Month: February 2024 (Page 2 of 4)

Thursday notes: What could happen at quarterback around the league?

February 22, 2024 /

Justin Fields to the Patriots?

I noticed in the Athletic’s beat-writer mock draft this week they had New England trade out of the #3 pick with the objective of taking a left tackle then trading for Justin Fields. Meanwhile, Daniel Jeremiah’s latest mock had them staying at #3 and selecting Marvin Harrison Jr, not a quarterback. Jeremiah says it’s with the idea the Patriots claim a veteran QB instead.

I get the feeling there’s a few whispers within the league that Fields to New England could be on. I think it’s plausible for a few reasons. Firstly, we’ve been saying for months that Drake Maye — while certainly an interesting prospect — had been wildly overrated by draft media. People were talking about him being the #1 pick a few weeks ago. In reality, there are going to be mixed feelings about Maye — and various people are starting to say that.

As it becomes increasingly clear Caleb Williams is a lock at #1 and Jayden Daniels will likely be taken at #2, it’s distinctly possible the Patriots aren’t that hot on Maye. A few teams won’t be.

New England might think trading, for example, the #68 pick plus something else for Fields will give them a two-year window to assess him on the final year of his rookie deal and the fifth-year option. Meanwhile, they can then go in a different direction in round one.

Don’t be surprised if they trade out of #3 for a huge haul to help build their new era. If Eliot Wolf is making the calls on draft day, it’s distinctly possible he’ll trade down a few spots, grab future picks and draft a left tackle. That would be very ‘Ron Wolf’. Alternatively, they could stay at #3 and pair Fields with Marvin Harrison Jr.

Vikings vs Broncos for J.J. McCarthy?

There could be a bit of a battle here, with both teams seeking to trade up and get their man. Mike Florio mentioned recently that he’s hearing the Vikings haven’t exactly been active in contract talks so far with Kirk Cousins.

They might be wary of committing major money to a soon-to-be 36-year-old coming off a serious injury, especially if he’s expecting another contract loaded with guarantees. Meanwhile, the Falcons (who have just appointed an OC who will be installing the same offense as Minnesota) are being heavily linked with a move for Cousins. Furthermore, Cousins’ wife is originally from Georgia and most of her family reside there.

The Vikings have, as some have called it, an ‘analytics-based front office’. As we noted in a recent article, McCarthy succeeds statistically in key areas such as third down, red zone and scrambling. This probably hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Meanwhile Denver is on the look out for someone who Sean Payton can order around and run his offense exactly how he wants. McCarthy more or less operated within that environment at Michigan.

Both teams could be eyeing the same player. Both could be aggressive to go and get him in the top-10 — even if physically McCarthy has limitations.

Could there be a run on quarterbacks?

I think it’s very possible. This is a very different class to the flawed 2022 group. There’s physical talent within the big names that can overpower concerns and flaws. Even though Will Levis dropped to #33 a year ago, it’s not like he dropped deep into day two. It’s plausible if J.J. McCarthy comes off the board in the top-10 as the fourth QB taken, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr won’t have to wait too long.

Such is the diverse range for those two in particular, and perhaps Spencer Rattler, it also won’t be a shock if they last to day two. I’m just saying don’t be surprised if they come off the board in the top-half of round one. Both have excellent physical tools, were highly productive in college and neither have any character issues. Penix Jr has the medical question mark but he did play two full seasons at UW.

Las Vegas could be in the market for one of the pair (Al Davis would’ve loved Penix Jr’s arm). What do Denver do if they miss out on McCarthy? Can Bo Nix run Sean Payton’s offense? Then there’s Seattle at #16. I think it’d be foolish to rule out the idea the Seahawks see someone, such as Penix Jr, as the present and future.

And I get it — every time that comes up we get the pro’s and con’s on Penix Jr, those who hate the idea and those receptive to it. I think it’d be a bit high and it’d be better to trade down first. The thing is, his arm is elite. John Schneider likes elite arms. They just hired the Washington OC. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we’ll see six QB’s go in round one.

Where could other veteran QB’s land?

If the Raiders don’t intend to draft a quarterback at #13, Russell Wilson could be an interesting option. He’d be the big name they crave, plus he’d be highly motivated to beat the Broncos in the division. The cost would also be beneficial too because Denver would be picking up the tab.

If/when Mac Jones moves on from the Patriots, doesn’t it seem like a perfect match to go to San Francisco to back-up Brock Purdy? Who knows, maybe Kyle Shanahan will think there’s cause to roll with a cheaper Jones if things pan out, rather than paying Purdy a fortune?

The Buccs appear determined to keep Baker Mayfield and will likely ensure that happens.

It won’t leave much of a market for Geno Smith and this is why I think of all the options, Pittsburgh makes the most sense. The Seahawks might have trouble finding a market for Geno.

Meanwhile, it’s been announced Jer’Zhon Newton will not work-out at the combine after recently having foot surgery. Cooper DeJean will also not test in Indianapolis.

Identifying players with difference making skills

February 20, 2024 /

The NFL brings out a top-100 players list every year. If you take the top-30 from 2023 and look at where they were drafted, not including the one player who went undrafted, the average pick range of the NFL’s elite was #40 overall.

Only 16 players were first rounders and eight were top-10 picks. It goes to show that you don’t need to be picking early to find elite quality. You just need to identify who the hidden gems are.

Two of the top-30 were George Kittle and Fred Warner, a pair of players we talked about a fair bit on this blog. Kittle’s combination of blocking ability, extreme athleticism and body control jumped out on tape. Then he ran a 4.51 at 247lbs and jumped a 38.5 inch vertical at the combine. His stock suffered playing for Iowa’s impotent offense, where he had only 737 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in four seasons. He still had no business lasting to round five and yet there he was, gift-wrapped for the Niners.

Warner was slightly undersized but the tape was good, he ran a 4.28 short shuttle (a key indicator for linebackers) and he was explosive (38.5 inch vertical). He was taken in round three and joined Kittle in becoming a mainstay core player for San Francisco.

Maxx Crosby has become one of the NFL’s best pass rushers in his generation. He had no business lasting to round four after running an obscene 4.13 short shuttle at 255lbs, to go with a 36 inch vertical. He had the tools to be great.

Aaron Donald was the best player in the 2014 draft. That isn’t hindsight, we said as much at the time. For the price of being a bit on the smaller side he lasted to #13 so he could terrorise the NFC West for years. He ran a 1.63 split at 285lbs, a 4.39 short shuttle and a 4.68 forty.

How did Travis Kelce last to round three when he ran a 4.61 at 255lbs and a 4.42 short shuttle? Was it the one year of production?

Tyreek Hill had major character flags and was lucky to be drafted at all, let alone in round five. Yet a 4.29 forty, 6.53 three-cone and a 40.5 inch vertical hinted at what he was capable of.

Sometimes it really is just as simple as trying to find the players with the special physical qualities matching to good enough examples on tape. There are busts too — just look at Christine Michael and Malik McDowell for picks that didn’t work out for Seattle. Yet if you want special you’ve got to look for it.

The Seahawks focused a lot on character in the last two drafts and it’s important to do that to avoid a repeat of the Michael and McDowell snafu’s. Yet for the team to take the next step, they’re also going to need to find some blue-chip studs beyond just the first round.

I want to write about three players who seem to have a special quality to them but before getting into the trio, there are others to mention.

There’s no denying Michael Penix Jr’s arm is special. It just is and for that reason, he could have more appeal with certain teams than some are currently projecting. Rome Odunze may get perfect grades from some teams at his position for his combination of speed, body control, ball-tracking, hands and A+ character. Brock Bowers is a sensational player and a top-10 lock, as is Marvin Harrison Jr.

Blog favourite Malik Mustapha has a rare combination of speed, reactions, intensity and physicality. He reminds me of Budda Baker. Payton Wilson has a ‘hair on fire’ approach and while there are legit concerns about his injury history, there’s a lot to be said for the way he impacts football games. Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy is expected to test brilliantly and I’m intrigued to see how fast Troy Franklin runs. There are a host of good receivers in this draft and testing will be fascinating to see how they compare.

After the combine we’ll be able to pick out certain players with the high ceilings who could be destined to join the list of ‘players who went later than they should’. Yet the combine schedule is again designed around primetime TV coverage, almost certainly meaning, once again, hardly any players will do the agility testing.

Thanks, NFL.

Here are three players with the physical potential and matching tape, who could end up being drafted way below their talent level.

Cade Stover (TE, Ohio State)

I felt like I had an angle on Stover from last season so didn’t focus on him too much in 2023, so went back for a re-watch over the last few days. It’s time to take him very seriously as a player who could be the next dynamic move-tight end in the mould of Sam LaPorta.

Stover is going to test far better than anyone imagines at the combine. You can see it on tape. I think because he switched from the linebacker position, people have underestimated him. He’s a top level athlete.

For his size (6-4, 251lbs) he’s very difficult to cover and has a natural feel for where to settle into soft areas in coverage. He’s a very dynamic route runner who can separate in his break to create easy opportunities for the quarterback to get the ball out. He competes for the ball in the air and aces many contested catch opportunities. He is an expert at catching the ball away from his body, making difficult grabs look easy, and he has excellent catching technique — cupping his hands to the ball. Stover has rare run-after-the-catch ability and he’ll be a player who — if he succeeds — will be a feature weapon you need to game-plan for every week. He creates havoc as a receiver and that’s what you want from a modern tight end.

I’m convinced that after the combine his stock will propel into round two. If he’s taken any later than that, it could be a bargain. Modern NFL teams tend to need a dynamic pass-catching tight-end to succeed. It’s the cheat code for the league. After watching him again recently, I’d say he’s someone I would seriously want to come out of this draft with. He has the potential to play way beyond his draft range and, whisper it quietly, there is some Kelce to his game.

I’m not sure how the Seahawks will view the tight end position. Washington didn’t feature it that much under Ryan Grubb, utilising Jack Westover in mostly an impact role. That might’ve been down to personnel (Penix Jr’s arm, three great receivers) but I think for the Seahawks to truly threaten the better teams, they need a dynamic receiving tight end and they need a plan to use him properly.

T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)

Sometimes you’ve got to just zone out the bad reps and focus on the good ones. When watching the Senior Bowl workouts live, Sweat’s 1v1’s were a mixed bag of extremes. I went back and studied the 1v1’s last week and noted I was less impressed than initially thought with Jackson Powers-Johnson. Yesterday, I sang the praises of Sweat because on reflection, he was absolutely sensational at times. I’m trying to lean more on the philosophy of Ron Wolf to focus on what a player can be.

Jim Nagy was tweeting about Sweat today highlighting the same positives. You’re watching a man who is about 360lbs swimming into the backfield with a great arm/over move. He flies by the blocker like he’s a 300lbs dynamic three-technique. Then on other reps, he’s getting into the chest of an interior lineman and launching them into the backfield. You just don’t see this. It looked like a forklift truck was being given a rep, not a bloke from Texas. His ability to mix power and speed to this extent, at his size, is rare.

When you watch stuff like that you think, how good can this guy be? This isn’t normal.

Then you look at the stats I highlighted yesterday. Sweat’s run defense grade was 92.0 in 2023 -— #1 among interior defensive linemen. His 12.8% stop percentage (number of times he was responsible for personally stopping the run play) ranked 2nd behind UCF’s Lee Hunter. His pass rush grade was an 85.3 —- seventh best among all interior defensive linemen. His pass rush win percentage (15.3%) ranked sixth best, he had the second most batted passes at the LOS (6) and he ranked 11th for QB hurries (26). In true pass-sets, his win percentage increased to 24.5% (ranked fifth).

This is outstanding production, hinting at a complete player who can uniquely produce in any situation. There aren’t many exceptional nose tackle types in the league — Dexter Lawrence and Vita Vea probably set the standard, with a handful of good players below them. Is Sweat gifted enough to believe he can be a Lawrence or Vea? And is the positional value there for a big body in the middle, especially when teams seem more eager than ever to attack the perimeter?

It could present an opportunity where Sweat lasts longer than he should. Not to mention the weight issue. He didn’t weigh-in at the Senior Bowl, amid talk that he could be anywhere between 350-380lbs. We’ll see if weighs at the combine. There may be some concern about how he manages the weight and I’ve said for a while, he could probably be even better by losing 20lbs.

What we do know is Seattle’s run defense has stunk for years and Baltimore’s was hardly spectacular under Mike Macdonald. Could someone like Sweat fix the issue?

Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)

For me he’s the premier edge rusher in the class. His get-off is jaw-dropping. His ability to put the tackle on the back-foot immediately then bend-and-straighten like he’s in the Matrix is stunning. I’m not worried about making this comparison — it’s Micah Parsons’ esque what he does rushing the edge.

Robinson can also stunt inside, battle with his hands, press a blocker in the chest to bull-rush and he delivers consistent effort to work to the quarterback. Nobody else comes close to his talent potential and he has the ability to be truly special at the next level. Power, speed, balance, agility, bend, quickness. It’s all there.

So why isn’t he in the top-10 of every mock draft, often lasting deep into round one? It has to be his lack of production — eight sacks in his last two seasons. Yet it’s deceptive — he had 26 pressures in 10 games in 2023, plus 18 hurries. His sensational get-off and threat to bend the arc troubled quarterbacks consistently when he was on the field. He will impact games and it won’t be a surprise if, eventually, the pressures turn into sacks and he turns into one of the league’s best.

A good combine — where he’s expected to run in the 4.4’s at 255lbs, while adding a 4.2 short shuttle and a 10-7 broad jump, could push his stock into a more deserving range within the media. If it doesn’t happen, he could be a steal outside of the top-10. Robinson is a great prospect who deserves far more attention than he’s getting.

I’ll do a bigger breakdown during our annual combine coverage as more players with special qualities emerge. I think these are three certainly to keep an eye on. The Seahawks have drafted very well the last two years but they need to find stars and difference makers to close the gap to the other top teams.

10 predictions for the Seahawks this off-season

February 19, 2024 /

These are my predictions for the Seahawks off-season. Let me know how much you disagree with them in the comments section.

1. The Seahawks trade Geno Smith after the combine

From the lukewarm review from John Schneider, the non-committal comments from the new Head Coach and Adam Schefter’s quote-tweet presenting the possibility of a trade, the tea leaves are making it clear this is a distinct possibility.

It’ll require someone to make an offer the Seahawks are prepared to accept but I sense, rightly or wrongly, they are just prepared to move on. I think they want to get younger at the position, have the draft in mind and are willing to roll with Drew Lock if needed.

Rather than cut Smith and receive no compensation, they can flip him before March 18th and get something. They’ll save $13.8m this year and, perhaps more importantly, create $33.7m in cap space for 2025.

If Geno was the unquestioned starter for next season, as many believe, the GM of the Seahawks and the Head Coach had multiple opportunities in the media to make that clear. They didn’t.

This feels like it’s heading in a certain direction. My trade-partner guess would be Pittsburgh. The Seahawks need to receive an offer though, so we’ll see how it plays out. The combine is where any talks would heat up.

2. The Seahawks re-sign Drew Lock and add another veteran

Ryan Grubb says he’s giving new-parent advice to Lock, while Schneider and Mike Macdonald are name-dropping him in questions about Geno Smith. The Seahawks are spelling it out — Lock’s coming back. Whether it’s to act as a cheaper bridge than Smith, a genuine starter or to simply be a backup, they are going to re-sign the 27-year-old.

They were able to keep him without much reported competition a year ago so the likelihood is this will get done.

I think they’ll then sign a veteran backup/competition. Tyler Huntley, Sam Darnold, Joshua Dobbs. That type of player. That way the team has two quarterbacks on the books before the draft.

3. The Seahawks will trade down in the draft

They pick at #16 then have to wait 62 picks until #78 before selecting again. Unless they trade down, they’ll miss out on the meat of the draft class — with a lot of good options at positions of need on day two.

There are teams in the 20’s who could be eyeing an offensive tackle (Green Bay) and several who could be targeting a specific cornerback (Philadelphia, Buffalo, Detroit) so there should be options. The Packers having two second round picks is helpful. It feels like there’s a deal to be done here.

4. The Seahawks will draft a quarterback between picks #25-65

As mentioned earlier, I just get the sense they are going to go younger at the position and launch their new offense with a signal caller they can build around.

Listen to this interview with ESPN’s Brady Henderson on ‘1080 The Fan’. He notes towards the end that the Seahawks, in his opinion, probably liked Anthony Richardson enough to take him with the #5 pick a year ago. However, they were reluctant to set-up a bridge situation where Richardson’s salary and bonus added to the cost of Geno Smith’s contract as it’d be bad value in terms of the cap.

Brady is well connected, so this is worth paying attention to. I came away with two thoughts. Firstly, the Seahawks using Geno as a bridge and adding a rookie to sit behind him is less likely than some of us have thought. Secondly, it lends support to the idea the Seahawks might be comfortable drafting and starting a rookie quarterback rather than making them sit and wait behind a more expensive veteran.

I’m not saying this is the right or wrong way to do things. I think it might be their approach, though. They wouldn’t be the first team to think there’s huge benefit in having a cheaper quarterback, to make the most of the rookie pay-scale. And there could be an extra reason why they feel comfortable doing this…

5. The Seahawks will draft Michael Penix Jr

If you are going to start a rookie next year, it might as well be the one who spent the last two years working with your new offensive coordinator. He’ll know the terminology, he has a good relationship with Ryan Grubb and it could actually be a real benefit for the rest of the team to have a quarterback and coach who can guide as the new offensive structure is built.

Penix Jr won’t be a great fit for every team but I think he is for the Seahawks, as long as any combine medical checks are clear. I spoke to one highly experienced and respected talent evaluator recently and he voiced concern about the Washington quarterback because the offense he played in was full of pre-determined reads. I suspect some teams will share that view. The Seahawks clearly don’t. They just hired the guy who was running Washington’s offense to run theirs.

Penix Jr’s stock in the media has been a rollercoaster. During the season I don’t think enough people recognised he had a difficult stretch of games. After the Sugar Bowl, I think people got especially carried away. John Middlekauff — who’s great — called Penix Jr ‘the clear #2 pick in the draft’. Then he rowed that thought back a week later after the Michigan game. It’s why I wrote this article after the Texas win to try and provide some balance.

Now, I’d argue Penix Jr has become underrated. He’s an afterthought for many. As I said in yesterday’s piece, you can pull up 15 or more throws from the 2023 season alone and make a case that they are as good as anything you’ll ever see in college football. He has elite arm talent, the ability to throw highly difficult layered passes between defenders deep to the sideline, he can throw with outstanding touch 40-50 yards downfield and when you need him to laser a throw through traffic in the red zone, he can do it and make it look easy.

He led the NCAA in play-action passing per PFF’s grading system, he was second only to J.J. McCarthy on third and fourth down accuracy, he had more big-time throws than anyone else in college football last year and he led the NCAA in big-time throws from play-action.

Penix Jr isn’t perfect and there are legit concerns about his awful 23.3% completion percentage on scrambles, the way his completion percentage tailed off last season as pressures increased and the fact he’s not as accomplished on short and intermediate passes.

Yet if you want an explosive offense combining big shots downfield with a tough, physical running game — there’s really nobody better to do this than Penix Jr. He’d have a smoother transition to starting quickly working under Grubb, he’s an experienced and mature player and a good leader. His arm tilts the field and he elevated Washington to within one game of being the best team in the nation.

Trade down a bit, get some more draft stock and then select Penix Jr?

It’s not a ridiculous thought.

6. The Seahawks will part with several big-name players

Jamal Adams will be a post-June 1st cut to save $16.5m. Quandre Diggs’ cap-hit of $21.2m is unsustainable and he is cut to save $11m. I’m torn on what happens with Tyler Lockett but his cap-hit is nearly $27m and it feels like he could also be a post-June 1st departure. Bryan Mone is certain to depart, saving $5.8m. Will Dissly’s $10m cap-hit also warrants monitoring, given they can save $7m by moving on.

On top of Geno Smith potentially being dealt to save $13.8m, this would give the Seahawks ample money to reshape their team and shift resource to different areas.

One final thing I think might happen is the Seahawks waiting until training camp to make a call on Dre’Mont Jones. He had an underwhelming first season in Seattle. If by camp he’s failing to make an impression, or if he simply doesn’t fit, he could be moved to save an extra $11.5m. They can’t trade him until after June 1st, though, to recoup that saving. If it isn’t working — a player swap or a late-round flier could be in order to get the extra cap-room. It could be important too — remember, the Ravens signed Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy later last year and both became vital additions to Macdonald’s defense.

7. The Seahawks retain three key players

I think the Seahawks will hang on to Leonard Williams, even if they have a fight on their hands. He played very well on a struggling team in 2023, is a great fit for the defense and provides the impact interior rusher they’ve been trying to acquire for years. Saving money in 2024 and 2025 by moving others on will create the platform for the Seahawks to make a big move to keep Williams in Seattle.

I think Jordyn Brooks will also be back. It makes sense for him to sign a short-term deal (one or two years) and re-enter the market. Why not work with the Head Coach who turned Patrick Queen from a bust to an all-pro? Coming back to Seattle on a prove-it deal, with a chance to move back inside to middle linebacker, could be good for both parties.

The Grubb offense seems to like pass-catching tight ends and with it being a light draft at the position, bringing Noah Fant back would also make sense. There’s a player in Fant and a reason why he was a top-20 pick. It’s unfortunate he’s not had many opportunities to act as a focal-point pass-catching weapon in his career. I think they roll the dice on him and try to pair him with someone like Cade Stover from Ohio State, who will surprise people with the way he tests at the combine, or Ben Sinnott.

8. Bobby Wagner won’t be back

Everyone appreciates and respects Wagner’s brilliant career in Seattle but it’s time to move on. My guess is he’ll re-join Dan Quinn and Ken Norton Jr in Washington.

I think Colby Parkinson will also move on and try to find a fresh start somewhere else and Damien Lewis will only return if the money’s right for Seattle and if he’s a fit for Scott Huff’s plan for the offensive line.

9. Free agency will be about value

I don’t think the Seahawks will go big-game hunting like they did last year, landing Dre’Mont Jones. Instead I think they’ll touch base with a number of players, with the idea of letting the market come to them in the second wave.

This is how they’ve operated for most of Schneider’s time in Seattle and it’s definitely how the Ravens typically go about their business.

It’s how all the good teams do their business, frankly. Free agency is a place where you pay a premium price for non-premium players. There’s a lot of value to be had, if you play the game and know when to strike.

For example, what kind of market will Carolina’s Frankie Luvu have? Could he be a cost-effective role player for Mike Macdonald? Could a veteran guard such as Kevin Zeitler provide toughness and leadership to a new offensive line? Will Tampa Bay’s Devin White need to take a prove-it deal? How much will Jonah Williams make as a free agent and could his ability to fit at guard or right tackle be vital for a team like the Seahawks, with health questions over Abe Lucas? There was reported interest in Josh Uche before the trade deadline, could he be an option? Is Josey Jewell someone who can help provide leadership and organisation next to Brooks at linebacker?

These are just a few names. It feels like there are plenty of players who, if they make it past the first wave, could offer genuine value. I think that’s what the Seahawks will aim for — with any serious money being invested in the trenches/front seven.

10. The Seahawks will come out of the draft with high grades again

Over the last three weeks I’ve been able to study some of the players I hadn’t previously been able to watch, plus review some others. There’s sufficient depth in rounds 2-4 to feel like it’s very possible for the Seahawks to come out with a haul, should they manage to trade down from #16 to fill the void until they pick at #78.

For example, Iowa State cornerback T.J. Tampa is a big-hitting, tone-setting player with good coverage skills and recovery speed. He fits the Seahawks mentality. Austin Booker at Kansas is a long, high-ceiling edge rusher with untapped potential. Safeties Malik Mustapha and Kitan Oladapo both wowed at times on tape and could help form a new, young, cheaper and more dynamic duo as the last line of defense. Linebacker Nathaniel Watson organised and led Mississippi State’s defense while chiming in with 21 career sacks as a blitzer. Interior offensive linemen Dylan McMahon and Jarrett Kingston could be very intriguing later on. At defensive tackle, Ruke Orhorhoro and McKinley Jackson both have the feel of potential Seahawks. Alabama receiver Jermaine Burton has a lot of the skills Seattle likes, while the Washington duo Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan could provide ‘BPA’ quality at a certain point in the draft. Both are underrated.

I can keep going. Zak Zinter at Michigan is a blog favourite. Emani Bailey’s Senior Bowl performance shone a light on a potentially dynamic third-down runner. Jack Westover was clutch every time the ball came his way. Byron Murphy is expected to test through the roof at defensive tackle. Chop Robinson has scary qualities as a pass-rusher and will be a steal if he lasts beyond the top-10. Payton Wilson plays with his hair on fire and there are a cluster of other linebackers — Cedric Gray, Edgerrin Cooper, Jeremiah Trotter and Junior Colson — who have the potential to start quickly.

It was also incredible re-watching T’Vondre Sweat’s Senior Bowl performance. The bad reps are what they are. The good reps were remarkable — he demolished interior linemen like he was competing against High-Schoolers. I don’t know if the Seahawks value the nose tackle position highly enough to take him very early — but his run defense grade was 92.0 in 2023 —- first among interior defensive linemen. His 12.8% stop percentage (number of times he was responsible for personally stopping the run play) ranked 2nd behind UCF’s Lee Hunter. His pass rush grade was an 85.3 —- seventh best among all interior defensive linemen (team mate Byron Murphy ranked first with a 91.5). His pass rush win percentage (15.3%) ranked sixth best, he had the second most batted passes at the LOS (6) and he ranked 11th for QB hurries (26). In true pass-sets, his win percentage increased to 24.5% (ranked fifth).

Fixing the run defense will be a priority for Schneider and Macdonald and it won’t just be solved by scheming. Baltimore gave up 4.5 YPC in 2023, the ninth highest average in the NFL. Their 109.4 YPG average ranked 19th highest, so just above average for the league. They gave up 121 rushing yards at 6.7 YPC against San Francisco and gave up 128 rushing yards against the Rams.

Whoever they draft, there’s enough quality here to believe we’ll be satisfied with their draft class for a third year in a row.

Sunday thoughts on the Seahawks and the quarterback position

February 18, 2024 /

Just a few things that are kicking around in my mind…

— Are John Schneider, Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb all referencing Drew Lock, despite the fact he’s a free agent, for two reasons? One, to make him know how much they want to retain him so that he feels wanted. Two, because if they do trade Geno Smith, they want everyone else to know how much they like him to avoid tipping their hand in the draft?

— I don’t know how anyone’s takeaway from Adam Schefter’s report on Smith’s contract wasn’t ‘the Seahawks are sending a message that they’re open to trading Geno’. As I said at the time, there was no reason for Schefter to quote-tweet himself adding the line on his value to potential suitors unless it was a reality. I think if you’re prepared to read between the lines — the Seahawks are very much open to offers. We’ll see if they get a serious one before March 18th.

— I thought this was interesting too — the flagship radio station, Seattle Sports, had John Schneider on air for a whole segment on the day Schefter reported the news about Smith’s contract. Not a single question was asked about Geno. I can’t believe they just forgot and suspect this was deliberate. If it was a formality that Smith is staying with the team, this would’ve been an excellent opportunity for Schneider to express so on the day the news broke about his contract. The entire subject was dodged. Again, read between the lines.

— I’ve felt since Schneider’s solo press conference that a trade was a distinct possibility. I think the biggest supporters of Geno have been most the vocal in building the case for his talent. Hugh Millen presented a number of counter statistics on KJR, painting a different picture. Not all of the issues are down to Smith, of course. But neither does he deserve to be completely absolved for average output in 2023 (and let’s not forget, he failed to hit a single escalator in his contract). Softy and Millen raised a reasonable point on the show. What if Schneider feels, after two seasons, he’s seen what Smith’s ceiling is and simply wants to try something else? Is that really so incomprehensible? Especially if he believes this is a quarterback class worth tapping into?

— Let’s also not forget that the Seahawks are not in a great cap situation. They’re $9.5m over the cap (effective cap space) this year and only have $22.5m to spend next year. It might not be the greatest 2024 saving to part with Geno ($13.8m) but if they’ve already made the decision to move on, they might as well get something (anything) via a trade than just cut him. It would also clear $33.7m off the books for 2025 — which could be important if you want to extend Leonard Williams or sign other free agents and manager your year-one cap hits.

— If the Seahawks do part with Smith, it wouldn’t be that difficult to set up a draft hedge. Mike Macdonald will be aware of Tyler Huntley from Baltimore while Joshua Dobbs had some relative success in 2023 and Sam Darnold and Tyrod Taylor are also free agents. None of the four will be expensive and could provide a cheap backup for Lock. That could get you into the draft, if the intention is to select a rookie and let them be the lead horse for the starting role. I know names like this might make you shudder but I don’t think enough people are entertaining the possibility that Seattle’s plan is to reset with a new, young QB in 2024 under a new, younger regime without the need for a well paid bridge.

— Trading down from #16 to fill out the board on day two feels inevitable. It’s hard to imagine Schneider waiting 62 picks to select in a class with attractive day-two options. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks manipulate the board to pad out their collection of picks before drafting the quarterback they want.

— I’ve noticed recently that I’m being called a ‘Michael Penix Jr hater’ despite mocking him to the Seahawks in my only two full projections so far. It’s weird because during the season I felt obliged to offer context to the rampant overboard praise he was getting — simply by highlighting the truth that he had a stretch in the season where his performance level dipped. Now, the reverse is true. I feel the need to start talking him up because things have gone the other way and people have gone right off him.

— Here’s the thing with Penix Jr — there are legit reasons to be excited about his potential. His arm talent is exceptional. It isn’t ‘good’ or ‘decent’. It’s exceptional. Do people realise how difficult this throw is?

I could post 15 other throws to make the same point. Possibly more. He is throwing to areas of the field, deep downfield, that most quarterbacks can’t even consider attempting to reach. And he’s doing it with supreme touch at times, as you see above. I’ve watched every game the top quarterbacks in the last three years have played, aside from three of Drake Maye’s and four of J.J. McCarthy’s (I will get to them). Penix Jr makes stunning throws.

So while there are concerns about the short and intermediate passes or the fact he’s not a mad improv creator who will extend a ton of plays and make magic happen — he can be a pocket-passing dynamo. Remember the Ron Wolf mentality — focus on what a player can be. Remember that Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 list a month before the 2017 draft. Remember that 12 years ago Russell Wilson was dismissed as a short quarterback and likely day three pick.

Penix Jr as a player sitting in the pocket and challenging opponents downfield could be thrilling to watch at the next level. He’s also a well respected leader, he elevated the Huskies to new heights, he’s very experienced and he has a fantastic relationship with the new offensive coordinator.

I might’ve been providing balance a few months ago — now it’s time to remind people why he’s a very viable option for the Seahawks.

— I noted the critical third down and scrambling statistics to highlight why J.J. McCarthy could be very appealing to teams. A quick reminder if you missed the graph — Penix Jr ranked second to McCarthy for on target 3rd and 4th down drop-back passes beyond the sticks. He ranked second in the same category when the conversion distance was more than five yards:

He also led the NCAA in PFF grade on play-action, led the NCAA in big time throws and ranked second for big time throws off play action.

The areas where he struggled were completion percentage when scrambling (an awful 23.3%) and completion percentage on third and long. The context for the third and long statistic, of course, was that he attempted a lot more third and long passes than the other quarterbacks. He attempted 60, Drake Maye was the only other QB to throw more than 50 (53).

So the one area where he isn’t good is scrambling. He excels in arm strength, play action, accuracy on 3rd and 4th down and big time throws. I’m not sure the scrambling aspect is enough to put the Seahawks off — or anyone else — and Penix Jr has gone from being overrated after the Texas game (legit pundits suggesting he could be the #2 pick) to suddenly being quite underrated.

— That said, look at Schneider’s quarterback history. Charlie Whitehurst was mobile and could get out of the pocket. Clearly Russell Wilson was exceptional on the move. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the best when scrambling. Alex McGough was mobile and Andy Dalton, who Schneider was said to be fond of in 2011, ran for 1611 yards and 22 touchdowns in college. Maybe it’s a big deal after all? What I would say is Penix Jr is a very good athlete — testing well for sprinting speed at the Senior Bowl and I know he can jump a 38 inch vertical after personally visiting the UW facility. Perhaps he can develop into a more effective scrambler? If not, it’s something we need to consider as it pertains to his fit — but the Seahawks just actively sought the Washington offense by hiring Ryan Grubb. They must like aspects of a system that doesn’t feature a lot of scrambling.

— Can we at least acknowledge that if the Seahawks draft Michael Penix Jr he would be uniquely positioned to start quickly given his relationship with Ryan Grubb and the familiarity he’d have with the terminology being used? Again, it feels like many people are letting their personal admiration for Geno Smith (not a bad thing, by the way) influence how they believe the decision makers will act. I’m not saying the Seahawks will definitely draft Penix Jr. I think you can make a compelling case for it though and that it’s plausible they’d be willing to start him quickly, believing they can get immediate value out of a cheap rookie contract (just as they did under Russell Wilson). That would be more useful than ever as they re-set their cap over the next year or two.

Just a few thoughts (and that’s all we’ve got for a while). Let me know yours in the comments section.

Robbie, Adam and I came together for a live stream earlier —- if you missed it check it out below!

Friday draft notes: J.J. McCarthy, Seattle’s approach at center and why trading down seems likely

February 16, 2024 /

Why J.J. McCarthy could be a high first round pick

McCarthy was an underwhelming watch on tape and it was hard to understand the first round buzz. Things became clearer this week.

Lance Zierlein tweeted about completion percentage among the draft class when scrambling:

This was interesting data but I wanted more information on third downs so went digging in the hope Lance might have the info. A few weeks ago I had a chance to speak with an incredibly well respected personnel man in the NFL and asked him about quarterback scouting. He said he would watch every third down throw a quarterback makes in college, then decide whether he wanted to watch any more. Whether you agree with that approach or not, it showed how much importance some scouts place on the ‘money downs’.

A Vikings fan named Nicholas Miller replied to my request with the following information that he had collated:

So there you go. McCarthy’s first down conversion percentage on third and 7 or longer is an astonishing 55.1%. None of the other big name quarterbacks in the draft can even get their percentage into the 40% range, let alone the 50’s.

Nicholas then shared data he had for ‘on target throws on 3rd and 4th down’:

When throwing past the sticks on 3rd or 4th down with +5 yards to go, Jayden Daniels has the best percentage (68.8%) followed by Bo Nix (65%) and McCarthy (64.7%). The others are some distance behind. However, when you refine the data to dropback passes only, McCarthy is well in front with a 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

When you then consider what Lance shared about production when scrambling, it paints an interesting picture. Being able to escape pressure, extend plays and throw on the run is such an important part of the modern game. McCarthy’s completion percentage on the run (71.4%) is again way beyond what anyone else achieved. Bo Nix is a distant second on 58.6% while Michael Penix Jr is all the way back at 23.3%.

If teams place a lot of emphasis on third downs and being able to create off script, the fact that McCarthy dominates in these two areas is telling. With many teams incorporating analytics and data into their scouting departments, it won’t be a surprise if several draft rooms have McCarthy rated very highly.

I’m not convinced it will carry quite the weight in Seattle. John Schneider seems to like a big arm to be able to drive the ball downfield and make explosive plays. McCarthy ranked 27th in college football last year for ‘big time throws’ (20). He doesn’t have a big arm and there are occasions on tape where his deeper throws fade at the end. He also has a slight frame and needs to add weight/strength.

However, I do think some teams — possibly the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders and Saints — could ensure McCarthy doesn’t even get to #16. It won’t be a surprise if the data here moves him into the top-10, with teams possibly preferring his style over Drake Maye — who was more erratic at North Carolina and didn’t perform as well on scrambles or third downs.

Some other interesting stats

Completion percentage when scrambling and third down conversions aren’t the only thing worth noting, of course. Play action is critical. Here’s how PFF graded the big name quarterbacks on play-action last season:

Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 93.1
Jayden Daniels — 92.7
Drake Maye — 86.4
J.J. McCarthy — 86.3
Bo Nix — 83.4
Spencer Rattler — 81.3
Caleb Williams — 70.8

Here are the number of ‘big time throws’ PFF charted off play-action:

Michael Penix Jr (#2 in the NCAA) — 18
Drake Maye — 7
J.J. McCarthy — 7
Caleb Williams — 6
Jayden Daniels — 5
Bo Nix — 5
Spencer Rattler — 3

This is quite a significant feather in Penix Jr’s cap if you want to run a lot of play-action. He’s clearly very good at it — receiving the highest grades on an individual level while also making almost three times more explosive plays off play-action than any of the other big name quarterbacks. I do think ‘big time throws’ are something the Seahawks will pay attention to, so here’s generally how PFF charted the overall number of BTT’s in 2023:

Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 43
Drake Maye — 34
Jayden Daniels — 29
Caleb Williams — 27
J.J. McCarthy — 20
Bo Nix — 20
Spencer Rattler — 12

Finally, here are the stats for ‘turnover worthy plays’:

Bo Nix — 5 (led the NCAA)
Jayden Daniels — 7
Drake Maye — 10
Spencer Rattler — 11
J.J. McCarthy — 11
Michael Penix Jr — 12
Caleb Williams — 18

What are the Seahawks looking for at center?

I went back and re-watched Jackson Powers-Johnson this week after a highly regarded Senior Bowl. I thought his time in Mobile was more mixed than originally thought and there are some slight concerns that also show up on tape. He doesn’t fire his hands as quick as you’d like, his frame is quite stocky and his movements initially can be quite stilted. He’s best wrestling and brawling on contact but I’m not sure he gets his angles right at the start of the play consistently enough.

I also started to wonder what type of center the Seahawks might actually want.

Powers-Johnson is 6-3 and 334lbs. Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff had Parker Brailsford at Washington last season and he’s 6-2 and approximately 280lbs. In 2022, Corey Luciano (6-3, 307lbs) started at center for UW. The Seahawks have used Evan Brown (6-2, 302lbs) and Austin Blythe (6-2, 298lbs). In Baltimore, Tyler Linderbaum has started the last two years and he’s 6-2 and 296lbs.

Brown, Blythe, Luciano and Linderbaum all ran excellent short shuttles and you’d expect the same of Brailsford.

Whether it’s John Schneider, Mike Macdonald, Grubb or Huff — they’ve all worked for a team with a center carrying a certain profile.

It does seem like there’s some consistency here to value leverage and agility rather than size. There are players in this class who could fit the profile with the required size/leverage advantages — Zach Frazier or Charles Turner for example. We’d need to see their testing numbers though. I think NC State’s Dylan McMahon is a key name to watch because he is definitely very athletic.

Olu Oluwatimi is also 6-2 and 309lbs so he also fits the leverage approach at the position. Maybe they’ll switch things up this year and go in a different direction but there’s enough evidence to think the Seahawks have a type and it isn’t a big, heavy, powerful center. It’s something to remember during this process.

In terms of defensive linemen, here’s something else to consider from Jeff Simmons:

Why trading down feels very likely for the Seahawks

You obviously need two to tango and any move down from #16 will require a trade partner. However, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks won’t at least try to trade down in round one.

The meat of this class is going to be day two, stretching into round four. There’s so much value there — and at positions the Seahawks have needs. There are a host of intriguing interior offensive linemen — Zak Zinter and Cooper Beebe look like plug-and-play high-performing guards but there’s serious depth behind them with the likes of Christian Haynes, Jordan Morgan, Brandon Coleman and Dominick Puni. I have Graham Barton, Jackson, Powers-Johnson, Sedrick Van Pran, Charles Turner, Zach Frazier and Dylan McMahon all graded for day two at center.

It’s a good range for defensive tackles too. T’Vondre Sweat, McKinley Jackson, Tyler Davis, Kris Jenkins, Michael Hall Jr and Braden Fiske should all find a home on day two.

Linebacker, currently, looks like a big need. Day two is where you’ll likely find Payton Wilson, Jeremiah Trotter, Edgerrin Cooper, Cedric Gray, Junior Colson and Curtis Jacobs — while I think Nathaniel Watson is also worth considering in this range but could last into day three.

I’m a huge fan of Malik Mustapha the Wake Forest safety and have given him a second round grade with the expectation he’ll go in round three or four instead. He reminds me of Budda Baker and I don’t think it’s a stretch to make that comparison. Meanwhile, I’ve placed Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo as my #3 safety with a round three grade after watching him this week. He’d be an ideal complement — big, strong, physical and fast. I also think he could go in the fourth round and present real value.

At pass rusher, Kansas’ Austin Booker is incredibly intriguing early on day three. Receiver is loaded with options if you wanted to add another young player to your group. I watched cornerback T.J. Tampa last night and he’s very interesting with an extremely physical style.

I can’t imagine John Schneider looking at this class and thinking he wants to draft once at #16 then wait 62 picks to select again, missing almost all of the sweet-spot. I think he’s going to want more stock between rounds 2-4.

There are obviously scenarios where you can’t turn down a great opportunity at #16. Chop Robinson is the one to watch I think. His get-off has to be seen to be believed. He has ideal size, great power in his hands and, whisper it quietly, he shares similar traits to Micah Parsons. He has game-wrecking potential and seems to be flying under the radar a bit because his production wasn’t great in college. The talent is very much there, however.

There are others too. Field Yates had Brock Bowers lasting to Seattle’s pick in his mock draft. I think there’s next to no chance of that happening but if it somehow did, you’d have to take him. Jared Verse would be another player you seriously consider ‘sticking and picking’. Some of the offensive tackles are very good in round one (but much will depend on Abe Lucas’ health and how comfortable you are taking a possible guard convert in the middle of round one).

Otherwise, trading down would be very appealing. Perhaps multiple times. Try to get back into round two. See if you can add stock in rounds three and four. This is a class that meshes well with Seattle’s needs — with a ton of Washington and Michigan players scattered throughout (we know the Seahawks have plenty of intel there) and lots of very attractive options with starting potential.

Acquiring extra stock also presents a better opportunity to take a chance on a quarterback. You might not want to do that with only three picks in the first three rounds. If you end up with five instead, you can address several needs then let the quarterback class come to you. If someone provides value who you like, whether that’s a Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr or Spencer Rattler on day two — or maybe a Michael Pratt or Jordan Travis on day three — it makes sense if you’ve built your stock and added other players first.

I know a lot of Seahawks fans grew tired of the team endlessly trading down a few years ago. I don’t think the likes of Robinson, Bowers or Verse will last to #16 — and players like Powers-Johnson and Troy Fautanu, for me at least, would not present good value (especially not compared to the linemen who will be available 20-40 picks later).

If they can find a partner, trading down feels extremely plausible.

The Jake Peetz addition is such a savvy move

It was revealed yesterday that Peetz is leaving the Rams to become Seattle’s passing game coordinator. He was the ‘passing game specialist’ in LA under Sean McVay.

It’s a great hire for two reasons. Firstly, Peetz was highly regarded as a viable offensive coordinator candidate this year and interviewed with the Buccs before they hired Liam Coen, in an attempt to bolster their hopes of retaining Baker Mayfield.

Here’s what Peter King wrote about Peetz before the hiring cycle began:

Jake Peetz, 39, pass-game specialist, L.A. Rams. “He’ll win every interview,” one peer told me. Former QB coach of the Raiders and Panthers, former offensive analyst for Nick Saban at Alabama, former OC at LSU. Well-respected by Sean McVay in his two years with the Rams. What impressed me is Puka Nacua telling me in October that he learned the Rams’ offense in long early-morning sessions with Peetz in May and June. Imaginative guy.

Secondly, this feels like the Seahawks wisely planning ahead. Schneider admitted before hiring Mike Macdonald that if they went with a defensive-minded Head Coach, they ran the risk of playing musical chairs at offensive coordinator. Such is the demand for any offensive play-caller who has even a modicum of success (see: Dave Canales).

If Ryan Grubb excels in Seattle he too will be in-demand. I think the hiring of Peetz is an attempt to get ahead of the game. Bring in a highly rated young offensive coach when the offense is being built. He’ll be across everything. Then, if Grubb is hired away by another team, you have your ready made replacement waiting in the wings.

This is what Detroit has with Ben Johnson and Tanner Engstrand. Now the Seahawks have it with Grubb and Peetz. They don’t just benefit from adding a talented coach from the McVay tree, they also have a contingency plan for the future if Grubb gets a top job somewhere else.

I’ll be on KJR talking about the Seahawks today at 11am, be sure to tune in!

Geno Smith won’t be cut today but question marks remain about the future

February 15, 2024 /

One question has been answered today but the nature of Adam Schefter’s ESPN report creates plenty of others.

Schefter revealed the Seahawks wouldn’t be cutting Geno Smith today, which isn’t surprising. There was no sense in doing that — a restructure was always more likely today which would’ve likely locked Smith onto the roster for 2024.

Instead, the Seahawks are not parting ways. For now, at least. There’s a new key date to focus on — March 18th, when a $9.6m roster bonus is due. That is the deadline for a trade. Either Smith will be dealt before that day, or he will remain with the Seahawks this year.

Schefter’s second tweet on the topic was interesting. Take a look:

File this one in the ‘no smoke without fire’ category. Schefter mentioning that Smith ‘represents value’ to ‘any other team that decides to reach out to see if they can acquire Smith’ says it all. There’s a reason why that was tossed out there.

I’ve been saying for a couple of weeks that I thought a trade was the most likely outcome. I don’t think it’s a certainty — the Seahawks aren’t going to give Smith away. It’s possible no attractive offers come in and the way Schefter’s report is framed, you’d imagine the Seahawks are comfortable with moving forward if that’s the case.

However, Schefter’s tweet almost feels like an appeal to give the Seahawks a call. They’re keeping their options open — which is the right thing to do. I do think John Schneider and Mike Macdonald being non-committal before today was telling and indicative of how they are thinking. I think their language might change now. Schneider is speaking on Seattle Sports today, in the first episode of his weekly pre-draft series. If the Seahawks are minded to check the trade market on Smith, Schneider will likely start talking him up.

Short of a clear-cut announcement though of Smith being ‘the guy’, I think the topic is set to drag on into the combine where serious trade discussions will begin. By then, we should know what’s going to happen. We don’t have long to wait.

I think the Steelers are a key team to watch. Atlanta are another. It should be an interesting two or three weeks. If a serious offer isn’t forthcoming, Smith likely stays and plays with the Seahawks. Let’s be clear though — the news today isn’t confirmation of anything definitive. The date next month is the key one to watch and I’d suggest it’d be a mistake to ignore the language in Schefter’s report.

If you missed Curtis Allen’s fantastic article earlier, taking a strategic look at the Seahawks off-season, be sure to check it out here.

Curtis Allen: A Strategic Look at the Offseason for the Seahawks

February 15, 2024 /

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

We recently discussed the 2024 Calendar for the Seahawks and it illuminated several critical dates and decision points the team will have to make as they navigate the roster through new leadership.

To better grasp what choices the team has before them – and the ultimate impact of those choices this year and into 2025 – we need to overlay the potential roster moves onto that calendar and match it to the salary cap situation the team is facing on a big-picture-level view. There are more critical decisions the team will have to make this year than in any recent season.

First, a brief review of how the team arrived at the point they are at. The team is currently over the cap, with $5 million of room they need to scrape together to get under before March 13. The team has some intriguing young talent on the roster in some key places but needs to refocus on adding talent and continuity in the trenches. A long-term plan at the quarterback position is also quickly becoming necessary.

At the moment, those opportunities are hindered because the team has $75 million in cap space committed in 2024 to Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Tyler Lockett – players with their best years behind them – and that is such a heavy number due to restructuring those three players last year to create space. The team pushed nearly $20 million on those three players’ contracts into future years and spent that space in an attempt to tip the scales in their favor.

They have a $31 million cap number for quarterback Geno Smith and clearly are evaluating whether they want to address the position this offseason.

Also, they traded away a precious second-round pick for Leonard Williams, who is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent in March.

It is obvious they were extremely aggressive in 2023, pushing all their chips to the center of the table.

The credit card bill now due in 2024 is pretty daunting.

Just to illustrate the path not taken, around this time last year we proposed our own aggressive plan that went in the opposite direction: moving on from the safeties, drafting a quarterback and clearing the decks for a more calculated spend on trench talent. In hindsight, that plan would have been preferable to what the Seahawks did and might not have resulted in a dramatically worse record. There is a considerable downside though: it might not have spurred the regime change that has gotten a tired fanbase so rejuvenated.

Back to reality. The work the Seahawks have to do is considerable. The way they attack this off-season will tell us a lot about John Schneider’s personal team-building philosophy as he steps out from behind a large shadow. Particularly in regards to planning ahead. The team has always strived to have one foot in the present and one in the future. But the last few years, the foot in the present has been the far heavier of the two and the future has suffered as a result.

So instead of just one main plan like we proposed last year, we are going to look at two plans — each with their own goals and philosophies. One with an eye to sustaining roster stability and consistency and one with a more aggressive approach that focuses on long-term success.

Why two plans? This is to bring to light the options available to the team. It is less about a black and white choosing of ‘Option A’ or ‘Option B’ and more about realizing the potential benefits and costs of decisions they make. I would fully expect the Seahawks to blend some of the choices from each option and forge a path of their own.

But first, we have to set a baseline and build a framework to work off of.

Establishing the Base Concept

As our calendar piece showed, there are key dates that are hard deadlines, both from the NFL and from the contracts the team currently has on the books. We need to visualize those dates and the cap room and other decisions that need to be made in order to grasp what is at stake.

To that end, we have included approximate cap numbers for tendering the Restricted and Exclusive Rights Free Agents, their draft picks and also a standard chunk of cap room for Practice Squad players. This gives us an idea of how much cap room the team will need to cover these eventualities but also when that room is needed, which is almost as important.

We also inserted some moves that need to be made in both plans. It will serve to highlight the more specific moves to each plan that are proposed.

A little housekeeping note: these numbers are not cast in iron. Even the dates are a bit flexible.

I pulled the numbers that are available and adjusted them to make sure only the top 51 players counted against the cap. There may be some injury settlement money coming for Adams and Mone and some incentives that have not been made public but those comes later and can be addressed on the cap by making a couple of simpler moves.

As for the dates? The Seahawks could announce an agreement with say Leonard Williams and not officially file the paperwork until March 15 in order to be compliant on March 13. But they would still have to make a corresponding move around that time to stay under the cap. Once the 2024 league year starts, you cannot go over the 2024 cap (but you can go over the next year cap all you like. Just ask the Saints).

Before we talk about the moves we put in, look at the Cap Room column. It is not pretty. The team starts out under water, hits the New League Year deadline of March 13 under water (which cannot happen) and barely gets above water at the end of the year after covering the basic costs.

It gets worse. Look at 2025’s cap number after these basic moves have been made. That $5.8 million number is not awful but neither is it a light at the end of a dark tunnel. Keep 2025 in mind as we work through our plans. It is critical, not just to maintain flexibility but to have some room to start paying their star draft picks as their rookie contracts expire.

The moves

Let’s start with the elephant in the room. The safeties.

We have long talked about how their contracts and lack of field-tilting play have affected the team as a whole. It is time to move on. It is not a grudge. Jamal Adams cannot stay healthy. He has ended the last three seasons on Injured Reserve. He has attacked his rehab with vigor and been a warrior trying to get back but proceeding with an almost $27 million cap hit in 2024 is absolutely untenable.

Quandre Diggs is a luxury the team cannot afford. Personally, I would love to see what a ball hawking safety like Diggs can do in Mike Macdonald’s defense. Unfortunately, the Seahawks would have to cap over $21 million for the privilege. Approaching him and asking him to cut down his $11 million salary to a number that fits their budget would likely be seen as insulting – that is how bad their cap situation is. It is best to shake hands, thank him for his time in Seattle and give him a chance to get a leg up on the market.

Keep in mind, the Seahawks bank over $27 million in cap room on these two cuts and still are scraping hard to keep their roster staffed. Times are that tough.

If that is the case, why is Leonard Williams on this list with a healthy number?

The Seahawks have been backed into a bit of a corner in two ways: First, trading a high pick for a player and cap room (that cap room was ‘spent’ in 2023) and only keeping him for ten games and letting him walk away is a bridge too far. Second, they badly need to keep investing in the trenches and Williams is that rare unicorn lineman that can fit in a 3-4, a 4-3 or some exotic package that Macdonald dreams up.

The 30-year-old Williams gets the contract Javon Hargrave got last year at 30: A four-year $81 million deal with a $23 million signing bonus. I structured it less aggressively than San Francisco, taking $9 million in 2024 and $15 million in 2025.

Bryan Mone is an obvious cut. The Seahawks carried him and his $3.675 million cap hit on Injured Reserve last year and they are too thin to afford him.

Nick Bellore has been everybody’s favorite cut in pieces like this for years. Why now then? Same reasons. A pure Special Teams player is something this team cannot afford. I also suspect Bellore was a Pete Carroll and Larry Izzo favorite (and rightfully so) and both of those coaches are gone.

I would class Drew Lock as an important, if not critical, player to retain. It is clear the Seahawks want to look at their options at the position and Lock is a player with a profile that John Schneider appreciates. It is notable that Mike Macdonald mentioned Lock in his introductory press conference, despite Lock being a free agent. There is no way that Lock’s contract status escaped Macdonald’s notice.

Lock is down in this plan for a two-year $15 million contract with a $6 million signing bonus. Before you drop your teeth, let me explain.

Quarterback is a very expensive position and the Seahawks are in a transition period. They need options with Geno Smith, the draft and to not be left in the cold if neither of those options produce.

Signing Lock gives them a familiar face who the team knows. He also would appear to fit not only Schneider’s profile but also Ryan Grubb’s offense, even if they do end up drafting someone this year. A $6 million bonus signifies that importance and gives him more up-front money than he has made in the last two seasons combined.

Here is where the contract is a bit inflated: it includes $5 million worth of incentives. If Lock reaches those incentives in 2024, they will not hit the cap until 2025, as he did not play much in 2023 and the incentives will be classed NLTBE (Not Likely to Be Earned).

If he does, his cap hit is a manageable $11 million for 2025 and the team has a ‘good problem’ on their hands. If they have drafted a quarterback this year who is ready to go in 2025, they can flip Lock to a needy team for a draft pick and toast to their smart planning. If he doesn’t, a cap hit of $6 million for a backup quarterback in 2025 is not an extravagance.

In the meantime, if they miss out on a quarterback or want to roll with Lock for another stretch, they can extend him with a contract structured not unlike Geno Smith’s current deal, with rewards, incentives and outs.

It is a contract well worth taking on in my opinion.

The tenders

Michael Jackson has been a good find for the Seahawks and tendering him at the $2.8 million Right of First Refusal level demonstrates how they value him. 2023 was a bit of a roller-coaster year for him. He had stretches where he was their best outside corner and stretches where he struggled to stay on the field.

The Seahawks can tender him and keep him on the roster and head into the rest of the offseason with security at cornerback, with Jackson, Woolen, Witherspoon, Tre Brown and Coby Bryant on the roster.

There is value in a defensive coach not having to rebuild every defensive position in one offseason. The team has work to do at safety, linebacker and defensive line. One challenge at a time.

If they discover more appealing options or simply decide to move on, they can rescind the tender and regain the cap room like they did with Ryan Neal last offseason.

Darrell Taylor is a real quandary. In three seasons, he has very good counting stats: 21.5 sacks, 57 pressures, five forced fumbles and 21 tackles for loss. He has done that despite never playing 50% of the defensive snaps. That is an efficiency not a lot of ends can claim.

And then there’s the flipside. He cannot get on the field more because the Seahawks do not trust him in non-pass rush situations. He has been atrocious in run defense, both in setting the edge and otherwise minding his gaps. Mainly because he seems solely focused on the quarterback to the exclusion of a vital chunk of his other duties.

He does not justify his second-round tender of $4.6 million at this point. But the Right of First Refusal at $2.8 million is a solid option. Leaning towards having an expendable player that can provide pass rush and seeing if the new coaching staff can reach him and round him out is a gamble I am comfortable with. An inside linebacker, a guard or a fourth wide receiver with the same profile? Probably would not tender. But pass rushers are a commodity you must have and a lottery ticket with little risk is one that can be justified. Again, they can pull the tender any time and move on without consequence if they decide.

Jake Curhan and Myles Adams are easy choices, as they have snaps of NFL experience in the trenches and will cost about $140-150k more than the lowest-salaried players on the team. Curhan is no superstar but every team needs a versatile plug and play option and seeing if the new administration can coach him up just a little more is worth keeping him on.

Patrick O’Connell is only being tendered because the Seahawks badly need depth at the linebacker spot. If he makes the roster out of camp, he will be the lowest-salaried player on the team and in the end not count anything against the cap.

There is our baseline roster and cap situation. It is not a complete picture by any means. What it does accomplish is it gets the roster to a starting point, while mostly cleaning up the salary cap and making sure a couple of key pieces stay in Seattle.

At this point, the team has a glaring hole at inside linebacker, needs more interior offensive line and tight end depth and a safety prospect would not hurt.

Yet not only are they out of room, they need to generate over $4 million in room before March 13 to get under the cap.

As for the draft? Yes, they could go young at the positions of need and plug them in as starters. That is an option. However, at some point they have to start thinking about investing in a quarterback to develop. Taking one in the top three rounds would really limit their options to get a 17-game starter at more than one position, let alone find four or five.

They have work to do.

We put together two plans of action.

One that honors a desire for some roster continuity and is less risky. When utilized properly by the new coaching staff and supplemented by a draft as good as 2022 or 2023, the team will be competitive in 2024 while not absolutely shredding the future cap. This plan counts on the stars on the roster to be stars while the newer players are adequate.

The other expresses a more aggressive approach. Cuts are plentiful and dead cap money is collected like it is going out of style. It is not a total teardown and rebuild by any means. Just more of a reshaping of the roster closer in line with a newer vision, while promoting competition and having more of a ‘build around your stars’ aesthetic to it.

Both plans generate the cap space needed to comply on March 13 and both end the year with a cap space surplus. Both plans also generated about $15 million cap dollars to spend in free agency but as you will see, one is a bit limited, the other has options galore.

We will build on the base chart by adding the appropriate moves for each (highlighted in green).

The Continuity Plan

As you can see, this plan incorporates the base moves and simply adds some restructures to pick up some more spending money.

D.K. Metcalf’s $13 million 2024 salary is restructured to a signing bonus. They gain $5.937 million of cap room this year and push the same amount to 2025.

Why would we advocate that move, when it grows Metcalf’s 2025 cap number to over $35 million? For a wide receiver? When the team is dealing with the ramifications of restructures right now?

Two reasons: One, 2025 is the last year of his current contract and the Seahawks can extend him and reclaim about $10-12 million of cap room. Two, Metcalf is exactly the kind of player you restructure. Young, productive and has his best years ahead of him still. Not older players who have been frequently injured and unproductive.

The Seahawks also commit to Geno Smith for 2024 in this plan as well. They restructure his $12.7 million salary and $9.6 million roster bonus and pick up $10.545 million this year and push that amount into 2025. In fact, if the Seahawks are dedicated to this idea, it would be beneficial to convert both and pay them out before March 13, so they have more free cap room when the feeding frenzy begins instead of waiting until the official March 18 date.

How do we justify buying on the credit card with this move? The team feels that Geno Smith will rebound in 2024 and with some willpower can convince themselves that eating about $19 million of dead cap in 2025 isn’t much worse than eating $17.4 million this year. They put off the inevitable parting of ways for a season and give Smith a properly coached defense and an offensive line (hopefully) free of major injury to work with and see if he rebounds to his nearly-70% completion, 30-touchdown form.

If and when the Seahawks draft a quarterback, that means they will carry three on the roster in 2024 with Drew Lock already signed. Is that a good use of resources? Yes, it is fine. The Seahawks started out 2012 with Tarvaris Jackson, Matt Flynn and that third-round quarterback from Wisconsin on the roster. It worked out just fine.

Why not move on from Tyler Lockett and Dre’mont Jones to save some cap room?

Lockett has an almost $27 million cap hit this year and that is not pretty. However, he has still been very productive. In 2023, two things happened that make people think he is in decline: He dropped a couple of very key catches and his deeper catches fell significantly. One of those things is not his fault. Geno Smith and the offense drew back to a quicker, shorter passing scheme on the whole and nobody was affected more than Lockett. His targets, catches and first downs all stayed consistent with his career norms but his total yards and touchdowns declined.

This is more a feeling than a logical point: Lockett has consistently accepted the Seahawks’ overtures to extend his contract early instead of waiting out the market and getting more money. While simultaneously being extremely productive.

As a consequence, in the last five or so seasons he was one of the best values in the Wide Receiver market. If I had to pick one Seahawks player on the roster to keep with an enormous boondoggle of a number, it would be Lockett. I wonder if the team feels the same way.

As for Jones, unless a team comes through with a fabulous trade offer, there is not much to be gained from moving on from him until 2025. I’ll also repeat what I said above about Darrell Taylor: they need pass rushers. Moving on from Jones would not net much. Let’s give him a season with a new defensive staff and see what he can do.

Before we talk about the $15 million spent on the market, scan down to the bottom and look at where we end up in this plan. There is less than a $3 million cap surplus left over and with all those moves, they end up $9 million over the cap in 2025.

They would be starting over 2025 just like this year – under water. They could extend D.K. Metcalf, cut Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett but that would pick up about $40 million of room and put them at about $30 million under the cap. There are other levers they could pull to get room but they come with a price.

That is not all that bad. However, it does limit how aggressive they can be in free agency in 2024. Just one really good player contract aggressively structured to get a low 2024 number would take half of that cap room and hammer their free spending ability in 2025.

Therefore, the $15 million in free agency they spend this year in this plan to get veteran linebackers, a tight end and some offensive line help to complete the team would be best served on players whose total contract will not require a large and long commitment.

Again, that is not bad. Shopping in the bargain aisle with our new leadership team might be a fruitful exercise.

My fascination with this plan is this: it would be very intriguing to see what this new leadership group can do with essentially the same group from 2023. The results from a change in the culture, the attitude, the intelligence as well as the adaptation to the NFL would be fascinating.

Seeing players like Devon Witherspoon, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boye Mafe, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet taking a big step forward while Geno Smith, Leonard Williams, Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf do not have to carry the team with just their skill would be appointment watching.

But it is a safer option. Now, let’s look at the riskier but potentially more rewarding choice.

The Aggressive Plan

This plan is aggressive alright. Quandre Diggs, Jamal Adams, Will Dissly, Geno Smith and Tyler Lockett are all asked to come into the VMAC and please bring their playbooks.

A way to think of this plan is ‘anyone we do not anticipate being on the roster in 2025 will not be on the roster for 2024’.

It is not an easy thing to do but skip to the bottom and have a look at the results. They end the season with over an $11 million cap surplus and go into next year with $65 million to spend.

This is the new administration putting their stamp on this organization.

Four of the five players cut will not be effective players when this new leadership group hits its stride and begins to seriously contend.

Jamal Adams has been released before June 1. That means the team eats his entire dead cap this year and realizes lesser savings now. It does open almost $28 million of room for next year.

How can they afford to ‘only’ pick up $6 million in a tough cap year? They stack some other transactions to get room.

Will Dissly is cut. He is another player that it could be reasoned was on the team and so well compensated due to Pete Carroll. He was a blocking Tight End and Special Teams stalwart. Dissly had a career-low 17 catches in 2023, or one catch per game. That is not enough to justify a $10 million cap hit.

With so much savings before the March deadline, the Seahawks can make some moves to set themselves up for an active free agency period.

Extending Julian Love on something similar to Grant Delpit’s three-year, $36 million contract establishes some continuity after making two big cuts at the position and gives the Seahawks a little more cap room. Love is known for his versatility. He can play nickel, in the box or in deep centerfield. Mike Macdonald used his safeties in a ‘mix and match’ manner in Baltimore to great success. Love becomes the new face of the safety group.

Colby Parkinson is a potential buy-low bargain that could be a winning investment. A two-year $10 million contract gives him some security and familiarity. The team gets a player whose blocking has greatly improved and can use his length and hands to be a real weapon. This contract gives him a chance to hit the market again before he is 27 with (hopefully) some much improved numbers.

We see the other side of the coin for Tyler Lockett. He is just too expensive to keep. There is a possibility of the Seahawks trading him away. His age 32 and 33 seasons at $15.3 million each year (about the #19-22 WR average salary) could intrigue some teams. The organization would likely approach him if a team made a firm offer and get his consent, as a show of respect for all his years of being a model NFL player. But also, given his service, they might just choose to cut him and let him make the choice of where he plays next.

Why trade Geno Smith? It could be for any number of reasons: his cap hit is tripling this year, the team feels he has reached his peak as a quarterback, or perhaps it is a combination of those things. Is Geno Smith better than Drew Lock right now, today? Yes, most certainly.

Is he so much better than Lock you can justify having him on the roster at $31 million over Lock’s paltry $4 million? Much tougher to say. That is why John Schneider makes the big bucks. But rationally, it is very persuasive. Particularly if you weigh 2025 and beyond more heavily than the present.

There is one more intriguing reason to trade him: Smith could net a decent draft pick at a time when the Seahawks do not have a second-round pick. That extra pick could be used on a long-term solution at the quarterback position or to just fortify the trenches.

How good could the pick be? We will discuss that in a moment.

Let us round out the discussion on the aggressive plan results first.

That $15 million to spend on free agents is far more powerful than the $15 million in the consistency plan. Why? It is backed up by the $11 million surplus and the $65 million in cap room available in 2025. They could aggressively structure a contract to fit nicely on the cap in 2024 and have a healthy hit in 2025 because they have to room to operate.

Furthermore, investing in young, talented, proven players at critical positions could be a force multiplier that makes younger, less experienced teammates better. And having those types of players could give you options in 2025-2027 if you want to rework their contract to fit another piece in. You know those players will be around and producing well in future seasons, justifying the gamble.

They have all kinds of options with that kind of flexibility.

Taking two or three big shots in free agency could be on the table. All of the sudden, possibilities like bringing in a top Guard and a top Defensive Tackle and surrounding them with young, talented draft picks could be a real opportunity.

They have buying power they could use to talk someone like Noah Fant into an extremely reasonable contract to reestablish value after a career-low year.

Or they could try something different. Save their cap, see what they have on the roster in the draft and fill holes in 2025.

A combination of options could work. Things happen in late summer and fall that could really benefit an opportunistic team with cap room. John Schneider has excelled in that area, acquiring impact players Carlos Dunlap and Jadeveon Clowney for very little in trade.

The benefit of this plan is this team could simultaneously get younger, free up a lot of cap room and gel as a team in 2024 and be ready to take a big step forward in 2025. It is very tempting to consider.

The downside? If the team does not draft well and/or Mike Macdonald cannot get his team on the same page without the benefit of an MVP-level talent on offense like Lamar Jackson, the team’s grip on perpetual 8-11 win seasons and playing meaningful football in December could slip.

Trading Geno Smith

In my calendar piece, I posited that the Seahawks may not have much leverage in a trade negotiation if a team wants to acquire Geno Smith. That five-day period between the league year starting and that roster bonus due date hitting does apply some pressure to be sure.

But as I was working on the aggressive plan, two things occurred to me that in the right circumstances, could swing the leverage back to a more neutral position in negotiations and return the Seahawks a decent pick in trade.

The first is this: leverage might be a bit overrated when you are specifically discussing the quarterback trade market.

To wit: In 2019, Calais Campbell was ready to move on from Jacksonville. His time had run its course and the worst kept secret in the NFL was he was available. He liked Baltimore and the Ravens traded a fifth-round pick for Campbell. In the four seasons since, he’s been a beloved locker room leader, played 60-65% of his team’s snaps, had 17.5 sacks and went to a Pro Bowl.

While last year, San Francisco was ready to move on from Trey Lance. He had been an absolute bust for the Niners. He had only started four games, was a 55% passer and struggled to grasp Kyle Shanahan’s play concepts.

The Cowboys traded a fourth-round pick for him, knowing that not only would he not play at all for them in 2023 (Cooper Rush was the #2 in Dallas) but also that Rush has a contract for 2024 as well and Lance has guaranteed money on his 2024 contract.

I understand those two trades are far from apples to apples. But I wanted to illustrate the gulf between quarterbacks and the rest of the position groups in terms of trade value.

Let me share one that is more germane to Geno Smith.

Matt Ryan was traded in 2022 to the Colts for a third-round pick, #82 overall in the draft.

The Falcons had almost no leverage in this trade to negotiate with. They had been deep in negotiations with the Texans on a Deshaun Watson trade and when the Browns made their huge offer (another team bidding hugely to acquire a quarterback I might add), the Falcons could not mend fences with Ryan. He requested a trade and reports said that he ‘picked’ the Colts. And what’s more, he had a big chunk of contract left to pay.

They still landed a third-round pick.

Matt Ryan’s stat line for 17 games of the 2021 season (age 36): 67% completion rate, 90.4 QB Rating, 233 yards per game, 20 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, and 40 sacks. $50 million in contract guarantees for 2022-23.

Have a look at this:

Geno Smith’s line adjusted for 17 games last year (his age 33): 64.7% completion rate, 92.1 QB rating, 242 yards per game, 23 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, and 35 sacks. $12.7 million in contract guarantees for 2024-25.

It is eerie how close they are. True, Ryan has an MVP trophy and a Super Bowl appearance on his resume but the last few years he had struggled to keep Atlanta competitive.

I am not saying the Seahawks are guaranteed to land a third-round pick for Geno Smith in a trade. You could argue the Colts were desperate, having gone through Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz. That they felt Ryan was the final piece of the puzzle. You could point to the fact that Ryan and the Colts had an awful season and parted ways after one year.

But we all know the quarterback position demands a premium.

The second point is this: cap space itself can be leveraged in trade negotiations. I referred in the calendar piece to the fact that the Seahawks could explore taking on some cap in exchange for a better pick in trade, just like the Giants did when trading Leonard Williams to Seattle.

In my aggressive plan above, the Seahawks have created enough cap space to spend some of it eating some of Geno Smith’s salary or roster bonus in a trade.

It is obvious why a team would consider this scenario, just as it was for the Seahawks when Williams came in. They want a top player but do not have the cap resources to pay his salary. They offer their draft stock as currency to complete a trade where they got to have their player and not pay him much at all.

And further on that, Smith’s contract is very attractive even as it is. There is no guaranteed money in 2025 right now. If the acquiring team really wanted to make some hay, they could convert whatever is left of Smith’s contract that the Seahawks do not absorb into a bonus and have a very solid veteran playing on the cap number of a depth linebacker. That could be an attractive proposition.

Who might need a quarterback and are not flush with cap space? Who might be able to talk themselves into trading for a stopgap solution to run with the veterans they have whose clock is ticking a bit?

Pittsburgh. Las Vegas. Atlanta. Maybe even New England.

Maybe the Denver Broncos. Actually, scratch that. Denver might not even take Seattle’s call.

I am not arguing that the Seahawks are going to break the bank in a Geno Smith trade. I am just reasoning out a scenario.

If John Schneider can box clever with his roster and cap space, there just might be an opportunity to score a good pick in trade and advance his team’s aspirations even further. And more quickly.

Concluding Thought

When a team has little cap room to start with and has traded away their second-most prized draft asset, there is an easy tendency to sigh and reckon the team’s hands are tied this year and we will just have to wait until next year to get excited about a more ambitious plan.

I hope I have given you some options to think about and consider.

What do you think? Which plan would you choose if you were forced to? Which elements of the plan would you modify? Let me know in the comments section.

Thank you for reading.

« Older posts Newer posts »

© 2025 Seahawks Draft Blog

Theme by Anders Noren — Up ↑