It’s still early and things can change but I think the #1 pick is going to come down to a battle between two teams.

Who will offer the best package to Chicago? Indianapolis or Carolina.

The Colts have gone through Jacoby Brissett, Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Nick Foles and others. They need to draft a young, talented quarterback and arguably can’t afford to just sit at #4 and hope for the best.

David Tepper, the Panthers’ owner, is not a shrinking violet. He’s been chasing a quarterback splash ever since he bought the club. He’s seen his team compete like crazy in the second half of the 2022 season and he’ll probably believe they’re ‘a quarterback away’.

Indianapolis has the advantage of being able to offer the Bears the #4 pick. The Panthers will probably be more aggressive in trade talks because they’d need to make a bigger move to go from #9 to #1.

There are other teams who could get into the mix — Las Vegas for example, as they prepare to move on from Derek Carr. I just feel like the Colts and Panthers are the two to monitor at this early stage.

Chicago will be rubbing their hands with glee. They control the draft by getting ahead of the Texans for the #1 pick and can guarantee the quarterback of preference to any potential suitor. Before Houston’s win against the Colts, they could only guarantee QB2.

Their priority will be to determine how far they’re prepared to trade down. If the Colts do make an offer but it isn’t as strong as Carolina’s, are they more inclined to take it knowing they’ll still be able to draft one of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter at #4? Or are they simply after the biggest offer, which may come from the Panthers or someone else later on?

I will likely do mock drafts in the coming weeks where I project Indianapolis and Carolina trading into #1.

What happens will have a big impact on the Seahawks. For example, if the Bears trade with the Colts, it’s likely Anderson and Carter will be off the board — possibly forcing Seattle to take the third quarterback at #5. Alternatively if the Bears drop to #9, that likely creates a situation where three quarterbacks go in the top-four, delivering the Seahawks one of Anderson or Carter.

Let’s look at the two scenarios. I’m going to project where I think certain players are likely to go and it what it would mean for Seattle.

The Colts trade up from #4

#1 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
#2 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
#3 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
#4 Chicago (v/IND) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)

In this projection, the fact the Bears only trade down three spots takes the top two defenders off the board before the #5 pick. This would likely steer the Seahawks towards drafting a quarterback of the future.

Such a prospect is regularly rejected on Twitter by an army of Seahawks fans repelled by the idea of planning ahead at the position. As discussed already in detail, it’s something that should at least be considered.

It’s not disloyal or disrespectful of Geno Smith to note he turns 33 this year, is out of contract soon, isn’t guaranteed to provide years of quality play and simply might not be good enough to lead you to the promise land. It’s OK to acknowledge that might all be true while appreciating the unexpected highs he reached earlier in the season and hoping he can be retained on perhaps a two-year extension.

Smith’s also had some rough moments in recent weeks which have to at least make you pause on a massive, multi-year deal. He’s thrown 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions since Germany and had several other near-interceptions. It shouldn’t steer anyone to want rid of Smith but it should create a broader discussion about what the future looks like.

A best of both worlds situation would be to retain Smith as a bridge and then draft a longer-term alternative who won’t face the pressure to start immediately. Again, any talk of this is often derided as a ‘waste’ — but if Anderson or Carter are both off the board anyway, there’s little reason not to consider this.

Tyree Wilson and Myles Murphy are a hard sell at #5. Wilson has great size and length but his play is inconsistent and you worry about whether he’s twitchy enough to be a difference maker at the next level. Murphy will test well but looks like someone who’s been able to get by as a great athlete in college. He was spelled/benched at times for Clemson in 2022, his production is mediocre, his body lacks muscle definition and he was run all over by Notre Dame. He looks like a player who is going to require a rocket up the arse when he gets to the NFL.

In this first scenario my suggestion would be that the Seahawks strongly consider drafting Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson to sit behind Geno Smith with the intention of taking over in 2024 or 2025.

Young has a winners mentality, he’s naturally gifted and creative and he’s had an excellent college career. The problem, as everyone knows by now, is size. He’s said to be approximately 5-10/5-11 in height and around 185lbs. That is going to put a question mark in the mind of decision makers because nobody can project how that type of body will hold up in the NFL. There’s no precedent in the modern game.

Richardson meanwhile has superstar potential with a prototype frame, physical tools and the ability to make big plays with his legs or arm. He is far more developed than people give him credit for — he just needs time and experience. He shares a lot of similarities to Josh Allen in that regard but let’s also not forget that Justin Herbert and Patrick Mahomes also had plenty of doubters coming into the NFL.

It’s hard not to watch Richardson — or Will Levis — and not think ‘this is what John Schneider has typically sought at the position’. Stroud and Young are so talented, however, that they also surely carry appeal.

You don’t have to take my word on the order of the QB’s taken. If you want to mix things around that’s fine. Any of the top four would be a great pick — an investment for the future at the most important position. A chance to grab someone special at quarterback. This isn’t a luxury pick — you would still have another first rounder, two second rounders and a third rounder to address other needs.

The Panthers trade up from #4

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
#2 Houston — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
#3 Arizona — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
#4 Indianapolis — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)

In this situation, the Bears move out of the top five and increase the chances of three quarterbacks leaving the board before Seattle’s pick. If the Colts are content taking the third or fourth quarterback this could happen. If they grade QB3 or QB4 in the same range as QB1, they are less likely to try and get up to #1.

The Panthers at #9 have little chance of getting at a quarterback. I’m not convinced Anthony Richardson will last that long, for example. They are likely to be aggressive to solve this long-standing need.

Jalen Carter remains on the board and would be a strong option for Seattle at #5, along with Richardson. I suspect Will Anderson will be taken before Carter, simply due to the vast difference in how they’re perceived. Anderson is an amped up live-wire who plays with great effort. There have been well-publicised reports of character concerns for Carter and we all saw how gassed he looked against LSU and Ohio State.

The Seahawks have shown little fear in rolling the dice in the past and might be willing to take a chance on Carter’s potential due to the huge boom-factor of him working out. He’ll certainly need to do some serious fitness work in the off-season and he’ll need to allay character worries during the draft process. Yet there’s no doubting he might be the most talented player in the draft and at the very least he’s in the top-three.

Character, attitude and effort matters. Taking a flashy defensive tackle at #5 won’t mean much if he can’t play more than 40% of the snaps or creates issues behind the scenes. The risk factor has to be considered here and likely will be considered by teams (eg Arizona) who are provided an opportunity to weigh up Anderson vs Carter.

This is why Todd McShay called Carter a ‘hot-button name’ when reporting on the concerns within the league. It’s going to be discussed a lot, analysed a lot. One of the main reasons will be the lack of concern regarding Anderson or the top quarterbacks who all have no such character complaints.

One of the benefits of picking at #5 is other teams get to make your decision a lot easier. At #3 it might be very difficult to pick between Anderson, Carter and the third quarterback. That’s a very challenging call with a chance to look foolish if you get it wrong. If the decision comes down to Carter and the fourth quarterback on the board, there’s probably going to be less blowback if the pick goes wrong. It’ll be seen as a ‘no brainer’ to take Carter and there might be a decent grading difference between the top three quarterbacks and Anthony Richardson — who has a lot less starting experience.

For Seahawks fans desperate for the team to draft a defensive lineman and are worried falling to #5 takes them out of range for Anderson or Carter — this is a realistic scenario that keeps one of them on the board.

Final thoughts

Ultimately this is just a follow-up to what I wrote yesterday. Having #3 instead of #5 is obviously preferable. That’s stating the obvious. However — the Seahawks are guaranteed to be in position to draft one of:

C.J. Stroud
Will Levis
Bryce Young
Anthony Richardson
Will Anderson
Jalen Carter

That’s a really good group and any of the six are worth the pick.

This is a good thing for the Seahawks.

There are going to be other scenarios worth discussing as time goes on. I don’t think it’s out of the realms of possibility Houston takes a defender at #2, especially if they love Anderson or Carter. We’ve got plenty of time to break it all down.

I will again plead with fans to be open minded about the possibility of a quarterback or a defensive lineman at #5. Both options should and almost certainly will be considered.

I’d also ask for people to not believe everything you read about these players in the mainstream media. There are plenty of false narratives out there about this quarterback class — and about some of the defenders too.

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The football gods conspired against the Seahawks on Sunday — with Indianapolis ridiculously blowing their game against the Texans, the Cardinals predictably being pummelled by the Niners and the Broncos ending their season on a high against the Chargers.

Seattle dropped from the #3 pick to #5 — a frustrating turn of events after weeks of sitting in the #2 or #3 spot.

However, I don’t think there’s any real reason for fans to be too upset.

This isn’t a draft class loaded with blue-chip players. However, picking at #5 guarantees you will get one of the few available.

My biggest fear midway through the season was that Denver would right their ship and win enough games to sink Seattle into the #8-12 range. From there, it would’ve been quite bleak. You’d be reaching on a prospect undeserving of the draft range.

Instead, the Seahawks will get a really good player.

So who’s available?

There are two defensive linemen worthy of the pick — the often discussed Will Anderson and Jalen Carter.

I think any of the top-four quarterbacks are worth the pick — C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Bryce Young or Anthony Richardson. There are a lot of lazy opinions formed about this quartet but having watched every game they’ve all played in college — this is a good quarterback class and all warrant consideration early in round one.

There are two other players who I think deserve very high grades. They are Texas running back Bijan Robinson and Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer.

There are other players deserving of fringe first round grades but I think players like Myles Murphy and Tyree Wilson are being slightly overhyped.

Let’s assume the Seahawks are not going to take a running back or tight end with the #5 pick. They will definitely get one of the top four quarterbacks or one of the top defensive lineman. That’s a great position to be in.

Obviously if you’re picking at #3 it’s a better situation. For example, dropping below Indianapolis means there’s a real possibility they’ll take the quarterback you really like. There’s far less control of your draft destiny at #5.

This is still a bonus pick though, let’s not forget that. Nobody expected Denver to be quite as bad as they ended up being. It’s a great asset and while picking higher would’ve been great, you can’t look a gift-horse in the mouth.

Denver winning their last game was somewhat predictable and the Chargers kept their starters in. They didn’t use this as a bye week. So there’s little hand-wringing to be had.

I’ll do a mock draft in the coming days (maybe tomorrow) but I think there are a few scenarios to consider.

Chicago now controls the draft and will likely take calls for the #1 pick. With so many teams needing a quarterback, they’ll likely receive very attractive offers.

There doesn’t need to be a ‘clear #1’ like an Andrew Luck or Trevor Lawrence. Teams like Indianapolis have been desperate for years, jumping from one ageing veteran to the next. Having the #1 pick eliminates any doubt that a.) they’ll land a young QB and b.) they’ll get the one they really want.

The Colts are the team I would predict in this ‘way too early’ thinking out loud session as the team that will trade up to #1. That would enable them to get a young quarterback and Chicago would still pick at #4 — guaranteeing, in all likelihood, one of Will Anderson or Jalen Carter.

That would be preferable to the Bears compared to dealing with Las Vegas at #7 or Carolina at #9. They would have to trade too far down the board.

This would set up a situation where we could see:

#1 Colts (via/CHI) — quarterback
#2 Houston — quarterback
#3 Arizona — D-line
#4 Chicago — D-line

That would leave QB3 to Seattle — and they could either take that player or check out any offers to move down.

I also think it’s possible Houston could take a defensive player. Some teams may not be sold on the quarterbacks. I don’t think the Texans looked like a team, today, that felt like it desperately had to have the #1 pick. They might prefer Will Anderson or Jalen Carter anyway.

Equally — we could see a situation where a team outside of the top-five trades up to #1 and the quarterbacks go first, second and fourth. That would leave Seattle with whichever defender Arizona doesn’t take.

So the Seahawks are left waiting on other teams to make a call but it’s reassuring to think one of Stroud, Levis, Young, Richardson, Anderson or Carter can be theirs.

I also wouldn’t totally rule out the Seahawks trading up. After all, John Schneider has been dreaming about options at #3 for the last few weeks. What if there’s a player he expected to get who might now be out of reach that he can’t live without?

It’s still too early to talk about this stuff with any clarity. We’ve not even had the Senior Bowl yet. I wanted to highlight there are good options though at #5. That’s from someone who has watched 10-12 college football games a week since September in a mission to get to know this class properly ahead of a pivotal draft for the Seahawks.

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel.

The NFL marathon of the regular season is nearly over.  There is just one more game on the docket and it is against a hated division foe, at home in Seattle with their playoff lives on the line, no less.

The Seahawks have an annoying trend going.  Finishing the year on an up-note and winning the last couple games of the season long after any hopes of a really good playoff seeding have been extinguished.  They are like that golfer who starts out well, blows up on a couple holes on the back nine but ends the round with a nice drive or a clutch putt on the 18^th hole.  That is what keeps you coming back.

Can they end the season in that typical fashion?  We will see.  The Rams are a wounded animal.

Not many Super Bowl champions can claim to have as horrible a following season as the 2022 Rams.  They are more than ready to finish out a nightmare of a season.  Last week, they faced an amped up Chargers team in the thick of the playoff race and they could not muster any energy to meet the moment.  They looked like they were sleepwalking through the game.  The Chargers mopped the field with them and did whatever they wanted to.

Will the Rams be more up for this game?  No doubt they will be.  It is a division game and at this point all the Rams have to motivate them is ‘at least we spoiled a division opponent who was trying to backdoor their way into the playoffs.’  

It might be enough if the Seahawks are not careful.

How can the Seahawks win this game?

Running the ball and stopping the run.  If you are tired of hearing me say that, please know that I am tired of saying it.  Watching this run defense and hoping that the running game can support Geno Smith has been a dreadful experience at times this year.

The Seahawks have one more shot to deliver on their formula.

When the Rams have the Ball

Mission #1 is to stop Cam Akers.  He has been extremely effective running the ball in his last two games, turning 42 carries into 241 yards and 3 touchdowns.  That is 5.73 yards per carry.

You should know those fabulous numbers are not being propped up by a couple fantastic runs followed by a bunch of duds.  Of those 42 carries, Akers gained 5 yards or more on 19 of them – nearly half the time.  He has been consistently good and that spells trouble for the Seahawks defense.

Last week the Jets only gained 75 yards on the ground against the Seahawks, their second-best performance on run defense this season.  Unfortunately it is not much to be proud of.  As I said in last week’s preview, the Jets might be the worst run offense in the NFL at the moment and they still managed to average 4.41 yards per carry against the Seahawks.  The only reason they did not get more yards is because the coaching staff inexplicably ran the ball only seventeen times in the game.  They asked Mike White – Mike White! – to carry the offense by throwing 46 times in the game, while the running backs were effectively moving on one of the worst run defenses in the NFL.  White did not reward their trust and the game was comfortably in hand for the Seahawks.

Do you think Sean McVay will make the same mistake?  Me neither.

He will find ways to keep Akers hot.  Might as well leave it all out on the field, right?

If Akers is contained, that puts a lot of pressure on Baker Mayfield to carry the offense — who at this point in time he is not much better than Mike White.  

He had a memorable win in his first game with the Rams days after being picked up, then beat the Broncos.  He quickly came back down to earth the following week against the Chargers.  Why?

The Chargers defense came to play, whereas the broken and demoralized Broncos defense did not.

McVay designed several simple plays for Mayfield, completely understandable as he had to suit up before even shaking hands with most of his teammates.  When Mayfield is called to play simply and there is not a pass rush in his face, he is fine.  Screens, dumpoffs to Akers in the flat and simple slant throws are relatively easy to make when the defense is not pressuring you.

He also has been very effective on designed rollouts, plays where the offense is lined up on a hash mark that call for him to roll out to the other side of the field and have a couple targets to choose from, a near target for 4-6 yards and a deeper target for 10-15.

They work well when he has Akers on his game to play-action to in order to draw the defense away from him and has a wide swath of field and time to make decisions.

When he has rushers in his face pressuring him to scramble, he turns back into the Baker Mayfield that got unceremoniously dumped by two different organizations this year.

Edge players like Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor and Boye Mafe will need to be smart and disruptive.  If they can create pressure in standard packages, that will cause all kinds of trouble for Mayfield.  It would be an added bonus if they could smartly handle those designed roll outs by either covering their assigned man or quickly getting upfield and into the quarterback’s face and taking away those easy choice throws.

It would be a huge bonus if they could get some inside pressure as well.  Mayfield is not the quickest at backpedaling and processing the play.  If he has direct pressure coming from the middle that narrows the gap, he will struggle to make plays.  If he has time, like any quarterback worth his salt, he is effective.

Evidence:  In the Broncos game, Mayfield was not sacked and the offense converted 6 of 10 third downs on their way to a 51-point day.  

The Chargers game?  He was sacked three times.  All three were on third down and killed the drive and on one of them he was stripped and the Chargers recovered the ball.

Blitz if you have to, Seahawks.  Get in Mayfield’s face and good things will happen.

In the last three games, the Seahawks defense is 10^th in the NFL in third down percentage, a vast improvement over their 28^th overall for the season.  The difference between a feel-good win and an absolutely frustrating loss to end the season will likely come down to how the defense performs on third down.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

Run the ball.  Run the ball some more.  And then run the ball again.

The Rams have given up 100 yards rushing in five of their last six games (ironically the sixth is when Seattle only managed 90 yards rushing due to Ken Walker leaving the game early – and he had 36 yards in only three rushes).

The Rams have lost four of those six games.  One of those wins featured the Broncos turning the ball over four times.  The other?  A win against the Raiders in a performance by Derek Carr that started all the drama about him being benched and his future in Las Vegas questioned.

The Rams run defense has regressed badly.  How badly?  In Week Thirteen, when the Seahawks went to LA for their first matchup, the Rams entered that game standing at 5^th in the NFL in rushing defense.  Only four games later they are now 10^th.  They dropped five whole positions very late in the season.

Teams are running right up the gut on the Rams at will and they are playing like they are broken and just playing the string out.

As Tom Waits sang, “The ship is sinking, the ship is sinking.  There’s a leak, there’s a leak in the boiler room.”

Give Ken Walker all the carries he can handle.  Let him move demoralize this defense.  Make Geno Smith’s day an easy one and we can all end the season with a nice win.

If the Seahawks can run the ball well, not only will it make Smith’s day easier, it will open up opportunities for D.K. Metcalf to turn in a repeat performance against Jalen Ramsey.  Metcalf may not be having the season we all expected of him but there is no doubt he is a highly competitive gamer.  Torching Ramsey again would nicely cap the season for him.

In Week Thirteen Geno Smith led a game-winning drive against the Rams that was a wonderful answer to the ‘yeah but’ crowd when discussing how good he has been this year.  He capped it with a brilliant pass to D.K. Metcalf after drifting in the pocket to avoid pressure and buy some time.

Yeah but he had two turnovers that made the game much harder than it should have been (see what I did there?).  He had a fumble near the Red Zone after not protecting the ball on a great scramble.  He also was intercepted just outside the Red Zone by Bobby Wagner (albeit on a controversial call that should have gone the Seahawks’ way).  

A clean day on the turnover sheet and an effective ground game will produce a low-stress day for the Seahawks.

The Chargers last week did not have any turnovers and pounded the ball on the ground to make for an easy win.  Justin Herbert was perfectly fine, going 24-31 for 239 yards and two touchdown passes.  A game like that is well within Geno’s grasp.

An efficient and effective game would cap his fantastic and improbable regular season in a fine way and be a great selling point to any potential suitors in the free agent market, including his own Seattle Seahawks.  It may seem symbolic but there will be tremendous incentive to end the season on a high note.

Final Thoughts

As we come to the last game of the season, I feel forced to reflect on the utterly high level of unpredictable strangeness we have all witnessed this year in the sphere around this team.

Beating Russell Wilson in Week One.

Geno Smith shocking the world and playing highly competent football.

A four-game winning streak where they looked unbeatable.  Losing five out of six and looking very, very beatable.

Rashaad Penny struggling to get in gear, then getting in gear and absolutely exploding through defenses.  Then just as quickly disappearing from the team with another injury.

A rookie class that actually delivered better results than we thought they would when we were popping champagne corks in April.

Missed tackle after missed tackle on defense.  Players not even lined up right.  Not even knowing what their assignments were.  Bad teams running the ball at will.

Russell Wilson being utterly incapable of stopping the train from going off the tracks in Denver and delivering the Seahawks a top-5 draft pick.

Tyler Lockett being Tyler Lockett.

What a strange, wonderful, frustrating, unexpected and perplexing year it was.

It was my pleasure to share it with all of you.  To enjoy the triumphs and shake our collective heads together at the sorrows and resolutely work our way through the week to the next contest.

Thank you, Rob, for the opportunity once again to post here.

Thank you to the community for the support.  

The Seahawks’ offseason is coming and it will be one of the biggest ones in many years.  If you want the inside scoop on how they can best take advantage of it, this is the place.

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All the best.

I think the three best offensive linemen in this draft are Tennessee right tackle Darnell Wright, Ohio State right tackle Dawand Jones and Georgia center Sedrick Van Pran. They are all superior, in my view, to the much more touted Paris Johnson jr, Peter Skoronski, O’Cyrus Torrence, John Michael Schmitz and Broderick Jones.

I think Van Pran should be a top target for the Seahawks. He plays with a ‘wow’ factor you don’t see at center very often. His performance against Ohio State was a perfect illustration of his talent.

Look at this run by Kenny McIntosh last weekend:

Georgia center Sedrick Van Pran-Granger makes the key block to open up this run for Kenny McIntosh in the Peach Bowl. Great job with the combo on the NT before sealing the LB off.

Van Pran-Granger is one of the best centers in the 2023 NFL Draft. pic.twitter.com/0dFjMtidLb

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) January 1, 2023

See how Van Pran engages the nose tackle then passes him off, reaches up to the second level to latch onto the linebacker and spring a huge running lane.

You see this so often on tape — his ability to make the initial block and have the football IQ to kick out to a linebacker and drive people out of the way to deliver big holes. He also has the athleticism, mobility and raw power to be effective whatever the call. It’s OK having the will to do it but he also has the skill.

He can pass-pro and anchor, he can drive people off the LOS in the running game, he combo blocks with great efficiency. I find it very hard to find flaws when watching him and he’s been one of the more exciting players to study this season.

Georgia are very creative with their runs and you see several times they’ll pull the center and right guard off the snap and have the running back follow them. There was one really noticeable run against Tennessee where they did this and Van Pran absolutely annihilated the second level defender, dumping him on his back.

When he’s in pass-pro you can see he’s so light on his feet. Georgia spreads the line out and trusts their guys to block in space. Van Pran is very capable of tip-tapping across the line waiting for the moment to strike and he can switch immediately from finesse to violence when he locks on, gets into your pads and controls. He stays on his blocks so well and constantly finishes.

There are plenty of pancakes on tape if you like those (and who doesn’t?). There are subtle moments too which just make everything come together. Turning a defender ever so slightly to work an opening for the running back. Extending his arms at the right moment and forcing power through his hands and into the chest and up, arching his back and creating great leverage from which it’s really difficult to disconnect because you’re off balance before you even begin to try and counter.

His footwork is mostly clean and he can drop and set in pass-pro with a wide base.

Van Pran looks like the complete package. He has excellent size at 6-4 and 310lbs and carries it brilliantly with minimal bad weight. He has the power to line-up in front-on schemes and the athleticism to get on the move. You could argue at times there are little technical things he can work on with hand placement (sometimes he’s a bit high) and his feet but he’s only 21-years-old and has time on his side.

Zacch Pickens is one of the better defensive tackles in the 2023 draft but Van Pran had some great battles with him — working his hands inside despite some nice counters from Pickens and retaining position, leverage and finishing the blocks. That’s not easy against an athletic, powerful interior rusher. Pickens beat him on one rep due to a false step and that’s the kind of thing he needs to straighten out but he’s so close to being nice and clean.

You can see with the way he identifies opportunities to progress that he has natural football intelligence and he comes across superbly in interviews with a mature, modest approach.

There are no testing numbers through SPARQ but he was already 302lbs in High School and a former four-star recruit.

The Seahawks have needed a quality center for a long time. Here’s a potential fix. I think he’s a clear top-40 pick.

Seattle’s starting center and the two players they’ve been using at right guard are all out of contract. Investing in the O-line through the draft has worked for them recently and another couple of O-line picks wouldn’t go amiss, especially with options in this draft.

At right guard it’d also be good to look at Jordan McFadden — Clemson’s left tackle who is better suited to guard with his 6-2 height and 34 inch arms. The LA Rams scheme has often called for tackles to switch to guard. I’d even consider Darnell Wright for such a move but I suspect he will go too early and considering he shut-down Will Anderson, it’d almost be a waste to kick him inside. I’d say the same for the enormous Dawand Jones. It’d also be a shame to see him stuck at guard with his freaky size and speed combo.

If they’re willing to take a pure guard, TCU’s Steve Avila is one of the best available. I’d add Cooper Beebe to the list but he appears set to stay at Kansas State (although no official confirmation has been made yet).

There will also be some other centers worth looking at. Joe Tippman at Wisconsin is flying under the radar but he’s incredibly athletic and explosive with massive potential. Ditto Ricky Stromberg at Arkansas — another very athletic, talented player.

I’ve been grading both players in round two but they could be available later than that if the Seahawks wanted to add a player at value with upside.

Michigan’s Olusegun Oluwatimi has had a strong season but apparently he has athletic limitations. Ohio State’s Luke Wypler is steady if unspectacular. Alex Forsyth at Oregon gives absolutely everything and his effort and performance could appeal even if he isn’t expected to test particularly well.

The Seahawks have options and should be able to further add youth and talent to their O-line in 2023.

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Earlier today a new mock draft was posted by ‘The 33rd Team’ — a website that has recruited a number of experienced contributors from within the NFL including current players, former executives and coaches.

For that reason I think it’s a projection worth paying attention to. There’s no name attached to the mock, suggesting it’s a collaborative effort. As you can see within the article, there’s analysis from broadcaster Charles Davis and former Vikings GM Rick Spielman discussing the prospects included.

Three QBs go in the top 5️⃣ in our newest mock draft

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) January 4, 2023

I wanted to discuss this mock because it delivers a projection worthy of a conversation.

They have Bryce Young going first overall to the Texans. Personally, I think this is unlikely. Young’s size isn’t really being talked about as a flashpoint but I suspect it will be. There’s a chance the Texans will be enamoured by his natural ability, excellent demeanour and college performance. However, there’s no getting away from his 5-10 and 185lbs frame being far removed from anything we’ve seen in the NFL before.

With other similarly graded QB’s available who fit the ‘big, strong, athletic’ prototype, I suspect Young will last a bit longer than most mocks are suggesting. I wouldn’t anticipate a big fall but I also wouldn’t expect him to be the first quarterback taken. Top-10 remains a possibility though.

‘The 33rd Team’ themselves have Young listed at #12 on their internal big board — presumably due to the size factor.

Nevertheless, he’s first off the board in this mock.

The Bears make a pick at #2 and don’t trade down. They select Will Anderson.

Increasingly I think it’s inevitable Chicago will move down to acquire extra stock. They have a shell of a roster. They don’t have extra picks to spend and are in the middle of a massive rebuild.

I think a deal could be struck long before the draft takes place. We’ve seen pre-draft trades in recent years.

The Rams and Eagles traded into the top two picks in 2016 long before the draft. They knew there were two quarterbacks they were comfortable drafting at the top of the board (Jared Goff and Carson Wentz) and therefore had no reason to wait until draft day to make their move.

The 49ers traded up to #3 in 2021, again knowing they liked at least three quarterbacks and would be guaranteed one by having a top-three pick. Then, the Dolphins (who made the trade with the Niners) traded up to #6 with the Eagles.

Last year the Saints gave Philly their 2023 first rounder for the #19 pick — again long before the draft started.

All of these deals happened before any team was on the clock.

With so many teams needing a quarterback, I can imagine suitors looking at the Bears and preparing a bid for when the new league year begins. I think a bidding war will likely ensue and the Bears (and possibly the Texans) will get great offers.

In the top-10 alone — Indianapolis, Detroit, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Carolina all need a QB. Possibly Seattle too. You can include Tennessee and Washington, just outside the top-10. Plus the Jets and Tampa Bay.

People in the media have soured on this QB class after hyping it up to the max last summer. However, we saw this in the Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson year. I think the teams are readying themselves to get after the top four QB’s and we’ll see an early rush on the position.

The Bears have already announced they are sitting Justin Fields this week. I suspect the reason is two-fold — to rest the battered quarterback but to also give themselves the best possible opportunity to control the draft by ‘earning’ the #1 pick. If (when) the Bears lose to the Vikings, they would gain the #1 pick from Houston if the Texans beat the struggling Colts.

One way or another, I think the Bears are going to be determined to trade down. I think it’s very likely two quarterbacks will go first and second, unless the Texans decide to take a defender first overall.

If this happens — the Seahawks themselves might get a big offer for the chance to get to the third quarterback — just as the Dolphins did in 2021 via the 49ers. They might prefer to draft the third quarterback themselves, to stash behind Geno Smith as a long-term successor. Or they may take whoever they prefer from Will Anderson or Jalen Carter.

Either way, there are options.

I’m going to find it hard to do a mock myself where I don’t have the Bears trading down. That’s a key reason why I wanted to highlight this mock as an alternative. Chicago takes Anderson and the Seahawks take C.J. Stroud.

Quite aside from the fact Stroud looks fantastic in his Seahawks jersey mock-up in the article, he might quite like landing in Seattle:

Seahawks https://t.co/YBioX3WFnx

— CJ Stroud (@CJ7STROUD) June 14, 2015

Without wanting to go over old ground too much, I think it would be a really justifiable pick by the Seahawks.

Stroud is a fantastic passer of a football. I’ve not watched a player throw with his level of touch since starting the blog in 2008. His ability to throw to all areas of the field with accuracy and perfect velocity is so impressive. His ball-placement is elite even on longer, downfield throws.

The only question mark I ever had was his ability to play off-script and away from the constraints of the Ohio State system. Frankly, I think it’s poor on the coaches at Ohio State that they didn’t take the shackles off and let Stroud run the offense this year. He was still getting coverage advice and adjustments from the sideline. He didn’t run the show. It was all too rigid and it’s why — as with Michael Penix Jr and Hendon Hooker — we saw ugly interceptions where the scheme calls to look off the safety and throw almost blind to a spot. When the defense ID’s it — it’s easy to anticipate and make a play on the ball.

We’ve seen other Ohio State quarterbacks struggle when they don’t have the benefit of playing on a loaded roster while having their hand held at the sideline. Stroud is a far more naturally gifted passer that Cardale Jones, Dwayne Haskins or Justin Fields. Yet there was a lingering worry over his environment at Ohio State not being great preparation for the league.

The Georgia game changed everything for me. For the first time Stroud showed he could handle pressure up front, improvise in the pocket and extend plays. He kept his eyes downfield and threw wonderful, exceptional passes into tight windows. He escaped the pocket and flashed great athleticism as a runner. He put in a complete performance against the best team in college football.

Seeing that happen, against Georgia no less, convinced me he can be a top, top player in the NFL. He might need a bit of time and he might experience some teething problems. There’s no doubt though — he at least has the potential to join the Mahomes/Allen/Herbert/Burrow group and be part of the next generation of top QB’s. It doesn’t mean it’ll happen but it’s possible.

Talent is talent at the end of the day. Stroud, like Will Levis, has skills you just can’t teach. If Stroud is off the board when Seattle picks, the Seahawks should also strongly consider taking Levis:

Will Levis is smooth w it ❄️pic.twitter.com/mOVEZbvbOX

— Footballism (@FootbaIIism) January 3, 2023

Setting up an Alex Smith-to-Mahomes style torch-passing would be ideal for Seattle. Aside from the fact they’d still have another first round pick, two second round picks and a third round pick to improve the defense — they could potentially create a best of both worlds scenario. Short term improvement for the defense, keep a good veteran starting QB while also having a long term plan at quarterback.

You bring back Geno Smith as the starter on a two or three-year deal. If you decide to move on in 2024 or 2025 — you might be able to trade Smith. The Chiefs got Kendall Fuller and a third rounder out of Washington when they dealt Alex Smith to turn to Mahomes after a redshirt season.

There was no drama behind the scenes as Mahomes waited for his chance. I suspect Geno Smith would be highly motivated by the prospect of competition and would up the ante, even with a new handsome contract, to keep his gig (or win a chance elsewhere after 2023). Stroud, Levis, Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson all have excellent character and are unlikely to create any internal problems.

To me it makes perfect sense. Far more sense than ignoring the position because you think a player who turns 33 next October is capable of leading you to the promise land while defying Father Time to play deep into his 30’s (which, let’s accept, most players cannot do — not everyone is Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers).

I think there could be an interesting dynamic coming up if John Schneider really likes one of the quarterbacks in this draft (and I suspect he will). Is he likely to want to go in that direction, setting up the long-term future of the team? After all, by all accounts he was keen to draft Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Is he really going to pass on the opportunity to draft a quarterback in the top-five this year, simply because Geno Smith has had an unexpected season aged 32?

Alternatively, Pete Carroll — who is not likely to be coaching for another 10 years — might be more inclined to improve the defense as part of a more short-term mindset to get better asap (even though plenty of D-liners have needed time to reach their best, such as Quinnen Williams).

Who wins that argument if the sides differ? Of course, it’s possible they’ll share similar views. Or maybe they won’t.

For me — a quarterback or a defensive lineman is justifiable. Some of the arguments made by fans essentially saying a QB shouldn’t even be considered with the top pick, however, are absolutely baffling. It should be on the table and almost certainly will be within the walls of the VMAC.

Ultimately though my best guess is C.J. Stroud and Will Levis (in either order) will be the top-two picks. That is what I would suggest at this very, very early stage. If that happens, it might make it more likely the Seahawks take a defensive lineman first.

Seattle’s second pick in ‘The 33rd Team’ mock draft I am less keen on.

They have the Seahawks picking Clemson linebacker Trenton Simpson. I have watched every Clemson game from 2022, focusing solely on the defensive snaps. Simpson had a poor season.

He was asked to become a more complete linebacker and it didn’t suit him. In 2021 he was a blitzing attack dog — used almost exclusively to sprint into the backfield as an extra rusher. He had 6.5 sacks and 12.5 TFL’s and was able to flash his quickness and aggression in a role that wasn’t particularly taxing and just allowed him to make plays.

In a more conventional linebacker role, he often disappeared in games. His numbers dropped to a measly 2.5 sacks and only four TFL’s. Clemson’s run defense wasn’t very good and they were embarrassed against Notre Dame. Run defense is the least of Simpson’s worries though. Despite his athleticism he struggles in coverage (62.7 PFF grade) and he’s not a particularly sure tackler. He’s just didn’t have much impact and didn’t make many plays.

He’s more of an athlete than consistent performer. His overall PFF grade in 2022 was only a 68.3 — good for 326th best in college football. That’s not what you expect from a top-20 pick.

He’s going to perform very well at the combine. Reports suggest he can jump a 35 inch vertical and a 10-2 broad. It’s believed he can run in the 4.3’s or 4.4’s.

Simpson does have the kind of athleticism Seattle likes but I have a hard time thinking he’s a player they can plug in and expect to succeed. He’s an athletic project whose performance doesn’t warrant a first round grade. He should be a day-two pick you bring in to work with and develop. Again — he’s a good athlete with a ton of upside but he’s a mile off someone who can impact the NFL.

Jamin Davis faced similar issues. He tested brilliantly at a similar size to Simpson — running a 4.48 and jumping a 40 inch vertical and an 11-0 broad. He’s never become more than a good athlete. This year he has a 62.1 PFF grade. Last year he was a 46.8. A lot of people in Washington already want to replace him — only two years after he was taken #19 overall (ironically where Simpson is projected to Seattle in this mock).

I do think, however, this is the benefit of having two firsts and two second round picks. You are still able to spend premium stock on your defense, even after adding a quarterback. If you don’t take a QB with that top pick — good luck finding one worth taking later on.

Anthony Richardson is going to go a lot earlier than people think. Hendon Hooker has a knee injury, he turns 25 this month and benefitted greatly from the scheme in Tenneesee. Max Duggan? Dorian Thompson-Robinson? Stetson Bennett? Not exactly sure bets to become starting QB’s. That’s about it.

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The truth about Jalen Carter & Will Anderson

I’ve seen people compare Jalen Carter to Aaron Donald and Will Anderson to Nick Bosa. I’ve seen people refer to them as ‘sure things’ and ‘safe picks’ — a no-brainer that the Seahawks should draft one of them if possible.

I don’t think any of these points are accurate.

So what is the reality?

Let’s start with Carter.

Anyone who studied Georgia in the second half of the 2022 season will have been impressed with his play. He did, legitimately, impact games. At times he was unblockable.

He wins so many reps with a first-step quickness that catches blockers off guard — then when he gains that initial advantage, he turns on the power and can drive through contact to push the pocket or burst into the backfield. His ability to convert speed to power — quickness into violence — is his greatest quality. He’s not a twitchy dynamo who slips blocks and is just too fast and sharp like Aaron Donald. He’s more of a bull-in-a-china-shop defensive tackle who shocks you with get-off and then is just too strong and disruptive to slow down.

There’s a reason why people have been projecting him as a potential #1 overall pick. Talent-wise, it’s a fair suggestion. Watching his 2022 tape late in the season, you could well imagine the Texans taking him at #1. He has excellent talent and potential and he could, eventually, turn into a very disruptive interior lineman — potentially in the Jeffery Simmons mould. Like Simmons it might take a couple of years of fine-tuning and development for Carter to reach peak performance (although Simmons was recovering from a knee injury during his rookie season).

There are some things that need to be acknowledged, however.

Production isn’t everything but it is true that Carter’s is limited. He only has six sacks in three seasons at Georgia and 18.5 TFL’s.

Let’s compare that to other highly drafted defensive tackles over the last few years:

Ndamukong Suh — 49.5 TFL’s, 24 sacks
Gerald McCoy — 33 TFL’s, 14.5 sacks
Aaron Donald — 66 TFL’s, 29.5 sacks
Marcell Dareus — 20 TFL’s, 11 sacks (in two seasons)
Fletcher Cox — 24.5 TFL’s, 7.5 sacks
Solomon Thomas — 24.5 TFL’s, 12 sacks (in two seasons)
Quinnen Williams — 26 TFL’s, 10 sacks (in two seasons)
Ed Oliver — 53 TFL’s, 13.5 sacks
Derrick Brown — 33 TFL’s, 12.5 sacks
Jeffery Simmons — 33 TFL’s, 7 sacks

It might not mean anything in terms of next level production — but Carter’s numbers don’t compare well to other defensive tackle’s taken very early.

There is a justification for this but it’s both a positive thing for Carter and a negative.

He has been spelled a lot at Georgia, limiting his playing time. He played 40% of the Georgia snaps in 2021. The Bulldogs were able to rotate their studs up front, with Devonte Wyatt (42%) and Jordan Davis (38%) also receiving limited playing time. Both were taken in the first round last year.

In total he received 396 snaps in 2021. He missed three games with an injury this season, meaning he had 308 snaps in 2022.

Thus, he arguably hasn’t been on the field enough to match the gaudy numbers we see from some of the names above. Aaron Donald, for example, was not in a rotation at Pittsburgh.

The negative side to this is — can he actually handle a bigger workload?

He was visibly gassed against Ohio State at the weekend. I also noted this on the blog during the SEC Championship against LSU. In that game he tired very quickly, then had a second wind.

His conditioning looks like a problem. He might come into the league, improve his stamina and this will be a moot point. We should also acknowledge, however, that it might not be as simple as that. Is he going to put the work in to improve his stamina and conditioning? Is he going to be able to handle the attention at the next level, receive those double teams and be able to work through it and stay impactful? Or is he going to be blowing heavily after half-time as we saw against Ohio State?

Is he gassed in games because he isn’t working hard enough to stay in the best shape possible?

It was slightly concerning to see how visibly exhausted he was. Carter was spent in the biggest game of the season in a way you don’t often see.

You don’t draft someone third overall to give them 40% of the snaps per game and worry about their fitness levels. You want them at the heart of your defense, playing a large bulk of snaps. If Carter can’t handle that, it’s a problem. The evidence suggests he is going to need to get some serious fitness work in to play a significant number of snaps.

There’s also this:

ESPN’s Todd McShay says top prospect #Georgia DT Jalen Carter has character issues that could hurt him in the draft while projecting Carter to go to the #Seahawks with the #2 overall pick immediately after.
pic.twitter.com/8BYBypuCeQ

— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 15, 2022

It’s notable that ESPN put out a complimentary article on Carter days before the Playoffs began. I suspect there was some push-back against Todd McShay saying what he did in the clip above and there was an attempt to make amends.

People have tried to argue McShay is a puppet for a team hoping to instigate a draft-day fall for Carter.

It’s a great conspiracy theory but almost certainly not true. For starters, teams don’t base their decision-making on things Todd McShay says on a mock draft segment on ESPN. They’ve been doing their homework on these players for years. They know which players have character concerns long before anyone in the media does. They aren’t sitting at home, watching Mel and Todd duke it out, then adjusting their grades.

If McShay is saying this, the reality is there’s concern within the NFL. It’s possible Carter allays those fears in the coming months. It’s also possible a team will ignore any character flags and take him anyway — believing it’s worth the risk.

However, what McShay said shouldn’t be ignored. He’s simply discussing publicly what is being debated internally.

As we weigh-up Carter as a prospect, a fitting description would be this — he’s an excellent physical talent who has the ability to be extremely disruptive from the interior. In the second half of the 2022 season he had spells where he was virtually unblockable. However, there are reported character concerns. His conditioning must improve. His production is also fairly underwhelming (but as we discussed, there may be reasons for that).

This is not the portrait of a ‘can’t miss’ prospect, destined to come into your team and change a bad defense into a good defense with his mere presence. There are clear risks involved. Anyone describing Carter as a ‘safe’ pick or a ‘sure thing’ has to appreciate that this isn’t the case.

On the conditioning point alone — if he can only play half a game for you, that’s not good enough to go in the top-five. If the character concerns are also legit, it’s a worrying mix.

Teams will be spending a lot of time in the coming months trying to work him out. I suspect he’s a player who could very well be in contention to go first overall. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he lasted a lot longer on the board than people think.

With Will Anderson, he had a fantastic 2021 season that had people wondering if he was one of the best pass rushers to play in college football for a generation. His production was remarkable — 31 TFL’s in a single season and 17.5 sacks.

Unlike Carter, Anderson played with a relentlessness that was exciting. He was aggressive and brutal. I remember wondering a year ago whether he wore #31 as a nod to Kam Chancellor. He carried himself with the same ferocious nature and every snap was played at 100%.

His 2022 season was quite different. We didn’t see the same intensity or production. His TFL numbers dropped from 31 to 17 and he had 10 sacks. These are still decent numbers but they were underwhelming for a player who achieved so much the previous year.

He also had some disappointing performances — including a flag-fest against Texas and he was shut-down by Tennessee’s talented right tackle Darnell Wright.

Gary Danielson at CBS went from describing Anderson in the most glowing terms to saying he was a ‘project’ near the end of the season. Likewise, he was beginning to say on broadcasts that Jalen Carter was a better player and more likely to be the first defender selected in the draft.

Public opinion was shifting and Anderson’s star has fallen slightly.

The truth is he’s still an excellent player but as with Carter there are a couple of question marks.

Alabama lets him get after it. There’s not a great deal of nuance to his role. Anderson puts his head down and plays in constant attack-mode. It’s one of the reasons why his TFL numbers are so high. He has a lot of plays where his only responsibility is to run head-first into the backfield and hit someone. A decent chunk of his TFL’s are unblocked snaps on cute little run attempts by the opponent. Anderson never gives them a chance to deceive him. He’s a missile into the backfield, hammers the runner and claims a TFL. He has many unblocked TFL’s.

He is a forward-moving player. Anderson has a lot of power in his frame and he’s clearly a good athlete. He does well to juke around blocks and once he finds an opening he’s adept at exploding to the quarterback or ball carrier.

He’s not just a space player though and that’s important to note. There’s clear evidence on tape of him stringing out run plays using good contain and he can engage a blocker on the move, stack and shed to make a tackle.

I do think, however, that the scheme he plays in is important.

When I see people comparing him to Nick Bosa — the reality is they are nothing like each other. Bosa is 266lbs — 23lbs heavier than Anderson. Joey Bosa was 269lbs at his combine and Myles Garrett was 272lbs.

Those three players are tailor-made to play the edge in a four-man front but they’re athletic enough to pretty much do anything.

At 243lbs, Anderson is not built to be a classic defensive end. He is built to be a 3-4 outside linebacker who needs to play in the same attack-mode role that Alabama created for him.

Typically a 3-4 OLB will need to drop and cover. Anderson isn’t very good here. His PFF grade in coverage in 2022 is a 56.5. You need to create a situation where he’s in space, flying to the ball, with a mission to disrupt, harass and hit.

There are plenty of players who excel in this role who are better comparisons for Anderson than the Bosa’s or Garrett. I think people are saying ‘Nick Bosa’ because he happens to be the best defender in the NFL this season and everyone wants that in Seattle. I don’t think people realise how difficult it is to find a player like that. It’s as rare as finding a franchise quarterback, perhaps even harder to find.

There are better comparisons out there that still shine a positive light on Anderson.

Khalil Mack has featured strongly in the 3-4 system as an outside rusher and is a much better ‘optimistic comparison’ than Bosa.

Mack, like Anderson, has a slightly unorthodox frame. He was 6-2 1/2 in height and 251lbs at the combine. He only has 33 1/4 inch arms. He’s stocky and lacks brilliant size and length — but he was so quick and powerful and played for attack-minded defensive coordinators like Vic Fangio.

Anderson might turn up at the combine, down a couple of jugs of water and weigh-in at a similar weight. He’s listed at 6-4 and it won’t be a surprise if he has similar arm length to Mack.

This to me feels like the best comp. Granted, Mack ran a blistering 1.53 10-yard split, jumped a 40-inch vertical and ran a 4.18 short shuttle. That will take some matching. However, if Anderson can prove he also has great burst, explosive traits and agility — there’s no reason to believe he can’t become similarly effective at the next level in the right scheme.

There’s no doubt in my mind though that Mack is the player fans should be hoping Anderson can become. Unless he can put on 25lbs of weight, not lose any speed or agility and learn a new role to become a more complete player — he’s never going to be a Bosa.

Some thoughts on the quarterback situation

After publishing an article last week pleading with Seahawks fans to remain open-minded about drafting a quarterback early, I was surprised to discover the extent to which people are already ruling out the idea completely.

On Twitter I received replies like:

— They can’t draft a quarterback early, look at the time they drafted Rick Mirer and Dan McGwire!

— Geno Smith isn’t the problem it’s the defense!

— They don’t need a quarterback! Geno Smith can be the quarterback for the next five years!

— This quarterback class sucks!

— Drafting a quarterback early is too risky! Go with the safe pick of a defensive lineman!

Today I wanted to write down some reasons why it’s wrong to write-off drafting a QB this early in the process, before the NFL regular season has even ended.

1. Geno Smith is a free agent in the off-season and might not return. I think he will be back but it’s not a foregone conclusion. If he signs somewhere else, quarterback suddenly becomes a critical need.

2. The cost to keep Geno Smith has to be considered. One of the benefits of the Russell Wilson trade was the financial saving. It’s been very enjoyable watching Smith perform above expectations on a $7m contract this season. If/when he’s being paid a similar contract to Wilson’s in Seattle in the $30-35m a year range — expectation changes and so can performance. You have to set a limit on how much you’re prepared to pay and that could create issues. Remember — Seattle only has $29.6m in effective cap space in 2023 and only 33 contracted players for next season currently.

3. Geno Smith is 33 in October. It’s not unrealistic that, physically, he will begin to regress as he approaches his mid-30’s. Very few players play deep into their 30’s and when the physical turn happens, it can be dramatic. Preparing for the long-term future is not a bad idea, while also retaining Smith to create a handover situation. The best example of this is the Kansas City Chiefs. They had Alex Smith and drafted Patrick Mahomes, who sat out his rookie season. The Chiefs then dealt Smith to Washington for Kendall Fuller and a third round pick. This could be an ideal situation — allowing Geno Smith to win games in the present, taking away the pressure for a rookie to start immediately and allowing for some proper development time for that player.

4. The Denver pick is a gift. Nobody expected it to be a top-five pick at the start of the season and it could still be as high as #2 overall depending on results next week. If we view this as a rare, unique opportunity — drafting a quarterback should be on the table for consideration. If the Seahawks see a QB they really like, this could set the franchise up for the next 10-15 years. Arguably, there’s no bigger priority in football. You don’t want to do what the 49ers did in 2017 — take Solomon Thomas at #3, not even consider drafting Patrick Mahomes and then live with regret for the rest of Mahomes’ career.

5. I have watched every game C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young have ever played. Before the 2022 draft, I made sure I’d watched every game played in 2020 and 2021 by Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral. The upcoming 2023 quarterback class is a good class. It’s far better than last years crop. I didn’t give a single quarterback a grade beyond the third round a year ago and was validated in doing so. This year, I think we might see four quarterbacks go in the top-10. There is legit talent, potential and star quality within the quarterbacks who will go early in 2023. We shouldn’t dismiss this group.

6. Seattle has two first round picks, two second round picks and a third round pick. That’s ample stock to address the defense even if you take a quarterback with your first pick.

I’m not saying the Seahawks should definitely take a quarterback. I’m saying that QB or D-line makes sense and both should be considered.

Some quick thoughts on where the top quarterbacks will go

I still think there’s a distinct possibility Will Levis will be the first player drafted. A quick reminder — he didn’t benefit from a wide-open spread offense in college. He played in a pro-style offense, behind a horrendous offensive line — leading Kentucky in the loaded SEC (a thankless task).

Look at the sacks-per-game numbers for the top QB’s in college football in 2022:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

Let’s just make this especially clear. Michael Penix Jr was sacked seven times. Will Levis was sacked 42 times.

If you insert C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Drake Maye or anyone else into that situation in Kentucky — they would struggle.

That’s not to entirely excuse the mistakes Levis made (which we’ve discussed at great length). There are technical issues with the way he leans back on certain throws and he loses accuracy. He had too many red-zone interceptions. There are areas to work on.

That said, he has literally everything the NFL teams are looking for in a quarterback. He has a great arm, superb athleticism, an ideal frame and leadership qualities. There’s a reason people like Jim Nagy are making comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.

C.J. Stroud made his case to be the first quarterback drafted against Georgia’s brilliant defense with a sensational performance at the weekend. Stroud has always been a player capable of throwing with beautiful touch and accuracy to all areas of the field. He has great size and he’s a good athlete with exemplary character. The issue with Stroud has always been his apparent inability to play off script or outside of the constraints of the Ohio State offense — which holds your hand constantly and produces 5-star talents at receiver, running back and the offensive line.

Against Georgia, Stroud showed he can play off-script. He manipulated the pocket wonderfully to extend plays. On the move he escaped pressure, kept his eyes downfield and made things happen. He was creative yet in control and it complemented everything else he does well in terms of touch passing and accuracy.

Watching that performance makes you dream about what he can become with a bit of time and development. A year ago, teams were blown away by a throwing performance at the Ohio State pro-day. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being the #1 pick. He has a shot to be really good.

A couple of people suggested to me that his showing against Georgia was no different than Justin Fields excelling against Clemson in the playoffs a couple of years ago (a game that didn’t positively impact Fields’ stock). It’s worth noting that Fields’ issues were horrible technique and some attitude concerns. There are no such concerns with Stroud who might not be the same level of athlete as Fields but he’s a far more polished passer of a football.

Bryce Young is an excellent football player but a cautionary reminder that he is about 5-10 and 185-190lbs. Don’t be surprised if he lasts on the board longer than people are suggesting. Particularly in a year where the shorter quarterbacks (Tagovailoa, Wilson, Murray) have all had injury and performance issues. Young is naturally gifted and a great leader but there isn’t anyone in the sport at his position at his size.

Finally — watch Anthony Richardson’s stock rise as the process goes along. There aren’t many humans capable of doing what he can do. Yes he needs time and development but he also carries superstar potential and isn’t as ‘raw’ as some people are making out. There are plenty of plays on tape where he makes reads and adjustments, goes through his progressions and plays within structure. There are also plays where he makes magic happen as a runner or passer. Yes he has too many inaccurate throws (high or behind) but I think that will be solved with more playing time and experience.

It took Josh Allen two years to work things out and now he’s one of the best players in the NFL. Richardson might experience a similar period of development and then a similar rise.

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen.

I will be hosting national radio coverage on BBC Radio Five Live Extra in the UK of the Jets vs  Seahawks. It is available online here. After the game tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel.

If you missed my thoughts on the CFB playoffs yesterday, click here.

And Happy New Year!

The Seahawks are playing a mirror image of themselves on Sunday in a lot of ways.

Both teams stand at 7-8 with their playoff lives on the line.  They both shocked the league by starting out 6-3 but have since badly regressed by dropping five of their last six and are stumbling to the finish line.  There is a reasonable argument to be made that both would be better off missing the playoffs and drafting in the top 10-12 picks next year rather than in the early 20’s.

They both feature a top-10 unit on one side of the ball (Seahawks offense and Jets defense) and a bottom-10 unit (vice versa) on the other side that has weighed them down like a millstone around their neck.

So the matchup will be very intriguing.  Strength against strength and weakness against weakness.

What can the Seahawks do to win this game?

Watch how much these teams mirror each other…

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

Robert Saleh has created a defense in New York rooted in some very similar principles to what he helped employ when on the staff in Seattle for Super Bowl 48.

They might be the best team in the NFL at getting pressure with only their front four players.

Evidence:  They are dead last in the NFL in blitzing rate, sending an extra rusher on a measly 14.7% of plays.  But they are ninth in the league in sacks and eighth in pressures — generating pressure on the quarterback 23.3% of the time.

That is impressive.  They are occupying five linemen with four rushers and ‘gaining’ an extra defender on the bulk of their plays.  They utilize that defender roaming around that second level, waiting to plaster any receiver who dares run a crossing or a slant route.

Add to that they have two very good corners in Sauce Gardner and old friend D.J. Reed. Moving the ball makes for some tough sledding at times.  They are fourth in the NFL in scoring defense and fifth in passing defense.

What do the Seahawks need to employ to win the field position game and get points on this defense?

Commit to Running the Ball

The Jets are eleventh in the NFL in rushing defense.  That is very good but the teams that had success against those early Seahawks teams ran the ball and did not stray from the formula.  They had an absolute commitment to getting the tough yards on the ground and staying balanced.

It will not be easy.  The offensive line needs to find ways to open up some room for Ken Walker and Walker needs to display the commitment he showed last Saturday against the Chiefs in the second half.

In reviewing tape of the Jet defense, I see that they consistently have good downs but are vulnerable to the explosive run.  At times, the offensive line can handle the down linemen four on four and that frees up a tackle or guard to pull and lead the runner through the hole and take on that pursuing linebacker or safety.  Their aggressive nature can open some nice lanes for runners if you are patient enough.

The Seahawks need to load the line of scrimmage with muscle.  That may mean using the tight ends in a more inline formation.  Of course, their best blocking tight end, Will Dissly, is out for this game.  So, they will need to come up with some creative solutions.  Noah Fant needs to step up.  Perhaps they bring Stone Forsythe in on a jumbo package and force the Jets to bring more players down into the box.

How does this help, besides the obvious physicality of the game?  It puts the Jets in more of a big package and limits their speed and downhill ability on defense.

If they can keep balance, it will help Geno Smith tremendously.  It will keep the later downs manageable and pay dividends later in the game.

Having the tight ends loaded on the field also has other uses…

Use the Tight Ends Liberally in the Passing Game

The Jets are in the bottom-ten of teams in the league in defending tight ends.  Only five teams have had more tight ends targets and completions on defense and only seven have allowed more yards in the passing game to tight ends.

C.J. Mosely, Quincy Williams, Kwon Alexander and Lamarcus Joiner are all less effective when in coverage than when they are playing to tackle runners.  Williams is allowing an 85.7% completion rate when targeted.

Using the tight ends a lot helps with the pass rush.  Geno Smith can make quick decisions and get the ball out of his hands.  If the Seahawks have an up-tempo short passing game that is effective, it can help the offensive linemen keep the game in hand.

Take What the Defense Gives You

This was a critical part of moving the ball on the old Seahawks.  Their defense was so good, teams ran into a wall when they insisted on implementing their style of play on offense.

Teams that were precise, deliberate and took their time nearly always had success against the Seahawks.  The defense was designed specifically to not allow explosive plays and deep shots and for the most part it worked.  The tradeoff was allowing all kinds of underneath passes and short 3 or 4-yard chunk runs.  

It was a gamble that teams could not consistently move the ball enough on consecutive downs.  A penalty, a dropped pass, a tackle for loss would inevitably occur and put the team behind the sticks, which allowed the pass rush to pin their ears back and go after the quarterback.

The Jets employ a very similar tactic.  You can move on them if you are patient.  If you have a quarterback who scans the field quickly and makes good decisions.  That includes taking the six yards of open field right in front of you when no passing options are available.

It also means not shying away from using your weapons…

Take Your Shot When It is Available

Successful teams did not live in fear of the Seahawks defense, they just had immense respect for it.  They knew that if they successfully established their patterns above on offense, that opportunities to strike would present themselves when timed properly.  The Seahawks need to effectively pick their spots on Sunday against this defense.

Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed are good cornerbacks but they have not faced a duo like Lockett and Metcalf yet.  

If the offense can get some rhythm, some quick passes and effective inside runs, the defensive front will be slightly more malleable to being controlled and kept in check when they take a shot on this defense.

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All of these are long-winded ways of saying they need to find a way to not let Quinnen Williams take over this game.  Once again, the interior of the offensive line will have their hands full with one of the game’s best defensive tackles.

What makes him so good?  He can affect the offense from the 3-tech, 5-tech or nose tackle spots.  He can take on double teams regularly.  He has speed, strength and quickness.

Maybe his secret technique of simultaneously blessing and thanking himself is paying off.

The Seahawks offense versus the Jets defense will be the more intriguing matchup.  

When the other units are on the field, that’s where it gets ugly.

When the Jets Have the Ball

This is a matchup of units that are slumming it.

The Jets are 25^th in the NFL in scoring offense and the Seahawks defense is 29^th.

Their rushing offense is 24^th and the Seahawks are 31^st.

It is not pretty.  

Who can put a better game plan together?  Who will make the least number of mistakes?  That may be the deciding factor in winning this matchup.

Keep the Run Game from Giving the Offense Balance

The Jets might have the worst run game in the NFL.

Breece Hall is on the Injured Reserve list and has been for the last two months.  Yet incredibly, he is still the Jets’ leading rusher.  Everyone else in the running back room is averaging 3.77 yards per carry.

Zonovan Knight has been their main ball carrier of late.  He is at 3.9 yards per carry, mostly off the back of an ‘8-10 runs of no or minimal gain followed by an explosive run’ pattern of play.  It is not fatal when he’s explosive if it is mixed around several plays of the other variety.

They do like to utilize Elijah Moore on jet sweeps and other creative plays out of the backfield, so the edges of the defense will need to be aware and attack those opportunities.

The Seahawks stopped their bad stretch of games with over 200 yards of rushing allowed in the loss to Kansas City on Saturday.  They hailed it as big progress for the defense.

A similar performance by the defense on Sunday would be another step in the right direction.  This should be low-hanging fruit.  The Jets are toothless in the run game and their strategy offensively is to just keep running the ball at the defense and hope the runner breaks one eventually.

It is critical that they stop the run though.  When the Jets get 100 yards rushing, they are 5-2.  When they do not, they are 2-6.

Why?  The running game takes the pressure off their awful quarterback play and gives the defense rest.  Mike White works best when he only has about 25-30 throws per game.

Which brings us too…

Do Not Let Mike White be Effective

White is making a name for himself as the preferred option at quarterback over top pick Zach Wilson.  He is crisp with his play, decisive and has a good arm.  He has also been able to develop some chemistry with their other first-round pick, Garrett Wilson.

His game is quick, accurate throws with some deeper throws mixed in.  He can get the ball out of his hands and avoid the pass rush on the bulk of his plays.

To illustrate:  in nine games, Zach Wilson has a pressure rate of 26.60% with 2.5 seconds of time in the pocket.  Only Taylor Heinicke and Russell Wilson have worse rates as starters.

White, with the same offensive line, in three games has a pressure rate of only 12.60% with 2.3 seconds of time in the pocket.  He produces stats like Tom Brady (although to be fair in only three games).  He is not the star of the game, he lets the receivers be that and his offensive line has far less work to do.  His highlights are impressive.  Snap, three steps, and throw.  He has the routine down and he keeps the offense on schedule.

Disruption of his rhythm is paramount.  The corners must be sharp.  The linemen must be ready to get their hands up and deflect some of those passes.

If the Jets can run the ball at an even average level, this opens the way for Wilson to be crisp with his passes.  If they can do both of those things effectively, White all of the sudden gets more dangerous as a passer.

According to the Jets’ team reporter — in his last three starts, White led the league with 552 passing yards on passes of 10+ air yards and had a 108.2 passer rating on such attempts.

The Jets try to soften you up in the run game and put you to sleep with quick short passes in the passing game, then hit you with some shots downfield.

The defense can save themselves an awful lot of trouble if they can just handle the foundational basics of stopping the run and disrupting some of the simpler passes.