The truth about Jalen Carter & Will Anderson
I’ve seen people compare Jalen Carter to Aaron Donald and Will Anderson to Nick Bosa. I’ve seen people refer to them as ‘sure things’ and ‘safe picks’ — a no-brainer that the Seahawks should draft one of them if possible.
I don’t think any of these points are accurate.
So what is the reality?
Let’s start with Carter.
Anyone who studied Georgia in the second half of the 2022 season will have been impressed with his play. He did, legitimately, impact games. At times he was unblockable.
He wins so many reps with a first-step quickness that catches blockers off guard — then when he gains that initial advantage, he turns on the power and can drive through contact to push the pocket or burst into the backfield. His ability to convert speed to power — quickness into violence — is his greatest quality. He’s not a twitchy dynamo who slips blocks and is just too fast and sharp like Aaron Donald. He’s more of a bull-in-a-china-shop defensive tackle who shocks you with get-off and then is just too strong and disruptive to slow down.
There’s a reason why people have been projecting him as a potential #1 overall pick. Talent-wise, it’s a fair suggestion. Watching his 2022 tape late in the season, you could well imagine the Texans taking him at #1. He has excellent talent and potential and he could, eventually, turn into a very disruptive interior lineman — potentially in the Jeffery Simmons mould. Like Simmons it might take a couple of years of fine-tuning and development for Carter to reach peak performance (although Simmons was recovering from a knee injury during his rookie season).
There are some things that need to be acknowledged, however.
Production isn’t everything but it is true that Carter’s is limited. He only has six sacks in three seasons at Georgia and 18.5 TFL’s.
Let’s compare that to other highly drafted defensive tackles over the last few years:
Ndamukong Suh — 49.5 TFL’s, 24 sacks
Gerald McCoy — 33 TFL’s, 14.5 sacks
Aaron Donald — 66 TFL’s, 29.5 sacks
Marcell Dareus — 20 TFL’s, 11 sacks (in two seasons)
Fletcher Cox — 24.5 TFL’s, 7.5 sacks
Solomon Thomas — 24.5 TFL’s, 12 sacks (in two seasons)
Quinnen Williams — 26 TFL’s, 10 sacks (in two seasons)
Ed Oliver — 53 TFL’s, 13.5 sacks
Derrick Brown — 33 TFL’s, 12.5 sacks
Jeffery Simmons — 33 TFL’s, 7 sacks
It might not mean anything in terms of next level production — but Carter’s numbers don’t compare well to other defensive tackle’s taken very early.
There is a justification for this but it’s both a positive thing for Carter and a negative.
He has been spelled a lot at Georgia, limiting his playing time. He played 40% of the Georgia snaps in 2021. The Bulldogs were able to rotate their studs up front, with Devonte Wyatt (42%) and Jordan Davis (38%) also receiving limited playing time. Both were taken in the first round last year.
In total he received 396 snaps in 2021. He missed three games with an injury this season, meaning he had 308 snaps in 2022.
Thus, he arguably hasn’t been on the field enough to match the gaudy numbers we see from some of the names above. Aaron Donald, for example, was not in a rotation at Pittsburgh.
The negative side to this is — can he actually handle a bigger workload?
He was visibly gassed against Ohio State at the weekend. I also noted this on the blog during the SEC Championship against LSU. In that game he tired very quickly, then had a second wind.
His conditioning looks like a problem. He might come into the league, improve his stamina and this will be a moot point. We should also acknowledge, however, that it might not be as simple as that. Is he going to put the work in to improve his stamina and conditioning? Is he going to be able to handle the attention at the next level, receive those double teams and be able to work through it and stay impactful? Or is he going to be blowing heavily after half-time as we saw against Ohio State?
Is he gassed in games because he isn’t working hard enough to stay in the best shape possible?
It was slightly concerning to see how visibly exhausted he was. Carter was spent in the biggest game of the season in a way you don’t often see.
You don’t draft someone third overall to give them 40% of the snaps per game and worry about their fitness levels. You want them at the heart of your defense, playing a large bulk of snaps. If Carter can’t handle that, it’s a problem. The evidence suggests he is going to need to get some serious fitness work in to play a significant number of snaps.
There’s also this:
It’s notable that ESPN put out a complimentary article on Carter days before the Playoffs began. I suspect there was some push-back against Todd McShay saying what he did in the clip above and there was an attempt to make amends.
People have tried to argue McShay is a puppet for a team hoping to instigate a draft-day fall for Carter.
It’s a great conspiracy theory but almost certainly not true. For starters, teams don’t base their decision-making on things Todd McShay says on a mock draft segment on ESPN. They’ve been doing their homework on these players for years. They know which players have character concerns long before anyone in the media does. They aren’t sitting at home, watching Mel and Todd duke it out, then adjusting their grades.
If McShay is saying this, the reality is there’s concern within the NFL. It’s possible Carter allays those fears in the coming months. It’s also possible a team will ignore any character flags and take him anyway — believing it’s worth the risk.
However, what McShay said shouldn’t be ignored. He’s simply discussing publicly what is being debated internally.
As we weigh-up Carter as a prospect, a fitting description would be this — he’s an excellent physical talent who has the ability to be extremely disruptive from the interior. In the second half of the 2022 season he had spells where he was virtually unblockable. However, there are reported character concerns. His conditioning must improve. His production is also fairly underwhelming (but as we discussed, there may be reasons for that).
This is not the portrait of a ‘can’t miss’ prospect, destined to come into your team and change a bad defense into a good defense with his mere presence. There are clear risks involved. Anyone describing Carter as a ‘safe’ pick or a ‘sure thing’ has to appreciate that this isn’t the case.
On the conditioning point alone — if he can only play half a game for you, that’s not good enough to go in the top-five. If the character concerns are also legit, it’s a worrying mix.
Teams will be spending a lot of time in the coming months trying to work him out. I suspect he’s a player who could very well be in contention to go first overall. I also wouldn’t be surprised if he lasted a lot longer on the board than people think.
With Will Anderson, he had a fantastic 2021 season that had people wondering if he was one of the best pass rushers to play in college football for a generation. His production was remarkable — 31 TFL’s in a single season and 17.5 sacks.
Unlike Carter, Anderson played with a relentlessness that was exciting. He was aggressive and brutal. I remember wondering a year ago whether he wore #31 as a nod to Kam Chancellor. He carried himself with the same ferocious nature and every snap was played at 100%.
His 2022 season was quite different. We didn’t see the same intensity or production. His TFL numbers dropped from 31 to 17 and he had 10 sacks. These are still decent numbers but they were underwhelming for a player who achieved so much the previous year.
He also had some disappointing performances — including a flag-fest against Texas and he was shut-down by Tennessee’s talented right tackle Darnell Wright.
Gary Danielson at CBS went from describing Anderson in the most glowing terms to saying he was a ‘project’ near the end of the season. Likewise, he was beginning to say on broadcasts that Jalen Carter was a better player and more likely to be the first defender selected in the draft.
Public opinion was shifting and Anderson’s star has fallen slightly.
The truth is he’s still an excellent player but as with Carter there are a couple of question marks.
Alabama lets him get after it. There’s not a great deal of nuance to his role. Anderson puts his head down and plays in constant attack-mode. It’s one of the reasons why his TFL numbers are so high. He has a lot of plays where his only responsibility is to run head-first into the backfield and hit someone. A decent chunk of his TFL’s are unblocked snaps on cute little run attempts by the opponent. Anderson never gives them a chance to deceive him. He’s a missile into the backfield, hammers the runner and claims a TFL. He has many unblocked TFL’s.
He is a forward-moving player. Anderson has a lot of power in his frame and he’s clearly a good athlete. He does well to juke around blocks and once he finds an opening he’s adept at exploding to the quarterback or ball carrier.
He’s not just a space player though and that’s important to note. There’s clear evidence on tape of him stringing out run plays using good contain and he can engage a blocker on the move, stack and shed to make a tackle.
I do think, however, that the scheme he plays in is important.
When I see people comparing him to Nick Bosa — the reality is they are nothing like each other. Bosa is 266lbs — 23lbs heavier than Anderson. Joey Bosa was 269lbs at his combine and Myles Garrett was 272lbs.
Those three players are tailor-made to play the edge in a four-man front but they’re athletic enough to pretty much do anything.
At 243lbs, Anderson is not built to be a classic defensive end. He is built to be a 3-4 outside linebacker who needs to play in the same attack-mode role that Alabama created for him.
Typically a 3-4 OLB will need to drop and cover. Anderson isn’t very good here. His PFF grade in coverage in 2022 is a 56.5. You need to create a situation where he’s in space, flying to the ball, with a mission to disrupt, harass and hit.
There are plenty of players who excel in this role who are better comparisons for Anderson than the Bosa’s or Garrett. I think people are saying ‘Nick Bosa’ because he happens to be the best defender in the NFL this season and everyone wants that in Seattle. I don’t think people realise how difficult it is to find a player like that. It’s as rare as finding a franchise quarterback, perhaps even harder to find.
There are better comparisons out there that still shine a positive light on Anderson.
Khalil Mack has featured strongly in the 3-4 system as an outside rusher and is a much better ‘optimistic comparison’ than Bosa.
Mack, like Anderson, has a slightly unorthodox frame. He was 6-2 1/2 in height and 251lbs at the combine. He only has 33 1/4 inch arms. He’s stocky and lacks brilliant size and length — but he was so quick and powerful and played for attack-minded defensive coordinators like Vic Fangio.
Anderson might turn up at the combine, down a couple of jugs of water and weigh-in at a similar weight. He’s listed at 6-4 and it won’t be a surprise if he has similar arm length to Mack.
This to me feels like the best comp. Granted, Mack ran a blistering 1.53 10-yard split, jumped a 40-inch vertical and ran a 4.18 short shuttle. That will take some matching. However, if Anderson can prove he also has great burst, explosive traits and agility — there’s no reason to believe he can’t become similarly effective at the next level in the right scheme.
There’s no doubt in my mind though that Mack is the player fans should be hoping Anderson can become. Unless he can put on 25lbs of weight, not lose any speed or agility and learn a new role to become a more complete player — he’s never going to be a Bosa.
Some thoughts on the quarterback situation
After publishing an article last week pleading with Seahawks fans to remain open-minded about drafting a quarterback early, I was surprised to discover the extent to which people are already ruling out the idea completely.
On Twitter I received replies like:
— They can’t draft a quarterback early, look at the time they drafted Rick Mirer and Dan McGwire!
— Geno Smith isn’t the problem it’s the defense!
— They don’t need a quarterback! Geno Smith can be the quarterback for the next five years!
— This quarterback class sucks!
— Drafting a quarterback early is too risky! Go with the safe pick of a defensive lineman!
Today I wanted to write down some reasons why it’s wrong to write-off drafting a QB this early in the process, before the NFL regular season has even ended.
1. Geno Smith is a free agent in the off-season and might not return. I think he will be back but it’s not a foregone conclusion. If he signs somewhere else, quarterback suddenly becomes a critical need.
2. The cost to keep Geno Smith has to be considered. One of the benefits of the Russell Wilson trade was the financial saving. It’s been very enjoyable watching Smith perform above expectations on a $7m contract this season. If/when he’s being paid a similar contract to Wilson’s in Seattle in the $30-35m a year range — expectation changes and so can performance. You have to set a limit on how much you’re prepared to pay and that could create issues. Remember — Seattle only has $29.6m in effective cap space in 2023 and only 33 contracted players for next season currently.
3. Geno Smith is 33 in October. It’s not unrealistic that, physically, he will begin to regress as he approaches his mid-30’s. Very few players play deep into their 30’s and when the physical turn happens, it can be dramatic. Preparing for the long-term future is not a bad idea, while also retaining Smith to create a handover situation. The best example of this is the Kansas City Chiefs. They had Alex Smith and drafted Patrick Mahomes, who sat out his rookie season. The Chiefs then dealt Smith to Washington for Kendall Fuller and a third round pick. This could be an ideal situation — allowing Geno Smith to win games in the present, taking away the pressure for a rookie to start immediately and allowing for some proper development time for that player.
4. The Denver pick is a gift. Nobody expected it to be a top-five pick at the start of the season and it could still be as high as #2 overall depending on results next week. If we view this as a rare, unique opportunity — drafting a quarterback should be on the table for consideration. If the Seahawks see a QB they really like, this could set the franchise up for the next 10-15 years. Arguably, there’s no bigger priority in football. You don’t want to do what the 49ers did in 2017 — take Solomon Thomas at #3, not even consider drafting Patrick Mahomes and then live with regret for the rest of Mahomes’ career.
5. I have watched every game C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young have ever played. Before the 2022 draft, I made sure I’d watched every game played in 2020 and 2021 by Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis and Matt Corral. The upcoming 2023 quarterback class is a good class. It’s far better than last years crop. I didn’t give a single quarterback a grade beyond the third round a year ago and was validated in doing so. This year, I think we might see four quarterbacks go in the top-10. There is legit talent, potential and star quality within the quarterbacks who will go early in 2023. We shouldn’t dismiss this group.
6. Seattle has two first round picks, two second round picks and a third round pick. That’s ample stock to address the defense even if you take a quarterback with your first pick.
I’m not saying the Seahawks should definitely take a quarterback. I’m saying that QB or D-line makes sense and both should be considered.
Some quick thoughts on where the top quarterbacks will go
I still think there’s a distinct possibility Will Levis will be the first player drafted. A quick reminder — he didn’t benefit from a wide-open spread offense in college. He played in a pro-style offense, behind a horrendous offensive line — leading Kentucky in the loaded SEC (a thankless task).
Look at the sacks-per-game numbers for the top QB’s in college football in 2022:
Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)
Let’s just make this especially clear. Michael Penix Jr was sacked seven times. Will Levis was sacked 42 times.
If you insert C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Drake Maye or anyone else into that situation in Kentucky — they would struggle.
That’s not to entirely excuse the mistakes Levis made (which we’ve discussed at great length). There are technical issues with the way he leans back on certain throws and he loses accuracy. He had too many red-zone interceptions. There are areas to work on.
That said, he has literally everything the NFL teams are looking for in a quarterback. He has a great arm, superb athleticism, an ideal frame and leadership qualities. There’s a reason people like Jim Nagy are making comparisons to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert.
C.J. Stroud made his case to be the first quarterback drafted against Georgia’s brilliant defense with a sensational performance at the weekend. Stroud has always been a player capable of throwing with beautiful touch and accuracy to all areas of the field. He has great size and he’s a good athlete with exemplary character. The issue with Stroud has always been his apparent inability to play off script or outside of the constraints of the Ohio State offense — which holds your hand constantly and produces 5-star talents at receiver, running back and the offensive line.
Against Georgia, Stroud showed he can play off-script. He manipulated the pocket wonderfully to extend plays. On the move he escaped pressure, kept his eyes downfield and made things happen. He was creative yet in control and it complemented everything else he does well in terms of touch passing and accuracy.
Watching that performance makes you dream about what he can become with a bit of time and development. A year ago, teams were blown away by a throwing performance at the Ohio State pro-day. Don’t be surprised if he ends up being the #1 pick. He has a shot to be really good.
A couple of people suggested to me that his showing against Georgia was no different than Justin Fields excelling against Clemson in the playoffs a couple of years ago (a game that didn’t positively impact Fields’ stock). It’s worth noting that Fields’ issues were horrible technique and some attitude concerns. There are no such concerns with Stroud who might not be the same level of athlete as Fields but he’s a far more polished passer of a football.
Bryce Young is an excellent football player but a cautionary reminder that he is about 5-10 and 185-190lbs. Don’t be surprised if he lasts on the board longer than people are suggesting. Particularly in a year where the shorter quarterbacks (Tagovailoa, Wilson, Murray) have all had injury and performance issues. Young is naturally gifted and a great leader but there isn’t anyone in the sport at his position at his size.
Finally — watch Anthony Richardson’s stock rise as the process goes along. There aren’t many humans capable of doing what he can do. Yes he needs time and development but he also carries superstar potential and isn’t as ‘raw’ as some people are making out. There are plenty of plays on tape where he makes reads and adjustments, goes through his progressions and plays within structure. There are also plays where he makes magic happen as a runner or passer. Yes he has too many inaccurate throws (high or behind) but I think that will be solved with more playing time and experience.
It took Josh Allen two years to work things out and now he’s one of the best players in the NFL. Richardson might experience a similar period of development and then a similar rise.
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