Category: Front Page News (Page 25 of 367)

I’ve done a few of these player interviews over the years. Julius Brents is without a doubt one of the best. Engaging, interesting, focused. It’s going to be very easy to root for him at the next level.

This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast.

John Schneider made his first appearance on 710 Seattle Sports last Thursday, kicking off a weekly spot that’ll continue until the draft.

Schneider isn’t going to give away secrets when he goes on the radio. However, I’m fascinated why — after 13 years — he suddenly wants to do this now. Is he simply doing a solid for Dave Wyman, a friend and one of the hosts? Is it indicative of an ongoing transfer of power — which will eventually culminate in Schneider being the key man within the franchise as Pete Carroll nears the end?

I think a bit of light-hearted speculation is an enjoyable topic during the off-season and I can’t have been the only one reading too much into what Schneider said. He wasted no time name-dropping scouting missions to watch Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Was it a coincidence? Or was he gently reminding everyone that he liked both players and that perhaps any future QB decision deserves a little faith and trust?

One of the key lines I found interesting was the way he described how he discusses the off-season with Carroll. He praised the Head Coach’s ability to take on information and the differing possibilities that come with a free agency and draft period.

It made me think about the amount of planning that goes on for an off-season. For those of us without first-hand NFL front office experience, it’s easy to come up with a ‘Plan A’ and talk about the benefits of said plan. I’ve never properly considered the sliding doors effect that goes on when certain dominos fall.

The way Schneider talked he essentially portrayed a situation where he would tell Carroll a series of opportunities and how they will pivot if those opportunities do or don’t come off. Basically it sounds like there is never really a ‘Plan A’ but just one bigger vision where you have to be ready to react to circumstances that go for or against you.

It’s a continuous puzzle piece, where you have to fit a lot of things together to build a roster. When you think of it like that — you realise how difficult it is to connect everything.

I think this is one of the reasons why we’re seeing teams cheat by using void years, taking on massive cap debt and pushing problems into tomorrow. It makes the puzzle easier to complete today and you can let the next person worry about the future.

I wanted to break down some of the scenarios that could impact the Seahawks’ thinking. There will be more, of course. These do feel like the obvious questions and challenges they’ll face though, as they prepare for a pivotal off-season.

1. Does John Schneider love one of these quarterbacks?

There’s nowhere else to start. This is the defining question of the whole off-season. For all the talk of Geno Smith’s future and the defensive line — this is where everything begins.

This is a GM who was reportedly prepared to draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they had Russell Wilson. This is a GM who reportedly was willing to trade Wilson for the opportunity to draft Josh Allen. Neither player was the first QB taken in their respective classes. If they’d actually gone through with either move, it would’ve been stunning and unprecedented at the time.

You better believe, therefore, that he’ll be willing to use the #5 pick on a quarterback — irrespective of any other off-season decision — if he sees a player he rates as highly as Mahomes and Allen.

Remember — Mahomes and Allen were viewed as flawed players coming into the league. Lest we forget that Daniel Jeremiah didn’t even include Mahomes on his updated top-50 board less than a month before the 2017 draft, while Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes and Allen lower than he did Drew Lock.

If Schneider loves a quarterback or multiple quarterbacks, he will probably take one at #5. When you look at players like Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud, it’s hard not to think they are exactly the types of quarterback Schneider covets. I wouldn’t rule out interest in Bryce Young, either.

2. Geno Smith’s future

Smith’s future will matter for a number of reasons. It’ll dictate how much you have to spend in free agency. If you don’t re-sign him, you’ll need a quarterback on the roster before the draft who you are comfortable with adding to the competition to start.

With only $19.1m to spend in effective cap space, this is a huge call.

If you don’t re-sign Smith, does a quarterback at #5 become inevitable? Do you even have to consider being aggressive and trading up if there’s one player you feel is especially capable of starting for you quickly?

Does the cap saving also give you a greater opportunity to be more aggressive in free agency on the defensive line? For example, if your intention is to sign Smith to say a three-year deal with a lower year-one cap hit — can you do something similar for a defensive lineman if Smith goes elsewhere? You just transfer that initial cap hit to a DaRon Payne or Javon Hargrave and backload in the same way.

Signing Smith to an extension obviously buys you the opportunity to go D-line first, if that is the preferred route. It would also take the pressure off needing to start a rookie quarterback. We’ve talked a lot about the ideal situation being an Alex Smith/Patrick Mahomes torch-passing scenario.

Of course, Smith isn’t the only bridge option. There are cheaper alternatives available who could do the job but they might not be able to perform to Smith’s level.

Keeping Geno would also be the perfect smokescreen if your intention is to draft a specific quarterback, whether that’s at #5 or later on.

I’ll assume Schneider already knows if there’s a quarterback he ‘has to have’ in this class. With that established, addressing Smith’s future is the second most important factor because it influences everything else you can do or need to do.

I still think the best thing to do is let him establish his market at the combine when the entire league and every agent congregates on Indianapolis. Then you make a call on the price. Thankfully, that increasingly appears to have been Seattle’s plan all along.

3. Is Jalen Carter a Seahawk?

For me this is the third most important question entering the off-season. Schneider spoke on Thursday about the work they do on individuals, then the meetings they have as a staff before determining whether a player has the right character to be graded as a potential Seahawk.

In a separate interview at the end of Seattle’s season, he noted how much emphasis they placed on character in the 2022 draft.

In terms of pure talent, Carter is one of the best defensive linemen to enter the league in the last few years. He is exactly the type of player the Seahawks have needed for a long time. He is someone who can wreck the interior, impact games and be a difference maker. If he isn’t the best player in the draft he’s second only to Bijan Robinson.

As noted last week, however, the concerns over his character are real and should be taken seriously:

While it’s not the case that Carter is a bad person or anything like that — there are legitimate concerns in the league about his maturity, attitude, reliability and punctuality. Unquestionably he’s a very talented player but I would recommend people don’t dismiss what is being said by Todd McShay and Lance Zierlein.

This not only increases the chances of Carter lasting to #5 — it means the Seahawks would have a big call to make if one of the most talented defensive linemen to enter the league in recent years is available, yet they — like others — have serious concerns about whether he has the attitude and application to make the most of his god-given physical gifts.

Determining whether you would be prepared to take Carter at #5 is a big call. If you decide that he’s not a character fit for your locker room, then it impacts how you approach the #5 pick in a significant way.

Will Anderson will likely be very much considered a ‘Seahawk’ because there are no questions about him. It’s also been reported by Jeff Howe in the Athletic that generally speaking, the league sees a ‘top-three’ at quarterback (Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud & Will Levis).

If the three quarterbacks and Anderson end up making up the top-four — you have a big decision to make. Are you OK taking Carter? Do you take Anthony Richardson to draft and develop? Do you trade down with a team wanting the opportunity to select Richardson or Carter? Do you have another player you’re willing to take at #5?

It will certainly make life a lot easier for all concerned if Carter can convince teams he will apply himself like a professional and be a more mature person when drafted. That way the Seahawks can either draft him, filling a huge need, or someone else will draft him in the top-four, sending Anderson or a top-three QB to Seattle.

This isn’t the only consideration though. If you’re not prepared to take Carter at #5, then you need a plan to improve your interior defensive line. Is it possible to do that at #20, #38 or #53 at a sufficient level? Can you add a key free agent (especially if you’ve re-signed Geno Smith)? If DaRon Payne is tagged by Washington, can you trade for him? Can you afford him?

Carter influences so much of your draft and free agency thinking.

4. If you take a quarterback at #5 how do you fix your defense?

Given Seattle’s glaring defensive issues — if Schneider is insistent that he’s found the next great quarterback and can get him at #5, he’ll need to produce a plan to help the defense in other ways.

It wouldn’t surprise me if the Seahawks view Will Anderson as a big target at #5 (if he lasts) and would then look to pivot to Will McDonald if he’s gone.

I’ve said it a few times since the Senior Bowl but McDonald is the prototype pass rusher for the Carroll Seahawks. The length, the explosive traits, the balance and bend. He’s what they go for.

Their main round one defensive focus could easily be based around the two players named Will — Anderson at #5 or McDonald at #20.

I fear McDonald will rise up boards after the combine when he puts on a show for the ages. At the very least, he might end up being just out of range — as Brian Burns was in 2019. That would be gut-wrenching because increasingly I think he could be an excellent option for Seattle at #20 — whether they go quarterback at #5 or not.

Any plan will obviously have to go beyond one player. McDonald just feels very ‘Seahawks’ though and could be the primary alternative to Anderson with the other pick in round one.

There are other questions to consider here.

Is the arm length for Calijah Kancey a deal-breaker or not? Obviously Kancey isn’t Aaron Donald — but they share a very similar physical profile. Donald led Brandon Staley’s league-leading defense in LA. Is it totally out of the question that Kancey could similarly play beyond his size? I like him a lot but it’s hard to create expectations on anything like a Donald-level. Still, he’s another player Seattle will surely do a lot of work on. They do talk a lot about length on the D-line though and Kancey is expected to measure with short arms.

Can Adetomiwa Adebawore or Keion White produce enough impact as rotational players for the defensive front?

Are the second-tier defensive tackles good enough to really excel? Is there anything special about Keeanu Benton, Cameron Young, Zacch Pickens, Moro Ojomo, Siaka Ika and Byron Young (Alabama)? How is Mazi Smith’s arm length and do you factor that in if he tests as well as any defensive tackle not named Jordan Davis?

How do you combine a draft pick (or picks) with free agency?

I’d like to see a splash — and think one is warranted. One of the key benefits of trading Russell Wilson should’ve been the flexibility to go and land a key free agent or two this year. This will be almost impossible if they give Geno Smith a big contract, even with a lower year-one cap hit.

Thus, we can all appreciate that the best we can probably hope for is another Uchenna Nwosu level signing. Who fits that bill? Two names that spring to mind are Derrick Nnadi and Zach Allen. Neither will tilt the balance but they can produce. It does just feel like the Seahawks need more up front, however.

That’s why it feels to a lot of people that it could end up being — re-sign Geno Smith, go defense at #5 (and maybe #20 or #38). Or — go quarterback at #5, get someone who knows your scheme and can start quickly (eg, Will Levis) and then add some veteran D-liners. To be fair, you can build cases for both plans. I think one has greater potential for short-term growing pains and long-term success (quarterback at #5) but the other likely makes you more of a shorter-term threat with questions about the future at quarterback (and whether you will be good enough to actually be anything more than playoff also-rans). The Seahawks might need to pick their poison.

5. If you don’t go quarterback at #5, how do you add to the position?

The obvious answer is Hendon Hooker. I think there are enough doubts about his deep accuracy, age, injury situation and helpful Tennessee scheme to wonder whether the Seahawks (and other teams) will be that interested in him. I have reservations. Yet he also has a high degree of physical upside, maturity, college production and traits (huge hands) that teams like the Seahawks pay attention to.

I can well imagine a scenario where the Seahawks are inclined to go quarterback at #5 unless Will Anderson lasts. Feel free to add Jalen Carter’s name too, provided they get the necessary character reassurance (and trust me, they will seek it).

If they take that mindset, they might pivot to taking Hooker to make sure they add a signal caller later on.

This situation meshes better if the Seahawks retain Geno Smith. Hooker almost certainly won’t be ready to compete to start in 2023 and will need to continue rehabbing his knee, before learning a new system and getting back to 100%. He’s a redshirt draft pick and if you need to open up a competition at quarterback, he probably wouldn’t be part of it this year.

If Smith comes back he would be the unchallenged starter to begin the season and it would give you a chance to just sit Hooker, let him learn and recover and be part of the competition in 2024.

It’s not a stretch to imagine:

1. The Seahawks sign Geno Smith to a new contract
2. They take a defender at #5
3. They plan to draft Hooker on day two

It wouldn’t be a major surprise if the Seahawks used the 53rd pick on Hooker — the exact same pick the Eagles used on Jalen Hurts.

You would still get three years of quality cap control out of Hooker. If he was PUP’d for 2023 you could also get an extra season of manageable RFA protection, just as the Seahawks are going to receive with Darrell Taylor.

This isn’t necessarily what I would do because I much prefer the four quarterbacks at the top of the board. I also think there are enough good defensive players at #20 and #38 to feel like you can take one of those QB’s at #5. That said, it’s possible the following occurs in a pattern leading the Seahawks to Hooker:

1. The market comes to Seattle with Geno Smith
2. The D-line market goes against Seattle in free agency
3. They discover it’s likely that three QB’s come off the board in the top-four
4. They decide to take one of the top-two defenders at #5
5. They target Hooker in order to make an investment at QB

This approach would probably mean the Seahawks taking further ‘shots’ at the quarterback position in future years in a similar range. That’s something, for example, the Packers have done and that’s Schneider’s background.

Again though, it comes down to the first question. Does Schneider see a quarterback at #5 he has to have?

Overrated talking points

What will they do at center?

I think this has become a bit of an obsession among Seahawks fans. There aren’t actually that many quality centers in the NFL and the way people go on about Creed Humphrey you’d think only the Seahawks passed on him. He lasted to the 63rd pick.

Do the Seahawks need to be better at center? Yes. Have other teams ‘plugged guys in’ using this scheme? Yes.

Do they need to force things with a high draft pick? No, absolutely not.

I don’t think this is a particularly exciting center class and with Sedrick Van Pran returning to Georgia, they’d be best served looking for a solid veteran. John Michael Schmitz has become a trendy round one projection for Seattle but as I noted here, I think that would be a big reach.

I continue to think Garrett Bradbury would be the ideal solution based on profile. To me he’s another ‘Uchenna Nwosu’ level free agent in terms of price and potential.

Can you get a center later on? Yes — and I think the man I interviewed yesterday, Penn State’s Juice Scruggs — could be an option there.

What do they do at right guard?

If there was an opportunity to draft a top-level guard I’d be all for it but I don’t see any in this class, contrary to what’s being suggested in the media. The Seahawks can find scheme fits later on and should be able to follow what worked for the Rams — shifting college tackles inside to execute the system.

Let’s not forget — LA’s offensive line led the league in a number of categories for a few years before injuries decimated their unit in 2022.

If they see an opportunity they can’t miss — then fine. I think it’s at least possible they could view someone like Dawand Jones as the clear BPA at #20. That could lead to a shift inside for Abraham Lucas. However, Lucas is one of the big success stories from 2022 and they’ve already moved enough linemen around.

I would guess this is a situation that could be resolved by re-signing Phil Haynes (EDIT — the Seahawks just announced they have re-signed Haynes to a new one-year deal) and then drafting someone. Matthew Bergeron, Jordan McFadden and Tyler Steen could be solid guard converts. Nick Broeker, Nick Saldiveri and McClendon Curtis could also produce value. I also think teams might view Joe Tippman as a guard and he is going to be one of the best testers at the combine — at any position.

Get another cornerback!

We’ve seen too many mocks projecting the Seahawks take a cornerback early. This will likely be dealt with in the usual way — draft and develop in the middle or later rounds. It’s a deep group at corner so there’s little need to draft a player early. It’s likely Michael Jackson will be back anyway.

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This is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

With the season over, hope for next year springs eternal for all 32 teams.  Fans are focusing primarily on two questions: “How did this year’s teams get to the Super Bowl?” and “What do we need to do to get there next year?”

There are several ways to accomplish it but from an organizational perspective there really is only one overriding way to ultimate success.

Teams need to generate a high level of value from their roster.

It is the same for the professional football world as any business:  to get to the top of the game, you need to generate a bigger return than what you pay out.  The bigger the return, the more successful you will be.

The one big difference in the NFL is there is a salary cap that levels the playing field of expenses.  The richest and the poorest teams alike are capped in how much they can lay out in payroll each season.

That just serves to underline the need to create value on your roster even more.

The two Super Bowl teams this year have generated extreme value on their roster in completely different ways.

Philadelphia have Jalen Hurts on a rookie contract and they are leveraged up to their eyeballs.

Kansas City have top stars outperforming their big contracts in Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones and have supplemented their roster with some solid rookies.  Frank Clark has once again turned into one of the most clutch pass rushers in the NFL when the lights are brightest.

Indeed, there is more than one way to get to the top of the mountain.  With that in mind, I thought I would briefly look at the last four years of Conference Championship participants and chart the areas of extreme value they have created as an exercise to assess where the Seahawks are:

A couple notes before we dive in.  Admittedly, this is rather unscientific and includes a degree of subjectivity.  Not all of these categories are easily quantifiable.  

I also wanted to only credit teams with creating significant value in these categories.  Any team getting this far has good players and good coaches.  More is needed though.  A degree of return that pushes them above the other playoff teams.

To give some insight into the five categories:

Quarterback Value – this seems self-explanatory but there is a little more context needed than just the straight up case of having a rookie-contract quarterback and surrounding him with expensive talent.

Sure, you have Burrow, Allen, Mahomes and Hurts checking that box — but it is broader than that.  I also gave teams credit for getting great value from a quarterback on a below-market veteran contract as well.  

Tom Brady is the prime example here for playing at nearly half his available market rate.  

Also, Tennessee in 2019 is an intriguing case.  The Titans had Marcus Mariota making $21 million on the fifth-year tender but Ryan Tannehill and his $2.25 million cap number overtook him and helped the Titans go deep in the playoffs.

Leveraging – teams have created extreme value by borrowing heavily from the future.  

The Rams have not only restructured their biggest stars to create cap room more than once but they have also traded just about every first-round pick they have for star talent at key positions.  

Another example:  Last year, they sent a second and a third-round pick to Denver to acquire Von Miller and had the Broncos pay the bulk of his salary.  He contributed nine sacks, with four of them coming in the playoffs, with a cap hit of only $722k.  Miller left in the offseason to go to Buffalo.  Two high picks for a handful of games with a premium return and a very affordable cap charge?  A prime example of leveraging.

Likewise, the Eagles traded their first-round pick for a star player in AJ Brown.  

They have also used restructuring and void years to super-size their roster.  They had $65 million of dead money this year and have already accrued $37 million for 2023.  

Just one example:  they signed Hassan Reddick to a 3-year, $45 million contract in 2022.  

That pencils out to a clean $15 million per year, right?  No.  Look at how it is structured by the Eagles per OTC:

The Eagles structured this contract at the extreme end of aggression, realizing only $3.8 million in cap charges for Reddick in 2022.

What did the Eagles get for their $3.8 million?  19.5 sacks – 16 in the regular season and 3.5 in the playoffs.  That is extreme value.  

Even in 2023 they are only on the hook for $7 million.  

The price though?  $34 million in cap charges between 2024 and the future dead money from void years.

Reddick is just one example.  They have backloaded contracts with void years all over the roster.  For 2023-2028, the Eagles have already committed an incredible $131 million to void contracts.  That is cap space dedicated to players who will not be on their roster, all to field more talent in 2022 than the cap traditionally allows for.

I hope they are getting airline miles for using the company credit card that much.

Rookie Performers – this covers all non-quarterback players on rookie contracts that are having a serious impact on the team.  

It is not enough to have a handful of players on cheap contracts getting snaps.  They must be contributing to team success at a high level to generate enough impact.

Look at 2019 on the chart.

The Packers had Aaron Jones with 1,650 yards and 21 touchdowns for $695k.  Kenny Clark got seven sacks for $3 million.  Jaire Alexander emerged as a top corner with a cap of $2.7 million.

Tennessee had Derrick Henry with 2,140 yards and 20 touchdowns for $1.7 million, Harold Landry contributing nine sacks for $1.5 million, Kevin Byard emerging as a top free safety with six interceptions for $4 million, Jeffery Simmons as a rookie and Jack Conklin locking down right tackle for $2.6 million.

Kansas City had Chris Jones with nine sacks from the interior at $1.9 million and Tyreek Hill with seven. touchdown catches on $2.1 million.

And San Francisco, the plum of them all.  On rookie contracts that year:  Kittle, Deebo, Bosa, Warner, Buckner, and Armstead on his fifth-year tender.  Unreal.  I should have given them three x’s on that chart for how filthy they were.

Expensive Stars – You expect your highly paid players to provide value with their performance, along with that unquantifiable value of ‘making everyone around them better.’  Yet in this category, these players provided more pure value than even their big salary accounted for.

The Packers in 2019 got 29.5 sacks from the two Smiths in the first year of their expensive contracts.

In 2020, Aaron Rodgers threw an insane 52 touchdowns against only seven interceptions.

The Bills have gotten more than their money’s worth for Stefon Diggs.  

Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey for the Rams are the type of players you can pay handsomely, shape your entire defense around and still come out way ahead on value.

This year, Patrick Mahomes’ veteran contract kicked in and he counted $35.7 million against the cap but maintained his magnificent play, taking home the MVP and leading the Chiefs to a Super Bowl win.  All this despite losing Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins.

Coaching – I gave Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan marks for creating tremendous roster value through their coaching.

Shanahan has been able to coach this team to massive success with a litany of lesser-talented quarterbacks by designing a system that creates opportunities in both the run and passing game.

Reid has brilliantly navigated this team to take advantage of Mahomes’ arm talent and off-schedule ability and has found a defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo that gels with his team strategy in a way that deserves more recognition than it gets.

****

I want to be clear; these are not the only ways to reach as far as the Conference Championships.  There are other factors like strength of schedule, injury luck and turnovers.  

From a roster standpoint though — if you are not producing extraordinary value in at least two of these five areas — recent history demonstrates that you will not be having a deep playoff run.    

How do the Seahawks measure up?  What needs to happen for them to create significant value in at least two of these five fields in the near future?

Let’s start with the one that has been the hottest topic of debate in recent weeks…

Quarterback Value

The Seahawks have no quarterbacks on the roster currently.  Obviously, what they do in the next two months will dramatically affect the franchise and their prospects for 2023 and beyond.

We can all agree on the standard premise that drafting a quarterback and building a roster around him while he is inexpensive has tremendous potential to provide a big return.  Annually getting $30-40 million of play for three or four seasons on a rookie contract is a direct way to turbo-charge your roster.

Selecting a quarterback early in the draft does not automatically make it happen though.  Caveats apply.

First off, you need that quarterback to actually play well enough to provide that value.

Secondly, the front office needs to be very smart in building the team around that quarterback.  Just having extra cap to spend on free agents or retain your stars on veteran contracts does not automatically translate to putting a successful product on the field.

If the Seahawks choose to tie their future to a quarterback with the #5 pick in the draft, that is a great start.  But filling out the roster with middling veterans that struggle to generate a big return will not get them where they want to go.

Now let’s consider a different way to create value at the quarterback position:  bringing Geno Smith back on a veteran contract.

We will start with what we all can agree on – Smith had a much better 2022 than any of us expected.  He checked that box tremendously.  He might have been the Best Roster Value (veteran edition) in the entire NFL, doing what he did for a total of $7 million.  

However, the search for value needs to look forward now, not backward.

Can the Seahawks check that QB Value box by getting tremendous value on an investment in Geno Smith in 2023?

Yes, they can — but under some very limited circumstances.

Assuming the reports of a contract in the $30-35 million annual value range are true, to get extraordinary value they will have to sign him to a multi-year extension with a low 2023 cap hit.  

He will also need to provide them with a fantastic full season.  The Seahawks will need the Geno Smith they got for the first 10 games of the season in 2022 and not the Geno they got for the remainder of the season.  There will be considerable pressure to be consistently good in order to truly provide extreme roster value.

There is a heavy price to consider for that one potentially high-value season though.

Having a very reasonable cap hit in 2023 on a big contract inflates his 2024 and 2025 cap hits and means 2023 will very likely be the only year for the foreseeable future that we can check this box for significant QB Value.  Why?

Those bigger cap hits severely limit the potential for an outsized return from the game’s most critical position.  

To illustrate, Patrick Mahomes won the Super Bowl this year with the heaviest cap hit in history for a single quarterback – taking up 17% of the Chiefs’ cap this year with a hit of $35.7 million.  The next highest percentage?  Steve Young at 13% years ago.

Signing Smith with a workable 2023 hit means the next couple years of cap numbers will be between that range of 13-17% of the cap.

Brass tacks – will the 34–35-year-old Geno Smith be able to outperform a $30-40 million cap hit in 2024 and/or 2025?  To a similar degree that Patrick Mahomes outperformed his big cap hit this year?  Can he even come close?

To do so, that means Geno Smith will need to be very, very good in 2023 and then take a major step forward and perform as a top-five quarterback in the NFL for 2024 and 2025 to generate that much value.  

Is that something the team feels Smith can do?

It is hard to make the case that he will.  Very hard.  Even the sunniest of Seahawks fans to have to admit that is a lot to ask in order to reach the high altitude of a Conference Championship game.  The standard line of reasoning that ‘this is what you have to pay a quarterback these days’ is just not enough.

The Seahawks had a big dead cap hit of $26 million on Russell Wilson’s contract on the books in 2022.  They are now free from that burden.  Do they really want to spend that enormous roster resource on Geno Smith?

If Smith is a Seahawk in 2023, it could be reasoned that it’s your best shot to go deep in the playoffs because with a small cap hit you can check the QB Value box easily.  Yet counting on Smith to provide significant value against those far bigger cap hits in future seasons is a pretty steep hill to climb.  

It really narrows your margin for deep playoff success if you cannot get a massive return on the investment at the game’s most important position.

If the Seahawks decide to take this route with a big contract for Smith, they will need to either go all-in on 2023, or dramatically improve in other areas on the team with less cap space to do so.  That makes the climb even more difficult.

Leveraging

It’s very likely the Seahawks under this ownership and administration will not ever aggressively create value by borrowing from tomorrow’s revenue to buy significant roster returns today.

The administration prefers steadiness on their cap and roster to taking the bold risk of the daring acquisition.  There is a lot of value in that – the roller coaster ride of four-win seasons to 13-win seasons can leave your head spinning.  

Also, when you pay your bills with your credit card, that leads to a dangerous cycle.  What will you do when that credit card comes due and your next round of bills are due?  The easiest route is to pay the credit card off and then pay your bills with the credit card again, repeating the cycle.  

It is a process that does provide significant roster value in the here and now but a reckoning and an ugly roster reset every few seasons is virtually guaranteed.

The Seahawks have occasionally tried leveraging without much success.  They traded first-round picks for star players and have not received the return desired.  It is just not in their wheelhouse.

So that box will likely not be checked soon, barring some significant organizational change.

Rookie Performers

Now we are getting closer to their wheelhouse.

Nearly a quarter of their roster this year will be players on their rookie contracts.  Most of those will be playing roles of great importance for the team.  The Seahawks have set themselves up nicely to potentially check this box in 2023.  

Why do I say ‘potentially?’

Remember, we are talking about significant roster value being provided here.  Look at those examples I provided above.  We are talking about devastatingly good seasons from players making a very low wage.  Seasons that return 10 times their contract value, maybe more.

Can the Seahawks get that kind of return in 2023-2024?

Cross and Lucas have had commendable rookie years.  Yet to reach that high threshold of value, they need to take a very big step forward.  Eliminating key penalties, not tiring out in December and some more consistency in pushing defenders around are in order.

Kenneth Walker needs continue his progress.  Perhaps he can integrate some more pass-catching into his game this year.  Also, staying healthy will be critical.

Darrell Taylor will be in the last year of his rookie contract in 2023 but has a very affordable year of team control in 2024.  It is time to provide a season or two of major value to the roster by being a more consistent disruptor.

Tariq Woolen still has so much untapped potential.  Avoiding a sophomore slump is critical.  The Seahawks need to help him find a way to keep improving without forcing on a mental straitjacket with their system so that his incredible physical gifts and instincts are not inhibited.

Perhaps the Seahawks could go the Moneyball-type route, recreating a couple of All-Pro players in the aggregate?  Combining well above-average play from several of the players above with contributions from fine young players like Boye Mafe, Tre Brown, Cobe Bryant, and Dareke Young among others?

All that is before we talk about the impact talent the team will add in the draft this spring, with four very high draft picks on the board.

Optimism about this category being a check mark for the Seahawks is justified.  They are well on their way.

They will need to provide the team all the value they can because the next category might be troublesome.

Expensive Stars

The Seahawks’ four players with the heaviest cap hits in 2023 are Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.  Can any of those four provide a value far and above their cap hit?

Metcalf at $13 million in 2023 has the greatest opportunity to provide top-level bang for the buck.  He had a career-high 90 catches this year and had a terrific game against Jalen Ramsey and the playoff game against San Francisco was a nice step in the right direction.

To put a check in this box, Metcalf has to take that next step to being a truly dominant player.  We have seen him take over games.  This year we saw him be a chain-mover as well as a dominant downfield threat.  Yet his ceiling is still yet unreached.  A 110-catch, 15-touchdown season is within his grasp.

He will need to get there in order to threaten this top-value category, as he counts $53 million against the cap in 2024 and 2025.

Tyler Lockett has consistently been one of the best values for the Seahawks over the years.  Due to the team’s eagerness to extend him ahead of the market and Lockett’s acceptance of their overtures, he is regularly outside the top-15 wide receivers in annual contract pay.

There will not be a negative word spoken about Lockett here.  However, after a $16 million cap hit this year, he counts $47 million against the cap in 2024 and 2025.  The Seahawks will happily take the career value he has provided but can he vastly exceed that value in the next three seasons?  It is hard to say he will.  However, he is the least of the Seahawks’ worries when it comes to expensive veterans.

We now come to the two safeties, who hit the cap this year to the tune of $36 million currently.

Can they provide great value on the field relative to their cap hit?

No.  They cannot.  

Adams has been unable to stay on the field.  Recovering fully from his injury in time to play (and play well) in 2023 is a very tall order.

Diggs’ value has been vastly diminished, between a horrific injury he clearly struggled to recover from in 2022, to the lack of talent in the front seven, exposing his occasional poor tackling and giving him more responsibility than he can reasonably carry.

You can point to his leadership and the fact that the Seahawks were one of the better teams in the league at defending his territory in the deep middle as providing value.  Yet he hits the cap at $18 million this year.  Providing a huge return on that investment just is not on the cards.

The absolute best-case scenario is that Diggs fully returns to form and the Seahawks approach Adams and rework his contract and cut his cap hit for 2023 way down.  He then fully recovers from a torn quad and delivers a superior season for the team without any major lingering effects of that injury.

It is possible but very, very hard to see happening.

Here is the challenge for the Seahawks in this category — Metcalf and Lockett will at least hold their value.  Providing a massive leap might just be too much to ask though.

For the safeties, they are so highly compensated and their ability to provide serious value so in question, they might actually prove to be a negative value.  It is more than the binary ‘yes or no’ answer to the question of whether they provide value over and above their cost.  They are very likely to be a drag on the team’s roster, potentially negating gains in other areas.

Their best route to being able to find value here might be to sign a big free agent or two and coach them into outperforming the typically lower-hit first year of their cap number by a wide margin.  Not unlike what the Packers did in 2019 with the two big pass rusher signings.  The Packers saw a need, they attacked it vigorously and were handsomely rewarded.

Coaching

Pete Carroll has been a very effective coach in many ways over the years.  Since providing tremendous value by selecting and developing very inexpensive players into stars early in his time in Seattle, however, he has not been able to bring major roster value over and above what other coaches are doing.

Conclusions

As you can see, the Seahawks at this time are set up with a strong possibility to return big value in only one of the categories in the near future.  Their outstanding rookie class of 2022 has energized the team and shown the fanbase that they are building something.

Are the Seahawks good in several areas on their roster?  Yes, they are.  However, if they have serious designs on a deep playoff run, “good” will not pass muster.  They need more.

Both Pete Carroll and John Schneider have spoken about the decisions they will have to make this offseason.  They both acknowledge some of them will be tough.  It is confidence-inspiring that they made two very difficult decisions last year rather than prolong the franchise’s descent into mediocrity.  The draft haul and the team’s performance in 2022 rewarded those decisions handsomely.

Does that success change their long-term plan?  They have to decide whether it does and very, very soon.

All decisions carry a measure of risk.

Giving Geno Smith a big contract and hoping he can outperform the moderate cap hit in 2023 and the big hits in 2024 and 2025 carries high volume of risk.  There is simply not a thorough enough record of performance to move forward with absolute confidence that he will continue to ascend to the top of NFL.

Let’s not fool ourselves, drafting a quarterback and plugging in a stop-gap like Drew Lock also carries significant risk.  If they take that route, the chances that the team will be truly competitive in 2023 are not great.  The team will likely endure some criticism if they regress and particularly if Geno Smith goes to another team and plays well.

However, the opportunity cost of having the #5 overall pick in a draft with four top quarterback prospects measured against the risk of Geno Smith regressing significantly on an expensive veteran contract cannot just be ignored.  It must be considered as a real, viable option to gain significant roster value — and not just for 2023, for the next five seasons.

The upcoming Scouting Combine will likely give us some more clues we will be able to parse about their thinking.

This season, the full proceeds from trading Russell Wilson will be entered into the history books.  The Seahawks will be molded for the next 5-10 years based on the decisions they make.  Creating value over and above what they pay should drive every major decision they consider.

Not as sold on the interior O-liners as others are

A lot of people have started mocking John Michael Schmitz in round one (often to Seattle). I also read a lot of mocks putting O’Cyrus Torrence in round one.

I just don’t see it.

I thought Schmitz had a decent Senior Bowl and there are some things he does very well. In particular for Seattle’s scheme — you see him chipping at the line then progressing to the second level well. He showed that in Mobile too. There’s a degree of aggression to his game which is appealing and he plays with a lot of effort. He has a chance to become a solid if unspectacular player.

When you’re talking about a first round center — a collectors item it has to be said — I think you need to see more.

Schmitz appears to be limited athletically. He isn’t a dominant force in college which makes you wonder about how he’ll make the step-up. He can be overpowered at times and his anchor isn’t top-level. He has a tendency to overextend and we saw at the Senior Bowl you can attack his shoulder and he struggles to take the correct angle, failing to cut-off the route to the QB. A lack of length doesn’t help. I didn’t think his tape was a very exciting watch.

A lot of Seahawks fans are on board with taking Schmitz at #38 and some are even open to the idea of taking him at #20 (or later in the first round after a small trade down). I can’t agree with that. I’ve given him a modest third round grade that I’ll revise up to a second rounder if he tests better than expected. I don’t think there’s a big difference between Schmitz and Luke Wypler or Joe Tippman (who is expected to have a great combine). I also think Cody Mauch showed in limited snaps at the Senior Bowl that his best position could be center at the next level — and he jumped off the screen during the game in Mobile when he lined up inside. I thought he was legitimately exciting as a center convert.

I even think someone like Juice Scruggs (who was the top O-line performer in 1v1’s at the Shrine Bowl) could provide far better value than taking Schmitz early. As noted earlier this week, I’d be very willing to take on Garrett Bradbury as a scheme-fitting reclamation project if the former #18 overall pick is available at a reasonable price in free agency. Either way, I’m not a fan of taking Schmitz in the top-40 and I’m not convinced the Seahawks are going to find their long term fix from this class.

Then there’s Torrence — possibly the most overrated player in the draft. I thought he had quite a poor Senior Bowl. He gained credit for a lot of losing reps. He received a lot of praise for reps where he was driven back 5-7 yards into the backfield. Typically that isn’t a win for the offensive lineman. There was also the ugly moment in the game where he was dumped on his backside by undersized linebacker Ivan Pace.

Torrence isn’t a great athlete. He had a sloppy frame at Florida and benefitted from a lot of support from the right tackle against key opponents such as Jalen Carter. He doesn’t overpower and smother defenders for a 337lbs lineman. To me he looks like someone who’s happy to hold blocks and contain. I wonder what the better athletes at the next level will do to him and I think he’s limited to blocking schemes that don’t ask their guards to move around.

I think we see players like this come into the league every year and they typically become average or below-average starters or backups.

I think in this draft McClendon Curtis would provide much better value. He has similar size at 6-5 and 331lbs. He has greater length (35 inch arms) and just looked more dominant at the Senior Bowl. He controlled and overpowered opponents and flashed more than Torrence did in the week of practise. I’d even say if you just want size at the position — take a chance on converting someone like Tyler Steen inside.

For a zone-blocking system I would prefer converted tackles Nick Broeker and Nick Saldiveri (both excelled during the Senior Bowl game). Matthew Bergeron and Jordan McFadden could provide mid-round value and we know the Rams’ blocking scheme traditionally favours guards who played tackle. I also think Ryan Hayes as a day-three pick has some developmental potential.

I can’t imagine Torrence going in the first round and I don’t think he’s the plug-and-play dynamo many think he’s destined to be. I think he’s an underwhelming player.

Quick-hitting thoughts on players

Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma) — I went back and watched two of his games and moved him up to round two. His run-blocking is a lot more impressive than I initially gave him credit for. He’s a waist-bender and looks like he has athletic limitations but if nothing else, he could be a road-grader in the running game.

Rashee Rice (WR, SMU) — he just lacked any kind of juice or suddenness running routes in Mobile and he didn’t look like much of a playmaker, so he moves down the board.

Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State) — what a performance in Mobile, hinting at the potential to be something special at the next level. After the combine, I might give him a legit first-round grade.

Adetomiwa Adebawore (DL, Northwestern) — nobody else got the D-liners fired up during 1v1’s like ‘Ade Ade’. His combination of special athletic qualities, long arms and low centre of gravity make for an intriguing package.

Juice Scruggs (C, Penn State) — controlled most of his 1v1’s at the Shrine Game. Yes, the competition wasn’t great. However — he stood out among offensive linemen and it’ll be interesting to see how he tests.

McClendon Curtis (G, Chattanooga) — big, long and aggressive — one of the standout performers in Mobile.

Cameron Young (DT, Mississippi State) — if he tests well I might shift him into round two. I’m not sure why more people aren’t talking about him. He has ideal size (6-3, 304lbs) and incredible length (35 inch arms). He put on a show in Mobile.

Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh) — he blew me away watching tape, much like Tyjae Spears. Abanikanda has a great frame, superb burst to accelerate from defenders in the open field, he has excellent cut-back ability and he can drive through contact. A very interesting player who should be on our radar at the combine.

General draft thoughts

This class is lacking in a number of areas. There isn’t a left tackle worthy of a top-10 pick. There isn’t a receiver you can comfortably say deserves to go in the top-10. We might see a cornerback sneak into the top-10 but it might be a bit of a reach.

Your blue-chip players basically come down to four quarterbacks, two defensive linemen, one running back and a tight end. At least in my opinion, pre-combine.

It doesn’t really matter for the Seahawks though. With the #5 pick they are guaranteed to be in position to draft one of the top-four quarterbacks or one of the top-two defensive players. This is a really attractive position to be in.

There’s even better news. I have nine players I’ve given ‘legit’ first round grades (would be first rounders any year) and a further 14 players with ‘fringe’ first round grades (would be happy to take them in the first round).

Basically, the Seahawks should be able to get a good player at #20. I wouldn’t pay much attention to these mocks that put Bijan Robinson in the 20’s (he’ll be the top player on many boards) but the realistic options include aggressive, quick linebacker Drew Sanders, the two hulking offensive linemen Dawand Jones and Darnell Wright, the brilliant interior rusher Calijah Kancey and classic Seahawks-style pass rusher Will McDonald.

As I’ve been discussing this week, I think McDonald is a player to put a ring around. He is exactly the type of player the Seahawks tend to love at his position. He’s 241lbs with 35-inch arms. He’s expected to jump a 42 or 43-inch vertical. He set a school record for sacks.

They already have Darrell Taylor, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe on the roster so whether they want another EDGE type remains to be seen. Yet McDonald showed at the Senior Bowl he has the rare qualities to bend around the arc and straighten to the quarterback with incredible balance and explosion. He’s strong for his size. He has a killer spin-move that we saw in Mobile when he beat the excellent Wright of Tennessee on back-to-back reps.

If you’re looking for special, difference-making traits — McDonald has them.

Seattle’s pressing need defensively is to get better in the trenches but as they try to create a defense that can scare opponents — it’s hard not to look at McDonald and think they’ll love what they see.

Can the Seahawks improve defensively if they take a quarterback at #5?

Undoubtedly, yes.

They could take McDonald at #20 to get a defender with elite-level traits. They could select Keeanu Benton at #38 — or perhaps after a small move up the board to ensure they get him.

You could keep adding. Alabama’s Byron Young continues to be underrated by many. Cameron Young at Mississippi State had a very good Senior Bowl. Moro Ojomo has intriguing potential at Texas.

I still believe if the Commanders tag DaRon Payne with the intention of trading him — you should be ready to offer a deal using one of your second round picks. That would immediately inject proven quality into your defensive front, taking the pressure off the draft. It would take a pricey contract but they’re going to have to spend to elevate to the next level. Payne is at a good age (he doesn’t turn 26 until May).

So while many people think the only right thing to do is pour resources into the defense — you can plausibly add a young, talented quarterback for the future and still reinforce your D-line.

That doesn’t mean I’m against taking a defensive lineman at #5. I understand the argument and will not criticise the Seahawks if they do that. I think John Schneider deserves some faith when it comes to quarterbacks. If he passes on a player, it won’t be because they’re neglecting the position.

I also hope fans give him the benefit of the doubt if he does take a quarterback. It’s extremely viable to add a young QB at #5 and still improve your defense.

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Tyree Wilson is a common pick for the Seahawks among the many mocks on the internet.

It makes some sense. Defensive line is a big need. Wilson has incredible size and length and we know the Seahawks put a lot of emphasis on length when it comes to defensive linemen.

However, it feels like every mock is making the same pick for Seattle and several refuse to seriously consider the possibility that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback.

You usually see a reference to Seattle retaining Geno Smith and therefore, the position will be addressed. Job done. Nothing to see here.

That to me is an error. Even if Smith signs a new deal, it’s still very plausible that the Seahawks will draft a quarterback too.

A few days ago we highlighted an article by Bob Condotta in the Seattle Times, discussing this possibility:

As noted, the Seahawks may not want too much of a long-term commitment (with Smith) and will want to assure they can structure the deal in a way to allow them to address their other issues.

And a two- or three-year deal — especially if there is a void year at the end — doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t draft a QB in the first round. Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $20.5 million deal.

In other words, the Seahawks can take care of the present while also looking to the future. And that may well be the way they go.

In many cases it almost feels like a moot point that Smith will stay in Seattle. Some articles don’t even reference quarterback as a need — despite the fact that currently there isn’t a contracted QB on the roster.

Yes — the language surrounding a Smith extension is positive. Both player and team are making the right noises publicly. Let’s not forget, though, that similar things were said about Frank Clark (“He’s not going anywhere, Frankie’s a Seahawk”) and Jadeveon Clowney (“it’s our priority to keep him”).

In both cases there was a real desire to retain both players, right up until the point the price became too high. Then the Seahawks moved on, without hesitation.

This is the same team that labelled the Russell Wilson trade talks ‘a media creation’ (they said what they needed to say). They also cut franchise-favourite Bobby Wagner the moment his salary became unaffordable. This was despite the continued public praise for Wagner during press conferences and the undoubted respect they had for him as a player and person.

So really, we can take any public comments with a pinch of salt. The reality is Geno Smith will have a price just like Clark, Clowney and Wagner. If the price is too high, they’ll move on.

For the last few years it’s been a difficult negotiation just to get Smith back as the backup. He has had a tendency to only sign deals weeks after the market opens.

Here are the dates when he re-signed year-to-year:

2019 — May 15th
2020 — May 20th
2021 — April 22nd
2022 — April 19th

Take last year for example — free agency officially began March 16th. It took over a month for him to agree terms with Seattle, provoking a slightly irked Carroll to make a public nudge to Smith about signing a contract, when the Seahawks were his only realistic shot to start.

Unless they make a terrific offer — or Smith senses his best offer is in Seattle and doesn’t want to squander it — this could be a tricky deal to negotiate and it could take some time.

A layer of intrigue has been added with Tampa Bay appointing Seattle’s QB coach Dave Canales as their new offensive coordinator. Canales hasn’t been a hot candidate for coordinator jobs in the past. He was touted for Seattle two years ago, before they hired Shane Waldron. As far as I’m aware, he has no serious experience in play-calling.

It’s very easy to imagine the Buccs going after Smith to lead their team. Unlike the Seahawks, they don’t have a top-five pick. Todd Bowles coached Geno in New York. They also need a veteran replacement for Tom Brady. Despite being in cap-hell, they have a veteran, expensive roster. They’ll either need to painfully blow everything up or go the same route as New Orleans by restructuring contracts.

In a winnable NFC South and having committed so many of their players to new deals, they feel like a prime candidate to try and stay competitive. Least of all because the Head Coach is on the hot-seat this season and the GM is unlikely going to be able to pitch a major rebuild and a terrible losing season, by getting rid of so many franchise-favourites in their prime years.

Now they’ve appointed Smith’s positional coach to lead their offense and will presumably be tapping into Seattle’s scheme and system, it’s a no-brainer they’ll make a run at Smith.

They are a slightly desperate franchise and might be more inclined to tempt him away from Seattle with a better financial package. It’ll be interesting to see if the Seahawks get into a bidding war.

As noted a few days ago — last summer they claimed they had ‘two number one quarterbacks’ in Smith and Drew Lock. It might be time to prove that wasn’t a fib and commit to Lock as your bridge.

There’s also this from ESPN’s Brady Henderson recently, discussing how the Seahawks might approach their negotiation with Smith:

The Seahawks, meanwhile, no doubt want to re-sign their Pro Bowl quarterback, but they have an offensive system they believe to be QB-friendly. They also believe there are potentially viable alternatives on more affordable contracts should Smith’s asking price get too high for their liking.

I think it’s clear nobody should be assuming Smith is definitely going to be back.

Back to the point on mock drafts — you can at least see why it should be more of a consideration that the Seahawks might draft a quarterback. The only prominent mock draft to do this recently is Mel Kiper’s. He gave Seattle Will Levis at #5.

This might’ve been Seattle’s intention all along.

The Geno Smith story has been interesting for a lot of reasons. Yet it’s highly unlikely the Seahawks dealt Russell Wilson without a clear plan for the future at QB. They didn’t do much of anything to address the position in 2022. They acquired Lock in the Denver deal. They re-signed Smith to a cheap one-year contract. They didn’t get involved in the Baker Mayfield trade stuff and they didn’t draft a quarterback, despite a number of options being available in the middle rounds.

Speak to anyone before the 2022 season began and the consensus belief was the Seahawks were biding their time and waiting on the 2023 quarterback class.

If they were in position to draft a QB — great. If not, they had sufficient stock to trade up and get one.

Are we really saying one season of Geno Smith was enough to completely change their plan, assuming they had one? That they’re now convinced the best thing to do is ignore the QB position in the draft, despite the rarity of being able to pick in the top-five? That Smith, who turns 33 this year, is good enough to build around for the long term? Even despite the fact his form took a turn for the worse towards the end of the season?

I think a more realistic scenario is the one Condotta mentioned in his article this week. Smith simply provides the Seahawks with a bonus option. If you re-sign him, there’s no pressure to start a rookie immediately. Yet you still plan to draft someone for the future, essentially getting the best of both worlds at the most important position in football.

You re-create the situation you had in 2012. You paid Matt Flynn, brought back Tarvaris Jackson then drafted Russell Wilson. You open up the competition and let the best man win.

It’s hardly far-fetched to believe they might do that again — with Smith, Lock and a rookie.

In this situation you’re not deviating away from any plan you might’ve had when you dealt Russell Wilson. You’re simply adapting the plan to include Geno Smith as a viable starter beyond 2022.

The idea would need Smith to be prepared to sign a contract matching Seattle’s budget. That would mean a low cap-hit in 2023 and an out for the team after this season. This is vital anyway because the Seahawks only have $19m in effective cap space and have a lot to get done to fill out their roster.

It could also mean major financial benefits to Smith if he excels under the new deal. This could come partly through incentives. The greatest incentive could be a bigger cap-hit in 2024 that he would earn through playing well in 2023. Thus, even if the Seahawks decide to move on, he could be dealt to a new team who would pay the handsome amount.

That would seem to be a realistic plan for both parties. Yet amid talk of Smith wanting $40m, revealed last week by Dave Wyman (who starts a weekly hit with John Schneider on his radio show today — just saying) — it could be that Smith wants jam today. That would open the door for a team like Tampa Bay to offer a bigger commitment, meaning the Seahawks would have a decision to make.

These things aren’t even considered with most mocks. This kind of conversation isn’t really being had at all. It’s mostly assumed Smith will be back and there’s not much discussion to the contrary. Someone might raise concern at a specific price-tag for Smith. Typically, it doesn’t go much further than that.

It’s not just Smith’s future that needs to be considered, though.

Tyree Wilson needs to prove he warrants a top-five placing. He has great length and size and we know the Seahawks really like those traits. However, his play is inconsistent and there is a degree of stiffness to his game. You can’t just draft a player in the top-five because he has an amazing frame. He needs to run a good 10-yard split, show he has explosive qualities in the vertical and broad jumps and it’d be nice to see strong agility testing through the short-shuttle and three-cone.

Do we even know if Wilson will test at the combine? He suffered a serious injury at the end of the season. He might not be healthy enough to test at 100%.

You can’t just draft a defensive lineman because you need one. Wilson has to show he warrants the pick.

We can take this a step further. I think there’s a very realistic chance Jalen Carter lasts to #5. Two days ago I highlighted the character concerns around Carter. Let’s just say there’s no smoke without fire. While it’s not the case that Carter is a bad person or anything like that — there are legitimate concerns in the league about his maturity, attitude, reliability and punctuality. Unquestionably he’s a very talented player. I would recommend people don’t dismiss what is being said by Todd McShay and Lance Zierlein, however.

This not only increases the chances of Carter lasting to #5 — it means the Seahawks would have a big call to make if one of the most talented defensive linemen to enter the league in recent years is available, yet they — like others — have serious concerns about whether he has the attitude and application to make the most of his god-given physical gifts.

The idea of simply taking a D-liner at #5 is not as straight forward as people think. If Will Anderson lasted, it might be an easier discussion to have. There are no character concerns there and he could be viewed as a rare safe, dynamic pick. With Carter and Wilson — I’d say there are a lot more question marks.

The other thing that makes me think Schneider always intended to draft a quarterback early this year is the players available. It’s a quarterback class that screams ‘Schneider’. As we keep mentioning — he loves traits. History suggests he’s willing to take a chance on physical talent — choosing to focus on what a player can become, not the flaws he has shown in college.

We all know Patrick Mahomes to be one of the greatest players to ever play the game. In his final year at Texas Tech he had a run of six straight games with an interception. He lost seven games in 2016. He had 25 interceptions in his final two seasons in college.

Schneider saw through all this and, reportedly, really liked Mahomes.

Josh Allen had 21 interceptions in his final two years in college. He had a completion percentage of just 56.3%. He had three games in 2017 with sub-100 passing yards and he started his final season with six picks in his first seven games.

Schneider saw through all this and, reportedly, really liked Allen.

Russell Wilson had 25 interceptions in his final two years at NC State. He never had a completion percentage above 60% with the Wolfpack. He had 11 games at Wisconsin where he threw 255 yards or fewer — including six sub-200 yard games. He also lost three games in his final season at Wisconsin. He lacked prototypical height.

Schneider saw through all this and drafted Wilson.

Do you see the trend here? We all think of these three players as quality NFL passers. In college, they had significant flaws.

You know, just like C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson — who all happen to have exactly the kind of physical traits Schneider has previously loved.

I also think there’s every chance he’ll also really like Bryce Young despite his lack of size — potentially meaning there are four quarterbacks he would take, while owning the #5 pick.

My prediction is there’s probably only one player right now — Will Anderson — who would push the Seahawks away from the four quarterbacks expected to go early in round one.

They might do more homework on Carter than any other player between now and April, to discover whether he joins Anderson in that bracket. If he’s too much of a character risk (a very real possibility, given how much emphasis they placed on character a year ago), I’m not convinced they simply pivot to Tyree Wilson unless he tests well. I think quarterback will very much be in the reckoning — even if they bring back Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock.

Just before the 2022 draft I spoke to someone ‘in the league’ who told me teams were smitten with Stroud and Young. The belief was this would impact decision making over the 2022 quarterbacks, who were mostly viewed as mid-round talents anyway.

That proved to be true — with only Kenny Pickett being selected before round three.

If Stroud and Young are the first two picks — or at least the first two quarterbacks off the board — that leaves two more spots before Seattle’s on the clock. Anderson will almost certainly be the first defender selected, due to his exceptional character/talent and the concerns surrounding Carter.

Then it comes down to who the fourth player is. It could be Levis. It could be Richardson. If the concerns are strong enough on Carter and Tyree Wilson tests well, he could even usurp the Georgia player.

I would urge anyone reading this, though, to be open-minded about the Seahawks potentially drafting Levis or Richardson (or Stroud or Young if they last — with Young more likely to last due to his size).

Levis is everything Schneider looks for in a quarterback. Great size, elite arm strength, fantastic athlete, obsessive about the game, loved by everyone at Kentucky. I can vouch for this because I’ve spoken to people about him and personally interviewed Levis myself:

Adding to that is his experience playing in Seattle’s offense in 2021 under Liam Coen and the likelihood he understands the terminology and concepts already. The year under Coen is likely to be the basis for most evaluations of Levis across the league, rather than the car-crash he had to experience in 2022 where his offensive line couldn’t block anything, he lost his top receiver, his running back served a suspension and he played most of the season with a broken toe.

Richardson also has the traits and tools dreams are made of. He might need time and seasoning — but if you re-sign Geno Smith he would get time and seasoning. It’s not unfair to say Richardson has superstar potential and while he’s far from perfect after just one season starting in college, he has the tools and potential to be one of the faces of the NFL. You can’t say that about many players.

The other thing to note is there’s enough depth defensively to improve that side of the ball with your other picks at #20, #38, #53 and #84.

Will McDonald looks like the definition of a Seahawks edge rusher. From the 35-inch arms to the expected 42/43-inch vertical and the dynamic ability to bend-and-straighten to the quarterback — it’s like he was made to play for Pete Carroll’s defense.

Frankly it won’t be a surprise if he’s rated as Seattle’s #2 EDGE prospect behind only Will Anderson. He could be available at #20 and I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a big ring around his name on Seattle’s draft board.

From Keion White to Adetomiwa Adebawore and Keeanu Benton — there are likely to be players in the top-40 with talent and impact potential available.

There are also attractive, underrated players such as Cameron Young and Alabama’s Byron Young who can bolster the defensive front.

Plus if they don’t re-sign Geno Smith, there will be more money to spend on defensive players in free agency.

So please — if you are writing a mock draft in the future, at least give greater consideration to putting a quarterback at #5. It’s more likely than you think.

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Since the end of the season almost all the talk has been about Geno Smith’s future and what the Seahawks should do with the #5 pick.

It’s time to talk about free agency.

The Seahawks have been frugal spenders in the Schneider/Carroll era. They tried to accelerate their initial build in 2011 by signing Sidney Rice, Zach Miller and Robert Gallery. They’ve dabbled with big free agency moves since then (T.J. Lang for example) but haven’t made a splash. They’ve not been afraid to make big trades, though.

It says a lot that Uchenna Nwosu’s two-year, $19m contract is the most expensive per-year that they’ve given an outside free agent.

Is it time to return to 2011 and make some big moves?

You’ll hear people insist the Seahawks ‘won’t’ spend in free agency ‘because it’s not what they do’ without actually considering whether it is something they should do.

The evidence shows the best teams in the league make good moves in the market.

Cincinnati completely revamped their defense with the key additions of Trey Hendrickson and D.J. Reader in 2021, helping pave the way for a Super Bowl run.

The Eagles intelligently added Haason Reddick ahead of the 2022 season, before making further moves for Kyzir White and James Bradberry. Trades for A.J. Brown and Darius Slay also injected quality into the team.

The Chiefs made a splash for their offensive line, signing Joe Thuney to a massive contract in 2021. They also signed Justin Reid and aggressively traded for Frank Clark and Orlando Brown.

The 49ers made smart moves acquiring Trent Williams and Charvarius Ward — and their trade for Christian McCaffrey now looks inspired.

The Seahawks almost certainly aren’t going to be able to just draft their way to glory. Seattle’s Super Bowl winning team, after all, relied a lot on free agent signings Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril — while Rice and Miller were also part of that team and there were also big contributions from veterans that were acquired (Marshawn Lynch, Chris Clemons and, in the Super Bowl at least, Percy Harvin).

I appreciate there isn’t much money to spend ($19m in effective cap space) and a lot of what is available is going to be spent on keeping certain players — most notably Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock and Ryan Neal. They’ll get $6.5m more when they cut Gabe Jackson. I would also cut Quinton Jefferson (saving $4.5m) and Bryan Mone (saving $2.6m).

I would call time on Jamal Adams’ career in Seattle — making him a post-June 1st cut and saving $11m for 2023. Time for a fresh start for team and player. They shouldn’t be committing $36m in 2023 to Quandre Diggs and Adams.

I’d also lean into the $98m in effective cap space Seattle currently has stashed for 2024. Any deal with Geno Smith is likely to be backloaded with a small 2023 cap hit. I’d like to do the same to add some key free agents. This team needs an injection of talent. The Seahawks need to go and get their answer to Thuney, Reddick, Hendrickson or D.J. Reader.

The veteran market is bloated and it’s the place where good players get great salaries and average players get good salaries. That’s why you’ve got to box clever and make bold, direct moves for a small pool of players. You’ve got to be prepared to spend a little bit more than you’re comfortable with to get quality.

Over the years the Seahawks have gone for depth over quality. They’ll sign a lot of players on modest contracts. It hasn’t worked. It’s how you end up with Benson Mayowa as your DE1, an anaemic pass rush and an offensive line that up until 2022 was pretty awful.

This isn’t a free agent class with tons of great options but some exist.

These are the names I would target…

Lavonte David (LB, Tampa Bay)

A lot of people are going to look at his age (he turned 33 in January) and dismiss this. Don’t. David remains one of the absolute top linebackers in the NFL and would be a huge get for anyone who can lure him away from the Buccaneers.

At the moment Tampa Bay has the worst cap situation in the league. They are $58m over the cap. They will receive $24m in relief with Tom Brady retiring. Otherwise, they’re going to need to go down the same route as New Orleans and restructure a bunch of contracts. They are a veteran group without the scope to blow things up and rebuild.

One of the things they’ll need to do is sign a quarterback. This is the one other destination where you can imagine Geno Smith making sense. Head Coach Todd Bowles worked with Smith in New York and this week, they interviewed Dave Canales for their offensive coordinator job. Thomas Brown from the Rams is also another strong candidate and he comes from the same scheme in LA.

What I’m getting at is something has to give. A saving will need to be made somewhere. Despite David claiming he wants to finish his career in Tampa Bay (as you’d expect) it might not be financially viable.

The Seahawks should be primed and ready with a two-year deal that is good enough to persuade David to come to Seattle instead.

There isn’t a more violent, aggressive and dynamic linebacker in the league. Even at this stage in his career, David is flying to the ball like he’s in his 20’s. He’s constantly in attack mode and he continues to help set a tone on defense. His PFF grade of 85.1 ranked third among linebackers in 2022. If you’re wondering about his legs — his coverage grade of 88.0 ranked second only to Tremaine Edmunds (90.0).

He could lead the second level of the defense if Jordyn Brooks misses time as he recovers from an ACL. Otherwise, pairing Brooks with David would give the Seahawks a good-looking duo at a position that requires an injection of talent.

A contract worth $22m over two years could get it done. I’d be willing to go higher if needed. Whether David would have interest moving to the other end of the country remains to be seen. You just know what you’re getting with him.

Sell him a dream. Let’s see those recruiting skills put to work, Pete. This isn’t a great draft at linebacker so getting proven quality in free agency would be a huge get. There isn’t anyone like David out there, who can provide quality and leadership.

Trade for DaRon Payne (DT, Washington)

Seattle’s biggest weakness is up front in the trenches on defense. Rather than hope a rookie can come in and solve this problem — it’s time to be aggressive.

I can’t imagine any situation where the Commanders let Payne just walk off into free agency. Even if they only get a third round pick in return, it makes sense to franchise tag him and seek a trade. People talk about a future compensatory pick but you only get those if you don’t make a comparable move yourself in free agency. Making a trade for Payne, rather than gambling on getting a comp pick, makes 100% sense.

With 11.5 sacks in 2022 and an 11.8% pass-rush win-rate since 2021 — Payne would provide the impact Seattle needs. He can create much-needed disruption. If you do a deal for him early in the off-season, you’ve addressed one of the biggest areas of need before you’ve even got to the draft. Then, if you wanted to add Jalen Carter or another defensive tackle, you add to what you’ve already got. You’re not just relying on rookies.

It won’t be cheap to sign Payne but who cares? If he costs $20m-a-year, that’s only $2m more than you’re paying Jamal Adams and Quandre Diggs in 2023. Signing people like Quinton Jefferson for $5m isn’t getting it done. Adding someone with the proven ability to get sacks from the interior would be a huge help for the defense.

I’d seriously consider giving up a day-two pick for Payne if/when he’s tagged. He doesn’t turn 26 until the Summer. He’d probably cost as much as Javon Hargrave who’s just turned 30. If the Commanders want a first rounder, that’s a bit too rich for me. If they’re realistic about what they’re going to get in return — adding Payne would be a big plus.

Going into next season with Payne, Al Woods and Shelby Harris plus an impressive rookie rotating in would give you the platform for a better year in the trenches.

Garrett Bradbury (C, Minnesota)

Sometimes you just need a change of scenery. Look at Ethan Pocic. He received the third highest grade for a center in 2022 (79.0) according to PFF.

Bradbury hasn’t been a disaster for the Vikings, he just hasn’t justified the #18 pick in the 2019 draft. He’s been alright. Frankly, I’d settle for ‘alright’ at center in Seattle. His 67.5 grade in 2022 was good enough for 11th at his position. In comparison, Austin Blythe received a 51.9 grade.

I don’t think this is a center draft that will provide obvious solutions for the Seahawks. John Michael Schmitz is becoming a bit overrated. I have him graded in round three pre-combine and will explain why in more detail when I publish an updated horizontal board tomorrow. I don’t think it’s an exciting centre class. The one player I would say was worthy of a top-40 pick — Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran — opted not to turn pro.

I would happily take a chance on Bradbury who has the ideal physical profile for Seattle’s scheme. He’s a squatty 6-3 and 306lbs with great athleticism. He ran a 4.92 at his combine and added a 4.53 short shuttle. His body control and low center of gravity work well in leverage battles.

He’s familiar with Seattle’s scheme having worked for Kevin O’Connell in 2022. The terminology, therefore, will be similar. Bradbury had the best pass-pro grade of his career playing for O’Connell.

He turns 28 in June so he’s at a good age. PFF suggests he could earn a three-year deal worth $6m a season. I would pay that to see if he can upgrade from Blythe and produce a base-line consistency that is ‘decent’ at the position. They paid Blythe $4m in 2022 so it’s not a massive difference. If Bradbury produces his 2022 form for the next three years, it’ll be a good investment.

With these three additions, you would have the flexibility to take a quarterback at #5 if you wanted to (and I believe this is a much stronger possibility than most people in the media think). You could also keep adding to the defense. You wouldn’t need to spend a pick on a center and could focus on adding a right guard (there will be viable options in the middle rounds). More than anything, I’d argue you could focus on BPA with a lot of your picks. That’s one of the reasons why the 2022 class was such a roaring success.

I think the Bradbury signing is very realistic. I am less confident about David — who might simply take any old deal to stay with the only team he knows. It’s hard to be confident about adding Payne. Every fanbase in the country seems to want him. Micah Parsons is actively pushing for him to sign for Dallas. If he’s tagged, you’d have to be the team that outbids the others. It’s complicated.

There’s not much point writing an article, though, where you talk about free agency and don’t aim high. The goal should be to claim impact players. Your Reddick or Hargrave. Your Hendrickson or Reader. Your Thuney.

Trying to nickel and dime free agency hasn’t worked for the Seahawks over the last few years. There are always risks dabbling in the market but at what point do you just have to try something different? Especially when your defense was exposed as badly as it was in 2022.

These three signings alone won’t send you to the top. It’s about combining good drafting with good veteran additions. Both will be required.

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“The Jets, after acquiring the 26th pick, go pass-rush, taking Florida State’s Jermaine Johnson II, but it’s not one of the two pass-rushers the Seahawks have in mind.”

This is an exert from a brilliant article by John Boyle on Seahawks.com, shortly after the 2022 draft. The piece took us into the Seahawks draft room, revealing some of the players they were potentially targeting — and some they were not.

Many people, myself included, expected Jermaine Johnson to be a top-10 lock. He had a great season for Florida State. He dominated at the Senior Bowl. His combine performance was strong and he carried himself like an alpha on the field during drills.

A few people had him lasting into the teens — but there was nothing as dramatic as a fall to the end of round one. I thought he’d be a great option for the Seahawks but it turns out they had no interest. Character concerns were not discussed pre-draft but in light of his drop to #26 — they were then revealed.

It’s times like these that you realise for all the mocks and the prognosticating — we don’t get the information we need to complete a full picture on these players.

Scouts are around the college programs all the time. They know who works hard in the weight room, who is a leader, who lacks maturity. Teams get to interview players at the combine, often with psychological experts present. You can invite players to your facility for an official visit. No stone is left unturned.

For example, recently John Schneider was interviewed on 710 Seattle Sports and he made reference to watching interviews on YouTube to learn about individuals. Jim Nagy has talked about social media accounts, as has Lance Zierlein. In a live seminar discussing the way he scouts, Zierlein made reference to pouring over a player’s Instagram page to try and learn about the person.

We can also do some of this to try and get an angle on things — but we can never go as far as the teams.

That’s why we have to rely on nuggets that emerge in the media.

Todd McShay stated the following during an ESPN broadcast, discussing his first published mock draft:

“With Carter there are some character issues. Does he get along with everybody? What’s he like to deal with in the locker room? I know it’s early in the process but I’m forewarning everyone out there. Carter’s going to be a hot-button name when we talk about some of the intangible aspects of it. It’s not about his talent, it’s not about his size, it’s not about his explosive take-off or finishing as a pass rusher. It’s about the character. Do we want to bring that guy into the building?”

McShay received a lot of pushback for this online. You can certainly argue whether it’s right for a draft analyst to publicly question Carter’s character. It’s one thing for teams to have those concerns privately. It’s another thing to, as some might suggest, throw him under the bus.

ESPN published an article praising Carter’s off-the-field contributions days later, probably in an attempt to diffuse an awkward situation and not be seen to be crushing a young player internationally without balance.

However, I personally don’t see what the issue is. McShay is clearly only reporting what is being discussed behind the scenes. There was a lot of nonsense thrown at McShay — suggesting he was doing the bidding of teams hoping to initiate a draft-fall for Carter. It’s a ludicrous proposition. As if any team would pass on a prospect based on a back-and-forth between McShay and Mel Kiper on ESPN.

Lance Zierlein has since written the following in his scouting report for Carter:

Across the board, Carter checks out in a big way. However, his maturity will need to be vetted by each team as they make their evaluations.

Scouts say maturity has been an issue for him at times.

There’s also the well-publicised issue with conditioning, as highlighted in this video:

The bottom line is — his coach told him he had to improve his conditioning. Carter said himself his priority was to improve his conditioning when speaking last April. Then in the biggest games of the season — against LSU in the SEC Championship and against Ohio State in the playoffs, he looked as gassed as any player I’ve ever watched on a football field.

The off-setting point is that Zierlein also grades Carter as the best player in the draft. I suspect McShay has the same view. Personally I think Bijan Robinson is the most talented player — but Carter would be second.

Teams will need to weigh-up the pro’s and con’s and make a call. It means, for me, that Carter’s stock is more in-flux than people think. He could go in the top-three. He could last a bit longer than people think.

The Seahawks placed a big emphasis on character in the draft a year ago and Schneider re-iterated that on 710 Seattle Sports recently. It’s something to remember as many assume Seattle would automatically draft Carter and call it a job well done.

Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, Ken Walker, Abe Lucas. Their four high picks a year ago. All very motivated, very grounded people with the right attitude.

By all accounts, that doesn’t sound like Carter. McShay and Zierlein are not shock-jocks trying to make a headline. Most people don’t even know Zierlein’s scouting reports are available yet. He hasn’t made any fuss of what he’s said, which aligns with McShay’s comments. What we do know is both are highly respected with sources in the league at the highest level.

People like this actively questioning Carter’s maturity and locker room fit need to be listened to.

I find it strange how fans perceive drafting a quarterback to be ‘risky’ at #5 — but very rarely talk about the risk of taking Carter. If it’s simply a positional thing — why is it a ‘risk’ to try and find yourself a quality, cheap player at the most important position in football? I’d say that’s the opposite of ‘risk’. It’s opportunity.

The one thing you can say about C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson is there are no character concerns. None. Especially with Stroud, Young and Levis who are all heart-and-soul leaders, highly respected by their programs.

I found it interesting listening to an interview with Jim Nagy talking about the Seahawks. He spoke about the home-run nature of drafting Will Anderson if he somehow lasted to #5. Nagy spoke of Anderson’s character, passion for the game, intensity on the field.

I get the feeling that if Anderson was on the board, the Seahawks would be all over it. The talent plus character equation adds up. Nick Saban has often gone above and beyond to talk-up Anderson as a person and team-mate.

With Carter it’s always a case of he’s talented ‘but’ there are some concerns.

I’ve mocked him to Seattle because I think there’s a chance they’ll view the talent and need meshing together. If the top three quarterbacks are off the board by #5, plus Anderson, then I think there’s a chance the Seahawks will roll the dice on Carter. After all, they badly need someone like him to create havoc up front.

Again though — character matters.

For the first time yesterday I saw a mock that had Tyree Wilson ahead of Carter. If Wilson tests well at the combine to go with his unique length and size — I wouldn’t be surprised if that became a common projection.

It all works to make things interesting at #5.

I wanted to highlight this article by Bob Condotta of the Seattle Times, with a particularly interesting note on Geno Smith’s future and Seattle’s possible quarterback plan:

As noted, the Seahawks may not want too much of a long-term commitment and will want to assure they can structure the deal in a way to allow them to address their other issues.

And a two- or three-year deal — especially if there is a void year at the end — doesn’t mean the Seahawks can’t draft a QB in the first round. Seattle drafted Russell Wilson in the third round in 2012 after signing Matt Flynn to a three-year, $20.5 million deal.

In other words, the Seahawks can take care of the present while also looking to the future. And that may well be the way they go.

This speaks to what we’ve been discussing recently and comes from a connected and trusted source. Amid all the ‘pay the man’ talk on Twitter and in some sections of the media, in the last week we’ve seen this article from Condotta and Dave Wyman suggesting on his radio show (the same radio show John Schneider begins a weekly guest-spot on Thursday) that Geno Smith is looking for $40m a year.

The Seahawks have dabbled quite frequently in media negotiations in the past. It seems things are underway once more.

My guess is what’s written above is, precisely, Seattle’s thinking. They want to re-sign Smith but they also want the benefit of a low cap hit in 2023. They don’t want a big commitment for years. They will strongly consider drafting a quarterback in round one to be the future — with Smith being the bridge.

That has always felt like the best plan moving forward. As I keep saying — despite a lot of people criticising the quarterback class (especially Will Levis and Anthony Richardson) — there is a good quartet at the top. More importantly, three of them (C.J. Stroud, Levis, Richardson) have the tools that Schneider has typically sought — from Charlie Whitehurst to Russell Wilson and then Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

Schneider seems to worry less about flaws and more about potential and physical quality. Tilt-the-field talent.

I do think he’ll see a lot to like with Richardson. I think he’ll see even more that he likes in Levis — and I imagine he’ll be amazed, like we all were, with the world class showing Stroud put on against Georgia.

That should, in my opinion, secure Stroud a place in the top-two picks. If Levis gets out of the top-four — which is debatable — he could easily be Seattle’s man.

He literally played in the Seahawks/Rams offense in 2021 and shone. He will have an easier transition into the league as a consequence. Levis is adored by everyone at Kentucky — the staff, the players, the people working behind the scenes. Everyone thinks he’s great. He is a gym-rat who loves the game.

He has the exact kind of arm Schneider loves and he’s shown he can execute Seattle’s scheme at a high level. People spend too much time on a disastrous 2022 season where he lost his offensive coordinator, centre and right tackle to the NFL — plus his top receiver. He was left with a mess of a situation, he was sacked an incredible number of times and had to play most of the season with a broken toe.

Levis screams Schneider and Seahawks. It’s something to keep in mind as we go through the next few weeks — even if (when?) Smith is re-signed.

If they do take a quarterback at five, there will still be options to improve the defense. The more I watch of Will McDonald, the more I think he is everything Pete Carroll looks for in a pass rusher. It won’t be a surprise if he’s viewed as a ‘must-have’ at #20 — given his remarkable physical profile, amazing length, college production and outstanding Senior Bowl.

With two second round picks and a third round pick — they will have plenty of stock to also bring in a defensive tackle. Could McDonald and Keeanu Benton be a rookie equivalent to Troy Hendrickson and D.J. Reader in Cincinnati? Possibly.

I still think there’s a chance they will acquire a big name D-liner when the league year begins — possibly by trading for DaRon Payne (assuming he’s tagged) or DeForest Buckner, or by signing a veteran such as Javon Hargrave. We’ll see — but I think the Seahawks know they need to do something up front.

The Eagles should be Seattle’s guiding light. They have drafted well but they’ve also acquired well. They don’t make the Super Bowl without their free agent additions up front. They made trades for A.J. Brown, Darius Slay and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson.

The Seahawks will need to be open-minded about how they acquire players and that’s another reason for not investing mega-money in Geno Smith.

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Now that the season is over, I wanted to make some draft/Seahawks predictions…

Three quarterbacks to go in the top-four

The Colts and Panthers are not going to stand still. Chris Ballard and Scott Fitterer have spoken publicly about trading up. The Colts appear set to hire Shane Steichen, while the Panthers have already appointed Frank Reich — two offensive minded Head Coaches. Both teams have spent years searching for quarterback solutions and now need a firm, long-term investment.

It seems inevitable that both teams will trade up. Jeff Howe recently reported in the Athletic that the league consensus is there’s a very clear ‘top-three’ at quarterback. Trade into the top three any time over the next month and you’re guaranteed at least one of C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young or Will Levis.

A bidding war is likely to take place for the top pick. The Bears will almost certainly prefer to stay in the top-four and do a deal with Indianapolis in the AFC. Will the Panthers be aggressive enough to tempt Chicago to fall to #9? It’s possible.

Arizona is interviewing Jonathan Gannon for their Head Coaching vacancy. It’ll be interesting to see whether the Cardinals are open to trading down to #9 if the Panthers can’t strike a deal with the Bears.

The wildcard team will be the Houston Texans. They have appointed DeMeco Ryans, who enjoyed success in San Francisco due to a great defensive line. He’s also appointed an offensive coordinator from the 49ers — passing game coordinator Bobby Slowik.

Do they feel like the scheme can elevate a quarterback much in the way it elevated Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy? Can their scheme get the most out of Davis Mills? Would they sign Garoppolo? Could they take Will Anderson or Jalen Carter at #2?

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility but with an extra first (#12 overall) and third round pick this year, plus Cleveland’s first rounder next year, they have ample stock to build a defense without taking a defensive lineman at #2.

What does this mean for Seattle?

The good news is — if the Seahawks align with the league consensus that there are three top quarterbacks, as well as two excellent defensive prospects, at least one of those players is going to be available at #5.

I think John Schneider will be very open to the idea of taking a quarterback at #5. He has a history of being attracted to arm talent. He spent a lot to acquire Charlie Whitehurst. He loved Russell Wilson. Supposedly he had his eye on Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. It appears he’s willing to put flaws into perspective if the physical upside is legit.

The 2023 quarterback class has three big-armed, huge-upside players in C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson. Bryce Young doesn’t have a cannon but he’s very creative and talented.

As such, I do think Schneider will be attracted to this quartet. I also don’t think Geno Smith’s future will have any relevance on their decision at #5.

In 2017 the Bears signed Mike Glennon to a $45m, three-year contract. It was a big investment at the time. They declared him as the man to lead the team and appeared destined to go in a different direction in the draft, with the #3 pick. Then they traded up on draft day to #2 to guarantee they could select Mitch Trubisky (famously snubbing Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson).

Part deception, part-bridging to the future — Chicago executed a plan the Seahawks might try.

If/when the Seahawks re-sign Smith, the media (local and national) will immediately proclaim this as ‘job done’ at quarterback and will shut-off any conversation about drafting a quarterback. This will be a mistake. The Seahawks are building and if Schneider sees a quarterback he really likes — and if that player is available — he likely takes him.

Keeping Smith simply protects the Seahawks against missing out in the draft and taking a backwards step. You can’t go into the draft with no serious quarterback on the roster, hoping by chance someone you like lasts to #5. That would be a mistake and it’s one they’ll avoid.

Let’s assume they sign Smith to a contract that looks big when it’s announced but actually carries a lot of incentives and has a smaller cap-hit and an easy out for the team within a year. That wouldn’t, in any way, shape or form, prevent the Seahawks drafting a quarterback if Schneider sees the next top player he likes.

Don’t forget the Seahawks signed Matt Flynn to a reasonable contract and then let a rookie beat him out of a job in 2012 — essentially making the investment in Flynn redundant. That emphatically worked for Seattle so I don’t see any reason why signing Smith to a new deal would mean the Seahawks are definitely not drafting a quarterback at #5.

Signing Smith keeps all options open for the draft. They can select a QB and use Smith as a bridge. Or they can draft a top defensive lineman.

I would prefer to just go cheap with a bridge quarterback and avoid any future dead money or a big financial commitment. A year ago they said they had ‘two number ones’ at the position in Smith and Drew Lock. Maybe it’s time to prove that wasn’t a big fib? Sign Lock to a contract similar to Smith’s in 2022 and let him be the bridge. Use the cap saving to bolster other areas of the roster. Draft your future at the most important position.

However, I can also see an argument where three quarterbacks are gone by #5 and the Seahawks love a defensive lineman and decide to wait on a position where they have, to be fair, found solutions over the years.

Who could be a solution?

I’ve written about trying to emulate the Eagles and I think it’s a very fair point to make. They won four games in 2020 and nine games in 2021. They just contested a very close Super Bowl. They have shown the blueprint to go from making up the numbers in the playoffs to legit force.

It requires having talent across the roster — which they were able to achieve by avoiding paying a big quarterback contract.

The Seahawks are unlikely to be able to add enough talent in one off-season to be a Super Bowl team in 2023 but they can position themselves to be a more realistic threat in 2024.

Personally I think Stroud, Young, Levis and Richardson can at least do what Jalen Hurts has done for the Eagles. I suppose the question is whether the Seahawks think someone like Hendon Hooker can also do it?

Think of it like this. Let’s say the top three QB’s are off the board by #5. You can then draft one of Anderson or Carter at #5 or the fourth quarterback. I think either decision is justifiable — but if you think Hooker can essentially do what Hurts has done, could it push you towards drafting a top defensive lineman at #5 then waiting for Hooker later?

As I wrote last week, you can build a case around it. The Seahawks do appear likely to keep Geno Smith so drafting Hooker would give them a possible alternative from next year to be cheaper at QB. He’d have to red-shirt as he recovers from injury, meaning there’d be no camp drama. That won’t be the case if they sign Smith and then draft a QB at #5 — although as mentioned earlier — as we saw with Matt Flynn, the Seahawks are comfortable letting a rookie compete (and usurp) a more expensive veteran.

Hurts was the #53 overall pick in 2020. The Seahawks own the #53 pick this year. There’s some symmetry there, if they take Hooker in the late second.

It would give Smith the chance to prove he’s more than a one-season wonder, while also offering the Seahawks a younger, cheaper alternative for the future.

Hooker has a lot of appealing traits — including big hands (10 1/2 inches) and good athleticism. He executed the Josh Heupel scheme well and the Seahawks might think he can come in and do the basics well within their own system to produce results. He’s a high-character, competitive individual.

There are also some other things to consider. Hooker is already older than Hurts at 25 and he’s having to recover from a serious knee injury. I think the Tennessee offense made his life very easy and I’ve never seen so many wide-open throws.

Nevertheless — you get the point I’m making here. It comes down to the big picture of putting together an off-season.

It stands to reason the Seahawks might think it’s better to do this:

Re-sign Geno Smith
Draft a top defensive lineman at #5
Draft Hendon Hooker at #53

Rather than do this:

Not re-sign Geno Smith
Have more money for free agency
Draft a quarterback at #5
Hope to draft impact defenders later

I am not the biggest fan of Hooker’s and wouldn’t draft him as early as round two — although I embrace some of the positives in his game and respect what he achieved at Tennessee. Even so, I wouldn’t criticise the Seahawks for the plan above that has them going D-line first then Hooker. It might not be what I’d do — as a plan, though, it’s reasonable.

Hurts was not considered a big-time prospect when he came into the league and many questioned Philadelphia’s use of an important second round pick on him. He was very nearly a Super Bowl Champion and Super Bowl MVP.

Copying the Eagles could very well mean taking Hooker with the exact same pick Philly used on Hurts — believing if they can put the right supporting cast around Hooker, they can build in the way the Eagles have done.

John Schneider and quarterbacks

The other side to this, of course, is it’s a rare opportunity to pick this high and they didn’t trade Russell Wilson without a plan. I doubt that plan was to just see how it goes with Smith and Lock and see where they were in a year.

The feeling throughout last summer was the Seahawks aren’t going to acquire someone like Baker Mayfield or trade for another QB. They were going to roll with what they had, save their picks and look to draft a quarterback in 2023.

Schneider is from the Green Bay school of GM-ing. They love QB’s. Executives with the Packers’ DNA pride themselves on their quarterback picks.

If he thinks Anthony Richardson is the next Josh Allen, he’ll take him. If he sees Will Levis’ 2021 tape in Seattle’s offense and believes he can be a major player — he’ll take him. If he passes on either — we’ll know what he thinks about them.

Again — don’t ignore his history of really liking players with traits. One of the first big moves Carroll and Schneider made was to trade a third round pick to the Chargers for Charlie Whitehurst. As part of that deal, they also swapped second rounders — dropping a whole twenty spots to go from #40 to #60. It was a hugely significant trade fans and media often forget about.

Will it really be that surprising if Schneider is wowed by the arm of Levis or Richardson?

My hunch is they had a player or players in mind when they made that Wilson trade. My other hunch is they were prepared, if needed, to use their draft stock to go and get their chosen quarterback in this draft.

Perhaps they have adjusted their plan based on what happened during 2022? Namely the poor play of the defense and the surprising play of Smith? Or maybe they’re sticking to their guns and quite like the whole world thinking they’re desperate to re-sign Smith because they don’t like the quarterbacks in the draft?

We won’t have too long to find out — but it’s worth keeping an open mind because there’s a variety of possibilities.

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This interview is also available via ‘The Rebuild’ podcast