I have a slight concern about Geno Smith this season.

I’m not worried about him playing badly. I think he’s shown he’s a talented player who deserves to lead the offense. He also has a fantastic set of weapons to throw to, a running game loaded with talent and he’ll play behind an offensive line rich in upside.

The chances are he’ll thrive and this will all be a moot point.

My concern isn’t that Smith will perform poorly in 2023. What troubles me, only slightly I might add, is the consequence of a season where he’s only ‘decent’. Average, or just above average.

Per the terms of his contract, Smith has a $31.2m cap hit in 2024.

He’ll also get an extra $2m every time he ticks off the following incentives:

Passing Yards — 4,282
Passing Touchdowns — 30
Completion percentage — 69.8%
Passer Rating — 100.9
Wins — 9

It means he can earn as much as $41.2m in 2024 based on how he performs this year.

If Smith plays very well and collects all of those incentives in the process, fantastic. There will be no discussion, no questions, it’ll be business as usual.

Equally if he struggles, it won’t be too hard to move on. There’s a strong ‘out’ in the deal where the Seahawks can save $22.5m if they need to move on.

It’ll be a dilemma, however, if Smith is somewhere in-between the two outcomes.

What if he’s only OK?

The incentives above are very achievable even if Smith doesn’t play that brilliantly. Nine wins? Even the 2010 Seahawks won seven games. Smith’s thirty passing touchdowns were fourth most in the NFL last season but that same tally would’ve ranked only 10th in 2021 and 11th in 2020. It’s not a daunting task in the modern game.

It won’t take much for $31.2m to become $35.2m.

On top of that, as noted a few days ago, Smith had great fortune last year with turnovers. Only 48% of his turnover-worthy plays actually resulted in an interception when a typical average is approximately 81%. He would’ve had 25 interceptions last year if his numbers aligned to the league average. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% conversion rate he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

If, in 2023, he simply experiences a more typical turnover-conversion rate — it’s perfectly reasonable to think he could match his statistics from last season in terms of touchdowns, wins, passing yards and maybe even completion percentage to hit some of his accelerators — while also having a much higher number of turnovers.

That’s when $35-40m starts to look quite expensive.

This is why things could become tricky. You could end up in a situation where in back-to-back years Smith actually produces some attractive numbers. Yet if he has more typical luck when it comes to turnovers, it becomes a bigger question mark over his suitability as a player who can lead this team to where it ultimately wants to get to.

Adding to the dilemma is Seattle’s cap situation in 2024. Currently, according to Over the Cap, they only have $975,664 in effective cap space for next year after pushing some of Jamal Adams’ salary into 2024.

They can easily create $5.9m by cutting Bryan Mone (an inevitability) but there aren’t many other levers to pull. Cutting Quandre Diggs would save $11m but comes with a $10m dead cap hit after re-working his deal. Cutting Adams would only save $6m and comes with a $21m dead cap hit now. They can save $4m by parting with Will Dissly — not a massive amount. Cutting Nick Bellore saves $1.7m. That’s pretty much it.

Two of these cuts can be post-June 1st to shift some of the dead money into 2025 — yet it’s worth noting that Seattle has the fourth lowest amount of projected available cap for 2025. Things are tight now and in the near future.

Essentially at the moment they have no capacity to do anything in free agency next year, they can’t afford a 2024 draft class, they have no money to extend free agents like Bobby Wagner, Drew Lock, Noah Fant, Damien Lewis, Jordyn Brooks, Phil Haynes, Colby Parkinson and several others.

They are not in a good position with the cap. They’ll need to create money. Difficult decisions are going to need to be made.

This is why a $40m quarterback needs to actually be worth $40m, even if that’s the perceived market value for the position these days. Every dollar and cent is precious to the Seahawks at the moment.

This is why clarity for 2024 would be ideal.

The absolutely best case scenario is a glorious season for Smith, confirming his place as a top-passer. The Seahawks have given him every opportunity to make that happen. He will lead a loaded offense — easily one of the most talent-rich in the league. He has an assortment of fantastic weapons to throw to, talented running backs ready to provide a productive ground-game and a young O-line with upside for days.

Few quarterbacks in the league have a supporting cast like this. An outstanding job has been done to create such a potent looking arsenal.

If Smith excels in a big way, he’ll simply be viewed as an essential keep and they’ll need to find money in other ways.

If that doesn’t happen though, this team isn’t in a position to pay $31-41m for ‘so-so’ at any position.

I’m sure people will suggest they could negotiate with Smith to lower his cap hit or re-work his deal. That’s possible. I’m not sure how likely it is though, given how hesitant they’ve been to arrange a pay-cut with Jamal Adams. Until yesterday he was the highest paid player on the team in 2023 despite the fact he’s barely played in two years and it’s unclear when he’ll return or how he’ll perform when he’s back on the field.

Assuming a negotiation with Smith is viable might be optimistic, although it is certainly plausible.

Maybe they’ve accounted for that already? A possible willingness to be flexible? I actually think Smith might be receptive. Yet this is a team, per Curtis Allen in the tweet below, that has arguably not managed its cap very well in recent years:

PSA: The #seahawks now have $57million cap dollars invested in the safety position for 2024. $58million if you include Coby Bryant. 22.8% of their total cap. Just saying.

— Curtis Allen (@curtis93969) September 7, 2023

$57-58m on the safety position is obscene when you have a thin looking defensive line yet this is how they’ve managed their defensive spend. It’s hard to feel that optimistic about how they’ll handle the coming financial challenges.

I’m not bringing this up to be negative right before the start of the season. I think the Seahawks will win well on Sunday against the Rams and I think there’s a lot to be excited about in Seattle.

I also think Smith’s contract is something worth raising before the season begins. We could really do with knowing by the end of the year whether Smith is fully deserving of a $40m deal or whether the team has to move on, save money and look for a cheaper alternative.

A season where Smith is only average instead of good or bad could create a headache-inducing dilemma not easily solved by a couple of Paracetemol.

We discussed this topic (and many other topics) on our Seahawks season preview stream yesterday. Check it out below:

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I’m going to cover a lot in this article. Later on I’ll explain why I’m scouting quarterbacks, who I’d say are the leading candidates to be on Seattle’s radar, I’ll publish some notes on Duke quarterback Riley Leonard but first my thoughts on Jayden Daniels and Jordan Travis from the LSU vs Florida State game.

Jayden Daniels had a rough performance

Daniels finished last season on a real hot streak, to the extent many people saw him as a genuine Heisman candidate this year and a trendy draft option.

I wasn’t overly convinced when I did my initial study on Daniels over the summer. He certainly has some attractive qualities and he’ll get a chance in the NFL. I’m not convinced he’ll be a high draft pick though and this game emphasised why.

There’s nothing that special about his game. He doesn’t throw many passes over the middle and the LSU offense is filled with a lot of high percentage throws to the outside. I don’t think he handles pressure well, he’s not the most elusive or creative player and his athleticism works best off a quarterback draw (a play not featured in the NFL that often for obvious reasons). Watching this game also highlighted how ‘one-read’ he is — he will linger on his initial target and then move.

I think his decision making at times can also be concerning.

Daniels didn’t start well, overthrowing an easy checkdown with 4:20 left in the first quarter. Minutes later, he faked a hand-off to the running back and seems to make one read, take a false step in the pocket and then set off. Daniels doesn’t really seem to know what to do, so he runs straight up the middle and jumps (for some unknown reason) into the pile. He’s absolutely levelled in the chest by a defender in mid-air. It was WWE-esque. All he needed was a broadcasting table to soften the landing. He’s lucky he wasn’t seriously hurt.

I’ve no idea what LSU were thinking on the sideline after this. They had the offense rush to get the next play out before the end of the quarter. Daniels, moments after being hammered, throws into double coverage in the end-zone and was fortunate it was such an inaccurate throw and sailed out of bounds, otherwise he would’ve been in trouble.

When he gets into open space he can be very creative and make big gains as a runner but as mentioned, this seems to work best when he runs a draw. Travis was a lot quicker and more elusive, buying time and keeping his eyes downfield. Daniels seems significantly less twitchy and agile on the move. Running forwards, though, he can sprint and make plays.

Too often he feels pressure when the initial read isn’t there and takes off, with very mixed results. He needs to learn how to protect himself. Aside from the horrendous hit noted above he was needlessly smacked in the third quarter on a scramble when choosing not to slide. He frequently ran himself into trouble in this game after his initial (or only) read wasn’t open.

He also had quite a few misses (59.5% completions) on pretty standard throws.

To be fair he was a bit unlucky with the interception. It’s a comeback route and the receiver slips, leaving the DB with an easy pick. I still don’t think it was a good throw — it’s low and inside. The route isn’t good enough, it’s too tight to the sideline and he didn’t give the QB much margin for error. Yet this was a dangerous throw even without the slip.

I didn’t make a note of a difficult throw he completed in the game. This is a stark contrast to someone like Michael Penix Jr, who’s basically a highlight-reel machine for ‘did you just see that?’ completions. Again, everything’s cheap and to the outside. This isn’t a very demanding and complex offense.

He barely threw over the middle but did miss badly on a crossing route with 5:53 remaining in the game. His numbers were boosted at the very end by a sloppy 75-yard touchdown courtesy of some shocking tackling by FSU.

Overall I thought this was a disappointing performance from Daniels showing very little pro-promise.

Jordan Travis has a game of extremes

He seemed a bit unsettled to start, overshooting to the left sideline after scrambling away from pressure. Travis then threw an odd knuckleball off play-action with 9:22 left in the first quarter. It was difficult for the receiver to read in the air and fluttered to an incompletion.

He threw a shocking interception with 10:42 left in the first half trying too hard to create. He fakes a hand-off and then faces a blitzing defender in the backfield. He pump-fakes to get away from the pressure, steps up into the pocket then throws to the intended receiver in the flat. The problem is, the defender in coverage has stepped into the frame having bit on the pump-fake so when the throw is finally made, the defender is basically stood right in the way of the receiver for an easy pick. This is a quick-hitting play to the flat emphasising YAC. You can’t buy time, telegraph the pass with a pump-fake and then make this throw. It’s the kind of error you’d hope your QB just never makes.

He then nearly had a second back-breaking interception moments later. From his own goal-line he faces pressure to the left-hand side. He steps up and into more pressure and basically has two defenders closing in from the front and one from behind:

No quarterback ever wants to be in this kind of situation but you’ve got to avoid making a bad situation worse. For some reason, he does a little jump and tries to throw it down the middle of the field. He is hit in the air as the ball is released. The ball loops right into the path of two LSU defenders. Somehow, one of the defenders leaps up and tips it away from his teammate, leading to an incompletion. It should’ve been easily picked and possibly would’ve ended up being a defensive touchdown. You can’t make these mistakes at QB.

At this point in the tape you’re starting to think this could be a long game. Yet, to his credit, he settled down and point-guarded his way through the rest of the game quite effectively (despite FSU dropping their fare share of catchable passes).

He seems like a much more natural improviser than Daniels. He’s comfortable on the move and keeps his eyes downfield. You see him reading different options while scrambling to extend plays. He’s creative and can make things happen. Daniels was panicking when the initial read wasn’t there — Travis was doing a far better job getting on the move to buy time only when it was required.

Alternatively, when he was given time in the pocket he threw over the middle nicely. He made a number of very competent, translatable middle-field throws that Daniels simply didn’t attempt.

With 1:02 left in the first half he produced a well executed touchdown. Travis faced pressure from both sides but stays in the pocket. He’s a bit toes-y with his technique but he spots the 1v1 to the end zone and throws a nice catchable ball with the necessary height to give his receiver a chance to make the play.

He had a similar completion with 5:50 left in the third quarter. He’s throwing from his own goal-line so he’s in a tough position again. He spots the 1v1 down the right hash-mark and again throws with excellent loft and trajectory, giving the receiver a 1v1 opportunity.

Finally, he then had another touchdown on a fade seeing the 1v1 to the left pylon and nailing the loft and trajectory for a third time. Having produced explosive plays to help Florida State build a lead, he then managed the game efficiently to complete the rout.

You come away from it thinking he has plus athleticism, he’s better on the move than Daniels, he does a good job seeing what the defense is giving him and he can put the ball where it needs to go. There were two huge errors early on but he settled down after that.

He really mixed in two extremes of ‘WTF’ and ‘competency’ in this tape. He lacks the incredible tools of some of his peers and I sense he has limitations that’ll cap his pro-prospects in terms of draft stock — but Travis and his team were more impressive on the night compared to his opposite number and an under-par LSU opponent.

Why am I focusing on quarterbacks?

A couple of people have asked this because the perception in some places is the position is settled. Geno Smith has been paid and Drew Lock showed well in pre-season as a competent back-up and maybe an option for the future.

There are a number of reasons why I’m still scouting quarterbacks.

Firstly, the situation isn’t as settled as some think. A reminder that Geno Smith’s contract has a significant ‘out’ at the end of the season. It’s a heavily incentivised deal and if he underperforms, he can be easily cut.

This doesn’t mean he has to be awful either. If Smith has an average season, they will still need to make a call on whether he’s worth a minimum of $31.2m for 2024. Some of his incentives are very achievable too. He receives an extra $2m if he achieves any of the following:

Passing Yards (4,282)
Passing Touchdowns (30)
Completion % (69.8)
Passer Rating (100.9)
Wins (9)

The Seahawks could go 9-8, he could throw 30 touchdowns and 22 interceptions and he could throw for a not unrealistic 4282 yards and his salary next year would be $37.2m. It’s very easy to see why, in that circumstance, they might cut him to make a huge saving (as much as $22.5m) or ask him to take a sizeable pay-cut and compete for a job again next year.

We all hope Smith has a fantastic season but it’s worth noting that his second half of last season was mixed to say the least and he had a high number of turnover-worthy plays that didn’t actually lead to turnovers.

Here’s something I wrote earlier this year:

On average 80.6% of turnover worthy plays result in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

That’s staggering.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

So while we all hope Smith excels (and he has every chance with a loaded offense filled with weapons) — we also need to be open-minded about the future.

It was an inspired contract the Seahawks penned with him. It keeps him motivated due to the achievable escalators in the deal, it rewards him for a strong overall 2022 season and it protects the team against a financial burden if he flops this year. I’m not assuming he will thrive or struggle in 2023 — I’ll root for success as a fan and study the 2024 quarterbacks in case that is necessary.

It’s also worth remembering Smith turns 33 in October. It’s not so old to be a concern but it also can’t be assumed that he’ll just go on for years because he hasn’t started a lot of football games in his career. You don’t stop ageing, I’m afraid, even if you’re experiencing an Indian Summer in your career.

Next, Lock is only on a one-year deal. If he departs next year, which is possible, the Seahawks will need to replace him one way or another. If it’s another backup they’re after, it makes sense to draft a quarterback on a cheap deal you can develop behind Smith.

Thirdly, John Schneider. Immediately after the 2023 draft he made reference to the ‘superior’ QB class next year and the desire to gain extra stock (another third rounder). He name-dropped Quinn Ewers. I think there are QB’s he will like in this class and better yet, they might be more likely to be day-two picks where the Seahawks have the extra pick. Since the Russell Wilson trade I think Schneider has fully intended to draft a QB and for whatever reason, it hasn’t worked out. I still think that intention remains.

Finally, I just enjoy scouting quarterbacks. I’m going to do a lot of work on defensive linemen too. Yet until the Seahawks have a clear long-term answer at QB, there seems little reason not to scout them and be fully across the options available.

First thoughts on Riley Leonard

I want to watch more of Leonard and I’ve only seen a condensed version of Clemson vs Duke which isn’t ideal. However, people requested some notes so here they are.

Firstly, what an athlete. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say he has Josh Allen-esque athletic qualities. He’s unnaturally big and fast with a good arm. He’s not 250lbs like Allen and he doesn’t have quite the same cannon. Yet it’s impossible not to be impressed with his physical upside which, on first viewing, has first round potential.

Leonard seems to have very easy arm strength. The ball comes out cleanly and with punch. He generally has a good base when given time in the pocket. He can also improvise and change his throwing angles to create.

When he feels pressure he tends to stomp his feet and panic, then try to get the ball out as quickly as possible. On third down this was an issue against Clemson. He’d become antsy and treat the football like a hot potato — chucking it out quickly and often way in front of the sticks. He needs to be more poised and use his athleticism, when needed, to buy time.

As a runner he is exceptional. He made a defender miss in the open field seven seconds into the second half and then scored a remarkable running touchdown with 12:40 left in the third quarter. Leonard ‘Beastquaked’ his way through two initial defenders, kept his balance, accelerated very quickly having regained his footing, out-ran a cornerback to the edge and then burst past him tip-toeing down the sideline and into the end-zone. It was a ‘wow’ play and the type will get teams’ attention.

However, there was nothing spectacular about his accuracy in this performance. He had subtle misses in the game, including on some crucial third downs. His pocket-anxiety worries me. Clearly this is not insignificant for a quarterback. He has the tools to become a very intriguing player but hopefully, over the course of the season, he can also show a bit more poise in the pocket to get closer to a player you can genuinely start to believe could be a very high pick.

The early candidates for Seattle

I do think this QB class could work out well for the Seahawks. I think it would appeal to them to have day-two options and that’s what is likely to be on offer. Caleb Williams is going to be the #1 pick. For me, I currently don’t have any other QB in mind for round one (including Drake Maye who I think has qualities but is being overrated by the media). This can obviously change as the season goes on.

It’s hard not to imagine the Seahawks having a certain amount of interest in Penix Jr. He seems like their type of guy as a character. Then there’s the arm which is frankly, at times, a work of art. He made very difficult, challenging throws look easy. I’d go as far as to say he is making throws I’m not sure I’ve seen other QB’s make, with the possible exception of you-know-who.

Penix Jr is also an explosive-play dynamo which appeals to Seattle’s offense. What tempers his stock is his injury history, age (he’ll be a 24-year-old rookie) and scheme. The system at UW is extremely user-friendly and difficult to project. I fear for him a bit when he faces consistent pressure, which he just doesn’t get at Washington.

However, it’ll be a joy to see how that arm gets on at the next level and I wouldn’t bet against him landing in Seattle if he can continue to put up big numbers and limit the turnovers this year (he had eight interceptions in 2022 and really it’d be good to see no more than five given the system and weapons he has).

I think the other name I’m focusing on increasingly is Spencer Rattler. He’s been on a journey, battled adversity, stuck it out and showed grit. He’s become increasingly mature as a person and football player and he has top-five tools as a passer.

After being sacked nine times in week one, South Carolina might get him injured by the turn of the year. Yet it was fascinating to see how he handled that against UNC. He didn’t press or force anything. He stayed in control. He didn’t turn the ball over. Rattler did his job and simply didn’t get any help.

He will also be a 24-year-old rookie next year and teams will want to study how ‘long term’ his new-found dedication to his craft is. There’s just a bit of magic to him though. It’s finally here, the player everyone knew he could be. You can’t help but be intrigued.

I think Riley Leonard could work his way into Seattle’s thinking if he continues to play well and there will be others we can discuss. I’ll finish by mentioning Quinn Ewers. I think it’s clear Schneider — and probably all of the other Green Bay tree of evaluators — will be attracted to him as a person and the incredible release and whip-like motion he has. However, I just felt like against Rice it was more of the same from Ewers. He can’t throw deep with accuracy or consistency. He makes too many mistakes and he’s ‘off’ too often. The talent is there but the execution still, sadly, is missing.

He plays at Alabama this weekend. That’ll be a huge test for him. He can’t have many more games like last week or the pressure for Arch Manning to take over will grow. He has a lot of natural talent but he’s currently a mile away from being the high pick some are suggesting he will be.

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It was a pretty different Saturday night for me, since British viewers have been blacked out from watching college football. I drove from a vacation in Normandy in France back to Yorkshire, a 14-hour experience in total, and settled in to see what the scores were rather than being able to watch a couple of recorded games.

Twitter, or ‘X’, was turned on. What were people saying?

Initially it was a stream of Shedeur Sanders and Colorado talk. Then Michael Penix Jr and the Huskies. Eventually, Drake Maye’s name started to dominate.

UNC’s quarterback is almost universally considered a top-five lock within draft media circles. I do not agree. I studied his tape over the summer along with many other 2024 draft eligible QB’s. There are definitely things to like but there were also aspects of his game where he needed to improve to justify a lofty projection.

When I looked online at what people were saying about Maye, I found it confusing. Twitter/X is often a place were bad takes are made on football. Cast your mind back to the Senior Bowl for example, where players being shoved backwards in 1v1’s were being credited with ‘wins’.

We saw a quarterback version of this yesterday.

Maye was getting a lot of love for incredibly risky, ill-advised throws that, to his great fortune, didn’t lead to turnovers. Until they did, of course, later in the game. He finished with two interceptions.

He had a play at the start of the second quarter where he moved out of the pocket to extend the play, then he opted to throw dangerously across his body over the middle of the field. We’ve all seen this kind of throw. It’s the type no coach ever encourages, looks dreadful when it goes wrong and when it goes right you often breathe a sigh of relief.

To Maye’s credit, the pass was about as nicely thrown as it could be in the circumstances and it led to a completion. The reality is though it was an incredibly risky play. Twitter/X was gushing with praise, revelling in the excitement of a video lasting a few seconds that’ll no doubt generate a ton of views.

The problem is, he did the exact same thing later in the game and it led to a pick.

With 2:20 left in the third quarter and with North Carolina leading 31-14 and coasting to victory, Maye was leading a drive to add to their lead. He scrambled to his right and again threw across his body and chucked it straight into the grateful hands of a defensive back for an interception.

The camera panned to a UNC fan with his head in his hands. What a gift. A totally unnecessary, ill-advised brain fart.

Instead of being buried, South Carolina suddenly had life. This play didn’t receive any traction online of course. Yet the pattern of behaviour carries on from last season. There’s a reckless streak to Maye. He takes chances and gets lucky in college, sometimes. At the next level I’m not convinced he’ll be as fortunate.

He threw his second interception with 11:49 in the game. It’s now 31-17. He tries to launch it to the right sideline but overthrows the receiver and the pass is slightly high and wide. It’s difficult for the receiver to grab and he ends up tipping it into the air like a goalkeeper, collected by a defender for a turnover.

Maye was doing his best to get South Carolina back into the game.

Another play got a lot of traction on social media that irked me even more. With 6:30 left in the third quarter he scored a touchdown considered ‘magical’ by many but in reality, it’s a complete ‘no, no, no, no, no YES‘ play that again, he’s unlikely to get away with in the NFL.

Right off the snap Maye drifts to his left putting him in no position to throw with base or set his feet. He is pressured and panics, knowing he has to get the ball out quickly or he’ll be sacked. He pumps and then throws way off balance off his back foot. The pass floats into the end zone, aimlessly. To his great fortune, it’s sufficiently under-thrown that the DB gets himself into a poor position and the receiver, looking back to the QB, adjusts and makes the catch.

This is not a good play. It’s extremely ill-advised and lucky. It’s a fluke — but Twitter/X lapped it up.

There were a handful of plays like this with Maye last year. In his keenness to make something happen all of the time, he does take risks. I think people are so used to seeing Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and co. make the improbable happen that they see plays like this and imagine Maye doing the same. I’m not buying it. These are lucky moments and in the South Carolina game yesterday, we saw what happens when the luck runs out with that first interception.

This isn’t me saying Maye is a bad player, an awful prospect or that he won’t be drafted in round one. I’m just trying to bring perspective to the discussion that so far we simply aren’t seeing. Caleb Williams is a freak of nature and fully deserves to be the assumed #1 pick. Maye seems to be getting the same benefit of the doubt and is another assumed top selection. Not for me. He has a lot to do to justify that and it starts with knowing when to take a chance, how to avoid unnecessary risks and playing with a bit more control.

The positives in fairness are very good. On a 3rd and 12 Maye had all day to process, step into his throw and make a strong completion on a slant. It’s not a difficult play to make but when you see a QB just execute as well as he did on a key third down like that, it’s a big tick in the box. Although it also has to be said, he missed a wide-open receiver to the left sideline for a potential big chunk play two plays earlier.

With 4:10 in the second quarter, he had a pretty throw from the right hash-mark on his own 24-yard line to the left sideline 30 yards downfield. Maye flashed great touch, accuracy and placement to beat the coverage. His throwing base is strong when he doesn’t drift or wander off out of the pocket.

He had a 40-yard touchdown where the receiver was wide-open but it was still a nicely thrown ball over the top of the coverage. Maye also had a great 45-yard bomb off play-action to the one-yard line to set up a score. He stepped into the throw perfectly and again showed perfect placement on the pass.

The talent is clearly there but some of the ‘OMG’ highlights online should really be labelled ‘WTF’ or ‘WYD?’.

It sounds strange but this game might be the most impressed I’ve been with South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler, even in a comprehensive loss.

At Oklahoma he was reckless, had zero patience and just tried to rely on talent. He’d often throw into double or triple coverage and it’s no surprise he was hooked as quickly as he was with Williams, now at USC, waiting on the sideline.

It feels like Rattler’s been on quite a journey. He continued to struggle in his first year with the Gamecocks but later in the year the light switched on. He led South Carolina to superb wins against Tennessee and Clemson. He was starting to combine talent with execution, a professional approach and he looked like a legit QB prospect.

In this game he didn’t stand a chance. He was sacked nine times and had several other near-sacks. To put this into context, Bo Nix (four sacks), Michael Penix Jr (seven sacks) and C.J. Stroud (eight sacks) were sacked fewer times in the entire 2022 season than Rattler was in this one game. Can you believe that?

This was Kentucky 2022 level incompetence from the South Carolina offensive line. Kentucky gave up 42 sacks last season as Will Levis was battered and bruised and it seems Rattler faces the same fate. This isn’t talked about enough when we discuss QB’s for the draft. Situations and environments for these players matter. It’s OK watching these extreme spread, half-field read systems where the QB never gets touched and hailing the mass production. You also need to embrace what other players have to contend with and on this evidence, it could be a long year for Rattler.

Nevertheless I thought he looked smooth, made good decisions and he looks way beyond the QB we saw at Oklahoma. There was no panic in his play. He didn’t try to force anything. He was in control, at least as much as he could be. He was constantly under duress and rarely had time to set and throw. He frequently had to try and bail out of the pocket immediately. He continued to play with ice-veins though and make completions when he had opportunities and he never came close to turning the ball over. He was a playmaker who deserved more help than he received.

Rattler oozes natural talent. Based purely on tools I think he’s QB2 after Williams. His ability is unquestionable — it was always his dedication, consistency, maturity and approach that needed work. It seems he has reached the required level now and he looks like an exciting talent despite the chaos going on in front of him.

Both QB’s suffered with drops in this game. Rattler endured a back-breaking 4th and 4 drop at the very start of the second half after South Carolina pulled off a well-executed onside kick. Execute that and it could’ve been a different game.

With 14:49 left in the fourth quarter he threw under intense pressure a 40-yard pass to capitalise on a 1v1 to the left sideline. Look at what he had to contend with as he released the pass:

There was a great adjustment to the ball by the receiver but the throw showed off Rattler’s arm talent under pressure. That says more for his pro-prospects than being given a bunch of comfortable half-field calls from the sideline where the coaches read the defense for you.

On several occasions he threw with timing and anticipation despite pressure. He created on the move, showed off his big arm and he just needed help from the rest of his team.

So while Maye had the internet talking — I think this was actually a better showcase for Rattler’s blossoming pro-prospects, while the UNC QB has work to do to live up to the hype.

Rattler fascinates me. He has the arm and talent that John Schneider would typically love. The way he’s grown as a person also will likely appeal — although the Seahawks would do a ton of homework on Rattler to judge how long-term his new-found approach/attitude is. They like players who’ve battled adversity and grown but they also value character, maturity and determination more than ever.

Assuming they’ll be open to drafting a QB next year (Schneider was already referencing QB’s in his post-draft press conference this year) — and assuming they don’t end up with a top-five pick — the chances are the Seahawks will be looking for diamonds in the rough.

Penix Jr has an arm for the ages but his quirky release and offensive system can make for a challenging (but fun) evaluation. I do think the Seahawks will have interest in Penix Jr though, as he seems like their type of guy. Schneider name-dropped Quinn Ewers in May and he has incredible talent and a beautiful whip-like release but he has to show a lot more consistency this year and remove the mental errors that dogged him in 2022. He had a routine win against Rice yesterday but Texas go to Alabama next week.

I don’t think Rattler, Penix Jr or Ewers will necessarily end up being first round picks. At least at the moment they shouldn’t be in that conversation. I can mention a handful of other QB’s in a similar position too. That’s fine, though. I think the one thing we can say from this 2024 QB class is there will be day-two depth, there will be some intriguing ‘project’ types with arm talent and the Seahawks will have every chance to select someone they like without having to use a first round pick.

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In case you missed my note earlier this week, college football is currently blacked out in the UK. The subscription TV service (BT Sport) was bought out by Warner Brothers/Discovery (becoming TNT). Previously there was a ‘ESPN/BT Sport’ channel but that obviously was doomed once the takeover was complete because Warner Brothers/Discovery are not going to have an ESPN (Disney) channel on their service.

Thus, they have automatically removed college football coverage from British TV. Further to this, ESPN has closed the ‘ESPN Player’ streaming service creating a double whammy. We’re left with only NBC Notre Dame home games on Sky Sports.

I’m still pinning my hopes on DAZN or another streaming service buying the rights but it’s at least possible I’ll have no access to live college football this year. People will recommend ‘other ways’ of watching but because I work Saturday’s for the day job, I really need to be able to record these games (and I often re-watch or spend the game rewinding and replaying certain plays anyway).

It means I will need to wait for games to be loaded onto YouTube in full which tends to happen a few days later. The ACC games are condensed quite quickly (I’ve already watched Mario Cristobal continue to wreck Tyler Van Dyke’s career in week one). The others take a while.

I suspect this is a vain appeal but if anyone reads this blog with connections to college football or the NFL and can supply downloadable All-22 college tape purely for the purpose of scouting, send me an email to rob@seahawksdraftblog.com

At the moment I can only access highlights on a Saturday which don’t present a full and proper breakdown. However, I wanted to share some thoughts on Shedeur Sanders.

I had no access to his tape before this Colorado game so this was my first watch-through. He was very impressive against TCU.

Sanders throws beautifully to the sideline with perfect touch and velocity. He had one ‘wow’ throw from inside his own end-zone, downfield to the right sideline that hit his receiver right in the hands (it was dropped). Poise, touch, accuracy, calmness under pressure — it was all there.

He made another 45-yard throw to the same sideline look easy. It’s not just the deep stuff either. Sanders passed with authority across the middle and his game IQ was incredibly impressive. He did little things well that jump off the screen. For example, on a quick slant over the middle he felt the defender under-cutting the route. Thus, he deliberately threw ever so slightly behind the receiver, putting it on the hip rather than a throw in-stride. This not only protected the receiver from being blasted but it gave him the opportunity to make the catch without it being contested — he asked his target to adjust to the ball, which he did. This is next-level stuff you don’t see too often in college.

Don’t underestimate a play like that. So much in college football these days is highly manufactured, mass-production scripting making life easy for the QB with minimal reads (often one read) or requirements. For a QB like Sanders to show this level of feel and awareness and to be able to make a quick decision, adjust in-play and execute is highly impressive.

He also has a good arm (I think he can get bigger/stronger too), he throws a very catchable ball and technically there’s a lot to like. On a touchdown throw with 7:39 left in the game he leaves the pocket and runs to his left. He re-sets his feet to create ideal base and throws to the end zone for a score. There’s no heel-click in his motion or delay. These are all things you want to see and he’s ticking off boxes on this tape. The base he throws with in particular helps him so much to deliver with accuracy and velocity. His release is unusually high but it wasn’t problematic on this tape.

With 6:26 remaining in the game he faced pressure but he didn’t panic — he sat in the pocket to let his routes develop. Then, off his back-foot, he flicks his wrist and throws 20-yards over the middle through traffic (while avoiding hitting the referee) to get a 2nd and 9 conversion needing a score to take the lead. That’s exciting stuff.

Can he do this for a full season? That’s a big ask for a Colorado team whose defense looked poor enough to think they’ll cause the offense problems at some stage when they’re left in a hole. However, on a technical level this was an intriguing first watch.

Caleb Williams is on his own level. On his own planet, in fact. Planet #1 overall pick locked in and done. I think every other QB-placing after Williams is up for grabs. Sanders looked very good here. This is a very positive start.

I will try and watch his full tape later this week, plus Drake Maye vs Spencer Rattler, Quinn Ewers and Michael Penix Jr are the two others I really want to get full tape on in the coming days.

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One injury to Jarran Reed and the Seahawks will have a crisis on their hands.

That doesn’t feel like a hyperbole. This is the current D-line depth:

Myles Adams
Mario Edwards Jr.
Dre’Mont Jones
Mike Morris
Jarran Reed
Cameron Young

Young and Morris are currently injured. That means right now, the Seahawks only have one healthy defensive lineman who is over 300lbs. Reed.

Sure, Matt Gotel is back on the practise squad and can be called up to the active roster. That will almost certainly happen for week one against the Rams.

It does feel strange, though, that this topic isn’t being more widely discussed. It’s as if people don’t want to focus on the one glaring weakness on the roster when there are positive things that can easily act as a distraction.

Plus, the real football hasn’t started yet. It’ll become a big talking point if the Seahawks can’t stop the run up the middle or struggle to keep their linebackers clean at the second level. For now, it’s akin to that injury or illness you delay seeing the doctor about until it becomes too serious to ignore.

The Seahawks are small up front, lack size, don’t have any D-line depth to speak of, are set to ask two key players to take on a ton of snaps and if either misses significant time, it could be fatal for the defense.

Many fans hoped cut-down day would provide some relief on the defensive line. It never felt likely because as we keep saying, teams collect good defensive linemen, they don’t cut them. It’s very easy to stash even a minutely enticing D-liner as your 53rd man simply due to the importance of the position.

Seattle didn’t claim anyone at the position. Nobody in the league did. It speaks to how protective teams are of defensive linemen worth having.

It means the Seahawks are left with what they’ve got.

It shouldn’t be a problem against the hapless Rams who are seemingly in the spring-time of a major cultural and roster shift. LA gives off a slightly shambolic vibe at the moment with a top-heavy roster with some big names and not a lot else.

After that though, things could become serious very quickly.

Another reason I think people struggle to be too critical at the moment is the Seahawks splashed out on Dre’Mont Jones. That move went so against everything they’ve done in the past, you almost feel inclined to raise a glass and give them the benefit of the doubt. Jones was a great signing. A vital signing.

However, it feels like the whole D-line — and potentially the success of the defense this year — rests on Jones’ $55m shoulders. At least his and Reed’s. They are going to be relied on so much. That means a high percentage of snaps and a need to perform.

You don’t need to be a tactical savant to know it’d be worth testing the underbelly of Seattle’s defense early and often, rather than trying to combat their speed and talent in the secondary. Running the ball successfully would also take away a pass rush that is extremely promising. It’s going to be a huge challenge for this team every week after giving up 150 yards a game on the ground last season.

It’s seared into my brain, the memory of being in the press box in Munich and watching the Tampa Bay offensive linemen screaming at their sideline begging their coaches to ‘let them eat’. I’ve never seen that from a collective O-line group before. They knew they had Seattle’s number up front and were making it very obvious to everyone in Bayern Munich’s stadium. ‘We can run all over these guys’.

The Seahawks cleaned out the D-line responsible for that day during the off-season but are now left relying on two key free agent signings, two rookies, a second year UDFA and a man on his seventh team in eight years.

Everything else connects. If the D-line can’t do its job up front, it’ll impact Bobby Wagner and the linebackers. Wagner showed mortal traits in 2019 and 2020 when the Seahawks couldn’t keep him clean, or relied too much on him to produce choreographed opportunities for a blitzing Jamal Adams. It led to Wagner’s departure. Now that he’s back — if they want the best of him, they need to play well up front. It’s no coincidence he came roaring back into form last year with Aaron Donald playing on LA’s D-line.

What happens when Seattle’s D-line comes up against a big offensive line and an opponent determined to run? A light D-line doesn’t exactly fill you with confidence.

God forbid Reed and/or Jones miss any time because what then? 80% snaps for Myles Adams? And how can they manage Jones’ and Reed’s workload with such meagre depth?

It’s again hard to fathom how it’s come to this. They have $11m in cap space because they always had leavers to pull this summer (and they’ve been pulled). They could’ve easily signed at least one more veteran defensive tackle in March or April but chose not to. Heck, the Ravens had less money than the Seahawks this month and still signed Ronald Darby and Jadeveon Clowney.

In the next few weeks the Seahawks are either going to look like geniuses or they’re going to be shown up for completely neglecting a glaring, obvious issue in a totally unacceptable way — preventing a really promising roster from being as good as it can be.

They’ve been here before and had mixed results. A year ago they rolled the dice on Geno Smith and Drew Lock being ‘enough’ at quarterback and were proven right. In the past they’ve banked on Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin being enough to fix a pass rush and were shown to be misguided. Go back a bit further and look at how they approached the offensive line during years of turmoil up front. Trading Frank Clark and then trying to make up the shortfall with Ziggy Ansah, L.J. Collier and a last-minute trade for Jadeveon Clowney. Mixed results.

This is a trend for the Seahawks — to take big, arguably unnecessary, roster risks.

We’ll see how this latest one plays out. It’s hard to understand why they didn’t just sign one or two more grizzled veterans when they had the chance to at least feel like they don’t have to put too much on the plate of Reed and Jones or rely on currently injured first year players to succeed.

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Last week we discussed the possibility of trading for Chris Jones, who continues to hold-out in Kansas City with no resolution in sight.

The other dissatisfied big-name defensive tackle at the moment is Miami’s Christian Wilkins. He’s been ‘holding-in’ during camp as he seeks a new deal. Talks reached a stalemate and things came to a crescendo this week when they extended his D-line partner Zach Sieler to a three-year deal worth up to $38.6m.

According to Ian Rapoport, Wilkins and the Dolphins are poles apart in contract talks. That’s why Miami pivoted to Sieler, sensing things weren’t going anywhere with Wilkins.

A decision of some kind is forthcoming. Wilkins will be a free agent after this season, meaning he’ll need to be given the franchise tag or allowed to hit the market if a new deal isn’t signed.

Some Seahawks fans (and fans of other teams) have started to ask whether a trade could be in the offing. I wouldn’t get your hopes up.

It might not be as well publicised but the Dolphins are the AFC equivalent of the LA Rams. They are in an extreme ‘win-now’ mode. They’ve gone big in trades for Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb and Jalen Ramsey. They spent a fortune on Terron Armstead. The addition of Vic Fangio to lead the defense is a statement appointment.

They’re currently trying to complete a trade for Jonathan Taylor. They are being incredibly aggressive with the intention of winning as quickly as possible.

Financially they are a bit of a mess. They’re already $32.3m over the projected cap for 2024. They don’t have any obvious levers to pull either. They are going to have to mimic the Saints and basically spend the next few years borrowing on the credit card to make sure they can eventually re-sign talented younger players like Jaylen Waddle.

It’d be easy to conclude that trading Wilkins would do them a favour. It’d be one less mouth to feed. Yet it makes no sense for such an aggressive team to make that move now.

If you’re going to be as aggressive as the Dolphins, there’s no half-measure. If you trade Wilkins you create a void in the middle of the defense. The Dolphins don’t have a ready-made replacement waiting or great depth. You don’t go all-in, making the trades they have made, to then push a vital defensive lineman out the door.

If the Dolphins do trade Wilkins, it’s far more likely to be next year after tagging him. What is more likely is down the line they’ll get a deal done. Either way, trading him now would make little sense and would just create a problem.

Aggressive teams have to fly by the seat of their pants. The ones who create these ‘all-star’ teams loaded with stars are focused on the here and now, not the future. The Rams picked their poison, won a title and could easily be one of the worst teams in football in 2023 after being so aggressive. The Dolphins are probably thinking they want a piece of that and it’ll all be worth it if it means short-term glory and pain down the line.

I don’t see a scenario where Miami lets Wilkins walk. It’d probably take an insane haul. You can arguably justify a big trade for Chris Jones fresh off a 15.5 sack season. Wilkins, who’s only a year younger than Jones, has never had more than 4.5 sacks in a season.

Extremely talented, proven interior defensive line are as valuable as any non-quarterback position in the modern NFL. This is why both Wilkins and Jones are jostling for contract leverage, to max-out their pay at a time when they’re services are massively in demand.

I don’t anticipate either will end up in Seattle, or anywhere else for that matter. There’s certainly no excuse for the Chiefs not to pay Jones given their cap riches for 2024 and beyond.

Sadly, there’s not much of a solution brewing for the Seahawks unless they’re willing to be as aggressive as the Dolphins in the trade market. They are light up front, in size and depth, and unfortunately it could be a problem for them when the season kicks off. Fans are hoping for cut-down day solutions but as we keep saying — teams don’t cut good defensive linemen, they collect them.

I want to finish the article with a heads up. For the last few years I’ve had easy access to college football games on British TV. I could watch 5-6 games every weekend live or recorded. Combined with ESPN Player a year ago, I was able to watch as many as 8-12 games per week in full.

This year things are changing. Currently, no British TV channel has rights to show college football other than Notre Dame games on Sky Sports. This is because the broadcaster BT Sport has been bought out by TNT/Discovery. ESPN Player has also just announced it’s shutting down. Right now, I have no access to games.

People will suggest VPN’s but I broadcast for the day job on Saturday’s and when I’m travelling to commentate on a game, I often won’t get back until late. I need to be able to record games to watch back.

It’s not a huge issue because full games are loaded on to YouTube every week. However, I will need to wait for these to be uploaded before I can share my views. That could take a few days.

I’m hoping a streaming service like DAZN might step in at the last minute because there’s a growing market for college football in Britain. It’s practically unthinkable that we’d be shut-out. Sadly that is the case at the moment. If things change I’ll let you know but I might be more likely to write thoughts/reports in mid-week this year rather than the weekend.

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You can often learn a lot from Pete Carroll’s press conferences by parsing what he says. His tone often reveals more than the words.

It’s also pretty difficult for the world’s most energetic 71-year-old to hide excitement.

We’ve seen it with the way he’s discussed Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jake Bobo. Although the pair arrived in Seattle in very different circumstances, Carroll’s tone with both players has been nothing short of gushing. There’s a twinkle in his eye when he discusses the pair. It was notable that the often jocular Carroll seemed offended by a question after the first pre-season questioning Bobo’s speed (a characteristic that, it has to be said, the same reporter keeps bringing up and really needs to let it go — Bobo is legit, has been secure on this roster for a while and his pre-draft forty time was massively impacted by atrocious weather conditions).

Carroll expressed a concerned tone when talking about Mike Morris’ injury situation. Michael Jackson’s had a couple of challenging pre-season games. When asked yesterday for a review, Carroll looked away and said, “I need to see the film” — often code for an unwillingness to delve too deep into what was a tricky afternoon (the film isn’t needed when he wants to share positive thoughts).

I’ve noticed in the last two press conferences — before and after the Green Bay game — he has gone above and beyond to praise Olu Oluwatimi. He’s talked him up as being right in the mix, fighting for the starting job. He’s praised his toughness, fighting through injury to get back on the field. He’s all but stated ‘this is our guy’.

Evan Brown may start the season but he’ll be fighting to keep the job. I wouldn’t even be shocked if they throw Oluwatimi in there for week one. I think they see the former Michigan man as a long-term solution, someone who is capable of learning on the job just as Charles Cross and Abe Lucas did a year ago.

Perhaps Brown, a veteran, is more prepared today? I’m not suggesting they don’t rate him or don’t believe he can start. I just think with the way Carroll is speaking, they view Oluwatimi as the answer to a problem that has existed for a long time.

He was Mr. Consistency in college and is well regarded for his level-headed, intelligent approach to the position. If he does start against the Rams, it’d be a baptism of fire against Aaron Donald. That might just be something he has to suffer through as part of the learning process. Within a month he might’ve benefited from the live action and be in the best position to start for years to come.

Evan Brown is only on a one-year contract. They’ll start him if he’s clearly well ahead of Oluwatimi. That’s not the sense I get from Carroll, though. Oluwatimi is contracted for four years and if he can pick up the slack quickly — that’s three fifth’s of your offensive line on cheap rookie contracts for years. If it works out, they could be left with one of the best young offensive lines in the NFL.

Call this a hunch based on the way Carroll is speaking. Watching Oluwatimi combine with Anthony Bradford to carve open a huge running lane for Deejay Dallas yesterday has to get him excited. Oluwatimi was part of a very successful, award-winning, Championship winning O-line in the BIG-10. He’s better prepared than most players to come in and start quickly.

I get a sense that sooner than later this will be Oluwatimi’s starting role and when he gets the job, he won’t relinquish it — securing the heart of Seattle’s O-line for years.

Don’t rule out week one against LA for a starting berth.

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I’d love to offer some thoughts on the final pre-season outing. Sadly with GamePass switching over to DAZN this year, unlike the previous system, you can no longer watch online when you’re travelling Europe. Thus, I was shut-out. At least it wasn’t a regular season game.

I’ve seen bits and pieces courtesy of some rogue YouTube channels posting highlights. From what little I’ve seen it felt like a classic Drew Lock game. His arm talent was clearly on show again, as was his athleticism. His ability to complete pretty, explosive passes can be a thing of beauty. He made some excellent throws (including another touchdown to Jake Bobo — who is going to surprise a lot of people this year, I’m convinced of it).

Lock’s near pick-six in the first quarter though was clear evidence of the other side of his game.

He’s immensely talented. He is right up there in terms of natural gifts, arm strength and he is well above par when it comes to size and mobility. There is this side to his game though where you feel like a glaring error is never too far away. If he can eliminate those plays, the sky’s the limit for him. You just wonder, however, whether he’ll ever be able to do that. This is year five now.

Nevertheless, there’s little point in focusing on a negative today. He is, if nothing else, a talent-rich backup. There are plenty of lousy backups in the league, so that’s a plus. He’s in a tough spot — intriguing enough to want to see more but will he get the chance somewhere one day?

Let me know what you thought of the game in the comments section.

I wrote an article last week discussing the defensive tackle position and kind of dismissed the idea of a late, bold trade to bolster Seattle’s thinnest position.

So why, a week on, am I writing something different?

I think a few things have changed. Firstly, injuries. Cam Young is still out, Jarran Reed is receiving a rest day to limit his workload and Mike Morris has a concerning, lingering shoulder issue.

It’s one thing to be a bit green and small up front — it’s quite another to simply have a lack of bodies due to injuries.

I’ve also been watching with interest the developments in Kansas City. The Chris Jones holdout felt like a point-proving exercise for a while that would eventually get resolved without much fuss. Yet it’s now veering towards crisis point. He’s threatening to sit-out half a season. Andy Reid is having no time for it, stating, “Whatever happens, happens. The game goes on.”

It’s worth remembering that we’re only two weeks removed from Chiefs GM Brett Veach saying they had “no intention” of trading Jones. I suppose it’s also worth recalling that’s the exact same language the Seahawks used before the Russell Wilson trade. “No intention” stops short of a firm ‘no’ and sounds like a denial when it’s only sort of a rejection of the idea.

I did a bit of digging around Chiefs’ sites to gauge how they feel and was surprised to see some fairly open-minded articles.

This one points out they were willing to move Tyreek Hill. They were validated in doing so, winning a Super Bowl the next season. When you have Patrick Mahomes and a decorated Head Coach, it seems you can out-last anyone else.

An interesting dynamic is also noted regarding other players who will need to be paid in the future and how firm the Chiefs were in negotiations with Orlando Brown Jr:

Certainly, Chris Jones deserves to be paid more than what his current contract is set at. His play has dictated that he is arguably the best defensive tackle in the league, outside of Aaron Donald. Once again, Kansas City reportedly made him a significant offer. However, the Chiefs have been okay with moving on from star players that are seeking a noteworthy raise or are attempting to reset the market. Look no further than the aforementioned Hill or Orlando Brown Jr.

All told, recent history indicates that the Chiefs are unlikely to budge on sizable offers. The future salary cap outlook is always going to be crucial for a team with the best quarterback in the NFL. And while they would likely want to keep Jones for his entire career, other names like Creed Humphrey, Trey Smith, Nick Bolton and L’Jarius Sneed are in a contract year in either 2023 or 2024. Outside of Mahomes, it is going to be rare for a player to reset the market in Kansas City. The Chiefs have made that abundantly clear.

It’s still unclear why the Chiefs haven’t just sorted this out by now. They have over $47m in projected cap space next year, 10th most in the league despite the fact they’re paying their franchise quarterback big money. They can easily afford to give Jones a front-loaded pay-rise to secure the rest of his peak years.

It could be that Jones is simply being too unreasonable and therefore, he’s pricing himself out of an extension anywhere not just Kansas City. That would also seem an odd thing to do. He’s won the jackpot getting to play with Mahomes. He has two rings, a healthy bank balance and moving away will make him richer financially but probably not in the ring department.

Then again, Hill also sacrificed the chance to play with Mahomes to go to Miami. He’ll be productive but not as productive as he’d be with a quarterback seemingly destined to be the best to ever play the game.

Maybe there are cashflow problems surrounding a $477m commitment to Mahomes over 10-years that are not abundantly obvious? It helps the cap hit but maybe hammers the spending money. Who knows? That’s speculative, it’s just a bit weird how the team and player haven’t found common ground. Jones is a rare talent.

One other reason why I dismissed a trade last week was the potential cost of a deal. Why wouldn’t the Chiefs ask for a Jamal Adams-esque haul?

Yet in this article, from another Chiefs fan-site, the suggested price is a lot less extreme:

As I’ve said before, wide receivers are a hot commodity, but pass rushers are worth their weight in gold. Which is why I think the Chiefs could easily get at least two first-round picks for Chris Jones. However, his age could absolutely play a factor in that outcome.

At the absolute least, it seems reasonable that a team would give up one first round pick, a second, and then a few late round picks similar to the Hill trade. Anything less would feel like a net loss for the Chiefs.

Jones has just turned 29 so this is likely to be a one-contract trade. You’d be making a deal for his remaining peak years — age 29-33.

It’s tricky to project how a defensive tackle will hold-up. It’s not easy being 310lbs and retaining speed, agility and quickness into your 30’s. Joints have taken a beating by that point. Yet Jones isn’t a typical defensive lineman. He had 15.5 sacks last season. That’s insane. He has 65 sacks in six years as a featured player.

If he produced 40 sacks in four years, that would easily — in my opinion — be worth a first and second rounder plus change. It can be the difference between a good and great team, especially when you have decent overall depth but lack a generational quarterback like the Chiefs.

He also wouldn’t necessarily need to have massive-sack numbers. His impact in crucial games could be defining. Many consider the Frank Clark trade a bit of a miss for the Chiefs but ultimately, his sack production in the playoffs was a major contributing factor in Kansas City playing in three Super Bowls.

I genuinely thought ‘never again’ on trades like this and I’d say that for probably any DT not named Aaron Donald or Chris Jones. Yet his talent combined with team need makes it intriguing. I don’t think you’ll find anyone in the draft next year like Jones. I’m tempted to say it’d be worth the outlay to see if he can take you to the pinnacle.

It would be a huge move but then they’ve already invested a handsome sum in Dre’Mont Jones. Perhaps he’s their one splash and makes a big trade highly unlikely? I’d say that’s probably right. There is something quite exciting though about the two Jones’ teaming up inside with Seattle’s exciting young edge rushers (and perhaps even a blitzing Jamal Adams) attacking a key third down.

Josina Anderson loves a cryptic tweet almost as much as a mention that she can phone or text many players for breaking news — but I couldn’t help but be drawn to this bait:

There is an NFC team being real quiet at the moment…that has me thinking a bit. We’ll see though.

— JosinaAnderson (@JosinaAnderson) August 12, 2023

The Seahawks have been kind of quiet, right? And that isn’t typical for them.

Is something building behind the scenes?

I think the answer is ‘probably not’ but it’s August, the ideal time for a bit of ‘what if?’ talk among friends.

I’d prefer the Seahawks to keep building through the draft, find ways to be opportunistic and follow the plan that has worked so well in the last two off-seasons. Yet there comes a point where you’re close and the temptation to make that one big move to push you over the edge just grows exponentially. When it’s a truly world-class player you’re talking about, it becomes even more intriguing.

The Head Coach turns 72 in September. They have accelerated the build somewhat by paying top dollar to players. Would you be in favour of a big trade? Would you offer a first and second rounder for Chris Jones, plus some later round compensation?

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