Vernon Butler is the second most explosive D-liner in the draft
One of our community members Cysco (could it be?) came up with a way to enhance TEF and offer a new dimension to the formula.
At the moment it doesn’t account for weight/size. I think that’s fine because it’s a combination of tallied explosive skills and being ‘bigger’ doesn’t necessarily matter. Aaron Donald is only 285lbs but wins with explosion and speed, not size.
Even so, TEF doesn’t really account for the players who are enormous (eg Germain Ifedi) and test well for their size. Cysco’s idea is a bit of an equaliser in that regard.
His suggestion was to multiply a player’s weight with his TEF score — and then multiply the results by 0.1. This creates a score in the 75-110 range. For example:
Germain Ifedi — 324 x 2.97 x 0.1 = 96.1
Ifedi’s TEF score of 2.97 didn’t emphasise how well he’d performed as a 324lbs athlete. A 32.5 inch vertical was the second highest among O-liners, a 9-1 broad jump was excellent and he had 24 reps on the bench press. He didn’t hit the ideal 3.00 purely due to his bench reps. That seemed a little bit harsh given he has 36 inch arms — making the test a lot trickier.
Ifedi’s TEF score put him at #8 in the O-line class. His weighted TEF puts him at #3. That felt like a better representation of what he achieved.
Here’s the full list of O-liners using weighted TEF:
Spriggs, Jason — 104.9
McGovern, Conner — 101.4
Ifedi, Germain — 96.1
Shell, Brandon — 94.4
Vaitai, Halapoulivaati — 93.8
Nembot, Stephane — 93.6
Dahl, Joe — 93.2
Joe Haeg — 93.0
Thuney, Joe — 91.6
Robertson, Dominique — 91.5
Redmond, Alex — 91.1
Lewis, Alex — 89.6
Garnett, Joshua — 87.9
Drango, Spencer — 87.4
Kelly, Ryan — 87.0
Conklin, Jack — 85.0
Clark, Le’Raven — 84.1
Westerman, Christian — 83.8
Johnstone, Tyler — 83.2
Brendel, Jake — 80.9
Skura, Matt — 80.6
Glasgow, Graham — 79.9
Martin, Nick — 79.7
Greene, Darrell — 79.5
Blythe, Austin — 79.5
Beavers, Willie — 78.8
Alexander, Vadal — 77.6
Boehm, Evan — 77.6
Theus, John — 77.4
Decker, Taylor — 77.3
Toner, Cole — 77.1
Turner, Landon — 74.7
Marz, Tyler — 74.6
Seumalo, Isaac — 74.6
Young, Avery — 74.5
Whitehair, Cody — 74.4
Allen, Jack — 74.2
Hawkins, Jerald — 73.3
Kasitati, Nila — 73.0
Jackson, Dominick — 72.1
Cooper, Fahn — 71.3
Slater, Pearce — 70.3
Kirkland, Denver — 70.0
Tretola, Sebastian — 67.6
Average score: 82.1
Here’s how Seattle’s previous O-line picks tested (since 2012):
Poole, Terry — 94.3
Glowinski, Mark — 101.1
Sokoli, Kristjan — 107.6
Britt, Justin — 97.5
Scott, Garrett — 98.7
Gilliam, Garry — 91.1
Seymour, Ryan — 93.1
Smith, Jared — 99.4
Average score: 97.9
I don’t expect the Seahawks to use a system as simple as TEF — but I suspect they’re using something similar albeit more sophisticated. We know what their ideal is per Tom Cable (31 inch vert, 9″ broad, 27 bench reps). They might have a formula that also accounts for size and length.
Sadly weighted TEF doesn’t provide a basic ‘ideal’. Original TEF provides that with 3.00. If you perform a 31 — 9 — 27 you score a 1.00 in each test. TEF offers a cumulative score which is helpful and accounts for slightly higher or lower marks in each individual drill.
It’s harder to judge weighted TEF in the same way. What is a benchmark score? 90.0? 100.0? We can’t really answer that unless you want to use Seattle’s 97.9 average. However — it does give a bit of a boost to the bigger guys who complete an explosive test. And for that reason it gives us a nice insight into why they seemingly covet Ifedi considering he’s third only to Spriggs and McGovern — the two athletic freaks in this O-line class.
Players like Ryan Kelly (87.0) and Joshua Garnett (87.9) — both often linked to the Seahawks — don’t test comparatively well compared to Seattle’s previous picks. That doesn’t mean they won’t be drafted early by the team but the evidence suggests they’re less likely to be targeted than perhaps a Connor McGovern (for example).
I know some people dislike that assertion — but that’s just what the formula tells us. This tool is just a way to project what the Seahawks might do in the draft. Again — it’s not projecting who will succeed/fail at the next level and it’s not judging who is a good/bad player.
What about defense?
We can’t use TEF/weighted TEF as a projection tool for defensive linemen because we don’t have the necessary information. We don’t know Seattle’s ideal physical profile. We also don’t have enough draft history (one recent third and one fourth rounder at DT) to pick up on any trends.
We can, however, use it to compare the different prospects. It’s still a formula that ranks the D-liners against each other. It can tell us how much more explosive Sheldon Rankins is versus the rest of the class. So here are the results:
Rankins, Sheldon — 103.3
Butler, Vernon — 101.1
Nkemdiche, Robert — 100.1
Hargrave, Javon — 99.3
Billings, Andrew — 98.9
Lowry, Dean — 98.7
Mayes, Chris — 97.1
Oakman, Shawn — 96.5
Blair, Ronald — 93.7
Henry, Willie — 93.2
Wujciak, Connor — 93.1
Heath, Joel — 93.0
Ridgeway, Hassan — 92.9
Reader, D.J. — 92.6
Ioannidis, Matthew — 92.3
Thomas, Lawrence — 90.5
Collins, Maliek — 90.4
Ogbah, Emmanuel — 89.9
Judon, Matt — 89.9
Tapper, Charles — 89.1
Clark, Kenny — 89.0
Bullard, Jonathan — 89.0
Buckner, DeForest — 88.7
Bosa, Joey — 88.6
Okwara, Romeo — 87.1
Spence, Noah — 86.9
Valentine, Vincent — 86.3
Ngakoue, Yannick — 85.2
Fanaika, Jason — 85.2
Kaufusi, Bronson — 84.9
Zettel, Anthony — 84.5
Jones, Chris — 83.7
Newberry, Giorgio — 82.2
Abdesmad, Mehdi — 81.7
Kamalu, Ufomba — 80.1
Calhoun, Shilique — 80.0
Cowser, James — 80.0
Robinson, A’Shawn — 79.8
Bailey, Sterling — 79.6
Johnson, Austin — 79.6
Nassib, Carl — 79.6
Jackson, Branden — 79.2
Dodd, Kevin — 79.1
Latham, Darius — 78.7
Ward, Jihad — 78.2
Day, Sheldon — 75.8
Washington, Adolphus — 72.8
Nicolas, Dadi — 72.4
Sigler, DeVaunte — 72.4
Correa, Kamalei — 69.1
Pettway, D.J. — 67.1
It’s perhaps no surprise that the Seahawks and the rest of the league are showing interest in Vernon Butler. His combination of size/explosiveness is second only to Sheldon Rankins.
We’ve talked a lot about Rankins arguably being Seattle’s ideal pick. Unfortunately he’ll probably be long gone by #26. According to our formula Butler is the next man up.
Equally interesting is the placement of Jonathan Bullard. Although he ran a superior 10-yard split to a lot of the defensive tackles at the combine — his agility testing and explosion testing is in a similar range to a lot of other players. Here he ranks behind the following defensive linemen:
Rankins, Sheldon — 103.3
Butler, Vernon — 101.1
Nkemdiche, Robert — 100.1
Hargrave, Javon — 99.3
Billings, Andrew — 98.9
Lowry, Dean — 98.7
Mayes, Chris — 97.1
Oakman, Shawn — 96.5
Blair, Ronald — 93.7
Henry, Willie — 93.2
Wujciak, Connor — 93.1
Heath, Joel — 93.0
Ridgeway, Hassan — 92.9
Reader, D.J. — 92.6
Ioannidis, Matthew — 92.3
Thomas, Lawrence — 90.5
Collins, Maliek — 90.4
Ogbah, Emmanuel — 89.9
Judon, Matt — 89.9
Tapper, Charles — 89.1
Clark, Kenny — 89.0
Bullard, Jonathan — 89.0
Bullard is a fun player to watch — he plays with his hair on fire. He doesn’t miss tackles and his gap discipline is solid. Yet as an athletic specimen he is not ‘special’ — and that is consistently something the Seahawks have sought in the early rounds of the draft.
We can project, with this information, that Willie Henry, Ronald Blair III, Hassan Ridgeway and Maliek Collins would provide a similar physical profile — but they might be available in round two. So how do you weigh up the value of Bullard at #26 versus the others at #56?
In terms of grit and personality — Bullard might be a difference maker in that regard. He might be the #1 character prospect in the entire draft. Yet the Seahawks have to decide the value of attitude vs physicality and how it dictates what they do early.
If the Seahawks can’t get at the top explosive linemen (Rankins, Butler, Ifedi, Spriggs) or if they don’t like a particular fit (that might be the case with Spriggs, for example) — that could be the catalyst for a move down the board where they can select from several of the D-liners listed above and O-liners like Connor McGovern, Joe Haeg and Joe Dahl.
La Canfora’s draft notes
When it comes to insider info — Jason La Canfora is a respected voice. Last year he called the Marshawn Lynch contract extension and Seattle’s desire to pick Frank Clark. He had some interesting things to say today on the draft, including:
— Jared Goff is Cleveland’s preferred quarterback at #2
— A’Shawn Robinson is seen as overrated (we’ve known this for a long time)
— Jack Conklin is seen by some as the #2 offensive tackle in the class
— La Canfora expects Josh Doctson to be the first receiver drafted
— Expect the Eagles to draft Ezekiel Elliott
— The Steelers like the cornerback group and Kendall Fuller could go in round one
The thing that caught my eye though was La Canfora’s notes on Vernon Butler:
Teams are very high on Louisiana Tech defensive linemen Vernon Butler, and I expect him to go in the first round and pretty high at that. The Chiefs are among the teams I have heard him linked to. Scouts love his versatility and ability to pair run stuffing ability with some natural pass rushing moves.
There’s a slight contradiction here because on the one hand Butler is being projected to go “pretty high” in the first round — but the team mentioned (Kansas City) doesn’t pick until #28.
Butler has been an interesting guy to follow during this draft season. At the end of the college season he was getting a lot of buzz from media ‘insiders’ like Daniel Jeremiah. That seemed to dip after an average combine — but an excellent pro-day has put him back on the radar.
Just look at the results above in weighted TEF.
I’m not convinced he’ll be Muhammad Wilkerson as some are projecting he might be. Wilkerson has freaky speed and quickness for 315lbs — his closing speed and finishing ability is unlike anything you’ll ever see from a big man like that. He ran a 4.59 short shuttle and a 7.31 three cone and it shows.
Butler is bigger at 323lbs and lacks that same kind of quickness. He ran a 7.82 three cone and a 4.76 short shuttle. He produced a more explosive vertical and broad jump though and the 10-yard splits are similar (1.77 vs 1.80).
One thing we didn’t talk about yesterday is Butler’s personality. He’s a pretty cool guy. Laid back but in a good way, confident. Well spoken. Teams will like that about him.
He can also play some end in base and move inside. He’s versatile. The big question mark is on the pass rushing side of his game. Will he ever develop into a true disruptor? He doesn’t have to be a 10-12 sack guy like Wilkerson — but can he at least consistently provide 5-7?
The way his stock is going he might not be available at #26. Washington in particular might show some interest at #21. If the Seahawks are limiting themselves to ‘ideally’ explosive offensive linemen as we suspect — they might not like the options at #26 compared to the options in rounds 2-3 (McGovern, Dahl, Haeg). That could increase the chances of Butler being their choice in round one — if he lasts that long.
