
Taylor Decker could help upgrade Seattle’s O-line. But yeah, it’s November. So who knows?
In the podcast this week we conducted a live 1-31 mock draft (the Pats don’t have a first rounder). I said I’d list it out in full today and you’ll find it below. It’s very much a loose projection, designed mainly to look at the kind of range certain players might be drafted. Do I think the Bears will prioritise replacing prospective free agent Alshon Jeffery over defensive help? Not really. But I wanted to emphasise Laquon Treadwell’s stock as a possible top ten pick.
Picks 1-10
#1 Detroit Lions — Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
#2 Tennessee Titans — Robert Nkemdiche (DE, Ole Miss)
#3 Baltimore Ravens — Corey Coleman (WR, Baylor)
#4 Cleveland Browns — Paxton Lynch (QB, Memphis)
#5 San Diego Chargers — Jaylon Smith (LB, Notre Dame)
#6 San Francisco 49ers — Tre’Davious White (CB, LSU)
#7 Jacksonville Jaguars — Laremy Tunsil (T, Ole Miss)
#8 Chicago Bears — Laquon Treadwell (WR, Ole Miss)
#9 Dallas Cowboys — Cameron Sutton (CB, Tennessee)
#10 Houston Texans — Shon Coleman (T, Auburn)
The Lions, Titans and Ravens aren’t likely to be in the quarterback market. If the Browns ended up with the first overall pick — or the 49ers — I’d have no issue putting Paxton Lynch right at the top of this class. He could go that early. I’ve said it a few times now — but teams are going to look at this quarterback class and decide Lynch has the bigger upside and the greatest combination of physical tools and accuracy. He’s leading Memphis, almost single-handedly, into the top-15 teams in the nation. Think about that. They beat Ole Miss, who won at Alabama. He doesn’t turn it over. He throws with touch and he’s mobile enough to be a threat as a runner. He won’t be Cam Newton. But he won’t be far off if he lands with the right team.
Corey Coleman is a production machine who competes for the ball and an elite athlete. He will destroy the combine if he declares for the 2016 draft. He has a realistic shot to propel his stock into the upper echelon of prospects — similar to Tavon Austin’s rise in 2013.
Laremy Tunsil could go as early as the #1 overall pick but in this projection I had teams looking at other needs. It’s no slur on Tunsil — and he lands with the Jaguars here because the value is just too good.
Tre’Davious White in my opinion is going to be highly coveted (leadership, coverage skills and an underrated kick returner). Cameron Sutton and Eli Apple aren’t far behind. Shon Coleman might be the most underrated player in college football. Like Corey Coleman, don’t be surprised if he leaps into the top ten in the new year.
Picks 11-20
#11 Kansas City Chiefs — Eli Apple (CB, Ohio State)
#12 Miami Dolphins — Jaylon Ramsey (CB/S, Florida State)
#13 Tampa Bay Buccaneers — DeForest Buckner (DE, Oregon)
#14 Philadelphia Eagles — Jack Conklin (T, Michigan State)
#15 Washington — Michael Thomas (WR, Ohio State)
#16 Buffalo Bills — Reggie Ragland (LB, Alabama)
#17 New Orleans Saints — Adolphus Washington (DT/DE, Ohio State)
#18 Seattle Seahawks — Taylor Decker (T, Ohio State)
#19 Pittsburgh Steelers — Kendall Fuller (CB, Virginia Tech)
#20 St. Louis Rams — Tyler Boyd (WR, Pittsburgh)
Eli Apple would make a nice partner for Marcus Peters while Jaylon Ramsey fills a big hole for the Dolphins either at corner or free safety. DeForest Buckner is a better football player than Arik Armstead who went in this range to the 49ers a year ago. Jack Conklin might end up at right tackle in the NFL — the Eagles could get creative with Lane Johnson to accommodate him.
Michael Thomas is just a terrific receiver with everything you want in a true #1. Reggie Ragland would be a tone setter and organiser for Rex Ryan’s talented but underachieving defense in Buffalo. Adolphus Washington makes enough splash plays to warrant consideration in round one. Kendall Fuller is a top talent coming off an injury otherwise he’d go earlier. Tyler Boyd is a gritty playmaker and the heart and soul of Pittsburgh’s offense.
What about the Seahawks? Right now it looks like they’ll simply have to take the best offensive lineman available next year — barring some big (unlikely?) moves in free agency. This need will be even more desperate if they lose Russell Okung. Ideally they find a way to keep Okung and then draft a right tackle. Decker’s an underrated athlete and should do better than expected at the combine. He’s technically very sound and has practised against Joey Bosa for a few years. Good personality with a ‘working class’ feel to his game. He should be able to start quickly.
Also playing into the equation is the possibility of Garry Gilliam improving at right tackle or even being given the chance to replace Okung (not out of the question). The Seahawks could look at alternatives later such as Indiana’s Jason Spriggs. They could even target a guard convert here like Germain Ifedi or Joe Dahl.
Ronnie Stanley is also still on the board in this projection and would be a risk/reward option to replace Okung. We’ve seen the best (vs USC) and worst (vs Temple) of Stanley recently. When he squares up to blockers and can hand-fight 1v1 he wins most of his battles. His effort, however, is so inconsistent and he frequently looks lost trying to find someone to block. Coleman, Tunsil, Decker, Conklin — they play with their hair on fire. Coleman and Tunsil in particular seek out the second level and just hammer linebackers. Stanley has this ugly tendency to coast through games playing at half-speed. It’s a real concern and I’d have a hard time personally taking him in round one. Such is the need for quality tackles, however, someone might feel obliged to draft him early and hope for the best.
Picks 21-31
#21 Indianapolis Colts — Ronnie Stanley (T, Notre Dame)
#22 New York Giants — Darron Lee (LB, Ohio State)
#23 New York Jets — Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)
#24 Oakland Raiders — A’Shawn Robinson (DT, Alabama)
#25 Minnesota Vikings — Germain Ifedi (T/G, Texas A&M)
#26 Atlanta Falcons — Joe Dahl (T/G, Washington State)
#27 Arizona Cardinals — Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Ohio State)
#28 Green Bay Packers — Jonathan Bullard (DT, Florida)
#29 Cincinnati Bengals — Shaq Lawson (DE, Clemson)
#30 Carolina Panthers — Braxton Miller (WR, Ohio State)
#31 Denver Broncos — Jared Goff (QB, California)
It’s still too early to even consider how this part of the first round will play out. I like Darron Lee and Myles Jack a lot and they could go earlier than this. Ifedi and Dahl can move inside. Dahl is performing well in pass protection for the Cougs, while Ifedi is starting at right tackle for the Aggies. A’Shawn Robinson offers very little in terms of pass rush and that could hamper his stock.
Zekey Elliott could end up going to a good team who can afford to take him in round one. In this instance it’s Arizona. He might need a bit of time to click at the next level — but he’s a well-rounded weapon of a running back. Jonathan Bullard has lived in the backfield all season for Florida and deserves a first round projection here.
Shaq Lawson might be the best pure edge rusher after Joey Bosa but there will be some doubts about yet another undersized Clemson DE. I have no issues putting Braxton Miller in round open. He’s dynamic in space, has shown to be a natural hands-catcher. He’s bright, intelligent and an X-Factor.
Jared Goff completes the round. He had another rough day against USC with one horrendous interception in particular. He’s a very skilled, accurate, surgeon of a passer at times. He’s also erratic and needs to be brought along slowly at the next level. The internet has decided to anoint him as their champion (see: Teddy Bridgewater, 2014). So expect major overreactions when he goes later than ‘Draft Twitter’ projects followed by repeated ‘told you so’s’ when he has a good performance (and stoney silence when, like Bridgewater, he finds it pretty tough).
For further thoughts on each pick, check out the podcast: