Hi all — the BBC has re-acquired radio rights to the NFL and tonight I am co-hosting for Cowboys vs Chiefs. I will have half an eye on the Seahawks but will need to watch the game in full to pass comment sufficiently. I will do that when I get home.
Feel free to use this as an open thread.
Carson Strong has had a very consistent three-year career at Nevada
Earlier this week I compiled notes on all of the ‘big name’ quarterbacks eligible for the 2022 draft. It was an exercise to highlight the dearth of alternatives as a means of push back to the growing number of fans entertaining the idea of trading Russell Wilson.
In many cases these fans are attracted to the idea of a cheap quarterback on a rookie contract. Often, however, they haven’t spent any time looking at who or what is available in college football.
If you trade Wilson for three first round picks — those picks have to become good players to justify the move. The pressure is increased by the fact Seattle doesn’t even possess its own 2022 first rounder (which could be a top-10 selection).
Using one of the Wilson picks on a quarterback who isn’t good enough would be the ultimate ‘insult to injury’ scenario. Especially when the aim of drafting a quarterback is to acquire someone of Wilson’s talent, avoiding the treadmill that so many teams end up on — constantly looking for someone remotely qualified to lead a team.
I went back over the last 48 hours to further study Nevada’s Carson Strong. People I have a lot of time for, such as Tony Pauline and Lance Zierlein, rate him highly. I’ve been sceptical.
Of all the 2022 QB’s he was the one I wanted to extend my study on.
I’ve now watched seven games, instead of three, to fill out my thoughts on Strong.
I was right about some things, wrong on some others.
Let’s start with the pro’s.
Strong is a superb anticipation thrower to the sideline. His speed-outs are nearly always thrown with timing and velocity.
Throws from the left hash to the right sideline are like extended handoffs. It’s that automatic.
On any short-range route to the outside, he’ll often throw before the receiver turns to the ball. There’s no wasted time or movement with his technique. If the play-call requires a quick-out, he will snap, turn and throw on the money. His arm strength and ball placement are excellent and it’s a way to get easy yards.
This shouldn’t be underestimated. These throws are not as easy as they look. Wilson himself hasn’t been great at these over his career and a lot of younger quarterbacks take too long to get the ball out, they hesitate to tip-off defensive backs or they don’t have the arm power to just let it rip to the sideline.
This will be a useful tool at the next level to try and contain pressure and push back the blitz. That’s significant for Strong, as we’ll come onto later.
Watching him closely — and seeing one game with all-22 looks — has shown his ability to go through progressions and fit passes into tight windows at an elite college level.
I was stunned, frankly, in some instances to see what he was able to do. There were a couple of games where he went to his first, second, then third read and just uncorked a pass right in the heart of three defenders to a receiver. Yet the strange thing is — despite the impossibly small window — the receiver was the only person capable of completing the catch.
If this makes sense — it was pretty much the safest collection of insanely risky, accurate, driven passes I’ve seen from a college quarterback.
I underestimated his arm strength and these first two positives highlighted that. Furthermore, he isn’t just a reckless ‘big arm for hire’. He is accurate enough to be very intriguing on some of these pinpoint throws.
Technique is important. Being able to square your shoulders to the target, having the right footwork. Your feet and shoulders need to work together and you need that quick, direct release. One of the reasons players like Justin Fields have so many turnovers is purely down to his technical issues. He’s often the best athlete on the field but until he puts the technical aspects together, the sack/fumbles and interceptions will continue.
Strong’s shoulder is often aligned to the target. Once he makes his decision to throw there’s no wasted movement. He has a superb, compact delivery. His whip-like release generates velocity. The ball pops out of his hand and he has a very smooth throwing motion.
He actually does a three step drop well. So many young QB’s in shotgun take 5-7 steps and waste time and get too deep. Strong gets on with the play, knows where he wants to go and his technical qualities (footwork and release) are the best in this class.
Further to this, he can side-step in the pocket to buy a bit of time. It’s subtle but vital. There are instances on tape where he just shuffles to the left or right to buy that extra second — then bang. He makes a completion.
Strong plants his feet and drives on his throws. He doesn’t lift his leg in the air and throw off one foot javelin-style like Malik Willis.
When you give him time in the pocket he makes the prettiest 30-50 yard throws in college football. He had one against Wyoming which was a frozen rope into the tiniest window in good coverage for a 40 yard gain along the left sideline. He shifted to the left of the pocket, set his feet and uncorked. Beautiful throw.
When teams eventually come to evaluate his potential, I think they’ll go to that play a lot as an example of what he’s capable of.
I also like Strong’s interviews and think teams will enjoy meeting with him and will believe in his personality and leadership traits.
Now, let’s get into the con’s.
His mobility and athleticism is a serious issue.
There is zero improv potential and no ability whatsoever to escape pressure to extend plays. He is the definition of a classic, statue-like pocket passer.
Nevada is giving up 2.8 sacks per game in 2021. They’ve given up 28 in 10 games. They’re ranked 100th in college football, level with lowly Arizona and UConn.
(EDIT — he was sacked seven times on Friday night against Air Force, making it 35 sacks in 11 games)
He was also sacked 20 times in nine games in 2020.
This is an incredibly high amount given how well he often gets the ball out quickly — indicating that if you can freeze him in the pocket he will have issues.
As soon as he faces pressure it’s almost always a sack. Any time he’s moved out of the pocket the best case scenario is a throwaway. He cannot throw on the run.
I’m concerned about his ability to even execute boot-legs well. His footwork on the move is plodding and he warrants an F grade for mobility.
Strong’s longest run of the 2021 season is for five yards. Five yards. In the modern NFL you need some modicum of being able to scramble, extend plays and be creative. You don’t have to be Kyler Murray but even Joe Burrow has an ability to extend or break off a few yards for a first down.
Even Matt Ryan looks like a more capable athlete than Strong.
My fear is that as the game quickens up at the next level, will he be able to process quickly in order to operate solely from the pocket?
I think he will need to work with an offensive coordinator who is adept at scheming up targets and he just needs to execute as told. Kyle Shanahan, Josh McDaniels. Those types of schemes. He needs to live in a world where he’s told what his keys are and he just needs to read and throw quickly. He needs to play in a scheme that values pass-catching running backs who can be used as a safety valve. He will need to work a strong screen-game to take the heat out of some of the blitzing.
This is where I want to come back to the speed-outs. If he’s working in a creative system that can put together a lot of quick tempo-passes to keep a defense sitting in coverage, that’s great. You don’t want him clutching the ball. Even his deep shots may need to be decisive, calculated and well schemed with max-protect.
I fear if you try to insert him into any kind of long-developing passing game or allow opponents to play up at the line, you’ll be encouraging trouble. I think teams will blitz the crap out of him and you’re not going to be able to run your way out of this unless you have a dominating O-line from side-to-side.
He’ll need to be paired with a good offensive schemer. As mentioned, I think Shanahan and McDaniels are the types of play-caller that could mask his lack of athleticism.
I can well imagine teams just coming for him with the blitz at the next level and if he doesn’t learn to exploit it quickly, he’ll be a sitting duck. At Nevada — as soon as anyone breaks into the backfield, it’s goodnight Vienna.
Again — his ability to extend plays and get out of the pocket on the move is non-existent.
So while we can (and should) admire his technical ability and arm strength, the thing that will keep him back on many boards is the type of offense you’re going to have to run with him. It’ll need to be one designed for a totally static pocket-passer — at a time when everyone’s looking for mobile quarterbacks who deal with pressure and can get the ball out from all sorts of angles on the move.
Often he had a clean pocket on his best throws for Nevada. There’s little evidence of what he would be like under immense pressure other than the sacks he takes in college. Given his willingness to trust his arm, I would be fearful of what he would try early in his career if he was blitzed a lot. He might develop quickly and get to his hots but so often with young quarterbacks they panic.
Elsewhere, Strong tends to reject open throws to go through his reads — then opts to trust his arm to make a harder throw.
I’ve seen him turn down his first two targets despite both being what you would describe as ‘wide open’ at the NFL level — only to then force things on his third read. To be fair, he completes a lot of those passes. I did get the sense though that he can be put off too easily when the defense is giving you reasonable offers and he only goes for the pass when he knows he’s running out of time.
I’d like to see him be more decisive on his first read. If it’s there, take it. Don’t wait for something to be wide, wide open. I enjoy watching those down-the-seam lasers threaded into the tiniest window but I’d also quite like to see him take what’s there too.
His QBR of 63.6 is only 56th best in CFB this year and he’s thrown seven picks — the most in his three year starting career.
One I thing I noticed is Nevada benefits a lot from unusually poor busted coverages. So while his stats are good — he benefits from things he won’t enjoy as much in the NFL.
The final thing to mention is Strong suffered a serious knee injury in High School and he still wears a chunky brace. I think this is why he generated little in the way of recruiting buzz and was a non-rated prospect. It’s something teams will need to look at during medical checks.
I came away wondering whether Strong was the best quarterback eligible for the 2022 draft after all. Kenny Pickett has far fewer ‘wow’ throws, lacks Strong’s arm strength and hasn’t had the three-year consistency in terms of production. Yet Pickett is much more athletic and capable of being creative.
There are things to like about both players but also big issues that will have teams debating a lot about their pro-potential.
The quarterbacks destined for greatness often standout clearly in college. Anyone who has followed this blog for a while will know how much I/we loved Kyler Murray — long before anyone considered him a pro-prospect. He just had special qualities. It was very easy to highlight example plays that translated and you couldn’t pick holes in his game.
That type of projection is easy to make. With the likes of Pickett and Strong, it’s far more challenging. I think there’s a lot more ‘Drew Lock’ than ‘Kyler Murray’. Lock had a live arm and good mobility and you could make a case for his pro-prospects. Many did — with plenty of mocks placing him in the first fame (as we’re seeing with Pickett and Strong now).
There were also issues with Lock that we’ve seen repeated in Denver. And I sense when the evaluations come in for these two quarterbacks — teams will be suitably mixed that the majority will think day two rather than day one.
It only takes one team to change that and fall in love with a player. But right now I feel comfortable saying Pickett and Strong are the two to watch in this class yet both probably don’t warrant a grade higher than day two.
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Note: This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the latest piece in a weekly series. Curtis looks at the Seahawks and their opponents and discusses key factors…
The Seahawks’ season is on the brink. Talk of ‘the Seahawks could still make the playoffs’ is nearing the end of its legitimacy. At 3-6, facing a tough opponent, they must find a way to put together a win on Sunday.
The chips are down for sure. Questions about the way they are playing and what the future holds hang over this team like a fog. Changes may be inevitable one way or another.
That does not mean it is time to fold on this game. Arizona is looking mighty good so far this season. But let’s not kid ourselves, when division teams play each other, you throw the records out the window and steel yourself for a dogfight.
The Seahawks have too much pride to just give a middling effort. Which is good, because this week’s game is going to take something special from this team to come away with a win.
Defend Kyler Murray
Murray has missed the last two weeks with a sprained ankle and Kliff Kingsbury indicated early this week that Murray has ‘a chance’ to play Sunday. The Seahawks would do well to prepare as if he is playing this week.
Murray has taken a big step forward this season and his impact is being felt by his team, the division and all over the league.
He is leading the NFL in completion percentage by a healthy margin, aided by his receivers, who have the second-fewest dropped passes in the NFL. (Note: the Seahawks have the fewest). Also helping is his accuracy has improved dramatically. Last year he had 88 bad throws that counted for 16.8% of his total passes. This year? He is on pace for only 56 bad throws for 12.3% — a very healthy drop and good for a spot in the Top-5 in the NFL for that category.
He is maturing as a passer and taking it out on defenses across the league.
Is he playing the same style he always has, just at a higher level? No. He has changed his play significantly. He has vastly reined in his rushing attempts in 2021. So far this year he only has 147 rushing yards in eight games. For comparison, he gained more rushing yards in only the first two games last season.
The Cardinals have given him so many weapons for the passing game, and supplemented that with good runners, Murray does not need to run the ball as much to provide the team with offense.
He is still deadly with his feet though. He just uses them differently. Primarily this season, it is to escape the pass rush and buy time for receivers to get open — and he is doing an absolutely incredible job at it.
This year when being blitzed, he has – I cannot believe I am typing this – a 142 QB rating, 27 first down throws, seven touchdowns, only one interception and has only been sacked seven times. For comparison, last season when blitzed, his QB rating was a mere 88, with only five touchdown throws the entire season.
He has mainly done it by turning a weakness into a strength. As recently as last season, his accuracy was poor when on the run. If he had time to reset his feet and throw, and if the receiver was reasonably open, sure, he was fine. But throwing on the run and into a tight window was a wild adventure and could be exploited.
No more. He has improved greatly in this area, to the point where he is now among the top quarterbacks in the league at throwing on the run.
Take a look at this highlight package from the Cardinals’ Week Six game against the Browns:
Cue the video to 0:33. Murray takes off and throws a bullet to Christian Kirk a bit across his body. Look at his mechanics on that throw. They are not great, but it works for him. No coach would show this play to his quarterback to demonstrate proper technique. But it is right on the money and it moves the chains.
Now look at 0:53. Murray glides to the left, does not set his feet but still hits Kirk again in the end zone with zip and accuracy for a brilliant touchdown throw.
At 6:18 he moves out of the pocket and finds Rondale Moore in space for a conversion on third and 9.
How in the world do you defend that kind of athleticism and accuracy? Particularly when you have AJ Green, Zach Ertz, Christian Kirk, Rondale Moore, and DeAndre Hopkins running around in the secondary?
I am going to call back to a quote from last year’s first Watch Points post I did on the Cardinals when talking about Murray: Don’t get rattled by a dazzling play. You’ll get opportunities against him. Stay disciplined and do your job.
He is going to have some really nice plays. Some plays that will even make you shake your head. But you have to keep your head up, maintain your assignments and count on your teammates to do their job.
Is there a way to take the edge off of his play, perhaps at a few key times that can disrupt him and frustrate this brilliant player? There is.
The Seahawks need to employ a delayed blitz / spy role defender against Murray on Sunday.
How can that be an effective weapon against him? Go back to that video and cue those three plays and watch them again. Watch Murray. Is he scrambling because there is pressure right up in his face? No, he is not.
He has developed a habit this year that has yet to be properly exploited. He scrambles to get a better view of the field and buy some time – not simply because he is being chased by a rusher and is an amazing escape artist.
Someone like Jordyn Brooks, Jamal Adams, Ryan Neal or Bobby Wagner would be an ideal weapon to just stay put for half a heartbeat after the snap, see the play develop and where the lanes are open to Murray and then use all your speed to take off into that lane.
At worst, you block his view and clog a passing lane. Maybe even get your hands up and defense a pass. At best, you frustrate him by taking a way a comfortable habit he has developed and make him stay in the pocket more often — containing those incredible feet and making him susceptible to being sacked.
Look at 0:53 on the video again. Ronnie Harrison Jr (#33) is in No Man’s Land at the 14-yard line. He has dropped into a zone but the second Murray took off running to his area he could have attacked and closed quickly enough to effect the throw. But he did not, so all he can do is flail his arms up at Murray in a half-hearted attempt to bat a ball 3 feet above his reach.
One of the major reasons Murray is having so much success against blitzes is this habit he has developed is a great practical way to just get away from pressure that is coming right off the snap. It is a ‘programmed response’ to pass rushers.
What a spy does is it lets Murray make the first move, and commit to where he is going, rather than react to a blitzer coming full steam at him that he can just sidestep with his speed and agility.
Let’s look at a couple examples of this. Cue the video to 7:52. Troy Hill comes on a DB blitz. Murray takes his usual step to escape but senses the trouble and is trapped. He only has one way to move – forward, into the easiest sack Myles Garrett will record this year.
Cue it to 8:08. LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah comes on a delayed blitz on a third down. Does he get the sack? No, but he occupies a lane, and Murray has no choice but to dump it off to avoid the pressure, and they fail to get the first down.
It may be argued that dedicating a man to Kyler Murray is a luxury the defense cannot afford. That is fair considering all the players they have that can catch passes. But stopping the passes at their source is the top priority. It will likely mean being aggressive and taking some chances, and that is not the Seahawks’ strong suit this season. But these are chances worth taking.
A few key stops in this area could short circuit this lightning fast processor and give the Seahawks a chance to wrest control of the game away from him.
Take your shots on this defense
Arizona has done a fine job with their defense this year and it is showing. They are fourth in the NFL in scoring defense, fourth in yards conceded, fourth in passing yards conceded and 19th in rushing yards conceded. All fine marks that contribute to their success.
That does not mean they are unbeatable. In fact, they have been frequently been susceptible to the explosive pass play.
Two weeks ago the Cardinals defense surrendered nine explosive pass plays to Jimmy Garoppolo and the Niners. Last week, the Panthers ran a very conservative short-passing offense for Phillip Walker to run, and yet he still managed to get two explosive pass plays, while the running game chipped in three explosive runs in the win.
The point being — there are opportunities there for the taking. Russell Wilson will have another week of healing and practice reps to get ready, and he has a demonstrated history of being able to burn this Arizona defense.
How about targeting rookie Marco Wilson at corner? He was taken just before Tre Brown in the fourth round this year and has played virtually every snap for the Cardinal defense so far this year. How is he doing?
Not good so far, to put it lightly. Of the top-50 most targeted defenders in the NFL, he has allowed the highest quarterback rating – a ghastly 126.1. He has five touchdown passes conceded (tied for 2nd worst in the NFL) and has four missed tackles.
As Hugh Millen likes to say — they got a pigeon on their side. Light him up.
This is a player the Seahawks should toy with. Have Metcalf run some simple slants on him to get into his head. Then a slant and go route.
He is 5’11”. How about throwing a ball up there and letting Metcalf go get it like he did in the Jacksonville game? That was as good-looking a play as any deep bomb.
We also know that Tyler Lockett has had success against this defense. Last year in two games he had 24 catches for 267 yards, four touchdowns and fifteen first downs.
The history of success against this team is well earned. They need to find that aggression again and not shy away from this challenge.
Of course, Russell Wilson will have to be upright in order to make those throws…
The Offensive Line Must Play Well
The offensive line has been dreadful the last few games. There have been challenges in all areas, from pass protection to run blocking. Even Duane Brown has given up more sacks this year than any of us are accustomed to seeing from his side.
They contributed to Russell Wilson’s rough day in Green Bay:
The Packers shut down the Seahawks downfield passing attack, allowing just 2 completions on 15 attempts over 10+ air yards.
Russell Wilson failed to complete any of his 7 deep passes, his most deep pass attempts without a completion in the NGS era. #SEAvsGB | #GoPackGo pic.twitter.com/Hl3hVjFurQ
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 15, 2021
What is worse, the Packers achieved pressure with four or less rushers, leaving them free to flood coverage behind the line of scrimmage and take away the easy passes:
The Packers were able to get pressure without blitzing, generating 13 pressures and 3 sacks with four-or-fewer pass rushers (37.1% pressure rate).
Russell Wilson vs Non-Blitzes
🔹 15/32, 145 yards, 2 INT (-8.8% CPOE)
🔹 -20.8 pass EPA (six-year low)#SEAvsGB | #GoPackGo— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 15, 2021
J.J. Watt may be out for the season but the Cardinals still have Markus Golden and Chandler Jones as major threats. Those two have as many sacks this year as the entire Seahawk defense combined.
They must be contained. Any talk of jump-starting this team begins with getting Russell Wilson going again. He just cannot function without time to throw.
Time for the boys up front to dig deep and put together a solid performance on Sunday.
They also need to find a way to get some holes for the running backs. The Cardinals have been effectively attacked with inside runs lately, just the kind that Alex Collins likes.
.@Budda03 flips in to the end zone for SIX! 🙌
📺: #SEAvsSF on FOX pic.twitter.com/DdHKJFLxut
— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 3, 2021
A productive running game will surely light the way to success. It will keep the red-hot Cardinals offense off the field and give Russell Wilson his opportunities to survey the field and make plays.
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It’s increasingly clear some Seahawks fans have been itching to get on the ‘trade Russell Wilson’ bandwagon.
They’ve been building up to it for a while — they just needed the green light to put their foot down and race forward.
It felt like a few were hoping Geno Smith would play well and ‘do the things Wilson won’t or can’t’ to validate their opinion — but Smith played poorly. They missed their chance.
Now Wilson’s had a bad game in Green Bay, on the day Aaron Rodgers also had a bad game, in his first outing since having a serious finger injury, with the likelihood that he isn’t remotely close to 100%.
They can’t resist. It’s all coming out.
They’re using any evidence they can find to build a case. The confirming of priors is underway.
Some of these fans are the same people who warned ‘be careful what you wish for’ if you want to move on from Pete Carroll because ‘it could send Seattle back to the dark days of the 80’s’.
Now they’re openly advocating trading the reason Seattle has made the playoffs year after year since the LOB was disbanded. They’re ignoring that Pete Carroll himself recently admitted he wouldn’t have been in Seattle as long as he has without Wilson.
They pitch moving on without feeling obliged to offer any reasonable plan at quarterback moving forward.
‘Just draft a QB’ isn’t an answer. It’d be like me saying we ‘just need a boat’ to cross the Atlantic and producing a bath tub and an oar.
The rest of the fan base should hold their feet to the fire on that topic. These fans seemingly haven’t studied the quarterbacks in college. I’ve even been sent suggestions like trading Wilson for picks and one of Jalen Hurts or Daniel Jones.
Presumably these same fans will be the first to complain when they’re watching the Hurts, Jones or Mitchell Trubisky ‘era’ next season — or watching one of the frankly awful 2022 draft eligible QB’s.
There’s often a refusal to acknowledge that having ‘picks’ might be great right up until the point you have to use them on actual players. It could also be the same people who spent first round picks on Rashaad Penny and LJ Collier and traded the house for Jamal Adams making those selections.
Guarantee Kayvon Thibodeaux, Derek Stingley Jr and the top left tackle in the class — plus present a viable starting quarterback replacement — and we can talk. This is impossible though. You’d need three top-five picks, including the #1 overall pick.
Simply collecting mid-first rounders over one or two drafts and hoping for the best at the most important position in sports? That’s not a coherent position.
You have to actually turn your picks into good players, which has proven challenging for Seattle, to justify any of this. That’s a huge gamble.
Neither is blowing things up and desiring a major rebuild logical. This is the exact scenario some of these same people warned about. Returning to the dark days. Nothing will bring that closer to reality than shedding the roster in the hope of a long rebuild. Ask the Dolphins or Lions how challenging that is.
Go further and speak to Broncos fans about life without a franchise quarterback. Are you ready to run through the cycle of QB’s they’ve gone through over the years? Do you want to join the collection of teams endlessly searching for a signal caller of the caliber Seattle already possesses?
Teddy Bridgewater one year. An expensive trade for Sam Darnold the next. Needing to consider giving up everything for Deshaun Watson.
The Panthers model is attractive, is it?
It’s never acknowledged this is one of the worst looking draft classes in years in terms of the first round, either.
I’ve seen people claim Wilson is ‘done’.
Presumably these people also felt Patrick Mahomes was ‘done’ as he threw 10 picks in half a season and grimaced his way through ugly game after ugly game before returning to some degree of form against Las Vegas?
Drew Brees threw 48 interceptions between 2012-14. Turnover machine.
Aaron Rodgers missed half a season in 2017 and had a 16/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When he returned in 2018, he threw only 25 touchdowns and Green Bay won just six games. Finished? He was the MVP two seasons later.
People are writing Wilson off during a season where he’s missed time due to injury for literally the first time in his pro or college career, he has a 104.5 quarterback rating and a 66.7% completion percentage. Prior to the Green Bay game he’d thrown ten touchdowns in five games and just one pick.
How dreadful.
Nobody thinks Wilson is flawless. Even his staunch defenders would acknowledge he hasn’t played his best football since the second half of last season, or that third down conversions haven’t been good enough.
Perhaps some of his biggest critics should be more willing to acknowledge how poor the O-line has been (his guards are graded at 54.2 and 63.6)? Or accept that despite passing on a series of talented running backs (tweet #1, tweet #2), the Seahawks retained too much faith in Chris Carson (and his embarrassing use of Joel Seedman as a personal trainer) and have now been left relying on Alex Collins for a running game.
A running game, by the way, that the Seahawks seemingly don’t trust anywhere near enough and that leaves Carroll admitting almost every week that he wished they’d ‘run more’.
There’s also a lot of fingers going in ears regarding some of the long lasting issues with the Carroll-led Seahawks, such as the way resource has been wasted, how the same issues keep reappearing year after the year, how the Seahawks have become increasingly desperate and seem to start every season with glaring needs, that the roster rebuild since 2018 has contradicted the preferred philosophy of the decision maker in Seattle or how difficult it is to draft a QB early successfully.
Some of these issues were addressed here.
They also appear to be willing to ignore the similarities between Seattle now and the final years of the Mike McCarthy era in Green Bay and are unwilling to acknowledge there’s precedent for a fairly straight forward path to return to contention by following the Packers’ lead.
For the sake of a Head Coach and VP of football operations who has overseen a terrible reset since 2018, you really don’t want to at least see what Wilson can do with an offensive-minded Head Coach before throwing everything away?
Really?
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Kenny Pickett is probably the #1 quarterback eligible for the 2022 draft
The British columnist Rod Liddle once coined the phrase ‘we’ve reached peak w**k’.
While reflecting on the Seahawks’ current situation, the term felt somewhat appropriate.
This really is the nadir when it comes to the Pete Carroll Seahawks.
They’ve played nine games, meaning there are eight more to be endured in this truly horrible season.
You’ve also got to wait at least eight weeks to find out what on earth will happen with this franchise moving forward.
I suspect many will want to fast forward to January and get on with it.
With so much football to play, the message will remain very much a rallying call. A ‘we’re not giving up’ type of address.
The more frank, deeper, reflective comments won’t come for a while.
It also means fans have an enormous amount of time to stew on the future.
Is this Carroll’s final year? What’s going to happen with Russell Wilson? Is it time for John Schneider to move on?
These questions could easily create anxiety for a fan base suddenly staring at a crossroads. The direction to be taken will be determined by a mostly unknown and anonymous ownership group who’ve barely uttered a sentence in public since the passing of Paul Allen.
In the meantime, Allen’s other great sporting venture — the Portland Trailblazers — appear to be stuck in an eerily similar malaise with an equally uncertain future for their star player.
Is it a coincidence? Probably not. The Seahawks benefitted from a world class owner and reached three Super Bowls through his leadership. By all accounts the new ownership structure appears to be a holding pattern. I can’t recall the last time such an arrangement bred success.
Whatever happens though, the best decisions are not made in haste. And this is why ‘peak w**k’ may not yet have been reached. The term could re-emerge in the New Year.
The decision to fire Jim Mora and appoint Carroll felt calculated and planned. It wasn’t something that just happened.
I suspect Allen made a decision on Mora weeks before anyone found out officially. Carroll was likely sounded out long before he walked into the auditorium, jokingly pretended to put on the strategically placed Seahawks helmet and breathed life and hope into every fan watching his opening press conference.
A decision on the next coach should take time. If necessary, a top candidate should be sounded out through the back-channels. An attractive, mind-blowing offer needs to be made — just as it was to Carroll and Mike Holmgren previously.
The Seahawks benefitted from ambitious thinking under Allen’s leadership. That, if nothing else, should firmly be retained.
If Carroll is considering retirement — as I suspect he most certainly is — then I hope he’s given ownership the heads up. They need to know what he’s thinking.
We’ll never know what their thought process is, of course, if they’re equally thinking a change is needed.
If a new GM is required, this is also something that needs to be managed very carefully. The modern NFL requires a close working relationship between coach and GM otherwise they just end up at odds with each other constantly.
If Schneider is to remain, he probably needs to pick Carroll’s replacement. Whether he deserves that much power is a major question mark given the way he’s handled the draft and recruitment since the re-set.
It should also be noted that any prospective coach and GM is going to know what he’s walking into. Will top candidates want to tackle another Wilson trade saga? Will they want to trade him and rebuild? Will that be attractive to a GM or a reason to run away, arms flailing in the wind?
Listening to the right people for decisions like this is always important. If they are set to make changes, I’d hope they consult with Todd Leiweke — even if it’s just to get his recommendation on alternative advisors. I’d also arrange a meeting with former Baltimore GM (and current Executive VP) Ozzie Newsome to pick his brains.
If the decision is made to stick by a coach who earlier today stated his desire to beat the Aaron Rodgers-led Packers at Lambeau Field by a score of ‘about 9-3’ (only to lose 17-0) and a GM who set about Seattle’s re-set by drafting Rashaad Penny and L.J. Collier before trading the house for Jamal Adams — they also need to be fully aware of what that means.
It means life without Russell Wilson.
I can already see some people have decided they’re OK with that. Forget that Aaron Rodgers similarly had a pretty ‘meh’ performance yesterday — the toil in the Tundra was enough for some to take the shackles off and say, with confidence, that they want to move on.
Unlike many of those fans who increasingly seem to fill my Twitter timeline — I have studied the 2022 quarterback class in depth.
It’s worse than I originally thought — and I thought it was pretty bad to begin with.
I’m going to provide some notes on each ‘top’ quarterback prospect in a moment. Let me be clear though — I suspect trading Wilson will only lead to the signing of a stop-gap quarterback, in the mould of Tarvaris Jackson in 2011.
Names that spring to mind are Mitchell Trubisky and Teddy Bridgewater.
I think this is probably likely to be what would happen and it would be a catastrophe. Collecting a bunch of picks, moving on from Wilson and starting afresh might appeal to some. Let’s see how they feel when Trubisky is running the offense. Or when those draft picks turn into players who actually have to be good.
They could try and trade for a veteran. Dealing for Aaron Rodgers to play Carroll-ball just seems highly unlikely. Why would he or Deshaun Watson want to come and play in the system Wilson is so eager to detach himself from?
Watson has a no-trade clause like Wilson. I’m not sure about Rodgers. All three individuals, though, have a big say in their next destination.
If Wilson goes — he’ll likely be replaced by a competition between a draft pick and a veteran desperate for a job.
I’m now going to offer brief thoughts on the 2022 quarterback class in what I hope will be a stark ‘careful what you wish for’ warning. I’ll also say, there isn’t a name or names to pine for in 2023. This is a difficult stretch at the quarterback position in college football. I can’t think of a worse time to trade a legit starting quarterback.
Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
He’s the best of the group but it’s dabbing with faint praise. Pickett is a plus athlete with greater agility and explosive lower body power than most realise. His SPARQ testing was impressive. He’s well sized at 6-3 and 220lbs and in the midst of a breakout season, having opted to return for a fifth year due to the Covid rules in college football. He’s extremely busy in the pocket. Too often when he feels outside pressure he does well initially to step up. However, he just keeps going — too often stepping into the focus of a linebacker and creating unnecessary pressure. He needs to be able to step up and then settle down, allowing plays to develop and taking what’s on offer. He’s also hesitant to throw — refusing to throw basic completions and take what the defense gives. I’ve seen him reject plays that are on (simple plays) and you end up screaming ‘just get rid of it’. He’s the opposite of Mac Jones in that regard and it concerns me what he’ll be like at the next level with a faster game and tighter windows. This is especially concerning because he’s in year five at Pitt. The game has clearly slowed down for him enough to elevate his performance this year significantly. But if there’s a seven yard reception open on a check down and you’re stood in the pocket, just get rid. If your receiver finds a window on a crosser and it’s open as a primary target, don’t hold the football because it’s not wide open. I’ve not seen a lot of evidence of amazing anticipation throws and throwing receivers open (again, Jones was adept here and it’s why he’s having a strong rookie campaign.) His arm strength is fine and he’s completed some pretty throws this year. His production is impressive and he’s in the Heisman picture. He’s also taken Pittsburgh up a level with his performances. Yet there’s a distinct lack of ‘wow’ factor with Pickett and it’s difficult to recommend him as much more than a second round prospect.
Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)
More of an athlete than quarterback at this stage. Willis has major technical flaws in terms of his footwork and throwing motion that lead to massive issues with consistency. In a given game you’ll see him throw a laser in one instance with impressive velocity and direction, then on the next throw he’ll one-hop an easy completion or just flat out miss because his body, shoulders and legs aren’t working together. His release point switches between low and slingy and javelin-like. He takes too many sacks. His eyes drop when he sets off as a runner or scrambler and he’s too eager to come off throws and set off. He’s thrown nine interceptions this season, his second with Liberty after two years with Auburn. As a runner he is strong and has a nice combination of speed and power that enables him to make gains (755 rushing yards and ten touchdowns so far this year). However, he lacks the gliding suddenness of Lamar Jackson or Kyler Murray to be dynamic as a game-changing running threat. He’s more of a scramble-then-go type and at 6-1 and 215lbs I worry about the hits he’ll take because he attracts contact. I’m not sold on him as a pro-prospect and think he’s very much a mid-rounder or day three pick who can come in and compete, rather than someone I’d necessarily want to try and insert as a future franchise star. Frankly, I saw a lot of Tarvaris Jackson here.
Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
Of all the quarterbacks in this class, Ridder is the one who has delivered passes that had me sit up in my chair and think, ‘wow’. He had one downfield against Notre Dame that was inch perfect and one straight down the seam to the tight end with velocity and placement that made me think this guy could be legit. Yet the more you watch, the more you realise he falls very much into the ‘like not love’ category. There are some throws that are just off. He needs to learn to align his hips and shoulders to face the target more consistently. There are also times where you wonder what he’s processing, what he’s seen. I was surprised to see he only had six picks on the year. He’s mobile and can scramble but you wouldn’t say he has major ability to break off gains or dodge a pass rush. Still, it’s a plus that he can extend and improvise. He’s only ranked 33rd in college football for QBR. Yet as I said — he has delivered those moments of magic and he’s clearly elevating Cincinnati into legit playoff contention. The thing is — Kellen Mond had many, many more ‘wow’ moments than Ridder and he only ended up being a round three pick. I don’t think Ridder is as good as Mond and currently I would say round three is his absolute ceiling with a placing in rounds four or five perhaps more likely. There’s something there — whether you’re able to bring it out enough for him to be a starting NFL quarterback is the question.
Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)
There are certain offensive schemes you just can’t trust. Lane Kiffin’s is right up there. The extreme spread nature of it and the way he draws up plays is impressive purely in terms of how he challenges opponents at the college level. He manufactures points, production and winning teams and what he’s doing at Ole Miss deserves more credit than he’s getting, given the state of the team when he took over. However, it’s not much of a scheme for judging quarterback prospects. Everything is easy. Corral will be replaced next season and the production will likely remain. It reminds me of the Oklahoma State offense — which churned out QB’s year after year, none of which went on to amount to anything in the pro’s. Corral lacks defining qualities in terms of arm strength, size, the ability to throw with anticipation, to read progressions. He executes the offense as he’s instructed to and that’s great. But I can’t sit here and say this 6-0, 200lbs quarterback is destined to be anything at the next level. He simply isn’t throwing difficult passes, he’s not showing us anything we need to see to judge him as a pro prospect. He doesn’t stand out physically in any way to compensate for the fact he isn’t really being challenged mentally. There’s just nothing really to get excited about.
Carson Strong (QB, Nevada)
I keep seeing people post videos on twitter of Strong completing passes with accompanying text declaring he’s done something outstanding. And most of the time I just think, ‘heh?’. Strong looks decidedly average to me. People wax lyrical about his arm strength but it doesn’t seem particularly amazing. I think his accuracy is very inconsistent, shown up by the fact he’s only 55th in college football for QBR. He’s not elusive or able to extend plays and is no threat as a scrambler. He’s a pocket passer who looks very much like a mid-round type at best. Against California — hardly a testing opponent in 2021 — he was way off in the red zone and frequently forced dangerous passes into tight windows. When he senses pressure all he can do is toss it up because he’s a statue in the backfield. If you give him a clean pocket and time he’ll launch into nice windows and make plays. How often do you get that luxury in the NFL? Throwing on the move is laboured and challenging. I can’t even imagine him running play action and boot legs with ease. He suffered a serious knee injury in High School and still wears a chunky brace.
Spencer Rattler (QB, Oklahoma)
It’s increasingly likely he won’t declare after his benching at Oklahoma. Rattler appears destined to transfer and have another go in 2022. Why was he benched? Too many reckless, careless throws where he trusted his arm and made bonehead decisions. There isn’t a double or triple coverage look he hasn’t thrown at. Rattler has some of the qualities NFL teams admire these days. He’s a skilled thrower on the run and can launch the football from different throwing angles. He’s creative and has ample arm strength. Yet at the next level he’ll be a liability — a turnover machine — unless he can vastly improve his decision making and ability to read coverages to make proper decisions so that his talent can be harnessed correctly.
Sam Howell (QB, North Carolina)
Have you ever thought what it’d be like to watch Carson Palmer run 17 quarterback draws in a game? Then throw on a North Carolina game and watch Howell show you how it’s done. There is simply nothing remarkable about Howell’s game. He’s stocky and tries to do too much with his legs. His arm strength is fine but his accuracy just doesn’t cut the mustard. His downfield throws are hit and miss and without UNC’s brilliant running duo from a year ago, he’s been left a bit exposed as his completion percentage has dipped and his turnovers have increased. He has not elevated his team enough. He just looks average, really. A player who has been promoted beyond his capabilities simply because he started as a true freshman and gained a degree of early-career hype.
I’d actually be more prepared to build a case for Tanner McKee than the names above, despite Stanford’s awful season. McKee, like Davis Mills before him, has shown technical qualities within a struggling team. Also like Davis, I think with more playing experience he could become a useful player.
As noted recently, 30 quarterbacks were drafted between 2013-2020. Of that group, you can argue eight truly justified the picks used on them.
That’s a 26% success rate. Or in other words, history says you’ve got a 74% chance of making a bad investment at quarterback in the first two rounds.
I can’t say any of this group appear to be on a trajectory to join the list of success stories. This entire class reminds me of the 2013 group. Weak at the top and the first quarterback taken was Geno Smith #39 overall.
Sadly, I could see whichever quarterback is taken first among this group having a very similar career to Smith.
If given the choice between this bunch and calling Minnesota to see whether they’d be willing to do business for Kellen Mond — I’d probably pick Mond.
Alas — I fear I’ll be spending most of the next three months trying to write pro’s and con’s for the 2022 quarterback group — while contemplating a potential camp battle with Trubisky or someone else.
I sense this is heading one way with Wilson — regardless of the future of Carroll in Seattle. If the franchise wishes to build around him for the next 8-10 years, they’ll need to make that very clear and recruit him into the project. It’s starting to feel very much like Wilson will believe a fresh start is required and I imagine he will have his eyes fixed firmly in the direction of Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints.
I just hope that the powers that be within Seahawks ownership are ready and have a plan to avoid this franchise turning into a shambles.
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It’s pretty clear Russell Wilson isn’t close to 100%.
Yet the Seahawks had little choice but to take a chance on him still being able to deliver.
There’s no way, with Wilson saying he’s ready to roll, you could look him in the eye and say ‘no dice — we’re going with Geno Smith’.
I’m not convinced the offense would’ve functioned any better regardless. That’s more a review of Smith, though. Clearly Wilson shouldn’t be starting but when you’re desperate, you have little choice but to roll the dice.
The result was a first shut-out in a decade and another horrendous Seahawks gameday experience.
The overall feeling is one of utter resignation. How has it come to this?
The franchise is stagnant, stale and going nowhere fast. Games are to be endured, not enjoyed. There’s just no buzz, no energy. No hope.
They’re drifting into an off-season of uncertainty when anything and everything feels possible.
Seattle’s defense deserves credit for keeping the team in it for three quarters. Even when Aaron Rodgers found the holes (and he had far too much success with screen passes — again), they typically made a play to prevent damage on the scoreboard.
Then at the end Carlos Dunlap gave away 15 yards for throwing a shoe and Bobby Wagner rode A.J. Dillon into the endzone. They’d reached the breaking point.
It never truly felt like there was ever any danger of the Seahawks winning, thanks to the ineptitude of the offense. The end score — 17-0 — actually feels like a fair reflection.
Even the most optimistic fan knew this was a game where you needed to cook up some gains. Wilson, despite what he was saying about being better than ever, wasn’t going to be with that taped-up finger. His accuracy was all over the place. Every throw felt like an adventure.
And let’s be right here — that shouldn’t surprise anyone. If you’re here to hammer Wilson after this performance, you’re barking up the wrong tree.
You needed the easy screen plays Green Bay feasted on. Yet, alas, Pete Carroll was left admitting this week the Seahawks aren’t any good at those — in the understatement of the decade.
Perhaps then a collection of plays to feed your two star receivers? Or some creative runs? Maybe use your second round pick instead of Penny Hart?
There was nothing. Little imagination, no inspiration.
They just seemed to be hoping Wilson could provide some magic — as he threw high and wide and battled with the finger. He was off all day.
They needed to be more calculated than that.
You can just imagine Pete Carroll’s speech after. ‘We didn’t get the third down conversions to get to our plays’.
Well, yeah. But you’re playing a quarterback with a taped up finger because the alternative is Geno Smith. This was always going to be a day when you had to manufacture movement. And the Seahawks were left wanting.
Strangely the Packers and Aaron Rodgers looked as discombobulated as Seattle did. They also played a very similar game — stalling on offense, strong on defense. They just had more yards.
It created a deathly boring contest until Green Bay’s exclamation point at the end.
Not helping matters were the refs — who made a number of head-scratching calls (to put it mildly).
As scruffy as it all was — and despite most of those bad calls going against the Seahawks — there’s no case to be made for Seattle deserving to win this game.
By the end even the defense looked like they were a bit cold and wanted to go home.
The Seahawks couldn’t even muster a point.
The Packers had twice as much yardage and time of possession.
It all leaves the Seahawks at 3-6 and anyone hoping for a late rally is going to need to dig deep into the bag of optimism. Wilson simply doesn’t appear healthy enough to drive Seattle on. And while the defense is playing much better (and yes, that includes a good game by Jamal Adams today) — the offense remains a million miles away from being able to play complementary football.
When you’re desperate you’ve got to come out swinging. Seattle feels reserved, conservative and playing a brand of football worthy of a season with lives to spare.
The Seahawks are out of lives.
This horrible season — which has been an absolute chore to watch — needs to end as soon as possible and the forthcoming big changes should be embraced now.
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The franchise has to choose.
Do they stick with Pete Carroll’s philosophy and a 70-year-old coach who appears to be reaching the natural conclusion of his tenure, and try to find from somewhere a competent replacement at quarterback (with one of the worst, if not the worst, quarterback draft classes upcoming)?
Or do they go in a new direction with a creative, offensive-minded leader who will have the franchise quarterback believing in the direction of the team again, making the most of the dynamic weapons at receiver and tight?
The failure to sign Odell Beckham Jr has been played down by many. Yet, in my opinion (for what it’s worth), the reason the Seahawks were never serious contenders for his signature is nothing to do with Seattle’s record, the Pacific Northwest destination or the voided money pushed into the 2022 cap.
It’s been suggested Seattle offered OBJ a deal ‘with the most concrete contract details’ by a respected insider.
As Mike Garofolo also suggests, this is all to do with offensive philosophy. Carroll’s brand of football.
Sean McVay personally called Beckham, detailed how he would be used within a creative, aggressive offensive framework — and the deal was done.
The thought of playing Carroll-ball in Seattle just isn’t appealing. For Beckham or other potential targets.
Russell Wilson and Beckham are close. I would suggest closer than many fans realise. And despite a lot of talk of OBJ being ‘unnecessary’ for Seattle — you can never have enough quality players. The Rams sense that — that’s why they’re aggressively still adding despite already being a contender. It’s also what Tampa Bay did a year ago.
The philosophy that led Beckham to fear playing in Seattle is the same philosophy that has had Wilson concerned for a long time.
The OBJ decision will not help this situation. At all.
Some will say this is all old news. The problems were well known before any of this business with a suddenly available wide receiver.
It’s more than that. It’s the fact that this week reinforced the problem, fed the growing monster that it’s becoming and should act as a warning sign to ownership.
And isn’t that the big problem? The great unknown with ownership. Not knowing whether they will make the right call when the time comes.
We don’t need to throw the baby out with the bathwater and castigate all that Carroll stands for, or undermine his great achievements in Seattle. He is a legendary coach and deserves to be recognised as such. A true hero for the franchise.
We also need to recognise when it’s time for change.
We have now reached that time.
Carroll or Wilson.
They will not both be back next season.
That’s the choice for ownership in a few weeks time.
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Note: This is a guest post by Curtis Allen and the latest piece in a weekly series. Curtis looks at the Seahawks and their opponents and discusses key factors…
This game has all the makings of a highlight game for the Seahawks. Every time they have played the Packers in recent years, the stakes, the game play and the outcome have all been memorable and had a definite impact on both franchises.
That is no less true this season. The Seahawks are coming off a bye at 3-5, staring down an offseason of seismic changes and are returning their franchise quarterback to the field after a 1-2 stretch that has put into sharp focus what is most important to their continued success.
Of note is the home team has won every game since 2008 in this head-to-head
matchup.
Can the Seahawks break that streak and get a win in Lambeau Field? A loss would tumble them to 3-6 and may well mean they would have to run the table in order to secure a playoff spot. A win elevates them to 4-5 and would give them some badly needed momentum and confidence for the stretch run.
How can the Seahawks secure a win against Green Bay on Sunday?
Let Russell Wilson remind you why he is your most important player
This is uncharted territory for the Seahawks.
Yes, Russell has played with injuries in the past, even serious ones. This is different. He has missed time. The offense has sputtered and the team has dropped winnable games in his absence. Pete Carroll has even admitted Wilson would have made the difference in those games.
He is back now. Let him make a difference in this game.
It is his first game back after a serious injury. On the road, in cold conditions. Against a tough opponent with their playoff lives on the line.
There will be a strong temptation to ease him in and keep him out of harms’ way as much as possible in this game. To have a conservative, run-centric game plan that lets Russell work his way back onto the field.
That may be a good idea for the first series. Let Wilson get a feel for live game action again. Taking snaps, handing the ball off, and making a simple throw or two.
After that though, they have got to let him play the balance of the game as if his finger had not been hurt.
His value to the team is too high and the stakes are too important to not make full use of him. We have seen the results of Pete Carroll reining in the passing game, relying on the defense and special teams to win the field position game. They need to put the ball in Wilson’s capable hands in order to win this game.
The Packers are obviously preparing for Russell to be 100% but that slight mental inclination that his finger will hold him back could give the Seahawks a window to take advantage of, particularly early in the game, when the unknown could be a real advantage.
One opportunity for effective play that will seemingly go against instincts to protect Russell is to have him run if he sees an opening.
Quarterback runs have proved a useful weapon against the Packers defense this season. They have allowed 18 first downs and 6.71 yards per carry to quarterbacks so far this year.
This strategy is not without precedent. In their last meeting (the divisional round of the playoffs in 2019), Wilson single-handedly kept a battered Seahawks team in the game with seven carries for 64 yards and five first downs in addition to his throws.
Watch Wilson take advantage of the openings to move his team down the field in that game:
Cue the video to 6:19. On a third and six, Russell surveys the field and then takes off for a 22-yard run to jumpstart the offense in the third quarter. Notice Preston Smith is closing quickly. If Wilson decides to try a throw there — that is a sack and the drive is over. Instead, the drive is sustained and the Seahawks score a touchdown.
Look at 8:11. Wilson gets a 9-yard run on third and one from the Packers 11-yard line for a first down to keep that drive going, which resulted in yet another touchdown. Notice that he did not wait. He saw the opening and took it decisively. On that drive alone, Wilson had 26 rushing yards and three first downs.
There is an argument to be made that not only is this an effective way to attack the Packers defense but it could also actually protect Russell in a sense. That tender finger is out of harm’s way, being tucked in carrying the football. I think we can all trust him to know when to slide or step out of bounds on a run and keep himself from injury.
Will everyone from Pete Carroll to Shane Waldron to Russell Wilson himself have the guts to play this game aggressively?
Fortune favors the brave.
This is Russ’ team now and they are going to go as far as he can take them this year.
Let him.
There is another key reason why this a good strategy overall…
Aggression on offense is necessary to compete in this game
The Packers play a high-quality brand of complementary football, with an offense that has plenty of weapons and flexibility. They get a lead and allow the defense to play aggressively to keep teams from implementing their full game plan.
Practically every stat the Packers have put up this year on both offense and defense strongly supports the conclusion that the Seahawks need to come out of the gate with an aggressive mindset on offense and establish some forward momentum as early as possible.
An incredible fifteen of their twenty-one sacks have come when leading the game. Seven of their nine interceptions have come when leading.
The Packers defense is allowing only a 52.5% completion rate on third down passes, regardless of how many yards to gain there are, one of the lowest rates in the NFL. Comparatively, they are allowing a 67.8% rate on first down and a 69.3% on second down. Currently, the gap between the rates allowed on first or second and third is the highest in the NFL.
The offense would do well to take advantage of those rates on first and second down and make use of the pass to set up the run, rather than the other way around. Having short yardage third downs allows the offense to run their entire playbook rather than be restricted to lower-percentage plays against a tough defense.
Playing ahead of the chains with a pass-heavy approach in order to limit third down distances (or altogether) is a sound strategy for another reason.
It will help the offense move the ball down the field and get into the red zone – where the Packers are currently one of worst defenses in the NFL. They have allowed touchdowns on 76% of opponents’ red zone trips, good for 31st in the league, barely beaten to the bottom by the Detroit Lions. They have shown improvement of late but the body of work this season points to the Seahawks having a full range of offensive options in the red zone.
Therefore, there is real incentive to aggressively move the ball down the field.
Another statistical incentive to build up some momentum in the first half? The Packers defense has demonstrated a strong ability to make halftime adjustments.
Every measurable defensive statistic shows they perform better in the second half of the game, from QB Rating Allowed (99 first half / 82 second half), to interceptions forced (2 / 6), to sacks (8 / 13).
And that is before we talk about what a closer Aaron Rodgers is on offense.
The Seahawks cannot afford a slow start in this game.
A simple ‘test your jab and punt for field position’ mindset early in the game gives the Packers opportunities to set up their offense and employ strategies to strike at the defense later in the game.
Use the offense to attack them early in the series and early in the game.
Disrupt Aaron Rodgers
The Packers offense is a sight to see with Rodgers at the helm. Working with a runner like Aaron Jones and a wide receiver of Davante Adams’ capability gives this offense real versatility and allows Matt LaFleur to flex his creative muscles to set up and attack the defense.
Of note is Rodgers’ average time in the pocket before a throw – it has decreased the last three seasons, from 2.6 seconds in 2019, to 2.5 last year and now so far in 2021 to a miniscule 2.2 seconds. That is in the bottom-five for starting quarterbacks in the NFL.
Do not be fooled, though. It is not a matter of the pass rush being effective or his pass blocking being poor. Rodgers is right in the middle of the pack for total pressures and pressure percentage.
Where are the short times coming from then? That is by design.
Rodgers’ field of targets has been slowly pulled back by LaFluer, so he quickly gets the ball out closer to the line of scrimmage. The Packers employ a generous amount of creativity getting the receivers open, so Rodgers avoids the pass rush by reading the defense, communicating with his receivers pre-snap and making a quick throw.
Davante Adams is an absolute weapon in this area. The Packers will literally line him up all over the field. He has been in the top-15 for targets for all three receiver positions for years now. He and Rodgers have fantastic chemistry.
Everyone on the field needs to know where #17 is before the ball is snapped.
Have a look at Rodgers’ rating chart. He is doing exceptionally well in passing behind the line of scrimmage and within the 10-yard window:
The Packers use these quick plays at times in lieu of a running game. It is a way to stretch the field and test how the defense reacts, in order to feel out some options for later in the game.
Therefore, providing disruption is a process.
The defensive backs and linebackers must be ready to close quickly on receivers in the flat. If they can limit these plays to just a couple yards per attempt — and even occasionally make a tackle for loss — that reduces that option’s effectiveness and makes Rodgers look for his second and third reads.
When he does, the pass rushers must be ready to pounce and provide pressure. Rodgers is not particularly known as a mobile quarterback in comparison to some of the ultra-athletic players around the league but he buys time with his feet and finds open receivers as well as anyone.
The front four defenders must limit the time Rodgers has to scan the field. They cannot rely on blitzing in this game to provide pressure. If they can get pressure with their standard package, that will allow them to have one more defender patrolling that five-to-fifteen-yard pocket downfield and keep Rodgers from turning a potentially negative-yardage play into something spectacular.
Carlos Dunlap needs to kick off his second half with a bang. He provided a huge boost to the Seahawks’ pass rush last year in the second half. When he is on his game, he does so much more than just rush the passer himself. He draws attention and provides a physicality that opens opportunities for the other rushers. The defense badly needs a big game from him.
This game is crying out for Darrell Taylor to have a big impact. David Bakhtiari may not be ready to play at left tackle, as he was just activated off Injured Reserve. There is an opportunity to create some real problems for Rodgers if the Seahawks can get him onto the field regularly for this game.
They need his power:
I may watch this play more than my personal library of… Dan Marino throws.
I guess this is what @Joe_Fann & @BradyHenderson have been talking about for the last 18 months. #DarrellTaylor#ObsessedWithThePassRush pic.twitter.com/vsDQpGsrlr
— Mitch Levy (@Mitch_Seattle) September 14, 2021
And his ability to disrupt plays:
#VFL & Seahawks DE Darrell Taylor with the strip-sack of #Vikings QB Kirk Cousins today.
It’s Taylor’s second sack through the first three games.
via @NFL dot com pic.twitter.com/XjDNo78mm2
— RockyTopTalk (@RockyTopTalk) September 26, 2021
It is not just Rodgers that the Seahawks will disrupt if they can keep him from establishing a rhythm. It is their whole offensive system.
LaFluer, Rodgers and Adams work together to gain yards early, while seeing how the defense reacts. They build ‘layers’ of plays, which allow them to anticipate how the defense will line up and handle their formations later in the game.
With their near-mind-meld type connection, Adams and Rodgers can create all kinds of problems if they are allowed to get into a rhythm.
Do not let them.
Win on Special Teams
Special Teams have been quite the adventure for both teams this year.
The Seahawks had two missed field goal tries cost them the game against the Saints.
The punt coverage units have not been as much of a weapon as they have been in recent years as well. Decisions to punt deep in enemy territory have proven ineffective as they typically become touchbacks, for a net punt of 18-20 yards and gives the opposing offense some breathing room.
The Packers had three missed field goal tries against Cincinnati, with Mason Crosby mercifully making the fourth try to win the game in overtime.
They benefitted from a muffed punt by Rondale Moore in the Arizona game and were equally struck by a punt hitting Malik Taylor’s foot for a critical turnover in the Kansas City game last week. Crosby also missed a 40-yard field goal try and had another try blocked in the loss.
It has been so wild for both teams, I’m inclined to say, “whoever makes the least amount of mistakes on Special Teams wins the game.”
It may well come down to that.
Jason Myers rebounded with a good effort against Jacksonville, with one field goal try made and four extra points made. Michael Dickson averaged 45 yards per punt, including a 59-yard punt as well. They must keep up that level of play this week. Mistakes are not an option if they want to win this game.
One area the Seahawks may be able to exploit is on kickoff returns. The Packers are the second worst kickoff coverage team in the NFL so far this season, allowing an average of 27.5 yards per return (the Seahawks are second-best with only 18.2 yards).
Deejay Dallas has done an adequate job, but the Seahawks might consider giving Tyler Lockett or D.J. Reed a chance at a return if they feel the team needs a jolt.
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Odell Beckham Jr cleared waivers today, meaning he’s a free agent and able to select his next destination.
Only nine teams had the cap room to accommodate his $7m salary so once he reached a certain point on the waiver list, this wasn’t a surprise.
Beckham had already made it clear he wanted to play for a team with at least some chance of contending. This would appear to rule out Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Carolina and Washington. You could probably include Denver.
So the list of likely candidates wasn’t huge.
Seattle had the cap space and can at least make some attempt to claim they’re ‘still in the playoff mix’ with Russell Wilson returning.
Twitter is now debating whether the decision not to claim him is tied to the reality of Seattle’s cap situation, which we debated recently. By adjusting Duane Brown’s and Quandre Diggs’ contracts — they pushed money into 2022.
However, you could easily argue both players should be priority keeps for 2022. There’s nobody on the roster able to replace them. The Seahawks don’t need to create any more holes.
Diggs feels like the only player capable of forcing a turnover in the secondary. He is responsible for all three of their interceptions. Literally nobody else has a pick in the eight games played.
Brown’s performance this year might be a regression of sorts but his 70.3 PFF grade hardly signals his play as problematic.
Plus, it’s not like competent left tackles grow on trees.
Re-signing both and working the pushed-forward money into the equation just feels like common sense. Of course, it might’ve been better to tie both players down rather than prioritising the mammoth Jamal Adams contract which now looks like a dead weight hanging over the franchise.
Furthermore, you can always be creative with your cap. The $9m voided for Brown and Diggs is small money in the grand scheme of things. Tampa Bay just kept the band together after winning a Super Bowl despite forking out some big contracts. They also have other players needing to be rewarded soon. Look at the Rams too.
If you want to do something badly enough — you can.
So now NFL fans sit and wait to see what Beckham’s next move is.
This is purely speculative on my behalf but I wonder if a report earlier today that Beckham’s preferred destination was Green Bay was a nudge to the Seahawks to put a claim in.
If Beckham knew nobody was willing to commit to the $7m — he might get less to play in 2021. I suspect that’s very likely, unless he signs a multi-year contract.
What better way to try and smoke out a suitor than hint that you might be lining up against them on Sunday?
After all, it had been reported elsewhere that Beckham wanted Seattle and Wilson was pitching for it to happen.
Of course it’s also plausible he simply wants to play with a legendary quarterback in Green Bay with a legit chance of reaching the Super Bowl.
We’ll see what happens next. I think it’s stating the obvious, however, to suggest the Seahawks stand a better chance of clawing their way into the post-season by leaning on their franchise quarterback and loading him with weapons, rather than hoping for a Carroll-ball special of Alex Collins/Rashaad Penny running and the defense keeping you in games.
They play the Packers and Cardinals next. I’ll go out on a limb and say you’ll need points in those two games. There’s a very real threat Seattle could be 3-7 in a fortnight, making the upcoming ‘easier’ portion of the schedule a moot point.
‘How do we cover Metcalf, Lockett and Beckham?’ feels like a difficult question for opponents to answer. ‘How do we score against this defense?’ or ‘how do we stop Rashaad Penny’ feels like a lesser challenge.
It’ll be fascinating to see what they do. Beckham didn’t guarantee wins and he alone certainly wasn’t the difference between success and failure.
His addition, however, could mean something to the quarterback. It could mean they’re listening to him in the way Tampa Bay listened to Tom Brady a year ago. That, in essence, seems to be all that Wilson wants.
Two weeks ago Carroll admitted he probably wouldn’t have survived in Seattle as long as he has without Wilson. And he’s right. Seattle’s run of winning seasons is directly tied to Wilson’s arrival. Let’s hope he hasn’t forgotten that after a win against hopeless Jacksonville (and yes — they’re still hopeless irrespective of an admittedly impressive win against an out-of-sorts Buffalo team).
Let me repeat some salient points. This isn’t a good looking 2022 draft class at the top-end. The quarterback options are incredibly concerning. Carroll and Schneider’s key additions at quarterback pre-Wilson were Charlie Whitehurst, Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Flynn. They made bad decisions with their top picks in recent years. We’ve just seen what watching the Seahawks without Wilson is like and it was extremely boring and frustrating.
Not adding Beckham, persisting with Carroll’s philosophy and failing to make the playoffs will lead to divorce in the off-season.
To the people hoping for that — be careful what you wish for.
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Wilson and OBJ are close friends
Make no mistake, what happens between now and tomorrow is important.
The Russell Wilson trade saga had been simmering for some time. As we all know, what really kicked things into gear was Wilson sitting at the Super Bowl watching Tom Brady win another Championship.
Here was a team, 100% invested in their quarterback, enjoying success.
When Brady wanted Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay obliged. When Bruce Arians said publicly there was no chance of Antonio Brown being added. Guess what? He ends up with the Buccs because Brady wanted him.
No quarterback had more weapons by the end of the year. No quarterback had been listened to in quite the way Brady had — from personnel decisions to game plan.
What Brady wanted, he received. And it worked.
Wilson craves that. He perhaps feels he’ll need to go somewhere else to get what he wants — just as Brady did.
He doesn’t want to confine the best years of his career to a philosophy he doesn’t believe in. Clearly, as the likes of Greg Olsen have made clear, he doesn’t think Pete Carroll’s approach will deliver success. That doesn’t mean he hates Carroll or has a bad relationship with his Head Coach. It just means he doesn’t want to look back in 20 years and wonder what could’ve been.
That’s why the four teams Mark Rodgers passed on to Adam Schefter all had offensive-minded Head Coaches. Wilson wants to do things differently and yes — that means a lot of passing.
He sees the success Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have had. He sees the creativity Buffalo uses with Josh Allen. He’s seen first hand what Sean McVay can do for whoever starts in LA. Plus of course, Brady in Tampa Bay.
He wants a slice of that.
He also wants the team to deliver when he makes a personnel request.
A year ago Antonio Brown was destined to land in Seattle before he quickly bolted for Florida. Wilson and Carroll even conducted press conferences where they were asked about the signing — that’s how inevitable the deal felt at the time.
It probably wasn’t anyone’s fault in Seattle (although the team hastily put out in the media that they decided against the move in a clear case of damage limitation). This was the draw of Brady at work — an immovable force within the NFL.
Now the Seahawks are in a similar position. According to reports, Odell Beckham Jr ‘prefers’ to join the Seahawks after being released by the Browns. Other reports have since suggested Wilson has urged the team to sign him.
If they don’t put in a waiver claim or sign him if/when he clears waivers — what will this say to Wilson?
It’s easy to imagine this making a deteriorating situation even worse.
The quarterback could easily view it as such — the Seahawks prefer to save their $13m in cap space for next year, rather than push to get back into the playoff mix in 2021.
Furthermore, they failed to act on his desire for Beckham — a close friend — to join him in Seattle.
I would suggest the Seahawks, if they really want to try and ‘have a go’ this year, should add Beckham and open up their passing game. The running game has been an incoherent mess at times with no consistency. The defense plays in fits and starts. Their best chance to make a late run is to lean on their star quarterback and give him an arsenal of weapons capable of beating any team.
This goes against Carroll’s preferred methods but at 3-5 and with the season on the brink of being wasted — this is no time for sticking to your guns.
How do you cover Beckham, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett? That’s a great question to ask upcoming opponents.
Beckham might prove to be a busted flush. He might have minimal impact or even get injured again.
Yet the price — essentially half of their remaining cap space if they claim him off waivers — is so small, what exactly are you losing if it doesn’t work out? At least you gave yourself the best chance to make some noise this season.
Always compete? How can you even utter those words if you sit on $13m and continue to pass up opportunities like Beckham and Stephon Gilmore?
For the cost of two Benson Mayowa’s, why not have a go to see if this once elite receiver can rekindle his magic when playing in the same offense as Wilson and two other stud receivers?
Not signing him could be the final straw for Wilson, setting the table for an eventual trade in the off-season. Only this weekend Adam Schefter and Chris Mortensen were discussing the prospect of the Philadelphia Eagles making a move.
Currently the Eagles are slated to own the #3, #7 and #14 picks in the 2022 draft — putting them in pole position to trade for a veteran signal caller.
If the Seahawks land Beckham and make a firm statement to Wilson — it might not heal all wounds but at least it shows they’re trying.
If Beckham lands somewhere else and all indications show that, despite Wilson’s desires, they weren’t interested — we’ll need to start looking a bit closer at how Seattle will be spending those high first round picks.
If you’ve missed our draft coverage this year — the 2022 class has plenty of depth but lacks star talent at the top end. Even if you end up with #3, #7 and #14 — you’re unlikely to find a quarterback you’re sold on for the future. You’d also be left nervously hoping to land a top name such as Kayvon Thibodeaux or Derek Stingley.
Land those two and perhaps someone like Jordan Davis or Trevor Penning and you might be able to say with confidence you’ve properly bolstered ‘need’ areas. Yet the finger crossing involved with a Kenny Pickett or Malik Willis taken later in the draft — if available — is enough to create plenty of anxiety.
Both players, along with several other quarterback prospects, have positive traits. Yet nobody has emerged this year to definitively say — ‘draft me, I am the top signal caller in this class’.
We may end up having to dig into that pool of prospects very soon, regardless.
As Wilson prepares to return to action this week against Green Bay, this feels like a significant 24 hours. Let’s see what happens.
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