The Seahawks are not a bad football team, despite what we saw in Baltimore on Sunday. They just aren’t a contender either.

They are a young, developing roster in the second year of a rebuild.

There’s absolutely nothing wrong with that. It’s where they should be. They’ve had a couple of really good drafts and were trending in the right direction. They’re not close to being a Super Bowl team though. Not close at all based on Sunday, where Baltimore were superior in every facet and embarrassed the Seahawks.

Yet a couple of unpredictable events got this team carried away, believing they were something they weren’t.

The first event was the 49ers going on a three-game losing streak. Until that point, they looked like NFC West winners-elect. I suspect, with their assortment of blue-chip players and a coach capable of being offensively brilliant, they may well return to the status of one of the NFC’s most feared teams in due course.

Nevertheless, the unexpected Niner slump suddenly plonked the Seahawks at the top of the NFC West standings.

They only got there, though, thanks to the second event. A header from Jamal Adams. The performance against Cleveland was awful. They couldn’t do anything well in the second half. That uniquely weird and fortuitous moment where Adams headed it to Julian Love changed the game. It gave Seattle a short-field and they capitalised. Instead of being 4-3 and having serious questions to answer about a poor performance, they were now ahead of the 49ers in the standings at 5-2.

Adding to this is the reality of the schedule. After the Cleveland game, the Seahawks had officially played the third easiest schedule so far. From Baltimore onwards, they were set to face the toughest schedule. It was about to get a lot harder, as we saw on Sunday when reality started to bite.

The Seahawks got carried away and made a huge splashy trade they really had no business making. It’s been exposed for all to see that they’re not ‘one player away’. Leonard Williams faces the impossible task of justifying giving up a second round pick for his services in the next nine games. It’s hard to imagine how he could possibly pull it off. He’s a good player but he’s not an outstanding player — either as a run defender or pass rusher. He’s a useful addition, not a game-changer.

Had the Seahawks been more restrained he would’ve been a nice option as a free agent at the end of the season, with the second rounder still intact. Instead, while chasing a misguided contending position, they’ll now have to compete for Williams as a free agent minus that crucial second rounder. All this for ten games when we can clearly see this isn’t a Super Bowl team.

Some are already wafting away any concern about the trade. ‘The Seahawks used a second round pick on Dee Eskridge so it doesn’t matter’ someone tweeted to me on Sunday. As if wasting one second rounder is justification for repeating the act. Not to mention that some of Seattle’s legendary picks in the Carroll/Schneider era have been day two selections.

Even more people are assuming they’ll just extend Williams’ contract and everything will be fine. As we explained on Wednesday, it isn’t that simple. The Seahawks have spent their cap money for next year already. The only way to keep Williams is to cut others — and that means from the highly paid Geno Smith, Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams trio. Otherwise, there simply won’t be enough to spend on Williams, Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks or any of the other names on a long list of free agents who’ll need to be re-signed or replaced.

This was an ultra-aggressive move in line with the ‘F those picks’ mentality of the Rams. Except they aren’t the 2021 Rams. They are the 2023 Seahawks, in year two of a rebuild.

Now, when they should be putting together a plan for stage three, they’ve already used the cap space and their second biggest 2024 asset by the start of November.

This is why some of us continue to scrutinise the decision making in Seattle. After two years of restraint and careful management with the draft, they’ve resorted to old (bad) habits by frittering away resources.

Further to that, someone asked this question in the post-game live stream. What is Seattle’s identity on either side of the ball?

They don’t run the ball consistently well. They don’t feature any of their star players enough for any of them to be the identity. Geno Smith isn’t playing well enough to be the face of the offense and his passer rating is down to 86.4, similar to Deshaun Watson’s and Desmond Ridder’s. That’s the kind of statistical company he’s keeping now, not to mention the eight turnovers in four games.

At the moment if you had to describe Seattle’s offense you’d say ‘streaky’. Given the way it hasn’t functioned in certain games, it’s almost generous to settle on ‘streaky’.

With the defense there are more positive signs and it’s possible Devin Witherspoon will become the identity — or his physical brand of football will. Yet it feels like they’re still a collection of young players figuring things out rather than necessarily being a unit on the brink of a catchy new nickname, where fans of other teams can point to a scary aspect of their play.

Let’s also be honest, look who they’ve played. The hopeless Giants, Cardinals and Panthers. A Browns team missing its quarterback and star runner. They couldn’t stop the Rams or the Ravens. The only really impressive display came against Cincinnati. If the game on Sunday is any indication, we might feel differently about this unit in a month as they tick off harder opponents.

They’ve talked in the past about being the bully. Not on this evidence. They got punched in the mouth over and over again by the Ravens.

What do the Seahawks do better than anyone else on either side of the ball? It’s hard to pinpoint anything. Thus, how could they feel this was the time to make an aggressive move?

Mike Tanner noted the following after the Ravens debacle:

“The Seahawks are good enough to scratch out late-game wins over the Lions or Browns and earn a Wild-Card berth. They aren’t good enough to beat a Super Bowl contender that’s playing to its capabilities.

The problem becomes obvious when you study the Seahawks roster. Their best overall players are the just-acquired Leonard Williams and one-foot-in-Canton Bobby Wagner. Who can the Seahawks turn to when they need to turn a game around? Geno? The 31-year old version of Tyler Lockett? Jamal Adams? A Super Bowl team needs two or three take-over-the-game type players. The division-rival 49ers have five or six. The Seahawks may have zero.”

There are key questions that need answering:

— Are the coordinators currently employed the right men for the job? Shane Waldron continues to get very little out of an offense that is littered with dynamic skill players. The offense was awful throughout against Baltimore, having stalled for long periods against LA, Cincinnati, New York, Carolina and Cleveland previously. Meanwhile — the defense has played well at times against bad opponents/quarterbacks. In their tougher games so far they’ve given up a lot. I’m not sure anyone can say with convinction that Clint Hurtt has won the benefit of the doubt yet. After all, they talked up the improvements with the run-defense and then promptly gave up 298 yards against Baltimore.

— Who is going to be the quarterback for the long term? It isn’t Geno Smith. That has surely been answered now? That doesn’t mean Drew Lock should start instead. It does mean that it’s time for us all to embrace that he’s nothing more than a short-term placeholder. A bridge to what’s next. For this franchise to reach the next level and get to where it wants to be, they need a better quarterback. They’re going to support Geno publicly and rightly so. Quarterback controversies are bad news, can split a locker room and create negative drama. Behind the scenes though, I hope they’re being honest about the need to find a better option for 2024 and beyond. It’s also a little frustrating to think they’ve been watching this version of Geno and still thought it’d be wise to start mortgaging the 2024 draft to chase success this year.

— Are the Seahawks prepared to be honest about expensive veterans? Geno Smith is due at least $33.2m next year if the Seahawks win nine games. That’s too much. Forget market rate. You’re either in possession of an elite QB earning an elite salary, or you need to be paying a cheap salary for a bridge or rookie. Having an average starter on tens of millions is a great way to be an average team, stuck in a rut. There’s always a 2022 Geno Smith or a 2023 Baker Mayfield to turn to if you’re shopping for the short-term. Meanwhile, Jamal Adams cannot be on the roster next year with a $26.9m cap hit. Ditto Quandre Diggs and his $21.2m cap hit. With only $6m in effective cap space to spend since ridding themselves of a second round draft pick salary, they need to clear-out some big, baggy contracts. Smith, Diggs and Adams cannot earn what they are due for the performances we’re seeing in 2023.

I’m sure you’ll have your own questions you wish to add. Regardless, a 37-3 hammering by a legit team has a tendency to expose warts. Last year the Seahawks started 6-3 and finished 9-8. I think this current team is nearer to that 9-8 team than they are a franchise who should be contemplating a massive trade before the deadline.

I hope it doesn’t cost them, especially in a draft that is thin for the most part but does have some attractive quarterback and interior O-line options.

While they got carried away after that Cleveland win to make the Williams deal, I also hope this result acts as a wake-up call. They aren’t ready to contend. They should still be protecting assets and continuing to build. Especially because those assets could be needed to find the next quarterback who will be required to truly reach the top again.

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Note — I’m doing the national broadcast of Cowboys vs Eagles so today’s live stream will take place on the conclusion of that game

Just some quick thoughts here until later…

The Seahawks spent a second round pick and change on Leonard Williams before the trade deadline, sensing an opportunity in the NFC and feeling good about life after beating the Browns.

Today, they received a big reality check.

The Ravens are a legit contender. The Seahawks do not. They look like a young team in year two of a reset, with remaining lingering questions needing to be answered. Which is perfectly acceptable, I’m just not sure they’re being honest with themselves about that.

We’ve already seen the offense fail to function for whole halves against the Rams, Bengals and Browns. They even had spells against the Panthers, Cardinals and Giants where they toiled and struggled.

It was more of the same today. Despite all the investment in weapons galore, the offense bore no threat to the Ravens. The offensive line struggled badly but nothing was done to adjust to the pressure. When the offense gets stuck in a rut, the Seahawks don’t have a go-to player or plan they turn to in order to get things moving. Everything just stops. That shouldn’t be acceptable with the array of skill players on the roster, with several costing a big salary or high picks.

Third downs? Awful again. Red zone? Awful again.

Josh Norris and Colt McCoy made a favourable video this week hailing Shane Waldron as a play-caller. Maybe I’m nowhere near as good at analysing football, that’s very plausible, but you could’ve fooled me if Waldron is one of the best play-callers in the NFL. I’m not seeing that at all.

Geno Smith continues to turn the ball over at a league-leading rate. We’ve talked about this so much now, we shouldn’t have to repeat it all the time. Since that hot start last season, Smith simply hasn’t played well enough. Too many turnovers. Too many turnover worthy plays. Not enough of the good-stuff to compensate.

We are getting an emphatic answer on whether he’s any more than a serviceable bridge. He isn’t. I just hope the team is embracing that internally and not kidding themselves that they don’t need a better solution to reach the place they want to get to.

The defense clung on for a bit — making occasional big plays to try and keep the team alive. They also got absolutely destroyed vs the run to the point of this having a ‘2010 Raiders game’ vibe.

None of this is Leonard Williams’ fault. Of course it isn’t. Yet when you use a second round pick for 10 games of his services, you can’t be this bad against the run. This is a big reason why I wasn’t excited about the trade. I like Williams as a player (although I think he’s three years removed from his peak). You need impact now, though. Otherwise you’re playing fast and loose with your assets. The assets that have been so good for you in the last two drafts run a risk of being squandered, as they have been in the past.

The Seahawks are 5-3. But for a Jamal Adams header last week, they’d probably be 4-4. They’re a decent, developing team who will need to find a better quarterback to reach the next level. They aren’t a serious contender on this evidence. They acted like they were this week, with that trade.

Given finding a quarterback upgrade could easily be the priority to everything, trading away draft picks feels slightly irresponsible after watching the game today.

A year ago they went from 6-3 to finish 9-8. With the toughest schedule in the NFL to finish the season, let’s hope something similar doesn’t happen again. Especially after being so bold at the trade deadline.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

No need to mince words.  The Ravens will be the toughest test the Seahawks have faced yet this season.

They might be the most complete team in the NFL.  They currently field the #1 scoring defense, the #3 rushing defense and they lead the NFL in sacks.  On offense?  The Ravens are the #7 scoring offense, featuring the #3 rushing offense.

It will take a complete effort on both sides of the ball to defeat them.  Mistakes must be kept to a minimum.

This team is talented, well-coached and has been able to put game plans together that dictate the pace they want to play at.  They frequently accomplish what Pete Carroll and the Seahawks set out to do:  Run the ball well, be opportunistic in the passing game, build an early lead and pressure the opposing offense into keeping up.  Then deploy a defense that smothers the running game and forces the offense into pass-rush friendly situations.

Here is a shocking stat to let you know just how well that formula is working:  In eight games this year, the Raven defense has been on the field while trailing for a grand total of 21 snaps.  Out of 532 defensive snaps, only 4% of them have been taken while the Ravens were trailing.  That is far and away the lowest number in the NFL.

They are the #1 defense in first quarter points allowed, and the #2 offense in first quarter points scored.

It gives them tremendous leverage over their opponents.  In all six of their wins this year, they have been leading at halftime.  This has allowed them the second-half option to either gear down and protect the lead by defending explosive plays and giving up simpler yards, or to load the box to either stop the run or unleash the blitzing hounds and not fear it burning them too badly.

Is there any good news to be had?  There is.

The Seahawks are right behind the Ravens by a sliver in first quarter scoring, sitting at #3 in the NFL.  Last week they ran up 17 points in the first quarter, and in the three previous weeks they scored a touchdown early on as well.  They will be Baltimore’s biggest test in this specific area.

If Seattle can control the tempo early on, it can disrupt the Raven formula like a grain of sand in a microchip.  They might not be able to be as aggressive on defense and must up their aggressiveness on offense – things they do not like to do.

Also, their defensive effectiveness drops off dramatically from the first half to the second.  Note the splits from Pro Football Reference:

Seven of their nine total touchdowns allowed came after halftime.

They allow a full yard per play more in the second half than the first, and a whopping two yards per play on rushes.  As offenses get more desperate, they throw the ball downfield further, and while they have taken more sacks, they have gained twice as many first downs as in the first half.

So, we think of this game as a real test for the Seahawks.  But it will be a test for the Ravens as well.  If the Seahawks are doing their job, Baltimore may be put in situations they are unaccustomed to.  Having to play and come from behind may force mistakes and otherwise open opportunities for the Seahawks to exploit.

How the Ravens respond – and how the Seahawks then adjust – may decide the game.

The other piece of good news is: The Ravens are not infallible.  They have lost to the Colts and the Steelers this year – who, with all due respect, are no world-beaters – and had a bit of stress in putting away the stubborn 1-6 Cardinals last week.

All three used a similar game pattern that proved effective, and the Seahawks would be well-advised to absorb some of their wisdom into the game plan this week.  What made them so successful against the Ravens?

Be Special on Special Teams

Before we discuss what the three teams did, we need to highlight where the Ravens stand in this area.  I talked about the offense and defense being absolutely fantastic, but ironically, they are very average on Special Teams – a John Harbaugh staple for years – and it has cost them at times.

Kicker Justin Tucker, probably the greatest kicker in NFL history, is perfect on field goal tries from 50 yards in, but in the all-important 50+ yard category?  He is 1 for 4.  True, one was a 59-yard try, the other a 61-yard try.  But neither of those would be near Tucker’s career-long (66 in case you are wondering).  The 61-yarder would have won them the Colts game.  Instead, they went to overtime and the Colts prevailed.  And he did miss a 53-yard try against the Bengals that could have cost them if the defense had not held up.

They have also made mistakes and allowed teams to make significant gains in key Special Teams areas.

How did Indianapolis win the Special Teams battle in their game against Baltimore?  Matt Gay was a perfect 5 for 5 in field goal tries, including nailing 3 from 53 yards, and a fourth from 54.  That is absolutely clutch.  Isaiah McKenzie also aided them with a 32-yard punt return.

How about the Steelers?  Chris Boswell was a perfect 3 for 3 on field goal tries, and then Miles Killebrew blocked a punt which just missed being a touchdown but resulted in a safety.  On the resulting possession they kicked one of those field goals.

https://twitter.com/BaldyNFL/status/1711538465949573545

And Arizona?  Matt Prater kicked an onside kick late in the game that led to a 47-yard field goal and the Cardinals coming within a touchdown late, and nearly got another one as they tried it again.

https://twitter.com/NFLFrance/status/1718773569654546630

In a hard-fought game with a clock-grinding physical team like the Ravens, the difference could come down to special teams.

Jason Myers has been perfect in his last 3 games.  He did miss a 53-yard try in the Giants game, and they took advantage of the good field position to drive into the red zone, but Devon Witherspoon shut that down with his dramatic pick six.

If Myers is the difference, he must be up to the task.  As is Michael Dickson, the cover teams and the returners.

Win the Turnover Battle

This is another uncharacteristic area for the Ravens.  They currently stand at +1 for the season, with their heads barely above water.  They have only managed to lose the turnover battle but win the game once this year.

Against the Colts, Lamar Jackson was careless, getting strip sacked twice.  It cost them once.  They had another fumble lost in the passing game.  The Colts did not commit any turnovers and won that battle 2-0.

The Steelers won 3-1 in this area on the strength of an interception and a late-game T.J. Watt strip sack of Lamar Jackson to seal the win.

The Cardinals lost 2-0 on two Josh Dobbs interceptions that the Ravens converted to touchdowns.  They won by seven points.  Those turnovers were the ballgame.

Lamar Jackson leads the NFL in fumbles with 8.  Many of those are on strip sacks.  The Ravens surely are not happy with it, but when you have a quarterback as dynamic as him, it may simply be viewed as a cost they have to live with.

A related component of success: In the two losses and the Cardinals win, Jackson was sacked 4 times in each game.  Making him uncomfortable and killing drives is critical.

Jordyn Brooks had a strip sack of P.J. Walker last week.  Another one by someone on the defense would go a long, long way towards tilting the formula in the Seahawks’ favor.

Jackson also has 3 interceptions thrown, and the same value applies.  The Seahawks will gladly take an interception on jumping the route, taking advantage of a poor throw or a miscommunication, or a deflection off a player’s head.  Whatever it takes.

On the flip side, Geno Smith must tighten up his play.  We keep seeing highlight reels of him spinning perfect passes into tight windows, and they are amazing.  But somehow his turnover-worthy plays and his poor decisions only make the reels for the opponents.

The biggest component of this need might be managing the Raven pass rush, particularly the blitz.  They blitz a very average 24.9% of the time, right in the middle of the pack in the NFL, and shockingly their pressures are not very great, standing at #25 with only a 19.3% pressure rate so far this season.

So how are they leading the NFL in sacks?  One of the secrets lies in getting good pass rush in their standard packages.

The other is how they blitz.  They have blitzed 14 different players this year, and an incredible 13 different players have sacked the quarterback.  They can disguise it because it is coming from all over the field.

A third is once they get a quarterback in their grasp, they take him down.

Smith will need to be much sharper than he has been, in reading, recognizing and reducing his decision-making time to avoid strip sacks and interceptions.  He will also need to use his feet more readily, whether that is in climbing the pocket, or giving his receivers time to uncover as he did splendidly on plays like this last Sunday:

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1718727259152957599

Be Balanced on Offense and Do Not Stray from the Running Game

The last and perhaps most important factor in being competitive with the Ravens:  Those three teams all ran the ball liberally throughout the game.

Indianapolis ran out a 35/27 run/pass split in their win, Pittsburgh a 30/32 split in theirs, and Arizona had a 32/37 split in theirs for a 97/96 split over the three games.

They ran for 355 yards, a meager 3.65 yards per carry.  But they ran for 23 first downs, and Indy and Arizona won the time of possession game, while the Steelers were slightly behind dead even with the Ravens.

Currently, the Seahawks offense is running an average split of 24/33.  Their rushes per game rank at #21 in the NFL.

They need to take charge of the game by running the ball, even if it means we do not get to see a breathtaking Kenneth Walker explosion.

Balance is critical and it must be maintained against this extremely tough defense.  It accomplishes many good things:  it sets a tone, keeps from giving Geno Smith more than he can handle, it tires the defense out and gives the offensive lineman a chance to power forward instead of backpedaling in pass protection.

If you try to run out a lopsided split, the Ravens will punish you for it.  Let me give you an extreme example of this:  The Raven’s blowout win over the Lions in Week 7.

The Ravens took the kick, and the offense moved down the field and scored a touchdown. 7-0 Baltimore.

The Lions took the kick, ran 2 pass plays and 1 run play and punted.  Jared Goff was sacked, fumbled and the Lions recovered it.  The Ravens took the ball down the field and scored another touchdown. 14-0 Baltimore.

The Lions took the kick, ran 2 pass plays and 1 run play and punted.  The Ravens took the ball down the field and scored another touchdown. 21-0 Baltimore.

The Lions took the kick, ran 2 pass plays and 1 run play and they punted.  Jared Goff was sacked again.  The Ravens took the ball down the field and scored another touchdown. 28-0 Baltimore.

Halfway through the second quarter, a pretty good Lions team was down by four touchdowns and the game was essentially over.  They ended up with a hideous 14/53 split, a Goff was sacked 5 times and threw an interception in a 38-6 humiliation.

I am not saying their play calling was the only reason the Lions lost – their defense also deserves quite a bit of blame.

Nor am I saying you constantly must run a 2 run/1 pass sequence in every single series (in fact, the Cardinals called ten straight pass plays on one of their touchdown drives on that defense).

It is, however, emblematic of what makes the Ravens such a tough opponent.  The game can spiral out of control quickly if you do not recognize their strengths and adapt accordingly.

You must give this defense different looks, but also execute the basics very, very well.

Seattle’s tight ends have been criminally underused so far in the passing game.  Will Dissly and Noah Fant are on track for career-worst seasons of targets.  Colby Parkinson is matching his “third tight end” numbers so far this year.

The offense can run a Twelve Personnel set and open all kinds of options.  Running the same personnel – even lining up the same way – but keeping the defense guessing can pay dividends deep into the game.

Let these tight ends lean on the defense in the running game.  Give D.K. Metcalf a chance to exercise his nasty side and direct some of that unsportsmanlike conduct energy on pushing smaller corners around in the running game downfield.

Establish a tone and then open things up and then sprinkle some finesse into the game with some clever plays to Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

It all starts with basing the plan on your running game.  For the first time, all three running backs were not on the injury report this week.  Games like this are what the Seahawks built up their backfield depth for.  What they drafted maulers like Damien Lewis and Anthony Bradford for.  What they collected tight ends for.

Use them.

Let’s imagine a scenario where Leonard Williams plays really well for the Seahawks this year and they find a way to retain him beyond 2023.

As noted in my article yesterday, this will be a difficult challenge. I think there’s a lot of useful information in that piece so if you missed it, check it out.

Back to the scenario. Williams signs. They either retain or adequately replace their other key free agents, such as Bobby Wagner, Jordyn Brooks, Noah Fant and Damien Lewis.

At this point, the Seahawks wouldn’t have any significant needs. Not a glaring one, anyway.

Theoretically, it could set the Seahawks up perfectly to draft a quarterback early.

This wouldn’t necessarily have to be to start right away. If Geno Smith improves his performance in the second half of the season, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t remain the starter in 2024. If he can lead the team to a good playoff run there’d be little sense in parting.

He does need to improve, however. He has only nine touchdowns and six interceptions in seven games. His quarterback rating of 91.1 ranks only 15th.

He has 11 turnover worthy plays so far this year — eighth most. The players in front of Smith in that category are Mac Jones (17), Gardner Minshew (16), Desmond Ridder (16), Brock Purdy (14), Sam Howell (14), Joshua Dobbs (13) and Patrick Mahomes (12).

It’s strange to see Mahomes in that company and it may be tempting to qualify Smith’s numbers by his presence on the list. However, he’s also a multi-MVP winning double-Super Bowl Champion who we know will bounce back from a rough start to the season, where he’s had challenging games against the Jets (three TWP’s) and Broncos (four TWP’s in two games).

Mahomes aside, this is not good company for Smith to be keeping and speaks to an issue that lingers with Geno. Last year he ranked second in the NFL with 31 TWP’s and he’s already creeping back up towards the top of the list in 2023.

He’s currently projected to finish the season with 22 touchdowns and 15 picks. If that remains, along with a growing number of TWP’s, it won’t be good enough.

Whether he improves or not — drafting a quarterback feels right in 2024. You either bring someone in to compete, essentially the model Seattle chose in 2012 sparking an eventual Super Bowl run a year later, or you bring someone in to redshirt and be the backup. That would also be welcome, given Drew Lock’s $4m salary might not be justifiable next year if he’s only the backup and with money very tight.

Not having a second round pick makes things harder but there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t still draft a quarterback within the first three rounds.

The players who won’t be available

Despite some recent USC struggles, Caleb Williams is a lock to be the first player taken. He’s the complete package for a modern day quarterback — physical brilliance, outstanding elusiveness, he has the ability to extend plays, he can throw downfield (and to all areas) with accuracy and he has an opportunity to quickly establish himself as one of the best players in the league.

I do not see Drake Maye as a challenger to Williams to go first overall. He is well sized, athletic and has a good arm. He takes risks and that has led to issues. He’s had some poor games this year with bad picks against Minnesota and South Carolina and he’s been part of a North Carolina team that has surprisingly lost back-to-back games against Virginia and Georgia Tech.

That said, I understand why teams will be prepared to use a high pick on him. In a draft without a lot of top-end talent — and with so much buzz around Maye — I suspect he will go early. I only have three players on my horizontal board with legit high first round grades — Williams, Marvin Harrison Jr and Brock Bowers. If Maye becomes the consensus QB2, he will go early in round one.

What happens next?

I actually think that might be it for first round quarterbacks. There’s been so much hype surrounding this class but it’s always been ‘deep’ rather than front-loaded.

There are some I would consider in the first round and I’ll come onto them in a bit.

Where will Michael Penix Jr be drafted?

After the Oregon game, many were touting Penix as a high pick. I think we’ve since received some perspective after two challenging games.

There’s no doubting his arm talent. He has a great arm and he delivers some of the prettiest throws we’ve seen in college football since Mahomes at Texas Tech. However, this has often been under no pressure in what amounts to a weekly pitch-and-catch session.

Only Toledo (0.4) are giving up fewer sacks per game than Washington (0.6) in college football. Within a clean pocket throwing to three NFL receivers, life has been comfortable for Penix and the production has piled up. In the last two games though, he’s faced pressure and has struggled.

I have concerns about his technique. He leans back, puts his whole body into the throw and his footwork is often compromised to generate velocity. This is fine when you’ve got all the time in the world to throw as far as you can downfield. In the NFL, he will need to re-work this technique completely. He’ll need to have far more precise footwork, his drops will need to be tighter, he’ll be required to work within a far more complex system that demands more from him pre and post-snap and the ball will need to come out quickly, on time with anticipation.

This is going to take a lot of work. Seeing the way he’s reacted and struggled to basic pressure against Arizona State and Stanford — and how his game folded — set off alarm bells.

In the first five games his completion percentage was 74.9%. I watched all of these games and he was barely touched in the pocket. In his last three games against Oregon, Arizona State and Stanford where he’s faced pressure, his completion percentage has dropped dramatically to 60.2%.

I’m also concerned that he’s often throwing to an area rather than showing he can be a precise, accurate passer on the intermediate level. He’s had a lot of failed deep-shots, where he’s basically thrown it as far as he can. Sometimes his elite college receivers run underneath the throws or they make outstanding high-point or contended catches. Yet other times it’s felt very ‘f-it let’s go deep’.

Let’s be fair, Penix has also completed some excellent touch throws in big situations that show off his talent. My fear, though, is that what we might see in the NFL is a player with physical tools who can make some attractive plays from time to time but is also going to have stretches where he struggles to play on schedule and lead a functioning offense when the big play isn’t always there.

Can he be more than a big-play artist? Will the big plays even follow him to the NFL if his technique needs re-working to be able to throw quickly from the pocket under pressure?

On top of this there are some injury question marks and I’m sure scouts will wonder if he’s the beneficiary of a prolific offensive system that he’s played in for a number of years and mastered. It’s also an offense that is completely foreign to anything he’ll experience at the next level.

I like Penix as a player but I’ve tempered my expectations for him. I think he’s a viable day-two pick and what happens in the coming weeks will determine how high or low he’ll be taken on day two.

Why Rattler & Ewers might appeal to Seattle

Circumstance and perception matters. If you’re playing for a contender in the national spotlight, you’ll get a lot of attention. If you’re stuck playing for a bad team, the opposite happens.

Spencer Rattler has been dealt a bad hand this year. It’s a shame, because I don’t think people realise quite how well he has played despite the adversity he has faced.

While Penix has benefitted from excellent pass protection, Rattler’s situation is the polar opposite. South Carolina have given up the second most sacks in the whole of college football (4.9 per game). Only Colorado’s O-line (5.3) is worse.

Let’s compare Rattler’s sacks-per-game to the other big-name quarterbacks:

Michael Penix — 0.6
Bo Nix — 0.6
JJ McCaffrey — 1.0
Tyler Van Dyke — 1.0
Jordan Travis — 1.3
Riley Leonard — 1.3
Will Howard — 1.6
Quinn Ewers — 2.1
Jayden Daniels — 2.3
Drake Maye — 2.5
Michael Pratt — 2.9
Cam Ward — 3.1
Spencer Rattler — 4.9

It’s incredible, really, when you look at the comparison.

Having watched all of his games in 2023, I can tell you it barely paints the whole picture. He has been pressured, hit and harassed at a ridiculous rate. According to PFF he’s faced 130 total pressures so far, third most by any quarterback in college football.

Several other quarterbacks wouldn’t have been able to function in this environment. Rattler, per PFF, is still grading higher than Kyle McCord and Joe Milton (both playing in winning teams in QB-friendly systems).

Rattler has only eight turnover worthy plays this season, 72nd most in college football. That’s the same number as Shadeur Sanders, Tyler Van Dyke and Jayden Daniels. In comparison, Penix has four despite being in a far more friendly situation.

His TWP percentage of 2.3% isn’t high enough to even show-up in PFF’s top-200 list among college quarterbacks. This is despite being sacked five times more than the likes of Penix, Nix, McCaffrey and others.

Rattler has five interceptions — one fewer than Penix. I’ve seen him throw one egregious interception against Tennessee that ended up being a pick-six but none of the others stood out.

Furthermore, he’s playing in a pro-style offense that is far different to the extreme spread, half-field read offenses elsewhere. In this clip he details the difference between the system at Oklahoma and the scheme he plays in now.

Someone on Twitter/X started a debate with me last week citing the documentary Rattler featured in during High School and his failed time with the Sooners. It’s time to move on from this. As someone who railed against Rattler as a top-five pick two years ago when there was no evidence of warranting such a grade, I’ve completely adjusted my opinion now. He has grown so much as a person and a quarterback. It shows in the way he speaks, acts and plays on the field.

Despite all the chaos going on in front of him, he is composed in the pocket. He plays on schedule, within the system and he combines big plays with more basic (but no less important) plays. Gone are the days of him hopelessly trusting his arm and throwing into triple coverage. The cocky recklessness is a thing of the past. Now, he just looks like a proper QB.

Physically he is exceptional. He has an elite arm. He can make difficult throws downfield on the run with a flick of the wrist. Rattler can make special things happen.

See for yourself:

weekly spencer rattler DIME. unreal throw. pic.twitter.com/lFA63A5rXP

— Kyron Samuels (@kyronsamuels) October 28, 2023

He’s also elusive and a surprisingly good runner.

Rattler has become the player everyone hoped he would be in 2021. It’s just he plays for a bad team who lose every week with the second worst O-line in college football. It’s giving him no chance to thrive like he did in huge wins a year ago against a rampant Tennessee and Clemson. I think many have lost faith in him and are simply ignoring him as a prospect because he didn’t justify the hype two years ago.

I suspect there will be scouts in the league returning to the tape of those two games against Tennessee and Clemson, pleading for him not to be overlooked. He looked like a poor-man’s Mahomes. This year, he’s not had a chance to reach those heights again. He did, however, outplay Drake Maye in week one.

I think he’s an ideal player for a good team to draft and develop. I think draft media is foolish in sleeping on him and in the right situation, I think he can succeed at the next level. As of today, I would consider him in round one. If you could trade into round two and get him, even better. If he’s available beyond that, run to the podium.

I think the Seahawks will also be very interested in Texas’ Quinn Ewers. I’ve been on a bit of a journey with Ewers. I thought his tape last year was poor. This year, he had an exceptional performance against Alabama but some mixed displays in other games. He is erratic at times including against weaker opponents.

That said, I recently went back and reviewed some of his games. Increasingly I’m willing to chalk some of his erraticism down to a lack of experience. He’s not had a lot of starts in college after transferring from Ohio State and suffering some injuries.

I made a lofty comparison for Rattler and I’m going to do it again with Ewers. The more I’ve watched, the more I think there’s a little Aaron Rodgers to him.

His release is to die for. We’re talking about a very subtle, quick flick of the wrist ala Rodgers and the ball fires downfield. I actually think in time he can become more accurate downfield because he’s had a few misses there in his time at Texas. There’s no doubting though the ball bursts out of his palm with minimal effort. It’s special.

It’s basically the reverse of Penix, who has to put his whole body into the throw to generate (admittedly great) velocity. Ewers has easy arm strength, as does Rattler.

On top of this, Ewers can make very quick and precise throws to all levels. The Alabama game was a perfect example of his potential. He was reading the defense, he knew what the scheme demanded and how to exploit opportunities. There was no hesitation — he played with timing and anticipation.

You can see every play from that performance here:

Every throw from Quinn Ewers vs Alabama

STATS
24 for 38 (63%)
349 yards / 9.2 per attempt
3 TD / 0 INT
89.4 Total QBR (out of 100/ESPN) pic.twitter.com/32MnJ8kkAd

— Nash (@NashTalksTexas) September 10, 2023

He’s also a great athlete — capable of making surprisingly good gains as a runner and he’s shifty in the pocket. Rodgers was also an excellent athlete — running a 4.32 short shuttle at his pro-day and jumping a 34.5 inch vertical at the combine.

I think scouts and GM’s will like Ewers a lot more than people realise. I think they’ll see what he can become, rather than what he is right now. There are very few players with his potential and natural throwing talent. Plus, I think teams will like the fact he’s played for Steve Sarkisian. There’s a reason Arch Manning snubbed every other elite college team to play for Sarkisian.

For that reason, he could easily be a first round pick. That’s how good his potential is. You would need to be patient with him though.

There will be some concern about injuries. He might miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury and he had health issues in 2022 too. Tony Pauline is reporting he’s 50/50 on whether to turn pro. The situation at Texas with Manning complicates matters.

I think he’s John Schneider’s type of player. Very talented. Athletic. Arm strength. His personality will appeal (he’s very religious, like Schneider). He’s also been through a lot during his time at Texas and Ohio State.

Both Rattler and Ewers have natural gifts, they’ve grown as individuals, they’ve battled adversity and they are both — in my view — underrated players and viable draft picks for the Seahawks. I reserve the right to change my opinion but I wouldn’t be against either player being Seattle’s first pick in the draft, whenever that might occur. They are high-upside players with the ceiling you look for in a quarterback selection.

Other options

I really like Riley Leonard’s potential. He’s big, highly athletic and while there’s some rawness as a passer — there’s a bit of Josh Allen to his game. He was seconds away from dragging an undefeated Duke to a win against Notre Dame and crushingly ended with a loss and a high ankle sprain instead.

I don’t like that Duke’s staff is letting him play with the injury. Having seen the last two games that he’s played, he’s not even close to being healthy enough to start. He can barely set his feet to throw. I really hope he isn’t making the injury worse, especially playing behind an O-line at times missing its best two starters.

(Edit — it’s been revealed today he’s suffered another injury, a toe issue, and could miss the rest of the season. This is an appalling situation. He had no business being on the field)

I currently have Leonard with a second round grade but he has the potential to be taken in the top-40. He needs time to develop as a passer but he has all the physical skills to succeed.

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed watching Will Howard at Kansas State. He makes good throws across the middle. He’s big and athletic and another surprisingly good runner. There’s a lot of potential here but he’s also had some iffy games (Oklahoma State) where the turnovers have been difficult to ignore. I like him as a day two option, perhaps round three. He’d be a great player to see at the Senior Bowl.

I feel similarly about Tyler Van Dyke. I’m not sure TVD is a fit for what the Seahawks want to do on offense but he does have some potential as a big, strong passer. He’s played well for the most part this year. He’s not particularly mobile but has shown he can do some boot-leg work. He has the occasional ‘head in your hands’ play but he can also throw with touch and drive the ball downfield. At the moment, he has a round-three feel at best.

If you want a bit of a wildcard name — I don’t know if Missouri’s Brady Cook will declare but he’s already 22 and might want to turn pro. I’ve been impressed with him this year. He’s an intelligent, creative quarterback with a good arm, mobility and he’s leading an underrated team to a strong season.

I think Bo Nix is the benefactor of the system at Oregon but there are certain schemes in the NFL where he could succeed. He’s also been through a lot in college and shown a lot of determination to eventually succeed with the Ducks. I have him in round three or four currently.

I’m still trying to work out exactly where I want to place Jayden Daniels, Jordan Travis and Cam Ward. It appears Michael Pratt might return to college year and transfer to a big-name school. I also don’t expect Shadeur Sanders or JJ McCaffrey to declare (unless the situation at Michigan influences his decision).

Rattler and Ewers are the two I’m keeping the closest eye on for Seattle at the moment. I’d be fascinated to know what the Seahawks think about Penix’s technique and ability to adapt to the pro’s.

A quick note for Sunday — I am hosting the national radio broadcast in the UK of the Eagles/Cowboys game. Therefore, the ‘instant reaction’ live stream won’t be so instant this week. I’ll go live when I complete the broadcast to reflect on the Ravens game. So if you’re tuning in, join us after the conclusion of Dallas vs Philly.

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I’ve seen a lot of people referring to the Seahawks ‘being able to get a third round comp-pick’ next year if Leonard Williams isn’t re-signed beyond the 2023 season.

I wanted to break it down and talk through the reality of the situation.

The comp-pick formula is determined by net-loss of players (who you lose vs who you sign) and contract value. As OverTheCap explains:

In plain English, if a team loses more players that qualify as CFAs than it signs during free agency, that team is eligible to be awarded compensatory picks in the following NFL draft.

It’s quite a complicated formula overall and the explainer that OverTheCap provides is tricky to decipher, even though they’ve clearly done their best to explain things in laymen terms.

I’ll try and address the situation with Williams and Seattle as best I can here.

The first thing that would need to happen for the Seahawks to get a third round-comp pick would be for Williams to sign a mega contract with another team.

This year, the only players who generated third round comp-picks were Christian Kirk and Brandon Scherff. Kirk, if people recall, re-set the market at receiver in 2022 with a contract worth $18m a year. Scherff signed a contract worth $16.5m a year.

The comp-pick formula isn’t just dictated by average salary. For example, Kirk’s $18m-a-year deal is smaller than Von Miller’s $20m-a-year deal, yet Kirk gained Arizona a third-rounder and Miller only delivered a fifth-rounder to the Rams. This is because the formula takes into account positional salary percentile’s. Kirk’s contract put him in the top percentile at his position. Miller’s deal put him below the 90th percentile for a pass rusher. That helps dictate the pick you receive.

For it to even be a possibility that Williams could deliver a third-round compensatory to Seattle in 2025, he would need to agree to a contract that made him one of the highest paid defensive tackles in the NFL.

It’s not impossible. Javon Hargrave signed a $21m-a-year deal with the 49ers this year at 30-years-old. He is being projected by OverTheCap to earn the Eagles a third-round comp pick in 2024. Williams also turns 30 next June.

However, Hargrave anchored Philadelphia’s defensive line on the way to a Super Bowl run. He was one of the stand-out D-liners in the league and had 11 sacks.

Williams has 1.5 sacks for the season so far, with ten games to go. It’s unlikely his production will match Hargrave’s. It would also be some achievement to reach Hargrave’s level of importance to Philadelphia in 2022.

The other highest paid players at defensive tackle are some of the expected names (Aaron Donald, Chris Jones) and talented younger players who have just signed their second contracts (Quinnen Williams, Jeffrey Simmons, Daron Payne). I think it’s more realistic that Williams would fall in one of the next two tiers in free agency, given his age and the fact he’s approaching his third contract.

Dalvin Tomlinson signed a $14.25m-a-year contract in Cleveland this year as a free agent, while David Onyemata moved to Atlanta for $11.6m. Tomlinson turns 30 next year and Onyemata turns 31, so they are similar ages. Tomlinson had three sacks in 2022 and had a strong PFF grade of 77.1 with the Vikings. Onyemata had five sacks for the Saints but only registered a PFF grade of 64.0.

It’s very possible that Williams could earn more than both players but I do think this is a realistic projection of his price range, based on the information we have today.

Dre’Mont Jones obviously got a higher salary when he joined the Seahawks ($17.1m per year) but it’s worth noting he is only 26, it was his second contract and he had seven sacks last season.

If Williams was to sign a contract comparable to Dalvin Tomlinson’s, or between Tomlinson’s salary and Dre’Mont Jones’ salary, he could potentially net a fourth or fifth round comp-pick if he departs at the end of the season. Even if he matches Jones’ $17.1m salary, the Broncos would’ve only netted a fourth-round comp-pick based on salary percentiles.

Onyemata is projecting to gain the Saints a fourth round pick next year. Tomlinson would’ve also gained Minnesota a fourth rounder but the fact they signed Marcus Davenport to a similar-sized contract meant the two deals cancel each other out (thus, no comp-pick).

JC Jackson netted the Patriots a fourth rounder this year when he signed a $16.5m-a-year deal with the Chargers. Chandler Jones and Von Miller will gain the Cardinals and Rams a fifth rounder each. It’s very plausible Williams could do the same for Seattle if he leaves the team next year but a third-round pick seems pretty unlikely.

The next thing to consider is any comp-pick would be dependant on the Seahawks themselves being inactive in free agency. If they signed an outside free agent on a deal comparable to Williams, they wouldn’t receive a comp-pick for him.

It’s very likely the Seahawks will not be active in free agency in 2024. OverTheCap projects they only have $6.1m in effective cap space. They will raise another $5.9m when they cut Bryan Mone. So they basically have $12m to spend in free agency.

With such a long list of pending free agents, it is going to be really difficult for the Seahawks to be add an outside player you’d consider a ‘net gain’. What I mean by that is, their effective cap space will be used to re-sign or replace the following:

Bobby Wagner
Jordyn Brooks
Noah Fant
Damien Lewis
Colby Parkinson
Phil Haynes
Drew Lock
Evan Brown
Darrell Taylor (RFA)
Mario Edwards Jr
Deejay Dallas

There are many other names to list, including some ERFA’s, but these are the key names.

Without a second round pick, it’s one-pick harder to use the draft to replace these players. That means there will almost certainly be a big off-season focus on retention and/or replacing in a cost-effective way. There’s a ton of work to do.

Replacing any of the players above would not impact the comp-pick situation for Williams because you’d be cancelling out the comp-pick you’d receive for any of the free agents lost.

This means two things:

1. It’s going to be difficult to re-sign Williams after this season. The money simply isn’t there and neither is the means to replace your long list of free agents if you use most of your available cap on keeping him.

2. There’s a good chance the Seahawks will receive a comp-pick (likely a fourth or fifth rounder in 2025) if Williams walks.

That, I think, is the top and bottom of it.

I’ve seen people talking about the expectation or likelihood of Williams being kept. I think that is hope more than the reality of the situation based on Seattle’s cap.

Dre’Mont Jones’ cap-hit this year is $10m. If Williams was to sign a similar contract, or even slightly less, he’d basically be using up all of Seattle’s available cap.

The only way around this would be to start hacking at your roster, such as cutting Geno Smith as a post-June 1st agreement to save $22.5m, cutting Jamal Adams in the same way to save $16.5m or parting with Quandre Diggs outright to save $11m.

These are not implausible moves but anyone speaking optimistically about retaining Leonard Williams should be up-front about the fact that other expensive veterans would need to go first. Keeping the full band together, as it is right now, is for the birds.

It’s also worth noting that $12m to keep or replace most of Seattle’s other free agents isn’t going to be enough. So even before we consider an extension for Williams, the chances are one of Smith, Adams or Diggs will need to go, or the Seahawks will need to find other ways to create cap-space (basically lending on the credit card, which has taken plenty of other teams into cap hell).

Therefore, I would suggest the following. I don’t think the Seahawks have traded for Williams with any specific, cast-iron plan for beyond this season. I think they have rented him for 10 games and will check the lay of the land at the end of the year. They will weigh-up his impact vs the impact of players like Smith, Adams and Diggs when making a financial call for 2024.

Thus, this trade — to me — should be very specifically referred to as a rental and an aggressive move to try and win now with no clarity on anything beyond the end of this season.

This is a ‘Rams 2021’ type trade. It’s their version of Von Miller. I’m sceptical the Seahawks are in a similar place to the Rams two years ago and their ‘F-those picks’ mentality. They’re 5-2 but have played some bad football in multiple games. The offense has had miserable full halves against the Rams, Bengals and Browns.

The Williams trade will upgrade and improve the defensive line. However, in order to truly justify the deal, the offense will also need to avoid being so streaky going forward. It’s no good the defense playing well if the offense struggles to convert a third down for two quarters (or more).

The Rams’ aggressive approach won them a Super Bowl and as such, was justified. The Seahawks don’t need to win a Super Bowl for the Williams deal to be viewed positively — but they do need to prove they’re a serious NFC force with results in the coming weeks. They need to be more than a mere sixth or seventh seed playoff outfit, a Wilcard round playoff team or a fairly non-competitive divisional round team (as they were in the final years of the Russell Wilson era).

I will be comfortable with this trade if Williams plays very well, the Seahawks take a leap forward overall and he is eventually extended. Otherwise, I think scrutinising the value of the deal (as we have done) was the right thing to do. A ten game rental to be marginally better or retain the status quo, for the price of a second round pick and swapping a 2025 fifth for a fourth or fifth round comp-pick, would feel like an overpay.

In order to extend him, I would have no issue with the Seahawks parting with Geno Smith this off-season if he continues to play the way he is currently. I think you can find a cheaper bridge quarterback who can throw nine touchdowns and six interceptions in seven games. If the defense is the identity and if the QB essentially needs to be a point guard for an array of talented weapons — then it’s harder to justify a $33-41m salary for Smith in 2024 based on his production this year and the salary-cap challenges facing the Seahawks.

Smith, as we’ve said all along, is in a prove-it year. He has a big 10 games coming up against some tough opponents. He needs to keep the offense on schedule, utilise the weapons he has better and limit the turnovers and turnover-worthy plays. Shane Waldron also has to do a better job assisting Smith in this task.

If he succeeds, they will need to find money from elsewhere. If he doesn’t succeed, I would say it’d be better to have a cheaper bridge quarterback and then make drafting a QB the priority. I think it should be anyway. It’s time. Select one within the first three rounds, invest in a player at the position. It’s a deep class at quarterback and it’s time to identify someone they like, even if they don’t start immediately.

I will post an article tomorrow with further thoughts on this but I do think there will be players they will believe are worthy of selecting in their draft slots next year, even without a second round pick.

It’s also possible that 2024 could mirror 2012 — where they had a strong overall roster then added a talented young rookie quarterback. That formula won a Super Bowl in 2013. As they aggressively invest in their defense, one possible plan could be to try and emulate 2012. Financially at least, it makes sense.

A final note and a clarification. People have been talking online about Seattle owning Denver’s third round pick. To be clear, they do not. They will receive the lower of Denver’s two third round picks. At the moment, this would be the pick Denver acquired from New Orleans. As of today that would be pick #80, not Denver’s selection at #71.

So if the season ended now, Seattle would possess picks #25, #80 and #89 in the first three rounds. They would’ve given the Giants #58 in the Leonard Williams trade.

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If you’re minded to not want to discuss the ins and outs of trade value, that’s fine. I just wanted to say this article probably isn’t for you.

You’re welcome to be disinterested in the subject and there’s nothing wrong with that. Some of us want to discuss the trade value though. That is also OK. I’ve seen too many Seahawks fans in the last 24 hours try to shut down any opinion that strays marginally beyond, ‘OMG this is an amazing trade’.

Personally, I think value should always be discussed. Draft picks are the foundation with which you build. Your high picks are critical. The Seahawks have built an intriguing new core with back-to-back excellent drafts. When a trade is an ultra-aggressive, 10-game rental — with no guarantee of anything more — scrutiny is necessary.

A day after the Leonard Williams trade was confirmed, I think it’s increasingly starting to look like an overpay that is just irksome enough to want to write about.

Chase Young has today been dealt to the 49ers for a third round pick. According to Over The Cap, the trade will cost San Francisco $560,000 in salary:

Young for a 3 and a $560K salary makes that Seahawks trade for Williams look so silly

— Jason_OTC (@Jason_OTC) October 31, 2023

Young has had injury issues in his career but he’s healthy in 2023 and has five sacks in six games. His PFF grade is 75.4. He’s seventh in the league for pressures (38) and sixth among edge rushers for hurries (27). For perspective, Boye Mafe (Seattle’s best performing pass rusher) is 29th for hurries (16) and 30th for pressures (23). As well as Mafe has played, Young’s pass rush numbers are superior (although he had a strong supporting cast in Washington and Mafe is a far better grader vs the run).

At 24-year-old and still on his rookie deal, if Young continues to be productive he will be due a big contract next off-season. That increases San Francisco’s chances of recouping a higher compensatory pick (although they would need to be inactive in free agency themselves). It’s not implausible, with Young playing across from Nick Bosa, that he will excel, sign a big deal somewhere else and the Niners will get the third round pick back in 2025. It looks like a shot to nothing.

Williams on the other hand has 1.5 sacks this season and only had 2.5 last year. His PFF grade is 67.6. You might argue sacks aren’t everything but his run-defense grade is only 59.4. His pressure percentage is just 5.8% — ranked 41st among defensive tackles. He does rank 11th for hurries (16) and 14th for total pressures (22). To me it paints a picture of a player who can be disruptive but is probably in the ‘good’ rather than ‘great’ territory, at least at this stage in his career (year nine).

At 29-years-old (30 next summer) and approaching a third contract, he’s less likely to sign another mega deal. That will make the prospect of a future high comp-pick slim. I like him as a player and am looking forward to seeing him in Seattle. I long felt the Seahawks needed another defensive tackle — but not at any cost. I do fear Williams’ best days are in the rearview mirror and they were simply too aggressive here, giving up a prized asset.

The 49ers trade feels opportunistic. Those are typically the best kind of trades. Seattle’s feels overly aggressive. Those are the types of trades that have led to mistakes being made during the Carroll and Schneider era.

It almost feels a little bit like they got carried away after the dramatic Browns win and San Francisco’s third straight loss and decided to go ‘all-in’ aggressive. They paid a premium to avoid paying Williams’ salary. The Niners, instead, seem to have got a similar financial deal for a cheaper pick with a little more patience but no-less action.

It should be acknowledged that clearly there wasn’t much of a market for Young. The Commanders moved Montez Sweat to Chicago to acquire a higher pick. Thus, they were already negotiating with teams. Compared to the Sweat deal, it almost feels like they gave Young away. It feels overly generous and the 49ers are the benefactors.

Even still, comparing the two deals, it feels just a bit too rich from Seattle’s perspective. Trading your second best off-season asset for such a short-term rental is a big call and now two things have to happen. One, Williams has to justify the move. Two, the Seahawks have to prove they are a team who should’ve even been considering making such an aggressive trade. They’re 5-2 and it’s a good start. They’ve also been very streaky, played some bad football at times and they’re about to face a gauntlet of opponents. They went from 6-3 to 9-8 last year and after making this trade, that simply cannot happen again.

Remember, they are stretched with the cap next year. Unless they’re willing to cut someone like Geno Smith, Jamal Adams or Quandre Diggs, they are going to struggle to retain Williams beyond this season. This trade is about the here and now. We need to see results on the field to justify their aggression.

I appreciate some fans will square the circle of this trade quite easily. For me, I’m just not in that headspace. I can hope for extreme success with the trade while having some reservations over the value. I think the Giants will be delighted with their return. I think the Niners will feel very happy about their trade today. I think the Seahawks overpaid and the Commanders undersold.

I really hope this trade works out for Seattle. I can’t help but feel like we’ve been here before though with similar, overly aggressive trades.

They transformed the team with sound, sensible roster construction and excellent drafting in 2022 and 2023. This move feels like a return to the iffy trades that came before their latest reset. I hope Williams can play well enough — and produce — to justify the outlay.

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Join me for a live stream discussing the big trade at 4:15pm PT

The Seahawks have brought in Leonard Williams, giving the New York Giants their second rounder in 2024 and a fifth round pick in 2025.

The first thing I wanted to touch on was the quality of the next draft. It isn’t very good. I’ve spent considerable time over the last few weeks building a horizontal board for 2024. At the moment I have only three players worthy of ‘legit’ first round grades. I have another nine players I’d be prepared to draft in round one. There are 32 more players I’ve given second round grades.

That’s only 44 players in total, with 64 selections to be made in the first two rounds. I think this provides some useful context for the value of Seattle’s second round pick next year. However, it still doesn’t necessarily justify what they’ve paid to the Giants in this deal.

Williams turns 30 next year and he’s a free agent at the end of the season. This is an extreme short-term move. It’s akin to the Rams acquiring Von Miller. The problem is, Williams isn’t the impact-player Miller was.

He only had 2.5 sacks last season and so far he has 1.5 sacks this season. His best season came in 2020 during a contract year, when he had 11 sacks. Williams hasn’t come close to reaching those heights since. His PFF grade this year is 67.6 — good enough for 37th among interior defensive linemen. That’s marginally better than Mario Edwards Jr (67.2).

If they were bringing in a legit blue-chip star to be a potential ‘tipping point’ for the defense, this would be an extremely aggressive move but one that was more understandable. Instead it feels like the Seahawks have just spent a second and a fifth round pick to rent ten games of a decent Leonard Williams.

Had they made this kind of move for, say, Chase Young or Montez Sweat — at least you could argue that there’s some potential long-term thinking at play. They’re 27 and 24-years-old respectively. The franchise tag would be a security blanket, with both players fresh off rookie deals. Both players would be highly motivated to ‘cash-in’ next summer when their rookie deals end.

Let’s compare it to a similar trade a year ago. The Ravens gave the Bears a second and fifth rounder in the 2023 draft for 25-year-old Roquan Smith, who was then extended on a long term contract last January. I’m not sure 10 games of Williams compares well to the deal for Smith.

Even if the Seahawks extend Williams, is this a long-term play? How many years can they realistically expect to get out of him?

What impact is he legitimately going to have? I liked him as a player at his best and there’s no doubt the Seahawks are improved for having him. Yet you do have to consider value with trades. It’s hard to see how a second and fifth round pick for potentially a ten-game rental makes sense.

It seems that the Seahawks might’ve paid a premium price because the Giants are taking on his salary. Essentially, the Giants are buying better draft compensation as they potentially prepare to aggressively pursue the quarterback market next April.

I don’t think that’s good business for Seattle, especially considering Williams is out of contract next year. If they had a commitment beyond 2023 it would be slightly more understandable. This feels like an overly aggressive, short-term move where the only justification is to win ‘now’. Anything other than a deep playoff run, and/or a well-crafted contract extension, makes this a questionable move.

It’s hard to know how the Seahawks can extend him beyond this year. They’re practically spent up for 2024 as it is. Overthecap is projecting $4,895,356 in effective cap space and that is dependant on rollover money. They have some levers, including Geno Smith’s contract, but they already have a long list of free agents who will need to be retained or replaced. Now they have another mouth to feed, or it will literally be a ten-game rental before hoping you get a good comp pick in 2025 (no given because it requires Williams receiving a significant pay-day and the Seahawks being inactive in free agency).

This feels very similar to the Sheldon Richardson trade, another extreme short-term move that didn’t work out. Except at least they got a full season out of Richardson, who was younger when he arrived in Seattle and had the extra motivation of being in a contract year on his rookie deal, not having already been paid a fortune.

After two years of extremely effective drafting, where they’ve been incredibly restrained to retain picks not splurge, this feels like a return to the mistakes of the past. They’ve not succeeded chasing big trades. Their best moves were cheap and opportunistic. The foundation of their current roster was built through smart, sensible, conservative decision making. This is risky and similar to what they were doing in the latter stages of the LOB era.

While it might not be a great 2024 draft overall, it is deep at quarterback. I believe it’s increasingly clear they need to draft a quarterback. I won’t repeat everything I wrote yesterday. However, Geno Smith is showing impressive physical traits that are allowing him to make impressive plays and have moments where he excels. However, since the Germany game last year we’ve also seen a lot of the stuff that has prevented him from being more than he’s shown to be in his career so far. There are too many turnover-worthy plays, too many turnovers, the offense is streaky and going large stretches of games where they just can’t function.

This is not all Smith’s fault. As noted yesterday, Shane Waldron’s play-calling leaves a lot to be desired and he deserves to shoulder some blame too. I don’t think he has played well enough, however, to eliminate questions about his suitability as the long-term answer at quarterback or his ability to lead the team to the pinnacle. For me, he’s proving he’s a bridge to what’s next. It’s harder to acquire what’s next if you trade away good draft picks on extreme short-term trades.

You now have less scope to be aggressive in the draft (if you want to be). You’ve also given away a club-controlled young player for four years (two players if you include the fifth rounder) for a 10-game rental.

I’m sure there will be a feeling that they’re being aggressive because they sense an opportunity. The 49ers are on a three-game losing streak. The Eagles are not playing particularly well. The Lions were exposed against Baltimore. Minnesota just lost their quarterback. I can’t deny that this all makes a big trade more appealing. Yet I still want this team to get good value and I simply don’t think this is it. Not for such a short-term rental as this. Not for a player pushing 30 who hasn’t been a game-wrecker since 2020. Not for a second rounder.

As Curtis Allen points out, they’re basically all-in now:

#seahawks restructured Lockett, Diggs, Adams to gain $17m of cap. “Bought” about $9.35m of cap by upping the trade comp for Leonard Williams. They really are pushing their chips to the center of the table in 2023.

— Curtis Allen (@curtis93969) October 30, 2023

God forbid that Williams would pick up an injury between now and the end of the season yet that isn’t implausible for a player who missed five games in 2022. He has to be impactful, dynamic and healthy. Otherwise you’ve just blown your second best off-season asset in 2024, plus change.

Williams has to be worth it. He has to impact and change games. He has to be a difference maker. He needs to be the 2020 version the Giants added for just a third rounder a few years ago. Is he still a player who can do that?

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How can you play so poorly for three quarters and still win? Get your safety to head the ball to a teammate to change the game.

There have been some bizarre wins in the Pete Carroll era plus some strange and unique ways to claim victory. This was a new one.

The end result is the Seahawks dodged a major bullet to take advantage of San Francisco’s improbable third straight defeat and claim first place in the NFC West. They avoid having to go to Baltimore staring at the prospect of a 4-4 record going into the challenging part of a tough schedule.

There aren’t that many positives apart from that — but that in itself is the main thing. That’s what makes this such a confusing game to assess because, well, they won.

Somehow.

Even so, I want to discuss some real issues with the team.

The offense has too much talent to play the streaky brand of football we’ve seen so far. The second half against the Rams. The second half against the Bengals. The first half against Carolina. This entire game after the initial two drives.

The offense has a habit of grinding to a complete halt, with no idea how to utilise an assortment of weapons to kick things into gear. There are too many good skill players on this team to be this inept for long stretches.

They’ve ploughed resource into the offense to make this a formidable unit. What they’ve got instead is an offense that can look great and horrible in equal measure.

They scored 17 points in the first quarter and were shut-out after that until the final minute. Until the end, it felt like the Rams in week one all over again.

It all felt so avoidable too.

Curtis Allen outlined the importance of running the ball in his game preview, pleading with the Seahawks to playing to their strengths while limiting Cleveland’s on defense:

The Colts last week decided they would rather play to their strengths and planned accordingly. They only asked Gardner Minshew to throw the ball 27 times (against a whopping 40 runs). They gained 168 yards and had three touchdowns on the ground.

A 23/40 pass/run day for the Seahawks would be just what the doctor ordered. Split those 40 runs between Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet and Deejay Dallas and keep Garrett in check as he chases runners rather than the quarterback.

When Geno Smith threw his second interception, it was his 26th throw. At this point, Ken Walker had six carries. Zach Charbonnet had three.

In the fourth quarter Charbonnet drove them over half-way and a drive was finally on. What then? A false start, Geno throws a bad incompletion and then took a sack.

They ended up throwing the ball 37 times in total, with Walker and Charbonnet combining for just 13 runs. How did this happen? Those 13 runs produced 119 yards. That’s 9.2 yards per play. Why didn’t they lean on the run and play off that today?

They did the opposite of what worked for Indianapolis last week. Even if it wasn’t Myles Garrett wrecking the game until the end, the offense completely stopped functioning and it didn’t necessarily have to be this way.

People will point at the Browns defense. This same defense gave up 38 points to the Colts last week, the same Colts who just got pummelled by the Saints and Jaguars either side of that game. They’re good but let’s not mistake them for the ’85 Bears or the Legion of Boom.

For whatever reason, Seattle’s play-calling seems muddled and their plans all over the place. The tight ends are unstoppable one game and then anonymous the next. The running game hasn’t been fluid, consistent or felt like their identity at any point this year (despite the claims that they want it to be). They don’t seem to know how to properly feature their star receivers in a way other teams do.

None of this reflects well on Shane Waldron, who has too many weapons to see his offense switch between so many extremes. He should be under pressure. This offense should be performing far better and far more consistent than it is.

Geno Smith, meanwhile, looks like the player many of us initially expected in the summer of 2022 when they made him the starter. He has physical tools, nobody can deny that. Thus, he has some impressive moments. He can make really nice throws — including his first touchdown today. However, throughout his career he has played too often like we’re seeing currently and it’s why he’s never stuck as a long-term starter.

Last year he had fantastic turnover fortune with regard to turnover-worthy plays. This year, the luck is running out a bit. He has six interceptions compared to nine touchdowns. Even today, he could’ve easily had a pick-six on a miscommunication with Jaxson Smith-Njigba (dropped by the defender) and he nearly chucked away the game at the end with an poorly executed end-zone throw to D.K. Metcalf.

He’s not playing well enough. You can’t have an 9/6 touchdown/interception ratio in 2023 and be given a pass. While he’s far from the only one to blame for the offense being so streaky and lurching between extremes, he’s also the quarterback. The main man. The one who will always take on extra scrutiny.

He and Waldron have to be better. Otherwise it’s only fair to question whether Seattle’s roster chock full of offensive talent is in the right hands. Increasingly the only conclusion you can come to with Geno is that he’s an adequate bridge quarterback and nothing else. That doesn’t mean he should be benched. It doesn’t mean Drew Lock is better. Yet it’s hard to watch him playing at this level and feel like he can lead Seattle to a Championship, justify a $31-41m salary next year or be anything more than a placeholder for whoever is next.

The Seahawks should be looking to draft a quarterback in 2024 and be aggressive about if needed to get the right guy. It’s time. It was probably time this year if we’re honest. It definitely will be next April.

Then there’s the defense. Kudos to them for sticking in there with no help from the offense. The Browns are well coached and found answers in a way Seattle barely ever does on offense. The defense still made the key plays at the end to give the team a chance to win and they were able to snatch this one away. The offense owes the defense a debt of gratitude.

Even so, they also struggled at times to make an impact. Playing hapless teams like the Giants, Panthers, Cardinals and a stuttering Bengals maybe created a bit of a false dawn. A Browns team with a backup quarterback and no Nick Chubb had their way with the defense for large stretches here.

The unit contains talented players for sure and has a lot of potential. Boye Mafe collecting sacks is a major positive. They have youth, depth and extreme talent at corner. The linebackers are playing well. Two safeties combined to make a game-changing play at the end. There’s a lot to like.

I still think, based on this showing, they are clearly missing a blue-chipper up front and/or the creative schematic chops to change games.

I don’t think the thing to do would be to splurge tomorrow ahead of the deadline. I hope their approach is restrained and opportunistic (but probably more restrained).

I think we need to embrace this team for what it is. It’s young and talented. It can be exciting but also very streaky and frustrating. Questions haven’t been answered about the coordinators yet and the quarterback isn’t playing well enough currently to cement his place as the unquestioned starter. Another good draft class is required and keeping stock to possibly be aggressive in the QB market is worth considering.

Even so, first place is first place. Time to enjoy it — that and the fact the 49ers have lost three in a row.

Cheers 🍻

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

In the NFL there are always teams who start well but cannot sustain their success and just as quickly as they rose, they fade back to the pack to make way for the real contenders.

Two such candidates face off Sunday as the Seahawks host the visiting Browns. Both teams sit at 4-2. With wins they are poised to join the top of their divisions. Both have designs on more than just making the playoffs.

However, looking beyond just their record shows they are not on as solid a ground as it would appear. A return to the earth could be in store for both if they do not take a big step forward.

The Browns have the NFL’s best defense statistically so far this year. Jim Schwartz has proven to be a great fit as a defensive coordinator for them. They dedicated themselves to building around Myles Garrett and that has made him even more effective. His game last week against the Colts was as dominant a performance as we have seen from a defensive player this season. He personally accounted for 10 points with a blocked field goal and a sack in the end zone that resulted in a touchdown.

They have really struggled at the quarterback spot though. Deshaun Watson has been injured an ineffective (then injured again). They have turned to Dorian Thompson-Robinson and P.J. Walker. Both have faired badly in the role and weapons the Browns have collected like Amari Cooper and David Njoku have not been utilized as much as they could.

On offense, they have relied on a strong running game and plenty of creativity to offset the lack of talent in the game’s most important position. The defense has been so good, they have nearly made up the difference on offense.

Cleveland is also the beneficiary of two major end-of-game miscues in as many weeks. San Francisco missed an easily make-able 41-yard field goal try at the end of their game, sealing a Browns victory. Last week the game looked like a Browns loss until the referees explicably flagged pass interference on a throw that was headed out of the end zone and nearly into the third row of seats and the Browns capitalized on a first-and-goal at the one-yard line to win it.

They could easily be 2-4 at this point.

The same could be said for the Seahawks. They appear in good shape at 4-2 with an improved defense and plenty of weaponry on offense. Yet three of those four wins have come against teams that will very likely be picking in the top-five of the draft next year.

Last week’s 20-10 victory over Arizona was not nearly as comfortable as it should have been. The offense once again had execution problems as well as three turnovers. The defense – while only conceding 10 points – struggled to maintain their discipline, with the edges failing to maintain their integrity at critical moments and tackling being a problem at times.

That leads of our first critical watch point in this matchup of two talented but flawed teams.

Stand Your Ground on Defense

The Seahawks are rightly proud of their rush defense, as they have consistently been near the top of the league in yards conceded per carry. Right now, they are #3 in the NFL at 3.5 yards per attempt.

It should be noted, however, that this defense conceded 5.08 yards per carry last week to a Cardinals offense that features one of the worst passing quarterbacks in the NFL. Joshua Dobbs completed 58.8% of his passes, was sacked four times and finished the game with 146 passing yards. The point being — run defense was a known key before they even stepped on the field and they still struggled with it.

I point out Dobb’s performance as a way to highlight that is probably what the Browns are expecting from P.J. Walker in this game. Once again, the Seahawks benefit by playing one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL today. Walker’s PFF grade is currently 29.5. He has played in two games as a practice squad elevation. If Walker has even a mediocre game at quarterback, it will be a career best.

To say they are going to feature the run is a massive understatement.

They will try all manner of plays to set up the run. From your standard between-the-tackles runs, to screen plays, to the Wildcat, to clever reverses to get Elijah Moore and maybe old friend Marquise Goodwin in space to let their speed and shiftiness create havoc.

Emari Demarcardo had a career day with 58 yards against the Seahawks last week, including runs of 18, 12 and eight yards. He had an average of four yards per rush before he was touched by a Seahawks defender.

Rondale Moore had a 15-yard run and Josh Dobbs had his 25-yard touchdown run, banging off Seahawks tacklers like a pinball.

The Browns have a better offensive line and more running weapons than the Cardinals had. The Seahawks need to tighten things up and not allow the Browns’ offense any breathing room to move the ball while simultaneously keeping it out of their quarterback’s hands.

This is the test right here. You can hang your hat all you like on the stats. Can they put a stop to the run when they absolutely have to?

It is a fight. A challenge. Who can minimize their weaknesses and in turn help maximize their strengths even more? The Browns will likely be very happy with a short intermittent passing game and a stout rushing attack if they can keep the Seattle defense on the field and win the field position game.

With Uchenna Nwosu out, it will be on the young shoulders of Boye Mafe and Derrick Hall to contain the edges on run plays. Time to step forward, fellas.

Game-Plan the Offense to Minimize Myles Garrett’s Impact

If you have read any of my previous watch points posts, you probably have heard me say a weakness of the Seahawks over the years has been a lack of humility. At times they do not account for an opponents’ strength, preferring to run their set plays and let the chips fall where they may.

Myles Garrett is one such player that Shane Waldron and Geno Smith need to be aware of on every single snap. I submit he should be closely considered when working up and implementing an offensive plan for this game.

In Week Three, the Tennessee Titans did not adjust for Garrett and it cost them dearly. They ran the ball only 15 times (a team with Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears only calling 15 runs!) and threw the ball 30 times. Ryan Tannehill was slow, indecisive and unable to find his second and third reads.

Garrett’s stat line for the game (I promise you I am not making this up): 3.5 sacks, three tackles for loss, a forced fumble, five quarterback hits and six pressures. Tennessee ended up with 94 total yards for the game. It was brutal.

The Colts last week decided they would rather play to their strengths and planned accordingly. They only asked Gardner Minshew to throw the ball 27 times (against a whopping 40 runs). They gained 168 yards and had three touchdowns on the ground.

Garrett still had a memorable performance. He had two sacks, three pressures, blocked a field goal and had two forced fumbles. One of them resulted in a touchdown. Yet the Colts had the game virtually won until that terrible blown call by the officials. They found a formula on offense and it worked.

A 23/40 pass/run day for the Seahawks would be just what the doctor ordered. Split those 40 runs between Ken Walker, Zach Charbonnet and Deejay Dallas and keep Garrett in check as he chases runners rather than the quarterback.

As for how to plan for and handle Garrett, let’s take a brief look at his “worst” game this year against San Francisco. He ended the game with one pressure and five tackles, nothing more.

How did the Niners game plan for him? Have a look at the highlight reel from the NFL.

— Run away from him. Look at the very first play. Garrett is lined up over the left tackle and they run behind the right guard. McCaffrey jukes through the traffic and Garrett actually pursues him on the backside. If you can get him huffing and puffing after chasing running backs all day, that will only help you when you do decide to pass the ball.

— Run right at him. Look at the next play. He’s lined up over the left tackle again but Trent Williams seals the tackle inside and both the guard and Kyle Juszczyk are pulling to seal him off and give the runner space. Also look at 8:46. They let him penetrate inside and run a sweep with the tight ends leading the way.

— Use his aggressiveness against him. Very next play at 0:35. Nobody blocks him, McCaffrey gives him a token chip and then turns to receive a shovel from Purdy and Garrett is totally out of the play. But also…

— Do not try the typical screen. Cue the video to 1:33 and get ready to cringe and say a prayer for Charles Cross. The Niners have a typical screen set up with offensive linemen pulling and trying to set up. Trent Williams – the best left tackle in the NFL – tries to just chip and release Garrett and gets manhandled. The other defenders’ speed takes over and cleans up a play wrecked by Garrett.

— Pay the Garrett Tax. 2:42, 5:12, 5:40, you see the Niners double teaming or otherwise chipping Garrett. I’d like to point out at 5:12 they use McCaffrey to chip him with Trent Williams right there. Now that is humility. It is OK to admit that good players need some help and that you can use other good players to do some dirty work once in a while.

— Get your QB in motion. Cue to 3:42. Garrett lined up over the left tackle and they are at the left hash mark. Purdy takes the snap and rolls to a large swath of open ground to his right and has a great option to hit Brandon Aiyuk.

— Don’t miss your shots. 8:18 the rush is coming and Purdy has his man sighted and just overthrows him off his back heel. If you are going to stand tall in the pocket and take a hit, you have to keep your mechanics clean and make the play.

— Throw slants and other quick passes. 11:40, 11:55, 12:02. The Niners are moving the ball down the field late in the game. Garrett can’t sack anyone if the ball is thrown before he gets there. PFF says he had an insane 45 pass rush wins that he never translated to a pressure last year because the ball was already gone.

There has been a lot of talk about the Seahawks’ success in play action passes this week, mostly fueled by a PFF tweet:

Geno Smith on play-action passes this season:

45/56
554 yards
3 TDs / 0 INTs
125.7 passer rating

🚀 pic.twitter.com/97FoG0Ccts

— PFF SEA Seahawks (@PFF_Seahawks) October 26, 2023

Fans have taken the obvious road in asking ‘why don’t the Seahawks run more play-action then?’ That reasoning is a bit like the old joke about ‘if the black box is the only thing that survives a plane crash, why not make the whole plane out of the black box material?’

Running play-action is not always practical. Especially if the pass rush is coming (as the Seahawks should absolutely expect it to be). If it opens up middle lanes for quick passes to tight ends, so be it. But with a still-developing offensive line problem and Geno Smith’s indecision, this could simply take too much time to rely on regularly in this game.

Geno Smith has been hesitant and has been double-clutching a lot lately. In the Cincinnati game, Shane Waldron left the tackles to fend for themselves without much assistance in pass protection. Both of these troubles have cost the Seahawks dearly.

If both cannot improve rapidly by using some of the game-enhancing tools we outlined above, we may witness another dominating performance by Myles Garrett on Sunday and another game lost the Seahawks ‘woulda coulda shoulda’ won, making that mountain climb through that tough stretch of games next month even harder.

Win the Turnover Battle

This is always critical — but even more so for this game.

The Seahawks have their heads just barely above water at +1 after that poor performance against Arizona, while the Browns are a miserable -6.

They will have to hold onto the ball in the running game, avoid any strip sacks and Geno Smith will need to cease and desist with his poor decision-making when he tries to plays outside himself.

Another big key: With the #1 defense in the NFL on the other side, a short field for the offense created by a turnover would be huge. For the obvious reason (less work to get in scoring range) but also a very curious secondary one. For all of their great defense, the Browns are one of the worst teams in the NFL in defending the red zone. They are currently allowing 70% of opposition red zone trips to result in a touchdown. I know the Seahawks have had trouble there but this is too good an opportunity to pass up. If they get there, they must take advantage.

This isn’t looking like a good 2024 draft

My horizontal board is taking shape with the players I needed to scout. The one position I’ve not spent any serious time on is cornerback but that feels like the position of least need for Seattle. I won’t publish it for a few weeks yet. There seems little point, with plenty of football still to be played and adjustments are inevitable.

I don’t think it’s a very good draft. It’ll be one of the worst I’ve covered. There’s a dearth of top-end talent. The Senior Bowl and combine can change things but as I keep noting, it’s hard to find first round players. It doesn’t help that the pass rush group is seriously underwhelming. There’s depth at some positions as I’ll touch on here. But even then, there are issues.

For example, take the much vaunted QB class. Caleb Williams has lost his last two games. Drake Maye just lost to a one-win Virginia team at home. Michael Penix Jr’s stock took a reality check when, for the first serious time this year when he faced pressure, his performance was really ugly against Arizona. Riley Leonard is trying to play through a high-ankle sprain and Quinn Ewers might be out for the rest of the year with a shoulder injury. Tyler Van Dyke missed Miami’s last game through injury while South Carolina’s rancid O-line is giving up more sacks than any other team in college football, making Spencer Rattler’s life miserable.

I feel for the people having to do mock drafts (to an extent). An October projection should really be about highlighting players with the potential to go in round one. You’re not actually ‘guessing’ what will happen. Yet there are so few players deserving of going early, it’s a challenge to even come up with 32 names. I keep seeing players touted as early picks who have no business receiving the hype they’re getting.

I read a report this week suggesting the Panthers have no interest in trading Brian Burns. I understand why. Carolina might have a lack of picks next year but giving a proven player away for picks in the next draft would be beyond stupid. While I’m sure they’d love an opportunity to add Marvin Harrison Jr or Brock Bowers to their offense with their native pick, having a selection in the 20’s (or 30’s) for trading away Burns makes no sense with this class.

What does this all mean for the Seahawks? It’s early. The gauntlet of games on the horizon will reveal how good this team is and where they need to improve.

However, I would suggest a couple of things.

Personally, I think it’s time for the Seahawks to invest in a quarterback. Not a token gesture ‘Alex McGough’ pick either.

The poor overall quality of this draft means they should consider being aggressive to acquire a QB if John Schneider sees a long-term solution within the class. Even if that isn’t viable, there are enough quarterbacks available next year for the Seahawks to identify one they like, draft them and if nothing else — take a chance on developing someone. They’ve successfully acquired talent across the roster in the last two years. They’ve positioned themselves to invest in a young QB — not necessarily to start right away but with an eye to the future.

The defensive tackles in this class are, for me, more day-two and beyond types. It’s a tiny tight end class, albeit with a trio of intriguing early round options. If the Seahawks aren’t going to go quarterback early, which may well be the case, then I think it’s looking increasingly viable they look to the trenches on offense.

O-line could be a strength in the 2024 draft

Is it a brilliant O-line class? We’re not talking about three surefire top-10 talents. We’re not talking about endless depth. Right now though, I’ve got more names in my ‘fringe first’ and ‘second round’ area for the O-line than any other position group.

Oklahoma’s Tyler Guyton tops the list for me. Athletic, big, powerful. I think he’s the Darnell Wright of the next draft. Olumuyiwa Fashanu has a lot of physical potential to play left tackle but I think Guyton is a ready-made beast.

Amarius Mims has missed time with injury and the ‘will-he-won’t-he’ transfer stuff at the end of last season — especially when he’s at Georgia — makes you wonder. Nevertheless, he is a crazy physical specimen — enormous size, length, minimal body-fat. You just don’t see many human’s who look like Mims. On appearance alone he screams top-15 pick.

I think Wisconsin left tackle Jack Nelson is seriously underrated and could probably play any tackle or guard position very well. Like Guyton and Mims, JC Latham is another very athletic, huge right tackle prospect. Kingsley Suamataia is an insane athlete who will win the combine. Joe Alt’s a bit overrated for me but could be a Mike McGlinchey-type prospect for someone if he switches over to the right side. Patrick Paul is inconsistent but has remarkable length and size and moves well for his frame.

I have all of those players — all tackles — graded in the first two rounds. None are sure-fire polished, ‘come in and be Andrew Thomas’ players. Yet they all have the potential to be very competent starters at the next level.

Pete Carroll is being really vague about Abraham Lucas’ injury situation. The tone he uses to discuss Lucas is troubling. It feels a little bit like we’re just waiting for the day they announce he’s out for the year. I’m sure we all hope it isn’t anything longer term than that given how much of a home-run that pick was a year ago. Even so, some of the names above can play guard or tackle. It wouldn’t be the worst idea, if they choose to go O-line early, to have depth, versatility and insurance.

There are also very attractive interior O-line options. These are not positions the Seahawks have typically drafted early in recent years. They’ve relied on middle-rounders. That said, Troy Fautanu looks a lot like Alijah Vera-Tucker to me. Both played left tackle with frames better suited to inside. Vera-Tucker was a top-15 pick and I wouldn’t bet against Fautanu matching that status. He has been excellent for Washington this year and looks the part of a good tackle or an excellent guard.

Cooper Beebe has been a rock for Kansas State for back-to-back years and looks like a plug-and-play guard. Jordan Morgan and Brandon Coleman, like Fautanu, appear better suited to kicking inside. All three players could provide the same versatility and ability to play multiple positions.

Graham Turner might be the best offensive lineman in the draft next year but the Duke left tackle has just over 32-inch arms. A switch to center is being projected although he’s good enough to play guard too. I think he’s an excellent player. The Seahawks have already invested in the center position with Olu Oluwatimi but Turner — along with Georgia’s Sedrick Van Pran and LSU’s Charles Turner — could easily be drafted in the top-50.

This might be where the true depth is in the 2024 draft, especially if the often-discussed quarterback class continues to step on rakes and/or get injured. Teams are always looking for good offensive linemen so don’t be surprised if the first frame is filled with O-liners, making up for the lack of options at other positions.

Quick note on the defensive tackles

I now have only four defensive tackles graded in the first two rounds. Jer’Zhan Newton (who is more of a 3-4 defensive end), McKinley Jackson, Howard Cross and T’Vondre Sweat. I have my doubts about Cross in this range (he’s undersized so has to test well) and Sweat will need to be in good shape for the combine and convince teams he didn’t just switch the light on in his final year at Texas.

There are good athletes eligible for the draft — namely Kris Jenkins and Leonard Taylor. I only have them graded in rounds three and four respectively. I also have Maason Smith currently in round four.

There are a lot of good DT’s set to reach free agency next year. Some might be available via tag-and-trade scenarios. If the Seahawks can create cap space — or want to be aggressive — they might be better off looking to the veteran market.

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