He is still not strong enough and the same issues we saw at Mississippi State are showing up in year three of his NFL career.

Cross has now given up the second most pressures in the league among offensive tackles, behind only New England’s struggling Demontrey Jacobs. He’s overtaken Jacobs to lead the NFL in hurries conceded. He’s given up five sacks in his last five games. He has not taken a step forward this season.

Let’s be clear though — this isn’t just an offensive line problem. It’s a big problem, obviously, one that has lingered for far too long. But it’s not the only problem.

This kind of performance takes a village:

Tonight the Seahawks:

– had under 250 yards of offense
– had multiple turnovers
– took 7+ sacks
– had 100+ penalty yards

The last NFL team to do that in a home game was the Jets on October 4, 1987 – a game played with replacement players during the strike. pic.twitter.com/LPLmyvZXZr

— OptaSTATS (@OptaSTATS) December 16, 2024

The brilliant Brady Henderson wrote an article on Sunday discussing whether Ryan Grubb ‘was past his first-year growing pains’:

Over the first nine games, Seattle had the NFL’s second-lowest designed rush rate at 31.2%. Over the last four games, they’re 14th in that metric 39.9%. That timeframe has also coincided with a decrease in their shotgun percentage, a staple of college offenses that Grubb leaned heavily on out of the gates. The Seahawks have been in shotgun on 68.5% of their plays (19th) over the last four games, down from 80.8% (fourth) before the bye.

Here’s the problem. The Seahawks are a NFL franchise. The reason most teams don’t appoint coaches who’ve never worked in the NFL before is because there will be a steep learning curve. This isn’t NFL Europe where players and coaches get time to figure things out. It’s the elite level of the sport.

I understand why the Seahawks took a chance on Grubb. He was part of an exciting, attractive Washington team that made the most out of a top-10 pick at quarterback, the best offensive line in the NCAA last season and three NFL receivers (including another top-10 pick).

They didn’t have a great pool of candidates to pick from. They were late in the hiring cycle to speak to offensive coordinators. If it was going to come down to people like Chip Kelly, Eric Bieniemy, Grubb and Tanner Engstrand (who has never called plays in his career), there’s no obvious home-run appointment. They took a chance and fair play for that. I won’t criticise the decision.

However, the learning curve just seems too steep at this point. The Seahawks do not appear to have a consistent plan of action, they are clearly incapable of finding ways to make life a little bit easier for the struggling offensive line, they are not making the most of their weapons apart from Jaxson Smith-Njigba and their play-calling is confusing to the point of frustration.

Mookie Alexander breaks it down perfectly here:

Play-action passing was once again scarcely used. Grubb loves half-field reads with route concepts 10-15 yards down the field on 3rd and short, which is just asinine without safety valves to get the ball out quickly. He won’t commit to a run game even when there are signs of success. There was a stretch of 19 consecutive passes called from Geno’s final drive until the Zach Charbonnet touchdown. Seriously?

And there’s this from Griffin Sturgeon:

one reason the #Seahawks are so bad at play action is because they play fake off of run actions they never use when it's an actual run. The LBs call bullshit and get into their drops before the QB and RB even mesh.

batman begin

— over zone y (emotionally rugged) (@cmikesspinmove) December 3, 2024

The camera often panned to Mike Macdonald during offensive drives last night looking confused by what he was seeing. That’s been a common sight.

I just don’t think this is working. I’m speculating but I don’t think Macdonald thinks it’s working either. I don’t think his vision and philosophy for the broader team is being established. It’s the NFL. You don’t get to practise being a coordinator. The Seahawks need someone, especially with a defensive-minded Head Coach, who doesn’t need a year or two to get into the groove — with no actual guarantee they’ll reach the promise land.

I appreciate this is hard. Ben Johnson’s don’t grow on trees. Candidates who were trendy a year ago, like Bobby Slowik, have not had great seasons. But increasingly this feels like the Seahawks attempted a three-pointer last off-season and it bounced off the rim. Maybe it’s time to find someone who can get an easy lay-up and just establish a level of competent, consistent offense?

Changes are inevitable to the staff as we’ve talked about before. Macdonald didn’t bring a bunch of guys with him. This was a team of strangers thrown together. Adjustments will be made in the off-season, it’s just a question of who stays, who goes and who comes in.

Finally, the Seahawks also need a proper plan at quarterback.

This isn’t some ‘Geno Smith is terrible’ argument or anything like that. He has always been a decent bridge to whatever was next post-Russell Wilson era. There are far worse quarterbacks starting in the NFL.

As we keep saying though, the Seahawks have a bridge quarterback without anything to actually bridge to. He isn’t the long-term option, despite the protestations of some online. He’ll be 35 next season.

Smith has good aspects of his game — including impressive physical qualities and an aggressive nature that serves him well. However, we can’t just ignore how bad he has been for two years in the red zone. He’s 22nd in the league for touchdowns (14) yet third in the league for interceptions (12). His QBR of 52.8 ranks 23rd and his quarterback rating of 89.9 ranks 19th.

The Seahawks shouldn’t just ‘get rid’ of Geno Smith for the sake of it and go with someone like Howell who, to put it bluntly, appears to have no long-term future in the league. They can’t just keep muddling along though, kicking the can down the road with Smith as the starter while not seriously addressing the longer-term future.

I think they have two options. Upgrade in the veteran market and/or draft someone to develop behind Smith so there’s actually a progression plan in place. At the moment it just feels like the Seahawks are going year-to-year with no actual direction to contention, in part because the quarterback position isn’t stable beyond the current season.

I don’t know for sure that Sam Darnold is superior to Smith but the reality is he has twice as many touchdowns this year having played a game fewer, despite being sacked the same amount of times going into week 15. His PFF grade, QBR and QB rating are superior and he’s seven years younger.

If he’s available on a Baker Mayfield type deal, they have to at least consider it — probably alongside promoting Jake Peetz to offensive coordinator to retain the McVay offense he is clearly comfortable in. If you fear Darnold is a product of Kevin O’Connell’s talent as a coach, rather than a product of simply no longer playing for the Jets or Panthers, this would at least provide some basis for hope that his success would transfer to Seattle.

It’s not a perfect plan but it’s a plan. The low year-one cap-hit would free up some money to spend on the offensive line. Of course, with this looking like a limited 2025 quarterback class, Darnold’s earning potential might go through the roof. He might be too expensive.

If he isn’t an option or if you’d simply prefer to roll with Smith, then selecting a quarterback in the fourth draft since the Wilson trade has to be a critical aim. Who though? It’s been announced today that Drew Allar is returning to Penn State next season. Who are you taking that could realistically be seen as a viable starter for the future?

I thought Allar and Garrett Nussmeier would appeal to Schneider but both are returning to college football. I’ve thought in the past that he’d be attracted to Quinn Ewers’ natural talent but that’s a harder sell now given the way he’s played in 2024.

As with the offensive line though, eventually you get to a point where you start to think, come on now. Is a fourth season of Geno Smith accompanied by Drew Lock or Sam Howell any different really that consistently failing to properly address the offensive line? If both areas really are impossible to rectify, should we just pause any excitement or ambition for the franchise indefinitely? Don’t they have to try different things? Speculate to accumulate a little? The perfect situation may never arrive.

For what it’s worth, I think they will make changes. To the staff. At quarterback. To the line. It’s just a question of how it looks. I wouldn’t be shocked if we see Peetz at OC, Darnold at QB and high picks used on the offensive line. I don’t anticipate mere tweaks. Not after experiencing nights like last night. Not after the Seahawks showed they were willing to make the big call by firing Carroll.

I hope I’m right, too. The franchise needs another jolt. Mike Macdonald has got the defense playing at a competitive level, even if it’s not the finished product. This off-season, an aggressive approach to the offense is needed — including moves on the offensive line, coaching staff and at quarterback.

For the first time in ages, it felt like Seahawks fans were ready and energised for a big game.

The Packers on Prime Time. A chance to get a statement win. Anticipation had been building all week. Sunday dragged, waiting for kick-off.

Then it began. And in the first half the Seahawks had no energy, no juice, no intensity, no physical or schematic answers and were pushed around at home, again.

Matt LaFleur was asked at half-time , “What’s working?”

His reply? “Everything.”

What a let down. You come away from a game like this realising that the Seahawks are still a long way away. It’s impossible to dream about future Championship glory after that. All you can think about is how easy you are to play against for good teams.

The defense offered no resistance early on and although they somewhat righted the ship as the game went on, the defensive backs were a mess — giving up big plays, constantly letting receivers get in behind and making mistakes. Nobody was more guilty of this than Riq Woolen, who had the kind of sloppy, disastrous performance that makes you realise that for all of his physical talent, he’s always one game away from being a liability.

The offensive line was moved too easily. When will we get a serious discussion about Charles Cross not actually playing well for most of the season? Sataoa Laumea struggled. Olu Oluwatimi went off injured. Laken Tomlinson was Laken Tomlinson. Rinse and repeat. Multiple new starters are needed. Faith that they’ll address this sufficiently has never been lower. I guess at least Jalen Sundell was OK.

Geno Smith started off by absorbing sacks on third down. Whether it’s awareness and feel or Ryan Grubb’s play-calling — you should never have the quarterback holding the ball in the pocket on 3rd and 2. Of course, it doesn’t help on 2nd and short when AJ Barner couldn’t even be bothered to cut across and block the edge.

Then more red zone woes. Smith nearly threw a pick with 3:07 in the second quarter. On the very next play, he did throw a pick. Both throws were awful. Per Brady Henderson and ESPN Research, that was Smith’s fourth interception of the season on a throw into the end zone, tied with Jameis Winston for most in the NFL.

He picked up a knee injury in the second half, giving us a chance to witness a terrible Sam Howell cameo.

The Seahawks need to build an O-line. The Seahawks need to find a true difference maker at quarterback who can elevate on days when other things don’t work (including the O-line). Neither of these holes are easy to fill but fill them they, somehow, must.

Then there’s the homefield disadvantage, with the Seahawks falling to 3-5 for the season at Lumen Field amid a backdrop of loud ‘Go Pack Go’ chants. The worst thing is, they don’t just lose at home. They get humiliated. The Giants, 49ers, Bills and now Packers have embarrassed the Seahawks in their own backyard. Or they embarrassed themselves. Either way, nothing disillusions you more about this franchise than watching the home team get their backsides handed to them regularly at home with loads of away fans roaring the opponent on.

The franchise really needs to sort out a proper ticket exchange for fans wishing to sell their seats to other home fans, rather than away supporters. Yet it’s also on the team to play far better. Ownership and the people running the franchise have to take a 16-17 home record since fans returned from the Covid lockdown seriously. Something isn’t right.

A performance like this kills any energy for the season. Does anyone really care to see a repeat of this in the playoffs? Does anyone even expect the Seahawks to make the post-season on this evidence?

It felt like we were watching the end of the Pete Carroll era again. This felt as demoralising as the Steelers game last year. How many more times are we going to have to say that?

A third consecutive 9-8 season seems likely. That is what the Seahawks are. How many more years of 9-8 is necessary before they actually, you know, get better?

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

The crucible of the fourth quarter has arrived and the Seahawks could not be better positioned to make the most of it at 8-5 with a division lead.

A four-game winning streak fueled by the defense we dreamed of when Pete Carroll was fired and Mike Macdonald was hired has supercharged the optimism in this team.

Now comes their toughest test yet: The Green Bay Packers at 9-4 are playing an extremely effective brand of football. They are 8-1 outside their division, their only loss coming in Brazil against the Eagles to open the season.

The Packers continue to be one of the NFL’s best teams at big-ticket free agent spending, with Josh Jacobs leading a great rushing attack and Xavier McKinney leading the NFL with seven interceptions and adding a sack for good measure.

The good news is Green Bay has not won in Seattle since 2008. Charlie Frye was the Seahawks’ quarterback for that one, Olindo Mare was their kicker and Mike Holmgren’s coaching career was winding down. The Packers are 0-4 since.

How can the Seahawks make it 5 in a row?

Win the First Downs and the First Quarter

This is a tall order. The Packers are the NFL’s #4 offense in First Quarter scoring and the #2 defense. How are they that good? Control.

Their offense has run 210 plays in the opening quarter so far this season. The defense has faced only 138. They are running the ball and keeping it out of their opponents’ hands. It is by far their best quarter in rushing, as they are gaining an impressive 5.5 yards per carry and have 38 rushing first downs.

On first downs? Overall, the Packers are gaining 5.91 yards per play – far better than the league average of 5.51. Their running game is at its best on first downs as well.

This allows them to in effect set the game script. In their current 3-1 stretch, Jordan Love has not had to throw the ball 30 times in a game. He is throwing for 67% completions, has six touchdowns against only one interception and has only been sacked four times. When they get their running game fired up, 8–9-minute drives are normal. The defense is rested, Love just has to keep the game under control and their margin of victory goes way up.

The Lions disrupted the script last week by only allowing Josh Jacobs to touch the ball three times in the first quarter. They took a lead and the Packers tied it in the second quarter with a Jacobs-heavy drive where he had eight touches.

Indeed, the Packers’ four losses were among Jacobs’ lowest utilized games. Jacobs must be contained as a runner. Where does Jacobs run? Between the tackles. I don’t think I need to remind Seahawks fans what happens when Jacobs is allowed to run up the middle.

This might be where the game is won or lost. Right up front, in the trenches. It will be a lunchpail kind of day that requires sound play. Jacobs is right behind Derrick Henry with 26 broken tackles already this season. His best attribute might be fighting through contact.

The Seahawks’ front lines are linebackers are gaining accolades and confidence by the week. Leonard Williams is leading the way, but Byron Murphy is doing the dirty work and Ernest Jones and Tyrice Knight are beneficiaries of being kept clean.

An X-factor for this game: Uchenna Nwosu has always been one of the defense’s best at stopping the run. He had a warmup game last week. If he is ready for more and can play to his former standard, he could have a profound impact on this one.

If they can put more of the game in Jordan Love’s hands, they will be more effective. Love has struggled when blitzed or pressured this season. The defense may not create a game-changing play, but taking the offense out of its rhythm and comfort zone goes a long, long way towards winning the game.

Attack the Middle of the Field on Offense

This is a profound weakness for the Packer defense:

The @packers defense has allowed 174 completion over the middle of the field (30th in the NFL) and given up 10 TD in that same area (only 6 teams have allowed more)

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 11, 2024

Their linebackers and safeties are not great in coverage. Jaire Alexander is out for the game.

The Seahawks need to exploit this weakness liberally. Jaxon Smith-Njigba and D.K. Metcalf need to be running crossing routes all day long. Noah Fant needs a liberal amount of targets.

How do the Seahawks keep Geno Smith clean? Two ways. Just like last week, getting him routes and checkdowns that help him make quick-thinking decisions goes a long way. When the Seahawks make the game easier for him, he is far more effective.

The second is understanding that the Packer pass rush is not invincible. They are among the league’s lower blitzing teams, and are not winning much in their standard sets. If the Seahawks can get these quick passes out, it can lull the defense to sleep a little and set the stage for some properly timed deep shots.

What about the running game?

Same area of the field. Attack the middle.

Have a look at David Montgomery’s run chart from the Lions’ victory in Week Nine:

That is a whole lot of running right up the gut with toughness and grit.

If the Seahawks can capitalize on their newfound confidence in the running game (featuring some more of those great Sataoa Lumea pulling plays to deliver a spring block for Zach Charbonnet and Kenny McIntosh), the Seahawks can flip the script and play the game on their terms rather than chasing the Packers.

Round one

#1 Las Vegas — Shedeur Sanders (QB, Colorado)
Tom Telesco has always been a ‘best player available’ GM. For that reason, he might stick to his guns and select Mason Graham or Travis Hunter and target someone like Sam Darnold at quarterback instead. However, he could be mandated to take a quarterback here. Deion Sanders will have a big say and he and his son are said to have spent considerable time studying Tom Brady, now part-owner of the Raiders, in preparation for his NFL career. I’m not sure Shedeur warrants the #1 pick but I can imagine an arrangement where ‘Coach Prime’ and Brady work to create an environment which would satisfy all parties.

#2 NY Giants — Travis Hunter (WR/CB, Colorado)
The Giants don’t force a quarterback here because nobody warrants the pick and instead they sign Sam Darnold to a three-year contract. They look to combine a Baker Mayfield-style addition with a younger QB later on. That enables them to go for Hunter, who can be developed as a receiver or cornerback.

#3 New England — Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
For me he’s the pound-for-pound best player in the draft.

#4 Carolina — Abdul Carter (DE/LB, Penn State)
He’s had a great year and teams will wonder if he can emulate another former Penn State star in Micah Parsons.

#5 Jacksonville — Will Johnson (CB, Michigan)
He’s had an injury plagued season but Johnson plays a premium position, he’s exceptionally talented and supposedly has top marks for character.

#6 Tennessee — Luther Burden (WR, Missouri)
Although he’s not been utilised fully in Mizzou’s offense, Burden has incredible talent and was said to be extremely highly rated by NFL teams over the summer.

#7 NY Jets — Tetairoa McMillan (WR, Arizona)
McMillan’s admitted he probably won’t test as well as some might think but he just shows so much natural skill on tape.

#8 Cleveland — Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
At some point early in round one, someone will select Jeanty. He’s too good.

#9 Chicago — Josh Simmons (T, Ohio State)
The best pure left tackle eligible for the draft. If the Bears want Caleb Williams to be a success it starts with crafting a better offensive line.

#10 New Orleans — Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
Walker has been the most impactful and consistent player on Georgia’s defense.

#11 Cincinnati — Colton Loveland (TE, Michigan)
Loveland was a victim of Michigan not having a passing game in 2024 but he has every chance to be a star tight end in the NFL, especially playing with Joe Burrow.

#12 Dallas — Jihaad Campbell (LB, Alabama)
Eric Kendricks has been a liability this year. Campbell has played like a tank all season for Alabama and has outstanding upside.

#13 Miami — Kelvin Banks (T/G, Texas)
There are certain teams who will be under pressure to invest in their offensive lines in 2025. The Dolphins are very much one of those teams.

#14 Indianapolis — Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
He’s just been so dynamic this year and there’s little reason to think he can’t replicate a feature role in the NFL.

#15 Atlanta — James Pearce (EDGE, Tennessee)
He hasn’t had the big sack numbers and there are questions about his ability to set the edge but his pass-rush win percentage (23%) is second only to Michigan’s Josaiah Stewart (24.6%) and is just ahead of Abdul Carter’s (21.2%).

#16 Arizona — Mykel Williams (DE, Georgia)
Physically he looks the part but he’s only played in fits and starts this year. The Cardinals need impact players up front.

#17 San Francisco — Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
The 49ers have to fix their offensive line, it’s as simple as that.

#18 LA Rams — Jahdae Barron (CB, Texas)
Barron has had a brilliant season and can be used as a chess piece across the secondary.

#19 Tampa Bay — Malaki Starks (S, Georgia)
He’s had an underwhelming second half of the season but the talent’s there.

#20 Washington — Josh Connerly (T/G, Oregon)
Just a brilliant football player with rare athleticism and aggression.

#21 LA Chargers — Shemar Stewart (DE, Texas A&M)
Jim Harbaugh once took a chance on the raw potential of Aldon Smith and he might do the same with Stewart here.

#22 Denver — TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
Sanders has shown he can take over games, including against quality opponents in the SEC. His 13.2% pass-rush win percentage is similar to Mason Graham’s (13.1%).

#23 Seattle — Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
Eventually John Schneider will invest in a quarterback. Allar’s traits match what he’s looked for in the past. He’s far from the finished article but he’s the exact same height and weight as Josh Allen, has plus athleticism and a big arm. The Seahawks renew Geno Smith’s contract on a compromise deal to suit both parties and select their bridge to the future in a range where they know they can get him. More on Seattle’s picks at the end of the mock.

#24 Baltimore — Jonah Savaiinaea (T/G, Arizona)
I think he’s a right guard because he gives up too many pressures at right tackle. When he’s squared-up he can win with power. However, the Ravens were willing to start Daniel Faalele at right tackle, so they might try Savaiinaea there first.

#25 Houston — Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
The Texans are virtually obliged to add to their offensive line after a horror year for C.J. Stroud. Jackson is a great athlete, the opposite of Houston’s former first round bust Kenyon Green.

#26 Green Bay — Mike Green (EDGE, Marshall)
His production this year has been really impressive with 17 sacks and a 20.3% pass-rush win percentage.

#27 Pittsburgh — Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
The Steelers like big, physical, highly athletic players. Emmanwori can be their version of Kyle Hamilton.

#28 Minnesota — Walter Nolen (DT, Ole Miss)
He took over games at times (see: Florida) but in other contests you wanted to see more from him. Finished with six sacks.

#29 Buffalo — Princely Umanmielen (DE, Ole Miss)
When he wants to be, Umanmielen can be really good. His motor runs hot and cold but the talent is there. He had 11 sacks and a 20.6% pass-rush win percentage this season.

#30 Philadelphia — Will Campbell (T/G, LSU)
He’s a very good athlete but all this talk of the top-10 doesn’t chime with the tape. He can be passive, he lacks aggression and he’s been beaten way too often off the edge. He has short arms and will likely have to kick inside.

#31 Kansas City — Grey Zabel (T, North Dakota State)
One of my favourite players in the draft. Just brilliant fun to watch and I think he has a very bright future.

#32 Cleveland (v/DET) — Cam Ward (QB, Miami)
Ward has had a very good season and elevated his stock — but not qualifying for the playoffs robbed him of a serious test having faced a soft ACC schedule in 2024. It’s hard to imagine he elevated his stock from day three to top-five but a team will potentially take him in the top-45. I have the Browns trading up to take him late in round one in a deal with the Lions.

Round two

#33 Las Vegas — Emeka Egbuka (WR, Ohio State)
A reliable target for Shedeur.

#34 NY Giants — Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
Johnson has star potential.

#35 Jacksonville — Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
People keep saying he’ll go in the top-20 but I didn’t see that on tape.

#36 New England — Aireontae Ersery (T/G, Minnesota)
I think he’s too sluggish with his footwork to stick at left tackle but the options aren’t great if you want to improve at the position.

#37 NY Jets — Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, Bowling Green)
He could be a X-factor weapon in the NFL.

#38 Tennessee — Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
Players like Scourton — bigger defensive ends — always get mocked in round one. Then like AJ Epenesa and Boogie Basham, they go in round two.

#39 Detroit (v/CLE) — Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
He had a great season, wrecked the USC game and led the NCAA for pass-rush win percentage. Testing will be key for Stewart.

#40 Chicago (v/CAR) — Benjamin Morrison (CB, Notre Dame)
He would’ve gone in round one without the injury.

#41 New Orleans — Xavier Restrepo (WR,Miami)
There’s just something about Restrepo which makes me think he’ll go earlier than people are projecting.

#42 Chicago — Jared Ivey (DE, Ole Miss)
Ivey showed flashes this year, particularly against Georgia, to think he can be an effective NFL rusher.

#43 Cincinnati — Shavon Revel (CB, East Carolina)
Another player who would’ve been a first round pick but for his injury.

#44 Dallas — Deone Walker (DT, Kentucky)
He’s aggressive and tough but doesn’t have a typical body type.

#45 San Francisco — Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
I’m not convinced the 49ers are going to pay Brock Purdy a massive contract. Thus, they might add Ewers as insurance and just let 2025 play out. Ewers could be a good fit for Kyle Shanahan.

#46 Miami — Kevin Winston Jr (S, Penn State)
Injury robbed him of an opportunity to go earlier than this.

#47 Indianapolis — Mansoor Delane (CB, Virginia Tech)
He has the traits needed to be a starting NFL corner.

#48 Carolina (v/LAR) — Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Williams is a terrific run defender and has played well for two seasons.

#49 Arizona — Xavier Scott (CB, Illinois)
He’s such a sparky playmaker. I really enjoyed watching him.

#50 Tampa Bay — Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
Ezeiruaku has been consistently good this season rushing the edge.

#51 Atlanta — Jordan Burch (DE, Oregon)
He’s very athletic for his size and he’s had a productive year for the Ducks. It feels like there’s more to come from Burch.

#52 Seattle — Dylan Fairchild (G, Georgia)
He’s a former two-time Georgia state heavyweight wrestling champion. The Seahawks will like that.

#53 Houston — Jake Majors (C, Texas)
The Texans continue to rebuild their offensive line with the brilliant Majors.

#54 Denver — Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
This would be a bargain for the Broncos. Taylor is incredibly talented with great bloodlines.

#55 Baltimore — Billy Bowman (S, Oklahoma)
Bowman plays like a Raven.

#56 Washington — Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA)
He’s had a brilliant season. Bobby Wagner won’t be able to play forever.

#57 LA Chargers — Ty Robinson (DT, Nebraska)
If there’s a Jim Harbaugh type of defensive lineman in this draft, it’s this guy.

#58 Green Bay — Jack Nelson (T/G, Wisconsin)
The Packers always seem to take offensive linemen I like.

#59 Pittsburgh — Devin Neal (RB, Kansas)
If Najee Harris moves on, Neal would be a great replacement.

#60 Buffalo — Xavier Watts (S, Notre Dame)
A productive, consistent safety with a great attitude.

#61 Buffalo (v/MIN) — Danny Stutsman (LB, Oklahoma)
As with Watts, a very consistent, hard-nosed linebacker who fits the Bills.

#62 Philadelphia — Derrick Harmon (DE, Oregon)
I’m not seeing why people have him in round one but he’s a viable day-two option in this draft.

#63 Kansas City — DJ Giddens (RB, Kansas State)
He reminds me of a less explosive Alvin Kamara.

#64 Detroit — Chris Paul Jr (LB, Ole Miss)
He has the demeanour and playing style of a Lions’ defender.

Further thoughts on the Seahawks picks

I’ve long thought Tyler Booker would be an ideal, almost obvious pick for the Seahawks in round one. They need someone who they can plug in at left guard and reliably start at a decent level quickly. Booker’s personality, attitude and playing style all chime perfectly with what the Seahawks have been targeting in recent drafts. He’s a reliable leader committed to football.

However, there is a scenario where they keep winning and Booker is taken before they select. Plug-in-and-play linemen are in high demand. If he’s off the board, there will be appealing alternatives. I have four offensive linemen coming off the board between Seattle’s pick at #23 and the end of the first round. However, by this point they have to weigh up the difference in talent between the likes of Donovan Jackson (another player with a lot of experience at left guard) and Dylan Fairchild in round two. I don’t think there’s a big gap.

Am I convinced Drew Allar is going to go in round one? Not at all. The college football playoffs will impact his stock more than most players. Am I totally sold on the Seahawks wanting to draft him? Again, no.

I’m pitching a theory that, at least in my opinion, makes some sense. I’ve discussed this in other articles but I’ll do a quick recap here:

— I firmly believe John Schneider has been itching to draft a quarterback since trading Russell Wilson and simply hasn’t been in a position to select one he likes. He has been justified in passing so far, given the Seahawks have not whiffed on any success stories at quarterback since 2022 apart from the improbable rise of Brock Purdy, working with Kyle Shanahan.

— The Seahawks have had a good bridge quarterback in Geno Smith for three seasons but are running out of time to draft the player to actually bridge to. Smith has one year left on his contract and turns 35 next year. A small extension which increases Smith’s earnings, while giving the Seahawks an annual ‘out’ and lowering his 2025 cap-hit, makes sense.

— I think Schneider will feel he needs to act sooner rather than later and will likely add someone he believes can be developed with the difference making traits he covets. Allar’s height (6-5) and weight (238lbs) are virtually identical to Josh Allen’s measurements at his combine. Allen was far from the finished product at Wyoming and that’s the case for Allar too. I’ve gone into detail about wanting to see him take more chances downfield, elevate Penn State to a big win, clean up his technique and find a way to look less awkward on the move. However, it also needs to be recognised that he’s made major progress this year having looked mostly undraftable a year ago. He’s shown flashes of creative brilliance, including against Oregon last week. He does have a NFL arm, outstanding size and some enticing traits. He is typically the kind of quarterback we’ve seen drafted between #15-#55 in the past.

— This is not a draft class loaded with legit first round players. The chances are the Seahawks, if they make the playoffs, will be drafting a player in round one who carries a day-two grade. Thus, they might not see drafting Allar in round one as problematic within this specific class. They may also feel that it’s a ‘now or never’ scenario, with the possibility Allar doesn’t make it to their pick in round two.

— The situation could be compared to the Packers drafting Jordan Love with the #26 pick in 2020. Love wasn’t ready to start and was drafted as the heir apparent to Aaron Rodgers. He was given quite some time before starting and that has paid off for Green Bay.

— Like virtually everyone else, I think the Seahawks have to make a big effort to improve the offensive line. I don’t think that has to mean with a first round pick, though. There are good options on day two. The talent difference between Booker at #19 and Jake Majors at #60 is not massive. Therefore, I think the Seahawks can take a chance on Allar if they believe in him. I’d also like to see resources spent on proven veteran linemen prior to the draft, for example center Ryan Kelly or if they want to go younger, I still believe Green Bay center Josh Myers would be worth bringing in for his toughness and leadership. I’d kick the tires on Brandon Scherff, James Daniels, Austin Corbett, Kevin Zeitler, Ben Cleveland and Will Hernandez (health permitting). Isaac Seumalo is a potential cap-casualty I’d be interested in, likewise Trey Pipkins. I don’t think the Seahawks can rely on drafting their way to an improved line in the first two rounds — a veteran presence is also required.

— Dylan Fairchild is more than capable of competing to start for the Seahawks at left guard. He’s a tremendous athlete with a wrestling background — something Seattle has valued in the past. He’s well sized, a good athlete and is expected to produce strong testing results.

The point of these mocks is to talk through scenarios, possibilities and discuss what John Schneider might do. Presenting you with the same mock everyone else is delivering would be fairly pointless. I’m not trying to predict the future with these — I’m trying to bring options to the table that seem somewhat viable.

I don’t think this mock is totally unrealistic for the Seahawks.

I’ve tried to match-up team needs and value across the two rounds as much as possible. Apologies to fans of other teams if you think I’ve made a mistake.

If you want to see how I’m grading the draft currently, based on the players I’ve had a chance to study, check out my latest horizontal board by clicking here.

This is a guest article written by Curtis Allen

Record: 4-0

Thoughts

What a turnaround.  A 1-4 second quarter that ended with a thud in an overtime loss against the Rams that they should have won, followed by a bye week of reflection.

I don’t think any of us could have predicted what followed.  Beating their nemesis in San Francisco and sandwiching a sweep of a hot Cardinals team around a comeback against the Jets in one of the most bizarre games of the NFL season.

The Seahawks are not the finished article.  Far from it.  Yet fan optimism and faith has been rewarded heavily with a major turnaround on defense and a suddenly competent offense.

MVP

1. Leonard Williams

How could it not be the Big Cat for his performance this quarter?

Two solid games sandwiched around two incredible, Defensive Player of the Year-type games.

He harassed the quarterback (4.5 sacks, six pressures, three passes defensed).

He tackled ball carriers (eight tackles for loss and 21 tackles in this quarter alone!).

He blocked a PAT attempt.

And he might have completely turned the Seahawks’ season around with this pick-six:

LEONARD WILLIAMS 91-YARD PICK-6 🔥

📺: #SEAvsNYJ on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/8CECV6s1AL

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2024

Men that big and that strong are not supposed to also be blessed with the hands to snare passes and the feet to run like a sprinter.

The Seahawks have spent a lot of capital to acquire him (draft picks, cap space) and put complementary pieces around him (Dre’Mont Jones, Byron Murphy, Roy Robertson-Harris).  He is rewarding all of that investment handsomely.

2. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

JSN had a four-game stretch that rivals any great Wide Receiver in Seahawks history:

— 25 catches on 27 targets for 343 yards

— 17 first downs for a 68% rate per catch / 63% rate per target (both league top-five)

— Two touchdowns

— Zero drops

None of those first down catches were cheap.

Putting your slot corner on him does not work.

The Seahawks have a star on their hands. Ryan Grubb has a weapon he can deploy all over the field.

3. Ernest Jones

The Seahawks have found the linchpin of their defense.

The run defense has stabilized since Jones arrived.  Tyrice Knight has started to shine.

Jones had a terrific interception against the Cardinals.

His best feature might be this. Before Ernest Jones?  Free Safety Julian Love was averaging 7.85 tackles per game.  Strong Safety Coby Bryant in his first real starting role against the Falcons had 11 tackles.

After Ernest Jones?  Love is at 5.67 per game.  Bryant has never had more than six tackles in a game.

Jones is complementing the defensive line in keeping the back of the defense clean and enabling the safeties to roam a bit and cover for their teammates.

The scary part?  The Seahawks have yet to try using Jones as a blitzer.  Which we know he can do.

Rookie Of the Quarter

1. Tyrice Knight

— 35 tackles and two tackles for loss

— Two pressures, a sack and a QB knockdown on six blitzes

— A fumble recovery

Where the ball is, Tyrice Knight is not far behind.  He engages with his assignment but always keeps his eyes up for the ball carrier.

Four of his six career starts were this quarter.  He is still learning but he is doing it on the field while playing at a better level than the two veteran linebackers the Seahawks parted abruptly parted ways with this season.

2. Sataoa Laumea

It might be a bit too early to say the Seahawks have found their Right Guard of the future.

But just the fact fans are thinking that after the dreadful play of Anthony Bradford and the non-existent play of Christian Haynes is a huge benefit.

Laumea has had key blocks in two of Zach Charbonnet’s touchdown runs this quarter.

He has made mistakes to be sure but his play and potential is more than offsetting them.

3. A.J. Barner

Eight catches on eleven targets, three first downs, one touchdown, a key block on a Charbonnet touchdown run and one fool trucked.

Honorable Mention:  Byron Murphy is not flashing all through the game but is excelling at the dirty work that every team needs players to do to be a productive defense.  A ‘quieter’ rookie season followed by a full off-season of work and training is perfectly acceptable.

Successes

This quarter’s successes distinctly match the goals we talked about in our second quarter report card.

1. Put Together Back-to-Back Solid Efforts

Check.

The San Francisco game and the Arizona game featured closed-circle football.

The defense in the Niners game kept Christian McCaffrey from running wild.  They even bailed out Geno Smith for an interception in their own zone, holding the Niners to a field goal.  They then stuffed McCaffrey twice and forced two incompletions to give the ball back to the offense with enough time to mount a game-winning drive by Smith that was masterful.

The Arizona game was a brilliant defensive display.  The run-heavy Cardinals were kept in check and the pass rush savvy of Devon Witherspoon forced Kyler Murray into a Pick-six by Coby Bryant.

2. Figure Out a Way to Improve the Offensive Line

Check.

Abe Lucas has stabilized the Right Tackle position.  He had a terrific first game back against San Francisco, and has since been slightly uneven at times.  But he has not had a physical relapse, and has brought the tough spirit wes all know he has back to the offense and jailbreaks from that side of the field are far less regular.

Sataoa Lumea has been excellent at Right Guard.  As we said above, the position is not solved.  But he has excelled at what the Seahawks have asked him to do and in two games has produced highlight-worthy blocks that his teammates at the position have not.

Make no mistake, the line still needs significant work this offseason.  But for this quarter, the Seahawks have made as much progress as they possibly can.

3. Win A Division Game

Check, check and check.

The Seahawks got the Niners monkey off their backs and swept the Cardinals.  They exit the quarter at the top of the division.   

Challenges

1. The Special Teams Nightmare in New York

So, that happened.

The most head-scratching part of this particular challenge?  Most of it was preventable.  Dee Williams had shown that he has trouble as a returner, both in gauging the defenders coming at him and holding on to the ball.

The Jets’ kick return touchdown was by a practice squad player and the Seahawk defenders had chances to tackle him.

The Seahawks had an extra point attempt blocked.

Thank goodness for Leonard Williams and his Pick-six.  This disastrous performance can now be relegated to the ‘character-building chapter’ in the book of the Seahawks’ 2024 season.

2. Execution Issues on Offense

Short yardage challenges reared their ugly head once again.  Geno Smith making questionable decisions and being *just slightly* inaccurate under pressure came up again.

In the first Arizona game, the offense only managed ten points.  This after the defense forced six punts and delivered a pick-six.

The Seahawks won the Jets game on a 71-yard drive in which the Jets committed 46 yards of penalties, with two of them coming on fourth down.  They tried shooting themselves in the foot, but the Jets would not let them lose this game.

I know four straight wins after the previous quarter is fantastic and nothing to complain about.  But the defense’s dominance should have led the way to blowouts instead of somewhat comfortable wins.  The offense still has progress to make.

That’s it.  There is no third challenge.

Fourth Quarter Games

Green Bay (SNF)

Minnesota

@ Chicago

@ LA Rams

Goals for Fourth Quarter

1. Stay On Their Current Trajectory

The Seahawks have rounded into form.  The win in Arizona demonstrated what they can do with a complete effort from all three phases that are mostly error-free.

The competition is going to ramp up with games against three playoff hopefuls in the Packers, Vikings and Rams and a Bears team with nothing to lose.

Four wins seals the division crown and that would be a fantastic accomplishment.

This stretch should be about continuing their growth as a team though.  That is a far more important long-term goal.  They have made great strides on defense and the running game has suddenly come to life and been complemented by a very sharp quick-passing offense.  Special Teams did not have any major blunders on Sunday.

It is easy to say all problems have been fixed from here on out.  Harder to actually execute that.  Particularly in the crucible of the home stretch, where the weather will likely be cold and rainy in three of the four game locations, and the running game and execution on Special Teams will be ever more critical.

A backslide is very possible.

We have found out a lot about this team.  This quarter’s discovery is this — they can beat up a banged up Niner team.  They can beat a good but undermanned Arizona team.  Twice.

Can they expand their vision to beat the Packers, with top runner Josh Jacobs?  Or the Vikings with their fantastic pass rush and a suddenly hot Sam Darnold?  They got the Niner monkey off their backs, can they get the Rams one off too?

We will see.

One very specific thing that will go a long way towards success…

2. Win the Turnover Battle

This has been a challenge all season.  The Seahawks went +2 this quarter which has them at -4 on the season.

All four of their opponents this quarter are in plus territory for the season AND for their last four games.  In this one area, they have been far better than the Seahawks.

Geno Smith has not thrown an interception in the last two games, the only two-game stretch he has gone without one.  That streak needs to continue.

The defense needs to continue creating turnovers.  An aggressive, attacking pass rush and strong-punching tacklers like Ernest Jones, Tyrice Knight and Devon Witherspoon matched with ballhawks Coby Bryant and Riq Woolen can turn just about any game in the Seahawks’ favor.

And the bonus factor here:  The defense and the offense must support each other post-turnover.  The defense needs to hold fast and turn almost-sure touchdowns into field goals.  The offense must punish the opposing offense for their lack of ball control by turning prime opportunities into touchdowns and not settling for field goals.

3. Tap Into the Team’s Depth of Underused Players

Can they find a mix of reps for Zach Charbonnet and Kenneth Walker that can be productive for both players?  This year’s inability (or unwillingness) to run has not given us a proper platform for this discussion.  Charbonnet sure looked like a lead horse against the Cardinals.  Does the team need to settle on a “Zach gets x reps and Walker gets y reps” plan or can they manage their depth to exploit both players’ talents?  Walker is a very underrated route runner.  How about a series with both on the field, which has Charbonnet as the lead back and Walker motioning out to reveal the defense?

Noah Fant is not far behind his career-worst pace of 2023 and has not scored a touchdown in almost two years.  He has only been targeted more than four times in two games this season.  Fant is a definite talent whom the Seahawks should be able to find some plays for.

We talked above about Ernest Jones not yet being used as a blitzer.

They badly need Uchenna Nwosu to make an impact in this quarter.  Boye Mafe and Derick Hall have contributed lately, but not at the statistical level they were earlier this season.  A run-stopper with real pass rush talent at OLB may be just the chess piece this defense needs to ascend even further.

D.K. Metcalf has only three touchdown catches this season.  Can a recently stable offensive line give Geno Smith enough time to find him downfield?  A couple well-timed deep touchdown throws can turn any game on its ear and shift playoff seedings and fortunes the Seahawks’ way.

Jake Bobo.  Cody White.  Chris McIntosh.

The offense has depth and talent.  Pulling out some of the plays they have worked on for these players at key moments may prove fruitful.

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