Some reflections, both in general and based on what I saw at the weekend…

Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
Another six sacks conceded by South Carolina’s shocking offensive line and that only tells half the story. Rattler was constantly harassed, pressured or hit. Despite this, he still managed to complete 23 passes, show off his natural arm talent, scramble and create to extend plays and break off big runs (including an impressive 16-yarder under duress). South Carolina’s O-line is giving up exactly five sacks per game, tied for worst in the whole of college football along with Colorado’s shambles of a line. In comparison, Washington is giving up 0.6 sacks a game, Oregon 0.7, Duke 0.8, Michigan one sack, Miami 1.2, Florida State 1.3, Ohio State 1.7 and even Kentucky has improved to 1.6 per game. Rattler isn’t getting any attention because the Gamecocks are mostly dreadful but he’s finally developed into the player his talent suggested he could be. He should be getting so much more draft focus. He looks and plays like a mini-Mahomes and he has the talent and ability to be a plus starter at the next level. Seeing him still find a way, somehow, to look as good as he does under constant pressure is a major feather in his cap. He’s a collector’s item — a QB who will actually face less pressure in the NFL.

Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Back-to-back defeats and a second game where Williams had moments of adversity. However, he is everything teams are looking for in terms of improvisation, creativity, pure arm talent and star quality. It’s surprising that USC haven’t done a better job building a better supporting cast around Williams, who remains a cast-iron guarantee to be the #1 pick. I only currently have three players graded with legit, high-end round one grades — Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr and Brock Bowers.

Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
It’s another shoulder injury for Ewers and although reports suggest he won’t necessarily miss the rest of the season, it has to be a possibility. Against Houston he combined the routine, easy short-passing game Steve Sarkisian utilises with the natural flair he possesses to get the ball downfield. He played well, avoiding errors. The way he flicks his wrist and the ball flies out of his hand is, it has to be said, very impressive and almost Rodgers-esque. He is erratic at times but still highly talented. However, this is back-to-back years with shoulder injuries. He’s been playing lighter at sub-200lbs too. Scouts and certain GM’s (including John Schneider) are probably going to love the arm talent and potential with Ewers. However, the injuries are officially a thing to contend with. Tony Pauline recently reported Ewers is 50/50 on whether to turn pro in 2024.

Riley Leonard (QB, Duke)
Mere weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain, Leonard took the field against Florida State on Saturday. He had no business playing. He was clearly hobbled, couldn’t properly step into his throws, couldn’t function anywhere close to his best and he didn’t finish the game. His final play was a nasty hit that left him clutching his injured ankle. Protect your players. He still had one incredible side-arm throw that screamed ‘high draft pick’ but he otherwise functioned as if he was playing in a walking boot (and probably should’ve been). Teams/coaches need to look after their players in these situations. Leonard shouldn’t have played. I still like his upside potential a lot though and he clearly has the talent to go early in the draft.

Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
One of the knocks on Penix is the difficulty with which to project his NFL potential given how little pressure he faces at UW. As noted earlier, Washington is giving up less than a sack per game (0.6). Against Arizona he faced plenty of pressure and adversity and I’m afraid he struggled. Arizona took away Washington’s timing, flustered the quarterback and he simply lacked any kind of poise, improv or ability to adapt. The offense ground to a halt. For all of the dazzling stat-bombs over the last few weeks, this is the kind of game scouts focus on. He can play pitch-and-catch against a bad Michigan State defense all day. He won’t get that in the NFL. He’ll be pressured, hit and he’ll need to make quick, precise reads. He won’t have a clean pocket or be playing in a system he’s mastered over a number of years. He’ll be playing in this environment a lot and this performance suggested he’s not entirely comfortable when life is muddied in the pocket and the timing is thrown off. The arm talent is still wonderful and very enticing but this game is a bit of a reality check.

Will Howard (QB, Kansas State)
Bizarrely he was spelled against TCU and split drives with Avery Johnson but when he was on the field he was accurate, made key throws look easy and he showed off great running ability for his size. I really like Howard. I don’t know if he’ll ever be a top-end starter but there’s something there and he’d make an intriguing top-100 pick.

Brady Cook (QB, Missouri)
I don’t know if he’ll declare or not in 2024 and I’m not suggesting he’ll necessarily be a high pick one day but Cook can play. He is consistently playing an attractive brand of football — combining dynamic running with accurate throws to all levels of the field. Every time I watch Mizzou he catches the eye.

Jack Nelson (T, Wisconsin)
I don’t care where you play him. Left or right tackle, guard. The guy can play. He locks on and finishes blocks. He’s powerful and aggressive. He’s a good player who I think deserves a second round placing at least.

Troy Fautanu (T/G, Washington)
One of the big reasons Washington give up so few pressures is the scheme, the other is the play of Fautanu. I was way more impressed than I expected to be watching him on tape. He’s just so comfortable with his technique and plays with great control. He can lock on to finish blocks, he can shadow speed rushers and hold his own versus power. He reminds me a lot of Alijah Vera-Tucker (former USC, now with the Jets) and similarly could be used at guard or tackle at the next level given his size. I really like him.

Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)
Big, athletic, brilliant. He is this year’s Darnell Wright and is destined to be a first round pick. Every time I watch Oklahoma the big right tackle stands out. He has a great chance to be a top-12 pick.

Graham Barton (T, Duke)
His lack of length (approx 32-inch arms) will be an issue at left tackle, where he excels for Duke. Many are tipping him to kick inside to play center. What I’d say is this — his performance at tackle is top-level in college football. If he can play as well as he can blocking the blindside, he has the potential to be a star at center and deserves a strong grade (top-40). Jacob Monk, who actually did play center for Duke on Saturday, is also worth keeping in mind. I think he can play anywhere along the interior and deserves early round three consideration.

Theo Johnson (TE, Penn State)
For a player listed at 6-6 and 264lbs, he moves so well. He has a gliding presence running routes and he makes a number of catches appear effortless. He’s very good at adjusting his body to gain a good catching position and he’ll be able to box-out defenders at the next level. Johnson also has soft hands, major blocking potential with his frame and he looks like he has speed to burn. Expect a strong combine. For me, he’s a potential second round pick.

Dallas Turner (EDGE, Alabama)
I can’t get excited about Turner — and that’s generally how I feel about the entire EDGE class. He looks small and quick and there are flashy moments. Does he look like a dominating edge rusher destined to go early in round one like many are projecting? Not to me. I currently have North Carolina’s Kaimon Rucker rated marginally higher (Rucker has a pass-rush win percentage of 21%, Turner’s at 20.1%). Teammate Justin Eboigbe might lack Turner’s flash but his size intrigues me more and he’ll be available later on.

Jer’Zhan Newton (DE/DT, Illinois)
I think he might best suited to playing 3-4 end but you can’t get away from the fact that he causes consistent, major disruption. Against Wisconsin he was a constant threat, either overpowering blockers to shove them back into the pocket or winning with a twitchy pass-rush move or a stunt. He was eventually ejected from the game for an unfortunate targeting call on a sack but that shouldn’t change how well he played up until that point. Newton’s pass-rush win percentage is 16.7%. He is the most disruptive defensive lineman eligible for the 2024 draft and it’s not really that close. He is a pure playmaker up front who should test well at the combine. Length and size will be monitored, however.

McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
The Aggies didn’t play this week but I still wanted to touch on Jackson again, one of my favourites in this class. He’s just a hulking, brutish defensive tackle who equally plays stout and physical but still creates ample pass rush from the interior. He’s a heart and soul leader of the team and would fit perfectly into the Seattle’s D-line rotation. He’s their kind of guy, I think.

Howard Cross (DT, Notre Dame)
You have to give it Cross. As an undersized interior defender he holds his own and consistently finds a way to disrupt plays. His effort and intensity is impressive, he plays with quickness and penetrating ability. Whether he’ll be overwhelmed at the next level at his size is a question mark but there’s a lot to like here and his testing numbers will be interesting. He has a pass rush win percentage of 14.3%.

T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
Despite his enormous frame (he could stand to lose a few pounds, frankly) Sweat still manages to play a complete brand of football. He can be a stout nose tackle and he can also disrupt more than you’d expect as a pass rusher, registering a highly impressive 19.1% pass rush win percentage so far this year. Supposedly the light switched on for him in 2023 and he’s taking advantage. The talent is obvious. Keep him this motivated and he can be a good player at the next level.

Tyler Davis (DT, Clemson)
He’s kind of a forgotten man in the class really but whenever you watch Clemson’s D-line you do notice him. He’s very active and difficult to block. He might lack the star quality of a Dexter Lawrence or Christian Wilkins but he could make a very solid pro with a round three pick.

Cedric Gray (LB, North Carolina)
Linebacker is one of my least favourite positions to study unless a player shows off a very clear and obvious combination of agility, quickness and violence. I was enamoured with Logan Wilson in 2020 because for me it looked obvious what kind of career he was destined to have. I really liked Fred Warner in 2018. Alternatively, Jarrad Davis — who I also felt very strongly about — has not lived up to expectations. I haven’t seen any linebacker yet to get that excited about apart from Jeremiah Trotter at Clemson (who I really like). I have a block of names graded for early day three (pre-testing, which will change things based on athletic potential which is critical at this position). Gray is the only one between Trotter and the rest, nestled into round three. He can drop well, he fills gaps with a forceful attacking nature. He can shift around the field and tackle. I think he looks like a capable if unspectacular starter.

Jeremiah Trotter (LB, Clemson)
Every time I watch Clemson he seems to do something cool. He’s excellent defending the run, he looks like a good athlete who can drop. He has NFL bloodlines and is a former 5-star recruit. If you think linebacker is a vital need in the off-season and want to invest in the position, Trotter — for me — is a good bet.

Closing thoughts
I’m still struggling to find legit first round players for this draft. I currently have a breakdown of three legit R1 talents (high first round picks), nine other players I’d draft in round one (because you have to take someone) and 35 players marked with round two grades. That’s only 47 players, with 64 set to be taken in the first two rounds. Currently I think the draft is particularly weak at tight end, defensive end and safety. There’s depth at quarterback and defensive tackle. There’s also some good offensive linemen who will be available in the first three rounds. There are still players I need to watch but I’ve not missed anyone being rated highly by anyone else. I can’t say this is currently shaping up to be a deep draft but there’s still plenty of football to be played, not to mention the inevitable impact of the Senior Bowl and combine.

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This was a mess of a game with a few big positives.

Devon Witherspoon’s crunching hit at the end of the third quarter will be a season highlight. That’s why I love football. That’s what I want to see from a Seahawks defensive player.

This is why the NFL is great #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/SEFx7bNGh3

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) October 22, 2023

To look this good this early in his career is quite a thing for Witherspoon. He was unlucky not to end the day with an interception and a sack (both called back for penalties by other players). The #5 pick was well spent on this playmaking, sparky defensive talent who is setting a tone in a way few players are able to.

He’s not the only rookie playing well. Jake Bobo continues to be a revelation. He can make the big play, the important play, the crucial block. Every team needs a Bobo and the Seahawks played a blinder adding him as an UDFA. I had him graded at the top of round four on my horizontal board this year and still can’t believe he wasn’t selected.

It was good to see Jaxon Smith-Njigba get his first touchdown and provide more of a contribution. We’re yet to see what I’d say are flashy, ‘special’ qualities from JSN but hopefully this game will give him confidence.

The Cardinals are not a good team and they lack proven quality on offense but I thought this was another good display by the defense. The D-line is playing far better than I expected prior to the season starting. They’ll be tested in the coming weeks by some powerhouse opponents but so far they are aggressive, stout and not as easy to play against as they have been in previous years. Boye Mafe has four sacks in as many games, Jarran Reed continues to shine and things are looking up.

All in all, though, it was a dog’s dinner of a game. Arizona are dreadful and deserve to be 1-6 on this evidence. The ‘fake punt’ they ran summed things up, as did their inability to cash-in on three turnovers (scoring just three points after the interception and two fumbles). They had a few moments of inspiration but otherwise look like a rebuilding team starting from scratch.

The Seahawks should’ve coasted to a victory but conspired to make it closer than it needed to be. I suppose you could say that’s been a Pete Carroll staple over the years but it’s never a justification for a stop-start performance.

For me the biggest concern coming out of the game is the offense. They have too many weapons to look this middling. They are inept in the red-zone so far. Geno Smith’s performance warrants another conversation this week.

I spent a lot of time talking about Smith after the Bengals loss and this game today just further illustrated the point that he should be seen as a bridge only. Smith has good physical tools and can make good passes, move the ball and he’s far from a terrible quarterback. Yet he’s still Geno Smith. He’s still the player who has too many turnover-worthy plays. He still makes too many critical errors. He still has fluctuating halves of football, as we’ve seen in all but the Detroit game this season.

The interception was horrible — hesitating when the throw wasn’t there, then throwing it anyway. He was responsible for the fumble, dropping a simple snap. He could’ve easily had a pick-six in the first half too.

I’m not calling for him to be benched or anything. I think if Drew Lock were better he’d probably already be playing. I do think we need to be realistic about Smith, though. He’s an acceptable starter for now. Yet if this Seahawks team ever wants to take the next step and be a true contender — which is a distinct possibility given the talent acquisition over the last two years — they are probably going to need a better quarterback. The aim has to be great and Championship caliber, not merely be good and content with life.

There’s also the cost factor. What we’ve seen through six games, in my opinion, isn’t worth between $31.1m and $41.1m (Smith’s salary next year). Especially not when Seattle’s estimated effective cap space is now at $4.5m for next year, with a decent collection of pending free agents on the team.

The next few weeks are going to be interesting. They play Myles Garrett’s Browns next week, an enormous test. Then it’s Baltimore (A), Washington (H), LA Rams (A), San Francisco (H), Dallas (A), San Francisco (A), Philadelphia (H). We’re going to find out what this team truly is (or isn’t) very quickly.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

This week, the Seahawks face an Arizona team that looks distinctly unfamiliar for a division opponent.

Not only did the Cardinals part ways with Kliff Kingsbury and Steve Keim this year, the roster looks dramatically different. Stars like J.J. Watt, Markus Golden, DeAndre Hopkins, Isaiah Simmons, A.J. Green and Zach Allen are no longer part of the team.

The two best players on the roster have been on IR since the season started (Kyler Murray and Budda Baker) and running back and offensive rock James Conner will now miss extended time.

This team is seriously lacking in talent.

Knowing a teardown was coming, the organization passed up a shot at one potentially great player (Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson) with the #3 pick in the draft in order to trade down and gather more picks.

The future looks much better than the present does for the Cardinals.

The plucky team that nearly beat the Giants and shocked the Cowboys early in the season has come back down to earth and at 1-5, has been revealed as a team without the skill players to run with teams with playoff aspirations.

Their last three games have been a 19-point loss to the Niners, a 14-point loss to the Bengals and a 17-point loss to the Rams. Each of those teams collected 380 or more yards of offense on the Cardinal defense and have won the turnover battle 5-2 over them in those three games.

As you can guess, Arizona’s defense in particular has been dreadful. They are #28 in yards allowed per game, #27 in scoring per game, #24 in rushing yards and #22 in passing yards allowed. Only a couple of their starting players on defense are currently graded higher than 60 by PFF.

The offense is only slightly better. They are #20 in scoring and #25 in passing yards. They are the #6 team in the NFL in rushing offense – but as we said James Connor is on injured reserve.

They are flat even in turnover differential and are one of the most penalized teams in the NFL.

What happens when you combine a poor defense with a lack of rapid-fire weapons and no turnover or penalty luck? The Cardinals are the NFL’s worst second-half offense, only averaging five points per game in quarters 3/4. The defense is also poor there, ranking #30 by giving up over 16 points per game in the second half. The second half is generally when gameplans have been revealed, teams have adapted and star players make their mark. The Cardinals are just not built to finish games.

When you take all this into account, this should be an easy game for the Seahawks. One that gives the impression that they have regained their footing after wasting a fine defensive effort in a loss last week to the Bengals.

However, there is no lack of questions surrounding the Seahawks. Their offensive line is once again plagued by injuries, as Evan Brown, Jake Curhan and Phil Haynes have been banged up. The combination of injuries to the line and a game plan that did not utilize the tight ends to max protect provided for a frustrating game against the Bengals, one that Geno Smith could not compensate for.

Zach Charbonnet being held out of practice with a sore hamstring is keeping the team from fully deploying their two-headed monster attack in the ground game. And despite back-to-back good performances by the defense, the spectre of a regression is always looming.

It feels like this game could be similar to last year’s Week Six game against the Cardinals, a 19-9 Seahawks win that was comfortable, yet unsatisfying. Kyler Murray rushed for 100 yards in 10 carries but the Cardinals could not execute much when they really needed to and ended up only scoring three points of their own on offense. The other six came from a Michael Dickson fumble for a touchdown. Both teams surrendered more sacks than they would have liked to and the Seahawks had the only offensive touchdown in the game.

Yet truthfully, the Seahawks should have this game well in hand by halftime. How can they do that?

Control the Game with the Offense – Primarily the Running Game

Speaking of halves, what can we learn from the Rams beating the Cardinals last week?

In the first half of the game, the Rams ran the ball a grand total of three times for six yards. That is it. The Rams went into the locker room at halftime down 9-6.

They ended the game with 28 rushes for 179 yards and a touchdown, a meaty 6.39 yards per carry average.

What did the Rams do? Did they employ all kinds of tricks and misdirection? No. They just committed to the run. They came out of the locker room with a mentality, ran the ball right down the Cardinals’ throat. It was a sight to see. Look at it for yourself (the fun starts about 5:25):

The Rams called eight straight running plays and gained 60 yards and capped the drive with a Stafford to Kupp touchdown pass. Just look at Kyren Williams’ run chart for this game by Next Gen Stats:

There is simply no reason the Seahawks cannot do the exact same thing – only, I would advise starting the game that way. Trample this Cardinals defense. Set the terms of the encounter and tell them this is going to be a long day. Turn the tables on the Arizona offense and make them chase you instead of leaving the game up to whether Josh Dobbs has crazy enough legs to pull off a miracle.

The Seahawks are currently running about 22 running back runs per game through five games. Ken Walker is getting 16-17 runs per game. They inexplicably are in the bottom half of the league for running back usage.

That is not enough. The offense is out of synch and sputtering for a number of reasons – the offensive line pass protection has faltered, Geno Smith has been shaky and indecisive at key times and some of the playcalling has been overconfident – but we can all agree that this team should be more run-oriented. Many of those problems tend to be minimized when you can give the ball to your running back and gain 5-6 yards per rush.

Worried about Ken Walker getting hurt, with Zach Charbonnet already nursing a tender hamstring? Get Deejay Dallas the ball and let your offensive line open some holes. I could even see preseason sparkler SaRodorick Thompson getting some touches if things go well.

They have three tight ends who are capable in run blocking, offensive linemen who have scored well in that area and have invested second-round picks in runners in the last two drafts.

It is time to use them.

Bottle Up this Cardinal Offense – Particularly on the Edges

The Cardinals have featured one of the more run-heavier offenses in the league so far, running a 43/57 run/pass split of plays through last week. However, that number is slightly misleading because they deploy Rondale Moore as a sort of ‘line of scrimmage weapon.’ His average depth of reception is a miniscule 1.3 yards beyond the line. Call half of his catches “runs” and they are over 50% in their splits.

Their game on offense is to spread defenses horizontally and then attack the spots that develop. If you are covering all these gaps, you are less likely to get upfield and generate a tackle for loss. This gives Josh Dobbs time on his feet to diagnose the defense and choose whether to throw to Zach Ertz in a soft zone spot, find Hollywood Brown on a crossing pattern, or maybe take a shot downfield to Michael Wilson.

The offense is workable for them as Josh Dobbs is not a classic pocket passer, distributing dimes all over the field. His accuracy ratings are poor. He is a 62.8% completion passer, with an “on target” percentage of only 67.5% and a “bad throw percentage” of 18.3%. Those numbers are at the bottom of the league with players like Kenny Pickett, Ryan Tannehill and Derek Carr.

So, what is he good at? Making plays with his legs. He runs about 6-7 designed times a game and frequently picks up first downs with his 5.6 yards per rush average. The Cardinals use his runs as a set part of their offense to loosen up the defense and keep them guessing.

Watch him rip off a 43-yard run against the Cowboys.

It is fun to see Micah Parsons completely fooled and grabbing air. But safety Donovan Wilson (#6) gets drawn into the ruse and leaves the edge completely open for Dobbs to exploit.

He also has no qualms about exploiting the protections afforded quarterbacks in the running game, refusing to go down at the slightest contact.

If he spots a window, he is taking it.

He also is a scrambler, with a bit of early-career Russell Wilson to his game. When the play breaks down, he can hurt you in two ways: finding the man that has uncovered (which requires using his feet while keeping his eyes downfield) and using his speed when lanes open up. He has a league-best 14.5 yards per scramble. As in, a running play that is not designed initially as a run but has broken down and all bets are off.

This will require a great bit of balance on defense by the Seahawks. They will have to maintain their gaps and be strong on the garden-variety runs between the tackles. That’s you, Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks.

They will also have to maintain their edges and not get too far upfield or out of position. Boye Mafe, Uchenna Nwosu, Derrick Hall, even Darrell Taylor will have critical roles in this game. Sensing and knowing when to stay home and when to rush the passer will be key.

In case anyone needs a refresher in how to set the edge against the Cardinals…

One play that I considered adding to my breakdown on Kam Chancellor was this tackle for loss vs the #Cardinals. Kam Chancellor completely WRECKED Eric Winston. Such an insane way to set the edge and then make a play on the RB. #Seahawkshttps://t.co/LIDDADD04y pic.twitter.com/NWoGpsknrh

— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) July 3, 2018

But the key positions might be Jamal Adams and Devon Witherspoon. They will likely be covering the short passing game and be roaming around the edges in the running game. Also watch for some disguised blitzing from these two. They are quick enough to disrupt Dobbs before he can set up. This game should be a feast for their specific talents and may open up some poorly thrown passes for Quandre Diggs to intercept.

This has been a slightly elongated week for me in terms of watching tape. The guy who usually produces it got married over the weekend, so today was the first day he published material. I was able to watch Notre Dame vs USC on British TV on Saturday.

I have more to watch in the coming days as more tape is available. For now, here are thoughts on Michael Penix Jr, Drake Maye and Tyler Van Dyke.

Michael Penix Jr vs Oregon

Firstly, Rome Odunze is a first round lock. From the field IQ to the speed, body control, ball-tracking and exceptional character — teams are going to love Odunze and see him as a reliable pro-receiver who will be consistent at the next level. Although this is a quarterback review, I wanted to get that in first.

As I’ve said a few times, Penix probably throws the prettiest passes we’ve seen since Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech. His arm talent is exceptional. The first two scores in this game are great examples of this.

The first is a throw from his own 35-yard-line off a pump-fake and he makes it look easy. It’s virtually a hand-off into the end zone because he has the arm to put it on a plate for the receiver, combining velocity with touch. Elite-level arm talent enables you to make throws like this look simple.

The second is a throw from the left hash to essentially the right pylon (near enough) from his own 35-yard-line again. This is a long throw but he could not place it any better. The arm strength means the ball gets there directly and the talent means the placement and loft is spot on. You can’t defend this. The throw and the route by Ja’Lynn Polk are just too good:

Michael Penix Jr DIME for another Touchdown 🔥🔥🔥

pic.twitter.com/lYvwHPOe1J

— Alex 👋 (@Dubs408) October 14, 2023

The throw I liked the most in this game, however, came with 10:44 remaining. Penix is hit as he throws and still manages to make a 3rd and 8 conversion with a 22-yard dime. Because he’s pressured so infrequently, to see this kind of pass under the most intense pressure was vital for projection and shows he can still be a playmaker with defenders hitting him. He’s off-balance, he knows the hit is coming and he still gets the job done.

He can throw from different angles. Sometimes he trusts his arm too much and can get a little bit lazy with his technique but it’s not a huge issue. There have been a lot of downfield overthrows though. At UW it feels like they just take shots knowing they’ll get the snaps to keep taking chances with his arm. In the NFL, you get fewer shots to make these completions so he’ll need to be more precise at the next level and make the most of the limited downfield opportunities. He’ll need to add a short-game to his driver too and blend both together, if that makes sense.

The interception he had in the game felt like an unfortunate issue due to a stumble by Odunze during his route. I didn’t pin any blame on the QB there.

There’s no doubt he has exciting tools. The counter, as we’ve touched on a lot and will continue to do so through until April, is the scheme, situation and injury history.

With the injuries, all teams will check this out obviously. It’s just part of his college career and prior issues will need to be cleared.

Schematically what he’s doing is completely foreign to the NFL. A lot of QB’s are in the same boat, including C.J. Stroud (who is thriving in Houston). So it doesn’t have to be a huge issue but it’s worth acknowledging.

Penix doesn’t make full reads. He is required to look-off defenders and then come back to the intended target. Half-field reads and throwing to well-schemed open receivers is the order of the day — not throwing into tight, complex windows. There’s a ton of pitch-and-catch that is practically worthless from a pro-evaluation sense because he will not get to do that in the NFL. He’s also worked in this scheme for years, mastering it. He’ll need to start from scratch at the next level. For this reason, there’s a high degree of projection required.

Further to this, he has an excellent left tackle, is barely ever pressured and he’s throwing to NFL receivers against overmatched opponents.

Some teams will be enamoured by the arm talent. His arm is well worth taking a chance on. Jim Nagy mentioned this week on a podcast that Al Davies would’ve taken Penix Jr very early because of the arm. Maybe ‘son of Al’ will do so too for the Raiders? They need a QB. Either way, he will have suitors prepared to draft him early while others will be more sceptical. Personally, I see both sides. Yet Penix Jr’s arm is to die for and I wouldn’t bet against him for that reason.

Penix is the #1 ranked QB per PFF with a 93.4 grade.

Tyler Van Dyke vs North Carolina

TVD’s stock has been a bit of a rollercoaster. From showing great promise two seasons ago, to collapsing last season as Mario Cristobal’s wretched offense infected Miami. Now, things have levelled off and I think we’ve come to learn where his stock rests as a consequence.

Van Dyke is big, strong and makes some really nice throws. He also isn’t that creative and while he can execute within structure to a high level at times, there isn’t any special creativity or improv — which feels increasingly necessary to be a first round pick.

He did have a beautiful throw on a wheel route up the left sideline for a touchdown. He was hammered at the 45-yard-line by a defender but still delivered a perfectly weighted throw with pinpoint accuracy 35/40-yards downfield, allowing the receiver to catch it in stride and score. It’s a really nice play:

Absolute DIME from Tyler Van Dyke👀

pic.twitter.com/swvM0Se62S

— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 15, 2023

The other side was on show too in this game. Van Dyke threw an ugly interception in the third quarter, dropping back to his own five-yard-line while not noticing the sitting defender under-cutting the route. The linebacker read the play easily and the quarterback never saw him lurking even though it looked fairly obvious on tape. He locked on to his target and didn’t move off him. It’s a bad, basic error and cost his team seven points.

He had an excellent fourth and 10 throw — a pro-throw — for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. We see a good throwing base, he reads the route well, he places the football exactly where it needs to go right down the line and it was into tight coverage. This is another excellent example of what he can do.

Van Dyke had another late touchdown with 2:22 remaining where he set perfectly, saw the 1v1 outside and lofted a beautifully timed pass downfield from his own 45-yard-line. The ball flew about 35-40 yards downfield for a receiver to catch in stride for a touchdown.

He wasn’t elusive when UNC brought pressure and he can be leaden-footed when contained in the pocket. He’s not a slouch as an athlete. He can do a bootleg perfectly well and when he has to get on the move to extend plays, he can. Yet the NFL is increasingly looking for a young QB who can either scramble around to create or can be adept with their footwork to extend within the pocket. That isn’t TVD.

I think he’s a classic day two quarterback pick. He’s big, strong and has a decent arm. He’s not a bad athlete for his size but not particularly creative or elusive either. He lacks the magical qualities to go higher but there’s a little glitz to some of his throws. Someone will take a shot, I think, in round two or three with the hope that he can become a reasonable starter, while probably knowing he’s unlikely to be elite.

He is PFF’s fifth ranked QB with an impressive 91.5 grade.

Drake Maye vs Miami

I feel like the only person who ever says anything non-gushing about Maye. Twitter was awash all weekend with nonsense about him going before Caleb Williams. That would be nuts. Williams had a carless performance against Notre Dame and it might act as a useful kick up the backside, given reports today that he might seek an ownership percentage in his first contract (come on). However, he is clearly also so unbelievably talented and the rightful #1 pick next year.

Maye is an intriguing player too but this idea that he’s a top-five lock is hard to fathom.

He should’ve thrown an interception on his first possession. Maye felt pressure on his own 20-yard-line and tried to escape but couldn’t. Thus, he just lobbed the ball up for grabs and two defenders got in each others’ way — with a linebacker tipping it away from the grateful hands of a DB, who was about to make the pick. It’s a huge error by the quarterback and we do see moments like this. Maye pushes his luck and sometimes gets away with it but sometimes doesn’t. The NFL won’t be so forgiving.

This play the week prior was a good example. It ended up being a touchdown but could’ve easily been a horrible interception on a lousy throw behind the receiver, who bails Maye out:

Kobe Paysour saving Drake Maye from another bad interception from Maye this season.

Just an incredible catch, and run after the catch, from Paysour. Maye can still have these bad moments of erratic throws in his arm #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/Cg6iSZYZgb

— The Whole Delivery (@TWDTV1) October 7, 2023

Back to the Miami game and he bounced back on the next drive, scrambling to his left and throwing across his body while delivering a perfect throw to an open receiver down the left sideline. These are the two contrasts with Maye. The creativity and improv to make big things happen but also the risk-taking and frustrating, avoidable mistakes that are also a part of his game.

He scrambles well for his size and can be a plus runner. When he plays within structure he’s very good at letting things develop and executing. He has the arm to fit the ball into tight windows across the middle. There are no physical limitations here. However, sometimes the head and the body aren’t necessarily co-operating.

He threw wildly with 1:15 left in the first half and completely missed the receiver, almost throwing it straight to a defender. There were some inaccurate throws and some avoidable sacks too.

A deep-shot touchdown to Tez Walker was badly played by the last defender who jumped too early and once he didn’t tip the (slightly under-thrown) pass, it was a simple TD. On Walker’s next score, it was awful coverage leaving him wide open across the middle, then a missed tackle enabled him to find the end zone with YAC.

Maye clearly has appealing tools — size, arm and mobility. He’s a very solid prospect who will find a home in round one. I still think some of the hype is over the top. He’s a good, fascinating player who deserves to be praised as a prospect. The idea he could go before Caleb Williams, though, simply isn’t true.

For what it’s worth, Maye is the 16th ranked QB per PFF with an 85.6 grade.

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Geno Smith isn’t a bad quarterback. Far from it.

There are others who are worse. It’s not a huge problem for the Seahawks to have Smith as their starter in 2023 and perhaps even 2024.

That said, in 12 months time they can’t afford to be sitting with the same two quarterbacks on their active roster.

This is a team that is developing well. The last two drafts were A+ efforts. Key free agent signings such as Dre’Mont Jones are starting to make an impact. The defense is improving and could become a legit identity and strength. They have talented players on offense, defense and special teams.

However, I don’t think the Seahawks have a quarterback who can be the difference in key moments. Sunday in Cincinnati showed that to me. The defense shut down the opponent. You’re consistently in scoring range in the red-zone. You don’t execute and you throw away a win you really should’ve had.

That’s when your quarterback steps up to the plate.

Everything was there. His left tackle was back on the field. Smith had all of his weapons available. Go and finish the job.

I appreciate the pass-protection was poor against the Bengals. However, Smith was also hesitant throughout the day. This was especially the case on the final play of the game. He admitted after that Colby Parkinson was the initial read. Parkinson was running to the left pylon in what had to be a quick throw to a spot delivered with anticipation. Instead, Smith was far too late, held on to the ball and never gave any receiver or tight end an opportunity to make a play. You cannot eat the pressure in that situation, the ball has to come out.

There were other moments of hesitancy too, including this egregious missed opportunity to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a play Pete Carroll described on Monday as one they’d been working on all week:

After a well scripted opening drive, executed to perfection, the Seahawks scored just six points for the remaining three quarters, eight minutes and 38 seconds.

Since the Tampa Bay game in Germany last year, the Seahawks have a 6-8 record with Smith at quarterback. He is not the only reason why they don’t have a better record but we’ve now nearly played a full slate of 17 games since the ‘hot start’ of 2022. Seattle’s win/loss record since then is distinctly average and aside from some notable exceptions (Detroit on the road) so is Smith’s play.

He’s thrown 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions during this spell. It’s a fairly unremarkable statistic — basically 1.5 touchdowns a game compared to 0.8 interceptions. However, as we noted at the end of last season, the number of turnovers could’ve been far higher. He had unnatural turnover fortune in 2022. On average 80.6% of a quarterback’s turnover worthy plays result in actual turnovers. Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays result in a turnover.

Given the dropped red-zone interception we saw at the end of the Bengals game, that lucky streak is continuing it seems — although he’s now only throwing one touchdown a game compared to 0.6 turnovers per week.

His passer rating since the Tampa Bay game last year is a fairly average 93.5. His QBR, if you prefer that method, is 53.6. For context, Kenny Pickett had a 53.6 QBR in 2022 as a rookie.

For all the feel-good nature of Smith’s improbable explosion at the start of last season, not to mention the Seahawks’ surprising 6-3 start against the odds, he’s since been an unspectacular quarterback leading a 6-8 record.

Just look at his 2023 season so far. An excellent performance against Detroit (Seattle seems to be their kryptonite) is off-set with a poor performance against the Bengals, a horrible second half against the Rams, a bad first half against the Panthers and a forgettable performance against the Giants where he spent the second half trying to fight everyone. Smith has five touchdowns and three interceptions in five games. He’s on pace for a 17/10 touchdown/interception ratio. The Seahawks are a ‘meh’ 3-2.

All of this is fine if we embrace Smith as a bridge to whatever comes next. With that mentality, all of these statistics and records are more than tolerable.

Is that how the Seahawks view things though? Is he a bridge? Or are they seriously viewing him as ‘the answer’?

That question won’t be answered until next March or April — but it’ll have me thinking about it with every squandered game like Sunday.

Certainly there are plenty of people prepared to tell you ‘Geno is the man’ and that they’ve ‘found their quarterback’. That’s a position I’m not comfortable with. It places the Seahawks in a position where, similar to the Vikings over the years with Kirk Cousins, you might always have a limited ceiling without finding an upgrade.

The Vikings haven’t done enough to improve (spending one third round pick on Kellen Mond) and I hope the Seahawks also don’t fall into that trap. Minnesota wasted years on Cousins, not to mention a lot of money.

I would argue Smith’s statistics and Seattle’s record over the last 14 games (heck, the last five games) show there is a limited ceiling currently.

As I keep noting, they’re set to pay Smith anywhere between $31.1m and $41.1m next season depending on whether he hits his accelerators. At the moment, it is looking like it could be a challenge to match last year’s numbers for touchdowns, yards, completions and passer rating. It’s $2m a pop for each of those. The nine wins might be easier to achieve. Even at $33.3m, a difficult conversation is required at the end of the season.

With so little to spend (a projected $7.3m only in 2024, all of it rolled over from this year) and several starters needing to be retained or replaced, the question of Smith’s contract feels to me like a weekly talking point until the season concludes. He either needs to prove emphatically it’s a non-issue by performing at a high standard consistently, or we need to talk about it.

This isn’t a situation like last year where he was a glorious bargain. Every game in 2023 is a chapter in a story that will determine whether he’s value for money in 2024 — at a critical point in the most recent Seahawks reset.

It isn’t just about money though. It’s about the fact that Smith is replaceable. Just as Alex Smith was in Kansas City. Just as Carson Wentz was in Philadelphia. Just as Jimmy Garoppolo was in San Francisco.

All of those teams had ‘adequate’ quarterback situations. All aggressively sought to improve, provide competition and look for more. San Francisco’s attempt admittedly has been a bit of an adventure — but all three were able to improve their situations by not settling and they’re better for it.

I hope the Seahawks won’t settle either. It’s easier to tolerate the performance level, win/loss record and statistics with Smith if you know it’s a means to an end. If you have a younger, talented option waiting in the wings — developing and learning — as a fan I think you can see what the plan is.

I suppose the level of unknown at the moment is the troubling thing. We just don’t know what they think and won’t have answers for months.

I don’t think Drew Lock will prove to be the long term solution at quarterback. If he was, he probably would’ve won the job in the first place. So do they seriously think Geno Smith can lead the Seahawls to the promise land? Or are they prepared to go and draft a QB next year to make Smith the bridge he’s suited to be? Or make Lock the bridge?

That to me is the priority for this team. A lot of the pieces are there but they need a quarterback who can win that game in Cincinnati. That can lead this team to more than 6-8 over a 14-game stretch. That can get them to 5-0 or 4-1 instead of 3-2.

I do think there are quarterbacks in the 2024 draft who can potentially get them there.

Spencer Rattler has matured so much since transferring to South Carolina. You can see his processing, decision making and willingness to play within structure is a world away from the freelancing we saw in Oklahoma. He always had a brilliant arm and natural talent. Now he’s showing he can be a proper quarterback too. Plus he’s doing it behind a horrendous O-line in the SEC — there’s plenty of transferable tape to watch. Rattler used to be mocked in the top-five for a reason and he deserves more attention than he’s getting.

Michael Penix Jr is going to start being mocked higher than he should be. While Twitter/X and elements of the media will get a bit carried away, the reality is he’s played exclusively in a system that isn’t very transferable. He’s very rarely pressured, plays a lot of ‘pitch and catch’ and ‘I’ll just throw deep and see what happens’, he throws to great receivers with a top-notch left tackle and it’s nothing like the environment he’ll face in the future. The NFL is a totally different beast and it’s difficult to project how he will handle it. He also has an injury history. That said, he has a golden arm to die for and the best quarterbacks in the league have elite arm talent. I don’t think it’s as improbable as some are suggesting that he’d be in range for Seattle and if he’s there, it wouldn’t be a bad idea at all to take a chance on his wonderful arm.

Quinn Ewers is erratic and can be frustrating at times. However, he also has the Aaron Rodgers ‘wrist-flick’ where the ball just flies out of his hand with a rapid release. The word on the street seems to be that scouts loves the upside with Ewers and while there’s certainly some up-and-down tape, I can well imagine John Schneider thinking he has the talent to reach the highest level.

I could mention others. I really like Riley Leonard for example but his high ankle sprain creates a question mark over whether he’ll declare. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye will be out of range it seems. It’s a deep quarterback class as everyone knows by now.

By April next year, it should be a strong consideration for this team to go and try to add the player to bring this altogether. They’d be justified in being aggressive to acquire that individual, too.

Until then, Smith is an adequate bridge and an inadequate long term answer. Geno being Seattle’s Alex Smith is preferable. Being Seattle’s Kirk Cousins is not.

Now they need to try and find the man who can replace him in the future and take Seattle from where they are now to the next level.

In 2012 they did just that. A year later, they were Champions.

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The frustrating thing about this game is how winnable it was.

The Bengals have been one of the AFC’s best for the last two years. For whatever reason, they’re stuttering and stalling. After a couple of really good initial drives, Joe Burrow and the offense fell asleep. Defensively, they can play far better than they have done so far.

Yet the Seahawks couldn’t capitalise thanks to an awful offensive display.

They had absolutely no answers in the red zone. The Bengals just had to bring pressure and that was it. Job done. Seattle had no way of working anything out when one play over multiple red zone visits would’ve won the contest.

After a concerning start on defense, the unit turned things around and were superb. They deserved for the offense to get the job done. They failed, badly.

It was painful to watch frankly. There was very little creativity or problem solving. The red zone work was so brain meltingly bad. Geno Smith was hesitant and jittery, taking key sacks or holding on to the ball in big moments.

A friend of mine who isn’t a big NFL fan happened to watch the game. He text me immediately just saying, ‘your QB needs to throw it mate’. Too true.

We said this game would be a gauge for the team. So it proved. I think today we received evidence that Smith is merely a bridge quarterback. He is not the answer. He is not going to get this team to where it needs to get to.

The hesitancy was paired with bad decision making, avoidable sacks, an inability to diagnose the blitzing and find solutions. He had several opportunities to get the job done and he couldn’t do it.

His first interception was a horrendous decision. What did he see to think throwing into blanket coverage to Jaxon Smith-Njogba was a good idea? It very much felt like he was desperate to get JSN more involved, so just threw it his way anyway. What a horrible miscalculation, given it robbed the Seahawks of three points in a tight game.

The second pick was a complete miscommunication between Smith and D.K. Metcalf. I’m sure blame can be apportioned both ways but either way it was ugly.

Shane Waldron isn’t absolved of blame. The red zone issues are on him too. You have to find some answers.

However, this season is a big one for Smith. As we’ve documented, he’s due anywhere between $31.1m and $41.1m next year. He has to show he’s worthy of that salary.

That doesn’t mean he has to match Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. He can’t be a key reason why you lose though. On a day like this, doing the little things well would’ve been enough. He couldn’t do it.

We all want the Seahawks to be great, not good. Smith has to be the placeholder to someone who can deliver greatness.

The roster is being built nicely. The Seahawks might lack blue-chip elite players like the 49ers but it’s a developing roster.

They need a quarterback who can win games like this.

Yes, the Detroit performance was excellent. Now we’ve had a poor display here, a horror-show second half against the Rams, a bad first half against the Panthers and a forgettable performance against the Giants where he spent the second half wanting to fight everyone.

He has five touchdowns and three interceptions in five games. The Seahawks are 3-2. Let’s embrace it. Quarterback is a need, has to be a strong consideration in any draft thoughts for 2024 and the Seahawks need to find someone who can win games like this.

There are positives from the game, mostly on defense (with a shout-out to Jake Bobo). The defense was great. It’s hard to focus on positives after watching the offense though.

There’s a big difference between 4-1 and 3-2. The late part of the season is such a murderers’ row of opponents that dropping games early is going to be a problem.

Blowing this game is going to make for a difficult week. It’ll be difficult to get over.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Now here comes a proper test.

At 3-1, the Seahawks have a loss to an inferior Rams team, a close win over a competitive Lions team and wins over two teams that are in utter disarray. Have they gained muscle mass from their three-game win streak or is that bulk just fat from an all-cupcake diet? Time to find out.

It is very possible that this game against the Bengals could prove to be a turning point. A win would take them to 4-1 and give them enough momentum to consider the next five games as winnable (Cardinals and Browns at home, a trip to Baltimore, a home game against Washington and a road trip to play the Rams again).

That in turn would give them enough mojo to take on the serious tests the rest of the way (a home and away matchup with the Niners sandwiched around a game in Dallas followed by a home game with the NFC Champ Eagles coming to town). An 8-2 record going into that stretch would be far more confidence-inspiring than, say, 6-4.

Now is the time to get started on that run.

This week’s game could be an ideal scenario to start it. The Bengals are a beatable team. Despite Joe Burrow apparently returning to health and putting on a scary display with Ja’Marr Chase last week, their offensive line is a bit of a mess and they can neither run the ball nor defend the run very well at all, ranking next to last in the NFL in both categories. The Seahawks must exploit these weaknesses in order to win this game.

They will also need to contend with themselves a bit. As a team, they are a bit of a walking contradiction.

They are 0-3 coming off a bye week the last three years. However, in that same span they are 7-3 in 10am games. They are the #6 scoring offense but cannot convert third downs and too often leave opponents in games. They were one of the weakest pass-defending teams in the NFL in the first three weeks and then exploded against the Giants and their disaster of an offensive line two weeks ago. They have two very promising tailbacks but have not fully deployed them as a critical part of their offense yet.

I suppose all teams have these types of contradictions. And yet, the ones that end up succeeding are able to reconcile them on the good side of the ledger. This game presents a prime chance for the Seahawks to do it.

The Seahawks Need to Play a Clean, Smart Game

The highlight reels from the Cardinals game were rightfully focused on Chase’s three-touchdown day, including a 63-yard bomb where Chase made a fantastic adjustment to the ball in the air. The offense seemed back in prime form and cruised to a 14-point victory.

Let’s be right – the Bengals were nowhere near their best. The Cardinals were their plucky selves and were in the game well into the fourth quarter — but made several tactical mistakes that doomed them.

They were leading 14-10 deep in their own zone with a minute and change to go in the half. They just needed to burn the clock and get into the locker room with a lead. Instead, Josh Dobbs threw a horrible pick-six to give the Bengals a 17-14 lead. Burrow then came right out of the locker room and hit Chase on that deep pass for a 24-14 lead.

That is a big swing to recover from. They very nearly did. Arizona drove for a touchdown and then intercepted Burrow on the very next drive. With the help of a 41-yard trick reverse run play, they drove deep into Bengal territory. They sputtered at the Bengal 16-yard line and faced a decision: Kick a field goal to narrow the lead to one point or go for it on fourth and one.

They chose poorly. They called a Joshua Dobbs run. Not a sneak – a run. He got into the flat and Jermaine Pratt stopped him for a loss and a turnover on downs. The Bengals drove the field for a touchdown to make it 31-20. On the ensuing drive, the Cardinals, with time and options, fumbled the ball and the Bengals recovered. Ballgame.

This is what good teams do. When they are not having their best game, they still find ways to win. The Bengals took advantage of the opportunities the Cardinals handed them. The Cardinals did not.

The Seahawks have excelled in turnover differential this year with six takeaways and only one giveaway (the Geno Smith interception intended for Jaxon Smith-Njigba). Playing a tough opponent on the road, with one of the NFL’s best quarterback-wide receiver combos on the other side, they cannot afford to give them extra chances — be it from turnovers or challenging play calls at critical times of the game.

They also must solve their third-down problems. Sustaining drives keeps Burrow and Chase on the bench. I guarantee you, against those two, every three-and-out the Seahawk offense gets is playing with fire.

If only there was some way the Seahawks could simultaneously move the ball down the field, while eating the clock and scoring points…

Feature the Run Game and Do Not Get Away From It

Another contradiction. While the Bengals gave up 142 yards on the ground to Arizona on only 22 attempts on Sunday, the bulk of those yards came from three explosive runs. They got 87 yards on those three runs and the other 19 runs gained them 55 yards.

This continued a trend of sorts by the Bengals defense. They are next to last in the NFL in rushing defense but those yards come in infrequent, big chunks of explosive plays and are sandwiched around several small gainers. Have a look at this chart of their four worst rush defense games this year. Notice the pattern.

Cincinnati’s defense is not one that gets routinely gashed for 7-9 yards on every run. They surround good solid stops with undisciplined, explosive plays.

Have a look at the NextGen charts for Nick Chubb, Gus Edwards and Derrick Henry against them in their games:

Look at all that green. Gorgeous. It’s there for you if you want it and are willing to commit to it, Seattle. You just have to be smart enough and determined enough.

One more bit of dumping on Arizona: in the second quarter they forced the Bengals to punt. They had a 14-10 lead and at that point had rushed for 49 yards on the ground already. Starting at their own 30-yard line, they chose to throw the ball three times — all incompletions. They punted. Burrow drove them to the 1-yard line before failing to score and then Dobbs threw that ugly pick-six from his own end zone.

After that, the Cardinals got the ball back. They ran James Connor for six yards but threw two incompletions, leading to another punt and the Bengals nearly got another shot at the end zone before the half was over.

I am not saying conclusively that all that happened because Arizona did not run enough on those series. However, when you are running the ball with success on one of the worst defenses in the NFL, why in God’s name would you stop?

And that is exactly what the Seahawks need to remind themselves of in this game. Why are we choosing not to run? They’ve played some pretty porous defenses so far and for some reason have elected not to base their attack on the ground game. The ground game they have invested two very high picks in.

That needs to end Sunday.

Defend the Short to Intermediate Passing Game – Win the Adjustment War

All right, one more dig at Arizona.

Last week, the Cardinals were getting after Burrow in the first half. They’d sacked him three times and pressured him at other times. Cincinnati’s offensive line was letting rushers through without much blitzing.

Zac Taylor and the staff made an adjustment at halftime. After Burrow came out and hit that 63-yard beauty, they cut back to a quick passing game with timing and rhythm. You saw the Chase highlights but there were many other plays they were so in-sync, Burrow could have walked the ball to him for 10 yards. He ended up with 15 catches.

It was mostly a slant or a simple in-breaking route. A typical crosser that teams see all the time. Yet his deep speed and the memory of that big touchdown kept the corners at arms’ length and Chase (and to a lesser extent Trenton Irwin) had free reign to run over the middle.

Burrow is brilliant at these routine throws. Most young quarterbacks are able to do the spectacular right out of the gate but struggle with these ‘this is what wins games’ type throws. Not Burrow. He reads defenses, sees where receivers will be open and delivers the ball with heat and accuracy.

He is currently one of the quickest pocket throwers in the NFL, averaging only 2.1 seconds in the pocket. On those average plays, unless there is a complete jailbreak on the offensive line – which is a possibility – the defense will have to be very selective on when they blitz and take full advantage of those plays Burrow needs more time to make his throw.

With Coby Bryant and Artie Burns injured, it appears that Devon Witherspoon will primarily play at nickel and Mike Jackson and Tre Brown will line up outside opposite Riq Woolen.

I wrote last week that the defense will need a find a way to slow down these short passes that keep them on the field, whether that is through timely blitzing and winning the pass rush battle or smartly covering these routes. Or both. That is just as true, if not more so, this week.

Pete Carroll and Clint Hurtt have had a bye week to examine what is happening in pass defense and make adjustments. Do not doubt that Zac Taylor and Joe Burrow have been studying them as well.

It is time to see what this team is made of.

I’m going to start by producing some notes on two players I wanted to discuss today, then do a quick breakdown of some of the tier 1-3 players I’ve watched so far.

Justin Eboigbe is one to watch

I like watching Alabama defensive linemen because they generally have to be versatile and it’s easy to see how they translate to the next level. This is very different to the stunt-heavy, difficult-to-project edge rushers who play for the Crimson Tide. The big-bodied D-liners are in there being forceful, violent and it all translates.

I was a big fan of Byron Young a year ago and suspect the Seahawks were hoping he’d be there in round three. He fit perfectly what they were looking for in a D-liner. Similarly, I think Eboigbe will carry a lot of appeal.

He’s a different type of player to Young who had a more conventional interior D-line body (but could play defensive end in certain schemes). Eboigbe is listed at 6-5 and 292lbs but looks closer to the 280lbs range on the field. He’s a very mature, hard-nosed player and a former four-star recruit who’s been at Alabama since 2019.

Like Young, he’s not blowing anyone away with elite twitchy speed either off the edge or shooting gaps. He is a tremendously powerful, disruptive force. Whether he lines up off the edge or inside, he consistently drives blockers backwards into the pocket using heavy hands. He appears to have good length and extends to keep his frame clean. He shifts around the line and attacks from different positions but time and time again on tape you see the same thing. He wins his 1v1 match-up by gaining position and disrupting.

Young would often shoot-gaps to take away a lane or to contain the edge. He was also very strong at the POA and could control his blocks. As the year went on, he started to impact games and his ability to soak up linemen created opportunities for others. Eboigbe has basically started the season how Young finished 2022. He’s already drawing attention, holding his own in the running game, gaining position to force runs back inside and driving tackles backwards with power.

I do think he’s a better athlete than Young and you do see some quickness and agility when attacking gaps.

For me he just looks like a pro. Given his age and time in college football, plus his frame, that’s not a big surprise. As a player who can rotate and be flexible across the line, he could be an excellent option for the Seahawks in the next draft — provided there are no lasting issues from a neck injury suffered a year ago.

I’m still really torn on Drake Maye

He has the size, he’s a decent athlete, he has a good arm. There were times again on Saturday in a blowout win against Syracuse where he looked really good. He has improv quality that shines through on tape — making things happen. He had a couple of really well placed passes hitting receivers in stride. There were big-time throws on display as there always is with Maye.

However, there were also moments where you’re left scratching your head. Hesitation in his own end-zone when the situation called for urgency. Missed scoring opportunities. A throw that was so far behind his receiver and could’ve picked, only for the receiver to make one of the most improbable grabs all year with his trailing arm and actually run it in for a big touchdown, generously padding the stats in the process.

There’s a real boom/bust quality to him. The great moments have you nodding along with approval. The bad moments just leave you wondering ‘WTF just happened?’

I suspect he probably will be a very early pick because this is a bad draft at the top of round one. I currently only have Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr and Brock Bowers as ‘legit’ early picks. I’m toying with Tyler Guyton going in that category, plus Jeremiah Trotter. Right now though, this looks like a class full of day two picks and very few players you’d be ecstatic to select in round one (it’s still early though).

I think he’s a more creative Jared Goff. Which might not be too bad. It’s not that exciting either. I think Caleb Williams is in a class of his own in terms of the 2024 draft. Maye has the tools you look for in a NFL passer but I just wish we could see a bit more consistency. I keep thinking back to the South Carolina vs North Carolina game. UNC and Maye won but Rattler looked better despite facing far more adversity.

Tier 1 players (so far) — legit R1

Before I get into the list (which is in no particular order) — a reminder I have not watched all players who could realistically be listed in these ranges. Some won’t be listed on purpose, others because I haven’t studied them enough yet. I’m happy to clarify in the comments on certain players.

Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
Marvin Harrison Jr (WR, Ohio State)
Brock Bowers (TE, Georgia)
Tyler Guyton (T, Oklahoma)

It’s looking like a very thin ‘top of round one’ at the moment. Williams has everything you want in a quarterback in 2023. Harrison Jr has an opportunity to provide a team with an instant #1 target, while Bowers could provide the same kind of threat as a ‘big slot’ type. Guyton for me is a perfect blend of size, athleticism and power and he could easily be this year’s answer to Darnell Wright.

Tier 2 players (so far) — potential first rounders

Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
Riley Leonard (QB, Duke)
Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Rome Odunze (WR, Washington)
Xavier Legette (WR, South Carolina)
Ja’Tavion Sanders (TE, Texas)
Graham Barton (T, Duke)
Joe Alt (T, Notre Dame)
Olumuyiwa Fashanu (T, Penn State)
Chop Robinson (EDGE, Penn State)
Jared Verse (EDGE, Florida State)
Jeremiah Trotter (LB, Clemson)

Rattler is propping up an otherwise lacklustre South Carolina team (with a shocking O-line) but the execution now matches the natural talent and he deserves a lot more attention than he’s getting. Leonard was incredibly impressive pre-injury and has a ton of next-level potential. Maye, as discussed, is superb at his best and confusing at his worst but the talent is there. Penix Jr’s arm strength is to die for.

Odunze combines natural receiving skill, big play ability, speed and an outstanding personality/character to likely ensure an eventual home in round one. Legette is one of the big movers this season — showing off X-factor playmaking ability, size and speed. Sanders needs to be more consistent and he’s a receiving threat rather than a complete tight end but you can’t ignore the athletic tools.

Barton is consistently brilliant for Duke. He missed their last game with injury but he’s a picture of consistency, brute force and talent. Alt has had some rough snaps this year but has the size to switch over to the right side where he’s better suited. Fashanu has as much physical potential as anyone in this class but there are still technical improvements to be had.

Robinson is a twitched up ball of energy and agility. His play doesn’t match the production but he follows a growing line of Penn State defenders with enticing athletic qualities. Verse’s play started strong and has dipped a bit but provided he tests as well as expected, he can come into the league and impact games. Trotter is a superb, impactful linebacker who is constantly around the ball and deserves more attention.

Select Tier 3 players (so far) — Day two picks

This is just a selection of players I like, not the full list of tier three prospects, which is far bigger (I currently have exactly 50 players listed and I have a lot more to watch and potentially add). I’ll include more names as we go along and reveal the full list when I publish my horizontal board later in the year. This is going to be where the meat of the class is I think.

Some of these players could easily bump up a round.

Will Howard (QB, Kansas State)
Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky)
Ben Sinnott (TE, Kansas State)
Cooper Beebe (G, Kansas State)
Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
Charles Turner (C, LSU)
Steve Linton (DE, Texas Tech)
McKinley Jackson (DT, Texas A&M)
Howard Cross (DT, Notre Dame)
Byron Murphy (DT, Texas)
Tyleik Williams (DT, Ohio State)
Jer’Zhan Newton (DT, Illinois)
T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)
Justin Eboigbe (DE, Alabama)

Howard makes too many bad decisions but I just love the way he makes technical throws over the middle into tight windows, has excellent size and he’s a great athlete. There’s plenty to work with. Ewers is too erratic but the simple fact is when he throws the ball, he has the same ‘flick of the wrist’ brilliance Aaron Rodgers has. The natural talent is obvious but he needs more game-time. Will he get that beyond 2023 with Arch Manning waiting in the wings? Or does he turn pro?

Corley has a good, solid frame but combines it with the twitchy-quickness of a smaller, dynamic receiver. He’s exciting to watch. There’s depth, unsurprisingly, at receiver again this year. Sinnott is just a wonderful player to watch and he can do a bit of everything at tight end. Whoever drafts Beebe or Van Pran will solidify an interior O-line position for many years. Turner’s passion for the game, fierce competitiveness and length shows up on tape at center. I really like him. Linton has length, size and twitch and he carries a ton of potential as an edge rusher.

Jackson is my favourite defensive tackle in this class so far. He’s a warrior — eating blocks, providing more pass-rush than he’ll be credited for, playing every down like it’s his last. He is the heart and soul of Texas A&M. Notre Dame’s Cross is a close second thanks to his motor, quickness to shoot gaps and disruptive playmaking ability. Texas’ Murphy is small like Cross but he’s an amazing athlete. Williams at Ohio State takes most of the defensive snaps for a reason and Illinois’ Newton can be a big-time disruptor on his day. Texas’ Sweat has seen his play improve dramatically in 2023 to the point where he’s massive but is playing with surprising agility and twitch for a 360lber. He has caught the eye in every game and has the highest pass rush win percentage among interior linemen playing a minimum of 20% snaps (21.2%). Eboigbe, as mentioned above, looks like he could play NFL football today.

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Apologies I’ve been quiet for a few days. Saturday was a hectic day-job day, Sunday I was at the Bills vs Jaguars game and today I attended my uncle’s funeral. I managed to squeeze in some college football when I could, so here are some brief notes…

— The more I watch the more underwhelmed I am with this draft class. There’s depth at certain positions (QB, DT) but a lack of top-end quality. There’s a distinct lack of outside pass rush with blue-chip potential, I’m struggling to find dynamic players in the secondary and aside from Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr and Brock Bowers — it’s really difficult to identify top-10 prospects. Unless you pick right at the top of round one, this could be one of the worst draft’s in years to possess a high pick.

— This was a really poor week for quarterbacks. Kansas State’s Will Howard did not play well in a loss to Oklahoma State with some ugly turnovers. I’ve no idea what Quinn Ewers was doing with his first of two interceptions against Oklahoma. It was a totally careless, bizarre error. He hesitates on the throw, clearly doesn’t like the look and yet throws it anyway. Why? He remains erratic although he settled into the game and showed off easy arm strength (he can flick his wrist like a certain former Green Bay QB). Cam Ward threw a couple of interceptions. All three lost. I was particularly keen to see more of Howard and while there were some mitigating circumstances in his display, he still played poorly. I didn’t see Drake Maye or UNC this week and I’ve only watched highlights from Williams/USC. Spencer Rattler and Michael Penix Jr didn’t play.

— I don’t understand why LSU’s Maason Smith continues to be projected by some as a high pick. He looks cumbersome and awkward to me and LSU’s defense continues to toil. He was credited with a sack against Missouri but what actually happened was he grabbed the QB’s facemask and pulled him down to the turf. No flag was thrown in one of the worst decisions of the season. I also thought Ohio State duo Michael Hall Jr and Tyleik Williams played within themselves, as did Texas’ vaunted D-line. Howard Cross was typically active but stayed stuck on a few too many blocks against Louisville. A disappointing week.

— Let me chuck in a positive. I like the look of Missouri QB Brady Cook. He’s only a junior and could do with staying for his senior season, adding some size/power and playing more games. However, he has a good arm and can complete difficult passes. He’s a really useful athlete when he needs to move around or scramble. He’s shown poise and accuracy this season. At the weekend he, like the QB’s mentioned above, had a bad interception. He threw the ball straight to a DB when the read was never there, similar to Ewers’ first pick. He also had a desperate heave with 37 seconds remaining that led to a pick-six and a fumble in the game. However, he also suffered a number of dropped passes and Mizzou really shot themselves in the foot against LSU. They should’ve won. Cook is one to monitor for the future.

— The other big positive for me is the continued performance of Oklahoma tackle Tyler Guyton, who I wrote about last week. He’s so big and athletic — with the ability to get into position with ease and then use his physical tools to maximum effect. Every time I watch him I come away impressed and there’s no doubt in my mind he’s turning into this year’s Darnell Wright. Few people were talking about Wright during the season a year ago but his performances were so good at right tackle, he stood out a mile during games. He was eventually drafted 10th overall. Don’t be surprised if Guyton similarly goes a lot earlier than anyone is projecting.