This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel.

The Seahawks are in the playoffs.  What a cherry on top of a season of surprises.

Do they have a shot against this San Francisco team that is currently on a ten-game winning streak and looking very, very tough?  They do.  

The Seahawks have won seven of their last 10 games in San Francisco, including three of their last four.  Granted, they got swept by the Niners this season and the talent and coaching gap between the teams seems more like a chasm than a small crack. Never discount division games though.  These two foes know each other better than anyone and in that realm, the Seahawks have a fighting chance to shock the NFL world.

How can they beat the odds?  They will need their best game of the season to do it.

No key fumbles or terrible decisions.  No crazy defensive breakdowns.  No bizarre challenges or wasted timeouts.  

A pure commitment to Seahawks football.

Pete Carroll needs to coach a game that the organization and fanbase can be proud of.  Those positive press statements he routinely makes after poor game performances that we scoff at?  Those are like deposits into a bank account.  It is time to cash them in and reach this team to put together a game that rewards his relentless faith.  There is no tomorrow.

What areas do they need to focus on and play effectively in order to have a chance to win?

Win the Turnover Battle

San Francisco has won thirteen games this year.  One of the biggest keys to their success?  Winning the turnover battle.  

The Niners are the NFL’s best team at it — entering the playoffs with a +13 rating.  In their current ten-game winning streak they are an amazing +16, generating 21 takeaways and only giving the ball back five times.

They have only lost four games this year.  They have only lost the turnover battle in four games this year.

Yup.  Turnovers are the stone that David could use to take out Goliath.

There is your banner headline.  For the Seahawks to have a fighting chance Saturday, there is no clearer path to victory than to protect the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense.

The Niners know this better than anyone.  Jaquiski Tartt makes a catch on the easiest moon-ball he will ever see in the NFC Championship Game and very likely the Niners make the Super Bowl last year.

This year though, it was the Seahawks’ turn.  We all got a front row seat to it in Week Fifteen.  Second quarter, Niners are up 7-3 at their own 36-yard line with the ball with two minutes to play.  Brock Purdy does not see Quandre Diggs and delivers a ball right between his numbers.  Diggs cannot complete the interception and a golden opportunity is missed.

51 seconds later, Travis Homer fumbles, San Francisco scores a gift touchdown and they enter halftime leading 14-3.  They take the third quarter kickoff and double-dip for another touchdown and that is the ballgame.  

We have talked about turnovers in the past.  The best way to win the day is to not turn the ball over.  Planning for your opponent to turn the ball over (especially when we are talking about the best in the NFL) is not a high-proposition strategy.

The Seahawks have eleven fumbles on the year.  Only six teams in the NFL had more this season.  In a win or go home tournament, the Seahawks cannot afford to be careless with the ball.

Interceptions though.  Here is the most critical part of the game.  San Francisco leads the NFL with 20 interceptions this year.  The Seahawks have only thrown 12, which is very good.  Only nine teams have less than the Seahawks.

But we all know Geno Smith’s challenges in the second half of the season.  Bad decisions and ill-chosen throws forced by a lack of adequate pass protection and a porous defense that cannot get him the ball back.  He could have 15 interceptions but defenders have helped him out by dropping the ball (or in the case of Week 15, a pick-6 got called back by a pretty weak roughing the passer call on Nick Bosa).

What can help Smith play better in this game?  First, he will need all of his cool and calm.  We have seen him throw some very ugly balls this year, then shake them off and lead a fantastic drive with laser precision.  He will need that mental state right from the start.  Show us something, Geno.

Another thing that can help him is to move his head clock up by half a heartbeat.  You know how we all set our alarm clock a few minutes ahead so we can cheat and hit the snooze button one more time in the morning?  That is exactly what Geno needs to do.  If he has no options after thousand-one, thousand-two, move those feet like the Devil’s after you.

Both Taylor Heinicke and Jarret Stidham had very effective days against this tough defense in Weeks Sixteen and Seventeen by employing this strategy.  They threw quick passes and if they were not there, utilized their scrambling ability often.  If that snap-drop-throw is not there, use your feet and create some extra time to find another option.

Have a look at this brilliant play by Heinicke.

The Commanders have a standard screen set up but John Bates cannot even begin to block Nick Bosa – even with a four-step head start (side note:  this is a good example of what Rob is talking about when he says explosive traits in pass rush prospects are important – Bosa is 20lbs heavier than Bates and is so quick he leaves him flailing).  On the other side, Talanoa Hufanga is blitzing.  They have Heinicke dead to rights from both sides.

Heinicke immediately picks up that the screen is dead, pivots and we’re off to some backyard football.  He eludes Hufanga and with Bosa bearing down, throws a strike to Jahan Dotson.

It is a great reaction to pressure, great athleticism and a great throw on the run.

Perhaps most important though it is a great decision.  Dotson is in a spot that only he can catch that ball.  It would still be a very good play if Dotson was blanketed and Heinicke just chucked it into the stands and lived to fight another day.

Geno Smith needs to deliver three or four plays like this on Saturday and avoid those desperate heaves with pressure in his face into very narrow windows.  Those types of plays can be the difference between winning and losing.

He has done it before.  He needs to do it again Saturday.

What about Brock Purdy?

The story of his emergence rivals Geno’s for Unlikeliest Success of the Year.  Kyle Shanahan has been able to integrate him into the offense without too much tailoring.

Purdy only has four interceptions.  I have watched all four.  There is bad news and good news.

The bad news is only one of the four were just flat-out his fault.  He scrambled to his left, saw Kittle deep and did not reset his body angle and made a poor mechanical throw that was picked off.

The other three were two non-critical situations (a fourth down throw and a late-game heave) and a perfect strike that the receiver bobbled and tipped and it was an easy pick.

That is incredible.  He has started five games and played in nine as the last pick in the draft and thrown a 67% completion rate.  Watching him, he demonstrates a natural feel and awareness that some five-year NFL quarterbacks do not have.  He keeps the offense on schedule and the Niners do not have to rely on their running game to carry the offense.

How has he had so much success?  That is where the good news comes from.

Kyle Shanahan has not adapted his offense for Purdy so much as narrowed the parameters.  He has Purdy getting rid of the ball as quickly as humanly possible.  His average time in the pocket is 2.1 seconds, easily one of the shortest in the NFL for starting quarterbacks this year.  His air yards per completion is 5.9 yards and is also one of the shortest.

Most NFL defenses can do a passable job of taking a first read away.  How is he doing that so well then?  Answer:  Kyle Shanahan.  He is so creative he usually is able to give Purdy two options available before the defense can even diagnose the play.  Purdy is fantastic at keeping his eyes up and his feet under him, so he is able to pick his option without having to completely reset his body.

It also dovetails nicely with his skillset as a quarterback.  Purdy does not have an NFL arm that will ever wow anyone.  He absolutely needs structure and scheming to make his throws work.  This offense is perfect for him, maybe even more so than Jimmy Garoppolo.  They rarely ask him to throw past the sticks.

Alright.  So, the good news is the Seahawks have defended this style several times over the years and done very well at it.

I cannot believe I am saying this but the Seahawks might benefit from looking at the way Ken Norton Jr’s defenses handled this offense in recent seasons.

It is a process.  The corners are critical.  They must be tight and sticky and the linebackers and safeties must clog those lanes.  Do not let him consistently have those quick passes.  Linemen have to accept that a good part of their day will be containing the pocket and getting their big paws up to bat down those quick passes.  Speedy types like Darryl Taylor and Boye Mafe will need to be ready when they are unleashed.

Taking away those simple options for Purdy will be critical.  He can be good throwing on the run and he is a good scrambler but here is where the potential for forcing turnovers comes into play with him.  Sometimes he gets too amped up with his scrambles and allows his mechanics to get sloppy.  His footwork can get out of sorts and without a rifle for an arm, he will give defenders chances for interceptions.

Another thing that works in the Seahawks’ favor is the matchup.  Which side of the field does Purdy have the most success throwing to?

Why, that is Tariq Woolen’s side.  If Woolen can have a game there, he can cut a big, big chunk of Purdy’s effectiveness out of his diet and force some of those erratic throws.

Watching Purdy play, I see at times the end result is not unlike Geno Smith.  Defenders are unable to finish the interception but it is not for a lack of chances.  His numbers are sparkling for his draft status but not unlike the Seahawks’ quarterback, they are hiding some deficiency.

With Geno, his kryptonite is decision-making under pressure.  With Purdy, it is his mechanics and having to learn his NFL strengths and weaknesses in real time.

Seahawks defenders must make him learn the hard way Saturday.  He only has five starts in the NFL.  They need to use that to their advantage, when the stakes are at their highest.

Run the ball

San Francisco has won thirteen games this year.  One of the biggest keys to their success?  Defending the run.

The Niners are nearly the NFL’s best team at it, entering the playoffs with the second-best run defense in the NFL, only giving up 77.7 yards per game on the ground.

They have only lost four games this year.  They have only given up 100 yards rushing in four games this year.

Yup.

Okay, close but not really.  Three of their four losses have featured them giving up 100+ yards.  The other?  They gave up 99 yards in Week One.  Close enough.

The game where they gave up 100+ yards and won?  The OT win over the Raiders.  In overtime Josh Jacobs was gashing the Niner defense and then Jarret Stidham turned back into a pumpkin and threw a horrible wobbly interception of his back foot.  Ballgame.

Those five best yardage games that San Francisco allowed?  The opposing teams only gained 3.77 yards per carry.  But they committed to the run game and did not waiver.  Four of those five featured several low or no-gain runs but also had more than one explosive run.  The Raiders game did not but three players all had runs of nine yards or more, which was just fine.

This defense is so good, you cannot game plan to attack a specific weakness because they do not have one.  Your best bet is to bring your lunch pail, hunker down and get ready for a tough game.

The Seahawks will need Ken Walker in his best form.  Deejay Dallas too.

We all know, however, that this is all about how the offensive line performs.  Will they be ready?

If you need a boost, Thinking Football just posted a pretty glowing review of the Seahawk line’s performance in the Rams game.

The short version is:  Abe Lucas is awesome, Damien Lewis is back to being Damien Lewis, Colby Parkinson is becoming a full-grown tight end and Charles Cross mixes good plays and plays that show he needs to get stronger (I can watch Cross manhandling Michael Hoecht on that Walker flip run all day long).

Of course, that was against the depleted Rams line and San Francisco is a much stiffer test.

To have a puncher’s chance, this line must come up with their best performance of the season on Saturday.  We will have to be patient if the run game is slow going but the game itself is a close one.  Have faith that Walker will eventually break one.

Other Key Points

The Niners defense is incredibly good at defending the middle of the field.  With their front four being able to create disruption and the quickness of their linebackers and Hufanga, they can close gaps in short order.

Just like the running game though, the Seahawks cannot be afraid to go to this area.  They have two tight ends who are impressive and one of the most effective plays in their arsenal against San Francisco has been getting Metcalf lined up in the slot and letting him win with speed if it is a linebacker, or size if it is a corner covering him.

Shane Waldron will need a creative day to put this all together.

****

Speaking of Metcalf, they badly need a big day from him.  He had another outburst last week and it could have cost the Seahawks the game if it had been flagged.  That cannot happen again Saturday.  You cannot brush off a timely penalty that hurts the team by saying he is ultra-competitive.  Competitors have situational awareness.

Metcalf has not had his best performances against San Francisco in the last three years.  He has not been awful but neither has he regularly brought his top game against them.  They have been more workman-like.  He has three touchdowns in the last six games against the Niners and has been targeted an average of nine times and gotten 66 yards.  He has one 100-yard day in those six games.  The Seahawks need to feed him liberally to keep the chains moving.

That means no drops and certainly no fumbles.

****

The defense cannot afford a poor day with their tackling in this game.  As we discussed above, the Niners’ offense is predicated on short, quick passing and yards after the catch.  

There is an argument to be made that if Purdy is on fire and regularly hitting his receivers, the defense can still stall the offense by taking the receivers down quickly.

This area has been very up and down for the team this year.  For the record, they had six missed tackles in their first matchup in San Francisco.  Not great but not awful either.  Their second matchup they had eleven missed tackles, their second-worst performance of the season.

This is unacceptable:

Brock Purdy and George Kittle connect for 2 touchdowns and the San Francisco 49ers clinch the NFC West with a 21-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks. #NFL #FTTB pic.twitter.com/o3Cu2m2JMZ

— For Future Considerations (@PodcastFFC) December 16, 2022

Yes, it has been widely discussed by Pete Carroll and Tariq Woolen that he blew the coverage on the play.  Yet those attempts by Diggs and Barton… if the Seahawks bring that level of energy on Saturday, the game will be over by halftime.

Christian McCaffrey is slippery and Deebo Samuel and Kittle are tough to bring down.  The defense must meet the moment and be mentally ready to wrap up and bring these guys to the ground over and over and over again.

Yesterday I wrote a piece discussing the possibility of John Schneider and Pete Carroll having different ideas for the off-season. I speculated that might be one of the reasons why there’s been a bit of internet chatter about Carroll’s desire to carry on coaching beyond this season.

Today I’m going to discuss the other side of the argument.

An article by Brady Henderson was brought to my attention. It discussed the future of Geno Smith and had some interesting elements that are worth breaking down:

The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.

This isn’t framed as an opinion. The article states what the team believes. This is sourced. This is from the Seahawks’ top brass. They think their scheme is quarterback friendly and they think they can find a cost-effective replacement for Smith if he doesn’t re-sign.

This isn’t insignificant.

Now, it could all be part of negotiating through the media. The Seahawks have dabbled in that over the years. It could be a dig in the ribs for Smith’s agency.

I’d go as far to say that’s pretty likely what this is. The Seahawks grabbing at some leverage, playing the game a little bit.

You can’t blame them. What else can they do? They can’t come out and talk about underwhelming performances and too many turnovers or near turnovers in the second half of the season. That would be a negotiation killer.

All they can do is set up the impression — whether it’s true or not — that they have a bunch of alternative options. Smith’s representatives will likely make a similar case on alternative suitors as both teams talk contract before free agency begins.

By suggesting the scheme is QB-friendly, they also subtly introduce the thought that Smith has succeeded as a 32-year-old not necessarily because of a career renaissance but because he has been set up to succeed by the system.

It also says to Smith — why would you want to play somewhere else? This scheme helps you shine.

Nevertheless, the line Henderson reports still suggests the Seahawks are prepared to move on. We’ve seen in the past talk of prioritising extending the contracts of Frank Clark and Jadeveon Clowney. Neither re-signed because the price was too high. This is a team that draws a line and tends to stick to it. If they are unwilling to meet Smith’s demands, they’ll likely stick to their guns even if it means looking elsewhere.

Carroll’s tone has also changed slightly. I asked him in Germany, following a NFL Network report about their keenness to keep Smith and Drew Lock, about his interest in keeping their QB’s:

Pete Carroll on Geno Smith’s (and Drew Lock’s) contract situation and whether talks could begin before the end of the season #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/QceEOw2Yp9

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) November 13, 2022

Understandably Carroll mentioned it was too early to get into discussing contract talks but he made a point of speaking about how pleased he was with Smith and Lock while noting ‘a conversation was coming’ with the pair.

Within Henderson’s article, here’s what Carroll said:

“Well, we’ve work to do… but our system is really good. The system is really good, what we’re asking these guys to do.”

Carroll brings up the scheme — which chimes with the earlier part of Henderson’s report that the Seahawks believe their system is ‘quarterback friendly’.

It’s possible that both Schneider and Carroll are actually on the same page here — both in how they’re approaching negotiations and leverage with Smith but also in a willingness to move on if needs be.

Where else might they be aligned?

They might have agreed on a plan last year ahead of the Russell Wilson trade that they would set out to draft a quarterback in 2023.

Smith’s form in the first half of the season may have provoked a slight pause for thought as he was touted as an outside bet for MVP. Yet having thrown five interceptions in his last five games — a tally that could’ve easily been higher — they might’ve soured somewhat on a major investment in Smith.

As discussed yesterday, Seattle’s cap situation is not set-up to accommodate even a moderately well paid quarterback. They have the seventh most effective cap space ($28.5m) with the third fewest players contracted for 2023. They’ve got a lot of work to do without a lot of cap space to do it.

People have even talked about franchising Smith but I don’t know how you do that without hacking away at your roster — creating more holes — and failing to make any significant additions in the veteran market.

There’s likely a dollar amount they’d be willing to give Smith — it’s probably not close to the amount he’s hoping for. Which means he’ll need to establish his market and then the Seahawks will have a decision to make.

Smith seemed very emotional after the Rams game. There could be many reasons for that. At the time he didn’t know whether Seattle would make the playoffs and possibly assumed, like a lot of us, that Green Bay would beat Detroit. He possibly felt emotional because he thought it was his last game and he has an uncertain future.

After the game he said:

“It’s a business. Football is a business, a lot of people have a lot of decisions to make, that’s where I’ll leave it at.”

Again, it implies that the two sides might be further apart than some think and there’s a willingness on the Seahawks’ behalf to offer a certain salary and if the Smith camp want more, they’ll be prepared to move on.

I don’t think it’s that preposterous that a much cheaper Sam Darnold, Mason Rudolph, Gardner Minshew or Cooper Rush might be added to compete with Drew Lock — before the addition of a quarterback if the draft falls the right way at #5.

Both Carroll and Schneider might be very comfortable with that given how much they’re talking up the scheme. It’s justified too. We saw Jared Goff produce in LA. Baker Mayfield basically flew to the Rams, ran onto the field and had a modicum of success at the end of the season.

Will Levis had a tremendous season for Kentucky playing for Liam Coen in 2021. Aaron Rodgers had two MVP-level seasons playing under Matt LaFleur. Cincinnati made the Super Bowl with a talented offensive roster operating within this scheme.

The Kyle Shanahan and McVay schemes share a lot of DNA and we’re seeing Shanahan dominate games starting a third string ‘Mr Irrelevant’ this season.

I think it’s important to offer the other side to the article I wrote yesterday, which positioned Schneider and Carroll on opposite ends of a big off-season.

It’s possible the opposite is true but I also do lean towards the old ‘no smoke without fire’ when it comes to stuff like this.

Speaking of Levis — here’s something to remember. Not only does he have the physical qualities Schneider loves. His familiarity with the offense Seattle runs could make him even more attractive if he’s required to start sooner rather than later. He spent a year in the Rams offense and then a season in the Shanahan system in college. He will understand the terminology and how to run the scheme.

I’m not sure Levis will last to #5 but he could be a very attractive proposition if Carroll and Schneider are setting themselves up to go quarterback early.

Check out this video I posted on my YouTube channel earlier — it’s also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams:

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Yesterday I wrote a two-round mock draft. Today, I’ve decided not to publish it.

I think there’s a bigger question that needs to be asked and it makes writing a mock draft at the moment totally pointless.

Who calls the shots?

Is it Pete Carroll or is it John Schneider?

Because who the key decision maker is will dictate and shape one of the most important off-seasons in Seahawks history.

Be warned, speculative thinking out loud is forthcoming.

It’s about a year since Jody Allen met with Carroll and Schneider and had an end of season meeting that was described as ‘routine’ by some in the media, yet turned out to be the precursor to significant coaching changes, schematic adjustments and the Russell Wilson trade.

It was also speculated at the time that Schneider might gain greater personnel control as a consequence of that meeting. That has never been confirmed and we’ll never know for sure but it was suggested as a possibility.

I suspect Schneider’s vision for the 2023 off-season will differ to Carroll’s and that makes this an important topic.

I think it’s why chatter like this exists:

I think the GM there has wanted someone else at head coach for some time now even if they won’t publicly acknowledge that… https://t.co/2hYSdCnUd7

— Benjamin Allbright (@AllbrightNFL) December 19, 2022

I think Schneider was always planning to draft a quarterback this off-season. It’s easy to forget but cast your mind back to last summer. Expectations were low. Most people assumed the Seahawks were starting Geno Smith in an attempt to just ‘see out the season’ before launching phase two of a major rebuild.

The 2023 quarterback class was being heavily talked up in the media — in my opinion, justifiably so. The Seahawks didn’t address the position at all last year apart from acquiring Drew Lock — who is out of contract as soon as the current season ends. It’s possible Schneider, as with other GM’s, was focused on the 2023 class.

Foundations were laid last off-season with the addition of book-end tackles. They also kept the players they felt provided a veteran presence (at great cost) such as Will Dissly and Quandre Diggs. Were they setting the stage to draft a QB?

The way they spent their money was also interesting. A lot of their 2023 cap space is gone already. The Seahawks have $28.5m in effective cap space to spend according to Over The Cap. In comparison, the Bears have $98m, the Falcons have $57m and the Giants have $44m. Even the Bengals have $10m more available at $38m.

The Seahawks only have the seventh most available spending money — and that’s with only 36 players signed for next season. Only the Chiefs and 49ers have fewer contracted players currently.

It’s easy to imagine everything was being geared towards having a cheap rookie quarterback in 2023. Or at least a rookie paired with a veteran bridge. If nothing else, you then have the money to fill out your roster — something that would be otherwise challenging with 36 players signed and only $28.5m to play with.

Travon Walker, the #1 overall pick a year ago, had a $6.7m cap hit as a rookie. His cap hit next season is only $8.5m. That would be the absolute maximum a young quarterback would cost Seattle, if they ended up with the top pick.

Instead they’ve gained the fifth pick, courtesy of the Broncos. Kayvon Thibodeax was the #5 selection a year ago. His rookie cap hit was only $5.7m.

This to me always felt like the plan. Draft a cost-effective quarterback early in 2023.

Then the season started and Geno Smith performed as he did.

I don’t think members of the front office ever anticipated a situation where fans would be calling for Smith to have his contract extended at $30m a year.

If they were anticipating Smith being a starter for the longer term, they likely wouldn’t have signed him to a mere $3.5m one-year deal with $3.5m in incentives. They would’ve paid more to get an extra year or two.

Smith’s performances in the first half of the season were unexpected and brilliant and have changed the discussion with many believing Seattle almost has to pay to keep him. I think a majority of fans want to ‘build around Geno’ rather than stick to what might’ve been the original plan of going younger and cheaper.

This is why I think whoever is calling the shots in the off-season really matters.

If John Schneider has final say

He may want to draft the younger quarterback still and plan for the future. They might be able to keep Geno Smith as a bridge — but that might be a bonus. They’re in position to select one of the top four quarterbacks in the draft — a rare opportunity for this franchise and GM.

I’ve watched all of their college games and I think all four QB’s warrant the pick. I also think players like Will Levis and Anthony Richardson absolutely fit what Schneider seems to value at the position. While people will dismiss the pair as not good enough (based mostly on what they read and hear from other people, it has to be said) — the reality is fans would’ve said the same things about Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. They had plenty of flaws, plenty of errors on tape and were seen as more potential over polish. They are also two players Schneider reportedly was very keen on.

This quote from Mike Tomlin was highlighted to me today and it rings so true:

“I love to hear coaches resist the responsibility of coaching… They’ll talk negatively about a dude that can’t learn and blah, blah. Man, if everybody could learn, we’d need less coaches. Right? If the group didn’t need management, then we wouldn’t make as much.

“I love reading draft evals and somebody’s talking about anything other than pedigree, talking about how poor somebody’s hand usage is. Well, that’s coaching. I don’t run away from coaching. I run to coaching. It all is in line with not seeking comfort, because when you’re a coach that’s talking about, ‘Somebody can’t learn,’ you’re seeking comfort because your teaching is struggling.”

The likes of Levis and Richardson have extreme physical qualities, pro-style experience and excellent character. These are qualities that will appeal greatly to Schneider (and other GM’s).

Let me go a step further. I think there’s every chance Schneider is determined to draft a quarterback. He comes from the Green Bay system — which has always valued the position. They drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 in order to be well prepared for Brett Favre’s retirement. They then spent a subsequent second round pick on Brian Brohm — despite the investment in Rodgers and the fact Favre was still playing.

Think about that for a second. At one point in 2008 Green Bay’s quarterback depth chart was:

Brett Favre
Aaron Rodgers — 1st round pick in 2005
Brian Brohm — 2nd round pick in 2008

Talk about doing everything it takes to find a long term solution.

More recently we saw the Packers use a controversial pick on Jordan Love when Rodgers was still in his prime.

The Packers have always been dedicated to the quarterback position. John Schneider has brought that DNA with him to Seattle.

We were told how the Seahawks were prepared to draft Mahomes in 2017 had he lasted to Seattle’s pick, despite enjoying Russell Wilson’s best years in that period. It’s since been reported they were trying to trade Wilson to Cleveland a year later, to draft Allen with the top pick.

The evidence suggests Schneider has been very conscious of the position. I have a really hard time believing that will change now. It seems fanciful that Schneider would instead focus on paying Geno Smith a fortune, as he approaches age 33, with only potentially Drew Lock waiting in the wings. This feels like almost the complete opposite of what the Green Bay executive tree would do.

Signing Smith and drafting a quarterback? Sure. Trusting Smith for the next few years with an expensive contract — especially after a fairly middling second half of the season — and putting all your eggs in the Geno basket? That seems unlikely.

The other thing to consider is unlike in 2012, there isn’t a third round quarterback who really screams ‘take me’. There’s no Wilson waiting in the wings this year. It’s a very top-heavy class. The Seahawks also have a higher pick this year than at any other point in the Carroll/Schneider era.

If Pete Carroll has final say

Reverse everything I just said. I think paying Geno and cracking on is exactly what Pete Carroll will want to do.

He turns 72 in September. What benefit is there in drafting someone at #5 who will be on the sideline during his final years in coaching? Someone who might never see the field? Or if he does see the field, will likely have to go through the growing pains most young quarterbacks experience?

There’s simply no benefit for Carroll in a plan to draft for the long term. Not when you can go and draft an impact defender who can help improve a struggling unit. Carroll’s philosophy is built on ‘completing the circle’ and as we know, it’s the defensive part of that circle that has let the team down the most.

If the plan is for Carroll to coach until 2025 when his contract expires, or at least around the time the team is eventually sold, time is of the essence. Any thought of what the Seahawks might look like beyond 2025 with a new quarterback isn’t likely to interest him. He knows he has an increasingly small window for success.

If he has the power to determine the off-season plan, he is much more likely to favour drafting one of the defenders. Re-sign Geno Smith even if it’s expensive. Try to win as soon as possible.

I think the problem with that plan — and this is how Schneider might see it — is the Seahawks are not that close to contending. The 49ers are able to win with lesser quarterbacks because they have arguably a nearly complete roster, built over many years of good drafting, trading and signing. Even then, they felt the need to spend a haul of picks trading up for Trey Lance — someone they thought could be better than average due to his physical traits.

Schneider may also feel like having the #5 pick is a rare treat — or that Geno Smith might not be good enough to lead you to the promise land to warrant passing on a quarterback with a top-five selection.

Regardless, it feels possible that the GM and the Head Coach will have very different ideas for this off-season and how the team should proceed.

For me, that’s possibly why some of this ‘Carroll considering retirement’ talk surfaced. He might have little appetite for long-term planning and drafting of a rookie quarterback with the top pick. It’s very easy to imagine he’d walk away, head held high, not feeling motivated to start all over with a raw signal caller.

People have suggested the retirement chatter was nonsense because if Carroll was going to go, he wouldn’t do it with a haul of picks to spend. If those picks are going to be used to lay the foundations for the next 8-10 years rather than create a winner in 2023 and 2024, I can well imagine him deciding this is the ideal time to bow out.

Carroll joined the Seahawks in 2010 because he was promised control. If he no longer has that and doesn’t agree with the plan for this vital off-season, it’s not such a stretch to imagine he might call it a day.

Alternatively if Carroll remains the man at the top making the calls rather than Schneider, it’s a moot point. He can do whatever he wants — and I suspect that would mean drafting a defensive lineman at #5 unless Schneider was able to convince him they were staring at the next Mahomes (which he may or may not believe exists in this class).

You might argue this is all a load of nonsense. In fairness, people said the same thing about Wilson being traded. For 18 months many fans and media rejected it was even a possibility, until the tweet from Adam Schefter announced a deal with Denver.

I think this is food for thought and warrants consideration and a conversation.

That doesn’t mean it will happen. It’s possible Schneider and Carroll are more aligned than I’m suggesting in this article and agree on the plan and the vision wholeheartedly.

I do think, however, it’s possible there’s a GM in Seattle thinking long term with a young quarterback and there’s a Head Coach thinking about trying to win before he retires.

Having the #5 pick, in a way, is a good and bad thing in this regard. If they were picking at #12 instead — there’s no real debate to be had. The fact they’re picking early enough to get at the top quarterbacks means the question of long term vs short term comes into focus.

When I wrote my mock draft yesterday, I toyed with doing a John mock or a Pete mock. I sided with the Pete mock because until he departs, don’t you have to assume he will have some sway? Or even full control?

If he doesn’t — and if his time in Seattle is nearing the end — what’s the point of doing a mock today? I might as well wait until we know for sure. That could be seven days away or — hopefully — a bit longer (because we all want the Seahawks to dump the 49ers out of the playoffs).

For those who wanted the mock I can tell you who I had Seattle taking after #5. They took Sedrick Van Pran after a trade down from #20 into the late first. I had the Seahawks tapping into the great value at receiver between #20-40 and selecting Jonathan Mingo. Then I had them drafting Keion White at #54.

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Mention Florida QB Anthony Richardson and you keep hearing the same thing.

Sure, he might be 6-4 and 232lbs. He might have top-tier arm strength comparable to the best players in the NFL. He might be able to run like a bigger version of Lamar Jackson. His upside and talent might be through the roof.

However, he’s not the finished product. He’s raw. Therefore he’s not worth a high pick.

Forget that the same complaints were made about Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes. Daniel Jeremiah didn’t have Mahomes in his top-50 list at the start of April — weeks before the 2017 draft where he was selected tenth overall.

No, Richardson is simply too much of a project. The fact he didn’t elevate a Florida team that is basically rebuilding from scratch to improbable glory in the SEC means he can only be considered later in the draft.

For some reason this sort of thinking has spread. It’s the automatic response of most fans and media.

A quarterback who isn’t oven-ready to start like Joe Burrow is frequently viewed with suspicion. Burrow threw for 60 touchdowns, led an unbeaten season at LSU, won the Heisman and was able to throw to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson.

It’s a standard nobody achieves in an environment few benefit from. Those who get close invariably have the same advantages — a loaded, powerhouse team full of top recruits. A wide-open spread system. The chops to make noise in the playoffs.

Yet, as it happens, it’s the flawed quarterbacks from Texas Tech and Wyoming who most people pine for.

Let’s switch over to the defensive line and discuss Myles Murphy.

Forget the fact that he’s had an underwhelming college career. Despite playing for Clemson on a loaded D-line, he only had 6.5 sacks in 2022. Most people don’t know that he didn’t start a couple of games this year and was spelled regularly because his performance wasn’t up to snuff.

It’s never discussed, never brought up.

When Clemson went to Notre Dame, Murphy was flattened in the running game. He looked dreadful as a run defender. The Irish took Clemson’s soul that night — made them look like a bunch of prima donna softies, unprepared for the battle in the trenches.

Murphy was the worst culprit.

What you do hear about Murphy is that he’s a fantastic athlete. He was third on Bruce Feldman’s ‘freaks list’ for 2022. He’s 6-5 and 275lbs and can reportedly run in the 4.5’s and jump a 35-inch vertical.

Incredible! What an athlete! What potential!

Just imagine what he could become?

The truth is Murphy is no more of a ‘sure thing’ than Richardson. Yet the two are treated very differently by the media and by fans.

A clip of Murphy forcing a pressure off the edge will get people dreaming of a dominant edge rusher. A clip of Anthony Richardson throwing for a 65-yard touchdown, then on the next drive running for an 80-yard touchdown (which happened during the season) receives far less buzz.

I’m concerned about Murphy. To me he looks like a five-star recruit who has always been a naturally gifted athlete and as such, has found it quite easy in High School and college. When you watch Will Anderson at his best, he treats every down like the Super Bowl is on the line. Murphy too often goes through the motions.

I say this having watched every Clemson game from the 2022 season. There were odd flashes from Murphy but nothing that made me feel like I was watching a ‘must-have’ player. You never sat up in your seat watching him. More often than not you were left wanting more.

His size is impressive but it’s also a slight detriment. He isn’t a lean edge rusher in the same bracket as the Bosa’s or Myles Garrett. He’s quite chunky and doesn’t have a great deal of muscle definition. You see some stiffness off the edge at times and he doesn’t have the explosive twitch to get a tackle on skates, then fly around the arc and straighten to the quarterback.

He wins, more often than not, by engaging and countering. This is a great ability to have and will serve him well in the NFL if it translates. The size and athleticism really stands out when he can get into the pads of a blocker, use his length to keep his own frame clean and then produce one of a number of effective counters to disengage.

This is partly why he only had 6.5 sacks in 2022 and eight sacks in 2021. There aren’t many easy wins where he just comes screaming off the edge. There has to be at least some doubt as to whether the counters will be effective against stronger, savvier pro-linemen. Is he ever going to be more than someone who can handle a 4-3 power edge role, producing 6-8 sacks at a peak? And is that worth a top-five pick?

Look at the pressure rates for some of the bigger name pass rushers in college football in 2022:

• Laiatu Latu: 22.6%
• Jared Verse: 17.1%
• Tyree Wilson: 16.7%
• Will Anderson: 16%
• Andre Carter: 15.7%
• BJ Ojulari: 13.7%
• Zach Harrison: 13.3%
• Myles Murphy: 10%
• Isaiah Foskey: 9.9%

The likelihood he becomes a fairly average starter are, in my opinion, more likely than Murphy becoming a game-wrecking force.

Online, however, it’s almost like none of this is ever discussed. He’s simply a great athlete with wonderful size and that’s it. Top prospect.

You’d never know that Richardson’s PFF grade was 80.1 in 2022 and Murphy’s was an almost identical 79.0. The way the two players are discussed is so different.

To go back to Richardson, let’s also quickly review his strengths and weaknesses. He has elite arm strength and prototype size. He can drive the ball downfield and make the improbable happen. However — he is also far less raw than the mainstream makes out. He played in a system that required him to make adjustments at the line and shift protection. He’s operated in a pro-style offense that has a lot of modern misdirection, bootlegs and play-action. He’s also incredibly difficult to tackle in the pocket and can throw with a defender clinging on to him. As a runner — if he breaks contain he’s a threat to score any time he’s in the open-field. Opponents will have to be mindful of Richardson as a runner on every snap.

On the negative side, there were too many throws that were just ‘off’. In every game he would throw passes high or behind. Sometimes his timing would be out of whack. He also needs to learn to throw with greater touch. Too often he throws at full power when taking a bit off was necessary to help the receiver make a completion. There were some ugly interceptions early in the season where he just misread the defense but as time went on, those disappeared.

I would argue that his biggest flaws — being off with his timing, learning to throw with a bit more touch — are things that can be learned with more field experience. He only started for one season at college. You could easily make a case that his first year as a starter was, comparatively speaking, a revelation. Very few quarterbacks play that well in essentially a one-and-done situation.

The people arguing he could’ve benefitted from another year at Florida make a compelling case. It would’ve been fascinating to see his year-two growth. However, with the Gators looking like a bit of a mess at this point (highlighted by a 30-3 hammering by Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl, a game Richardson sat out) — you can hardly blame him for thinking it’s best to move on.

Either way he’s shown flashes to suggest superstar potential. Murphy, with respect, has not shown those same flashes. Yet Murphy is celebrated for his athleticism, size and upside. Richardson’s athletic qualities are acknowledged but smothered by the narrative of being unprepared for the NFL with the perception of ‘high risk’.

In Josh Allen’s final year at Wyoming, he had 21 total touchdowns and six interceptions. Richardson had 26 total touchdowns and nine interceptions in his only season as a starter, in the SEC, without much of a supporting cast. Should we not be more open-minded about players with extreme traits but perhaps need time, as Allen did, to reach their full potential?

You can make a similar case for Will Levis. People love to knock him after a disappointing final season for Kentucky. Yet any kind of perspective is lost whenever he’s brought up. He wasn’t playing for a powerhouse like Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia. He didn’t feature in a wide-open spread offense making his life easy like the ones we see with Washington, Tennessee or TCU.

Levis ran a pro-style offense for a struggling offensive coordinator who is being replaced after one season. He had no weapons to speak of and didn’t have his top running back available for a full season. He had to lead Kentucky against the top teams in college football in the SEC.

Most importantly, he played behind a god-awful offensive line and was hammered every week for a full season:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

I’m going to keep mentioning this because it’s important. Kentucky gave up 42 sacks in 2022. Michael Penix Jr was sacked seven times.

When you actually look at what Levis offers — incredible arm strength, the ability to make the crazy improbable happen, escapability and playmaking as a runner, pro-style experience, top-level character and maturity, prototype size. This is a portrait of a very exciting player.

He’s far from flawless but again — very few quarterbacks who come into the league are. Not Allen, not Mahomes, not Herbert.

Yet the ratio of people speaking negatively about Levis is far greater than those speaking positively about him. With Myles Murphy, the negatives are barely ever mentioned.

I want to end with Jalen Carter — who is also considered by many Seahawks fans to be the apple of their eye. The player Seattle needs for the defensive line. The player who is destined to come in and turn the team into a serious contender because the front will be dramatically improved.

His risk factor is so much greater than Levis or Richardson. We’ve got the reported character concerns, we’ve seen the poor conditioning, we see how much he is spelled and can legitimately ask whether he’ll be ready for the battle of endurance that is the NFL.

After half-time in the National Championship game, ESPN ran a sideline report that revealed he was ’embarrassed’ by how gassed he was against Ohio State, so he spent the week doing morning sprints.

I cringed when I heard that. You can’t significantly improve your stamina in a week. You don’t try and improve your conditioning between the playoff semi-final and final with the biggest prize on the line. You have to be ready to go in the summer. You need to be ready for the season. Conditioning isn’t something you ‘have a bit of a go at’ ahead of your last game.

If he isn’t taking this seriously when millions of dollars are on the line as he prepares to turn pro — why will he do it when those millions are banked?

I did a bit of digging today and found this press conference from last April. Carter was asked this opening question:

“Coach (Kirby) Smart was just in here talking about how he wants you to step up as a leader, work on conditioning…”

Carter answered:

“I’ve started running more after practise and all that because they told me I could be a top-10 pick and all that, so I’ve done a lot that I didn’t usually do my freshman year and I’ve just been working harder.”

Later in the interview, when he was asked about the areas of his game he was working on, he again reiterated that conditioning was his main focus — specifically doing some extra running because he expected to ‘get a lot of reps’.

Conditioning was raised by the coaches as an area for improvement or greater dedication long before the 2022 season began. Carter acknowledged it and talked about being motivated to act because he wanted to be a high draft pick.

Despite the prompting by coaches and the clear motivation of millions of dollars to earn, his conditioning was a problem during the season culminating, in his words, in an ’embarrassing’ performance against Ohio State.

This is a concern. When Georgia were telling him to work on his stamina he didn’t deliver with millions at stake. What motivation will he have when the millions are banked?

Then you move on to performance. When he returned from injury in the second half of the season, he played as well as anyone in college football. He was constantly disruptive. In the two playoff games, though, he was quiet, restrained and only offering occasional glimpses of quality — amid all the huffing and puffing he did as fatigue set in.

Carter feels like an incredibly risky proposition. You can easily imagine him never really getting the need to be ‘on it’ all the time to max out his potential. You can imagine a team needing to kick his arse for three years in the hope the light will finally switch on. You can imagine him being a big let down. You can also imagine, with his talent, that he takes things a bit more seriously and becomes a force.

Let’s look at it like this. Jalen Carter is highly athletic with good size and a ton of upside but there are character and conditioning question marks, not to mention production issues. Anthony Richardson is highly athletic with good size and a ton of upside with no character concerns or question marks but in first year as a starter, he made a few mistakes.

Why are people scared to death of Richardson but speak only in the most glowing terms for Carter? Not just Seahawks fans incidentally, many of which have decided that drafting D-line is the only option at #5 (it isn’t). The media has a tendency to view quarterbacks through a far more critical lens.

Perhaps that comes with the territory of the position? Even so, we shouldn’t be judging that players are ‘less’ risky than others, when the evidence suggests nothing of the sort.

If you can justify taking Jalen Carter with his 40% snaps a game, character questions and conditioning issues at #5 — surely you can justify investing in an extremely talented quarterback of the future too?

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It’s still early and things can change but I think the #1 pick is going to come down to a battle between two teams.

Who will offer the best package to Chicago? Indianapolis or Carolina.

The Colts have gone through Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and others. They need to draft a young, talented quarterback and arguably can’t afford to just sit at #4 and hope for the best.

David Tepper, the Panthers’ owner, is not a shrinking violet. He’s been chasing a quarterback splash ever since he bought the club. He’s seen his team compete like crazy in the second half of the 2022 season and he’ll probably believe they’re ‘a quarterback away’.

Indianapolis has the advantage of being able to offer the Bears the #4 pick. The Panthers will probably be more aggressive in trade talks because they’d need to make a bigger move to go from #9 to #1.

There are other teams who could get into the mix — Las Vegas for example, as they prepare to move on from Derek Carr. I just feel like the Colts and Panthers are the two to monitor at this early stage.

Chicago will be rubbing their hands with glee. They control the draft by getting ahead of the Texans for the #1 pick and can guarantee the quarterback of preference to any potential suitor. Before Houston’s win against the Colts, they could only guarantee QB2.

Their priority will be to determine how far they’re prepared to trade down. If the Colts do make an offer but it isn’t as strong as Carolina’s, are they more inclined to take it knowing they’ll still be able to draft one of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter at #4? Or are they simply after the biggest offer, which may come from the Panthers or someone else later on?

I will likely do mock drafts in the coming weeks where I project Indianapolis and Carolina trading into #1.

What happens will have a big impact on the Seahawks. For example, if the Bears trade with the Colts, it’s likely Anderson and Carter will be off the board — possibly forcing Seattle to take the third quarterback at #5. Alternatively if the Bears drop to #9, that likely creates a situation where three quarterbacks go in the top-four, delivering the Seahawks one of Anderson or Carter.

Let’s look at the two scenarios. I’m going to project where I think certain players are likely to go and it what it would mean for Seattle.

The Colts trade up from #4

#1 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
#2 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
#3 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
#4 Chicago (v/IND) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)

In this projection, the fact the Bears only trade down three spots takes the top two defenders off the board before the #5 pick. This would likely steer the Seahawks towards drafting a quarterback of the future.

Such a prospect is regularly rejected on Twitter by an army of Seahawks fans repelled by the idea of planning ahead at the position. As discussed already in detail, it’s something that should at least be considered.

It’s not disloyal or disrespectful of Geno Smith to note he turns 33 this year, is out of contract soon, isn’t guaranteed to provide years of quality play and simply might not be good enough to lead you to the promise land. It’s OK to acknowledge that might all be true while appreciating the unexpected highs he reached earlier in the season and hoping he can be retained on perhaps a two-year extension.

Smith’s also had some rough moments in recent weeks which have to at least make you pause on a massive, multi-year deal. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions since Germany and had several other near-interceptions. It shouldn’t steer anyone to want rid of Smith but it should create a broader discussion about what the future looks like.

A best of both worlds situation would be to retain Smith as a bridge and then draft a longer-term alternative who won’t face the pressure to start immediately. Again, any talk of this is often derided as a ‘waste’ — but if Anderson or Carter are both off the board anyway, there’s little reason not to consider this.

Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy are a hard sell at #5. Wilson has great size and length but his play is inconsistent and you worry about whether he’s twitchy enough to be a difference maker at the next level. Murphy will test well but looks like someone who’s been able to get by as a great athlete in college. He was spelled/benched at times for Clemson in 2022, his production is mediocre, his body lacks muscle definition and he was run all over by Notre Dame. He looks like a player who is going to require a rocket up the arse when he gets to the NFL.

In this first scenario my suggestion would be that the Seahawks strongly consider drafting Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson to sit behind Geno Smith with the intention of taking over in 2024 or 2025.

Young has a winners mentality, he’s naturally gifted and creative and he’s had an excellent college career. The problem, as everyone knows by now, is size. He’s said to be approximately 5-10/5-11 in height and around 185lbs. That is going to put a question mark in the mind of decision makers because nobody can project how that type of body will hold up in the NFL. There’s no precedent in the modern game.

Richardson meanwhile has superstar potential with a prototype frame, physical tools and the ability to make big plays with his legs or arm. He is far more developed than people give him credit for — he just needs time and experience. He shares a lot of similarities to Josh Allen in that regard but let’s also not forget that Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes also had plenty of doubters coming into the NFL.

It’s hard not to watch Richardson — or Will Levis — and not think ‘this is what John Schneider has typically sought at the position’. Stroud and Young are so talented, however, that they also surely carry appeal.

You don’t have to take my word on the order of the QB’s taken. If you want to mix things around that’s fine. Any of the top four would be a great pick — an investment for the future at the most important position. A chance to grab someone special at quarterback. This isn’t a luxury pick — you would still have another first rounder, two second rounders and a third rounder to address other needs.

The Panthers trade up from #4

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
#2 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
#3 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
#4 Indianapolis — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)

In this situation, the Bears move out of the top five and increase the chances of three quarterbacks leaving the board before Seattle’s pick. If the Colts are content taking the third or fourth quarterback this could happen. If they grade QB3 or QB4 in the same range as QB1, they are less likely to try and get up to #1.

The Panthers at #9 have little chance of getting at a quarterback. I’m not convinced Anthony Richardson will last that long, for example. They are likely to be aggressive to solve this long-standing need.

Jalen Carter remains on the board and would be a strong option for Seattle at #5, along with Richardson. I suspect Will Anderson will be taken before Carter, simply due to the vast difference in how they’re perceived. Anderson is an amped up live-wire who plays with great effort. There have been well-publicised reports of character concerns for Carter and we all saw how gassed he looked against LSU and Ohio State.

The Seahawks have shown little fear in rolling the dice in the past and might be willing to take a chance on Carter’s potential due to the huge boom-factor of him working out. He’ll certainly need to do some serious fitness work in the off-season and he’ll need to allay character worries during the draft process. Yet there’s no doubting he might be the most talented player in the draft and at the very least he’s in the top-three.

Character, attitude and effort matters. Taking a flashy defensive tackle at #5 won’t mean much if he can’t play more than 40% of the snaps or creates issues behind the scenes. The risk factor has to be considered here and likely will be considered by teams (eg Arizona) who are provided an opportunity to weigh up Anderson vs Carter.

This is why Todd McShay called Carter a ‘hot-button name’ when reporting on the concerns within the league. It’s going to be discussed a lot, analysed a lot. One of the main reasons will be the lack of concern regarding Anderson or the top quarterbacks who all have no such character complaints.

One of the benefits of picking at #5 is other teams get to make your decision a lot easier. At #3 it might be very difficult to pick between Anderson, Carter and the third quarterback. That’s a very challenging call with a chance to look foolish if you get it wrong. If the decision comes down to Carter and the fourth quarterback on the board, there’s probably going to be less blowback if the pick goes wrong. It’ll be seen as a ‘no brainer’ to take Carter and there might be a decent grading difference between the top three quarterbacks and Anthony Richardson — who has a lot less starting experience.

For Seahawks fans desperate for the team to draft a defensive lineman and are worried falling to #5 takes them out of range for Anderson or Carter — this is a realistic scenario that keeps one of them on the board.

Final thoughts

Ultimately this is just a follow-up to what I wrote yesterday. Having #3 instead of #5 is obviously preferable. That’s stating the obvious. However — the Seahawks are guaranteed to be in position to draft one of:

C.J. Stroud
Will Levis
Bryce Young
Anthony Richardson
Will Anderson
Jalen Carter

That’s a really good group and any of the six are worth the pick.

This is a good thing for the Seahawks.

There are going to be other scenarios worth discussing as time goes on. I don’t think it’s out of the realms of possibility Houston takes a defender at #2, especially if they love Anderson or Carter. We’ve got plenty of time to break it all down.

I will again plead with fans to be open minded about the possibility of a quarterback or a defensive lineman at #5. Both options should and almost certainly will be considered.

I’d also ask for people to not believe everything you read about these players in the mainstream media. There are plenty of false narratives out there about this quarterback class — and about some of the defenders too.

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The football gods conspired against the Seahawks on Sunday — with Indianapolis ridiculously blowing their game against the Texans, the Cardinals predictably being pummelled by the Niners and the Broncos ending their season on a high against the Chargers.

Seattle dropped from the #3 pick to #5 — a frustrating turn of events after weeks of sitting in the #2 or #3 spot.

However, I don’t think there’s any real reason for fans to be too upset.

This isn’t a draft class loaded with blue-chip players. However, picking at #5 guarantees you will get one of the few available.

My biggest fear midway through the season was that Denver would right their ship and win enough games to sink Seattle into the #8-12 range. From there, it would’ve been quite bleak. You’d be reaching on a prospect undeserving of the draft range.

Instead, the Seahawks will get a really good player.

So who’s available?

There are two defensive linemen worthy of the pick — the often discussed Will Anderson and Jalen Carter.

I think any of the top-four quarterbacks are worth the pick — C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson. There are a lot of lazy opinions formed about this quartet but having watched every game they’ve all played in college — this is a good quarterback class and all warrant consideration early in round one.

There are two other players who I think deserve very high grades. They are Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer.

There are other players deserving of fringe first round grades but I think players like Myles Murphy and Tyree Wilson are being slightly overhyped.

Let’s assume the Seahawks are not going to take a running back or tight end with the #5 pick. They will definitely get one of the top four quarterbacks or one of the top defensive lineman. That’s a great position to be in.

Obviously if you’re picking at #3 it’s a better situation. For example, dropping below Indianapolis means there’s a real possibility they’ll take the quarterback you really like. There’s far less control of your draft destiny at #5.

This is still a bonus pick though, let’s not forget that. Nobody expected Denver to be quite as bad as they ended up being. It’s a great asset and while picking higher would’ve been great, you can’t look a gift-horse in the mouth.

Denver winning their last game was somewhat predictable and the Chargers kept their starters in. They didn’t use this as a bye week. So there’s little hand-wringing to be had.

I’ll do a mock draft in the coming days (maybe tomorrow) but I think there are a few scenarios to consider.

Chicago now controls the draft and will likely take calls for the #1 pick. With so many teams needing a quarterback, they’ll likely receive very attractive offers.

There doesn’t need to be a ‘clear #1’ like an Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence. Teams like Indianapolis have been desperate for years, jumping from one ageing veteran to the next. Having the #1 pick eliminates any doubt that a.) they’ll land a young QB and b.) they’ll get the one they really want.

The Colts are the team I would predict in this ‘way too early’ thinking out loud session as the team that will trade up to #1. That would enable them to get a young quarterback and Chicago would still pick at #4 — guaranteeing, in all likelihood, one of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter.

That would be preferable to the Bears compared to dealing with Las Vegas at #7 or Carolina at #9. They would have to trade too far down the board.

This would set up a situation where we could see:

#1 Colts (via/CHI) — quarterback
#2 Houston — quarterback
#3 Arizona — D-line
#4 Chicago — D-line

That would leave QB3 to Seattle — and they could either take that player or check out any offers to move down.

I also think it’s possible Houston could take a defensive player. Some teams may not be sold on the quarterbacks. I don’t think the Texans looked like a team, today, that felt like it desperately had to have the #1 pick. They might prefer Will Anderson or Jalen Carter anyway.

Equally — we could see a situation where a team outside of the top-five trades up to #1 and the quarterbacks go first, second and fourth. That would leave Seattle with whichever defender Arizona doesn’t take.

So the Seahawks are left waiting on other teams to make a call but it’s reassuring to think one of Stroud, Levis, Young, Richardson, Anderson or Carter can be theirs.

I also wouldn’t totally rule out the Seahawks trading up. After all, John Schneider has been dreaming about options at #3 for the last few weeks. What if there’s a player he expected to get who might now be out of reach that he can’t live without?

It’s still too early to talk about this stuff with any clarity. We’ve not even had the Senior Bowl yet. I wanted to highlight there are good options though at #5. That’s from someone who has watched 10-12 college football games a week since September in a mission to get to know this class properly ahead of a pivotal draft for the Seahawks.

If you missed our instant reaction stream earlier, check it out here:

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel.

The NFL marathon of the regular season is nearly over.  There is just one more game on the docket and it is against a hated division foe, at home in Seattle with their playoff lives on the line, no less.

The Seahawks have an annoying trend going.  Finishing the year on an up-note and winning the last couple games of the season long after any hopes of a really good playoff seeding have been extinguished.  They are like that golfer who starts out well, blows up on a couple holes on the back nine but ends the round with a nice drive or a clutch putt on the 18^th hole.  That is what keeps you coming back.

Can they end the season in that typical fashion?  We will see.  The Rams are a wounded animal.

Not many Super Bowl champions can claim to have as horrible a following season as the 2022 Rams.  They are more than ready to finish out a nightmare of a season.  Last week, they faced an amped up Chargers team in the thick of the playoff race and they could not muster any energy to meet the moment.  They looked like they were sleepwalking through the game.  The Chargers mopped the field with them and did whatever they wanted to.

Will the Rams be more up for this game?  No doubt they will be.  It is a division game and at this point all the Rams have to motivate them is ‘at least we spoiled a division opponent who was trying to backdoor their way into the playoffs.’  

It might be enough if the Seahawks are not careful.

How can the Seahawks win this game?

Running the ball and stopping the run.  If you are tired of hearing me say that, please know that I am tired of saying it.  Watching this run defense and hoping that the running game can support Geno Smith has been a dreadful experience at times this year.

The Seahawks have one more shot to deliver on their formula.

When the Rams have the Ball

Mission #1 is to stop Cam Akers.  He has been extremely effective running the ball in his last two games, turning 42 carries into 241 yards and 3 touchdowns.  That is 5.73 yards per carry.

You should know those fabulous numbers are not being propped up by a couple fantastic runs followed by a bunch of duds.  Of those 42 carries, Akers gained 5 yards or more on 19 of them – nearly half the time.  He has been consistently good and that spells trouble for the Seahawks defense.

Last week the Jets only gained 75 yards on the ground against the Seahawks, their second-best performance on run defense this season.  Unfortunately it is not much to be proud of.  As I said in last week’s preview, the Jets might be the worst run offense in the NFL at the moment and they still managed to average 4.41 yards per carry against the Seahawks.  The only reason they did not get more yards is because the coaching staff inexplicably ran the ball only seventeen times in the game.  They asked Mike White – Mike White! – to carry the offense by throwing 46 times in the game, while the running backs were effectively moving on one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  White did not reward their trust and the game was comfortably in hand for the Seahawks.

Do you think Sean McVay will make the same mistake?  Me neither.

He will find ways to keep Akers hot.  Might as well leave it all out on the field, right?

If Akers is contained, that puts a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to carry the offense — who at this point in time he is not much better than Mike White.  

He had a memorable win in his first game with the Rams days after being picked up, then beat the Broncos.  He quickly came back down to earth the following week against the Chargers.  Why?

The Chargers defense came to play, whereas the broken and demoralized Broncos defense did not.

McVay designed several simple plays for Mayfield, completely understandable as he had to suit up before even shaking hands with most of his teammates.  When Mayfield is called to play simply and there is not a pass rush in his face, he is fine.  Screens, dumpoffs to Akers in the flat and simple slant throws are relatively easy to make when the defense is not pressuring you.

He also has been very effective on designed rollouts, plays where the offense is lined up on a hash mark that call for him to roll out to the other side of the field and have a couple targets to choose from, a near target for 4-6 yards and a deeper target for 10-15.

They work well when he has Akers on his game to play-action to in order to draw the defense away from him and has a wide swath of field and time to make decisions.

When he has rushers in his face pressuring him to scramble, he turns back into the Baker Mayfield that got unceremoniously dumped by two different organizations this year.

Edge players like Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe will need to be smart and disruptive.  If they can create pressure in standard packages, that will cause all kinds of trouble for Mayfield.  It would be an added bonus if they could smartly handle those designed roll outs by either covering their assigned man or quickly getting upfield and into the quarterback’s face and taking away those easy choice throws.

It would be a huge bonus if they could get some inside pressure as well.  Mayfield is not the quickest at backpedaling and processing the play.  If he has direct pressure coming from the middle that narrows the gap, he will struggle to make plays.  If he has time, like any quarterback worth his salt, he is effective.

Evidence:  In the Broncos game, Mayfield was not sacked and the offense converted 6 of 10 third downs on their way to a 51-point day.  

The Chargers game?  He was sacked three times.  All three were on third down and killed the drive and on one of them he was stripped and the Chargers recovered the ball.

Blitz if you have to, Seahawks.  Get in Mayfield’s face and good things will happen.

In the last three games, the Seahawks defense is 10^th in the NFL in third down percentage, a vast improvement over their 28^th overall for the season.  The difference between a feel-good win and an absolutely frustrating loss to end the season will likely come down to how the defense performs on third down.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

Run the ball.  Run the ball some more.  And then run the ball again.

The Rams have given up 100 yards rushing in five of their last six games (ironically the sixth is when Seattle only managed 90 yards rushing due to Ken Walker leaving the game early – and he had 36 yards in only three rushes).

The Rams have lost four of those six games.  One of those wins featured the Broncos turning the ball over four times.  The other?  A win against the Raiders in a performance by Derek Carr that started all the drama about him being benched and his future in Las Vegas questioned.

The Rams run defense has regressed badly.  How badly?  In Week Thirteen, when the Seahawks went to LA for their first matchup, the Rams entered that game standing at 5^th in the NFL in rushing defense.  Only four games later they are now 10^th.  They dropped five whole positions very late in the season.

Teams are running right up the gut on the Rams at will and they are playing like they are broken and just playing the string out.

As Tom Waits sang, “The ship is sinking, the ship is sinking.  There’s a leak, there’s a leak in the boiler room.”

Give Ken Walker all the carries he can handle.  Let him move demoralize this defense.  Make Geno Smith’s day an easy one and we can all end the season with a nice win.

If the Seahawks can run the ball well, not only will it make Smith’s day easier, it will open up opportunities for D.K. Metcalf to turn in a repeat performance against Jalen Ramsey.  Metcalf may not be having the season we all expected of him but there is no doubt he is a highly competitive gamer.  Torching Ramsey again would nicely cap the season for him.

In Week Thirteen Geno Smith led a game-winning drive against the Rams that was a wonderful answer to the ‘yeah but’ crowd when discussing how good he has been this year.  He capped it with a brilliant pass to D.K. Metcalf after drifting in the pocket to avoid pressure and buy some time.

Yeah but he had two turnovers that made the game much harder than it should have been (see what I did there?).  He had a fumble near the Red Zone after not protecting the ball on a great scramble.  He also was intercepted just outside the Red Zone by Bobby Wagner (albeit on a controversial call that should have gone the Seahawks’ way).  

A clean day on the turnover sheet and an effective ground game will produce a low-stress day for the Seahawks.

The Chargers last week did not have any turnovers and pounded the ball on the ground to make for an easy win.  Justin Herbert was perfectly fine, going 24-31 for 239 yards and two touchdown passes.  A game like that is well within Geno’s grasp.

An efficient and effective game would cap his fantastic and improbable regular season in a fine way and be a great selling point to any potential suitors in the free agent market, including his own Seattle Seahawks.  It may seem symbolic but there will be tremendous incentive to end the season on a high note.

Final Thoughts

As we come to the last game of the season, I feel forced to reflect on the utterly high level of unpredictable strangeness we have all witnessed this year in the sphere around this team.

Beating Russell Wilson in Week One.

Geno Smith shocking the world and playing highly competent football.

A four-game winning streak where they looked unbeatable.  Losing five out of six and looking very, very beatable.

Rashaad Penny struggling to get in gear, then getting in gear and absolutely exploding through defenses.  Then just as quickly disappearing from the team with another injury.

A rookie class that actually delivered better results than we thought they would when we were popping champagne corks in April.

Missed tackle after missed tackle on defense.  Players not even lined up right.  Not even knowing what their assignments were.  Bad teams running the ball at will.

Russell Wilson being utterly incapable of stopping the train from going off the tracks in Denver and delivering the Seahawks a top-5 draft pick.

Tyler Lockett being Tyler Lockett.

What a strange, wonderful, frustrating, unexpected and perplexing year it was.

It was my pleasure to share it with all of you.  To enjoy the triumphs and shake our collective heads together at the sorrows and resolutely work our way through the week to the next contest.

Thank you, Rob, for the opportunity once again to post here.

Thank you to the community for the support.  

The Seahawks’ offseason is coming and it will be one of the biggest ones in many years.  If you want the inside scoop on how they can best take advantage of it, this is the place.

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