Category: Front Page News (Page 5 of 367)

I’ve just got back to the hotel following the Apple Cup and wanted to share my observations…

I’ve enjoyed watching Michael Penix this season. He has excellent arm strength, he comes across well and he has elevated his team. There’s no getting away from the fact this was a poor performance though.

I’ve mentioned recently that he’s been ‘off’ with his accuracy for a few weeks and has resorted to throwing to areas rather than aiming passes. A reminder that his completion percentage was 74.9% through five games and then in the next six, it’s dropped to 59.5%. Today he completed 54.5% of his throws, dropping that number even further to 58.5%.

There were several misses in the first half despite a lack of pressure forcing mistakes. He was off-target and inaccurate and there appeared to be miscommunication issues. I hate to say it but it was very much like watching the Seahawks at times. Nothing was clicking.

His first touchdown came on a coverage bust. The defensive back covering Rome Odunze fell over at the LOS allowing a free 40-yard score. The second touchdown was a classic hook-up between Penix and Odunze. The ball’s in a spot where Odunze can adjust to the football and catch at the back-shoulder. I was told this week that Odunze can run a 4.37 forty and given his sensational body control, consistency, hands and first-class character — there’s no doubt for me he’ll be a very high pick. Don’t be shocked if he goes in the top-10.

Penix’s interception was a bit unlucky — it’s just a good play by the defensive back at the start of the third quarter. However, the wayward throws continued. He threw wildly to Jack Westover who had to make a flying grab despite being wide open. That was right before the second TD to Odunze. For some reason, every time Penix throws to Westover it’s an adventure. It’s like he’s trying to test him with every target.

The end of the game was a mess, even though Washington won. A generous roughing the passer penalty put them in field goal range. What followed was a confusing, fairly awful sequence. All they needed to do was run to kill clock and set up the field goal. Instead, Penix underthrew a pass over the middle to the end zone that should’ve been picked off. Then with just 20 seconds remaining he threw an awful pass to the right corner of the end zone. It needed to go outside (back-shoulder to Odunze) but was thrown inside. The cornerback was ideally placed to make a pick but instead tipped it into the air and it fell incomplete.

Then, Penix sat in the pocket and took a Geno Smith-esque sack for a loss of nine yards, making the field goal attempt far harder. It was bizarre. Everything, it seems, was done to try and blow the end of the game — including the quarterback throwing two turnover-worthy passes and then taking a sack.

As noted, there weren’t any spectacular throws. We’ve seen so many this year, to counter some of the inconsistent stuff. There was one genuine NFL level pass. Penix armed a throw over to the sideline. It’s tight coverage and the DB had position to play the ball, maybe even pick it off. He needed every bit of his arm strength to beat the corner and get it through to the receiver. It was a bullet. But he ended that drive throwing behind his receiver while on the run for an incompletion.

I didn’t see layered passes today. There was very little thrown over the middle. Washington’s offense is playing at a concerning level ahead of the Oregon rematch.

I have to say, I felt like I was watching a mid-round pick today. Despite what some sections of draft media are saying, that might be where he goes. The accuracy issues for several weeks now are part of the issue. The injuries will need to be considered. I was talking to someone recently — and I wasn’t even aware of this — but your entire offense has to change when you start a lefty. It’s not just blocking — the receivers need to learn and adjust to catching passes from a left-handed quarterback.

Me saying he’s probably a third rounder will seem like criticism but that’s only because of ill-judged media hype elsewhere. That might be what he is — and it might be best for him because the team that gets him can take the time to prepare for a lefty to start, allow him to adjust to a new scheme and it’ll give him the best chance to succeed.

I think Bralen Trice is an excellent prospect. He worked through a double team to get a sack in the game and really should’ve been credited with another when he bull-rushed a linemen, disengaged and then worked to the QB. He has a fantastic combination of size, length and agility. I’m told he runs a 4.20 short shuttle at arouind 270lbs. He has every chance to be a top-50 pick.

I enjoyed watching Troy Fautanu live. I’m a big fan. He plays left tackle for the Huskies but looks tailor-made to kick inside to guard. There’s some Alijah Vera-Tucker to his game and he might go in a similar range. Great athlete, he plays with a strong base and can control and anchor. The kind of lineman who deserves to go early.

Washington State quarterback Cam Ward made this a game with some important throws. Like Penix, he also had some misses. I think it really helped seeing him live today. He’s fun to watch but lacks zip in his throws, I’m not sure he’s got the physical potential to start in the NFL and as a runner he’s more elusive than creative. He’s probably a late day three pick at best.

I’ve mentioned Josh Kelly a few times. He’s been a consistent force at receiver for Washington State. He’s also made some incredible catches this year. He had eight catches for 106 yards and a score today. I like him. I appreciate he’s not going to generate much draft buzz but there’s something there. He deserves some attention.

I’m going to enjoy an Old Fashioned in the hotel bar on my final night. I’ve got an article ready to publish tomorrow on the Seahawks. A couple of quick final thoughts. Firstly, a big thank you to Robbie Williams, Curtis Allen and the people at the University of Washington for making this trip a tremendous experience. I’ve been well reminded over the last few days why I fell for the Pacific Northwest 17 years ago and will take every opportunity I can get to come back here. The setting at UW is mind-blowing — the view of Lake Washington next to the stadium has to be seen to be believed. Being given a chance to tour the facility on Thursday was unforgettable.

Finally, jet lag is the undefeated champion of lags.

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This feels different.

The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have had some tough losses over the years. For the most part though, to Carroll’s credit, he’s fielded a team capable of making a difficult outing a close contest.

The 2023 Seahawks are different because they simply can’t do it. Instead, they’re being exposed. The Ravens and 49ers have brutally shown them up. They’ve made it abundantly clear that not only are the Seahawks not at their level, they’re not even close to reaching it.

Having pumped resources into the roster — using a treasure-trove of picks courtesy of the Russell Wilson trade, borrowing their 2024 second rounder on a Leonard Williams rental and using every dollar available to them in cap space both this year and next, they’ve played their hand. Yet the end product is poor.

This isn’t just a young, upstart team taking its lumps. They have young players going through the early years of their careers but every team has that. The reality in Seattle is this is a very expensively acquired roster and far more should be expected from it than 37-3 in Baltimore and 31-13 at home against the 49ers — a scoreline that could’ve easily been far worse.

So much is wrong currently but you have to start with the offense.

I can’t recall a unit so poorly managed as this. Going into the season it looked like a major strength. They had exciting skill-players everywhere. They had a veteran quarterback. The offensive line received investment including a top-10 pick at left tackle. Everything was set up.

Instead of being a strength the offense is a disaster.

The route concepts are so painfully basic. They fail to challenge opponents with any serious misdirection or creativity. They spent two second round picks on the running back position and it’s an afterthought in the offense.

D.K. Metcalf is regressing badly. Geno Smith has regressed badly. They don’t know how to involve the tight ends in the passing game. Tyler Lockett isn’t being used enough.

They get almost no push up front with the offensive line and they’re being bullied most weeks.

Third downs? Awful, week after week. Red zone offense? As bad as you’ll ever see.

The whole thing is broken.

How could they come out in this game against a common opponent and not have anything to throw at them? They started the game with a quarterback draw from a QB who’d spent the entire week nursing an injury. If it wasn’t a draw and simply a blown play, what does that say for the organisation of the offense if you botch your first offensive play in a scripted series?

The next two play-calls? A throw that required Smith to arm it out to the sideline or risk an interception (again, with a bad injury to his arm) and then a dropped interception. This, of course, after being gifted great field position by a Dee Eskridge kick return.

How was that the plan? Especially from a team still claiming they want to run the ball — claims made by their words and actions (drafting Walker & Charbonnet). Then look at the 49ers. Creative, different, deceptive, imaginative, fast.

Whatever happens, it’s impossible to see how Shane Waldron can carry on beyond this season. This is a unit that had everything to succeed and instead it’s a hopeless mess.

He isn’t alone. D.K. Metcalf is on a contract worth $24m a year. They aren’t getting value for money. Geno Smith was far from ‘the problem’ tonight but he isn’t the solution either. You are not going to elevate yourself from what we’ve seen this year to a true contender with Smith under center. They have to draft a quarterback and pair him with a far more productive offensive play-caller.

Defensively it’s difficult to know how far to go. Every week there seems to be a caveat that the offense was so bad, the defense is absolved somewhat of blame. They made some nice stops against the 49ers and had a pick-six for the only touchdown of the game for Seattle. Yet they’re just so easy to play against at times.

Bobby Wagner was picked on again, with Kyle Shanahan following Sean McVay in identifying his lack of mobility in space as an area to exploit. It looked like his feet were made of concrete in the first half. Tackling was poor across the board. They gave up 169 rushing yards (so much for that being fixed) and the D-line was pushed around almost as much as the O-line. Pass rush? Nobody was able to beat a man to make a big play.

Devin Witherspoon is a quality player. He can’t do it on his own though.

Seattle had to make life difficult for Brock Purdy while containing Christian McCaffrey as much as they could. They failed in both areas.

Think about how much has been spent on this unit. Three recent second round picks on edge rushers (Taylor, Mafe, Hall). A huge free agent splash (Jones). An aggressive trade on a rental involving a second rounder (Williams). Another reasonable free agent addition (Reed). A first rounder at linebacker (Brooks) paired with a returning veteran (Wagner). A top-five pick at cornerback (Witherspoon) and a hugely expensive safety duo (Diggs & Adams) with one of the pair costing a fortune via trade. Then you’ve got all the big salaries dished out to the likes of Nwosu, Jones, Diggs and Adams.

Is there a team in the league that has used this much resource on the defense? At this level you expect more than simply beating up Daniel Jones behind a shocking Giants line and competing against the Carolina’s and Arizona’s. You expect a unit that can make you competitive. It isn’t happening.

I’ll finish with the man at the top, Pete Carroll.

It’s clear there was a marked difference in the preparedness to play this game. Kyle Shanahan had his team on it — exploiting weaknesses, flying out of the traps and dominating. The Seahawks were flat, slow and timid.

They don’t have an identity, they don’t do anything noticeably better than any other team and they’ve just been hammered twice in a matter of weeks.

Carroll will always be revered in Seattle for winning the cities’ first Super Bowl. Rightly so. He’s reset the team twice since the LOB glory days though and neither revamp has produced a team getting close to contention. The first reset was carried by Russell Wilson’s peak years. The second is currently sporting a 15-14 record without him.

Where are the Seahawks going under Carroll? There’s no signs of a team climbing the ladder. On recent evidence, they’ve fallen off it.

They’ve been trying for years to get back to the top table. It’s not happening. When does the wait become too long? Will winning two from three against the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals at the end of the year and backing into the playoffs as a seventh seed make everything OK, only to experience another game like we just saw against the 49ers in the wildcard round? What if they now miss the playoffs?

Will Carroll simply firing Waldron and going for the next name on the offensive coordinator list be enough to keep the wolves from the door? Or is it time for this franchise to go and find its own version of Shanahan and McVay if it’s serious about becoming a contender again?

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Where do the Seahawks go from here?

A demoralizing loss to the Rams that left Geno Smith banged up, the defense in fits over a gaggle of penalties, fans questioning Shane Waldron’s intelligence and Pete Carroll’s leadership is really dragging the optimism for Thursday’s game against the Niners down hard.

Is there anything we can cling to, to maybe get a spark?

There is.

In Pete Carroll’s tenure, the Seahawks have lost to the Rams 16 times.  What is their record in the following game?  11-3.  12-3 if you count the Rams beating them in the 2020 playoffs and the Seahawks beating Indianapolis in Week One the next year.

The three losses?  Two of them came in 2021, when they took the Steelers to OT in Geno Smith’s first start and then lost to the Bears by one point on a two-point conversion with a minute to play.  Both of those games get a doink the other way and they are a gaudy 14-1 after a Rams loss.

Is that grasping at straws?  You better believe it is.

And yet, this is the upside of consistently having a 9-7, 10-6 or 9-8 team in Seattle:  They have a few clunkers each year but they also do pull out some wins that are not expected.

The team will need a far better effort than Sunday though.  Coming to Lumen are the loaded-for-bear San Francisco 49ers.  They used their bye week to great effect, snapping themselves out of a 3-game losing streak by demolishing the Jacksonville Jaguars and beating the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  They have quickly reclaimed their place as one of the best teams in the NFC and the presumptive favorite to win the NFC West.

The Rams offered Matthew Stafford and his 54% completion rate and 70 QB rating.  The Niners have Brock Purdy coming off an 84% completion rate and a perfect 158.3 QB rating.

The Rams had banged-up Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  The Niners have a red-hot Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

The Rams rolled out Byron Young and had Aaron Donald running more stunts than I had seen in a long time. The Niners have Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave and now Chase Young.

I think you get the idea.

Absent the Niners tripping over their own cleats, the Seahawks have a mountain of things to clean up to make this game a competitive one.  And that is where we must start.

Play Solid, Fundamental Football

This watch point is going to feel like a simple list of sins the Seahawks committed on Sunday.  If any of these things creep into the game against San Francisco, it will be a very hard struggle to establish any momentum to meet this matchup.

They simply cannot give the Niners 130 yards in penalties and expect to be competitive, no matter what kind of day the referees are having.

The offense cannot blunt a nice drive with a key penalty in Field Goal range that backs them up and forces them to settle for a try instead of pushing into the red zone and scoring touchdowns.

They must have a more balanced offense.  Abandoning the ground game in favor of the pass will give the Niner defense all the opportunities they need to make this game easy for them.

On that point, want to see something crazy?  Tampa Bay ran out almost the exact same game mix in their loss last week against San Francisco that the Seahawks did against the Rams.  Witness:

Seattle Running Game:  21 rushes for 68 yards.  Tampa?  18 for 66.

Seattle Passing: 24 of 40 for 236 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  Tampa?  29 for 45, 246 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

You see the problem.  San Francisco won by 13 points and it was not worse due to a good defensive effort by the Bucs.  A Seattle output like that against San Francisco will not provide the desired result.

To be fair, Tampa’s mix was more by design.  Years of catering to Tom Brady has left them with a bare cupboard in the running back department and their only option was to put the game in Baker Mayfield’s hands.

The Seahawks?  Their limitation came from the coaching staff being unwilling or unable to do something so blindingly easy as run the ball and eat the clock with a lead in the second half.

Speaking of that, all three of San Francisco’s losses this season?  They lost the time of possession battle.  Keep that offense off the field, fellas.

On defense, the pass rush must step up.  They have the talent to get pressure without any blitzing packages or special tricks.  Devon Witherspoon, Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner coming screaming through the gaps for pressure is fun.  However, those plays should be the topping on the dessert of making Brock Purdy uncomfortable with their regular linemen.

They also absolutely must tighten up defensive fundamentals like coverage.  The Rams schemed Darrell Henderson wide open on a wheel route last week, but Stafford could not make the completion.  Julian Love was the closest defender to him but was a mile out of position.

Tackling as well.  I do not know how many times I can keep saying this.  The Seahawks are shooting themselves in the foot by not tackling well.  Quandre Diggs was the latest to just come steaming in on Sunday, trying to knock a player off his feet with a hit instead of making a sound wrap up tackle.  It did not work.

Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey force you to bring them down.  A mauling of the Giants in Week Three featured these three racking up seven broken tackles.  They challenged the Giants defense to take them down and they couldn’t.

Can the Seahawks?  We will see.

Limit Turnovers and Take the Ball Away from Them

We have talked about this before with San Francisco.

Their rankings this year are formidable.  They are the #3 scoring offense and the #1 scoring defense.  They are in the top-10 in all yardage categories except passing yards allowed per game (#15).

A consistent challenge for them in the recent past has been turnovers.

Their three-game losing streak this year featured seven critical turnovers by the San Francisco offense.

What were the circumstances around those turnovers?  The opposition got out to an early start and put pressure on San Francisco to keep up, while eating the clock.  The Niners got increasingly desperate as the game went on, and the turnovers mounted.  Of those seven turnovers, six of them came in the second half.

The one in the first half?  It was a brilliant play by the Vikings.  On their first drive by Minnesota, Charvarius Ward intercepted Kirk Cousins (really, he just ripped the ball out of the receiver’s hands).  Three good plays later, it looked like the Niners were about to take the lead, and the Vikings stripped Christian McCaffrey.  They recovered and then drove the length of the field for a touchdown.  The Vikings never trailed in the game.

Again, we are rightly frustrated with the Seahawk offense’s second half performance.  But we need them to come out of the gate with purpose like they did against the Rams and put their stamp on the game.  Otherwise, Kyle Shanahan has his entire playbook to work with and that is no good for anyone.

Geno Smith must also be sharp and smart with the football.  Offensive miscommunications, desperate throws and strange decisions cannot be regular occurrences in this game.

It should be noted – in their last two games, the Niners have not turned the ball over once, while forcing six against Jacksonville and Tampa, including four that led to the blowout of the Jaguars.  Turnovers cut both ways, people.

Primarily, the defense must create a turnover or two at a minimum and they cannot miss the chance when it is presented to them.

Limit the Number of Explosive Runs by the Niners (especially McCaffrey)

There is another common denominator to San Francisco’s three losses this year:  They were their three worst rushing performances as a team.  That is no coincidence.

In those three games, they had six explosive runs and ended up with 286 total yards, averaging 95 rushing yards per game.

Last year, the Seahawks also played San Francisco in three games.  How many explosive runs did they concede?

Twelve.  Double what those winning teams conceded.

Twelve runs of 10 yards or more.  And those included three ‘super explosive runs’ of 50 yards or more, one in each game.

The Seahawks conceded 540 yards rushing to San Francisco for an awful average of 180 yards per game.

The frustrating part is, take those explosives out and the Niners gained 226 attempts on 100 attempts, or 2.26 yards per rush.  Put another way, the Seahawks ‘won’ the majority of rush attempts but had catastrophic failures on the other ones.

It is incredibly easy (and silly) to say ‘the Seahawks just have to stop all the explosives and they are good.’  The game just doesn’t work that way.

However, it is reasonable to expect the Seahawks to allow no more ‘super explosive’ runs of 50 yards or more.  Take those three out of the equation from last year and their per rush average (even with the other nine explosives) is 3.36 yards per carry.

Can the Seahawks manage that?  Cleveland, Minnesota and Cincinnati could.

Currently, Cleveland (4.1 YPA) is right there in yards per rush attempt conceded with the Seahawks (4.1), Cincinnati (5.0) is much worse and Minnesota (3.7) is better.

Every time we have a game against a top opponent, I often cast my mind to significant investments the Seahawks have made.  The latest one of course is Leonard Williams.  This game is where he needs to prove that the very high price the Seahawks paid was worth it.  Williams, Jarran Reed, Mario Edwards and Dre Jones must have effective games to keep this rushing attack from controlling the game.

How important is it?  Think of all the weapons the Niners have on offense that can do damage to the Seahawks.  Names like Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel.

Christian McCaffrey has more touches than all three of those players combined.

In San Francisco’s three losses this year, McCaffrey only averaged 47 yards on the ground.

Seattle’s Wild Card loss last year?  McCaffrey had 15 carries for 119 yards.  Take out just that one explosive run of 68 yards and what did he get?

51 yards.

It is doable.  They can do it.

I’ve arrived in Seattle (I don’t remember the flight being +10 hours, every day’s a school day). Quick shout out to Mattia who I met at the airport.

The jet lag is kicking in so I’m going to run through the weekend notes quickly.

— Another week, another electric performance from Spencer Rattler. Nothing is surprising with draft media but the total lack of attention paid to Rattler is unbelievable. He’s completely turned his career around. Gone is the cocky gunslinger who trusted his arm to a fault, basically doing whatever he wanted in the name of an attempted big play. Now we see an incredibly mature signal-caller who plays within structure, has the arm talent and skill to be creative on the move and he’s spent the entire year playing behind a sieve of an O-line, giving him first-hand experience of dealing with pressure.

Look at this throw:

Let's gooooooooooooooo 🤙 https://t.co/Zjys3aSLPh pic.twitter.com/df7VmqmiNK

— Gamecock Football (@GamecockFB) November 19, 2023

It’s probably not in Rattler’s top-10 throws for the season (which is saying something) but it’s a big-time NFL play. He’s under immediate pressure. He knows he’s going to get hammered (and he was). He throws a strike anyway for a touchdown. He’s done this all season.

South Carolina have won five games this year and it could’ve been more. It’s all because of Rattler and the man who caught that touchdown, Xavier Legette. There’s no doubt for me Rattler belongs in the first round next year. If he lasts beyond that, someone will get a bargain. He is too talented to ignore. He’s been on a long journey from the High School documentary to Oklahoma and then South Carolina. The player we’ve seen this year is the player who was being touted as a potential top-five pick two years ago. A lot of the quarterbacks who are being talked up in the media wouldn’t stand a chance behind his O-line. He was superb against Kentucky on Saturday and don’t be surprised if a whole bunch of people suddenly remember who he is over the next few weeks.

— Jordan Travis suffered a serious injury on Saturday and will miss the rest of the season. It’s a crushing blow for a player who was showing a lot of promise as a potential mid-round pick (and it also pretty much ends any attractiveness in having Florida State in the final four). How will it impact his stock? He won’t be able to do anything pre-draft and teams will have to check on his progress and recovery throughout. It’s a huge shame for the player. I suspect this will have a fairly serious impact on his stock too, given the extent of the injury.

— Michael Penix Jr continued his run of being clutch, making some eye-catching throws while also being quite erratic and inconsistent in another win for Washington. You have to credit him for the way he is helping the Huskies remain unbeaten. You have to admire the arm talent. Yet you also can’t ignore what’s happened recently.

In the first four games of the season, his PFF grade was 89.9. In the next seven games, his average grade has dropped to 72.2. His completion percentage in the first five games was 75.9%. Again, the number has dropped considerably in the following six games (59.5%).

There’s another trend that’s interesting. PFF tallies ‘big time throws’ as a statistic. He had a season-high five BTT’s against Oregon State, matching the number he had against Oregon. He also had four against Utah, taking his season total to 30. This has enabled him to jump above Jayden Daniels (28) to have the second most BTT’s in college football behind Drake Maye (33). So while the completion percentage has dropped, he’s also started to make more big time throws.

Penix is a really difficult projection. Everything about his arm screams NFL starter. There are 3-5 throws every week where your jaw-drops — arm talent, power, accuracy, touch. Yet there are also so many throws that appear to just be pre-determined shots to areas of the field. Thus, the high number of incompletions. In the NFL you need to be able to throw layered passes with timing and anticipation. It can’t just be shots determined before the snap.

He’s also faced more pressure recently. He’s been sacked four times in the last four games, compared to one sack in his first four games. Penix faced 33 pressures in the first five games when he was putting up massive numbers. In the next six games, when the numbers dropped, he’s faced 67 pressures. Given he will face constant pressure in the NFL, is it safe to argue that what we’ve seen in recent weeks is a better reflection of what he’ll be in the NFL?

It’s also impossible to ignore the brilliance of Rome Odunze. Often you can just identify when he’s 1v1, throw it his general direction and his body control and tracking is so good he’ll make the play. He’s a first round talent.

I’ve spent more time agonising over Penix’s stock than any other player this season because it’s such a contrast in pro’s and con’s, what’s obviously good and what’s difficult to project as translatable. I’m hoping watching him live on Saturday might give me a definitive answer. I’m planning to publish my first horizontal board after the weekend’s college football games.

— It was more of the same for Miami and Tyler Van Dyke. He’s clearly a talented player and there’s a pro in him. However, the Hurricanes are just so badly managed he’s been caught up in the mess. He had some good throws at the weekend. He has a decent arm. He moves well for his size even if he’s never going to be an improv-artist or a threat with his legs. There are flashes where you think he’s legit, then he throws wildly on fourth down in the red zone with the game on the line. I actually hope he doesn’t turn pro and transfers to somewhere like Kentucky or Washington. Go somewhere where they’ve had transfer success with good offensive staffs.

— JJ McCarthy is the most overrated player in draft media. It’s not that he’s bad. He’s just not a first round talent. His arm is nothing special. His accuracy is spotty at best. Michigan have only played one good team (Penn State) and he had eight throws in the game. He’s carried by the rest of the team. On Saturday against Maryland he had a bad pick and two dropped interceptions. Where’s the hype coming from?

— LSU has decided that the rest of their season is a Heisman campaign for Jayden Daniels and I’m here for it. Eight total touchdowns on Saturday and they fed him every one. For more on Daniels, check out my piece from last week.

— Miami saftey Kam Kinchens. My word. He fell asleep in coverage to give Louisville their first score, not travelling with the man he was supposed to be covering. He was ‘Moss’d’ on a downfield shot. A tight end stiff-armed him into 2033. Then, after two other defenders ran into each other creating a wide-open receiver, the pièce de résistance. Kinchens had ideal positioning by the sideline. All he had to do was contain the receiver and push him out of bounds. It’s a bad play already, don’t make it worse. Somehow, the receiver (despite having no space) just runs straight by Kinchens. It’s one of the worst whiffs I’ve ever seen. It ended up being the game-winning score.

Sure, he read a telegraphed, poorly thrown pass for an interception from centre-field earlier. Great. The rest of his game was a house of horrors.

— From overrated to underrated — Washington State receiver Josh Kelly is a heck of a player. He produces spectacular plays, he’s a one-handed-catch ‘trick-shot’ specialist and he’s been a great target for Cam Ward. Another player I’m looking forward to seeing live on Saturday.

— T’Vondre Sweat needed a big season and he has delivered. He’s been the most consistent ‘splash’ interior D-liner this year. He had a blocked extra-point attempt on Saturday that was returned for a two-point conversion. His ability to create and disrupt at his mammoth size is highly impressive. If he can stay motivated and perhaps shift some bad weight, watch out NFL.

— Just as Will Howard was really finishing strongly, he had one of ‘those’ games for Kansas State and Kansas. He has a knack for bad turnovers and bad nearly-turnovers. Kudos to him for helping get the Wildcats over the line but it’s the type of game that makes you think day three instead of day two. That said, he did still have some really nice ‘pro’ throws in the game.

— There might not be a more unheralded duo in college football than Missouri’s Brady Cook and Cody Schrader.

— Carson Beck was excellent for Georgia against Tennessee — the best I’ve seen him play so far. I’m going to re-watch that game tonight before I collapse in a jet-lagged coma.

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I have a bunch of draft notes to file when I arrive in Seattle but just to let you know they won’t be posted until Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on how jet-lagged I am). My flight departs early afternoon UK time on Tuesday.

Very much looking forward to arriving and taking in a week of sport (if only the Seahawks were 7-3 instead of 6-4).

Simply unacceptable. That has to be the review of a game the Seahawks threw away.

Literally threw it away, you could argue.

Everyone knows Pete Carroll wants to run the ball. He mentions it all the time. He’s spent several weeks this season speaking of a desire to ‘get the running game going’. The Seahawks have used two second round picks on running backs in the last two drafts.

So why are they so utterly determined not to run the ball?

The second half of the Rams game was one of the worst examples of game management you’ll see. With the Seahawks leading 16-7, if ever there was a time to run the football this was it. Instead, they started the second half passing on 13/17 offensive snaps. Then Geno Smith got injured. Surely, even if they’d avoided the run to that point, they would turn to it now?

Nope. They continued to throw. Even with a cold backup quarterback on the field. More throws. It was astonishing to witness. At a time when killing the clock against a team who defends the run poorly (and has Aaron Donald rushing the passer) was the key, they refused to just hand the ball off to a highly drafted running back.

Matt Stafford threw an ugly interception on a clumsy looking trick play early in the fourth quarter. It was still 16-7. Surely even the Seahawks couldn’t fail to notice this was now, finally, the time to run? It’s the final quarter of the game. Take time off the clock, if nothing else.

Here’s the sequencing:

Pass
Run
Pass
Punt

The Rams got the ball back and scored a touchdown on a nine-play drive. It’s now 16-14. You’re still winning, with seven minutes left in the game. Seven minutes. So what do the Seahawks do on this drive?

Pass
Pass
Pass (interception)

The Rams got the ball back, kicked a field goal. That was the end of the scoring.

Second half numbers — 23 pass plays, six runs.

I can’t remember a game being so badly managed during the Pete Carroll era. It’s absolutely incredible. It totally belies the stated identity of the team. They were putting the game on the arm of Drew Lock, the backup quarterback, when all they had to do was run the ball and play for time with a 16-7 lead.

The end numbers were 40 combined throws, with two other plays resulting in sacks. Geno Smith also had a run for -1 yard, a potential pass play. In comparison, Seattle’s running backs had 20 carries in a game they led right up until the end. How?

It was all so obvious too. Here’s what Curtis Allen wrote in his game preview on this blog ahead of the game:

The Packers modelled a game plan the Seahawks should strongly consider in their 20-3 win over the Rams in Week Nine.

What did the Packers do on offense? They ran 38 times and passed 26 times.

They deployed a three-headed monster of Aaron Jones, A.J.Dillon and Emmanuel Wilson and didn’t ask Jordan Love to carry the offense. They got 185 yards on the ground, Love was a nicely efficient 20 for 26 for 228 yards and a sparkling 115 QB rating. They won the time of possession game by nearly 11 minutes and were never seriously challenged.

33 of those 38 carries were provided by the running backs, a number the Seahawks have yet to reach this season, despite the fact that they have a dynamic running back room that now includes Kenny McIntosh.

The Seahawks are running a 40/60 run/pass split so far this season and Geno Smith is nowhere near his 2022 pace in terms of production. A 20 for 26 passing game and a 115 QB rating off the back of a big rushing day would be a blessing for all parties involved.

This isn’t the first time Curtis has written something like this and I’ve highlighted it afterwards. When it’s obvious to everyone that a heavy dose of running is the order of the day — for a team claiming to want to be a running team, with its words and actions — why won’t they do it?

You can only come away from this experience feeling like they’ve lost all sense of what their identity is. I’d say they’re confused and muddled — yet they do the same thing every week. Is this their identity now? If so, why are they spending high picks on running backs? And why is Carroll the coach instead of one of the high-powered, pass-heavy offensive coordinators? If Carroll’s in charge, the least we should expect is his chosen brand of football, right?

Meanwhile, it’s week eleven now and we’re still seeing the same issues week after week.

The offense can look really good for a quarter or two but then totally disappear — grinding to a complete halt, unable to do anything well. They scored three points in the second half. We’ve seen this happen in multiple games this year, not just this occasion where Geno Smith and Ken Walker left the game.

Third downs and red zone work — consistently poor.

The defense cannot create consistent pressure. It’s OK beating up the Giants and other weak opponents. They barely laid a glove on Matt Stafford in the second half, didn’t do anywhere near enough to make his life difficult and once again seemed incapable of stopping the Sean McVay scheme once it started rolling on the final two drives. It feels like there’s no creativity and no ideas when games start to drift.

The Seahawks don’t do anything brilliantly. They’re streaky on both sides of the ball. They’re 6-4 and haven’t even faced the tricky part of their schedule yet.

The worst thing about it is they’ve invested so much in this season to produce this product. They only have $6m in effective cap space at the moment for next year. They can create more, sure, with some painful big-name cuts. But it’s indicative how much they’ve already invested. They’re borrowing on next year’s cap, they’re absolutely all-in on this year. They’ve made their big moves, invested their money. And they’re 6-4 and playing like this.

They’ve also spent their second round pick in 2024. They’re 1-2 since the Leonard Williams trade, a highly aggressive potential 10-game rental. That 1-2 record includes this horrible performance and the beat-down in Baltimore.

Financially and now in terms of their trade stock, the chips have well and truly been thrown into the middle of the table. The Seahawks are going for it. They’re not treating this like year two of a grand build. They are being highly aggressive.

That makes a result and performance like this so much harder to take.

People don’t realise how difficult the 2024 off-season is going to be. They’re going to have to do so much work to create cap space to retain or replace a long list of free agents. That will include some very painful cuts and some starters being allowed to walk.

I’m not exaggerating in saying a mini-reset could be unavoidable. See for yourself, head over to Over the Cap. Look who’s out of contract. Look how little they have to spend. Look how much certain players cost — and what it’ll take to cut them. Consider the depleted draft stock because of their big trade.

They thought they were a serious challenger after that Browns game and that’s why they made the deal with the Giants. Three games later, we can only conclude the following. Either they badly misjudged where this team is, or the people tasked with leading the roster aren’t doing a good enough job.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

On Sunday the Seahawks have one last game before the brutal five-game gauntlet laid out by the schedule-makers that will determine whether this team is a pretender or a contender.

I would surmise that the Rams are a perfect tune-up for it.

Just like the first game of the year, the Rams come into this one pretty banged up — with low expectations — and the Seahawks have a clear advantage in talent. The Rams are also on a three-game losing skid as part of a 1-5 run in the last six games that has tarnished the shine of an intriguing start to the season.

While we are all pre-disposed to never ever take a Rams team lightly, that should work in Seattle’s favor as a sparring partner for the heavyweights to come.

The Seahawks are a vastly different team than the one that played in Week One. Key players for this game who were not available for that one include: Jamal Adams, Devin Witherspoon, Leonard Williams and Jason Peters. Add to that the growth of young players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boye Mafe (a very adequate fill-in for Uchenna Nwosu), Zach Charbonnet and the Rams cannot plan on playing the same team they faced in Week One.

On the flipside, the Rams have Matt Stafford returning from a thumb injury, Cooper Kupp is back and they have lost starting running back to Kyren Williams to injury.

The Seahawks are 4-6 against the Rams in their last ten games. That includes a high of beating them last year to secure a playoff spot, and a low of being bounced out of the playoffs in the opening round after finishing the season 12-4.

We have seen it all in this matchup.

How can the Seahawks walk away with a win Sunday and get some momentum built up for the stretch run?

Start Early

I have said this so many times about the Seahawks-Rams matchup I feel like I am on auto-pilot: The Seahawks must avoid a ‘let’s feel them out and see what they’re doing’ mentality early in the game. They have to get ahead of the game and come out charging and let the Rams try to adjust to them for a change.

Let me give you three Matt Stafford stats that back this up:

— First Down is his Worst Down. This year his completion percentage on first down throws is a miserable 57%. He has thrown for only one touchdown, had four interceptions and been sacked six times on first down for a dismal 70 QB rating. The Rams are nearly 50-50 run/pass on first downs.

— He is not good in the First Quarter. A 61.9% completion rate, only one touchdown throw, one interception and two sacks while he’s still getting his feet under him.

— About 58% of Stafford’s passes are thrown when the Rams are behind in the score. How does he do? Awful. A 57.7% completion rate, 12 of his 19 sacks, three of his seven interceptions are a pretty good story of why the Rams have been stuck in the mud the last few games. When he is ahead, he is far more effective. Coach McVay can settle into the game plan that he wants to play and giving someone like him comfort is just asking for trouble.

The Seahawks offense was one of the best in the NFL at early-game scoring going into the Baltimore game, ranking third in first-quarter scoring. In the last two games they have scored a grand total of three points in the opening quarter. Now let’s be right, they lost in Baltimore and they beat Washington, so it was not a smoking gun that led to a loss both games. However, a return to their effective starts would do a great deal in putting the Rams on their heels a bit and shaking up the status quo.

How can they get the offense on track early?

Run the ball

The Packers modelled a game plan the Seahawks should strongly consider in their 20-3 win over the Rams in Week Nine. The Rams started Brett Rypien at quarterback and couldn’t get on track offensively.

What did the Packers do on offense? They ran 38 times and passed 26 times.

They deployed a three-headed monster of Aaron Jones, A.J.Dillon and Emmanuel Wilson and didn’t ask Jordan Love to carry the offense. They got 185 yards on the ground, Love was a nicely efficient 20 for 26 for 228 yards and a sparkling 115 QB rating. They won the time of possession game by nearly 11 minutes and were never seriously challenged.

33 of those 38 carries were provided by the running backs, a number the Seahawks have yet to reach this season, despite the fact that they have a dynamic running back room that now includes Kenny McIntosh.

The Seahawks are running a 40/60 run/pass split so far this season and Geno Smith is nowhere near his 2022 pace in terms of production. A 20 for 26 passing game and a 115 QB rating off the back of a big rushing day would be a blessing for all parties involved.

One way to help this along: Oddly enough, the Tight End trio had some of their lowest snap counts of the year in Week One. Nobody recorded 50% of the offensive snaps and they were a bit of an afterthought as the Seahawks could not get the offense working in the second half of the game.

A return to 12-Personnel sets would give this team some muscle in the run game and give the quarterback some very attractive options in the short to mid-range passing game.

Defend the pass better

When we look back at that Week One game, the horrible offensive performance is what seems to have been stamped in our minds. But the defense was a confused, uncoordinated mess too.

The Seahawks managed zero sacks and only three pressures the whole game for a 7.7% pressure rate on Stafford. That’s about as calm a day any NFL quarterback could ask for.

The Seahawks kept switching their defense up, hoping something would stop the offense. This caused communication issues, misalignments and the Rams took advantage nearly every single time.

Whenever they rushed only four and dropped seven, they simply ran the ball on that light front or Stafford still found open receivers and picked them apart on in-breaking routes again and again. Puka Nacua burst onto the scene with 10 catches for 119 yards in his first NFL game in an impressive performance.

Now to be fair, the Seahawks have since tightened up and been more solidified as a unit — particularly on the in-breaking routes.

But a new (and yet old) defensive problem has emerged for Sean McVay to scheme to attack this defense: the Running Back pass.

It is an old weakness that had not really gone away but has just recently been exploited by opponents in 2023. It reared its ugly head Sunday against the Commanders. The running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson combined for 11 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Several plays were ugly coverage breakdowns by the Seahawks and the Commanders exploited them to great effect.

Now the Seahawks currently stand – once again – as one of the worst teams in the NFL in defending running backs in the passing game.

That throws into sharp relief a paradox that has been growing and growing the last few weeks: If Riq Woolen (78 QB Rat/51% comp rate Allowed), Tre Brown (75/65%) and Devon Witherspoon (80/55%) have been so stunningly effective so far this season, why are the Seahawks in the bottom half of the NFL in pass defense?

Two problems were revealed Sunday by the Commanders: On both of their big running back catch plays, they found Boye Mafe (51 yards) and Dre Jones (48 yards) in coverage on their backs and exploited that for 99 yards.

Call it luck, call it scheming genius, call it whatever you want. There is absolutely zero chance that those plays escaped Sean McVay’s attention.

They simply cannot happen Sunday and yet the likelihood given this defense’s history against the Rams seems high that they will. How can the Seahawks mitigate the damage? That brings us to the other piece of the puzzle.

Yards after catch

Both of those explosive plays were obviously fuelled by the yards after the catch. Yet it isn’t simply a problem of singular big plays. It is a challenge the very middle of the defense is experiencing on a regular basis.

Julian Love (109 QBR/75% comp rate), Bobby Wagner (105/74%) and Jordyn Brooks (94/82%) comprise a little over a third of the defensive targets in the passing game this year for the Seahawks. Those numbers – particularly for the linebackers – look ugly — and they are. Yet often times they are guarding the dump-offs, where a completion is simple and so QB Rating and Completion % are rightly pretty high. So, keep that in mind.

However – and this is a big however – the yards after catch allowed are a problem for this trio. They have allowed 468 yards after the catch, accounting for 20% of the defense’s passing yardage conceded. The two linebackers have conceded 331 of those yards after catch.

How does the team solve this?

More consistent pressure on the quarterback is a great start. That can slow down every process and make things harder.

The other way to solve it is so simple it almost is ridiculous to mention.

Tackle guys. Get them to the ground. Tackling has again been a problem for the Seahawks this year. They have 60 missed tackles as a team per Pro Football Reference and the Love/Wagner/Brooks trio has 16 of those.

We have seen runners and receivers pinballing off of defenders who are not in good form to tackle. That is unacceptable. The Seahawks simply must not allow receivers the chance to make more football moves after receiving the ball.

The Rams do not have a deep running back group and this is Matt Stafford’s first game back after a thumb injury. They will likely try all kinds of short passes and clever edge runs of wide receivers to get the offense in gear and ease Stafford back into the game.

This is not some deep mystery. They have done it – and done it well – against Seattle for years.

If the Seahawks want to control this game flow, they must tackle well, cover tightly and be schemed to close these weaknesses and give the offense the ball back.

I’ve spent the last few days watching every LSU game from this season, focusing on quarterback Jayden Daniels.

I’ve regularly suggested there’s a lot of ‘one-read-and-run’ stuff with Daniels. That is true. He’s a very dynamic runner and teams struggle to contain him. If his primary target isn’t open, he will often get into backyard mode to make something happen.

However, having studied him closely now I think it’d be doing him a disservice not to talk more about the positives within his game.

Firstly — regulars to the blog will know I like to focus on how transferable an environment is. There are big-name quarterbacks in college who aren’t touched. They sit in clean pockets playing pitch-and-catch. It’s not that difficult for a talented quarterback to impress in that situation. It’s also tricky to project how they will handle the NFL when suddenly they are faced with constant pressure. There are mechanical habits that are suddenly exposed. Players who never had to throw layered passes and deliver throws with anticipation realise that’s the name of the game.

At LSU, there aren’t many layered passes. A lot of it is throwing on the run, throwing downfield when identifying 1v1 opportunities, throwing over the middle to open targets and the basic, high-percentage throws. However, Daniels does face pressure and he handles it well. There are multiple examples on tape of him buying time in the pocket, extending plays with nimble footwork, then re-setting to deliver a strike. You also see him throw just as he’s about to get hammered in the pocket — standing tall, delivering an accurate pass for a big play even when he knows a big hit is coming.

This is the kind of thing that travels to the next level. It’s not going to be completely foreign to him. LSU gives up 2.1 sacks a game — only the 72nd best record in college football. This is a far cry from Oregon (0.4 sacks per game) and Washington (0.7 sacks per game) to use the two most extreme examples.

Daniels doesn’t have a cannon but his arm strength is in the ‘good enough’ category. He throws with nice touch, looping downfield passes and hitting receivers in stride. His ball-placement can be very good on deeper throws and he has a high number of explosive plays. As we’ve noted a few times, he’s second only to Drake Maye (30) in ‘big time throws’ this season per PFF (Daniels has 26). His ‘big time throw percentage’ (the percentage number of throws that are explosive) leads college football at 9%.

This feels quite important because we know the Seahawks like creative quarterbacks who can hit big plays downfield. Daniels has shown he can do this. So while he’s not quite throwing layered passes in-between defenders consistently over the middle in a pro-style offense with different progressions — he can make big plays downfield with accuracy. For that reason, I’d say he fits.

As a runner he is a real threat. I think one of the reasons he’s so successful is because he can hit the edge so quickly. Daniels can go from standing in the pocket to accelerating to the perimeter in no time at all. From there, it’s almost effortless how he can change direction and get upfield. There’s almost no wasted movement from the moment he sets off, changes direction and he uses that just as well when dodging tackles. His agility and speed appear to be excellent.

I do think this will translate. Now — he’s not a big player. He’s listed at 6-4 and 210lbs and that’s after some serious weight-work last summer. He’ll need to learn when to quit on runs (he can do a better job sliding). Yet it’s very easy to imagine him being an absolute terror when an offense goes up-tempo. He’ll be able to scramble around in the pocket and the threat to break contain will be a major headache for a defense in every game. Daniels the runner isn’t a nice little wrinkle to his game — it’s a major factor. You want to get him moving around like the early Russell years. He’s good at sensing a crease and maxing out opportunities.

There are also clearly moments of genuine inspiration on the move. Improvisation and elusiveness has never been more important. There are plays where he’s really good at dropping, subtly moving around to stay clean and he extends plays with his footwork. On multiple occasions receivers would uncover and he’s adept at finding them in this situation. You need this in the NFL.

One area for concern is he needs to do a better job being quicker over the middle on intermediate passes. He also needs to drive those throws in. He doesn’t have the rocket-arm to fire into a receiver in tight coverage on shorter routes and he had a pick against Arkansas where the defender read his eyes and just undercut a fairly tame throw. He’ll need to disguise these plays better too because as noted, he’s not making a lot of progressions. He can use a bit of shorter-range venom to the arm too.

Statistically he’s having a huge year. He’s already up to 38 total touchdowns compared to four picks. As a comparison, Russell Wilson had 40 total touchdowns for Wisconsin in 2011 and four interceptions.

Increasingly I think this about Daniels. He’s a very creative player who can deliver big plays in the passing game, he’s elusive in the pocket and a constant threat to break off big runs. A defensive opponent will need to guard against him in so many different ways. Yes — he is going to need to learn to operate in a pro-system and he’ll need to continue to work on his strength to drive those intermediate passes into tight windows. Yet there’s no reason why he can’t develop into an asset over time.

He is not the prototypical big, strong, dynamic thrower but I do now think he could be a lesser version of Lamar Jackson. His arm isn’t quite as strong and he’s not quite as dynamic as a runner — but he’s not a mile away either.

Daniels had his worst performance of the season in week one against Florida State and hasn’t really looked back after that. How early could he go? That’s difficult to answer at this stage. If he turned up at the combine and ran a 4.4 before throwing well — all bets are off. A great Senior Bowl would really help him too and he could use that to separate from other players with a strong week in Mobile.

I’ve moved him into a round two grade with the feeling he could rise beyond that in time. There’s just too much creativity, too much athleticism, too many big throws downfield to ignore.

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