
Quinn Ewers had his best game for Texas in a win against Alabama
Note: This is a long post, starting with some thoughts on the Seahawks. If you want to skip to the quarterback scouting notes, there’s a bold title (‘This was an impressive weekend of QB play’) where the review begins.
When I sat down to watch multiple college football games this weekend (thank you, YouTube) I did so anticipating a good start to the season for the Seahawks.
As I’m putting these notes together today, on Tuesday, I feel very differently. I’m inclined now to face a stark reality that the current regime might be able to make the current roster more competent than we saw against the Rams. However, I have no belief that they’ll be able to guide this franchise back to a deep playoff run. We’re seeing too many of the same problems repeat over the last few years.
Further to that, the manner of the performance — ragged, tactically inept, incapable of adjustment, shambolic in the second half — has torched any feeling that this can be anything more than a streaky team who may well win a collection of games this year and raise spirits but they’ll collapse as soon as they face a meaningful opponent in a meaningful contest.
Geno Smith wasn’t to blame on Sunday but he did show, sadly, that he isn’t going to be able to drag his team out of a hole when the going gets tough. We’ve seen this type of offensive performance before. Whether that’s on the quarterback or the staff, the Seahawks have had halves where they’ve not been able to do anything. Even in last year’s opener against Denver — a game that was celebrated like a Championship win by many — the Seahawks did absolutely nothing offensively in the second half.
Sunday left me feeling like the idea of paying Smith anywhere between $31.2m and $41.2m next year would be hard to justify given the financial state of the team. Now, I appreciate it’s one game and in the coming weeks it’s almost certain Smith will perform far better than we saw against the Rams. Yet the Seahawks, since the Germany trip last year, are 3-7 in their last 10 games. Within that stretch, Smith has not played well.
As I go into this extensive, thorough review of what I saw from the quarterbacks in college football at the weekend — I couldn’t help but think of two things.
Firstly, the Seahawks need to draft a QB next year. They currently have a projected available cap of $975,664 for 2024. Less than a million dollars. They saved money this year by re-working Jamal Adams’ contract. They have approximately $9m to spend. This wasn’t to go and target a Chris Jones type via trade. It was to have the capability to go and bring in someone like Jason Peters, if needed. Now they have the money to do that. Whether it’ll be a waste of money on a 41-year-old (!!!) tackle when you can just start Stone Forsythe instead remains to be seen. Every penny they spend on Peters, though, comes out of the amount they can roll into next year.
Their best lever to create cap space in 2024 is going to be moving on from Geno Smith. If he can’t lead an offense — with all of the talent on the roster we see — to more than three meaningful yards in an entire half of football — then they need to think about saving money.
Secondly, I don’t want Pete Carroll overseeing a fresh start at the position. He has consistently had his defense unprepared to start the season for too many consecutive years. This is supposed to be his calling card. We can’t keep doing the same thing every season. Carroll’s motivational skills are obvious and nobody is saying he’s a bad coach or doesn’t deserve flowers galore for all he’s achieved in Seattle. It’s time, though, after 13 years, to embrace that nothing lasts forever.
I want to see a good, quality offensive mind brought in to lead a new era. I appreciate that is easier said than done. I look at Sean McVay with the Rams and Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers and think, that’s what I want. Think Nick Sirriani and what he’s done for Jalen Hurts. Heck, I’ll take a Matt LaFleur.
Perhaps the opponents on Sunday, Detroit, possess the man of the moment in offensive coordinator Ben Johnson? Maybe the new McVay, Shanahan or Sirriani isn’t an obvious candidate we can easily name at this juncture?
I detest the ‘careful what you wish for’ scaredy-cat approach so many resort to in response to this topic. As noted yesterday, the Seahawks themselves have benefitted from being prepared to take chances.
I also subscribe to the theory presented by Mike Florio that it is best to pair a new quarterback with an offensive minded Head Coach. That way, if the team succeeds, said coach will not be poached by another team. If you appoint a defensive-minded Head Coach and their offensive coordinator succeeds with the QB, it’s almost certain you’ll eventually have to replace the coordinator.
Dan Quinn knows this all too well. He went to the Super Bowl and Matt Ryan was named NFL MVP when he had Kyle Shanahan as offensive coordinator. As soon as Shanahan bolted for Santa Clara, the wheels fell off in Atlanta. I have a minor concern that when Carroll does eventually move on, whenever that will be, Quinn will replace him. I’m not totally against the idea because Quinn has repaired his reputation post-Atlanta with an excellent stint in Dallas. However, he also gets to work with Micah Parsons and any offensive success could stall — as it did in Atlanta — if the offensive coordinator is ripe for picking down the line.
Whether this is realistic or not, I think the Seahawks’ long-term vision should be to pair a young, talented quarterback with an excellent offensive-minded Head Coach. People will try and shut-down this kind of talk as premature and reactionary to one defeat. It isn’t that at all. We’re seeing the same problems go unaddressed year after year. They speak of being competitive annually, yet they haven’t been a proper playoff force for nearly a decade. They haven’t been able to recreate the bullying, formidable roster they crave and they struggle to be a fine-tuned, tactical powerhouse either. It feels like one season blends into the next. Players and coaches come and go but ultimately, they never feel any closer to the top teams in the league.
Sunday was a flash-point because it was so bad. Everything we’ve come to expect from this team in a negative sense under Carroll was exposed for all to see. Complaints and a desire for change are not new calls off the back of one game.
Apologies if this has felt like a rambling, unnecessary introduction into what is essentially a long-read on quarterback scouting. I feel this kind of conversation is necessary though. It’s unacceptable to see the defense so ill-prepared to start a football season yet again. It’s unacceptable to see the team out-thought and out-coached by an opponent who, according to the players, ‘wanted it more’.
The Seahawks under Carroll are never likely to be so bad that a parting becomes inevitable. Yet I don’t think, nearly a decade after their last meaningful playoff run, they’re ever going to return to those days under this Head Coach. I think it’s time for a fresh start. New ideas, a new approach. And that means, probably, a new young quarterback too.
Luckily, the 2024 class is showing a lot of potential.
This was an impressive weekend of QB play
Over the summer I spent considerable time scouting the 2024 quarterbacks and came away with the impression that it’s a very deep, loaded class. However, I wasn’t convinced there’d be three quarterbacks taken in the top-five like this year.
I’m still generally of that mindset. I think it could change, though, because outside of Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr I’m really struggling to find players who warrant a top-five projection. It looks like a very thin draft class again for high picks. That could mean a number of QB’s are promoted way up the board.
The thing is, so many of the QB’s I’ve watched at the start of this college football season are playing great football. They are impressing me more than I expected. I’ve started compiling notes for my horizontal board and I’ve already got 11 quarterbacks earmarked for a potential placing in the first three rounds. I haven’t even watched everyone yet. More names could be added to the list.
2024 is shaping up to be an ideal year to invest in a quarterback.
Quinn Ewers (Texas) vs Alabama
This was easily the best I’ve seen Ewers play. It is worth noting before we start that Alabama were dreadful. They look mediocre in a way I can’t recall under Nick Saban. There were no clear defensive difference makers, no dynamic running backs and the quarterback only offered a handful of splashy plays and a lot of maddening nonsense. Alabama look like they could easily drop a few games this year and be an afterthought come the winter. It’s a long time since we’ve been able to say that.
It’s also worth noting that Texas played Alabama well a year ago and would’ve beaten them but for Bryce Young’s magic. Steve Sarkisian seems to have an angle on how to play his old team close. That said, you have to credit Texas. Ewers was excellent and made every key play he needed to make. Their offence answered every time Alabama put points on the board. I also think Texas’ D-line shone in a big way. Byron Murphy was superb and T’Vondre Sweat anchored nicely as a nose tackle with plus athleticism — his second strong performance in as many weeks.
It was interesting to hear that Ewers has dropped weight to get to 195lbs. He can’t stay at that weight in the NFL so it’d be interesting to see how the league views that.
Time and time again he stayed poised in the pocket, allowed plays to develop and diagnosed what throw he needed to make. Texas were 9/21 on third and fourth down and Ewers consistently made good decisions to convert.
We saw a lot of the Sarkisian staple offense here — passes into the flat, swing-passes and easy outs. Sark’s offense does have a lot of high-percentage stuff and it didn’t translate well to the NFL when he became an OC at the next level. It’s worth noting. However, Ewers still impressed mightily here.
He converted his first third down with his legs, showing good awareness and athleticism.
On his first score, he converted a crucial 3rd and 8 with tremendous patience in the pocket, his footwork is good to just stay on course and navigate the pressure, he keeps his eyes downfield and delivers a good throw when his receiver uncovers running towards the left sideline. It’s excellent QB management of the play. Then, he lofts a perfectly thrown deep-ball for a big touchdown.
The deep-ball has been a point of contention for Ewers. He was awful throwing deep against Rice last week and it’s certainly an area where there are question marks. Having dropped down to 195lbs he does look small and he lacks the big tools of a 6-4, 225lbs passer. That has to be a little bit of a concern. However, this was as good a deep ball as we saw last weekend — perfect loft and height on the pass, good arm strength and incredible accuracy.
He had a terrific 3rd and 4 conversion with 9:08 remaining in the first half. He hitches (perhaps unnecessarily) and that allows a pass rusher to hit him as he cocks to throw. Even so, he stands tall, absorbs contact and delivers a huge strike down the middle of the field to convert. He needed eight yards, he got 20. The receiver is wide open to be fair (Alabama were tragically bad) but he still did well under pressure.
There were times were his accuracy was still a little bit patchy, especially towards the end of the first half and start of the second. He had some misses.
With 7:49 left in the third quarter he threw a lovely fade down the left sideline. He was stuck on his own goal line but stayed poised, saw the 1v1 to the outside and gave his receiver a chance to make a big play.
He had a nice scoring drive to start the fourth quarter. The Alabama coverage was suspect but the touchdown throw was expertly executed. He had to wait for the receiver to clear the safety, who was reading the QB. He anticipated the right time to throw and nailed the pass. Ideal timing and placement. This is the kind of field IQ and feel you want to see from a pro-prospect — not just executing high-percentage throws or bombs to open NFL receivers. He was using his brain as much as the scheme and the physical tools to make this play.
I really liked a 2nd and 15 conversion with 10:36 remaining in the game. It’s a well read play, executed to perfection over the middle. Ewers was comfortable attacking soft spots in coverage over the middle.
Alabama, even in this form, are a difficult opponent to play on the road. There were various times were the crowd got into it or the hosts had momentum. Every time, Ewers and the Texas offense answered when they needed a drive. He finished 24/38 passing for 349 yard and three touchdowns. This was by far his best game in college. If he keeps this up he will have serious draft momentum to match his natural talent and whip-like release.
Shedeur Sanders (Colorado) vs Nebraska
In this game Sanders again showed he is a next level operator with the necessary arm strength, creativity, field IQ and natural ability. You get the feeling he was born to play the position. I’m starting to think he won’t declare this year, he’ll stick it out with his Dad for 2024 and he’ll start next year as the expected #1 pick for 2025.
Sanders showed he can nail a difficult out-route where he has to move off the spot, re-set his feet and deliver when the defensive back has threatening positional leverage. He has the arm strength to throw across the field into tight windows.
On another throw, he delivered a strike from the left hash right across to the right sideline — showing off his ability to throw with punch and timing.
He had some misses in the first half and a settling down period was required. He didn’t seem to be on the same page as his receivers sometimes and you could argue he tried too hard to extend plays. He admitted some early errors after the game but once things clicked, this was an impressive display.
One minute into the second half, Sanders has time in the pocket but feels late pressure. He avoids the defender and scrambles to his right. On the run, he then throws a perfect 45-yard pass downfield hitting his receiver right in the hands. It’s a wonderful throw — as pretty as it was effective. This completion came on 3rd and 15. This is how a top-level playmaker operates.
He threw an excellent pass with 6:51 left in the third quarter. Moments earlier he’d seen a touchdown pass dropped. He stormed back by shifting to his left, reading what the defense was showing and when his running back uncovered in the end zone, he threw into a perfect area between three defensive players for the score.
In other schemes you see so many manufactured throws that are high percentage. Time and time again Sanders is reading the field, diagnosing and consistently throwing over the middle with poise and accuracy.
He had a two-point conversion where he scrambled around like Caleb Williams, shedding a tackle and extending the play, before improbably throwing an accurate pass across his body that was away from a diving defender and gave his receiver a chance. The wide-out couldn’t complete the pass but it was pure magic from Sanders.
He did take some avoidable sacks in the game and he needs to work on that. Overall though, his stock continues to blossom and he’s an exciting talent.
Tyler Van Dyke (Miami) vs Texas A&M
TVD (as I will call him in this piece) burst onto the scene in 2021 and warranted first round projections going into 2022. However, there was always a fear that the wretched Mario Cristobal system would bring him back down to earth. So it proved a year ago. His 2022 season was a mess.
It was pleasing to see him play so aggressively in this game against a reasonable opponent. This was more like the 2021 version of TVD — showing off a big arm, skill as a passer and the ability to take over a game.
On his first drive on a key third down, he settles down in the pocket and throws a dart with impressive anticipation. He steps into the throw and delivers before the receiver gets into his break to come back to the QB. The throw is right on time and is on the receiver’s grill but he drops the pass. Nevertheless, this was next-level anticipation from the quarterback.
He had a wonderful throw right down the right hash with 4:30 left in the first quarter on his third series. TVD shows good base, he splits the defence with a perfect in-stride throw allowing major YAC and a huge gain. It’s a tremendous play.
When he’s given time and is in attack-mode, TVD can be deadly. With 11:13 left in the second quarter he threw downfield from his own 40-yard-line from the right hash to the left sideline, completing a perfect pass on the 15 yard line. The touch and placement on the pass is ideal and allows the receiver to make the completion and run-in for a score.
He led a good drive right before half-time to take the lead, with another textbook throw to the left sideline placed into an area where only his receiver can make the catch. Then he finished things off with seconds to spare nailing a pass on the run into the end zone.
As with Shedeur Sanders, he has no problem throwing an out to the left. The arm strength and anticipation is there.
There’s evidence of him coming off receivers when he doesn’t like the read, hitching, re-setting and then firing a strike over the middle.
He iced the game with a beautiful 3rd and 8 throw downfield to the right sideline, hitting his receiver in stride for a big gain and thanks to some awful A&M tackling, the receiver managed to break into the open-field and score.
This is the TVD we came to really rate the season before last. He looks confident and poised. He’s attacking opponents and working over the defense. For a big guy he can move around a little to create. He looked like a legit NFL prospect in this game where he finished 21/30 passing for 374 yards and five touchdowns. He would’ve had six touchdowns but for a drop in the end zone by a receiver on a ball lofted in-behind the coverage to the back of the central end zone area.
Michael Penix Jr (Washington) vs Tulsa
Tulsa put up very little resistance but you can only beat what’s in front of you and Penix Jr showed easy arm strength as usual. I’m smitten with his arm and it’s one of the best you will ever see. He also has fantastic weapons and knows how to get the ball to them — so it’s an explosive and fun offense to watch.
Penix did throw a poor interception with 13:57 left in the first half. He’s moving around too much in the pocket and then he just lazily overthrows the ball into the end zone. I’m not sure the receiver properly tracks it in the air (the broadcasters wondered whether he was interfered with) but it just screamed ‘trusting his arm too much’. He’s clearly got one of the best arms in America but you can’t lose concentration and just trust that everything’s going to come off. It’s a poor pick. I said last week he needs to get the interception numbers down from eight this year, playing in this scheme. This was careless. He also had some overthrown deep-ball’s early last week too so it’d be nice to see him clean things up in the coming weeks.
I love the way he can throw from different angles and still generate obscene arm strength throwing off his back-foot. I’m curious how surgical he can be — and not just trust his arm — when he needs to play in a far less comfortable scheme in the NFL. This is a very open, limited read system where he’s throwing to NFL receivers against substandard college DB’s. Yet the arm talent is as good as anyone in the game — NFL or college. That’s how special his arm is. The question mark for me is purely about being able to mix in a proper pro-game-plan to complement the obvious big-play ability he’s going to possess.
He seemed to hurt his non-throwing right hand making a tackle after a fumble by Jalen McMillan. Hopefully this isn’t anything too serious.
Penix throws comfortably over the middle and isn’t a check-down machine. It was one thing that was so impressive about this group of QB’s last weekend — their willingness and skill to throw over the middle.
A great example of his unreal arm talent was a side-arm throw from his own 12-yard line, placed between two defenders with great velocity and accuracy, for a significant gain on a first and 10 to ignite a drive. Then he was able to launch from his own 35-yard-line to the opponents 20 with perfect touch and timing — again between two defenders.
Physical traits matter in the NFL and Penix Jr’s sensational arm talent will have the attention of a lot of people in the NFL.
Drake Maye (North Carolina) vs Appalachian State
I watched this game mixed in with Washington/Tulsa. UNC played quite poorly and relied on Maye to bail them out. He was far from perfect but he produced in big, key moments to drive his team to victory. This included an improvised chest-pass to convert a third down and numerous creative situations where he extended plays. He showed off a great arm to lead several drives in the second-half and deserved a game-winning moment when he put-together a last-gasp drive (only for the kicker to miss the field goal, sending it to OT — although UNC still won).
I remain unconvinced that he’s the top-five lock many believe but this was a first-round QB performance, dragging his team over the line when they could’ve easily dropped this one. He clearly has physical tools, creative qualities and natural talent. It just feels like he needs to clean a few things up. This was basically an example of Maye vs Appalachian State though — and it’s good to see he can lead his team in that kind of situation.
Riley Leonard (Duke) vs Lafayette
He just looks completely legit. Great size and arm. Yes he played a weaker opponent than Clemson this week but he throws a pretty ball and I think he just needs more game experience to settle down in the pocket.
He did have a generous PI flag go his way. It was an under thrown deep-ball that caught out the defender and as he tried to adjust to the ball, the contact was made and the flag was thrown. How often do you see this in the modern NFL — QB’s bailed out by PI on underthrown passes? Either way, he did little else wrong on an easy afternoon.
He sprayed passes to all levels and showed off arm strength and talent. He didn’t have any crazy touchdown runs this week but he still made a defender miss before half-time. He led a really nice drive to get a field goal before the break (it was missed). Leonard, as with the other QB’s, is very comfortable throwing over the middle.
The conditions deteriorated in the second half and Leonard didn’t play much with the game secured. There’s no doubt in my mind though that he has first round potential. He’s a tremendous athlete with a good arm and he’s off to a good start this year.
Spencer Rattler (South Carolina) vs Furman
South Carolina let Furman linger for a half but right before half-time, Rattler dragged him team into a comfortable position. One downfield score gave the Gamecocks the lead and then with 23 seconds remaining he scrambled to his right and threw downfield on the run from his own 18-yard line. The ball travelled 58-yards through the air and was caught by the receiver for a huge gain. This was a wonderful example of Rattler’s easy arm strength, immense playmaking ability and next level talent. He finished the drive by throwing a touchdown to the left pylon with three seconds remaining.
With 10:05 left in the third quarter, Rattler threw from his own four-yard line with perfect loft, trajectory, placement and velocity to a receiver who caught the ball on the opponents’ 45-yard-line. It’s a wonderful 51-yard pass. Rattler’s arm is a sight to behold. It’s a first round arm.
Shortly after, he faced pressure on 3rd and 8 and threw downfield from his own 48-yard line. The ball sails perfectly to the goal-line for a huge 1v1 catch to the receiver who makes the grab for a touchdown. This was a masterclass in deep-ball throwing from Rattler. Where would South Carolina be without him?
On this showing he has a chance to go in round one. The talent is now matched-up to a good attitude, work-rate and understanding of his role on the team. He is in control and he’s turning into a top, top player.
Bo Nix (Oregon) vs Texas Tech
I’ve watched a chunk of Nix’s throws from this game but not every throw. There’s no doubt he has a good arm, plus athleticism and he’s managing the Oregon offense in a way he was never able to at Auburn.
That said, the offense feels very safe. There are a lot of check-downs and dump-offs. There are a lot of easy completions. I’ve no idea why the refs took an interception that appeared clear and obvious off the board late in the game, when Nix tried too hard to make a play and threw an ill-advised pass into the end zone when already in field goal range.
I struggle to muster that much excitement for Nix. There’s no reason to have him graded lower than the third round range. Yet I don’t think there’s anything, currently, that makes you want to crave him as the future franchise QB. Not with other options available that feel more appealing without the prior SEC/Auburn performance baggage.
He is a good athlete with a decent arm and he is managing things well for Oregon. They click because he is leading the offense nicely. Yet there are several QB’s I would say I prefer in this class.
Jordan Travis (Florida State) vs Southern Miss
This was another strong showing from Travis. He was creative, scrambling to make opportunities. He throws over the middle well and clearly can jump through progressions. He wasn’t helped by a series of dropped catches early in the game but generally he was accurate, athletic and poised. He lacks the big, physical tools of others in this class but he is giving off solid third-round vibes with the way he has started this season and he has the upside to shift into round two.
This article involved the watching of many college football games over two days, followed by tape review on Monday, compiling of notes and proof-reading. If you enjoy the blog and want to support content like this — why not contribute to running costs via Patreon — (click here)