Seattle bound?
Quarterbacks and Will Anderson the key at #5
For weeks I’ve thought it’s been about Will Anderson or Anthony Richardson for Seattle. I think they are the two players they have been most focused on as this process has developed. The only question is whether C.J. Stroud also comes into contention, now that he isn’t expected to go in the top-four.
I think the media has missed a trick covering the Seahawks this draft season. From the minute they executed the Russell Wilson trade, I think it has been John Schneider’s intention to draft a young quarterback for the future. An excellent half-a-season from Geno Smith was never going to change that and they can’t bank on him being a long term solution. That’s why they structured his contract the way they did. He’s essentially turned into a well paid bridge, which is good for player and team.
Schneider is traits driven at the position. From the Charlie Whitehurst trade to Russell Wilson and then the reported interest in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. This quarterback class isn’t flawless but it has always felt tailor made for Schneider. Big, strong, mobile, athletic passers with high upside. That’s what he likes.
Anderson has the character traits the Seahawks are emphasising, not to mention big production at Alabama and he can be an impact player for the front seven. He is a clean player with no injury flags. The expectation would be he can start immediately and contribute, even if he lacks the magic of a Bosa brother or Myles Garrett.
I wouldn’t completely rule out Tyree Wilson given Richard Sherman’s hint that they’re switching back to the old defensive scheme but I think the #5 pick will come down to Anderson or Richardson and potentially Stroud.
This is my best guess on how Seattle views the top-five options, assuming Bryce Young is the #1 overall pick and the Colts select Will Levis at #4:
1a) Will Anderson
1b) Anthony Richardson
3) C.J. Stroud
They won’t take Jalen Carter
This is the final time we have to touch on this before the draft. Here’s what it comes down to. Over the last 12 months, Carroll and Schneider have spent considerable time talking about re-establishing what a ‘Seahawk’ is. They put their success in the 2022 draft down to a focus on character ‘without compromise’.
Reportedly the Seahawks did not consider Kayvon Thibodeaux in round one a year ago. Carter’s list of flags is far more extensive. These are all quotes from NFL scouts in Bob McGinn’s explosive article discussing Carter:
Carter lied to police about his proximity to the crash. In mid-March, he pleaded no contest to two misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and racing. He was sentenced to 12 months on probation and ordered to pay a fine, perform community service and attend a safe-driving course.
“That was all about half lies, half-baked truths,” said an executive in personnel for an NFL team. “The championship is over so he’s out from under their purview and he’s racing on the streets of Athens and people get killed. He had to lie like a dog at the combine. And there’s not one person there at Georgia that will endorse him. What are the red flags here?”
Enraged though they might be about that tragedy not to mention Carter’s ticket in September for driving 89 mph in a 45-mph zone, teams now must make a multi-millionaire business/football decision about a controversial player that remains eligible for the draft.
“His football character’s a mess,” said one evaluator. “You can’t compromise football character. If they don’t love football and they don’t know how to work, it’s going to be hard for them to become who they should become.”
Another scout said Carter had demonstrated to him during his three-year career that he didn’t love football and didn’t love the weight room. His conditioning became such an issue at Georgia that the coaches put him on the treadmill almost daily.
“They haven’t found a person yet at Georgia that wasn’t relieved that the season ended and he was gone,” said a seventh scout. “Not one. What’s ironic about it is Georgia would have won the national championship without him but they would not have won it without Stetson Bennett. And he’s so far down the rail we’re not even talking about him.”
I think the media and fans alike mistakenly view Pete Carroll as someone who is prepared to take on any lost soul and make it work. That isn’t true. Whether it’s Bruce Irvin, Frank Clark, Richard Sherman, Marshawn Lynch or several others — nobody ever questioned their love for the game and effort on a football field.
The above quotes paint a picture of someone who is the antithesis of Carroll’s famous ‘always compete’ mantra. While the talent will be enticing to all 32 teams, I suspect the majority will grudgingly take the position that Carter is best left to be someone else’s gamble.
A final point. The Seahawks have already been burned by the Malik McDowell experience. The point of raising this isn’t necessarily to compare the two players, although there are similarities. Both were physically brilliant defenders with rare traits, with Drew Rosenhaus acting as agent and cheerleader. McDowell never played a down for the Seahawks because in the long, unmanaged period between rookie mini-camp and training camp, he had an ATV accident.
The concept of Seattle being the team to guarantee Carter $30m before waving him off for the summer seems fanciful at best, mostly because they keep saying they are learning from past mistakes. You can’t lock Carter in the VMAC. He’ll be a newly minted free man. Of all the teams who are willing to take on the inevitable sleepless nights between May and July, hoping Carter is working on his conditioning and not doing stuff he shouldn’t be, the Seahawks feel like one of the least likely to do that.
Two of my first three mocks paired Carter with Seattle. I wish the character flags weren’t as extensive as they are. Guess what? So do the Texans and Cardinals. My opinion that the Seahawks won’t take him has been shaped by the evidence and information that has emerged over the last few months. If I’m wrong, I’ll own it. I think one of the reasons they made such a big splash to land an impact pass rusher in Dre’Mont Jones is because it was never their intention to take Carter in round one.
A quarterback in round one is extremely viable
I agree with Todd McShay that the Seahawks might pivot to Hendon Hooker at #20 if they don’t take a quarterback at #5.
It’s not what I would do personally but it comes back to what I said earlier. I think they’ve deliberately set up a situation where they have a viable bridge solution at quarterback for 2023 and possibly 2024 — but they’re on the look-out for a longer term option.
Hooker, just like the top-four, has the traits Schneider covets. I think some teams will grade him close to the quarterbacks who will go in the top-10 and thus, in that mid-to-late first range, they might be willing to take him.
I appreciate the Seahawks have spoken about not wanting to reach to fill specific needs but in terms of their grading — it might not be a reach on their board to go QB/DE or DE/QB. They might think the stars align to do that.
I wouldn’t be shocked if they took Will Anderson at #5 if he’s available and then selected Hooker at #20 or with a move back into the first round from #37.
That said, I think a few teams have been targeting Hooker in that #20-40 range. I wonder if some who were plotting a trade back into the first round, may now be preparing to simply take him in round one to make sure they get him. Tennessee (local hero), Houston, Washington, Detroit, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Minnesota. There’s enough buzz out there to think he’ll go in the teens, even if originally the most likely bet looked like someone trading into the back-end of the first to secure Hooker with a fifth-year option.
What will they do at #20?
I have a really strong sense that Will McDonald is going to be a big target for the Seahawks. He ticks so many boxes for them. He has the burst and quickness to attack the edge with venom. His balance and bend around the arc is the best I’ve seen since starting this blog in 2008. He has fantastic length. He’s a gritty, fierce competitor — highlighted by his willingness to play in an unfavourable position in the Iowa State scheme, compete at the Senior Bowl and do drills at the combine despite suffering with flu.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they view McDonald as the best ‘EDGE’ rusher in the draft. When you watch him beat Darnell Wright multiple times at the Senior Bowl, then watch Will Anderson struggle against the same opponent on film, they might not be alone in that assessment.
I think he could be Seattle’s answer to Brian Burns. It’s another reason why I think they might be fully prepared to draft a quarterback at #5, knowing they can get McDonald at #20.
This very much feels like a luxurious position to be in, knowing you have picks #37 and #52 still to come. They can make the most of it and go BPA. Aside from McDonald, they could also tap into a great tight end class. Michael Mayer could be the next Zach Miller in Seattle, while Dalton Kincaid also has his fans in the top-25. With Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson out of contract in 2024 — and with Fant’s $6.5m salary appearing movable to create much-needed cap space this year — it shouldn’t be a shock if they draft a tight end at #20.
If they are switching defensive schemes, Myles Murphy could also be an option. The Seahawks love big-time athletes with his kind of size. They were reportedly fans of Rashan Gary in 2019 and Murphy is similar in many ways. I just wonder whether he’s too inconsistent on tape and whether he has enough ‘dog’ in him to excel in the pro’s.
Lukas Van Ness is another option if they are turning back to the old scheme. He could play inside/out and has the athletic profile they like at the position.
I think they’ll rate Adetomiwa Adebawore very highly. He has rare physical traits (always a plus in Seattle) to go with excellent character. His performance at the Senior Bowl will have been noticed and the Seahawks might see him as a versatile chess piece, not too dissimilar to Dre’Mont Jones.
I’d like to say Calijah Kancey could also be an option as BPA at #20 but his lack of length makes me hesitant. The Seahawks have always placed a lot of focus on length for the defensive line. That said, Kancey is just so dynamic and explosive and having had to face Aaron Donald for so many years, Seattle knows the benefit of rolling the dice on a player like this.
The center position is also one to keep an eye on. The Seahawks sent Steve Hutchinson to work-out John Michael Schmitz and Joe Tippmann. Both are projected to go in the top-40. Seattle could trade down from #20 and select either, securing their interior O-line for the long-term. It’s also worth remembering that a year ago they tried to trade up from #40. Don’t be surprised if they go BPA at #20 (or after a small trade down) and then trade up from #37 to make sure they get one of the consensus top two centers. They could also trade down from #20 and take a center in the late first.
When will they bolster their interior D-line?
I think this is an area to be targeted between rounds 2-4. The Seahawks have only used one high pick on a defensive tackle before — Jarran Reed in 2016. I don’t think they will force this need, particularly with Shelby Harris and Poona Ford still available as post-draft options.
It won’t be a surprise if one of #37 or #52 is spent on Keeanu Benton, Mazi Smith
or Zacch Pickens. All fit the bill in terms of length, agility testing and mentality. I am a big fan of Alabama’s Byron Young and think his personality and character is comparable to Red Bryant, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if they focus on him too — possibly in the late second or early third round. Mississippi State’s Cameron Young continues to fly under the radar and could be an attractive one-technique.
Keion White and Bryan Bresee are more suited to the 3-4 system if they keep it. Both are athletic enough to fit the profile — although Bresee’s arm-length and consistency could be a concern.
Will they take a receiver early?
Virtually every national mock draft has them taking a receiver at #20. I’m not buying it. I don’t think the value is there and I think this is an overrated receiver class.
The two players I think they will like early are Josh Downs and Jonathan Mingo. Downs reminds me so much of Tyler Lockett — dynamic, quick, exceptionally mature with A+ character, high-points brilliantly for his size and ultra-productive. Mingo is finally getting national attention and he’s a brilliant ‘big slot’ with soft hands, outstanding size and athleticism and he’s a fierce blocker in the running game.
If both players go a bit too early for Seattle (I think they’ll both go between #30-45) I think this is a position they’ll wait on, perhaps targeting a Tyler Scott or Charlie Jones at the start of day three.
Pay attention to trends
Every year we highlight Seattle’s preferences in our combine preview. Here’s a reminder of things to look out for…
Defensive tackle
Focus on length (+33 inch arms) and agility testing (short shuttle). Some key times to note in the shuttle — Calijah Kancey (4.36), Adetomiwa Adebawore (4.26), Bryan Bresee (4.38), Keeanu Benton (4.65), Zacch Pickens (4.62). John Schneider played down the value of the nose tackle position, so they might take a bid-bodied space eater later on to fill that need.
Defensive end/pass rush
Twitch is the name of the game here, with the 10-yard split and short shuttle appearing important. Here are some split times of note: Nolan Smith (1.52), Yaya Diaby (1.56), Derick Hall (1.59), D.J. Johnson (1.59), Tyrus Wheat (1.59), Will Anderson (1.61), Byron Young (1.62), Lukas Van Ness (1.64).
As for shuttle times:
Derick Hall — 4.20
Will McDonald — 4.22
Myles Murphy — 4.29
Andre Carter — 4.29
Jose Ramirez — 4.30
Lukas Van Ness — 4.32
Felix Anudike-Uzomah — 4.34
Linebacker
They’ve often sought big-time athletes at this position, or players who run a tremendous short shuttle (Cody Barton — 4.03, Ben Burr-Kirven — 4.09). Nobody ran that well at the combine and overall, it’s hard to identify true ‘Seahawk’ linebackers in this group. If they draft one, it might be down to mentality rather than profile — putting the likes of Dorian Williams, Daiyan Henley, Henry To’oto’o, DeMarvion Overshown and Ventrell Miller in the mix.
Cornerback
They’ve gone away from the typical ‘size/length’ approach but there are strong options with the classic Carroll profile — including Julius Brents, Kelee Ringo, Cory Trice, Rezjohn Wright and a wildcard — possible safety convert Jay Ward. However, quick and physical cornerbacks are now not automatically ruled out if they are shorter and smaller.
Safety
There’s a real mix of physical profiles in the players they’ve taken, making safety one of the tougher positions to project. There’s a whole collection of tough, physical, alpha leaders in this class which should appeal.
Quarterback
A big arm, mobility, the ability to throw on the run, ideal size. They’re looking for traits and that’s where the 2023 class delivers.
Wide receiver
We have years of data to show that unless you run a 4.4 or faster, the Seahawks are unlikely to consider you until the later rounds (if at all). They value speed and suddenness at the position even if you’re a ‘bigger’ receiver.
Tight end
Agility testing connects all of the tight ends Seattle has drafted, signed or acquired in the Carroll/Schneider era. On top of that, we’ve identified that the elite TE’s in the league all pair a strong short shuttle and/or three-cone with a good 10-yard split. This is a very strong year at the position:
Darnell Washington — 1.57 (10), 4.08 (ss)
Zack Kuntz — 1.57 (10), 4.12 (ss)
Brenton Strange — 1.57 (10), 4.46 (ss)
Luke Schoonmaker — 1.59 (10), 4.27 (ss)
Tucker Kraft — 1.59 (10), 4.29 (ss)
Sam LaPorta — 1.59 (10), 4.25 (ss)
Michael Mayer — 1.66 (10), 4.44 (ss)
Offensive line
Short shuttle is key at center, which is why John Michael Schmitz (4.56), Luke Wypler (4.53) and Joe Tippmann (reported 4.31) are on our radar. Seattle’s current guards are big and strong explosive testers. Peter Skoronski (3.37), Andrew Vorhees (3.26), Anthony Bradford (3.17) and Chandler Zavala (3.01) all scored well in our TEF formula (measuring explosive traits). Other players with incomplete testing results project to be explosive, including Blake Freeland (3.60), Jon Gaines (3.26), Jaelyn Duncan (3.20), Sidy Sow (3.13), Earl Bostick (3.12), Tyler Steen (3.11), Braeden Daniels (3.05), Wanya Morris (3.04), Cody Mauch (3.01) and Broderick Jones (3.00). The Seahawks are also continuing to transition to the Rams blocking scheme, which features converted tackles playing guard. This could bring a player like Jordan McFadden into play.
Running back
The Seahawks have a type at running back. They’ve consistently drafted players with a similar physical profile. Their runners are about 210-220lbs. They have explosive testing results (good vertical & broad jump). It’s made it fairly straight forward to figure out who they might like.
Quick-hitting notes
— The perception is the Seahawks have a lot to do on defense. That’s true. One thing to remember though — they’ve already added big name players at every level of their defense at a cost. Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed up front, Bobby Wagner at linebacker and Julian Love in the secondary. There’s still work to be done but it’s indicative of a team not feeling forced into a corner with any of their picks. Plus they’ve always backed themselves to find contributing defensive tackles. It’s not their fault that the one super talented DT to enter the league in years will be deemed undraftable by many clubs due to character flags.
— They will draft one or possibly two running backs. I think this is more likely to be a mid-to-late round focus. Zach Charbonnet, Israel Abanikanda, Kendre Miller, Roschon Johnson, Chase Brown, Chris Rodriguez and Tank Bigsby would appear to be in the ball-park for what they look for (size, explosive traits).
— On top of a center, I do think another mid-round pick will be spent on the guard position. I am a big fan of Chandler Zavala and think he will have a big appeal to the Seahawks (and other teams) on day two. Anthony Bradford, Emil Ekiyor Jr and Jordan McFadden could be very attractive options in round four. I think adding competition at guard will be a key target.
— It’s not a good year at linebacker and I think that’s why they aggressively pursued Wagner and Devin Bush. They could take a mid or late-round depth option. Pete Carroll had a personal front-row seat at Henry To’oTo’o’s pro-day. That’s something to remember. I think they’ll like the violence and quickness of Dorian Williams and Daiyan Henley. There’s very little to get excited about though.
— It’s a loaded cornerback class and the Seahawks will have ample opportunity to add one of their guys. Julius Brents will likely go too early but Cory Trice and Rezjohn Wright feel like good options. I also think LSU safety Jay Ward is perfectly placed to transition to cornerback for Seattle. I’m interested to see if their approach at cornerback has changed this year, after seemingly being prepared to draft Derek Stingley or Sauce Gardner in the top-10 a year ago. I suspect if a top, top corner on their board was available at #20, #37 or #52 — they might consider it.
— It feels inevitable the Seahawks will draft a safety to replace Ryan Neal. This is a class full of tough, physical alpha’s and they will like that. Ji’Ayir Brown, JL Skinner, Sydney Brown, Jammie Robinson, Jay Ward, Jason Taylor, Christopher Smith, Jartavius Martin, Jordan Howden, Jerrick Reed. There’s a lot to like here. There’s also a plausible scenario where Brian Branch is BPA with one of their early picks.
— The Seahawks always want to compete and contend. However, I also think they’re being patient and realistic. This is year two of a rebuild. I suspect, by next week, we’ll see that they’ve been able to set the table for the future while also adding some impact players for 2023. Certain needs might not be taken in the range some people want. They frequently say their focus is ‘best player available’. This is all good news. This isn’t about simply improving the team for the upcoming season. It’s about setting up the team to be good for a long time. I think, at times, people lose sight of that.
Confirmed official-30 visits
Dawand Jones (T)
Jammie Robinson (S)
Jordan Howden (S)
Jerrick Reed II (S)
Braeden Daniels (G)
Byron Young-TEN (EDGE)
Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE)
Yaya Diaby (EDGE)
Anthony Bradford (G)
Jordan McFadden (G)
Jalen Carter (DT)
Calvin Avery (DT)
Trenton Simpson (LB)
Drake Thomas (LB)
Jartavius Martin (S)
Charlie Jones (WR)
Nick Herbig (LB)
Robert Cooper (DT)
Jake Andrews (C)
Tyler Steen (G)
Garrett Williams (CB)
B.J. Ojulari (EDGE)
Will McDonald (EDGE)
Will Anderson (EDGE)
Devon Witherspoon (CB)
Lukas Van Ness (DE)
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