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My first horizontal board for the 2023 draft

November 14, 2022 /

Here it is then — my first horizontal board for the 2023 draft.

I haven’t done one of these in November before. Typically I wait until after the combine. Testing and how players perform at the Senior Bowl will dramatically impact grades. There are plenty of players to be discovered at those two events — and there players I simply haven’t had a chance to watch yet. Remember, I do this as a hobby in my spare time. The amount of work that has gone into this initial board is frightening. I will get to other players in time — so keep that in mind.

I’m considering hosting a live stream Q&A discussing the board if there’s enough interest from the community. Let me know in the comments section if it’s something people would be interested in this week. It’ll only work if there are plenty of questions coming in through the live chat.

I’ve also posted a huge pile of notes below the board so check them out. Be warned, it’s 7000 words long…

Click the image to enlarge the horizontal board:

What is this draft class actually like?

It’s thin for round one. I have 10 players with ‘legit’ first round grades, including four quarterbacks. It’s light on what you might call obvious blue-chippers who would go in the top-10 any given year. You can make an argument that Jalen Carter, Will Anderson and Bijan Robinson fall into that category. As such, the top-10 might not provide great value (which is a similar situation to what we experienced in the 2022 draft — although there are early round quarterbacks in this class).

What I would say, though, is there are some appealing options on day two and an opportunity to improve your overall talent and depth. What the Seahawks do in the first round though, with two picks, will be a big debate for the next few months. I don’t think there’s an obvious clear plan of action.

At the moment they have the #7 pick and the #22 pick. It’s possible a good defensive player is available at #7. It’s also very possible that Carter and Anderson are both gone and the top player available in that area is a quarterback or the running back Robinson. You can make an argument for trading up and down but I also think this team would really benefit from another draft like their 2022 class where they stayed put and just added talent with sensible picks. The Seahawks need to get better in key positions but they also need to add quality and depth across the board.

Defensive players I really like

There are some appealing options and I wanted to get into that first, with a lot of fans hoping this will be a defensive-centric class.

There’s a bit of everything here. Elite athletes with untapped potential. Unorthodox body types with sensational production and/or testing profiles. You’ll need to work out how these players fit at the next level. Plus there are solid prospects who might not test that well but their college performances have caught the eye.

I’ve given Pittsburgh’s Calijah Kancey a fringe first round grade and I wanted to single him out first because he might be the most intriguing yet challenging player to assess in this class.

I haven’t seen a player with his first-step quickness, ability to pair his hands and feet together to beat blocks, explosive burst and disruptive quality since Aaron Donald. Now, that isn’t to say Kancey is Donald. Nobody is ever going to be Aaron Donald. He is a one-off. He is a unicorn. He’s a ripped, low body-fat, powerful machine filled with violence and speed — somehow combining the quicks of an elite edge rusher with a frame just big enough to handle every down duty inside.

It’s no slur on Kancey to say he doesn’t match that description. Yet their physical profiles are similar. Donald measured 6-0 3/4 and 285lbs at his combine. Kancey is listed at 6-0 and 280lbs. Donald ran a 4.68 forty and jumped a 32 inch vertical. Kancey has been timed running a 4.69 and has jumped a 31.5 inch vertical.

When you watch the tape, you feel like you’re watching Donald sometimes:

Now, it is worth noting that while Kancey has impressive production (34 TFL’s, 15.5 sacks for Pittsburgh) he’s still a long way behind Donald — perfectly illustrating that nobody will ever be Donald 2.0 (66 TFL’s for Pittsburgh and 29.5 sacks).

Yet the Seahawks do need to find a young, disruptive interior threat. They’ve needed it for years. Perhaps Kancey will be worth taking a chance on?

I’m not sure whether he will appeal strongly to Seattle though, or whether his production will translate. The Seahawks have typically sought long-armed defensive tackles — even among shorter, squatty linemen (see: Poona Ford). For all of Kancey’s brilliant athletic features it’s possible his lack of length will stymy his ability to keep his frame clean and he could be overwhelmed at the next level against better blockers.

It’s also hard to work out what his position is. You probably couldn’t play him on early downs at 280lbs because unless he is Donald 2.0 he’ll likely be smothered. Can you play him in a three man front? Possibly. Yet his best quality is attacking the interior to force pressure, not acting as a five-technique.

If he’s ultimately viewed as a specialist interior rusher who plays mostly passing downs — he could impact a lot of games but how early do you take a player who might not play a high percentage of snaps?

How he fits is a quandary teams will need to work out. Yet his tape, the consistency with which he wins, his testing profile and his ability to wreak havoc on the interior warrants celebrating and as such, I’m comfortable with a fringe first round grade in this initial attempt at a horizontal board. Provided he tests as well as expected — I wouldn’t have an issue with any team taking a shot on him in round one, even if it ultimately doesn’t work out. Can you really blame anyone for trying to find the next Aaron Donald?

It’s a similar story for Tyrus Wheat. He plays outside linebacker but has an unconventional frame for the position. He has a chunky build at 6-2 and 270lbs. He’s caught between an edge and a three-technique type and doesn’t really fit either ideally. He’s not typically a player the Seahawks have drafted. They tend to go after the praying-mantis style frame — long and lean. There are players in this class — Will McDonald, B.J. Ojulari — who fit that profile. There are also more conventional LEO/EDGE types such as K.J. Henry. All are extremely athletic and filled with potential and could offer value in the top-50.

Wheat has freakish athleticism though. Watch him dunk a basketball below. Yes, that’s him playing with Philadelphia Eagles’ receiver and former Heisman winner DeVonta Smith:

How do you grade a player like this? He’s so unconventional to look at, yet his testing profile is expected to be astonishing — and you can see that in the video above and with plays like this:

He can be powerful and dynamic off the edge but the incredible thing is how well he drops in coverage. He’s recorded an interception every year at Mississippi State — not usual for a defensive lineman/linebacker. He also has six career PBU’s.

Both Kancey and Wheat are intriguing, unusual players who will shine at the combine. I’m not sure either will end up in Seattle, due to the years of data we have on their ‘types’ — but I wanted to touch on them here to begin.

I think it’s a reasonable safety class and it’s why the Seahawks should seriously consider saving money on Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams, despite the hefty dead money hit, to go in a different direction.

A reminder — if you designate Diggs as a post-June 1st cut, which is what they did with Carlos Dunlap this year, you save $14m and can split the dead money between 2023 and 2024 ($4.1m each year). If you designate Adams as a post-June 1st cut you save $11m but would take on a $7.1m dead hit in 2023 and a whopping $14.2m dead hit in 2024.

You can designate two players per year as a post-June 1st cut, so this is possible. I don’t think the Seahawks will do it but the $25m saving might pay for Geno Smith’s next deal and would give you ample money to fill out your roster and retain/replace the likes of Poona Ford and Jason Myers.

Certainly it feels very difficult to justify a $36m outlay on Adams and Diggs next year when you only have around $32m in effective cap space for 2023, you only have 33 contracted players and currently have zero quarterbacks signed beyond this season.

If they do seek replacements in the draft, there are options.

Christopher Smith is a dynamic free safety who covers ground brilliantly. You can leave him deep to help support cornerbacks against the deep-ball. He can run up to the line and hit in the running game and short-passing game. He plays with intensity and quickness and is generally a very sure tackler:

I’m not convinced Smith will have a brilliant testing session at the combine and that could limit his stock. He’s not Earl Thomas. Yet if he runs a solid 4.4 or low 4.5 there’s no reason why he can’t be a second round option.

Ji’Ayir Brown is another player with a stocky, unconventional frame for his position but he’s an outstanding athlete who just makes plays. He has 9 interceptions over the last two seasons. He’s reportedly capable of a 3.99 short shuttle at 208lbs and is said to run in the 4.45 range. He’s well known as the voice of the Penn State locker room and he will also likely be a day two pick.

JL Skinner is a punishing, tone-setting hitter who will make opponents fear running any kind of crossing route. He can play up at the line and defend the run tremendously. He’s no slouch in coverage and he has a physical mentality that isn’t a million miles off Kam Chancellor:

Skinner looks like a day two pick with the potential to rise higher if he tests well. He has an impressive, focused mindset too which will appeal to teams. I’m a big fan of bringing him in to add some violence back to the secondary.

There’s also Brian Branch at Alabama. He’s another excellent athlete (reportedly he’s clocked 22.3mph on the GPS system) and a polished performer. There are two sides to his game. For the most part he’s a Rolls Royce in coverage and plays with a smooth quality, with sudden, gliding movements. Yet he can also hit like a hammer and has had some big tackles this season. He’s played in the slot and at safety and will likely be a first round pick even if I am personally grading him in the second round.

Later on — I’m intrigued to see how Wisconsin’s John Torchio tests because he’s an underrated player with speed, playmaking quality and some toughness. He was very impressive against Ohio State this year. TCU’s Abraham Camara has also been a bit of a gem at times this season. He can hit, he’s got a smooth back-pedal and can line up in a variety of spots. I’m not sure, however, that he’ll turn pro in 2023.

Back to the D-line and regulars will know I’ve been a big fan of Alabama’s Byron Young for some time. He impacts every game and doesn’t get anywhere near enough attention. People are acting like his performance on Saturday against Ole Miss was some kind of arrival. It wasn’t. He’s been making plays all season.

Young lives in the backfield — he is constantly winning 1v1 to either push his blocker back into the pocket or use his combination of power and quickness to shed and penetrate. He has a knack of knowing when to stay put, jump and get a paw in the air to deflect a pass. He’s extremely versatile and can play inside at defensive tackle or as a 3-4 DE.

How many 6-3, 295lbs defensive linemen do you see attack the edge like this?

Young is high-character and a passionate performer on the field, highly respected by team mates. It won’t surprise me if the Washington Commanders draft him in round two if they need to replace Da’Ron Payne. He’s not necessarily going to be an 8-10 sack dynamo at the next level but if you want someone who can play with discipline, deliver consistent results and can be both stout against the run but also provide surprising ability against the pass — Young is one to monitor. I think he’d be an excellent fit for Seattle’s modified scheme and I’m grading him in round two before any testing results are known.

It’s a thick looking defensive end class and there will options stretching deep into round two. This is a contrast to the depth at defensive tackle which is, once again, extremely thin. I would suggest that if you want to draft a defensive tackle you’ll need to do it early. Michigan’s Mazi Smith will be a combine star and should join Jalen Carter in the top-12 range. The positional value runs out very quickly, though.

If the Seahawks address their D-line in free agency, it’ll be indicative of the limited options in the rookie pool.

As noted earlier, the Seahawks have tended to go for lean length in their edge rushers and LEO types. The most obvious players who fit the bill in this class are Tyree Wilson (he will be a high first rounder), K.J. Henry (for me, a top-45 type), B.J. Ojulari (also top-45) and Will McDonald (could easily end up in round one despite an underwhelming 2022 season). Washington’s Bralen Trice, if he declares, is a very intriguing player and TCU’s Dylan Horton — despite some hit-and-miss tape — is expected to test well.

Keep an eye on Michigan’s Mike Morris too. He has amazing size and agility, plus the ability to embarrass blockers by using speed-to-power. I don’t think he’s played with enough urgency this year, apart from the rivarly/revenge game against Michigan State where he played like his pants were on fire. Nevertheless, there’s a lot of potential here and he has the size to play five-technique or power-end.

Oregon defensive back Trikweze Bridges screams Seahawks. He has an incredible lean frame, enormous long arms and he appears tailor made to be drafted and developed by this team. His tackling and coverage has improved this season, he’s developed into more of a playmaker (three interceptions this season) and even if he doesn’t go in round two, I think that’s a solid mark for what he is and is indicative of his immense potential.

The talk about Georgia linebacker Nolan Smith being a possible top-10 pick was always a bit much for me. It was a similar story with Nakobe Dean a year ago. Smith’s performances are decent but he’s asked to rush the passer off the edge and it isn’t his best role. Every time I’ve watched him I’ve always been left wanting more. He should be developed as a more orthodox linebacker because he has an unbelievable testing profile — but he isn’t an EDGE. Georgia used him as an EDGE too often.

Even NFL.com, in reporting his season-ending injury a couple of weeks ago, referred to Smith as a ‘top edge rush prospect’. That isn’t him. He needs to be a more conventional linebacker.

At SPARQ he ran a 4.15 short shuttle at 235lbs, jumped a 40 inch vertical and delivered a world class overall score of 141.18. In terms of pure potential and athletic freakishness — as a day two pick he would be a brilliant project to try and turn into something special in his more natural position. Teams will love his character and personality. He has a ‘you’d be happy for your daughter to marry this guy’ vibe and he’ll get top marks during interviews.

Put him in space, let him roam the field and fly to the ball-carrier. Use him occasionally as a pass rusher. He averaged three sacks a season at Georgia and five TFL’s. There’s a player here but he’s not a top-15 EDGE like many are saying. Thus, he likely lasts a bit longer than people are suggesting but the sky’s the limit for him due to his physical profile.

On a similar note, Owen Pappoe at Auburn has had a fairly horrible season. That is, until the Head Coach was fired recently and he suddenly looked a lot better against Texas A&M at the weekend. As with Smith, he has an unbelievable testing profile. He ran a 4.00 short shuttle at SPARQ, jumped a 40 inch vertical and had another world class overall score of 147.12.

The Seahawks have often sought big-time athletes at linebacker. Pappoe’s unspectacular play in college likely puts him the third round range. As a project, he’d be a good option.

Another linebacker, Ventrell Miller, is a different story. He isn’t likely to have the brilliant combine that Smith and Pappoe are capable of. However, he’s played his arse off all season for Florida. He’s played through injury. He flies to the football, sniffs out anything to the sideline and he’s the emotional leader of the Gators defense. I don’t know whether his profile will fit Seattle’s athletic preferences but he’s been really fun to watch all season and it’s easy to imagine him providing a steadying presence at the next level too.

Buyer beware on big name defenders

There are players in this class who are being consistently touted as high picks. They probably will be too due to their testing profile and potential.

There are some things to note, however, that aren’t being discussed enough in the broader media.

For example — Myles Murphy plays like a pussycat. His size and pass-rushing qualities are appealing. There’s no dog in him though. He’s been a liability against the run this year and he didn’t even start Clemson’s recent game against Louisville. I get a lot of ‘decent not great’ vibes from Murphy — a bit like another former Clemson rusher, Shaq Lawson. There’s also not a lot of muscle definition on Murphy’s frame. It kind of makes you wonder whether he’s been able to get by as a great, natural athlete where everything has just been fairly easy for him so far. Then at the next level, against other great athletes, is he going to be able to find that edge to be a difference maker? Or will he play within himself?

Clemson team mate Bryan Bresee has been through a lot over the last 14 months. He had an ACL injury a year ago and his younger sister sadly passed away recently due to cancer. There are justifiable reasons why he hasn’t found his best form in 2022.

That said, we have to evaluate what he’s put on tape and he tends to play in only flashes. He had a great sack early in the Louisville game at the weekend, for example, then disappeared.

There are plenty of reps this year where he’s controlled by a middling interior blocker 1v1. Is he a better athlete than football player at this point?

At the same time, you watch his High School tape and it’s reminiscent of Jadeveon Clowney before he went to South Carolina:

Bresee, as with Clowney, looks like an adult that has been allowed to play against children. That’s the type of freakish physical specimen he is. If you draft him early, you could end up with a special talent. Yet his talent needs to be harnessed properly. He needs to learn to make the most of his physical tools and get off blocks. He needs to be more disruptive, forceful and consistent.

For example — Bresee’s PFF grade this year is a 67.3. Jalen Carter’s is a 91.5. In three years at Clemson, Bresee’s grade has never topped 70.

He’s expected to run in the 4.7’s at 310lbs and if that happens, all bets are off. Yet it shouldn’t be assumed teams will view him as a sure-fire top-12 pick based on the tape that’s available.

Tyree Wilson’s tape at Texas Tech is quite a thing too. His performance against NC State was exceptional. He’s 275lbs, has +35 inch arms and his combination of speed and power is rare. When he turns it on, he can be unstoppable in college. He can rush the edge, he can dip inside, he can bull-rush as well as he can win with quickness. He has everything.

Yet there are plenty of games where you’re just left wanting more. I think he’s a lock to go in the top-15 and he could be a serious option for Seattle as a versatile piece who can disrupt as an EDGE or a five-technique. Again though, you want to see more consistency in his performance. Like Bresee, the idea is sometimes better than the reality. But at least Wilson has shown evidence of brilliance. It would also be quite the thing if Seattle used Denver’s first round pick on a player called ‘Wilson’.

Discussing the quarterbacks

Why have I got Will Levis as the top quarterback and Anthony Richardson #2?

The process of judging quarterbacks goes way beyond stats and results. You are making a projection based on transferable skills. You also need to consider situation, scheme, traits, accuracy. It’s a nuanced process.

Trying to find a franchise quarterback is incredibly difficult and no way of doing things is fool proof. I will explain my thoughts and hope we can avoid ‘Levis/Richardson suck’ replies because frankly they’re a waste of time. Also, I have no horse in this race. I don’t have personal biases (why would I?). Other players I’ve liked previously have been dropped while others I’ve been sceptical about have risen over the last few weeks of tape study.

I’ve also watched every game most of the quarterbacks have played this year, at great cost to my social life, so if nothing else I’m speaking from a position of intense research.

It’s very easy to watch Kentucky or Florida at various times this year and think the team and thus the quarterback stinks. There are a few things to consider though.

Firstly, Levis and Richardson are the only two quarterbacks within the top group functioning within a system even remotely close to ‘pro-style’. Both players are making checks at the line, they are adjusting, they are responsible for protection shifts and they orchestrate the offense. Both have handled these duties well for the most part. They will enter the league with a degree of expertise that the other quarterbacks will need to learn.

Of course, that alone isn’t enough to justify a higher grade. Levis and Richardson also have exceptional traits and upside. They are big, strong, athletic players. They are both capable of throwing off-platform and off-balance with power and accuracy. They have been able to make the improbable happen:

They can both improvise, create and they can drive the ball downfield. They have made big plays with their legs either to avoid pressure or break off big runs.

There are also issues they need to rectify. Levis’ footwork is inconsistent and has led to some sloppy turnovers at Kentucky. Of course his high number of interceptions will always be highlighted. Let’s also acknowledge that his latest, against Vanderbilt, was a last play heave on fourth and forever with seconds to go. He had one against Florida that was really a sack/fumble. Not all interceptions are the same and while Levis is certainly responsible for some — I would argue that his are mostly less egregious than some of the other players in this class (more on that in a moment).

Levis has also had to deal with a nightmarish situation in Kentucky. It’s interesting that during the Washington vs Oregon game on Saturday, Bo Nix was sacked and the commentator noted it was only the second time all season he’d been sacked.

Kentucky’s horrible O-line has given up 39 sacks this season — the fourth most in college football. Only Akron, Colorado State and Tulsa have conceded more.

By the way, they play Georgia on Saturday. Good luck, Will.

Here are some comparisons:

Oregon — 2 sacks
Ohio State — 7 sacks
Washington — 7 sacks
Florida — 12 sacks
Alabama — 17 sacks
Tennessee — 22 sacks (six vs Georgia)
Kentucky — 39 sacks

On top of that, Kentucky possesses a bits-and-pieces crew of receivers and tight ends, plus a porous defense.

Levis has been hammered, battered and bruised all season — with almost no support and at times, no chance. Without him, I’m not sure how many wins they would’ve had. Possibly as few as one or two courtesy of their non-conference schedule.

These are things you have to consider when judging players. Environments are different. He isn’t playing in a wide-open, one-read, half-field system throwing to first round picks and tearing up opponents for a power-house team. He has been a piñata in Kentucky.

Again, that’s not to totally excuse the errors this year. It is something to consider though. So many of the big name QB’s are not having to endure what he is. Levis has outstanding physical tools, a huge arm and he can do everything NFL teams want their quarterbacks to do in 2022. There’s a reason respected evaluators like Jim Nagy are comparing him to Josh Allen and Justin Herbert. He has faced adversity and produced Kentucky’s best period of winning football in years. He has excellent character.

Levis is an easy projection due to his transferable skills. It doesn’t mean he will succeed in the NFL. Far from it. But when you’re a GM making a decision with a high first round pick — and your job depends on getting this right — it’s easy to square the circle in your mind about Levis’ pro potential.

As for Richardson — he has been unfairly judged this season. After a sluggish start (understandable given this is his first full year as a starter) — he has really improved. He hasn’t had a turnover in four games. He now has a total touchdown tally of 20 with only 7 interceptions.

We are talking about a player who could become another Josh Allen. Like Allen, it might take some time to settle into life in the NFL but when he gets there — watch out. This is a player capable of throwing a 60-yard bomb and running for a 75-yard touchdown in the same game. He is mentally processing at a level most quarterbacks are not, despite all the talk of being ‘raw’.

There aren’t many more exciting players than Richardson to emerge in the last few years. And yes — he does have to improve in certain areas. He has too many throws that are a little behind the intended target or just miss the mark. He needs to work out how to make the most of his physical tools as a runner and he needs to throw with a bit more variety when it comes to touch.

Yet the sky is the limit for Richardson. He could go first overall. Believe it. Teams want to take a chance on ‘special’ and that’s what he is. Don’t be surprised if, as the process goes along, Richardson emerges as the player to have. He has MVP physical potential.

Quickly on to other players. I am a huge fan, like everyone else, of Bryce Young. I really admire the way he plays. He’s accurate, he’s extremely creative and his personality and attitude are likeable. There are times this year where he’s dragged a surprisingly sluggish Alabama kicking and screaming into contests.

I do think, however, it’s not wrong to question whether a 5-10, 185lbs quarterback translates to the next level. Can he succeed at the same rate, when he isn’t playing for Alabama and he’s facing a lot more adversity? He’s already had one shoulder injury this year and it has impacted his throwing power and accuracy in recent weeks. He has been a bit more streaky. It’s not wrong to show some concern about how he’ll stand up to the upcoming battering that’s heading his way.

Quarterback debates become so tribal online and people are already going to war over this group. I would say — there’s nothing wrong with believing that Young should be the #1 pick. It’s a valid argument. If others question how a player like this will translate to the NFL — that should be fine too. It is also a valid argument.

Young will be a first round pick. Possibly a very early first round pick. I’m suspicious that teams will view him the same way the media does. We’ll find out soon enough. I just don’t think there’s a right or wrong opinion here. Young will be a very interesting case-study and how he performs will influence future decision making because there’s never really been anyone like him before. I wouldn’t be surprised if he landed anywhere from #1 overall to #20.

I think C.J. Stroud might suffer too. He has an elite supporting cast and like Hendon Hooker, Mike Penix Jr and others — he plays in a hand-holding, uber-spread system that makes his life easy. He has had some questionable throws and off-games, mixed in with some of the prettiest passes you’ll ever see. His intermediate accuracy suffers at times but he’s also throwing outstanding touch passes deep downfield with perfect placement and velocity. He has brilliant arm talent yet he’s largely untested in terms of dealing with pressure, going through progressions and managing an offense.

All three of the players I’ve just mentioned (Stroud, Hooker, Penix Jr) are in the same environment. Watch the games. You see them stare down a safety or linebacker to freeze them in position. The aim is to create a window so they can throw to the intended target as their only real read. When it works, it’s great. I’ve never seen a QB throw to wide open players at the rate Hooker has this year. I think I could’ve thrown some of his touchdown passes. When you get players to bite and someone like Jalin Hyatt is able to accelerate against single coverage, it’s no contest. That to me isn’t particularly impressive and needs to be acknowledged when you’re watching these wide open schemes.

Stroud and Penix, similarly, get a lot of favourable opportunities.

Those two in particular will win a lot of admirers. They both have outstanding arm talent. Thus, when the scheme works as intended, they look amazing. They hold the safety, their intended target gets open. They don’t have to think or read. They just deliver.

Yet the problem is none of these players are actually processing at the line. They look to the sideline, get told what to do and they do it. It’s why we’ve seen all three, amazingly, throw the same interception this year. You could take a screen grab of the intended receiver each time and the only difference is the jersey colours. When the defense doesn’t bite on the look-off — and they still return to their intended target and throw blind, expecting it to work — they throw into triple coverage. There has literally been a triangle of defenders surrounding the one player the offense tells them to go to on picks all three have thrown this year.

It would be staggering for a NFL quarterback to throw into that coverage. He would be expected to process what the defense is giving him, not throw to what the cardboard cut-out says on the sideline — with the coaches making the decision for him.

At the next level you need to be able to go through reads and make those decisions yourself. Your offensive coordinator or Head Coach isn’t going to tell you what to do and then hope it clicks into place. You need to read a defense, make adjustments, then go through two or three progressions. These guys don’t.

As such, these players are harder to project because you don’t know how they’ll handle a pro-offense. Who knows if they’ll be able to process, make good decisions and throw in a completely different environment than the one they experienced in college?

I would be happy to take a chance on Stroud early because he has all of the tools to be great. But he needs time to learn how to be a NFL quarterback. I genuinely fear for him if he’s thrown in at the deep end as a rookie. Give him a year playing behind a good, veteran quarterback. Look how Patrick Mahomes benefitted playing behind Alex Smith for a year.

Penix Jr will need the same. When he has had to think on his feet and make decisions — at times we’ve seen moments like the ugly pick against Oregon. When he isn’t protected by the scheme, can he use his head to get his clearly impressive arm to make the right throws? That is a big question mark and I’m not convinced, based on what I’ve seen this year, that he’ll thrive when he is required to take on a lot more responsibility. Plus, he has a significant injury history and when he’s come up against other quarterbacks like Dorian Thompson-Robinson at UCLA, he’s been second best. Yet the arm talent is special.

People will ask why I now have Penix Jr graded in round three. His arm is so impressive it warrants that kind of a grade. He has won me over to an extent simply because of the arm. I still wouldn’t necessarily vouch for him becoming a NFL starter and I’m not sure I’d want to take him in round three given some of the other players who might be available in that range. That said, there aren’t many players with an arm like his. Someone will give him a chance to eventually compete for a job.

On Hooker — he’s clearly had a terrific season and helped elevate Tennessee to a new level. That said — he’ll be a 25-year-old rookie. He’s been a lot less accurate than people realise this year. As noted earlier, I’ve not seen a player have so many wide open throws in a single season. There have been some oddly inaccurate throws covered up by the insane production delivered by the admittedly brilliant Josh Heupel scheme. Hooker is also throwing to two potential top-45 picks with one of the very best offensive tackles in college football, Darnell Wright, protecting him.

Elsewhere, I’m a big admirer of UCLA’s Thompson-Robinson. He’s taken a huge leap forward this year and is a fantastic playmaker, an accurate passer, a dynamic athlete and for me his floor will be a Tyrod Taylor style backup — with the potential to claim a starting job in the right environment.

Stanford’s Tanner McKee has little hope of succeeding in Stanford’s putrid setup. Look at these numbers courtesy of PFF’s Mike Renner…

Percentage of throws 10+ yards downfield that are charted as tight windows:

McKee — 52.7%
Levis — 39.3%
Richardson — 34.5%
Hooker — 24.8%
Young — 24.1%
Stroud — 23.3%

It’s another reason why we need to consider situation vs production/stats/aesthetics.

I do get a bit of a Mike Glennon vibe with McKee. Someone will give him a chance, as they did with Glennon (multiple teams, actually, when it came to Glennon).

Overall I think this is a good quarterback class with early round options and some depth. However, I do wonder if teams will view players like Jalen Carter and Will Anderson as ‘better bets’ at the top of round one — especially if they can either hold off on the quarterback position or if they have two early picks (eg the Houston Texans) meaning they might be able to go Carter/Anderson first — then take a quarterback with their second pick (or trade up).

For the Seahawks, despite everything this year, I don’t think they should look a gift-horse in the mouth if a player like Anthony Richardson is available to draft, stash and develop. That should remain a consideration.

Let’s also not rule out the possibility that Geno Smith will be too expensive to retain for a team not flush with cap space in 2023. I asked Pete Carroll yesterday about the possibility of contract talks before the end of the season and he seemed to suggest that was unlikely:

This is the right approach, of course, because I think you need the league to help establish Smith’s market. Currently, you’re only bidding against yourself. I don’t think another team is going to blow Smith (who turns 33 next year) away with a contract offer and would imagine him staying in Seattle is a formality. If it did happen, though, the prospect of a rookie quarterback becomes much more likely. And I do think the Seahawks spent accordingly this year expecting that they’d go quarterback early in 2023. Having only $33m in effective cap space makes a lot more sense if you’re paying your quarterback $6m in 2023 rather than $20-30m.

Final notes

There are some attractive running backs if the Seahawks opt to move on from Rashaad Penny. Georgia’s Kenny McIntosh would be a fantastic third round option. He’s not only a terrific pass-catcher out of the backfield (a nice third down back) but he’s also a vicious runner who packs a punch with good size. I’ll keep trotting out this quote from Georgia coach Kirby Smith, speaking about McIntosh: “I told him he’s a bad MF-er. He’s tough. He’s physical.”

UCLA’s Zach Charbonnet is a tremendous player who deserves a second round grade and Kentucky’s Chris Rodriguez is a yards-after-contact beast.

At the top of the running back class is obviously Texas’ Bijan Robinson — a player likely to garner a top-three grade on most boards.

At tight end — Michael Mayer is a tremendous player and possibly the best catcher of a football away from his body I’ve ever seen. His straight-line speed is a small concern but his short-area quickness, agility and ability to gain subtle separation makes up for it. He operates mostly out of the slot but he’s a good in-line blocker too.

Watch out for Oregon State’s Luke Musgrave. He will dominate the combine and should generate second round buzz. Georgia’s Darnell Washington is built like a tank and is basically a sixth offensive lineman who can run a few routes. Dalton Kincaid at Utah is a prolific pass-catcher and has a transferable skill-set for the modern NFL.

I don’t think the Seahawks will spend big on the interior O-line moving forward, at least if they’re all-in on the LA Rams’ blocking scheme. That said, I’m a huge fan of Kansas State guard Cooper Beebe who I have marked for round two. He’s physical, dominant and he moves well for his size. He can be a brilliant puller from the guard spot. He can also bury defenders:

I also really like TCU’s Steve Avila — he has great mobility for his size, he’s incredibly competitive and strong at the POA. He’s played guard, center and tackle for TCU. He’s incredibly athletic for a 340lbs linemen. I have Avila in round three.

I think two of the highly touted tackle prospects — Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski and Georgia’s Broderick Jones — are better suited to left guard. I wouldn’t advocate necessarily taking either with a high pick (I have them both graded for round two). I think Damien Lewis is worth persevering with and his PFF grade is a team-high (for the O-line) 71.6.

I also really like the center class. Minnesota’s John Michael Schmitz is big, bad and physical. Joe Tippman and Ricky Stromberg are both tremendous athletes for their size and should test very well. Michigan’s Olusegun Oluwatimi is Mr. Dependable and Sedrick Van Pran has a nice combo of sound technique and plus athleticism. There’s some depth at the position with Oregon’s Alex Forsyth just providing a sturdy ‘gets the job done’ approach. I’m not sure Seattle will draft a center early given they seem to be very much in the Rams’ mindset of going with a smaller, wrestling-style brawler. None of the centers I’ve watched so far fit that description.

I do hope the Seahawks stick to trenches though. They had so much success doing that with the 2022 class and as we saw in Germany, there’s still work to be done on both lines. Keep building up front.

Finally, it’s another loaded receiver class. I really like the idea of drafting a big, athletic WR3. TCU’s Quentin Johnston has a remarkable frame and testing profile and could be an option early in round one. I’m a big fan of the Tennessee duo of Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman.

Ole Miss’ Jonathan Mingo is massively underrated by the media and might be my preferred option in round two. He’s a real mismatch when he lines up as a big slot, he has soft hands and he’s just a pain in the arse to cover:

You’ve also got West Virginia’s Bryce Ford-Wheaton if he declares — another very intriguing big, athletic receiver who is reportedly capable of a 40 inch vertical, a 10-8 broad and a 4.02 short shuttle at 6-4 and 225lbs.

The class is also made up of dynamic smaller receivers. Boston College’s Zay Flowers and North Carolina’s Josh Downs in particular stand out. Flowers has the best stop-start and change of direction ability I’ve ever seen in a receiver and Downs is a lot like a Tyler Lockett/Golden Tate hybrid.

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Instant reaction: Seahawks well beaten in Munich

November 13, 2022 /

Every week feels like a gauge on what the Seahawks really are and yet, ten weeks in, I’m not sure we still have any idea.

Clearly it’s been a season of defied expectations. Yet this game had a bit of everything. The extreme good and bad.

A defense incapable of stopping anything in the first half — but finding turnovers in the second to make a game of it. Yet when they needed one more stop to give the offense a chance, they couldn’t find it. They didn’t really come close.

Offensively it was a similar story. Awful in the first half. Geno Smith was flustered and his body language was poor in the first half. Just as he threatened to drive Seattle back into the game in the third quarter, he had a horrible fumble on a poorly timed QB-keeper.

Yet he ended strongly and with a couple of impressive scoring drives, suddenly found himself a defensive stop away from having a potential game-winning moment that sadly wasn’t to be.

Such was the one-sided nature until the end — by the time the third quarter ended with a long, punishing run by Rachaad White (dumping Quandre Diggs on his backside in the process) — it was almost a surprise to look up at the scoreboard and see it was only 14-3 to Tampa Bay. This felt like a blowout. A hammering. It was in every sense, apart from the scoreboard.

The Buccs ran at will — their offensive line actively shouting at the sideline to ‘let them eat’ they were dominating so much. That opened up the passing game and Tom Brady needed little invitation to dissect Seattle’s young secondary.

It feels when Seattle’s front can’t be disruptive everything else becomes completely exposed.

On offense this is the second week in a row where the offensive play-calling has started conservatively and produced pedestrian results. It didn’t cost them in Arizona because things opened up late in the game. Here, it took until half-time to get things going when they were already 14-0 down. By the time they’d got into a rhythm — unlike last week, they’d run out of time.

It did kind of leave you wondering what could’ve been.

The Seahawks are now 6-4 and facing the prospect of losing their NFC West lead during the bye (San Francisco will claim first place with wins against the Chargers and Cardinals). That record, to be fair, is still way beyond what anyone expected after ten weeks.

How they rebound from this in a fortnight will be telling. The next couple of games — against the Raiders (H) and Rams (A) — will reveal quite a lot.

Now — it could just be one of the days. The Seahawks have arguably earned the benefit of the doubt. They looked jaded and sloppy early in this game but they aren’t the first team who’ve suffered on one of these trips. There have been plenty of blowouts in London over the years and this is an even longer trip.

Either way, it was a long way to come to watch a mostly disappointing performance.

The instant reaction live stream will be a little less instant this week. I’m not sure what time I’ll be back at the hotel but stay tuned because we are doing a stream.

Curtis Allen’s week ten watchpoints (vs Buccaneers)

November 13, 2022 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. Later today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel at a slighter later time due to the fact I am attending the game. The best way to know when we’re going live is to subscribe to my channel and select the ‘notification’ button. 

The Seahawks captured the NFL’s attention in Week One with a hugely satisfying win over Russell Wilson and the Broncos and they have done so again with an impressive four game winning streak. They are playing as well as any team in the NFL right now.

Tampa Bay is not. At 4-5 they sit atop maybe the NFL’s worst division and are not playing particularly well. They did snap a three-game losing streak with a gutty drive to beat the Rams last week.

And yet we all know that Tom Brady can deliver when he steps onto a big stage.

Pete Carroll’s teams are no slouches in that area either. They came to London in 2018 and dominated the Raiders. Since that game, however, they have an uncharacteristic 11-8 record in prime-time games including a horrid 0-5 last year.

Everything about this season feels different though. The infectious energy that led them to take on the NFL’s greatest challenges and win in years past has returned to the team this year. Belief is more than just a buzzword spray painted on a locker room wall.

Led by a young influx of great rookie talent, a quarterback staging a late-career renaissance and some excellent additions that are fitting right in, this team is going to be a tough out on Sunday for Tampa Bay.

How can they beat the Buccs and go into their bye week a sparkling 7-3? They will need to combine disciplined play mixed with a heavy dose of patience.

Defend Tom Brady

Tom Brady is the Buccaneers offense. Their total rushing attempts are near the bottom of the NFL and Brady is on track to shatter the all-time records for both pass attempts and completions in a season.

Given how vital he is to the offense and that the Bucs have a banged up offensive line, how in the world are they managing to keep Brady upright and so clean? He is only being pressured on a league-low 13.3% of passes and is in the bottom quarter of the league in times sacked with fourteen.

It is definitely not due to his scrambling ability. He only has two recorded scrambles this year.

Tampa has employed the strategy that has become increasingly popular around the NFL — get the ball out of the quarterback’s hands as quickly as possible and let your receivers make plays. Brady is averaging an extremely slim 2.1 seconds in the pocket to get the ball out, the quickest number in the NFL. It solves many things — it keeps Brady from getting hit or injured, which let’s be honest, at his age is a bigger factor than other quarterbacks. It also keeps the pass rush from teeing off on him, considering they are one of the most lopsided pass/run teams in the league.

What is the tradeoff of this strategy? They are more predictably horizontal than vertical. Brady is averaging career-lows in average depth of target (6.8 yards) and completed air yards per attempt (3.4). In effect, they are substituting screens and other dump offs for a running game and relying on slants and short back shoulder throws to make their offense go while mixing in the occasional throw past the sticks.

Here is the good news. The Seahawks match up very well with this style of play. They have faced several teams so far this year who employ this quick-passing horizontal style. Among them — Arizona (twice), the Giants, the Chargers and the Niners.

Overall, how has the defense fared defending this style of passing? Remarkably well. All of those teams have had dreadful days passing the ball against this defense. They all experienced either season-lows or near their season low in passing yards against this defense. Only San Francisco was able to rely on their running game to pick up the slack.

The Seahawks know how to defend this style. They have patient defenders who can make tackles when needed and keep the game in front of them.

I say that with full knowledge that the Seahawks had a troubling game last week with tackling against the Cardinals. Yet this team overall has done much better than in previous seasons. It is also noteworthy that the offense is supporting them as well or better than they have been, which makes it easier to work around the occasional mistake.

So, this will require a team effort to be good at tackling. Tampa has many weapons to defend and Brady excels at finding matchups that he likes and exploiting them.

For instance, Josh Jones is currently one of the worst tacklers in the NFL in his limited time on the field, missing 22% of tackles. He will have to be better, as the Seahawks seem to have found a player in Ryan Neal and want to keep a lesser player (Cody Barton) off the field, particularly this week given the Bucs throw so much.

With a game plan so terribly focused on quickness, the key will be taking away Brady’s first read. If defenders can jam, reroute or simply stick to their men and present Brady a murky picture, their chances of having a successful down go up exponentially.

The Bucs sputtered badly against the Rams last week whenever Brady had to go to a second read as the pressure started to accumulate around him.

Everything about it was bad — Brady’s form, his decisions on where to go (frequently short of the sticks on a critical down), his throws did not lead the receivers as much as they should and his receivers did not help him out (Tampa leads the NFL in dropped passes this year with 23).

On the other hand, whenever the Ram defenders played 5-6 yards off the receivers (which they especially did on the final game winning drive), Brady is happy to throw simple routes and take the free 5-7 yards, thank you very much.

So how can the defense force Brady into these types of decisions? Stopping him in the early downs is key. Forcing the offense into a third and five or more will do wonders in keeping this offense in check.

One area that seems very intriguing for the Seahawks to keep an eye on is their running game in the early downs. Tampa runs on first down 40% of the time but it is almost out of obligation, trying to keep up some semblance of offensive balance to keep the defense guessing.

When they run on first down and they gain less than five yards, that sets up the defense to have a good second and third down.

That is true when you are playing against any team. So why is that any more important on Sunday? Answer: You give yourself a little more field to work with and defend against a conversion. On a third and six, if Brady completes a dump off, you have three yards or so to get that defender to the ground instead of maybe just one yard or a half yard.

And if you can get that ‘take away his first read and bring the pass rush’ combo, you can force Brady to just throw the ball away. He might be the most patient quarterback in the NFL. He does not fret over having to punt. However, the tradeoff is he has got to make the plays late in the game when he needs to. This season, it is not happening as much as it typically has. If the defense can force a few of these wasted series early and the offense can build up a head of steam, it will be too late to mount an effective comeback.

In large measure, that approach is working. Brady is only throwing for a 57.7% completion rate on third downs and the running game is not helping very much, therefore the offense is not nearly as effective as we have come to expect from a Tom Brady team.

Stay Balanced and Patient on Offense

Tampa Bay’s scoring defense is currently fifth in the NFL, allowing only 18.3 points per game. That is commendable, but also needs some context.

Four of their games have come against bottom-10 scoring offenses. They have also played well against division opponents with decent offenses but when faced with a really good offense, they have struggled.

They have had two games against top-five scoring offenses. The Chiefs hung 41 points on them and the Ravens two weeks ago put 27 on them. In both games, the Tampa defense could not stop them from moving the ball and the offense could not score enough to hang with them and they ended up losing those contests.

I am not saying the Tampa defense is not good – they have a lot of things to respect – but the Seahawks currently have the #4 scoring offense in the NFL and high-functioning offenses have done very well against this defense in 2022.

Teams that provide a real challenge to Tampa are playing incredibly balanced football:

— Kansas City only got 228 yards passing, but ran for 189 yards.

— Baltimore had an almost identical setup, with 222 yards passing and 231 yads rushing.

— Carolina smoked them 21-3 on the strength of 170 yards passing and 173 rushing.

KC and Baltimore owned the time of possession category in their games against Tampa, winning by nearly 17 minutes. Kansas City did such a great job forcing the Bucs to be one-dimensional, Tampa came away from that game with only three yards rushing. Three!

The punchline being, it is easy to look at excellent Tampa defenders like Vita Vea, Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David and Antoine Winfield Jr and their team scoring numbers and think that this is a serious defense for the Seahawks to contend with.

The truth is, if Shane Waldron and Geno Smith can keep up with the kind of performance they have shown us so far, they should be able to play the game they want to play. They will just need to stay patient and know their shots will come.

Some keys…

Tampa Bay is one of the five worst NFL defenses against tight ends. The Seahawks have been attacking teams and making them cover at least two tight ends and sometimes three on every play. Geno Smith has been able to find options frequently. And not just moving the chains type options but big strike plays like we saw Noah Fant make last week against Arizona. The mixing of plays and using the field from sideline to sideline will greatly help them in attacking this defense.

What about in the run game? Tampa is conceding an average of 122 yards a game in their losses. You can run on them. Baltimore had four different players have explosive runs. Even for a good running team like the Ravens, that is impressive. The Panthers also had four explosives.

Opportunities will be there for the Seahawks to move the ball on the ground.

One caveat: Tampa Bay leads the NFL in tackles for loss. They get about 5-7 per game. If the offense can accept that this will occasionally happen and stay patient, they will have chances for some big gains, especially on the ground.

Where should the Seahawks send their runners? I’ll answer that by showing you the run charts for the Carolina’s D’Onta Foreman and Baltimore’s Gus Evans for their games against Tampa:

Look at all those green lines running to the right side against the Bucs defense. Abe Lucas might have a really big day in the run game.

There will be multiple opportunities and ways for this offense to move the ball in this game. They have ascended from being a younger team with a questionable quarterbacking situation to a fully functioning offense with a near-complete arsenal of weapons.

Time to show it to the world.

Curtis Allen’s second quarter report card

November 9, 2022 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Record: 4-0

Thoughts

What an exhilarating quarter.  Sweeping the entire quarter is a huge accomplishment, particularly when you consider they had two division games and two other opponents they do not often play — with contrasting styles of offense and defense.

This team is currently playing at a near peak-level of Pete Carroll’s original vision with an offense that uses all phases of the game (and the field), a defense that can get after the passer with only the front four and generate turnovers and a special teams unit that blends seamlessly with the other two phases to complete the circle.

Evidence — the Seahawks had the NFL’s best point differential in these four weeks, scoring 48 more points than their opponents.

The closest way this team is like the early Pete Carroll legendary teams?  They are winning games while simultaneously developing young talent.  Once that talent gets a feel for the nuance of the game, watch out.

If the Seahawks end up making noise in the NFC, this quarter is the one you will be able to point to as where it really got started.

MVP

1.Geno Smith

The numbers continue to defy belief.  In four games he has six touchdowns vs two interceptions, a 70.63% completion percentage, a 99.8 QB rating and six rushing first downs.

At the pseudo-halfway mark of the season, he is on track to throw for 28 touchdowns with only 8 interceptions, a QB rating of 107 and over 4100 yards passing.

Those are only the top sheet statistics though.  What makes his performance so remarkable is the source of those numbers.  The calm in the face of pressure (this quarter he faced blitzes about 40% more than he did in the first quarter), the command of the offense (watching him get the offense to the line with 15 seconds to spare and orchestrate things is near poetry) and his cool in the face of adversity (overcoming a pick-six with seven straight third down conversions in Week Nine).

And he is doing it all for a $3.5 million cap hit plus incentives, call it $7 million.  The Seahawks have $33.5 million invested in the quarterback position this year when you figure in Russell Wilson’s $26 million dead cap.  Even if you do not factor in the picks and players they received in trade and just look at the cost and benefit at the position, the Seahawks are netting a nice profit.  Incredible.

The biggest takeaway from this quarter may be this — teams now have tape on Geno in this offense and have yet to be able to devise a consistent way to slow him down or effectively counter what the Seahawks are doing.

This quarter, he graduated from a surprising curiosity to a bona fide top NFL quarterback and has made the Seahawks relevant again.  

2.Uchenna Nwosu

In the four games this quarter he recorded five sacks, six tackles for loss, eight quarterback hits and a forced fumble.

He played 79% of the snaps in those four games and he has not worn out.  The Seahawks have been thin at the position with Darrell Taylor, Alton Robinson and Tyreke Smith all missing time.

Nwosu is playing more than he ever has and is providing career-best numbers.  This has allowed the Seahawks to ease in Bruce Irvin and not overwhelm rookie Boye Mafe without missing any productivity.  That is fantastic value and will pay dividends later in the season.

He is doing all this on a 2-year $19m contract.  His cap number this season is $6.3 million.  He has already earned his salary this year.  Everything else is pure profit.

Perhaps most importantly, the Seahawks are no longer needing to blitz at crazy levels to get pressure on the passer — so the young backfield is not overburdened.  Nwosu has been a key piece of that transformation.

3.Ken Walker

With Rashaad Penny getting injured in Week Four, the rookie has been pushed into the spotlight.  Result?  The running game with Walker has not missed a beat.

There are several things that make a running back valuable, from keeping the offense balanced and on schedule to relieving some pressure on the quarterback.  However, a lot of the pure stats can be padded or need real context to grasp their true value.

So, how can we cut through the minutiae and see what made Walker such a valuable player this quarter?

How about his fourth quarter stats as the team went 4-0:

*189 yards rushing

*4 First Downs

*4 Touchdowns

*Zero Fumbles

Walker is the living embodiment of the dream scheme for most NFL teams and fans — mix the run and pass to get a lead, let your defense chase their quarterback around a bit and protect that lead and then slam the door on them late with a running game they cannot stop.

A player like Walker is tying the offense and defense together and making the formula one that is hard to beat.

Rookie of the Quarter

1.Ken Walker

This quarter:

424 yards.  23 first downs.  13 explosive runs.  6 touchdowns.  

We have talked a lot about how Jonathan Taylor is the one that got away in 2020.  His rookie year he ran for 1169 yards, 69 first downs and 11 touchdowns.

If Walker keeps this pace up, he will steamroll Taylor’s numbers — accumulating 1418 yards, 71 first downs and 19 touchdowns.  That is even accounting for him missing the first game and being lightly used in the next four.

And yet, you can see there is more to come with experience.  He also has potential in the passing game that is so far untapped.

The Seahawks have got a good one here.

2.Tariq Woolen

The flashy stats of the first quarter are not there but make no mistake, his star is continuing to ascend.  He had four passes defensed and one interception this quarter.

His year-to-date PFF grade is 72.9.  Have a look at his four game grades this quarter – 83.6, 63, 65.6, 69.3.  That is consistently good play.  It looks even better when you consider some of the names he lined up against:  Hollywood Brown, Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Darius Slayton and DeAndre Hopkins.  None of those guys had games to write home about playing against the Seahawks.

Kyler Murray had targeted Hopkins 27 times in the previous two games.  He only managed to target Hopkins five times in Week Nine.

Woolen has not earned the ‘shutdown corner’ label just yet.  But whatever phrase you prefer that is just one notch below that, that is where he is.

Again, this is a fifth-round rookie who is earning $788k on the cap this year.  Ridiculous.

3a and 3b.Charles Cross and Abe Lucas

These two have continued to put in 60-ish grade PFF performances on a regular basis.  This quarter, they reduced their penalties.  Each had one false start and Cross had a holding penalty that hindered a drive but the defense had his back and gave the ball back to the offense.

They also showed us something further — development.  They both had a shaky game (by their standards, anyway) Week Six against the Cardinals, as Geno Smith was sacked five times.  How would they handle the rematch in Week Nine?  Smith was only sacked twice.  Once was on a blitz by Isaiah Simmons that Will Dissly could not handle (nothing to do with the tackles).  The other – both Cross and Lucas got pushed by their rusher but the interior line also made sure Geno could not escape.

Also notable was Cross’ performance against Khalil Mack in Week Seven.  Mack did not get a sack and only recorded one pressure, going head-to-head with Cross most snaps.  Considering the year that Mack was having, that is impressive and shows growth.

What is great about these two is they are taking their lumps and learning on the job, while the Seahawks are winning games.  They are solid to the point where fans are already just assuming that the opposition pass rush will not be a huge problem for them and they will be able to run the ball as they need to.

Just wait until these two get some more reps under their belt.  Lucas in particular will be tossing bodies regularly on highlight reels.

Honorable Mentions-Coby Bryant and Boye Mafe

Both players are progressing.  Both have a way to go.  You can see them in coverage at times, trying to think their way through things instead of acting on instinct.  Open-field tackling can be problematic.  Mafe is adjusting to what the scheme requires of him in coverage, and Bryant is getting used to not having a sideline ally to work with as a nickel.  It is just not quite there for them currently.

And yet, like the two tackles, they are learning on the job while the Seahawks are winning games.

With Mafe, it is just a matter of time before he becomes a regular contributor.  He is too strong and too skilled to not keep progressing.  It feels like a breakthrough is coming.

Bryant is more than compensating for his steep learning curve at the nickel spot by displaying a penchant for forcing fumbles.  We have even seen a couple Bryant-generated turnovers get wiped off the record books with penalties and judgement calls by the officials.

In training camp, I witnessed Bryant step onto the practice field on the very first day and scrimmage well at left outside corner.  I styled him the “rookie star of the day” amongst all the rookie talent the Hawks brought in and praised his performance.  

Later in camp I saw that the Seahawks were giving him time at the nickel spot and questioned the position change, pointing at players like Damien Lewis as proof the Hawks could be messing with a good thing.

At this point, I am reconsidering that viewpoint.  Bryant’s ability to generate turnovers demanded he get on the field as soon as possible and with Woolen locking the right side job down and the left side a crowded field of capable corners (at this moment Michael Jackson and hopefully soon Tre Brown) the move to nickel appears to be a positive one.  

Bryant has the skills and the desire to embrace the challenge of change and he had college experience but no NFL experience as an outside cornerback.  He had a training camp and preseason to get ready.  And with the NFL becoming more and more of a three wide receiver league, the nickel spot is becoming critical.  Why not develop a talent like Bryant and lock that position in for the foreseeable future rather than bringing in a veteran off the scrap heap every season and play the hit and miss game at an important spot?

Successes

1.Defense:  The Adjustment

After five games of disastrous results, Pete Carroll and the staff made an adjustment that is paying off extremely well.

The biggest change is up front with the linemen.  In short, they want them to attack instead of reacting.

Originally, they instructed their base three defensive lineman to control the gaps and read what the offense was doing.  Now, they have changed their assignments to have them attack the gaps and create both run and pass pressure.  This allows them to use their skillsets to their maximum ability.

Players like Poona Ford, Shelby Harris and Quentin Jefferson have come alive with the change.

The other big adjustment has been behind the line.  The Seahawks had been using Cody Barton (PFF 52.6) on nearly every defensive snap.  This quarter, they scaled back his snaps to as little as 30-40% and brought a three-safety look onto the field, with Ryan Neal taking on a larger role.

Neal (PFF 78.5) has exploded this quarter.  In four games, he has 5 passes defensed, an interception, a quarterback hit, a sack, three tackles for loss and several impressive tackles in the run game.

The whole adjustment stems from a pretty simple principle:  Understanding what your roster does best and putting them in the most advantageous position to do that.

Last quarter, I put the defense on notice in my report card.  They have risen to the challenge and more than met their expectations for a passable NFL defense.

Let’s not embrace that they were so late to the party and rather rejoice that they showed up at all and are making a huge difference now.

What have been the results of these adjustments from a statistical viewpoint?  Read on…

2.Defense:  Scoring

The first quarter, this defense allowed 30.8 points per game, good for #31 in the NFL.  They were absolutely dreadful.  

This quarter?  They dropped that to 12.75 points per game (51 total points over four games.  I refuse to ding the defense for the 15 points the offense and special teams conceded this quarter).

Just for comparison, the legendary Seahawks defenses of the 2013-2015 era (sacrilege alert) gave up 14-15 points per game over the course of their seasons.  Yes, this year’s model is only a four-game stretch and their horrid first quarter assures their year-end numbers will not be great. Yet for this quarter, this Seahawks defense was in rare air.

Perhaps it had something to do with their pass rush…

3.Defense:  Sacks

At the end of the first quarter, the Seahawks were in the dregs of the NFL in team sacks with eight putting them firmly within the worst defenses at 29th overall.

This quarter?  They had 19 sacks to catapult them to 4th overall in the entire league with 27.  I repeat:  the Seahawks defense went from 29th to 4th in sacks in only four games.  

Eleven different players have sacks.

The 3-4 alignment allows them a more natural posture for the edge players to rush the passer.  So really, the only blitzers they have are defensive backs and off-ball linebackers like Cody Barton and Jordyn Brooks.  So, the rush is more organic, and those safeties can man their regular responsibilities more readily, and let the pressure come from players that know they are going to rush the passer.

I think we all can agree that it is working.

Honorable Mention:  Sweeping Arizona

Any time you sweep a division opponent it is sweet.  How much more so to start and end the quarter with a win.  Beating the same team twice in four weeks is a real accomplishment.

The fact that the Cardinals are struggling and are now pretty much out of the division race and primed to play spoiler for LA and the Niners makes it even sweeter.

Struggles

Honestly, were there any real struggles of serious consequence this quarter?

Quandre Diggs still not living up to his $13 million a year contract?  (He has a 62 PFF grade so he is not awful)

The blocked punt in the end zone that resulted in a touchdown in Week Six?  (The Seahawks had counter-balanced that by having two punt fumbles forced and recovered to ease the team to a win against the Giants)

Dee Eskridge needing to show up in games?  (Marquise Goodwin’s day against the Chargers sure eased that difficulty)

The punt return weirdness?  (Frustrating but not game changing)

Kyler Murray running for 160 yards?  (ditto – frustrating but not game changing)

Pete Carroll’s continued odd use of timeouts?  (some things will never change)

I don’t know.

When the Seahawks log four straight wins and win by an average of 12 points per game, particularly in the way they are winning, trying to find real discernible struggles for this four-game stretch feels like nitpicking and strains credibility.

Next Quarter Games

@Tampa Bay in Munich

Bye

Las Vegas

@ LA Rams

Panthers

What a strange quarter this will be, particularly in comparison to what we thought it would be when the schedule first came out.

All four teams are wounded animals of sorts.  

The Buccs just came off a three-game losing streak, the Raiders are a talented disaster, the Rams’ offensive line is a mess and they could not make any of their patented ‘screw the salary cap, screw the draft picks’ trades this time and the Panthers have enjoyed a post-coach-firing dead cat bounce.

Every game is winnable in its own way and a dangerous trap in its own way.

Goals

1.Beat the Rams

The Seahawks have a healthy lead in the division but let’s be right.  They need to beat LA.  The Rams have been their nemesis for years.

The Seahawks finally beat the Rams in 2020 to win the division.  It was a short-lived victory as the Rams came to Seattle and bounced them out of the playoffs two weeks later and then swept the Hawks last year.

A page is turning in the division back to Seattle.  The Rams announced their intention to take the division over in 2017 with a 42-7 blowout, probably the worst loss of Pete Carroll’s Seahawks career.

Will the Seahawks be able to make a similar announcement this year?

I am not saying the Seahawks need to blow them out like that.  That would be nice though.

Beating the Rams would also be a major accomplishment for Pete Carroll.  In his Seahawks tenure, Carroll has never had a losing season vs the NFC West.  They stand at 2-1 currently, and a win would keep that streak alive.  It might be a very meaningful stat in a season of shattered expectations.

2.Set up the Fourth Quarter

The last four games of the season look scintillating.  The Seahawks host the Niners for a revenge game, go to Kansas City for a Saturday game that looks far more interesting than it should, host the upstart Jets and finish by hosting the hated Rams.

Going at least 2-2 this quarter helps set them up entering the fourth quarter at 8-5.  A 3-1 run has them at 9-4 and looks so, so much better with four very tough-looking games to play.

More than just simply putting wins in the column, if we want to keep comparing this team to the legendary run Carroll had in 2012-2014, the team will need to add one of that team’s trademarks —  absolutely rolling through opponents in November and December.

Those teams built momentum over the year.  The young talent matured right in front of our eyes and was battle-tested come the cold and rainy season, when playoff hopes are defined and character is demonstrated.

3.Tap the reservoir of talent

As good as the team has been and as good as the young talent has been, there is still more depth for this team to plumb.

Tre Brown is nearly ready to come back.  Can he get in the game and show some of the speed and feisty play he demonstrated last year before his injury?

Penny Hart is a heart-and-soul glue guy for this team.  He can contribute on special teams, throw his relatively small body at tacklers in the run game and surprise cornerbacks with a key catch or two.  Can he find a way to contribute this quarter?

Pete Carroll has been very quiet about Alton Robinson’s injury status.  Bruce Irvin’s arrival cools the need for him to get back on the field.  Yet a third or fourth quarter shot in the arm with a fresh pass rusher from the edge would be fantastic.  Robinson has demonstrated a trait not unlike Coby Bryant — he has not recorded a lot of sacks but every time he got one, they were incredibly well timed and impactful.  That would be a cherry on top of this burgeoning pass rush if he can get back in the fold.

Dee Eskridge.  He had a prime opportunity to contribute in Week Nine with Marquise Goodwin out and could not capitalize.  It appears at this point that Pete Carroll does not even trust him to return punts.  The coaches need to reach him.  That incredible potential we all saw pre-draft needs to be tapped.  As good as the top two wide receivers and the three tight ends are, having a real third wide receiver option that takes the top off the defense would be the ingredient that takes this offense from very good to absolute juggernaut.  He has got to find the fairway.

Reviewing where the Seahawks stand relating to the 2023 draft

November 8, 2022 /

I touched on this yesterday but wanted to flesh it out a bit more today. If the Seahawks end up with the #11 pick (currently their highest pick, courtesy of Denver) what could they realistically do with it?

It’s not going to be high enough to get a top young quarterback to develop behind Geno Smith or one of the very best defensive linemen.

For the here and now, nothing would be more impactful for this team than a truly dynamic interior rusher who can wreck games. It would knit everything together on defense. Longer term, I don’t think the success of Geno Smith should dissuade the Seahawks from considering investing in someone to develop as a potential successor. Especially if that player has incredible upside potential to be a top-level starter. Let’s call it ‘the reverse Indianapolis Colts’ — investing properly in the most important position in the sport for the present and future.

The second tier needs are arguably a dynamic third receiver, safety (given they have a decision to make on Quandre Diggs’ $18m salary in 2023, plus potentially Jamal Adams’ $18m too), linebacker (although I think the Seahawks view LB2 as a position of lesser importance in this scheme) and it’s never bad thing to keep adding talent to your offensive line.

So what are the options with the top pick as things stand today?

My personal opinion on the top five picks right now is that it will include:

Will Levis (QB)
C.J. Stroud (QB)
Will Anderson (DE)
Jalen Carter (DT)
Anthony Richardson (QB)

After that I think you can make a strong case that the best remaining players are:

Bijan Robinson (RB)
Michael Mayer (TE)
Bryce Young (QB)
Mazi Smith (DT)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB)
Quentin Johnston (WR)

I don’t necessarily think this group will make up the top-11. Two running backs taken in that range would be unusual, for example. I don’t think it’ll be a surprise, though, if both Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs receive high grades. Robinson in particular will be a top-three player on most (if not all) boards.

I would suggest a player from ‘Group A’ is unlikely to last to #11. A player from ‘Group B’ lasting is very plausible.

The problem is ‘Group B’ includes positions like running back and tight end. Neither are big needs nor do they present great value with a high first round pick.

Elsewhere, Bryce Young’s size will be a big question mark for a lot of teams and despite the media narrative — I don’t think he is anything close to a lock to go as high as many mock drafts are projecting. Mazi Smith is a very disruptive, talented player who will blow up the combine. Yet his lack of arm length will be a turn-off for some teams (and Seattle has been quite strict with arm length at his position). Quentin Johnston has outstanding size and an amazing physical profile. He’s a potential X-factor player but he can be inconsistent with his hands and he has disappeared in some games despite playing for a high-octane offense.

There are other players the media are touting to go in the top-15 and in some cases, certain prospects are being declared as ‘locks’ to go very early.

One of those players is Texas Tech pass rusher Tyree Wilson. When I watched him I came away wanting more. There are flashes but I didn’t see a hair-on-fire pass rusher every week. Yet I can also see why the league likes him. According to reports quoting league sources, he’s a shoe-in to be a high pick.

According to Jim Nagy, Wilson has nearly 36 inch arms. He’s also listed at 6-6 and 275lbs. I suspect he’s closer to 6-5 and 265lbs but even so — he has great size and length and those measurables are projectable for the next level. Wilson is also productive with 14 TFL’s and seven sacks in nine games this season and 27.5 TFL’s and 14 sacks since the start of last season.

When you pair measurables with production — he’s basically strong testing away from being a player with everything the league looks for at his position. I find it hard to bang the table for Wilson but I also understand why he will appeal to NFL decision makers in round one.

Then there are the Clemson pair of Bryan Bresee and Myles Murphy. Bresee’s SPARQ testing was incredible — running a 4.21 short shuttle at 290lbs. His overall score was a positional best 106.83. Murphy is big and athletic. Both are regularly mocked in the early first round.

However, Bresee had a bad ACL injury a year ago and just isn’t making an impact this season. He did suffer some incredibly sad news recently, following the death of his sister. That could be playing a justifiable part in his average play. Yet it’s hard to watch him on tape — despite the athletic profile — and feel like you’d be drafting an impact defensive lineman.

As for Murphy — I’ve talked about him a lot recently. He looks like a great athlete for his size but his frame lacks muscle definition and his run defending is shocking for a player at his size. He feels to me like someone who gets by in college because of his athletic qualities. In the NFL he won’t be able to lean on that. He’ll have to do more and play better. Shaq Lawson is my go-to comparison.

I love the idea of drafting an impact defensive lineman early in round one a year after rebuilding the tackle position. That’s the kind of focus on the trenches this team has needed for some time. Yet I also think forcing positional preferences is how you end up with L.J. Collier and Germain Ifedi (admittedly players I didn’t dislike pre-draft).

As such, this is how I feel today (and this is subject to change)…

— I maintain that I think Anthony Richardson has remarkable potential and the ability to become one of the best players in the NFL if he’s given time to learn and develop. If he’s available for the Seahawks I hope they seriously consider drafting him and stashing him. I think he will be long gone though. His play is constantly improving, he is showing NFL teams he can function in a pro-style offense and make adjustments at the LOS. He has as much physical upside coming into the league as anyone not named Josh Allen.

— Assuming Will Anderson and Jalen Carter are unavailable — I am sceptical that D-line will be the best choice. It’s possible they truly believe in one of Murphy, Bresee, Wilson or Smith to be a cornerstone player. I am not sold on that quartet providing great value in the top-12. I like Smith best of the four.

— I think adding more talent to a group that is blossoming and competing before our eyes would be a good idea — regardless of position. Add quality and depth.

The problem is I completely understand concerns with that final point.

If you draft Bijan Robinson, you might get the best player in the draft. Yet every time Robinson’s on the field Ken Walker isn’t. And vice versa. That isn’t a great use of resources even if that talent level would be through the roof. Yes it’d be solid insurance but you could arguably gain the same benefit from selecting Zach Charbonnet or Kenny McIntosh later on. Or re-signing Rashaad Penny (who might be cheap due to his latest injury).

If you draft Michael Mayer you could end up with a Travis Kelce-level tight end. Now, he’s a very different physical athlete to Kelce. That’s not why I’m making the comparison. I doubt Mayer will match Kelce’s 4.61 forty.

However, the one thing they both share is an ability to get open and understand how to exploit coverage. Kelce’s made a living of settling into the right areas to provide an outlet for Patrick Mahomes. He’s also a highly explosive playmaker of course — but it’s those key conversions he produces where Mahomes needs an open man that are so back-breaking. You can feed him production due to his reliability. Mayer has provided a similar outlet for Notre Dame.

The other thing Kelce does that you see in Mayer is that short-area quickness and agility. Kelce ran a 4.42 short shuttle and a 7.09 three-cone. As we’ve been discussing for years on the blog, these times are vital for the position. On tape you see Mayer separate in coverage superbly against much quicker, smaller defensive backs. It’s a thing of beauty to see him shake off a cornerback at 265lbs. Like Kelce he has a natural ability to get open and win 1v1. He can also stretch the field and deliver those big, explosive plays.

This all sounds great but the Seahawks are loaded at the position. Will Dissly, Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are contracted until the end of 2023 at the latest. All three could be extended. All three, currently, are producing at a high level. It’s also worth noting that Dissly and Parkinson are fourth rounders and Fant was part of the Russell Wilson trade. They’re getting good value without needing to spend big.

This has also been a very difficult position to project over the years.

Kyle Pitts — an athletic freak who looked like a sure thing — has not been able to dominate to the extent many expected. T.J. Hockenson had everything coming into the NFL — physicality, blocking skills, ideal agility testing and explosive traits. He’s just been dealt by Detroit and has shone in flashes without becoming consistently dominant.

Meanwhile the top tight ends over recent years have been taken in round three (Kelce, Mark Andrews), round five (George Kittle) and round six (Darren Waller).

As such, you can look at it two ways. Now that the Seahawks are utilising tight ends more than before — you can somewhat justify trying to add a great one. I do think Mayer has the potential to become a player who can impact games like Kelce. As well as Seattle’s tight ends are playing — could you imagine a Kelce-level player acting essentially as your ‘WR3’ working alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett?

Mayer has lined up in the slot 131 times this year, compared to his 102 snaps as an in-line tight end. Last year he had 227 snaps in the slot versus 172 in-line. He produces 12 yards per reception in college and has 14 touchdowns in 21 games despite not playing in a super-productive passing offense. He has a 90.6 PFF grade overall and on 316 run-blocking snaps — he’s grading at a 77.2. Not bad for such a dynamic pass-catching weapon.

On the other hand — history is not on the side of drafting a tight end early. You can invariably find good ones later on, as Seattle has done. They are currently well stocked at the position. Presumably you’d spend a high first round pick on a tight end to be the focal point — not mix in and out with two or three other TE’s?

Mayer might be the most talented player available when Seattle picks but whether you can justify it is clearly debatable.

Then you have Quentin Johnston. Physically he looks a bit like Richard Sherman mixed with a 10lbs lighter version of Larry Fitzgerald. That sounds odd but he’s long and lean in the arms/legs like Sherman but with fantastic muscle definition.

Reportedly he can jump a 42-inch vertical and an 11-foot broad, plus run a 4.4 forty. He’s 6-4 and 215lbs. At his best, he is highly explosive and quick. When he runs with the ball in his hands he looks like the T1000 charging towards John Connor.

I buy into the theory that in the modern NFL you’re only as good as your third receiver. The stress it puts on a defense to cover so many weapons is almost as back-breaking as having a superb collection of pass rushers on the other side of the ball. Both Super Bowl teams last season had an assortment of dynamic weapons.

That said, how you acquire that receiver — and who the player is — again presents a challenge. For example, should the Seahawks set out to find a solid, dependable veteran WR3 rather than throw resource at young and unproven? Or should a third weapon at the position be more of a day two option rather than a top-15 pick? Especially with the great depth of talent entering the league annually?

Can you wait until day two for a Jonathan Mingo, Cedric Tillman, Zay Flowers or Jaxon Smith-Njigba? I could list a whole bunch of other names too.

And while the Dee Eskridge pick so far hasn’t worked out — Seattle’s top-tier receivers are former second (Metcalf) and third (Lockett) round picks.

Johnston has outstanding physical upside but he’s had six games with four or fewer catches despite playing in a pass-friendly offense. He has had three sub-30 yard games. His 2022 numbers are a weird mix of underwhelming and dominant (14 catches, 206 yards vs Kansas and eight catches for 180 yards vs Oklahoma State).

It’s still early and the Senior Bowl and combine will provide greater clarity. Yet it feels like unless the Seahawks do end up with a top-five pick (I think there’s almost no chance and Denver, while not being very good, will not be terrible enough to be quite that bad) they’ll end up compromising in some way. Either by taking a bit of a risk to fill a positional need or adding a very talented player at a position (eg tight end or running back) that isn’t much of a need at all.

Like I said — right now I’m leaning towards just adding talent. I think that top pick should be an opportunity to do just that — add someone really good. It is, to an extent, a luxury for Seattle to be as good as they’ve shown so far this season and still pick early in round one (thanks to Denver). They have enough stock to address more pressing areas later on. There are good defensive linemen, safeties, receivers and offensive linemen who will be available in the late first round and during day two.

In the 2022 draft, the value matched positional needs. The 2023 class might be slightly different.

People will react poorly to this suggestion but I don’t think it’d be the worst thing in the world — and might actually build off what was achieved this year — to go for something like:

Take Bijan Robinson (RB), Michael Mayer (TE) or Quentin Johnston with your first pick based purely on talent. Then consider, with your next three picks, the likes of:

DT — Zacch Pickens, Keanu Benton, Calijah Kancey, Tyler Davis
C — John Michael Schmitz, Joe Tippman, Ricky Stromberg, Olusegun Oluwatimi, Sedrick Van Pran
DE — Byron Young, Mike Morris
EDGE — K.J. Henry, B.J. Ojulari, Tyrus Wheat, Will McDonald
Safety — Christopher Smith, Ji’Ayir Brown, JL Skinner, Brian Branch
WR — Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman, Zay Flowers, Jonathan Mingo, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
TE — Luke Musgrave, Darnell Washington, Dalton Kincaid
RB — Zach Charbonnet, Kenny McIntosh
OT > G — Peter Skoronski, Jaelyn Duncan, Jordan McFadden, Jordan Morgan, Broderick Jones

Talent acquisition is the order of the day, after all, to land another A+ draft in 2023. Not ticking off positions for the sake of it.

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Scouting notes from week ten of college football

November 7, 2022 /

This was a fascinating weekend of college football so be sure to check out the draft notes below on a majorly impactful weekend in terms of the 2023 NFL draft.

Firstly though I want to reflect briefly on the Seahawks and where I think they stand regarding the draft now that they’re 6-3.

I continue to believe, even after trading Bradley Chubb, that the best Denver will offer Seattle is a pick in the range they’re currently in (#8-12). I do think the Broncos defense, potentially combined with eventual better play from the offense, will allow Denver to at least win some games and avoid being a true bottom-feeder in the NFL.

As such, I think this will take the Seahawks out of contention for the top quarterbacks and top defensive players in the draft. They could trade up but I think it’s attractive to add multiple players to the framework they already have. Plus, with limited available cap space (almost none if they re-sign Geno Smith), they will need those picks with only 33 players currently contracted for 2023.

My opinion might change on this but if the Seahawks end up with first round picks in the range they’re picking now (#11 & #24) I think the best thing to do is simply go BPA, add the best possible talent and just improve the roster. I appreciate that’s a fairly unspectacular take. Yet I think it served Seattle well this year and they’ve sometimes got into trouble focusing on positional needs early in the draft.

This year the value matched positional needs. If it doesn’t work quite that well in 2023, I still think BPA would be best.

I’d prefer a focus on the trenches if they’re going to be out of range to draft a top young quarterback to sit behind Geno Smith. Yet increasingly I think the best players available at #11, for example, might be a tight end (Michael Mayer), a receiver (Quentin Johnston) or a running back (Bijan Robinson). That’s not ideal — but I’d rather add a possible blue-chip player than take a lesser talent at a bigger need.

The good news is I think there are very attractive options at defensive tackle, center, pass rusher and safety in the day two range (or even #24). Yet as Seahawks fans inevitably begin talk about landing a top defensive player with the Denver pick — I think it’s important to discuss what is actually likely to be available in that range.

Tennessee vs Georgia

For the first time in his Georgia career I thought defensive tackle Jalen Carter looked like a top-five pick in this game. He produced several huge splash plays that will have NFL teams salivating about his potential.

With 3:54 left in the first quarter he beasted the right guard, putting him on skates right off the snap. He then threw him off with ease and shoved over Hendon Hooker in the end zone for a sack fumble (should’ve been a safety, wasn’t due to the refs). This was a fantastic example of power and quickness combining to blow up the interior and make a game-wrecking play.

With 11:20 left in the same quarter he swam by the right guard and came up against two running backs left in the backfield as personal protectors for Hooker. Carter barged the first one out of the way then shoved the other right out of the pocket before hitting the quarterback. It was an outstanding play where he just looked like the best player on the field.

He forced a crucial fumble late in the third quarter — again abusing the right guard and then hitting the running back to dislodge the ball. Carter also garnered a lot of double teams, creating opportunities for team-mates in a game Georgia dominated.

I’m going to touch on this in a moment but Tennessee lives and dies by its offensive scheme and its ability to function. At no point in this game did they get into an offensive rhythm. Carter, as much as anyone, was a direct reason for that.

That said — it wasn’t a flawless game and some of the inconsistency in his play showed up too. I saw him pancaked once (maybe twice, I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt on the second). He had a few iffy reps where he doesn’t seem to bother using his hands properly and as a consequence, he loses the leverage battle immediately. There are free-wheeling snaps on tape every game he plays.

To realise his potential at the next level he won’t be able to just rely on his talent to outclass overmatched offensive linemen, have his splash plays and nobody care about the bad stuff. He can be a complete defensive tackle if he puts it all together. I hope he can manage that and become a major pass-rushing force. I do wonder, however, if like many good DT’s he will need time to figure that out at the next level before maxing out his talent.

Even so — I saw plenty here to improve his grade on my horizontal board.

Regulars will know I haven’t been buying into the Hendon Hooker hype. The Vols offense is the MVP and the half-field scheme they use, where Hooker takes his reads from the sideline, doesn’t translate. As such, it’s hard to project his true NFL potential. So many of his throws are one-read or a simple head-fake then come back to the original target. He has a cluster of wide open throws every game and his accuracy has been spotty when things don’t come easily.

In this game he looked limited. He overthrew Jalin Hyatt on a downfield shot. He got the matchup he wanted vs the safety Christopher Smith. Hyatt gained easy separation due to his likely 4.3 speed and Hooker just whiffed. It was a big miss. He had a similar miss to Bru McCoy later in the game.

Other teams haven’t been able to turn Tennessee’s production tap off. In this game, Georgia kept winning with the same blitz. Nobody on the Vols sideline had an answer to it and Hooker doesn’t have the power and ability to make adjustments. He isn’t reading the field at the line — he gets instructions pre-snap from the coaches. Hooker took six nearly identical sacks in the game. As a consequence he was hesitant all day.

He will go as far as the Tennessee scheme goes. He won’t get a scheme in the NFL that holds his hand in the same way. I have reservations about the upside potential of a 25-year-old rookie who has the table set for him in the way he’s had this year.

I’m a big fan of Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh. He would be a terrific receiving alternative to Ken Walker. McIntosh still runs with fantastic violence and finishing ability. Kirby Smith called him, and I quote, “a bad MF-er” this week. He’s very much a name to keep an eye on.

Cedric Tillman vs Kelee Ringo was a fun contest and both players had wins. Initially Ringo struggled. On one play Tillman shook him off in coverage then after the catch, made him miss in the open-field with greater agility and quickness. Ringo looked a bit stiff. Then Tillman beat him again on another route and in recovery, Ringo missed the tackle.

Yet with 4:52 left in the first half, Ringo had perfect coverage and position 1v1 on a shot to Tillman in the end zone. He ran the route for the receiver and claimed an impressive interception. It was a tremendous play.

I still think Ringo gets beat too easily and is rough around the edges and that tempers his stock for me. The upside is high but I think he might be a bit boom-or-bust. I think a range of 20-40 is more realistic for the draft than the top-12 placing some are projecting. Tillman deserves attention in round two. He and Jalin Hyatt should go early.

Georgia guard Sedric Van Pran was superb. He created numerous openings in the running game and combined well with his guards. He’s adept at letting rushers run themselves beyond the quarterback and then he has the athleticism to drop and step to create that personal protector. He’s tough and physical and very capable when reaching to the second level. He’s an excellent player with a lot of potential. We’ll see if he’ll declare.

Left tackle Broderick Jones will be a better guard than tackle for me. I think he looks better than he plays. His physical frame is extremely impressive. Yet I don’t see a comfortable, mobile, top-level left tackle. People are projecting him in round one but I don’t see it. I think he’s a worthy day two pick if you kick him inside.

Clemson vs Notre Dame

This was an absolute hammering. One of the biggest beat-downs I can recall, where one team just flat-out physically dominated the other. Clemson’s much vaunted D-line was taught a lesson by the Note Dame O-line. They ran for 263 yards and threw for only 85. That sums the game up.

I’ve talked up the talent on that D-line as much as anyone but it’s time people were honest and realistic about what’s happening. I keep reading and hearing that Myles Murphy is a top-10 pick. Yet he can’t defend the run. He’s 275lbs and can’t set an edge to save his life.

There was one play on 3rd and 10 where his initial positioning is great. All he needs to do is hold his edge here (he’s on the left side of the line):

Instead he goes wandering inside trying to peek at the running back to make a play and totally gives up the outside contain. It’s a massive gain for a first down:

This isn’t good enough gap-control. Yet it goes beyond bad instincts. He shows no power at the point of attack. Would it kill him to put an arm out, just control the blocker and keep his frame clean so he can keep his eyes in the backfield? Again, he’s 275lbs. If he can’t do this then what are you drafting him for? To be a 275lbs pass rush specialist on third downs? Come on.

He was credited with a sack in the game but it’s really K.J. Henry’s play. Henry drives the right tackle into the quarterback forcing him off his spot and he ran into the arms of Murphy. This was an unimpressive performance from a player I still think warrants only a fringe first round grade. Play with more fire and physicality. It worries me because his frame is a little bit sloppy (no muscle definition in arms, has moobs). He’s clearly very athletic but does he have that fire to be great? Is he one of those players who’s always been bigger and more athletic than everyone else and thus — when that alone isn’t enough — will he actually be pretty average?

Tyler Davis was the best of the bunch on the D-line. He was active — getting his hands up to tip a pass and stunting to create pressure. He has a prototype NFL body and skill set at defensive tackle and it feels like he will become a very solid starter as a round three type.

It’s not good news for Bryan Bresee though. He was totally anonymous and ineffective. I’m not sure if it’s a challenging last few weeks or the ACL from a year ago but he’s just not impacting games. Linebacker Trenton Simpson also continues to be a ghost. He doesn’t seem to do anything but mop-up tackles this year.

Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer is such a fantastic, consistent player. Every single week he brings it as a blocker and pass catcher. He runs great routes, he’s a very reliable target. He has enough short-area quickness and agility to create separation against smaller, quicker defensive backs. Mayer’s testing will determine how high he goes but there’s so much to like about his game. You can tell he loves football too — every snap is played with 100% intensity. He’s a dynamic pass-catching weapon. I don’t think it’s out of the question he becomes a passing-game focal point. It’s just whether the physical upside matches the great tape to determine how high he goes.

Alabama vs LSU

I’ve been talking up Alabama defensive lineman Byron Young for a few weeks now and I thought he was very impressive again against LSU.

He lined up at defensive tackle early, drawing a holding call after a pressure. He shared a sack with Will Anderson with 10:28 left in the second quarter. Young did a great job beating the right tackle off the snap, showing good power initially then some surprising agility and balance to get around the edge. Anderson swam by the left tackle with an inside move and both players met in the backfield.

I have to say, it was the only play Anderson made all night on another deeply underwhelming performance.

Young had a solo-sack with 11:13 left in the game. He showed great hand-fighting ability against the right tackle, barging him into the backfield. He then disengaged to bring down the quarterback. He did it again with 9:56 left in the game to bring the QB down by his legs. Ridiculously the stats-makers didn’t credit him with a sack here or the Anderson one, meaning he ‘officially’ only gets one sack but it really should be 2.5. He is very underrated and I would love to see him in Seattle as a 3-4 defensive end. He’s consistent, shows good power and ability to control the point of attack and he has enough about him to shoot gaps, shake off blockers and get into the backfield.

For me Byron Young warrants a day two grade.

This was not a good game, however, for Bryce Young. It started with a terrible interception in the red zone. Young tried to scramble, saw there were no running lanes available and made a late call to try and throw instead. He threw it straight to a defensive back for a huge error.

After that he was all over the place. He was inaccurate all night. I want to give him the benefit of the doubt and say he looked hurt and that the shoulder injury is still bothering him. He should’ve had another pick on the last play of the third quarter. He threw behind his receiver and the ball hit a defender on the arm before bouncing to the turf.

Then from nowhere he scrambled away from numerous tackles and had the ability to throw downfield to two wide open receivers for a touchdown. This was Young at his creative best. Even so — that moment of magic couldn’t gloss over what was otherwise a challenging night.

I saw this tweet from Jim Nagy during the game. I think it’s indicative of how the league views Young. The questions about his size and ability to stay healthy and at his best will remain. How early can you roll the dice? Whether he succeeds or not in the NFL, these are fair, relevant questions. Do not assume he will be a very high first round pick. He is naturally talented and a good player. But there isn’t anyone like him to compare to and he will face challenges at the next level. His creative spark might combat a lot of that — but it’s also possible teams will see a player who is banged up currently and suffering as a consequence. He will go in round one but it might not be quite as high as everyone thinks.

BJ Ojulari again showed he’s a natural as a 3-4 OLB. He’s so fluid in space but has the power to drive blockers backwards into the quarterback. He can drop comfortably into coverage. He has a long, lean frame. There’s something to work with here.

Jahmyr Gibbs again showed he’s an explosive, electrifying talent. This was only a contest because Alabama wisely leaned on Gibbs in the second half.

Safety Brian Branch is growing on me. In this one he delivered a legal jarring hit — the kind you want to see a safety make. His read/react skills are good. He has good size. In previous games I’ve seen him make some nice plays in coverage. He can play some slot. Testing will be important for him.

A couple of quick final points. The refs were awful all night, making awful decisions that impacted both teams. Also, LSU thoroughly deserved to win.

Other notes

— Not enough evaluators online consider the scheme implications when discussing quarterbacks. It’s a huge thing we need to consider. For example, the demands on Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are far greater than Hendon Hooker. They are making adjustments at the line, reading coverages and have protection requirements. Scheme can also manufacture production and we’re seeing a lot of that too. You have to look beyond numbers, wins and highlight throws and think about how players translate to the next level. What will the learning curve be? How does a players’ skill-set put them in a position to succeed if they need to experience a learning curve? Who will be limited once they leave their college scheme? These are big questions and it’s why, so often, traits matter because they are projectable. It’s why it can be very dangerous to spend a high pick on a quarterback, even with traits, when they have no experience or tape showing an ability to process, adjust or make progressions/reads.

— Michael Penix is a good example of a player who benefits from scheme. He had an awful pick six against Oregon State to illustrate the problem. He tried to look off the defenders over the middle with a glance to his left (this is what all these half-field schemes have their quarterbacks do) and then throw to the intended target. The problem is — none of the defenders bought it. He threw blind over the middle to a receiver blanketed by a triangle of three defenders. It’s because it’s a scripted play and he’s not reading anything. He’s just doing what the sideline tells him to do. C.J. Stroud, Penix and Hooker have all had turnovers like this over the last few weeks.

— Penix clearly has a big arm. A pro arm. Yet he should’ve had another pick six with eight seconds left in the first half against the Beavers. His throwing motion means he arms a lot of throws and puts his shoulder into it. He throws late. The technique and timing was all off on this play. He will be drafted because of the arm but his scheme, his technique and his injury history will likely keep him in the later rounds.

— I will keep saying it — Anthony Richardson is going to go a lot higher next year than people realise. How many players can do what he does? Another huge 60-yard touchdown run against Texas A&M. Two rushing scores on the day. He’s throwing with confidence over the middle on 3rd and 8. He is actually processing at the LOS, adjusting plays and making reads. On the run he’s throwing a late pitch on third down to create and make something happen for a conversion, after threatening to run to draw the defenders to him. He can throw on the run without needing to reset his feet and his velocity is fantastic. He threw a very nice, catchable fade for a touchdown. His second passing touchdown showed poise in the pocket, he escaped pressure and found his guy. I’m not sure half the people criticising him have watched his games. Yes there are inconsistencies and areas where he needs to develop. He’s only played a handful of games for Florida. Once he’s worked things out and gained experience — watch out. I think he’ll be a top-five pick.

— Florida linebacker Ventrell Miller again showed he is a tremendous run defender. He flashed great read/react skills against Texas A&M. He was flying to the ball. He’s physical. I really hope he tests well enough to be considered by Seattle.

— Texas running back Bijan Robinson ran for 209 yards on 30 carries vs Kansas State. He added two catches for 34 yards. Anyone who doesn’t put this guy in the top five of their big board is taking the piss. Most NFL teams will grade him as one of the best three players in the draft — if not the very best. He has everything. Great size. Breakaway speed. Dynamic cuts. Explosive traits. The ability to finish runs. Pass-catching talent. What a talent.

— Will Levis and Kentucky had a lot to prove after the horror show against Tennessee last week and they recorded a vital win at Missouri against a really good defense. The ESPN commentator mentioned before the game he’d spoken to NFL teams and they threw the Tennessee game out (as I suggested they might last week). It was a buzzsaw type of contest where Kentucky had no chance and Levis simply had to try and make something (anything) happen and he pressed. It’s to be expected. That type of game can be thrown out if you bounce back — and he did. In this game he felt a whole heap of pressure yet again (the story of his season) and Levis was sacked six more times. Missouri also had 11 TFL’s. That’s the kind of adversity he’s faced all year. He still stood tall in the pocket, delivered accurate passes and had a crucial game winning drive at the end. He finished with three touchdowns and zero turnovers. NFL teams will love that after last week. All of the big name 2023 eligible quarterbacks have had their challenges this year but Levis remains the most pro-ready, the most projectable prospect and for me — still the most likely player to go first overall.

— There was nothing to learn from C.J. Stroud’s performance against Northwestern. The weather conditions were so bad he could barely open his eyes at the LOS pre-snap. The numbers look dreadful but the wind and rain was sending the ball all over the place. Neither team could kick let alone throw. It looks like a poor result for Ohio State against a struggling team but I’m inclined to say Stroud actually did well just to get out with a win. He found a way to impact the game as a runner when throwing simply wasn’t possible (79 yards rushing vs 76 yards throwing).

— Two defenders we’ve discussed recently had their moments again over the weekend. Brilliant, physical safety JL Skinner intercepted a Jaren Hall pass and Michigan defensive end Mike Morris had 1.5 sacks in a win against Rutgers.

— Dorian Thompson-Robinson threw a lofted interception on the first play of the game against Arizona State but rallied to score four total touchdowns in another win for the Bruins. He finished 13/20 for 169 yards passing while running for a further 120 yards. A lot of his completions were difficult third and long conversions. He had one amazing run in this game where he hurdled a defender, ran around and got a few extra yards. He was unstoppable as a runner. He’s really benefitting from staying in school, developing and growing into the position. DTR even recovered a bad fumble by the running back to avert disaster at the start of the third quarter. UCLA didn’t have Zach Charbonnet due to injury and the quarterback picked up the slack. Jake Bobo also made a fantastic catch on a seam-route from DTR for a good chunk of yards (they repeated the act on a shorter completion in the third quarter). I really like DTR. Considering how much hype some other quarterbacks get, he doesn’t get enough attention. He’s creative, athletic and accurate.

— Has there been a worse coaching job this year than Mario Cristobal at Miami? What a disaster zone that team is.

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Instant reaction: Seahawks win fourth in a row

November 6, 2022 /

I can’t recall ever feeling better about a second half offensive performance.

The Seahawks started off playing a very conservative brand of football. I suppose it wasn’t a bad idea. Arizona’s tricky, blitzing offense can cause problems. We’ve seen that. Avoiding the potential for chaos isn’t a terrible plan.

When they were leading by three points it was fine to tick along, too. Yet the pick-six both changed the game and made a bit of an issue of Seattle’s predictable high-percentage pass plays, with most of Geno Smith’s throws not even reaching the line of scrimmage.

Having talked about unlocking Geno after week two — and it succeeding — they’d suddenly put him back in the box.

At 14-10 you could be forgiven for feeling some concern. Could the offense suddenly shift through the gears?

The answer was an emphatic ‘yes’.

Seattle subsequently took Arizona’s soul with three drives that can be filed in the ‘masterclass’ territory. Smith — calmness personified — just controlled the offense. He didn’t panic. His throws were on time and accurate. He made things tick. They sprinkled in power running. Their blocking was textbook, including downfield.

I might be mistaken but it’s always felt like the McVay offense has succeeded against Arizona. The tight end running across the formation play is a focal point of that scheme and the Seahawks milked it dry here.

How many times have we seen opponents do that against Seattle? Keep going to the well with no answer? What a joy to witness the Seahawks do that to Arizona today.

I can’t speak highly enough of Smith for what he showed after that pick-six. For me, that’s the highlight of his already outstanding season. That took some balls. But it also required maturity and calm.

His attitude and personality in that moment was infectious as everyone did their jobs — O-line, running back, tight ends, receivers.

The Seahawks looked like a powerhouse at the end. How joyous it is to write that.

Meanwhile the defense once again complemented things. Yes the tackling wasn’t great today and the drive at the end was a bit too easy when it would’ve been nice to finish things off. Yet they made enough plays on the day.

Uchenna Nwosu now has seven sacks with a full eight games still to play. Shelby Harris had another big play for a sack. Bruce Irvin got a sack. The young cornerbacks showed well again.

It’s four wins in a row heading to Germany and what an opportunity now to genuinely achieve something this season. You want to keep your hopes and expectations in check but increasingly, it’s difficult to do that.

See you in Munich.

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Curtis Allen’s week nine watchpoints (vs Cardinals)

November 6, 2022 /

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen. After the game today tune into the instant reaction live stream which will be available on here and on our YouTube channel

It is fascinating how quickly things can change in the NFL.

Three weeks ago, the Cardinals came into Seattle with both teams at 2-3 and coming off frustrating losses the week before.  Neither team had a claim to a good, solid schedule of play.  Mistakes, disorganization and chaos ruled their games.

If you recall, I found it difficult to put a good Watch Points post together because there was so much randomness to both teams’ play.

The Seahawks have evened out their performance greatly.  After beating Arizona handily, they went to Los Angeles and proved the Arizona win was not a fluke.  They then took another big step forward in beating the Giants.  The defense has come alive and is finally complementing the offense.

How about the Cardinals?

After losing to the Seahawks, Arizona split their next two games.

DeAndre Hopkins is back with a vengeance.  In two games he has 22 catches on 27 targets for 262 yards and a touchdown.  He seems intent on making up for lost time and the offense looks vastly different with him in the game.

The defense has gone the other way.  In their last two games they have given up an average of 34 points and 438 yards, after an effective five game stretch allowing an average of only 19 points and 307 yards.  This has put a lot of pressure on the offense to carry the team and that has provided mixed results.

They hosted New Orleans and won by eight points on the strength of the Saints committing three turnovers.

They then went to Minnesota and flipped the scenario, losing by eight points after turning the ball over three times themselves.

The Cardinals are at a crossroads.  They stand at 3-5 and their next three games are against division opponents.  

It is not hyperbole to say their season is already on the line.  If the Seahawks beat them on Sunday, they fall to three and a half games behind in the race for the division title.  The pressure to just keep their heads above water the next two weeks against the Rams and Niners would ratchet up to high levels.  They have not responded well to adversity this year.  Losing to Seattle Sunday could lead to a bad downward spiral and an ugly season.

Pete Carroll is 7-5 in his Seahawks tenure in the second game of the season against Arizona, including a 2-1 mark against Kliff Kingsbury.

The team could really use the momentum of sweeping a division rival to propel them to Germany next week and into their bye week.  How can they make that happen?

Control the Game Script with the Offense

This is a recycled point from Week Six but the divide has grown even more in Seattle’s favor:

-The Seahawks are the #1 offense in the NFL in First Quarter scoring, while the Cardinals are the #32 defense in the NFL in the same category

-The Cardinals are the #32 offense in the NFL in First Quarter scoring while Seahawks are #12 on defense

There is a clear advantage there and the Seahawks need to take advantage of it.  There is no excuse to not come racing out of the gate while the Cardinals are still trying to lace up their cleats.

Division games are always hard-fought and the team that can build a lead holds a decisive advantage.

How important is controlling the game?  Let’s illustrate it by looking at the Cardinals’ win over the Saints two weeks ago.  

Arizona scored a touchdown and two-point conversion to pull even with the Saints at 14-14 with only 2:28 to go in the half.  135 seconds later, the Cardinals had a 28-14 lead thanks to Andy Dalton throwing two pick-sixes.

The Saints went from up 14-6 to down 28-14 in the time in between heartbeats.  They mercifully kneeled to burn the last 46 seconds off the clock and went into the locker room with their heads spinning.

The second half featured Andy Dalton passing heavily, desperately trying to get the Saints back into the game.  They only called five runs in the second half.  A team with Alvin Kamara, Taysom Hill and Mark Ingram only called five runs!  The Cardinals called off their blitzing dogs and flooded coverage in the backfield.  The Saints offense couldn’t get any chunk plays.  Nor could the defense get pressure on Kyler Murray to get him off the field.  Ballgame.

That game obviously unraveled quickly on two very bad plays.  Between Geno Smith’s accuracy and the sheer volume of probability, the chances are that will not happen to the Seahawks.

However, it does illustrate how getting a lead and making your opponent one-dimensional can be a tremendous weapon.

How can the Hawks do it?  

Explosive plays have always been a feature of their attack against Arizona.  The Cardinals have a strange propensity for giving them up.  Seattle’s offense had eight explosives in Week Six. As I have mentioned before, they actually have one more unofficial explosive from that game, in the form of Ken Walker’s 11-yard touchdown run.  Only the goal line prevented him from getting that extra yard to make it nine.

The Saints only managed two explosive plays against this defense and that came as we discussed above.  Having the game in hand, the Cardinals chose to drop in coverage and keep the game in front of them.  They only blitzed the Saints ten times in 49 dropbacks.

The Vikings, with a more even performance, returned the Cardinal defense to their normal schedule, with eight explosive plays on offense, including four explosive runs from Dalvin Cook.  This bodes well for Ken Walker, Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and the tight ends.

The key to getting those explosive plays again for the Seahawks will be to play the game they came to play.  

That means minimizing a weakness the Seahawks have had — being susceptible to the Cardinals’ exotic blitzing schemes.  Geno Smith was sacked a season-high five times by the Cardinals in Week Six.  No other team has even come close to getting that many against this reformed offensive line.

All five of those sacks came on third downs, with these yardages to go:  6, 13, 7, 12, 13.  They were obvious passing situations and the Cardinals took advantage.  All told, Arizona sacked Smith on five of their seven third and longs.  That is 71% – an extremely high rate of success.

How high?  On the season, the Seahawks only allow sacks in those situations on about 20% of their third and longs.  They need improvement to keep that number down to their season average in this game.  The good news is, they have already demonstrated it.

A positive development came from last week’s game against the Giants.  As we discussed last week, Wink Martindale is also an advocate of heavy, creative blitzing.  They blitzed 17 times but the Seahawks allowed only three sacks.  One of them was on a second down that they shook off and went on to score a touchdown.  The other two?  They both occurred on a single other drive and the Seahawks punted.  Only one of the Giants’ sacks was on a third and long play out of six such plays overall.  A drastic improvement.

The offensive line the Cardinals will face is the same group of guys but a more confident, accomplished line than the one that surrendered five key sacks in Week Six.

If the offense can keep up their early-game success, they can put a ton of pressure on the Cardinals offense and this will help the defense tremendously…

Get After Kyler Murray

The Seahawks’ pass rush really righted their ship in Week Six.  They sacked Murray six times.  That game was a real breakthrough.

What makes it even better?  The sacks came in a wide variety of ways.  Uchenna Nwosu got a coverage sack, Ryan Neal got one on a safety blitz, Darrell Taylor had a strip sack, Quentin Jefferson got one on a fourth down and Poona Ford and Shelby Harris beat their men inside.

What makes it even better than that?  The Seahawks accomplished their six sacks on only two – count ‘em, two! – blitzes.  More than that, they also recorded thirteen pressures, including ‘just missed’ sacks that Bruce Irvin should have had.  The Valhalla of getting a real pass rush with only your front four was reached.

Playing an opponent for a second time, it can be a struggle to replicate the success of that first game in specific areas.  What makes us think the Seahawks’ defense can regularly get pressure on Murray again Sunday?

First off, the Cardinal game was not a one-time thing.  The following week against the Chargers, they sacked Justin Herbert three times and recorded nine pressures on only seven blitzes.  The Giants game?  They sacked Daniel Jones five times and recorded eleven pressures on only three blitzes.

One game can be a fluke.  Two games can be brushed off with weak opponents.  Three games in a row?  That is a pattern.  And it is an excellent one at that.

Secondly, the Arizona offensive line is currently a disaster zone.  Guard Justin Pugh is out for the season.  Top center Rodney Hudson has already been ruled out for Sunday by Kliff Kingsbury.  Left Tackle D.J. Humphries was inactive against Minnesota with a bad back and has been rested in practice this week.  Even if he plays Sunday, that may be an opportunity for Nwosu and Irvin to be very disruptive on the blind side.

How have the backup Cardinal linemen been doing?  We can encapsulate their recent performance in one clip from Week Six.

Click the link and watch Bryan Mone on backup Center Sean Harlow, who so far this season is rated in the 40’s by PFF.

Minnesota had a field day last week with Murray.  They sacked him four times and recorded nine pressures on only three blitzes.  The offensive line struggled to keep up and the Cardinals were forced to become one-dimensional, running the ball with their backs a grand total of three times for five yards in the second half of the game.  

Murray also narrowed his vision even further, targeting Hopkins nine times in the second half.  About half of Hopkins’ yards came in garbage time, as the Vikings were defending a deep strike and readily allowing underneath throws.

When Murray was not getting sacked or pressured, he was running for his life and making bad throws into a seven-man backfield.  An interception he threw in the second half turned into a Vikings touchdown.  A muffed punt by the Cardinals was turned into another Viking touchdown and put their defense just too far behind the eight-ball.  Game over.

Kyler Murray and the offense this year have been very uneven.  Murray has been spotted yelling at his head coach on one play and on the next, throwing for a brilliant touchdown.  They are disjointed, missing key players and playing like wounded animals.  Lethal yet inconsistent.  Explosive yet erratic.  

If the offense does their job to get a handle on the scoreboard early, you can expect that kind of disparity to grow further.  The defense will be able to pin their ears back and get after Murray while keeping defenders in the middle of the field.

That is, if they keep one of the NFL’s top receivers from taking the game over…

Defend DeAndre Hopkins

Incredibly, between injury and suspension, the Seahawks have only faced Hopkins as a Cardinal in two of the five available games since he came to Arizona.

His numbers in those games were extremely productive — 15 catches on 20 targets for 10 first downs and a touchdown.

This year he has been targeted 27 times in two games — by far the most of any Cardinal player in that stretch.  As I wrote above, when Murray felt threatened and needed to get the offense moving, Hopkins was his go-to target.

A third game with the pairing this year will be very interesting to see how they play together.  The rust (if there ever was any) is off and they will be able to really gameplan the offense in a way they could not in Week Six.

Where will Hopkins line up?  Against the Saints, they split him almost evenly between the left side and the right.  They changed their tactic against Minnesota, lining him up only on the left side all game.  Or put another way, on the side opposite Patrick Peterson.  Hopkins burned Chandon Sullivan, Harrison Smith and Cameron Dantzler all equally.

It is likely fair to say that several defenders therefore will get the pleasure of drawing one the NFL’s toughest assignments.  

One thing that has given Kliff Kingsbury’s coaching ability some positive shine is his ability to move Hopkins around and get favorable matchups.  This year, he has split Hopkins out wide and then had him motion towards the quarterback and when the ball is snapped, he is ‘stacked’ behind the slot wide receiver or tight end.  The defender must make a quick decision to pass off his primary receiver or pick up Hopkins.  That half second of decision makes the corner turn his back to Kyler Murray and opens up all kinds of cuts and back-shoulder throws.

When teams line up off the line of scrimmage and give Hopkins a cushion, Murray and Hopkins simply take the free six or seven yards with a quick slant throw.

Tariq Woolen, Coby Bryant and Mike Jackson will get a real workout in this area on Sunday.  While the rookies have been tested time and again and answered the bell, this is a supreme challenge to keep a player under wraps.  Particularly one who has come out of the gate so terribly hot.  This is the matchup to watch Sunday.

But again, everyone will have a part in defending Hopkins.  These plays I described for Hopkins do not make Murray process very much.  If the pass rush can do their job, Murray will not get as many chances to make easy throws and that can put a lot of strain on his ability to effectively move the ball down the field.

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