Author: Rob Staton (Page 66 of 428)

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

On Sunday the Seahawks have one last game before the brutal five-game gauntlet laid out by the schedule-makers that will determine whether this team is a pretender or a contender.

I would surmise that the Rams are a perfect tune-up for it.

Just like the first game of the year, the Rams come into this one pretty banged up — with low expectations — and the Seahawks have a clear advantage in talent. The Rams are also on a three-game losing skid as part of a 1-5 run in the last six games that has tarnished the shine of an intriguing start to the season.

While we are all pre-disposed to never ever take a Rams team lightly, that should work in Seattle’s favor as a sparring partner for the heavyweights to come.

The Seahawks are a vastly different team than the one that played in Week One. Key players for this game who were not available for that one include: Jamal Adams, Devin Witherspoon, Leonard Williams and Jason Peters. Add to that the growth of young players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boye Mafe (a very adequate fill-in for Uchenna Nwosu), Zach Charbonnet and the Rams cannot plan on playing the same team they faced in Week One.

On the flipside, the Rams have Matt Stafford returning from a thumb injury, Cooper Kupp is back and they have lost starting running back to Kyren Williams to injury.

The Seahawks are 4-6 against the Rams in their last ten games. That includes a high of beating them last year to secure a playoff spot, and a low of being bounced out of the playoffs in the opening round after finishing the season 12-4.

We have seen it all in this matchup.

How can the Seahawks walk away with a win Sunday and get some momentum built up for the stretch run?

Start Early

I have said this so many times about the Seahawks-Rams matchup I feel like I am on auto-pilot: The Seahawks must avoid a ‘let’s feel them out and see what they’re doing’ mentality early in the game. They have to get ahead of the game and come out charging and let the Rams try to adjust to them for a change.

Let me give you three Matt Stafford stats that back this up:

— First Down is his Worst Down. This year his completion percentage on first down throws is a miserable 57%. He has thrown for only one touchdown, had four interceptions and been sacked six times on first down for a dismal 70 QB rating. The Rams are nearly 50-50 run/pass on first downs.

— He is not good in the First Quarter. A 61.9% completion rate, only one touchdown throw, one interception and two sacks while he’s still getting his feet under him.

— About 58% of Stafford’s passes are thrown when the Rams are behind in the score. How does he do? Awful. A 57.7% completion rate, 12 of his 19 sacks, three of his seven interceptions are a pretty good story of why the Rams have been stuck in the mud the last few games. When he is ahead, he is far more effective. Coach McVay can settle into the game plan that he wants to play and giving someone like him comfort is just asking for trouble.

The Seahawks offense was one of the best in the NFL at early-game scoring going into the Baltimore game, ranking third in first-quarter scoring. In the last two games they have scored a grand total of three points in the opening quarter. Now let’s be right, they lost in Baltimore and they beat Washington, so it was not a smoking gun that led to a loss both games. However, a return to their effective starts would do a great deal in putting the Rams on their heels a bit and shaking up the status quo.

How can they get the offense on track early?

Run the ball

The Packers modelled a game plan the Seahawks should strongly consider in their 20-3 win over the Rams in Week Nine. The Rams started Brett Rypien at quarterback and couldn’t get on track offensively.

What did the Packers do on offense? They ran 38 times and passed 26 times.

They deployed a three-headed monster of Aaron Jones, A.J.Dillon and Emmanuel Wilson and didn’t ask Jordan Love to carry the offense. They got 185 yards on the ground, Love was a nicely efficient 20 for 26 for 228 yards and a sparkling 115 QB rating. They won the time of possession game by nearly 11 minutes and were never seriously challenged.

33 of those 38 carries were provided by the running backs, a number the Seahawks have yet to reach this season, despite the fact that they have a dynamic running back room that now includes Kenny McIntosh.

The Seahawks are running a 40/60 run/pass split so far this season and Geno Smith is nowhere near his 2022 pace in terms of production. A 20 for 26 passing game and a 115 QB rating off the back of a big rushing day would be a blessing for all parties involved.

One way to help this along: Oddly enough, the Tight End trio had some of their lowest snap counts of the year in Week One. Nobody recorded 50% of the offensive snaps and they were a bit of an afterthought as the Seahawks could not get the offense working in the second half of the game.

A return to 12-Personnel sets would give this team some muscle in the run game and give the quarterback some very attractive options in the short to mid-range passing game.

Defend the pass better

When we look back at that Week One game, the horrible offensive performance is what seems to have been stamped in our minds. But the defense was a confused, uncoordinated mess too.

The Seahawks managed zero sacks and only three pressures the whole game for a 7.7% pressure rate on Stafford. That’s about as calm a day any NFL quarterback could ask for.

The Seahawks kept switching their defense up, hoping something would stop the offense. This caused communication issues, misalignments and the Rams took advantage nearly every single time.

Whenever they rushed only four and dropped seven, they simply ran the ball on that light front or Stafford still found open receivers and picked them apart on in-breaking routes again and again. Puka Nacua burst onto the scene with 10 catches for 119 yards in his first NFL game in an impressive performance.

Now to be fair, the Seahawks have since tightened up and been more solidified as a unit — particularly on the in-breaking routes.

But a new (and yet old) defensive problem has emerged for Sean McVay to scheme to attack this defense: the Running Back pass.

It is an old weakness that had not really gone away but has just recently been exploited by opponents in 2023. It reared its ugly head Sunday against the Commanders. The running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson combined for 11 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Several plays were ugly coverage breakdowns by the Seahawks and the Commanders exploited them to great effect.

Now the Seahawks currently stand – once again – as one of the worst teams in the NFL in defending running backs in the passing game.

That throws into sharp relief a paradox that has been growing and growing the last few weeks: If Riq Woolen (78 QB Rat/51% comp rate Allowed), Tre Brown (75/65%) and Devon Witherspoon (80/55%) have been so stunningly effective so far this season, why are the Seahawks in the bottom half of the NFL in pass defense?

Two problems were revealed Sunday by the Commanders: On both of their big running back catch plays, they found Boye Mafe (51 yards) and Dre Jones (48 yards) in coverage on their backs and exploited that for 99 yards.

Call it luck, call it scheming genius, call it whatever you want. There is absolutely zero chance that those plays escaped Sean McVay’s attention.

They simply cannot happen Sunday and yet the likelihood given this defense’s history against the Rams seems high that they will. How can the Seahawks mitigate the damage? That brings us to the other piece of the puzzle.

Yards after catch

Both of those explosive plays were obviously fuelled by the yards after the catch. Yet it isn’t simply a problem of singular big plays. It is a challenge the very middle of the defense is experiencing on a regular basis.

Julian Love (109 QBR/75% comp rate), Bobby Wagner (105/74%) and Jordyn Brooks (94/82%) comprise a little over a third of the defensive targets in the passing game this year for the Seahawks. Those numbers – particularly for the linebackers – look ugly — and they are. Yet often times they are guarding the dump-offs, where a completion is simple and so QB Rating and Completion % are rightly pretty high. So, keep that in mind.

However – and this is a big however – the yards after catch allowed are a problem for this trio. They have allowed 468 yards after the catch, accounting for 20% of the defense’s passing yardage conceded. The two linebackers have conceded 331 of those yards after catch.

How does the team solve this?

More consistent pressure on the quarterback is a great start. That can slow down every process and make things harder.

The other way to solve it is so simple it almost is ridiculous to mention.

Tackle guys. Get them to the ground. Tackling has again been a problem for the Seahawks this year. They have 60 missed tackles as a team per Pro Football Reference and the Love/Wagner/Brooks trio has 16 of those.

We have seen runners and receivers pinballing off of defenders who are not in good form to tackle. That is unacceptable. The Seahawks simply must not allow receivers the chance to make more football moves after receiving the ball.

The Rams do not have a deep running back group and this is Matt Stafford’s first game back after a thumb injury. They will likely try all kinds of short passes and clever edge runs of wide receivers to get the offense in gear and ease Stafford back into the game.

This is not some deep mystery. They have done it – and done it well – against Seattle for years.

If the Seahawks want to control this game flow, they must tackle well, cover tightly and be schemed to close these weaknesses and give the offense the ball back.

I’ve spent the last few days watching every LSU game from this season, focusing on quarterback Jayden Daniels.

I’ve regularly suggested there’s a lot of ‘one-read-and-run’ stuff with Daniels. That is true. He’s a very dynamic runner and teams struggle to contain him. If his primary target isn’t open, he will often get into backyard mode to make something happen.

However, having studied him closely now I think it’d be doing him a disservice not to talk more about the positives within his game.

Firstly — regulars to the blog will know I like to focus on how transferable an environment is. There are big-name quarterbacks in college who aren’t touched. They sit in clean pockets playing pitch-and-catch. It’s not that difficult for a talented quarterback to impress in that situation. It’s also tricky to project how they will handle the NFL when suddenly they are faced with constant pressure. There are mechanical habits that are suddenly exposed. Players who never had to throw layered passes and deliver throws with anticipation realise that’s the name of the game.

At LSU, there aren’t many layered passes. A lot of it is throwing on the run, throwing downfield when identifying 1v1 opportunities, throwing over the middle to open targets and the basic, high-percentage throws. However, Daniels does face pressure and he handles it well. There are multiple examples on tape of him buying time in the pocket, extending plays with nimble footwork, then re-setting to deliver a strike. You also see him throw just as he’s about to get hammered in the pocket — standing tall, delivering an accurate pass for a big play even when he knows a big hit is coming.

This is the kind of thing that travels to the next level. It’s not going to be completely foreign to him. LSU gives up 2.1 sacks a game — only the 72nd best record in college football. This is a far cry from Oregon (0.4 sacks per game) and Washington (0.7 sacks per game) to use the two most extreme examples.

Daniels doesn’t have a cannon but his arm strength is in the ‘good enough’ category. He throws with nice touch, looping downfield passes and hitting receivers in stride. His ball-placement can be very good on deeper throws and he has a high number of explosive plays. As we’ve noted a few times, he’s second only to Drake Maye (30) in ‘big time throws’ this season per PFF (Daniels has 26). His ‘big time throw percentage’ (the percentage number of throws that are explosive) leads college football at 9%.

This feels quite important because we know the Seahawks like creative quarterbacks who can hit big plays downfield. Daniels has shown he can do this. So while he’s not quite throwing layered passes in-between defenders consistently over the middle in a pro-style offense with different progressions — he can make big plays downfield with accuracy. For that reason, I’d say he fits.

As a runner he is a real threat. I think one of the reasons he’s so successful is because he can hit the edge so quickly. Daniels can go from standing in the pocket to accelerating to the perimeter in no time at all. From there, it’s almost effortless how he can change direction and get upfield. There’s almost no wasted movement from the moment he sets off, changes direction and he uses that just as well when dodging tackles. His agility and speed appear to be excellent.

I do think this will translate. Now — he’s not a big player. He’s listed at 6-4 and 210lbs and that’s after some serious weight-work last summer. He’ll need to learn when to quit on runs (he can do a better job sliding). Yet it’s very easy to imagine him being an absolute terror when an offense goes up-tempo. He’ll be able to scramble around in the pocket and the threat to break contain will be a major headache for a defense in every game. Daniels the runner isn’t a nice little wrinkle to his game — it’s a major factor. You want to get him moving around like the early Russell years. He’s good at sensing a crease and maxing out opportunities.

There are also clearly moments of genuine inspiration on the move. Improvisation and elusiveness has never been more important. There are plays where he’s really good at dropping, subtly moving around to stay clean and he extends plays with his footwork. On multiple occasions receivers would uncover and he’s adept at finding them in this situation. You need this in the NFL.

One area for concern is he needs to do a better job being quicker over the middle on intermediate passes. He also needs to drive those throws in. He doesn’t have the rocket-arm to fire into a receiver in tight coverage on shorter routes and he had a pick against Arkansas where the defender read his eyes and just undercut a fairly tame throw. He’ll need to disguise these plays better too because as noted, he’s not making a lot of progressions. He can use a bit of shorter-range venom to the arm too.

Statistically he’s having a huge year. He’s already up to 38 total touchdowns compared to four picks. As a comparison, Russell Wilson had 40 total touchdowns for Wisconsin in 2011 and four interceptions.

Increasingly I think this about Daniels. He’s a very creative player who can deliver big plays in the passing game, he’s elusive in the pocket and a constant threat to break off big runs. A defensive opponent will need to guard against him in so many different ways. Yes — he is going to need to learn to operate in a pro-system and he’ll need to continue to work on his strength to drive those intermediate passes into tight windows. Yet there’s no reason why he can’t develop into an asset over time.

He is not the prototypical big, strong, dynamic thrower but I do now think he could be a lesser version of Lamar Jackson. His arm isn’t quite as strong and he’s not quite as dynamic as a runner — but he’s not a mile away either.

Daniels had his worst performance of the season in week one against Florida State and hasn’t really looked back after that. How early could he go? That’s difficult to answer at this stage. If he turned up at the combine and ran a 4.4 before throwing well — all bets are off. A great Senior Bowl would really help him too and he could use that to separate from other players with a strong week in Mobile.

I’ve moved him into a round two grade with the feeling he could rise beyond that in time. There’s just too much creativity, too much athleticism, too many big throws downfield to ignore.

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Notes on three players Seahawks fans should be monitoring…

— Michael Penix Jr had a typically eventful game against Utah. Once again he delivered some outstanding throws that only he is currently capable of in college football. Brock Huard mentioned on the broadcast he has 11-inch hands, which is incredible (and probably makes it difficult to find a pair of winter gloves).

He was also erratic at times, missing on a number of throws and again appearing to throw to areas rather than deliver passes with anticipation and precision.

I had a look at the stats today and this is interesting:

Games 1-5 — 33 pressures, 74.9% completions

Games 6-10 — 61 pressures, 62.2% completions

I think it shows how pressure is impacting him. This is my concern. A lot of his snaps are in the gun, playing pitch-and-catch to top-end receivers behind a good O-line. Washington only give up 0.7 sacks a game, now the third best record in college.

In the NFL he isn’t going to have this environment. He’s going to be pressured a lot more, he’s going to have a lot less time and he’s not going to be able to throw to areas. He’s going to need to make quick, precise reads then deliver layered throws with timing and anticipation.

Penix’s arm is intriguing. It’s impossible not to be impressed by it. Yet a vital part of projection is to determine how a player translates to the next level. C.J. Stroud had similar benefits to Penix at Ohio State but showed against Georgia in the playoffs that it didn’t matter. He could play a pro-game under duress and still look incredible. What we saw from Stroud against Georgia, we’re seeing in the NFL now. It feels like Penix needs that type of performance if he’s going to go as high as some think.

— Reports are emerging that Quinn Ewers will return to Texas next year. In terms of his personal development, I think it’s the best decision. As a Seahawks fan, I’ll be disappointed if this is true.

I’ve really gone back and forth on Ewers. Some of his erraticism is tough to take. He has improved this season but the occasional glaring error still pops up on tape. Yet the more you watch and the closer you study him — you start to really see the natural talent he has. Ewers has such easy arm strength. He generates velocity with almost no effort. Penix has to put a lot of his body into throws, even with those 11-inch hands. With Ewers, a flick of the wrist gets the ball high and downfield. It’s highly impressive and speaks to the unbelievable level of potential he possesses.

A few weeks ago I started to think he just needed time and games. He’s clearly progressed from 2022 to 2023. Another year starting for Texas could put him in contention to be the #1 pick in 18 months. The only concern would be injuries (he’s missed time in the last two years). Plus, it’s unclear how Texas will view things given Arch Manning is waiting in the wings.

I think he’d be a really good option for Seattle. His stock wouldn’t be as high in 2024 as it might be in 2025, putting him in range. You might need to live through some early growing pains but when things clicked for Ewers and the pro-game slows down, you could be left with an amazing talent. He’s also the type of player and person I think John Schneider will really rate.

Losing him as an option next April would be a big blow. There are other quarterbacks the Seahawks could consider but increasingly I’ve thought Ewers would be a likely key target. Nothing has been confirmed yet and if the Longhorns make a National Championship run in the coming weeks, things can change. Only a few weeks ago there was a report suggesting JJ McCarthy would return to Michigan and now the latest is he’s likely to turn pro. Things can change.

Staying at Texas might be best for Ewers. Selfishly, I want what might be best for the Seahawks instead.

— Without a shadow of a doubt, Jayden Daniels should be in the Heisman mix. What he’s doing week-to-week is incredible. The production, the combination of running and throwing. It’s highly impressive. Plus, he has been consistent throughout the season after struggling in the opener against Florida State.

It’s started to put him more on the draft radar for fans and media. I studied some of his tape on Monday and wanted to offer a few thoughts.

There’s certainly physical talent on display. He has a good arm and can throw the ball downfield for big, explosive plays. Per PFF, he has 27 ‘big time throws’ this season. Only Drake Maye (30) has more. His ‘big time throw percentage’ (the number of times a throw results in a big play) ranks first in the NCAA (9.4%).

As a runner, he’s quite unique. He snakes in-and-out of tacklers like a player in Madden. He can shift his body with suddenness then change direction with ease. He dodges tackles about as well as anyone. Then, he has the acceleration to turn a good play into a great play.

For this reason there has to be a degree of intrigue. The raw tools are there to work with. Plus, not every player needs to be a classic prototype to succeed in the NFL. Some journeys are a little bit different. Take Russell Wilson, who’s height was a big talking point and he was essentially shuffled out at NC State so they could start Mike Glennon. Jalen Hurts was benched by Alabama, transferred, never really looked like an obvious pro-prospect until the Senior Bowl and combine and now he’s months removed from a Super Bowl appearance and he leads one of the most potent offense’s in the NFL.

When I was watching the tape though, it simply validated the opinion I already had on Daniels. Whether it’s the system or the player — everything is one-read-and-run. There are plenty of designed QB draws. There’s very little evidence of progressing through targets and staying patient in the pocket. Either by design or instinct, he’s setting off and running if the initial target isn’t open. It works for LSU — but you can’t do this in the NFL.

It means you’re left to try and project. Teams will need to determine whether he can become a player who can operate in a pro-system with running ability as a fantastic bonus — rather than relying on it when the first read isn’t there. That isn’t easy to do.

I can’t imagine I’ll change my view until the all-star games. Daniels is going to be a really tricky projection. If a team took him on day two, I’d be intrigued to see how he gets on and wouldn’t criticise the pick. Could he end up being another Hurts? Maybe. Equally, I can totally understand why he might last beyond day two and wouldn’t criticise the NFL collective for passing in that range.

I noticed Brock Huard made a passing reference to Lamar Jackson on 710 Seattle Sports recently. I understand that comparison given the running production/ability. I’d also say, though, that Jackson was evidently special in college. It was a few years ago now but Jackson was an old-time blog favourite. The way he played for Louisville was legitimately special. He did things other players cannot — as a passer, not just as a runner. I can still remember banging on about one play action throw he did on the half-way line, a slight flick of the wrist and bang — a 50-odd yard touchdown into the tightest window downfield. Making it look easy. Then there was the legit 4.3 speed.

Daniels is a great runner and he has a good arm. Jackson was other-wordly though. He lasted as long as he did in the draft mostly thanks to a chaotic draft process. He wouldn’t run for teams, it was difficult to arrange meetings with him as he insisted on using his mother as an agent. He could’ve easily been a top-10 pick and basically did everything he could to put teams off. The talent, however, was obvious. We’ve seen that in the NFL and nothing about his career is a surprise.

Daniels isn’t a phenomena like Lamar Jackson. He is extremely athletic though, with an arm, and I wouldn’t rule out him succeeding with the right team at the next level.

I think the same about Jordan Travis. He hasn’t got a great downfield arm but is it beyond the realms of possibility he has a great draft process like Hurts and then joins a team where he can be a point-guard plus? He is, after all, making Florida State relevant again with a surprising unbeaten season.

Personally I think there’s a fairly significant separation between Spencer Rattler and these two players — but if we’re trying to identify depth at the position and options, there’s every reason to monitor their progress.

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The Seahawks need to draft a quarterback. They need to find someone who can elevate the team to another level. Delaying and putting this off is pointless. They need to bite the bullet, identify a target (or several targets) and go and get a QB.

That doesn’t mean whoever they pick will guarantee success. That’s not how it works. Yet there are two types of teams in the NFL — teams with legit franchise quarterbacks and those without. If you don’t have one, you should be doing all you can to find one. That means using the draft.

Mahomes, Stafford, Brady, Mahomes, Brady, Foles, Brady, Manning, Brady, Wilson. These are the last 10 Super Bowl winning quarterbacks. It makes no sense to try and emulate the odd-one-out of that group (winning with Nick Foles) instead of acknowledging the rest were top-level quarterbacks. Peyton Manning might’ve been a husk by the time he rode off into the sunset but there must’ve been some advantage in having one of the all time greats behind center, guiding the offense while an elite defense did its thing.

And that’s the other key thing isn’t it? The Seahawks don’t have an elite defense. Based on the way they handled the fourth quarter yesterday, it’s a long way away from elite too. They have some young, talented players but there are also expensive weaker areas and not enough schematic brilliance to counter this.

No, they need a quarterback. The sooner they get that player into the system the better. Whether they start in year one or year two, they need to be on the books.

I saw Geno Smith’s performance yesterday described as ‘spectacular’ online, with articles saying the level of performance against the Commanders is what’s needed to get the Seahawks to where they want to go. Really?

To me it just felt like more of the same. The offense, led by Geno, runs hot and cold like a tap — as does the quarterback. As much as it was a relief at the end to see Smith get a win, the first half was positively tortuous to watch. At half-time, for the first time, I thought we might be edging closer to seeing Drew Lock. Smith staved that off with a convincing end to the game — but let’s have some perspective.

Last week the Commanders traded away their only two edge rushers. Defensively, Washington were ranked 29th per DVOA (and that’s with Chase Young and Montez Sweat). This is a franchise, under new ownership, waiting to fire the coaches and rebuild everything. Smith and the Seahawks had to win this game. Job done — but let’s not overstate the achievement. Especially when the penultimate drive was extended by a generous pass interference call on fourth down that would’ve led to a turnover on downs at a critical moment.

Smith has shown that while he might be the man for today, he isn’t the man for the future. The Seahawks are three wins away from the QB earning a $2m bonus to his 2024 salary. That would take his cap-hit beyond $33m. The Seahawks, with only $6-7m in effective cap space to spend next year as things stand, can’t afford that. I keep arguing that no team can. You either need to be paying an elite franchise QB big money, or you should be paying next to nothing on a bridge/rental paired with a rookie you are developing. Paying a mid-tier QB ‘market value’ often just prevents you from properly looking for a better alternative, staying stuck in a purgatory of ‘not really contending’. It’s the Kirk Cousins/Derek Carr model.

Designating Smith as a post-June 1st cut would create $22.5m in money which can be used to retain Leonard Williams and/or go towards retaining a long list of free agent starters. That feels like a better use of money based on what we’ve seen so far in 2023.

Even with Aaron Donald and Sean McVay’s hoodoo next week, I’d expect the Seahawks to play well against DVOA’s #27 ranked defense. The Rams rematch should be a reverse of week one, with the Seahawks heading into a gauntlet of games at 7-3. The fear has to be that the next four games — playing the 49ers twice, the Cowboys and the Eagles — could see the team regress to mean. Whatever happens in that stretch, it should really only determine one of two things:

1. Whether Geno returns next year as a competitive bridge on a reduced salary

2. Whether they just move on

Smith will not lead this team to a Super Bowl. Or switch those two things around. This team will not lead Smith to a Super Bowl either. People talk about the Ravens and Trent Dilfer but the Seahawks don’t have a 2000 Ravens defense.

Just as we saw in 2012, the path to the next step includes a good young quarterback. It also includes other things — like better game-planning and execution by the offensive coordinator and not having a defensive fourth quarter like we saw yesterday. Drafting a QB is part of the next phase though, or at least it should be.

I gave my thoughts on the 2024 quarterback class in this article. This is the time. No more delays or excuses. It’s time to draft a QB.

I do think Spencer Rattler has the creativity, arm strength and pure talent to be a difference maker. He’s also faced true adversity in college and a NFL environment playing behind the seventh worst offensive line in college football statistically. He still succeeds, plays with poise, makes good decisions, improvises, throws with anticipation and touch and he has easy arm strength. His situation is a complete contrast to the likes of JJ McCaffrey (only has to throw eight times in the toughest game of the season so far), Bo Nix (high-percentage passing offense and only sacked 0.4 times a game — best number in the NCAA) and Michael Penix Jr (only sacked 0.7 times a game, throwing to the second best receiver in college football in an ultra-productive system). It’s crazy how overlooked Rattler is just because he plays for a struggling team. This is a player who has been through a lot in his career already and he’s now mature, experienced and playing within structure. He is shining.

Quinn Ewers is a long way from reaching his full potential but that final destination could be top-tier. His natural talent takes some time to discover but when you see it, you can’t unsee it. He has easy arm strength, he throws layered passes, he throws with anticipation and he has the best win/performance by a QB in college football this season at Alabama. He’s playing for a coach who has been in the NFL and nothing has been easy for the Longhorns this year despite a successful season to date. Ewers is immensely talented and the way he flicks his wrist and generates so much torque is incredible. He can get the ball out quickly with a variety of arm-angles and he’s a modern NFL passer who, so far, has only scratched the surface of what he can achieve.

I think Penix Jr belongs in the conversation for Seattle too. For me, he’s better suited to the Washington offense we saw on Sunday. Eric Bienemy seems content to throw it 45-50 times a game, running game be damned. Sam Howell has had way more passing attempts and drop-backs than any other quarterback in the league. In that kind of system, Penix could excel. Throw it 50 times, appreciate that there will be 20-25 incompletions but within the 20-25 throws that hit the spot, you’re going to get 5-6 big plays (including a couple of absolute highlight-reel throws). I’d be very intrigued to see Penix in that type of environment. Even though that isn’t really Seattle’s thing, his arm talent on the throws he does make is intriguing — although Sunday’s game against Utah highlighted some of the question marks. There were a lot of ‘throws to areas’ because the scheme dictates everything. This leads to a lot of cheap incompletions where it’s basically, ‘look off this defender, aim to the other side’ and you hope Rome Odunze makes a play. This is a very user-friendly system and far from a NFL environment. You also worry about his mechanics when he faces pressure and when you throw in injury concerns, I currently think he will go somewhere between #20-60. That said, there were throws in the Utah game that no other college QB can make and that counts for something.

We can go deeper. I think Will Howard has talent at Kansas State. He might be a third round type but there’s something there, even if he’s not for the Seahawks. Jordan Travis’ deep-ball might not be good enough but when you watch him, you do wonder if he could turn into essentially what Jalen Hurts has become for the Eagles. Can he be a playmaking runner/passer type who moves around, keeps opponents guessing and then gets the ball to his key targets on time despite perhaps lacking early round physical tools? Jayden Daniels is getting a lot of internet love. I’d stress that he’s very much a ‘one-read-and-run’ QB at LSU and that’s an issue for next-level projection. Even so, athletically and physically he has talent — he just needs a fair bit of time and development. Both Travis and Daniels have completed a lot more ‘big time throws’ this year than most of their college counterparts (27 for Daniels, second most in college behind only Drake Maye, 19 for Travis — ranked 19th). Plus without Travis, there’s almost no chance Florida State would be unbeaten.

The point I’m making is the options are there — whether it’s round one, two or three. The Seahawks need to make an investment. They need to aim higher.

The Chiefs didn’t settle for Alex Smith, they traded up for Patrick Mahomes. The Eagles didn’t settle for Carson Wentz, they drafted Jalen Hurts in round two just 10 months after paying Wentz a mega-deal. The 49ers might’ve had an adventure at QB but in order to get to Brock Purdy, they traded the farm to try and upgrade Jimmy Garoppolo and at the very least were not settling for anything. The Rams didn’t settle for Jared Goff — they traded for Matt Stafford and won a Super Bowl. The 2012 Seahawks didn’t settle for Matt Flynn, they drafted and started Russell Wilson.

We need to add the 2024 Seahawks to this list, not the list that includes the Vikings and Kirk Cousins or the Raiders/Saints and Derek Carr.

It’s time to draft a quarterback in 2024, whatever happens over the next few weeks.

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Firstly, thank goodness the Seahawks won. Losing to a team as thoroughly mediocre as this Commanders outfit, playing out their schedule with new owners just waiting for the chance to appoint their own coaches, would’ve been tough to handle.

Scraping to victory, though, exposed issues that simply can’t be ignored any longer.

The offense just isn’t functioning as it should be. For example, every week Pete Carroll reaffirms his commitment to trying to run the ball. Every week, they do the opposite. The Seahawks have used two second round picks on running backs and yet the ground game takes a weekly back-seat to the passing game.

The execution is off across the board. Confusion on routes. Miscommunication. The quarterback missing throws. They can’t do anything for long stretches, then they come to life for a bit. Carroll constantly talks about needing to clean things up (he did it again at half-time today, per the sideline reporter) and yet we’re nine games into the season. When’s it going to happen?

They’ve spent picks and cap-space galore on their skill players yet seem incapable of featuring any of them specifically to exploit opponents. Look at the Chargers today and the way they used Keenan Allen. I’m starting to wonder if the Seahawks have too many options? Other teams would find a way to bamboozle opponents with so many weapons. I think in Seattle, they’re simply bamboozling themselves. Receivers, tight ends, running backs. Are they spoilt for choice? This feels like a team that is almost worse for having so many options.

We’ve been talking about it for weeks but Geno Smith simply isn’t playing consistently well enough. If there was any doubt remaining, the Seahawks have to address the quarterback position in the off-season. This team will not reach its full potential without a better QB. Credit for the final two scoring drives, especially the game-winner. But we don’t need to pretend that, actually, he’s the answer for the long-haul after all just because the game ended well against a very average opponent, delivering a three-point win. Even the penultimate scoring drive at the end benefitted from a slightly fortunate fourth-down flag on Benjamin St.Juste in what otherwise would’ve been a turnover on downs.

Yet it’s not just the quarterback. They are schematically lacking on both sides of the ball. You can’t trust the coaching staff to cook up plans to outsmart their opposite numbers.

Are we supposed to believe in this defense? Not when they give up two way-too-easy scoring drives in the fourth quarter. That’s when you finish. They didn’t. They kept Washington alive. The safeties are too expensive. The pass rush, Boye Mafe aside, isn’t great. Watching at the end, you’re desperate for them to make a big play. They just couldn’t — and they actually gave up big plays instead.

There are positives. Devon Witherspoon is clearly a very good player. Mafe might never be a game-wrecker but he’s certainly showing he can be productive and could easily grow into a Cliff Avril-level talent. Ken Walker is a highly explosive playmaker who should be used better than he is (imagine what a s**t-hot coordinator could do with him). These are very good high draft picks for Seattle and highlight how well they did in the last two drafts. You need to hit on your early picks.

I suspect the next high pick they’ll need to hit on will be at the quarterback position.

The Seahawks move to 6-3 and even with Sean McVay’s stranglehold over the franchise, the Rams have stalled and Seattle should be 7-3 by this time next week. I can’t write that with much conviction though. The thought of this team emerging as a serious contender from the gauntlet of games coming up after their trip to LA is the stuff of dreams, sadly.

I just hope they’re willing to make the difficult decisions needed in the off-season to make sure we’re not having these same conversations in 12 months.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Time to prove your mettle, Seahawks.

After a severe faceplant against the Ravens, Seattle badly needs a game that highlights their strengths and keeps their weaknesses to a minimum, lest they become an afterthought in the race for the playoffs.

Expect to see tweets like this every week for the rest of the season:

A win on Sunday puts the Seahawks in a great position to make the playoffs 💪 pic.twitter.com/yp2YNgMLMu

— PFF SEA Seahawks (@PFF_Seahawks) November 10, 2023

With this game and a trip to Los Angeles to play the Rams before their brutal four-game stretch, they have no time to casually work out their many issues. They must get back on track right now.

Washington provides an intriguing opponent at this stage in the season. They too have gone 2-2 in their last four games, with wins against the Falcons and Patriots mixed in with competitive losses in division games against the Eagles and Giants.

Offensive Coordinator Eric Bienemy has been working with quarterback Sam Howell and they have done a nice job using all of their offensive weapons — and lately minimizing the impact of having a porous offensive line. Defensively they are in a rebuild of sorts, having traded Chase Young and Montez Sweat. Safety Kamren Curl is their leading tackler which is generally not a good sign.

Control the Game with the Offense

The Commanders are rolling out one of the worst defenses in the NFL currently. They are conceding 28 points per game, an average of 252 yards per game (good for #28), and 4.3 yards per rush (#26) for an ugly 5.7 yards per play total (#29). They are conceding nearly 40% of third downs.

They have holes on every level of their defense and nothing to really hang their hat on. This matchup is just primed for a game where the offense deploys several different weapons and challenges the Commanders’ offense to keep up.

The pass rush is only getting 20.8% pressure on the season and that includes the 11.5 sacks they traded away in Young and Sweat. The offensive line has a great chance to redeem themselves from a poor performance in Baltimore against this line.

In pass protection, the numbers are showing that quarterbacks have time to pass on this defensive backfield. Emmanuel Forbes is conceding a whopping 19.5 yards per completion on 21 catches (one of the worst numbers in the NFL), Kendall Fuller 11.4 yards per on 39 catches and has conceded 6 touchdowns.

Blog favorite Benjamin St-Juste is playing well though. He should provide a good matchup for D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Tight ends are feasting on this team, catching five touchdowns so far and being targeted regularly. That was even before old friend Cody Barton and his 126 QB rating conceded in coverage landed on IR.

The point being, the Seahawks should have the freedom to plan their game as they see fit to attack this defense. It is less about where Washington displays their strengths and more about the Seahawks strategizing and executing well.

There is, however, one area of concern for the offense to monitor…

Keep the Turnovers Down

The Commanders have forced eight turnovers in their last four games. The Seahawks offense has had nine in that same span (and we all know they should have had many more…

This pass defense is performing poorly but that is not an open invitation to get wild and take chances passing the ball. A measured, effective passing game will do wonders for this offense. Geno Smith has got to take advantage of this break from tough defenses to get his head right and build up his confidence.

One press conference where he says he needs to play better is admirable. A great statement of accountability and a display of leadership.

Two is pushing it.

Three is damaging.

Four is an open invitation for criticism and opening the door for all kinds of talk and questions the team does not need right now.

This is the game where you “play better” instead of making excuses and trying to be a stand-up teammate.

Keep Sam Howell from Being Effective

Eric Bienemy has worked well with Howell and is getting results.

The Commanders’ offensive line has been a disaster this year. Howell has been sacked 44 times and the offense has suffered as a result.

Lately though, Bienemy has dialed up several short, quick passing plays designed to blunt the pass rush and get the ball out of Howell’s hands so he can stay upright and in the game. It has been working.

In his last two games, Howell has ‘only’ been sacked four times, while being pressured 18 times (a vast improvement for Washington), while throwing for 308 and 388 yards. The vaunted Eagle defensive line only managed one sack and a 12% pressure rate on him.

How are the Commanders doing it? They are running out a 23/46 run/pass split, with half of Howell’s throws being within five yards of the line of scrimmage and nearly half of those being behind the line.

That does not mean everything is dink and dunk. He also has mastered an early-season Seahawk weakness: the slant and in-breaking route. Howell has the legs to move around in the pocket and let his receivers further down the field uncover for deeper throws. He has the arm and accuracy to make these throws that punish a defense that has fallen asleep by his many screens and short drop passes in the flat.

The other challenge is, Bienemy has Howell using all of his weapons. Terry McLaurin is obviously the feature wide receiver but when you watch game and highlight packages, you see him using Jahan Dotson, Jamison Crowder and Logan Thomas liberally as well.

This game is going to come down to who can control it with their offense.

The Seahawks’ safeties are going to be critical. Jamal Adams is going to need to help bottle up the run game and be a force on these quick drop passes. Julian Love needs to be stickier in his coverage of players like Logan Thomas. And Quandre Diggs needs to patrol the deep middle with force and better anticipation than we have seen from him so far.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Record: 2-2

Thoughts

I said in my last report card that being a Seahawks fan is a roller coaster. The second quarter was not for the feint of heart. Uncomfortable wins over teams they should have handled easily in Arizona and Cleveland, a tough loss to an underperforming Bengals team that could have been prevented and an old-fashioned beatdown by the Ravens on the road make writing a report card with balance and objectivity a tough assignment.

I am going to try anyway.

MVP

1. Boye Mafe

It is not even close. With Uchenna Nwosu getting injured in the Arizona game and missing the second half and then going on IR, the Seahawks badly needed Mafe to step up.

He has.

The numbers are fantastic this quarter: four sacks, seven pressures, 19 tackles, three tackles for loss, six quarterback hits, a pass defensed, a forced fumble and two fumble recoveries.

The Seahawks have a star on their hands.

Last year, the problem was Mafe not getting enough snaps. This year? It might be the exact opposite. They may have to keep his snaps at a manageable level.

2. Jordyn Brooks

The defense may be having its challenges but Brooks just continues to produce stats. This quarter, he had 1.5 sacks, a forced fumble, two passes defensed, 37 tackles, four tackles for a loss and three quarterback hits in only five blitzes. His strip sack of PJ Walker propelled the Seahawks to a big first quarter.

No soup for you!

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/45BCnHE3Ed

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 29, 2023

Brooks has responded extremely well to moving back to his off-ball linebacker spot and working with Bobby Wagner playing the middle linebacker spot.

3. Tre Brown

He’s been quietly very effective this quarter. He allowed only six catches on 12 targets, with four passes defensed, had a brilliant interception of Joe Burrow and a fumble forced on Odell Beckham Jr that gave the Seahawks a chance to close the gap in the Balitmore game just before halftime. This year, he has four turnovers forced in six games.

The camp battle with Michael Jackson for the left cornerback spot is over. Tre Brown has emerged victorious, and the Seahawks are better for it.

Rookie of the Quarter

1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba

He has finally arrived with an excellent quarter.

17 catches on 23 targets with an extremely healthy 12.3 yards per catch say the Seahawks have finally stopped using him as a dink and dunk line of scrimmage receiver. Well, they did on one play — but we can forgive that:

THANK YOU, JSN!

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/oCb4bg8YMb

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 29, 2023

Two touchdowns this quarter have barely scratched the surface.

2. Jake Bobo

Eight catches on nine targets for a gaudy 15.9 yard per catch average and an incredible toe-tapping catch in the end zone for a touchdown.

JAKE BOBO HAS JUST MADE THE MOST INSANE TOUCHDOWN CATCH YOU'LL SEE TODAY!

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/lZaGVNieAE

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 22, 2023

Does that catch look familiar? It should. He is just bringing the ‘wow’ from training camp into live games now.

His blocking in support of his teammates might be just as impressive as his catches. Watch him body a Cardinal defender out of the way for Jaxon Smith-Njigba:

Seahawks rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is off to the best start he’s had this year.

After catching his first career TD earlier in the 1st, he does a nice job here picking up a 3rd down on a screen.

Also, fellow rookie WR Jake Bobo does a great job clearing it out on the block. pic.twitter.com/iYeDN49EaS

— Seven Rounds in Heaven (@7RoundsInHeaven) October 22, 2023

3. Devon Witherspoon

This:

Filthy. 🥄

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/60EfiQiazJ

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 22, 2023

Also, because after that magnificent performance in the Monday Night Football game against the Giants, teams have been giving him the Tariq Woolen treatment: They have slowed in their targets dramatically.

And yet, in only four games this quarter, he had five passes defensed and yielded only a 61% completion rate. That includes a tough game in Baltimore, with two missed tackles and giving up six passes on seven targets.

His star has not stopped ascending.

Successes

1. First quarter scoring

The Seahawks were one of the NFL’s best teams out of the gate this quarter, scoring 31 first quarter points.

Their offense executed the pre-set game plan well, the defense forced turnovers and the Seahawks ran the ball explosively…

2. Explosive runs in Cleveland game

That was the ‘we need to run the ball more’ game. The Seahawks had 17 carries for 114 yards and a touchdown on the #1 defense in the NFL at the moment.

There were several explosions:

Kenneth Walker’s 45-yard run:

U Can't Touch This.

📺 FOX pic.twitter.com/hMH6NKP77O

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 29, 2023

And Zach Charbonnet finally had his ‘this is why you drafted me’ game, with explosive runs of 21, 20 and 13 yards along with some catches as a safety outlet

Zach Charbonnet Week 8 Every Run, Catch, and Target Seattle Seahawks vs Cleveland Browns NFL 2023

Charbonnet ran the ball 5 times for 53 yards and had 2 catches for 11 yards. #Football #nflfootball #fantasyfootball #nflhighlights #highlights #Hawks #12thman #UCLA #dawgpound pic.twitter.com/XkUBTT9F8P

— NFL Film Study (@NFLFilmStudy) November 1, 2023

3. Jason Myers perfect and Jamal Adams takes a header

Myers has shaken off a rocky start to the season and was 5-5 on field goal tries – including a 55-yarder in Cincinnati to send the Seahawks to the locker room down only by four. He was also 6-6 in PAT’s. In an uneven quarter from both the offense and defense, it’s a relief Myers has been there.

And who can’t laugh – ironically or not – at Jamal Adams once again face-doinking the ball — but this time in a way that benefits the Seahawks?

HEADS UP play by Jamal Adams 😉🤕

Seahawks get the ball back with under two minutes to go 👀

📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/HHZtDPbV8C

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 29, 2023

Poetry in motion.

Struggles

1. The Baltimore game

The most brutal game in a very long time. The Seahawks were outgained, outworked, outclassed, out-coached, out-physical’d and plain out-played. It was a horror show.

There is nobody in the organization that is free from blame. The offensive line was manhandled all game. Geno Smith could not make a good decision to save his life. The offense as a whole had several ‘what were you possibly thinking?’ play calls. The defense gave them key turnovers and not only could they not capitalize, they often just gave the ball right back.

Tyler Lockett had a miscommunication with Geno Smith on an interception. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again – when Lockett makes a mistake, it is so very rare that it only serves to highlight how amazingly consistent he has been.

On defense, they gave it a valiant try in the first half, but the offense’s inability to sustain a drive, the physicality of the Raven offensive line and the x-factor of an electric Lamar Jackson was just too much and the wheels fell off.

Their best players were slow to make plays and their defense just was terribly off as a whole unit at times.

It is yet to be seen how they will react. Is this a stain on the season that cannot be washed off, or is this the intense beatdown that they honestly needed? The character-building funny chapter in a book that has a happy ending with a deep playoff run?

2. Turnovers

Nine turnovers in four games. They are fortunate to be 2-2 with that record.

Six interceptions by Geno Smith. Three fumbles, two of them by Geno Smith.

And yet, that just scratches the surface. Smith threw several passes right into the chest of defenders this quarter. ‘That should have been a pick-six’ is a phrase far too frequently uttered in the last four games.

3. The Offense

In the two losses this quarter, the offense had multiple chances to keep themselves in the game, even win it. They could not convert.

After the Ravens loss, Pete Carroll noted they were 1/12 on third downs and that they had a whole sheet of plays they could not roll out because they just didn’t have enough plays to deploy them.

Even the two wins were unsatisfying from an offensive standpoint. After an outburst of a first quarter against the Browns, the offense was completely silent until the fourth quarter when it was do or die time. The Cardinals hung around in their game and it was far less comfortable than it should have been.

Next Quarter Games

Washington
@ LA Rams
San Francisco
@ Dallas

Third Quarter Goals

1. Find your identity

What does this team do? What do they do well? Is there anything that stands out to you? Honestly.

They have a good run defense? They just got plowed by the Ravens.

They have an absolute crack safety trio? Other than Adams’ header leading to Love’s interception, can you name an impact play anyone had this quarter?

They have a hyper-accurate if unspectacular quarterback? Geno Smith was a 62% passer with six interceptions and should have had 3-4 more this quarter.

They run the ball well? They ran the ball an average of 18 times a game this quarter.

They have a ton of money invested in dazzling wide receiver talents? Tyler Lockett had one touchdown catch this quarter. D.K. Metcalf? He had none.

This team is a convoluted mess without a clear vision. They need to find one immediately if not sooner.

2. Play Calling on Offense

Every single member of the Seahawks offense is on track for a career-low year. After every single game, there is a star-level player on the offense whose name you only heard once or twice.

It has taken several games to get Jaxon Smith-Njigba integrated into the offense.

None of the Tight Ends have a touchdown catch through eight games. Will Dissly played 100 snaps this quarter. How many targets did he have? Two. He caught one pass for four yards. Noah Fant is on such a bad pace (14 catches in eight games), he might not net a top-level contract in free agency next year. He is so flat.

The running back usage is hovering in the bottom half of the NFL.

The Seahawks have invested enormous amounts of cap space and draft picks into their skill positions. Fans should be complaining that in a 35 point, 400-yard game their favorite player “only” got five touches. Yet we have whole position groups that are close to invisible.

Is it purely Shane Waldron? Or is Pete Carroll also responsible?

The time to work out these issues is past. Cream puffs like the Giants, Cardinals and Panthers are in the rearview mirror. If they do not get up to speed on offense very, very soon, we will have many more games like the Baltimore blowout.

3. Run Defense

This team started out on a good track, with many pointing to their meagre yards-per-rush conceded a few weeks into the season. Jarran Reed was a great offseason addition, Bobby Wagner was not just a folk hero signed for one last go-round and Uchenna Nwosu and players like the emerging Witherspoon were becoming forces.

The wheels have come off. They now sit at #21 in the NFL at yards-per-rush.

We all know that the Ravens game was a disaster but signs of trouble were already brewing.

The Cardinals had four explosive runs on the Seahawks and several just under the threshold of explosive.

The Browns ran for nine first downs. Of their 155 yards gained, 117 of them came before contact. True, their per carry average was under four yards but they committed to the run, schemed for it and the defense could not get them off the field. It nearly won the game for them.

The Ravens game was a disaster. They were simply bullied and beaten into making poor decisions that burned them time and time again.

Acquiring Leonard Williams was a very expensive play. This team must tighten things up. Because when the weather gets cold and rainy — contenders separate themselves from pretenders. A lot of that separation happens on the ground.

This is a deep quarterback class, rather than one like last year where we see three go in the top-five. I suspect opinions within the league will be varied — with a lot of different grades being offered. It could end up being a very unpredictable class as a consequence.

Since September I’ve been building a horizontal board. Currently I have only one quarterback with a ‘legit’ round one grade but I have four others I would consider taking in round one, with another I think can get into that mix before the end of the college season.

With a lot of quarterback talk this week I wanted to put down some thoughts. Personally, I think the Seahawks should be looking to draft a QB next year. I believe they will.

For context, I had zero quarterbacks graded before round three in 2022 (the Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Matt Corral, Malik Willis class) and this year I had the top four ranked in this order — C.J. Stroud, Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, Bryce Young.

Caleb Williams (QB, USC)
He does things we’ve never seen before. His improvisation skill is remarkable, he makes throws on the run that are not of this planet. His ability to dodge tacklers is remarkable. His technical quality when he does stay in structure is good. He’s a strong athlete with a thick, sturdy frame. His arm strength is excellent. The only worry is he’s a risk-taker — he has a ridiculous 16 turnover-worthy plays this year (yet only 4% TWP rate). He’s a special talent who will be the #1 pick in the 2024 draft.

Spencer Rattler (QB, South Carolina)
In terms of pure talent, he’s competing with Quinn Ewers to be second behind only Caleb Williams. Rattler is QB2 on my horizontal board currently. He has everything — easy arm strength, improvisation, accuracy, creativity, mobility — and now he’s playing within structure. Long gone are the days at Oklahoma where he’d go out, trust his arm too much and chuck passes into double and triple coverage (leading to his benching for Caleb Williams). He’s also a changed personality. Listen to any of his interviews. Gone is the teenager you saw on ‘that’ documentary years ago. He’s a totally different person these days. Every week he makes NFL throws despite a ridiculous amount of pressure. Watch how he played against Georgia for example, keeping a bad team in the game against a SEC powerhouse on the road. He’d get more attention if he wasn’t playing behind a hopeless O-line giving up 4.6 sacks a game (third most in college football) and 145 pressures (also third most). He doesn’t benefit from playing in a wide-open spread system against terrible defenses either — the offense has pro-concepts and he’ll enter the league better prepared than most. Rattler has battled adversity, has been humbled and he’s grown as a player and individual. He should be talked about as a first round talent.

Drake Maye (QB, North Carolina)
He’s tall, athletic and has a good arm. His good moments are very good but sometimes he can be reckless trying to force plays. Maye officially only has six turnover-worthy plays this year but the ones he has had stick in the mind. I also think he’s praised for overly risky plays that improbably come off too often that don’t get counted as TWP’s. At the next level, I fear his luck will run out quite quickly (in a way I don’t feel about Caleb Williams). He’s suffered a couple of poor losses too but will be a high pick because he looks the part. He can make all the throws, he’s good on the run and it’s very easy to watch him and just imagine him playing in the league. Talk in the media of him being better than Williams is for the birds though. He’s sacked 2.5 times per game.

Quinn Ewers (QB, Texas)
As naturally talented as they come with easy arm strength, mobility, the ability to deliver layered throws and he’s showing gradual improvement as he gains more experience. The closer you study Ewers, the more you appreciate what he’s capable of (while acknowledging he’s not the finished article). He flicks his wrist to deliver downfield bombs in a way not too dissimilar to Aaron Rodgers (seriously). He’s had some issues with deep-ball accuracy but it has started to come along — and the loft and placement, not to mention the distance, he generates with his throws is elite level. He played a starring role in one of the wins of the season at Alabama. Playing for Steve Sarkisian helps and he’ll come into the league with a decent background and experience. You’ll never have to worry about his release in the NFL — he can get it out quickly and there are throws on tape where he shows excellent anticipation. He’s a deceptive athlete and can make reasonable gains as a runner. There’s still some erraticism he needs to work on and he’s missed games recently with a shoulder injury. That said, I can well imagine he’ll be loved by scouts who will appreciate his technical quality and potential. Texas’ O-line is giving up 1.9 sacks per game. He could easily be a first rounder.

Michael Penix Jr (QB, Washington)
Arm talent for days and consistently makes ‘wow’ throws. Some of his passes have to be seen to be believed — driving into small windows across the field between defenders for example, touch passes to the deep-sideline or the throw on the run to his left against USC that was one of the plays of the season. That said, he very rarely faces pressure (0.7 sacks per game, third fewest in the NCAA) and he plays pitch-and-catch to multiple NFL receivers behind an O-line featuring a top-20 pick at left tackle. His technique requires him to put his body into throws and this won’t be conducive with the quicker game at the next level where he’ll face constant pressure and need to deliver passes on time. Struggled in two games where he faced consistent pressure and 50% of his pressures this season (39/78) came in three consecutive games (Oregon, Arizona State, Stanford). Seven interceptions so far this year feels high given the environment and opponents (Bo Nix has only two picks). Sometimes he throws to areas rather than aiming (see the number of incompletions downfield this year). Injury history is a question mark. I think Penix is a day-two pick who will need to sharpen his release and would better suit an offense that prefers downfield shots over methodical, layered passes.

Riley Leonard (QB, Duke)
An extreme athlete who is yet to fully develop into a consistent passer. Excellent character and grit. Drove Duke to new levels before his injury and there’s a lot of potential here. Josh Allen was once very raw as a passer with outstanding physical tools. Leonard doesn’t have Allen’s cannon arm or unique size but a patient team could end up with a diamond due to his upside. Has a number of highlight-reel runs and would be an immediate threat to break contain and deliver explosive plays. His accuracy can be a fraction off at times but there’s also evidence of key throws on third and fourth down where he’s on the money in pressure situations. Has only three big-time throws this season — but also only six turnover-worthy plays. Recently suffered a high-ankle sprain vs Notre Dame, only to rush back when he should’ve been protected. Has now suffered another injury as a consequence. This could impact his stock or decision to turn pro — he’s been poorly handled by Duke.

Will Howard (QB, Kansas State)
Yes he’s had some lousy turnovers (eight interceptions) but Howard is big (6-5, 240lbs), strong, more athletic than you think and he makes layered throws into tight windows. He has shown he can throw with great anticipation before receivers turn for the football and he can deliver accurate passes downfield. His game against Texas was mightily impressive and showed what he’s capable of (it was also a nice palate cleanser after his ugly display against Oklahoma State). Howard is sacked 1.8 times per game. He could turn into a bargain for someone if he lasts to round three. There’s definitely something here and it won’t be a surprise if he makes a career in the league. I’d love to see him at the Senior Bowl.

Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
Credit to Nix for going to Oregon and turning his career around. He’s a good athlete with a decent arm and in the right system he could have a shot. Yet there’s so many high percentage, easy, short throws in the Ducks’ offense, it’s hard to get a read on how any of this translates. It’s all quick-tempo, dump-off, throw to the flat. Then the occasional bomb. It’s a very user-friendly system. He’s sacked only 0.5 times a game and he’s only faced 48 pressures, which is crazy. He also consistently faces overmatched opponents. It’s a dream setting and you’d expect anyone to thrive. The physical tools will appeal but I get the sense he’ll be a mid-rounder. There’s also the Auburn experience. With respect to the much-improved PAC-12 this year, there’s also a lot of chaff in the conference. This has been a perfect setting for a Nix comeback tour. In the SEC, he struggled badly. Auburn was chaotic, sure. But his disastrous experience surely has to play some part in the evaluation.

Tyler Van Dyke (QB, Miami)
A big pocket-passer who, at his best, can make wonderful timing throws to all levels and look the part. Sadly there are also too many mental mistakes and some poor turnovers. He has a high number of turnover-worthy plays this year (12). He’s not the most mobile either (although there’s evidence of some decent boot-leg work). His feet can get quite heavy in the pocket and he’s not going to improvise and create. In the right offense where he’s developed to read and throw he could have some success but at the moment he looks like a third or fourth-rounder. Modern NFL teams value escapability, improv and the ability to extend plays and TVD will struggle there.

JJ McCarthy (QB, Michigan)
I’m struggling to understand the first round talk. Michigan haven’t been tested this year and every game they play is a blow-out. He’s like the reverse-Rattler — gaining attention partly due to the domination of his team as they beat-up a laughably easy schedule, perfectly crafted to try and get to an unbeaten season. His toughest opponent so far has been either Minnesota or Nebraska — both 5-4. He’s sacked 1.2 times per game compared to Rattler’s 4.6 times. McCarthy lacks the big physical tools and even against mediocre opponents there have been inaccurate throws, misses and he has a tendency to place passes just behind open targets. He moves around well and it’s surprising how mobile he is to extend plays. He has delivered some very creative (and impressive) throws. I just think he needs another year to get stronger (he’s a shade over 200lbs at 6-3 — he needs to be bigger). I want to see him drive passes with more velocity and fine-tune his accuracy. The latest talk, however, is he’ll declare for 2024. I’ve given him a mid-round grade for now.

Cameron Ward (QB, Washington State)
Creative, mobile, reasonable arm and he (along with Josh Kelly) make every Washington State game watchable. He hasn’t been helped by the collapse around him and he’s started to force things. Suddenly he’s up to 16 turnover-worthy plays for the season. He’s faced 129 pressures — seventh most in college football, while his O-line is giving up 3.1 sacks per game (23rd most). I think he’ll be a very worthwhile pick for someone on day three, perhaps in the DTR range from this year (R4-5).

Jordan Travis (QB, Florida State)
Compact, athletic frame and while he lacks big tools he can get the ball to his key playmakers. He has 18 ‘big time throws’ this season. He’s a difficult projection because the way he moves around he’s clearly got a nice combination of agility, quickness and the ability to be creative on the run. You just wonder if he can get the ball out on time into layered areas within a pro-structure, or whether the arm is quite good enough to threaten teams downfield. I’ve watched games where he’s a difference maker but then you also wonder, is he going to have limitations at the next level? Ultimately I think he’ll need to prove himself as a mid-round type.

Brady Cook (QB, Missouri)
Another player I’m surprised doesn’t get more attention. He’s led Mizzou brilliantly this year, making big-time plays in most games and the Tigers are really competitive in the SEC. He has 21 big-time throws. Cook is a strong runner when he needs to set off, he can be very useful throwing on the run but he also changes his arm angle with throws and can layer passes to different levels. After a strong start avoiding turnovers (zero in his first five games) it’s gone a bit south recently (five in his last four) but that did include games against Georgia and LSU. Cook has also played through an injury this season. He might not declare and he could do with adding some extra bulk (6-2, 205lbs) but he’s a player I’ve enjoyed watching this season and there’s talent here, even if he’s not destined to be a high pick.

Michael Pratt (QB, Tulane)
Better arm than you’d think and he’s taken Tulane to new heights. He has been inconsistent at times this year in terms of accuracy. I’ll never forget the game against Oklahoma at the start of last season, where Pratt played like a man possessed in an attempt to cause a major upset. He also led his team to a huge Bowl win against USC. He’s accepted a Senior Bowl invite and attending Mobile could do his stock the power of good. Appears well thought of by team-mates. Has missed time through injury. His O-line is giving up 1.8 sacks per game and he has 12 ‘big time throws’ this year to go with eight turnover-worthy plays. Early day-three feels like a ceiling.

Jayden Daniels (QB, LSU)
A good athlete with a decent arm who has been credited with 23 ‘big time throws’ this season — a very high number. However, he’s very much a ‘one-read and run’ quarterback. At the next level he’ll need to start from scratch to learn to process a defense and make progressions. LSU’s line gives up 2.1 sacks per game. There’s athletic potential here for sure but I’m not convinced his draft stock will be that high. Equally, I wouldn’t bet against him sticking in the league. It’s just a case of how well he can transition away from basically just reading what he’s told to read from the sideline and when it isn’t there, setting off and running every play.

Players playing in the most ‘translatable’ environments

This means facing pressure, systems that contain pro-concepts and aren’t half-field or ultra-spread and taking on difficult opponents consistently

Spencer Rattler, Quinn Ewers, Riley Leonard, Will Howard

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A few people engaged me on X this week to suggest it wouldn’t be much of a problem to create cap space to extend Leonard Williams. A cheap cut here or a restructure here should get it done.

I wanted to write about this to try and explain what I think the cap situation truly is in Seattle. I appreciate many won’t read this but you can’t blame a bloke for trying.

The Seahawks have a projected $17m in cap space as Over The Cap notes. This is not how much they have to spend. It doesn’t account for things like the money needed to sign your draft class. That’s why OTC also projects ‘effective cap space’ — money you actually have to spend in free agency.

That number is currently $6.1m.

As we’ve noted several times, Bryan Mone feels like a certain cut to save another $5.9m. This means Seattle’s available spend is theoretically $12m for 2024.

The number of free agents they have next year is extensive. These players will need to be re-signed or replaced. Basically, they are going to need a lot more than $12m.

The full list of free agents is available here. See for yourself. I count eight starters and multiple other role players or rotational pieces. This includes Leonard Williams, Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, two thirds of your tight-end trio, your two starting guards, center and more.

I would suggest having $45m total cap space wouldn’t be an adequate amount for the task facing the Seahawks, let alone $12m.

Money needs to be created and can be created, provided difficult decisions are made.

People have talked about further restructures. This feels unlikely because Seattle have already pulled these levers and have some expensive cap-hits coming up on shorter-term deals. For example, D.K. Metcalf’s cap-hit in 2025 is already $29.5m. Do you really want to increase that by borrowing money in 2024?

You can’t restructure Diggs’ contract because his final year is in 2024. You can ask him to take a pay-cut but who knows how well that would be received. Jamal Adams’ situation is the same as Metcalf’s. His 2025 cap-hit is nearly $28m so how much can you seriously afford to push down the line? Remember, doing so only makes it harder to part ways in the future.

Let’s make it a hat-trick of players in the same boat. Tyler Lockett’s cap-hit in 2025 is nearly $27m. They’ve already maxed out these deals and can’t afford to be lumbered with elite level contracts in 2025 to lend on the credit card.

All of these players could be offered extensions to lower their cap hits. However, Diggs is 31 in January and Lockett is 32 next year. Long term deals stretching into 2026 and beyond seem unlikely at this stage. Adams’ injury history makes an extension highly unlikely. Metcalf could be a candidate but you’d be operating in a market where he’d have complete leverage, with the likes of Justin Jefferson about to sign his second contract.

The best option will be to make some difficult cuts.

I’m just going to list everything they could realistically do to raise funds. Remember, you can only designate two players as post-June 1st cuts:

— Cut Quandre Diggs outright, saving $11m ($10.2m dead money)

— Designate Jamal Adams as a post-June 1st cut, saving $16.5m ($10.4m dead money in 2024, $10.4m dead money in 2025)

— Designate Geno Smith as a post-June 1st cut, saving $22.5m ($8.7m dead money in 2024, $8.7m dead money in 2025)

— Designate Dre’Mont Jones as a post-June 1st cut, saving $11.5m ($6.6m dead money in 2024, $6.6m dead money in 2025)

— Designate Tyler Lockett as a post-June 1st cut, saving $16.9m ($9.8m dead money in 2024, $9.8m dead money in 2025)

— Cut Will Dissley outright, saving $7m ($3.1m dead money)

— Cut Julian Love outright, saving $5.6m ($2.4m dead money)

— Cut Nick Bellore outright, saving $2.8m ($1.1m dead money)

— Cut Dee Eskridge outright, saving $1.4m ($422k dead money)

Clearly there are a lot of levers and some moves will be harder than others but tough decisions will need to be made whatever happens between now and the end of the season. There’s no other choice.

Cutting Will Dissly (who has been a great servant but he took the third most snaps among tight ends on Sunday) feels viable. He could always return on reduced terms.

I don’t think there’s any chance the Seahawks cut Tyler Lockett, a player often described as the ‘perfect Seahawk’ and someone who continues to produce at a high level. If you think there’s any chance they move on, absorbing $20m in dead money to see him play for someone else, think again.

I also don’t think Nick Bellore will go anywhere. They seem to really value him as a core special teamer and he’s been written off for years, only to be consistently retained.

If they part ways with one of Diggs or Adams, that makes it harder to cut Julian Love.

Dre’Mont Jones could be a contender to depart if he doesn’t improve his play. He only has two sacks and a PFF grade of 53.0 — good enough to be the 92nd ranked interior defensive lineman in the NFL. That’s despite having the 19th best average salary for a D-liner ($17.1m). He is not providing value for money and they might prefer to transfer the $11.5m he’d produce to help provide resources to try and keep Williams.

Cutting Jones and Dissly would save a combined $18.5m, giving the Seahawks a total of $30.5m to spend. I still think one big move would be required to be able to stump up a big salary for Williams plus re-sign or replace a long list of free agents.

The most obvious candidate would be Geno Smith.

Firstly, this is due to the way Seattle used the contracts of Diggs and Adams to create cap space this year — making it harder to cut each player next year. That suggested a degree of commitment. At the same time, there’s always been a very clear ‘out’ in Smith’s contract after the season, with no commitment beyond 2023.

Then there’s the performance. Smith increased his number of turnover worthy plays to 13 on Sunday, moving him up to seventh in the NFL. The players in front of him are Mac Jones, Gardner Minshew, Desmond Ridder, Joshua Dobbs, Sam Howell and Brock Purdy.

He ranks 19th for passing yards, just ahead of Joshua Dobbs, Jordan Love and Desmond Ridder. He’s 19th in completion percentage, just below recently benched Jimmy Garoppolo and Ridder. He’s tied 20th for touchdown passes, 20th for passer rating and 16th for QBR.

His PFF grade of 74.2 ranks 14th but he could drop down to 15th quite easily given Justin Herbert plays tonight and is only 0.2 points behind him.

This is not the performance level of a player winning the argument over whether that ‘out’ at the end of the season should be used.

People often counter to suggest Smith’s likely salary next year is ‘market value’ for someone who might be the 14th-18th best QB in the league. To be clear, he’ll earn $31.2m plus another $2m every time he hits one of the escalators in his deal. Four of the escalators (passing yards, touchdowns, completion percentage, passer rating) appear well beyond Smith already:

Geno Smith Escalator Tracker through 8 games. Geno would have to play at an absolute torrid pace the last 9 to hit his numbers from 2022.

How torrid? Avgs of Aaron Rodgers' best 9 game stretch from his insane 2020 MVP season: 261y-3TD-75%-129rat
I think that ship has sailed. pic.twitter.com/gbRGS8T06U

— Curtis Allen (@curtis93969) November 6, 2023

The only one he has a chance to reach is nine wins. Thus, a plausible salary of $33.2m.

My counter to this argument is always that paying a middle-ground contract to a middle-ground QB is how you stay in the middle pack of the NFL. You either need an elite QB on a top salary or you need to seek value with a cheap bridge and/or rookie alternative. Paying tens of millions for non-elite QB’s who don’t act as difference makers is often just a waste of money. Plus, you often put a barrier up preventing you from earnestly looking for a better alternative.

If Smith’s play doesn’t improve, that’s the easy way for Seattle to create a chunk of cap space ($22.5m). Paired with Dissly and Jones, you could raise $40.5m and have a total of $52.5m to spend in free agency. That would give you a viable chance to keep Williams plus re-sign and replace your other free agents.

It’s also a deeper quarterback draft than usual. You could even seek to bring back Smith on a cheaper deal, perhaps creating a three-way competition with another veteran and a rookie — just as we saw in 2012.

I wouldn’t be opposed to going a step further. It’s remarkable that Diggs has a cap-hit of $21.2m and Adams is at $26.9m. Diggs is PFF’s 62nd ranked safety (58.8) while Adams is ranked 38th (65.3). You’re not getting value for money here. Maybe you can justify one of these eye-watering contracts but not both.

Raising further funds to really build front-to-back on defense could easily be viewed as a positive. Chris Jones and Christian Wilkins are both free agents next year. The Dolphins are in cap hell at the moment and are set to be $38m in the red at the start of the new league year. They don’t have many levers to pull and keeping Wilkins could be beyond them after so many aggressive moves. Plus, they need to make a call on Tua Tagovailoa next summer. Jones and the Chiefs had a stand-off during training camp and who knows if they’ll be able to come together before next year, with the franchise tag a less likely option now that it’ll cost them $32.4m.

The idea of the Seahawks being aggressive to bolster their D-line feels unlikely even if it could be argued it’d be a better investment than having a $48m safety duo with mediocre grades and minimal impact.

These are all questions for the future of course but an outline of the situation doesn’t feel pointless at this stage, especially in a week where the future warrants a bit of consideration after a 37-3 beat-down and subsequent reality check.

Can the Seahawks create money to retain Leonard Williams? Yes. Will it take cutting some big name players? Yes. Could or should they be more aggressive in the off-season than they will be? Arguably yes.

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