Yesterday I used the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator to try and create an A+ draft for the Seahawks. The focus was on talent instead of need. I was happy with the outcome but some disagreed with a couple of picks.
I had Seattle taking Will Anderson at #5. I think Anderson would be a really good pick. You’re not getting a Bosa brother or Myles Garrett but I think his impact can be immediate and long lasting both on the field and in the locker room.
However, there is something I do think warrants noting. No quarterback.
The fanbase is split between those for and against selecting a quarterback early. I sense the split isn’t so much based on the actual players available. A case in point, nobody really spends much time discussing the cons of the defensive players touted to go early, yet the QB’s are often decried for their flaws.
Instead I think the thought process is based around a desire to try and win now versus a more long term approach. Improve the defense for 2023 and maybe the team can succeed? Spending the fifth pick on someone who wouldn’t play this year constitutes a waste in the eyes of many.
Others believe the Seahawks will never truly be competitive unless they strike gold at quarterback. Thus, investing in one of the top four available this year is necessary. The re-signing of Geno Smith and Drew Lock means that player can have a year to learn without any pressure to start. The pick might not pay dividends in 2023 but it could set the franchise up for the next decade and longer if managed properly.
Personally, I think the Seahawks should be thinking long term whatever they do. As time has passed it’s become largely forgotten that Geno had a fairly inglorious second half of the season. He certainly wasn’t helped by injuries on offense and a porous defense. However, habits that have hampered his progress in the past, returned after his hot start. The high number of turnover worthy plays for example — and the plays that did actually lead to turnovers.
A friendly schedule aided the Seahawks. It shouldn’t totally undermine the achievement of making the playoffs but it also needs to be acknowledged. Seattle was competitive against the 49ers for a half in the wildcard round before being blown away, brutally, by their division rivals. It was their third comprehensive defeat to the Niners.
I don’t think anyone should be fooled into thinking the Seahawks are close. They aren’t. And they likely won’t be that much closer with a haul of rookies coming onto the team and the addition of one significant, key free agent in Dre’Mont Jones. They can certainly improve and I think we should all set that low bar now. Can they look better and trend upwards, even if results-wise they stall or even regress?
I enjoyed watching Geno in 2022. Even in the playoff game I thought he showed well. He was certainly the least of Seattle’s worries during their uglier defeats, when the defense was a shambles.
However, I think people claiming the Seahawks have definitively found their long term quarterback are dabbling in wishful thinking. Smith has a ways to go yet.
Thus, I’m not convinced by two things. Firstly, Seattle’s ability to craft the kind of elite defense and running game combo that would allow Smith to point guard this franchise to glory. Secondly, Smith’s ability to cover for roster flaws in the way Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert can.
On the first point, I don’t think it’s often noted just how difficult it is to build a great defense. Especially in the modern day offensive-focussed NFL. The only one that really exists currently is San Francisco’s. They ranked first in defensive DVOA last year. The Cowboys, Patriots, Bills and Jets followed. I’m not sure the rest of the top-five compare to the Niners. Perhaps you could make a case for the Eagles, ranked sixth in DVOA, but they were slightly exposed in the Super Bowl.
A quick throat clearing — you’ll notice that none of those teams had a Vic Fangio inspired defensive system in 2022.
San Francisco started building their defense in 2014. That’s when they spent a first rounder on Jimmie Ward. A year later, their first two picks were Arik Armstead and Jaquiski Tartt. In 2016 they used their top pick on DeForest Buckner. The following year they used two more first round picks on defense — two busts in Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster (having famously, according to reports, not even scouted Patrick Mahomes fully because they were so determined not to draft a QB that year while waiting for Kirk Cousins to reach free agency — there might be a lesson there). They selected Fred Warner in 2018 and Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw in 2019. Then, having traded Buckner to the Colts, they immediately replaced him with Javon Kinlaw in 2020.
That’s seven first round picks between 2014-2020. If the Seahawks plan to try and mimic the 49ers by building a fantastic defense while plugging-in quarterbacks at will, shouldn’t we acknowledge that this could take the best part of a decade?
People often cite the shortening years left in Carroll’s career. Does he have another five years to take shots in the draft to accumulate the sheer volume of players needed to emulate the Niners?
If they invest so much stock in the defense, are the staff capable of scheming the players to success? Seattle’s defense has started every season poorly for years. They’ve spent season after season trying to fix things on the run. They’ve given away yards galore, through the air and more recently on the ground. They’re running a scheme that a number of teams are trying and equally struggling to execute.
It’s also worth pointing out that even the Niners, who many hope to emulate, still felt they needed to invest three first round picks in a super-athletic, high-upside quarterback.
On the second point, regarding Geno Smith — if the defense doesn’t reach the highest level, is he capable of compensating with his play? In a game against the Niners, or a playoff game, can he be the difference if the defense continues to struggle?
The top quarterbacks step up to the plate and drag their teams to victory in big games when other areas of the team are struggling. Can Geno do that? Is there a danger that the complementary football won’t be good enough to allow a non-elite QB to make you a contender, while the quarterback won’t be good enough to make up for holes on the roster?
The team and player deserve credit for the deal signed to keep Smith in Seattle. It keeps everything on the table for the Seahawks and if Geno succeeds, he’ll be richly rewarded through the incentives attached to the deal.
It’s also kind of being glossed over that many people were talking about franchise tags not so long ago. People were touting mega contracts worth between $30-40m and shouting ‘pay the man’ on Twitter. What actually happened? Smith’s people were able to gauge the market at the combine and immediately after, signed a contract to stay in Seattle that is the definition of ‘team friendly’.
He surely didn’t do that through generosity. He likely signed that deal because the heavily incentivised, non-committal deal was the best one on the table. Or at least, relatively close to the best one on the table. Was any other team even linked with interest in Geno Smith? I can’t recall his name being touted for anyone else. The Buccs maybe? That never seemed to go anywhere though.
Why is that? It appears the league is sceptical that he is in fact the real deal. They see a journeyman career, a fantastic first half of the 2022 season, then a slightly challenging second half.
Here’s what I wrote in an article on January 23rd, discussing Smith’s future:
Hugh Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.
Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.
That’s staggering.
If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.
I’m not even sure if this accounts for stuff like the pick-six against San Francisco in Seattle which was called back for a fortuitous penalty. That play was blown dead, after all. So it could be even worse than these numbers suggest.
Regardless, Smith had incredible luck when it came to turnovers this season.
Perhaps the Seahawks are mere beneficiaries of league scepticism, allowing them to land the bargain of the year? Or maybe they also retain some scepticism and want the ability to escape his contract in 2024, whether they draft a quarterback later this month or not?
Either way, I don’t think they’d be wrong to be sceptical. I’m sceptical. I hope Smith can be even better, confirming once and for all he’s a late-career success story rather than a one-season wonder. It’s possible though he will just be a flash in the pan. It’s hardly out of the question that in 12 months time the Seahawks will again have no contracted quarterback on the roster, no obvious future at the position, no top-five pick to address the matter properly and it could undermine everything else.
I can’t accept that a quarterback drafted at #5 would be a wasted pick. Especially if Will Anderson is already off the board. The idea that Tyree Wilson is the player to kick things up a notch, with his 75.1 PFF grade at Texas Tech (good enough for 184th among college pass rushers last year), seems ambitious.
Let’s say they draft Anthony Richardson at #5 instead. Now you have Geno Smith, busting a gut to keep his starting job. If he succeeds, you have two options next year. You can stick with Smith for another season. You can see what the trade market is for his services. You could even trade Richardson if needed, if Smith plays well enough to confirm once and for all he’s the bona fide future of Seahawks football.
Sure, you’re not getting an immediate return from your top pick in 2023. That’s where your other nine picks come in handy.
Let’s also remember — just because you take a defender at #5 doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to have an impact this year.
Travon Walker, the #1 pick a year ago, had 3.5 sacks as a rookie. If he was in this draft, Seahawks fans would be salivating at his athletic potential and calling for him to be picked at #5. A year on from being selected, people are already wondering if the Jaguars made a mistake. His PFF grade in his final year at Georgia (69.9) was worse than Tyree Wilson’s but it’s the same ballpark.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, the fifth pick last year and a player who was being touted for greatness from his first starting season at Oregon, had four sacks as a rookie.
The other top defender taken a year ago, Aidan Hutchinson, had a fantastic rookie season. But it goes to show that for all the talk of a quarterback pick for the Seahawks having no impact — there’s no guarantee a Tyree Wilson type would fly in and suddenly hit the ground running. He might be no more than a rotational cog, needing to work out the pro-game and develop his skills.
Look at Boye Mafe. We shouldn’t forget he cost the Seahawks the #40 pick. Nobody even really talks about him. We’re all sat here talking about drafting an edge rusher to pair with Uchenna Nwosu, just so Mafe and another second rounder, Darrell Taylor, can settle into rotational roles. Would it be that surprising if Tyree Wilson similarly struggles to have an early impact for a team that hasn’t done a great job delivering impact from its high picks at edge rusher?
If they take Wilson at #5 and he experiences growing pains like Walker — and Smith struggles at quarterback this year — what will people be saying in 12 months time? With a bleak quarterback outlook and a top-five defender who failed to sizzle in year one, I suspect there’d be vocal concern.
By taking Richardson you secure against what I think can be called a worst case scenario. If Smith struggles, you have an immediate and exciting alternative who was able to sit and learn for a year. The 2024 season would be hotly anticipated as we all wait to see if Richardson can be as good as his physical talent suggests.
You wouldn’t have totally neglected the defense in the 2023 draft either, thanks to the picks at #20, #37 and #52 providing ample opportunity to improve the unit. You could realistically go into next year with some optimism.
You also create options for the future. As mentioned, you could shop Smith or even Richardson if Geno played brilliantly in 2023. If Smith plays so well that in a year you regret taking a quarterback early, I’m not sure that’s exactly a titanic problem to have. Oh no! You’ve been overly prepared at… the most important position in football. I’d say that’s certainly less of a headache than a Tyree Wilson ending up like Travon Walker, which I don’t think is unrealistic, while you have no future at QB if Smith fails to play at a great level.
I also appreciate there are various strands you could discuss here. If Smith excels and a player like Wilson plays more like Hutchinson than Walker, all will be well with the world.
I fear, though, that the Seahawks are about to embark on a mission to return to contention that is very difficult to execute. Or at least that people are touting such a plan, without offering the balance of considering why it might fail and why other plans also carry merit. The feeling being, they can essentially plug-in quarterbacks at will, create a brilliant defense and running game and everything will click.
If that’s their aim, I’d argue it’s easier to create a fantastic supporting cast surrounding a point guard QB if the quarterback is on a rookie contract. Geno’s contract is generous for 2023 but it’s worth, at its cheapest, $31.2m in 2024. They could easily, if they’re not careful, end up with an expensive quarterback and an inadequate defense to try and play the brand of football they crave. That would just lead to an average team with very little in the way of excitement for the future. Basically, they’d be another Minnesota Vikings. At best.
I’m not confident in Seattle’s ability to build a great defense when they end up getting themselves into situations like spending $40m on the safety position and struggling to fill out their defensive line with what little is left. After years of rough starts, failing to tackle properly, struggling to create consistent pressure, performing badly against the run and being too easy to play against — I need to see major, consistent improvement to believe it.
I don’t think drafting a quarterback at #5 is the only answer. As I keep saying, I think Will Anderson would be a good pick. He’ll only be available, too, if the quarterbacks go #1-4 in the draft — making them unavailable anyway. That’s besides the point though. Anderson’s tenacity, power, alpha mentality and college production hint at a player who can be very good at the next level. I’m not sure he’ll be able to copy DeMarcus Ware’s career but the comparison passes the eye test.
If Anderson is gone though, to me it makes little sense to pivot to Tyree Wilson — a 23-year-old who failed to make a mark at Texas A&M, received middling PFF grades for his performance in the Big-12, hasn’t shown an ability to provide a speed-rush and has a large number of snaps where it feels like he’s going through the motions.
The size and length are very intriguing and he has splash plays on tape. I’m sure coaches will look at his frame and believe they can work with what he has physically and turn him into a more impactful, consistent player. I don’t want to keep going back to this point but that’s exactly what the Jaguars thought about Travon Walker. The difference is, we knew what Walker’s upside was due to his outstanding combine performance. We have no testing numbers for Wilson because he’s still recovering from a foot injury.
Wilson is a classic case of a good highlights video but the game tape is far less exciting. That won’t dictate his success or failure at the next level but it tempers any excitement you might have if/when his name is called.
John Schneider mentioned last week the Seahawks had travelled to give someone a private workout. It was almost certainly Wilson. Schneider admitted previously they were due to attend the Texas Tech pro-day before heading to Gainesville to watch Anthony Richardson. They didn’t go to Texas Tech after it was announced Wilson couldn’t work out. It was also revealed that Wilson has been meeting with most of the top-10 teams in the last week.
It’d be an underwhelming pick. I fear the Seahawks will settle for it, though, if Anderson is off the board. The reports and mocks projecting Wilson at #2 or #3 and having him ranked ahead of Anderson in some cases worries me a bit. I think it’s overthinking things — just as the Jaguars did a year ago selecting Walker over Hutchinson. But it suggests there’s a lot of interest among decision makers and that if Wilson’s there at #5, they’ll trot him out with the usual chatter of friends in the league claiming it’s a great pick.
There’s nothing philosophical about my stance. I’ve consistently said I’m very comfortable going D-line or quarterback. I like Anderson. I was mocking Jalen Carter to Seattle before learning more about the adventure that has been his pre-draft process (not to mention the long list of reported issues at Georgia and a questionable love for the game).
I thought Joey Bosa was comfortably the best player in the 2016 draft. I thought Myles Garrett was the unquestionable no-brainer top pick in 2017. I thought Nick Bosa was clearly the elite player in his class in 2019. If a player of that ilk was available this year, I’d be banging the drum. Even without that level of player, I’m still making the case for Anderson.
I just think this is such a rare opportunity for Seattle that dismissing quarterback would be a mistake by the fans and more importantly the team. I’d happily take on whatever ‘risk’ it’d be to draft someone like Richardson. If he doesn’t become the next Josh Allen, I think it’s worth the shot to see if he can be. That would do more for Seattle’s Super Bowl prospects than anything else over the next 3-5 years. If they take that chance and it doesn’t come off, I wouldn’t criticise the team. How could you? Your favourite team took a chance on developing the rarest of rare athletes and it didn’t pan out. Oh well, what’s next?
As they’ve been quick to point out — when are they going to be in a position like this again? They don’t have another franchise quarterback to trade for a haul of picks. They don’t have a collapsing AFC West team to root against every week, knowing with every loss it increases the draft position of a gifted first round pick.
After this year, the Seahawks will be left to their own devices — with limited cap space, limited trade stock and likely a pick outside of the top-10. It’ll be harder to draft a top quarterback. It kind of feels like now or never, short of one day being prepared to trade a massive sum to move up like the Panthers and Niners recently.
For what it’s worth I think the following probably sums up Seattle’s process this draft season:
1. When the season ended, having watched San Francisco essentially beat the Seahawks at their own game with defense and running game, the intention was to try and close the gap between the two teams by investing a top-five pick on a defensive star. They knew they had to make changes to the defensive line.
2. I think John Schneider and Pete Carroll probably shared that view, with Schneider also intrigued by the quarterback class. When he executed the Russell Wilson trade he was surely thinking ahead about the QB’s coming up in the draft. I seriously doubt they banked on Geno Smith being the future. Smith changed the situation somewhat but Schneider will have spent a lot of time on the quarterbacks and I think the top four, plus potentially Hendon Hooker, are suitably Schneider-esque to imagine he’d have a strong interest in them. Carroll will have his own thoughts on the group and might like some and not others.
3. The situation over the defensive players shifted thanks to Jalen Carter. There were enough concerns before his legal trouble and embarrassing pro-day. The Seahawks, I suspect, already had enough info to potentially take him out of consideration. However, even if they weren’t likely to draft him, someone else might before they pick at #5. I think that’s almost certainly not going to happen now, making it harder for Anderson to fall through the cracks unless a team trades into the #3 spot.
4. I think Anthony Richardson has caught Seattle’s attention. I think he’s done that with a few teams, which is why he has official-30 visits booked in with the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens. Carroll seems to have taken a shine to him. The player himself spoke glowingly about his meeting with the Seahawks at the combine. We’ve since had reports of Schneider having extensive conversations with Richardson’s agent, while Carroll had an audience with Billy Napier. The personality, charisma, unlimited physical talent and the massive upside — I think — is intriguing Seattle more than they possibly expected. Like I say, I don’t think they’re the only team experiencing this.
5. For a while I’ve thought this was going to come down to ‘who lasts to #5?’. Will it be Anderson or Richardson? I’ve seen people talking recently about Tyree Wilson, noting, fairly, that bigger players of that size (such as Aldon Smith) have played in a 3-4 at OLB. I must admit, it made me pause. They might just talk themselves into this. Then when I watch the tape, I’m reminded of my concerns. If they draft him, obviously I hope he succeeds at an extreme level. I do fear, though, that they might be so defensively focused that they take Wilson — enamoured by his size — and simply can’t elevate him to the level they hope. After all, Aldon Smith had Vic Fangio coaching him. The Seahawks might be influenced by Fangio’s scheme but they’ve shown minimal ability to execute it so far. Maybe it’s recency bias on my behalf but I have a horrible thought of Wilson being the 2023 version of Mafe — an older rookie losing reps to someone else, with Carroll fending off weekly questions about why he isn’t more involved.
I suppose this is all just a long-winded way to say I think it’s still important for the Seahawks to be open-minded about drafting a quarterback. Plus, I’m sceptical about Wilson but I’m admitting I should include him in any discussion about the #5 pick moving forward.
After all, as we’ve already said a numerous times in the last few weeks, they attended the Ohio State, Alabama, Kentucky and Florida pro-days. They intended to attend the Texas Tech pro-day too, during that little road-trip.
The players involved in those pro-days:
C.J. Stroud
Bryce Young
Will Anderson
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson
Tyree Wilson
Seattle’s pick is going to come from that group, I’m very confident about that. I think the road trip was deliberate. Rather than any convoluted smokescreen, I suspect the Seahawks were simply doing manageable homework on a very important pick and getting every scrap of information they can. Unlike when you’re picking in the 20’s, you can narrow your focus to five pro-days because only four players will leave the board before you pick. You can’t attend 35 pro-days to cover all the possibilities with the 25th pick.
With the expectation the first two picks are Stroud and Young, and Levis being drafted by the Colts, Anderson or Richardson is realistic and is my preference for the Seahawks. Wilson could also be an option but an underwhelming one, at least for me.
Tomorrow I’m going to attempt to create another A+ draft — with a quarterback taken at #5.
If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)
