Month: April 2023 (Page 3 of 5)

Adam Schefter joined 97.5 The Fanatic’s The John Kincade Show this week and offered some interesting thoughts on Jalen Carter’s likely draft position:

“When you talk to people around that Georgia program, they say that one guy – maybe the one guy – that kept Jalen Carter really in line was Jordan Davis. When he was around Jordan Davis, he was on some of his best behavior. Philly would have that advantage, bringing Carter to Philly and having Jordan Davis as a guy that could help out there.

He’s the guy in this year’s draft that, outside of the quarterbacks, is really fascinating and intriguing to see. What happens to this all-world talent and who is the one that turns in the pick on him? I’ll say this, I think there’s a decent chance that the Eagles are the team that has that decision to make here.”

The reason I wanted to raise this in a new, separate post is to provide some counter perspective to the recent stuff from Peter King — who reported the league consensus is that Carter will be taken fifth overall. It’s important to acknowledge King’s report, which we have, but it’s also worth drawing attention to this from Schefter.

Let’s be clear — he’s not ruling out Carter to the Seahawks, Cardinals, Lions, Raiders or anyone else picking before the Eagles. However, this line is telling:

“What happens to this all-world talent and who is the one that turns in the pick on him? I’ll say this, I think there’s a decent chance that the Eagles are the team that has that decision to make here.”

Essentially, Schefter is saying there’s a ‘decent chance’ he’s still on the board at #10. That’s a far cry from the ‘won’t get past Seattle and Detroit’ talk we’re increasingly seeing.

This is what I’ve felt for some time. Howie Roseman is the perfect GM to take a chance on Carter. He already has a Super Bowl roster. There’ll be no blowback if he takes Carter with a bonus top-10 pick and he busts. Eagles fans will appreciate taking the shot. When you’re already the top team in the NFC, there’s nothing to lose.

Philadelphia has a quarterback, an O-line, weapons on offense and a pass rush. They have more or less a complete roster and just need to fill in some gaps. They can draft Carter to be part of an already excellent rotation as the heir apparent to Fletcher Cox. They can use him as an impact situational player in year one, without the pressure to come in, play lots of snaps and dominate which would be prevalent in Seattle. They could do with Carter in 2023 what they did with Jordan Davis in 2022.

Having New Orleans’ first round pick this year (what on earth were the Saints thinking a year ago?) is a total gift to the Eagles and one they can take a risk with.

Even though the Seahawks and Lions also have extra first round picks, they are in a very different position. The most obvious being neither came close to the Super Bowl but also, both franchises are in building mode. They can ill-afford for their top-10 picks to bust.

Seattle and Detroit also have two very distinctive coaches. One preaches competition, the other introduced himself to the fans by announcing at his opening press conference:

“We’re gonna stand up, and it’s gonna take two more shots to knock us down. And on the way up, we’re gonna take your other kneecap, and we’re gonna get up, and it’s gonna take three shots to get us down. And when we do, we’re gonna take another hunk out of you.”

As I keep saying, I’m not sure these quotes from anonymous scouting sources via Bob McGinn quite chime with either coach:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.” Was a 5-star recruit from Warren Sapp’s hometown of Apopka, Fla. “Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader.

I listened this week to a podcast featuring Jim Monos, former Director of Player Personnel for the Bills. He had this to say about Carter, reacting to McGinn’s report:

“That’s a trigger word, ‘doesn’t love football’. ‘Treadmill’ — that means weight issues. You really should just move on. It’s tempting, because of the size/speed. You have to move on. Let somebody else be the hero. I would let somebody else be the hero. It would be a luxury pick for a team. A top-10 pick? You have to love football. You have to be productive, you have to be ready to play right away. It’s a hard no, it’s an easy hard no almost. Especially at defensive tackle.”

I appreciate I’m running the risk of creating a hill to die on. I’ve laboured this point so much now, I’m probably boring a lot of the wider community while irritating people who do want to consider Carter.

I just feel like a perspective needs to be offered that isn’t being discussed much elsewhere. If I have to come on here and eat crow next week, that’s fine. I’m happy to do it. As I’ve said in recent streams, I’m only trying to project based on the evidence we have. I won’t regret trying to offer some balance to the endless ‘Carter to Seattle’ chatter that often doesn’t go beyond ‘Pete will love this guy!’ and ‘ideal Seahawk!’. If they do draft him, I’ll take my lumps and then analyse what he will bring and how they can get the best out of him.

I do think the perceived fit is based on flimsy anecdotal evidence. “Carroll loves to take a chance on players” — well yeah, if they have high football character. A troubled soul has never been a turn-off for Carroll. He wants competitors though. I’m not sure “lazy”, “motor runs hot and cold”, “doesn’t love football” and “doesn’t love the weight room” are lines that scream ‘Carroll’s Seahawks’.

Even this line from Schefter sets off alarm bells: “When he was around Jordan Davis, he was on some of his best behavior.”

Some of his best behaviour? That’s the kind of thing I say about my nine-year-old and six-year-old.

Don’t get me wrong — every team that passes on Carter will shake their head as they do it and wonder what could’ve been. If he’d just been able to apply himself differently — and some of that isn’t all on him — teams could feel more comfortable taking him. There’s just too much going on — and will be too much going on — for some teams.

Again though, this isn’t a perspective you hear often. For example, Chris Simms brushed off any concerns on PFT yesterday. He acknowledged there were moments on tape where he looked tired or took plays off. His counter was to say teams in the NFL will monitor his snaps — ignoring the fact that Georgia did that for three years already. He put it down to the no-huddle nature of college football — yet teams in the NFL are more than capable of playing with tempo.

Simms called questions about his conditioning and football character ‘nitpicking’, which I think is fairly astonishing and makes for a non-serious review of the player. It’s very possible to acknowledge that Carter is a sensational talent in terms of when he brings it, it’s exciting to watch. But you can’t just dismiss the bad moments on tape, or the character concerns, or the practise habits, or the conditioning, or the pattern of mistakes that led to legal trouble.

I think this is why we have to acknowledge that Carter’s agent Drew Rosenhaus, for all his quirks, is so good at his job. He has created a narrative where everyone now assumes Carter will go early. As we edge closer to the draft, there actually seems to be media momentum behind Carter. That’s a far cry from his pro-day, where it was difficult to imagine what might happen to his stock.

People aren’t talking about any issues — they only focus on the positives. Rosenhaus has played an absolute blinder here with his ‘no meetings outside of the top-10’ idea while planting seeds around the media that he’s been assured by a team they’ll pick him early.

Even stuff like this tweet below is all part of the plan. It feels cringey and forced — but it’s effective. Rosenhaus has worked overtime for his client:

Tonight on #RealSports, NFL agent Drew Rosenhaus on his controversial top draft pick, University of Georgia star Jalen Carter. Stream it on @hbomax. pic.twitter.com/9D2lNQ6AOe

— Real Sports (@RealSportsHBO) April 18, 2023

Interestingly, Rosenhaus was also the agent for Malik McDowell, if that makes any difference. It might not but I wonder if Seattle, in attempting to learn from past mistakes, are one of the teams that are less likely to be swayed by this agent doing the lords work for his client.

People don’t like the McDowell/Carter comparison but it basically comes down to this. The Seahawks can’t babysit these players in the period between mini-camp and training camp. How do you force Carter to work on his conditioning? Or to live his life properly? Or to not continue his pattern of mistakes? All after you make him a top-five pick and guarantee him $30m — essentially sending the message that how you acted in the past was all OK. There are no consequences here. Only rewards.

McDowell did something reckless before his first training camp and that was that. With Carter, it might never be anything as serious as that. But is he going to train? Eat properly? Sleep properly? Live like a pro who is ‘pissed off for greatness’? You can make as many Aaron Donald comparisons as you want, Seahawks Twitter. Until Carter has Donald’s mindset and commitment to the game, he won’t get anywhere near his NFL performance.

A high-impact, disruptive defensive tackle would be so good to see in Seattle. But have they already made their move in that regard by spending big on Dre’Mont Jones? Could the plan now be to add reliable depth? Can the Byron Young, Zacch Pickens, Keeanu Benton, Mazi Smith types help add some ready-to-start, consistent, functioning play to complement the splash on Jones?

Eight days to go — and I apologise in advance for not being able to guarantee there won’t be eight more Jalen Carter articles.

What I can say is I’m going to be on the Cigar Thoughts podcast this week. I’m also recording with an Irish NFL podcast and Robbie, Adam and I will be doing a live stream on Thursday. I’m also working on a very interesting article I think you’ll like.

In the meantime, if you missed it — check out yesterday’s piece on why the Seahawks need to draft a quarterback and improve their D-line.

If you enjoy the blog and appreciate what we do — why not consider supporting the site via Patreon — (click here)

C.J. Stroud has become the key to the draft.

In the space of about two weeks he’s gone from betting favourite to be picked first overall to an unlikely selection at #2.

Adam Schefter doesn’t think the second quarterback will come off the board until #4. Michael Lombardi said at the weekend he thinks Chris Ballard and the Colts will rank Will Levis ahead of both Stroud and Anthony Richardson due to his greater readiness to start. Some betting markets are now ranking Levis as favourite to be the second QB selected. Chris Mortensen also recently said Levis wouldn’t get out of the top-five — I suspect because he thinks his floor is Indianapolis at #4.

It’s suddenly becoming very difficult to project where Stroud will go and therefore how the top-10 will shake out.

For example, if the Texans are not interested in Stroud at #2 and the Colts prefer Levis, that doesn’t really indicate a strong likelihood of anyone trading up. Indeed, as time goes on, it’s actually being said by people like Schefter that the Texans and Cardinals are going to have a hard time finding a deal.

Let’s say that’s the case. What then? Presumably Arizona goes defense. If Houston does the same and the Colts do take Levis, Stroud would be available at #5.

That would’ve been unthinkable a few weeks ago.

I wonder how fans feel about that prospect? There’s quite an aggressive, anti-QB sentiment among Seahawks fans — especially when it comes to Levis and Richardson. What about Stroud though? Typically seen as the first or second best quarterback in the class and capable of throwing with magnificent touch and accuracy, would even the most ardent QB-sceptics be against using the #5 pick to select him?

If one of the big knocks on Stroud is he needs to work out how to play outside of the Ohio State offense, learn how to make his own reads/adjustments and basically start from scratch — he would get that in Seattle, where there’s no pressure to start.

It would feel like a complete gift to the Seahawks and a truly worthwhile shot to take for the future of the franchise. Anyone who watched that Georgia game could see the magical potential Stroud has. Does he have plenty to work on? Absolutely. Yet it’s not often you get a chance to draft and develop a talent like this.

Personally I think it’d be a great position to be in, choosing between the upside of Stroud or the physical quality of Richardson to bring in and develop. I do think the Seahawks have taken a shine to Richardson in particular — but those thoughts were perhaps brewing when it was assumed Young and Stroud would be the top two picks.

There are also people who insist the Seahawks won’t draft a quarterback at #5. Lance Zierlein, for example, is fairly adamant about it whenever he’s asked. Michael Lombardi says he thinks they’ll take a defensive lineman. We’ve had Peter King’s report this week, noting most of the league expect Jalen Carter to be the fifth pick.

It wouldn’t surprise me if Zierlein’s adamance is warranted. I don’t think the quarterback pro-day visits were some elaborate smokescreen like some have suggested. You do your homework on all of these players. It is true, though, that the Seahawks haven’t done much to address their self-confessed biggest need of addressing the D-line. The Dre’Mont Jones signing was a shot in the arm but their current D-line talent and depth is a major worry.

I’m a little bit concerned that the Seahawks think they’re closer than they are. Bet MGM has them ranked 21st in their Super Bowl odds, level with the Carolina Panthers. People will point to the fact Seattle wasn’t fancied a year ago but fail to acknowledge they had one of the easiest schedules in the league and benefitted from the collapse of the Rams and Cardinals (four out of nine wins).

If the thought process is just add in some talented rookie defenders and bombs away, I think that’ll be incredibly short-sighted. This should be treated as the second year of a process, rather than anything akin to finishing touches. I believe those finishing touches are more likely to come in 12 months time.

For all the talk of ‘impact’ defensive linemen, we’ve seen with several players that it can take 2-3 years to reach your best performance. Travon Walker and Kayvon Thibodeaux weren’t game-wreckers last year and had 3.5 and four sacks respectively. It took Quinnen Williams a long time to adjust to the pro’s.

In Seattle they’ve tended to rotate in young defensive linemen rather than give them a lot of snaps. That might change for a top-five pick but it certainly didn’t for the #40 pick last year, with Boye Mafe losing snaps to Bruce Irvin despite near-identical PFF grades for their play.

I’m wary of #5 being spent on a Tyree Wilson type who doesn’t come flying out of the traps and/or never reaches top-level potential. Meanwhile, the coaches struggle to produce a coherent and consistent defense (as has been the case for a few years now). Meanwhile, Geno Smith plays more like he did in the second half of last season making a minimum cap hit of $31.2m next year a serious question mark.

What happens then? You neither have a great defense or a contracted quarterback on your roster, or a long-term future at that position.

This is why I think it’s incredibly likely the Seahawks will draft a quarterback, it’s just a question of when.

They do, 100%, need to improve their defense. Yet they can’t run the risk of Geno not being a long term option. His end to last season can’t be ignored. He had too many turnover-worthy plays, as noted by Hugh Millen:

Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.

Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

If those turnover-worthy plays translate to real-world turnovers in 2023, it’s a problem. We all appreciate what Geno achieved last year and it was a real feel-good story. Yet it’s far too soon to declare him a bona fide long-term quarterback for this team. They know it too — which is why they have an ‘out’ on his contract next year.

If the Seahawks were forced to cut Smith to avoid his $31.2m salary in 2024, they would be faced with no viable quarterback option (short of re-signing Smith to a much smaller deal) and not having a top-five pick to do much about it. That would be a disaster that too many people are overlooking.

Thus, they need to draft someone who can realistically take over, if needed, in 2024 or 2025. Drew Lock isn’t that someone. He’s on a one-year backup contract. Clearly nobody else was offering him an opportunity to compete to start, or he wouldn’t be back in Seattle. If Smith plays all 17 games next year and simply doesn’t excel to warrant $31.2m, you’re not turning to Lock. Good luck selling that to the fanbase.

Neither can you bank on the next quarterback class providing the answer. Sometimes I think people just assume it’s easy to get the next big name being touted. There are only two ways to get them. Be bad enough to pick in the top-two or trade all of your stock for the next few years to move up (if you can even find a willing seller). Neither is appealing, especially when you already own a top-five pick this year.

A younger player with upside and potential is required as a longer term alternative to Smith. It’s just whether they spend the #5 pick on that role. I would 100% do it. I would rather invest more in a talented player than settle on a cheaper, lesser prospect. There’s no middle-class in this draft at quarterback. Anyone hoping for a mid-round or late-round flier, good luck with that. It’s basically a one-man option in Dorian Thompson-Robinson and I’m not convinced DTR, as much as I enjoyed watching him at UCLA, is a future starter in the league.

However, I can well imagine the Seahawks avoiding the quarterbacks at #5 in preference of taking a defender, yet still making sure they take a quarterback early.

It’s why I think there’s a very realistic possibility they go defense at #5 — irrespective of Stroud or Richardson being available — then take Hendon Hooker at the top of round two, or by trading back into the late first.

I would much prefer to take Stroud or Richardson (or Levis) and then add a defender in the 20’s if that’s the case. I appreciate Hooker has some appealing traits and excellent character — but that offense slays me every time. His highlights video is borderline farcical the number of times the commentator uses the words ‘wide open’ just as a throw is landing in the receiver’s hands.

Then there’s the age, the injury and I just don’t think he’s on the same level as the top-four. It’s not even that close for me. Hooker is akin to an Andy Dalton type and I would prefer to shoot for better than that.

I think it’s realistic though. I think they might do it. They need a young QB on this roster who is cheap, contracted for years and capable of developing to be a potential starter in 2024 or 2025 because there’s simply no guarantee you’ll want to pay Geno Smith $30m in either year.

They need an insurance plan. If they’re unwilling to make the #5 pick an insurance plan, it basically leaves Hooker.

So what do I think they’ll do?

I think they’ll be shaped by what happens between picks #1-4. I’ve thought for weeks that if Will Anderson lasts to #5 they’ll take him. In that situation, it increases the chances of them going in for Hooker — if available — later on. If Anderson is gone, I think they might pivot to a quarterback at #5 and then select a talented defender at #20 and/or #37.

This feels realistic. A couple of weeks ago many thought it possible the top-four could be all quarterbacks. Or, at the very least, three quarterbacks would go before Seattle’s pick. That made it viable Anderson could last. If that’s no longer the case, it seems logical they would at least consider the quarterbacks.

Of course many are just assuming the Seahawks will take Jalen Carter and that’s that. If they do, as I keep saying, I will own up to the fact I don’t think it will happen.

I was just thinking today, while reading a joint-mock draft between Mel Kiper and Todd McShay. You’re the Seahawks. You’ve drafted Carter. You’ve guaranteed him $30m the moment you select him. Then after mini-camp, you’re going to wave him off and say, ‘see you in training camp’.

How can you do that?

Only a year ago we highlighted how he identified conditioning as a priority last April, only to do nothing about it. As we saw at his pro-day and in the Ohio State and LSU games, his conditioning isn’t great. That’s probably an understatement. I’m going to guess he’s not been able to do much about that while travelling the country taking official visits over the last two weeks.

You need him in the gym during that mini-camp to training camp period. You need him watching his diet. Contrary to what people think, you can’t force him to stay in Seattle. You can’t force current or ex-players to babysit him. You can’t force him into the gym or to eat properly. He’ll be a free man, and rightly so, plus he’ll be newly minted thanks to the NFL contract that’s coming his way.

This is on top of the reported concerns over practise habits, how he takes to coaching, the pattern of mistakes made and the fact quotes like this, from anonymous scouts courtesy of Bob McGinn, don’t hint at a typical Pete Carroll player:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.” Was a 5-star recruit from Warren Sapp’s hometown of Apopka, Fla. “Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader. He’s phenomenally talented. He’s going to run like a deer. He’s the epitome of star or bust.”

And just like that, I’ve started talking about Jalen Carter again.

I think it’s unavoidable for another eight days while ever the talk of Seattle taking him is rife accompanied by the frustration that he is so talented and yet has the biggest list of concerns to consider I can ever recall.

That’s why I think some teams (Philadelphia) will salivate at taking the risk, knowing it’s a shot to nothing, while others (Arizona, Seattle, Las Vegas) are probably in a different place.

While most national mocks are pairing the Seahawks with Carter, Peter Schrager had them passing on him in his mock draft — where Seattle takes Anthony Richardson instead:

“The Seahawks love Geno Smith, and there’s no doubt he’s the man for 2023. But with two picks in the top 20, they can go with a quarterback here — after all, they surely don’t plan on picking in the top five again anytime soon. If another QB-needy team doesn’t leapfrog them, the ‘Hawks can secure a signal-caller for the future. Seattle has time to get Richardson in the room with coordinator Shane Waldron so that he can learn the offense.”

He also notes with Carter, who was taken sixth overall by the Lions:

“Elite player whose off-field/character questions could be a red flag for some teams.”

I appreciate the argument some people make that his talent keeps him in your mind because if it works out, the upside is incredible. I just think you have to be honest with yourself sometimes and be realistic. People say he’s Aaron Donald without realising Aaron Donald has an elite work-ethic and commitment to greatness. If Carter won’t be coached, won’t put the effort in and won’t work on his conditioning — if he essentially doesn’t love the game enough to be ‘pissed off for greatness’ — he’ll just be a wasted pick or someone who flashes from time to time. There are tons of fantastically talented players who never amount to anything because they aren’t willing to do what is common among all the greats — outwork your peers.

It’s why I think if Anderson is gone they’ll pivot to the QB’s at #5 then attack the defense with their nine remaining picks. If I’m totally wrong, and they are prepared to take Carter at #5, I’d probably put money on them targeting Hooker at some point.

I’ve never been against a defensive pick at #5. I know they have to improve their defense. We all do.

They still can’t go into next year without a long-term option at quarterback. They need someone in the background who can replace Geno Smith if needed. Otherwise they face a not unrealistic prospect of paying a quarterback $31.2m for average play, or having to part ways and having no contracted QB on the roster.

If they find themselves in that position next year, two years after the Russell Wilson trade, it would be a calamity. They wouldn’t be moving forward. They’d have a ton of question marks. Especially if the defense gets big investment and doesn’t reach a top level, which has to be a slight fear given the state of the defense since the LOB departed.

They need to invest in both areas — D-line and quarterback — to set this team up for the future. With 10 picks, that should be achievable.

They created the perfect baton-passing process with Geno’s contract. Now it’s time to capitalise on it.

If Anderson is off the board by #5 — but Stroud and Richardson are there — I personally hope they’re willing to go quarterback then defense at #20, #37 or both.

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Recently I said when someone like Chris Mortensen declares, emphatically, that ‘Bryce Young will be the #1 pick’ you have to pay attention. There was no hedging. As we sit here today, Young is now the established and fully expected pick for Carolina — despite weeks of debate about a Young vs C.J. Stroud option.

Now Adam Schefter has provided some information which is going to add so much intrigue to this draft:

.@AdamSchefter just bet @danorlovsky7 that two QBs won't be selected before the Colts at No. 4 overall 😳 🤝

"Indianapolis may be sitting there with its pick of the litter. Anthony Richardson, or Will Levis or C.J. Stroud. pic.twitter.com/BS3A1CjR14

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) April 17, 2023

What does that mean?

For starters, it’ll be interesting to see who the Texans and Cardinals are forced to select if they don’t move down. My guess would still be that Houston takes Will Anderson but given the hype around Tyree Wilson, it’s safe to assume Wilson either goes second or third overall.

I’d be surprised if the Cardinals took Jalen Carter because this is a franchise with a rookie Head Coach and a first-time GM, needing to launch a culture reset. I’m not convinced gambling on Carter will be the right move for them.

I noted on the blog some comments from Michael Lombardi over the weekend. A lot of what he said chimes with Schefter’s comments:

— Lombardi says by Wednesday or Thursday it’ll become ‘common knowledge’ that teams picking after Houston are doing their homework on C.J. Stroud. He adds, “I think Stroud is definitely going third or later”

— He thinks there’s lukewarm interest to trade up for a quarterback because all of the QB’s have flaws and teams won’t want to give up an asset to inherit a problem

— Lombardi says the Colts won’t trade up to #3

— Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1

— In terms of Stroud, Lombardi thinks he’s a better prospect than Justin Fields because he’s a technically superior player with greater anticipation. However, he believes the state of the Ohio State offense — where Stroud had to take his reads from the sideline — has not prepared the quarterback for the NFL

— Lombardi suggests the Texans will see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson as more of a ‘sure-thing’

— He certainly sounds sceptical that the Cardinals will be able to trade out of the #3 spot. That makes sense, given Adam Schefter’s tweet last week trying to drum up interest in the #3 pick

— Lombardi thinks it’ll go #1 Bryce Young and #2 Will Anderson. He tosses Jalen Carter in as a wildcard at #3

With all this information to hand, here are some thoughts and predictions…

Like I said earlier, I still think Will Anderson will be drafted before Tyree Wilson. If two defensive players go in the top-three, they are the pair I would probably expect. I wouldn’t rule out one of the top-two cornerbacks for Arizona but I suspect they’ll push that need into day two.

I think I’m going to lean on Lombardi and stick with Will Levis at #4 even if C.J. Stroud is available. As he said, Levis is the one who can start in 2023 and the Colts need someone who can do that. If the Texans are passing on Stroud at #2, I don’t think it’s that far fetched that Indianapolis would too. I’m not completely tied to that and it’s very possible the Colts just see a very talented player in Stroud they are prepared to take a chance on. Yet Levis — both physically and in terms of his readiness to play — feels like a better fit.

That could mean at #5 both Stroud and Anthony Richardson would be on the board. The consensus two top edge rushers would be gone. Peter King reported on Monday that many within the league expect Seattle to select Jalen Carter but I think by now most people are aware why I don’t think that’ll happen.

That said, Lance Zierlein has insisted the Seahawks won’t take a QB when asked about it. Lombardi also predicted they would take a pass rusher. It’s just hard to imagine who that would be if it isn’t Anderson or Wilson, unless they seriously considered Carter which, again, I’m very dubious of.

If Stroud lasted to #5 I think it’d be incredibly difficult for the Seahawks to pass on that opportunity. Without any pressure to start him immediately, it’d be an ideal chance to let a talented player sit for a year. It could, legitimately, start to look like the same kind of torch-passing between Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes. You can never compare anyone to Mahomes seriously — but there were flashes against Georgia where Stroud looked like him. There’s a long way to go from ‘looking like him’ to reaching even half of his NFL performance — but it’d be a tantalising prospect for the Seahawks to develop someone of Stroud’s quality.

I also think in this instance you’d still have to consider the incredible upside of Richardson.

If they are truly in a one-track mind for defense, it would potentially explain the official-30 visit for Devon Witherspoon. He might be next man up if Anderson and Wilson are gone defensively. Yet for all the talk of what a rare opportunity this is — and not wanting to pick here again any time soon — is a cornerback pick at #5 really going to be a thing? Especially with their track record at corner, with a deep corner class, a year removed from finding a stud in round five?

Wouldn’t you run the risk of not doing enough to properly address the defensive front, without setting up the future at quarterback either?

Things are getting interesting with just over a week to go and unlike the speculation about what teams will do from other sources — when someone like Schefter speaks with this degree of confidence and certainty, we should listen.

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Earlier today Peter King dedicated a chunk of his latest ‘Football Morning in America‘ article to draft speculation. This included stuff that’s become increasingly common. Bryce Young to the Panthers. Tyree Wilson potentially jumping Will Anderson. Draft Twitter liking Jaxon Smith-Njigba more than teams.

He then came onto everyone’s favourite subject. Jalen Carter and the Seahawks:

Lots of teams look at the fifth slot—Seattle, with Mr. Positive, Pete Carroll, as coach—and automatically think it’s a good shot. It may well be. Detroit, at six, and Chicago and Philly, at nine and 10, also seem to be in play. Who takes the risk on Carter, and who gambles on the potential reward, is going to be one of the big stories of round one.

King then added:

It’s become almost a cliché, how many team officials think the Seahawks will take Carter with the fifth overall pick.

I’ve already had people sending me tweets asking for reaction. My thoughts haven’t changed — and won’t change — based on what other teams think the Seahawks are going to do. I’ll recap why in a bit.

Firstly though, I wanted to highlight King’s 2022 mock draft a year ago — where he had the Seahawks taking Kayvon Thibodeaux after trading down:

*13. Seattle Seahawks: Kayvon Thibodeaux, edge, Oregon
*Projected Trade: Texans trade the 13th pick overall and an early third-round pick, 68th overall, to the Seahawks for the 9th selection.

Perfect Pete Carroll pick. Thibodeaux’s an LA kid, he’ll be supremely ticked off at not being the first edge off the board and falling this far, and Carroll knows how to feed into the mental game that fuels players. That, plus Thibodeaux would be the kind of top talent that the Seahawks never get to pick in the draft because they’re always picking at the bottom of the round, or later. Thibodeaux, if he works out, would be a good pick for a team devoid of a top-end pass-rusher, in a division with some serious passing games.

I’d like this pick, in this spot, for Seattle. I’m not alone. “Thibodeaux at 13 would be a coup for Seattle,” one GM told me Sunday when I apprised him of my diabolical plan to send the Oregon edge down the draft board.

Thibodeaux is described as a ‘perfect Pete Carroll pick’ and there’s a quote from a GM praising the fit. Here’s a quote 12 months later from Dave Wyman, co-host of the John Schneider show on 710 Seattle Sports, on Thibodeaux and the Seahawks:

“That was a guy that they just weren’t going to draft. Probably in the second round or at some point. That was just a guy they weren’t very high on”

So a year ago, Thibodeaux was the perfect pick. Ideal Carroll project. But the Seahawks, actually, had no interest. There’s a cautionary tale there.

Here are some anonymous scouting sources courtesy of a report from Bob McGinn discussing Thibodeaux a year ago:

“He’s the best pure pass rusher if he plays hard all the time and acts like he likes football,” said one scout. “Does he like playing in the NFL, or like the NFL lifestyle and what that entails? If you put Hutchinson’s heart in Thibodeaux’s body then you’d have Myles Garrett.”

Described by a fourth scout who interviewed him as “very opinionated, not afraid to speak his mind on what he’s seen in life and his perception of himself and the world.”

I get the sense there’s a narrative among teams and the media that the Seahawks are willing to take a chance on practically anyone. I think this is a mistake.

When the Seahawks drafted Frank Clark — in the late second round, it has to be said, not the top-10 — there was a concerning allegation of domestic violence attached to Clark. The Seahawks claimed they’d done extensive research on Clark and were comfortable taking him.

The thing is, nobody questioned Clark’s football character, passion for the game or work ethic. Was he a character concern? Yes, absolutely. But he was also a competitor and as we know, that is integral for Carroll.

Look at other players who were interesting characters, difficult personalities, outspoken, had baggage or an interesting background. Bruce Irvin, Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman. There are others. They were all 100% heart-and-soul types when it came to football.

Carroll could live with the challenge of coaching Lynch because when game-time came around, you knew you’d get every sinew from him.

I suspect the reason they were reportedly against drafting Thibodeaux is for the reasons mentioned above, that were widely reported at the time. Does he love the game? Are you going to get everything from him?

It certainly wasn’t a talent issue. So there had to be a reason and this is the information we have to work with.

There are similar questions lingering over Jalen Carter. From the reported poor practise habits, the way he hasn’t taken to coaching, the poor conditioning hinting at a questionable work ethic and application to his career, the feeling that he basically did what he wanted at Georgia in terms of attending meetings and workouts and the pattern of mistake-making that led to legal trouble.

Here’s what McGinn’s sources say about Carter:

“Doesn’t play hard like (Devante) Wyatt. That dude gave it his all. Carter’s motor runs hot and cold. He’s disruptive, but not overly productive. He’s a worrier for me. A lot of these Georgia dudes aren’t as good individually as they were as a whole. Travon Walker. They all were overrated because of how dominant that D was.”

“Best player in the draft but he’s lazy,” a third scout said. “They put him on the treadmill damn near every day. He doesn’t love football, doesn’t love the weight room. Horrible family background. Not a leader. He’s phenomenally talented. He’s going to run like a deer. He’s the epitome of star or bust.”

This is why I’ve been so confident in suggesting the Seahawks won’t take Carter. He is immensely talented, as is Thibodeaux. Yet I don’t think either are ‘Carroll guys’ as King and his sources imply. I think Carroll is always willing to give anyone a second, third or maybe even fourth chance. But you’ve got to fit the ‘always compete’ mantra. Based on what we’re hearing with Carter, as we heard from Thibodeaux, I don’t think there’s a match.

Look who they had in for a visit last week. Devon Witherspoon. A player who has had to clamber up from the JUCO routes and ‘no star’ recruiting status, has played a ton of snaps and shown rapid improvement for Illinois and when he gets on the field — despite being a smaller cornerback — he wants to hit you in the face and knock you on your arse.

That’s a Carroll guy. And if Witherspoon had a few quirky personality traits (I don’t know if he does or not) I doubt they’d take him off the board. His love for the game, his commitment to it and the way he plays is perfect for Seattle’s preferences.

I see that same approach from Will Anderson and the quarterbacks. Thus, I think at #5 there will be ample alternatives to Carter.

Someone will take Carter, just as someone was willing to take Thibodeaux early. I just don’t think it’ll be Seattle.

For the avoidance of any doubt my position remains the same as it’s been for several weeks. I think Will Anderson is probably their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board, I think there’s a very realistic chance they’ll take Anthony Richardson instead. C.J. Stroud potentially falling is something I need to spend some time thinking about. I think Will Levis is locked into the Colts at #4 and I don’t think the Seahawks will take Jalen Carter. If I’m wrong about Carter, I’ll own it.

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Michael Lombardi had some interesting things to say on VSiN this weekend. I’d recommend watching the whole video, which starts with a Rich Gannon interview. Eventually, Lombardi shares his betting advice (and therefore, his prediction) for the top picks.

Here are the highlights:

— Lombardi says by Wednesday or Thursday it’ll become ‘common knowledge’ that teams picking after Houston are doing their homework on C.J. Stroud. He adds, “I think Stroud is definitely going third or later.”

— He thinks there’s lukewarm interest to trade up for a quarterback because all of the QB’s have flaws and teams won’t want to give up an asset to inherit a problem. I think this is a fair point but it perhaps underestimates how much teams are willing to look at projection/upside plus need at the most important position. After all, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen had flaws too.

— Lombardi says the Colts won’t trade up to #3. I’ve never thought they would do either. Chris Ballard has clearly judged this class very similarly and has decided to pick whoever is there at #4 who he rates the highest.

— Lombardi predicts Ballard’s order for the QB’s is Will Levis, C.J. Stroud then Anthony Richardson. He then added it could be Richardson over Stroud. Either way, Levis is #1. Regulars will know I’ve been projecting Levis to the Colts for a long time and see it as an ideal fit. I think this is why Chris Mortensen said Levis won’t get out of the top-five. If you really study the class and the Colts, the #4 pick has felt like the floor for Levis (despite all those mocks two weeks ago having him dropping into the late first). Lombardi mentions that of Levis, Stroud and Richardson — Levis is the only player who can start a game in 2023. That’s the point of the projection.

— In terms of Stroud, Lombardi thinks he’s a better prospect than Justin Fields because he’s a technically superior player with greater anticipation. However, he believes the state of the Ohio State offense — where Stroud had to take his reads from the sideline — has not prepared the quarterback for the NFL. This is something we spoke a lot about during the season. However, personally, I felt like I saw enough against Georgia to believe he can excel as a creative, improvising playmaker. He needs time. Ideally for Stroud, he would sit for a year. If he gets that opportunity, watch out.

— Lombardi suggests the Texans will see Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson as more of a ‘sure-thing’. I would caution against that line of thinking. It’s how you end up drafting Solomon Thomas instead of Patrick Mahomes.

— Hendon Hooker is a ‘great leader, great kid, great pocket presence’ but Lombardi notes that the Tennessee offense is a half-field read scheme. Anthony Richardson is described as not being an ‘alpha’ but he’s a ‘good kid’.

— He certainly sounds sceptical that the Cardinals will be able to trade out of the #3 spot. That makes sense, given Adam Schefter’s tweet last week trying to drum up interest in the #3 pick.

— Lombardi thinks it’ll go #1 Bryce Young and #2 Will Anderson. He tosses Jalen Carter in as a wildcard at #3. I’d be very surprised by that. Arizona needs a culture reset. Even if you’re Carter’s biggest fan, the Cardinals are not a good fit for a player with major question marks about his attitude, effort, football character, decision making and conditioning. They also have a rookie Head Coach and GM. It feels like a recipe for disaster. I do think Lombardi opens the door for Arizona not being able to trade down though and the top three being Young, Anderson and Tyree Wilson.

— He finishes by saying he thinks Seattle and Detroit will take ‘defensive ends or rushers’. I’m not sure who he thinks they’ll take in those slots if Anderson and Wilson are both gone. He might think Carter but personally I think he’s a very unlikely fit for Seattle and Detroit (aka, ‘Always Compete’ and ‘we want people who will eat your kneecaps’). I also think perhaps Lombardi is overlooking that while Stroud and Richardson might not be ready to start in year one, wouldn’t they be ideally placed in Seattle and Detroit to sit and learn? Isn’t that what they need?

These are interesting thoughts and worth paying attention to. Lombardi is connected, doesn’t mince his words and knows what he’s talking about.

My biggest takeaway from it all is that it might not be that unlikely for Stroud to last to #5, something that was unthinkable a few weeks ago. While I’m sure the Seahawks are very interested in drafting someone like Will Anderson if possible, it’d be quite a decision if they passed on someone like Stroud to take whichever defensive lineman is next on their list at #5.

If you missed my new video mock draft earlier, check it out here:

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Tony Pauline is reporting that the Seahawks sent Steve Hutchinson to work out Joe Tippmann and John Michael Schmitz recently:

Hall of Famer Steve Hutchinson, now an offensive line consultant for the Seahawks, met with Tippmann earlier this week as Seattle debates which center grades higher, the Wisconsin junior or Schmitz.

Tippmann could be the Seahawks’ selection at 20, the same pick the Lions used to select Ragnow in 2018. Seattle will also look to trade down from 20 with the hopes Tippmann or Schmitz are available later. I’m told discussions are already taking place to move that selection.

If they are able to trade down from pick 20, Schmitz could be their guy. If he happens to be available to Seattle at pick 37, it would be manna from heaven for the franchise.

It’s an interesting report and chimes with a lot of what we’ve been discussing recently. When I appeared on the ‘5th Year Option’ podcast this week I said I was going to mock Schmitz to Seattle in every mock between now and draft. Twenty-four hours later I went back on that, because it was just too tempting to have the Seahawks trade down below the Giants, with New York selecting Schmitz at #26.

My focus so far has been on Schmitz and Luke Wypler. Both ran good short shuttles (4.53 for Wypler, 4.56 for Schmitz). That is crucial for the scheme. They both have wrestling backgrounds. They aren’t too tall and a year ago Pete Carroll mentioned at the owners meeting they wanted a shorter center for leverage purposes.

I hadn’t really considered Tippmann for that reason. He’s 6-6. He also didn’t do any combine or pro-day testing. However, he was listed on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list and is reportedly capable of running a remarkable 4.31 shuttle. If you’re wondering why he might be considered as high as #20 — there’s your reason.

According to Dane Brugler, “(Tippmann’s) teammates describe him as a “calm” communicator at center. Relates to every player in the locker room and NFL scouts and coaches give him strong character reviews.”

It sounds like a lot of fans are going to get what they want. It appears the Seahawks are going to make a point of drafting a center for the long term, sorting out the position once and for all.

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Did you know that 28 quarterbacks received a higher grade than Patrick Mahomes on NFL.com over the last 10 years?

Did you know that 22 quarterbacks received a higher grade than Josh Allen?

Well, now you know. There’s a lesson to be learned here.

Let me be clear. This article isn’t having a go at anyone. Quarterback scouting is hard. Especially because where a player is drafted — and who they’re coached by — is incredibly important.

So many young QB’s are drafted by desperate teams, thrust into starting jobs too early and they’re coached by inadequate coaches. The end result is a bust.

It’s no surprise that Mahomes has blossomed playing for Andy Reid, having been afforded a redshirt year as a rookie. It’s no surprise Josh Allen developed and thrived under Brian Daboll (with Daniel Jones having a breakout year under Daboll in 2022).

When they were coming into the league though, both players were criticised for being ‘toolsy’ but far from the finished product. In the end, they landed in the right place to have those tools developed. The result is two world class football players.

For the last few weeks we’ve heard a whole bunch of negative things about the 2023 quarterback class — particularly Anthony Richardson and Will Levis.

Haven’t we been here before?

I’d like to make a suggestion. All of the top four QB’s are excellent, physical talents. They aren’t physically limited, like some of the other quarterbacks taken in round one over the last 10 years. If they land with the right team and the right setup, they’ll probably thrive.

I think, for example, whoever goes first overall has a shot to make it playing for Frank Reich. I think the Colts will be a good place for a young quarterback. I can well imagine a young player succeeding in Atlanta with Arthur Smith. I think the Seahawks, because of Geno Smith and a QB-friendly offense, would be a good place for a player to sit and learn for a year like Mahomes.

I think Houston, on the other hand, could be a problem. They might even know that themselves, which is why we’re suddenly hearing about a defender being taken second overall.

You don’t often hear this angle in the media though. How many times are the physical tools of Richardson and Levis talked about positively, with the acknowledgement that if they land in the right place they could be developed into something special?

What we get instead is an obsession with flaws and what these players didn’t do in college, playing for two pretty mostly average teams.

I wanted to look at how every quarterback was graded over the last 10 drafts on NFL.com. I think it shows how inaccurate this pre-draft process can be. Again, this isn’t to criticise or embarrass anyone. Most of the grades below are from Lance Zierlein. I think Lance is fantastic — he clearly puts the work in and he should be respected greatly. He’s a treasure and someone who should be celebrated within the draft community.

However, how players were graded in the past helps us understand why it’s arguably wrong to criticise players without full context in the future.

In 2014 Nolan Nawrocki wrote the grades for NFL.com. This is how he scored the quarterbacks:

Blake Bortles — 6.80
Teddy Bridgewater — 6.80
Johnny Manziel — 6.40
Derek Carr — 6.30
A.J. McCarron — 6.20
Jimmy Garoppolo — 5.90

For what it’s worth, Odell Beckham and Zack Martin received the same 6.40 grade that Johnny Manziel got.

Lance Zierlein took over in 2015. Let’s look at how he graded the top quarterbacks:

2015

Jameis Winston — 7.00
Marcus Mariota — 6.80
Brett Hundley — 6.10

2016

Jared Goff — 7.00
Paxton Lynch — 6.80
Carson Wentz — 6.70
Connor Cook — 6.30
Christian Hackenburg — 6.10
Jacoby Brissett — 6.10
Dak Prescott — 5.90

2017

Mitchell Trubisky — 7.00
Deshaun Watson — 6.80
Deshone Kizer — 6.30
Patrick Mahomes — 6.30
Nathan Peterman — 6.30

2018

Sam Darnold — 7.10
Baker Mayfield — 6.70
Josh Rosen — 6.70
Josh Allen — 6.40
Lamar Jackson — 6.40
Mason Rudolph — 6.20

2019

Kyler Murray — 6.80
Dwayne Haskins — 6.70
Drew Lock — 6.40
Daniel Jones — 6.30

2020

Joe Burrow — 7.07
Tua Tagovailoa — 6.77
Justin Herbert — 6.45
Jordan Love — 6.36
Jacob Eason — 6.25
Jake Fromm — 6.16
Jalen Hurts — 6.14

2021

Trevor Lawrence — 7.40
Zach Wilson — 6.50
Trey Lance — 6.47
Justin Fields — 6.45
Mac Jones — 6.33
Kyle Trask — 6.19

2022

Malik Willis — 6.42
Matt Corral — 6.40
Kenny Pickett — 6.40
Desmond Ridder — 6.36
Sam Howell — 6.22

28 quarterbacks have received a higher grade than Patrick Mahomes between 2015-2022. He received the same grade that year as Nathan Peterman. So if anyone tries to tell you that Mahomes was a celebrated quarterback prospect going into the league, he wasn’t. He had fantastic physical tools but, as we’ll come onto in a bit, he was also seen as reckless and a system quarterback from the spread.

22 quarterbacks have been graded higher than Josh Allen since 2015. Allen’s grade (6.40) was higher than Mahomes’ (6.30) but the following quarterbacks were graded significantly higher than the pair: Blake Bortles (6.80), Teddy Bridgewater (6.80), Jameis Winston (7.00), Marcus Mariota (6.80), Jared Goff (7.00), Paxton Lynch (6.80), Carson Wentz (6.70), Mitchell Trubisky (7.00), Sam Darnold (7.10), Baker Mayfield (6.70) and Dwayne Haskins (6.70).

Players with traits typically faired well. This is one of the main reasons why I’m supportive of the 2023 quarterback class. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis have special physical tools. C.J. Stroud has a big arm, he can create as he showed against Georgia and his ability to throw with touch is at an elite level. Bryce Young lacks height but he has a clear natural quality and he’s incredibly creative. I have him ranked fourth out of the group simply because he lacks the prototype size and tools that typically excel but I’m still a fan.

Here are Lance’s grades for the 2023 class:

Bryce Young — 6.82
C.J. Stroud — 6.70
Anthony Richardson — 6.40
Will Levis — 6.34
Hendon Hooker — 6.23

He’s given Richardson the same grade as Josh Allen and Levis has a marginally better grade than Mahomes. All four players have a considerably lower grade than Paxton Lynch.

Doesn’t that at least tell us that lingering on perceived weaknesses is a mistake? That what we probably should be doing here is concentrating on what these players can become? When you have the size, massive hands and rocket arm of a Richardson or Levis — develop those tools properly and we’ve seen what the results can be.

I keep coming back to this quote from John Schneider when he was asked about quarterback scouting on 710 Seattle Sports:

“You have to be able to project where they’re going. You just can’t look at here’s A, B and C and that’s part of their game, you have to be able to say here’s A, B and C — what’s it going to look like at X, Y and Z? Where are they going to be? That’s the study, that’s the art, that’s the projection that’s involved.”

Too many people going into the 2017 draft slept on Mahomes’ physical talent. They didn’t project where he could go, they simply focused on what he wasn’t doing at Texas Tech.

Remember, Mahomes wasn’t listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft or an updated version in April, weeks before he was taken 10th overall. Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.

In Jeremiah’s final April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the 10th and 12th picks respectively. Kizer was the 52nd pick and flamed out of the league.

We’ve already highlighted that Lance Zierlein gave Mahomes a 6.30 grade and in his blurb he wrote, “Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.”

In an article on NFL.com written by Lance, Josh Allen received an unflattering review:

The scoop: “He scares me like he scares everyone, but he is easily the most physically talented quarterback (in this class). He will get drafted much higher than the level of his tape.” — AFC director of college scouting on Wyoming QB Josh Allen

The skinny: Listed at 6-foot-5, 233 pounds and with high-end arm talent, Allen is the prototype at the quarterback position. However, Allen’s production has been very pedestrian this season (181 yards passing per game, 55.9 percent completion rate, 12 TDs and 6 INTs in 8 games).

His accuracy and decision making are not where they need to be. In comparison, Carson Wentz had very similar physical traits and ability coming out of North Dakota State. He was the No. 2 overall selection of the 2016 draft, but his accuracy and football intelligence were exceptionally high. Coincidentally, Allen’s coach (Craig Bohl) helped groom Wentz at NDSU before being hired at Wyoming.

Allen might make a substantial leap forward with better talent surrounding him than what he’s working with at Wyoming. However, I’m not ready to say he’s a franchise quarterback at this juncture.

These are all things being said about Richardson and Levis currently.

I also like to keep highlighting what Bob McGinn’s anonymous scouting sources said about Mahomes and Allen:

On Josh Allen:

“He reminds me of (Blake) Bortles,” a second scout said. “Bortles lacked consistent accuracy and I see the same thing with Allen. Big-time athlete but really an inconsistent passer. I don’t see (Carson) Wentz. Some people do because they had the same coach (Craig Bohl). Wentz was a very mature, confident person.” Two-year starter. “He looks the part and a good athlete,” a third scout said. “But you talk about lacking in being a winning quarterback. He has a lot of bad tape (even) at that level. Somebody will still take him high. Are we going on what the tape is and the production and the winning? Or are we going on this guy looks like he should be an NFL quarterback and how he throws the ball?”

On Patrick Mahomes:

“People are trying to make that comparison because of his arm. He’s got a really good arm, but Favre was not as reckless as this guy.

“He’s crazy. He plays crazy. He’ll do anything. I don’t even think “gunslinger’ is the right word. He’s reckless.”

“He’s in ‘that offense’ and the way he plays, he’s very erratic,” another director from an NFC team said. “You can see the talent but he’s just so streaky and wild and reckless. He put a lot of balls up for grabs where you’re saying, ‘Man, what are you going to get with him?’

“He could (come on) but I don’t see it. I just don’t think he has the necessary qualities. He has no vision, no mechanics. He’s erratic as hell. He makes a lot of mistakes. It’s going to be a long (development).”

“Mahomes is the boom or bust guy,” said one of the two evaluators that expected him to fail. “He carries the biggest upside but he does have a bust factor. He’s just going to be inexperienced doing the things he’s going to do here.
“When you start looking at players that play off the script it concerns you, and a lot of what he does is off-script. In the NFL, when you get off-script is when you make big, big errors. It’s not as easy to make the off-script play on our level as it is at Texas Tech.”

I’m not guaranteeing that Levis and Richardson are set to become elite players and follow in the footsteps of Mahomes and Allen. That would be silly.

I’m just highlighting that we’ve been here before. Overlooking elite traits and focusing too much on what a player wasn’t in college, rather than what he can become in the NFL, has been a mistake made by teams and draft media alike.

I think a better approach to this would be to spend more time acknowledging the physical tools with Richardson and Levis, then discussing the best landing spots to enable them to succeed.

Context is important too.

Allen and Mahomes didn’t play for Ohio State or Alabama. They didn’t play for the new-fangled spread in Tennessee or Washington. They played for Wyoming and Texas Tech. Mahomes benefitted from the air-raid and put up monster stats, admittedly — but he was 12-13 in his last two seasons. Allen was given an incredibly challenging situation with no supporting cast.

Neither were throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson like Joe Burrow, that’s for sure.

Richardson and Levis were in a similar boat in college.

Florida is basically in a ground-zero rebuild. Despite that, Richardson showed gradual improvement as the season went on — finishing on a streak that included 16 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last six games against Georgia, LSU, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Florida State & Vanderbilt. When he missed the Bowl game, Oregon State hammered Florida 30-3.

Levis played behind one of the worst O-lines in college football. Here’s a reminder of the ‘sacks per game’ stats for a collection of teams featuring big-name quarterbacks in 2022:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

We have to accept that Levis facing 3.50 sacks per game is a world away from Bo Nix, Stetson Bennett, Michael Penix Jr and C.J. Stroud benefitting from less than a sack per game.

Levis also had a young group of inexperienced receivers to throw to with no star names. His running back had a suspension. He then got hurt, because of the bad O-line, breaking his toe. He played through that plus other injuries. It’s all detailed in this article from Jeff Howe at the Athletic, published today.

How would Bryce Young fair in that environment? Or Hendon Hooker? Or Michael Penix Jr? Or Trevor Lawrence? Or Joe Burrow?

Despite all of this, here’s what Levis put on tape:

Will Levis & Anthony Richardson can do things most QB’s can’t.

The draft is about projection. We’ll see today why both are worthy of the #5 pick. Seattle will be lucky if either is there.

The video below, on Levis, highlights this #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/HdoWAJJLyu

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) March 4, 2023

Difference making tools, when developed properly, can win you a lot of football games in the NFL. A great quarterback can cover a number of warts. Some of the best players in the league were viewed as inaccurate, reckless, not good enough and scary when they were coming into the league.

We’re hearing it all again this year.

Plenty of mistakes were made in 2017 and 2018. Will the same thing happen this year?

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We’re a fortnight away from the NFL draft. I wanted to do another mock reflecting the talk about Houston not taking a quarterback with the second pick. There are also reports that GM Nick Caserio could leave the team after the draft, adding another layer of intrigue to the situation.

I’ll have some Seahawks-related thoughts at the end of the mock, plus a seven-round projection.

The trades explained

There are three first round trades. Washington cough up their 2024 and 2025 first round picks to jump from #16 to #3 to select C.J. Stroud. Tennessee trades up from #41 to #31 with the Chiefs to select local hero Hendon Hooker. The Titans give the Chiefs their third round pick and get back Kansas City’s fourth rounder in return. And the Bills go from #28 to #20 in a trade with the Seahawks to get Jaxson Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks get Buffalo’s third round pick.

First round

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
All of the momentum currently is behind Young being the top pick.

#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
I’m going to take notice of the noise about Houston not going quarterback here but I remain confident Anderson will be the first defender taken.

#3 Washington (v/ARI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
I don’t think the Commanders are seriously investing their future in Sam Howell. Having appointed Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator, they might be waiting for their moment to strike in a trade. This would be an expensive jump including their next two first round picks but Stroud showed some Mahomes-level play against Georgia.

#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
I think the Colts settled on this pick a while ago and it’s why they didn’t make a serious move to trade up. Chris Mortensen says Levis is a top-five lock.

#5 Seattle — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think they’d love Will Anderson to last to this spot but if he doesn’t — Richardson has the physical talent Carroll and Schneider seek to invest in.

#6 Detroit — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
Dan Campbell once said he wanted ‘kneecap-eaters’. Witherspoon is the biggest hitter in the draft.

#7 Las Vegas — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
There’s a bit of a ‘Patriots’ vibe to Gonzalez, so let’s put him with ‘Patriots west’.

#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Terry Fontenot is a big BPA guy and on a lot of boards, Robinson is going to be among the top 2-3 players in the entire class.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
A nagging injury, no testing and inconsistent tape makes this a better range for Wilson than the top-five.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I think Philly is the most likely spot for Carter.

#11 Tennessee — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
He’s the best offensive lineman in the draft.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
I think he’s a tweener and it’s hard to place where he starts in the NFL. Yet he might remind DeMeco Ryans of himself.

#13 NY Jets — Broderick Jones (T, Georgia)
Joe Douglas loves explosive linemen.

#14 New England — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
They have an unsettled situation on the offensive line and Johnson Jr has the length a lot of teams will like.

#15 Green Bay — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
A perfect match.

#16 Arizona (v/WAS) — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
After moving down 13 spots, collecting a haul in the process, the Cardinals select a much needed pass rusher.

#17 Pittsburgh — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
The family ties are strong and Mike Tomlin’s the type of coach to pay attention to stuff like that.

#18 Detroit — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
He’ll only last this long because of his length and he’s too explosive to go much lower than this.

#19 Tampa Bay — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
I think he’s better than some of the bigger name tackles.

#20 Buffalo (v/SEA) — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
The Bills jump the Chargers, Ravens, Vikings and Giants to make the kind of move their fans are calling for.

#21 Miami — forfeited
Tut tut.

#22 LA Chargers — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
Aaron Donald helped Brandon Staley create the #1 defense in LA. Why not try and do it again with Kancey?

#23 Baltimore — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
He could go a lot earlier than people think after a superb set of combine tests.

#24 Minnesota — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
Lightning quick and his best football is yet to come.

#25 Jacksonville — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
Amazing testing, great length, superb attitude, excellent Senior Bowl. ‘Ade Ade’ appears destined to go in this range.

#26 New York Giants — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
They are one of a handful of teams who might be eyeing JMS in this range — including the Seahawks.

#27 Dallas — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jerry Jones wants an explosive offense and Gibbs can help get them there.

#28 Seattle (v/BUF) — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
After trading down eight spots, the Seahawks add a pass rusher who could be their answer to Brian Burns. He trained with Seahawks pass-rush coach B.T. Jordan earlier this year before he accepted the job in Seattle.

#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
A lot of mocks have him going earlier but we should consider his injury status, lack of testing and the fact he started 2022 as Utah’s TE2.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
A brilliant combine puts the big Georgia blocker into the back-end of round one.

#31 Philadelphia — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
They lost both starting safeties in free agency so this is a good fit for team and player.

#32 Tennessee (v/KC) — Hendon Hooker (QB, Tennessee)
The Titans trade back into round one in order to secure a local favourite and ensure they get the fifth year option on his contract.

Second round

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
It wouldn’t be a bad idea to reunite Kenny Pickett with his former #1 college target.

#34 Houston — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
The testing numbers are great but there’s no getting away from the fact he didn’t start at Iowa.

#35 Arizona — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
They get a big defensive lineman in round one, then a big cornerback in round two.

#36 Indianapolis — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
Colts fans want more explosive plays and Downs is my WR1 in this class.

#37 LA Rams — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
There’s a lot of buzz around Forbes going in this range.

#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
I’m going to assume they cut Al Woods in part because they felt very confident about replacing him.

#39 Las Vegas — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
The lack of playing time and below-expectation testing results moves Musgrave into the second round but he’s still a top-40 talent.

#40 Carolina — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Running the 4.5’s at pro-day shifts Johnston into the second round.

#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
He can help anchor the line but he’s also very capable of being an impact rusher.

#42 Kansas City (v/TEN) — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Another dynamic weapon for Patrick Mahomes.

#43 NY Jets (v/CLE) — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
Robert Salah succeeded in San Francisco because they pumped resource into the D-line.

#44 NY Jets — Cody Mauch (G/C, North Dakota State)
Another explosive lineman for the Jets, Mauch could fill the void at center.

#45 Atlanta — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
They need another edge rusher and Hall has the 10-yard split, agility testing and length to be really dynamic.

#46 Green Bay — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
He could play right tackle or inside immediately and be the eventual starter on the blind-side.

#47 New England — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
With the way they use their linebackers, this would be a good fit for Sanders.

#48 Washington — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
He’s such a fluid mover in the open-field it won’t be a surprise if he goes earlier than this.

#49 Detroit (v/MIN) — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
He plays like a Dan Campbell guy and has the testing results to be really, really good.

#50 Pittsburgh — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
Reportedly teams have soured on Jones due to his unwillingness to test at the combine or pro-day, plus the way he called it a week after one day at the Senior Bowl.

#51 Tampa Bay — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
It feels like a long time since Daniel Jeremiah labelled White the best defender in the draft.

#52 Miami — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
He is such an exciting player to watch and he’s had a great draft process.

#53 Seattle — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Wypler is an excellent scheme fit in Seattle.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s flying under the radar despite a terrific Senior Bowl and a good combine.

#55 LA Chargers — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I think Mingo’s a top-50 player in this class.

#57 Jacksonville — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Great personality, outstanding physical tools, huge potential.

#58 NY Giants — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee
He has genuine downfield ability but his combine testing was underwhelming.

#59 Dallas — Joe Tippmann (C/G, Wisconsin)
He can play anywhere along the interior.

#60 Buffalo — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
I wouldn’t take him this early but someone might.

#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
The Bengals love speed at cornerback.

#62 Chicago (v/CAR, SF) — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s a well-rounded, explosive running back.

#63 Philadelphia — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
He’s more athlete than football player currently.

#64 Kansas City — Sydney Brown (S, Illinois)
He’s a Chiefs-type of draft pick — super athletic and versatile.

Seven-round projection for Seattle

#5 — Anthony Richardson (QB)
#27 — Will McDonald (EDGE)
#37 — Mazi Smith (DT)
#52 — Luke Wypler (C)
#83 — Israel Abanikanda (RB, Pittsburgh)
#91 — Henry To’oTo’o (LB, Alabama)
#123 — Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
#151 — Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
#154 — Charlie Jones (WR, Purdue)
#198 — Jordan Howden (S, Minnesota)
#237 — Payne Durham (TE, Purdue)

Further thoughts on the Seahawks

My opinion isn’t likely to change over the next two weeks — I think the Seahawks will be very interested in Will Anderson and he might be their ideal pick at #5. If he’s off the board I don’t think they’ll pivot to Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson (although I wouldn’t rule out Wilson). I think the Seahawks are highly intrigued by Anthony Richardson and he’s the type of athlete they love to try and develop. If Anderson is gone and Richardson’s available, I think there’s a good chance they’ll take him.

I’m comfortable taking a high-upside quarterback and I think they will be too. Taking a shot to try and get the next Josh Allen is a perfectly understandable plan. We know John Schneider was a big admirer of Allen’s, so much so he was willing to trade peak Russell Wilson to draft Allen. If it doesn’t work out, so what? The upside potential of someone like Richardson succeeding is enormous. And really, he’s no more or less risky than drafting someone like Carter, who has a tremendous amount of baggage.

One other thing — you don’t have to copy the 49ers to beat them. Richardson’s athleticism and physical talent could be the antidote for San Francisco’s pass rush. He’s a player I don’t think 49ers fans want the Seahawks to draft. There’s something to be said for that.

There’s also something to consider here. The ‘out’ in Geno Smith’s contract doesn’t purely exist for the potential to draft a replacement quarterback. It’s to protect the team. Smith is due $32.1m in 2024. There’s another $15m in escalators to be earned. If he has an average season, you might not want to pay him $32.1m If he has a slightly better year than last year and hits his escalators, you might not want to pay him +$40m. So there’s a big call to be made here and having the option to transition to a far cheaper, high upside potential star in 2024 just gives the Seahawks another option to help make a decision on Geno’s deal.

In this mock they still come back and add two key defensive linemen with their next two picks, so it’s not as if the defense is being ignored. They also get a center who is an ideal scheme fit before the end of round two.

Abanikanda ticks every box they look for in a running back in terms of size and explosive traits. I can’t ignore how closely Carroll observed To’oTo’o at Alabama’s pro-day. McFadden is perfect to convert to guard, providing immediate depth and starter potential from 2024. Trice has the size, length and instincts they’ve been attracted to in the past and Jones ran in the 4.4’s (speed is key for Seattle at receiver) and he can handle kick return duties.

I like Howden on tape and he can fill the void left by Ryan Neal, while Durham gives the Seahawks a Y-tight end they can add for depth.

They’d have to go out and sign another defensive lineman after the draft (Poona Ford? Shelby Harris?) but that is achievable. The class mixes in players for the here and now and prospects for the future.

Let me know what you think in the comments section.

Today I was invited onto the 5th year option podcast to talk about the Seahawks and the draft. My bit starts 30 minutes in. You can check it out below:

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