That was appalling. It was as bad as the Giants game. It was as bad as the Steelers game last season. I’d say it was worse than both. It reminded me of the Rams game in 2017. A total embarrassment.

The Seahawks were a disorganised mess. They made so many routine, high-school level errors. A center snapping the ball too high or standing on the quarterback’s toes. Geno Smith getting a penalty for throwing a ball at a Bills defender like a petulant child. Two players fighting after one of them makes a dumb mistake for a penalty. Another mistake by Dee Williams on a punt.

Not for the first time this season, the Seahawks didn’t appear ready to play. This time there are no ‘short week’ excuses either.

Nothing sums it up better than the running game. They keep saying every week they want to be able to run, that’s their identity. Today they managed 32 yards. The Bills had 166. Everyone runs against this defense. The Seahawks, meanwhile, simply cannot establish the kind of team they say they want to be.

It’s time to start being honest. Not enough people are. They are capable of beating a similarly flaky team like Atlanta. Great. Roll out the parade. They’re also capable of being embarrassed like they were today and losing four games out of five.

Good teams will lose games — but they don’t lose like this. It was non-competitive, slop-fest, undisciplined, waste of time football.

So let’s just admit it. The way this team is built isn’t capable of being more than a team that occasionally will flatter to deceive by beating someone like the Falcons. They won’t win a Super Bowl. They won’t make a playoff run. Playing like this, you can forget the playoffs altogether. Bin off the hubris. Use this as a reality check.

Questions need to be asked about how John Schneider has built this roster. If they have any more games like the Giants, 49ers and Bills beatings, questions will need to be asked about whether he deserves the chance to put things right, plus the staff he’s put together — rookie season or not — will need to be challenged. This isn’t good enough. I, like many, had high hopes for this staff. Are they bogged down by the makeup of the roster? Are they too inexperienced? Are they just not good enough? It’s painful that these questions feel necessary — but a performance like that makes this kind of conversation unavoidable.

There’s no benefit of the doubt to give when they are this bad. And they are bad on every level. There isn’t a single aspect of this team playing mostly error-free, consistent football.

They are not tough. They are not difficult to play against. At home they are awful. They’re 19-19 at home in front of fans since 2019. It’s a massive problem that not enough people talk about. The famous ‘home-field advantage’ in Seattle is gone. It is consigned to the history books. Now home games are full of away fans buying tickets because people are clinging on to Seahawks season tickets in the expensive seats as a side hustle.

This is something the people at the top of the franchise needs to sort out. On the field, the GM and the coaches also have to produce a team that can actually be competitive, physical and live up to all the talk of what they want to be.

They rely too much on the offense. If the offense can score points and apply scoreboard pressure, the defense has half a shot. When the offense stumbles and bumbles, which is happening too often, it’s game over. The defense is so bad, there is no resistance.

We’re eight games into the season and the run defense is still appalling. Even after the two trades. They’ve thrown loads at the D-line and it can’t stop the run or rush the passer consistently.

This is a disorganised team lacking on-field leadership. I’m starting to wonder if they have enough of it on the sideline too. If you can’t get your schemes going and you’re consistently easy to play against, that isn’t good enough.

Are they too inexperienced? They have a Head Coach who previously had only been a defensive coordinator in the NFL for two seasons. Their offensive coordinator had never coached in the NFL before he took the job. The defensive coordinator was previously only ever a position coach. Their special teams coordinator mainly worked for his dad at Michigan. I’m not sure having Leslie Frazier on the staff is enough. Are there simply too many people who haven’t done this before?

Sean McVay won coach of the year in his first year as the Rams Head Coach. His first act was to appoint Wade Phillips as his defensive coordinator.

The Seahawks are scrambling for an identity. If you want to be a tough, physical team you can’t be waiting to shop in the bargain bin at left guard then adding a center late in the summer who’s only just recovering from a serious knee injury. Neither can you pay a big fat whopping contract to an epic disappointment like Dre’Mont Jones on the D-line.

The O-line stinks and has done for too long. I get it, the whole league is struggling here. You can still ask legitimate questions as to why the Seahawks were basically just waiting to see who’s left at guard (Laken Tomlinson? I guess he’ll do), change their center every season and are playing musical chairs every week at right guard. No other team does this and has success.

Geno Smith has been one of the few positives this season. He isn’t the solution for the future though. The people clamouring to invest major money in him like the Seahawks are on the right track here need to give it a rest. The last thing they should be doing in their current form is giving Smith, who turns 35 next year in the final season of his current deal, a massive salary. They’ll just end up like so many other teams who are paying mega bucks for a quarterback who isn’t at the elite end. Why on earth would you do this? They’re so far away from being a team that should be handing a big contract to anyone at the moment.

The Seahawks have hovered around .500 for the last two years and they’re 4-4 now. This is what they are. Losses like this make a .500 record feel better than the reality.

Making rental trades before the deadline isn’t fixing anything. You need serious change to the roster. You need to actually build the team you want to be — like the Lions have done. This game should act as a brutal exposure of just how far away this team is.

My biggest fear is they end the season with an Atlanta-type win and everyone goes into the off-season talking like the team is just an off-season away. I said it before and after the Atlanta game and got pelters from some. They might need a six-win season to actually act as a slap in the chops to realise this team isn’t built for success.

You’re either on the right track or you’re not. The Seahawks aren’t.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

Last week we talked about the Seahawks having a game that could be a turning point for them in this young season. And boy did they deliver.

A 34-14 win over a hot Atlanta Falcons team in their building was impressive. The offense played a clean game with no turnovers, Ken Walker ran well despite being ill, the defense harassed Kirk Cousins and forced three turnovers despite giving rookies and Practice Squad players copious amounts of snaps.

They provided an answer about their season in that game. But it is only the beginning. To truly make the Atlanta win a turning point, they need to play well against Buffalo this week (and the Rams next week).

And so, we have another litmus test in the Buffalo Bills today. They are in a prime position to secure a playoff spot. They stand at 5-2 and are three games ahead of every team in their division.

How have the Seahawks fared against playoff teams?

In 2022, they were 2-5 against teams that ended up in the playoffs. In 2023, they went 3-7.

Hence the regime change.

A win against the Bills today would further legitimize this team and build momentum for an always-tough game against the Rams next week and a post-bye matchup with San Francisco. It is possible an insurmountable lead for the division title could be up for grabs by then.

If they beat Buffalo today, they take a step towards making that lofty thought a reality.

How do they do it?

It Starts and Ends with Josh Allen

No shock there. He is their MVP and one of the league’s most talented players. Containing, confusing, pressuring and outright stopping him is goal #1.

Just one stat to illustrate how the offense runs through him: Buffalo has had 77 third downs this year. The offense has called Allen’s number for a run or pass on 71 of those 77 plays. On only six plays have they handed the ball off to their running backs. That is 8% of third downs.

Defenses that are keying on Allen are more likely to make the stops. And they have been. Buffalo are converting third downs at a 33% rate, good for #25 in the NFL at this point. And not many teams have more three-and-outs this year. Why so much Josh Allen? And why so bad at converting third downs? They are having a first down problem. They run a ton of second-and-10’s and second-and-11’s and that limits their flexibility.

If the Seahawks defense can limit gains on first down, they will be well on their way to getting the ball back.

And while keying on him seems like an obvious statement, a lot of teams have been giving Allen plenty of room to operate. Many have been playing two-high safety and conceding the 7–15-yard zones, and Allen has been taking advantage of their generosity with his arm and his feet.

Why have teams been doing this? For some, it is their standard formation. For others, they prefer death by a million paper cuts to death by one killing blow of a deep pass.

The problem is, Buffalo has been terrible when they throw deep. They do not have a great deep threat, and Josh Allen typically responds to pressure with some scramble-hero-ball instead of throwing designed plays.

Evidence: Allen has an awful 32.26% completion rate on passes over 20 air yards through seven weeks.

A single-high strategy that gets more men into the intermediate zones would appear to be a way to defend him. The Houston Texans employed it in their Week Five matchup against Buffalo, and combined with 11 pressures (from a nice mix of getting pressure with four and blitzing) forced Allen into a horrid 9-for-30 day in a close loss to the Texans.

Teams have been keen to take advantage of the lack of weapons on the Buffalo offense. Josh Allen has had an uncharacteristic 55.4% completion rate when throwing to the right side of the field. He was far better there in previous years because he had Stefon Diggs frequently lining up there.

When you take away half of the field and do not have to respect the deep pass, it gives you a tremendous advantage.

That begs the question then: How are the Bills rolling at 5-2?

Answer: A combination of Josh Allen magic and getting lucky. Nobody walks the tightrope more than him – and by extension the Bills.

Allen can take that 55% rate to the right side of the field and turn it on its ear with his spectacular natural talent.

Teams that blitz Allen are holding him to a 50% completion rate. But they have also conceded seven touchdowns in seven games while blitzing.

Allen is a Top-5 player on PFF’s lists of Big-Time Throws and Turnover-Worthy Plays and yet he has zero interceptions on the year.

The Seahawks are just the team to make Allen have a market correction game. Coming off intercepting Kirk Cousins twice and stripping him for a game-turning touchdown, they have an excellent blend of pass-rush depth and ball hawking ability.

Allen is much better throwing to the left side of the field, with an impressive 69.23% completion rate. It will be fine matchup with Riq Woolen, who is currently conceding a 27.3% rate.

What of new acquisition Amari Cooper? Getting settled in and forming chemistry with Allen will take time. They will no doubt have a few routes for him to run, and Julian Love and Coby Bryant will need to be on their game.

As for Josh Allen running, I wonder if the Seahawks have someone who can shoot gaps and tackle him like a man.

Some Other Game Notes

-The Atlanta game was good for more reasons than one. Seattle got out to a great start and led 17-7 at halftime. They corrected a porous first-half run defense, stuffed the Falcons in the third quarter, and made them one-dimensional. They then stepped on the gas with the pass rush and forced Cousins into some terrible choices. That is the model for this game. The Bills are a horrible first-half offense and a great second-half one. After seven weeks, nobody in the NFL turns it around in the second half like Buffalo. The Seahawks need a repeat performance in this area.

-James Cook and Ray Davis are each averaging 4.2 yards per carry. Both are also averaging 1.9 yards before contact, one of the lowest averages for starting running backs in the NFL. If the Seahawks can successfully integrate Ernest Jones and make the transition back to WILL effective for Tyrell Dodson, and Byron Murphy can continue to be Byron Murphy, there is a real chance they can put even more of the game in Josh Allen’s hands.

-Terrell Bernard being out for this game could tip the balance. The Bills had already been conceding 5.1 yards per carry, one of the worst rates in the NFL. Of course, that includes a 271-yard disaster against Baltimore. Aside from that game, they are still at 4.42 yards per carry. Expect the Seahawks to simultaneously keep Josh Allen off the field and run up the score with a liberal mix of the running game. As well as get some play-action passes going with their backup Linebackers being forced into the lineup.

-Mike Jerrell is once again starting at Right Tackle. Buffalo will no doubt test him by putting Gregory Rousseau and A.J. Epenesa on him on nearly every play. He had a nice NFL debut last week ( here he is blocking out Matt Judon on a Ken Walker touchdown ) and it will be fascinating to see how he does with George Fant and Abe Lucas practicing again. It would not hurt to get him some occasional help from Pharaoh Brown or a chip from a releasing Running Back.

Ashton Jeanty (RB, Boise State)
I think he’ll be a top-10 pick. He has 914 yards after contact this season, 227 yards more than second placed Omarion Hampton on 29 fewer carries. He’s forced 56 missed tackles, way ahead of anyone else in college football. He runs through people, around people and he’s an unbelievable force of nature who should be the leader in the clubhouse for the Heisman.

Kaleb Johnson (RB, Iowa)
He’s taller and perhaps more elegant than Jeanty but he also packs a punch with 676 yards after contact — third most in college football. It’s been evident in multiple Iowa games this season that he was the best player on the field. I think he has star potential for the NFL and deserves a fringe first round grade.

Luke Lachey (TE, Iowa)
The son of a former first round Pro-Bowl offensive lineman, Lachey plays with that pedigree. He’s a terrific, willing blocker who does the dirty work very well. However, he’s also a very consistent, reliable receiver with better athletic qualities than I think people realise. He’s a complete tight end worthy of a second round grade and could be the next quality Iowa tight end to excel in the league.

Tyler Booker (G, Alabama)
I don’t think he’s had as many highlight-reel pancakes this year but Booker always seems to be on top of his blocks, winning 1v1. He hasn’t given up a sack this season. He’s big at 6-5 and 325lbs but flashes 5-star recruit athleticism when he has to get on the move. Booker is well known for his excellent character. I think he could be a solid, reliable guard at the next level and he warrants a grade in the top-40.

Donovan Jackson (G, Ohio State)
After an underwhelming 2023 season, Jackson returned to college instead of turning pro and it’s paid off. He’s returned to form and shone in games against Oregon and Iowa. A top athlete who can reportedly run a 1.59 split (I’m sceptical) he can also deliver a 30 inch vertical and an explosive 9-7 broad. These numbers and better performances could propel him into the top-40.

Josh Conerly (G, Oregon)
He’s playing left tackle for the Ducks but lacks the size and length to stick there at the next level. However, I absolutely love his playing style. Conerly gets after opponents — he is one of the most aggressive linemen I’ve seen in a while. He reminds me of a more compact version of Matthew Bergeron, taken 38th overall by the Falcons last year. I really like Conerly and think he’s a top-40 pick as a guard.

Jack Nelson (G/T, Wisconsin)
I’ve been watching Nelson for three years and it’s always struck me that while his tape is never spectacular — he just gets the job done. I don’t think he has the quickness with his kick-slide to stick at left tackle but do think he could be an excellent right tackle or guard. Personally I’d draft him to play left guard and think he deserves a day two grade.

Logan Jones (C, Iowa)
Jones is one of the most improved players in college football this year. He’s always been a fantastic athlete (36 inch vertical, 695lbs squat, 4.09 short shuttle) but his tape showed hit and miss technique and execution. This year he’s a different player completely. Everything has clicked. He’s only given up one sack and now the technique matches the elite athleticism. I’d draft him in the top-50 and within a few years I wouldn’t bet against him emerging as one of the better centers in the league.

Josaiah Stewart (EDGE, Michigan)
He wrecked the game against USC with an outstanding solo performance and he has consistently caused disruption thanks to a great burst off the edge, an aggressive mindset and a non-stop motor. His pass-rush win percentage of 28% leads all edge rushers by a mile — his team-mate TJ Guy is second with 21.8%. James Pearce Jr is at 20.8%. Keep an eye on Stewart for the Seahawks. Michigan defensive coordinator Wink Martindale loves him apparently and Martindale was Mike Macdonald’s mentor back in the day. I think he’s a day two pick and size/testing will determine how early he goes.

TJ Sanders (DT, South Carolina)
I think he’s the second best defensive tackle in the draft. His pass-rush win percentage is eighth among defensive tackles (13.3%) and he has an ability to wreck games from the interior that most players don’t have. He’s very quick, disruptive, good with his hands and he’s better than other bigger name DT’s eligible for 2025.

Nick Emmanwori (S, South Carolina)
What a player. He’s 6-3 and 227lbs but plays with better range than some smaller safeties. He has four interceptions this season, returning two for touchdowns. He has a NFL passer rating of just 20.5 against when targeted. He splits his snaps between free safety (101), the slot (100) and the box (221). He has as good a chance as anyone to be a Kyle Hamilton style safety and I think he deserves a fringe first round grade — provided he tests as well as I think he will.

Jalon Walker (LB, Georgia)
He was the best player on the field against Texas. Walker acted mostly as an impact edge rusher in the past but has now converted into a full-on modern-day hybrid. You can play him as a conventional linebacker and let him read/react to play downfield. He’s agile enough to drop. Then on passing downs he can rush the edge. He blasted Kelvin Banks Jr last weekend. He will be a high first round pick if the testing matches the tape.

DJ Giddens (RB, Kansas State)
I like running backs who run through contact and Giddens has 602 yards after contact this season — good for fourth in college football. I graded him as a day two pick last year and was surprised he returned to school. He’s not missed a beat and at times looks like a poor man’s Alvin Kamara with his running style, elusiveness, strength and versatility.

Jordan James (RB, Oregon)
A powerful runner who dishes out punishment and loves to get his head down and embrace contact. He delivers explosive runs to go with the power, generated from a lower center of gravity on a thick build. He has 23 +10 yard runs this season, two fewer than Ashton Jeanty and three fewer than Kaleb Johnson. I think James will be excellent value on day two.

Ricky White III (WR, UNLV)
One of my very favourite players to track this season. White has a frame reminiscent of Nuk Hopkins. I think he plays with the same kind of nouse and natural talent as Hopkins showed at Clemson. He’s a natural hands catcher, he tracks the ball in the air brilliantly, he can create late separation and he delivers the key conversions and the big plays. I can’t believe he isn’t talked about more. Testing is important but I think he could be a second rounder.

Harold Fannin Jr (TE, Bowling Green)
You don’t expect to be moved to excitement watching a Bowling Green tight end but Fannin Jr is the real deal. He isn’t asked to do any real blocking (only four blocking snaps this season so far) but as a receiver he’s highly dynamic — showing off great athleticism, eye-catching grabs and he could be a X-factor weapon in the right NFL offense. He’s a day two talent.

Xavier Restrepo (WR, Miami)
A pillar of consistency, Restrepo just seems destined to come into the league and be a reception machine. He can run all the routes, his hands are very safe (only one drop this season so far) and while he’s not going to run a blistering forty — he’s quick enough. It won’t be a surprise if, like a few other receivers over the years, he goes on day two and everyone wonders how the hell that happened in a few years time.

Nicholas Singleton (RB, Penn State)
His athleticism really stands out. He looks like a Penn State athlete. Singleton is a great combination of explosive traits, quickness and power. I think his best football might come at the next level and there’s an untapped potential here that could really be harnessed. I’ve given him a day two grade.

Tyler Warren (TE, Penn State)
The heart-beat of the Penn State offense. Warren lines up at quarterback and throws the ball, he’ll plow ahead in short-yardage situations as a ball-carrier, he blocks and he’s their most dynamic pass-catching weapon. Drew Allar tends to force the ball to him. He’s big, athletic and he can make spectacular grabs. Depending on testing he’s a fringe first rounder.

Garrett Nussmeier (QB, LSU)
No other quarterback eligible for 2025 has thrown as many NFL caliber throws as Nussmeier. His anticipation, accuracy and processing is on a different level. His arm is good not great and he lacks the athleticism to be a creative off-platform thrower or an escape artist under pressure. He also needs to cut out the mistakes. However, there’s so much technical ability to work with here. I have him among four quarterbacks with second round grades (I have no quarterbacks with a first round grade at the moment).

Mason Taylor (TE, LSU)
The son of former Miami pass-rusher Jason Taylor has everything needed to be a very good NFL tight end. He’s incredibly quick and dynamic for his size and can slip into coverage holes with ease to make big plays. His run after the catch ability is unusually good for his position. As a blocker there’s potential to be above average at the next level. Taylor has a second round grade on my horizontal board.

Jake Majors (C, Texas)
The only Texas O-liner, for me, who played well against Georgia. Majors is a former four-star recruit and his athleticism shows on tape. He’s very technically sound and gets his hands on opponents quickly. He has a strong back to stall bull-rush attempts. He’s played at a high level all year and has the makings of a long-term NFL center who should go on day two.

Kurtis Rourke (QB, Indiana)
I didn’t expect to be as impressed with Rourke as I was, given nobody’s really talking about him from a NFL perspective. He likes to attack opponents and you see complex throws deep to the sideline into tight windows. He delivers over the middle. He scans the field well to find open receivers. His arm is decent and prior to his injury, he was leading one of the best functioning offense’s in college football. I’ve given him a day two grade and hope he can return to face Michigan and Ohio State.

Josh Kreutz (C, Illinois)
Kreutz is a no-nonsense, physical tough guy who’ll beat you up in a head-on situation. The son of NFL great Olin Kreutz, he isn’t much of an operator in space and isn’t often seen reaching to the second level. He likes to attack 1v1 at the line of scrimmage and he does an excellent job winning those battles with an aggressive attitude. I think he’s a third rounder like his dad who could end up having a good career.

Kyle Monangai (RB, Rutgers)
Rutgers has this knack of chucking solid running backs into the league and Monangai is a lot of fun to watch. He has 550 yards after contact this season, good for eighth most in college football. His gait makes him tough to bring down and he finishes runs. He can also deliver explosive plays with 22 runs of +10 yards. I have him graded in round three.

Josh Williams (RB, LSU)
He works in a rotation and it’s clear that LSU really like their younger, upcoming backs to provide a spark. However, every time I see Williams run I think ‘this guy can play’. He’s well sized at 5-9 and 210lbs, has an aggressive running style and could lead a rushing attack for many other teams. He wears the legendary #18 jersey for LSU. He’ll not be drafted early, if at all, but I’d back him to make a roster and maybe provide a rotational impact somewhere.

Billy Edwards Jr (QB, Maryland)
He really caught the eye when I studied his tape. He’s unheralded by the media but he can deliver the ball to all areas of the field, he can make gains with his legs and he does a good job on third downs. He plays on a team that has given up 69 pressures this year (31st most in CFB) yet he’s only been responsible for three personally. He leads college football for big time throws (21), his turnover worthy play numbers compare well (7) and when under pressure he has a BTT/TWP ratio of 6/2. He might not declare for the 2025 draft but he’s one to watch.

Ja’Quinden Jackson (RB, Arkansas)
Yet another running back with a physical running style, good size, finishes his runs and has an explosive element to his game (20 runs of 10+ yards this season). This draft class is loaded with running backs who can start or at least contribute in a one-two punch at the next level. I have Jackson graded in round three currently.

Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College)
He has 30 pressures this season (fifth most in college football) and nine sacks. However, beyond the stats the most impressive thing with Ezeiruaku is how he moves in space. He’s adept at holding the edge, reading and reacting. His closing speed can then kick into gear and he flies to the ball — so he’ll have no trouble fitting as a 3-4 OLB. He can also dip under a tackle 1v1 and straighten to the quarterback. Testing will determine how early he goes but I’d suggest he’s a day two pick.

Mason Graham (DT, Michigan)
For me he’s the complete defensive tackle and vying with Travis Hunter and Will Johnson to be the most talented player eligible for the 2025 draft. He can win with pure power or quickness, he can counter with a spin move or a push-pull, he’s stout against the run. He has 21 pressures this season, fourth most among defensive tackles. Graham is going to be a top pro at the next level and play for a long time. He’s a top-five pick in this class for me.

Players I think are a bit overrated

Will Campbell (T, LSU)
Short arms (32 inches) mean he’ll almost certainly have to kick inside, he’s struggled in pass-pro this year and I’ve always been left wanting more aggression in his play. I have him as a day two guard.

Kenneth Grant (DT, Michigan)
Good athlete he may be but I think his tape has been average this season. He’s playing next to one of the best defensive tackles we’ve seen in recent history and has minimal impact. I think he’s a mid-rounder based mostly on athletic upside.

Nic Scourton (DE, Texas A&M)
A lot of these bigger edge rushers come into the league and never really amount to anything. I don’t think he has the quickness to be a top pass rusher at the next level and will be limited to early down work. He only has three sacks this year and 19 pressures. I think he’s a third round type for a team that wants to add a bit of edge robustness.

JT Tuimoloau & Jack Sawyer (Ohio State)
I’m just not convinced either are dynamic difference makers at the next level.

Deontae Lawson (LB, Alabama)
I thought his build and ability to attack around the LOS was worth mentioning as a fourth round type but suddenly he’s being talked up a lot more. I think there’s a lack of quickness that will make him a one-dimensional linebacker at the next level.

Carson Beck (QB, Georgia)
I know people are increasingly dropping him due to his performances this year but I think his ball-placement and accuracy has always been an issue and it’s only getting worse with every passing week. I don’t think he has enough upside to look beyond that and likely isn’t a NFL starter.

Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)
With better weapons and a functioning offense this year, Allar has looked better. I still think he reminds me of Mike Glennon. There’s an awkwardness to his mobility that puts me off and while he is capable of making some eye-catching passes with his size and arm — he only has a paltry eight ‘big time throws’ this year compared to four turnover worthy plays. I think he’s a day three type.

This week I spent some time studying Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke. He burst onto the scene this season with the Hoosiers starting 7-0 under intriguing Head Coach Curt Cignetti.

I’m not familiar with offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan (no relation to Kyle) but the first thing that stood out to me was how well the Indiana offense functions. Their pass protection is good, the receivers run crisp routes and everything is effective, on time and it works.

Rourke certainly plays his part in this — he gets the ball out quickly, he seems to have a strong grasp of the scheme and as the distributor of the football, he is the focal point. Yet it’s been quite a while since I watched an offense function at this level. Cignetti and his staff deserve a lot of credit.

From a draft perspective it’s actually helpful that Rourke isn’t playing against Washington this weekend due to a thumb injury. Now we get to see how the offense operates without him to compare. Hopefully he’ll be back for contests against Michigan’s NFL-heavy defense and Ohio State — two vital games that will help shape his stock (and Indiana’s season).

With all this in mind, how do you assess his play? The first thing I’d say is he’s always in attack mode and I like that. He’s willing to go after every area of the field. Often a highly functioning offense includes a lot of cheap short passes and run after the catch situations. That isn’t the case with Indiana. They go for chunks of yardage with their throws.

I think he scans the field very well. You can see him waiting for routes to develop. He does a good job with his ball placement and he’s mastered the back-shoulder throw. There are some impressive passes on tape that I would compare to Michael Penix last year where he throws from the far hash to the opposite sideline with timing, velocity and accuracy. He doesn’t have Penix’s arm talent but that’s not a knock, few do.

Indiana’s giving up just 2.5 sacks per game which is pretty good — it’s the 29th best rate in college football. In comparison, Garrett Nussmeier at LSU is being sacked four times a game — the second highest rate. Everyone talks up the two LSU tackles as NFL prospects but they haven’t played well this season.

Part of Indiana’s low sack rate, though, is the quickness with which Rourke distributes the ball. There’s never any messing about. Yet while watching tape, I didn’t see him under constant duress at any point.

PFF tracks pressures allowed/created by the quarterback and not the O-line. Here are the numbers for the season so far:

Shedeur Sanders — 20
Garrett Nussmeier — 13
Cam Ward — 10
Brady Cook — 10
Carson Beck — 9
Seth Henigan — 9
Jalen Milroe — 9
Jaxson Dart — 9
Drew Allar — 8
Miller Moss — 8
Quinn Ewers — 7
Kyle McCord — 6
Will Howard — 5
Billy Edwards Jr — 3
Kurtis Rourke — 3

I think this is a combination of everything clicking for Indiana on offense — the quarterback getting the ball out quickly and the protection being good. It’s a positive all round. Can Rourke do this at the next level? Will he get an environment that allows him to be this economic and effective? That’s a question teams will ask.

He only has 10 ‘big time throws’ for the season compared to six ‘turnover worthy plays’. So while he’s PFF’s top graded passer in college football currently — he’s not asked to complete many difficult throws. Meanwhile, the six turnover worthy plays within this environment is a bit of a concern — because you wonder if that number grows in a harder pro environment.

Here are some of the names among the top ‘big time throw’ leaders this season:

Billy Edwards Jr — 21
Kyle McCord — 21
Cam Ward — 20
Shedeur Sanders — 19
Seth Henigan — 15
Garrett Nussmeier — 14
Jaxson Dart — 14
Kurtis Rourke — 10

Here are the TWP numbers for the list above:

Kyle McCord — 11
Cam Ward — 9
Jaxson Dart — 8
Billy Edwards Jr — 7
Seth Henigan — 7
Garrett Nussmeier — 7
Kurtis Rourke — 6
Shedeur Sanders — 4

Now here are the BTT/TWP numbers when a quarterback is under pressure:

Cam Ward — 8/4
Kyle McCord — 7/3
Billy Edwards Jr — 6/2
Shedeur Sanders — 6/2
Kurtis Rourke — 5/2
Garrett Nussmeier — 2/4
Jaxson Dart — 2/4
Seth Henigan — 2/5

I think this stat is interesting because it highlights how pressure has effected quarterbacks in a bigger way than others. The fact that half of Rourke’s big time throws have come when he’s under pressure is a positive. Meanwhile, only two of Nussmeier’s 12 came under pressure.

Note how well Billy Edwards Jr rates in these categories — a player I wrote about here.

Rourke has good size, a very decent arm and he does deliver passes with touch to varying levels of the field. There are certain offensive schemes where you can imagine him having a lot of success. He’s another player who I think would work very well in the Shanahan system — one that lays the table for a quarterback and they have to read their keys and distribute the ball quickly and accurately.

I also think he’d look great in the DeBoer/Grubb offense we saw at Washington. Thus, he might be considered a fit in Seattle. He definitely has the size and attacking mindset I think John Schneider likes.

I’m increasingly convinced that you need a level of mobility, escapability and an ability to play off-platform if you’re going to thrive in the NFL. Rourke is not agile or a great mover. He’s not terrible either. Looking at some of his Ohio tape I thought he was a bit leaner and more mobile/nimble. He looks bigger and a bit slower at Indiana.

There are examples where he does get out of the pocket and he can deliver on the run. He can also scramble for a few yards when the opportunity emerges and he can manipulate the pocket to extend. At the next level though, where everyone is faster, I’m not sure he’ll be effective to extend, create and play off-platform.

Overall I was impressed. His ball placement is good, he’s executing the offense at a high level, he attacks the defense to every level, he’s a big, tall passer with a good arm and I’m intrigued to see more.

I think you have to look for special physical qualities in college QB’s and/or look at the players who are performing in situations that are transferable (eg — anticipation throwing, dealing with a lot of pressure, third down conversions etc). I’m not sure Rourke has special qualities or the transferable situational tape — but there’s something here that at the very least makes him interesting from a NFL perspective.

For what it’s worth, Indiana has the seventh best third down conversion percentage in college football (50.8%). I will go back and track Rourke in third down situations before the end of the year.

This isn’t a great quarterback class. I don’t think it’s as bad as 2022 — but I don’t currently have anyone I feel comfortable grading in round one. It won’t be a surprise if Rourke’s star rises if he can return to health and play well in the big games coming up for Indiana.

I wrote some thoughts down on the Ernest Jones IV trade earlier (have a read if you missed them). I was also on with Puck Sports shortly after the deal was confirmed to provide some near-instant reaction. You can watch our conversation below:

The Seahawks are trading LB Jerome Baker and a fourth-round pick to Tennessee for LB Ernest Jones IV, a source tells me.

— Brady Henderson (@BradyHenderson) October 23, 2024

Brady Henderson has confirmed the Seahawks are sending a 2025 fourth rounder to the Titans, plus Jerome Baker, for the former Rams linebacker Ernest Jones.

My initial thought is I don’t know what to make of this move. While it’ll be a decent immediate benefit if the Seahawks gain better run defense and health at the linebacker position, Jones only cost the Titans a swap of 2026 late round picks a few weeks ago (a sixth for a fifth). Now, seven games into the season, his price has suddenly jumped to a fourth rounder in 2025.

That doesn’t really make sense in terms of value from a Seahawks perspective.

Furthermore, it’s very much a rental deal. Jones is out of contract in the off-season. It’s possible this is a trade with a view to retaining him beyond 2024 if things work out. If not, they just spent a non-throwaway pick on a short-term measure that I’m not entirely sure will be a quick fix.

It could be. Jones’ run defense grade last season, per PFF, was a superb 90.0. The year before it was a 78.8. Let’s not forget though that he was playing behind Aaron Donald in LA. Without Donald, Jones’ run defense grade dropped to 68.4. Jerome Baker’s was a 62.6.

It also speaks a little bit to a lack of trust in Tyrice Knight, who they recently used a fourth round pick on, that they felt obliged to spend a decent amount to replace Baker, rather than just give Knight more opportunities.

I’m sure someone will point out that if he leaves as a free agent next off-season he could get a contract that returns a comp pick to Seattle. I’d suggest that might be unlikely given he was dealt by the Rams for so little to Tennessee and now he’s been traded again to the Seahawks. Perhaps Mike Macdonald can elevate his play to the level where a big contract is forthcoming? The Rams made a decision they wouldn’t pay him, which is why he wanted a trade in the first place.

The Seahawks are scheduled to have two fourth round picks in 2025 thanks to a comp pick — so you could reason it’s a worthwhile shot to see if Jones can provide an answer for Seattle. It just all feels a bit like a ‘band-aid’. That once again the team is trying to fix issues during a season — and this one (run defense) has been around for too long now, through two Head Coaches.

I’ve not studied Jones’ play enough in LA or Tennessee to have an opinion on whether he’s likely to become a figurehead for the defense. Per PFF, he had a breakout 2023 but has otherwise not had spectacular grades. He has a reputation for being a physical, thumping linebacker. They do need more of that. If he plays lights out, adds further tone-setting to the defense, shores up the run and eventually signs an extension — spending a fourth rounder won’t be a problem in the slightest. The risk of a rental is always that, on the other side, if he just walks away in a few months it won’t be great.

I look forward to watching him play and seeing if Seattle can fix their problems defending the run. I’m just not keen on the price — Baker plus a 2024 fourth rounder for 10 games of Jones, when the Titans didn’t even give up a pick to acquire him before the season — doesn’t sound right.

Georgia vs Texas

John Schneider attended this game, unsurprisingly given it featured a number of future NFL players. I’ve got some Schneider-related thoughts coming later in the piece.

This was a really disappointing showing from Texas. Their offensive line, featuring big name players at left tackle, center and right tackle, lost the battle in the trenches. Steve Sarkisian’s game plan felt overly conservative in the first half and they couldn’t get anything going. The run wasn’t working and it put a lot of pressure on Quinn Ewers against a feverish Georgia front seven. Ewers shrank in the moment, became flustered and the entire Texas offense needed half-time to re-set and get back on track. By that point, they were already trailing 23-0.

On Ewers, he did not play well. The two big question marks with him going into the season were health and consistency. The fact he’s had an injury and since returning has looked a shadow of the player who started the season, speaks to the problem. After three years at Texas you have to ask whether he’ll ever be able to stay healthy and avoid being a rollercoaster quarterback — looking excellent some of the time and then having games where he looks like this.

I do think some of the reaction to the weekend has been OTT though. I’ve seen people online clipping snaps blaming him for the protection issues, making unrealistic expectations of the quarterback during a game where Texas effectively ran into a defensive buzzsaw. The O-line had no push in the running game and once the scoreline grew things unravelled. There were also drops, including on a trick-play that could’ve opened things up. Ewers’ adjusted completion percentage for the game was 71.8% compared to the reality of 58.1%. That’s a considerable difference.

It doesn’t excuse the quarterback playing well within himself but I think an inordinate portion of the blame has been put on his shoulders. There was plenty to go around in that first half.

More on Ewers later.

The best player on the field by some distance was Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker. His ability to play the edge and win 1v1 adds to his roaming athleticism and power as a conventional linebacker. I think he’s overtaken Abdul Carter as the best versatile defensive chess piece for the 2025 draft — although both players will be high picks. I think he’d be an ideal player for Mike Macdonald’s defense but he’s unlikely to be in range. In a draft class with very limited legit round one options, I think teams will take a chance on both Walker and Carter early.

Walker finished with three sacks and led the Georgia defense in tackles (eight).

Mykel Williams has missed a lot of the season through injury and he was spelled in this game too because he isn’t 100% — yet he still produced two big sacks and flashed the kind of talent that could move him into the early part of round one. Can he build on this performance and finish the year playing with this level of impact? He’s a fantastic looking inside/out rusher in terms of physical build but he’s never had consistent production.

The third key player for Georgia was Trevor Etienne. He ran for 87 yards on 19 carries but his impact felt greater that his stat-line. He showed great suddenness and dynamism hitting the line and was by far the best skill player on show in the game. He deserves a solid day two grade and could be an electric complementary runner as a one-two punch at the next level. It’s a tremendous looking running back class for 2025.

As mentioned, Texas’ O-line was a let down.

Kelvin Banks Jr doesn’t have a left tackle frame and will almost certainly need to kick inside to guard at the next level but he had a torrid time against Walker when they lined up against each other. He gave up a couple of pressures and a sack but in his first real test of the season, it didn’t feel like he was making a case to stick at tackle with his frame. I do think he could be an excellent guard but not the top-10 pick left tackle pick some are making out.

Cameron Williams the right tackle is admired by some online but he looked lost with his technique. He clearly has the frame to be a NFL tackle but his feet and body weren’t aligned and he gave up a number of pressures. He’s started to get some draft buzz but from a Seahawks perspective, I think drafting him would create another Germain Ifedi situation. He looks the part but he badly needs more game experience and time to work on his technique. He gave up four pressures and a sack against Georgia and on some reps looked all over the place.

I’m a big fan of center Jake Majors and in fairness of all the players on the line, he was the one who played well. He has a good anchor, he’s nicely sized for the position, he’s a good athlete as a former four-star recruit and I’ve graded him firmly in the day two range. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up having a very good NFL career.

As was the case against Alabama, Carson Beck was awful. He had two interceptions and nearly had a third in the first half alone. His ball placement was wildly erratic again. He makes his receivers work hard on nearly every throw, leading to tipped pass interceptions and incompletions that should be routine catches.

It didn’t get much better after half-time. He came out throwing near-interceptions again before finally landing one, leading to all of the drama around a flag for DPI that was eventually overturned — with fans throwing bottles and beer cans onto the field in protest at the initial call. Beck simply didn’t seem to be on the same page as his receiver — adding to the concerns about accuracy and ball placement.

Beck has a day three grade on my horizontal board and I wouldn’t draft him. I don’t think he can start at quarterback at the next level with what he’s shown this year. Without Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey he looks lost. He’s thrown eight interceptions and it could’ve been more. I don’t see upside to make up for the lack of accuracy and anticipation. He isn’t someone, in my opinion, with a NFL starting future.

I feel differently with Ewers from an upside perspective. When you watch his games against the likes of Alabama and Washington last season, and Michigan this season (I know Michigan aren’t good — but their defense has a number of first and second day NFL draft picks) you see top-end ability that translates.

NFL teams have been monitoring Ewers for a long time. I appreciate recruiting grades mean little when you’ve had three or four years of college tape to analyse — but it does provide an indication on how people felt about Ewers that he was graded above even Caleb Williams within the 2022 recruiting class.

According to 247 Sports, a recruiting service, Ewers became only the sixth ever player to receive a 1.0000 ranking in their composite — along with Jadeveon Clowney, Robert Nkemdiche, Rashan Gary, Vince Young and Ernie Sims. Not all of these players went on to have amazing NFL careers but the talent and potential was clear — and all were very highly touted as a consequence and drafted early.

I think to anyone who watches a lot of quarterback tape — the good flashes from Ewers make it fairly obvious why he was so highly rated. He has natural gifts as a passer that very few quarterbacks have. The deep throws he delivered against Alabama last year are some of the best you’ll see at any level of football. His whip-like release is, at times, reminiscent of Aaron Rodgers. There is no doubt in my mind that there are scouts and GM’s out there who appreciate Ewers’ upside.

I suspect most of these same evaluators will also share the concerns we’ve raised on this blog about his ability to stay healthy and play with consistency. The importance of the position means some teams will believe it’s worthwhile taking a chance on him to see if they can coach him into the prospect his talent indicates he can be. There will be others that scoff at the prospect of that idea based on games like the one on Saturday.

I don’t think Schneider was in Texas just to watch Ewers. Far from it. I bet he was a big reason why he attended that game though. He has the kind of natural gifts I think Schneider is waiting for at the position. I think he wants to invest in a special talent — it’s just so difficult to find those players at this position. It’s why he doesn’t ‘just take shots’ at quarterback. Ewers has the talent even if there are other issues that are a concern.

He’s not typically the kind of quarterback I’d expect Schneider to like. I think it’s pretty clear he has a type, as we’ve discussed many times. This is the GM who traded for Charlie Whitehurst and Drew Lock. He really rated Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. He likes big, athletic gunslingers in the physical mould of Brett Favre — who he worked with in Green Bay. Russell Wilson didn’t have the height but he too was a great example of that same playing style. I reckon Schneider was probably a fan of Drake Maye and watching him for the Pats on Sunday, it was easy to think he’s a Schneider type.

Ewers neither has the frame nor the mad creative skills to improv and make things happen. I think he’s a good athlete and could maybe develop those traits. Nevertheless, I’d still keep an eye on Ewers. If he isn’t going to go as early as some thought a few weeks ago, it could play into Seattle’s hands. I do think Schneider is set on drafting a QB — not necessarily to start right away but at least to develop in the background — as we saw the Packers do with both Rodgers and Jordan Love. It’s also worth remembering they spent a second round pick on Brian Brohm shortly after using a first rounder on Rodgers.

The Packers mentality has been to draft to develop. I can imagine Ewers being someone Seattle invests in to see if he can progress in their system. I’m not convinced Sam Howell has done enough to feel like that development slot is taken. And they do need to keep adding youth at the position with Geno Smith now 34 and contracted only until the end of 2025 (I don’t believe a big extension, that some have called for, is likely — and believe they will take this year-to-year with Geno).

I think Schneider means it when he says he wants to draft a quarterback every year — it’s simply that the options haven’t been there. He might be prepared to take a shot on Ewers, using a pick to let him sit and develop for a year or two. It might not work out, as it didn’t for Brohm in Green Bay. I just wouldn’t be shocked if Seattle thought Ewers’ talent was worth investing in.

I say all this while acknowledging that in the presence of Schneider on Saturday there were times in the Georgia game where he looked small, slightly timid and a little bit like a deer in the headlights. He had six turnover worthy plays compared to just one big time throw. Yet you only have to put on the Alabama game last year, seeing him go on the road in the toughest environment and winning with style and pro-level skill to understand why he shouldn’t be written off.

Ewers would be a good quarterback for Kalen DeBoer at Alabama. He has the skill-set to work within the system he operated at Fresno State and Washington. I’m not sure it’s likely that Ewers stays another year in college and transfers for a second time — but stranger things have happened. DeBoer really elevated Michael Penix and Jake Haener’s stock. That also brings you onto the thought that he also might fit Ryan Grubb.

It’ll be interesting to see if Ewers can return to his best form for the rest of the season and where his stock settles. At the moment I think he’s more top-50 than top-10. I don’t have any quarterback graded as a legit first round prospect for 2025. The Seahawks have other upcoming needs — particularly on the O-line and potentially other positions like linebacker. Yet eventually they will draft a quarterback to give themselves a chance to develop a long-term solution. It will be a far better plan to do that with Geno Smith under contract than forcing a rookie to play when he isn’t ready.

A final note on this game — I think Texas tight end Gunnar Helm — not a lofty draft prospect coming into the season — had a really good couple of catches in the fourth quarter to highlight how he will be a nice option for someone, probably at the top-end of day three. He’s having a good season.

Other notes from week eight

— Josh Kreutz the Illinois center is showing a lot of promise. He anchored the line well against Michigan — handling Kenneth Grant with ease and holding his own against top-10 pick Mason Graham. While it’s true Graham also had his wins — including a rag-doll push-pull move in the second quarter — Kreutz played fundamentally sound football, understood his assignments and did a mostly terrific job blocking straight-on. He’s tough, physical and was able to move defenders off the spot to creating running lanes. His pass-pro was sound. He’s not a center who loves to get up to the second level or move around to block in space but I think there’s a lot to like here. His father is the famous former Bears center Olin Kreutz — so he has the best bloodlines imaginable. I think he could be a day-two pick. He’s a fourth-year junior so might not declare but I hope he does. I want Seattle to build a leadership core through a tough, physical offensive line. Kreutz has the kind of playing mentality that fits that idea. He’s my fourth ranked center behind Logan Jones, Jake Majors and Parker Brailsford.

— I feel validated in the way we’ve cut through the hype on Jalen Milroe. For weeks people talked about his major development as a passer. The reality was exposed in brutal fashion against Tennessee. He didn’t look like a pro-prospect in this game. He was inaccurate and had an interception to end the game. If you put a cap on his running ability and force him to play as a more conventional passer, he can’t do it. You’d be drafting him mainly to be a threat with his legs, not with his arm. While he might be a tremendous runner — I don’t feel comfortable drafting a quarterback whose best characteristic isn’t throwing the football. I’m starting to think he might be better transferring to another school for next season, somewhere with a track record of producing highly successful running quarterbacks. I think Kalen DeBoer needs a better passer and Milroe, on the evidence he’s shown this season, should consider whether a change of scenery and a fresh start would be best for his career. I think it’s astonishing that analysts for the Athletic and PFF have been talking about Milroe as a first rounder or the top quarterback eligible for the draft.

— South Carolina’s defense is legit. I’ve been a big fan of Nick Emmanwori for months and he’s my #2 graded safety behind only Malaki Starks. He had two picks against Oklahoma, with the first showing off great range for a man his size. The second was pretty much thrown straight to him but he returned it for a pick-six. He’s asked to do a lot for a defensive back who is listed above 220lbs. There are some intriguing physical qualities here and they’ve shown up game after game. I think he’s solidly in the round two range at the moment. The Sooners had no answer for the defensive line. TJ Sanders and Tonka Hemingway dominated the interior. Kyle Kennard might not be the greatest athlete but he wins cleanly off the edge to create pressure every week. Linebacker Demetrius Knight seemed to be all over the field. This is a great looking unit with a lot of talent.

— Cam Ward played very well for Miami against Louisville and the Hurricanes remain unbeaten. I have to say though — there are a few other quarterbacks in this class wishing they had Ward’s schedule this year. Louisville’s defense was a shambles. Every week Miami’s opponent forgets how to play football in the fourth quarter. Ward had some excellent, highlight-reel throws in this contest. He also had some misses, a dropped interception and he took some sacks. I’d much rather spend every week complimenting Ward for the growth he’s shown — but while people keep projecting him as a high first round pick, I feel obliged to push back against the hype. He has improved his stock but I think he’s gone from a day three pick to a day two pick this season. That should be celebrated but I think some of the hype goes too far. As we’ve discussed a lot already this season, he still carries some old habits from the Washington State days.

— A final word on two players I’ve talked about a lot recently. Ricky White III had another touchdown for UNLV vs Oregon State. He ran a slant and extended his arms well away from his body to make a difficult catch look easy. I really believe White III has an X-factor quality, he reminds me a little bit of Nuk Hopkins at Clemson and he’s one of my favourite players in the 2025 class. Meanwhile, Bowling Green tight end Harold Fannin Jr had 10 catches for 171 yards against Kent State. He is a playmaker at his position and one of a number of exciting tight ends set to enter the NFL.

I will post an article this week discussing some of my favourite players in the class who could fit with the Seahawks.

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen

In a seventeen game NFL season, every week counts. Every week can be pointed to as a turning point for a team, one that cuts both ways. The beginning of something good, or the game fans point to that just confirms that the wheels that were wobbly have truly fallen off.

It is no small matter that the Seahawks have dropped three games in a row and have tumbled from an exhilarating 3-0 start to a maddening 3-3 team with more questions than answers.

They had a mini-bye to take stock of their program and reassess some things. Frankly, everything needed a close look. Execution in all three phases, player motivation and play calling.

Sporting a -5 turnover ratio while giving up over 500 rushing yards in three losses will sure make you look at things differently.

They will need every bit of coaching they can get for this game against the Falcons. While it is a relief to get some of their Defensive Linemen like Boye Mafe and Byron Murphy back, now the defensive backfield is being hammered by injuries. Starting Cornerbacks Tre Brown and Riq Woolen are out. Safety Rayshawn Jenkins was placed on Injured Reserve. Right Tackle Stone Forsythe will be replaced by Mike Jerrell, who is getting his first-ever NFL snaps in the NFL.

Every team has ‘roster decimation games’ like this at least once or twice a season. It is up to the coaches to know the skills of the healthy players they have available and tailor a game plan accordingly. Primarily that means leaning on and accentuating your personnel’s strengths and minimizing their weaknesses.

It is needed particularly this week, as Atlanta looks very capable at 4-2. After a clunky opening loss to the Steelers, they have won four of five games — including all three of their division games. Their lone loss was to Kansas City and they twice were in the red zone late in the fourth quarter and did not come away with any points in a five point loss.

With a defense that has been far softer than expected, an offense that has too often been one-dimensional and special teams that are almost always an adventure, the Seahawks will need to play smart, tough, dedicated football to come home with a win today.

Those are the real points to keep an eye on:

— Can the defense take good angles and make the tackles they should?

— Can the offense run the ball?

— Can Geno Smith deliver under duress if this game turns into a shootout?

— Can the special teams unit deliver a ‘we’re not the reason we lost the game’ performance?

— If the team gets behind in the game, will see pouting and loafing on the sidelines from their top players?

We will see.

But for now, let us take a look at some of the finer points to watch in this matchup.

Put Pressure on Kirk Cousins – By Any Means Necessary

We have long discussed Cousins’ kryptonite: He is a very poor quarterback when blitzed. To quote from our 2021 article when the Seahawks played the Vikings in Week Three:

In Kirk Cousins’ three-year tenure in Minnesota, you can practically draw a straight line between the amount of pressures the Vikings allow and whether they win the game or not:

Average pressures in a Viking win: 6.9
Average pressures in a Vikings loss: 12.4
But that is just academic, isn’t it? Just about every team in the league can tie winning the game to pressuring the quarterback, right?

What makes Kirk Cousins any different?

This does — when Cousins was blitzed in 2020, his completion percentage dropped from 71.40% to 59.50%.

You read that correctly. He goes from sharpshooter to peashooter when blitzed.

Has he gotten better since then? Has the move to Atlanta remedied that weakness?

Good heavens no. In fact, he has gotten worse.

When Cousins is not blitzed, he completes 69.1% of his passes.

When he is blitzed? That number drops to a horrid 55.8%.

There are several reasons why this is the case.

Cousins has found a lot of success getting rid of the ball as quickly as possible to avoid pressure. He has always had playmakers to work with. If he can get the ball in their hands, they will make things happen. There are some plays that are pure rhythm. Snap, drop, throw. The Seahawks will need the occasional press play from their corners to disrupt his timing.

Another reason is he is not an off-script playmaker nearly to the extent other NFL quarterbacks are. He has one scramble in six games so far. For one yard. It is just not his game to extend plays and torch defenses when things break down.

And the third – and maybe the biggest reason – is he does not have the natural arm talent other top quarterbacks have. If he is throwing it more than 15 yards in the air, he needs his full windup in order to get it there in time. Bullying offensive linemen into his field of vision takes a good chunk of his arm out of the game.

Look at an example of what happens when he has time:

What a catch by Darnell Mooney! 😱#TBvsATL on Prime Video
Also streaming on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/YdkrfoRFXn

— NFL (@NFL) October 4, 2024

Tampa Bay has gotten no rush with their front four and Cousins has time to scan the field and really put some mustard on the pass. He puts it where only Mooney can make a play – with three defenders in close proximity – and nails it.

That is Cousins’ game in a nutshell. Quick throws to playmakers and when his immediate first read is not available, he will pick you apart.

If he has time.

Given this data, would you rather as a rule flood coverage in an effort to assist your depleted backfield? Or sprinkle in some blitzes to get him off his game? I would select the latter.

Notice a typical example of what happens when he is not comfortable:

This @Steelers defense 🔒 Donte Jackson INT!

📺: #PITvsATL on FOX
📱: https://t.co/waVpO909ge pic.twitter.com/M5C6TTuLgH

— NFL (@NFL) September 8, 2024

He cannot step into his throw due to the lineman in his face. He loses velocity and throws an easy interception.

Geno Smith can make that throw flat-footed. Cousins cannot.

Armed with this long-standing catalog of Cousins’ trouble facing pressure, teams should be arming themselves to the teeth and blitzing at every opportunity.

They are not.

Only two starting quarterbacks in the entire NFL are being blitzed less-often than Cousins: Patrick Mahomes and Sam Darnold. Is there a reason those two do not get blitzed much? There is. They eat blitzes alive. Both are far more efficient when being blitzed than in normal rush.

This is one of the NFL’s greatest market inefficiencies in 2024. The Seahawks absolutely must take advantage in order to keep this offense in check. If they can do it with just Mafe, Williams, Hall and Murphy, all the better. But some well-timed blitzes will pour some gas on the fire.

A word on what kind of blitzing is needed: In that 2021 game, the Seahawks blitzed Cousins 11 times but were mostly ineffective. Why? They often tried delayed blitzes, and by the time the rusher got near Cousins, the ball was gone. The defense could not match up tight coverage with the blitz and Cousins often found the open man.

You can see on the Mooney touchdown that Anthony Nelson tried a stunt and was way too late to make a difference.

Mike Macdonald can disguise his blitzes, but they have to fire off at the snap and not be the long-developing Sunday drive types of blitzes. They very rarely work with Cousins.

Take What the Falcons Defense Gives You

Just as the potent Falcon offense is a concern for Seahawks fans, Falcons fans are rightly worried about how the Seahawks will attack their defense with their multiplicity of weapons.

And like the Seahawks’ new staff, they have a first-time Defensive Coordinator who made his bones in the college game (old Husky friend Jimmy Lake). How is it going so far?

Not unlike the Seahawks. Players are trying to grasp their roles, Lake is sticking to his principles and trusting that success will come. A big, big benefit they have going for them is the high-powered offense. The defense has not had to frequently make a big play to turn the game around. Just keep things in front of them and let the offense do its job.

Lake is employing a ‘bend don’t break’ philosophy that many Seahawks fans are familiar with: allow the smaller stuff, protect explosive deep passes and play the odds. In the red zone, use the shortened field to your advantage and keep them out of the end zone. Asking offenses to run 10-15 plays to get a touchdown is playing the odds that teams will eventually sputter and not be able to gain ten yards in three plays.

The result is a very intriguing mix:

— On the ground, they are in the middle of the pack in yards per rush but bottom 10 in rush attempts against and rushing yards per game. What is happening? They one of the NFL’s worst at conceding rushing first downs. So, they cannot get off the field when the defensive line needs to just man up and make a stop. They badly miss Calais Campbell. They can be run on, with patience and persistence.

— In the air, the philosophy is even more evident. They are top ten in passing yards conceded but middle of the pack in passing attempts against. The Falcons pass rush is almost non-existent with only five sacks in six games and a 14% pressure rate. They are conceding a 73.15% completion rate. I had to rub my eyes and do a double-take on that number.

As a result, they have only given up eleven plays of 20 yards or more, the lowest in the NFL. Eight of those are passes and three are rushes. (The flipside is, the Falcons offense is one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of time of possession.)

All of this does not mean the Seahawks must abandon the explosive nature of their offense and just plod down the field with dink and dunk type plays. It does mean that the Seahawks should liberally apply the run to their mix and tenderize this defense and then implement some play-action and let Geno survey the field with all the time he will have.

A 22 for 26 day for 275 yards and 2/3 touchdowns complemented by 30 rushes for 140 yards or so would be just what the doctor ordered.

Patience will be the key. If the Falcons are happy to give the Seahawks crossing patterns and short slants and other in-breaking routes, take them. Give the defense some time to rest and be ready to attack the Falcon offense.

And then when they get into the red zone, overwhelm them with talent.

Like this:

my goodness, DK Metcalf. pic.twitter.com/Rk4DXfEMj9

— Patty Honcho 🤹🏾‍♂️ (@PATTY_HONCHO) September 10, 2023