Yesterday I used the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator to try and create an A+ draft for the Seahawks. The focus was on talent instead of need. I was happy with the outcome but some disagreed with a couple of picks.

I had Seattle taking Will Anderson at #5. I think Anderson would be a really good pick. You’re not getting a Bosa brother or Myles Garrett but I think his impact can be immediate and long lasting both on the field and in the locker room.

However, there is something I do think warrants noting. No quarterback.

The fanbase is split between those for and against selecting a quarterback early. I sense the split isn’t so much based on the actual players available. A case in point, nobody really spends much time discussing the cons of the defensive players touted to go early, yet the QB’s are often decried for their flaws.

Instead I think the thought process is based around a desire to try and win now versus a more long term approach. Improve the defense for 2023 and maybe the team can succeed? Spending the fifth pick on someone who wouldn’t play this year constitutes a waste in the eyes of many.

Others believe the Seahawks will never truly be competitive unless they strike gold at quarterback. Thus, investing in one of the top four available this year is necessary. The re-signing of Geno Smith and Drew Lock means that player can have a year to learn without any pressure to start. The pick might not pay dividends in 2023 but it could set the franchise up for the next decade and longer if managed properly.

Personally, I think the Seahawks should be thinking long term whatever they do. As time has passed it’s become largely forgotten that Geno had a fairly inglorious second half of the season. He certainly wasn’t helped by injuries on offense and a porous defense. However, habits that have hampered his progress in the past, returned after his hot start. The high number of turnover worthy plays for example — and the plays that did actually lead to turnovers.

A friendly schedule aided the Seahawks. It shouldn’t totally undermine the achievement of making the playoffs but it also needs to be acknowledged. Seattle was competitive against the 49ers for a half in the wildcard round before being blown away, brutally, by their division rivals. It was their third comprehensive defeat to the Niners.

I don’t think anyone should be fooled into thinking the Seahawks are close. They aren’t. And they likely won’t be that much closer with a haul of rookies coming onto the team and the addition of one significant, key free agent in Dre’Mont Jones. They can certainly improve and I think we should all set that low bar now. Can they look better and trend upwards, even if results-wise they stall or even regress?

I enjoyed watching Geno in 2022. Even in the playoff game I thought he showed well. He was certainly the least of Seattle’s worries during their uglier defeats, when the defense was a shambles.

However, I think people claiming the Seahawks have definitively found their long term quarterback are dabbling in wishful thinking. Smith has a ways to go yet.

Thus, I’m not convinced by two things. Firstly, Seattle’s ability to craft the kind of elite defense and running game combo that would allow Smith to point guard this franchise to glory. Secondly, Smith’s ability to cover for roster flaws in the way Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert can.

On the first point, I don’t think it’s often noted just how difficult it is to build a great defense. Especially in the modern day offensive-focussed NFL. The only one that really exists currently is San Francisco’s. They ranked first in defensive DVOA last year. The Cowboys, Patriots, Bills and Jets followed. I’m not sure the rest of the top-five compare to the Niners. Perhaps you could make a case for the Eagles, ranked sixth in DVOA, but they were slightly exposed in the Super Bowl.

A quick throat clearing — you’ll notice that none of those teams had a Vic Fangio inspired defensive system in 2022.

San Francisco started building their defense in 2014. That’s when they spent a first rounder on Jimmie Ward. A year later, their first two picks were Arik Armstead and Jaquiski Tartt. In 2016 they used their top pick on DeForest Buckner. The following year they used two more first round picks on defense — two busts in Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster (having famously, according to reports, not even scouted Patrick Mahomes fully because they were so determined not to draft a QB that year while waiting for Kirk Cousins to reach free agency — there might be a lesson there). They selected Fred Warner in 2018 and Nick Bosa and Dre Greenlaw in 2019. Then, having traded Buckner to the Colts, they immediately replaced him with Javon Kinlaw in 2020.

That’s seven first round picks between 2014-2020. If the Seahawks plan to try and mimic the 49ers by building a fantastic defense while plugging-in quarterbacks at will, shouldn’t we acknowledge that this could take the best part of a decade?

People often cite the shortening years left in Carroll’s career. Does he have another five years to take shots in the draft to accumulate the sheer volume of players needed to emulate the Niners?

If they invest so much stock in the defense, are the staff capable of scheming the players to success? Seattle’s defense has started every season poorly for years. They’ve spent season after season trying to fix things on the run. They’ve given away yards galore, through the air and more recently on the ground. They’re running a scheme that a number of teams are trying and equally struggling to execute.

It’s also worth pointing out that even the Niners, who many hope to emulate, still felt they needed to invest three first round picks in a super-athletic, high-upside quarterback.

On the second point, regarding Geno Smith — if the defense doesn’t reach the highest level, is he capable of compensating with his play? In a game against the Niners, or a playoff game, can he be the difference if the defense continues to struggle?

The top quarterbacks step up to the plate and drag their teams to victory in big games when other areas of the team are struggling. Can Geno do that? Is there a danger that the complementary football won’t be good enough to allow a non-elite QB to make you a contender, while the quarterback won’t be good enough to make up for holes on the roster?

The team and player deserve credit for the deal signed to keep Smith in Seattle. It keeps everything on the table for the Seahawks and if Geno succeeds, he’ll be richly rewarded through the incentives attached to the deal.

It’s also kind of being glossed over that many people were talking about franchise tags not so long ago. People were touting mega contracts worth between $30-40m and shouting ‘pay the man’ on Twitter. What actually happened? Smith’s people were able to gauge the market at the combine and immediately after, signed a contract to stay in Seattle that is the definition of ‘team friendly’.

He surely didn’t do that through generosity. He likely signed that deal because the heavily incentivised, non-committal deal was the best one on the table. Or at least, relatively close to the best one on the table. Was any other team even linked with interest in Geno Smith? I can’t recall his name being touted for anyone else. The Buccs maybe? That never seemed to go anywhere though.

Why is that? It appears the league is sceptical that he is in fact the real deal. They see a journeyman career, a fantastic first half of the 2022 season, then a slightly challenging second half.

Here’s what I wrote in an article on January 23rd, discussing Smith’s future:

Hugh Millen raised an interesting point on KJR on Friday. He pointed to a stat provided by PFF listing ‘turnover worthy plays’ by each quarterback. Smith had the second most in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.

Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

That’s staggering.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

I’m not even sure if this accounts for stuff like the pick-six against San Francisco in Seattle which was called back for a fortuitous penalty. That play was blown dead, after all. So it could be even worse than these numbers suggest.

Regardless, Smith had incredible luck when it came to turnovers this season.

Perhaps the Seahawks are mere beneficiaries of league scepticism, allowing them to land the bargain of the year? Or maybe they also retain some scepticism and want the ability to escape his contract in 2024, whether they draft a quarterback later this month or not?

Either way, I don’t think they’d be wrong to be sceptical. I’m sceptical. I hope Smith can be even better, confirming once and for all he’s a late-career success story rather than a one-season wonder. It’s possible though he will just be a flash in the pan. It’s hardly out of the question that in 12 months time the Seahawks will again have no contracted quarterback on the roster, no obvious future at the position, no top-five pick to address the matter properly and it could undermine everything else.

I can’t accept that a quarterback drafted at #5 would be a wasted pick. Especially if Will Anderson is already off the board. The idea that Tyree Wilson is the player to kick things up a notch, with his 75.1 PFF grade at Texas Tech (good enough for 184th among college pass rushers last year), seems ambitious.

Let’s say they draft Anthony Richardson at #5 instead. Now you have Geno Smith, busting a gut to keep his starting job. If he succeeds, you have two options next year. You can stick with Smith for another season. You can see what the trade market is for his services. You could even trade Richardson if needed, if Smith plays well enough to confirm once and for all he’s the bona fide future of Seahawks football.

Sure, you’re not getting an immediate return from your top pick in 2023. That’s where your other nine picks come in handy.

Let’s also remember — just because you take a defender at #5 doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed to have an impact this year.

Travon Walker, the #1 pick a year ago, had 3.5 sacks as a rookie. If he was in this draft, Seahawks fans would be salivating at his athletic potential and calling for him to be picked at #5. A year on from being selected, people are already wondering if the Jaguars made a mistake. His PFF grade in his final year at Georgia (69.9) was worse than Tyree Wilson’s but it’s the same ballpark.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, the fifth pick last year and a player who was being touted for greatness from his first starting season at Oregon, had four sacks as a rookie.

The other top defender taken a year ago, Aidan Hutchinson, had a fantastic rookie season. But it goes to show that for all the talk of a quarterback pick for the Seahawks having no impact — there’s no guarantee a Tyree Wilson type would fly in and suddenly hit the ground running. He might be no more than a rotational cog, needing to work out the pro-game and develop his skills.

Look at Boye Mafe. We shouldn’t forget he cost the Seahawks the #40 pick. Nobody even really talks about him. We’re all sat here talking about drafting an edge rusher to pair with Uchenna Nwosu, just so Mafe and another second rounder, Darrell Taylor, can settle into rotational roles. Would it be that surprising if Tyree Wilson similarly struggles to have an early impact for a team that hasn’t done a great job delivering impact from its high picks at edge rusher?

If they take Wilson at #5 and he experiences growing pains like Walker — and Smith struggles at quarterback this year — what will people be saying in 12 months time? With a bleak quarterback outlook and a top-five defender who failed to sizzle in year one, I suspect there’d be vocal concern.

By taking Richardson you secure against what I think can be called a worst case scenario. If Smith struggles, you have an immediate and exciting alternative who was able to sit and learn for a year. The 2024 season would be hotly anticipated as we all wait to see if Richardson can be as good as his physical talent suggests.

You wouldn’t have totally neglected the defense in the 2023 draft either, thanks to the picks at #20, #37 and #52 providing ample opportunity to improve the unit. You could realistically go into next year with some optimism.

You also create options for the future. As mentioned, you could shop Smith or even Richardson if Geno played brilliantly in 2023. If Smith plays so well that in a year you regret taking a quarterback early, I’m not sure that’s exactly a titanic problem to have. Oh no! You’ve been overly prepared at… the most important position in football. I’d say that’s certainly less of a headache than a Tyree Wilson ending up like Travon Walker, which I don’t think is unrealistic, while you have no future at QB if Smith fails to play at a great level.

I also appreciate there are various strands you could discuss here. If Smith excels and a player like Wilson plays more like Hutchinson than Walker, all will be well with the world.

I fear, though, that the Seahawks are about to embark on a mission to return to contention that is very difficult to execute. Or at least that people are touting such a plan, without offering the balance of considering why it might fail and why other plans also carry merit. The feeling being, they can essentially plug-in quarterbacks at will, create a brilliant defense and running game and everything will click.

If that’s their aim, I’d argue it’s easier to create a fantastic supporting cast surrounding a point guard QB if the quarterback is on a rookie contract. Geno’s contract is generous for 2023 but it’s worth, at its cheapest, $31.2m in 2024. They could easily, if they’re not careful, end up with an expensive quarterback and an inadequate defense to try and play the brand of football they crave. That would just lead to an average team with very little in the way of excitement for the future. Basically, they’d be another Minnesota Vikings. At best.

I’m not confident in Seattle’s ability to build a great defense when they end up getting themselves into situations like spending $40m on the safety position and struggling to fill out their defensive line with what little is left. After years of rough starts, failing to tackle properly, struggling to create consistent pressure, performing badly against the run and being too easy to play against — I need to see major, consistent improvement to believe it.

I don’t think drafting a quarterback at #5 is the only answer. As I keep saying, I think Will Anderson would be a good pick. He’ll only be available, too, if the quarterbacks go #1-4 in the draft — making them unavailable anyway. That’s besides the point though. Anderson’s tenacity, power, alpha mentality and college production hint at a player who can be very good at the next level. I’m not sure he’ll be able to copy DeMarcus Ware’s career but the comparison passes the eye test.

If Anderson is gone though, to me it makes little sense to pivot to Tyree Wilson — a 23-year-old who failed to make a mark at Texas A&M, received middling PFF grades for his performance in the Big-12, hasn’t shown an ability to provide a speed-rush and has a large number of snaps where it feels like he’s going through the motions.

The size and length are very intriguing and he has splash plays on tape. I’m sure coaches will look at his frame and believe they can work with what he has physically and turn him into a more impactful, consistent player. I don’t want to keep going back to this point but that’s exactly what the Jaguars thought about Travon Walker. The difference is, we knew what Walker’s upside was due to his outstanding combine performance. We have no testing numbers for Wilson because he’s still recovering from a foot injury.

Wilson is a classic case of a good highlights video but the game tape is far less exciting. That won’t dictate his success or failure at the next level but it tempers any excitement you might have if/when his name is called.

John Schneider mentioned last week the Seahawks had travelled to give someone a private workout. It was almost certainly Wilson. Schneider admitted previously they were due to attend the Texas Tech pro-day before heading to Gainesville to watch Anthony Richardson. They didn’t go to Texas Tech after it was announced Wilson couldn’t work out. It was also revealed that Wilson has been meeting with most of the top-10 teams in the last week.

It’d be an underwhelming pick. I fear the Seahawks will settle for it, though, if Anderson is off the board. The reports and mocks projecting Wilson at #2 or #3 and having him ranked ahead of Anderson in some cases worries me a bit. I think it’s overthinking things — just as the Jaguars did a year ago selecting Walker over Hutchinson. But it suggests there’s a lot of interest among decision makers and that if Wilson’s there at #5, they’ll trot him out with the usual chatter of friends in the league claiming it’s a great pick.

There’s nothing philosophical about my stance. I’ve consistently said I’m very comfortable going D-line or quarterback. I like Anderson. I was mocking Jalen Carter to Seattle before learning more about the adventure that has been his pre-draft process (not to mention the long list of reported issues at Georgia and a questionable love for the game).

I thought Joey Bosa was comfortably the best player in the 2016 draft. I thought Myles Garrett was the unquestionable no-brainer top pick in 2017. I thought Nick Bosa was clearly the elite player in his class in 2019. If a player of that ilk was available this year, I’d be banging the drum. Even without that level of player, I’m still making the case for Anderson.

I just think this is such a rare opportunity for Seattle that dismissing quarterback would be a mistake by the fans and more importantly the team. I’d happily take on whatever ‘risk’ it’d be to draft someone like Richardson. If he doesn’t become the next Josh Allen, I think it’s worth the shot to see if he can be. That would do more for Seattle’s Super Bowl prospects than anything else over the next 3-5 years. If they take that chance and it doesn’t come off, I wouldn’t criticise the team. How could you? Your favourite team took a chance on developing the rarest of rare athletes and it didn’t pan out. Oh well, what’s next?

As they’ve been quick to point out — when are they going to be in a position like this again? They don’t have another franchise quarterback to trade for a haul of picks. They don’t have a collapsing AFC West team to root against every week, knowing with every loss it increases the draft position of a gifted first round pick.

After this year, the Seahawks will be left to their own devices — with limited cap space, limited trade stock and likely a pick outside of the top-10. It’ll be harder to draft a top quarterback. It kind of feels like now or never, short of one day being prepared to trade a massive sum to move up like the Panthers and Niners recently.

For what it’s worth I think the following probably sums up Seattle’s process this draft season:

1. When the season ended, having watched San Francisco essentially beat the Seahawks at their own game with defense and running game, the intention was to try and close the gap between the two teams by investing a top-five pick on a defensive star. They knew they had to make changes to the defensive line.

2. I think John Schneider and Pete Carroll probably shared that view, with Schneider also intrigued by the quarterback class. When he executed the Russell Wilson trade he was surely thinking ahead about the QB’s coming up in the draft. I seriously doubt they banked on Geno Smith being the future. Smith changed the situation somewhat but Schneider will have spent a lot of time on the quarterbacks and I think the top four, plus potentially Hendon Hooker, are suitably Schneider-esque to imagine he’d have a strong interest in them. Carroll will have his own thoughts on the group and might like some and not others.

3. The situation over the defensive players shifted thanks to Jalen Carter. There were enough concerns before his legal trouble and embarrassing pro-day. The Seahawks, I suspect, already had enough info to potentially take him out of consideration. However, even if they weren’t likely to draft him, someone else might before they pick at #5. I think that’s almost certainly not going to happen now, making it harder for Anderson to fall through the cracks unless a team trades into the #3 spot.

4. I think Anthony Richardson has caught Seattle’s attention. I think he’s done that with a few teams, which is why he has official-30 visits booked in with the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens. Carroll seems to have taken a shine to him. The player himself spoke glowingly about his meeting with the Seahawks at the combine. We’ve since had reports of Schneider having extensive conversations with Richardson’s agent, while Carroll had an audience with Billy Napier. The personality, charisma, unlimited physical talent and the massive upside — I think — is intriguing Seattle more than they possibly expected. Like I say, I don’t think they’re the only team experiencing this.

5. For a while I’ve thought this was going to come down to ‘who lasts to #5?’. Will it be Anderson or Richardson? I’ve seen people talking recently about Tyree Wilson, noting, fairly, that bigger players of that size (such as Aldon Smith) have played in a 3-4 at OLB. I must admit, it made me pause. They might just talk themselves into this. Then when I watch the tape, I’m reminded of my concerns. If they draft him, obviously I hope he succeeds at an extreme level. I do fear, though, that they might be so defensively focused that they take Wilson — enamoured by his size — and simply can’t elevate him to the level they hope. After all, Aldon Smith had Vic Fangio coaching him. The Seahawks might be influenced by Fangio’s scheme but they’ve shown minimal ability to execute it so far. Maybe it’s recency bias on my behalf but I have a horrible thought of Wilson being the 2023 version of Mafe — an older rookie losing reps to someone else, with Carroll fending off weekly questions about why he isn’t more involved.

I suppose this is all just a long-winded way to say I think it’s still important for the Seahawks to be open-minded about drafting a quarterback. Plus, I’m sceptical about Wilson but I’m admitting I should include him in any discussion about the #5 pick moving forward.

After all, as we’ve already said a numerous times in the last few weeks, they attended the Ohio State, Alabama, Kentucky and Florida pro-days. They intended to attend the Texas Tech pro-day too, during that little road-trip.

The players involved in those pro-days:

C.J. Stroud
Bryce Young
Will Anderson
Will Levis
Anthony Richardson
Tyree Wilson

Seattle’s pick is going to come from that group, I’m very confident about that. I think the road trip was deliberate. Rather than any convoluted smokescreen, I suspect the Seahawks were simply doing manageable homework on a very important pick and getting every scrap of information they can. Unlike when you’re picking in the 20’s, you can narrow your focus to five pro-days because only four players will leave the board before you pick. You can’t attend 35 pro-days to cover all the possibilities with the 25th pick.

With the expectation the first two picks are Stroud and Young, and Levis being drafted by the Colts, Anderson or Richardson is realistic and is my preference for the Seahawks. Wilson could also be an option but an underwhelming one, at least for me.

Tomorrow I’m going to attempt to create another A+ draft — with a quarterback taken at #5.

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I went on to the Pro Football Network mock draft simulator (still the best on the internet — and free, unlike others) this weekend with the intention of trying to execute an A+ draft for the Seahawks.

The rules were simple. Look for value but be realistic. If the simulator has a player graded unrealistically, I wasn’t going to select them.

One such example is Alabama’s Byron Young. I think he’s a top-65 player. He’s never going to be a game-wrecker but you’ll get at least four years of cost-effective, valuable defensive line play from him — plus leadership, physicality and a ton of snaps. I think he’s a superior prospect to Phidarian Mathis, the 47th pick last year.

Even if I rate Young higher than the consensus, the simulator has him as the 241st best player in the draft. That means he’s always available in rounds six or seven. I think he’ll be a second or third round pick. For once I didn’t mock him to Seattle (even though he’s ideally suited to their scheme) and thought it’d be unrealistic to take him in the later rounds.

So here’s what I did come up with for the Seahawks. I would give this an A+ grade. What do you think? Let me know in the comments…

#5 — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
The four quarterbacks were gone and it left Anderson available for the fifth pick. I think the Seahawks, or at least John Schneider, are more intrigued with this quarterback class than some people think. Yet I also think they’ll be delighted if Anderson is available at #5. He perfectly fits the character preference they’re looking for. He’s an A+ alpha and the ultimate pro. His effort and intensity, week-to-week, is flawless. When I spoke to a source in the league recently, he gushed over Anderson’s ability to communicate with team mates and say the right things to the media. I was told he has a terrific family background and will have received virtually perfect character grades. The same source said Anderson wasn’t ‘special’ but was a ‘damn good football player’. He’s a perfect scheme fit for Seattle and will provide immediate impact against the run, he’ll disrupt and challenge opponents in the passing game and he’d give the Seahawks a vocal, heart-and-soul leader for the long term on defense.

#20 — trade down
It feels almost inevitable that Seattle will drop down a few spots. It could be that they drop into the mid-20’s and select the center John Michael Schmitz — who is another ideal fit in terms of character and scheme. Usually on the simulator I get a nice offer from a team in the 20’s that includes a third round pick. Not in this instance. Dallas offered a fourth round pick (#129) to drop to #26. I took it. Michael Mayer and Bijan Robinson were both gone, which is unusual for the simulator, so I didn’t stick and pick. I could’ve taken Josh Downs or Schmitz but opted to get another pick to move down — even if the value wasn’t earth-shattering.

#26 — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
I wasn’t planning on drafting a safety this early. I think the Seahawks are almost certain to take one at some stage. The parting with Ryan Neal feels like a situation where they can save a chunk of money and find a cheaper replacement on a four-year deal. However, when I got to this pick I just fancied Branch. His testing numbers were surprisingly average. Yet on tape, he played like a Rolls Royce. He was impactful and instinctive. Most importantly, he can play the role of deathbacker/nickel DB perfectly. If the Seahawks plan to run a lot of three-safety looks as we’re told, Branch’s versatility will be ideal. It’s not easy to play the ‘star’ position in Nick Saban’s defense (essentially slot corner) but he did it better than most, flashing excellent football IQ and read/react. I think he can play free safety too. Furthermore, he’s also a willing hitter who plays with grit and intensity. Branch is another high-character player and although it’s a bit of a luxury to take him here — isn’t this what the Seahawks are supposed to be trying to do? Draft talent, rather than just reach for need? I was tempted to take Adetomiwa Adebawore to pair with Anderson, to produce a thoroughly dynamic defensive front. Schmitz and Downs were also considered.

#37 — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
This was another position I wasn’t planning to address here. Josh Downs left the board at #30 and John Michael Schmitz followed at #32. I could’ve drafted Mazi Smith to play nose tackle. In the end, Gibbs stood out in terms of pure talent. I don’t think people truly realise how good he was in 2022. There were multiple games last season where Alabama toiled and turned to Gibbs to get them out of a hole. He delivered every time. He’s a 4.36 runner at 200lbs and you see it on tape. He just accelerates away from everyone. He’s a dynamic home-run hitter and would be the ideal ‘lightning’ to Ken Walker’s ‘thunder’. Also, he can play two different roles. Gibbs is such a brilliant pass-catcher who runs excellent routes. It wouldn’t be out of the question to move him around formations, lining him up in the slot and looking for mismatch opportunities. Finally, he has experience returning kicks and could be useful on special teams immediately. Like Walker last year, he’s a first round talent who might suffer due to positional value.

#52 — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Regulars will know I’m a big fan of Mingo and see him as the second best receiver in the draft. He has a good frame (6-2, 220lbs) with enormous 10.5 inch hands — but runs in the 4.4’s and is a perfect ‘big slot’. The Seahawks experimented with a bigger slot receiver last year with Laquon Treadwell. Mingo could be an ideal WR3 for the team after the failed Dee Eskridge experiment. What does he do well? His routes are extremely precise and he’s nearly always where he needs to be on time. Mingo has soft hands and is adept competing for the ball in the air or tracking it over his shoulder. He has enough speed to get downfield and make the big explosive plays, plus the size to box-out and win with physicality. He can also make the spectacular happen — such as a stunning one-handed grab downfield last season or the best ‘Moss’ we saw in 2022. As a blocker, he has no peer in this receiver class. If you want your receivers to block — this is your guy. He loves to get after it. I think he’s a top-50 player who could go a lot earlier than people think and in this range, he’d be a home-run pick.

#83 — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
I nearly didn’t make this pick because it perhaps strains the boundaries of realism. There’s a chance Wypler goes in the late second or the early third. Because Arizona traded up for JMS at the end of the first round, I let this pass. They are the team who might take Wypler off the board at the top of round three. If he does last into this range and Seattle still needs a center, it’s a perfect fit. Wypler has the traits for the blocking scheme. He’s athletic and agile — running a brilliant 4.53 short shuttle. He has a wrestling background which they like. He had a tremendous game against Georgia in the college football playoffs. He said at the combine he’d already started studying the Rams blocking scheme because it fit him so perfectly — so he’s already well versed in Seattle’s system. This pick would give the Seahawks a chance to have a settled center position for the first time in years.

#123 — Jaquelin Roy (NT, LSU)
We’re five picks in and you’re probably asking — where are the defensive linemen? This is part of the problem. It’s not a deep, rich class. If you go in other directions early, you’ll miss out on the names everyone’s talking about. The Seahawks will have to determine whether they want to draft for talent or need early on. Personally, I hope they don’t force things. They’ve admitted that has been an issue in the past. It’s also worth noting that, Jarran Reed aside, they’ve typically waited until the middle round to add at defensive tackle. Only last week John Schneider was playing down the nose tackle position. LSU’s Roy would be a good option here. He’s been durable. He plays a ton of snaps. I think his tape is inconsistent and average but we’re talking about a fourth round nose tackle. If you can develop his technique while he plays in year one, he might be able to anchor the line on early downs.

#129 — Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
This is the pick acquired from Dallas. I really like McFadden and was pleased to see he’s taking an official-30 visit to Seattle. He played left tackle for Clemson but his natural home is kicking inside to guard. He’s 6-2 and 303lbs with 34-inch arms. His frame and length are ideally set-up to win leverage battles. He’s athletic too, running a 4.99 at the combine. The LA Rams have regularly converted college tackles to guard for their blocking scheme. The Seahawks might start doing something similar. Either way, with both current starting guards out of contract in 2024, investing in someone who can possibly step-in next year is important.

#151 — Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
I only started watching Trice just before my last horizontal board was published. I’m glad I took the time to watch him. He’s an excellent cornerback prospect with fantastic size (6-3, 206lbs, 32.5 inch arms) and he runs well (4.47 forty). He’s quite scheme specific but screams ‘Seahawks’. He wants to be physical and scrappy in coverage. On any dump-offs and screens he does a great job getting off blocks to hammer ball carriers. He reads plays better than most other cornerbacks in this class — often making the right decision to gamble to undercut a route or passing off the correct receiver. There’s so much potential here and if he’s available in this range, he could compete very quickly to play outside across from Tariq Woolen.

#154 — Tyler Lacy (DE, Oklahoma State)
Nobody is going to watch Lacy and think he’s going to come into the league and wreak havoc. He is what he is — a very solid, sturdy, physical and competitive 3-4 defensive end. He’s 6-4 and 280lbs with 33-inch arms and massive 11-inch hands. On tape there are minimal splash plays or big pass-rushing moves. What he does do very well is make first contact, read the defense, disengage and then fill a gap. He’s a battle-tested warrior who could work into the rotation immediately and provide some very solid, sturdy reps up front. If the Seahawks come out of the draft with Jaquelin Roy and Tyler Lacy, they might have missed out on the star power for the defensive front but they’d have a couple of guys who are going to bring it and take on a decent chunk of snaps. They’d still need to go out and get one more veteran — potentially Shelby Harris could return.

#198 Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)
If you missed my interview with Rodriguez, check it out here. The Seahawks need to add a couple of backs to their stable. Rodriguez is a two-time team captain at Kentucky and says he’s very prepared to take on special teams duties when he arrives in the league. He has the size and physicality to take on the workload if one of the top two backs goes down. He can be a fierce tone-setter and he’s a better pass-catcher than most people realise. He’s modelled his game on Marshawn Lynch and you see that with his running style. I’m sceptical he’ll be available in this range but given it can’t be ruled out, I took him.

#237 Ventrell Miller (LB, Florida)
It was a pleasure to watch Miller at times in 2022. He’s a limited athlete. He isn’t going to fly around the field and make rangy modern-day linebacker plays. Yet when Florida needed someone to give the team an inspirational speech on the sideline, level someone to get things going or play through a series of serious injuries to gut it out and try and get his team a win, Miller was always there. If he lasts to the seventh round, he’d be a fantastic pick for special teams duties and to provide a bit of depth at linebacker.

The class in full

Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
Jaquelin Roy (NT, LSU)
Jordan McFadden (G, Clemson)
Corey Trice (CB, Purdue)
Tyler Lacy (DE, Oklahoma State)
Chris Rodriguez (RB, Kentucky)
Ventrell Miller (LB, Florida)

Final thoughts

There are obviously some areas not addressed here. Is there enough for the defensive line to function properly? That’s debatable and highlights the bind the Seahawks have got themselves in, with no depth up front and no money to do anything about it. I’m not sure they can force this though and they have to avoid a need-focused draft. They have to find a way to free-up cash to complete their roster.

Did I need to take a safety at #26? No — but you can easily make an argument that Branch is worthy of that selection for a scheme that is placing a lot of value at safety. He’s a good player. I suspect they might be the team that goes for John Michael Schmitz in the 20’s, making this all a moot point. But in terms of defensive talent left on the board at #26, you could make a case for Branch.

No quarterback is added. Personally I would be disappointed to come out of the Russell Wilson trade having not added a QBOTF candidate. It seems to be mostly forgotten that there were two sides to Geno Smith’s 2022 season — a sensational first half, followed by a very average at best second half. His contract is excellently structured to provide team flexibility and player incentive but if he doesn’t deliver, you could have a major problem at the position as early as next year.

It’d be preferable to add a linebacker who can potentially start in 2024. This isn’t a good linebacker class, though.

On the plus side — I think this is a talent-rich class. You get two impact first-round defenders who could be the future of the unit in terms of performance, attitude and leadership. You add even more playmaking quality to the offense — plus a long-term option at center. The day three picks can all contribute quickly, even if it’s just competing for a job or special teams.

I think they’d be in a very strong position to take another step forward with a class like this. You’re never going to get everything done in a perfect, satisfactory fashion. I think a draft like this, however, would make you more talented and more competitive and I’d be giving it an A+ grade.

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There are certain reporters who make you sit up and take notice. Especially when they declare something. Chris Mortensen is one of those reporters. He’s not a talking head, offering an opinion. For him to come out and flat out state what he did in the video below is worth paying attention to:

Chris Mortensen: Bryce Young is the pick. They (Panthers) all love Bryce Young.

🎥: @espn pic.twitter.com/Yb8jwRXpcb

— Panthers On Tap (@PanthersOnTap) April 5, 2023

His ESPN colleague Adam Schefter did something similar when the Panthers moved up to the #1 pick. Schefter said Bryce Young was the player they traded up to get.

He qualified his statement by saying Young could end up being Carolina’s version of Mac Jones. The 49ers traded up to #3 in 2021 with the intention of selecting Jones — an ideal fit for Kyle Shanahan’s scheme. Between executing the trade and making the pick, they’d talked themselves into taking Trey Lance instead.

It’s possible, therefore, the Panthers experience a similar shift in opinion. You can imagine why, given the way C.J. Stroud has conducted his pre-draft process. That game against Georgia will get a fair few viewings over the next three weeks.

I got the sense during my interview with Scot McCloughan that the unnamed quarterback he spoke about in the most glowing terms was Young. The size and durability concerns are legit and will be discussed by every team thinking of drafting a quarterback early. The natural talent, football intelligence, accuracy, leadership and ability to carry a team are most definitely not in question.

It simply comes down to the size and frame, at a time when players like Tua Tagovailoa are at a career crossroads due to the number of concussions and other injuries he’s experienced. Meanwhile, there are three other hulking, prototype athletes in the same class. There’s no right or wrong answer here because it’s impossible to predict how Young will translate. I’d say any opinion is justified, for or against.

For the purpose of this article, let’s say it is Young who goes first overall.

Lance Zierlein’s latest mock draft was an interesting read. Lance is based in Houston and whether it’s through sources or simply understanding the Texans mindset, he’s had a lot of success projecting their moves. For example, he got both of their first round picks correct in his final mock draft a year ago.

He had the Texans taking a defensive lineman at #2 in his new mock.

Not Will Anderson.

Tyree Wilson.

It’s worth noting at this point that Lance rates Wilson very highly and the quarterbacks, not so much. Wilson is his #5 overall graded prospect. Stroud is only ranked ninth. Anthony Richardson and Will Levis aren’t even in the top-20. It’s possible that played a part in this projection.

I spoke to someone in the league recently who said Anderson would be “hands down the top defender taken”. That’s from the same source who told me last year’s quarterbacks were a bunch of third rounders and accurately confirmed exactly where the three top tackles would be drafted in the top-10 (he also had Lewis Cine as a fourth rounder, for the purpose of transparency).

The same source told me it was a ‘certainty’ four quarterbacks would go in the top-10 this year and it was very possible four go in the top-five.

Chris Mortensen, in the same broadcast where he claimed Bryce Young would be the #1 overall pick, also declared Will Levis wouldn’t get out of the top-five, indicating the likelihood of four very early picks at quarterback.

Even so, I want to consider chaos today. On March 9th I published a mock draft that had the Texans taking Anderson at #2, noting:

Everyone assumes they’ll go quarterback. DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco due to the D-line. GM Nick Caserio is from the Patriots way of doing things and they’ve always been happy to draft for scheme fit later. Anderson’s A+ character and talent could tempt the Texans to launch their new era with a different approach here.

Granted, I made that prediction with the thought that the Texans could try and sign Jimmy Garoppolo. They reportedly were in discussions with Garoppolo but he ultimately chose ‘Patriots West’ instead of ‘Patriots Texas’.

That they’ve only signed Case Keenum instead suggests to me the Texans are all-in on a quarterback at #2. They’ve signed a lot of veteran offensive players too — plus re-signed their left tackle to a massive extension. It feels like they’re setting the table for a rookie.

Even so, that rookie doesn’t have to be taken at #2. Zierlein had the Texans trading up from #12 to #7 to select Will Levis. If Levis is a top-five lock, as Mortensen claims, I’m not sure this tactic is going to work for Houston. If they want a quarterback they’re going to need to either trade back into the top-five, take Hendon Hooker at #12 or hope nobody else takes Hooker and then move back into the late first from the #34 pick.

It all seems very convoluted just to avoid taking Stroud at #2. Especially when defensive linemen will be readily available at #12 and #34.

I’ve wondered whether the Shanahan scheme, which is used to dealing with scheme fits at QB, might go cheap at the position. They could persevere with Davis Mills but that seems a long-shot for the long-suffering Texans fans eager for some excitement. Neither is there anyone worth waiting to take later on. I like Dorian Thompson-Robinson but he’s not a Shanahan type. The source I mentioned earlier described this QB class as the top-four, Hendon Hooker, then a bunch of six and seven rounders (for what it’s worth). The league really felt the blow of virtually an entire middle-tier of quarterbacks choosing not to declare.

Mac Jones trade? It would make sense if New England had a viable replacement lined up. I’m not sure Bailey Zappe qualifies. Again, is it really worth trying to sell that to Texans fans just to avoid taking Stroud?

Let’s run with it though. Carolina takes Young. Houston only has eyes for Young and pivots to Anderson rather than Stroud or Wilson at #2.

What then?

Arizona would be even more desperate to trade down. They’d be in a rotten position having to choose between a bad bargaining position and the aesthetics of a mediocre offer to trade out of #3, or taking a player (Wilson or a cornerback) who could be available later on.

This is why I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out the Seahawks having interest in trading up to #3. In that scenario, with Stroud available, why wouldn’t you try and jump the Colts? You have more stock than they do. The Cardinals would still pick in the top-five. In that situation, it would make most sense for Arizona to either move down to #4 or #5 or just say, to put it violently, ‘f-it let’s trade down into the mid-teens and get what we can’. Either way, they wouldn’t be in a great negotiating position with Anderson off the board.

If Stroud lasts to #3 — someone will make a move. Even with Anderson leaving the board, the chances of four of the top-five being quarterbacks remains likely, unless the Cardinals only drop to #4 or #5.

My prediction isn’t changing though. I still think it’ll be Stroud and Young in the top-two, whoever is taken first. Then it’ll come down to whether someone makes the move up to #3 or whether the Cardinals stick and pick Anderson.

The fact that Anthony Richardson is meeting with the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens is indicative of the intrigue in him. It won’t be a surprise if any of those teams ultimately move up.

The Colts, meanwhile, appear to be preparing to draft Will Levis. I think they’ve settled on that for a while, which is why they didn’t make a bigger push to get up to the #1 pick.

Ultimately I think for the Seahawks it comes down to this. Did someone move up for Richardson, pushing Anderson to Seattle at #5? If not, do they just pivot to Richardson?

As I wrote a couple of days ago, I think it’ll be a huge shock if the Seahawks were to take Jalen Carter — given the pattern of poor decisions he’s made that have led to legal issues, the reported concerns about his football character (including poor practise habits, lack of effort, difficulty to coach — basically doing what he wanted) and the lack of seriousness with which he’s taken his college career (April 2022 — ‘conditioning is my top priority this year’, December 2022 — admits he was embarrassed by his performance against Ohio State where he was struggling to remain on his feet he was so gassed, then the pro-day shambles).

I’ll just go back to what I said on Wednesday. Reportedly they took Kayvon Thibodeaux out of consideration in round one last year. It was reported by multiple people that teams were concerned by how often he talked about his ‘brand’ and money-making potential in the NFL. No other character issues were reported and like Carter, he was a fantastic talent at a key position of need. If that was enough for the Seahawks to not consider Thibodeaux in round one, it’s impossible for me to imagine they’ll look at the extensive baggage surrounding Carter and think ‘that’s our guy’.

We’ll see what happens but I think Carter will be taken at #9 by Chicago or #10 by Philadelphia, with the Eagles the most likely suitor. Detroit could be a wildcard but looking at the players they’ve taken since the current regime took over — they seem to want glass-eating all-football types.

I think, like the Raiders, Falcons, Titans and Ravens, the Seahawks have had their heads turned by Richardson. I sense they’re intrigued. They’re open to the possibility. Their ideal pick — and I’ve thought this for a while — is probably Will Anderson. I do think, however, that John Schneider will be enamoured by this QB class. That’s why I’ve been projecting Anderson or Richardson at #5 — whoever lasts.

If the Texans pull off a stunner and take Anderson at #2 — and if Stroud lasts to #3 — I think the Seahawks should be on red alert to pounce.

Ian Rapoport mentioned this week that the Texans’ priority in this draft is to add difference making talent. I listened to that and thought, that should be Seattle’s priority too. I keep seeing people touting trading down, getting even more picks, having more picks next year. Eventually you need to acquire some stars — and as the Seahawks know, the top players don’t tend to last into the 20’s.

Having a whole bunch of picks is great. It’s nice to add talent at a variety of spots, look at the roster and feel various holes are filled.

That’s not often what it’s about though, is it? Ultimately when it gets down to the wire, it’s who is the healthiest team and who has the players capable of winning you a big game when it matters most.

The Chiefs roster has a few holes. Their defense lacks any stars. Yet they have Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, an offensive line and a great offensive minded Head Coach. They’ve been to three Super Bowls. They were aggressive to get Mahomes, seeing through his well discussed issues in college and believing he had star potential.

The Bills would be thoroughly average without Josh Allen. They had to be aggressive to trade up and get him.

San Francisco spent a decade building their defense and even then, without Nick Bosa it’d be half as dangerous. Their offense clicks because they have a genius working the controls. This isn’t easy to copy.

The Eagles needed their GM to go on an unprecedented run of success, highlighted by his incredibly aggressive and highly productive trading strategy.

I’m not sure the Seahawks can build a Championship roster ticking off needs by having the most picks possible. They have good players and will likely acquire more this year. How many elite players do they have? Who on Seattle’s roster is a top-five at their position currently?

Clearly the Seahawks have holes to fill and they’ll do that with 10 picks. They also need to find at least a couple of players who end up being elite, top-level, feared players who drive you forward.

You aren’t getting that trading down from #5 and taking Peter Skoronski. You aren’t getting that from taking Tyree Wilson at #5 simply because he’s big, long and plays on the defensive line.

If you get a sniff at Stroud, go for a full nostril instead. Richardson has the potential to be special. I don’t think Anderson is necessarily a ‘special’ talent but I think he can be very, very good and improve the team in a multitude of ways with his attitude and leadership.

Carter would be on this list too but for me, you simply cannot trust him to deliver on his potential. He is telling you with his actions that he can’t be trusted. The only thing worse than squandering this rare top-five pick on an average player would be blowing it on someone who is giving off all the signs he’s not in any way, shape or form, taking this process and his career seriously.

Some risk is required here to elevate this team to the next level. Taking the right risk is key. Moving up to #3 if C.J. Stroud is available? Worth it. Hoping Will Anderson can elevate your defense to another level? Worth it. Taking a shot on developing Anthony Richardson, knowing what his physical talent is? Worth it. Thinking Jalen Carter is going to completely transform himself with a guaranteed $30m in the bank, playing on the other side of the country, with months between the draft and his first training camp? That’s one to sit out.

If I’m right and it’s likely that one of Anderson or Richardson will be there at #5 — it’s a great opportunity for this team. They will have four more picks in the first three rounds, with a chance to acquire more, to get the best of both worlds — a top talent in the class plus filling out the roster.

This isn’t just about 2023. It isn’t just about five years down the line.

It’s about working towards a Championship team. Sometimes you have to consider the long and short term. That’s what the Chiefs did with Mahomes and the Bills with Allen. It took years for the 49ers to grow into what they are. The Eagles didn’t just draft Jalen Hurts in round two and they were off. That was a process that took time.

The reason Seattle might draft a QB is no different, really, than the reason why they might draft a tight end. It’s about thinking about today and tomorrow.

That’s the essence of the draft.

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Absolutely loved this interview. Chris was great to chat to. We discussed his admiration for Marshawn Lynch, his mentality/running style, his team mate at Kentucky Will Levis and much more. Check it out…

As we edge closer to the draft, we’re starting to see a consensus among prognosticators. Todd McShay, Lance Zierlein, Daniel Jeremiah, Mike Renner and others have the Seahawks picking Jalen Carter at #5.

Earlier today I watched this video featuring Mike Florio and Chris Simms, discussing Seattle’s options. They concluded Carter would be the pick in Seattle and that a quarterback wouldn’t be.

It’s always best to avoid guaranteeing things will or won’t happen. You can never be 100% sure. Usually it’s a surefire way to end up with egg on your face, writing an article explaining why you got things so emphatically wrong. I’m always happy to admit when I’ve called something poorly, with my Geno Smith video last year a good example of that.

That said, I’m not going to need to do a Jalen Carter video. I’m comfortable saying he won’t be Seattle’s pick at #5. Book it. Put it in ink.

I’m not 100% sure. I am 99.5% sure, though.

Regulars will be bored of me talking about this. Trust me, I’m bored too. I’m going to go over a lot of old ground again here. Yet with the majority of high-profile mocks pairing Seattle with Carter recently, I think it’s worth returning to this subject.

I’ll start by saying I appreciate why this projection keeps being made. Pete Carroll and John Schneider have developed reputations as risk takers. They’ve taken big swings. They’ve made controversial moves, most notably drafting Frank Clark.

I understand why someone who doesn’t follow the Seahawks religiously would conclude that Carter to Seattle makes sense. Good ol’ Pete will be prepared to take a shot. He’ll coach him up and get him going. No problemo.

This isn’t reflective of where the Seahawks are at, though. In the case of Carter, I also doubt they’ll want to take on this particular challenge.

We’ve heard a few times now that the Seahawks last year renewed their commitment to character when it comes to drafting. The words ‘without compromise’ have been used to describe their approach to character.

Here’s what Schneider said about their celebrated 2022 class back in November:

“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”

Here’s Pete Carroll on how character played a big part in the players they selected:

“It was really important to us. Their character and their confidence in themselves, the ways they came across with that. We were picking them for those spots hoping it would work out and it did. Perfect group of guys in the makeup and the mentality that they brought to us.

We’re always trying to get more accurate in what we’re doing and we really find that the character and makeup part of it was crucial and we continue to look at that.”

Schneider has talked openly about making mistakes in the past. In fairness, that isn’t just about character. He’s discussed drafting players who weren’t up to the challenge of competing against the superstars in the locker room. Players were in awe of Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, not motivated to take their jobs.

It’s also inevitable that when any reference is made to learning from mistakes, Malik McDowell immediately springs to mind.

The warning signs were there with McDowell — a top-10 talent who sank deep into round two amid a flurry of reports about his character, attitude, personality, dedication to his craft and college consistency.

When Schneider called McDowell to tell him he was being selected, he did so with a warning: “Don’t forget our conversation, OK?”

The Seahawks knew they were selecting a rare physical talent with the tools to be great. They also knew they were taking a gamble. A big gamble. In the second round, three years removed from a Super Bowl run, they felt that chance was worth taking.

McDowell never played a down for the Seahawks.

When I spoke to Scot McCloughan recently, I asked him about the decision making process when weighing up risky picks like McDowell. His answer was telling and important:

“I won’t say any names but there’s a player this year who is highly, highly, highly talented at a position that’s hard to find. I’ve been there before and I’ve taken that player. I learned early, I didn’t listen to it because the talent outweighed the character but my first boss told me if you make one exception, you’ll end up with a team of exceptions. I never understood what that meant until I got older.”

“Everybody makes mistakes. I’ve made many of them. It’s the ones who keep making the same mistake over and over that really worry you.”

I don’t know who the player is he referred to in this quote but the point about a pattern of mistakes is important. There was a pattern with McDowell. There’s a pattern with Carter. From the reported maturity concerns, the clear and obvious conditioning issues and now the legal trouble.

McDowell and Carter are different players with different issues. Yet for all the talk of learning lessons, it wouldn’t be much of a learned lesson to go down this road — with a much more valuable, expensive and high-profile pick.

Seattle’s experience with McDowell, you’d think, should be enough to sit out this next game of roulette. Everyone deserves a mulligan. The Seahawks have had theirs.

Further to that, Dave Wyman (who hosts a weekly show with Schneider) reported a few weeks ago that the Seahawks were unwilling to draft Kayvon Thibodeaux in round one last year. Thibodeaux’s character issue consisted of a keenness to talk, non-stop, about his ‘brand’ and how much money he intended to make. If that was enough to remove him from Seattle’s first round board, it’s hard to imagine Carter is going to be considered.

Really, that should be enough right? Assuming that information on Thibodeaux is true, are we really going to imagine a situation where Thibodeaux’s entrepreneurial ambitions were too problematic but Carter’s reported maturity, conditioning and legal issues are not?

Let’s take the conditioning angle in isolation. We identified a couple of months ago that Carter, when quizzed last April about his priorities for the season, said his #1 aim was to improve his conditioning. He reiterated that twice during the press conference and it was acknowledged by his Head Coach Kirby Smart as necessary.

We could see clearly on tape that these words were not followed up with actions. Carter admitted he was ’embarrassed’ (his words) by his performance against Ohio State, where he looked exhausted and was visibly struggling to get through the game.

Whatever aim he had to improve his conditioning, it seems little was done about it.

Provided Carter was ready for gameday, it wasn’t really viewed as a problem at Georgia. We’re talking about a player so talented that he can live off natural ability.

We saw, however, what happened when the pace quickened and the level upped against the Buckeyes. Suddenly, talent alone wasn’t enough. He’s going to need to take things seriously. When people talk about maturity and Todd McShay talks about whether you’d want him in your locker room, this is part of the issue.

McShay added to what he’s reporting on today’s ‘First Draft podcast’:

“There’s a lot of football character stuff. Practise habits, not giving great effort in practise, talking back to coaches, coaches not being able to coach him hard. There’s a lot of that stuff and it’s all based on seven different sources that I have so I’m not making anything up… You as an organisation have got to figure out can we deal with this?”

The perception is Carroll and Schneider would love to to get such a rare talent in the building and try to work him into a position where he can succeed. Let’s go back to Schneider’s review of the 2022 class:

“They’re great workers and they act like they are pros, all of them. I think Tyler Lockett said it best. None of them really talk. They just listen, work their asses off and keep working at their profession.”

If that was the aim for the draft a year ago — and it led to a class broadly considered an A+ group — it flies in the face of realism that they would follow it up by using a top-five pick on someone like Carter. You’ll need to mould him into a pro and change his entire approach to preparation, conditioning and what it takes to succeed at the highest level.

This is why I think Will Anderson will be so highly regarded by the Seahawks. He is a fantastic scheme fit for the 3-4, he has A+ grades in terms of character, family background, the way he speaks to team mates and the media and he’s an alpha who brings 100% energy and physicality to every series.

That’s a Seahawk. If he lasts to #5, he’ll probably literally be a Seahawk.

You cannot make these arguments for Carter. Bring it every series? Is he even going to bring himself to every lifting session? I’m not being flippant, I’m being serious.

Carter isn’t going to be the pick. The Seahawks might actually appreciate that the mainstream media are focusing on that angle as much as they are.

Someone will take him early. There’s been a lot of fuss around Drew Rosenhaus’ announcement that he won’t meet with any teams not picking in the top-10. Frankly, I think it’s a reasonable tactic from the agent. Better to get in front of the story if most of the league has little interest in meeting (and therefore drafting) his client. Now it sounds like bravado rather than damage limitation.

The team that selects Carter will have a GM in a secure position. That GM will have money in the bank whereby he can afford to risk getting a big decision wrong if the pick busts.

I’m going to mock him to the Eagles at #10 in every projection unless new information emerges. Howie Roseman is a hero to Eagles fans after building two Super Bowl teams in recent years. He already has a Super Bowl roster on his hands, so it’s a low-risk gamble for him. This is an extreme bonus pick for the Eagles. A shot to nothing, really.

Could the Bears take him? Maybe — but they also have a new GM and are rebuilding. I think the Lions are a wildcard. The Eagles will ultimately be my prediction, though.

Character is another reason why I think the Seahawks will also be very intrigued by the quarterbacks. I don’t buy the rhetoric expressed by Florio and Simms that they’ll be worried about undermining Geno Smith. The Geno contract was structured for a reason. It’s a beautifully crafted deal full of incentive without any long-term commitment. With the way Smith’s 2022 season ended, they’re right to keep their options open on a player who was a journeyman until last year.

All four of the top quarterbacks have the competitive attitude and high character that Carroll and Schneider are looking for. Three of the quarterbacks are physical marvels with outstanding upside. The other is being described in the highest terms for his character and talent.

Questions about the future at QB throughout the season? They won’t worry about that. This is the team that spent 14 months living with a Wilson trade saga in the media. They wrote-off millions on a Matt Flynn contract. They’ve handled noise.

I think too much of this draft season has been filled discussing whether the Seahawks are prepared to draft a quarterback. I think it’s fairly evident they are. Now it’s just a case of whether they actually will.

I don’t think the last few months have been one big lying session.

I don’t think they’ve been fibbing about the importance of character in their draft decision making. The 2022 draft is evidence enough of them putting their money where their mouth is, plus the report on their lack of interest in Thibodeaux.

I don’t think they’ve been pulling a fast one, telling everyone they’re monitoring the quarterbacks closely and might take one when they have no intention of doing so. If they were willing to trade Russell Wilson to the Browns in 2018 simply in order to replace him with Josh Allen, or draft Patrick Mahomes in 2017 when they already had prime-Wilson, there’s no reason why they wouldn’t use a rare top-five pick on a quarterback in this draft if Schneider really likes one or more of the group.

When they say picking fifth overall is a rare opportunity they’re excited about — I think they mean it. They’re hopefully never going to be in this position again.

I don’t think they’re as eager to trade down as some believe. Trade down for what? To get even more than the haul of 10 picks they already have? Just to select a guard, running back, tight end or spend a high pick on a cornerback for the first time ever? To get stock in 2024 that they hope will be as good as the top-five pick they already possess?

Thankfully we only have to wait three weeks to find out the truth but I still think it’ll be fairly straight forward in the top-five.

C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young will be the top-two picks, with the order to be determined. I think it’ll be Stroud at #1.

Then the draft hinges on the Cardinals. It’s highly possible a team trades up for one of Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Arizona needs stock to fill out their roster, after a disastrous free agency period. They’re basically in rebuild mode.

If no sufficient offer comes forth, they’ll almost certainly take Will Anderson. That would be an excellent pick because he has talent, character and can help reset the culture in Arizona. Yet increasingly it feels like someone is going to trade up for Richardson. There’s a reason why Las Vegas, Atlanta and Tennessee are all having official-30 visits with him.

I do think the Seahawks will consider moving up too. They seem to have taken a real shine to Richardson. There’s a reason why Schneider was, according to Corbin Smith, chatting for considerable time to Richardson’s agent at the Florida pro-day, with Carroll having an audience with Billy Napier. It just feels like, whether they ultimately draft him or not, they’re intrigued.

If Arizona sticks and takes Anderson at #3, I would expect Will Levis to go to the Colts. Indianapolis needs a 2023 starter. Levis is better prepared to do that. I don’t know why people who were mocking Levis in the top-five two weeks ago are suddenly dropping him into the teens without explanation. I think it’s that time of year where one prognosticator does one thing and everyone copies. I appreciate why some teams won’t like Levis as an option but I think the Colts and Seahawks will be very prepared to select him considering who their GM’s are, their preferences, and the fit (Levis’ readiness to start for Indianapolis and success within Seattle’s scheme at Kentucky).

In the scenario where picks #3-4 go Anderson/Levis — I would expect the Seahawks to select Richardson at #5.

Anderson or Richardson. Worst case scenario, Levis.

Either way, a win-win-win for the Seahawks.

As for the rest of their picks — I think a few things. Firstly, there’s room for a skill-position pick like we saw a year ago with Ken Walker. That’s represented a ton in mocks with Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba the trendy picks. I think receiver could be an option but see Josh Downs as a more likely fit (or Jonathan Mingo on day two). They might prefer to invest in tight end due to the quality of the class and the need that will be present in 2024.

The ‘edge’ rusher group is not as good as some people are suggesting. There are a lot of names but most are day three types. It’s a position you have to strike early. If it’s not Will Anderson, I would expect Will McDonald to be an early target. Keep an eye on Derrick Hall too as he fits the profile perfectly that Seattle likes at the position. If they can’t get to the key names at the top, they might wait until later for someone like YaYa Diaby — who is having an official-30 visit.

Center will almost certainly be an early target with one of John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler seemingly destined to end up in Seattle.

Bodies are needed up front on defense and the Seahawks are very aware of that. Let’s remember though — this has often been a mid-round target. It won’t be a surprise if they see players like Cameron Young, Byron Young (Alabama), Jaquelin Roy and others as good quality snap eaters in the middle rounds, meaning they can focus on other areas early.

The #20-40 range could be a good area to add another player who can flip between three and five-technique to provide extra pressure up front.

It’s also a deep class at safety, full of aggressive, physical players and team captains. I think they’ve worked out they can comfortably replace Ryan Neal with a rookie drafted between rounds 3-5 — saving money.

And what do these players have in common? Anderson, the quarterbacks, Downs, Schmitz, Wypler, Byron Young, Hall, the safeties — high character, mature, pro’s before they’re pro’s.

When the 2023 draft is complete, I’m certain we’ll be looking at the class and acknowledging how important character was when it came to Seattle’s picks.

No Georgia defensive tackles will be included…

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I’ve added a few players to my horizontal draft board and tweaked some grades. You can see it in full here, just click on the image to enlarge:

I will do one more update to the board before the draft.

The ‘first round grades’ I’ve given are defined as legit first rounders who would be taken in that range in any draft. The players in the second tier (R1-2) are players I’d be very prepared to take in round one this year, albeit without the legit top-grade.

Some notes:

— I think Josh Downs is the clear WR1 in this draft. I think he’s a top-15 prospect overall. It’s mostly an unimpressive receiver class and that might make it hard for the Seahawks to address their need at WR3. Equally, it wouldn’t surprise me if they took someone like Downs earlier than people expect. My WR2 is Jonathan Mingo. I’ve been banging the drum for him for months and finally it seems like he’s getting some attention. I’ve dropped Quentin Johnston after a disappointing pro-day.

— It’s just so easy to like the top tight ends. They have a great combination of blocking ability and traits matching the top players at the position. We’ve identified the need to run well in the short shuttle and the 10-yard split if you want a physical profile matching the best in the NFL. That’s what this group has. They also complement pass-catching ability with a willingness to do the ugly side of the game in the trenches. It shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if the Seahawks take a tight end in the first two rounds. Otherwise you risk missing out. They can afford a ‘luxury’ pick for the future with one of these 10 selections. It could also produce a situation where you can trade Noah Fant after the draft to save $6.5m.

— I’ve moved Darnell Wright up to a legit first round prospect. That means he’d go in round one any year, per my own grading. He’s had a complete off-season. Terrific Senior Bowl. Explosive, athletic testing. Excellent combine drills. His tape is superb — particularly the way he locked-down Will Anderson. The other thing to mention though — remember that Will McDonald had success against him at the Senior Bowl. That wasn’t so much a knock on Wright as it was evidence of McDonald’s quality. If the Seahawks don’t take Anderson with their top pick, McDonald could be firmly on their radar — possibly at #20.

— Are there a lot of ‘edge’ rush names in this draft? Yes. Is it a good ‘edge’ rush class? No, not really.

— I’ve moved Tyree Wilson down to a ‘prepared to take in round one this year’ grade. I love his size, frame and ability to barge his way into the backfield. After re-watching his film though, he’s too inconsistent. He doesn’t win off the edge with speed. There are flashes on tape that get you excited but there’s also a lot of mediocre snaps where he goes through the motions. We don’t have any testing numbers to gauge upside. I think he’s a good prospect who has become a bit overrated as a top-five projection.

— I thought it was really interesting what John Schneider said about the nose tackle position last week. Basically, he suggested if you can play nose in college you can do it in the NFL. He didn’t place a big emphasis on it — making me wonder if they’ll take a random ‘big bodied’ player later in the draft who can soak up the needed snaps without a big investment. It’s why I think Jaquelin Roy might be a key target — he played a lot of snaps at LSU. But they might wait until day three to address this need.

— They’ve typically waited until the middle rounds to draft D-liners. Part of me wonders whether they’ll wait until the late second, third and fourth round to add youth and snaps to their defensive front. Cameron Young, Byron Young and Moro Ojomo are all very good mid-round options. It’s still a great thought to imagine Adetomiwa Adebawore, Calijah Kancey or Keion White disrupting from the front — and Zacch Pickens, Keeanu Benton and Mazi Smith remain good options too. If they did take Will Anderson at #5 — part of me wonders what it’d be like to see a pass rush featuring Anderson and Kancey. The lack of length could be seen as a problem with Kancey though.

— The cornerback class lacks the top-five talent it had a year ago but look how thick it is. I recently watched Corey Trice at Purdue and think he has excellent potential as a mid-round option. His team mate Reece Taylor isn’t bad either. LSU’s Jay Ward looks like a classic safety-to-cornerback convert in Seattle, while Rezjohn Wright screams ‘Seahawks’ with his frame. If they’re inclined to take a corner, the fourth or fifth round is a really good range to get one of ‘their guys’ to coach up. If Devon Witherspoon lasts to #20, part of me does wonder whether they’ll be too tempted by his swagger and intense passion for beating the crap out of opponents.

— People are sleeping on the safety class (I used to be one of them). It’s deep, rich and talented. It’s not full of other-worldly athletes but it is full of kick-arse football players. I can see why Seattle released Ryan Neal from his tender. They can save money drafting one of these guys in the round 3-5 range. It’s also a class full of alpha’s with outstanding character. Just listen to them all speak in interviews. It’s so impressive. JL Skinner, Sydney Brown, Ji’Ayir Brown, Jammie Robinson, DeMarcco Hellams, Jordan Howden, Jerrick Reed — all players I’ve watched interview recently and been wowed with their maturity, confidence and focus. It’d be a shame to come out of this draft not picking from the position. There’s a lot of talent here.

I’m travelling to Dubai with my family today for a week in the sun. I’ll continue to write and will react to anything breaking. If I don’t reply immediately to questions, that’s why — but I will respond.

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Another day, another slice of speculation featuring the top-five in the draft…

There is "buzz leaguewide" about the #Colts selecting Will Levis 4th overall, according to @JFowlerESPN

Fowler says that several NFL teams believe Levis could be the pick for Indianapolis. pic.twitter.com/NWMLY4Ar19

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) April 2, 2023

This one makes sense for a few reasons (and has done for a while).

When the season ended and Chicago earned the #1 pick, the early frontrunner to trade up to #1 was Indianapolis. After years of trying various ageing veterans — and the firing of Frank Reich — it was finally time to invest in a young QB.

Even owner Jim Irsay blurted out his admiration for Bryce Young during a press conference, before pitching his relationship with the Bears as a pathway to a deal.

The Colts didn’t move up though. As time passed by, it felt increasingly like they weren’t even in the running.

Sticking at #4 appeared to be a statement that they were comfortable with the top-four quarterbacks. They were guaranteed to get the third or fourth QB. If they graded all four similarly, there was no pressure to move up (unlike Carolina, who were picking ninth).

The other thing to consider here is the Colts need someone who can play now. They don’t have a Geno Smith, Jared Goff or Jimmy Garoppolo bridge. They have Gardner Minshew. They might start Minshew in 2023 but they need someone who can realistically replace him at some point, or push to start immediately.

That isn’t Anthony Richardson. He needs time and ideally a redshirt year.

Levis, on the other hand, has been coached by two NFL offensive coordinators. He understands pro-concepts and language. He’s older and more mature. He’s also faced a ton of adversity at Kentucky, which will prepare him for the inevitable challenge that comes with transitioning to the pro’s.

I’ve seen some people argue that the Colts might trade down or take Will Anderson, then wait for Hendon Hooker. It’s a suggestion, I suppose, yet it feels unrealistic. For example — it’d only take one other team usurping them on Hooker to mean they end up with no young quarterback and no viable solution at the position. If they’re banking on trading up from #35 to get the Tennessee QB, it’d only take Tampa Bay sweeping him away at #19 and it’s game over. Or Minnesota at #24. Or even Seattle at #20.

Could they trade for Lamar Jackson after the draft? Sure — but how does that work? The Ravens will likely match any off-sheet put in. If you try and negotiate with them separately on a trade, how much will that cost? Especially given the Ravens would be left with a black hole at the position with the draft and free agency in the rearview mirror.

Unless they move up to #3 and are prepared to sit Richardson or start him immediately, it just feels very likely the Colts are comfortable selecting Levis. If they weren’t, I’m pretty sure they would’ve been more aggressive to move up by now. Or they would’ve made more of a push for Lamar Jackson, or they would’ve signed (or traded for) a bigger name veteran such as Garoppolo.

This assumes Levis even reaches #4. I think there’s going to be quite a bit of variety among teams in terms of quarterback rankings. Some will be put off by Bryce Young’s size. Some will be intrigued by Richardson’s physical upside, others will want a more ready-made player. The fact that Levis has worked in the McVay and Shanahan system will appeal. Let’s not forget that Houston is featuring the Shanahan offense.

Let’s just park that for a moment and imagine this goes as many expect, with C.J. Stroud and Young making up the top-two. If the Colts don’t feel obliged to move up to #3 because they’re comfortable taking Levis, what then?

It comes down to what we’ve been suggesting for a long time. Does Arizona trade out of that spot for a team coming up for Anthony Richardson (or Levis)? Do the Cardinals stay where they are and select Will Anderson?

Either way, it has felt for weeks that Seattle’s pick could be Richardson or Anderson. Who lasts and do you like either enough to trade up?

Forget personal preferences for a moment. We’ve all heard by now who wants what.

To me it makes perfect sense that the Seahawks are deliberating between these two options (seeing who lasts to #5 or considering a trade up if they like a player enough to do so). Corbin Smith reported recently that John Schneider spent considerable time speaking to Richardson’s agent at Florida’s pro-day. He also noted that Pete Carroll had a private meeting with Billy Napier.

Smith joined Michael-Shawn Dugar of the Athletic in publishing a piece with a headline including the words, ‘Seahawks’ interest in top QBs is no smokescreen’.

It just feels like they’re really intrigued by Richardson. Is it really a surprise? He’s a physical phenom. We’ve never seen a player like this. Carroll and Schneider have always talked about looking for field-tilting ability. I’m not sure a player has entered the draft with Richardson’s level of upside at the quarterback position. There’s clearly been more polished, refined, pro-ready talents. But there’s so much to work with here. It’d be such a Carroll move to want to harness that talent and ability.

Then there’s Schneider — with his history of quarterbacks and reasonable reports of players he was previously interested in. Richardson ticks a lot of the boxes he has seemingly looked for. On top of that, I just get the feeling that John has been positioning himself for this draft since the Russell Wilson trade. That he’s been eyeing a quarterback here.

I appreciate that’s just a hunch on my behalf. Yet he’s always struck me as someone who will ultimately judge himself on his quarterback decision making. That’s pretty much the Green Bay way. That franchise prides itself on the fact they’ve almost over-prepared at the position at times, yet have enjoyed a run of Favre-to-Rodgers which is fairly unprecedented in terms of production and quality.

I guess what I’m saying is I don’t think Schneider traded away the quarterback he hit a home-run on without a plan which possibly included this specific draft class.

Yet there’s also the other side. The one that has to acknowledge that Seattle’s season ended with everyone looking enviously at San Francisco’s defensive line. Whether Will Anderson can be as impactful as Nick Bosa or not, he’s still a heck of a player. Adding him to the pass rush will be immensely attractive.

I think a lot of fact-finding has been going on over the last week or so. That’s as much a reason to attend the pro-days as anything — and let’s not forget, Anderson was part of one of those pro-days too. Who is going where? Who is thinking of trading up?

It’s very easy to imagine Schneider speaking to Richardson’s agent to scope out what he’s hearing. Perhaps even to ask to be kept in touch as they piece this together.

What I am pretty certain about though, is that the Seahawks are not — as some fans might prefer — ‘definitely not taking a quarterback’. I think it’s a very real possibility. I think they’re weighing things up. You can afford to do this when you’re picking fifth overall and have a bunch of picks to play with.

Do they want to trade up to #3 to guarantee the third quarterback — who they might rate very highly, irrespective of the fact they’re the third QB to leave the board (after all — Josh Allen was the third taken and so was Justin Herbert)?

Do they want to trade up to #3 to guarantee Will Anderson?

How much are they prepared to spend to do it?

Or do they just want to see how the cards fall at #5?

I wouldn’t be surprised if this is a discussion that is being had, or has been had. If trading up is a non-starter than you sit and see what lasts. You might be delighted with the end result. You might be disappointed. They’ve got to determine what emotion they want to feel on draft night. Elation at getting the ‘must have’ player (if one exists) or contentment that you settled for what’s left.

How gutted will you be if you’re eyeing one player and have to settle for another, because another team traded up to #3?

Personally I’d be very excited about Richardson or Anderson. I suspect the Seahawks feel similarly — and I’d add Levis to that mix too. It’s just whether one player has emerged during this process that they really ‘have to have’. If so, go get him. If not, then it’s all good.

It’s why I’ve tried to stress a few times this off-season that the Seahawks are in a good place, with some very attractive options. It’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. But I think we can see a picture emerging of the options facing Seattle — and the likely players they’ll be able to consider.

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It feels necessary to write this again. The options for Seattle in this draft are really good.

I first made that case after the final game of the regular season. The Seahawks had dropped from the #3 pick to #5. A lot of people were dismayed but it was still a great position to be in.

At the time I argued there were four really good quarterbacks and two excellent defensive players in range. Even if you had to pick the fifth player instead of the third, you were in position to get one of the top talents in the 2023 class.

I’ve since adjusted that approach because a lot has emerged about Jalen Carter through various reports. I’ve also been able to dig around a bit and say, with confidence, I don’t expect Carter to be a consideration at #5.

So now we’re down to the four quarterbacks and Will Anderson. That’s still a great place to be. You’re going to get a really talented player at a premium position.

I’m not sure why a large section of the fanbase is so against the quarterback options. I suspect the media narrative has had a negative impact, plus there’s a strong loyalty to Geno Smith — even if his contract is perfectly setup for the Seahawks to move on as early as next year.

Twelve months ago sections of the media were saying Malik Willis might go second overall. Then we had Desmond Ridder being touted as a first round pick. There was more buzz for a group of backup-level players in 2022 than there is about a group who are potentially going to fill out the first four picks of this draft.

This is an excellent crop, way beyond what we saw a year ago. The same source who told me he thought all of the top 2022 quarterbacks were third rounders, told me early in the process this year that the top four QB’s will go in the top-10 — and that Hendon Hooker could easily find a home in round one too.

There’s a fear factor among Seahawks fans I want to push-back against. The view is that these quarterbacks would be a wasted pick compared to a defensive player who can contribute immediately, in a more impactful way.

I’d argue the Seahawks have created the ideal environment for a young signal caller to succeed. Sitting and learning for at least a year is a good thing. With the extreme physical talent of the quarterbacks at the top of this class — it’s possible a smooth transition to a new long-term starter could create a situation where the franchise is set-up for the next 10-15 years at the most important position in football.

No, the quarterbacks available are not flawless. They rarely are. Yet as I noted last week, people said incredibly unflattering things about Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Had the Seahawks selected either with a top-five pick, I suspect fans would’ve been howling in pain at the decision based on the perception of both players.

Mahomes benefitted from sitting for a year. Allen benefitted from patience afforded as he went through a two-year learning curve. People forget Allen was a meme for a couple of seasons before the light switched on. Now, the Bills are seen as annual contenders because of their quarterback.

Even Pete Carroll and John Schneider have seemingly gone out of their way to set the table for the possibility of a quarterback pick — talking about the rare opportunity afforded Seattle to select this early in a good QB draft.

Having the opportunity to draft a player and develop them for the future would be a good thing at this position. While there’s no certainty it’ll work out — the same is easily true of any defender you take in the top-five.

Equally, if the Seahawks don’t trade up, increasingly it looks like someone else will. That would mean Will Anderson potentially lasting to #5 — unless the Colts also trade down so someone else can land the top defender.

This feels like a cause for celebration, not anger or argument. Seattle can get an exciting quarterback or Will Anderson. Tremendous!

I think the Seahawks will be enamoured with Anderson and Anthony Richardson. We’re talking about an ideal scheme-fit defender with all of the high character, alpha-dog mentality, production and physicality Seattle craves. We’re also talking about the kind of physical talent at quarterback that gets Schneider and Carroll out of bed in the morning. Carroll runs a development program and with Richardson, he’d get to try and develop a player the likes of which we’ve never seen before.

I also think they will be fond of Will Levis. I know he seems to be persona non grata in mock drafts at the moment but I’m not sold on that. He’s a physical marvel, highly intelligent and he’s well versed in pro-schemes. In particular, you can watch 2021 tape and see him excelling in something akin to Seattle’s offense.

However, Richardson is just taking the league by storm. The buzz is legit. The upside is through the roof. He has a magical charisma to him — and it’s no wonder there’s a growing feeling someone will trade up to #3 to secure his services so that they can work to turn him into a star.

At #5, the Seahawks could sit tight and get either Richardson or Anderson. It’s also possible, however, neither will be there.

If they are the two players Seattle is focusing on, then I think they should try and trade up. The only reason not to is if they rate Levis highly enough (and I think Schneider might) to stick at #5.

Otherwise — the statement of, ‘we might never be here again’ needs to be taken seriously. That’s not just about having the chance to pick at #5. It’s about being within striking distance of moving up to get a player you really want.

You can eliminate any doubt or mystery by trading up to #3 or #4 with Arizona or Indianapolis. If the Cardinals are willing to deal with a division rival and be realistic over compensation, do it. If the Colts are comfortable taking Levis and are therefore happy to trade down to #5, do it.

If it costs you #37 to make that move, so be it. If it costs #20, so be it. If you have the conviction that Richardson is the next superstar QB or that Anderson can be the lead stud on your defense for the next decade — make the move.

Nobody looks back at the Mahomes trade and talks about the extra first rounder Kansas City gave up. Nobody talks about the two second round picks Buffalo used to get Allen.

The Seahawks have 10 picks in this draft — ample to address needs later on.

I also think we need to be realistic about where this team is. They aren’t a draft away from being a contender. It will probably take another off-season to reach that position.

So if this is year two of a process — continue the process. You have a top-five pick. If trading to #3 or #4 gets you a player you believe can be a star, make that move. The one thing this roster lacks currently is a true, elite-level star player.

It’ll be harder to find that player in future drafts when the team is back picking in the second half of round one.

I’ll promise you this — if the Seahawks trade #20 to select Anthony Richardson or Will Anderson at #3, I won’t complain if it doesn’t work out. I’ll applaud the move. The boldness. The ambition. The conviction.

Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Sometimes you have to take a risk. The key is to take the right kind of risk. Trading two first rounders for a box safety isn’t the right kind of risk. This, however, would be.

So unless they simply think Levis is as good as Richardson, or that Tyree Wilson is as good as Anderson, they should be thinking about the kind of bold trade-up that is suddenly being speculated by Vic Tafur and Tony Pauline.

The sooner you make that move, the more time you have to scale down your thought process to get this pick right. If you make the move to #3 in the coming days — you’ll have three weeks to determine whether it’s Richardson or Anderson you want (while keeping the door open on C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young, just in case). You can forget about any other players you might be considering at #5.

‘Pay the iron price’ as someone declared in one of my recent live streams. Using the #20 or #37 pick to move up would be a hefty price. But with 10 total picks and five in the first three rounds — you have the stock to make a move up the board and still address several other needs.

It’ll be worth it if Richardson becomes the next superstar quarterback or Anderson the next game-wrecking defender.

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I’ve got my notes on Anthony Richardson’s pro-day coming up but first I wanted to reflect on speculation provided by two separate reporters.

Firstly, Vic Tafur of ‘the Athletic’ posted this in his report from the NFL owners meeting:

But the buzz at Monday night’s NFL party, with owners, general managers, coaches, agents and reporters hitting the open bar, was that all four quarterbacks will be long gone by the time the Raiders pick at No. 7.

That’s relevant assuming the Raiders aren’t blowing smoke and are really interested in the four quarterbacks — given that they just gave Garoppolo $33.75 million guaranteed and a 6-11 team should probably keep all its draft picks rather than try and trade up.

The buzz is that the Seahawks will jump up from No. 5 to No. 3 to grab either Richardson or Levis, as Stroud and Young are expected to go 1-2. The Cardinals can move down to No, 5 and still get the top defensive player, as the Colts are expected to also draft a QB at No. 4.

It’s perhaps telling that Michael-Shawn Dugar, the Seahawks reporter for ‘the Athletic’, also wrote an article titled, ‘Seahawks’ interest in top QBs is no smokescreen‘:

Seattle knows that picking this high in the draft again is unlikely. Since 2011, Seattle’s average native first-round slot has been in the 20s. The Seahawks rarely (if ever) have 20 prospects with first-round grades, which is why they’ve so often traded back in the first round or traded out of the round entirely. Schneider’s history of trading down in the first round has contributed to the belief that the Seahawks’ interest in the top quarterbacks is a ruse. But there’s a notable difference between picking No. 5 and pick No. 25, so Seattle’s previous draft strategies aren’t necessarily applicable this year.

Further evidence Seattle isn’t bluffing about possibly selecting a quarterback: Carroll has already relayed to Smith that it’s legitimately on the table.

Clearly, it seems, there was a theme at the league meeting — accurate or not — that Seattle is in the QB market in this draft.

Friend of the blog Tony Pauline added to this yesterday, reporting:

Speculation from league insiders during Florida’s pro day is the Seattle Seahawks could be the team that leapfrogs the Indianapolis Colts and trades up with the Arizona Cardinals to secure Richardson. Several reasons were given.

The cost to move up won’t be much for the Seahawks, who have another first-round pick — the 20th selection.

Additionally, the general manager and coach who draft Richardson have to be on safe footing. Even Russell Wilson couldn’t get Pete Carroll and John Schneider fired. Finally, Richardson is the type of freaky athlete that the Seahawks have drafted in the past and had success with — think Tariq Woolen and DK Metcalf.

What should we make of all this?

When I listened to Carroll speak candidly to Steve Wyche about drafting a quarterback (see below) it really convinced me that they were prepared to take one. This didn’t feel like a great ruse. It felt like a coach laying out a situation, almost preparing everyone for a possibility:

The Seahawks are digging in on the rookie QB evaluations. What’s this mean for Geno Smith? Some interesting stuff here from HC Pete Carroll from our conversation Sunday at the league meetings. pic.twitter.com/3FaNBhu7wA

— Steve Wyche (@wyche89) March 28, 2023

This doesn’t mean the Seahawks were definitely going to draft a quarterback. I just think it highlighted a situation we’ve discussed a lot. I think they’re comfortable taking Will Anderson or one of the top four quarterbacks at #5.

I must admit though, these latest reports made me think.

It’s possible the wheels are in motion behind the scenes. The Seahawks wouldn’t leak this info to a Tafur or Pauline directly but if they’re chatting to other teams, scoping out what Arizona is actually being offered at #3 to help them determine their next move, that could be brought up at a cocktail party at the owners meeting quite easily.

Or, maybe they’re trying to shift things into gear? Spook a team into trading up to #3, increasing the chances of Will Anderson lasting to #5?

I’m sure people will shape their view based on their own personal preferences.

I then come onto my own personal impression that I don’t think the Seahawks are disinterested in the QB’s and wonder, would they cook-up such an elaborate poker game to avoid taking one? Is Anderson really worth all this effort? If they don’t take a quarterback when they’re in the top-five with a well established ‘top-four’ — when will they? I’m pretty sure the plan isn’t solely to ride or die with Geno Smith.

I’m fascinated by the whole mystery of it all. I’m eager to know what the reality is.

I will say again that I think these quarterbacks are factory made for John Schneider. These are the types of player he goes for. The thought of him trading up to make sure he gets the guy he wants is not as fanciful as some think.

I just remain sceptical about the viability of trading with a division rival. Does Monti Ossenfort, the new Cardinals GM, really want his first big move in the job to be a trade so that a division rival can draft a potential franchise quarterback? That would be career suicide if the player turns out to be great.

Can he risk the Seahawks trading up to #3 and taking Anderson instead of a QB?

What’s the price to move up two spots? It feels like a difficult one to work out. If the Cardinals are moving back knowing they can still get the guy they want, then it doesn’t exactly help their bargaining position because that’s a feather in Seattle’s cap compared to say the Raiders at #7, Falcons at #8 or Titans at #11.

Equally, the Seahawks only need to move up to stop somebody else doing it. So if they end up having to outbid another team, that could get expensive.

I’m torn. The Seahawks clearly want to build their defense and trading up for a quarterback makes that harder. At the same time, this is a rare opportunity to get a potential star quarterback for the long term. John Schneider was supposedly prepared to be aggressive to trade prime Russell Wilson for a chance to draft Josh Allen, plus he was reportedly prepared to draft Patrick Mahomes to usurp Wilson. We know he’s willing to be bold at the position.

It could be a fascinating few days. What I think this does tell us, however, is that we’re on the right track here. Whether they want to move up or just want to sucker someone else to do it so Anderson falls — the four quarterbacks and Will Anderson are likely the players we should focus on. You’re not trading up for Jalen Carter or Tyree Wilson and you’re not hoping for either of those two to last to #5 by shifting Arizona out of the #3 spot.

My prediction is the Seahawks won’t trade up. I think it’d be silly, however, to ignore what’s being speculated — especially when it’s coming from two non-related sources.

Now onto my pro-day notes for Anthony Richardson…

I was listening to Jordan Palmer courtesy of ‘the 33rd team’ this week and he had some interesting things to say about Richardson. Palmer attended the Manning Passing Academy last year. He says people who witnessed that event were referring to Richardson’s physical performance as ‘legendary’ —- with onlookers amazed by how effortless he was launching the ball downfield.

Jim Nagy and Jake Heaps have offered similar sentiments, saying that at an event where Bryce Young was present, Richardson and Will Levis stood out the most due to their strong arms and athleticism.

At the Florida pro-day, you can see why everyone was so awestruck. You will never, ever see a player throw the ball with this level of velocity and power with so little energy exerted to deliver a pass. It’s unique. It’s barely believable. It speaks to the titanic-sized potential Richardson possesses.

Each of the pro-days have been different so far. C.J. Stroud’s was up-tempo and rapid. There was no messing around — he got into his throws quickly and sprayed accurate passes all over the field. Young’s was low-key and almost felt like he was saying, ‘let’s get this out of the way’. Levis showed off his physical qualities and the throwing session was brilliantly designed by the aforementioned Palmer.

Richardson was free and loose. There was nothing mechanical about his drops or footwork. At times it was like he was just playing catch in the backyard. He’d hop around on the spot, then flick his wrist and fire a laser to the target — often deep downfield. He was jogging and then lofting passes 60-70 yards like it was nothing. On several of his throws he was sporting a huge grin on his face. This was not a pressurised environment. If Stroud and Levis were business-like and Young intent on moving on in the process, Richardson was out there having a blast.

There’s nothing technically impressive about Richardson. The whole workout felt like he was saying, ‘bollocks to this — we all know I need to sit for a year or two and develop, so I’m just going to show off my arm’. And show off he did.

I’ve never seen anything like it. Josh Allen is the closest I can think of but his pro-day was a bit more classically designed. Richardson was freelancing today and showed this incomparable ability to generate a frozen-rope level spiral with maximum velocity without exerting himself. He throws with as much tenacity as I might throw a soft-toy to my six-year-old daughter. Yet he still generates a world class, jaw-dropping level of torque and distance.

This is natural, physical ability at its finest.

His release is slightly elongated which is a contrast to the others. It does make me wonder if he’s spent any time gaining technical coaching this off-season. We know Levis has been working with Palmer (along with DTR, Hendon Hooker and Max Duggan). Levis’ release point is high and tight. Richardson does drop his arm and come around, then up, to release. It’s not a massive issue but something worth noting.

You only have to look at Richardson to see he belongs on the front cover of a sports magazine. His frame is incredible. He’s just sensationally built and in proportion. This is what a superstar looks like. I generally think if a player has flaws but has the upside to reach an elite level, provided he has the right application and attitude, they are worth taking a chance on. By all accounts, Richardson has that attitude and application. In the right environment, he can be one of the faces of the league.

He jogged to his left on a couple of occasions, threw across his body and nailed the velocity and placement. I would’ve personally liked to see more structure to the workout at times. Levis was running extended bootlegs and play action, then throwing realistic NFL passes against imaginary situations. The pitch-and-catch nature of Richardson’s session was interesting to an extent but it would’ve been good to see some tougher challenges.

Even so, I enjoyed watching him flex with this display of power.

He threw a couple of lofted mid-range fades which were ‘wow’ deliveries. There was one shot across his body to the right hand side where I can barely believe how easily he threw it 60-yards downfield, with great height and placement, into the range for a receiver to run under. The downfield stuff was effortless.

He quickened the pace after a warm-up and rolled into some five-step drops. The throws came out with reasonable timing but I think he can deliver quicker than this. As on tape, there are some slightly higher throws than necessary on easy layups. Yet he can also launch to the sideline with ease on mid-range outs. On some of those reps he was delivering a ball most players simply cannot.

Richardson threw some 40-yard passes to the right sideline that just exploded out of his hand. He followed it up with some play-action work, mimicking looking off the safety down the middle then with no resetting of his feet, throwing to the left sideline with ideal punch and velocity.

He took some under-center snaps where he fell into a three-step drop. Richardson then showed off a hitch on a slant and go before floating a beautiful downfield shot towards the left sideline.

They had one of the coaches provide some mock pressure. Richardson span out of it, then as he was running to his left, threw across his body and landed a perfect pass 60-yards downfield hitting the receiver in stride. He made it look easy.

Richardson showed off his arm, launching a pass from the 12-yard line to the 18-yard line at the opposite end of the field. He gets great height on his downfield throws. Young’s were quite flat I thought at Alabama but Richardson gets the height necessary for a receiver to track with ease and run under the throw. This was evidenced by the fact he hit the roof on one pass, just as Levis did at his pro-day.

He had another deep shot with an exaggerated play-fake to the left, then he ran back to the right and launched it downfield like he was throwing a 10-yard slant. Loft, precision, velocity. It was a stunning throw, hitting the receiver deep downfield in stride. Masterful.

There are no physical limitations here. For any team wanting an explosive downfield passer, he can be it. He’ll be able to throw from difficult angles under pressure and he won’t need perfect technique to generate an accurate, powerful throw because he’s just so uniquely created physically. I’ve seen defenders hanging off him and he still hits the mark.

I don’t think there’ll be another Anthony Richardson and I haven’t seen anyone like this before. I feel confident saying there may never be a player with greater upside. That doesn’t mean it’ll work out and of course — there’s always a risk factor. There is with any high pick, even the perceived ‘safe’ picks (see: Aaron Curry).

Yet the prospect of it working out for him is well worth not only a top-five pick but also an aggressive move to make sure you get him.

I think someone is going to do it. I’m not sure who. But the chance of four quarterbacks going in the top-four has, in my opinion, become a very real possibility.

The four high-profile quarterback pro-days were fun to watch and highlighted positives with each player. If Trey Lance can have a bad pro-day like he did and still coax a team to trade up for him, I’d say that suggests there’s an extremely strong chance these four will be top-five picks.

If you missed our live stream yesterday discussing this topic in more detail, check it out here:

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