Category: Front Page News (Page 19 of 367)

What if there is some chaos at the top of round one?

April 7, 2023 /

Bryce Young, future #1 overall pick?

There are certain reporters who make you sit up and take notice. Especially when they declare something. Chris Mortensen is one of those reporters. He’s not a talking head, offering an opinion. For him to come out and flat out state what he did in the video below is worth paying attention to:

His ESPN colleague Adam Schefter did something similar when the Panthers moved up to the #1 pick. Schefter said Bryce Young was the player they traded up to get.

He qualified his statement by saying Young could end up being Carolina’s version of Mac Jones. The 49ers traded up to #3 in 2021 with the intention of selecting Jones — an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. Between executing the trade and making the pick, they’d talked themselves into taking Trey Lance instead.

It’s possible, therefore, the Panthers experience a similar shift in opinion. You can imagine why, given the way C.J. Stroud has conducted his pre-draft process. That game against Georgia will get a fair few viewings over the next three weeks.

I got the sense during my interview with Scot McCloughan that the unnamed quarterback he spoke about in the most glowing terms was Young. The size and durability concerns are legit and will be discussed by every team thinking of drafting a quarterback early. The natural talent, football intelligence, accuracy, leadership and ability to carry a team are most definitely not in question.

It simply comes down to the size and frame, at a time when players like Tua Tagovailoa are at a career crossroads due to the number of concussions and other injuries he’s experienced. Meanwhile, there are three other hulking, prototype athletes in the same class. There’s no right or wrong answer here because it’s impossible to predict how Young will translate. I’d say any opinion is justified, for or against.

For the purpose of this article, let’s say it is Young who goes first overall.

Lance Zierlein’s latest mock draft was an interesting read. Lance is based in Houston and whether it’s through sources or simply understanding the Texans mindset, he’s had a lot of success projecting their moves. For example, he got both of their first round picks correct in his final mock draft a year ago.

He had the Texans taking a defensive lineman at #2 in his new mock.

Not Will Anderson.

Tyree Wilson.

It’s worth noting at this point that Lance rates Wilson very highly and the quarterbacks, not so much. Wilson is his #5 overall graded prospect. Stroud is only ranked ninth. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis aren’t even in the top-20. It’s possible that played a part in this projection.

I spoke to someone in the league recently who said Anderson would be “hands down the top defender taken”. That’s from the same source who told me last year’s quarterbacks were a bunch of third rounders and accurately confirmed exactly where the three top tackles would be drafted in the top-10 (he also had Lewis Cine as a fourth rounder, for the purpose of transparency).

The same source told me it was a ‘certainty’ four quarterbacks would go in the top-10 this year and it was very possible four go in the top-five.

Chris Mortensen, in the same broadcast where he claimed Bryce Young would be the #1 overall pick, also declared Will Levis wouldn’t get out of the top-five, indicating the likelihood of four very early picks at quarterback.

Even so, I want to consider chaos today. On March 9th I published a mock draft that had the Texans taking Anderson at #2, noting:

Everyone assumes they’ll go quarterback. DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco due to the D-line. GM Nick Caserio is from the Patriots way of doing things and they’ve always been happy to draft for scheme fit later. Anderson’s A+ character and talent could tempt the Texans to launch their new era with a different approach here.

Granted, I made that prediction with the thought that the Texans could try and sign Jimmy Garoppolo. They reportedly were in discussions with Garoppolo but he ultimately chose ‘Patriots West’ instead of ‘Patriots Texas’.

That they’ve only signed Case Keenum instead suggests to me the Texans are all-in on a quarterback at #2. They’ve signed a lot of veteran offensive players too — plus re-signed their left tackle to a massive extension. It feels like they’re setting the table for a rookie.

Even so, that rookie doesn’t have to be taken at #2. Zierlein had the Texans trading up from #12 to #7 to select Will Levis. If Levis is a top-five lock, as Mortensen claims, I’m not sure this tactic is going to work for Houston. If they want a quarterback they’re going to need to either trade back into the top-five, take Hendon Hooker at #12 or hope nobody else takes Hooker and then move back into the late first from the #34 pick.

It all seems very convoluted just to avoid taking Stroud at #2. Especially when defensive linemen will be readily available at #12 and #34.

I’ve wondered whether the Shanahan scheme, which is used to dealing with scheme fits at QB, might go cheap at the position. They could persevere with Davis Mills but that seems a long-shot for the long-suffering Texans fans eager for some excitement. Neither is there anyone worth waiting to take later on. I like Dorian Thompson-Robinson but he’s not a Shanahan type. The source I mentioned earlier described this QB class as the top-four, Hendon Hooker, then a bunch of six and seven rounders (for what it’s worth). The league really felt the blow of virtually an entire middle-tier of quarterbacks choosing not to declare.

Mac Jones trade? It would make sense if New England had a viable replacement lined up. I’m not sure Bailey Zappe qualifies. Again, is it really worth trying to sell that to Texans fans just to avoid taking Stroud?

Let’s run with it though. Carolina takes Young. Houston only has eyes for Young and pivots to Anderson rather than Stroud or Wilson at #2.

What then?

Arizona would be even more desperate to trade down. They’d be in a rotten position having to choose between a bad bargaining position and the aesthetics of a mediocre offer to trade out of #3, or taking a player (Wilson or a cornerback) who could be available later on.

This is why I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out the Seahawks having interest in trading up to #3. In that scenario, with Stroud available, why wouldn’t you try and jump the Colts? You have more stock than they do. The Cardinals would still pick in the top-five. In that situation, it would make most sense for Arizona to either move down to #4 or #5 or just say, to put it violently, ‘f-it let’s trade down into the mid-teens and get what we can’. Either way, they wouldn’t be in a great negotiating position with Anderson off the board.

If Stroud lasts to #3 — someone will make a move. Even with Anderson leaving the board, the chances of four of the top-five being quarterbacks remains likely, unless the Cardinals only drop to #4 or #5.

My prediction isn’t changing though. I still think it’ll be Stroud and Young in the top-two, whoever is taken first. Then it’ll come down to whether someone makes the move up to #3 or whether the Cardinals stick and pick Anderson.

The fact that Anthony Richardson is meeting with the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens is indicative of the intrigue in him. It won’t be a surprise if any of those teams ultimately move up.

The Colts, meanwhile, appear to be preparing to draft Will Levis. I think they’ve settled on that for a while, which is why they didn’t make a bigger push to get up to the #1 pick.

Ultimately I think for the Seahawks it comes down to this. Did someone move up for Richardson, pushing Anderson to Seattle at #5? If not, do they just pivot to Richardson?

As I wrote a couple of days ago, I think it’ll be a huge shock if the Seahawks were to take Jalen Carter — given the pattern of poor decisions he’s made that have led to legal issues, the reported concerns about his football character (including poor practise habits, lack of effort, difficulty to coach — basically doing what he wanted) and the lack of seriousness with which he’s taken his college career (April 2022 — ‘conditioning is my top priority this year’, December 2022 — admits he was embarrassed by his performance against Ohio State where he was struggling to remain on his feet he was so gassed, then the pro-day shambles).

I’ll just go back to what I said on Wednesday. Reportedly they took Kayvon Thibodeaux out of consideration in round one last year. It was reported by multiple people that teams were concerned by how often he talked about his ‘brand’ and money-making potential in the NFL. No other character issues were reported and like Carter, he was a fantastic talent at a key position of need. If that was enough for the Seahawks to not consider Thibodeaux in round one, it’s impossible for me to imagine they’ll look at the extensive baggage surrounding Carter and think ‘that’s our guy’.

We’ll see what happens but I think Carter will be taken at #9 by Chicago or #10 by Philadelphia, with the Eagles the most likely suitor. Detroit could be a wildcard but looking at the players they’ve taken since the current regime took over — they seem to want glass-eating all-football types.

I think, like the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens, the Seahawks have had their heads turned by Richardson. I sense they’re intrigued. They’re open to the possibility. Their ideal pick — and I’ve thought this for a while — is probably Will Anderson. I do think, however, that John Schneider will be enamoured by this QB class. That’s why I’ve been projecting Anderson or Richardson at #5 — whoever lasts.

If the Texans pull off a stunner and take Anderson at #2 — and if Stroud lasts to #3 — I think the Seahawks should be on red alert to pounce.

Ian Rapoport mentioned this week that the Texans’ priority in this draft is to add difference making talent. I listened to that and thought, that should be Seattle’s priority too. I keep seeing people touting trading down, getting even more picks, having more picks next year. Eventually you need to acquire some stars — and as the Seahawks know, the top players don’t tend to last into the 20’s.

Having a whole bunch of picks is great. It’s nice to add talent at a variety of spots, look at the roster and feel various holes are filled.

That’s not often what it’s about though, is it? Ultimately when it gets down to the wire, it’s who is the healthiest team and who has the players capable of winning you a big game when it matters most.

The Chiefs roster has a few holes. Their defense lacks any stars. Yet they have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, an offensive line and a great offensive minded Head Coach. They’ve been to three Super Bowls. They were aggressive to get Mahomes, seeing through his well discussed issues in college and believing he had star potential.

The Bills would be thoroughly average without Josh Allen. They had to be aggressive to trade up and get him.

San Francisco spent a decade building their defense and even then, without Nick Bosa it’d be half as dangerous. Their offense clicks because they have a genius working the controls. This isn’t easy to copy.

The Eagles needed their GM to go on an unprecedented run of success, highlighted by his incredibly aggressive and highly productive trading strategy.

I’m not sure the Seahawks can build a Championship roster ticking off needs by having the most picks possible. They have good players and will likely acquire more this year. How many elite players do they have? Who on Seattle’s roster is a top-five at their position currently?

Clearly the Seahawks have holes to fill and they’ll do that with 10 picks. They also need to find at least a couple of players who end up being elite, top-level, feared players who drive you forward.

You aren’t getting that trading down from #5 and taking Peter Skoronski. You aren’t getting that from taking Tyree Wilson at #5 simply because he’s big, long and plays on the defensive line.

If you get a sniff at Stroud, go for a full nostril instead. Richardson has the potential to be special. I don’t think Anderson is necessarily a ‘special’ talent but I think he can be very, very good and improve the team in a multitude of ways with his attitude and leadership.

Carter would be on this list too but for me, you simply cannot trust him to deliver on his potential. He is telling you with his actions that he can’t be trusted. The only thing worse than squandering this rare top-five pick on an average player would be blowing it on someone who is giving off all the signs he’s not in any way, shape or form, taking this process and his career seriously.

Some risk is required here to elevate this team to the next level. Taking the right risk is key. Moving up to #3 if C.J. Stroud is available? Worth it. Hoping Will Anderson can elevate your defense to another level? Worth it. Taking a shot on developing Anthony Richardson, knowing what his physical talent is? Worth it. Thinking Jalen Carter is going to completely transform himself with a guaranteed $30m in the bank, playing on the other side of the country, with months between the draft and his first training camp? That’s one to sit out.

If I’m right and it’s likely that one of Anderson or Richardson will be there at #5 — it’s a great opportunity for this team. They will have four more picks in the first three rounds, with a chance to acquire more, to get the best of both worlds — a top talent in the class plus filling out the roster.

This isn’t just about 2023. It isn’t just about five years down the line.

It’s about working towards a Championship team. Sometimes you have to consider the long and short term. That’s what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and the Bills with Allen. It took years for the 49ers to grow into what they are. The Eagles didn’t just draft Jalen Hurts in round two and they were off. That was a process that took time.

The reason Seattle might draft a QB is no different, really, than the reason why they might draft a tight end. It’s about thinking about today and tomorrow.

That’s the essence of the draft.

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Why the mock drafts are wrong about the Seahawks

April 5, 2023 /

Future Seahawk? Unlikely

As we edge closer to the draft, we’re starting to see a consensus among prognosticators. Todd McShay, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Renner and others have the Seahawks picking Jalen Carter at #5.

Earlier today I watched this video featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms, discussing Seattle’s options. They concluded Carter would be the pick in Seattle and that a quarterback wouldn’t be.

It’s always best to avoid guaranteeing things will or won’t happen. You can never be 100% sure. Usually it’s a surefire way to end up with egg on your face, writing an article explaining why you got things so emphatically wrong. I’m always happy to admit when I’ve called something poorly, with my Geno Smith video last year a good example of that.

That said, I’m not going to need to do a Jalen Carter video. I’m comfortable saying he won’t be Seattle’s pick at #5. Book it. Put it in ink.

I’m not 100% sure. I am 99.5% sure, though.

Regulars will be bored of me talking about this. Trust me, I’m bored too. I’m going to go over a lot of old ground again here. Yet with the majority of high-profile mocks pairing Seattle with Carter recently, I think it’s worth returning to this subject.

I’ll start by saying I appreciate why this projection keeps being made. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have developed reputations as risk takers. They’ve taken big swings. They’ve made controversial moves, most notably drafting Frank Clark.

I understand why someone who doesn’t follow the Seahawks religiously would conclude that Carter to Seattle makes sense. Good ol’ Pete will be prepared to take a shot. He’ll coach him up and get him going. No problemo.

This isn’t reflective of where the Seahawks are at, though. In the case of Carter, I also doubt they’ll want to take on this particular challenge.

We’ve heard a few times now that the Seahawks last year renewed their commitment to character when it comes to drafting. The words ‘without compromise’ have been used to describe their approach to character.

Here’s what Schneider said about their celebrated 2022 class back in November:

“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”

Here’s Pete Carroll on how character played a big part in the players they selected:

“It was really important to us. Their character and their confidence in themselves, the ways they came across with that. We were picking them for those spots hoping it would work out and it did. Perfect group of guys in the makeup and the mentality that they brought to us.

We’re always trying to get more accurate in what we’re doing and we really find that the character and makeup part of it was crucial and we continue to look at that.”

Schneider has talked openly about making mistakes in the past. In fairness, that isn’t just about character. He’s discussed drafting players who weren’t up to the challenge of competing against the superstars in the locker room. Players were in awe of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, not motivated to take their jobs.

It’s also inevitable that when any reference is made to learning from mistakes, Malik McDowell immediately springs to mind.

The warning signs were there with McDowell — a top-10 talent who sank deep into round two amid a flurry of reports about his character, attitude, personality, dedication to his craft and college consistency.

When Schneider called McDowell to tell him he was being selected, he did so with a warning: “Don’t forget our conversation, OK?”

The Seahawks knew they were selecting a rare physical talent with the tools to be great. They also knew they were taking a gamble. A big gamble. In the second round, three years removed from a Super Bowl run, they felt that chance was worth taking.

McDowell never played a down for the Seahawks.

When I spoke to Scot McCloughan recently, I asked him about the decision making process when weighing up risky picks like McDowell. His answer was telling and important:

“I won’t say any names but there’s a player this year who is highly, highly, highly talented at a position that’s hard to find. I’ve been there before and I’ve taken that player. I learned early, I didn’t listen to it because the talent outweighed the character but my first boss told me if you make one exception, you’ll end up with a team of exceptions. I never understood what that meant until I got older.”

“Everybody makes mistakes. I’ve made many of them. It’s the ones who keep making the same mistake over and over that really worry you.”

I don’t know who the player is he referred to in this quote but the point about a pattern of mistakes is important. There was a pattern with McDowell. There’s a pattern with Carter. From the reported maturity concerns, the clear and obvious conditioning issues and now the legal trouble.

McDowell and Carter are different players with different issues. Yet for all the talk of learning lessons, it wouldn’t be much of a learned lesson to go down this road — with a much more valuable, expensive and high-profile pick.

Seattle’s experience with McDowell, you’d think, should be enough to sit out this next game of roulette. Everyone deserves a mulligan. The Seahawks have had theirs.

Further to that, Dave Wyman (who hosts a weekly show with Schneider) reported a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were unwilling to draft Kayvon Thibodeaux in round one last year. Thibodeaux’s character issue consisted of a keenness to talk, non-stop, about his ‘brand’ and how much money he intended to make. If that was enough to remove him from Seattle’s first round board, it’s hard to imagine Carter is going to be considered.

Really, that should be enough right? Assuming that information on Thibodeaux is true, are we really going to imagine a situation where Thibodeaux’s entrepreneurial ambitions were too problematic but Carter’s reported maturity, conditioning and legal issues are not?

Let’s take the conditioning angle in isolation. We identified a couple of months ago that Carter, when quizzed last April about his priorities for the season, said his #1 aim was to improve his conditioning. He reiterated that twice during the press conference and it was acknowledged by his Head Coach Kirby Smart as necessary.

We could see clearly on tape that these words were not followed up with actions. Carter admitted he was ’embarrassed’ (his words) by his performance against Ohio State, where he looked exhausted and was visibly struggling to get through the game.

Whatever aim he had to improve his conditioning, it seems little was done about it.

Provided Carter was ready for gameday, it wasn’t really viewed as a problem at Georgia. We’re talking about a player so talented that he can live off natural ability.

We saw, however, what happened when the pace quickened and the level upped against the Buckeyes. Suddenly, talent alone wasn’t enough. He’s going to need to take things seriously. When people talk about maturity and Todd McShay talks about whether you’d want him in your locker room, this is part of the issue.

McShay added to what he’s reporting on today’s ‘First Draft podcast’:

“There’s a lot of football character stuff. Practise habits, not giving great effort in practise, talking back to coaches, coaches not being able to coach him hard. There’s a lot of that stuff and it’s all based on seven different sources that I have so I’m not making anything up… You as an organisation have got to figure out can we deal with this?”

The perception is Carroll and Schneider would love to to get such a rare talent in the building and try to work him into a position where he can succeed. Let’s go back to Schneider’s review of the 2022 class:

“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”

If that was the aim for the draft a year ago — and it led to a class broadly considered an A+ group — it flies in the face of realism that they would follow it up by using a top-five pick on someone like Carter. You’ll need to mould him into a pro and change his entire approach to preparation, conditioning and what it takes to succeed at the highest level.

This is why I think Will Anderson will be so highly regarded by the Seahawks. He is a fantastic scheme fit for the 3-4, he has A+ grades in terms of character, family background, the way he speaks to team mates and the media and he’s an alpha who brings 100% energy and physicality to every series.

That’s a Seahawk. If he lasts to #5, he’ll probably literally be a Seahawk.

You cannot make these arguments for Carter. Bring it every series? Is he even going to bring himself to every lifting session? I’m not being flippant, I’m being serious.

Carter isn’t going to be the pick. The Seahawks might actually appreciate that the mainstream media are focusing on that angle as much as they are.

Someone will take him early. There’s been a lot of fuss around Drew Rosenhaus’ announcement that he won’t meet with any teams not picking in the top-10. Frankly, I think it’s a reasonable tactic from the agent. Better to get in front of the story if most of the league has little interest in meeting (and therefore drafting) his client. Now it sounds like bravado rather than damage limitation.

The team that selects Carter will have a GM in a secure position. That GM will have money in the bank whereby he can afford to risk getting a big decision wrong if the pick busts.

I’m going to mock him to the Eagles at #10 in every projection unless new information emerges. Howie Roseman is a hero to Eagles fans after building two Super Bowl teams in recent years. He already has a Super Bowl roster on his hands, so it’s a low-risk gamble for him. This is an extreme bonus pick for the Eagles. A shot to nothing, really.

Could the Bears take him? Maybe — but they also have a new GM and are rebuilding. I think the Lions are a wildcard. The Eagles will ultimately be my prediction, though.

Character is another reason why I think the Seahawks will also be very intrigued by the quarterbacks. I don’t buy the rhetoric expressed by Florio and Simms that they’ll be worried about undermining Geno Smith. The Geno contract was structured for a reason. It’s a beautifully crafted deal full of incentive without any long-term commitment. With the way Smith’s 2022 season ended, they’re right to keep their options open on a player who was a journeyman until last year.

All four of the top quarterbacks have the competitive attitude and high character that Carroll and Schneider are looking for. Three of the quarterbacks are physical marvels with outstanding upside. The other is being described in the highest terms for his character and talent.

Questions about the future at QB throughout the season? They won’t worry about that. This is the team that spent 14 months living with a Wilson trade saga in the media. They wrote-off millions on a Matt Flynn contract. They’ve handled noise.

I think too much of this draft season has been filled discussing whether the Seahawks are prepared to draft a quarterback. I think it’s fairly evident they are. Now it’s just a case of whether they actually will.

I don’t think the last few months have been one big lying session.

I don’t think they’ve been fibbing about the importance of character in their draft decision making. The 2022 draft is evidence enough of them putting their money where their mouth is, plus the report on their lack of interest in Thibodeaux.

I don’t think they’ve been pulling a fast one, telling everyone they’re monitoring the quarterbacks closely and might take one when they have no intention of doing so. If they were willing to trade Russell Wilson to the Browns in 2018 simply in order to replace him with Josh Allen, or draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they already had prime-Wilson, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t use a rare top-five pick on a quarterback in this draft if Schneider really likes one or more of the group.

When they say picking fifth overall is a rare opportunity they’re excited about — I think they mean it. They’re hopefully never going to be in this position again.

I don’t think they’re as eager to trade down as some believe. Trade down for what? To get even more than the haul of 10 picks they already have? Just to select a guard, running back, tight end or spend a high pick on a cornerback for the first time ever? To get stock in 2024 that they hope will be as good as the top-five pick they already possess?

Thankfully we only have to wait three weeks to find out the truth but I still think it’ll be fairly straight forward in the top-five.

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young will be the top-two picks, with the order to be determined. I think it’ll be Stroud at #1.

Then the draft hinges on the Cardinals. It’s highly possible a team trades up for one of Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Arizona needs stock to fill out their roster, after a disastrous free agency period. They’re basically in rebuild mode.

If no sufficient offer comes forth, they’ll almost certainly take Will Anderson. That would be an excellent pick because he has talent, character and can help reset the culture in Arizona. Yet increasingly it feels like someone is going to trade up for Richardson. There’s a reason why Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee are all having official-30 visits with him.

I do think the Seahawks will consider moving up too. They seem to have taken a real shine to Richardson. There’s a reason why Schneider was, according to Corbin Smith, chatting for considerable time to Richardson’s agent at the Florida pro-day, with Carroll having an audience with Billy Napier. It just feels like, whether they ultimately draft him or not, they’re intrigued.

If Arizona sticks and takes Anderson at #3, I would expect Will Levis to go to the Colts. Indianapolis needs a 2023 starter. Levis is better prepared to do that. I don’t know why people who were mocking Levis in the top-five two weeks ago are suddenly dropping him into the teens without explanation. I think it’s that time of year where one prognosticator does one thing and everyone copies. I appreciate why some teams won’t like Levis as an option but I think the Colts and Seahawks will be very prepared to select him considering who their GM’s are, their preferences, and the fit (Levis’ readiness to start for Indianapolis and success within Seattle’s scheme at Kentucky).

In the scenario where picks #3-4 go Anderson/Levis — I would expect the Seahawks to select Richardson at #5.

Anderson or Richardson. Worst case scenario, Levis.

Either way, a win-win-win for the Seahawks.

As for the rest of their picks — I think a few things. Firstly, there’s room for a skill-position pick like we saw a year ago with Ken Walker. That’s represented a ton in mocks with Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the trendy picks. I think receiver could be an option but see Josh Downs as a more likely fit (or Jonathan Mingo on day two). They might prefer to invest in tight end due to the quality of the class and the need that will be present in 2024.

The ‘edge’ rusher group is not as good as some people are suggesting. There are a lot of names but most are day three types. It’s a position you have to strike early. If it’s not Will Anderson, I would expect Will McDonald to be an early target. Keep an eye on Derrick Hall too as he fits the profile perfectly that Seattle likes at the position. If they can’t get to the key names at the top, they might wait until later for someone like YaYa Diaby — who is having an official-30 visit.

Center will almost certainly be an early target with one of John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler seemingly destined to end up in Seattle.

Bodies are needed up front on defense and the Seahawks are very aware of that. Let’s remember though — this has often been a mid-round target. It won’t be a surprise if they see players like Cameron Young, Byron Young (Alabama), Jaquelin Roy and others as good quality snap eaters in the middle rounds, meaning they can focus on other areas early.

The #20-40 range could be a good area to add another player who can flip between three and five-technique to provide extra pressure up front.

It’s also a deep class at safety, full of aggressive, physical players and team captains. I think they’ve worked out they can comfortably replace Ryan Neal with a rookie drafted between rounds 3-5 — saving money.

And what do these players have in common? Anderson, the quarterbacks, Downs, Schmitz, Wypler, Byron Young, Hall, the safeties — high character, mature, pro’s before they’re pro’s.

When the 2023 draft is complete, I’m certain we’ll be looking at the class and acknowledging how important character was when it came to Seattle’s picks.

No Georgia defensive tackles will be included…

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Updated horizontal board: 3rd April

April 3, 2023 /

I’ve added a few players to my horizontal draft board and tweaked some grades. You can see it in full here, just click on the image to enlarge:

I will do one more update to the board before the draft.

The ‘first round grades’ I’ve given are defined as legit first rounders who would be taken in that range in any draft. The players in the second tier (R1-2) are players I’d be very prepared to take in round one this year, albeit without the legit top-grade.

Some notes:

— I think Josh Downs is the clear WR1 in this draft. I think he’s a top-15 prospect overall. It’s mostly an unimpressive receiver class and that might make it hard for the Seahawks to address their need at WR3. Equally, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took someone like Downs earlier than people expect. My WR2 is Jonathan Mingo. I’ve been banging the drum for him for months and finally it seems like he’s getting some attention. I’ve dropped Quentin Johnston after a disappointing pro-day.

— It’s just so easy to like the top tight ends. They have a great combination of blocking ability and traits matching the top players at the position. We’ve identified the need to run well in the short shuttle and the 10-yard split if you want a physical profile matching the best in the NFL. That’s what this group has. They also complement pass-catching ability with a willingness to do the ugly side of the game in the trenches. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the Seahawks take a tight end in the first two rounds. Otherwise you risk missing out. They can afford a ‘luxury’ pick for the future with one of these 10 selections. It could also produce a situation where you can trade Noah Fant after the draft to save $6.5m.

— I’ve moved Darnell Wright up to a legit first round prospect. That means he’d go in round one any year, per my own grading. He’s had a complete off-season. Terrific Senior Bowl. Explosive, athletic testing. Excellent combine drills. His tape is superb — particularly the way he locked-down Will Anderson. The other thing to mention though — remember that Will McDonald had success against him at the Senior Bowl. That wasn’t so much a knock on Wright as it was evidence of McDonald’s quality. If the Seahawks don’t take Anderson with their top pick, McDonald could be firmly on their radar — possibly at #20.

— Are there a lot of ‘edge’ rush names in this draft? Yes. Is it a good ‘edge’ rush class? No, not really.

— I’ve moved Tyree Wilson down to a ‘prepared to take in round one this year’ grade. I love his size, frame and ability to barge his way into the backfield. After re-watching his film though, he’s too inconsistent. He doesn’t win off the edge with speed. There are flashes on tape that get you excited but there’s also a lot of mediocre snaps where he goes through the motions. We don’t have any testing numbers to gauge upside. I think he’s a good prospect who has become a bit overrated as a top-five projection.

— I thought it was really interesting what John Schneider said about the nose tackle position last week. Basically, he suggested if you can play nose in college you can do it in the NFL. He didn’t place a big emphasis on it — making me wonder if they’ll take a random ‘big bodied’ player later in the draft who can soak up the needed snaps without a big investment. It’s why I think Jaquelin Roy might be a key target — he played a lot of snaps at LSU. But they might wait until day three to address this need.

— They’ve typically waited until the middle rounds to draft D-liners. Part of me wonders whether they’ll wait until the late second, third and fourth round to add youth and snaps to their defensive front. Cameron Young, Byron Young and Moro Ojomo are all very good mid-round options. It’s still a great thought to imagine Adetomiwa Adebawore, Calijah Kancey or Keion White disrupting from the front — and Zacch Pickens, Keeanu Benton and Mazi Smith remain good options too. If they did take Will Anderson at #5 — part of me wonders what it’d be like to see a pass rush featuring Anderson and Kancey. The lack of length could be seen as a problem with Kancey though.

— The cornerback class lacks the top-five talent it had a year ago but look how thick it is. I recently watched Corey Trice at Purdue and think he has excellent potential as a mid-round option. His team mate Reece Taylor isn’t bad either. LSU’s Jay Ward looks like a classic safety-to-cornerback convert in Seattle, while Rezjohn Wright screams ‘Seahawks’ with his frame. If they’re inclined to take a corner, the fourth or fifth round is a really good range to get one of ‘their guys’ to coach up. If Devon Witherspoon lasts to #20, part of me does wonder whether they’ll be too tempted by his swagger and intense passion for beating the crap out of opponents.

— People are sleeping on the safety class (I used to be one of them). It’s deep, rich and talented. It’s not full of other-worldly athletes but it is full of kick-arse football players. I can see why Seattle released Ryan Neal from his tender. They can save money drafting one of these guys in the round 3-5 range. It’s also a class full of alpha’s with outstanding character. Just listen to them all speak in interviews. It’s so impressive. JL Skinner, Sydney Brown, Ji’Ayir Brown, Jammie Robinson, DeMarcco Hellams, Jordan Howden, Jerrick Reed — all players I’ve watched interview recently and been wowed with their maturity, confidence and focus. It’d be a shame to come out of this draft not picking from the position. There’s a lot of talent here.

I’m travelling to Dubai with my family today for a week in the sun. I’ll continue to write and will react to anything breaking. If I don’t reply immediately to questions, that’s why — but I will respond.

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Is Will Levis locked in to the Colts at #4?

April 2, 2023 /

Another day, another slice of speculation featuring the top-five in the draft…

This one makes sense for a few reasons (and has done for a while).

When the season ended and Chicago earned the #1 pick, the early frontrunner to trade up to #1 was Indianapolis. After years of trying various ageing veterans — and the firing of Frank Reich — it was finally time to invest in a young QB.

Even owner Jim Irsay blurted out his admiration for Bryce Young during a press conference, before pitching his relationship with the Bears as a pathway to a deal.

The Colts didn’t move up though. As time passed by, it felt increasingly like they weren’t even in the running.

Sticking at #4 appeared to be a statement that they were comfortable with the top-four quarterbacks. They were guaranteed to get the third or fourth QB. If they graded all four similarly, there was no pressure to move up (unlike Carolina, who were picking ninth).

The other thing to consider here is the Colts need someone who can play now. They don’t have a Geno Smith, Jared Goff or Jimmy Garoppolo bridge. They have Gardner Minshew. They might start Minshew in 2023 but they need someone who can realistically replace him at some point, or push to start immediately.

That isn’t Anthony Richardson. He needs time and ideally a redshirt year.

Levis, on the other hand, has been coached by two NFL offensive coordinators. He understands pro-concepts and language. He’s older and more mature. He’s also faced a ton of adversity at Kentucky, which will prepare him for the inevitable challenge that comes with transitioning to the pro’s.

I’ve seen some people argue that the Colts might trade down or take Will Anderson, then wait for Hendon Hooker. It’s a suggestion, I suppose, yet it feels unrealistic. For example — it’d only take one other team usurping them on Hooker to mean they end up with no young quarterback and no viable solution at the position. If they’re banking on trading up from #35 to get the Tennessee QB, it’d only take Tampa Bay sweeping him away at #19 and it’s game over. Or Minnesota at #24. Or even Seattle at #20.

Could they trade for Lamar Jackson after the draft? Sure — but how does that work? The Ravens will likely match any off-sheet put in. If you try and negotiate with them separately on a trade, how much will that cost? Especially given the Ravens would be left with a black hole at the position with the draft and free agency in the rearview mirror.

Unless they move up to #3 and are prepared to sit Richardson or start him immediately, it just feels very likely the Colts are comfortable selecting Levis. If they weren’t, I’m pretty sure they would’ve been more aggressive to move up by now. Or they would’ve made more of a push for Lamar Jackson, or they would’ve signed (or traded for) a bigger name veteran such as Garoppolo.

This assumes Levis even reaches #4. I think there’s going to be quite a bit of variety among teams in terms of quarterback rankings. Some will be put off by Bryce Young’s size. Some will be intrigued by Richardson’s physical upside, others will want a more ready-made player. The fact that Levis has worked in the McVay and Shanahan system will appeal. Let’s not forget that Houston is featuring the Shanahan offense.

Let’s just park that for a moment and imagine this goes as many expect, with C.J. Stroud and Young making up the top-two. If the Colts don’t feel obliged to move up to #3 because they’re comfortable taking Levis, what then?

It comes down to what we’ve been suggesting for a long time. Does Arizona trade out of that spot for a team coming up for Anthony Richardson (or Levis)? Do the Cardinals stay where they are and select Will Anderson?

Either way, it has felt for weeks that Seattle’s pick could be Richardson or Anderson. Who lasts and do you like either enough to trade up?

Forget personal preferences for a moment. We’ve all heard by now who wants what.

To me it makes perfect sense that the Seahawks are deliberating between these two options (seeing who lasts to #5 or considering a trade up if they like a player enough to do so). Corbin Smith reported recently that John Schneider spent considerable time speaking to Richardson’s agent at Florida’s pro-day. He also noted that Pete Carroll had a private meeting with Billy Napier.

Smith joined Michael-Shawn Dugar of the Athletic in publishing a piece with a headline including the words, ‘Seahawks’ interest in top QBs is no smokescreen’.

It just feels like they’re really intrigued by Richardson. Is it really a surprise? He’s a physical phenom. We’ve never seen a player like this. Carroll and Schneider have always talked about looking for field-tilting ability. I’m not sure a player has entered the draft with Richardson’s level of upside at the quarterback position. There’s clearly been more polished, refined, pro-ready talents. But there’s so much to work with here. It’d be such a Carroll move to want to harness that talent and ability.

Then there’s Schneider — with his history of quarterbacks and reasonable reports of players he was previously interested in. Richardson ticks a lot of the boxes he has seemingly looked for. On top of that, I just get the feeling that John has been positioning himself for this draft since the Russell Wilson trade. That he’s been eyeing a quarterback here.

I appreciate that’s just a hunch on my behalf. Yet he’s always struck me as someone who will ultimately judge himself on his quarterback decision making. That’s pretty much the Green Bay way. That franchise prides itself on the fact they’ve almost over-prepared at the position at times, yet have enjoyed a run of Favre-to-Rodgers which is fairly unprecedented in terms of production and quality.

I guess what I’m saying is I don’t think Schneider traded away the quarterback he hit a home-run on without a plan which possibly included this specific draft class.

Yet there’s also the other side. The one that has to acknowledge that Seattle’s season ended with everyone looking enviously at San Francisco’s defensive line. Whether Will Anderson can be as impactful as Nick Bosa or not, he’s still a heck of a player. Adding him to the pass rush will be immensely attractive.

I think a lot of fact-finding has been going on over the last week or so. That’s as much a reason to attend the pro-days as anything — and let’s not forget, Anderson was part of one of those pro-days too. Who is going where? Who is thinking of trading up?

It’s very easy to imagine Schneider speaking to Richardson’s agent to scope out what he’s hearing. Perhaps even to ask to be kept in touch as they piece this together.

What I am pretty certain about though, is that the Seahawks are not — as some fans might prefer — ‘definitely not taking a quarterback’. I think it’s a very real possibility. I think they’re weighing things up. You can afford to do this when you’re picking fifth overall and have a bunch of picks to play with.

Do they want to trade up to #3 to guarantee the third quarterback — who they might rate very highly, irrespective of the fact they’re the third QB to leave the board (after all — Josh Allen was the third taken and so was Justin Herbert)?

Do they want to trade up to #3 to guarantee Will Anderson?

How much are they prepared to spend to do it?

Or do they just want to see how the cards fall at #5?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a discussion that is being had, or has been had. If trading up is a non-starter than you sit and see what lasts. You might be delighted with the end result. You might be disappointed. They’ve got to determine what emotion they want to feel on draft night. Elation at getting the ‘must have’ player (if one exists) or contentment that you settled for what’s left.

How gutted will you be if you’re eyeing one player and have to settle for another, because another team traded up to #3?

Personally I’d be very excited about Richardson or Anderson. I suspect the Seahawks feel similarly — and I’d add Levis to that mix too. It’s just whether one player has emerged during this process that they really ‘have to have’. If so, go get him. If not, then it’s all good.

It’s why I’ve tried to stress a few times this off-season that the Seahawks are in a good place, with some very attractive options. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. But I think we can see a picture emerging of the options facing Seattle — and the likely players they’ll be able to consider.

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An argument for the Seahawks trading up in the draft

April 1, 2023 /

It feels necessary to write this again. The options for Seattle in this draft are really good.

I first made that case after the final game of the regular season. The Seahawks had dropped from the #3 pick to #5. A lot of people were dismayed but it was still a great position to be in.

At the time I argued there were four really good quarterbacks and two excellent defensive players in range. Even if you had to pick the fifth player instead of the third, you were in position to get one of the top talents in the 2023 class.

I’ve since adjusted that approach because a lot has emerged about Jalen Carter through various reports. I’ve also been able to dig around a bit and say, with confidence, I don’t expect Carter to be a consideration at #5.

So now we’re down to the four quarterbacks and Will Anderson. That’s still a great place to be. You’re going to get a really talented player at a premium position.

I’m not sure why a large section of the fanbase is so against the quarterback options. I suspect the media narrative has had a negative impact, plus there’s a strong loyalty to Geno Smith — even if his contract is perfectly setup for the Seahawks to move on as early as next year.

Twelve months ago sections of the media were saying Malik Willis might go second overall. Then we had Desmond Ridder being touted as a first round pick. There was more buzz for a group of backup-level players in 2022 than there is about a group who are potentially going to fill out the first four picks of this draft.

This is an excellent crop, way beyond what we saw a year ago. The same source who told me he thought all of the top 2022 quarterbacks were third rounders, told me early in the process this year that the top four QB’s will go in the top-10 — and that Hendon Hooker could easily find a home in round one too.

There’s a fear factor among Seahawks fans I want to push-back against. The view is that these quarterbacks would be a wasted pick compared to a defensive player who can contribute immediately, in a more impactful way.

I’d argue the Seahawks have created the ideal environment for a young signal caller to succeed. Sitting and learning for at least a year is a good thing. With the extreme physical talent of the quarterbacks at the top of this class — it’s possible a smooth transition to a new long-term starter could create a situation where the franchise is set-up for the next 10-15 years at the most important position in football.

No, the quarterbacks available are not flawless. They rarely are. Yet as I noted last week, people said incredibly unflattering things about Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Had the Seahawks selected either with a top-five pick, I suspect fans would’ve been howling in pain at the decision based on the perception of both players.

Mahomes benefitted from sitting for a year. Allen benefitted from patience afforded as he went through a two-year learning curve. People forget Allen was a meme for a couple of seasons before the light switched on. Now, the Bills are seen as annual contenders because of their quarterback.

Even Pete Carroll and John Schneider have seemingly gone out of their way to set the table for the possibility of a quarterback pick — talking about the rare opportunity afforded Seattle to select this early in a good QB draft.

Having the opportunity to draft a player and develop them for the future would be a good thing at this position. While there’s no certainty it’ll work out — the same is easily true of any defender you take in the top-five.

Equally, if the Seahawks don’t trade up, increasingly it looks like someone else will. That would mean Will Anderson potentially lasting to #5 — unless the Colts also trade down so someone else can land the top defender.

This feels like a cause for celebration, not anger or argument. Seattle can get an exciting quarterback or Will Anderson. Tremendous!

I think the Seahawks will be enamoured with Anderson and Anthony Richardson. We’re talking about an ideal scheme-fit defender with all of the high character, alpha-dog mentality, production and physicality Seattle craves. We’re also talking about the kind of physical talent at quarterback that gets Schneider and Carroll out of bed in the morning. Carroll runs a development program and with Richardson, he’d get to try and develop a player the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

I also think they will be fond of Will Levis. I know he seems to be persona non grata in mock drafts at the moment but I’m not sold on that. He’s a physical marvel, highly intelligent and he’s well versed in pro-schemes. In particular, you can watch 2021 tape and see him excelling in something akin to Seattle’s offense.

However, Richardson is just taking the league by storm. The buzz is legit. The upside is through the roof. He has a magical charisma to him — and it’s no wonder there’s a growing feeling someone will trade up to #3 to secure his services so that they can work to turn him into a star.

At #5, the Seahawks could sit tight and get either Richardson or Anderson. It’s also possible, however, neither will be there.

If they are the two players Seattle is focusing on, then I think they should try and trade up. The only reason not to is if they rate Levis highly enough (and I think Schneider might) to stick at #5.

Otherwise — the statement of, ‘we might never be here again’ needs to be taken seriously. That’s not just about having the chance to pick at #5. It’s about being within striking distance of moving up to get a player you really want.

You can eliminate any doubt or mystery by trading up to #3 or #4 with Arizona or Indianapolis. If the Cardinals are willing to deal with a division rival and be realistic over compensation, do it. If the Colts are comfortable taking Levis and are therefore happy to trade down to #5, do it.

If it costs you #37 to make that move, so be it. If it costs #20, so be it. If you have the conviction that Richardson is the next superstar QB or that Anderson can be the lead stud on your defense for the next decade — make the move.

Nobody looks back at the Mahomes trade and talks about the extra first rounder Kansas City gave up. Nobody talks about the two second round picks Buffalo used to get Allen.

The Seahawks have 10 picks in this draft — ample to address needs later on.

I also think we need to be realistic about where this team is. They aren’t a draft away from being a contender. It will probably take another off-season to reach that position.

So if this is year two of a process — continue the process. You have a top-five pick. If trading to #3 or #4 gets you a player you believe can be a star, make that move. The one thing this roster lacks currently is a true, elite-level star player.

It’ll be harder to find that player in future drafts when the team is back picking in the second half of round one.

I’ll promise you this — if the Seahawks trade #20 to select Anthony Richardson or Will Anderson at #3, I won’t complain if it doesn’t work out. I’ll applaud the move. The boldness. The ambition. The conviction.

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Sometimes you have to take a risk. The key is to take the right kind of risk. Trading two first rounders for a box safety isn’t the right kind of risk. This, however, would be.

So unless they simply think Levis is as good as Richardson, or that Tyree Wilson is as good as Anderson, they should be thinking about the kind of bold trade-up that is suddenly being speculated by Vic Tafur and Tony Pauline.

The sooner you make that move, the more time you have to scale down your thought process to get this pick right. If you make the move to #3 in the coming days — you’ll have three weeks to determine whether it’s Richardson or Anderson you want (while keeping the door open on C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, just in case). You can forget about any other players you might be considering at #5.

‘Pay the iron price’ as someone declared in one of my recent live streams. Using the #20 or #37 pick to move up would be a hefty price. But with 10 total picks and five in the first three rounds — you have the stock to make a move up the board and still address several other needs.

It’ll be worth it if Richardson becomes the next superstar quarterback or Anderson the next game-wrecking defender.

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Are the Seahawks going to trade up to #3?

March 31, 2023 /

John Schneider & Pete Carroll had a front-row seat for Anthony Richardson’s pro-day

I’ve got my notes on Anthony Richardson’s pro-day coming up but first I wanted to reflect on speculation provided by two separate reporters.

Firstly, Vic Tafur of ‘the Athletic’ posted this in his report from the NFL owners meeting:

But the buzz at Monday night’s NFL party, with owners, general managers, coaches, agents and reporters hitting the open bar, was that all four quarterbacks will be long gone by the time the Raiders pick at No. 7.

That’s relevant assuming the Raiders aren’t blowing smoke and are really interested in the four quarterbacks — given that they just gave Garoppolo $33.75 million guaranteed and a 6-11 team should probably keep all its draft picks rather than try and trade up.

The buzz is that the Seahawks will jump up from No. 5 to No. 3 to grab either Richardson or Levis, as Stroud and Young are expected to go 1-2. The Cardinals can move down to No, 5 and still get the top defensive player, as the Colts are expected to also draft a QB at No. 4.

It’s perhaps telling that Michael-Shawn Dugar, the Seahawks reporter for ‘the Athletic’, also wrote an article titled, ‘Seahawks’ interest in top QBs is no smokescreen‘:

Seattle knows that picking this high in the draft again is unlikely. Since 2011, Seattle’s average native first-round slot has been in the 20s. The Seahawks rarely (if ever) have 20 prospects with first-round grades, which is why they’ve so often traded back in the first round or traded out of the round entirely. Schneider’s history of trading down in the first round has contributed to the belief that the Seahawks’ interest in the top quarterbacks is a ruse. But there’s a notable difference between picking No. 5 and pick No. 25, so Seattle’s previous draft strategies aren’t necessarily applicable this year.

Further evidence Seattle isn’t bluffing about possibly selecting a quarterback: Carroll has already relayed to Smith that it’s legitimately on the table.

Clearly, it seems, there was a theme at the league meeting — accurate or not — that Seattle is in the QB market in this draft.

Friend of the blog Tony Pauline added to this yesterday, reporting:

Speculation from league insiders during Florida’s pro day is the Seattle Seahawks could be the team that leapfrogs the Indianapolis Colts and trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure Richardson. Several reasons were given.

The cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks, who have another first-round pick — the 20th selection.

Additionally, the general manager and coach who draft Richardson have to be on safe footing. Even Russell Wilson couldn’t get Pete Carroll and John Schneider fired. Finally, Richardson is the type of freaky athlete that the Seahawks have drafted in the past and had success with — think Tariq Woolen and DK Metcalf.

What should we make of all this?

When I listened to Carroll speak candidly to Steve Wyche about drafting a quarterback (see below) it really convinced me that they were prepared to take one. This didn’t feel like a great ruse. It felt like a coach laying out a situation, almost preparing everyone for a possibility:

This doesn’t mean the Seahawks were definitely going to draft a quarterback. I just think it highlighted a situation we’ve discussed a lot. I think they’re comfortable taking Will Anderson or one of the top four quarterbacks at #5.

I must admit though, these latest reports made me think.

It’s possible the wheels are in motion behind the scenes. The Seahawks wouldn’t leak this info to a Tafur or Pauline directly but if they’re chatting to other teams, scoping out what Arizona is actually being offered at #3 to help them determine their next move, that could be brought up at a cocktail party at the owners meeting quite easily.

Or, maybe they’re trying to shift things into gear? Spook a team into trading up to #3, increasing the chances of Will Anderson lasting to #5?

I’m sure people will shape their view based on their own personal preferences.

I then come onto my own personal impression that I don’t think the Seahawks are disinterested in the QB’s and wonder, would they cook-up such an elaborate poker game to avoid taking one? Is Anderson really worth all this effort? If they don’t take a quarterback when they’re in the top-five with a well established ‘top-four’ — when will they? I’m pretty sure the plan isn’t solely to ride or die with Geno Smith.

I’m fascinated by the whole mystery of it all. I’m eager to know what the reality is.

I will say again that I think these quarterbacks are factory made for John Schneider. These are the types of player he goes for. The thought of him trading up to make sure he gets the guy he wants is not as fanciful as some think.

I just remain sceptical about the viability of trading with a division rival. Does Monti Ossenfort, the new Cardinals GM, really want his first big move in the job to be a trade so that a division rival can draft a potential franchise quarterback? That would be career suicide if the player turns out to be great.

Can he risk the Seahawks trading up to #3 and taking Anderson instead of a QB?

What’s the price to move up two spots? It feels like a difficult one to work out. If the Cardinals are moving back knowing they can still get the guy they want, then it doesn’t exactly help their bargaining position because that’s a feather in Seattle’s cap compared to say the Raiders at #7, Falcons at #8 or Titans at #11.

Equally, the Seahawks only need to move up to stop somebody else doing it. So if they end up having to outbid another team, that could get expensive.

I’m torn. The Seahawks clearly want to build their defense and trading up for a quarterback makes that harder. At the same time, this is a rare opportunity to get a potential star quarterback for the long term. John Schneider was supposedly prepared to be aggressive to trade prime Russell Wilson for a chance to draft Josh Allen, plus he was reportedly prepared to draft Patrick Mahomes to usurp Wilson. We know he’s willing to be bold at the position.

It could be a fascinating few days. What I think this does tell us, however, is that we’re on the right track here. Whether they want to move up or just want to sucker someone else to do it so Anderson falls — the four quarterbacks and Will Anderson are likely the players we should focus on. You’re not trading up for Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson and you’re not hoping for either of those two to last to #5 by shifting Arizona out of the #3 spot.

My prediction is the Seahawks won’t trade up. I think it’d be silly, however, to ignore what’s being speculated — especially when it’s coming from two non-related sources.

Now onto my pro-day notes for Anthony Richardson…

I was listening to Jordan Palmer courtesy of ‘the 33rd team’ this week and he had some interesting things to say about Richardson. Palmer attended the Manning Passing Academy last year. He says people who witnessed that event were referring to Richardson’s physical performance as ‘legendary’ —- with onlookers amazed by how effortless he was launching the ball downfield.

Jim Nagy and Jake Heaps have offered similar sentiments, saying that at an event where Bryce Young was present, Richardson and Will Levis stood out the most due to their strong arms and athleticism.

At the Florida pro-day, you can see why everyone was so awestruck. You will never, ever see a player throw the ball with this level of velocity and power with so little energy exerted to deliver a pass. It’s unique. It’s barely believable. It speaks to the titanic-sized potential Richardson possesses.

Each of the pro-days have been different so far. C.J. Stroud’s was up-tempo and rapid. There was no messing around — he got into his throws quickly and sprayed accurate passes all over the field. Young’s was low-key and almost felt like he was saying, ‘let’s get this out of the way’. Levis showed off his physical qualities and the throwing session was brilliantly designed by the aforementioned Palmer.

Richardson was free and loose. There was nothing mechanical about his drops or footwork. At times it was like he was just playing catch in the backyard. He’d hop around on the spot, then flick his wrist and fire a laser to the target — often deep downfield. He was jogging and then lofting passes 60-70 yards like it was nothing. On several of his throws he was sporting a huge grin on his face. This was not a pressurised environment. If Stroud and Levis were business-like and Young intent on moving on in the process, Richardson was out there having a blast.

There’s nothing technically impressive about Richardson. The whole workout felt like he was saying, ‘bollocks to this — we all know I need to sit for a year or two and develop, so I’m just going to show off my arm’. And show off he did.

I’ve never seen anything like it. Josh Allen is the closest I can think of but his pro-day was a bit more classically designed. Richardson was freelancing today and showed this incomparable ability to generate a frozen-rope level spiral with maximum velocity without exerting himself. He throws with as much tenacity as I might throw a soft-toy to my six-year-old daughter. Yet he still generates a world class, jaw-dropping level of torque and distance.

This is natural, physical ability at its finest.

His release is slightly elongated which is a contrast to the others. It does make me wonder if he’s spent any time gaining technical coaching this off-season. We know Levis has been working with Palmer (along with DTR, Hendon Hooker and Max Duggan). Levis’ release point is high and tight. Richardson does drop his arm and come around, then up, to release. It’s not a massive issue but something worth noting.

You only have to look at Richardson to see he belongs on the front cover of a sports magazine. His frame is incredible. He’s just sensationally built and in proportion. This is what a superstar looks like. I generally think if a player has flaws but has the upside to reach an elite level, provided he has the right application and attitude, they are worth taking a chance on. By all accounts, Richardson has that attitude and application. In the right environment, he can be one of the faces of the league.

He jogged to his left on a couple of occasions, threw across his body and nailed the velocity and placement. I would’ve personally liked to see more structure to the workout at times. Levis was running extended bootlegs and play action, then throwing realistic NFL passes against imaginary situations. The pitch-and-catch nature of Richardson’s session was interesting to an extent but it would’ve been good to see some tougher challenges.

Even so, I enjoyed watching him flex with this display of power.

He threw a couple of lofted mid-range fades which were ‘wow’ deliveries. There was one shot across his body to the right hand side where I can barely believe how easily he threw it 60-yards downfield, with great height and placement, into the range for a receiver to run under. The downfield stuff was effortless.

He quickened the pace after a warm-up and rolled into some five-step drops. The throws came out with reasonable timing but I think he can deliver quicker than this. As on tape, there are some slightly higher throws than necessary on easy layups. Yet he can also launch to the sideline with ease on mid-range outs. On some of those reps he was delivering a ball most players simply cannot.

Richardson threw some 40-yard passes to the right sideline that just exploded out of his hand. He followed it up with some play-action work, mimicking looking off the safety down the middle then with no resetting of his feet, throwing to the left sideline with ideal punch and velocity.

He took some under-center snaps where he fell into a three-step drop. Richardson then showed off a hitch on a slant and go before floating a beautiful downfield shot towards the left sideline.

They had one of the coaches provide some mock pressure. Richardson span out of it, then as he was running to his left, threw across his body and landed a perfect pass 60-yards downfield hitting the receiver in stride. He made it look easy.

Richardson showed off his arm, launching a pass from the 12-yard line to the 18-yard line at the opposite end of the field. He gets great height on his downfield throws. Young’s were quite flat I thought at Alabama but Richardson gets the height necessary for a receiver to track with ease and run under the throw. This was evidenced by the fact he hit the roof on one pass, just as Levis did at his pro-day.

He had another deep shot with an exaggerated play-fake to the left, then he ran back to the right and launched it downfield like he was throwing a 10-yard slant. Loft, precision, velocity. It was a stunning throw, hitting the receiver deep downfield in stride. Masterful.

There are no physical limitations here. For any team wanting an explosive downfield passer, he can be it. He’ll be able to throw from difficult angles under pressure and he won’t need perfect technique to generate an accurate, powerful throw because he’s just so uniquely created physically. I’ve seen defenders hanging off him and he still hits the mark.

I don’t think there’ll be another Anthony Richardson and I haven’t seen anyone like this before. I feel confident saying there may never be a player with greater upside. That doesn’t mean it’ll work out and of course — there’s always a risk factor. There is with any high pick, even the perceived ‘safe’ picks (see: Aaron Curry).

Yet the prospect of it working out for him is well worth not only a top-five pick but also an aggressive move to make sure you get him.

I think someone is going to do it. I’m not sure who. But the chance of four quarterbacks going in the top-four has, in my opinion, become a very real possibility.

The four high-profile quarterback pro-days were fun to watch and highlighted positives with each player. If Trey Lance can have a bad pro-day like he did and still coax a team to trade up for him, I’d say that suggests there’s an extremely strong chance these four will be top-five picks.

If you missed our live stream yesterday discussing this topic in more detail, check it out here:

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New two-round mock draft, trades impact Seattle

March 30, 2023 /

I’ve not bought into the idea that the Cardinals will trade out of the #3 pick. I wasn’t convinced a team would make an offer good enough to tempt Arizona. After all, they’d be moving off the top defensive player in the draft at a time when they’re desperate for difference makers on defense.

However, I’m starting to think it might happen after all.

The Florida pro-day is the last of the top-quarterback throwing sessions. Anthony Richardson is the star attraction and remains the X-factor in this process. He has everything needed physically to be a future superstar.

Given the right guidance and developed properly, the sky’s the limit for Richardson.

I found the list of teams bringing Richardson in for an official-30 visit interesting. Per Jordan Schultz, they include Las Vegas, Atlanta, Tennessee and Baltimore.

In other words — the teams picking at #7, #8 and #11 plus a franchise potentially set for a messy divorce with their current starting quarterback.

The buzz around Richardson is legit. I think teams are going to end up thinking — why not take a chance on this player becoming brilliant?

As such, I want to do a mock with a team trading up to #3.

I’m going for the Falcons.

Firstly, they’ve done a great job aggressively upgrading various parts of their roster this off-season. They have very few question marks apart from quarterback — with third round pick Desmond Ridder announced recently as the 2023 starter.

I don’t think Ridder is good enough, or has shown enough, to believe the Falcons are completely sold on his long-term starting credentials. Imagine inserting Richardson, after a year of preparation, into a roster with so much talent? By being aggressive on the open market, they’ve also bought a means to be aggressive via draft trade. They can afford to take a chance.

Arthur Blank isn’t a shy, retiring, conservative-thinking owner. He wants to win. He wants excitement. I think he will want Richardson. I have the Falcons trading their next two first round picks to move up from #8 to #3. The Raiders choose not to match, while the Titans would have to give up too much to move up from #11.

This would mean four quarterbacks taken with the first four picks.

You’ll find the mock below with extra thoughts on the Seahawks at the end.

Firstly though…

The trades

Atlanta (#8) trades with Arizona (#3) for the Falcons’ 2024 & 2025 first round picks
The Falcons have built a very competitive roster and can afford to let Desmond Ridder start this year. In the meantime, they trade up for Richardson. If Ridder succeeds in 2023, they can always trade him and recoup some stock. Either way — this is a franchise that needs some electricity and Richardson would provide that.

New York Giants (#26) trade with Seattle (#20) for the #90 pick
The Giants jump ahead of LA and Baltimore to get the receiver they want. The Seahawks get a third round pick in return.

Seattle (#38) trades with Houston (#34) for the #124 pick
The Seahawks want to make sure they get their first choice center and jump ahead of division rivals Arizona to make sure they land their man.

First round

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Against Georgia he showed flashes of Mahomes. He’s a sensational talent, capable of handling the pressure of being the #1 pick. A star in the making.

#2 Houston — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
Young is a good fit for the offense, would help shape a new culture in Houston and provide an offensive identity to the franchise.

#3 Atlanta (v/ARI) — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
The Falcons trade up to add a player with enough potential to be a MVP candidate in the future. He’d be working with the ideal coach in Arthur Smith.

#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
The big-armed Levis screams Chris Ballard pick and his ability to start quickly is a plus.

#5 Seattle — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I think the Seahawks are very open to drafting any of the top-four quarterbacks but they’ll also be delighted if Anderson lasts to this spot. He’s perfect for the scheme, would give Seattle a legit edge threat and his A+ character and attitude are exactly what Schneider and Carroll are looking to add.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
I think they will consider Jalen Carter unlike Arizona and Seattle but ultimately they take the safer bet with Wilson.

#7 Las Vegas — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Offensive linemen with the explosive testing results Skoronski has go very early in the draft.

#8 Arizona (v/ATL) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
With outstanding physical gifts and a feisty playing style, Gonzalez should find a home in the top-10. The Cardinals are comfortable moving down here, knowing they’ll land one of Wilson or Gonzalez.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
I don’t think the Bears will be one of the teams prepared to take a chance on Carter. They add one of the legit, blue-chip players in Robinson to create the most dynamic rushing attack in the NFL.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
The GM who takes Carter will have money in the bank with ownership, job security and the ability to outlast the mistake if he busts.

#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
As soon as he ran a brilliant short shuttle and three-cone, I was convinced he deserves to be taken this early. A complete tight end.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
I remain unsure of Smith-Njigba’s speed but in the Shanahan-inspired system, which runs a lot of quick slants and crossing routes, he should excel.

#13 NY Jets — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
Joe Douglas loves explosive offensive linemen and Darnell Wright is the best tackle in the draft.

#14 New England — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
This feels like a pick the Patriots would make — a good fit in terms of scheme with the chance to develop Banks into a quality cornerback.

#15 Green Bay — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
The Packers troll Aaron Rodgers by finally drafting a receiver in round one and select a player I think is being way underrated.

#16 Washington — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
The lack of testing will be a concern but Witherspoon’s tenacious passion for brutal hits will appeal to Ron Rivera and his staff.

#17 Pittsburgh — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
He just feels like the kind of monster you find in the AFC North.

#18 Detroit — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
He’s been overrated for far too long and could last longer than this. He still hasn’t done any testing either.

#19 Tampa Bay — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
This would allow the Buccs to keep Tristan Wirfs at right tackle.

#20 NY Giants (v/SEA) — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
The Giants trade up for a bigger receiver with WR1 potential, leaping ahead of LA and Baltimore — two other teams in the wide-out market.

#21 Miami — forfeited
Naughty Naughty.

#22 LA Chargers — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Flowers would complement the bigger targets already in LA.

#23 Baltimore — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
Not sure how this would go down in Pittsburgh…

#24 Minnesota — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
There’s legit buzz around Hooker as a first round prospect and the Vikings have been looking closely at this QB class according to numerous reports.

#25 Jacksonville — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
I think he has to fix his technique to stay at tackle but physically he has everything you need.

#26 Seattle (v/NYG) — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
The Seahawks trade down a few spots and select another impact defensive lineman. They’re seemingly after another 280-285lbs defensive end for their 3-4 and at 282lbs, Adebawore ran a 4.49 forty and a 4.26 short shuttle. That’s insane. He’s also explosive with long arms and he has a great Senior Bowl on his résumé.

#27 Dallas — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
The Cowboys are exactly the kind of team that would take a chance on Kancey and reap the benefits for years to come.

#28 Buffalo — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
He’s a bit older and has some technical issues to resolve but there’s no doubt he’s an enticing player with major physical upside.

#29 Cincinnati — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
The Bengals need to keep adding weapons and this would be excellent value.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
The Saints also jump into the tight end market and get Derek Carr a new best friend.

#31 Philadelphia — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
They lost both safeties in free agency and Branch is versatile enough to play in Philly’s defense where Sean Desai will use a lot of three-safety sets.

#32 Kansas City — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
They love dynamic athletes and that’s McDonald — the bendiest, best-balance pass-rusher you’ll find.

Second round

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
The Steelers add some serious beef by taking Dawand Jones for the O-line then adding Mazi Smith for the defense.

#34 Seattle (v/HOU) — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
Fearing the Cardinals, the Seahawks jump up four spots and give Houston a fourth round pick to select JMS — locking up the center position. His wrestling background, 4.56 short shuttle and personality are ideal fits for Seattle.

#35 Arizona — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
I think he’s become quite overrated. He has great testing and size numbers but let’s not forget he didn’t even start for Iowa.

#36 Indianapolis — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
A really good run-blocker who is going to go earlier than people think.

#37 LA Rams — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Eventually someone is going to snap him up. Incredible potential and he helped drive Alabama forward last season — sometimes on his own.

#38 Houston (v/SEA, DEN) — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
He’s a tweener and it’s hard to work out what his role is at the next level but someone will take a shot to work it out.

#39 Las Vegas — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
His agility testing could get him into round one but his tape is ‘meh’ and I’m not sure he’s a glass-eater like some of these other tight ends.

#40 Carolina — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
More weapons. Addison would be a nice slot-option for the Panthers.

#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
He can play a variety of positions but for anyone who thinks he’s a nose tackle — watch what he did at the Senior Bowl. He can disrupt and is probably better suited to a role that lets him rush the passer more often than he did in college.

#42 Tennessee — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
Whether he plays tackle or guard, there’s a lot to like about the athletic Canadian.

#43 Green Bay (v/NYJ CLE) — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
The chances are this pick will end up with the Packers in an Aaron Rodgers trade. If so, they get an alpha-dog pass rusher who had fantastic testing numbers at the combine and his pro-day.

#44 NY Jets — Cody Mauch (G/C, North Dakota State)
The Jets need an answer at center and I think Mauch’s tenacity and joyful delight in burying people will secure a top-50 placing.

#45 Atlanta — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
He’s a fantastic, dynamic athlete and he could easily go in round one.

#46 Green Bay — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
When you just watch highlights of LaPorta — essentially the moments where he’s not bogged-down by the Iowa offense — he looks genuinely exciting as a receiver.

#47 New England — Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
This feels like such a Patriots pick. Amazing character, stunning athlete, versatile.

#48 Washington — Luke Schoonmaker (TE, Michigan)
It’s such a fantastic tight end class with the testing numbers and we could see a whole bunch go in the top-50. Schoonmaker is another who fits the bill.

#49 Detroit — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
The testing numbers were not spectacular and his missed-tackle rate could lead to a bit of a fall.

#50 Pittsburgh — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Ringo is a mature, well-spoken defender with great straight-line speed but I worry about his change of direction ability. How will he handle anything going over the middle?

#51 Tampa Bay — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s so underrated and deserves a lot more attention than he’s getting.

#52 Miami — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
The way he played against Georgia was top level. Teams will remember that.

#53 Seattle — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
It’s not a 2023 need but it’s certainly looking like a critical 2024 need. Kraft has a testing profile to match the best in the game — plus he’s a great blocker and plays with toughness and athleticism. The Seahawks can afford to tap into a great TE class and not solely be driven by need in this draft.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
This will be seen as a big drop but remember — he’s missed a lot of time through injury, he lacks length and he’s been really inconsistent. The upside is there but he needs to put it together.

#55 LA Chargers — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
Another player at cornerback who could easily go a lot earlier than this.

#56 Detroit (v/MIN) — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
Lots of turnovers and he has a knack for making plays — but he looked like a rake in shorts at the combine.

#57 Jacksonville — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
I wanted to find a way to get Ojulari into the top-50 but it’s hard. Great character and a very capable rusher who can drop when asked.

#58 NY Giants — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
I loved interviewing Brents and his attitude and approach will see him develop and reach a high level. Plus, he has an outstanding physical profile.

#59 Dallas — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
An electric, dynamic playmaker who compares well to Tony Pollard.

#60 Buffalo — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
I thought his combine was underwhelming and teams might start to wonder whether he’s a product of Tennessee’s wide-open scheme.

#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
They like speed at cornerback and Rush’s name matches his testing profile.

#62 Chicago (v/CAR, SF) — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
He’s a bit of a tweener and that won’t help but his rush ability plus the intensity and character he possesses will make him a very likely round two pick.

#63 Philadelphia — Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh)
His pro-day performance was exceptional and he just looks like the kind of player you can imagine running riot in Philly’s offense.

#64 Kansas City — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
For me he’s a top-50 lock in grading but if he lasts to the Chiefs, good luck to the rest of the AFC West.

Seattle’s round three picks

#84 — Byron Young (DE, Alabama)
Reuniting Will Anderson with Young would be a masterstroke. Alabama’s two alpha-male leaders from their destructive D-line, working in tandem. Young is a perfect fit for Seattle’s scheme. He’s adept at two-gapping and reading an offense. He can knife into the backfield to create opportunities for others. He’s disruptive, powerful and strong. He can start immediately.

#90 — Jaquelin Roy (DT, LSU)
The Seahawks need a nose tackle and Roy could go in this range. He’s a character fit for Seattle and the one thing he does that will really appeal is he plays a ton of snaps. They can put a heavy workload on him and he’ll get the job done. Roy’s not a spectacular player but he’ll be very solid.

The Seahawks’ picks in rounds 1-3

Will Anderson (EDGE)
Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE)
John Michael Schmitz (C)
Tucker Kraft (TE)
Byron Young (DE)
Jaquelin Roy (NT)

Thoughts on the Seahawks’ picks

I haven’t delved into a scenario where the quarterbacks go 1-4 before. I think the Seahawks, as I’ve said a few times, are very comfortable at #5. I think they’ll happily take one of the QB’s or, if this situation plays out, Will Anderson. To me it’s a very strong position to be in.

When the season ended in San Francisco there was a lot of talk about what the 49ers have that the Seahawks don’t have. Anderson could be viewed as a player who can close the gap. He is not a Bosa-brother level player but he’s still a very good prospect. You’re getting an aggressive, explosive edge rusher who plays the run well for his size and has shown he can be a production machine at Alabama. He has one of the best character profiles to ever enter the league, ticking every single box from family background to attitude and responsibility to lifestyle and the way he speaks to team-mates and the media. He’s also an alpha who can set the tone for the locker room. He wore #31 for a reason.

If the Seahawks want to create a scary defensive front, imagine putting Anderson on the field with Dre’Mont Jones, Adetomiwa Adebawore and one of Uchenna Nwosu, Darrell Taylor or Boye Mafe. That suddenly looks like a pack of hounds, ready to get after a quarterback. Opponents will not look forward to facing that.

On Adebawore, I do think they are looking for another 280-285lbs defensive end. They recently had a visit with Mario Edwards and were trying to sign Zach Allen to go with Jones. The thing with Adebawore is he’s just such a rare player. You don’t get 6-2, 282lbs linemen who run a 4.49 and a 4.26 short shuttle. Throw in the fact he has +34 inch arms and I actually think it’s possible he has the testing profile to ‘do a Tariq Woolen’ and come into the league and just fit right in.

After addressing the defense with their first two picks, attentions then turn to the offense. Seattle pulls off a ‘trade down, then trade up’ move. A year ago we know they looked into moving up with the #40 pick so it’s possible they’ll target something similar here. They land a center of the future, jumping ahead of Arizona, to get John Michael Schmitz. Fans have long wanted the team to invest in the position and Schmitz — along with Luke Wypler — is a perfect scheme fit.

Having addressed three critical needs with their top picks, now it’s time for some BPA magic. Tucker Kraft will be seen as a head-scratcher for some but with Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson out of contract in 2024 — and with Will Dissly’s long-term future uncertain beyond 2023 — planning ahead could be a wise move. Plus, the Seahawks need to create some cap space. Trading Noah Fant after the draft would save $6.5m. If they take one of the top TE’s in the draft, they might be able to deal Fant to a team that missed out on the position — promoting the rookie into a bigger role and freeing up the money they need.

On Kraft as a player — we’ve revealed how the top tight ends over the last decade have all had the same profile of a great 10-yard split and short shuttle. Kraft ran an elite 1.59 split and a sensational 4.29 shuttle. He also plays exactly how Seattle loves — tough, physical, he likes to block and he’s a dynamic pass-catcher.

In round three the attention returns to defense. Schneider said at the owners meeting they need ‘three or four’ more additions to the unit. By adding nose tackle Jaquelin Roy you fill the most pressing need remaining. Byron Young can also deliver some beef to the defensive front, to complement the dynamism of Adebawore and Jones.

This is a projection that represents Seattle’s uncompromising approach to character, competition and leadership.

With the remaining four picks you could target interior O-line depth, receiver and running back.

Final thoughts

For me, this would be an excellent haul for the Seahawks. You could potentially set-up your defense up for long term success. With the moves they’ve made so far, combined with these players added, you could be looking at a top-level unit.

Seattle’s choice at #5 will come down to Arizona sticking or moving down. That will determine whether the pick is Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson, in my opinion. Either player would be a thoroughly exciting proposition.

I will share my notes on Richardson’s pro-day later today. If a team is going to move up, it’ll likely be because he excelled in Gainesville. This could be a very interesting week ahead.

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