Author: Rob Staton (Page 78 of 428)

Earlier today Peter King dedicated a chunk of his latest ‘Football Morning in America‘ article to draft speculation. This included stuff that’s become increasingly common. Bryce Young to the Panthers. Tyree Wilson potentially jumping Will Anderson. Draft Twitter liking Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than teams.

He then came onto everyone’s favourite subject. Jalen Carter and the Seahawks:

Lots of teams look at the fifth slot—Seattle, with Mr. Positive, Pete Carroll, as coach—and automatically think it’s a good shot. It may well be. Detroit, at six, and Chicago and Philly, at nine and 10, also seem to be in play. Who takes the risk on Carter, and who gambles on the potential reward, is going to be one of the big stories of round one.

King then added:

It’s become almost a cliché, how many team officials think the Seahawks will take Carter with the fifth overall pick.

I’ve already had people sending me tweets asking for reaction. My thoughts haven’t changed — and won’t change — based on what other teams think the Seahawks are going to do. I’ll recap why in a bit.

Firstly though, I wanted to highlight King’s 2022 mock draft a year ago — where he had the Seahawks taking Kayvon Thibodeaux after trading down:

*13. Seattle Seahawks: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
*Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.

Perfect Pete Carroll pick. Thibodeaux’s an LA kid, he’ll be supremely ticked off at not being the first edge off the board and falling this far, and Carroll knows how to feed into the mental game that fuels players. That, plus Thibodeaux would be the kind of top talent that the Seahawks never get to pick in the draft because they’re always picking at the bottom of the round, or later. Thibodeaux, if he works out, would be a good pick for a team devoid of a top-end pass-rusher, in a division with some serious passing games.

I’d like this pick, in this spot, for Seattle. I’m not alone. “Thibodeaux at 13 would be a coup for Seattle,” one GM told me Sunday when I apprised him of my diabolical plan to send the Oregon edge down the draft board.

Thibodeaux is described as a ‘perfect Pete Carroll pick’ and there’s a quote from a GM praising the fit. Here’s a quote 12 months later from Dave Wyman, co-host of the John Schneider show on 710 Seattle Sports, on Thibodeaux and the Seahawks:

“That was a guy that they just weren’t going to draft. Probably in the second round or at some point. That was just a guy they weren’t very high on”

So a year ago, Thibodeaux was the perfect pick. Ideal Carroll project. But the Seahawks, actually, had no interest. There’s a cautionary tale there.

Here are some anonymous scouting sources courtesy of a report from Bob McGinn discussing Thibodeaux a year ago:

“He’s the best pure pass rusher if he plays hard all the time and acts like he likes football,” said one scout. “Does he like playing in the NFL, or like the NFL lifestyle and what that entails? If you put Hutchinson’s heart in Thibodeaux’s body then you’d have Myles Garrett.”

Described by a fourth scout who interviewed him as “very opinionated, not afraid to speak his mind on what he’s seen in life and his perception of himself and the world.”

I get the sense there’s a narrative among teams and the media that the Seahawks are willing to take a chance on practically anyone. I think this is a mistake.

When the Seahawks drafted Frank Clark — in the late second round, it has to be said, not the top-10 — there was a concerning allegation of domestic violence attached to Clark. The Seahawks claimed they’d done extensive research on Clark and were comfortable taking him.

The thing is, nobody questioned Clark’s football character, passion for the game or work ethic. Was he a character concern? Yes, absolutely. But he was also a competitor and as we know, that is integral for Carroll.

Look at other players who were interesting characters, difficult personalities, outspoken, had baggage or an interesting background. Bruce Irvin, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman. There are others. They were all 100% heart-and-soul types when it came to football.

Carroll could live with the challenge of coaching Lynch because when game-time came around, you knew you’d get every sinew from him.

I suspect the reason they were reportedly against drafting Thibodeaux is for the reasons mentioned above, that were widely reported at the time. Does he love the game? Are you going to get everything from him?

It certainly wasn’t a talent issue. So there had to be a reason and this is the information we have to work with.

There are similar questions lingering over Jalen Carter. From the reported poor practise habits, the way he hasn’t taken to coaching, the poor conditioning hinting at a questionable work ethic and application to his career, the feeling that he basically did what he wanted at Georgia in terms of attending meetings and workouts and the pattern of mistake-making that led to legal trouble.

Here’s what McGinn’s sources say about Carter:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.”

“Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader. He’s phenomenally talented. He’s going to run like a deer. He’s the epitome of star or bust.”

This is why I’ve been so confident in suggesting the Seahawks won’t take Carter. He is immensely talented, as is Thibodeaux. Yet I don’t think either are ‘Carroll guys’ as King and his sources imply. I think Carroll is always willing to give anyone a second, third or maybe even fourth chance. But you’ve got to fit the ‘always compete’ mantra. Based on what we’re hearing with Carter, as we heard from Thibodeaux, I don’t think there’s a match.

Look who they had in for a visit last week. Devon Witherspoon. A player who has had to clamber up from the JUCO routes and ‘no star’ recruiting status, has played a ton of snaps and shown rapid improvement for Illinois and when he gets on the field — despite being a smaller cornerback — he wants to hit you in the face and knock you on your arse.

That’s a Carroll guy. And if Witherspoon had a few quirky personality traits (I don’t know if he does or not) I doubt they’d take him off the board. His love for the game, his commitment to it and the way he plays is perfect for Seattle’s preferences.

I see that same approach from Will Anderson and the quarterbacks. Thus, I think at #5 there will be ample alternatives to Carter.

Someone will take Carter, just as someone was willing to take Thibodeaux early. I just don’t think it’ll be Seattle.

For the avoidance of any doubt my position remains the same as it’s been for several weeks. I think Will Anderson is probably their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board, I think there’s a very realistic chance they’ll take Anthony Richardson instead. C.J. Stroud potentially falling is something I need to spend some time thinking about. I think Will Levis is locked into the Colts at #4 and I don’t think the Seahawks will take Jalen Carter. If I’m wrong about Carter, I’ll own it.

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Michael Lombardi had some interesting things to say on VSiN this weekend. I’d recommend watching the whole video, which starts with a Rich Gannon interview. Eventually, Lombardi shares his betting advice (and therefore, his prediction) for the top picks.

Here are the highlights:

— Lombardi says by Wednesday or Thursday it’ll become ‘common knowledge’ that teams picking after Houston are doing their homework on C.J. Stroud. He adds, “I think Stroud is definitely going third or later.”

— He thinks there’s lukewarm interest to trade up for a quarterback because all of the QB’s have flaws and teams won’t want to give up an asset to inherit a problem. I think this is a fair point but it perhaps underestimates how much teams are willing to look at projection/upside plus need at the most important position. After all, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen had flaws too.

— Lombardi says the Colts won’t trade up to #3. I’ve never thought they would do either. Chris Ballard has clearly judged this class very similarly and has decided to pick whoever is there at #4 who he rates the highest.

— Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1. Regulars will know I’ve been projecting Levis to the Colts for a long time and see it as an ideal fit. I think this is why Chris Mortensen said Levis won’t get out of the top-five. If you really study the class and the Colts, the #4 pick has felt like the floor for Levis (despite all those mocks two weeks ago having him dropping into the late first). Lombardi mentions that of Levis, Stroud and Richardson — Levis is the only player who can start a game in 2023. That’s the point of the projection.

— In terms of Stroud, Lombardi thinks he’s a better prospect than Justin Fields because he’s a technically superior player with greater anticipation. However, he believes the state of the Ohio State offense — where Stroud had to take his reads from the sideline — has not prepared the quarterback for the NFL. This is something we spoke a lot about during the season. However, personally, I felt like I saw enough against Georgia to believe he can excel as a creative, improvising playmaker. He needs time. Ideally for Stroud, he would sit for a year. If he gets that opportunity, watch out.

— Lombardi suggests the Texans will see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson as more of a ‘sure-thing’. I would caution against that line of thinking. It’s how you end up drafting Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes.

— Hendon Hooker is a ‘great leader, great kid, great pocket presence’ but Lombardi notes that the Tennessee offense is a half-field read scheme. Anthony Richardson is described as not being an ‘alpha’ but he’s a ‘good kid’.

— He certainly sounds sceptical that the Cardinals will be able to trade out of the #3 spot. That makes sense, given Adam Schefter’s tweet last week trying to drum up interest in the #3 pick.

— Lombardi thinks it’ll go #1 Bryce Young and #2 Will Anderson. He tosses Jalen Carter in as a wildcard at #3. I’d be very surprised by that. Arizona needs a culture reset. Even if you’re Carter’s biggest fan, the Cardinals are not a good fit for a player with major question marks about his attitude, effort, football character, decision making and conditioning. They also have a rookie Head Coach and GM. It feels like a recipe for disaster. I do think Lombardi opens the door for Arizona not being able to trade down though and the top three being Young, Anderson and Tyree Wilson.

— He finishes by saying he thinks Seattle and Detroit will take ‘defensive ends or rushers’. I’m not sure who he thinks they’ll take in those slots if Anderson and Wilson are both gone. He might think Carter but personally I think he’s a very unlikely fit for Seattle and Detroit (aka, ‘Always Compete’ and ‘we want people who will eat your kneecaps’). I also think perhaps Lombardi is overlooking that while Stroud and Richardson might not be ready to start in year one, wouldn’t they be ideally placed in Seattle and Detroit to sit and learn? Isn’t that what they need?

These are interesting thoughts and worth paying attention to. Lombardi is connected, doesn’t mince his words and knows what he’s talking about.

My biggest takeaway from it all is that it might not be that unlikely for Stroud to last to #5, something that was unthinkable a few weeks ago. While I’m sure the Seahawks are very interested in drafting someone like Will Anderson if possible, it’d be quite a decision if they passed on someone like Stroud to take whichever defensive lineman is next on their list at #5.

If you missed my new video mock draft earlier, check it out here:

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Tony Pauline is reporting that the Seahawks sent Steve Hutchinson to work out Joe Tippmann and John Michael Schmitz recently:

Hall of Famer Steve Hutchinson, now an offensive line consultant for the Seahawks, met with Tippmann earlier this week as Seattle debates which center grades higher, the Wisconsin junior or Schmitz.

Tippmann could be the Seahawks’ selection at 20, the same pick the Lions used to select Ragnow in 2018. Seattle will also look to trade down from 20 with the hopes Tippmann or Schmitz are available later. I’m told discussions are already taking place to move that selection.

If they are able to trade down from pick 20, Schmitz could be their guy. If he happens to be available to Seattle at pick 37, it would be manna from heaven for the franchise.

It’s an interesting report and chimes with a lot of what we’ve been discussing recently. When I appeared on the ‘5th Year Option’ podcast this week I said I was going to mock Schmitz to Seattle in every mock between now and draft. Twenty-four hours later I went back on that, because it was just too tempting to have the Seahawks trade down below the Giants, with New York selecting Schmitz at #26.

My focus so far has been on Schmitz and Luke Wypler. Both ran good short shuttles (4.53 for Wypler, 4.56 for Schmitz). That is crucial for the scheme. They both have wrestling backgrounds. They aren’t too tall and a year ago Pete Carroll mentioned at the owners meeting they wanted a shorter center for leverage purposes.

I hadn’t really considered Tippmann for that reason. He’s 6-6. He also didn’t do any combine or pro-day testing. However, he was listed on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list and is reportedly capable of running a remarkable 4.31 shuttle. If you’re wondering why he might be considered as high as #20 — there’s your reason.

According to Dane Brugler, “(Tippmann’s) teammates describe him as a “calm” communicator at center. Relates to every player in the locker room and NFL scouts and coaches give him strong character reviews.”

It sounds like a lot of fans are going to get what they want. It appears the Seahawks are going to make a point of drafting a center for the long term, sorting out the position once and for all.

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Did you know that 28 quarterbacks received a higher grade than Patrick Mahomes on NFL.com over the last 10 years?

Did you know that 22 quarterbacks received a higher grade than Josh Allen?

Well, now you know. There’s a lesson to be learned here.

Let me be clear. This article isn’t having a go at anyone. Quarterback scouting is hard. Especially because where a player is drafted — and who they’re coached by — is incredibly important.

So many young QB’s are drafted by desperate teams, thrust into starting jobs too early and they’re coached by inadequate coaches. The end result is a bust.

It’s no surprise that Mahomes has blossomed playing for Andy Reid, having been afforded a redshirt year as a rookie. It’s no surprise Josh Allen developed and thrived under Brian Daboll (with Daniel Jones having a breakout year under Daboll in 2022).

When they were coming into the league though, both players were criticised for being ‘toolsy’ but far from the finished product. In the end, they landed in the right place to have those tools developed. The result is two world class football players.

For the last few weeks we’ve heard a whole bunch of negative things about the 2023 quarterback class — particularly Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.

Haven’t we been here before?

I’d like to make a suggestion. All of the top four QB’s are excellent, physical talents. They aren’t physically limited, like some of the other quarterbacks taken in round one over the last 10 years. If they land with the right team and the right setup, they’ll probably thrive.

I think, for example, whoever goes first overall has a shot to make it playing for Frank Reich. I think the Colts will be a good place for a young quarterback. I can well imagine a young player succeeding in Atlanta with Arthur Smith. I think the Seahawks, because of Geno Smith and a QB-friendly offense, would be a good place for a player to sit and learn for a year like Mahomes.

I think Houston, on the other hand, could be a problem. They might even know that themselves, which is why we’re suddenly hearing about a defender being taken second overall.

You don’t often hear this angle in the media though. How many times are the physical tools of Richardson and Levis talked about positively, with the acknowledgement that if they land in the right place they could be developed into something special?

What we get instead is an obsession with flaws and what these players didn’t do in college, playing for two pretty mostly average teams.

I wanted to look at how every quarterback was graded over the last 10 drafts on NFL.com. I think it shows how inaccurate this pre-draft process can be. Again, this isn’t to criticise or embarrass anyone. Most of the grades below are from Lance Zierlein. I think Lance is fantastic — he clearly puts the work in and he should be respected greatly. He’s a treasure and someone who should be celebrated within the draft community.

However, how players were graded in the past helps us understand why it’s arguably wrong to criticise players without full context in the future.

In 2014 Nolan Nawrocki wrote the grades for NFL.com. This is how he scored the quarterbacks:

Blake Bortles — 6.80
Teddy Bridgewater — 6.80
Johnny Manziel — 6.40
Derek Carr — 6.30
A.J. McCarron — 6.20
Jimmy Garoppolo — 5.90

For what it’s worth, Odell Beckham and Zack Martin received the same 6.40 grade that Johnny Manziel got.

Lance Zierlein took over in 2015. Let’s look at how he graded the top quarterbacks:

2015

Jameis Winston — 7.00
Marcus Mariota — 6.80
Brett Hundley — 6.10

2016

Jared Goff — 7.00
Paxton Lynch — 6.80
Carson Wentz — 6.70
Connor Cook — 6.30
Christian Hackenburg — 6.10
Jacoby Brissett — 6.10
Dak Prescott — 5.90

2017

Mitchell Trubisky — 7.00
Deshaun Watson — 6.80
Deshone Kizer — 6.30
Patrick Mahomes — 6.30
Nathan Peterman — 6.30

2018

Sam Darnold — 7.10
Baker Mayfield — 6.70
Josh Rosen — 6.70
Josh Allen — 6.40
Lamar Jackson — 6.40
Mason Rudolph — 6.20

2019

Kyler Murray — 6.80
Dwayne Haskins — 6.70
Drew Lock — 6.40
Daniel Jones — 6.30

2020

Joe Burrow — 7.07
Tua Tagovailoa — 6.77
Justin Herbert — 6.45
Jordan Love — 6.36
Jacob Eason — 6.25
Jake Fromm — 6.16
Jalen Hurts — 6.14

2021

Trevor Lawrence — 7.40
Zach Wilson — 6.50
Trey Lance — 6.47
Justin Fields — 6.45
Mac Jones — 6.33
Kyle Trask — 6.19

2022

Malik Willis — 6.42
Matt Corral — 6.40
Kenny Pickett — 6.40
Desmond Ridder — 6.36
Sam Howell — 6.22

28 quarterbacks have received a higher grade than Patrick Mahomes between 2015-2022. He received the same grade that year as Nathan Peterman. So if anyone tries to tell you that Mahomes was a celebrated quarterback prospect going into the league, he wasn’t. He had fantastic physical tools but, as we’ll come onto in a bit, he was also seen as reckless and a system quarterback from the spread.

22 quarterbacks have been graded higher than Josh Allen since 2015. Allen’s grade (6.40) was higher than Mahomes’ (6.30) but the following quarterbacks were graded significantly higher than the pair: Blake Bortles (6.80), Teddy Bridgewater (6.80), Jameis Winston (7.00), Marcus Mariota (6.80), Jared Goff (7.00), Paxton Lynch (6.80), Carson Wentz (6.70), Mitchell Trubisky (7.00), Sam Darnold (7.10), Baker Mayfield (6.70) and Dwayne Haskins (6.70).

Players with traits typically faired well. This is one of the main reasons why I’m supportive of the 2023 quarterback class. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis have special physical tools. C.J. Stroud has a big arm, he can create as he showed against Georgia and his ability to throw with touch is at an elite level. Bryce Young lacks height but he has a clear natural quality and he’s incredibly creative. I have him ranked fourth out of the group simply because he lacks the prototype size and tools that typically excel but I’m still a fan.

Here are Lance’s grades for the 2023 class:

Bryce Young — 6.82
C.J. Stroud — 6.70
Anthony Richardson — 6.40
Will Levis — 6.34
Hendon Hooker — 6.23

He’s given Richardson the same grade as Josh Allen and Levis has a marginally better grade than Mahomes. All four players have a considerably lower grade than Paxton Lynch.

Doesn’t that at least tell us that lingering on perceived weaknesses is a mistake? That what we probably should be doing here is concentrating on what these players can become? When you have the size, massive hands and rocket arm of a Richardson or Levis — develop those tools properly and we’ve seen what the results can be.

I keep coming back to this quote from John Schneider when he was asked about quarterback scouting on 710 Seattle Sports:

“You have to be able to project where they’re going. You just can’t look at here’s A, B and C and that’s part of their game, you have to be able to say here’s A, B and C — what’s it going to look like at X, Y and Z? Where are they going to be? That’s the study, that’s the art, that’s the projection that’s involved.”

Too many people going into the 2017 draft slept on Mahomes’ physical talent. They didn’t project where he could go, they simply focused on what he wasn’t doing at Texas Tech.

Remember, Mahomes wasn’t listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft or an updated version in April, weeks before he was taken 10th overall. Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.

In Jeremiah’s final April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the 10th and 12th picks respectively. Kizer was the 52nd pick and flamed out of the league.

We’ve already highlighted that Lance Zierlein gave Mahomes a 6.30 grade and in his blurb he wrote, “Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.”

In an article on NFL.com written by Lance, Josh Allen received an unflattering review:

The scoop: “He scares me like he scares everyone, but he is easily the most physically talented quarterback (in this class). He will get drafted much higher than the level of his tape.” — AFC director of college scouting on Wyoming QB Josh Allen

The skinny: Listed at 6-foot-5, 233 pounds and with high-end arm talent, Allen is the prototype at the quarterback position. However, Allen’s production has been very pedestrian this season (181 yards passing per game, 55.9 percent completion rate, 12 TDs and 6 INTs in 8 games).

His accuracy and decision making are not where they need to be. In comparison, Carson Wentz had very similar physical traits and ability coming out of North Dakota State. He was the No. 2 overall selection of the 2016 draft, but his accuracy and football intelligence were exceptionally high. Coincidentally, Allen’s coach (Craig Bohl) helped groom Wentz at NDSU before being hired at Wyoming.

Allen might make a substantial leap forward with better talent surrounding him than what he’s working with at Wyoming. However, I’m not ready to say he’s a franchise quarterback at this juncture.

These are all things being said about Richardson and Levis currently.

I also like to keep highlighting what Bob McGinn’s anonymous scouting sources said about Mahomes and Allen:

On Josh Allen:

“He reminds me of (Blake) Bortles,” a second scout said. “Bortles lacked consistent accuracy and I see the same thing with Allen. Big-time athlete but really an inconsistent passer. I don’t see (Carson) Wentz. Some people do because they had the same coach (Craig Bohl). Wentz was a very mature, confident person.” Two-year starter. “He looks the part and a good athlete,” a third scout said. “But you talk about lacking in being a winning quarterback. He has a lot of bad tape (even) at that level. Somebody will still take him high. Are we going on what the tape is and the production and the winning? Or are we going on this guy looks like he should be an NFL quarterback and how he throws the ball?”

On Patrick Mahomes:

“People are trying to make that comparison because of his arm. He’s got a really good arm, but Favre was not as reckless as this guy.

“He’s crazy. He plays crazy. He’ll do anything. I don’t even think “gunslinger’ is the right word. He’s reckless.”

“He’s in ‘that offense’ and the way he plays, he’s very erratic,” another director from an NFC team said. “You can see the talent but he’s just so streaky and wild and reckless. He put a lot of balls up for grabs where you’re saying, ‘Man, what are you going to get with him?’

“He could (come on) but I don’t see it. I just don’t think he has the necessary qualities. He has no vision, no mechanics. He’s erratic as hell. He makes a lot of mistakes. It’s going to be a long (development).”

“Mahomes is the boom or bust guy,” said one of the two evaluators that expected him to fail. “He carries the biggest upside but he does have a bust factor. He’s just going to be inexperienced doing the things he’s going to do here.
“When you start looking at players that play off the script it concerns you, and a lot of what he does is off-script. In the NFL, when you get off-script is when you make big, big errors. It’s not as easy to make the off-script play on our level as it is at Texas Tech.”

I’m not guaranteeing that Levis and Richardson are set to become elite players and follow in the footsteps of Mahomes and Allen. That would be silly.

I’m just highlighting that we’ve been here before. Overlooking elite traits and focusing too much on what a player wasn’t in college, rather than what he can become in the NFL, has been a mistake made by teams and draft media alike.

I think a better approach to this would be to spend more time acknowledging the physical tools with Richardson and Levis, then discussing the best landing spots to enable them to succeed.

Context is important too.

Allen and Mahomes didn’t play for Ohio State or Alabama. They didn’t play for the new-fangled spread in Tennessee or Washington. They played for Wyoming and Texas Tech. Mahomes benefitted from the air-raid and put up monster stats, admittedly — but he was 12-13 in his last two seasons. Allen was given an incredibly challenging situation with no supporting cast.

Neither were throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson like Joe Burrow, that’s for sure.

Richardson and Levis were in a similar boat in college.

Florida is basically in a ground-zero rebuild. Despite that, Richardson showed gradual improvement as the season went on — finishing on a streak that included 16 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last six games against Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida State & Vanderbilt. When he missed the Bowl game, Oregon State hammered Florida 30-3.

Levis played behind one of the worst O-lines in college football. Here’s a reminder of the ‘sacks per game’ stats for a collection of teams featuring big-name quarterbacks in 2022:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

We have to accept that Levis facing 3.50 sacks per game is a world away from Bo Nix, Stetson Bennett, Michael Penix Jr and C.J. Stroud benefitting from less than a sack per game.

Levis also had a young group of inexperienced receivers to throw to with no star names. His running back had a suspension. He then got hurt, because of the bad O-line, breaking his toe. He played through that plus other injuries. It’s all detailed in this article from Jeff Howe at the Athletic, published today.

How would Bryce Young fair in that environment? Or Hendon Hooker? Or Michael Penix Jr? Or Trevor Lawrence? Or Joe Burrow?

Despite all of this, here’s what Levis put on tape:

Will Levis & Anthony Richardson can do things most QB’s can’t.

The draft is about projection. We’ll see today why both are worthy of the #5 pick. Seattle will be lucky if either is there.

The video below, on Levis, highlights this #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/HdoWAJJLyu

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) March 4, 2023

Difference making tools, when developed properly, can win you a lot of football games in the NFL. A great quarterback can cover a number of warts. Some of the best players in the league were viewed as inaccurate, reckless, not good enough and scary when they were coming into the league.

We’re hearing it all again this year.

Plenty of mistakes were made in 2017 and 2018. Will the same thing happen this year?

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We’re a fortnight away from the NFL draft. I wanted to do another mock reflecting the talk about Houston not taking a quarterback with the second pick. There are also reports that GM Nick Caserio could leave the team after the draft, adding another layer of intrigue to the situation.

I’ll have some Seahawks-related thoughts at the end of the mock, plus a seven-round projection.

The trades explained

There are three first round trades. Washington cough up their 2024 and 2025 first round picks to jump from #16 to #3 to select C.J. Stroud. Tennessee trades up from #41 to #31 with the Chiefs to select local hero Hendon Hooker. The Titans give the Chiefs their third round pick and get back Kansas City’s fourth rounder in return. And the Bills go from #28 to #20 in a trade with the Seahawks to get Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks get Buffalo’s third round pick.

First round

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
All of the momentum currently is behind Young being the top pick.

#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I’m going to take notice of the noise about Houston not going quarterback here but I remain confident Anderson will be the first defender taken.

#3 Washington (v/ARI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
I don’t think the Commanders are seriously investing their future in Sam Howell. Having appointed Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator, they might be waiting for their moment to strike in a trade. This would be an expensive jump including their next two first round picks but Stroud showed some Mahomes-level play against Georgia.

#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
I think the Colts settled on this pick a while ago and it’s why they didn’t make a serious move to trade up. Chris Mortensen says Levis is a top-five lock.

#5 Seattle — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think they’d love Will Anderson to last to this spot but if he doesn’t — Richardson has the physical talent Carroll and Schneider seek to invest in.

#6 Detroit — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Dan Campbell once said he wanted ‘kneecap-eaters’. Witherspoon is the biggest hitter in the draft.

#7 Las Vegas — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
There’s a bit of a ‘Patriots’ vibe to Gonzalez, so let’s put him with ‘Patriots west’.

#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Terry Fontenot is a big BPA guy and on a lot of boards, Robinson is going to be among the top 2-3 players in the entire class.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
A nagging injury, no testing and inconsistent tape makes this a better range for Wilson than the top-five.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I think Philly is the most likely spot for Carter.

#11 Tennessee — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
He’s the best offensive lineman in the draft.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
I think he’s a tweener and it’s hard to place where he starts in the NFL. Yet he might remind DeMeco Ryans of himself.

#13 NY Jets — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
Joe Douglas loves explosive linemen.

#14 New England — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
They have an unsettled situation on the offensive line and Johnson Jr has the length a lot of teams will like.

#15 Green Bay — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
A perfect match.

#16 Arizona (v/WAS) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
After moving down 13 spots, collecting a haul in the process, the Cardinals select a much needed pass rusher.

#17 Pittsburgh — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
The family ties are strong and Mike Tomlin’s the type of coach to pay attention to stuff like that.

#18 Detroit — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
He’ll only last this long because of his length and he’s too explosive to go much lower than this.

#19 Tampa Bay — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I think he’s better than some of the bigger name tackles.

#20 Buffalo (v/SEA) — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
The Bills jump the Chargers, Ravens, Vikings and Giants to make the kind of move their fans are calling for.

#21 Miami — forfeited
Tut tut.

#22 LA Chargers — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
Aaron Donald helped Brandon Staley create the #1 defense in LA. Why not try and do it again with Kancey?

#23 Baltimore — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
He could go a lot earlier than people think after a superb set of combine tests.

#24 Minnesota — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
Lightning quick and his best football is yet to come.

#25 Jacksonville — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
Amazing testing, great length, superb attitude, excellent Senior Bowl. ‘Ade Ade’ appears destined to go in this range.

#26 New York Giants — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
They are one of a handful of teams who might be eyeing JMS in this range — including the Seahawks.

#27 Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jerry Jones wants an explosive offense and Gibbs can help get them there.

#28 Seattle (v/BUF) — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
After trading down eight spots, the Seahawks add a pass rusher who could be their answer to Brian Burns. He trained with Seahawks pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan earlier this year before he accepted the job in Seattle.

#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
A lot of mocks have him going earlier but we should consider his injury status, lack of testing and the fact he started 2022 as Utah’s TE2.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
A brilliant combine puts the big Georgia blocker into the back-end of round one.

#31 Philadelphia — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
They lost both starting safeties in free agency so this is a good fit for team and player.

#32 Tennessee (v/KC) — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
The Titans trade back into round one in order to secure a local favourite and ensure they get the fifth year option on his contract.

Second round

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to reunite Kenny Pickett with his former #1 college target.

#34 Houston — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
The testing numbers are great but there’s no getting away from the fact he didn’t start at Iowa.

#35 Arizona — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
They get a big defensive lineman in round one, then a big cornerback in round two.

#36 Indianapolis — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
Colts fans want more explosive plays and Downs is my WR1 in this class.

#37 LA Rams — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
There’s a lot of buzz around Forbes going in this range.

#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
I’m going to assume they cut Al Woods in part because they felt very confident about replacing him.

#39 Las Vegas — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
The lack of playing time and below-expectation testing results moves Musgrave into the second round but he’s still a top-40 talent.

#40 Carolina — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Running the 4.5’s at pro-day shifts Johnston into the second round.

#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
He can help anchor the line but he’s also very capable of being an impact rusher.

#42 Kansas City (v/TEN) — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Another dynamic weapon for Patrick Mahomes.

#43 NY Jets (v/CLE) — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
Robert Salah succeeded in San Francisco because they pumped resource into the D-line.

#44 NY Jets — Cody Mauch (G/C, North Dakota State)
Another explosive lineman for the Jets, Mauch could fill the void at center.

#45 Atlanta — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
They need another edge rusher and Hall has the 10-yard split, agility testing and length to be really dynamic.

#46 Green Bay — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
He could play right tackle or inside immediately and be the eventual starter on the blind-side.

#47 New England — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
With the way they use their linebackers, this would be a good fit for Sanders.

#48 Washington — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
He’s such a fluid mover in the open-field it won’t be a surprise if he goes earlier than this.

#49 Detroit (v/MIN) — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
He plays like a Dan Campbell guy and has the testing results to be really, really good.

#50 Pittsburgh — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
Reportedly teams have soured on Jones due to his unwillingness to test at the combine or pro-day, plus the way he called it a week after one day at the Senior Bowl.

#51 Tampa Bay — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
It feels like a long time since Daniel Jeremiah labelled White the best defender in the draft.

#52 Miami — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
He is such an exciting player to watch and he’s had a great draft process.

#53 Seattle — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Wypler is an excellent scheme fit in Seattle.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s flying under the radar despite a terrific Senior Bowl and a good combine.

#55 LA Chargers — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I think Mingo’s a top-50 player in this class.

#57 Jacksonville — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Great personality, outstanding physical tools, huge potential.

#58 NY Giants — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee
He has genuine downfield ability but his combine testing was underwhelming.

#59 Dallas — Joe Tippmann (C/G, Wisconsin)
He can play anywhere along the interior.

#60 Buffalo — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
I wouldn’t take him this early but someone might.

#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
The Bengals love speed at cornerback.

#62 Chicago (v/CAR, SF) — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s a well-rounded, explosive running back.

#63 Philadelphia — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
He’s more athlete than football player currently.

#64 Kansas City — Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
He’s a Chiefs-type of draft pick — super athletic and versatile.

Seven-round projection for Seattle

#5 — Anthony Richardson (QB)
#27 — Will McDonald (EDGE)
#37 — Mazi Smith (DT)
#52 — Luke Wypler (C)
#83 — Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh)
#91 — Henry To’oTo’o (LB, Alabama)
#123 — Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
#151 — Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
#154 — Charlie Jones (WR, Purdue)
#198 — Jordan Howden (S, Minnesota)
#237 — Payne Durham (TE, Purdue)

Further thoughts on the Seahawks

My opinion isn’t likely to change over the next two weeks — I think the Seahawks will be very interested in Will Anderson and he might be their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board I don’t think they’ll pivot to Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson (although I wouldn’t rule out Wilson). I think the Seahawks are highly intrigued by Anthony Richardson and he’s the type of athlete they love to try and develop. If Anderson is gone and Richardson’s available, I think there’s a good chance they’ll take him.

I’m comfortable taking a high-upside quarterback and I think they will be too. Taking a shot to try and get the next Josh Allen is a perfectly understandable plan. We know John Schneider was a big admirer of Allen’s, so much so he was willing to trade peak Russell Wilson to draft Allen. If it doesn’t work out, so what? The upside potential of someone like Richardson succeeding is enormous. And really, he’s no more or less risky than drafting someone like Carter, who has a tremendous amount of baggage.

One other thing — you don’t have to copy the 49ers to beat them. Richardson’s athleticism and physical talent could be the antidote for San Francisco’s pass rush. He’s a player I don’t think 49ers fans want the Seahawks to draft. There’s something to be said for that.

There’s also something to consider here. The ‘out’ in Geno Smith’s contract doesn’t purely exist for the potential to draft a replacement quarterback. It’s to protect the team. Smith is due $32.1m in 2024. There’s another $15m in escalators to be earned. If he has an average season, you might not want to pay him $32.1m If he has a slightly better year than last year and hits his escalators, you might not want to pay him +$40m. So there’s a big call to be made here and having the option to transition to a far cheaper, high upside potential star in 2024 just gives the Seahawks another option to help make a decision on Geno’s deal.

In this mock they still come back and add two key defensive linemen with their next two picks, so it’s not as if the defense is being ignored. They also get a center who is an ideal scheme fit before the end of round two.

Abanikanda ticks every box they look for in a running back in terms of size and explosive traits. I can’t ignore how closely Carroll observed To’oTo’o at Alabama’s pro-day. McFadden is perfect to convert to guard, providing immediate depth and starter potential from 2024. Trice has the size, length and instincts they’ve been attracted to in the past and Jones ran in the 4.4’s (speed is key for Seattle at receiver) and he can handle kick return duties.

I like Howden on tape and he can fill the void left by Ryan Neal, while Durham gives the Seahawks a Y-tight end they can add for depth.

They’d have to go out and sign another defensive lineman after the draft (Poona Ford? Shelby Harris?) but that is achievable. The class mixes in players for the here and now and prospects for the future.

Let me know what you think in the comments section.

Today I was invited onto the 5th year option podcast to talk about the Seahawks and the draft. My bit starts 30 minutes in. You can check it out below:

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

Today I was invited onto the 5th year option podcast to talk about the Seahawks and the draft. My bit starts 30 minutes in. You can check it out below:

I’ll be jumping on with Robbie & Adam today at 4pm PT. Join in via the live chat on YouTube as we run through a variety of topics, two weeks before the draft.

I also wanted to touch on something briefly that’ll we discuss in the stream, see below the video embed for the notes…

There are a couple of things worth acknowledging that have appeared in the media this week. Firstly, Adam Schefter is being intriguingly open-minded about Houston not taking a quarterback at #2. The fact that he’s speaking in the way he is here is interesting. Lance Zierlein, who is connected in Houston, last week mocked Tyree Wilson to the Texans at #2. Now we’ve got Schefter bringing the possibility of a defensive pick at #2 to the table.

I’d say it’s time to start taking this very seriously. We already have been of course, having mocked Will Anderson to the Texans on March 9th.

Meanwhile, Michael Lombardi casually dropped out something I haven’t seen mentioned anywhere else. He claims, “everyone around the league knows (C.J.) Stroud has coachability and attitude problems“.

This hasn’t even been hinted at elsewhere. However, it would add a layer to the Houston chatter if it proved to be accurate. What if they’re not keen on Stroud for those reasons? Is there any issue for the Texans that Deshaun Watson’s agent, David Mulugheta, is also Stroud’s agent?

Zierlein had the Texans trading up from #12 to get Will Levis, a good scheme fit and a player who can start quickly, rather than take Stroud at #2.

I don’t think they’ll be able to do this unless they trade up to the #3 pick, which I think is unlikely. Chris Mortensen last week stated Levis won’t get out of the top-five and he seems like a shoe-in for the Colts at #4.

But what does it mean for Stroud?

If both he and Richardson are available at #3, I’d suggest it increases the chances of a trade down dramatically. It also raises the possibility that he might slip through the cracks to #5, especially if the Colts are determined to take Levis.

If you missed my appearance on VSiN’s Primetime show yesterday, don’t forget to check it out here. The more views the better…

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

On Tuesday I was invited on to VSiN Primetime with Tim Murray & Shaun King to discuss the Seahawks and the draft. Check it out below:

I wanted to offer some thoughts following the breaking news that Lions cornerback Jeff Okudah has been dealt to the Falcons for a fifth round pick. I think it could have some fairly significant ramifications for the draft.

— This creates a hole at cornerback for the Lions and increases the chances they’ll take the best one in the draft at #6. It might be time to pencil in Christian Gonzalez or Devon Witherspoon to Detroit.

— I’d previously expected the Lions to take the best pass rusher available at #6. Dan Campbell is a trenches guy. Adding even more to their defensive front felt like a good fit. I doubt he’s the type of coach who has much interest in working with Jalen Carter. Campbell likes passionate, football die-hards. He once said he wants “kneecap-eaters” on his team. Carter is, well, the opposite of that. However, I could well imagine him having interest in Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson. Is this move, potentially setting the team up to go cornerback at #6, indicative of the Lions expecting both Anderson and Wilson to be off the board?

— The Falcons had a need at cornerback. Okudah has had a massively underwhelming career so far and this doesn’t definitively solve that problem. However, it seems they’re willing to give him a year in a new environment to see how things work out. Thus, they aren’t very likely to spend a top-10 pick on a corner.

— What will Atlanta do? I’ve thought for a couple of weeks they might be the most likely to trade up to #3. Their support of Desmond Ridder at quarterback has amounted to basically saying, ‘he’s our starter this year’ with no definitive long-term commitment. Anthony Richardson would be an ideal fit for their offensive system. Arthur Blank, the owner, isn’t a conservative type content to settle. It wouldn’t be a surprise if solving this need today is a precursor to the Falcons moving up.

I listened to Lance Zierlein’s appearance on Brock & Salk this week. He said he’d spoken to three teams who rated Tyree Wilson higher than Will Anderson.

We’ll see how this plays out. I remain sceptical about Wilson. The frame is certainly intriguing and coaches, undoubtedly, will feel like they can develop his game. At the moment he’s a good bull-rusher who prefers to barge his way into the backfield. There’s no speed rush in his arsenal though. I’d struggle to justify taking a player in the top-five who can’t scream off the edge. There are also too many ineffective, passive reps. Not to mention he has an injury that has lingered for some time and he’s an older player overpowering younger linemen in a poor conference.

The argument, I suppose, is that Aldon Smith’s college tape didn’t leave you feeling like you were watching one of the best pass-rushers in his generation.

Zierlein is plugged into Houston and got both of their first round picks right a year ago. Could they seriously take Wilson at #2 as he predicted last week? I think any team, including Seattle, sitting within range should be ready to move up if C.J. Stroud gets out of the top-two.

If the draft goes Bryce Young, Wilson and Anderson to kick things off, that’ll create quite a twist at the top of round one.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)