The reality check of the Ravens, Rams and 49ers games leaves little in the way of optimism for the rest of the season. Either the Seahawks are going to back-into the playoffs as a sixth or seventh seed (they’re only competing with Minnesota, Green Bay and perhaps the Rams, after all) or they’re going to miss out. It doesn’t feel particularly exciting to discuss this, especially given the likelihood of a swift wildcard exit based on what we’re seeing.
I want to talk about what happens at the end of the season and provide a possible outcome.
It’s starting to feel inevitable that Shane Waldron’s days are numbered in Seattle. On Friday, Pete Carroll bemoaned an inability to properly feature their different offensive weapons, at one point listing several names he feels could be used to greater effect. He even admitted there might be too many mouths to feed and openly discussed a lack of identity on offense.
He’s right to highlight these things because it’s all blatantly true. Yet as the Head Coach, he should’ve fixed it by now. It’s not good enough to be talking about identity issues 11 games into a season.
It’s even more frustrating when you consider Carroll is 13 years into his tenure in Seattle and has, seemingly, great clarity on what he wants his team to look like. The offensive coordinator is in year-three, not year-one. Plus we’ve just seen a San Francisco team make great use of their weapons at Seattle’s expense. They’re not having any headaches on how to best use Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. So why are the Seahawks?
It’ll be a huge faux pas if fans and media only focus on Waldron and Geno Smith. The buck stops with the Head Coach.
I’d argue we’ve not seen the Seahawks properly function as a closed circle unit since 2018. Back then, they had the #1 rushing offense in the NFL. It synched well with Russell Wilson at the peak of his powers. They also had Frank Clark and Jarran Reed rushing the passer — enabling the Seahawks to have the fourth best pressure percentage in the NFL. They beat really good teams in 2018 — the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The two games against the Rams finished 33-31 and 36-31. They were close and exciting.
That season should’ve been the platform to build and it wasn’t. They squandered it. Since then, they’ve had major issues with the pass rush, run defense, balance on offense, ‘Let Russ Cook’ and now the husk of an offense we are seeing week to week. In the five years since 2018, there’s always something glaring that needs to be fixed.
That’s on Carroll. Not the current coordinator. Not the current quarterback. Carroll.
Frankly, this off-season feels like the perfect time to try something new. Install an offensive Head Coach who can make the most of the weapons on the roster and draft a quarterback he can work with for the next era of Seahawks football.
Carroll isn’t going to coach forever and the Seahawks are not getting closer to a fairytale Championship send-off to end his career. They just aren’t. They’re a mile away, if recent performances are anything to go by.
The franchise can’t be paralysed by ownership not wanting to make any dramatic moves before a sale and if that’s the reason for inactivity, Jody Allen shouldn’t release statements like she did 18 months ago insisting neither the Seahawks or Blazers are for sale. She should look to sell as soon as possible — with the window opening next summer — to allow someone to take over who can make the big decisions.
That statement in July 2022 ended with, “my focus – and that of our teams – is on winning.” Prove it. One playoff win in six years (soon to be seven), a 15-14 record since the second reset, the first reset was propped up by Russell Wilson and as mentioned, there are consistently glaring issues with the team that seem to catch Carroll off guard. He then spends most of the season trying to answer why this is the case. This is winning on a ‘not the Cardinals’ level. This isn’t winning on a 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs level — the level required to be a serious contender.
They’ve won the NFC West twice in the last eight years. Before Russell Wilson, the Seahawks were 15-19. Since trading Wilson, they’re 15-14. That record could be about to get worse.
Carroll’s number of wins and overall success in Seattle shouldn’t be dismissed. Yet it often lacks context. How good are you, really, when your only playoff win in the last six years came against an opponent who lost its quarterback early on and had to field a 40-year-old fill-in backup? How much has actually been achieved since that fateful final game of the 2014 season? How much of their success since then was down to Wilson? Without a top quarterback leading the way, what are they currently?
Whenever you talk about a future without Carroll, you almost have to apologetically reference your gratitude. I hope, soon, we can just assume everyone has that gratitude. There’s no agenda here other than a desire to once again reach the pinnacle. What is most likely to get the Seahawks to the top? The Eagles fired Doug Pederson three seasons after he won a Super Bowl. Two years later, they were back in the Super Bowl. The Eagles seem committed to winning. These days, it feels increasingly like the Seahawks are committed to being able to beat bad teams.
In September I wrote a critical article after the week one defeat to the Rams, discussing five relevant criticisms of Carroll’s Seahawks.
The first point discussed the way the defense hasn’t been good enough for a long time. The defense feels like less of an issue than the offense currently. However, consider what has been spent on the unit and then reflect on whether the 21st best unit per DVOA is a fitting result for this level of resource:
— Three second rounds picks on pass rushers (Taylor, Mafe, Hall)
— Big free agent splash (Jones)
— Trading a second rounder in 2024 (Williams)
— First round pick at linebacker (Brooks)
— Veteran free agent additions (Reed, Wagner)
— Top-five pick at cornerback (Witherspoon)
— Big salaries (Diggs, Adams, Nwosu, Jones)
— Huge trade (Adams)
With this level of spend, they should at least be above average. Per DVOA, something Carroll frequently references, they aren’t. Further to this, key target areas for improvement (eg, run defense) showed signs of positivity early in the season. Since then, the Seahawks have dropped to 21st in the NFL in rush yards conceded per game (117). With an upcoming schedule like they have, this could get even worse.
As Mookie Alexander at Field Gulls notes:
How much longer do we have to wait for this unit to actually be demonstrably good? Not “good against the absolute worst offenses” or “good for about five weeks and then below-average the other 12 weeks.” If this is going to persist for as long as Pete Carroll is in charge, then the only way the Seahawks can be elite again under his watch is if they have a quarterback and consequently an entire offense that can consistently overcome less than stellar defensive play.
Point #2 discussed whether the game has changed, noting that the last five Super Bowls have featured offensive-minded Head Coaches:
Chiefs vs Eagles — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Rams vs Bengals — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Buccaneers vs Chiefs — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Chiefs vs 49ers — two offensive-minded Head Coaches
Patriots vs Rams — one defensive-minded, one offensive-minded coach
That’s nine offensive-minded Head Coaches and Bill Belichick.
Nothing about the last few weeks makes this feel any less pertinent. Plus, look at the teams with the best records in the NFL currently:
Miami — Mike McDaniel
Chiefs — Andy Reid
Jaguars — Doug Pederson
Eagles — Nick Sirianni
49ers — Kyle Shanahan
Baltimore are led by John Harbaugh who appears to act as a figurehead. The Lions have Dan Campbell who cedes to Ben Johnson on offense, arguably the top Head Coaching candidate for the next cycle. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell is doing a fine job with the Vikings, Matt LaFleur is turning things around for the Packers, Sean Payton is leading Denver on a five-game winning streak and the Browns have Kevin Stefanski.
There isn’t a single team currently among the NFL’s elite with a defensive-minded Head Coach.
Point #3 relates to Seattle’s poor playoff record — one win in six (soon to be seven, if we’re honest). Point #4 was simply titled, ‘They can’t recapture their chosen identity’. No extra comment needed there. Point #5, which is less relevant, was their form at home. They’re currently 4-2 at Lumen Field. They’ve defeated the Panthers, Cardinals, Browns and Commanders, losing to the Rams and 49ers.
It should be a major criticism of Carroll that the team has no identity. How can that be possible when he’s been in the job for this long, having spent the resources he has to shape the roster? They’ve spent a treasure-trove of draft picks, all of the cap money this year and next, they’ve made big splashes in free agency and they’ve traded away their second rounder next year. All that investment, all that resource, and they can’t even deliver a clear identity?
Carroll’s future should be discussed. Before anyone frets about moving on and being careful what you wish for — a quick reminder that similar things were said about moving on from Mike Holmgren. Five years after his departure, Seattle won a Super Bowl. Plus, very few people had heard about Nick Sirriani or Mike McDaniel before they were appointed. Sirianni was Frank Reich’s offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. That’s Frank Reich who has just been fired mid-season for the second year in a row. Sirianni is 24-4 in 2022/23 and nearly won a Championship. You don’t always need to go out and hire an obvious name with credentials galore. Sirianni attacks opponents and makes the most of his weapons. His culture and identity is to be aggressive. Those coaches are out there.
Sure, it helps that he has talent on the roster. Nobody earmarked Jalen Hurts to be a Super Bowl quarterback when Sirianni took over in 2021, though. Neither did anyone think much of Tua Tagovailoa before McDaniel arrived in Miami. Now, the Dolphins have the most explosive offense in the league. Why? Because they make the most of their weapons, they’re tactically creative and aggressive.
I read this piece from Brian Nemhauser on the plane home from Seattle today and I think Brian makes a very important point about the talent discrepancy between the Seahawks and 49ers. I do think, however, that the pathway to the Seahawks being more competitive and a contender isn’t quite as bleak.
The example of the Dolphins is a good one. I’m not sure I fancy Miami to win a Super Bowl but I also wouldn’t completely rule it out. They’re in contention for the #1 seed in a difficult AFC, they’ll be a tough out for any opponent and they’re fun to watch. That doesn’t seem out of reach for the Seahawks with the right plan. I’d also expect the Dolphins to give the 49ers a better game than Seattle did last week.
Trent Williams turns 36 next year, George Kittle 31 and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner will turn 28. Williams, Kittle and Samuel have recently experienced injuries. Further to this, Brock Purdy is 18 months away from needing to be paid. So while it’s fair to expect the 49ers to be the dominant force in the NFC West for another couple of years, I’m not sure this is necessarily a long-term problem. Many of their players are well into their careers.
Look at other teams in the league. The Bengals have a horrible offensive line and have done for years. Their defense is good not great. They made a Super Bowl because Joe Burrow is excellent, he has weapons and they know how to use them. I’d argue the Bills, struggling as they might be currently, have been a contender in recent seasons because of Josh Allen and an organised defense rather than a Niners-level of talent. There’s also the Chiefs — who rely a lot on Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones but otherwise have a so-so roster.
The Seahawks do not necessarily need to mimic the 49ers by going on an epic personnel run. They just need to be a lot better than they currently are.
Some may disagree but I think this is achievable by doing three things:
1. Having someone run the offense who can attack opponents, exploit weaknesses and make the most of the weapons available
2. Drafting a quarterback
3. Transferring resource from positions such as linebacker/safety to the trenches
I think people can easily be defeatist about point number two. I read/hear a lot about how difficult it is to find a great quarterback. That’s true — but it doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The aim also doesn’t have to be to find the next Mahomes, as teams like the Eagles and Dolphins are showing. The Ravens, lest we forget, drafted their MVP candidate with the #32 pick.
I’ll go back to the Hurts example. He’s not a traditional ‘franchise quarterback’ destined to dominate the league for two decades. He works for the Eagles, though, and they get the most out of him. Creating a plan for your quarterback and his supporting cast can lead to results. How else do you explain the Vikings winning with Joshua Dobbs, catapulted into the line-up mid-season?
This week I’ll publish my horizontal board for the first time and there are lots of quarterbacks listed. It’s a deep year. You might not find the next Hall-of-Famer within the class but I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility you can find a very good starter who you can build an offense around. I’ll talk more about drafting a quarterback in a moment.
Point number three is something I’ve banged on about for a long time. Having $50m of cap space tied up in Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams next year is preposterous. The thought of retaining that and then paying Jordyn Brooks — and potentially retaining Bobby Wagner — just doesn’t make sense while questions remain on both sides of the ball up front, in the trenches. The aim for the Seahawks moving forward should be to be physical and excellent on the O-line and D-line. Simple as that.
Back to the first point on a new offensive leader. It’ll either come down to the franchise making a significant change at the top, which is very much in the ‘has to be seen to be believed’ category — although as mentioned earlier, it shouldn’t be out of the question as much as people think. If Jody Allen is running the franchise rather than acting as a placeholder as she claims, that requires big calls to be made — regardless of a future sale. If Carroll isn’t to depart, then they could/should still make a significant offensive coordinator hire. Let’s look at both scenarios.
For a while now I’ve thought if/when Carroll goes, Dan Quinn might be his replacement. Rightly or wrongly, there’d be some crossover. Part of me wonders if Allen was ever to turn to Carroll, shake his hand and call time, Carroll’s view on his replacement might be given a little too much credence over a more thorough search.
Carroll speaks so highly of Quinn. Although it would be another defensive minded Head Coach, he knows the benefit of pairing himself with a top coordinator (Kyle Shanahan), he has been to a Super Bowl as a leader and he feels somewhat willing to adapt and shift with the times — staying on top of tactical trends.
He could create a version of the Texans — where DeMeco Ryans is ably supported by Bobby Slowik, overseeing a young quarterback in C.J. Stroud. I’m still dubious though. As Mike Florio frequently highlights — if you have success as an offense, you’ll lose your coordinator. Losing Shanahan was the death knell for Quinn’s time in Atlanta. As noted above, the league is currently being led by teams with offensive identities.
Slowik himself might be worth considering, especially if you’re drafting a quarterback. He’s done a remarkable job with Stroud and is from the Shanahan tree. Other candidates could include Lions OC Ben Johnson, Dolphins OC Frank Smith and Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy. I particularly appreciate Bieniemy, given he walked away from the cushiest job in the NFL (being Mahomes’ coordinator and Andy Reid’s right-hand-man) to take on the same role with the hapless Commanders, working with a fifth round pick and first year starter at quarterback. He’s developed his reputation, with Sam Howell enjoying some success and the Chiefs taking a step backwards offensively without him. You have to respect the risk-factor involved here for Bieniemy.
If Carroll remains, then appointing a new coordinator would be a critical hire. He’s gone through Jeremy Bates, Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer and now, seemingly, Shane Waldron. Usually when you go through offensive coordinators like this, it’s because they get Head Coaching jobs. Instead, all will be fired (assuming Waldron is). That’s an especially poor record and speaks to part of the problem.
A replacement would need to be someone with a track record. It’s possible they could dangle the carrot of being the potential successor to Carroll (without putting it in writing, that won’t work) if things work out. I think this is fairly unlikely but it’s an option. There are other ways to make this an appealing job.
Firstly, Carroll can offer control. I actually think he’s done this with Waldron. There’s no way a Carroll-inspired offense would be running the ball this infrequently. Yet we’re also not seeing anything remotely close to the Shanahan/McVay offense under Waldron — which you would assume he would run given his background. Instead the offense has issues we’d seen before Waldron came to Seattle — making you wonder if Carroll is interfering too much. It’s so confusing.
The weapons on offer should be appealing. Any new coordinator will inherit a loaded roster full of talent. Furthermore, they can surely only get better. Fixing this unit could be seen as an intriguing challenge with a relatively straight forward route to rapid improvement and therefore reputation enhancement.
Thirdly, drafting a quarterback. Offering a new coordinator a chance to develop a young QB will have some appeal to certain candidates. Look how Slowik’s reputation has completely enhanced thanks to his work with Stroud in Houston. It’s also somewhat comforting for any new coordinator coming in that Seattle’s off-season priority is likely to be offense-centric.
We might see some big name coordinators on the market. It’s likely Brandon Staley and Ron Rivera will be fired, potentially making Kellen Moore and Bieniemy available (if they aren’t offered Head Coaching roles, which so far hasn’t happened over multiple cycles).
They could offer Ken Dorsey an opportunity to relaunch his career after being made a scapegoat in Buffalo. They might go and look at supposed ‘up-and-comers’ (although that might be too similar to Waldron) and target someone like Joe Bleymaier (Kansas City’s passing-game coordinator), Marcus Brady (senior offensive assistant for the Eagles), Tanner Engstrand (passing-game coordinator for the Lions), Brian Fleury (tight ends coach in San Francisco), Zac Robinson (Rams QB coach) or Duce Staley (Panthers assistant head coach). I’m sure there are others — these are just some names being projected to eventually gain promotions.
I suppose it’s also possible if Todd Bowles loses his job in Tampa Bay that Dave Canales could be available after a decent year in Tampa Bay. We know Carroll likes to appoint ‘his guys’.
A new offensive coordinator feels inevitable. What about drafting a quarterback though?
As I said after the game on Thursday, Geno Smith isn’t ‘the problem’ for the Seahawks. He just isn’t the solution either. They’re not going to take a big leap with Smith under center or reach the destination they crave. They need to draft someone.
This thought has been bouncing around in my mind for a few weeks and I’m going to chuck it out there today as part of this article. Could they make an ultra-aggressive move up the board, trading up for a quarterback?
Colin Cowherd and John Middlekauf talked about it yesterday. It might start to gain some traction. The Seahawks have pretty much added players at every other position on the roster over the last two off-seasons. Even though the 2023 season is falling apart, on paper they don’t have a lot of ‘glaring’ holes. They’re going to need to create cap space to keep or replace a long list of free agents, as discussed in detail here. But they might be prepared to do that.
It’s harder to move up after trading away your second rounder for Leonard Williams. That said, first round picks are the currency used to make bold trades. Would they be prepared to trade three of them away, just like San Francisco did, to get into range?
It’d be aggressive and risky but perhaps they have that much faith in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye? Many do.
This would be a way to generate excitement again. The franchise is flat at the moment. Sections of the fan base are wondering — quite rightly — what direction the team is heading. A lot of people anticipated growing pains and development. What they’ve seen is the complete collapse of an offense loaded with weapons and a team getting blown-out by good opponents.
They don’t have a cluster of high picks again like the last two years to focus minds and create a buzz. They actually have fewer picks than normal because of the Williams trade. If they keep struggling this year, more and more people are going to ask questions about the future.
Firing Waldron, making a new offensive coordinator hire, then trading up in the draft in order to try and find the Holy Grail at QB is a plan of sorts, whether you personally agree with it or not. When you write the words down, it’s very easy to imagine how this could get people on board again. It could make the 2024 season interesting, rather than feeling like more of the same.
They could bill it as ‘the final piece’ to add to this rebuild when you bring in the new QB. I’m just not convinced there’s any reason at this point to believe Carroll can lead a team back to serious contention. Maybe with an elite QB he could. Yet when you’re unable to even create a functioning identity for your team after two A+ drafts and a massive resource spend, how can you be confident he’d get it right?
Personally, I’m not sure they need to be this aggressive. I think good quarterbacks will be available to Seattle without moving up. It’s a deep group so whether it’s Spencer Rattler, Jayden Daniels, Quinn Ewers or whoever — they don’t necessarily have to move up. It comes down to grading and whether they want to be aggressive for a player with a top-five range versus settling for someone available later. Let’s not forget that Mahomes was the 10th pick, Jackson the 31st etc.
What do I think will happen? I think the Seahawks will fire Waldron, try to make a key offensive coordinator hire to fix the offense and they will then either trade up aggressively for a quarterback or they will simply draft one early. That’s my guess for the off-season as of the 27th November. I think a fresh start — appointing a new Head Coach to go with a new QB — would give you a better chance to right the ship. I’m just not sure Allen will do it.
Thoughts?
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