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Seahawks restructure Geno Smith’s contract

February 22, 2024 /

Per Field Yates, the Seahawks have restructured the contract of Geno Smith — converting his $9.6M roster bonus into a signing bonus and creating $4.8M in 2024 cap space.

I reached out to Curtis Allen so he could explain what this means (he’s also produced this great Twitter thread). According to Curtis, Smith’s new cap hit is $26.4m (down from $31.2m). If the Seahawks were to trade Smith now, they would eat a $27m dead cap hit (up from $17.4m before the restructure).

There are two ways of looking at this. On the one hand, the Seahawks just made it financially more terrifying to trade Geno Smith this year. They ate $26m in dead money to deal Russell Wilson but they got an epic haul via trade. That wouldn’t be the case here. Everything points, in that respect, to Geno being on the roster in 2024 and continuing as the unchallenged starter.

That wouldn’t be a surprising move but it does create some curiosity as to why Adam Schefter put the tweet out last week about trade value, why they’ve been fairly non-committal about Smith during interviews and why they keep talking about Drew Lock.

Have they scoured the trade market, found it isn’t attractive and opted simply to proceed? Maybe. I do think if the plan all along was to position Smith to be the unchallenged starter, the Schefter tweet wouldn’t happen and the GM and Head Coach would’ve spoken differently.

The other option is they just made it eminently more attractive for another team to trade for Smith with the downside being they just hammered their own cap situation to facilitate such a move. My initial read is that this is unlikely but here are the numbers, per Curtis, anyway. An acquiring team would only be on the hook for $12.7m in 2024. None of Smith’s 2025 salary would be guaranteed, offering an easy out. A buyer could also convert his salary to a bonus and pay Geno $7.7m in 2024 and be on the hook for $5m dead in 2025.

That would be extremely attractive for a cap-strapped team such as Pittsburgh. The Seahawks could also realistically expect to get better compensation out of a move like this, as the Giants did for eating a lot of Leonard Williams’ salary.

However, you typically hear about restructured deals at the point of the trade, not in advance. There seems little reason to announce this move as some kind of carrot being dangled. The Schefter tweet was almost certainly a carrot but he isn’t the person breaking the news about the contract, it’s Field Yates.

I’m also not convinced the Seahawks would take on a $27m dead cap hit now. The Giants eating Williams’ salary made sense given their season had collapsed and at that point, they were getting a nice haul for an out of contract player. They could afford to ‘buy a better pick’. The Seahawks eating $27m this year would make life very difficult to operate through the off-season, even with the potential cuts of Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and others.

They would still save $33.7m on the 2025 cap by dealing him now — and I guess they could maybe re-work some deals to lend from that. It feels a bit convoluted though unless they were able to get a fantastic pick in a deal — such as a second rounder. That doesn’t feel very likely for a player who turns 34 later this year.

Therefore, while a trade was very possible and almost felt likely before today, I’d say things have most definitely changed now. It feels extremely likely Smith will be with the Seahawks in 2024. That’s not any kind of shocking outcome but again, it does make you think, if this was always the intention — why didn’t they just say so? Why keep bringing Drew Lock’s name up spontaneously, when asked about Geno? What was the Schefter tweet all about?

And what exactly is the plan at quarterback? I appreciate that some Seahawks fans think the team has their ‘franchise QB’ but personally, I don’t agree with that. I think Smith is fine. He’s done a very decent job for two years as the team transitioned away from Russell Wilson. He is not a bad quarterback at all, he wasn’t a big problem last season. I simply believe that in order to become a great team in the future, they’ll need better.

I appreciate you can’t magic a great, young quarterback into existence. I’m also sure that you can’t just drift along. It’s very easy to settle into a position in the NFL where you’re not good enough to be a legit contender but not bad enough to get a top young QB. You just stay average. Eventually they’re going to either need to find an excellent quarterback or they’re going to need to go on a brilliant drafting run where they add blue-chip, not merely ‘good’ players.

If it’s a case of ‘wait another year’ I like two quarterbacks for 2025 — Shedeur Sanders and Quinn Ewers. In particular, I think John Schneider will really like Ewers. But if they end up being the top-two in a thin class, what chance have the Seahawks got of actually drafting either of them?

It’s also possible they’ve looked at this quarterback class and just thought ‘nah’. That’d be a little bit surprising though, given the quarterback who helped elevate Ryan Grubb’s offense to national prominence is part of the draft.

As community member Alex commented today, Schneider was the GM who signed Matt Flynn to a big contract while planning all along to draft Russell Wilson. Trading Smith at this juncture and only re-signing Lock and another cheap veteran would’ve been a huge tell to the rest of the league that the Seahawks intend to draft a QB. This would be especially fraught with danger if they wanted to target Michael Penix Jr, for example. In that instance appointing Ryan Grubb was akin to holding your cards the wrong way round at the Poker table. Now, at least, teams might suspect they’ll just pass on the class.

They might believe giving Smith the 16th biggest cap hit among quarterbacks this year is well worth the money to produce some misdirection for the draft, while covering against missing out if certain players aren’t available.

I’d love to know what they really think about Smith, this draft class and the future at quarterback. I sense we’ll not get clarity for some time.

In the meantime, I’ve just finished an interview with Wake Forest’s brilliant safety Malik Mustapha. It’ll go live tomorrow.

Thursday notes: What could happen at quarterback around the league?

February 22, 2024 /

Justin Fields to the Patriots?

I noticed in the Athletic’s beat-writer mock draft this week they had New England trade out of the #3 pick with the objective of taking a left tackle then trading for Justin Fields. Meanwhile, Daniel Jeremiah’s latest mock had them staying at #3 and selecting Marvin Harrison Jr, not a quarterback. Jeremiah says it’s with the idea the Patriots claim a veteran QB instead.

I get the feeling there’s a few whispers within the league that Fields to New England could be on. I think it’s plausible for a few reasons. Firstly, we’ve been saying for months that Drake Maye — while certainly an interesting prospect — had been wildly overrated by draft media. People were talking about him being the #1 pick a few weeks ago. In reality, there are going to be mixed feelings about Maye — and various people are starting to say that.

As it becomes increasingly clear Caleb Williams is a lock at #1 and Jayden Daniels will likely be taken at #2, it’s distinctly possible the Patriots aren’t that hot on Maye. A few teams won’t be.

New England might think trading, for example, the #68 pick plus something else for Fields will give them a two-year window to assess him on the final year of his rookie deal and the fifth-year option. Meanwhile, they can then go in a different direction in round one.

Don’t be surprised if they trade out of #3 for a huge haul to help build their new era. If Eliot Wolf is making the calls on draft day, it’s distinctly possible he’ll trade down a few spots, grab future picks and draft a left tackle. That would be very ‘Ron Wolf’. Alternatively, they could stay at #3 and pair Fields with Marvin Harrison Jr.

Vikings vs Broncos for J.J. McCarthy?

There could be a bit of a battle here, with both teams seeking to trade up and get their man. Mike Florio mentioned recently that he’s hearing the Vikings haven’t exactly been active in contract talks so far with Kirk Cousins.

They might be wary of committing major money to a soon-to-be 36-year-old coming off a serious injury, especially if he’s expecting another contract loaded with guarantees. Meanwhile, the Falcons (who have just appointed an OC who will be installing the same offense as Minnesota) are being heavily linked with a move for Cousins. Furthermore, Cousins’ wife is originally from Georgia and most of her family reside there.

The Vikings have, as some have called it, an ‘analytics-based front office’. As we noted in a recent article, McCarthy succeeds statistically in key areas such as third down, red zone and scrambling. This probably hasn’t gone unnoticed.

Meanwhile Denver is on the look out for someone who Sean Payton can order around and run his offense exactly how he wants. McCarthy more or less operated within that environment at Michigan.

Both teams could be eyeing the same player. Both could be aggressive to go and get him in the top-10 — even if physically McCarthy has limitations.

Could there be a run on quarterbacks?

I think it’s very possible. This is a very different class to the flawed 2022 group. There’s physical talent within the big names that can overpower concerns and flaws. Even though Will Levis dropped to #33 a year ago, it’s not like he dropped deep into day two. It’s plausible if J.J. McCarthy comes off the board in the top-10 as the fourth QB taken, Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr won’t have to wait too long.

Such is the diverse range for those two in particular, and perhaps Spencer Rattler, it also won’t be a shock if they last to day two. I’m just saying don’t be surprised if they come off the board in the top-half of round one. Both have excellent physical tools, were highly productive in college and neither have any character issues. Penix Jr has the medical question mark but he did play two full seasons at UW.

Las Vegas could be in the market for one of the pair (Al Davis would’ve loved Penix Jr’s arm). What do Denver do if they miss out on McCarthy? Can Bo Nix run Sean Payton’s offense? Then there’s Seattle at #16. I think it’d be foolish to rule out the idea the Seahawks see someone, such as Penix Jr, as the present and future.

And I get it — every time that comes up we get the pro’s and con’s on Penix Jr, those who hate the idea and those receptive to it. I think it’d be a bit high and it’d be better to trade down first. The thing is, his arm is elite. John Schneider likes elite arms. They just hired the Washington OC. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we’ll see six QB’s go in round one.

Where could other veteran QB’s land?

If the Raiders don’t intend to draft a quarterback at #13, Russell Wilson could be an interesting option. He’d be the big name they crave, plus he’d be highly motivated to beat the Broncos in the division. The cost would also be beneficial too because Denver would be picking up the tab.

If/when Mac Jones moves on from the Patriots, doesn’t it seem like a perfect match to go to San Francisco to back-up Brock Purdy? Who knows, maybe Kyle Shanahan will think there’s cause to roll with a cheaper Jones if things pan out, rather than paying Purdy a fortune?

The Buccs appear determined to keep Baker Mayfield and will likely ensure that happens.

It won’t leave much of a market for Geno Smith and this is why I think of all the options, Pittsburgh makes the most sense. The Seahawks might have trouble finding a market for Geno.

Meanwhile, it’s been announced Jer’Zhon Newton will not work-out at the combine after recently having foot surgery. Cooper DeJean will also not test in Indianapolis.

Identifying players with difference making skills

February 20, 2024 /

The NFL brings out a top-100 players list every year. If you take the top-30 from 2023 and look at where they were drafted, not including the one player who went undrafted, the average pick range of the NFL’s elite was #40 overall.

Only 16 players were first rounders and eight were top-10 picks. It goes to show that you don’t need to be picking early to find elite quality. You just need to identify who the hidden gems are.

Two of the top-30 were George Kittle and Fred Warner, a pair of players we talked about a fair bit on this blog. Kittle’s combination of blocking ability, extreme athleticism and body control jumped out on tape. Then he ran a 4.51 at 247lbs and jumped a 38.5 inch vertical at the combine. His stock suffered playing for Iowa’s impotent offense, where he had only 737 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns in four seasons. He still had no business lasting to round five and yet there he was, gift-wrapped for the Niners.

Warner was slightly undersized but the tape was good, he ran a 4.28 short shuttle (a key indicator for linebackers) and he was explosive (38.5 inch vertical). He was taken in round three and joined Kittle in becoming a mainstay core player for San Francisco.

Maxx Crosby has become one of the NFL’s best pass rushers in his generation. He had no business lasting to round four after running an obscene 4.13 short shuttle at 255lbs, to go with a 36 inch vertical. He had the tools to be great.

Aaron Donald was the best player in the 2014 draft. That isn’t hindsight, we said as much at the time. For the price of being a bit on the smaller side he lasted to #13 so he could terrorise the NFC West for years. He ran a 1.63 split at 285lbs, a 4.39 short shuttle and a 4.68 forty.

How did Travis Kelce last to round three when he ran a 4.61 at 255lbs and a 4.42 short shuttle? Was it the one year of production?

Tyreek Hill had major character flags and was lucky to be drafted at all, let alone in round five. Yet a 4.29 forty, 6.53 three-cone and a 40.5 inch vertical hinted at what he was capable of.

Sometimes it really is just as simple as trying to find the players with the special physical qualities matching to good enough examples on tape. There are busts too — just look at Christine Michael and Malik McDowell for picks that didn’t work out for Seattle. Yet if you want special you’ve got to look for it.

The Seahawks focused a lot on character in the last two drafts and it’s important to do that to avoid a repeat of the Michael and McDowell snafu’s. Yet for the team to take the next step, they’re also going to need to find some blue-chip studs beyond just the first round.

I want to write about three players who seem to have a special quality to them but before getting into the trio, there are others to mention.

There’s no denying Michael Penix Jr’s arm is special. It just is and for that reason, he could have more appeal with certain teams than some are currently projecting. Rome Odunze may get perfect grades from some teams at his position for his combination of speed, body control, ball-tracking, hands and A+ character. Brock Bowers is a sensational player and a top-10 lock, as is Marvin Harrison Jr.

Blog favourite Malik Mustapha has a rare combination of speed, reactions, intensity and physicality. He reminds me of Budda Baker. Payton Wilson has a ‘hair on fire’ approach and while there are legit concerns about his injury history, there’s a lot to be said for the way he impacts football games. Texas defensive tackle Byron Murphy is expected to test brilliantly and I’m intrigued to see how fast Troy Franklin runs. There are a host of good receivers in this draft and testing will be fascinating to see how they compare.

After the combine we’ll be able to pick out certain players with the high ceilings who could be destined to join the list of ‘players who went later than they should’. Yet the combine schedule is again designed around primetime TV coverage, almost certainly meaning, once again, hardly any players will do the agility testing.

Thanks, NFL.

Here are three players with the physical potential and matching tape, who could end up being drafted way below their talent level.

Cade Stover (TE, Ohio State)

I felt like I had an angle on Stover from last season so didn’t focus on him too much in 2023, so went back for a re-watch over the last few days. It’s time to take him very seriously as a player who could be the next dynamic move-tight end in the mould of Sam LaPorta.

Stover is going to test far better than anyone imagines at the combine. You can see it on tape. I think because he switched from the linebacker position, people have underestimated him. He’s a top level athlete.

For his size (6-4, 251lbs) he’s very difficult to cover and has a natural feel for where to settle into soft areas in coverage. He’s a very dynamic route runner who can separate in his break to create easy opportunities for the quarterback to get the ball out. He competes for the ball in the air and aces many contested catch opportunities. He is an expert at catching the ball away from his body, making difficult grabs look easy, and he has excellent catching technique — cupping his hands to the ball. Stover has rare run-after-the-catch ability and he’ll be a player who — if he succeeds — will be a feature weapon you need to game-plan for every week. He creates havoc as a receiver and that’s what you want from a modern tight end.

I’m convinced that after the combine his stock will propel into round two. If he’s taken any later than that, it could be a bargain. Modern NFL teams tend to need a dynamic pass-catching tight-end to succeed. It’s the cheat code for the league. After watching him again recently, I’d say he’s someone I would seriously want to come out of this draft with. He has the potential to play way beyond his draft range and, whisper it quietly, there is some Kelce to his game.

I’m not sure how the Seahawks will view the tight end position. Washington didn’t feature it that much under Ryan Grubb, utilising Jack Westover in mostly an impact role. That might’ve been down to personnel (Penix Jr’s arm, three great receivers) but I think for the Seahawks to truly threaten the better teams, they need a dynamic receiving tight end and they need a plan to use him properly.

T’Vondre Sweat (DT, Texas)

Sometimes you’ve got to just zone out the bad reps and focus on the good ones. When watching the Senior Bowl workouts live, Sweat’s 1v1’s were a mixed bag of extremes. I went back and studied the 1v1’s last week and noted I was less impressed than initially thought with Jackson Powers-Johnson. Yesterday, I sang the praises of Sweat because on reflection, he was absolutely sensational at times. I’m trying to lean more on the philosophy of Ron Wolf to focus on what a player can be.

Jim Nagy was tweeting about Sweat today highlighting the same positives. You’re watching a man who is about 360lbs swimming into the backfield with a great arm/over move. He flies by the blocker like he’s a 300lbs dynamic three-technique. Then on other reps, he’s getting into the chest of an interior lineman and launching them into the backfield. You just don’t see this. It looked like a forklift truck was being given a rep, not a bloke from Texas. His ability to mix power and speed to this extent, at his size, is rare.

When you watch stuff like that you think, how good can this guy be? This isn’t normal.

Then you look at the stats I highlighted yesterday. Sweatโ€™s run defense grade was 92.0 in 2023 -โ€” #1 among interior defensive linemen. His 12.8% stop percentage (number of times he was responsible for personally stopping the run play) ranked 2nd behind UCFโ€™s Lee Hunter. His pass rush grade was an 85.3 โ€”- seventh best among all interior defensive linemen. His pass rush win percentage (15.3%) ranked sixth best, he had the second most batted passes at the LOS (6) and he ranked 11th for QB hurries (26). In true pass-sets, his win percentage increased to 24.5% (ranked fifth).

This is outstanding production, hinting at a complete player who can uniquely produce in any situation. There aren’t many exceptional nose tackle types in the league — Dexter Lawrence and Vita Vea probably set the standard, with a handful of good players below them. Is Sweat gifted enough to believe he can be a Lawrence or Vea? And is the positional value there for a big body in the middle, especially when teams seem more eager than ever to attack the perimeter?

It could present an opportunity where Sweat lasts longer than he should. Not to mention the weight issue. He didn’t weigh-in at the Senior Bowl, amid talk that he could be anywhere between 350-380lbs. We’ll see if weighs at the combine. There may be some concern about how he manages the weight and I’ve said for a while, he could probably be even better by losing 20lbs.

What we do know is Seattle’s run defense has stunk for years and Baltimore’s was hardly spectacular under Mike Macdonald. Could someone like Sweat fix the issue?

Chop Robinson (DE, Penn State)

For me he’s the premier edge rusher in the class. His get-off is jaw-dropping. His ability to put the tackle on the back-foot immediately then bend-and-straighten like he’s in the Matrix is stunning. I’m not worried about making this comparison — it’s Micah Parsons’ esque what he does rushing the edge.

Robinson can also stunt inside, battle with his hands, press a blocker in the chest to bull-rush and he delivers consistent effort to work to the quarterback. Nobody else comes close to his talent potential and he has the ability to be truly special at the next level. Power, speed, balance, agility, bend, quickness. It’s all there.

So why isn’t he in the top-10 of every mock draft, often lasting deep into round one? It has to be his lack of production — eight sacks in his last two seasons. Yet it’s deceptive — he had 26 pressures in 10 games in 2023, plus 18 hurries. His sensational get-off and threat to bend the arc troubled quarterbacks consistently when he was on the field. He will impact games and it won’t be a surprise if, eventually, the pressures turn into sacks and he turns into one of the league’s best.

A good combine — where he’s expected to run in the 4.4’s at 255lbs, while adding a 4.2 short shuttle and a 10-7 broad jump, could push his stock into a more deserving range within the media. If it doesn’t happen, he could be a steal outside of the top-10. Robinson is a great prospect who deserves far more attention than he’s getting.

I’ll do a bigger breakdown during our annual combine coverage as more players with special qualities emerge. I think these are three certainly to keep an eye on. The Seahawks have drafted very well the last two years but they need to find stars and difference makers to close the gap to the other top teams.

10 predictions for the Seahawks this off-season

February 19, 2024 /

These are my predictions for the Seahawks off-season. Let me know how much you disagree with them in the comments section.

1. The Seahawks trade Geno Smith after the combine

From the lukewarm review from John Schneider, the non-committal comments from the new Head Coach and Adam Schefter’s quote-tweet presenting the possibility of a trade, the tea leaves are making it clear this is a distinct possibility.

It’ll require someone to make an offer the Seahawks are prepared to accept but I sense, rightly or wrongly, they are just prepared to move on. I think they want to get younger at the position, have the draft in mind and are willing to roll with Drew Lock if needed.

Rather than cut Smith and receive no compensation, they can flip him before March 18th and get something. They’ll save $13.8m this year and, perhaps more importantly, create $33.7m in cap space for 2025.

If Geno was the unquestioned starter for next season, as many believe, the GM of the Seahawks and the Head Coach had multiple opportunities in the media to make that clear. They didn’t.

This feels like it’s heading in a certain direction. My trade-partner guess would be Pittsburgh. The Seahawks need to receive an offer though, so we’ll see how it plays out. The combine is where any talks would heat up.

2. The Seahawks re-sign Drew Lock and add another veteran

Ryan Grubb says he’s giving new-parent advice to Lock, while Schneider and Mike Macdonald are name-dropping him in questions about Geno Smith. The Seahawks are spelling it out — Lock’s coming back. Whether it’s to act as a cheaper bridge than Smith, a genuine starter or to simply be a backup, they are going to re-sign the 27-year-old.

They were able to keep him without much reported competition a year ago so the likelihood is this will get done.

I think they’ll then sign a veteran backup/competition. Tyler Huntley, Sam Darnold, Joshua Dobbs. That type of player. That way the team has two quarterbacks on the books before the draft.

3. The Seahawks will trade down in the draft

They pick at #16 then have to wait 62 picks until #78 before selecting again. Unless they trade down, they’ll miss out on the meat of the draft class — with a lot of good options at positions of need on day two.

There are teams in the 20’s who could be eyeing an offensive tackle (Green Bay) and several who could be targeting a specific cornerback (Philadelphia, Buffalo, Detroit) so there should be options. The Packers having two second round picks is helpful. It feels like there’s a deal to be done here.

4. The Seahawks will draft a quarterback between picks #25-65

As mentioned earlier, I just get the sense they are going to go younger at the position and launch their new offense with a signal caller they can build around.

Listen to this interview with ESPN’s Brady Henderson on ‘1080 The Fan’. He notes towards the end that the Seahawks, in his opinion, probably liked Anthony Richardson enough to take him with the #5 pick a year ago. However, they were reluctant to set-up a bridge situation where Richardson’s salary and bonus added to the cost of Geno Smith’s contract as it’d be bad value in terms of the cap.

Brady is well connected, so this is worth paying attention to. I came away with two thoughts. Firstly, the Seahawks using Geno as a bridge and adding a rookie to sit behind him is less likely than some of us have thought. Secondly, it lends support to the idea the Seahawks might be comfortable drafting and starting a rookie quarterback rather than making them sit and wait behind a more expensive veteran.

I’m not saying this is the right or wrong way to do things. I think it might be their approach, though. They wouldn’t be the first team to think there’s huge benefit in having a cheaper quarterback, to make the most of the rookie pay-scale. And there could be an extra reason why they feel comfortable doing this…

5. The Seahawks will draft Michael Penix Jr

If you are going to start a rookie next year, it might as well be the one who spent the last two years working with your new offensive coordinator. He’ll know the terminology, he has a good relationship with Ryan Grubb and it could actually be a real benefit for the rest of the team to have a quarterback and coach who can guide as the new offensive structure is built.

Penix Jr won’t be a great fit for every team but I think he is for the Seahawks, as long as any combine medical checks are clear. I spoke to one highly experienced and respected talent evaluator recently and he voiced concern about the Washington quarterback because the offense he played in was full of pre-determined reads. I suspect some teams will share that view. The Seahawks clearly don’t. They just hired the guy who was running Washington’s offense to run theirs.

Penix Jr’s stock in the media has been a rollercoaster. During the season I don’t think enough people recognised he had a difficult stretch of games. After the Sugar Bowl, I think people got especially carried away. John Middlekauff — who’s great — called Penix Jr ‘the clear #2 pick in the draft’. Then he rowed that thought back a week later after the Michigan game. It’s why I wrote this article after the Texas win to try and provide some balance.

Now, I’d argue Penix Jr has become underrated. He’s an afterthought for many. As I said in yesterday’s piece, you can pull up 15 or more throws from the 2023 season alone and make a case that they are as good as anything you’ll ever see in college football. He has elite arm talent, the ability to throw highly difficult layered passes between defenders deep to the sideline, he can throw with outstanding touch 40-50 yards downfield and when you need him to laser a throw through traffic in the red zone, he can do it and make it look easy.

He led the NCAA in play-action passing per PFF’s grading system, he was second only to J.J. McCarthy on third and fourth down accuracy, he had more big-time throws than anyone else in college football last year and he led the NCAA in big-time throws from play-action.

Penix Jr isn’t perfect and there are legit concerns about his awful 23.3% completion percentage on scrambles, the way his completion percentage tailed off last season as pressures increased and the fact he’s not as accomplished on short and intermediate passes.

Yet if you want an explosive offense combining big shots downfield with a tough, physical running game — there’s really nobody better to do this than Penix Jr. He’d have a smoother transition to starting quickly working under Grubb, he’s an experienced and mature player and a good leader. His arm tilts the field and he elevated Washington to within one game of being the best team in the nation.

Trade down a bit, get some more draft stock and then select Penix Jr?

It’s not a ridiculous thought.

6. The Seahawks will part with several big-name players

Jamal Adams will be a post-June 1st cut to save $16.5m. Quandre Diggs’ cap-hit of $21.2m is unsustainable and he is cut to save $11m. I’m torn on what happens with Tyler Lockett but his cap-hit is nearly $27m and it feels like he could also be a post-June 1st departure. Bryan Mone is certain to depart, saving $5.8m. Will Dissly’s $10m cap-hit also warrants monitoring, given they can save $7m by moving on.

On top of Geno Smith potentially being dealt to save $13.8m, this would give the Seahawks ample money to reshape their team and shift resource to different areas.

One final thing I think might happen is the Seahawks waiting until training camp to make a call on Dre’Mont Jones. He had an underwhelming first season in Seattle. If by camp he’s failing to make an impression, or if he simply doesn’t fit, he could be moved to save an extra $11.5m. They can’t trade him until after June 1st, though, to recoup that saving. If it isn’t working — a player swap or a late-round flier could be in order to get the extra cap-room. It could be important too — remember, the Ravens signed Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy later last year and both became vital additions to Macdonald’s defense.

7. The Seahawks retain three key players

I think the Seahawks will hang on to Leonard Williams, even if they have a fight on their hands. He played very well on a struggling team in 2023, is a great fit for the defense and provides the impact interior rusher they’ve been trying to acquire for years. Saving money in 2024 and 2025 by moving others on will create the platform for the Seahawks to make a big move to keep Williams in Seattle.

I think Jordyn Brooks will also be back. It makes sense for him to sign a short-term deal (one or two years) and re-enter the market. Why not work with the Head Coach who turned Patrick Queen from a bust to an all-pro? Coming back to Seattle on a prove-it deal, with a chance to move back inside to middle linebacker, could be good for both parties.

The Grubb offense seems to like pass-catching tight ends and with it being a light draft at the position, bringing Noah Fant back would also make sense. There’s a player in Fant and a reason why he was a top-20 pick. It’s unfortunate he’s not had many opportunities to act as a focal-point pass-catching weapon in his career. I think they roll the dice on him and try to pair him with someone like Cade Stover from Ohio State, who will surprise people with the way he tests at the combine, or Ben Sinnott.

8. Bobby Wagner won’t be back

Everyone appreciates and respects Wagner’s brilliant career in Seattle but it’s time to move on. My guess is he’ll re-join Dan Quinn and Ken Norton Jr in Washington.

I think Colby Parkinson will also move on and try to find a fresh start somewhere else and Damien Lewis will only return if the money’s right for Seattle and if he’s a fit for Scott Huff’s plan for the offensive line.

9. Free agency will be about value

I don’t think the Seahawks will go big-game hunting like they did last year, landing Dre’Mont Jones. Instead I think they’ll touch base with a number of players, with the idea of letting the market come to them in the second wave.

This is how they’ve operated for most of Schneider’s time in Seattle and it’s definitely how the Ravens typically go about their business.

It’s how all the good teams do their business, frankly. Free agency is a place where you pay a premium price for non-premium players. There’s a lot of value to be had, if you play the game and know when to strike.

For example, what kind of market will Carolina’s Frankie Luvu have? Could he be a cost-effective role player for Mike Macdonald? Could a veteran guard such as Kevin Zeitler provide toughness and leadership to a new offensive line? Will Tampa Bay’s Devin White need to take a prove-it deal? How much will Jonah Williams make as a free agent and could his ability to fit at guard or right tackle be vital for a team like the Seahawks, with health questions over Abe Lucas? There was reported interest in Josh Uche before the trade deadline, could he be an option? Is Josey Jewell someone who can help provide leadership and organisation next to Brooks at linebacker?

These are just a few names. It feels like there are plenty of players who, if they make it past the first wave, could offer genuine value. I think that’s what the Seahawks will aim for — with any serious money being invested in the trenches/front seven.

10. The Seahawks will come out of the draft with high grades again

Over the last three weeks I’ve been able to study some of the players I hadn’t previously been able to watch, plus review some others. There’s sufficient depth in rounds 2-4 to feel like it’s very possible for the Seahawks to come out with a haul, should they manage to trade down from #16 to fill the void until they pick at #78.

For example, Iowa State cornerback T.J. Tampa is a big-hitting, tone-setting player with good coverage skills and recovery speed. He fits the Seahawks mentality. Austin Booker at Kansas is a long, high-ceiling edge rusher with untapped potential. Safeties Malik Mustapha and Kitan Oladapo both wowed at times on tape and could help form a new, young, cheaper and more dynamic duo as the last line of defense. Linebacker Nathaniel Watson organised and led Mississippi State’s defense while chiming in with 21 career sacks as a blitzer. Interior offensive linemen Dylan McMahon and Jarrett Kingston could be very intriguing later on. At defensive tackle, Ruke Orhorhoro and McKinley Jackson both have the feel of potential Seahawks. Alabama receiver Jermaine Burton has a lot of the skills Seattle likes, while the Washington duo Jaโ€™Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan could provide ‘BPA’ quality at a certain point in the draft. Both are underrated.

I can keep going. Zak Zinter at Michigan is a blog favourite. Emani Bailey’s Senior Bowl performance shone a light on a potentially dynamic third-down runner. Jack Westover was clutch every time the ball came his way. Byron Murphy is expected to test through the roof at defensive tackle. Chop Robinson has scary qualities as a pass-rusher and will be a steal if he lasts beyond the top-10. Payton Wilson plays with his hair on fire and there are a cluster of other linebackers — Cedric Gray, Edgerrin Cooper, Jeremiah Trotter and Junior Colson — who have the potential to start quickly.

It was also incredible re-watching T’Vondre Sweat’s Senior Bowl performance. The bad reps are what they are. The good reps were remarkable — he demolished interior linemen like he was competing against High-Schoolers. I don’t know if the Seahawks value the nose tackle position highly enough to take him very early — but his run defense grade was 92.0 in 2023 โ€”- first among interior defensive linemen. His 12.8% stop percentage (number of times he was responsible for personally stopping the run play) ranked 2nd behind UCFโ€™s Lee Hunter. His pass rush grade was an 85.3 โ€”- seventh best among all interior defensive linemen (team mate Byron Murphy ranked first with a 91.5). His pass rush win percentage (15.3%) ranked sixth best, he had the second most batted passes at the LOS (6) and he ranked 11th for QB hurries (26). In true pass-sets, his win percentage increased to 24.5% (ranked fifth).

Fixing the run defense will be a priority for Schneider and Macdonald and it won’t just be solved by scheming. Baltimore gave up 4.5 YPC in 2023, the ninth highest average in the NFL. Their 109.4 YPG average ranked 19th highest, so just above average for the league. They gave up 121 rushing yards at 6.7 YPC against San Francisco and gave up 128 rushing yards against the Rams.

Whoever they draft, there’s enough quality here to believe we’ll be satisfied with their draft class for a third year in a row.

Sunday thoughts on the Seahawks and the quarterback position

February 18, 2024 /

Just a few things that are kicking around in my mind…

— Are John Schneider, Mike Macdonald and Ryan Grubb all referencing Drew Lock, despite the fact he’s a free agent, for two reasons? One, to make him know how much they want to retain him so that he feels wanted. Two, because if they do trade Geno Smith, they want everyone else to know how much they like him to avoid tipping their hand in the draft?

— I don’t know how anyone’s takeaway from Adam Schefter’s report on Smith’s contract wasn’t ‘the Seahawks are sending a message that they’re open to trading Geno’. As I said at the time, there was no reason for Schefter to quote-tweet himself adding the line on his value to potential suitors unless it was a reality. I think if you’re prepared to read between the lines — the Seahawks are very much open to offers. We’ll see if they get a serious one before March 18th.

— I thought this was interesting too — the flagship radio station, Seattle Sports, had John Schneider on air for a whole segment on the day Schefter reported the news about Smith’s contract. Not a single question was asked about Geno. I can’t believe they just forgot and suspect this was deliberate. If it was a formality that Smith is staying with the team, this would’ve been an excellent opportunity for Schneider to express so on the day the news broke about his contract. The entire subject was dodged. Again, read between the lines.

— I’ve felt since Schneider’s solo press conference that a trade was a distinct possibility. I think the biggest supporters of Geno have been most the vocal in building the case for his talent. Hugh Millen presented a number of counter statistics on KJR, painting a different picture. Not all of the issues are down to Smith, of course. But neither does he deserve to be completely absolved for average output in 2023 (and let’s not forget, he failed to hit a single escalator in his contract). Softy and Millen raised a reasonable point on the show. What if Schneider feels, after two seasons, he’s seen what Smith’s ceiling is and simply wants to try something else? Is that really so incomprehensible? Especially if he believes this is a quarterback class worth tapping into?

— Let’s also not forget that the Seahawks are not in a great cap situation. They’re $9.5m over the cap (effective cap space) this year and only have $22.5m to spend next year. It might not be the greatest 2024 saving to part with Geno ($13.8m) but if they’ve already made the decision to move on, they might as well get something (anything) via a trade than just cut him. It would also clear $33.7m off the books for 2025 — which could be important if you want to extend Leonard Williams or sign other free agents and manager your year-one cap hits.

— If the Seahawks do part with Smith, it wouldn’t be that difficult to set up a draft hedge. Mike Macdonald will be aware of Tyler Huntley from Baltimore while Joshua Dobbs had some relative success in 2023 and Sam Darnold and Tyrod Taylor are also free agents. None of the four will be expensive and could provide a cheap backup for Lock. That could get you into the draft, if the intention is to select a rookie and let them be the lead horse for the starting role. I know names like this might make you shudder but I don’t think enough people are entertaining the possibility that Seattle’s plan is to reset with a new, young QB in 2024 under a new, younger regime without the need for a well paid bridge.

— Trading down fromย #16 to fill out the board on day two feels inevitable. It’s hard to imagine Schneider waiting 62 picks to select in a class with attractive day-two options. Don’t be surprised if the Seahawks manipulate the board to pad out their collection of picks before drafting the quarterback they want.

— I’ve noticed recently that I’m being called a ‘Michael Penix Jr hater’ despite mocking him to the Seahawks in my only two full projections so far. It’s weird because during the season I felt obliged to offer context to the rampant overboard praise he was getting — simply by highlighting the truth that he had a stretch in the season where his performance level dipped. Now, the reverse is true. I feel the need to start talking him up because things have gone the other way and people have gone right off him.

— Here’s the thing with Penix Jr — there are legit reasons to be excited about his potential. His arm talent is exceptional. It isn’t ‘good’ or ‘decent’. It’s exceptional. Do people realise how difficult this throw is?

I could post 15 other throws to make the same point. Possibly more. He is throwing to areas of the field, deep downfield, that most quarterbacks can’t even consider attempting to reach. And he’s doing it with supreme touch at times, as you see above. I’ve watched every game the top quarterbacks in the last three years have played, aside from three of Drake Maye’s and four of J.J. McCarthy’s (I will get to them). Penix Jr makes stunning throws.

So while there are concerns about the short and intermediate passes or the fact he’s not a mad improv creator who will extend a ton of plays and make magic happen — he can be a pocket-passing dynamo. Remember the Ron Wolf mentality — focus on what a player can be. Remember that Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 list a month before the 2017 draft. Remember that 12 years ago Russell Wilson was dismissed as a short quarterback and likely day three pick.

Penix Jr as a player sitting in the pocket and challenging opponents downfield could be thrilling to watch at the next level. He’s also a well respected leader, he elevated the Huskies to new heights, he’s very experienced and he has a fantastic relationship with the new offensive coordinator.

I might’ve been providing balance a few months ago — now it’s time to remind people why he’s a very viable option for the Seahawks.

— I noted the critical third down and scrambling statistics to highlight why J.J. McCarthy could be very appealing to teams. A quick reminder if you missed the graph — Penix Jr ranked second to McCarthy for on target 3rd and 4th down drop-back passes beyond the sticks. He ranked second in the same category when the conversion distance was more than five yards:

He also led the NCAA in PFF grade on play-action, led the NCAA in big time throws and ranked second for big time throws off play action.

The areas where he struggled were completion percentage when scrambling (an awful 23.3%) and completion percentage on third and long. The context for the third and long statistic, of course, was that he attempted a lot more third and long passes than the other quarterbacks. He attempted 60, Drake Maye was the only other QB to throw more than 50 (53).

So the one area where he isn’t good is scrambling. He excels in arm strength, play action, accuracy on 3rd and 4th down and big time throws. I’m not sure the scrambling aspect is enough to put the Seahawks off — or anyone else — and Penix Jr has gone from being overrated after the Texas game (legit pundits suggesting he could be the #2 pick) to suddenly being quite underrated.

— That said, look at Schneider’s quarterback history. Charlie Whitehurst was mobile and could get out of the pocket. Clearly Russell Wilson was exceptional on the move. Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen are two of the best when scrambling. Alex McGough was mobile and Andy Dalton, who Schneider was said to be fond of in 2011, ran for 1611 yards and 22 touchdowns in college. Maybe it’s a big deal after all? What I would say is Penix Jr is a very good athlete — testing well for sprinting speed at the Senior Bowl and I know he can jump a 38 inch vertical after personally visiting the UW facility. Perhaps he can develop into a more effective scrambler? If not, it’s something we need to consider as it pertains to his fit — but the Seahawks just actively sought the Washington offense by hiring Ryan Grubb. They must like aspects of a system that doesn’t feature a lot of scrambling.

— Can we at least acknowledge that if the Seahawks draft Michael Penix Jr he would be uniquely positioned to start quickly given his relationship with Ryan Grubb and the familiarity he’d have with the terminology being used? Again, it feels like many people are letting their personal admiration for Geno Smith (not a bad thing, by the way) influence how they believe the decision makers will act. I’m not saying the Seahawks will definitely draft Penix Jr. I think you can make a compelling case for it though and that it’s plausible they’d be willing to start him quickly, believing they can get immediate value out of a cheap rookie contract (just as they did under Russell Wilson). That would be more useful than ever as they re-set their cap over the next year or two.

Just a few thoughts (and thatโ€™s all weโ€™ve got for a while). Let me know yours in the comments section.

Robbie, Adam and I came together for a live stream earlier โ€”- if you missed it check it out below!

Friday draft notes: J.J. McCarthy, Seattle’s approach at center and why trading down seems likely

February 16, 2024 /

Why J.J. McCarthy could be a high first round pick

McCarthy was an underwhelming watch on tape and it was hard to understand the first round buzz. Things became clearer this week.

Lance Zierlein tweeted about completion percentage among the draft class when scrambling:

This was interesting data but I wanted more information on third downs so went digging in the hope Lance might have the info. A few weeks ago I had a chance to speak with an incredibly well respected personnel man in the NFL and asked him about quarterback scouting. He said he would watch every third down throw a quarterback makes in college, then decide whether he wanted to watch any more. Whether you agree with that approach or not, it showed how much importance some scouts place on the ‘money downs’.

A Vikings fan named Nicholas Miller replied to my request with the following information that he had collated:

So there you go. McCarthy’s first down conversion percentage on third and 7 or longer is an astonishing 55.1%. None of the other big name quarterbacks in the draft can even get their percentage into the 40% range, let alone the 50’s.

Nicholas then shared data he had for ‘on target throws on 3rd and 4th down’:

When throwing past the sticks on 3rd or 4th down with +5 yards to go, Jayden Daniels has the best percentage (68.8%) followed by Bo Nix (65%) and McCarthy (64.7%). The others are some distance behind. However, when you refine the data to dropback passes only, McCarthy is well in front with a 30.1% on target percentage followed by Michael Penix Jr (29.3%) and Caleb Williams (28.9%). Daniels’ percentage is only 23.4% and Nix’s is even lower (19.4%).

When you then consider what Lance shared about production when scrambling, it paints an interesting picture. Being able to escape pressure, extend plays and throw on the run is such an important part of the modern game. McCarthy’s completion percentage on the run (71.4%) is again way beyond what anyone else achieved. Bo Nix is a distant second on 58.6% while Michael Penix Jr is all the way back at 23.3%.

If teams place a lot of emphasis on third downs and being able to create off script, the fact that McCarthy dominates in these two areas is telling. With many teams incorporating analytics and data into their scouting departments, it won’t be a surprise if several draft rooms have McCarthy rated very highly.

I’m not convinced it will carry quite the weight in Seattle. John Schneider seems to like a big arm to be able to drive the ball downfield and make explosive plays. McCarthy ranked 27th in college football last year for ‘big time throws’ (20). He doesn’t have a big arm and there are occasions on tape where his deeper throws fade at the end. He also has a slight frame and needs to add weight/strength.

However, I do think some teams — possibly the Vikings, Broncos, Raiders and Saints — could ensure McCarthy doesn’t even get to #16. It won’t be a surprise if the data here moves him into the top-10, with teams possibly preferring his style over Drake Maye — who was more erratic at North Carolina and didn’t perform as well on scrambles or third downs.

Some other interesting stats

Completion percentage when scrambling and third down conversions aren’t the only thing worth noting, of course. Play action is critical. Here’s how PFF graded the big name quarterbacks on play-action last season:

Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 93.1
Jayden Daniels — 92.7
Drake Maye — 86.4
J.J. McCarthy — 86.3
Bo Nix — 83.4
Spencer Rattler — 81.3
Caleb Williams — 70.8

Here are the number of ‘big time throws’ PFF charted off play-action:

Michael Penix Jr (#2 in the NCAA) — 18
Drake Maye — 7
J.J. McCarthy — 7
Caleb Williams — 6
Jayden Daniels — 5
Bo Nix — 5
Spencer Rattler — 3

This is quite a significant feather in Penix Jr’s cap if you want to run a lot of play-action. He’s clearly very good at it — receiving the highest grades on an individual level while also making almost three times more explosive plays off play-action than any of the other big name quarterbacks. I do think ‘big time throws’ are something the Seahawks will pay attention to, so here’s generally how PFF charted the overall number of BTT’s in 2023:

Michael Penix Jr (led the NCAA) — 43
Drake Maye — 34
Jayden Daniels — 29
Caleb Williams — 27
J.J. McCarthy — 20
Bo Nix — 20
Spencer Rattler — 12

Finally, here are the stats for ‘turnover worthy plays’:

Bo Nix — 5 (led the NCAA)
Jayden Daniels — 7
Drake Maye — 10
Spencer Rattler — 11
J.J. McCarthy — 11
Michael Penix Jr — 12
Caleb Williams — 18

What are the Seahawks looking for at center?

I went back and re-watched Jackson Powers-Johnson this week after a highly regarded Senior Bowl. I thought his time in Mobile was more mixed than originally thought and there are some slight concerns that also show up on tape. He doesn’t fire his hands as quick as you’d like, his frame is quite stocky and his movements initially can be quite stilted. He’s best wrestling and brawling on contact but I’m not sure he gets his angles right at the start of the play consistently enough.

I also started to wonder what type of center the Seahawks might actually want.

Powers-Johnson is 6-3 and 334lbs. Ryan Grubb and Scott Huff had Parker Brailsford at Washington last season and he’s 6-2 and approximately 280lbs. In 2022, Corey Luciano (6-3, 307lbs) started at center for UW. The Seahawks have used Evan Brown (6-2, 302lbs) and Austin Blythe (6-2, 298lbs). In Baltimore, Tyler Linderbaum has started the last two years and he’s 6-2 and 296lbs.

Brown, Blythe, Luciano and Linderbaum all ran excellent short shuttles and you’d expect the same of Brailsford.

Whether it’s John Schneider, Mike Macdonald, Grubb or Huff — they’ve all worked for a team with a center carrying a certain profile.

It does seem like there’s some consistency here to value leverage and agility rather than size. There are players in this class who could fit the profile with the required size/leverage advantages — Zach Frazier or Charles Turner for example. We’d need to see their testing numbers though. I think NC State’s Dylan McMahon is a key name to watch because he is definitely very athletic.

Olu Oluwatimi is also 6-2 and 309lbs so he also fits the leverage approach at the position. Maybe they’ll switch things up this year and go in a different direction but there’s enough evidence to think the Seahawks have a type and it isn’t a big, heavy, powerful center. It’s something to remember during this process.

In terms of defensive linemen, here’s something else to consider from Jeff Simmons:

Why trading down feels very likely for the Seahawks

You obviously need two to tango and any move down from #16 will require a trade partner. However, it’s hard to imagine the Seahawks won’t at least try to trade down in round one.

The meat of this class is going to be day two, stretching into round four. There’s so much value there — and at positions the Seahawks have needs. There are a host of intriguing interior offensive linemen — Zak Zinter and Cooper Beebe look like plug-and-play high-performing guards but there’s serious depth behind them with the likes of Christian Haynes, Jordan Morgan, Brandon Coleman and Dominick Puni. I have Graham Barton, Jackson, Powers-Johnson, Sedrick Van Pran, Charles Turner, Zach Frazier and Dylan McMahon all graded for day two at center.

It’s a good range for defensive tackles too. Tโ€™Vondre Sweat, McKinley Jackson, Tyler Davis, Kris Jenkins, Michael Hall Jr and Braden Fiske should all find a home on day two.

Linebacker, currently, looks like a big need. Day two is where you’ll likely find Payton Wilson, Jeremiah Trotter, Edgerrin Cooper, Cedric Gray, Junior Colson and Curtis Jacobs — while I think Nathaniel Watson is also worth considering in this range but could last into day three.

I’m a huge fan of Malik Mustapha the Wake Forest safety and have given him a second round grade with the expectation he’ll go in round three or four instead. He reminds me of Budda Baker and I don’t think it’s a stretch to make that comparison. Meanwhile, I’ve placed Oregon State’s Kitan Oladapo as my #3 safety with a round three grade after watching him this week. He’d be an ideal complement — big, strong, physical and fast. I also think he could go in the fourth round and present real value.

At pass rusher, Kansas’ Austin Booker is incredibly intriguing early on day three. Receiver is loaded with options if you wanted to add another young player to your group. I watched cornerback T.J. Tampa last night and he’s very interesting with an extremely physical style.

I can’t imagine John Schneider looking at this class and thinking he wants to draft once at #16 then wait 62 picks to select again, missing almost all of the sweet-spot. I think he’s going to want more stock between rounds 2-4.

There are obviously scenarios where you can’t turn down a great opportunity at #16. Chop Robinson is the one to watch I think. His get-off has to be seen to be believed. He has ideal size, great power in his hands and, whisper it quietly, he shares similar traits to Micah Parsons. He has game-wrecking potential and seems to be flying under the radar a bit because his production wasn’t great in college. The talent is very much there, however.

There are others too. Field Yates had Brock Bowers lasting to Seattle’s pick in his mock draft. I think there’s next to no chance of that happening but if it somehow did, you’d have to take him. Jared Verse would be another player you seriously consider ‘sticking and picking’. Some of the offensive tackles are very good in round one (but much will depend on Abe Lucas’ health and how comfortable you are taking a possible guard convert in the middle of round one).

Otherwise, trading down would be very appealing. Perhaps multiple times. Try to get back into round two. See if you can add stock in rounds three and four. This is a class that meshes well with Seattle’s needs — with a ton of Washington and Michigan players scattered throughout (we know the Seahawks have plenty of intel there) and lots of very attractive options with starting potential.

Acquiring extra stock also presents a better opportunity to take a chance on a quarterback. You might not want to do that with only three picks in the first three rounds. If you end up with five instead, you can address several needs then let the quarterback class come to you. If someone provides value who you like, whether that’s a Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr or Spencer Rattler on day two — or maybe a Michael Pratt or Jordan Travis on day three — it makes sense if you’ve built your stock and added other players first.

I know a lot of Seahawks fans grew tired of the team endlessly trading down a few years ago. I don’t think the likes of Robinson, Bowers or Verse will last to #16 — and players like Powers-Johnson and Troy Fautanu, for me at least, would not present good value (especially not compared to the linemen who will be available 20-40 picks later).

If they can find a partner, trading down feels extremely plausible.

The Jake Peetz addition is such a savvy move

It was revealed yesterday that Peetz is leaving the Rams to become Seattle’s passing game coordinator. He was the ‘passing game specialist’ in LA under Sean McVay.

It’s a great hire for two reasons. Firstly, Peetz was highly regarded as a viable offensive coordinator candidate this year and interviewed with the Buccs before they hired Liam Coen, in an attempt to bolster their hopes of retaining Baker Mayfield.

Here’s what Peter King wrote about Peetz before the hiring cycle began:

Jake Peetz, 39, pass-game specialist, L.A. Rams. โ€œHeโ€™ll win every interview,โ€ one peer told me. Former QB coach of the Raiders and Panthers, former offensive analyst for Nick Saban at Alabama, former OC at LSU. Well-respected by Sean McVay in his two years with the Rams. What impressed me is Puka Nacua telling me in October that he learned the Ramsโ€™ offense in long early-morning sessions with Peetz in May and June. Imaginative guy.

Secondly, this feels like the Seahawks wisely planning ahead. Schneider admitted before hiring Mike Macdonald that if they went with a defensive-minded Head Coach, they ran the risk of playing musical chairs at offensive coordinator. Such is the demand for any offensive play-caller who has even a modicum of success (see: Dave Canales).

If Ryan Grubb excels in Seattle he too will be in-demand. I think the hiring of Peetz is an attempt to get ahead of the game. Bring in a highly rated young offensive coach when the offense is being built. He’ll be across everything. Then, if Grubb is hired away by another team, you have your ready made replacement waiting in the wings.

This is what Detroit has with Ben Johnson and Tanner Engstrand. Now the Seahawks have it with Grubb and Peetz. They don’t just benefit from adding a talented coach from the McVay tree, they also have a contingency plan for the future if Grubb gets a top job somewhere else.

Iโ€™ll be on KJR talking about the Seahawks today at 11am, be sure to tune in!

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