Anyone who watched the Las Vegas Bowl would’ve noticed #38 for Boise State. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch forced a fumble sprinting to the left sideline to demolish a WR screen, had a sack blitzing up the middle and recorded three TFL’s and 12 total tackles.
Now he’s turning pro.
It had been believed he would return to Boise State but today he declared for the 2018 draft:
“It has been the honor of my life to play for the team I always grew up following. I would have given anything to have had this opportunity. Because my love for Boise State runs so deep, this was the most difficult decision of my life. I feel now is the best time for me to pursue another childhood dream – playing in the National Football League.”
He was named MWC defensive player of the year for 2017, recording 141 tackles. He’s 6-4 and 240lbs and according to Tony Pauline, is set to be an early round pick:
Scouts believe Vander Esch is the player people are sleeping on at the linebacker position, as many have compared him to former NFL star Brian Urlacher — another Mountain West product. There is a belief Vander Esch could end up sliding into the bottom half of Round 1. As we reported back in November, the Week 11 riser was described by many in the scouting community as a special player at the next level.
I’m told Vander Esch could run as fast as 4.6s in the 40 at the combine and post a vertical jump near 37 inches. On film Vander Esch is everything an NFL team wants in a starting linebacker. He’s tough, instinctive and versatile and can stay on the field for any situation.
Considering how important this draft could be for the Seahawks, the more quality prospects that declare the better. They only have one pick currently in the first three rounds and need one of two things:
1. To draft an impact player in round one
2. Attractive trade down options to make up for the lost picks
Whether Vander Esch is an option for the Seahawks is debatable. He looks like a classic middle linebacker. He appears to have the range to play outside too — but this is one of the positions where the Seahawks have a legit MVP candidate. Tremaine Edmunds is a little different because he can roll down to the EDGE and play some LEO. Vander Esch is more of a Bobby Wagner type linebacker.
Still, he’s a fun player to watch and a nice addition to the 2018 draft class.
This is looking like an increasingly strong class for linebackers. It’ll be interesting to see how the Seahawks view the group. Pete Carroll talked a year ago about adding to the position. They didn’t draft a linebacker and instead brought in veterans on one-year contracts.
Aside from Vander Esch, we’ve talked about Edmunds at Virginia Tech and Roquan Smith at Georgia. Wisconsin’s T.J. Edwards might not tear up the combine but he’s a really active, tough, physical player. Eventually I’ll get around to watching Uchenna Nwosu at USC (word on the street is his stock will depend on his forty) and Texas’ Malik Jefferson.
Today I’ve been watching a bit of Rashaan Evans. He is very intriguing. Take a look:
I’m going to spend the rest of today watching more of Evans.
There’s also a group of defensive lineman and EDGE types I want to delve into (Sam Hubbard, Marcus Davenport, Lorenzo Carter). This is on top of the continued focus on the running back class.
Whoever the Seahawks bring in during the off-season, the modus operandi has to be to regain the physical edge Seattle had from 2011 onwards. They were big, strong and beat opponents up. They haven’t been that team since 2014. That’s the type of player I think we’ll end up focusing on for the defense. A younger defense and improved running game could easily be the off-season plan.
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Three days on, I’ve settled on a conclusion for the 42-7 Rams hammering.
It was a nightmarish day, uncharacteristic of this team under Pete Carroll. It does hint towards some changes that need to happen. It’s also a sign that they can’t rely on some of their ageing stars anymore.
I also thinks it’s worth making a few points. This was a perfect storm for the Rams. They were healthy and hungry, the Seahawks banged up across the board and missing a colossal number of players. Seattle contrived to do everything wrong on all three sides of the ball. Two weeks ago the Seahawks handled the NFC leading Philadelphia Eagles. A few weeks ago a much healthier and in-tune Seahawks team beat the Rams in LA. They forced five turnovers and could’ve (should’ve) won more handsomely than they did.
When the two teams meet next year at Century Link — even while acknowledging the Rams are a greatly improved team — it will be a contest. That’s assuming the Seahawks don’t give LA fantastic starting field position for every possession, lose multiple key starters and lay an egg on all three sides of the ball again.
It was a highly embarrassing loss. Yet not quite as cataclysmic, in my opinion, as we thought during and immediately after the game.
Here is what I believe the Seahawks need to do to get back on track in 2018 — because the playoffs are now highly unlikely this season.
Re-establish Pete Carroll’s vision
Tough defense and a big-time running game. It’s not as difficult as it sounds. They have talent on the D-line, at linebacker and in the secondary. They need more talent to aid the running game.
They will have some cap room. Not tons, but some.
They probably won’t get back to their best immediately. It might take two off-seasons. But it’s achievable.
This is how I would plan to do things right now:
1. Prioritise the free agents
Who do you need moving forward? Who best helps you achieve your desired identity? Sheldon Richardson might be costly but he’s also most likely to help you achieve a tough, physical defense that defends the run very well. We’ll see how they feel about Luke Joeckel but they might think consistency up front is worth more than a further change. Either way — identify who best helps achieve this strict identity and don’t think twice about releasing the players who don’t fit.
2. Be smart in free agency
Bradley McDougald was a good move. In the past they’ve used the veteran market to their advantage. The Chris Clemons trade. The value additions of Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril. They didn’t hit a home run in free agency a year ago but they’ve done it in the past. They’re capable. We know that. If possible, add a blocking tight end and make the moves that will help establish the running game.
3. Target two key areas in the draft
For me, looking at this class, a solid plan would be to draft either the best defensive player in round one or the best running back. Adding a defender who can be part of the next core would be a huge boost for the future and help the defense reload in 2018. There is enough defensive talent in this draft (see below) to feel good about that opportunity. Failing that, add one of the really good running backs to inject talent at that position and finally get someone you trust and want to feature at RB. It’s unfortunate they don’t have their second round pick to be able to aggressively target these two areas. Maybe they can get some picks back?
4. Get the late round magic working again
Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, K.J Wright. Core players added between rounds 4-7. They’ve had a stretch now without a major defensive hit in that range. Time to put that right. Again, we know they can do it.
5. Add talent to the staff and/or front office
In the past they’ve used former GM’s to enhance the front office. That’s not to suggest John Schneider is incapable. Some of the criticism levelled at Schneider is silly. But they’ve had Scot McCloughan and Jeff Ireland on board in the past. Is there someone of that ilk they can bring in to get all hands on deck for this important draft? And are there a couple of established coaches out there willing to come in and add to the staff? I don’t believe firing coordinators is necessarily the answer. I think adding even more knowledge, experience and quality could be. I’d also look at the college ranks to see if there’s anyone to poach. For example — Washington State defensive coordinator Alex Grinch (sorry Coug fans). Sell him the idea of being the next Dan Quinn and make it worth his while in terms of salary. Dan Quinn went from Seattle’s D-line coach to Florida’s defensive coordinator, then in charge of Seattle’s defense before becoming the Head Coach in Atlanta. Add coaching talent.
None of this is reinventing the wheel. It’s not as outrageous as the ‘trade Russell Wilson’ takes (sigh) or suggesting a whole new staff is required.
It’s a recommitment to what made this team work in the past.
Now onto a mock draft with trades, with some Seahawks thoughts at the end…
Note — I didn’t include Sam Darnold. There’s enough talk about him staying at USC to believe that is likely.
#1 Cleveland — Josh Rosen (QB, UCLA)
With accuracy, a great release, the ability to make a range of throws and ideal size — Rosen has every chance to become a very good NFL quarterback.
#2 New York Giants — Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State)
Yes they need to think about the future at quarterback. But how do you turn down the prospect of Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr and Evan Engram on the same offense for the next however many years?
#3 Indianapolis — Bradley Chubb (EDGE, NC State)
Bradley is Nick Chubb’s cousin. Nick had one of the best SPARQ workouts imaginable in 2013 at the Nike combine. Bradley is a 6-4, 275lbs version of Nick. Fantastic player.
#4 Cleveland (via Houston) — Clelin Ferrell (DE, Clemson)
Ferrell can play inside or out and would be a nice compliment for Myles Garrett. The Browns can learn a thing or two from the Jaguars and their fearsome D-line.
#5 Arizona (trade w/49ers) — Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma)
The Cardinals, needing a long term answer at quarterback, trade up to make sure they get their guy. Baker Mayfield belongs in the top five.
#6 New York Jets (trade w/Bears) — Josh Allen (QB, Wyoming)
With the top two quarterbacks off the board the Jets, who reportedly like Allen (per Tony Pauline) make their move and find a willing trade partner in Chicago.
#7 Tampa Bay — Vita Vea (DT, Washington)
The Buccs could go in a number of directions but Vea is a rare talent and would work perfectly next to Gerald McCoy. Vea could be the next Haloti Ngata.
#8 Cincinnati — Quenton Nelson (G, Notre Dame)
Probably the second best player in the draft behind Saquon Barkley. He lasts a little longer due to the rush on quarterbacks. This would be great value and fill a big need.
#9 Denver — Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Alabama)
Very reliable defender with the versatility to be a modern day defensive back. Fitzpatrick will go in the top 10 or 15 picks — whether he goes earlier than this will depend on his workout.
#10 Chicago (trade w/Jets) — Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama)
Ridley is adept at getting open and he’s consistent. He isn’t big but the Bears might settle for a reliable go-to target for Mitchell Trubisky.
#11 San Francisco (trade w/Cardinals) — Courtland Sutton (WR, SMU)
The Niners have their quarterback it seems — now it’s time to make his life easier with some weapons. Sutton can do it all, has great character and looks like an early pick.
#12 Oakland — Tremaine Edmunds (LB, Virginia Tech)
Wow — what a talent. He can play inside or outside linebacker, drop down and play the edge. He is going to go early — and Tony Pauline thinks he’ll run in the 4.5’s and jump a 40 inch vertical. Tough, physical, great closing speed. Brilliant.
#13 Washington — Roquan Smith (LB, Georgia)
Might be a bit small for some teams but he absolutely flies around the field and he’s been the standout player on Georgia’s SEC Championship defense.
#14 Miami — Billy Price (C, Ohio State)
We’ve talked a lot about Price and Quenton Nelson. There’s not much between the two. They are exceptional prospects. Urban Meyes loves Price and he coached the Pouncey’s.
#15 Los Angeles Chargers — Orlando Brown (T, Oklahoma)
Huge tackle with NFL bloodlines. Likely a right tackle but that would suit the Chargers. He can bookend Russell Okung. Considered by many to be the best of a bad bunch at tackle in 2018.
#16 Green Bay — Tim Settle (DT, Virginia Tech)
At times he looks like Warren Sapp. Huge size but moves so well. A rare player with the size to defend the run and the quickness to be a pass rusher.
#17 Baltimore — Mike McGlinchey (T, Notre Dame)
Had a really good performance against Harold Landry of Boston College. Worked well with Quenton Nelson. Would make a nice right tackle in Baltimore, working across from former Notre Dame team mate Ronnie Stanley.
#18 Detroit — Christian Wilkins (DT, Clemson)
The Lions could’ve had Ndamukong Suh and Aaron Donald playing next to each other. Instead they drafted Eric Ebron and fudged Suh’s contract. They need an interior playmaker.
#19 New Orleans (trade w/Seahawks) — Drew Lock (QB, Missouri)
Drew Brees is out of contract and while he probably stays in New Orleans, the Saints need to think about the future. They move above Buffalo here to get rising prospect Drew Lock.
#20 Dallas — Derwin James (S, Florida State)
More Eric Reid than Eric Berry and that’s why he might last. Looks the part and is physical but lacks the great range and athleticism to go earlier.
#21 Tennessee — T.J. Edwards (LB, Wisconsin)
Edwards’ combine will severely impact his stock but he’s shone for Wisconsin and could easily sneak into the back end of round one.
#22 Buffalo — Damien Harris (RB, Alabama)
Underrated, complete running back who is a much better athlete and playmaker than people realise. Great in pass-pro, electric at the second level and tough. He will be good. Might not declare though.
#23 Atlanta — Taven Bryan (DT, Florida)
Big Taven Bryan fan here. Not the finished product but the Gators struggled so much it was never going to happen in 2017. Expect a great combine performance. He will move up boards.
#24 Seattle (trade w/Saints) — Ronald Jones II (RB, USC)
The Seahawks trade down with the Saints to get back some of their draft stock and take a player who looks so much like Jamaal Charles and can rejuvenate their running game.
#25 Buffalo (via Kansas City) — Maurice Hurst (DT, Michigan)
Had a really strong season in a middling Michigan defense. The Bills could do with re-stocking their defensive line after dealing Marcell Dareus.
#26 Jacksonville — Arden Key (EDGE, LSU)
Off field mystery and a couple of injuries will lead to some concern about Key and he could drop out of round one. That said — he is very talented and a good team could take a chance on his talent paying off.
#27 Los Angeles Rams — Austin Bryant (EDGE, Clemson)
One of a number of star performers for Clemson this year. Is probably helped by the loaded interior D-line he plays next to but Bryant has had a really strong 2017 season with 14.5 TFL’s.
#28 Carolina — Ronnie Harrison (S, Alabama)
Physical, tone-setting safety who hits with a bang. His tackle injured Kerryon Johnson and changed the face of the SEC Championship game.
#29 Pittsburgh — Denzel Ward (CB, Ohio State)
This is not a good draft for cornerbacks — a complete reverse of a year ago. Denzel Ward has shown enough to think he might be the best and it’s likely one of the CB’s will go in the first round.
#30 Minnesota — D.J. Moore (WR, Maryland)
A playmaker with great toughness, capable of making grabs downfield, exploiting screens and breaking tackles. Shifty. Combine will determine how early he goes.
#31 New England — Rashaan Evans (LB, Alabama)
I watched him after Tremaine Edmunds and intend to watch more. Evans has the potential to go in the first round but his combine will be important.
#32 Philadelphia — Bryce Love (RB, Stanford)
I prefer Kerryon Johnson but there’s two reasons why I went with Love here. Firstly, no injuries. Secondly, he looks like a Philly back and would compliment Jay Ajayi.
Not included:
Kerryon Johnson (RB, Auburn)
May suffer due to the injuries he’s had but would provide value in round two along with the other running backs still available (eg Royce Freeman).
Connor Williams (T, Texas)
There’s increasing buzz that Williams isn’t as highly regarded by teams as he is in the media. There’s always a demand for offensive tackles, however.
Thoughts on the Seahawks
In the plan earlier in the piece, we discussed targeting the best defensive player available or the best running back.
In this mock scenario (it’s still very early) a lot of the top defensive talent is off the board at Seattle’s pick (#19). Tremaine Edmunds is gone for example. There were alternatives but the likelihood of a trade down is relatively high considering Seattle doesn’t own a second or third round pick.
They deal with the Saints who might be looking to target a quarterback of the future to develop. Using this updated trade chart, the Seahawks could net a third rounder. The thing that makes the trade unlikely is the Saints are already without their second round pick (dealt to get Alvin Kamara in the 2017 draft). However, they might be more inclined to be aggressive given their successful season so far.
With the #24 pick they take Ronald Jones II, who we talked about in more detail here. He isn’t like a lot of the running backs they’ve drafted previously but he’s immensely talented and looks a lot like Jamaal Charles. The Seahawks probably need someone they crave to feature at running back. It kept them on track in the Marshawn Lynch days. Jones II is the type of player you can’t keep out of the game.
There’s a lot of debate about whether it’s the running backs or the O-line preventing Seattle from running the ball. It’s probably a bit of both — but here’s the reality of the situation. Chris Carson averaged 4.2 yards per carry before his injury. Mike Davis averages 3.9 (he was above 4.0 before the Rams game). J.D. McKissic is on 4.2 YPC.
Thomas Rawls and Eddie Lacy are both at 2.6 YPC.
Now let’s compare Carson, Davis and McKissic to some of the top performing running backs in the NFL:
Le’Veon Bell — 4.0 YPC
LeSean McCoy — 4.1 YPC
Todd Gurley — 4.6 YPC
Leonard Fournette — 4.0 YPC
Melvin Gordon — 3.8 YPC
If it was true that Seattle’s offensive line was completely inept at run blocking we wouldn’t be seeing Carson, Davis and McKissic recording a similar YPC to the names listed above.
Talent at running back is an issue. When Carson got hurt they simply couldn’t rely on Rawls and Lacy and thus didn’t feel like they could properly commit to the run. They’ve been able to do that more with Davis.
If they have talent at running back — it stands to reason they will feel confident featuring the running game as much as they desire. Carson could still be the guy for the long term. Adding another RB, especially with the talent in this draft, would provide insurance and truly help the Seahawks’ attempt to regain their preferred identity.
Going back to the mock, they could trade down again and still get a good back. That’s the beauty of this class. They can move around and still address certain issues. There are some good offensive linemen slated to go in rounds two and three (Braden Smith, Will Hernandez, Frank Ragnow, Isaiah Wynn, Coleman Shelton). If they drop into round two the likes of Damien Harris, Ronald Jones II, Kerryon Johnson and Royce Freeman could be available. There will be defensive options. They might be able to gather a nice haul and address their needs.
So it’s not all doom and gloom.
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Yesterday I sat down to watch Tremaine Edmunds for the first time. He’s a terrific prospect, one of the best I’ve watched so far.
He is destined for the first round. Possibly top-15.
Sometimes you just put on the video and a player ‘wows’ you. I’d previously focused on Tim Settle when watching Virginia Tech — but Edmunds is just as impressive.
He can play inside and outside linebacker — plus he has the length and size (6-5, 236lbs) to play some LEO. He attacks the LOS making numerous plays in the backfield (32.5 TFL’s and 10 sacks in 2016 & 2017). His pursuit is unreal, with ideal closing speed.
Look at how he handles this coverage, allowing the play to develop before the read/react to make the stop:
His ability to read plays, stay clean, knife through traffic and make the play is almost as good as his closing burst:
Jordan Whitehead tries to sneak into the game as a ball carrier, but Tremaine Edmunds was having none of that. Hell of a 3rd down play. pic.twitter.com/BJ6y4NSQJ6
Here’s the evidence he can play at the LOS and act as a LEO on passing downs:
You'll be seeing a lot of Tremaine Edmunds as well in this thread. Times the snap perfectly and bends under and around the TE with ease. pic.twitter.com/RF6vuNDO9P
It’s very hard to identify holes in his game. He plays coverage well, he’s mobile, he has the size and the ability to play any linebacker position. His run defense is one of his best assets — he’s so tough and physical but he’s no slouch in coverage.
Is he a great athlete? According to Tony Pauline he’s expected to run in the 4.5’s and push 40-inches in the vertical. That’ll do.
To me he’s the type of player that could come in and offer genuine star talent to the defense. He’d compliment Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. He can fill in inside if needs be. He can offer some third down pass rush. It’d be a move towards further making the front seven the heart of the defense, as they appear to be transitioning from the LOB being the soul.
If the Seahawks want to play great defense and do it Pete’s way — they need better young players coming in. Guys they can count on to launch a new run.
Edmunds looks capable of doing that.
With the Seahawks sadly drifting towards missing the playoffs, this is the type of player who could appear on their radar. That wouldn’t have been possible during the post-season runs.
That’s the positive slant.
Edmunds isn’t just talented on the field after. He seems likeable in interviews and will likely impress teams if he declares.
Star quality.
I also wanted to put this up today. It’s some audio on the draft class overall. Have a listen — there’s some useful information on how the NFL scouts are viewing the class. I’d also be interested in your feedback. I don’t plan on future podcasts just being me talking on and on (we will have guests!) but I wanted to get this out there. If this is too long, too much of one voice or difficult to follow, I’d like to know what you think…
It’s something the front office has refrained from referring to as a rebuild, instead preferring the word transition. Yet given the Seahawks’ salary-cap situation (the team is currently pressed up against the spending limit) and the wear and tear on so many of their defensive stalwarts, big changes could indeed be coming, including a death blow to the Legion of Boom.
Most of the expected turnover is on the defensive side of the ball, with one notable exception: Former Pro Bowl tight end Jimmy Graham, acquired in a trade before the 2015 season, will be a free agent this March and would likely be re-signed only if he takes a significant cut from his current $10 million annual salary.
Of the four Pro Bowl defenders who missed Sunday’s game, only outside linebacker K.J. Wright is likely to return in 2018. Safety Kam Chancellor’s season-ending neck injury, suffered last month, could be career-threatening; if he does try to keep playing, it likely wouldn’t be in Seattle. Chancellor, who signed a three-year, $36-million contract extension in August, could save the Seahawks significant cap dollars if he decides to retire, rather than force his likely release.
Fellow Legion of Boom stalwart Sherman, who tore his Achilles tendon in November, will be 30 next spring and is due to make $11 million (with a $13.2-million salary-cap number). The Seahawks shopped him in trades a year ago and are expected to move forward without him in 2018.
Avril, who turns 32 in April, suffered a season-ending neck and spinal injury in early October which may end his career; either way, his time in Seattle is probably done. Improbable as it sounds, it’s possible the Seahawks would also move on from another accomplished defensive end: 32-year-old Michael Bennett, a versatile player who signed a three-year, $31.5-million contract extension last Dec. 30.
The piece is semi-speculative. It’s suggested Bennett could move on rather than asserted he will. Avril’s Seahawks career is described as ‘probably done’ not simply ‘done’.
Yet Silver writes with greater certainty about the future of Chancellor (“if he does try to keep playing, it likely wouldn’t be in Seattle”) and Sherman (“expected to move forward without him in 2018”). The first sentence above refers directly to the language Seattle is using to refer to future changes (‘transition’ not rebuild).
With the season playing out the way it has, change feels inevitable. The extent of the change is yet to be determined.
Trading or cutting Bennett, for example, wouldn’t create much 2018 relief. The benefit in 2019 and 2020 would be substantial however. His 2018 cap hit is $8.237m with $5.212m in dead money. The question to ask is — are the Seahawks better off moving Bennett for the sake of a minimal cap boost and to accelerate change? Even in a year where he turns 33, it’ll be very difficult to find a player as talented as Bennett for $8m or less.
Chancellor is a similar case. If he does choose to play on with his future lying elsewhere, as suggested by Silver, his $9.8m cap hit is offset by $7.5m in dead money.
Sherman provides the biggest boost but is arguably the toughest of the three to replace. Even as he approaches 30, he’s played at a high level. His game has never been about extreme speed and Sherman stands to age better than other cornerbacks as a consequence. He may prefer a media career — but Sherman could easily play into his 30’s and possibly even move to safety one day. He’s good enough.
Cutting or trading Sherman saves $11m in 2018.
The Seahawks will have approximately $25-30m to spend without any of these moves if Avril indeed does depart or retire and they cut Jeremy Lane. Moving on from Sherman, Bennett and Chancellor in 2018 could create around another $16m.
That might sound appealing to some. However, consider that they might also need to replace the likes of Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson, Sheldon Richardson, Bradley McDougald, Luke Willson and several others. The Seahawks carried a lot of players on one year contracts this season. They wouldn’t just need to replace the big names. They’d need to fill out the roster too.
That won’t be easy in a year where they won’t have a lot of draft stock. They’re not due a bevvy of comp picks in 2018 and they’ve already traded away their second and third rounders. They’ll likely consider trading down in round one to accumulate further stock (they’re currently slated to pick at #19) but they also need to hit on some draft picks and might benefit from picking a bit earlier.
Silver also discusses the future of Jimmy Graham (“would likely be re-signed only if he takes a significant cut from his current $10 million annual salary”) and wonders about the future of Pete Carroll:
“…it’s at least plausible that Seattle could remain competitive as the roster is retooled.
However, it will be a significant challenge, and it begs a legitimate question: Will Carroll, 66 and blessed with a bulging bank account, be motivated to preside over such an ambitious home-improvement project?”
It’s a question that is unavoidable, unfortunately, after Sunday’s game. It’s highly possible the Rams shellacking was an ugly one-off. A perfect storm for Los Angeles — an injury-hit Seahawks roster capitulating early and failing to recover. Yet it was a performance and result so foreign to the Carroll Seahawks, you can’t help but wonder what it means for the future. This era hasn’t just been about winning. It’s the way Seattle has competed.
None of the qualities Carroll brought to this team were present on Sunday and they couldn’t be further from his preferred style of play in 2017 (run the ball on offense, aggressive and opportunistic defense, control the ball, dominate turnover battle).
Did we just witness the end of an era? Or was it just final confirmation that a re-tooling of personnel is required?
If Carroll did move on, it’s difficult to imagine who would come in. A year ago someone like Kyle Shanahan would’ve been a strong candidate. A young, offensive minded coach who could build around a more Russell Wilson-centric team. Shanahan’s offense helped Matt Ryan become league MVP and Atlanta put up big numbers in 2016 on the way to the Super Bowl. Now he has a proper quarterback, Shanahan is 3-0 in his last three games at San Francisco.
This year the options appear much more limited. There’s no hot-shot coordinator that stands out unless you want to run through the usual suspects like Josh McDaniels (an ill-fit you’d imagine given he’d probably want to bring in his own GM). There isn’t another big name college coach with a history of culture building and a NFL background.
Carroll retiring, when it comes, would be such a significant move and the timing would be everything. You’d want to transition to a coach who you believe can win Championships and create the next winning culture of this team. You don’t want to settle on the best available option in a year where the alternatives don’t appear to be that attractive.
So basically, be careful what you wish for.
(See: Jim Mora, 2009)
It sums up where we’re at with the Seahawks currently that we’re even having this conversation. There’s so much uncertainty. Players that became synonymous with Seattle sports, soon potentially moving on. A great coach, possibly nearing the end.
Maybe a few tweaks, a good draft and they’ll be back at it in 2018?
Or perhaps they win in Dallas and get people dreaming again?
Who knows what happens next?
Above all else, remember one thing. This Tweet sums it up:
I've said it once, I'll say it again: the past 5-6 years was probably the best stretch of football we'll witness in our lifetimes of our home team. Whatever happens to this #seahawks team/roster/coaches, I'm so very grateful for and proud of the @seahawks.
A quick final note for now. Thanks to your contributions via Patreon I have been able to purchase a subscription to Bob McGinn’s draft coverage. For those of you who’ve followed the blog for a while, you’ll be aware of McGinn’s sources providing a detailed inside look at how scouts view the class. McGinn published his first 2018 draft piece over the weekend. Considering it’s behind a paywall, I won’t be copying and pasting quotes on here (too much respect for the source). I will be sharing some of the info though, possibly via audio (podcast) or a written piece. Stay tuned. Hopefully this will help take your mind off the game yesterday.
And if you want to contribute via Patreon, here’s the link via the tab below…
The most important game of the season with the playoffs on the line.
Final score: Seahawks 7-42 Rams
Merry Christmas.
Todd Gurley running in a 57-yard touchdown with seconds left in the first half, on 3rd and 20, shockingly wasn’t the tipping point.
That came long before the Rams climbed to a 34-0 half time lead.
Bad special teams, Russell Wilson’s -23 yard backwards pass, yet another horrendous start, turnovers, no resistance on defense.
The Seahawks embarrassed in their own backyard.
42-7. In Seattle. At Century Link.
Before we continue, let’s qualify one thing. The injuries, while not an excuse, are a cause. Bobby Wagner was on the field but nowhere near 100%. No Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, K.J. Wright, Cliff Avril. And the rest.
The Seahawks are decimated, clinging to a post-season opportunity thanks to Russell Wilson and a relatively easy schedule.
Now that’s out of the way — let’s get real. Because there’s losing and there’s being embarrassed in your own stadium. A meek surrender of the NFC West, of the season.
Where was the famous grit? The legendary fight and spirit this team has so often showed? Where was the pride, allowing the Rams to come to Seattle and deliver a shellacking?
Why were the Seahawks seemingly so ill-prepared for the biggest game of the year?
Why are they so incapable of getting out of their own way?
What happens now?
Playoffs? Even if the Seahawks win their next two games, which feels like a major stretch, it might not be enough.
The Seahawks gambled on aggressive trades in an attempt to make this a Championship season. Now it feels like their worst since 2009. At least in 2010 and 2011 it was the beginning of the rebuild — with a few memorable moments building towards Seattle’s first Super Bowl win. Young stars were emerging. Momentum growing.
Now it’s starting to feel like the reverse is happening.
If they don’t make the playoffs, which feels likely, they’ll face an off-season with so many question marks. They’ve already spent their second and third round picks in 2018 and their second rounder in 2019.
The scope to overhaul the team in the draft is severely limited as a consequence.
They don’t have the cap room to make major changes in free agency. Several key players may or may not retire. Even if they return, can you rely on ageing players to stay healthy?
What does the future hold for the Seahawks? Good luck answering that one. Nothing it seems should be off the table for discussion after this.
At the very least, big questions have to be asked about how this season has played out and the direction the team is heading.
To think we spent the last few weeks looking at running backs, believing Seattle’s biggest problem is a non-existent running game.
Things are a bit more serious than that, it seems.
This is one game and things can change quickly in seven days. The Seahawks are fortunate they have two weeks to try and make up for this.
Yet it’s the way this played out that’ll have so many people asking previously unthinkable questions this week. The Seahawks don’t lose like this. Not at home. Not in the Pete Carroll era.
At least until today.
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USC’s Ronald Jones II isn’t like the four names above. This was the first time I’d had a chance to properly study him and it’s impossible not to be extremely impressed. I wouldn’t argue with anyone who believed he was the second best eligible running back (behind Saquon Barkley).
There’s something to consider before we look at why he’s an exciting prospect. He’s listed at 6-0 and 200lbs. That would be a move away from Seattle’s preferred physical profile.
Here are the running backs they’ve drafted since 2012:
Robert Turbin — 5-10, 222lbs
Spencer Ware — 5-10, 228lbs
Christine Michael — 5-10, 220lbs
C.J. Prosise — 6-0, 220lbs
Alex Collins — 5-10, 217lbs
Chris Carson — 6-0, 218lbs
This doesn’t exclude Jones from being an option for the Seahawks but it is something to consider. Taking him would be a departure from their recent drafting style.
You might argue that this preferred physical profile hasn’t brought about good results recently. Let’s not forget though that Seattle’s ‘preferred profile’ also includes Marshawn Lynch, Alex Collins is currently having a great time in Baltimore, Chris Carson looked really good before his injury, Spencer Ware has had success in Kansas City and none of Christine Michael’s issues were due to physical build or athleticism.
“He reminded me of Jamaal Charles of the Kansas City Chiefs. That type of skill set. Just a guy who runs and it’s easy for him. It doesn’t look like he’s working hard and he’s running by everyone.”
Pro-comparisons are often lazy and serve only to create false expectations. With Jones, the comparison feels reasonable. And that’s why I wouldn’t rule out interest from the Seahawks even if he is a different body type. Who wouldn’t want someone like Charles?
We’ll see how accurate the comparison is by the combine. They look similar on tape but Charles ran an excellent 4.38 at the combine. I haven’t been able to find any workout information from the Nike combines but Jones reportedly clocked a 4.41 during recruiting. That’s the kind of time he needs. In terms of explosive qualities, Charles managed a 30.5 inch vertical and a 10-2 broad. He also had a 4.22 short shuttle. Those are the types of marks Jones needs to hit.
Let’s look at what he’s about.
Often a player with great speed isn’t a tough runner up the middle. That’s not the case here. Jones has tough runs dragging tacklers for extra yardage while keeping his legs moving. He might prove to be a little slower at the combine than Charles but he might be a more explosive tester.
That’s a 200lbs running back pushing the pile there, getting the absolute maximum out of that run. That’s not a weak defensive line he’s facing either. It’s Stanford.
He’s also capable of breaking tackles and fighting for extra yardage in the open field:
Ronald Jones II with this filthy "GET OFF ME" run to move to sixth on #USC's all-time rushing list, passing Mike Garrett. pic.twitter.com/a3OWFMsqhn
The defender he throws off there is a linebacker playing up at the LOS. He turned a relatively routine first down conversion into a big 25-yard gain. Pure physicality, explosive power. Exciting.
Toughness and physicality isn’t just about running through tackles either. Damien Harris at Alabama is a highly competitive pass blocker. There’s some evidence that Jones is equally willing to put a hit on a pass rusher and protect the quarterback:
I love Ronald Jones. Watch him pass protect on this play. Elite outside zone runner and improved pass blocker. pic.twitter.com/7UdKg6rUnw
Pause the video after a single second and look at the screenshot. Jones is staring at a wall of bodies and the run appears destined to be stuffed. He somehow squirts through the scrum and with one cut takes out three defenders who overcommit to the left side. It’s such a sharp, sudden, nasty cut. Once he reaches the second level it’s over. He sprints away, untouched, for a huge touchdown.
It’s the perfect example of his ability to get skinny and find a running lane, show some physicality to fight through the initial pile and then explode thanks to one perfectly executed cut.
Clearly he isn’t ‘just’ a sprinter. He is extremely smooth and sudden as a runner though. He makes it look so effortless:
He bounces this run to the outside, sprints in-between a couple of defenders and takes it in for a big touchdown. Jones barely breaks stride, he just glides. This is why the Jamaal Charles comparisons carry some weight. Can’t you just imagine peak Jamaal making a play like that?
Here’s another example. This video reminds me a little bit of one of Adoree’ Jackson’s returns for USC. There’s virtually no room by the right sideline and somehow he cuts his way into space and finds a lane. It’s an incredible play that demands so much body control, speed and acceleration. The balance he shows to set up the blocks and max out such a tiny portion of space to make this long touchdown is incredible:
It’s like he’s on ski’s — slaloming through traffic while remaining perfectly balanced and in control. When he sees the opportunity to get upfield he turns on the jets and just accelerates away from the defense. His ability to cut away from trouble and then go from 0-60 in a flash is highly impressive.
He’s not going to punish a team with up-the-middle running, wearing down an opponent and forcing them into fourth quarter submission. That’s not what you draft him to be. He’ll infuriate opponents in a different way — his ability to turn relatively mundane plays into huge gains. He’s able to find the edge and suddenly explode to a big gain. He sets up downfield blocks like a returner and he’s a really difficult out when he gets to the second level despite being only 200lbs.
If he declares for the draft, Jones is going to be in the conversation to be the second running back drafted. He’s a major talent, with an attitude and personality that just fits the position. He appears tough, both in the way he carries himself and the way he performs on the field.
There’s an X-factor about his game that is exciting.
For the year he had 1486 yards at 6.1 YPC. He had 19 total touchdowns.
It’ll be hard to separate the likes of Jones, Damien Harris and Kerryon Johnson if they all turn pro. They’re all very different runners with appealing traits.
Consider this as well. If Jones’ best comparison is Jamaal Charles — well Charles lasted until round three. Kerryon Johnson’s patience in the backfield is reminiscent of Le’Veon Bell (although there’s a big difference in size). Bell was a round two pick. How many Alabama running backs have lasted into round two over the years? Derrick Henry, T.J. Yeldon, Eddie Lacy. Kenyon Drake was a third rounder.
This looks a great year to consider spending a high pick on a running back. The Seahawks might have the luxury of being able to trade down before making it happen.
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This week Todd McShay published his first mock draft with the Seahawks selecting LSU running back Derrius Guice. We addressed the pick here.
I wanted to offer a few more thoughts on Guice today.
There’s no doubting he’s a tough, physical runner. He’s well sized at a listed 5-11 and 212lbs and that’s more or less in Seattle’s ballpark for profile.
There are two really good qualities about his game. Firstly, he’s tough to bring down. He’ll collide into defenders, bounce away from the initial contact and get extra yardage. He’s not an easy get if he can find a crease to the second level:
In case you were wondering what an injured Derrius Guice looks like .. imagine when he's back to 100% healthy 😳💀 pic.twitter.com/HJcx6OTOF1
So while he’s not necessarily a big, physical tone-setter — defenders are going to need to bring it to get him on the turf.
His second best quality is he’s quite adept at hitting the line with authority. He’s not going to be the fastest tester at the combine — but he generally gets up to speed quickly and he’s assertive in his decision making. He scampers rather than sprints but it enables him to chew up ground:
He’s not lightning quick but those short strides enable him to cover a lot of yards. He doesn’t run away from many defenders and there are plenty of examples where he gets caught from behind. Yet that initial burst and decisiveness at the line make up for a lack of pure speed.
So here’s what I think he is — a tough as nails running back who won’t quit and has enough initial quickness to take advantage of good blocking. He will effectively take what is available more often than not and leave everything on the field.
It’s also worth noting, however, that he is quite limited physically.
Speed isn’t everything for a running back. Explosive traits can make up for a lack of pure straight-line speed. Unfortunately for Guice he seems to be lacking in both areas. His game is going to be more about tough physical running than it is about great athleticism. There’s a danger, however, that at the next level he’ll struggle to stand out against a higher level of athletic competition.
Let’s compare Guice to some of his peers.
Here’s his workout from the SPARQ combine:
Height: 5’11”
Weight: 216
40: 4.61
Short Shuttle: 4.66
Vertical Leap: 30.4″
Power Throw: 35.0″
SPARQ: 83.37
This is a particularly pedestrian workout compared to some of the other running backs in this class. For example, here’s how Damien Harris performed:
Again, workouts aren’t everything. Guice’s mentality and physicality will cover some of the physical flaws. Yet Harris is quicker and more explosive per his testing results and you do see evidence of that on tape (for more on Harris check out this piece from a few weeks ago).
Harris is also just as tough and physical as Guice, he’s just as difficult to bring down:
Damien Harris had some big runs yesterday vs Miss State but he does a lot of dirty work too. Best pass protector on the team and it isn’t close… #RollTide
Freeman was 10lbs heavier than Guice at the SPARQ combine but ran a slightly quicker forty time. He was far superior to Guice in the short shuttle and he had a more explosive vertical jump.
A lot of people enjoyed comparing the brilliant Leonard Fournette with Guice last year, after Guice successfully spelled the now Jacksonville Jaguar. Fournette at his SPARQ combine didn’t do all of the tests (and therefore didn’t receive an overall score) but it’s worth noting how much quicker he was in the short shuttle (4.3 vs 4.66) despite being exactly 10lbs heavier. At the NFL combine Fournette ran a 4.51 — 0.10 seconds quicker than Guice’s SPARQ test.
Dalvin Cook managed a 110.64 SPARQ score at his workout. It wasn’t a brilliant performance given his size (5-11, 196lbs) but it’s still considerably higher than Guice’s 83.37.
I’ll say it again because I want this message to be clear. SPARQ isn’t everything. Explosive testing isn’t everything. However, the Seahawks have a pretty consistent track record in drafting explosive testers at running back (the history of which is detailed in my Damien Harris piece).
I can imagine the Seahawks appreciating and liking Guice’s running style and his vibrant personality. Yet one of the objective’s of this blog is to try and discuss trends and use the information we have to judge how likely a player is to end up a Seahawk. We won’t get everything right. It seems, however, that Guice will likely need a better workout at the NFL combine if he’s going to be a first round pick by Seattle.
It’s a competitive group of running backs. Little things like a great physical profile and durability will end up being a difference maker in the final rankings.
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McShay picks Derrius Guice (RB, LSU) for the Seahawks:
Seattle has seemingly had a revolving door at RB and needs some stability at the position to take pressure off Russell Wilson. Guice definitely isn’t Leonard Fournette, but he has great quickness and the ability to break tackles. He dealt with some nagging injuries but has been a workhorse for LSU down the stretch, averaging 22 carries and 132 yards per game in his past six. Offensive line is also an option here for the Seahawks.
Having picked a running back for Seattle in round one of my own mock (Alabama’s Damien Harris) I think McShay focused on a likely target position. With only one pick currently in the first three rounds, the Seahawks need to address a key need. They need a runner they can trust and feature. This is potentially a good year for running backs, so taking a couple seems like a good idea.
I’m less convinced by McShay’s alternative option — the offensive line. In the last year and a half the Seahawks have spent a first round pick on Germain Ifedi, a second round pick on Ethan Pocic and they traded second and third round picks to Houston for Duane Brown. On top of that they paid Justin Britt a handsome new salary.
Eventually they have to look at other areas of the team. The blocking has vastly improved since Brown’s arrival and steady progress is being made.
There is one intriguing O-line option in McShay’s mock. Ohio State’s Billy Price is still on the board. I have him down as a top-20 pick personally but if he was available at this stage you might have to consider taking him based on pure value. Price looks like a home run option for the next level.
Assuming he’s gone, they probably need to look elsewhere.
Back to the pick of Guice. I think there’s a chance his stock will drift a bit when draft season arrives. He’s a big name but might settle into a solid second or third round range. There are some question marks about how well he’ll test at the combine, he’s had some nagging injuries too. He’s a talent but hasn’t had the kind of 2017 season expected after his great relief work for the injured Leonard Fournette last year.
As the process plays out I’d expect the likes of Damien Harris and Auburn’s Kerryon Johnson to jump above Guice in the national conversation. I think there’s a chance Guice settles into a tier with Royce Freeman.
In terms of the other options available, McShay notably has Courtland Sutton going at #27 to Jacksonville. Sutton hasn’t had the kind of year he or SMU were hoping for when he chose not to declare a year ago. He has, however, got a significant amount of talent.
He’s a little bit different to the receivers currently on Seattle’s roster. He’s listed at 6-4 and 215lbs and has the ability to make incredible grabs:
For a bigger receiver he’s also very good running after the catch. He’s an all-rounder, working in the short and long range passing game and providing a nice catching radius. There’s a lot to like.
Here’s some clips from one of his better 2017 performances:
If the Seahawks are transitioning to a more Russell Wilson-centric offense, Sutton would provide a dynamic bigger target. That could be important if Jimmy Graham leaves.
Something to consider.
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During the financial portion of the @NFL league meetings, teams were given a 2018 salary cap projection of $174.2-178.1M, source says. It was $167M last year. The final number comes in the spring.
This is good news for the Seahawks. They were projected to have around $8-9m in cap space in 2018 before this update. If the cap goes up by as much as $10m and they create room elsewhere (they’d gain an extra $12.5m if they cut Jeremy Lane and Cliff Avril retires) then they could have over $30m available.
We’ve talked a lot recently about some of they key future free agents on the roster. Here are some of the pro’s and con’s for re-signing each:
Jimmy Graham
The argument for…
For years the Seahawks were not a good redzone team, even when they had peak Marshawn Lynch. In 2017 they’ve been pretty automatic, thanks largely to the chemistry between Russell Wilson and Jimmy Graham.
Having finally worked it out with Graham to the tune of nine touchdowns (so far), it’d be quite something to move on and lose what has finally clicked. Redzone touchdowns are not to be sniffed at, especially with Seattle giving up more points defensively these days. They can’t keep things tight and win in the fourth quarter with defense and the run like they used to. Seven instead of three is important.
It’s also not as simple as just giving Graham’s targets to somebody else. There’s a reason the likes of Luke Willson, Zach Miller and Anthony McCoy didn’t rack up TD’s in previous seasons. Graham is a special player when it comes to operating in the end zone, with a unique frame and catching radius. It won’t be easy to simply move his scoring streak to somebody else.
As Graham has become so effective in the redzone it’s become increasingly difficult for teams to avoid focusing on him. That in turn can lead to opportunities for other receivers. For the first time in a long time the redzone doesn’t feel like a problem for Seattle — an incredible feat given how inept they’ve been rushing the ball.
Graham is also very close to Russell Wilson. If this is increasingly Wilson’s team, it would be interesting if they allowed his BFF and favourite redzone target to walk away.
The argument against…
Graham looks less effective these days when Seattle isn’t in the redzone. Although he’s been prolific as a touchdown scorer, between the 20’s he hasn’t been much of a factor. For the year he only has 473 yards — just over 36 per game. His career per-catch average is 12.3 yards. In 2017 he’s managing just 9.1.
Is he still the great athlete we once knew? He’ll turn 32 during the 2018 season. It has to be expected that he’s going to lose some speed. While he’s still clearly a difference maker in certain situations, he might never be pushing 1000 yards again. How much you want to commit to a 31-year-old tight end is a conversation they’ll likely have. Although Graham does seem to have a bit of a timeless quality in terms of his ability to box-out and make plays in the redzone.
There have been games where Graham has looked strikingly poor, such as the recent loss in Jacksonville. He had a bad drop on Seattle’s final, crucial drive. He received criticism from Pete Carroll for Wilson’s second interception. His body language was poor and without the redzone opportunities he was a non-factor.
Graham is very good at the things he does well. Arguably he hasn’t done enough to improve in other areas and fit into what this team wants from a star TE. Pete Carroll talked frequently in the past about how he could become the complete tight end. Now, he’s kind of just Jimmy Graham doing Jimmy Graham things. That’s not necessarily a bad thing but is it enough to consider paying out a big new contract?
Bradley McDougald
The argument for…
After a quiet start to the season McDougald has excelled since replacing Kam Chancellor at strong safety. He’s a different player to Kam but what he lacks in big hits and run defense he perhaps makes up for in quickness and the ability to cover ground.
It’ll be impossible for anyone to replace Kam’s stature, leadership and tone-setting presence. Yet McDougald’s play hasn’t made Chancellor’s absence a big factor in Seattle’s 8-5 record. Compare the way he’s performing to the relief safety’s a year ago when Chancellor and Earl Thomas both missed time. McDougald looks like a legit starter.
With Chancellor set to make a decision on whether he continues playing in 2017, retaining McDougald would buy him and the team some time. They did draft Delano Hill this year, spending a valuable third round pick to bring him in. Yet McDougald has played well enough to wonder whether they should automatically turn it over to the younger, cheaper player. In 2018 if Richard Sherman returns as expected and they get healthy — the Seahawks will not suffer a significant drop off at safety if McDougald is the full-time starter.
He’s not the biggest name set for free agency but he might be one of the most valuable to keep around, especially if Chancellor does retire. Replacing Kam once looked like a daunting task. They might’ve found the man for the job.
The argument against…
Cost could be an issue. The Seahawks admitted they were a bit surprised when they found McDougald was available in free agency. They weren’t necessarily looking to add a veteran safety but quickly signed him to a $2m contract. After a successful stint in Seattle and with McDougald at a good age (27) he might not be as cheap or be willing to sign another short term deal.
With cap space limited it comes down to priorities. Having drafted Hill in round three and with at least the possibility of Chancellor returning, this might not work out. Personally I think McDougald could and should be a priority, if not the priority. He’s at a good age and represents an opportunity to replace a key, ageing star with another high quality replacement. His attitude and playing style seems to fit the team.
Yet if they decide other players need to be the priority instead, they might not be able to make this work. And you have to believe other teams have noticed how well McDougald is playing this year.
Luke Joeckel
The argument for…
Seattle’s offensive line, after a rough season and a half, is finally taking shape. It’s still a work in progress but the recent improvement is obvious and substantial. Duane Brown has provided a major positive influence at left tackle and the five current starters look like a unit that could competently start for some time.
Brown, Justin Britt and Germain Ifedi appear relatively locked in. Yes, that includes Ifedi. Breno Giacomini had an issue with penalties too but once he addressed that he was a worthy starter. This is Ifedi’s first season at right tackle in the NFL and he has, overall, performed well enough to expect continued progression. Hopefully we’ll see similar progress from Ethan Pocic in time.
If Joeckel walks they have to fill the left guard spot again and go through more change. The alternatives in free agency are dreadful and with limited draft stock, they might have to look at the options already on the roster. Going back to Mark Glowinski, moving George Fant to guard or going with Jordan Roos or Rees Odhiambo are options. None are former #2 overall picks though and Joeckel, when healthy, has been competent. Not flawless, but competent.
Consistency is a big thing for an offensive line. Chemistry, turning five guys into one machine. There’s been too much churn for too long with this O-line. Now that they have five guys they can grow and build with, it might be time to roll with it.
The argument against…
The health of Joeckel’s knee is a question mark. He’s already had significant injuries in his career and he missed a number of games this season to have a minor repair. We have no idea about his medical situation. The team might actually be quite optimistic about the knee. It’s an issue that’s out there though and makes you wonder how the Seahawks might approach this one.
They clearly like Joeckel. At one point in the summer they were talking him up as one of the better guards in the NFL. Within minutes of free agency opening, Seattle’s first move was to sign Joeckel. Now they’ve had a year to work with him, check on his health, see how he fits. Yet if they’re concerned about his durability they almost have to continue to think short term again or move on.
The growing cost of offensive linemen also needs to be considered here. There’s been a recent explosion in O-line contracts with even middling players getting huge deals. Joeckel’s 2017 contract is described as expensive by some but it’s actually pretty good value all things considered.
If he has a market in the off-season he could receive some lucrative offers. That could make it hard for the Seahawks to compete with limited cap room.
They’re also paying significantly for two players on their O-line already. Duane Brown’s cap hit in 2018 is $9.75m. Justin Britt’s new average salary is $9m per year. This could be a factor — but they were willing to pay Brown, Joeckel and Britt this year so there’s nothing to suggest that’d be a road block.
Sheldon Richardson
The argument for…
They’ve already spent their 2018 second round pick on Richardson. If he walks and gets a huge contract, they’ll potentially get a comp pick in 2019. That’s a long way in the future though and depends on the deal he gets and Seattle not making any big free agent acquisitions themselves.
It would be quite the thing for the Seahawks to move on from Richardson and essentially get nothing more than one season out of their 2018 second rounder. When you consider they might not get anything out of their first pick from 2017 (Malik McDowell) they’d have wasted two high picks in the space of a year. That would be tolerable if the Seahawks were serious contenders to win the Super Bowl this season. Imagine if they don’t make the playoffs though, a stark possibility unfortunately, having been so wasteful with high draft picks?
It wouldn’t be a good look. And while saving face isn’t a good enough reason alone to give someone a massive new contract — they surely had to have a long term plan for Richardson? Unless they just believed he would help them win a title this year, thus limiting the negative reaction if he was to walk after one year?
On the field he hasn’t had the kind of impact many were hoping for, at least in terms of sacks. The minimum expectation was probably 5-6 sacks, similar to the production Clinton McDonald and Jordan Hill produced in 2013 and 2014. Instead Richardson has just one sack, albeit with a number of near misses.
That said, personally I think Richardson has been a good acquisition. He fits the personality of the defense, has provided an aggressive and physical presence for the interior and he’s a quality defender against the run. We know he can be more of a pass rush threat and this might just be ‘one of those years’ for him in terms of stats.
The simple fact is there aren’t many great interior defensive linemen in the league. Richardson isn’t Aaron Donald but he’s a cut above most of the other options out there. The Seahawks will either need a top-15 pick in the future or about $15-18m to spend in free agency if they want to find a player of this quality down the road. If anything, his lack of production in 2017 could lead to a discounted extension.
The argument against…
Teams are throwing money at the trenches. Offensive and defensive linemen are getting two or three times more than they were earning just a few years ago. Richardson could get a contract offer in the region of $13-16m a year. Lesser players have received big offers.
Malik Jackson for example is earning $14.25m a year in Jacksonville. Bad teams looking to make a big jump could look at the Jags’ and their big spending on the D-line and try to emulate their approach. It won’t be a big shock if Richardson gets an offer similar to Jackson’s. If that happens, Seattle will struggle to match and likely has to settle for a third round comp pick in 2019.
If they want to keep him at a big cost, it limits their ability to do much else. Unless Richardson is willing to take a discount or just doesn’t get the big offer because of a lack of 2017 production and some character concerns, they won’t have much money to retain the other names in this piece.
And consider this. If his average salary is more than $14m a year, he’d be the second highest paid player on the team behind only Russell Wilson. Are you comfortable with Sheldon Richardson being the second highest paid player on the roster? Currently the top five are Wilson, Sherman, Chancellor, Baldwin and Wagner (followed by Bennett and Thomas). That all makes perfect sense. Richardson at #2 ahead of some of those names? Not so much.
Paul Richardson
The argument for…
When Richardson has been healthy he’s looked really good. That goes back to his rookie season in 2014, the way he finished strongly in 2016 and this 2017 season where he’s scored six touchdowns and compiled 664 yards. After Doug Baldwin, he’s become the next most vital receiver — making explosive plays downfield and contributing in the short game too.
Richardson is capable of the spectacular. And for a team that loves exciting, dynamic, highlight reel plays from the skill positions — Richardson ticks that box.
He also looks like he’s really just getting started. It’s not unusual for a receiver to play his best football 3-4 years into a career. Golden Tate is a good example of that. Look at how Robert Woods has come on playing for the Rams. It’d be a shame to go this far with Richardson only to watch him go elsewhere and deliver on the major potential he’s started to show.
It’s also increasingly the Russell Wilson show in Seattle. They’ve started to invest more cap space into the offensive line. They kind of have a duty to keep Wilson’s receivers intact too. Especially the ones who are stepping up to make plays consistently.
The argument against…
They drafted Amara Darboh in round three a year ago and could potentially make a big saving by allowing Richardson to leave, putting their faith in a prospect they clearly liked a lot. It’d be a big risk to rely on a second year receiver but the Seahawks can’t pay everyone.
In many ways this is similar to the Bradley McDougald situation. The Seahawks began planning ahead with their 2017 draft. Darboh was a good hedge considering Jermaine Kearse and Richardson might be close to the end. Delano Hill could come in as a potential heir apparent to Kam Chancellor. Some of these younger draft picks are going to need an opportunity eventually.
Receiver contracts are also quite big at the moment. Alshon Jeffery just signed a deal worth $13m a year in Philadelphia. Jeffery has 732 yards and eight touchdowns in 2017 — so his numbers are quite similar to Richardson’s. Robert Woods was offered a $6.8m a year deal by the Rams despite a fairly underwhelming spell in Buffalo.
That $6-7m range might be the floor Richardson is looking at unless teams are put off by his injury history. In isolation that’s not an unreasonable sum of money for a good #2 receiver. Yet the Seahawks have multiple big decisions to make and are already paying a high number of players large salaries. Eventually they have to start making some tough decisions.
If you missed it earlier, I was invited onto a Field Gulls podcast to talk draft yesterday. Check it out by clicking here.
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I was invited to appear on another Field Gulls podcast this week specifically to talk about the draft and my mock draft last week. There’s a bit of Seahawks talk at the end too. Check it out below.
