
Will Levis could easily be the top pick in 2023
You’re going to hear a lot of things about the 2023 quarterback class.
For example, take this pair of tweets:
I went with the under 6.5 QBs in the first round of the 2023 class but @MelKiperESPN and I agree it’s shaping up to be a great QB class next year! https://t.co/y5D6wUVvhP
— Todd McShay (@McShay13) May 2, 2022
Already, Mel Kiper is predicting we might see seven quarterbacks drafted in the first round. McShay goes with the more conservative ‘under’ on the 6.5 projection.
If you look around the internet you’ll see all kinds of weird and wonderful predictions. The hype is out of control already. So much so that pretty much any quarterback who played well in college last season is being touted as a potential first rounder.
For example, I read a list recently that had Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Jaren Hall projected as viable options for the ‘early first round’ as the third, fourth and fifth best prospects at the position.
It was a perfect example that silly season is here eight months earlier than usual.
None of those three players, at this point, deserve to be discussed as first round prospects. It doesn’t mean they can’t work their way into that conversation with their play in 2022. Players always emerge, develop and promote their stock. After all, Joe Burrow was seen as a late day three pick before his final season at LSU. Zach Wilson emerged from nowhere to be the #2 pick in 2021. Nobody was talking about Kenny Pickett as a first rounder 12 months ago either.
Yet we also need to be realistic about these players. For that reason, after a week studying the names below, I wanted to share some notes.
Even among the consensus ‘best two’ (Bryce Young & C.J. Stroud) I think there’s a lot of misinformation and hype out there.
As of today, I think there are four quarterbacks you can say with some degree of confidence deserve to be talked about as a potential day one pick…
1. Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
For me it’s pretty clear that Levis is the early contender to be the first quarterback drafted. He has everything the modern franchise quarterback needs. He is big, athletic and has a strong arm. He’s 6-3, 232lbs, ran a 4.10 short shuttle at SPARQ and jumped a 36 inch vertical. His overall score was a 123.27 — which is seriously impressive for a quarterback who was already 224lbs in High School. He can throw to all levels of the field with touch and velocity. His throwing base is impressive and keeps him accurate. He shares similarities to Josh Allen as both a passer and as a physical, creative runner. He has elevated Kentucky to a new level and he doesn’t benefit from an amazing supporting cast. He has a ‘wow’ factor that the other quarterbacks simply don’t have. He’s also best prepared to enter the league having spent a year with Liam Coen — a hand-picked Sean McVay protégé who has now returned to the Rams to be McVay’s offensive coordinator. Coen has been replaced by Kyle Shanahan’s QB coach Rich Scangarello. So he’s operating in a translatable offense to the pro’s, competing in the SEC for a non-powerhouse (and succeeding). He’s adept at play-action and he’s worked with pro-concepts. If he can continue to excel at Kentucky and reduce his number of turnovers in 2022, for me he should be universally seen as the front-runner to challenge Alabama’s incredible pass rusher Will Anderson to be the #1 pick in 2023.
2. Tyler Van Dyke (QB, Miami)
I think there’s every chance Van Dyke can elevate himself into the QB2 position with a strong 2022 season. I’ll start with the concern I voiced a few days ago — Mario Cristobal. His horrible offensive vision stymied Justin Herbert and made him a harder evaluation than necessary. There’s already talk from Miami’s Spring camp that TVD is throwing a lot of the underneath stuff Herbert was lumbered with. The endless check-downs, screens and short-slants will not suit Van Dyke. He has a rocket arm and is at his best attacking opponents — just as he did when he expertly out-gunned Kenny Pickett and Pittsburgh on the road. He took over from D’Eriq King with Miami looking a bit of a shambles and transformed their season with a 5-1 run. According to PFF he was the only quarterback in the FBS to finish in the top-10 for passing yards, touchdowns, big-time throws and big-time throw rate in the second half of the season. He stands tall in the pocket and his base is impressive for a young QB. He plants his feet nicely, steps into his throws and it helps him stay accurate. His passes carry strong velocity. The ball flicks out of his hand on release — the throwing finger spinning it out with a little extra juice to launch downfield. He does tend to drop his shoulder down and his release is a little more elongated than ideal. It’s not a deal-breaker but it’s something to note. He throws into the right areas of the field, leading his receivers and playing with anticipation. He’s not the most mobile quarterback (5.00 forty at SPARQ) but he can scramble away to make a first down from time to time. He’s not overly elusive or creative as a runner and it’s something he says he’s been working on. If the offensive scheme doesn’t hold him back, TVD could easily be QB2 and a top-10 pick next year.
3. Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
The first thing we have to note with Young is his size. I am very sceptical of his listed 6-0, 194lbs frame. I suspect he’s shorter and lighter than that. There aren’t many players drafted early with that size. Kyler Murray has a stocky frame and let’s be fair here, is a thoroughly unique player with an outstanding skill set. Young’s size won’t necessarily prevent him going very early but it’s something to keep in mind. On the field he is a master processor who appears to do a great job in his mental preparation because he’s adept at understanding what a defense is giving, identifying his keys and delivering an accurate football to the right place on time. He has the arm strength to throw downfield and into tight windows. He can scramble, improvise and create. At Alabama he hasn’t been challenged too often and when teams have brought consistent pressure (eg Georgia) his footwork and mechanics have suffered. It’s fair to wonder how he will translate from playing for Alabama to potentially one of the worst teams in the NFL. I would suggest at this point he has first round potential — rather than declaring he’s a nailed-on top-five pick like many websites and analysts.
4. C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
Stroud is a complex and nuanced evaluation for different reasons. The Buckeyes offense is mass-production and has been for a long time — and hasn’t translated to pro-success for a string of quarterbacks. He has been throwing to the #10 pick in the 2022 draft (Garrett Wilson), the #11 pick (Chris Olave) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba — who I think is better than Wilson and Olave. Let’s just acknowledge that’s an advantage many college players don’t have. He lit up the Rose Bowl and gained rave reviews but when you break down the tape, Utah’s depleted secondary couldn’t cover and had no answers. It was painful to watch. There were so many wide open, huge plays. It was easy for Stroud and it’s hard to watch that game and really take much from it. Technically his footwork and base need work to produce more consistent results. He needs to learn not to throw off his toes as much, with his shoulders and legs in the correct position, without as many hitches before throwing and he needs to cut out the bad errors. Given Ohio State never fixed Justin Fields’ technical flaws, I fear for Stroud. He has size, ample arm strength and I’d say the good with Stroud is very, very good and the bad can equally be horrible. An interception against Minnesota thrown needlessly high and wide under no pressure. A pick against Tulsa where he had as much time in the pocket as you’ll ever see on a given play only to launch a terrible pass into double coverage. He threw right to a defender against Nebraska when Smith-Njigba had fallen over, despite having masses of free space in front of him to run for a first down and get out of bounds. The decision making even from a clean pocket when the obvious decisions are in front of him is a concern. Remember — both Fields and Dwayne Haskins were once considered very high picks from this offense and both lasted into the mid-first round rather than the top-five. I think that is a likely outcome for Stroud based on what I’ve seen so far.
Here are some brief thoughts on other players touted as potential first round picks but they either don’t warrant that projection or they will need to elevate their grade during the 2022 season…
Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
His 2021 season was a disaster, he was rightly benched and he has an enormous challenge to repair his stock. Rattler’s problem is he needs to learn how to play quarterback. Sounds important, right? At Oklahoma he played with arrogance — trusting his arm way too much to continuously make ill-advised throws into double or sometimes even triple coverage, believing he could just ‘fit it in there’. There were no signs of mental processing, working a defense, taking what was given. He doesn’t throw with anticipation. He does have physical tools. He’s not a particularly quick or dynamic scrambler but he does have the ability to make off-script highlight plays. He can throw off-platform and on the move. He does have good arm strength. He needs to learn how to play in structure and make an offense function, rather than just try to play hero-ball. There’s no way I could consider him a first round prospect at this stage. He has a point to prove but he’s now playing in the unforgiving SEC.
Jake Haener (QB, Fresno State)
We need to be realistic about what these players are. Haener is an accomplished college passer and the system at Fresno State suits his skill-set. He can play within structure and he shows a tremendous amount of grit — bouncing back from big hits and playing through the pain barrier. He is what he is though — a 6-1, 195lbs passer who will be in his mid-20’s as a rookie and lacks the physical tools to warrant anything like a first round grade. He doesn’t ‘wow’ you in any way. His arm is decent but not great. His accuracy is inconsistent at times and there are some concerning misses on tape. He doesn’t handle pressure that well and he gets antsy in the pocket too often — bailing on plays too early or setting off when he just needs to sit and wait. College football produces players like this all the time and how many go in the first round? Seeing people project him in that range is a major head-scratcher for me. I just don’t get it. And that’s nothing against him. I’ll watch a Fresno State game and enjoy it, mainly because he’s a fun, competitive player. But there’s a difference between that and being a high draft pick for the NFL.
Phil Jurkovec (QB, Boston College)
I’m not sure how anyone can project Jurkovec based on the tiny sample size we have available. After transferring from Notre Dame because he couldn’t usurp Ian Book, he’s had one Covid-impacted season at Boston College and a second season where he only played six games due to injury issues. In two of those six games he went 3/11 for 19 yards and two interceptions in a defeat to Wake Forest and he was 3/4 for 22 yards against UMass before leaving with a bad wrist. He lost to Florida State while completing 41.7% of his passes and his best statistical performance came in a 51-0 win against Colgate where he threw three touchdowns. You can’t look at that, or the tape, and have any serious idea of him being a first round pick. He has quite a hunched, over-the-top throwing motion and his frame is akin to watching a Minecraft character — he’s quite stocky and square. He’s very capable of throwing downfield if given time but there are also examples of passes where he’s just off with his accuracy ever so slightly — throwing to the wrong side of a receiver, giving them too much to do, leading them into trouble. I need to see more to make a proper assessment but if we’re being honest, he shouldn’t even be mentioned as a viable first round pick at this point. He needs to play a full season and stay healthy.
Jaren Hall (QB, BYU)
One trap people fall into is seeing a school where a player emerged from nowhere to go #2 overall (Zach Wilson), then the next time they have a reasonable quarterback starting, you lurch towards making a comparison or thinking lightning will strike twice. Hall is not Wilson. There’s a reason Wilson went #2 overall. There’s a reason Hall won’t. He is a good athlete and an effective runner. But at this stage he’s a runner and thrower more than a passer, if that makes sense. That doesn’t mean he couldn’t take a leap forward in 2022 and I certainly wouldn’t rule that out. Right now I see him as a very effective college quarterback who can make enough throws in the passing game to complement his running ability and athleticism. Does he look like someone destined to be an early draft pick? Not for me.
Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
He’s thrown 66 passes in college football. Let’s see him actually, you know, play football before determining whether he’s a high pick.
Grayson McCall (QB, Coastal Carolina)
Every now and again a McCall type comes along and makes life fun. A smaller-school over-achiever who will certainly find a home in the NFL. Frankly, it won’t be a surprise if he sticks around either. He has something about him. McCall is reasonably sized, he’s not physically limited, he plays with a lot of grit and he has elevated his team to a new level. These are all things that will impress NFL scouts. Yet his offense is very much designed to attack the intermediate level, his deep-ball accuracy isn’t what it needs to be and he operates in a funky option-offense that isn’t particularly transferable. There are some misses on tape that are concerning — just basic stuff where he throws wide or high. I would be surprised if he generates early-round consideration and see him more as a player who comes into the NFL much in the way Gardner Minshew did and finds a way to stick around. I’m not comparing him to Minshew either — it’s just to me he has the feel of a mid-to-late round project quarterback who has enough about him to stick around, without ever truly convincing anyone he’s a legit NFL starter. That would be my early projection.
Devin Leary (QB, NC State)
He had a breakout 2021 season delivering 35 touchdowns and just five interceptions, leading his Head Coach to declare he’s the best quarterback in college football. I wouldn’t go that far. He has average arm strength and there’s just a distinct lack of ‘wow’ factor with Leary. He’s only 6-1 and 212lbs and he doesn’t have the physical traits to covet as an early rounder. Let’s see how he does this year but right now it’s hard to get too excited about his NFL stock, or imagine him working his way into the first round discussion.
There are also two players I like who will probably not be first round picks but warrant some attention going into the new college season…
Dorian Thompson-Robinson (QB, UCLA)
I secretly hoped he might declare for the draft this year and provide the Seahawks with a potential mid or later round option. At 6-1 and 205lbs he lacks the elite physical tools to really promote himself into the top range of quarterbacks but DTR is creative, athletic and he just makes things happen. There are some errors on tape and although he only had six interceptions in 2021, most were avoidable. Yet he added 30 total touchdowns and has been driving UCLA forwards. He was impressive in big wins against LCU, USC and California. He ran Oregon close and performed well in a shoot-out against Fresno State. For me he’s better than a lot of the quarterbacks listed above and if he can carry UCLA to another level in 2022 — don’t be surprised if he ends up being one of the late risers in this class.
Tanner McKee (QB, Stanford)
He had a two-year mission before joining-up with Stanford so he’s an older player from the same recruiting class as Will Levis. He’s 6-6 and 228lbs and plays like you’d expect at that size. He’s not a mobile, elusive or scrambling quarterback. He’s at his best standing tall in the pocket and delivering the ball. He can throw fade-passes with touch, he can get the ball downfield with velocity and he’s generally accurate. I would say he’s a level below Davis Mills but still retains enough talent to change that this year. The worst case scenario is he’s naturally gifted enough as a passer for someone to take a chance on him in the middle rounds. This is a big opportunity in a wide-open PAC-12. Can he make a name for himself and pump up his stock?
Right now I see four viable first round quarterbacks for the 2023 class — Levis, Van Dyke, Young and Stroud. As proven with Burrow, Wilson and Pickett — players can and will emerge. That could happen again this year.
I think this is a more accurate portrayal of what this class is though — rather than some of the hype out there at the moment with people discussing more than 6-7 players in the first frame while assuming Young and Stroud are going to be the top two players. You have a lot of positional depth — the numbers are certainly up — but there’s a smaller pool of ‘top’ players than people are suggesting.
It’s also worth remembering just how good Alabama’s Will Anderson is. We’re talking about a player who had 17.5 sacks and 33.5 TFL’s in 2021 alone. It’s unquestionably true that he is the best player eligible for the draft in 2023. It’s not all about the quarterbacks at the top of round one.
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