There are only two worthwhile descriptions for a NFL franchise.

Super Bowl contender, or on a journey to become a Super Bowl contender.

If you don’t fit either category, it’s a waste of time.

A lot is made of Mike Tomlin’s record of never having a losing season. It sounds great. The reality is the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016. They do a great job avoiding being awful (until now, at least). That’s it. Hang the banner.

Tomlin’s teams have muddled along, being good enough to be vaguely relevant for a period without anyone actually thinking they’re going to win a Super Bowl.

This year they’re 7-7 with at least a chance to once again avoid a losing season. Yet during a three-game losing streak against the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts — nobody can say with a straight face that the Steelers are ‘contenders’.

For me, this is a dangerous place for a team to be. It prevents you from taking the actions needed to become contenders again. It’s why I worry about the Seahawks — because it feels like they’re in a very similar place.

For Seattle it’s one playoff win in six years, against a very average Eagles team featuring 40-year-old Josh McCown at quarterback. In the last seven seasons (including this one), they’ve won the NFC West just once. It’s their worst run since re-joining the division in 2002.

The Seahawks have been far from a bad team but they’ve also consistently felt like they’re a ways off being a serious challenger. On top of this, persistent issues have blighted the team — such as poor defensive output and an identity that comes and goes. It’s been nearly a decade since the Seahawks have felt like a legit contender.

Whenever this is brought up, there’s a rapid-fire response from some fans accusing others of being ‘spoilt’. How can you possibly complain about being in the playoff mix? Other teams would love to be in that position.

I would challenge that. Fans of the Browns, for example, do not dream of being the Seahawks. They dream of being the Chiefs, competing in three Super Bowls in recent years. They dream of being the 49ers, a consistent contender for multiple years. They’ll think about copying the Buccs and Rams, recent winners of the Super Bowl. Or can they find a way to emulate the Eagles, Super Bowl winners and runners-up within a few years?

They don’t want to be a team that is ‘good enough to maybe qualify for the playoffs’. It’s utterly pointless. As I said at the start, you need to either be a contender or be on a path to becoming one. Crappy teams don’t aspire to be average teams. The end result is the same. And fans of average teams shouldn’t settle into the comfort of merely not being ‘bad’.

I would argue the Steelers and Seahawks are stuck in a large NFL middle-ground — or purgatory as some people call it. They do just enough every year to stay in this zone and it just leads to avoiding making difficult decisions to enact needed change.

I can’t watch Pittsburgh’s last three games and think they’re a good off-season away. Their offense needs a total rebuild from scratch. This likely isn’t possible within 24 months, when a lot of the core, impressive defensive talent will be nearing the end of their careers.

The Seahawks are different, their issues flip-flop between offense and defense a lot more. They don’t have a defense like Pittsburgh’s but they have a better quarterback and weapons. Schematically they feel uncultured on both sides of the ball and they haven’t had a ‘big’ eye-catching win for several years (beating the Lions doesn’t count, I’m afraid).

The Steelers are 7-7 and the Seahawks are 6-7.

Both teams would lap the Panthers or Patriots in a race. Both would be battered by the 49ers and well-beaten by other legit contenders.

The problem is, neither team regresses enough to have a serious conversation about any of this. The topic is consistently dodged and those wishing to discuss it are derided as ungrateful lunatics.

Maybe Pittsburgh’s reaching that point now, given just how bad they’ve been recently? It started to happen in Seattle this week, with serious reporters speculating on Carroll’s future.

Yet if either or both teams sneak into the playoffs as a lousy seventh seed, making up the numbers so the greedy NFL can make even more money with it’s dumb ‘Super Wildcard Weekend’ nonsense, I suspect the same narrative will begin all over again.

‘How can you criticise Tomlin/Carroll, they’re in the playoffs!‘

Rinse and repeat. See you in 12 months where the same thing happens again. Meanwhile we all get a bit older, the Steelers still suck on offense and Carroll is still talking about trying to fix the same old problems and Jamal Adams is still earning a fortune to deliver a crappy PFF grade while celebrating the other team ‘only’ gaining seven yards on first down.

Neither team is on the path to contention. I suspect neither will get there without bold, serious change.

Firstly, the coaches. Both are Super Bowl winners yet neither seems likely to reach that point again. Particularly in the case of 72-year-old Carroll, with only two years remaining on his contract and possibly his career. Does anyone think two more years of doing the same thing in Seattle will lead to a title? If not, what’s the reason for continuing? Convenience ahead of a franchise sale we speculate a lot about but know little about in reality? Existing purely for Carroll to work to his preferred timescale, rather than what is most optimal for team success?

Meanwhile with Tomlin — Pittsburgh’s offense is so utterly dreadful, they look like a team that needs to pivot to a younger, more creative offensive mind — paired with a more aggressive approach to fixing the quarterback position.

They’ve been in charge since 2007 in Tomlin’s case and 2010 in Carroll’s. That’s a long time. Eventually, you need a different vision. Things can’t just go on forever. The Patriots are experiencing that currently. Bill Belichick’s legacy is being slightly impacted by seeing just how bad New England are without Tom Brady. Nobody will take away Belichick’s rightful place as one of the all-time greats. Yet it’s pretty clear now that Brady’s brilliance, paired with his ability to put up with Belichick’s grumpy, borderline toxic ways, is what led to so much success. Without Brady, the Patriots are bloody awful and fairly shambolic.

Without peak-Ben Roethlisberger, Tomlin likewise hasn’t been able to create a winner. Without the LOB, Marshawn Lynch and peak-Russell Wilson, Carroll’s in the same boat. Neither coach, as an individual, seems to be elevating their teams schematically. This is a stark contrast to the work of Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and even coaches like Zac Taylor, winning with a backup quarterback.

Tomlin and Carroll would be best served avoiding Belichick’s fate and going out with fond memories still attached, rather than letting things get even sourer.

Yet I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks will beat the collapsing, injury-hit Eagles on Monday and we’ll have a week of fans and media crowing that any suggestion of a future beyond Carroll is the stuff of entitlement and stupidity.

I said a few weeks ago I think Carroll can still be a Super Bowl Head Coach. In order to do it, though, he’d need to be prepared to change. My favourite Carroll quote is, “it’s never too late to reinvent yourself.” I wish he would’ve taken that advice a while ago, acknowledged his flaws (schematics, details) and gone out to employ the best coordinators money can buy and let them run the offense and defense, becoming an experienced overseer and motivator.

He’ll never do that. Control is too important for Carroll. He needs to do things his way. It’s the only reason he ever returned to the NFL, because the Seahawks were offering total control.

That’s not to say he hasn’t tried to delegate. Clearly we saw that with ‘Let Russ Cook’ in 2020. Yet at the first sign of trouble, he wrestled back control and they went back to Carroll-ball. It was indicative of how uncomfortable he is ceding responsibility and there’s no chance, sadly, of him ever being a Nick Saban type of Head Coach who gives the keys to his coordinators.

I can’t root against the Seahawks. I’m a Seahawks fan. I never miss a game, despite many beginning in the early hours of the morning. I’ve committed 15 years of my life to writing a blog about the team, eating my free time at a rate comparable to a dog let loose in a butcher’s.

I also can’t say I’ll be that pumped watching the Eagles game on Monday, or feeling very celebratory if they win. I fear the Seahawks will finish by beating some bad teams, potentially squeeze into the playoffs (they only need to usurp the Rams and Packers, who are both wildly inconsistent) and we’ll have more false dawn rhetoric, ‘run-it-back’ platitudes and we’ll get to witness 2024 looking exactly like 2023.

There are two, maybe three teams in the NFC who are actually good. The rest are mediocre or awful. Being seventh best in a bad conference, during a poor-quality NFL season, qualifying for the playoffs and then making very little noise in the post-season, is not attractive if all it does is delay the kind of front-line change required to get this team back to the top.

I don’t want to endure another year of excuses for having another very expensive bottom-10 defensive unit. I can’t listen to chatter about identity when they can’t run the ball. I don’t want to hear over-hyped praise for Seattle’s culture while people like Jamal Adams act like a jerk on social media with zero public accountability from Carroll or the team. Most importantly, I can’t watch Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay continue to dance rings around a coach who has no counter-punch for either of them.

New ideas, a new vision, a new quarterback, fresh attention to detail, expensive and underperforming players cut, re-emphasis on the trenches and the potential to be back on the path to contention, rather than deluding ourselves (as the Seahawks did with the Leonard Williams trade) that we’re already there.

That is what’s required in Seattle.

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I wasn’t going to post this unless things took a turn in the final four games. Then I heard Albert Breer, Mike Garafolo, Ian Rapoport and Gregg Bell all speculate on whether Pete Carroll might be coming to the end in the space of 24 hours and thought, I’m going to get this out there.

Rapoport, for what it’s worth, said on KJR today that he “really thought” Carroll was stepping down three years ago and also linked Dan Quinn as a replacement. He also couched his speculation by saying he hears this all the time and so far, it hasn’t happened. So he’d ‘almost have to hear it from the man himself’ to report it definitively.

Of course nothing has been decided and yes, it’s all what I’d call ‘educated speculation’ at this point. Breer, Garafolo, Rapoport and Bell aren’t just coincidently all opting to fire this into the air at the same time. There’s no smoke without fire. Yet the likelihood is that any decision will be heavily influenced by the next four games.

I’m not a big fan of that idea because I don’t think you should make a decision on such a small sample size of results. Either Carroll is energised and fully committed or he isn’t. Either the franchise believes he can win a Super Bowl before his contract expires in two years or they don’t. Finishing 9-8 and making the playoffs as a seventh seed shouldn’t change anything, assuming it’s a short-lived post-season berth.

This is likely the hand we’re dealt though as Seahawks fans. Either the team is going to turn things around and the status quo remains or Carroll appears to at least be contemplating the end.

Quinn is already being touted as a replacement and he would be on my list of candidates. I’ve written why below, along with five other options I think are worthy of being discussed.

Brian Callahan (OC, Cincinnati Bengals)

There are several reasons why Callahan appeals. Firstly, he understands the modern game. Watch this interview. He’s asked after 55 seconds to discuss how the NFL is evolving. He speaks about ‘the teams who win the most games’ and why they are succeeding (and it’s a very offensive-minded answer). To me this is the way the Seahawks need to go — using their weapons on offense to form a new identity.

I also think the Seahawks need to draft a quarterback early in 2024, possibly after moving up in the draft. Callahan has been the offensive coordinator with the Bengals since 2019. This means he has worked closely with Joe Burrow since he was drafted in 2020. Having experience of working with and developing a rookie is a big plus if the Seahawks are going to take that path next year.

Callahan is very experienced within the NFL. He worked closely with Peyton Manning in Denver and was on the staff when they won a Super Bowl. He has also helped guide the Bengals to the Super Bowl — so he knows what it takes to make a deep playoff run.

Despite an injury-plagued season for Burrow, the Bengals are currently ranked 11th for offense on DVOA. They’re currently winning games with Jake Browning in relief.

Finally, he is the son of long-time offensive line coach Bill Callahan. I don’t know whether they would have interest in working together but the idea of bringing his father — one of the best O-line coaches in the business — to Seattle would be a real asset.

Potential downside — he doesn’t call the plays in Cincinnati and that’s not always an easy adjustment, although he could hire an experienced play-caller.

Eric Bienemy (OC, Washington Commanders)

You can’t help but admire what Bienemy did this year. He could’ve stayed in Kansas City, coached Patrick Mahomes as Andy Reid’s right-hand man and enjoyed a fairly straight forward existence. Instead, he moved on to the disaster-zone that is Washington. He wanted to control an offense and show what he could do without Reid and Mahomes. Instead of the best offensive player in the league, he took on the challenge of a former fifth-round pick starting at QB for the first time (Sam Howell).

He’s done a good job. Howell has been productive. This has happened despite having no O-line to work with and very little in the way of weapons outside of Terry McLaurin. If you draft a quarterback in 2024, Bienemy has shown he can help develop that player and put him in a position to succeed.

Bienemy can lean on his experience working with Reid, he knows what it takes to win (double Super Bowl champion) and his offensive system will be modern, aggressive and would make the most out of Seattle’s weapons. It’d be very easy to get behind the appointment, giving Bienemy a long-anticipated opportunity to lead a team.

By taking a gamble in moving to Washington, he’s shown how determined he is to make things happen in terms of a Head Coaching position. I think that’s admirable and he’d be worth a shot.

Potential downside — he has been interviewed, and passed over, many times — there has to be a reason why.

Ben Johnson (OC, Detroit Lions)

Seen as the hot-shot offensive candidate for openings this off-season, Johnson passed over jobs in the last cycle to spend another year in Detroit. He’s played a big part in the Lions becoming explosive and dynamic — with the #7 ranked offense per DVOA. Johnson is creative and has managed to get a song out of Jared Goff after he was dumped by the Rams.

Johnson graduated from North Carolina with a degree in mathematics and computer science. He’s a good age (37) and is in-tune with all the modern elements of the NFL.

He basically runs the offense in Detroit. Although Dan Campbell is a former offensive player, he’s an overseer. In Johnson you’d be getting someone who knows how to run an offense, call plays and handle a lot of responsibility. There’s also a good staff in Detroit and you’d imagine he’d be able to surround himself with a decent group.

There’d also be some crossover in terms of identity. Campbell combines physical and tough with explosive in Detroit. The Lions are fourth in the league in rushing yards and fourth in yards-per-attempt. That’s what the Seahawks have been looking for. Perhaps Johnson can finally deliver?

Potential downside — he’s been able to work with a veteran QB in Detroit so there’s no experience of elevating a younger, unproven player. This could be a minor quibble if they intend to draft a quarterback.

Bobby Slowik (OC, Houston Texans)

The Texans have been a big surprise this year. They’re competitive, C.J. Stroud has been tremendous and the future seems bright. Slowik, who is from the Kyle Shanahan tree, has done a great job with Stroud. It helps that the quarterback is as talented as he is — but Slowik has earned rave reviews from Texans fans.

The idea of getting someone with first-hand experience of working with a young QB, plus someone who can install Shanahan’s offensive system, is very appealing. Houston’s offense, despite having little in the way of expectations this year, is currently ranked 12th per DVOA.

Although he only turned 36 this year, he was with the 49ers between 2017-2022. His final two jobs in San Francisco were passing game coordinator and passing game specialist. He would be able to incorporate some of the modern-day offensive scheming the Seahawks lack. He could also make the most of Seattle’s weapons — look how he has transformed Nico Collins and succeeded with Tank Dell.

Slowik has the feel of a true up-and-comer and we’ve seen coaches from the Shanahan/McVay tree mimic the Rams’ Head Coach by becoming accomplished leaders in their young careers.

Potential downside — after just one year of calling plays in Houston, he might be a little bit inexperienced. He also might prefer to spend another season with the Texans.

Mike LaFleur (OC, LA Rams)

It didn’t work for LeFleur with the Jets — but that could be down to the fact it was an impossible job to make Zach Wilson relevant. His was a short-lived spell as an offensive coordinator in New York but he might be stronger for the experience.

Speaking of experience, let’s look at his background. He was an offensive assistant for the Falcons working for Kyle Shanahan, before moving to the 49ers with Shanahan in 2017. He was passing game coordinator for three years in San Francisco before getting the Jets job. This year, he’s now Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator with the Rams. He’s achieved all of this despite only being 36-years-old.

Clearly Shanahan and McVay value his ability. This is a piece well worth reading on what he’s doing in LA and the trust he has earned:

The new offensive coordinator of the Rams is doing things McVay did in the past and things that Liam Coen, Kevin O’Connell, Shane Waldron, Zac Taylor and Matt LaFleur, Mike’s brother, never did when they were in similar positions under McVay.

McVay still will call plays, but he trusts LaFleur to take from his plate because LaFleur can connect with players and coaches.

“We’re lucky to have him,” McVay says of his 36-year-old assistant. “You know, he makes me feel a lot better about being able to be a head coach because he can lead those guys on offense. And while we see the game through a similar lens, he’s also not afraid to challenge me. And he takes the initiative.”

LaFleur’s brother Matt has been a net-success in Green Bay and when you’re rated this highly by McVay, I’m paying attention. Kevin O’Connell and Zac Taylor have also become good Head Coaches after working with McVay.

Potential downside: The Jets spell ended badly even if it was a tough gig and it’s hard to shake that from your memory.

Dan Quinn (DC, Dallas Cowboys)

The only defensive-minded coach on the list. I get the sense he learned a lot from his time in Atlanta. When he lost Kyle Shanahan, things kind of fell apart. There’s always a chance that happens again but I think he appreciates the need to have a certain caliber of offensive mind calling the plays.

Quinn knows the Seahawks and has a prior connection to the team, which could make for a smoother transition. There’d be some crossover if Carroll departed. I do trust him to go out and put together a strong staff. I also think it helps that he’s worked with Mike McCarthy, who openly admitted he reinvented himself after leaving Green Bay. Quinn has supposedly also spent time preparing for his next go at being a Head Coach.

I’d expect Quinn to be modern in his thinking, aggressive and rejuvenated. Unlike the other candidates, he’s been there and done it and nothing will surprise him. He’s already made mistakes to learn from.

His Dallas defense is highly productive and currently ranked sixth per DVOA (having finished fourth in the previous two seasons). He wouldn’t get to bring Micah Parsons with him sadly but at least he’d be coming from a team that has invested in the trenches and at cornerback, saving money at linebacker and safety.

Potential downside: He’d have to get the offensive coordinator hire right and even if he did, there’s always a chance that person leaves and then things unravel again.

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Well, this is interesting.

Albert Breer from SI.com was asked in his latest mailbag whether Pete Carroll will be coaching the Seahawks in 2024.

Here’s his response in full:

I’d say I’m less sure of it than I have been in recent years. Going into this year, it sure looked like the Seahawks were creeping closer toward having the kind of core group of players they did in Carroll’s early years, with a very solid 2022 draft class coming back and the ’23 class bursting with promise.

Now they’re 6–7 heading into a matchup against the NFC champion Eagles, who are coming off consecutive losses. So while Seattle remains loaded with young talent, it’s fair to ask how far away they might be from a championship and where they stand at quarterback after this year. Because, while coming into this year I thought that infusion of young talent might keep Carroll around for a while, if the coach doesn’t think he’s that close, it could alter his decision on returning for next season (during which he’ll turn 73).

And the idea that Seattle would try to get Cowboys DC Dan Quinn (who was Seattle’s DC for its two Super Bowl trips a decade ago) if Carroll were to retire has been floated around a little. Which … the Seahawks could do a lot worse than that, if this were to be it.

Interestingly, Puck & Jim on KJR played a segment from Breer discussing this on their radio show earlier. Afterwards, Puck revealed that Mike Garafolo had spoken to him recently and suggested the same thing about Carroll. You can hear it by clicking here and fast-forwarding to 14:30. You can also hear from Garafolo on the same show here:

“I’m picking up what Breer’s putting down. The Seattle/Dallas game is where I was really hearing a lot of that, ‘don’t be surprised if this all falls into place’. I believe that some people think this could be the end for sure, depending on how this finishes up down the stretch.”

Back to Breer’s article and let’s start with the retirement talk. It’s interesting that this is at least being discussed by a reporter of Breer’s status. It’s still wholly speculative. There’s no reporting here, just thoughts. But we haven’t had anything like this since the end of the 2017 season when Jay Glazer suggested Carroll was considering retiring.

It’s worth noting that back in 2017, things were imploding somewhat. Weeks after that season ended, players like Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett were cut. A major re-set took place, with two new coordinators. If the Seahawks are facing something similar in a month’s time, it’s worth considering whether Carroll — now six years older — still has the appetite to go through it all again. Especially if he was thinking of walking in 2017.

Carroll can’t look at the current product on the field and think the Seahawks are close. They’re a long way off. The games against San Francisco brutally exposed that. If the decision is based around a feeling that a lot of work is still required, that could lend weight to Breer’s speculation.

We also need to think about the trade for Leonard Williams. When the Seahawks were in first place, making that trade, it was clearly an attempt to take ownership of the division. To go 1-5 since that move, with two hefty defeats against San Francisco thrown into the mix, is a stark reminder of how far behind Seattle is. The aggressive nature of the trade could also be indicative of a coach who was in a rush to win.

I think Carroll has continued not for the sake of it but because he genuinely felt like success was forthcoming. In 2017, he cracked on and why not? Russell Wilson was about to enter his peak years. There’s nothing like that now. Instead there’s K.J. Wright going on the radio and suggesting the players ‘don’t give a damn’ about what Carroll’s saying while also wondering if the coach is equally a bit sick of certain players on the roster. Meanwhile, we can all see a team with no identity and serious question marks at key positions.

You can’t ignore all of this stuff and there’s a definite ‘end game’ feel to what we’re witnessing. John Middlekauff and Colin Cowherd talked about ‘the end’ a few days ago. Now we have this from Breer. It’ll only grow if the Seahawks lose a fifth game in a row on Monday night.

Let’s finish with the final paragraph and the suggestion by Breer that people within the league are at least discussing the possibility of Carroll departing and Dan Quinn replacing him.

If you’d have said any time over the last two years, put money on someone to replace Carroll, I would’ve put it on Quinn. They are clearly very close. Carroll talks glowingly about Quinn. At the various pro-days this year, the pair were often spotted in conversation. There’s a big connection there.

It’d be very easy to see Quinn as a continuity candidate, carrying some of the Carroll DNA forwards while putting his own slant on things.

He’s also been a Head Coach, has helped lead a team to the Super Bowl and nothing will surprise him in the top job. It’d be a safe appointment.

For all of these reasons, it’d be an easy sell to fans. With Head Coaching appointments you often try to ‘win the press conference’ as owners/decision makers. This would be a way to do that and even those not keen on the move would likely give Quinn a chance.

His defenses in Dallas have succeeded. They’re currently sixth in the league per DVOA and in 2022 and 2021 they finished fourth. He has consistently produced a top-performing unit.

Clearly Quinn has benefited from the presence of Micah Parsons — a thoroughly unique playmaker who fits the bill of ‘generational talent’. He wouldn’t be coming to Seattle with Quinn, obviously.

This is a point people uneasy with the appointment will make.

For the sake of balance, it’s worth noting that many other players are performing well under Quinn’s leadership. DaRon Bland is setting records for interceptions and has a 90.5 PFF grade as a former fifth round pick. Malik Hooker is grading as a top-10 safety and Stephon Gilmore has returned to form at cornerback. Markquese Bell is PFF’s seventh ranked linebacker and Osa Odighizuwa is their fifth ranked interior defensive lineman. DeMarcus Lawrence has a 90.3 grade and several other defenders are grading well too.

Maybe Parsons is just so good that everyone else jumps up a level? Or maybe Quinn has actually done a really good job developing and maxing out Parsons with creative scheming, while elevating a number of other players (young and old)?

Another criticism might be that Quinn’s Atlanta success was heavily influenced by Kyle Shanahan’s presence as offensive coordinator. When he departed for San Francisco, things fell apart somewhat. After the pair went 8-8 together in 2015, they finished 11-5 the following year and reached a Super Bowl they should’ve won. Without Shanahan, Quinn went 10-6, 7-9, 7-9 and 0-5 before being fired.

Shanahan turned Matt Ryan into the league MVP. Steve Sarkisian replaced him for two years, then Dirk Koetter took over. They never reached anywhere near the 2016 heights.

This is the problem with any defensive hire as a Head Coach. The league is so heavily weighted to offense now that unless you get the play-caller/quarterback right, you immediately put yourself on the back foot. DeMeco Ryans is an example of how it works with Bobby Slowik and C.J. Stroud. Dennis Allen, with Pete Carmichael Jr and Derek Carr, is an example of it not working.

The other problem is that when you have any success on offense, you’re likely to lose your offensive coordinator as Quinn did in 2016. It’s why so many teams now prefer to go the offensive route. You need your play-caller and QB to be tight. You need your offensive game-plan to be consistently strong. You won’t lose your play-caller or system to another team if the Head Coach is also the man leading the offense.

Quinn has presumably spent considerable time pondering who he’d like to hire if he gets another chance to be a Head Coach. It could be someone like Kellen Moore — who’s not guaranteed to stay with the Chargers if Brandon Staley is fired. It could be an up-and-comer on the Dallas staff, such as Scott Tolzien. It could be someone we wouldn’t expect. Preferably it would be someone with the sufficient chops to lead this team and potentially develop a young quarterback, with it feeling increasingly inevitable that they’re going to draft a QB. If Carroll retires, whoever the new Head Coach is has to — as an absolute priority — find a way to maximise the weapons Seattle has on offense with cultured scheming, misdirection and far more consistency.

I wouldn’t hate a Quinn hire, even if I’d prefer the team to somehow land the next great offensive mind. This isn’t a fantastic coaching cycle in 2024. There are offensive-minded candidates but some aren’t calling plays because they work behind offensive Head Coaches. Some are young, raw and would be unpredictable. There aren’t many big name options. The 49ers don’t have an offensive coordinator to poach (they simply have Chris Foerster operating the running game and O-line and Klint Kubiak acts as a passing game specialist) while McVay’s coordinator is Mike LaFleur who is respected but recently struggled with the Jets.

With Quinn, at least we know he’s been there and got the T-shirt. He’ll have hopefully learned from his time in Atlanta. There’s something to be said for that. He’s likeable, uncontroversial and it’d feel like a solid hire.

I can also well imagine Carroll’s approval being part of any potential departure, too. And as noted, he and Quinn are close.

That might be my least likeable thing about it though. There needs to be a proper clean break with new messaging and a new staff. It can’t just be Carroll’s staff with Dan Quinn and a few others. The Seahawks can’t cling to the old glory days with the hope that Quinn can effectively be a young Carroll. If they did end up with Quinn, you’d hope he’d be given a big say in putting together a new staff with a focus on a fresh start and a clean break.

He would also have to get the offensive coordinator position right.

I appreciate this is all still very much in the ‘need to see it to believe it’ stage but when you listen on the radio these days, both KJR and 710 are talking about Carroll’s future. Breer’s talking about it. Middlekauff and Cowherd are talking about it. Garafolo is talking about it.

Without a serious upturn in results in the last four games, maybe change is around the corner after all?

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This is starting to feel like the end to 2009.

K.J. Wright, who presumably still has some decent contacts with the team (cough, Bobby Wagner) made his weekly appearance on Brock & Salk today.

You can listen to the whole thing here but I’m going to break down the highlights.

— Wright was asked who the leaders are on the team, after he suggested you need at least four. He named Wagner. He then tilted his head back and forth when Quandre Diggs’ name was mentioned, before stating, “I’ll say this, there isn’t four. Let’s be crystal clear, there isn’t four guys.” He then suggested there were only two. Geno Smith’s name was brought up and in the video (watch here), Wright rolls his eyes and shakes his head in a way that made it absolutely clear he doesn’t believe Geno is a leader. He settled on Wagner and Jarran Reed. That’s it.

— He went on to say the team are distracted. “They’re fighting their own internal battles within the building.” He was then played a clip of Pete Carroll, responding curtly to a question about whether the players are listening to his message. “What I’m hearing from Coach Carroll is he’s sick and tired of these guys. He feels like he’s preaching to them but they’re not receiving his message well. It says they don’t give a damn what he’s saying at this point.”

— Wright said Carroll has to do something to send a message. That if he’s inactive, people will react to that. “If you just continue to let this behaviour continue, oh he’s not holding these guys accountable. If I look at us on Monday Night Football and I see the same personnel out there, if I see the same plays out there… it’s not good enough.”

— Mike Salk asked how serious the situation is in Seattle and how important the last four weeks are for this era of Seahawks football. “It’s everything” replied Wright. “I know how much this means to him (Carroll) but when I look at his personnel, they don’t have his back.”

— “What’s rule #1?” Wright asked at the start of the hour. “Protect the team. Some guys have completely dropped the ball when it comes to protecting the team.” This was a clear message to Jamal Adams and the fight at the end of the 49ers game. “That’s what these guys have failed with miserably.”

— Salk criticised Jamal Adams, saying he was “way out of bounds” over his tweets, noting he didn’t apologise (instead he doubled down) and then made an excellent point about there being no public accountability. The Seahawks may have acted behind the scenes but to the fans and media, it just looks like they swept it under the carpet. Compare this to the way the Bills acted on Shaq Lawson and then allowed the story to creep into the public domain. To an outsider, the Seahawks have just brushed this off. It’s not good enough and Salk was right to point it out. His broader point was that there’s a lack of accountability. Wright called on Carroll to “lay down the law” with the players, adding, “enough is enough.” He also criticised Adams for his actions. I appreciate it’s a bit rich, given Wright’s feeble ‘apology’ after voicing concerning opinions on social media last year — but I thought I’d add it here.

— Brock Huard brought up that Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick’s days might be numbered in Pittsburgh and New England. He asked Wright whether, after 14 years, Carroll’s messaging has run its course. “They’re not receiving it, they’re not respecting it. We bought in during our time. If these guys are not buying in, you have to do something. He’s not holding these guys accountable. You have to create some kind of shock in this building.”

— Huard also noted the Seahawks can’t run the ball. They’ve had one 100-yard rusher all season, the lowest output in Carroll’s entire tenure. In 13 games they only have five 100-yard rushing games. Spelt out on air, it’s incredible — given what they’ve invested in the running game in terms of stock and personnel. “There’s no nastiness, there’s no grittiness on the offensive line” added Wright.

So there you have it.

Players aren’t listening to the message. Players are thinking about themselves and their own interests. Players don’t give a damn what Carroll’s saying. Carroll needs to send a message and isn’t producing enough accountability. They can’t run the ball. The players don’t have Carroll’s back.

This is a mess.

Are the Seahawks seriously going to be able to get this back on track when they cut people like Diggs and Adams in the off-season? They’ve spent all this resource to endure blowout defeats, a four-game losing streak and have people as connected as K.J. Wright questioning whether the players are even listening to the coach. In fact, he’s questioning whether they even care what he says.

This isn’t sustainable. It’s been a great 14-season run but cutting a few players and a tweak here or there isn’t going to be enough. When you start talking about players tuning out the message and there being such glaring problems that totally contradict the chosen identity, what does that say?

They’ve spent a fortune in picks and salary to have the 26th best defense in the NFL per DVOA. They’ve spent two second round picks on running backs and they can’t run the ball. Players aren’t listening to the coach. They only have two leaders on the team. This is a shambles. It sounds exactly like the end of 2009.

Stumbling into an eight or nine-win season and maybe making the playoffs simply because the NFL ridiculously added a seventh seed and teams like the Packers blow games against bad opponents shouldn’t mask anything. If they win a couple of games to end the season, what difference will it make?

It’s time.

It’s time for Jody Allen and Bert Kolde to have a polite conversation in the off-season and do what is best for this team. They have a responsibility as custodians to do this, otherwise the accusations of a lack of accountability will be turned their way. We’ve all been around sport long enough that when you start hearing what we heard on the radio from people who are connected to the team, you don’t recover from this.

They need a bigger reset than a coach who is 72 with only two seasons left on his deal (career?) can oversee. They need a new voice, new messaging, new schemes, new ideas, new leadership.

They need change at the top, they need to draft a quarterback and they need to plan what the next era of Seahawks football is going to look like.

What was described on the radio today is a mess.

It comes down to this. Carroll is contracted to 2025. Based on what we heard on the radio, what are the chances this team wins a Super Bowl between now and then? I’d say no chance. Zilch. Thus, why wait? Make the change now and set yourselves on the path to actually trying to get there. Don’t squander two more years for the sake of it, potentially witnessing Carroll sour his legacy even further.

If he can’t get the players to listen, if they don’t ‘give a damn’, if they have no leadership or identity after everything they’ve done to this roster — it’s time.

It’s just time.

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With the way Pete Carroll spoke on Monday, changes are coming. These will include short-term personnel moves for the Eagles game but more importantly — we’re likely to see changes in the off-season.

Make no mistake, a mini-reset is coming. Over The Cap is showing the Seahawks to have only $3m in available cap space for 2024, meaning they are $9.5m in the red when it comes to effective cap space. This has changed because OTC has adjusted their projection for the size of the salary cap next year. They now think it’ll be around $242m rather than $255m.

Cuts are inevitable and avoidable. Big ones. It also means some players are going to be leaving and replaced in a more cost-effective manner.

They really did go all-in for this season. That’s something I don’t think is being acknowledged enough within the media and fanbase. This was a very aggressive year for the Seahawks. It speaks to the timeframe they’re working towards (ageing coach who needs to win now) and the way they’ve misjudged where they’re at as a roster (thinking they’re good enough to use a second round pick on a 10-game rental).

The 2024 season is going to require a shift because the performance hasn’t been good enough this year and they have to create money.

This is a key reason why I think they’re going to aggressively pursue a quarterback in the draft. It’s an easy way to save money. Cutting Geno Smith creates cap space and they can replace him with a rookie contract. They’ll use the move to generate excitement and energy that is badly lacking. We better hope it works out, especially if they mortgage the future to trade into the top-five.

Jamal Adams will be gone and could easily be replaced by Coby Bryant or someone else cheap. I wonder if, rather than cut Quandre Diggs, they do something to lower his incredible $21m cap hit. Cutting him is an option though. Either way, big changes are coming and I’m not sure people realise how ruthless they’re going to need to be. The cap situation is quite ugly.

A defense highlighted by Adams, Diggs and Bobby Wagner isn’t going to be on the field in 2024.

A move for a rookie quarterback would likely involve future picks rather than current picks, because they have too many holes to fill on the cheap. They’re currently picking 13th with four games to go. Packaging that selection with two future first rounders could get them into the top-five, where they’d need to be to get one of the best quarterbacks.

There’s a lot to work out here still. Is Quinn Ewers going to declare, for example? Increasingly the buzz is moving away from Drake Maye (who was always a bit overrated) and towards Jayden Daniels — who increasingly feels like he could be QB2. It’s also possible the Seahawks don’t feel obliged to move up, with a Ewers type maybe lasting into range — or they could value a Spencer Rattler or Michael Penix Jr.

Regardless, replacing Wagner is going to be necessary. It’s not that he’s awful these days. He just can’t cover. His movement skills have eroded with age. What he does well (run defense) is not as important as the area where he’s being exploited (coverage).

I highlighted some possible middle/late round coverage linebackers last week — Steele Chambers (Ohio State), Cedric Gray (North Carolina) and Tatum Bethune (Florida State). For me, though, there’s a prize asset I want to focus on.

I’ve moved NC State’s Payton Wilson into the first round range on my horizontal board. I’ve done this with a red ‘injury’ mark because there are issues here. He suffered a torn ACL in high school then had another knee injury as a true freshman in college. He had surgery on both shoulders before his junior season yet still suffered a season-ending shoulder injury when the games began.

He chose not to declare a year ago because the league voiced concerns over his availability:

“I was hearing from other guys that I could go anywhere from the third round to undrafted or that some teams might not even look at me because of my injuries.”

If the NFL wanted to see him stay healthy for back-to-back years, he achieved that. Yet it remains to be seen what the medicals will say come combine time.

It’s a shame because I’m convinced without the injury flags, he’d be a lock to be a top-20 pick.

Wilson is everything the Seahawks need at linebacker.

His coverage skills are exceptional. He had a 90.4 coverage grade per PFF this year, fifth most among qualifying linebackers playing +50% of snaps. He was targeted 37 times, giving up only 64.9% completions — the 11th best mark in college. He had three interceptions at linebacker in 2023 and he has seven for his career at NC State.

In comparison, Wagner’s coverage grade is 59.6 this year and he’s giving up 80.4% completions on 51 targets. It’s not as bad as Jordyn Brooks, though, who’s giving up 85% completions on 60 targets. There might be a scheme issue here on top of performance.

Missed tackles have been too big an issue for Seattle in recent years. Wilson missed only 4.7% of his tackles in 2023, the sixth lowest percentage in college.

He’s more than just a linebacker. His athletic qualities enable him to threaten opponents in many different ways. Wilson recorded 22 pressures in 2023, six sacks, seven QB hits and nine hurries. He had 490 snaps as an orthodox linebacker, 174 as an outside rusher and 44 covering in the slot. Whisper it quietly but he could be a poor man’s Micah Parsons.

What’s his attitude and approach on the field? Crazed. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a better motor. Look at this:

ATTENTION ALL CFB PLAYERS: If you want to get noticed by NFL scouts, play with type of relentless effort shown here by NC State’s Payton Wilson.

All strain. No give up.

This is an ILB hawking down a WR. 👀 pic.twitter.com/UUktM6dL5W

— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) September 10, 2023

Wilson flies to the football, never gives up on plays and the incredible thing is he has the athletic profile to constantly get to the ball-carrier. The tape backs up the stats listed above. He can drop superbly and he is so fluent changing direction. His agility is impressive and he has light feet. He clearly has explosive traits to burst upfield and loves contact. He’s slippery to shed blocks and as a finisher, I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a linebacker as effective.

If you want someone who can truly elevate the energy, speed and physicality of your defense — leading by example and helping set the tone — while also showing greater ability to cover and make life harder for opponents, this is your guy.

Per Bruce Feldman’s freaks list:

A former standout lacrosse player and state champion wrestler, the 6-4, 235-pound senior is one of the best players in the country. He led the ACC in tackles in 2020, missed most of the 2021 season with a shoulder injury and then bounced back to make 82 tackles last season. Wilson has been clocked in the 40 at 4.49 and ran a 4.21 in the pro agility shuttle this offseason. He bench-pressed 390; vertical-jumped 35 1/2 inches and broad-jumped 9-8 1/2.

Here’s what NC State Head Coach Dave Doeren said about Wilson:

“He’s a stud. All the accolades he’s getting are so deserved. He’s earned them. And, boy, has he suffered to earn them – physically and the emotions of not playing as many times as he’s had to watch. Some players can watch a game and have fun. They’re dancing to music. For him, it’s depressing to watch a game. He wants to be on the field. I’m so happy for him and I’m enjoying watching him too. I’m definitely taking it in, because I know he is a generational player.”

Wilson is without question one of my favourite players in the draft. Without the health concerns, he would be a high first rounder. It’s a shame, actually, that two players I love — Wilson and Michigan guard Zak Zinter — both have injury concerns. I’ll warn you that I’m going to spend a lot of the off-season talking about both and I won’t criticise the Seahawks if they roll the dice on Wilson’s shoulders and Zinter’s broken leg. They are, for many reasons, exactly what they need at their respective positions.

If the injuries really do knock Wilson into the third-round range, I’ll be stunned. If he and Zinter are there in round three for Seattle’s two picks — although it’s early, count me in for that health gamble. Paired with finding a way to come out of round one with a quarterback, that would feel like a job well done.

If you missed my spot on KJR yesterday, check it out here:

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I was invited onto KJR today to talk Seahawks with Puck & Jim. Please check it out below using the Apple Podcast embed (or click her for the website version).

There is a way to beat the San Francisco 49ers. There has to be. They’ve lost three games this year. Despite all of the success under Kyle Shanahan, they’re yet to win a Super Bowl.

The way to beat them isn’t by giving up 9.9 yards per play. That is what the Seahawks ‘achieved’ on Sunday. Think about that. On average, the 49ers got a first down for every snap they took on offense.

As we’ve continued to highlight as the Seahawks plummet down the DVOA defensive rankings (they were 24th, they’ll surely drop again after this), this defense cost a fortune. The three second-round picks on edge rushers. The big money spent on Dre’Mont Jones, plus the return of Jarran Reed. The first round pick at linebacker, plus the re-signing of Bobby Wagner. A top-five pick at cornerback. Two safeties who cost a king’s ransom in salary, with one also costing a treasure-trove of picks.

Then, to cap things off, a future second rounder spent on a 10-game rental at defensive tackle.

The amount of resource used on the defense is virtually unmatched in the NFL. Yet against a common opponent who they play at least twice a year, they gave up 10-yards per play today.

That’s despite, by the way, the Head Coach admitting that San Francisco just played their normal game. There was nothing new. “They just executed better.”

This is where we are. The Seahawks know that in order to win the NFC West, they have to top the 49ers. Presumably they invest considerable time planning to beat them, with some of their roster moves designed to gain an upper-hand against divisional opponents.

They’ve spent so much to build a defense that isn’t just incapable of limiting the 49ers, they actually gave up 9.9 yards per snap.

The end result is the Seahawks have now been swept by the 49ers and Rams. They officially can’t win the NFC West this year. They’ve won one division title in seven years and as Field Gulls notes, it’s the worst stretch the Seahawks have had since returning to the division in 2002.

This all comes off the back of a shocking week, where Jamal Adams embarrassed himself (and the franchise) internationally. Having doubled down on his appalling actions last week, his follow-up was to give up some explosive plays in San Francisco. At one point ‘Yikes’ was trending on Twitter/X. He’s made the world root against him and thus, the Seahawks. Quite an achievement for $17.6m a year.

His partner in crime, Quandre Diggs, spends considerable time defending himself online. Whether it’s Madden ratings, PFF or a rogue pundit or two, he’s never short of a few words. Yet PFF’s 78th ranked safety (at least for now) was also guilty of a bad angle on one touchdown and nearly lost his cleats on a superb move by Deebo Samuel in another near-score.

The pair are becoming poster boys for all that is wrong in Seattle. Expensive, over-hyped, lacking in self-awareness.

They’re on the books next year for a combined $48.1m in cap money. How has that happened? When will the question be asked about how the team came to be in that position? It doesn’t matter if there are ways and means to save money by cutting both, that will come with consequences. At a minimum, even if you cut both players, $20.6m of your cap next year will be spent for them to go away.

Guess what? Myles Garrett’s cap hit next year is $20.1m. It’ll cost you more to cut Diggs and Adams and move on.

It’s high time someone in Seattle was quizzed on that fact. Furthermore, the Adams trade deserves greater scrutiny. Particularly given the week he’s just had. It’s been a disaster. An unmitigated disaster.

It’d be wrong just to focus on the two safeties though. Or, for that matter, the ageing legs of Bobby Wagner, the way Seattle just looked so slow and ponderous on defense once Devon Witherspoon left the field, the struggle to properly maximise the weapons on offense or other such trivialities. It’s Pete. That’s where the focus lies.

He’s had two go’s now at resetting the team. He fired both coordinators after 2017, moved on several big name defenders and started again. Then he fired two more coordinators and further reset the roster after the Russell Wilson trade.

The Seahawks are drifting further away from their main rivals (now 0-5 vs the 49ers and McVay’s had their number for years), they have no true identity, the defense has been bad for a number of years (consistently ranking in the 20’s per DVOA — an analytical system Carroll values and often cites), the offense does not resemble the vision he talks about (why spend two second round picks on running backs to not run the ball that much?) and off the field we’ve had unsavoury moments like last week with seemingly very little remorse from the culprit or repercussions from the team.

The roster isn’t young, as some claim. It has young players like all teams. Yet it has a veteran quarterback, veteran players dotted all over the offense and defense. It’s an expensive roster, in terms of players and picks. Yet the results are mediocre at best.

What, exactly, is the benefit of having Pete Carroll as the Seahawks coach at the moment?

I’m not trying to be tricky here. Can someone explain to me what the benefit is?

Right now I’m looking at a NFC West with two fantastic offensive minded coaches who are 4-0 against Carroll. I’m seeing one playoff win in six years, possibly extending to seven in a few weeks. I see little to be encouraged about in terms of scheming, results or development.

Increasingly I’m looking at a record where Carroll was 15-19 before Russell Wilson, 113-60-1 with Wilson and 15-16 since trading him. In other words, 30-35 when Carroll doesn’t have the peak LOB defense and Marshawn Lynch or Wilson’s best years.

Is another round of coordinator changes going to make any difference? If the Seahawks have to move on from Wagner, Adams and Diggs in the off-season, while potentially losing free agents Leonard Williams and Jordyn Brooks, is another reset of sorts on the cards? How many of these does Carroll get?

And if, as former NFL GM Randy Mueller suggested this week, bigger changes are required and aren’t aligned to the timeframe of a 72-year-old coach who needs to win now, isn’t it time to consider what, to many, was once considered unthinkable?

The Seahawks are not close. They are not getting closer.

John Middlekauff noted in his reaction of today’s game:

“Don’t things run their course? Andy Reid once got fired in Philadelphia. Things just end. I watched Pete Carroll today and he has no answers, he’s had an incredible run, he resurrected the franchise, he gave them a competitiveness that they’ve not had. But it’s over.”

My fear is that what will actually happen is even more aggression in the off-season, with long-term planning thrown to the wolves in the desperation to rapidly improve with Carroll’s contract running out in 2025. The chances of such a situation working out are remote, unless you’re bringing in Tom Brady and his entourage as Tampa Bay did a few years ago.

I think Carroll, when he watches back the TV copy of the Niners game, will see that graphic Fox showed with Seattle’s record against the 49ers with Wilson and how they’re winless without him. I imagine him thinking about Jayden Daniels (for example) making the miraculous happen just as Wilson did and they’ll trade the farm to get him. Who knows how that works out but at least everyone will be excited, right up until the point the same issues keep emerging because the Seahawks are so schematically uncultured compared to their main NFC West foes.

Broader thinking is required. How do you top the 49ers and Rams? Probably by attacking them offensively in the way they so readily attack you and making the most of your weapons instead of struggling to maximise their talent. Probably by giving them something new to think about defensively, with younger and faster personnel working within the system. Probably by getting the future at quarterback in place and pairing him with your own version of Shanahan and McVay, whoever that may be, rather than relying on the man Carroll decides will be offensive coordinator next year.

In trying to achieve all of this, you might fail. But failure feels inevitable if we don’t change.

It’s time for a broader discussion to occur online and on-air about what’s best for the Seahawks.

Oh, by the way, the Seahawks currently have the #13 overall pick (the pick they’re sending to the Giants, at the moment, is #44).

And if you missed our post-game stream check it out here:

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks are losing their grip on this season. Any chance of a shot at the NFC West title will be determined Sunday. If they cannot pull off the upset, it is over. They will be four games behind San Francisco with four games left to play in the season, with the Niners holding the tiebreaker by virtue of a sweep.

At this point, even a wildcard spot seems an optimistic projection. For that to be a reality, the Seahawks will need to put in a far better game than they did two weeks ago. Even in a losing effort, this team can instill some hope that this season is somewhat salvageable.

With the two games against the same opponent so close, there is no reason to do a full Watch Points write up. You can read what I wrote here since those points were as vital as any to the outcome of the game.

What was particularly frustrating, is the Seahawks even turn in a middle of the road performance in these categories in Week 12 and this game is far more competitive.

Play Solid, Fundamental Football
Limit the Number of Explosive Runs by the Niners (especially McCaffrey)

This concern sealed their fate as much as any. Pete Carroll came out and said they did not practice the guys hard enough in the leadup to this game, and you could absolutely see it. How does a 10+ year coach not have a handle on his team and understand the mechanics of preparation for a Thursday game?

The offense completely wasted a short field on their first possession and it went downhill from there. Once again, they focused heavily on the pass. I wrote why that was a mistake:

Abandoning the ground game in favor of the pass will give the Niner defense all the opportunities they need to make this game easy for them.

And so it was.

Geno Smith was sacked six times, Michael Dickson had a five-punt night and the Seahawks lost the time of possession battle by 11 minutes, which did the defense no favors.

And neither did the defense do themselves any favors. The tackling was atrocious.

Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey force you to bring them down. A mauling of the Giants in Week Three featured these three racking up seven broken tackles. They challenged the Giants defense to take them down and they couldn’t.

Can the Seahawks?

They could not.

The Niners had six explosive runs and two more runs that might as well have been explosive.

McCaffrey’s eight-yard touchdown run was a perfect encapsulation of the night:

NO ONE DOES IT LIKE CMC.

📺: #SFvsSEA on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/N5H8Nc0xKc pic.twitter.com/UXEcjJYzRo

— NFL (@NFL) November 24, 2023

He was bottled up at about the 12, changed course and found a couple of yards of daylight, was contacted at the eight and simply fought his way into the end zone, taking Quandre Diggs along for the ride.

Jason Myers missed a very makeable field goal try at the end of the half that would have given them some momentum.

Limit Turnovers and Take the Ball Away from Them

They lost the turnover battle 2-1.

Geno Smith threw one interception but had several of his now-infamous ‘turnover worthy plays’ with poor decision-making.

Deejay Dallas muffed a punt and decided to try and pick the ball up to run with it instead of simply falling on it. It did not work.

Think of this – yes, the Niners were outplaying the Seahawks. But Dallas does not have that turnover, San Francisco does not get a field goal to take a 24-3 lead. The Seahawks have the same drive and Myers makes his field goal try and now it is 21-6 at the half. The exact same third quarter we saw would end with it being 21-16.

As poorly as the team played, without a couple of those key plays they are far closer in this game than they actually were.

*****

This game may actually be the true pivot point of the season and perhaps future seasons.
A loss means that for the first time in Pete Carroll’s Seahawks history, they will have lost four games in a row. Based on the way they are losing – with coaching mistakes aplenty – it could and should trigger a full review of his job status going forward.

Compound that with this week’s media disaster involving Jamal Adams, there is a troublesome black cloud of fog that is hovering around this team.

Geno Smith is a gametime decision. There are myriad of ways this could play out. He could play, and play well. He could play and play poorly. The same could be said for Drew Lock. There could be far-reaching implications for the rest of the season and into 2024 based on the outcome of this game. How?

A couple of Geno Smith 2024 contract notes to keep in mind: most of his escalators are now out of reach, save for one: win 10 games or reach the playoffs with Geno playing 80% of the team’s snaps. He has played every snap except a few in the Giants game and a few in the Rams game. Basically, he will need to play every snap in this game and the next game against the Eagles to reach the 80% threshold.

If Geno Smith ends the season on Injured Reserve, that guarantees his $12.7 million 2024 salary. It is only guaranteed for injury. Obviously, Geno finishing the season in a way that he can pass a physical gives the Seahawks more options in 2024.

It should’ve been done years ago.

How long have we been talking about it? The need to transfer resources and spending from positions like safety and linebacker to the trenches.

I’ve written articles, conducted streams and even gone on 710 Seattle Sports multiple times with Jake Heaps to make the point.

If you want to play a brand of football that is physical, tough, runs the ball effectively and exerts your will on the opponent — you have to dedicate resources to the offensive and defensive lines.

It’s not that the Seahawks have completely gone against this. Back when these points were starting to be made, they were trotting out Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin as their best pass rushers. They were cobbling together O-lines. Meanwhile, they were making franchise-altering trades for safeties.

They’ve thankfully adjusted their approach since. They’ve used a top-10 pick on a left tackle, while adding a terrific right tackle book-end. They’ve spent two high picks on edge rushers, splashed out on Dre’Mont Jones and made a very aggressive trade for Leonard Williams. They have to make sure they retain Williams to avoid that deal being an egregious disaster (renting a player then going on an epic losing run is a horrendous look, not to mention a complete misjudgement on where they were in order to initiate such a trade). The point is, changes have occurred and they’ve started to take the trenches more seriously.

They need to go a step further though.

One of the consistent lines we’ve covered here (and rightly so) is the fact Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams are set to take up $48.1m in cap space next year. How has that ever been allowed to happen? Given their performance and, in the case of Adams, behaviour — they need to write-off these deals as soon as possible in the off-season.

The money they can salvage, $27.5m in cap space for 2024, should be used to help the trenches — starting with keeping Williams in Seattle.

It goes further than this though. The Seahawks used a first round pick on linebacker Jordyn Brooks and are paying Bobby Wagner $7m this year. Other teams are not investing this much on a position that, like safety, is almost at running back value level on defense. They shouldn’t be looking to give Brooks a bit extension. They shouldn’t be looking to retain Wagner, given his weakness in coverage that is being readily exploited.

Instead, the Seahawks should be seeking to put as much investment in the two lines while finding cost-effective individuals who can play fast and physical at linebacker and safety. That could lead to some mistakes, some rawness. They might not have pro-bowl level talent at either position. So what? The players currently playing in those roles are hardly error-free. None of the four are among the top candidates for the Pro-Bowl, published by the league this week. They’re just expensive and underachieving. You might as well have that at a fraction of the cost.

You’d also hope if you become a better trenches team, it would aid the players you have playing at linebacker and safety.

The personnel priorities for the Seahawks in the off-season, whatever happens the rest of the way, should be:

1. Draft a young quarterback

2. Shift resource from linebacker and safety to the trenches

That has to be the plan.

Of course, they could go even further. It says it all when even the media are going to inconvenient places, such as former NFL GM Randy Mueller in the Athletic recently:

To me, the Seahawks have been a .500 team in recent years — staying the course and retooling as much as possible, but making minimal attempts at bigger swings. I understand the thinking, but adding linebackers and safeties does not constitute a full swing at the plate. Neither is an impact position. The Seahawks need impact players, which might require a change of philosophy.

You have an older coach who probably does not want to take a deep rebuild dive, especially at quarterback, the most important position. But the Seahawks are going to need to go there to regain elite status.

Seattle might have to take a step back to take two forward. I’m not sure 72-year-old Pete Carroll is up for that and the two years it might take to retool this roster to return to the highest level. The Seahawks might need to purge some of their roster to clear cap space to add impact at key positions.

The numbers show that the balance of 2023 is going to be an uphill battle. Their three-game losing streak could become four or five with the 49ers and Eagles up next. At 1-3 in the division and having been swept by the Rams, their realistic competition in the NFC West is Arizona, which has already embarked on a full rebuild. The Seahawks might be one year behind the Cardinals already. That’s concerning.

Mueller is only saying what needs to be said. He’s absolutely correct in his two critical assessments of the franchise. Firstly, that they need a longer term plan than the Carroll timescale permits. They are doing what they did in the prior reset. They’re band-aiding positions aggressively to try and complete a roster, that isn’t capable of being the contender they desire — purely because Carroll is running out of time.

Thus, Carroll is not the man for the moment. The Seahawks are working to his watch. He is close to the end of his career and they’re acting like it’s a race against the clock. It isn’t. I don’t agree that the Cardinals are ahead in any way but it’s true that Seattle is currently third in a four-horse race within the division and what is badly needed right now is a shift in the overall plan on how to get back to the top. They are not close and it needs a different person making the key decisions in order to realise this and do what is necessary on and off the field. There’s a distinct possibility we’re just going to waste two more seasons here, all for the benefit of Pete Carroll bleeding the last remnants of his Seahawks career dry.

Mueller is also correct that the Seahawks have felt like a .500 team for a long time. Not always in terms of results (Russell Wilson did a great job for a while ensuring they were above .500 consistently) but they haven’t felt like a serious playoff threat. The results — one playoff win in six years (soon to be seven, it’s safe to assume) — back that up.

The reality is, as we’ve noted a lot recently, Carroll was 15-19 before drafting Wilson and he’s 15-15 since trading him. That’s not to say Wilson was solely responsible for the success. The LOB defense and Marshawn Lynch were the main players initially — yet as time went on, Wilson was the Seahawks. Now, without a great defense or a difference maker at quarterback, Carroll can’t elevate his team beyond simply being very average. The win/loss record proves that.

Mueller is also right to point out, as we have done, the investment at safety and linebacker compared to other impact positions — and the need to shift resource to other areas.

So how do they do this?

They currently own the #15 overall pick in the draft. Realistically, they could be up to #12 by Sunday night. In what could end up being a three-quarterback first round depending on who declares, they’re going to need to move up if they want one of the top players in the class.

Although I had the Seahawks trading up for Quinn Ewers in my first mock draft, if he doesn’t declare — I do think they could/should have interest in moving up for Jayden Daniels. He ticks a lot of boxes for them. He has a great deep-ball and can make explosive plays downfield. His scrambling and ability as a runner would add an X-factor they don’t currently have.

He’s an experienced college passer, with 55 starts at Arizona State and LSU. To emphasise how good he is throwing downfield, he’s completed 62.6% of his passes of +10 yards — with 29 touchdowns and one interception on those throws. He was fourth in college football for big time throws (29) but his big time throw percentage (the number of throws that lead to big throws) was 8.4% — also fourth highest in the NCAA but crucially higher than any of the other big name draft prospects (Drake Maye 7.5%, Michael Penix Jr 6.7%, Caleb Williams 6.2%, JJ McCarthy 6.1%, Bo Nix 4.2%, Quinn Ewers 3.5%, Spencer Rattler 2.6%).

He only threw seven turnover worthy passes (1.6%) and his adjusted completion rate is a lofty 79.9%.

Basically, he has increasingly shown that he can make good decisions and protect the football while simultaneously being a highly explosive, productive, accurate passer who is a dynamic playmaker. That is basically what Russell Wilson was for the Seahawks. It’s what Carroll might need if he’s ever going to see a serious winner again in Seattle.

Assuming Carroll doesn’t depart at the end of the year, Daniels’ production and high number of college starts could be viewed as setting him up to start quickly. The only issue is, there’s likely to be red-hot interest in him. Don’t be surprised if very early in the off-season we see a team trade into the top-three picks, knowing they can guarantee one of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels — and don’t be surprised if Daniels ends up being QB2 when all is said and done.

After that though, the focus should be on the trenches.

Diverting money from safety to Leonard Williams should be the first priority, given what they’ve invested in him. Williams is also the kind of character/leader they need in the locker room. They need more Leonard Williams’ and fewer Jamal Adams’.

Jordyn Brooks should be allowed to test the market and only re-signed if the value comes back to the Seahawks. Ditto Damien Lewis. The Seahawks shouldn’t be pushing the boat out for PFF’s 48th ranked linebacker and 35th ranked guard. If they are kept, fine. But it should be on your terms and not for big money.

The last few weeks of this season should be used to celebrate Bobby Wagner because unfortunately, this has to be the last dance. The Seahawks need someone who can drop into coverage in a way he no longer can. They can no longer give Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay an easy way to attack the defense.

NC State’s Payton Wilson is an excellent cover-linebacker with the attitude, professionalism, aggression and intensity they crave. He would be a tremendous fit but his injury history would need to be checked out. Sadly, without a second round pick, he might be out of reach. Their challenge should be to find someone later on who can fill a role in coverage. Steele Chambers (Ohio State), Cedric Gray (North Carolina), Tatum Bethune (Florida State) — players of that ilk. They don’t need to spend a high pick. If you’re focusing on the trenches and shifting money, they just need someone who can play fast and aggressive with the ability to drop.

At guard, it’d be great to see them make an investment at the position if possible. Robert Hunt was a blog favourite back in the day. He’s come on leaps and bounds in Miami and would be an excellent, proven addition to the O-line. I’m not completely opposed to bringing back Lewis either, it needs to be for the right money though.

One player I would personally describe as a ‘must have’ is Zak Zinter from Michigan. He broke his tib and fib against Ohio State and is going to be out for a while as a consequence. It’s a scary injury and there’s no guarantee he’ll make a full recovery. However, the more I watched of Zinter — the more I came to the conclusion he’s one of the best guards I’ve scouted since starting this blog.

He has great size and length with +33 inch arms. He plays how you’d expect from a Michigan lineman, with great toughness and physicality. He might be the best pulling guard I’ve watched, given how he runs into space and consistently hits the target. He can move off blocks and re-adjust easily. He can ‘throw defenders out of the club’ at the point of attack before they even engage, he steers openings in the run game and when he locks on he can control blocks with ease.

When you watch a good interior lineman on tape it’s tremendous fun and I’ve enjoyed watching Zinter more than most in this draft cycle.

Provided you can get a decent medical check in before April (which is extremely plausible) I wouldn’t want to leave the draft without him. If you have to redshirt him, fine. If he makes a full recovery, Zinter has a chance to be a 10-year pro in the league. If he wasn’t hurt, he’d be a sure-fire top-50 pick. If it wasn’t for the rampant quarterback need, there isn’t a spot in the draft I would be opposed to the Seahawks investing in Zinter if the medicals are OK.

There are good centers available too. Sedrick Van Pran at Georgia, Charles Turner at LSU, Jackson Powers-Johnson at Oregon, Graham Barton at Duke converting from left tackle. I suspect, sadly, all will be gone before Seattle has a chance to select one of them.

It’s a shame, frankly, the Seahawks don’t have more picks. The quarterbacks, Zak Zinter, Payton Wilson, McKinley Jackson, a decent crop of centers. Regardless, they need to spend their money and picks in the right areas going forward. Quarterback, O-line, D-line. It’s time to cease squandering money at safety and linebacker and get things back on track.

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