— Upon further review, I underestimated Siaki Ika. His performance against Iowa State was first class. He regularly absorbed double teams and drew constant attention in pass-pro. He was aggressive and powerful at the POA. His movement skills were a sight to behold as he twisted away from 1v1 blocks and at one point he pulled out a spin move. There were strings to his bow I hadn’t seen before.

It was interesting to see him stay on the field for a 2nd and 21 play in the fourth quarter and that speaks to his impact. Baylor were weaker up front when he wasn’t out there. On one snap he worked his way to the outside and matched up vs the right tackle. He drove him backwards into the quarterback, shoved the tackle to the ground with disdain and hit the QB leading to an inaccurate pass that was almost intercepted. He anchored consistently in the run and was able to disengage and release not just stick on a block to maintain gap integrity.

It was a tremendous performance that showed what he’s capable of. I’ve moved him up on my board. He’s very much in the ‘can do a job’ bracket’ as a plus nose tackle with the right combination of mobility and strength.

— It’s taken me a while to get to watching him but I was incredibly impressed with Ohio State right tackle Dawand Jones. I’ve graded him higher than team mate Paris Johnson Jr and put him in the fringe first round range (pre-testing).

For a human to move as well as he does at his size is remarkable. His mirror ability in space was shocking at 6-8 and 359lbs. He did a tremendous job tracking speed off the edge, getting into position. When he latches on and engages he’s a pure finisher with the kind of edge you want to see from an offensive lineman.

He’s not just a power merchant though — he knows when to use momentum against a pass rusher to throw him down, he extends to keep his frame clean and finish and he has a good kick-slide for a man this big. I thoroughly enjoyed watching him.

You might ask whether a switch to guard is viable for such an intriguing prospect. Maybe — but with his height I would be cautious about that. I also think it’d be a bit of a waste to see him move inside given how well he handles duties off the edge. That said, there are other players in this class tailor made to kick inside and if the Seahawks find someone they like they should seriously consider taking them. They’ve been so poor in the trenches in the second half of the season, it should remain a priority on both sides of the ball.

— I’ve re-watched Peter Skoronski tape and I’m still a little bit torn on whether he warrants first round consideration as a guard or whether his likely switch inside will keep him on the board longer than people are projecting. He played left tackle at Northwestern and there are some nice reps on tape. I like how he can get on the move and reach up to blocks in the running game. He has a strong back so that when he loses the initial leverage battle or if a pass rusher drives into his frame, he frequently plants the anchor and just stalls any momentum.

His initial step is very impressive. Skoronski gets out of his stance brilliantly and shuts off the edge by closing the space for the rusher to try and build speed. This can be an issue sometimes when you set so dramatically to the outside because you’re susceptible to the inside counter. Some teams might work that out at the next level. However, I didn’t see him giving up anything inside and he seems to have the agility to re-set and adjust. I went back and watched the Michigan game from last year to see him take on Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo and he did a really good job containing the inside against Hutchinson, who struggled to beat Skoronski off the edge.

His feet are choppy and quick when engaged and it means he doesn’t lose balance. Sometimes he splits his legs too wide and you can imagine some issues at tackle if he doesn’t solve that — yet for the most part it wasn’t an issue in college.

There are some rough moments too. Lukas Van Ness buried him with a bull-rush vs Iowa. His lack of arm length can be a real issue in one sense and a plus in the other. For example, a long tackle should benefit from playing inside out, sitting inside and using your length to protect the edge. He has to engage all the time because he can’t lean to the inside and stretch out an arm and mirror. That works though in the NFL sense because if his natural home is guard or center, he’s used to hand-fighting and engaging in combat. The fact he does it well enough on the move at tackle is a feather in his cap.

He has a pedigree. He was Northwestern’s first ever five-star recruit and the grandson of former Green Bay Pro-Bowl offensive tackle Bob Skoronski.

I think he has the capability to be a really good guard. Zack Martin was a five-star offensive tackle at Notre Dame who kicked inside in the NFL and has consistently been one of the best lineman since. He had 32 7/8 inch arms and Skoronski will likely have something similar. If the Seahawks were able to draft the next Martin — of course that would be a really useful thing to do. Martin was rare though — a player who generated very little media hype in college but it was obvious to anyone who really studied him how gifted he was despite his length limitations and a fairly middling testing profile. He dominated opponents with power and intensity, did a great job in pass-pro and looked like a class act snap-to-snap.

Skoronski has some of the technical qualities Martin has but doesn’t look as good or as intense, not that it’s a big issue. At Notre Dame, Martin started 52 consecutive games. Skoronski has played in 33 straight games since emerging in 2020. Martin was seen as a safe, versatile pick and I think Skoronski will end up being viewed similarly.

How early are the Seahawks prepared to draft an interior O-liner? That’s a question that is difficult to answer. If they don’t qualify for the playoffs and end up with a mid-first round pick, it’ll be an interesting talking point. He might be able to tie down a guard spot, like Martin, for the next eight years. There’s something to be said for that — particularly on a team that has struggled at right guard and center this season.

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If you missed my second mock draft yesterday don’t forget to check it out

There’s something we probably need to be prepared for that we aren’t really discussing.

There are a lot of Seahawks fans who want the team to draft a top defensive lineman with their first pick — currently #3 overall courtesy of the Broncos.

The feeling is picking in the top-three will guarantee one of Jalen Carter or Will Anderson.

There is a scenario where that isn’t the case, however.

After writing my mock draft yesterday I went and had a look at what other teams’ fans are talking about on their forums. The Texans’ forum made for interesting reading. There seems to be a groundswell of support for Houston to take one of Carter or Anderson with the top pick, while adding a ‘stop-gap’ quarterback for 2023.

The feeling is the team is at the start of a massive rebuild. They have very few assets to actually build around. It’s plausible to launch a build with a top pick at quarterback. Yet it might actually be the worst environment for a young signal caller to come into.

If we assume the Texans are going to struggle for at least another year or two, they’ll be in position to add a top quarterback in future drafts.

Further to that — while I think this is a reasonable quarterback class in 2023 with four players worthy of being taken early, none of the quartet has truly separated from the pack. There isn’t a ‘must have’ player to select first overall. Neither, arguably, is there a player worth trading major stock for to get into the top-two picks to select one.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Carter and Anderson, in either order, go first and second overall. That would leave the Seahawks in a tricky situation if you are rooting for a defensive lineman with the #3 pick.

Despite a lot of hype in the mainstream media, I don’t believe you can justify taking Myles Murphy that early. I watched every Clemson game in 2022 specifically to observe their D-line talent. Murphy plays soft off the edge and you can target him in the running game. He looks like a great athlete who plays in flashes but he’s not someone in college who took over games or ever really dominated.

His frame is unrefined and lacks muscle definition which is an alarm bell for me. I think he’s just a natural athlete who is superior athletically to the competition in High School and college and ‘gets by’. When you get to the NFL, you can’t rely on that. Your power, technique, determination and consistency has to complement your athletic profile.

Murphy didn’t even start some games for Clemson this year because of his play. He was also spelled a fair bit and the hammering at Notre Dame was ugly. I don’t know how anyone can watch that game, where Murphy had his arse kicked for four quarters, and think ‘this is a guy I want to take in the top-five’.

On a supposedly super talented D-line (which so often flattered to deceive) he only had 6.5 sacks in 2022.

In a situation where Carter and Anderson are off the board, you almost have to consider taking the top quarterback. That is probably where the value is. Unless you see Tyree Wilson’s length and size as suitably unique, it’s a hard sell to go for the third D-liner available. While Wilson’s play is very good in flashes — he too is inconsistent and might struggle to be more than ‘good not great’ at the next level.

It’ll no doubt be pointed out that trading down would be a good option in this scenario. Perhaps. If someone isn’t prepared to trade into the top two picks, however, and with Arizona at #4 unlikely to draft a quarterback given their massive financial commitment to Kyler Murray, a great offer might not be forthcoming.

This is the problem with this draft class. There aren’t a cluster of top-10 worthy players. There are basically the four quarterbacks, Carter and Anderson and then two players at lesser positions — Bijan Robinson and Michael Mayer. There are no offensive linemen worthy of the top-five or any receivers or cornerbacks — three positions seen as premium picks in the modern NFL.

In previous drafts it’s probable that players like Carter and Anderson would go between #5-8 in the top-10. Due to the thin number of blue chippers, they could end up being the two ‘must have’ talents.

This is why I’d propose not getting your hopes up for one position or another and keeping an open mind. Don’t pick ‘team D-line’ or ‘team QB’. Be open to either. It’s not impossible for the top two picks to both be quarterbacks — with Houston taking one and then another team trading into #2. It’s also possible that the top two defenders come off the board before Seattle picks.

It might be worth rooting for the Texans and Bears to finish with a flourish. Chicago appears determined to lose out but Houston have somewhat winnable games against Jacksonville and Indianapolis. If they win both and the Broncos lose to the Chiefs and Chargers, the Seahawks will pick in the top-two. Houston has a great record against the Jaguars and the Colts are imploding. So there’s cause for optimism.

Meanwhile, I’ve never been one to root for ‘tanking’. It never interested me this year. It was more a case of if the Seahawks are bad, at least the reward is a high pick. That said, I’ve very little interest in Seattle backing into the playoffs as a bad seventh seed. The NFL has diluted its post-season with this seventh seed nonsense. It’s not just the Seahawks — you could argue the Packers, Commanders and Lions also have no business putting in a late tilt for the playoffs.

I think it’s overblown to think there’s anything to gain from playing in the playoffs. It’s often said the Seahawks have a young roster but in reality they have the 11th oldest roster in the NFL this season.

If they were winning as many as they were losing to end the season, you could probably muster some enthusiasm for a post-season run. Any given Sunday and all that. Yet with the team on a 1-5 run that includes a solitary victory against LA’s backups plus chastening defeats to Carolina and Las Vegas at home and numerous arse-kickings in the trenches, it’s hard to imagine anything other than a potentially embarrassing wildcard loss to the 49ers or Vikings.

Seattle currently has the #12 pick in the draft. Qualifying for the playoffs would mean, at best, having pick #19. I know you’re supposed to sit here and say you want the playoffs etc and be a good old fan. For me, I’d rather have another high pick. The higher the better. This team needs the best possible opportunity to add talent far more than it needs a wildcard game in the post-season for ‘experience’.

Get the ‘experience’ with a better team in the future when you’ve got a chance to actually win something.

Some other quick notes…

— If the Seahawks don’t take a quarterback early I’d be fully prepared to select Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the third or fourth round range. He’s been a blog favourite for some time, he’s a brilliant playmaker who can throw to all areas of the field and be creative with his legs. He’s not the big, tall, strong-armed dynamo that many teams are looking for but I do think he can become a Jalen Hurts type player in the right situation.

— Without wanting to sound like a stuck-record, I couldn’t help but watch the Eagles vs Cowboys game with some envy on Christmas Eve. Two highly competitive teams full of creativity and ideas. Even though both defenses gave up a lot of points, you saw numerous big plays. The Eagles had six sacks and a pick-six. The Cowboys had two interceptions. Both teams had over 400 yards on offense. It was a proper contest full of excitement. Watching it just made me think how boring it’s been to watch the Seahawks at times over the last few years, aside from a few flashes such as the four-game winning streak this season. For all the hand-wringing over Dallas’ lack of playoff success — the Seahawks only have three playoff wins in the last eight years. It was very easy to imagine Jonathan Gannon coming in to be Head Coach in Seattle to bring some of Philly’s philosophy to the PNW, or Kellen Moore coming in to run a dynamic offense with an experienced defensive coordinator by his side. I am so ready to see something different and new in Seattle.

— I think it’s time to consider getting rid of the Bowl games now that the playoffs are being expanded. They used to be much-watch TV — a final opportunity for players to finish a college career on a high or showcase their talents. Now most games are treated like a hindrance at the end of a long year. Top players sit out. Those who do participate often have an eye on the off-season and avoiding injury. I haven’t watched a single Bowl game so far and feel like I haven’t missed out at all.

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Time for my second mock with the Seahawks currently in a very interesting position with the #3 and #12 picks in the draft.

I’ve included two trades in this latest projection, one involving Seattle.

The focus is very much on the trenches. Since the game in Germany, the Seahawks have been dominated up front on both sides of the ball. They simply haven’t been competitive on the O-line or D-line during this 1-5 run. If that doesn’t change in the future, they will continue to be a mediocre team.

I will post the mock below with a blurb for each pick. I will then include projections for Seattle’s picks in rounds 2-3 before producing the full first round in list-form.

Mock draft #2

#1 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
Levis has the physical tools, the character and potential to be another Josh Allen or Justin Herbert. For those reasons, he has a chance to go first overall. Don’t focus on his 2022 numbers playing behind an O-line that gave up four times as many sacks per game as any of the other top QB’s in this class, while playing in a pro-style offense and not one of the wide-open spread schemes many of the others featured in. Mahomes, Allen and others all had issues in college. The key is to project and Levis projects very well to the league.

#2 Carolina (v/CHI) — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
Owner David Tepper has been seeking ‘special’ at the position for several years. Richardson has special qualities. The Panthers have a good defense, O-line and a talented top receiver. They can justify trading up to try and find ‘the guy’. They give the Bears an attractive package that includes a 2024 first round pick.

#3 Seattle — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
This would be an ideal scenario for the Seahawks. They badly need an interior disruptor. Will Anderson is more of a project as a 243lbs EDGE or OLB and while he would likely be the alternative pick, Seattle already has players like that on the roster that they haven’t been able to develop. Carter’s reported character question marks, per Todd McShay, are a concern and there are no such issues with Anderson. Yet it’s been too long since Seattle had someone who can blow things up from the inside.

#4 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
The Cardinals will likely do cartwheels if Anderson lasts to this spot. They badly need a quicker edge who can fill the void left by Chandler Jones.

#5 Indianapolis — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Being about 5-10 and 185lbs will be an issue for Young and could lead to a slight fall. Yet with so many teams desperate at quarterback he would provide a winners mentality, leadership and natural ability to a mess of a franchise.

#6 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
GM Terry Fontenot has been very consistent so far as a ‘BPA’ GM. He’s also collected skill players in the previous two drafts. Some Falcons fans will hate this pick but Robinson has a truly special skillset, will likely be the highest graded player on some boards and could help create one of the most dynamic offensive rosters in the league with Drake London and Kyle Pitts. He does everything well, a brilliant player.

#7 Detroit (v/LA) — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
It might seem redundant to trade T.J. Hockenson only to select another tight end in the top-10. However, Mayer is just an absolutely fantastic player who fits the mentality of the Dan Campbell Lions. He is a complete tight end.

#8 Chicago (v/CAR) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
The Bears trade down to acquire needed stock for their rebuild. It’s really hard to justify any offensive lineman here and the feeling is the league loves Wilson’s combination of size and amazing length. Chicago has a lot of cap space to improve their O-line.

#9 Las Vegas — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
This isn’t an ideal spot for the Raiders, just missing out on some players they’d probably covet. Johnston will produce an elite combine performance and likely propel himself into the top-15.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
He’s an excellent athlete with good size but the truth is he’s a pussycat. He plays in flashes only and you can get after him in the running game.

#11 Houston (v/CLE) — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
His ability to create late separation by going into a sixth gear is extremely impressive.

#12 Washington (v/SEA) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Although this franchise recently wasted a pick on a quarterback from Ohio State, the Commanders are in a desperate position. They are competitive but the constant question marks at QB are an issue. If one of the ‘big four’ starts to fall, they will surely be tempted to make their move. Jobs are on the line unless they find a good QB. They give the Seahawks pick #53 and a third round pick in 2024 to move up.

#13 Tennessee — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
For me he’s a pure guard rather than a tackle. I think he’s a bit overrated and I don’t think he’ll go as early as some are predicting. With the top two receivers off the board, the Titans pivot to the O-line.

#14 New England — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
Great bloodlines obviously but Porter Jr’s personality is the polar opposite to his father. He’s extremely grounded and likeable. I think teams will love his size, competitive nature and ability to recover and play the ball.

#15 NY Jets — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
He’s a Rolls Royce in coverage at times who can line up in the slot and cover. He occasionally packs a punch as a hitter. He’s a very versatile player who can line-up in a variety of positions.

#16 Pittsburgh — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
Just the kind of player you can imagine the Steelers loving. He will destroy the combine with his testing, he’s incredibly disruptive and can anchor from the nose.

#17 Green Bay — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
An incredibly underrated tackle who deserves far more attention. He shut-down Will Anderson.

#18 Detroit — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
The Lions have a ‘type’ and the sparky Gonzalez just fits it like a glove. Very athletic, very competitive.

#19 Tampa Bay — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
The closest thing to Aaron Donald since 2013. Even so, some teams will be cautious about drafting a 280lbs defensive tackle with short arms. I suspect whoever has the bollocks to draft him won’t regret it.

#20 Jacksonville — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
The Jaguars are building nicely and can afford to draft a player to further enhance Trevor Lawrence’s chances of becoming a top player.

#21 Seattle (v/WAS) — Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
The more I’ve watched of Van Pran the more impressed I’ve been. Seattle’s blocking scheme hasn’t called for a big investment at center and I do wonder if that will make this unlikely. They’ve basically written off the position for years, too. However, they need to be better in the trenches. Van Pran has an outstanding combination of power, aggression, an ability to progress to the second level and I suspect he can play in any system. For me, he’s the top center eligible for 2023.

#22 Miami — forfeited
With the season imploding for Miami, this is a big loss.

#23 NY Giants — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
Tillman’s body control, size and quickness make for a very intriguing prospect.

#24 LA Chargers — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
I think a fall for Bresee is possible. He simply hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently and his play is so erratic. You see great flashes from a brilliant athlete but there’s also a lot of ‘meh’ tape.

#25 Baltimore — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Great size, great speed and he had some tremendous plays on tape. He was also beaten far too often in 2022.

#26 Denver (v/SF) — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
A gritty player with good length and an ability to stick in coverage. I think some teams are really going to like him.

#27 Dallas — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Intensely competitive and he put together a very impressive 2022 season. Testing will determine how early he goes.

#28 Cincinnati — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
I don’t really understand Johnson Jr being mocked in the top-10. For me he’s an OK prospect who will need great testing numbers to reach those heights. I have him in round two as a grade. The Bengals need to keep building their O-line.

#29 Kansas City — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
His change of direction ability is unmatched. Flowers is a tremendous player who could do real damage in a prolific, creative passing attack.

#30 Minnesota — K.J. Henry (DE, Clemson)
For all the hype surrounding Murphy and Bresee — it was Henry who was the most consistently disruptive and reliable this year.

#31 Buffalo — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
He’s big and strong and looks like a Disney character with his helmet off but there’s something there. How do you judge a flash player though who wasn’t a full-time starter who moved around the line? His testing will dictate his stock.

#32 Philadelphia — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
As the year went on he gave up a few plays but the combine will be a big day for Turner given his excellent athleticism.

Seattle’s day two picks

R2 — #36 — J.L. Skinner (S, Boise State)
Skinner is a player I can well imagine the Seahawks see as a ‘must have’. I’m not one for hyperbole but he’s the closest thing we’ve seen to Kam Chancellor since the 2010 draft. He’s a big, rangy safety with great length who delivers an absolute killer blow in the open field. He will strike fear into the hearts of any receiver tasked with running a crossing route. He sifts through traffic brilliantly before drilling a ball-carrier. His coverage ability is very good too and he had four interceptions in 2022. He screams ‘Seahawks’ and it’s time for Seattle to revamp the safety position and get younger, quicker, healthier and more violent. I did contemplate taking a receiver here for the value — with Jonathan Mingo and Josh Downs being the two players I seriously considered.

R2 — #50 — Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
I think he’s such a tremendous player and better than the other offensive linemen being highly touted. He played left tackle in 2022 but his natural home is at guard. He’s only 6-2 and that helps win many leverage battles but he has fantastic length for his height (reportedly around 34 inch arms) which Seattle really focuses on. For me he had a terrific year at tackle and he’d be an excellent option to kick inside. I’ve been thinking the Seahawks wouldn’t spend big on their interior line but it’s played so poorly over the last few weeks I have them taking a center and a guard in the top-35.

R2 — #53 (v/WAS) — Byron Young (DT/DE, Alabama)
This is the pick acquired from Washington for moving down from #12 to #21. As with McFadden, Young is such a massively underrated player. I’ve watched all of Alabama’s games from 2022, as I’ve done with Clemson and their D-line. Young had impact plays every single week. He constantly broke into the backfield to disrupt. He had a couple of games where he threatened to takeover and while his stat line (four sacks, 5.5 TFL’s) doesn’t speak to his impact — it was well and truly there. He played the edge for Alabama at 6-3 and 292lbs and occasionally kicked inside but at the next level he’d be an ideal 3-4 DE or a potential three-technique. Is he ever going to be a game-wrecking dynamo in the NFL? No. What he will bring is consistency, a surprising number of pressures, an ability to hold the point of attack and help defend the run and he’ll attack his gap to move quarterbacks off the spot. I can well imagine him, in this scenario, lining up very close to Jalen Carter and causing chaos as a duo due to the 1v1 matchups he’d receive.

R3 — #81 — Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)
It feels like the Seahawks need to add a partner in crime for Ken Walker. I seriously considered UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet in round two. I think he’s a player the Seahawks will love due to his combination of explosive traits, size and ability to run through contact. Kenny McIntosh could be another player they covet. A player described, literally, as a ‘BAMF’ by his coach Kirby Smart — McIntosh’s ability as a pass-catcher complements an aggressive running style that would work together as an ideal third-down runner who can spell Walker. However, I think both players will be off the board by this point. Rodriguez wears #24 and idolises Marshawn Lynch. He has tried to copy his playing style and it shows. There are so many games on tape where you sit up in your seat and feel like you’re watching a poor man’s Marshawn. He carries tacklers, drives through contact, finishes every run and would be a tremendous battering-ram partner for Walker.

Seattle’s picks

Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
J.L. Skinner (S, Boise State)
Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
Byron Young (DE/DT, Alabama)
Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)

What are you getting from this group? Reinforcement in the trenches. Increased toughness on both sides of the ball. Aggressive, tone-setting players at positions of need. Players with the potential to be contributors early.

First round in list form

#1 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
#2 Carolina (v/CHI) — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
#3 Seattle — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
#4 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
#5 Indianapolis — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
#6 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
#7 Detroit (v/LA) — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
#8 Chicago (v/CAR) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
#9 Las Vegas — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
#11 Houston (v/CLE) — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
#12 Washington (v/SEA) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
#13 Tennessee — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
#14 New England — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
#15 NY Jets — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
#16 Pittsburgh — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
#17 Green Bay — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
#18 Detroit — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
#19 Tampa Bay — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
#20 Jacksonville — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
#21 Seattle (v/WAS) — Sedrick Van Pran (C, Georgia)
#22 Miami — forfeited
#23 NY Giants — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
#24 LA Chargers — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
#25 Baltimore — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
#26 Denver (v/SF) — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
#27 Dallas — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
#28 Cincinnati — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
#29 Kansas City — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
#30 Minnesota — K.J. Henry (DE, Clemson)
#31 Buffalo — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
#32 Philadelphia — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)

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There’s not a lot to feel about this game. Sure, the Seahawks made Kansas City uncomfortable at times in the second half with the way they ran the ball. Yet ultimately it’s another loss, their fifth in six games, and Seattle never threatened to win.

I’m sure a few moral victories will be claimed by those inclined to seek them out. We saw that after the Niners game too. ‘It wasn’t as bad as I expected‘. The Chiefs were taken to overtime last week by the hapless Texans and the week before that, were severely pushed by Denver in a 34-28 loss. They haven’t been playing that well recently.

Nevertheless, this one never got that close. In the first half, it was like watching a pre-season game played in second gear. The Chiefs sauntered to an advantage they never looked like relinquishing.

It was nice for the Seahawks to come out after half-time and show something but when the score is 17-3 — the damage is done at that point. It’s OK trying to establish a running game when you’re down by 14 points but if Seattle was ever going to win in Kansas City, that had to be something they accomplished much earlier.

To me it just feels like a predictable score. The Chiefs move on. The Seahawks lose again. They’ve taken a promising 6-3 start and gone 1-5 in the last six games. Which, frankly, is really poor.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

As the regular season winds down, the Seahawks have the toughest game on their entire 2022 schedule looming. A date against the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Chiefs have won their division but are still striving for that precious #1 seed in the AFC. Their attention to winning this game will not waver in the slightest.

They currently have the #1 scoring offense in the NFL. Their defense – while definitely not as good as the offense – has gravitated out of the bottom of the league in recent years and risen to middling this year. In other words, good enough to keep the team in balance.

You can see it in their losses. They have three losses on their card by only a combined ten points. They have been in every single game they have played — a credit to Andy Reid and his staff.

It is self-evident that the Seahawks will need to put together their best, most complete game of the season in order to beat the Chiefs. Mistakes and failures to capitalize on any Kansas City mistakes will be costly (more on that in a minute).

Apologies for sounding like a broken record but the only real watch point is once again — can the Seahawks run the ball and stop the run?

It is noteworthy that the Chiefs have run out a 38/62 run/pass split so far this season. They are one of the pass-heaviest teams in the NFL. Only four teams pass more often than the Chiefs. It makes sense. With Patrick Mahomes as your quarterback and weapons like Jason Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and JuJu Smith-Shuster to throw to, what would you do?

However, it would be folly to think the Seahawks’ horrible run defense will get a reprieve this week. Teams with similar pass-heavy attacks have recently decided to feature the run against the Seahawks and have had tremendous success. That includes Tampa Bay, the LA Rams and Las Vegas.

I am truly starting to wonder if the Falcons and Saints modelled how to run effectively on the Seahawks in the early part of the season and the only teams the Seahawks defeated during that four-game win streak either did not have the personnel or the coaching acumen to realize and exploit the weakness.

Well, they have been fully exposed now. The Seahawks are giving up an average of 161 rushing yards per game fourteen games into the season, bad enough for 31st in the NFL. The die is cast. Coach Reid would be foolish to not include a very healthy dose of runs in his game plan.

Taking a detour from their offensive mix is not without precedent. In 2020, they came up against a rising Buffalo Bills team and defeated them 26-17 by running the ball an astounding 46 times for 245 yards. They led the time of possession by 15 minutes – a whole quarter of football. Josh Allen only managed 122 yards passing as they slowly squeezed the life out of the Bills by holding onto the football.

It was a low-stress day for Patrick Mahomes as he was sacked only once and pressured only five times.

It should not shock anyone if the Chiefs devise a similar strategy. That is what I would do if I faced the Seahawks. Run the ball until you cannot anymore and keep their strength (their offense) off the field. And KC has the ultimate advantage: If the run is not working, they just put the ball in the hands of the most dynamic playmaker in the NFL and let him turbo-charge the scoreboard.

If it is working, they have saved some powder for the playoffs by giving Mahomes an easier day late in December.

Here is the challenge for the Seahawks though: do they see the potential for their opponent to come out with a run-heavy approach and will they prepare accordingly? Pete Carroll on Tuesday alluded to the fact that the Chiefs are a pass-heavy team and they will have to be good in that area. Which of course is true. But given what I have referenced above – teams that are traditionally feature passing have run on the Seahawks with great success – they must be prepared and ready for their opponent to do the same.

They cannot afford a coaching performance similar to the one they had against that 2020 Bills team in Week Nine – being completely unprepared for Buffalo to throw the ball as much as they did – when everyone in the NFL could see they were giving up passing yards at a historic rate.

On the other side of the ball, they badly need an effective game from the rushing offense. A return to form for Ken Walker would be most welcome. Particularly if it allows the Seahawks to control the clock a little and opens up the passing game for some shots for Geno Smith.

Perhaps with Tyler Lockett injured, the time has come for Dareke Young to get some attention on offense? He was used in college as a receiver/running back weapon at Lenoir-Rhyne. Maybe they could steal a couple of plays from the Niners’ playbook for Deebo Samuel for him?

I mention this because again on Tuesday, Pete Carroll heavily alluded to a ‘stay the course’ and ‘do what we do and the results will come’ mindset. When you play one of the best teams in the NFL though – with your current standard of play so low – wisdom should move you to consider having a couple wrinkles in your playbook to try and catch them off guard.

Those are once again the big points. But here are a couple other factors that could prove to be pivotal in this game.

Win The Battle of Mistakes

If the Chiefs have a weakness, it is making mistakes. They are an awful -6 in turnover differential (tied for third-worst in the NFL), their special teams have been a mess this year and they have given up 96 more yards in penalties than their opponents.

Take their loss to Indianapolis in Week Three as an example. They lost the game by three points but they left four points on the field in the form of a missed field goal and a missed PAT.

Special Teams cost them seven more points right out of the gate in the first quarter in the form of a muffed punt that Indy recovered inside the 5-yard line and scored a touchdown on. They tried a fake punt that did not work at all.

Late in the fourth quarter with a lead, they sacked Matt Ryan on a third down and were celebrating when a flag went up for unsportsmanlike conduct. Given new life, Ryan drove them for the game-winning touchdown.

And yet Mahomes still had the Chiefs in range for a field goal try late but threw an interception – another mistake – to seal the game.

Last week’s win against the one-win Texans that threatened to shock the NFL world? The Chiefs fumbled three times, lost two of them and again they left four points on the field with a missed PAT and a missed 51-yard field goal try as time expired.

In overtime, the offense stalled and had to punt. Frank Clark strip sacked Davis Mills and the Chiefs recovered to score and deny the upset. They lost some ‘mistake battles’ but won the ‘mistake war.’ The Seahawks need to win both to deliver the upset.

It is really hard to game plan for your opposition to make mistakes. That said, it does appear that mistakes are the Chiefs’ Achilles Heel. The best you can do is to avoid your own mistakes and game plan to effectively take advantage when these opportunities do arise. Aggressiveness needs to be an asset in this game.

The Chiefs are the better team, no doubt about that. Yet if the Seahawks are able to win in this area, this game could end up far closer than any of us expect.

Attack the Middle of the Field in the Passing Game to Set Up the Offense

We talked last week about how good the Niners defend the middle of the field. The Chiefs are at the other end of the spectrum. Every time I watched an opponent move the ball on offense against this defense, it nearly always included a very steady diet of slants, hooks, seam routes and dump offs to players in between the numbers.

I pulled the stats from the NextGen site for throws between the numbers against KC the last 6 games. and they are very convincing. Teams have been 97 for 120 for an excellent 80.8% completion percentage in this zone, with eight touchdowns against only three interceptions.

I also feel compelled to tell you that one of those games was against Bryce Perkins in his first NFL start and he was responsible for two of those interceptions.

Throw Perkins out and teams completed 83% of passes with seven touchdowns and one interception in five games.

This is not as glaring a weakness as the Seahawks’ run defense but if the Seahawks are not targeting this area of the field with regularity, they are really missing out.

How is Geno Smith doing targeting this area of the field? Have a look:

The deep middle is fantastic but the short middle is average and that is fine. I would still take his numbers against the Chiefs’ defensive vulnerability. Particularly in combo with his numbers to the edges of the field.

Is there another reason they should target this area of the field? There is.

The Chiefs have not yet faced an offense with the caliber of tight ends the Seahawks have. It is not even close. Of the top-10 tight end teams in terms of receptions, the Chiefs have only faced one – the Chargers twice – and old friend Gerald Everett had a nice game in the first matchup but missed the second.

With Tyler Lockett out and this scheme and zone advantage the Seahawks have, they really need to get good production out of their tight ends. It keeps the offense on schedule, reduces the pressure on Geno Smith (the Chiefs are one of the biggest blitzing teams in the NFL) and when you are in the middle of the field, the clock keeps running.

There is yet one more reason to keep the middle of the field in mind: it makes the defense more malleable to strikes to your star wide receivers on the edges or deep. The mental aspect of continually drawing attention and help to the middle of the field can only be a good thing for receivers like D.K. Metcalf and Marquise Goodwin in their matchups.

Speaking of Metcalf, the Seahawks badly need a dominant, star-level type of game from him on Saturday. It could be argued he only has two such performances this season: Week Four against Jeff Okuda in Detroit and Week Thirteen against Jalen Ramsey in Los Angeles.

Yes, Metcalf endured a scary-looking injury earlier this year. Yes, dumb penalties and drops have been an issue again as well. And yes, the tight ends, another great year by Tyler Lockett and an occasionally fantastic rushing attack have blunted the need for consistently big, game-altering performances from Metcalf.

Well, they need one from him on Saturday. More than ever. He signed a top contract this offseason and games like this are why.

The Chiefs do not feature a top group of corners. L’Jarious Sneed, Jaylen Watson and Joshua Williams have given up 14 touchdown passes, have been credited with 15 missed tackles and between the three of them are averaging over a 100 QB rating when targeted.

Metcalf needs to meet this moment and deliver on a national stage. He still has plenty of room to reach his ceiling. Rising to this challenge would further cement his place as a receiver that keeps defensive coordinators up at night.

It should not matter if the Chiefs decide to pull extra focus and direct it to Metcalf. If this team is to have a chance at beating maybe the best team in the NFL on Saturday, they will need a top performance from a top player.

It caught my eye a few weeks ago when Tony Pauline cited a source saying USC defensive lineman Tui Tuipolotu could go in round one.

I’d spoken briefly to Tony about Tuipolotu and we both agreed he was an incredibly difficult player to grade. In my horizontal board I went for round three simply because I was really struggling to balance out the pro’s and con’s.

He’s listed at 6-4 and 290lbs. He had a tremendous 2022 season with 12.5 sacks and 21 TFL’s.

Yet he’s also the reason why the word ‘tweener’ was invented.

There are a couple of players I really want to see testing results for. One is Tuipolotu and the other is Jared Verse the Florida State pass rusher. I don’t think I’ll be able to give a serious grade on either until after the combine.

I did want to share some thoughts on Tuipolotu though after re-watching three games today.

He has a Euro step. He has a cross-chop. He can win with a fake to the inside before exploding back to the edge. He can bend and straighten. There are wins with a bull-rush where he drives the tackle back into the quarterback. His get-off is good enough to put a tackle on skates. He fights through attempted blocks with good hands — swiping away from the tackle and ripping through contact. He converts speed to power. He can crash inside to attack the B-gap and fill in versus the run. His motor is generally good. He does a lot very well and his repertoire is impressive.

There are also inconsistencies on tape. As impactful as he is, there are stretches where he’s too easily blocked or washed out. He can’t press consistently to keep players away from his frame and you don’t see much of a long arm to stay clean and read the play. He plays in bursts. This is indicative of the key question mark.

He’s such an in-between player. He has the build of a smaller, specialist interior rusher but he rushes the edge well enough to play most of his snaps outside. His pass rushing grade per PFF is 80.6. He’s effective and I think he’s a better player at defensive end.

Yet he lacks the traditional long frame to play the edge. His arm length looks short too and I worry about his ability to keep blockers off his body at the next level consistently. He’s so quick at times and he has some bend and flexibility. Maybe his agility testing and burst will signal a unique talent? Yet his frame doesn’t lend itself to defensive end and I’m not sure a permanent move inside would work either.

Then you come back to the production and assortment of different pass rush wins and you want to rate him extremely highly.

He’s one of the hardest players I’ve tried to work out in a long while. I can well imagine him coming into the NFL and being a little bit inconsistent but finding a way to grab 8-12 sacks a season as a versatile piece who moves around the D-line. I can also imagine him being an ineffective tweener who just feasted on substandard PAC-12 teams and while he looked great rushing the edge in college — there aren’t really any players succeeding with his body type at the next level.

He’s a brilliant test case. If he does test well I can see a team taking a chance in the top-40. I can also see him being there in round three.

His brother Marlon plays for the Eagles. Incidentally, the Eagles defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon, has been touted as a potential candidate to replace Pete Carroll this week. Benjamin Allbright re-emphasised this week and even doubled-down on his initial speculation, suggesting John Schneider was ready to work with a new Head Coach.

I don’t think a Carroll-led defense would draft someone like Tuipolotu. A different coach might feel differently.

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This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast streams

I had a tweet exchange with Joe Fann yesterday and it got me thinking…

Can build an argument for it being best for all concerned

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) December 16, 2022

I hadn’t really considered the possibility of Pete Carroll walking away at the end of the season. Admittedly there’s a distinct possibility he will carry on.

The old saying is, though, that there’s no smoke without fire. And there’s a little bit of smoke blowing through the air at the moment.

Benjamin Allbright tweeted a list of potential teams looking for a new Head Coach earlier this week. He had the Seahawks on that list. When he was challenged on it, he mentioned a ‘possible retirement’.

Today he went a step further, declaring that Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon could end up being Seattle’s ‘top name’ to replace Carroll if he does indeed depart.

Admittedly it’s all speculation at this point but I don’t think it’s as unlikely as some people believe.

For starters, let’s refer back to everything we talked about yesterday. Carroll has struggled for years to establish his core philosophy in Seattle. The defense has been consistently poor, the running game stalls as soon as the latest running back injury happens and they’ve relied too much on the quarterback over the last few seasons, whether that’s Russell Wilson or Geno Smith.

At what point do you admit defeat and hand over the keys?

People like to paint Carroll as a stubborn coaching lifer who will see out his current contract no matter what. That could prove to be the case. Yet it’s often forgotten that five years ago, leading NFL insider Jay Glazer reported that Carroll was considering retirement at the end of the 2017 season — before his contract was due to expire. He then signed an extension in December 2018, during a largely positive season that had the Seahawks trending in the right direction — both in terms of his philosophy and results (wins vs Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes, for example).

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility he’s in a similar head-space now, contemplating whether to carry on. He might decide to return once again, just as he did in 2017. Yet if he is thinking of walking, this would be a good time.

Carroll has nothing left to prove. His status within football history is secure. He will always be known as a Seahawks legend and there’s something to be said for walking before you’re pushed.

It’s simply not realistic to just keep on going in the hope that you’ll win a Super Bowl to have a fairytale ending. You’ve got to have a team capable of writing that story. The Seahawks are a long way off and Carroll is 72 next year.

If he goes at the end of the year he’ll do so as a celebrated, much-loved figure in Seattle sports. He’ll be able to recharge and consider if he wants to coach again. If not, there are so many areas where Carroll’s skills as a motivator, culture-builder and leader would be valued.

The Seahawks could launch a fresh start with a haul of picks to help the new Head Coach create a new vision. It would help pave the way for a smoother transition than you’d typically expect when a long-standing coach departs.

If Carroll remains and they use the picks to build around the Clint Hurtt and Sean Desai-influenced defense, which is struggling badly, what happens if the results stay the same? Not only would the team be in a bad place but it’d be a horrible situation for a new Head Coach to inherit in the future. It could lead to another major rebuild being required down the line, without the benefit of a Wilson trade to pad out your stock.

I accept that this all might be as far from Carroll’s mind as anything. He might see the picks as simply a great opportunity to build a new defense. He might even be able to pull it off. As I said though, there’s no smoke without fire. Those tweets from Allbright describe a situation where some people in the league think Carroll isn’t necessarily of the mindset that he’s definitely coming back.

I do think there are reasons to think a change is needed. Carroll has unmatched talent as a motivator and leader but too many of the other things simply haven’t been good enough for too long.

He hasn’t been able to properly deliver his vision for this team for a long time. He hasn’t been able to create a proper defense for years and the play over the last couple of seasons in particular is a major cause for concern. The Seahawks are not a good home team (23-16 since 2018 and 16-15 at Lumen Field over the same period with fans in the stadium). Their playoff “success” since the Super Bowl loss to New England is merely three wins — a fluky Blair Walsh-inspired victory in Minnesota, a win against the Lions and a closer-than-it-should’ve-been win at Philadelphia who had to play a backup quarterback in his 40’s.

There hasn’t been an obvious sign of progress for a long time now. When one threatened to emerge this season in the form of a four-game winning streak, the next five games blasted that hope into the stratosphere with some of the worst defensive and complementary football we’ve seen — the two things that are supposed to be Carroll’s bread and butter.

Yes, the team is rebuilding. Yes, there have been positives this season — namely the play of Geno Smith and performances of certain rookies. I’m not sure we’ll ever see a great Carroll defense again though. I’m not sure we’ll ever see peak-Carroll football. It’s been too long now. The attempts to bring it back have failed.

Even in a rebuilding year, the defense and running game haven’t been consistently good enough. And let’s not pretend like the defensive unit they’re currently fielding hasn’t seen major investment in terms of picks and money over the last few years. The fact it isn’t good enough is an indictment of their spending.

A coaching change might not work out and I appreciate people will challenge why anyone would hope for that. What’s the alternative though? To never have anyone other than Carroll coach the team simply due to fear that the next guy might be no good?

There are risks with any coaching appointment. I would argue persevering with a coach who hasn’t been able to deliver his vision, his philosophy, a good defense or post-season success for multiple years is just as much of a risk as giving a new man an opportunity to come in and take this team to another level.

People will talk about experience and yet what was Carroll’s experience, with the Jets and Patriots, before he came to Seattle and made a success of it?

If you are minded to hope for change, what are you actually saying? That you want a change now — when the new coach gets to use a bunch of great picks to shape his team — rather than in 2025 when Carroll’s contract runs out and he’s 74-years-old and potentially unlikely to sign another? Are three more years of Carroll really that pivotal? Are they that likely to win a Super Bowl by 2025 or is this a longer term build anyway?

There’s one other thing I want to speculate on.

Why did in-demand Sean Desai take a job in Seattle as an associate Head Coach? Why, after the big meeting with Jody Allen that was downplayed by the media, did Ken Norton Jr lose his job and suddenly we see a move towards appointing Vic Fangio protégés with a defensive scheme change?

It felt like Carroll was ceding some control but what if it was more than that? Is it that out of the question that the new defensive plan and the staff appointments were with a view to the future? A view where Carroll’s scheme and ideas would be less prevalent because he wouldn’t necessarily be here much longer?

Was it part of a succession plan that could be brought into action within the next 1-3 years?

Maybe it’s 2+2=5 but Carroll hasn’t been a big advocate of bringing in outsiders to his coaching staff over the years. Neither has he really wavered on scheme — yet here he was, doing just that.

Or perhaps he was just told to do something different? Or actively suggested it to improve his standing in a meeting that felt bigger than it was reported, given what followed (coaching changes & the Wilson trade).

Again, this is a lot of speculative talk on my behalf. It does feel like a transition has begun though. I think John Schneider gained greater control after the meeting with Allen, for example. It would’ve been great to be a fly on the wall there, to find out exactly what was said and by whom.

I don’t really like writing about this subject because it’s a hot-button topic that makes people angry. There are plenty of Seahawks fans who don’t know what life is like without Pete Carroll. We’re coming up to 13 years since he was appointed. People have grown up with Carroll as Head Coach of the Seahawks and don’t even remember Jim Mora Jr or Mike Holmgren, let alone anyone else.

I think we’d do ourselves a disservice though, as a group of passionate Seahawks followers, to not at least consider possibilities.

People used to mock any suggestion that Russell Wilson would be traded. That continued right up to the point the deal with Denver was announced.

My suggestion would be don’t rule anything out. Do I think Carroll will depart? I wouldn’t bet any money on it. I do think it’s probably more of a possibility than some people think, however.

The next four games could have a big impact on what happens next.

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I remember it like it was yesterday.

23rd December, 2012.

The moment it became realistic to dream about winning it all.

The Seahawks hammered the 49ers. After three consecutive defeats to Jim Harbaugh’s crew, this felt like a turning point. A 42-13 obliteration. Even though the Niners went to the Super Bowl that year, we could all see what the Seahawks were becoming.

12 months later, they were on the road to a title.

The 2012 Niners game was immortalised in the brilliant ‘Rain City Redemption’ series. Included was a clip of Red Bryant firing his team-mates up pre-game.

“We run the ball, we win. We stop the run, we win”

Bryant barked out the line with gusto. It was a sign that everyone on the team knew what they were trying to achieve. What they intended to be.

That identity carried the Seahawks along. When it began to shift away from ‘run the ball with Marshawn and defend the run with physicality’ — the cracks began to form. We get to relive the fall-out on a nearly monthly basis thanks to Richard Sherman’s podcast.

The thing is, the Seahawks have tried for some time to get back to what they were. It’s years now since John Schneider told the media it was their intention to become the bullies again. They’ve re-set the roster twice — in 2018 and in 2022.

At no point have they been able to become what they intend to be.

Pete Carroll’s much debated philosophy remains a distant dream. An intention but not a reality.

Has a franchise ever been so clear in what it wants to be and so consistently failed to achieve it?

It says it all that yesterday, people on Twitter were actually crediting Seattle’s defense for not being so bad. They only gave up 170 rushing yards after all and 55 of those yards came on one play at the end! What an improvement from the previous few weeks.

The defense has allowed 1008 rushing yards in the last five games.

Stop the run and we win? No wonder they’re 1-4 in that stretch and were very nearly 0-5.

This has been a years long issue now. According to Football Outsiders — since the initial re-set in 2018, the Seahawks rank 22nd in defensive EPA per play and they haven’t finished a season ranked better than 17th in defensive DVOA.

Go beyond the analytics. In 2018 the pass rush solely relied on one player — Frank Clark. Then they traded him away. Since then, we’ve heard numerous mentions of prioritising this area for improvement. Year after year they fail to put together anything like a consistent, coherent, acceptable pass rush.

They’ve tried different co-ordinators, different schemes and different players. Carroll has appeared to be more hands-on at times and then this year, there was evidence of him perhaps ceding some input to the Vic Fangio-crowd. The results never change.

The Seahawks have a defensive-minded Head Coach and the defense is consistently dreadful.

Now the running game. If Marshawn Lynch needs an argument to be formed about his Hall of Fame candidacy — he just needs to point to the period of Carroll football where he hasn’t been the feature back.

In the Lynch days, the running game was consistent and set a tone. Even when the yards weren’t there — the attention Lynch demanded created opportunities for the passing game.

Since his initial retirement, what have we seen? Fluctuating form at best. At times Chris Carson shone and produced the balance Seattle craves on offense. Yet too often he would get injured and that would be that. Ditto Rashaad Penny. The occasional flash of brilliance, such as at the end of last season, but then more injuries. Ken Walker has shown moments of genuine quality this year. He too has had a couple of injuries already and is too often found looking for a home-run, rather than letting the blocking guide him to the right area.

Let’s look at the numbers for Seattle’s leading rushers over the last three seasons. Remember — this is a team determined to run as a focal point:

2020 — Chris Carson 681
2021 — Rashaad Penny 749
2022 — Ken Walker 696 (with four games remaining)

Run the ball and we win? The Seahawks’ running game deserves to be viewed as inconsistent at best. A more fitting description might be ‘not fit for purpose’ — at least not for a team so focused on making it a feature.

The one thing that has remained consistent since 2018 is the over-reliance on the quarterback. Between 2018-2020 the team basically lived and died on the arm of Russell Wilson. Now, the situation is exactly the same. Geno Smith carries the team instead. He gets almost no help from the defense or running game. Good luck Geno and if you don’t play like a Super Hero, we’re probably going to lose.

Unsurprisingly it isn’t working out for the QB.

There are plenty of teams out there who depend on the quarterback and are content living in that space. The Seahawks actively work hard to avoid becoming a one-man team and yet year after year, they find themselves relying on the QB.

We need to talk about this more.

Look — it’s not about calling for heads to roll or for people to be fired. I just think if we’re going to have all of the articles, tweets and attempts to serve crow when the going is good — we also need to have frank conversations about issues when they emerge too.

People were writing articles calling for apologies to be sent to Pete Carroll during the four-game winning streak. Perhaps, now that the team is on a 1-4 run and playing poorly, we can have a more serious debate about why we’ve seen the same problems re-appear for years?

I’ve no doubt the point will be made in response that they just need the benefit of a bounty of picks, courtesy of the Denver Broncos, to rectify the problem. That’s fine and perhaps that will prove to be the case. Yet we shouldn’t act like the Seahawks’ top brass have been a hapless bystander for years — handcuffed to a bad defensive unit.

They have created this group.

People talk about the D-line. It’s full of players they’ve drafted in the early rounds (L.J. Collier, Darrell Taylor, Boye Mafe), players they paid to retain (Poona Ford — with the highest cap-hit on the roster — and Bryan Mone) or retained over numerous years (Al Woods). This is their bunch of guys.

They’ve also spent a first round pick on Jordyn Brooks, a third rounder on Cody Barton, paid a high price to keep Quandre Diggs and a kings ransom to acquire and retain Jamal Adams.

A massive resource spend has created this group. Another massive resource spend isn’t guaranteed to do anything unless they get it right.

This is especially the case when you select someone like Mafe early in round two and then give him considerably fewer snaps than ‘signed off the couch and on the brink of retirement’ Bruce Irvin. I mean, look at the difference here:

vs Tampa Bay — Mafe 37.3%, Irvin 62.7%
vs Las Vegas — Mafe 35.1%, Irvin 68.8%
vs Carolina — Mafe 15.6%, Irvin 77.8%
vs San Francisco — Mafe 35.9%, Irvin 53.1%

Irvin’s PFF grade is a 62.2 and Mafe’s grading at 60.5. They both have two sacks. If their performance levels are almost identical — why is Mafe, a potential long-term piece for the defense, sitting and watching Irvin gobble up a bulk of the snaps?

It just doesn’t make any sense.

We’ve seen this before haven’t we? With the unspectacular Benson Mayowa regularly preferred to Alton Robinson over the previous two seasons.

As noted yesterday — there are big questions to be asked about whether the Seahawks need to bin-off the scheme they adopted this year. It isn’t working in Minnesota with Ed Donatell either, or in LA with Brandon Staley. It appears unless you have Vic Fangio, the Fangio defense just doesn’t work.

Also noted yesterday — the importance of being ruthless in the off-season. You cannot pay Diggs and Adams $36m combined in 2023. They shifted resource away from linebacker by cutting Bobby Wagner this year. They need to do the same at safety now — relying on younger, faster, healthier players and pumping extra money into the trenches. Ryan Neal is a perfect example of why spending big at safety isn’t necessary and there are safeties in the upcoming draft who can provide cheap value.

It’s also really important to be firm in asking — when are things going to change? When will a team that sets out to run and defend the run brilliantly, actually manage to pull it off?

How many years of failing to do so is acceptable?

At what point does the whole, ‘this season has been better than anyone expected!’ stop being used as acceptable blanket to cover all ills?

The Seahawks are 7-7 with a powder-puff schedule. We might not have expected Geno Smith to excel this year — but neither did we expect the Rams and Cardinals to be a shambles.

Seattle’s strength of schedule is just .450 compared to Detroit’s .550, Washington’s .545 and New York’s .550. Of the four teams in the race to be the crappy team who gets the seventh seed, the Seahawks’ schedule has been far more favourable.

Frankly, had they only won 4-5 games to this point — it’d actually be really bad given the opponents they’ve faced.

And I’ll mention again — Seattle is just 23-16 at home since 2018 and that’s with a 7-1 2021 record when they played a full year without fans. When the 12’s are actually in Lumen Field — since 2018 the team is only 16-15. That’s crazy.

These are all inconvenient truths that we can’t shy away from just because Geno Smith has played better than expected because aside from that, a lot of consistent problems remain.

If we don’t talk about them — if the media doesn’t talk about them — when will anything change?

If you’ve enjoyed the work and want to support the blog so that I can consider options for the pre-draft coverage in the new year, please consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)