Some thoughts before we get into it…
When does the run on receivers start?
It’s not a great year for legit first round receivers but there’s depth in the middle rounds. If you believe you can get a quality wide out in rounds 2-4 (and acknowledge the value in round one isn’t great) — you’re going to wait. So when does the run start? Is it the early 20’s when Baltimore are on the clock? Will someone jump the line and take one even earlier? Or does it start in the late 20’s (just like the run on running backs a year ago)?
It’s difficult to project picks 20-30
For me there are 11-18 legit first round prospects in this class. I think there’s between 25-35 legit second rounders and possibly as many as 40-50 third rounders. What does this mean? When you get to picks 20-30, you’re probably going to select a player with a similar grade to the guy taken at #50. Anything could happen in the late first. It’s going to be unpredictable. And the teams picking in that range will be absolutely desperate to move down.
Seattle’s pick could still have some value
Why? The Ravens have a big need at receiver. It will help the Seahawks significantly if all of the receivers are still on the board by #21. Teams like Indianapolis, Green Bay and possibly the Chiefs (depending on what happens with Tyreek Hill) might want to get ahead of the Ravens.
The Giants won’t target a quarterback
That’s my prediction. I think in the next 12 months they will try to add a veteran quarterback. It could be Derek Carr. It could be Russell Wilson. It could be someone totally different. But I’m not sold on them spending a high pick on Dwayne Haskins to be the long term answer. Dave Gettleman usually sticks to upgrading the lines and this is a strong D-line class. Don’t be shocked if they avoid the QB’s and wait this out.
The mock in full
#1 Arizona — Kyler Murray (QB, Oklahoma)
#2 San Francisco — Nick Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#3 New York Jets — Quinnen Williams (DT, Alabama)
#4 Oakland — Josh Allen (EDGE, Kentucky)
#5 Denver (via TB) – Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
#6 New York Giants — Rashan Gary (DE, Michigan)
#7 Jacksonville — Montez Sweat (EDGE, Mississippi State)
#8 Detroit — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
#9 Buffalo — Jawaan Taylor (T, Florida)
#10 Tampa Bay (via DEN) – Devin White (LB, LSU)
#11 Cincinnati – Devin Bush (LB, Michigan)
#12 Green Bay — T.J. Hockenson (TE, Iowa)
#13 Miami — Dexter Lawrence (DT, Clemson)
#14 Atlanta — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
#15 Washington — Dwayne Haskins (QB, Ohio State)
#16 Carolina — Andre Dillard (T, Washington State)
#17 New York Giants (via CLE) — Ed Oliver (DT, Houston)
#18 Minnesota — Jonah Williams (C/G, Alabama)
#19 Tennessee — Brian Burns (EDGE, Florida State)
#20 Pittsburgh — Greedy Williams (CB, LSU)
#21 Kansas City (via SEA) – Marquise Brown (WR, Oklahoma)
#22 Baltimore — Parris Campbell (WR, Ohio State)
#23 Houston — Noah Fant (TE, Iowa)
#24 Oakland — Irv Smith Jr (TE, Alabama)
#25 Philadelphia — Josh Jacobs (RB, Alabama)
#26 Indianapolis — Justin Layne (CB, Michigan State)
#27 Oakland – Cody Ford (T, Oklahoma)
#28 LA Chargers — Josh Oliver (TE, San Jose State)
#29 Seattle (via KC) — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#30 Green Bay – Deebo Samuel (WR, South Carolina)
#31 LA Rams — Garrett Bradbury (C, NC State)
#32 New England — Daniel Jones (QB, Duke)
Round two
#33 Arizona — Kaleb McGary (T, Washington)
#34 Indianapolis — Jeffery Simmons (DT, Mississippi State)
#35 Oakland — Byron Murphy (CB, Washington)
#36 San Francisco — Taylor Rapp (S, Washington)
#37 New York Giants — N’Keal Harry (WR, Arizona State)
#38 Jacksonville — Johnathan Abram (S, Mississippi State)
#39 Tampa Bay — Will Grier (QB, West Virginia)
#40 Buffalo – D.K. Metcalf (WR, Ole Miss)
#41 Denver — Dawson Knox (TE, Ole Miss)
#42 Cincinnati — Jachai Polite (EDGE, Florida)
#43 Detroit — Trayvon Mullen (CB, Clemson)
#44 Green Bay — Dru Samia (G, Oklahoma)
#45 Atlanta — Chris Lindstrom (G, Boston College)
#46 Washington — Mack Wilson (LB, Alabama)
#47 Carolina — Darnell Savage (S, Maryland)
#48 Miami — Dalton Risner (T, Kansas State)
#49 Cleveland — Greg Little (T, Ole Miss)
#50 Minnesota — Erik McCoy (C, Texas A&M)
#51 Tennessee — Deandre Baker (CB, Georgia)
#52 Pittsburgh — Zach Allen (DE, Boston College)
#53 Philadelphia — L.J. Collier (DE, TCU)
#54 Houston — Isaiah Johnson (CB, Houston)
#55 Houston — Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (S, Florida)
#56 New England — Chase Winovich (EDGE, Michigan)
#57 Philadelphia — Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Ohio State)
#58 Dallas — Juan Thornhill (S, Virginia)
#59 Indianapolis — Terry McLaurin (WR, Ohio State)
#60 LA Chargers — Miles Boykin (WR, Notre Dame)
#61 Kansas City — Jerry Tillery (DT, Notre Dame)
#62 New Orleans — Elgton Jenkins (C, Mississippi State)
#63 Kansas City — Jaylon Ferguson (EDGE, Louisiana Tech)
#64 New England — Christian Miller (EDGE, Alabama)
The trades explained
Denver (#10) trades with Tampa Bay (#5) to select Drew Lock
I suspect some teams will grade Drew Lock as the #1 or #2 quarterback in this draft. Several reports have suggested John Elway is enamoured with Lock. The trade for Joe Flacco could be an attempt to recreate Kansas City’s plan (veteran — Alex Smith, rookie — Patrick Mahomes). If so, are they going to risk the Giants taking their guy at #6? They give the Buccs their 2020 first rounder.
Kansas City (#29) trades with Seattle (#21) to select Marquise Brown
The Chiefs have big needs on defense but they do own two second round picks and a third round pick. So they have the stock to address multiple needs. Tyreek Hill might be on the verge of destroying his career. The Chiefs can’t afford for Patrick Mahomes to lose a dynamic playmaker at receiver. The best case scenario might be to address this in the draft and use your two second round picks to go defense. The Seahawks get a third and a fifth round pick in return.
Thoughts on Seattle’s pick
The Seahawks have consistently done two things under Pete Carroll and John Schneider:
1. Go for high upside with their first pick, targeting exceptional traits
2. Identify the positional strength of a draft class and exploit it
They’re never ‘settling’ on average or even slightly above average athletes with their first pick. Size, speed, length, power, explosive qualities. You don’t need me to list the names. They take guys with massive potential so they can develop that talent and try to create greatness.
Last year was the ‘year of the running back’. Seattle traded into a range to get the one they wanted with their first pick. They did the same in 2014 (the year of the wide receiver) and spent their highest ever pick on a cornerback in 2017 (the year of the corner). 2016 was a strong year for first round offensive linemen (seven in round one). They spent their first pick on a right tackle.
If there’s a clear positional strength in a draft, the Seahawks usually tap into it.
The strength of the 2019 draft is the defensive line. I suspect the Seahawks will want to try and find a defensive lineman with the potential to be ‘great’ from this class. Someone with all the traits, the massive upside, the incredible athleticism.
That’s why I paired them with Trysten Hill. You might argue it’s too early and that nobody else is projecting this. Not many people projected Rashaad Penny in round one either. Or Bruce Irvin. Or any of the other ‘surprises’.
Smith is exactly the type of player they go for. In terms of his physical potential he’s a top-20 talent. There aren’t many players with his size, length, agility and explosive power. He is a top-tier athlete at defensive tackle.
Here’s a recap of his physical profile:
Height: 6-3
Weight: 308lbs
Arm length: 33.5 inches
Hands: 10 1/4
Forty: 5.04
10-yard: 1.74
Vertical: 35 inches
Broad: 9-7
Bench: 28 reps
Short shuttle: 4.38
Three cone: 7.70
He had similar explosive testing results to Ed Oliver despite carrying an extra 30lbs. He had the third fastest 10-yard split among defensive tackles. He meets Seattle’s threshold on arm length (+33 inches) and we know they love the short shuttle at defensive tackle (his 4.38 is an excellent time).
At the combine, he had arguably the best field drill performance at any position:
He’s a special athlete. The type that usually isn’t available beyond the top-20. He will be available beyond the top-20 for reasons we’ll come onto in a moment.
Furthermore, he was also the best player on UCF’s highly successful team. This has been a winning program for several years now. Hill is probably the most talented prospect they’ve had in that time. He’s a winner, as are the rest of the UCF clan. He has produced results in terms of individual production and team victories.
I wrote about Hill’s tape here.
So why isn’t he going to go very early then given this big build up?
Hill found himself in the doghouse at UCF with the coaches.
He played limited snaps and only started one game.
Here’s how he’s described by one anonymous NFC Scout:
“One thing that pops up is that he’s really opinionated about a lot of things. Big talker. He wasn’t always fun to coach so you have to keep that in mind if you bring him into your room.”
Personally, I think it all sounds a bit silly that Hill was essentially reduced to a rotational role because he’s ‘opinionated’. In UCF’s Championship game against Memphis he didn’t take the field until they were trailing 21-7. He then took over the game and UCF won.
He seems quite personable during interviews. A good, polite talker.
That said, we don’t know how disruptive he is (if at all) or why he was so ‘opinionated’. If he was speaking out because he wanted a bigger role in the defense you can understand why. He was by far their best player on either side of the ball.
You have to do your homework though. Seattle has two good sources in the Griffin brothers if they want to find out what he’s really like. I’ll be surprised if they don’t invite Hill for an official visit.
Pete Carroll is very comfortable around ‘opinionated’ players. The Seahawks did move some on a year ago but let’s not start comparing Trysten Hill to Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett. They still have plenty of opinionated players on the team. They’re not suddenly a team of choir boys just because a few of the big talkers have moved on.
If they want to land a defensive lineman from this great class with major upside and the potential for greatness — none of the big names are going to be available. They have to look elsewhere. Hill is an outstanding option who ticks plenty of boxes. I think the Seahawks will do plenty of work on him. They’ll try and work him out as a person. And he could easily be rated very highly on their board.
Don’t linger too much on media projections. This time last year Rashaad Penny was a second or third round prospect and Rasheem Green was touted by some as a first rounder. Think about what the Seahawks look for and keep an open mind.
Couldn’t they trade down again?
Possibly but I wanted to present a scenario where the Seahawks are unable to move down again. There’s not going to be a ton of desire to trade into the 20’s this year. The trade proposed (dealing with Kansas City) makes some sense given the Tyreek Hill situation. This projection only gives the Seahawks six picks (which is at least 1-2 short of where they ideally want to be). For that reason, they might be prepared to deal down from #29 for late round consideration to fill out their board.
Seahawks seven round projection
#29 (R1) — Trysten Hill (DT, UCF)
#85 (R3) — Trevon Wesco (TE, West Virginia)
#93 (R3) — Amani Hooker (S, Iowa)
#125 (R4) — Gary Jennings (WR, West Virginia)
#160 (R5) — Justin Hollins (EDGE, Oregon)
#168 (R5) — Derrek Thomas (CB, Baylor)
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