Author: Rob Staton (Page 183 of 425)

1. Trysten Hill could be in play with their first pick

The Seahawks love traits. They’ll take a guy who could be great and coach them up. Trysten Hill emphatically fits the bill. He’s as explosive as Ed Oliver. The thing is, Hill’s 6-3 and 308lbs not 6-2 and 287lbs. He had arguably the single best workout of any player at the combine. His drill work was sensational. He flashed incredible movement, change of direction and quickness. The Seahawks like length (+33 inch arms) and agility. Hill has 33.5 inch arms and ran a brilliant 4.38 short shuttle. He’s as good as any of the top rated defensive linemen in this deep class but could last into range because he ended up in the coaches doghouse at UCF. That didn’t put off the Seahawks when they drafted Christine Michael in 2013. Hill’s exactly the type of player they’ve targeted in the past and would give the Seahawks a chance to land a top defensive lineman from this great class without picking in the top-15.

2. Wide receiver is another option with the first pick

If the Seahawks trade down into the late 20’s, the 30’s or even the 40’s — that could be the range where a receiver starts to make sense. It’s not a good year if you want to take a receiver in round one. There might be zero wide outs with legit first round grades. Yet there are 18 at the combine who ran a 4.4 or faster and that’s what Seattle likes. In the 20-40 range the likes of Deebo Samuel, Parris Campbell, Marquise Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, N’keal Harry and others might come off the board. We might see a rush in the 20’s but it could last a little longer.

3. There are great big nickel options this year

This draft is stacked with safety prospects who can play nickel. A lot of the top safeties in college have been converted in recent years. Amani Hooker, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Johnathan Abram — they all spent a ton of time playing in nickel. This is the perfect draft to try and replace Justin Coleman with a fast, tough defensive back prospect. Hooker might be the pick of the bunch but Marvell Tell, Gardner-Johnson, Abram, Marquise Blair, Darnell Savage, Juan Thornhill and several others warrant consideration too. The range? Rounds 3-4.

4. Dru Samia screams perfect run game fit

If you said Samia and Trysten Hill were top-50 picks in this draft I wouldn’t argue. Samia is fantastically physical and does an exceptional job as a run blocker. He drives defenders off the LOS to create lanes but also squares up brilliantly and keeps everything in front. He can progress to the second level, combo-block, pull around and block on the move. He finishes and constantly plays with an edge. He wants to hit you and leave a mark. I don’t know whether the Seahawks will make an early pick on the O-line after signing Mike Iupati and D.J. Fluker but Samia would be a fine choice.

5. West Virginia are a Seattle pipeline

Will Grier’s deep-throw ability, Trevon Wesco’s credentials as a sixth linemen, Gary Jennings’ speed and chunk-play ability. It’s no wonder John Schneider attended the Oklahoma vs West Virginia game. All three of the names above could be on Seattle’s radar and it won’t be a surprise if they bring in multiple prospects from WVU.

6. It’s time to get a full back

And specifically, it’s time to draft Alec Ingold from Wisconsin. He’s an old-school punisher with a willingness to play special teams. Trade down, get a day three pick and write Ingold’s name on it.

7. They will add a pass rusher and a defensive tackle in free agency

They’re meeting with Caraun Reid and need to find someone to fill the Tony McDaniel role. They could also do with adding another pass rusher — although the options are getting thin. Is there a chance to land Justin Houston or Ziggy Ansah? They’re the two big names left on the market but could be expensive. They could still add a receiver (eg Jordy Nelson or Jermaine Kearse) but cheap additions to the D-line seem to be the last domino’s to fall in free agency. That said, they need to try and protect their comp picks. And for that reason, they might be willing to bring back Dion Jordan and trust Rasheem Green and Jacob Martin take a step forward. That would put pressure on finding help in the draft but it is a good D-line class.

8. A prediction on Frank Clark

They agree terms on an extension in the not too distant future. Dee Ford’s trade and signing helped set the parameters for a deal. They should be able to work this one out. The sooner they get this one done they can move on to Jarran Reed, Bobby Wagner and — hopefully, eventually — Russell Wilson. That last one will be the trickiest to conquer and could have a major impact on Seattle’s 2019 draft if they fear the worst on a long term deal.

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Yesterday we discussed how Seattle’s off-season was right on track with the minor exception of losing J.R. Sweezy.

Today, they took it up a level — re-signing K.J. Wright and D.J. Fluker and adding Mike Iupati. Three key and important deals. Here’s why:

Linebacker depth is strong

The weakest position in the draft is linebacker. Devin White and Devin Bush will be top-20 picks. Mack Wilson will go in the first two rounds. After that? There’s not much to get at.

The Seahawks were highly unlikely to get a starter in the draft. As noted in our free agency primer — they had to have a plan at the position. Re-signing one of Wright or Kendricks was vital. Getting both is a huge plus — especially with Wright, Kendricks and Bobby Wagner all missing games in 2018.

Now they can ignore the linebackers in the draft altogether if they want to and focus on other positions.

Plus — Wright and Kendricks are quality players.

Retain consistency on the O-line

It’s disappointing that Sweezy departed but re-signing Fluker was a must. No other player did more to set a physical, imposing tone on offense. The O-line created a much more physical offense in 2018 as the Seahawks regained their identity.

There’s been so much change on the line over the years and it hasn’t helped. Replacing one starter is manageable. Iupati is familiar with Mike Solari during his time in San Francisco and should be able to slot into the starting left guard spot. He’s clearly not quite as productive as he was earlier in his career. However, the Seahawks witnessed the benefit of experience last year. Rookie O-line starters tend to struggle. Now they won’t feel any pressure to replace Sweezy in the draft. They could still go O-line early — but it isn’t a must.

Also — if you’re not aware by now, the Seahawks love run blocking offensive linemen. Pro Football Focus ranked Iupati as the sixth best run blocking guard (+300 snaps) last season.

Don’t lose any comp picks

At the moment they’re collecting extra 2020 picks nicely. If they avoid adding outside free agents and stick to players who were cut — they could have 10-12 picks next year. That would make a nice change after two years of limited stock.

They’re currently projected to gain a third, fourth and two sixth round picks.

What does it mean going forward?

The Seahawks are almost there. They could do with adding another pass rusher. We’ll see how that market develops with still a handful of veteran options available. They could do with adding another defensive tackle in the Tony McDaniel style.

Then it’s just a case of drafting well. They’ll need to create picks by trading down from #21 (possibly multiple times). The draft is strong at receiver, tight end, guard, defensive line and safety — plus there are plenty of tall/long cornerbacks.

Adding the likes of Trysten Hill (DT, UCF), Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma), Trevon Wesco (TE, West Virginia), Gary Jennins (WR, West Virginia), Amani Hooker (S, Iowa), Marvell Tell III (S, USC) and one of the multiple cornerback options would set the Seahawks up for a positive season. And they may just still consider adding a quarterback like Will Grier (QB, West Virginia).

Whoever they ultimately target — they’re very close to being able to focus on the draft and re-signing the ‘big four’ of Russell Wilson, Frank Clark, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed to extended contracts.

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The Seahawks are right on schedule in free agency, with only one small hiccup.

Nothing has been a surprise so far. On January 27th we listed a bunch of predictions. We then followed this up with our free agency primer. Included were the following:

— Mychal Kendricks will re-sign
— Earl Thomas is done in Seattle
— Check out the kicker market
— The Seahawks won’t make a free agency splash
— The priority will be retention not addition

This was never going to be an off-season where the Seahawks came out and blew everyone away. They are still in the midst of a re-set.

The biggest dilemma, as we’ve discussed so much and now others seem to be latching on to this too, is the ‘big four’ out of contract players in 2020. How to re-sign Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed is the puzzle to solve. The secondary issue was keeping the new core together and adding where possible.

The only minor issue so far is losing J.R. Sweezy. His deal with Arizona hasn’t been officially announced yet, by the way. Let’s assume he does finalise that move.

They can still re-sign D.J. Fluker. The way he’s petitioning on Twitter suggests he isn’t getting close to the market he hoped for. If nobody steps in this week, he might be more inclined to return to the team where he knows he’s a good fit.

They re-signed Mychal Kendricks today. That’s a major positive. This is not a good draft for linebackers. If they lose K.J. Wright, they won’t be scrambling around for a replacement. Kendricks is also an extremely talented player and a very capable starter. He’s only 28 years old and could be a longer term player for the Seahawks. It’s safe to assume Pete Carroll has some insight into his legal situation and that there’s a good chance he’ll be free to play in 2019.

They signed a kicker. Jason Myers isn’t a sure thing by any stretch. He’s not Robbie Gould. The Seahawks cut him last year in order to roll with Sebastian Janikowski. However, he made a pro-bowl in 2018 and is a good age (27). They made an investment to try and solve a problem and didn’t, like the previous two years, simply ‘get by’. They want to play games tight. It was time to spend money on a kicker.

There’s still an opportunity to sign a pass rusher. Plenty of names remain available. The first wave of free agency is where good or even average players get paid elite salaries. When things calm down next week, that’s the time to make a move. If the Seahawks can add a pass rusher and re-sign Fluker they can focus on the priority of re-signing the big four. They’ll be set up for the draft and anything else in free agency will be a bonus.

They’ll also protect their comp picks.

It’s still too early to say with any certainty but things are starting to take shape for the draft. We know they’ll trade down from #21. We also know there’s plenty of depth at tight end, receiver, guard, nickel/safety and the defensive line.

Losing Sweezy puts a greater emphasis on the O-line (especially with limited remaining options on the open market). Yesterday I suggested Dru Samia could be a target. Don’t be surprised if some teams have him graded higher than he’s currently being projected. Go and watch him against Alabama. Samia is the real deal. Teams interested in him — and the Seahawks could be one — might not want to wait to see if he’s there on day three. Rounds 2-3 is not out of the question for Samia. He will likely have a variety of grades but some teams will rate him highly.

Assuming they’re able to collect picks in rounds 2-5 — they should be able to address their other needs too. Trevon Wesco would be an option at tight end and might last a bit longer than the likes of Drew Sample, Dawson Knox and Josh Oliver. Trysten Hill is going to provide the best value on the D-line in this draft if he lasts beyond round two. And there are a long list of tall, long cornerbacks and 4.3/4.4 runners at safety with experience playing nickel (such as Amani Hooker and Marvell Tell).

Nobody should’ve been expecting a splashy start to free agency with the Seahawks ‘going for it’ — throwing money around to accelerate their re-set. This was always going to be more than a one off-season project. Wise, cost-effective additions and good drafting is the key.

The elephant in the room has always been the need to solve the Wilson, Wagner, Clarke and Reed dilemma. That will have their full attention soon enough.

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J.R. Sweezy is signing with the Cardinals

So much for keeping the O-line together. Now they need at least one replacement. D.J. Fluker, meanwhile, posted some vague semi-angry tweets. He also retweeted a fan calling out Pete Carroll, demanding he stop wasting time and re-sign Fluker.

This is a difficult situation for the Seahawks. You’ll hear people say it’s a good thing Sweezy moved on. They’ll hand pick the snaps where he wasn’t great in pass-pro and suggest this is no great loss.

Seattle’s line did more than anything else to re-establish the identity in 2018. They set the tone. There’s a reason Pete Carroll announced it was a priority to keep both guards. Neither Sweezy or Fluker is flawless. They ‘fit’ for this team though and helped establish the leagues most productive running game.

At the same, they wouldn’t and couldn’t overpay for two players who they picked up as cheap free agents. They had to wait this situation out and try to get some value because both Sweezy and Fluker have had injury issues in the past.

So who replaces Sweezy? They could go back in for T.J. Lang but at what cost? The rest of the free agent linemen are unappealing. There are options in the draft but Seahawks fans know by now how difficult it is to plug in a rookie starting offensive linemen.

Even so, it might be the best and most cost-effective solution. One name stands out to me. Oklahoma’s Dru Samia. Tough and physical against the run. Angry. Extremely aggressive and carries the same kind of intensity as Sweezy. He squares everything up and blocks to the whistle and beyond.

He’s not the only option but he’s one to keep an eye on. Boston College’s Chris Lindstrom is the best physical match to Sweezy. Samia is nasty though.

How do they replace the others?

Akeem King will get a chance to replace Justin Coleman but keep an eye on a deep class of fast safety’s. A lot of the safety’s in the draft played nickel in college. There will be ample opportunity to add someone who can fit into that role. I’ve watched three games of Iowa’s Amani Hooker and came away incredibly impressed. USC’s Marvell Tell III also makes a lot of sense. You could add several others to the discussion too.

Losing Shemar Stephen is no big loss with Poona Ford playing so well as a rookie. Sweezy we talked about above. Losing Mike Davis is a shame but they should be able to find a #3 running back. Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo or Penn State’s Miles Sanders could make sense.

Brett Hundley is joining Sweezy in Arizona. The Seahawks already signed Paxton Lynch.

The Seahawks have had a quiet start

This is a positive thing so far. Sweezy is probably the first free agent they’ve lost and might’ve expected to keep.

The first wave of free agency is simply a chance to overpay for middling talent. The elite players barely ever reach the open market but elite salaries are still handed out.

We’ve been saying for weeks the Seahawks don’t have the money for a ‘splurge’ and so it proved. Really though, they probably weren’t going to indulge anyway. They are still in a re-set.

Price tags will start to drop now. There are still several intriguing players available. The key is to get value and build a competitive roster — not blow most of your remaining cap on one player.

Let’s point this out again — the Seahawks don’t have much money to spend. Even with all the spending that’s occurred they’re only in the middle of the pack for available cap room. They have about $30m available and can create a little more when they cut Kam Chancellor.

At the moment one player on the open market might cost $13-17m. That’d be half your cap space. They were never going to be big players in the first wave of free agency. They have a small number of contracted players for 2019 and they need to fill out their roster.

Earl Thomas is getting a wake-up call

Why couldn’t the Seahawks get a first round pick for Earl Thomas? Because of the current situation. Thomas has an inflated view of his own value. His high demands are clearly not being met and teams are happy to look at alternatives. Landon Collins, Tyrann Mathieu and Lamarcus Joyner all have deals. Earl? Sat, waiting.

His options are shrinking and teams like the Niners and Cowboys appear happy to wait for him to accept the situation and sign on their terms.

While many complained at the Seahawks for refusing to ‘pay the man’ — the rest of the league refuses to do so too.

One of three things will happen now. Either Thomas will win the day and one of the few remaining teams interested will pony up to get him. He won’t get $15m a year though like he wanted. The second option is he will accept the situation and sign in Dallas (hometown) or San Francisco (revenge mission). This seems unlikely because Earl’s pride will take a hit. The third option is he sits at home for weeks and weeks like the safety’s a year ago until he comes to the realisation that actually, he isn’t valued as highly as he thought.

And no, he won’t be coming back to Seattle. That ship sailed ages ago.

What is the key for Seattle?

Wait it out with D.J. Fluker and hope that you can come to an agreement that suits both parties. Wait it out with Mychal Kendricks and K.J. Wright and try to get them back.

Then it’s a question of where the value is. Does a receiver come into play because the value dropped to a point where you’re interested? Are any of the tight ends appealing? Are one of these pass rushers going to become available in a range where you feel satisfied in adding them?

Free agency is about rounding out your roster sufficiently and setting up your draft. That is what Seattle will do.

What is the priority now?

The same as it was two days ago. Re-sign your guys (the ones left) and try and tackle the 2020 dilemma of the ‘big four’. We’ve been talking about Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed being the big problem since the end of the season. That’s clear for all to see now. We have absolute clarity there.

Can you get any of these guys signed up? Can you have at least three signed up by the end of the year? And if deals with any of the four are impossible or highly unlikely — get some value for them now.

Which names on the open market appeal?

Brandon Marshall (Linebacker) — tested well in the short shuttle at his combine and would fill a hole at a good price if they lose Wright and Kendricks

Clay Matthews, Bruce Irvin (EDGE) — all have enough juice left to play on a one-year deal and offer some help to the pass rush

Tyrell Williams (Receiver) — he has the height (6-4) and speed (4.4) they like, he makes big plays downfield and surprisingly he’s still available (one year prove-it deal?)

Daryl Williams (tackle/guard) — liked him in college and could possibly fill a hole at right guard if Fluker moves on

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Feel free to use this as an open thread for free agency. If anything significant occurs involving the Seahawks, I’ll publish a new article.

I suspect, however, that their priority will be to re-sign the likes of D.J. Fluker and J.R. Sweezy and let the market come to them.

As a prelude to the market opening, I wanted to discuss Seattle’s recent decision making. Can they be accused of short-term planning?

It goes back to the 2017 season. Perhaps out of desperation and not wanting an era of football to be defined by an interception on the one yard line — and in a chase for redemption — they were very aggressive.

The end was coming. They could probably sense it. There had been talk about Richard Sherman’s future and a possible trade. Within a year a reset was going to be required. So why not have one last real go for a Championship? Luke Joeckel was given $7m to try and help fix a bad O-line. Eddie Lacy was given $4m to try and provide a solution at running back. They pursued and nearly signed T.J. Lang to a big contract.

This was all just the start.

What followed was almost a desperate attempt to capitalize on an opportunity.

They traded for Sheldon Richardson, giving up a second round pick on a one-year rental purely because their top pick Malik McDowell was out indefinitely. Then they traded second and third round picks to Houston for Duane Brown to try and secure the left tackle spot when starter George Fant hurt his knee.

The Brown move has paid off because he was re-signed. Richardson was not — for no compensation. It was practically the most expensive one year rental imaginable. When you spend a first round pick, as Seattle did on Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham, they either have time to run on their deals or they’re extended. Neither happened with Richardson. And he walked, for free.

You wouldn’t be wrong in criticizing or praising the moves. After all, there’s nothing worse than a Championship caliber team drifting. The Packers wasted years of Aaron Rodgers because they sat on their hands, only winning one Championship as a consequence. Seattle was bold and ambitious. Also, reckless. They placed themselves in a market as aggressive buyers and bought at a high price.

This was arguably understandable short-termism. Merely a team wishing to give itself the best possible chance of success.

What has followed though, is a lot more contentious.

Why did the Seahawks keep hold of Earl Thomas, while knowing full well 2018 would be his last season with the team? Clearly they didn’t want to ‘sell low’. However, the market determines a players value. If the offers were only in the second or third round range, was it not better to get something rather than nothing for a player you had no intention of keeping?

They stuck to their guns and played out the contract. He’ll walk for free and if they sign any free agents over the next two weeks, the chances are they’ll get zero compensation for a player who will be coveted on the market.

Did they keep Thomas because it benefited them in 2018? Probably. But that’s short-termism. Why not get a pick, even a mid-rounder, and add someone who can be part of your roster for years to come?

Is that hindsight or fair comment?

The Frank Clark situation is a little bit different. Clearly they want to keep him — which is the big difference between Clark and Thomas. Yet how likely is a deal?

Presumably Clark and the Seahawks are not close on a new contract. That’s why Jay Glazer is dropping rumors about the Bills and why Clark’s agent is texting Ian Rapoport to announce live on the NFL Network that Clark won’t sign his tag or turn up to training camp.

With Russell Wilson and Bobby Wagner also unsigned beyond 2019 (plus Jarran Reed), the chances of a second tag for Clark are slim. So right now, as things stand, he will walk in 12 months for only the outside chance of a third round comp pick in two years time.

So either the parties are close and just need to work through the process (still possible, let’s acknowledge that) or there’s a difference between the two parties severe enough for the battle to enter the realms of the media. If it’s the latter, they need to seriously think about getting the best offer for Clark.

Keeping him in 2019 might help the team this year. Aren’t they better off trying to get value now, however, before adding young talent that could be with the team for 4-5 years at a cheaper cost?

Is it not time to start preempting inevitable departures (if that’s what Clark is) and make some deals? Even if, sometimes, you don’t get amazing value?

I hate using the Patriots as an example because they are unique and masters of their own philosophy. Loads of teams try and fail to mimic them. But this is a team very prepared to ‘only’ get a second round pick for Chandler Jones and a third round pick for Jamie Collins. They also received generous first round picks for Deion Branch and Richard Seymour. The market is what the market is.

For two years the Seahawks have had weak draft stock. A year ago they had to trade down because they had #18 and nothing until round four. This year they need to trade down because they have four total picks. They don’t have the draft stock to replenish but they keep losing talent for zero (Thomas, Sherman, Paul & Sheldon Richardson, Graham) or very little (Bennett) compensation.

The salary cap era of football is developing all the time. Currently, we’re seeing players demanding more as the cap rises and being willing to roll the dice with multiple tags. Players are less inclined to ‘do deals’ to stay with a certain team. The teams and owners are described as capitalist thugs trying to keep players from getting what they’re due — and yet the cap rise isn’t necessarily keeping up with the massive rise in cost for quarterbacks, defensive linemen, receivers and offensive linemen. Even if you want to re-sign players — it’s difficult.

Cap challenges are harder than ever. Being willing to churn, while retaining an increasingly smaller core, appears to be the key to consistent success. That and good drafting.

Nobody wants to see popular players like Frank Clark leave. But it might be time for the Seahawks to plan to ‘win forever’ not just the next season. They need to start getting value for players who move on.

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I’m going to guess what’s going on here. You decide if you think this is fair (and whether you agree with the conclusion).

I think the Seahawks have a number in mind for Frank Clark. The offer isn’t as high as he would like.

It’s possible (but who really knows?) that the rumoured ‘interest’ from other teams (including Buffalo) was an attempt through the media to just let the player know what a possible alternative looked like.

(And if the Bills weren’t interested, or felt they were being used in negotiations, it makes sense for them to end the rumour immediately as they did).

In turn, we now see this tweet emerge coincidentally during the NFL Network’s ‘pre-free agency’ show…

On #Seahawks pass-rusher Frank Clark: He won’t be signing his franchise tag or showing up to training camp unless the Seahawks give him the deal that he has earned, I’m told. If they don’t, they’ll only have him for another 16 games… when other top FAs are up, too.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 10, 2019

This, to me, looks like the counter. Seattle’s leverage is a possible trade. Clark’s leverage is he can walk in a year.

Another negotiation being played out in the media.

What does it all likely mean? Talks aren’t close on a new deal, essentially. And while the Seahawks clearly don’t want to lose Clark —- they can ill afford another player to leave the club without compensation.

It makes sense to see what’s out there. Possibly nothing appealing. For every Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack trade, there’s a lukewarm market for Earl Thomas or Antonio Brown. Trade value is difficult to project.

With four key players all reaching free agency in 2020 (Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Jarran Reed and Clark), there’s a reason why the tweet above doesn’t even reference a second tag. It’ll very likely belong to Russell Wilson.

This is why this is such a challenging off-season. And it’s why some difficult decisions need to be made.

Nobody wants to see Clark traded. But how much do you want to see him leave in free agency next year?

Are the Bills interested in trading for Frank Clark? According to Jay Glazer they are (and they might not be the only team).

Well, Dan Morgan worked in Seattle and is close to John Schneider. There’s interest around Frank Clark from them and others RT @swailes_robert: @JayGlazer Now there are three guys I’d be happy for the Bills to go after.

— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) March 8, 2019

It seems unlikely that the Seahawks would be willing to trade Clark. Pete Carroll has said multiple times, quite firmly, that Clark will be with the team next year. Situations can change, of course. Yet Clark has developed into an integral part of the roster. He’s one of their blue chip players. He’s also clearly committed to Seattle considering he’s spent the last few days pitching to free agents like Landon Collins and Kwon Alexander on Twitter.

According to Jason La Canfora there’s nothing in the Clark/Bills link.

It’s also possible this rumour is in part an attempt to flush out Clark’s representatives. Don’t want to get serious about a deal? We’ll move you, possibly to the team Antonio Brown didn’t want to go to. It’s that time of the year where a lot of bidding is done via the media.

A trade probably isn’t going to happen. The Bills, or anyone else, would have to offer an attractive deal and be willing to pay Clark a mega-contract. The Seahawks if they were to lose Clark would create a major hole on their roster. They’d also be losing a player in his prime (he doesn’t even turn 26 until June).

Still, the point of this blog is to consider situations. What you’re about to read is a great big slice of shameless rosterbation.

What kind of a deal would potentially make sense for both the Bills and Seahawks?

Firstly, any trade isn’t going to be worth more than the cumulative value of the #9 overall pick and Buffalo’s 2020 first round pick. That’s what the Bills would have to pay if they signed Clark to an offer sheet under the non-exclusive franchise tag.

That’s the absolute maximum price. The Bills will be looking for a cheaper trade.

Remember, the idea here is to find something that might work for both teams. So here’s what I think might appeal:

Buffalo trades: #9 (R1), #40 (R2), #75 (R3), #113 (R4)

Seattle trades: Frank Clark, #21 (R1)

Why this might work for the Seahawks
Instead of having four 2019 picks they have seven. They fill out their board and also acquire a rare top-10 pick. While they’d have to replace Clark, they’d suddenly have an extra $17m in cap space to do so (plus plenty of ammunition in the draft). This would also solve one of the potential 2020 problems with Clark, Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed all set to be out of contract.

They could spend their top pick on Ed Oliver to replace some of the rare athletic dynamism missing in Clark’s absence. They might even be able to trade down from #9 to get Oliver. With the free cap space they could target Anthony Barr or one of the other EDGE rushers. They could even add a couple of free agent pass rushers.

You’d also have an excellent haul of picks in rounds 2-5 to make the most of the great depth within this draft class.

A final point — unless they do a long term deal with Clark he can leave for free in 12 months time.

Why this might work for the Bills
Buffalo needs a pass rusher but they also need to help support Josh Allen. Trading from #9 to #21 still enables them to target a receiver or offensive linemen in round one. They could also choose to try and replenish some of their lost stock by trading down. So while they’re taking a significant hit (losing #40 and trading out of the top-10), they’re not completely blowing their 2019 draft for Clark.

Furthermore, the Bills currently have two fourth round picks and two fifth round picks. So trading some of their mid-round stock is less of a problem. From this deal they’d acquire Clark (and have to pay him handsomely) but they’d still have #21 (R1), #132 (R4), #148 (R5) and #159 (R5).

People will want to fleece the Bills in any potential deal. That isn’t realistic. And while you might only make a trade if it’s massively weighted in Seattle’s favour, trades generally happen when there’s a legit reason for both clubs to make a move.

I have no idea whether both parties would be interested in a deal like the one suggested above. I’m not saying that I would necessarily make this move either.

But if the Seahawks are at a point where they think an extension with Clark is unlikely, they have to assess their options. This trade would free up cap room, fill out their draft board, present them with an opportunity to get one of the stud defensive linemen in this draft and solve part of the four-pronged 2020 contract problem.

Look at it this way:

— Seattle loses Frank Clark

— Seattle gains a top rookie D-liner (Ed Oliver?) and has the cap space to sign one or two free agent pass rushers (Anthony Barr?)

— Seattle goes from four picks to seven in the 2019 draft, with a prime opportunity to acquire more, and capitalise on a deep draft class

— Seattle eases the pressure on needing to sign four key free agents before the end of the 2019 season

Food for thought.

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Will Grier had the strongest arm at the combine

This is cool. Got QB ball speed numbers at the Combine. WV’s Will Grier had the strongest arm with a 59 score (tied w Boise's Brett Rypien). Other top QBs: MSU’s Nick Fitzgerald & NC State’s Ryan Finley at 57; BUF’s Tyree Jackson, Mizzou’s Drew Lock & Duke’s Daniel Jones at 54.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) March 8, 2019

This is interesting. Grier’s arm strength has been a point of contention during his college career. He has some mechanical flaws that impact his velocity. When he gets it right, however, he’s an extremely capable deep-ball thrower.

I still believe Grier could be a target for the Seahawks.

At the end of the 2018 season PFF published a piece called ‘best at everything’. It was a breakdown of every position or unit and named a player that succeeded in a certain aspect of play (eg best player to run a hitch route, best swim move, best box safety).

Grier was ranked #1 for throwing the go-route:

No college quarterback throws a better go route than Grier, a trend that has continued from a season ago. He leads the nation with 1,207 yards and 24 big-time throws on go routes, doing so without throwing a turnover-worthy pass. In total, he’s completed 35 of 68 go routes for 17 touchdowns, averaging a hefty 24.2 yards downfield per target, routinely leading his receivers so well that they’ve gained 32.8 percent of his passing yards after the catch.

He was also named the best quarterback at handling a defensive blitz:

Grier has read and diagnosed blitzes this year better than any other quarterback. When the defense sends extra rushers, he’s completed 85 of 124 passes for 1,303 yards and a remarkable 22 touchdowns against no interceptions. His 14 big-time throws against the blitz lead the country, as do his touchdowns — as he’s been able to find soft spots and holes in coverages despite extra blitzing defenders coming at him.

Those are two positives right off the bat.

In 2018 Grier ranked #1 among Senior Bowl quarterbacks for yards per completion (14.53 YPC). Kyler Murray was the top ranked quarterback overall (16.77 YPC). In comparison, Dwayne Haskins was only the 32nd ranked quarterback for YPC (12.95).

PFF also ranked him 13th among the 101 best players in college football last season, noting:

Grier was once again tremendous for the Mountaineers in 2018, finishing the year as the nation’s third-highest graded quarterback. He let it rip with the best of them, sprinkling in deep shots with great accuracy just as quick as he’d hit a crosser over the middle or perfectly lead his targets away from coverage with relative ease. In total, he averaged the fourth-highest yards per attempt at 9.7 while throwing more deep pass touchdowns than any other FBS QB with 20. He goes down as arguably the best deep-ball thrower over the past two seasons as he’s thrown for more yards (2,850), more touchdowns (36) and more big-time throws (54) on passes targeted at least 20 yards downfield than any other quarterback since 2017.

Here’s another article by PFF on Grier’s ‘deep passing prowess’.

Then there’s this — a study from FiveThirtyEight. They use something called ‘the quarterback prospect model’. It’s explained in detail in the article.

The test basically uses factors like completion percentage to project success probability at the next level. Russell Wilson topped the chart with a 99% success probability. The appearance of Johnny Manziel and Kellen Moore near the top challenges the usefulness of the chart. However, it’s interesting that Kyler Murray and Will Grier are ranked #1 and #2 as the quarterbacks in this draft class with the highest probability of success based on their formula.

The Seahawks have a big challenge ahead with Russell Wilson’s future. A contract saga is developing. Hopefully it comes to a conclusion where Seattle and Wilson agree terms on a long term deal. Here’s a reminder though on how tricky this situation is:

— Wilson can earn a fortune playing on multiple franchise tags like Kirk Cousins and direct a path to free agency in the future

— The Seahawks can realistically tag Wilson until 2021 but after that, the cost would be so high they’d either need a deal or they’d be forced to let Wilson become a free agent

— That means they have a two-year window to get a deal done and/or prepare for the worst case scenario of losing Wilson

Preparation has to start now one way or another. And they will prepare. That doesn’t mean you force the issue and draft any old quarterback. I keep presenting Grier as an option for all the reasons listed above. There are things about his game that the Seahawks will probably like. And while it’s far from a likelihood that they’ll draft him early — nobody should be surprised in April if it actually happens.

This wouldn’t be about replacing Wilson. It’s about insurance in your future. It’s an investment. Quarterbacks rarely lose value if they show even a modicum of talent. I don’t want to keep repeating this but the worst case scenario is you end up with a cheap backup for a few years (something they’ve needed). The best case scenario is you protect yourself against the nightmare of not being able to get an extension with Wilson. Sadly, that’s a possibility even if it’s a horrible thought.

Possible free agent targets

Twitter is awash with calls to pay Landon Collins what they wouldn’t pay Earl Thomas.

In reality the Seahawks are much more likely to have a modest free agency period with limited cap space ($33.3m) and an intense need to keep their own players (including Russell Wilson, Frank Clark, Bobby Wagner and Jarran Reed).

So here’s my best guess on who they might target and prioritise…

Priority #1 — J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker
Pete Carroll stated clearly at the combine that it was a priority to keep the offensive line together. He also confirmed several times during the season that he wanted to retain Sweezy and Fluker, even telling me in London they were part of the “new core”. This is a situation where it just seems likely to get done. The team want to make it happen, Sweezy and Fluker want to make it happen and their value is stronger to the Seahawks than it would be anywhere else.

Priority #2 — Mychal Kendricks
Kendricks has long been an underrated linebacker and his value showed in his handful of appearances for the Seahawks last season. Seattle’s willingness to pay and play him amid his legal trouble probably bought respect from the player. Assuming he avoids jail, an extension should be a formality. With K.J. Wright likely to get big money elsewhere, this would be a vital signing for the Seahawks.

Brandon Marshall
The Seahawks need a plan at linebacker. If they have to wait on Kendricks, they could sign a hedge. Marshall is well sized at 6-1 and 242lbs with 34 inch arms. He’d replace some of the size and length provided by Wright. He also ran a 4.09 short shuttle at his combine and the Seahawks appear to value that test at the linebacker position. After a down year in Denver, Marshall could be had at a value price.

Jermaine Kearse
The Seahawks only have 47 contracted players in 2019 (the third lowest number in the league). They need to add competition at certain positions and pad things out. Bringing Kearse back enables you to hedge against the receiver position in the draft. He also has familiarity with the quarterback and could compete with several others to make the roster.

Anthony Barr
I just have a feeling that if there’s one player they might be willing to pay a bit of money for it could be Barr. He’s at a good age (26) and is the kind of athlete they really like. He ran well in the three cone (6.82) and short shuttle (4.12) at his combine. He ran a 1.56 10-yard split at his pro-day. If he gets offers in the +$15m range this isn’t going to happen. In the $10-12m range, maybe there’s a chance. It depends on his market. He played linebacker at Minnesota but teams might take a shot on him as a pass rusher. Seattle could look at him both ways. Barr feels like the kind of player they’d see value in it just depends on the money.

Stephone Anthony
He’s had a disappointing pro-career after a great rookie season. Anthony was traded by the Saints and struggled to have an impact in Miami. However, the Seahawks like to collect former first round picks with untapped potential. Anthony ran a 4.56 forty and a 4.03 short shuttle at his combine. Those are good numbers at 6-3 and 243lbs. He’s unlikely to be expensive given his stalled career. The Seahawks might see his addition as a chance to add potential and depth at linebacker.

Matt Bryant
A year ago the Seahawks added 40-year-old Sebastian Janikowski to compete with Jason Myers at kicker. This year will they add 43-year-old Matt Bryant to compete with Sam Ficken?

No secondary suggestions?
The Seahawks have done their best work in the draft when it comes to defensive backs, with the exception of Bradley McDougald. Considering the way the safety’s ran at the combine, they should be able to find an option. They could replace Justin Coleman with a dynamic 4.4 runner at safety/nickel. There’s also a long list of tall, long cornerbacks available. This feels like an area to be addressed in April.

The Bills want Frank Clark?

According to Jay Glazer they have some interest…

Well, Dan Morgan worked in Seattle and is close to John Schneider. There’s interest around Frank Clark from them and others RT @swailes_robert: @JayGlazer Now there are three guys I'd be happy for the Bills to go after.

— Jay Glazer (@JayGlazer) March 8, 2019

Pete Carroll has said numerous times that ‘Frankie isn’t going anywhere’. This is still almost certain to be true. He’s a key player for Seattle and even if they got Buffalo’s #9 pick in the draft — they’d probably have to spend the pick to replace Clark.

Yes the money would be beneficial against the cap — but you’d be trading a proven quality player at a great age for cap space and potential. For that reason, any kind of deal seems unlikely unless it’s for an absolute kings ransom.

The one team I thought might be interested in Clark is Oakland. Jon Gruden reportedly singled out Clark as the key player for Seattle in London. The Raiders need a pass rusher in the worst way. And with numerous picks, they might be a more tempting trade partner.

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Seahawks showing interest in Drew Lewis?

According to Tony Pauline they were one of three teams spending time with Lewis at the Colorado pro-day. It’s not a big surprise. They have a massive need at linebacker and also a ‘type’ at the position. Lewis fits the bill with a 4.49 forty, 34 inch vertical, 10-9 broad and a 7.02 three cone. Reportedly he can also squat 515lbs.

Interestingly his father is a former Seahawks cornerback and actually spent 12 years in Seattle’s front office. His cousin is ESPN analyst Louis Riddick. Drew Lewis is a player to watch over the coming weeks.

Add another running back to the watch-list

Nebraska’s Devine Ozigbo measured at 5-11 and 222lbs at his pro-day. He ran a 4.54 forty, jumped a 37 inch vertical and a 10-4 broad. That’s the kind of size and explosive power Seattle looks for in a running back.

Meanwhile offensive lineman Tanner Farmer, a former four-star recruit and 96.84 SPARQ tester in High School, had a 32.5 inch vertical, a 9-10 broad jump and put up 39 reps on the bench press. Those marks warrant an outstanding 3.80 in TEF.

Post-combine mock draft

A few quick thoughts before getting into this…

1. Don’t assume D.K. Metcalf is suddenly a top-10 pick

Running a 4.33 at 228lbs is impressive. Some teams might be wowed by Metcalf’s potential and clear athleticism. However, here’s the reality of his combine performance. We learnt, unsurprisingly, he can run fast in a straight line. We already knew that. We’ve all seen the first snap of the Ole Miss vs Alabama game from 2018. He’s a superb downfield runner at his size. Yet his 4.50 short shuttle is the kind of time you’d expect from a decent defensive tackle. Trysten Hill, who we featured yesterday, ran a 4.38 short shuttle at 308lbs. Metcalf also ran a 7.38 three cone.

Teams were supposedly concerned about his size going into the combine. Surely those fears were confirmed here? Those times suggest a level of stiffness and an inability to change direction quickly. Then you add in the neck injury which for a time was considered career-threatening plus the all-too-frequent concentration drops. Could he be a top-15 pick after running a 4.33? Sure. Is it just as likely he lasts because of the concerns noted here? Yes, definitely.

2. Why is Jonah Williams frequently mocked in the top-10?

It’s been that way for a full draft season. Even Mike Solari seemed enamoured with him, calling on Williams to show the rest of the O-liners at the combine how to do the on-field drills. Yet his testing numbers show a player who lacks explosive traits (28 inch vertical, 8-4 broad jump) and didn’t test well in terms of agility (8.01 three cone, 4.79 short shuttle). He’s 6-4 and 302lbs.

Bob McGinn posted an article this week citing scouting sources on Williams. The positives included consistency and good hand placement. One scout called him a “good not great” player. Another said, “You’re watching him play left tackle, which he’s not. The more you watch him, the more you kind of sober up and ignore the chatter. You start thinking about him as a right tackle or a guard. You’re kind of reaching if you think that guy will be a top-10 left tackle.” A final scout added, “He’s a catcher. As a run blocker, he has absolutely no strength. Stalemates are his best.”

3. I’m torn on how to react to the combine

Montez Sweat’s excellent forty yard dash flashed elite-level speed and that could be enough to promote him into top-10 contention. He also had a strange exit from Michigan State and didn’t look comfortable in space during drills. Still — there aren’t many 260lbs players running a 4.41 with 36 inch arms so I’m putting him at #7.

Brian Burns on the other hand I’m only moving into the late first. He too had a great combine and answered some questions by weighing 249lbs. However, teams will likely look into the legitimacy of that weight. Did he drink a lot of water before being weighed? Because there’s no way he put on 20lbs of muscle since the end of the college season having reportedly played in the 220’s. He’s a talented player and a great speed rusher. But that doesn’t automatically mean teams will draft an undersized EDGE in the top-20. Doubts about his playing size and ability to defend the run will remain.

The mock in full

#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 San Francisco — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#3 New York Jets — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#4 Oakland — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#5 Denver (via TB) – Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#6 New York Giants — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#7 Jacksonville — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#8 Detroit — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#9 Buffalo — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#10 Tampa Bay (via DEN) – Devin White (LB, LSU)
#11 Cincinnati – Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#12 Green Bay — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#14 Atlanta — Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#15 Washington — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#16 Carolina — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#17 Cleveland — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#18 Minnesota — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#19 Tennessee — Noah Fant (TE, Iowa)
#20 Pittsburgh — Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#21 Buffalo – (via SEA) – Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#22 Baltimore — Jonah Williams (C/G, Alabama)
#23 Houston — Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#24 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#25 Philadelphia — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#26 Indianapolis — D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#27 Pittsburgh (via OAK) — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#28 LA Chargers — Kaleb McGary (T, Washington)
#29 Kansas City — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
#30 Green Bay – Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
#31 LA Rams — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
#32 New York Giants (via NE) — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)

The trades explained

Denver (#10) trades with Tampa Bay (#5) to select Drew Lock
I suspect some teams will grade Drew Lock as the #1 or #2 quarterback in this draft. Several reports have suggested John Elway is enamoured with Lock. The trade for Joe Flacco could be an attempt to recreate Kansas City’s plan (veteran — Alex Smith, rookie — Patrick Mahomes). If so, are they going to risk the Giants taking their guy at #6? They give the Buccs their 2020 first rounder.

Buffalo (#40) trades with Seattle (#21) to select Parris Campbell
The Bills need to surround Josh Allen with weapons. I have them taking Jawaan Taylor with their first pick. Will they move up to secure some genuine downfield speed? They could target Marquise Brown or Parris Campbell (who ran a 4.31 at the combine). The Bills have an extra fourth and fifth round pick so they have something to spend to move up. They give Seattle a third, fourth and fifth to trade up 19 spots.

Oakland (#27) trades with Pittsburgh for Antonio Brown
This one increasingly seems inevitable. It’s simply a case of whether the Raiders need to give up one of their first rounders. Can they get the Steelers to accept a second round pick? Brown to the Raiders could be completed before the end of the week.

The New York Giants (#37) trade with New England (#32) to select Daniel Jones
I can see a scenario where the Giants don’t take a quarterback with their first pick but trade back into the late first to select one. That could be Daniel Jones. There’s a connection between the Manning’s and Jones through Duke coach David Cutcliffe. This could be a plausible way to make a seamless transition from the older quarterback to a younger player. The Pats take a fourth rounder to move down five spots.

Second round

#33 Arizona — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
#34 Indianapolis — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
#35 Oakland — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
#36 San Francisco — Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
#37 New England (via NYG) — Josh Oliver (TE, San Jose State)
#38 Jacksonville — Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)
#39 Tampa Bay — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
#40 Seattle (via Buf) — Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
#41 Denver — Dawson Knox (TE, Ole Miss)
#42 Cincinnati — Mack Wilson (LB, Alabama)
#43 Detroit — Justin Layne (CB, Michigan State)
#44 Green Bay — Deebo Samuel (WR, Green Bay)
#45 Atlanta — Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College)
#46 Washington — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
#47 Carolina — Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
#48 Miami — Dalton Risner (T, Kansas State)
#49 Cleveland — Hakeem Butler (WR, Iowa State)
#50 Minnesota — Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M)
#51 Tennessee — Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
#52 Pittsburgh — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
#53 Philadelphia — A.J. Brown (WR, Ole Miss)
#54 Houston — Deandre Baker (CB, Georgia)
#55 Houston — Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida)
#56 New England — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
#57 Philadelphia — Trayvon Mullen (CB, Clemson)
#58 Dallas — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#59 Indianapolis — Isaiah Johnson (CB, Houston)
#60 LA Chargers — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
#61 Kansas City — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
#62 New Orleans — Miles Boykin (WR, Notre Dame)
#63 Kansas City — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#64 New England — Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)

Seahawks seven-rounder

This includes the trade with Buffalo presented in the mock above.

#40 (R2) — Christian Miller (LB, Alabama)
#74 (R3) — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#84 (R3) — Marvell Tell (S, USC)
#124 (R4) — Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma)
#131 (R4) — Gary Jennings (WR, West Virginia)
#158 (R5) — Trevon Wesco (TE, West Virginia)
#159 (R5) — Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)

Thoughts on each pick

#40 Christian Miller (LB, Alabama)
This could go one of two ways. Either he plays EDGE and acts as a pass rusher. Or how about this. Miller is 6-3, 247lbs and has 35 1/8 inch arms. K.J. Wright at his combine was 6-3, 246lbs with 34 7/8 inch arms. Now — they are different players. But body wise they are similar. We know the Seahawks are willing to try and coach an EDGE to become a linebacker (see: Bruce Irvin). So this could be an option. The Seahawks also seemingly pay attention to the short shuttle at linebacker. Miller didn’t run a short shuttle at the combine but at SPARQ he was timed at 4.18. In comparison, Devin White ran a 4.17.

#74 Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
I wrote about Hill’s tape yesterday but here’s why I think he might fit for the Seahawks. They’ve consistently drafted defensive linemen who test well in the short shuttle. Hill ran an excellent 4.38. Pete Carroll hasn’t drafted a defensive linemen with sub-33 inch arms. Hill has 33.5 inch arms. He’s also extremely explosive (35 inch vertical) and quick (third fastest 10-yard split among DT’s). In terms of testing, he’s as explosive as Ed Oliver. This would be an opportunity to get one of the best defensive tackles in a deep class. He’ll only last this long due to questions about his final year at UCF, where he seemingly didn’t see eye-to-eye with the new coaches upon Scott Frosts departure. The Seahawks love an opportunity like this.

#84 Marvell Tell (S, USC)
Seattle’s defense utilised three safety’s at times in 2018. Will they take it a step further this year? Justin Coleman is a free agent. With so many of the safety’s running 4.4 or above at the combine — their next nickel could be a safety. Marvell Tell has the quickness and agility to potentially switch to corner. He ran an incredible 6.63 three cone and a 4.01 short shuttle. It also helps that he’s 6-2 and has 33 1/8 inch arms — so they might even try him outside. He also jumped a 42 inch vertical and was a captain at USC. He’s a terrific talent who could be tried at multiple positions.

#124 Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma)
Why Samia? Simple. He’s a BAMF who excels in the running game. He’s the most aggressive, nasty offensive linemen in the draft. He wants to fight everyone and get after you. The Seahawks regained their identity in 2018 and Samia fits into that. He’s not going to excel in pass-pro. He’s a pure run blocker. That’s what the Seahawks seem to go for.

#131 Gary Jennings (WR, West Virginia)
All but two of Seattle’s 2010-18 draft picks at receiver have run in the 4.4’s. The two that didn’t were seventh round flier Kenny Lawler and Chris Harper (who ran a 4.50). So the chances are any wide out they draft will run in the 4.4’s. I picked Jennings because he ran a 4.42, excels at making chunk plays, competes for the ball, finishes runs, is clever to shield defenders and gain position and he’s effective working inside or out. He’d be a nice compliment to what they already have.

#158 Trevon Wesco (TE, West Virginia)
Wesco is 6-3, 267lbs and has nearly 35 inch arms. He’s basically another offensive linemen — which as we’ve come to learn over the last 12 months, is the type they’re going for. He also has good special teams value, plays with an aggressive attitude, appears to enjoy blocking in the running game and is basically right out of the Will Dissly book of tight ends. He’s no slouch — he ran a 4.38 short shuttle which was faster than Josh Oliver (4.47) and not far behind Irv Smith Jr (4.33). Wesco could also be used as a full back. Seattle has regularly targeted tight ends with a sub-7.10 three cone but only three players managed that at the combine (Noah Fant, T.J. Hockenson, Kaden Smith).

#159 Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)
When he ran the forty at the combine he looked like a Seahawks cornerback. Long and lean. He’s 6-3, 189lbs and has 34 inch arms. Sound familiar? Tre Flowers is 6-3, 202lbs and has 34 inch arms. There are more rounded cornerbacks Seattle could target such as Jamal Peters or Lonnie Johnson. However, it’s possible both players will be gone by this point — leaving Seattle to take a profile fit.

Other players I seriously considered for this mock:

Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
The best deep-ball thrower in college football for two years and possibly the best option if Seattle wants to insure against a Russell Wilson-contract saga.

Alec Ingold (FB, Wisconsin)
A tenacious full back — something Seattle’s offense has been lacking for a while. He’ll also contribute on special teams.

Several tight ends, including Drew Sample (TE, Washington)
We could see a long list of tight ends drafted in the first three rounds. The Seahawks could easily go in that direction early.

Several of the 4.4 runners at receivers
They could take a receiver at any point in this draft, including with their first pick. There aren’t any clear top-10 wide outs but there’s plenty of depth.

Bobby Evans (T, Oklahoma)
He’s physical, tough and enjoys the run game. He’s versatile enough to play guard or tackle and they might need some insurance for the long term.

Isaiah Prince (T, Ohio State)
He stood out at the combine as the most athletic and impressive looking offensive tackle. He’s 6-6, 305lbs and has +35 inch arms.

Michael Jordan (G/C, Ohio State)
He has major potential and looked the part at the combine. He could be developed to play any position at the next level.

Justin Hollins (EDGE, Oregon)
A highly athletic EDGE with the kind of quickness, speed and length they’ve looked for at the position.

Daniel Wise (DT, Kansas)
A possible specialist interior rusher with the production, length (33 inch arms) and quickness (4.37 short shuttle) they like.

Drew Lewis (LB, Colorado)
Explosive (10-9 broad, 32.5 inch vertical) and quick (4.49) — the type they’ve drafted in the past at linebacker.

Khalil Hodge (LB, Buffalo)
A tackling machine and somebody Tony Pauline reported Seattle has interest in. Gritty player with a backstory.

Lonnie Johnson (CB, Kentucky)
The latest recipient of a stare-out challenge at the combine. Johnson has everything they like — length, speed and toughness.

Jamal Peters (CB, Mississippi State)
A converted safety who lacks speed (4.64) but has a bit of Brandon Browner to his size and tackling.

Marquise Blair (S, Utah)
A heat-seeking missile as a tackler who actually ran better than expected at the combine (4.48).

Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
If they’re looking for playmaking in the secondary, Thornhill had six interceptions last season. He also ran a 4.42 forty and jumped a 44 inch vertical and an 11-9 broad. A special athlete.

There are many others I could’ve included, these were just some under consideration in this particular pre-free agency projection.

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With the combine in the books and free agency less than a week away, what are the Seahawks going to do?

No, they’re not signing that big name

There’s been a fair bit of talk about making a ‘splash’. Recently fans and media have been discussing the possibility of adding Landon Collins.

I’m afraid it’s highly unlikely.

With Frank Clark receiving a $17m franchise tag, Seattle’s available cap space is down to $33m in 2019.

Fourteen teams, including the Rams, have more cap space than the Seahawks.

The Seahawks only have only 47 players contracted for 2019. Only two teams in the entire league have fewer contracted players for next season — the Rams and the Jets. New York has $99m in cap space to rectify that issue. Seattle has $33m.

They need to fill out their roster. This means re-signing their reasonably long list of free agents or replacing them. Any available cap space will evaporate quickly.

In comparison, the Dallas Cowboys have $28m in free cap space ($5m less than the Seahawks). However, they have 59 contracted players for 2019. That’s 12 more than the Seahawks. So they have less work to do to fill out their roster with a similar amount of money to spend.

If the Seahawks were to sign Landon Collins at about $10-12m a year, they’d be left with between $16-22m in cap space to fill out the bulk of their roster. That’s simply not realistic — especially when you factor in the several million that needs to be saved for injured reserve and the practise squad.

But this is unacceptable! They’re supposed to be contending this year!

Championships are rarely won and lost in free agency. When they are won, it’s often because teams found value. The 2013 season is a great example. Signing Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril to bargain contracts was a masterstroke. Six years on it’s still fairly unbelievable how they managed to pull it off.

When you run through the list of top free agents in 2018 according to NFL.com, many of the big names failed to deliver. Kirk Cousins was ranked at #1 but the Vikings failed to make the playoffs after spending big on the QB. Did the Chiefs get any value for their big splurge on Sammy Watkins? What about the Jaguars and Andrew Norwell, the Broncos and Case Keenum, the Jets and Trumaine Johnson, the Titans and Malcolm Butler, the Cardinals and Sam Bradford or the Giants and Nate Solder?

Did any of these moves push anyone over the top? Despite the major investment?

Seattle’s best veteran additions in the Pete Carroll era have been the understated or ‘value’ moves. Acquiring Marshawn Lynch for practically nothing. Signing Bennett and Avril to prove it deals. Plucking Bradley McDougald from the Buccaneers. Trading for Chris Clemons. Finding Brandon Browner from the CFL. Adding Tony McDaniel. Seeing an opportunity when Zach Miller lingered on the market a little too long.

Their worst moves have been bold, expensive additions like Percy Harvin and Jimmy Graham. Seattle gained plaudits and hype for those two trades. Neither panned out.

So what’s going to happen then?

They’ll probably be calculated and look for value. Fill some holes so that you can complete the roster in the draft. Continue to build.

If there’s an opportunity to repeat the Bennett and Avril heist of 2013 they’ll no doubt take it. We’ll find out next week how the market shapes up.

What are the priorities?

The combine revealed this is not a deep class at linebacker. With Devin White and Devin Bush likely to leave the board early in round one, the options are severely limited. There are players you might be willing to add later on, such as West Virginia’s David Long. Tony Pauline reported at the Shrine Game that they have interest in Buffalo’s Khalil Hodge. But there wasn’t an obvious rookie starter at the combine short of White and Bush.

They have to address this position one way or another in free agency. They might feel a bit more pressure to re-sign K.J. Wright. Whether he stays in Seattle or not is down to how much he’s offered elsewhere. It’s a shame Mychal Kendricks’ legal situation is yet to be resolved. If he was free to continue his career, they could solve this problem quite quickly. If neither player is an option they might have to look at other veterans. This is a key off-season problem that needs to be solved before the draft.

Try and find an EDGE in free agency

I say ‘try’ because this could be a fruitless exercise. Pass rushers get paid. Frank Clark will earn $17m for 2019 alone. A few years ago we all shuddered at the Giants paying Olivier Vernon $17m a year. Now it’s the norm.

Despite this being a much vaunted defensive line draft, it’s also quite top-heavy at EDGE. Nick Bosa, Josh Allen, Rashan Gary and Clelin Ferrell aren’t going to be in range for the Seahawks. The combine made it far less likely that Montez Sweat and Brian Burns will be there. After that, you’re looking at players like Christian Miller and D’Andre Walker and it’s difficult to project their draft range.

The Seahawks could do with a partner for Frank Clark. In the past they were able to rotate Bennett, Avril and Clark. Before that it was Bennett, Avril and Clemons. Hopefully Rasheem Green can take a step forward and develop into a productive inside/out rusher. Jacob Martin also provides an option. They still need more. Upgrading Dion Jordan seems necessary. That project hasn’t delivered so far.

Is there a pass rusher out there they can get on a reasonable, prove-it year deal? I was hoping Anthony Barr might be that man but everything points to him getting a significant offer.

What is the kicker market like?

There was the Blair Walsh project. Then there was Sebastian Janikowski. For a team so determined to play games tight, a good kicker is extremely important.

In fairness to the Seahawks, there haven’t been lots of kickers reaching the market. They more or less played the hand they were dealt. Steven Hauschka picked a bad year in 2016 to miss a ton of extra points, a crucial field goal in Arizona and turn the Seahawks off giving him a pricey long extension.

This year, Stephen Gostkowski will reach the open market. It seems likely he’ll re-sign in New England, just for less than the near $5m he would’ve received on the franchise tag. He can talk to other teams though. Matt Bryant was recently released by the Falcons and intends to continue playing. Cody Parkey was cut by the Bears. Jason Myers, who was with the Seahawks in training camp last year, is also a free agent.

Will they spend a bit of money to try and find a solution for a few years? Or will they continue their recent approach and give Sam Ficken a chance to win the job against some yet unknown competition (possibly a rookie or veteran).

Keep the band together

We’ve started talking about additions but the clear #1 priority is to try and retain several important free agents. Wright or Kendricks fall into that category. Pete Carroll has talked up the importance of keeping J.R. Sweezy and D.J. Fluker. Justin Coleman has had two solid years in Seattle. They’d probably like to find agreements with restricted free agents George Fant, Quinton Jefferson, Joey Hunt and J.D. McKissic. Jordan Simmons, Shalom Luani, Akeem King, David Moore and Austin Calitro are among their exclusive rights free agents. Ideally Mike Davis returns as RB3.

The two guards are likely key. For once the O-line was settled in 2018 and helped create the personality of the team. Finding a solution at linebacker is also important. If they address both of these situations — and potentially add an EDGE — they won’t have too many holes going into the draft.

That will enable them to turn to the other big dilemma this off-season — dealing with the big four. Russell Wilson, Bobby Wagner, Frank Clark and Jarran Reed are all core players. They’re all free agents after the 2019 season. Extensions are needed.

How exactly would this set up the draft?

Assuming they trade down and end up with 7-8 picks instead of four, they can tap into the depth of this class. With 18 receivers running a 4.4 or faster at the combine, they’ll be able to identify a wide out at some point (whether that’s a bigger target or another sudden, smaller receiver). It’s a good looking tight end class from the second round onwards so there’s a good chance they’ll add one.

They can bring in a defensive tackle or another inside/out type. There are athletic offensive linemen who will be available later on to add some depth/competition. With so many long/tall cornerbacks, they’ll certainly be able to draft at least one. It also feels likely after Monday’s outstanding workout that they’ll tap into the safety class. I think they might select a safety to replace Justin Coleman — especially given so many of them ran well in the forty. Could USC’s Marvell Tell be added as a possible corner convert or a nickel given his fantastic length (+33 inch arms) and incredible agility (4.01 short shuttle, 6.63 three cone)?

Of course there’s also the quarterback position, depending on the state of talks with Russell Wilson.

For more on possible targets from the combine, read our review article from Monday.

And finally some thoughts on Trysten Hill

Time to start looking at some of the players who impressed at the combine, starting with the UCF defensive tackle. After watching a superb session of drills (plus exceptional testing in the broad, vertical and short shuttle) — he was the first player I wanted to have a proper look at.

His tape didn’t disappoint.

Hill is consistently the first to react off the snap. He has a small tendency to lean into offensive lineman and can probably clean up his technique at times. It’s still effective though. He gets low, uses his arms well and frequently drives his blocker backwards. He’s adept at keeping clean and often retains a free arm to make a play at the ball carrier.

On one snap in a dominating performance against Memphis he delivered a violent one-handed left jab to a lineman’s chest and drove him three yards into the backfield. He extended his arm sufficiently to stay clean and then disengaged to the ball-carrier.

On another play against Memphis he moved across the line sensing a run to the left. He kept his eyes downfield and read the play and found a lane inside. A pulling tight end tried to come across and seal off his path to the RB. He just threw him off and dropped the running back for a five-yard loss.

The motor never stops. He works and works to the whistle in a way I haven’t seen from another defensive tackle in this class. If it’s an inside run, he’s busting a gut to get to the ball carrier. On one play stretched to the outside he sprinted from one side of the field to the other to make a play on the ball carrier. He never sits on a block to rest or take a snap off. He’s always working, always hustling.

There’s evidence of a spin move, bull rush, quickness off the snap and burst. He extends his arms on contact and drives linemen backwards. He doesn’t just stay connected and win with power. He’s slippery — so when he wins with the initial move you see him time and time again disengage and break to the ball. A lot of defensive tackles can win with power/leverage early in the snap and drive a blocker backwards. The best can convert power to speed, get off the block and make a TFL. That’s testament to his athleticism and his hand placement that he manages it.

Hill ran the third quickest 10-yard split by a defensive tackle at the combine (1.74) and this shows up. Florida Atlantic — who started the game double teaming him — blew a protection and had three guys blocking his defensive tackle partner, allowing Hill a free run to the backfield. He covers ground so quickly. In that Florida Atlantic game he had a couple of missed opportunities, highlighting one area where he can improve. When he got into the backfield he was at 100mph and ended up missing the tackle. A little bit more control and patience in that situation could’ve led to a TFL.

It’d be fair to question whether his playing style (which is all-out attack) will lend itself to consistent gap-discipline. He’s an attack-dog. For that reason, he might be best served acting as part of a decent rotation. His approach is so aggressive and all-action, I’m not sure he’ll be content managing a gap to get to second and long.

There are some supposed character concerns. When Scott Frost departed for Nebraska, Hill’s role was massively reduced. He only started once in 2018 and when watching three UCF games it was incredible how little he played. He didn’t really get on the field against Memphis — the conference Championship game — until UCF had conceded 21 points. He then proceeded to be the best player on the defense for the rest of the game.

Lance Zierlein’s report contains the following quote from a NFC area scout:

“One thing that pops up is that he’s really opinionated about a lot of things. Big talker. He wasn’t always fun to coach so you have to keep that in mind if you bring him into your room.”

Clearly there was a disconnect between the new regime and Hill in 2018. So is it just a clash? A bad fit? With the right coaches, can he start and excel? While the Seahawks always love a challenge — 2018 was also an opportunity to re-establish a team first mentality.

Watching his interviews, there’s nothing obviously concerning. He speaks well:

#NFLCombine: Great time talking shop with @UCF_Football DT Trysten Tate pic.twitter.com/AGyWYNo2S1

— Emory Hunt (@FBallGameplan) March 2, 2019

Jim Nagy posted this tweet during the combine:

Three years ago, coaches on Scott Frost’s UCF staff told me @trystenhill9 was the best player on the team…AS A TRUE FRESHMAN! That team also had Shaquill and Shaquem, Tre’Quan Smith, and Jordan Akins. How did this kid not start for UCF this year?! Looks great at the Combine. pic.twitter.com/pmXNIi43iu

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) March 3, 2019

Hill put on a fantastic show during drills. His movement, agility and change of direction was highly impressive:

Trysten Hill taking off! #UCFast #BuiltByUCF pic.twitter.com/3jbCpE9Q1Y

— #25 Barstool UCF (@UCFStool) March 3, 2019

UCF's Trysten Hill moves so well cc @_John_Shipley pic.twitter.com/iHgINeHa2W

— Billy Marshall (@BillyM_91) March 3, 2019

More Trysten Hill pic.twitter.com/C2TVkIJrJ5

— Billy Marshall (@BillyM_91) March 3, 2019

Not shown in those three videos is a drill that emphasises change of direction, a drop and then a sprint round a cone. He was effortless in his movement and then pulled off a handbrake turn to manoeuvre the cone. I’m not sure anyone boosted their stock as much as Hill during the on-field drills in Indianapolis.

He ticks a lot of boxes for the Seahawks. They’ve never drafted a defensive lineman with sub-33 inch arms. He has 33 3/8 inch arms. They’ve consistency drafted defensive linemen with excellent short shuttle times. He ran a 4.38. Rasheem Green ran a 4.39 last year at 275lbs. Hill beat that time at 308lbs.

He’s also highly explosive and jumped a 9-7 broad. Nick Bosa managed a 9-8 broad and Ed Oliver (10-0) and Renell Wren (9-10) were the only defensive tackles who beat him. His vertical jump — 35 inches — was only an inch away from Oliver’s attempt (36 inches).

Essentially he’s a comparable athlete in terms of explosive traits to Ed Oliver, despite weighing a good 20-30lbs more. He’s considerably more agile in terms of the short shuttle than several wide receivers including Riley Ridley (4.58), N’Keal Harry (4.53), Hakeem Butler (4.48), Deebo Samuel (4.48) and D.K. Metcalf (4.50).

In a loaded defensive line draft, Trysten Hill is clearly one of the best available. I’m not sure how concerned teams are with the character. If he’s there in round three, I’d seriously consider drafting him.

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