It’s starting to feel like the first three picks will all be quarterbacks.

In an article by the Athletic’s Jeff Howe, the mood music in the NFL is being played:

Speaking with team executives — who were granted anonymity to speak freely — throughout the week, the consensus remains that Alabama’s Bryce Young, Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud and Kentucky’s Will Levis are in the top tier with extremely high-end talent. Florida’s Anthony Richardson is also viewed as a first-round candidate.

We’ve had drafts before where two or three quarterbacks emerge as the ‘got to have’ group. In those instances, teams have been very aggressive trading up to make sure they don’t miss out. In 2023, it feels we’ll see that again.

Panthers GM Scott Fitterer is already talking publicly about trading up. Impatient owner David Tepper has been after a quarterback since buying the team five years ago. It feels inevitable that Carolina will do what it takes to get into the top three.

The Colts are in a similar position. After years of renting ageing veterans, they now need to invest in a young player for the long term.

Houston at #2 are also expected to draft a quarterback (but they could be a wildcard to go defense, we’ll see). Thus, it feels like Chicago’s #1 pick and Arizona’s #3 pick will be the prime trade spots.

In this mock I wanted to represent that thought and see what it means for the Seahawks. I also want to reflect on what happened at the Senior Bowl.

I think Seattle’s best plan would be to avoid spending millions on Geno Smith, invest in other areas of the team and draft a quarterback to build around for the future. I see no reason why any of the top four quarterbacks, for example, couldn’t do what Jalen Hurts has done in Philadelphia.

That said — if there’s a rush on the position, their options will be limited. Spending to retain Smith might be indicative of the situation they find themselves in. If they don’t view the fourth best quarterback as a good option at #5, they might feel like they’re left with little choice. That doesn’t mean they should be signing Smith to a ridiculous contract like some outlets are suggesting. But it might motivate them to find common ground.

Onto the mock…

The trades explained

I have the Colts trading up to #1 in a deal with the Bears. As part of the arrangement, Chicago receives Indianapolis’ first and third round picks in 2024, a third rounder in 2023 and DeForest Buckner. The Bears ensure they get one of the top-two defenders by sticking in the top-four.

Carolina moves up from #9 to #3, giving the Cardinals one of their second round picks (#61) and their 2024 first round pick. It’s cheaper than the Trey Lance trade because Arizona can stay in the top ten and get a second rounder this year.

First round

#1 Indianapolis (v/CHI) — C.J. Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
I think Stroud will emerge as the most coveted quarterback in the class. His touch passes, to all levels of the field, are the best I’ve season from a quarterback since starting the blog in 2008. He is physically impressive and has excellent character. The one concern was his ability to play outside of Ohio State’s scheme which held his hand for two years. Against Georgia, college football’s elite team, he put all concerns to bed with a creative, improvising, brilliant performance.

#2 Houston — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
I spoke to someone ‘in the league’ before the 2022 draft and he told me ‘the league’ was buzzing about Stroud and Young. The concerns about Young’s size are legit and don’t be surprised if he lasts a bit longer than some think. However, he has a winners mentality which will likely appeal to new Head Coach DeMeco Ryans and let’s not forget Ryans has just been coaching in San Francisco, where they’ve enjoyed success with non-prototypes like Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy.

#3 Carolina (v/ARI) — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
The Levis negativity has been preposterous at times. Kentucky were a shambles in 2022. When they had a semblance of an offensive line and a second round pick at receiver in 2021, plus a switched-on Sean McVay disciple at coordinator, Levis was outstanding. It wouldn’t be a surprise to me if the Seahawks had legit interest in Levis, due to his familiarity with their scheme. I think the Panthers will see an ideal fit and a player who can start quickly for a competitive roster that already has a defense and an O-line in place. They’re ready to win a poor NFC South.

#4 Chicago (v/IND) — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
If the Bears land DeForest Buckner by trading down from #1 to #4, their next aim should be to land a dynamic edge rusher. Anderson would provide a genuine threat.

#5 Seattle — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
Many people consider Carter to be the best player in the draft. So why could he fall to #5? It’s not just Todd McShay referring to character concerns. Lance Zierlein in his write-up for Carter notes, “Scouts say maturity has been an issue for him at times.” Then there’s our own homework on this blog, discovering that Carter spoke last April about how improving his conditioning was a priority in 2022, only to see him look as tired as any player I’ve ever seen in college football half-way through the crucial Ohio State playoff game while also labouring during the first drive of the LSU game in the SEC Championship. The concerns are legit. However, the Seahawks have needed a player like this for a long time. They might be prepared to roll the dice, simply because he’s that talented. Don’t be surprised though if during this process, there’s increased chatter about how teams view Carter.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
Robinson will be the top rated player on many draft boards. He is exceptional — one of the best players to enter the league in recent years. The Lions snap him up and feel great about it. He is a complete playmaker and can mix Christian McCaffrey’s versatility with Saquon Barkley’s explosive qualities. He changes direction better than both players and accelerates in a way I don’t recall seeing before. A formidable talent.

#7 Las Vegas — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
I think the Raiders will solve their quarterback situation by trading for Aaron Rodgers. I don’t know what that deal would look like, given he’s 40-years-old this year and the Packers have a nightmare cap situation. He’s also coming off a middling season. Thus, it might not be that expensive to get him — with both player and team in Green Bay seemingly ready to part ways. This would free up Vegas to look elsewhere at #7. We all know Wilson has great length and size. He is unique in that regard. His testing will be key though because he won’t go seventh overall purely due to long arms and a great body. If he can show quickness, agility and explosive traits, look out.

#8 Atlanta — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
I think there’s every chance Richardson goes earlier than this. Not enough people are focusing on his superstar potential. Instead they’re clinging to negatives for a player with one season of starting experience. When you look at him as someone with unlimited upside and the potential to be one of the faces of the NFL — it’s not hard to imagine him going in the top-five. Yes he has plenty to work on but so do most players entering the league. He could be a dynamo in Atlanta with the offense they’re building.

#9 Arizona (v/CAR) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
After moving down from #3, the Cardinals invest in a cornerback who is fiery and competitive, has decent size and is going to be among the best testers at the combine. He has playmaking quality and could go very early.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
A Rolls Royce of a defender who is so versatile and can do a bit of everything. He is going to rise and rise throughout this process. Both of Philly’s starters at his position are hitting free agency.

#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
This would be a perfect pick for the Titans. Mayer is one of the best prospects in the draft and will be a very good player early in his career.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
When you watch Musgrave on the field, you see what a special athlete looks like at the tight end position. He’s so fluid and almost glides at his size. He’s also a good blocker and will be coveted by many teams. He could be Houston’s answer to George Kittle.

#13 NY Jets — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
Sanders is highly athletic, flies around the field, hits with violence and when you line him up off the edge, he can produce sacks (9.5 in 2022). There’s every chance he works into the top-15 range.

#14 New England — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
Murphy is an overrated player, promoted beyond his means due to his outstanding athleticism and expected combine performance. However, someone is going to take a chance on him in this range because the positional value and the reward for the light switching on is too great.

#15 Green Bay — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
The Packers are heading into a new era and it could be one that comes with a new identity. Loading up their front seven and continuing to add as many pass rush weapons as possible could be a post-Aaron Rodgers plan.

#16 Washington — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
The Commanders need a corner and Porter Jr has the size, the physical tools, the competitive nature and a very balanced, well-spoken manner (he’s not like his dad as a player!) and teams will likely be very high on him.

#17 Pittsburgh — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
The Steelers need to get a lot done on defense and the highly competitive Witherspoon would be a good fit in Pittsburgh.

#18 Detroit — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
The Lions continue to add talent. If they are able to put Bijan Robinson and Calijah Kancey onto a blossoming roster — watch out.

#19 Tampa Bay — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
Tackle isn’t an immediate need for the Buccs but due to their major cap issues, they might look to move Donovan Smith to save money and shift Tristan Wirfs to the blind-side. That would open up a spot at right tackle for Wright. Even if they keep Smith — they could slot Wright in at right guard and be a team that tries to stay competitive post-Tom Brady by winning in the trenches.

#20 Seattle — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
John Schneider was recently interviewed by 710 Seattle Sports and he said, in relation to the 2022 draft, that they focused more on talent than need. It’s no coincidence that they had their best draft in years. So why do I have them drafting a right tackle, one year after hitting a home-run with Abraham Lucas? There are, actually, some valid reasons why this could happen. Firstly, Jones is a special talent. There simply aren’t many humans who are 6-8, 375lbs, have nearly 37-inch arms and carry minimal bad weight. If we’re talking best player available, he might be it here. Secondly, the Seahawks have been known to move their linemen around — rightly or wrongly. Damien Lewis excelled as a rookie at right guard, before being bumped over to the left to accommodate Gabe Jackson. It wouldn’t go against the grain for the Seahawks to shift Lucas from right tackle to right guard, where many NFL evaluators projected him a year ago. Finally, there’s the scheme to consider. The Seahawks have transplanted the Rams zone-blocking system. The Rams under McVay typically have lighter converted tackles starting at guard. They also like size at tackle. When they won the Super Bowl they had college tackles Austin Corbett (6-4, 306lbs) and David Edwards (6-6, 308lbs) at guard and Rob Havenstein (6-8, 330lbs) at right tackle. So it’s perhaps not a total stretch that Lucas could move to right guard with Jones taking over at tackle. It’s not necessarily what I would do but I don’t think it’s something to completely write-off as a possibility.

#21 Miami — forfeited
The Dolphins really needed this pick to kick on.

#22 LA Chargers — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
Johnston is going to shine at the combine and when that happens, he will have a floor in round one and this might be it.

#23 Baltimore — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
He performed well at the Senior Bowl and reminded everyone why he was so highly rated going into the 2022 season. He has everything to be an excellent edge rusher but needs to find a way to become consistent and make the most of his incredible athleticism and length.

#24 Minnesota — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
The Vikings need a cornerback and I think teams are going to be attracted to Smith’s playing style and size.

#25 Jacksonville — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
He has a sixth gear that allows him to create late separation and it can be deadly on downfield shots.

#26 NY Giants — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
Flowers is an incredibly talented player who could go earlier than this. His ability to change direction and accelerate is the best I’ve seen since starting the blog in 2008.

#27 Dallas — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Skoronski is difficult to assess. He has to kick inside due to a lack of length and he can be out-leveraged due to his short arms. Is he powerful enough? There are things to like though — he’s a natural lineman with reasonable technique and he has NFL bloodlines.

#28 Buffalo — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
Gibbs warrants consideration here as a major X-factor talent. He’s a tremendous receiver and could be reliably used in the passing game and during two-minute drills. At times he carried Alabama last season and was a threat to score every time he touched the ball. If he doesn’t run in the 4.2’s or 4.3’s it’ll be a surprise.

#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
He had a tremendous 2022 season and he could be an absolute force in a Cincy offense that has so many ways to beat you already.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
After an excellent Senior Bowl, he’s trending upwards. The Saints badly need some interior defensive line help. Benton can contribute as a run defender and a pass rusher.

#31 Kansas City — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
The Chiefs love big-time athletes and often draft combine stars. Smith is going to be one of the standouts in Indianapolis and could go earlier than this.

#32 Philadelphia — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
He has plenty of flashes on tape but the fact is he wasn’t a starter at Iowa.

Round two

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
In an attempt to make life easier for Kenny Pickett, why not add a receiver he helped to win the Biletnikoff in 2021?

#34 Houston — Broderick Jones (G, Georgia)
He keeps dipping his head into blocks and there are concerns about his size that could see him kick inside to guard.

#35 Arizona — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
The Cardinals continue to build up their defensive front with a player who may be unorthodox but finished the season with 13.5 sacks.

#36 Indianapolis — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
After moving on from DeForest Buckner, the Colts bring in a replacement with a lot of athletic upside. Bresee falls, however, because he’s simply missed too many games through injury and illness, he is incredibly inconsistent and his arm length is a question mark.

#37 LA Rams — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
A long lean cornerback who has a knack for breaking on the ball to make interceptions (six in 2022 including three pick-sixes).

#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
The Seahawks have a history of tapping into talent from the Senior Bowl and nobody impressed more than ‘Ade Ade’ this year. He was dominant at times in the 1v1 sessions — showing an ability to drive blockers back into the pocket, disengage and explode to the quarterback. He regularly had team-mates howling with delight at his reps. He lasts this long purely due to his tweener nature. At 6-1 and 284lbs he doesn’t have a natural home off the edge or inside. He’s going to have to be a rotational impact player. However, that’s justifiable for a team like the Seahawks who badly lack any kind of consistent disruption. His 34-inch arms at his height mean he wins so many leverage battles and with nearly 11-inch hands — he clamps onto opponents and finishes. He is expected to run a 4.05 short shuttle and a 6.9 three-cone, plus jump a 37.5 inch vertical. I almost feel like I’m talking myself out of putting him here and slotting him into round one. The size could hold him back — for Seattle though, this is another potential impact player for their defensive front.

#39 Las Vegas — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
This is the type of corner Josh McDaniels drafted for Denver. Turner will impress at the combine.

#40 Carolina — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
Kraft is a highly underrated player who deserves top-40 consideration. He’s not far behind the top-three TE’s.

#41 New Orleans — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
As they reload their defense — adding a dynamic edge would be a wise move. Ojulari combines length, talent and leadership to make for an intriguing player.

#42 Tennessee — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
I’m still not fully sold on Schmitz. He has the size for Seattle’s blocking scheme but I’m always left wanting a bit more from him. Good but arguably not much potential to be great.

#43 Cleveland — K.J. Henry (EDGE, Clemson)
Of all Clemson’s D-liners, he was the most disruptive in 2022.

#44 NY Jets — JL Skinner (S, Boise State)
Robert Salah brings in a player who somewhat resembles Kam Chancellor.

#45 Atlanta — Zach Harrison (DE, Ohio State)
Harrison will go to the combine, put on a show and some teams will throw out the lack of production and inconsistent play and believe they can make him a starter.

#46 Green Bay — Christopher Smith (S, Georgia)
He had such a good season for the Bulldogs — flying around as a free safety, running up to the line and hitting with a powerful punch. I think someone will fall in love with him.

#47 New England — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
This is the type of tweener-linebacker-rusher Bill Belichick keeps drafting. His character will appeal to New England too.

#48 Washington — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
Simpson did not have a good 2022 season and will rely on good testing numbers to stick in round two.

#49 Detroit — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
Ringo is a great athlete with amazing size but he gets beat far too often — on both deep routes and shorter inside slants.

#50 Pittsburgh — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
I’ve always felt underwhelmed watching him.

#51 Tampa Bay — Steve Avila (G, TCU)
I thought he had a fantastic season and did enough in Mobile to go in round two.

#52 Jacksonville — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
An athletic, strong player who is flying under the radar.

#53 Miami — Jaelyn Duncan (T, Maryland)
He did well at the Senior Bowl at tackle but his future might be at guard. He’s expected to perform well at the combine.

#54 Seattle — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
The Seahawks need to find a proper WR3. They’ve been looking for a long time but have consistently fallen short. If Downs lasts this far, they should run to the podium. He is a Tyler Lockett clone. He is so dynamic to create separation on shorter routes, he can drive downfield and provide X-factor plays, he can shake away from tight coverage in the red zone and he makes improbable catches including high-pointing the ball beyond taller defenders. Downs has NFL bloodlines — his father played in the league and his Uncle is Dre Bly. His personality is mature and focused, also similar to Lockett. He would be the perfect WR3 and fit wonderfully in Seattle.

#55 NY Giants — Kenny McIntosh (RB, Georgia)
Kirby Smart called McIntosh a bad MF so that’s good enough for me.

#56 Chicago (v/BAL) — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
I’ve always thought he was just steady but the Georgia game suggested he might be ‘steady’ even against top opponents and that has some appeal.

#57 LA Chargers — Byron Young (DE, Alabama)
He consistently pushed the pocket in Mobile having done the same all season at Alabama. He is big, disruptive and tailor-made for the league.

#58 Dallas — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
A ‘wow’ player who could lead Dallas’ running back for the next few years. He’s quick with an explosive lower-body and he can be a useful tool in the passing game. Love him.

#59 Cincinnati — O’Cyrus Torrence (G, Florida)
The Bengals tend to draft offensive lineman I think are overrated.

#60 Detroit (v/MIN) — Tank Dell (WR, Houston)
A late run on receivers starts with a player who did well to show crisp route-running and suddenness in Mobile.

#61 Arizona (v/CAR, SF) — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
An underrated player who can help fill the void left when D’Andre Hopkins is dealt.

#62 Buffalo — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
Someone will eventually take him because he does have talent but his lack of speed and size limits his value, plus he missed virtually the whole of 2022 through injury.

#63 Kansas City — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
A big, downfield threat for Patrick Mahomes.

#64 Philadelphia — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s explosive, well-sized, can run through contact and he can catch the ball.

Seahawks picks

#5 Jalen Carter (DT)
#20 Dawand Jones (T)
#38 Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE/DT)
#53 Josh Downs (WR)

Final thoughts

This isn’t necessarily the plan I would go for but it feels like the mock ‘fits’ what they might be planning to do. There’s no big reach here. They’re taking good characters aside from a gamble on Jalen Carter. They’re taking two players who excelled at the Senior Bowl. They add disruptive talent to the defensive front. They get a proper WR3 and eventual possible successor to Lockett. They fill a need at right guard.

There is good depth at defensive end to take one on day three to add to your pool of players there. There will be options later on at center and I wonder if they’ll consider signing someone like Garrett Bradbury in free agency. He has the ideal frame for the scheme. At linebacker, I think if you can’t get to Drew Sanders you’re better off waiting until later. That could be an area where they add a veteran player too.

The area not addressed is quarterback and the fact is if you don’t go early at the position, your options are extremely limited.

That said — I would keep an eye on Hendon Hooker. I think he’s a very scheme-dependant player who had a lot of wide open throws in 2022 and he might struggle outside of the brilliant Josh Heupel system. However, it was interesting that Jim Nagy said they don’t typically allow injured or non-participating players to attend the Senior Bowl just to be around teams and be part of it. According to Nagy, they made an exception for Hooker after he requested the opportunity.

That perhaps speaks to how teams are viewing him. Now — his ACL injury and age (25 already) work against him. He won’t play as a rookie and that will temper his stock in a big way. For that reason, he might last deep into round three or four.

The Seahawks might take a chance on him with a stash. He has 10 1/2 inch hands which, as we know, will appeal to John Schneider. If Geno Smith and/or Drew Lock re-signs, they can redshirt him. Just throwing it out there.

Let me know your thoughts in the comments section…

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The defensive linemen shone during the week but in the game it was a different story. There was minimal impact from the likes of Keeanu Benton and co. Instead, the O-liners blocked well and made an impression.

I really like Ole Miss’ Nick Broeker as a zone blocking guard. He has tackle experience so fits the bill for the Rams’/Seahawks’ blocking scheme. He had a so-so week of practise but in the game he stood out as one of the top performers.

Broeker combined brilliantly with Nick Saldiveri — who kicked inside to center. On their first snap together they teamed up to double-team Benton. They consistently worked together to shut down pressures, pass-off blocks and made for an excellent interior duo.

Broeker’s second snap showed off why I like him so much. He moved up to the second level, identified a linebacker to block and absolutely hammered him —- springing a huge running lane for Chris Rodriguez to break off a big gain.

On his third snap he had a 1v1 win against Benton, again creating a running lane for the back to squirt through. Before half-time the NFL Network replayed a Karl Brooks sack conceded on the left side of the line. On the right, Nick Broeker easily handled Benton initially then passed off to seal a stunting K.J. Henry. He also had a good block on Jerrod Clark on the drive.

On tape I was really impressed with Broeker and there’s something to work with here. He showed he can handle power in this game and his movement and agility skills were well highlighted at Ole Miss. He only has 32 1/4 inch arms and that might be an issue for the Seahawks. Nevertheless, I think he’s someone who can provide mid-round value as an interior lineman and I’m eager to see how he tests (and whether he can find another inch of arm length at the combine).

Cody Mauch lined up at guard and right tackle during the game but he also took some snaps at center and looked terrific. He pulled and blocked Cameron Young on a drive before half-time. He was in control and looked so comfortable at center. The smaller stature works for him there and allows Mauch to be his aggressive best. He also leverages well and was able to seamlessly switch from snapping to blocking. This looks like his position and frankly, on the back of what he showed here, he might have a serious future at center.

McClendon Curtis had a really nice play early in the game at right guard to open a running lane for Evan Hull. He also had a dominant block on the goal-line for the first touchdown of the game before half-time. Curtis had a good week and has excellent size and length (6-5, 331lbs, 35 inch arms). He’s not a tackle though. They put him at right tackle in the second half and he gave up an easy sack to Ali Gaye. Keep him inside. He has tackle size but he excels at guard.

Watching Darnell Wright get on the move on a crack toss and locate second level blocks had me dreaming about taking him as a zone guard. I think he has the mobility to do it. It’s going to be interesting to see what Seattle does at right guard. The Rams’ scheme uses lighter converted tackles at guard and they’ve had a lot of success over the years. Yet Seattle had Damien Lewis (327lbs) at left guard and Phil Haynes (322lbs) or Gabe Jackson (335lbs) at right guard. Are they just holdovers from the Mike Solari years? Will they adjust and transition? Or do they still want size at guard?

Wright is 6-5 and 342lbs.

It’d almost be a bit of a waste to kick him inside, given how well he plays the edge. But if the Seahawks are seriously on a ‘BPA’ journey after last year’s draft, then Wright would be in the mix at #20.

On a more negative note, this happened to O’Cyrus Torrence (you need to look at the second video):

We can work with this pic.twitter.com/4k74gyZDkL

— Goodberry (@JoeGoodberry) February 4, 2023

That’s Ivan Pace, all 230lbs of him, dumping O’Cyrus Torrence on his backside.

The funniest thing is Torrence actually tackles the ball carrier too as he goes over.

It’s a nice moment for Pace I suppose. I think it’s more a case of this being another example of Torrence being a bit overrated. All this talk of round one has always felt a bit off for a standard guard who played all of the 2022 season with a sloppy frame. I wouldn’t expect him to test well. If that proves true, he’ll be like a lot of guards who enter the league. I’ve been grading him in the middle rounds for some time.

In the 1v1’s he got pushed backwards too often. Now there’s this play. How’s he going to handle the monsters in the NFL? He’s big and can be tricky to get around but I’m not convinced he can anchor and drive off blocks to warrant the major hype he’s getting.

On the first play of the game, Aubry Miller absolutely hammered the ball carrier after a long run. He has played with fire and intensity all week. He set the edge well against the run a couple of times. As a day three pick with at least some special teams value, he caught my eye.

Stanford receiver Michael Wilson had a good week of practise and that continued today. He gets open very easily and he’s sudden and fluid with his routes. He does fight the ball as a catcher sometimes but he’s often open so it’s not as much of a problem as it could be. He pivots to change direction wonderfully. He had a really nice grab on a wayward Jake Haener pass in the fourth quarterback — extending his arms to catch away from his body at full stretch. He scored a touchdown on a duck thrown by Haener. Wilson was the only person who adjusted to the ball which was lobbed up for grabs towards the end zone.

Evan Hull the running back from Northwestern showed good patience on a long run to start the game, then ran through contact for a second big gain on the same drive. He’s well sized, powerful and showed good awareness to make the most of a couple of runs. He has the size Seattle likes.

Fellow running back Chris Rodriguez made a great play on 3rd and 2 —- catching a ball under pressure over the middle then bouncing off a tackle to get extra yardage. He’s a physical player who consistently drives through contact.

Byron Young (Tennessee) forced a bad throw by Malik Cunningham with a good pressure on Blake Freeland, leading to a pick-six for Anthony Johnson. Freeland also gave up a sack later on to Isaiah Land.

Illinois safety Sydney Brown plays downfield nicely. He’s quick and flies to the ball. He made a great TFL late in the game, reading the play and attacking the ball-carrier.

Some key performers from the week seemingly didn’t play in the game including Keion White, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tank Dell and Will McDonald. I didn’t see Rashee Rice or Isaiah Foskey either. In particular, I think Foskey needed to play and perform after a disappointing week.

If you missed my Senior Bowl recap video earlier, check it out here:

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I wanted to start with some overall thoughts on the D-line vs O-line 1v1’s I’ve watched this week…

— There were some good performances but I haven’t seen a single tackle who came close to matching Abraham Lucas for control, consistency and athleticism a year ago and nobody looked like a complete edge rusher like Boye Mafe. That’s not me speaking with Seahawks-tinted specs on — my notes from a year ago are archived if you want to check them out.

— The two edge rushers who impressed the most were K.J. Henry (fluid, athletic, more refined than others) and Will McDonald (immense upside). There have been top drawer flashes from McDonald. In a team drill he ran around Wanya Morris at left tackle like he was one of those bags they use for agility drills. If you can get him playing with consistency — he has special qualities. It’s a big ‘if’ though.

— The interior and inside/out rushers had more success. Adetomiwa Adebawore at times has looked special. His combination of long arms and a shorter frame are ideal for leverage and he has so much explosive power and quickness to complement it. He had a team-rep on Thursday that summed it up. Engage the left guard, press him, release because you’re a far superior athlete, explode to the QB. It was easy.

— Watching Keeanu Benton has been a treat at times. Based on what we saw here — and how he tests — he looks like a top-40 pick.

— I wish Nesta Jade Silvera had longer than 32 1/2 inch arms because the way he’s pushed the pocket at defensive tackle and shoved people around at the LOS has been very impressive. Maybe he can find half an inch at the combine.

— Cameron Young has been one of the standouts for me too. With 35-inch arms and a good looking, prototype frame — he was very disruptive in drills and looks like a very useful defensive tackle.

— It’s very clear Keion White has legit athleticism for his size and even Dawand Jones struggled to contain him on day one in the team reps. However, I do think he needs a bit of technical refinement. He has the potential to be a speed-to-power dynamo but he isn’t there yet.

— Steve Avila won a lot of 1v1 reps this week and to me at least looked like the most impressive interior lineman. Although he only played one day of practise, it’s hard to look beyond Dawand Jones as the top performing tackle although Jaelyn Duncan also played well even if his future is at guard. Darnell Wright, unsurprisingly, also had a very good week.

On to Thursday’s tape…

Keeanu Benton had a good win against Jarrett Patterson — faking a move to the left side then almost jump-cutting and ripping back to the right. Patterson had no answer as Benton broke into the backfield. What a dynamic, athletic, intelligent player Benton is with the perfect defensive tackle frame.

Adetomiwa Adebawore had an easy win against Cody Mauch at left tackle where he just hesitated to the outside, exploded back inside and he was too powerful and strong for Mauch. When the two met again, ‘Ade Ade’ worked to the outside and when it became obvious he wasn’t going to beat Mauch to the edge, he spun back inside to release and claim the win. The O-liners look intimidated by his strength and when he gains position he’s got the nouse to rip upwards to prevent counters and then keep the legs churning to finish. He isn’t going to be a full-time starter at 285lbs but as a rotational impact pass-rusher there’s so much to like.

Andre Carter had an easy win against Ryan Hayes with an inside move. When they faced off again he botched a Euro step and was stoned at the POA. It shows off that Carter has the tools but needs refinement. You would draft him to possibly redshirt him.

Nesta Jade Silvera demolished Joey Fisher on a rep — driving into his pads then ripping down to send the right guard to the turf.

Sydney Brown is a safety but the way he’s covered at times in 1v1’s has been impressive. Big bodies can box him out and we saw that on Thursday. Yet his quickness and agility helps him to stick in coverage. Brown and brother Chase (a running back) are both world class athletes with incredible potential. They will make a team or teams very happy. I would consider drafting both due to their extreme potential.

Nick Saldiveri played center in a team scrimmage on Thursday. He teamed up with Nick Broeker at right guard to open up a big hole up the middle for Kenny McIntosh to score a red zone touchdown. The difference in technique was very noticeable. Saldiveri’s block was a bit all over the place but he managed to barge his way through the D-line to create a lane. Broeker, on the other hand, got his hands inside on Byron Young of Alabama and just controlled his man for a really impressive win. I like both Saldiveri and Broeker as value interior options for Seattle in the middle or later rounds.

Steve Avila had a bit of a mismatch against Ali Gaye who kicked inside for a rep. Avila showed great hand placement. He was far too strong and walled off Gaye. Game over. Avila has really helped himself in Mobile and his stock was already high.

Another day, another tweet mis-judging a rep involving O’Cyrus Torrence. This is a win for Byron Young. Again, too many people on Twitter seem to think unless you rip through the block, swim and release or dump someone on their backside, it’s not a win. Look what Young does here. He gets his right arm right into the middle of Torrence’s chest and long-arm’s him into the pocket. He is literally pushing the pocket. This is what a 290lbs defensive lineman is supposed to do when they don’t have Aaron Donald’s quickness. A rep like this, in a game, moves the QB off his spot. Torrence is also grabbing onto his jersey at the right shoulder while constantly fighting to get his right hand into the chest. He’s hanging on.

Everyone in the replies is hailing it as a great rep. Do they realise it isn’t the job of the offensive guard to get pushed 5-6 yards into the backfield?

Now watch Steve Avila against Zacch Pickens. He doesn’t cede more than a yard or two in depth here. Power, strength — a nice little shove to finish. A bouncer throwing you out of the club.

I also came across this rep, praised as a ‘dominating’ win for John Michael Schmitz.

Let’s break down what happens here. Cameron Young — one of the stars of the week as mentioned earlier — doesn’t use his hands well enough initially and leans into the center. Thus, he surrenders pad level and Schmitz gets into his chest. Young then has to re-set and bench presses Schmitz to disengage using his 35 inch arms (this is why length matters). Pause the video at 0:02 seconds. Young has released from the block at that point, Schmitz is over-extended and desperately clinging on. At 0:03 Young is facing directly to the quarterback and Schmitz is facing his own goal-posts. This is a pressure or a hurry every day of the week. How on earth is this a dominating 1v1 rep for the center?

Julius Brents had a decent week and in a 1v1 against Jonathan Mingo he was with the talented receiver step for step on a deep route before breaking up a pass. On the interior, shorter routes he has had issues but anything where he needs to run downfield — Brents handled with ease in Mobile.

Mingo absolutely destroyed Darius Rush on a red zone rep. He delivered a wonderful stutter-step and shifted to the left corner pylon. Game over. Rush had no answer. Mingo moves beautifully for a big man. He also knows how to get open and has a plan.

Rush has had some good moments but also some ugly moments. A real mixed bag from him. On Thursday he had a far better time covering Andrei Iosvias. His backpedal and transition were good and when he turned to the football, he was perfectly placed to make an easy interception.

I’ll watch the game tomorrow and provide some notes before reviewing my horizontal board and producing a new mock draft.

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Apologies — I’m a day behind on these because I need to wait for people to upload practise tape to YouTube. Here are my day two notes…

There was no Dawand Jones at practise on Wednesday (he didn’t practise today either). That’s a shame but his day one performance was good enough to leave a lasting impression.

Keeanu Benton had some more wonderful reps on day two. He’s perfectly sized and is flashing quickness and technique in Mobile to win repeatedly. At Wisconsin he was used as a nose tackle but in Mobile he looks like a complete DT. He had a dominant rep against Jake Andrews. His get-off is great and he used a violent rip/swim to avoid the block and explode into the backfield. He did have one bad rep too against Andrews, where he slipped trying a spin-move and just fell over. Benton was also controlled on one occasion by McClendon Curtis. Overall though he’s showing he thoroughly deserves second round consideration and depending on how he tests, there’s genuine potential here.

YaYa Diaby showed off a great burst in day one and he looked really athletic again on Wednesday. He made Blake Freeland look silly with a stunt to the outside then a dart back inside. Freeland virtually lost his shoes trying to change direction.

Jaelyn Duncan was silky smooth protecting the edge and had a nice win against the talented K.J. Henry, walling off and not allowing him to bend and straighten. Duncan also lost in a fairly basic way to Lonnie Phelps, giving up the outside too easily. However, he also had a controlling, dominant rep against Isaiah Foskey — claimping into his chest and not letting go with ideal hand-placement. He also stoned Andre Carter on a left tackle rep, getting lower than the defender and again shooting his hands inside to control. It was an impressive showing from Duncan. He’s a great athlete who is expected to test very well but his lack of ideal length could lead to a move inside. A reminder that Seattle’s scheme — brought in from LA — has often used converted tackles at guard.

On Foskey — he is sadly one of the more overrated players in this class and he also had a rough time against Ryan Hayes on Wednesday, being sent to the turf too easily when rushing from the right hand side. He’s not shown much pop in his 1v1 reps so far — appearing fairly average.

Steve Avila had one of the reps of the week against D.J. Dale. He lined up at center and locked on to Dale off the snap, fought to get his hands inside and just completely controlled the block. He straightened his back, won the leverage battle and just dominated.

I’m as a big fan of Darnell Wright as anyone but Will McDonald got the better of him on day two. Remember, Wright is the man who shut-down Alabama’s Will Anderson during the season. McDonald’s technique leaves a lot to be desired but when you have freakish quickness, agility and length you can still find ways to win. He got to the edge quicker than Wright on the first rep. McDonald’s hand-placement is non existent but because he’s so quick, Wright couldn’t get across to wall him off. They gave them a second rep against each other straight away and scarred from the previous 1v1, Wright compensated outside. McDonald sensed it, to his credit, and beat him with a nice spin move to penetrate inside. It might take McDonald a year or two to realise his potential — and he may never truly realise it. If he does though, watch out. The physical tools are there to be amazing. He’s just never been able to put it all together.

Andre Carter — great physical profile. Bags of developmental potential. At the moment though, he’s not strong enough and he’s basically a project for later on.

Twitter was interesting yesterday. People are awarding wins in the 1v1’s that are actually losses. A case in point — I couldn’t help but challenge this tweet praising O’Cyrus Torrence. It led to a long, frustrating back and forth as people desperately tried to claim this constitutes a win for a right guard:

As we all know, any time your guard gets shoved six yards into the backfield, right into the spot the quarterback would be standing — that’s a clear win. I don’t know about you but I can’t get enough of those moments where the rest of the line have to turn around fully to see what’s happened to the right guard.

I can remember Pete Carroll talking many years ago about the need to push the pocket as a D-line. Clean wins are nice but difficult to achieve in the interior. Driving your blocker back and moving the QB is integral. There are seemingly people online who think being pushed this deep into the backfield is a win — just because the defender doesn’t disengage and release. It highlights how challenging it is to trust analysis on the internet.

On another rep, people were hailing Torrence for blocking Byron Young of Alabama because Young ended up on the deck as he slipped over at the end of the 1v1. The thing is, they engage at the 10-yard line and Young slips at the five-yard line. At Alabama Young was adept at disrupting plays not with clean wins but by shoving blockers backwards or playing his gap well. I don’t want a guard ceding ground five or six yards into the backfield. I want him to square-up, anchor and stall the pass-rusher as best he can.

It’s been the same with Cody Mauch for most of the week too. He’s looked quite aggressive and fun attacking people in the running game but in his pass-pro reps he gives up too much ground. Watch his second rep in this video against Karl Brooks.

That isn’t a win for Mauch. He gives up too much ground and then Brooks works back to the QB. That’s a pressure or a sack. Yet it’s contained within a tweet describing a ‘dominating’ performance.

I had Tyjae Spears graded in round two in my latest horizontal board. He is so electric and despite being lighter than ideal (205lbs) he has such a proportionate frame with a thick, explosive lower body. He had a big run during team drills — a well blocked play it has to be said — where he took advantage to explode through the whole and then make the safety Chris Smith of Georgia miss at the second level. He’s a dynamite player and someone who could be a nice complement to Ken Walker. That said, he was demolished by Aubrey Miller on a pass-pro rep (before battling back on the subsequent rep).

This isn’t an easy week to judge tight ends but Luke Musgrave look so smooth running routes and catching the ball. He’s a total natural, a great athlete and he’s got so much next level potential.

For all the talk of dominant performances by Keion White and Adetomiwa Adebawore, I saw White well handled by Ryan Hayes on one rep and then ‘Ade Ade’ was easily controlled by Jarrett Patterson. On their next 1v1, Adebawore got revenge by pulling Patterson’s jersey and releasing to get a clean break and burst into the backfield. After that, Adebawore used a euro step from the interior and then a swipe of the hands to dodge a block by McClendon Curtis. He had the skill to then capitalise and bend to the QB.

White lined up inside on Wednesday and had a good battle with Cody Mauch. People on Twitter were saying Mauch won but I see it differently. White has him five yards into the backfield off the snap and just bursts upfield. Mauch tries to hang in there and he stops White releasing to get the sack but by that point he’s right in the QB’s grill. It’s a win for the defense.

Mauch had a really ugly rep too against Nesta Jade Silvera where he was just driven backwards. Fun player he might be but as noted earlier, Mauch looks like he lacks the core strength to drop the anchor.

White couldn’t disengage from McClendon Curtis on a different occasion. I’m impressed with White’s quickness and athleticism but I want to see better use of speed-to-power and a more cultured game-plan to disengage. He just ploughed into Curtis on this rep and didn’t have any thought on how to release.

Ali Gaye never delivered on his potential at LSU but he’s a well sized edge who flashed a couple of times on Wednesday. He easily beat Warren McClendon with a speed rush to the edge on one play (he was barely touched) and then at the other side of the line, he showed power and leverage in run-combat. Speaking of his inconsistency though — in the rematch against McClendon he just ran into the right tackle and was shut down.

Tennessee’s Byron Young isn’t the biggest but he really gave his all in the run-reps — leveraging well and extending his arms and driving through contact. He also drove Wanya Morris right into the backfield on two pass-rush reps.

I’ve been really impressed with Cameron Young. In a run-rep he easily handled Nick Broeker (who I like and hasn’t had a brilliant first two days). He also shoved back Nick Salidveri (who I also like). On a pass-rush 1v1 against Saldiveri he again drove him backwards and eventually Saldiveri slipped (as a lot of players have done this week). Later on he dominated Emil Ekiyor. I will be looking at Young’s tape next week and I’m very intrigued by what he has shown in Mobile.

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Before I get into the Senior Bowl notes, a little cheat-code for you all. If you click on Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 board and then select any of the names of the players, it’ll take you to Lance Zierlein’s extensive scouting report for that individual. I’m going to run through some of the highlights after my Senior Bowl notes below.

Day one in Mobile

I found the 1v1 OL vs DL sessions on YouTube (plus other position drills) from the first day of the Senior Bowl. I’ve written my thoughts below.

I will voice a quick complaint though. The NFL advertised full coverage from Mobile on NFL+. So they had a broadcasting crew providing comprehensive coverage all day. However, this wasn’t available on NFL Gamepass (Europe’s version of NFL+) and the NFL Network, which I have access to via Gamepass, was showing re-runs of the AFC & NFC Championship games instead of the Senior Bowl.

Why is it so hard to watch the Senior Bowl?

I graded Ohio State tackle Dawand Jones among the best 20-players in the class on my horizontal board last week and I think he showed why on day one. It’s not unusual to see massive, hulking blockers at the Senior Bowl. However, they’re often a mix of smaller-school and unrefined or simply out of shape. Jones is neither — he carries himself with a rare level of athleticism and his size is truly unique. I’m not sure I’ve seen a player like this before.

It’s not just his insane nearly 37-inch arms. It’s the fact that he’s 375lbs and has minimal bad weight. He is, somehow, proportionate for his size. He even might have room to add a bit more bulk to his lower body.

There’s no doubt for me he is the best Ohio State tackle in this class, ahead of the fairly run-of-the-mill Paris Johnson Jr. For a man his size to get his hands inside, lock-on and control in 1v1’s is incredible. These drills are set up for pass rushers to win. He was a bully out there. He was brutal.

It was surprising to see how low he can get to drive into blocks at 6-8. He will give up some leverage which is expected but he isn’t a massive target begging you to get into his chest and jolt him off balance like a lot of tall tackles. Even when he does surrender leverage initially — he’s just too big and powerful that he simply recovers and fights back. It’s like trying to wrestle a bear when you’re giving up 120lbs in weight.

On one rep he manhandled the defender and just tossed him to the ground like an adult competing against a child.

His kick-slide isn’t orthodox but he gets out of his stance, stays square to the target and can run with the quicker, smaller edge players. You know he can play inside/out with that length too — a huge plus.

Jones had a rep against Isaiah Foskey where he just mirrored him easily, kept his position and when Foskey tried to get inside and win with power, he dragged him to the ground.

He abused Andre Carter, just getting right into his frame and bossing him easily. He had complete control over Carter who had no answer. The rep ended with Jones tossing him aside with disdain.

This is all stuff you see on tape, too. I don’t know why he isn’t talked about more. O-line is a premium area and a need for many teams. You can win a lot of football games with players like Dawand Jones.

Adetomiwa Adebawore showed he’s ideally built to leverage vs the run with his height and length (6-1, 284lbs, 34 inch arms). In a 1v1 rep he had a great long-arm move to control the block. This enabled him to keep his eyes downfield then disengage when the time was right to play the run. He’s only scratching the surface of what he can do and he’s expected to test very well at the combine. He could be a plus rotational lineman who offers real versatility.

Keion White looks very quick as expected. The impressive thing he showed on day one was the ability to get a tackle on skates. Typically this is the calling card of a 250lbs edge. He explodes out of his stance and races to the arc. I would like to see him convert speed-to-power more as the week goes on because tackles are going to be terrified by that initial outside threat. Jaelyn Duncan was able to just ride him out on the first rep — White needs to get involved and dig into that chest. On the second rep the same thing happened. He attacks the edge and takes an elongated arc to the quarterback. Duncan does his job though by tracking him. This is something for White to work on in day two.

Jerrod Clark is the nose tackle some people want Siaki Ika to be. He’s athletic and threatens as a pass rusher with the same level of splash plays we see form Ika. However, Clark’s a better anchor player who can absorb blocks, drive interior linemen backwards and win with power. He’s a former tight end who has gained weight and become a 340lbs force of nature. He has to become more consistent and find a weight he can stick to in order to max out his athleticism. He had a good start at the Senior Bowl, winning numerous reps collapsing the interior. He easily beat Olusegun Oluwatimi the Michigan center with power on his first rep.

Keeanu Benton had a violent swim/rip win in 1v1’s. He hasan ideal defensive tackle frame and looks the part of a NFL lineman. Sometimes you just look at a player and nod approval. Benton is what you look for. On his first 1v1 he absolutely destroyed Asim Richards with speed. In another rep vs Oluwatimi, he drove the center backwards by placing his right hand inside to gain pad-level, then disengaging to fight to the quarterback. Benton also looked really good during agility/change of direction drills running in and out of the bags. I had him in round two on my first horizontal board, then early round three on my second. I immediately bumped him back into round two on this showing. He looks like an every-down player.

Darnell Wright, despite being 340lbs, gets into his kick-slide with ease and shuts down the edge. There were some 1v1 reps where his hand placement was a bit high and it prevented him from locking in and controlling the block on contact but he generally got the job done and played with an aggressive streak. You can’t beat him with speed-to-power because when you get into his frame he’s like a brick wall.

I’d assumed Derick Hall at Auburn had sub-33 inch arms. Having measured with better length I need to re-watch him. In 1v1’s he had a great rep off the edge, shaping to the outside with a little hesitation on contact, then he converted speed-to-power with a long-arm to the chest combined with a swim to release and win inside. He always plays with fire and intensity and testing will be key. Knowing he has a prototype frame to play the edge is a plus point.

Cameron Young from Mississippi State had some good moments. He’s another player who likes the long-arm then release. He easily handled Alabama’s Emil Ekiyor on a center vs nose snap. Young also had a win against Nick Salvideri — he was just too powerful and quick. I need to check out his tape.

K.J. Henry had an easy win vs Blake Freeland. He just hesitated to the outside then dipped inside. It was way too easy.

Karl Brooks has short arms but boy does he throw a pretty swim move. On his first 1v1 rep he easily beat Jake Andrews.

Cornerback Julius Brents was hit and miss on tape but nobody can deny his athletic qualities. He will be a combine star. On day one he excelled on the deep routes and struggled on the shorter coverage match-ups. On the deep routes he mirrored brilliantly and gained position, allowing him to look back for the football. He’s so athletic, quick and his change of direction is on-point — he’s really hard to shake off in a foot-race.

Over the middle he was less successful. Jonathan Mingo got the better of Brents on one rep using his size to muscle-out and create short-area separation. Others were able to win with late separation working in space and although he had a pick later on, he was flagged for too much contact.

Darius Rush had a fantastic win against Mingo — running the route for him and claiming an interception. Rush showed great control and smooth feet, then had the anticipation to put himself in position to make a play. Textbook. Sadly for Rush, he also completely misjudged one rep, bit for some reason on a short-route and was hopelessly beat deep with the receiver jogging downfield uncovered. Then he also took a loss against Nathaniel Dell who easily beat him on a curl-in.

Tyrique Stevenson had a loss against Andrei Iosivas despite being in his hip-pocket on the route. Even so, Iosivas is just such a gliding, silky athlete and he’s slippery. Stevenson had a big battle against Mingo too and despite tight coverage was flagged for a penalty on the rep. Xavier Hutchinson was able to easily shake-off Stevenson on a comeback route late in the session.

Lance Zierlein called John Michael Schmitz one of his day-one winners. I was surprised to see him weigh about 20lbs lighter than his college listing and it made me re-think how I viewed him. I reached out to Lance who shared his scouting report with me.

The fact that Lance sees him as a zone-blocking center is interesting, to go with a positive blurb and a likely top-45 marker. He’s someone we might need to keep a closer eye on. In team drills he had a terrific rep on a screen pass, breaking deep into the second level and driving a defender way off the ball. His ability to lock-on in space was impressive and something you don’t often see on tape. He also had a nice 1v1 win, arching his back to stall an interior rusher with good hand-use to re-set after initially shooting high and wide. Schmitz was also pushed back by D.J. Dale on one rep and he was clinging on to try and contain the Alabama DT.

I really like Nick Saldiveri as a right guard prospect for Seattle. In 1v1’s he showed a great ability to get good initial hand-placement and then keep re-setting and working those hands inside when challenged by a counter. He’s big, strong, physical, athletic and looks the part. You might be able to put a ring around him, depending on how he tests. He ticks a lot of scheme/attitude boxes for the Seahawks. He did have that loss against Cam Young as mentioned earlier, too.

Not many people will overpower Steve Avila but Zacch Pickens had a 1v1 win by barging his way into the backfield. He showed great hand placement and a good push. It was a nice win for Pickens who is also very athletic and well sized — so it’s good that he has a bit of bully in him too because Avila is a beast.

O’Cyrus Torrence looks like he’s cut weight (or just looks great in Reese’s colours). He had some nice reps, notably against Byron Young 1v1 — sending him to the turf. Young had a win too — driving into the chest of Torrence then countering with a chop to release. Torrence was also pushed backwards on a couple of occasions. On one bad rep he was driven off the line by Jalen Redmond. He lost another rep to Redmond lined up at left guard. He couldn’t get across to the block, his angles were all wrong and the defender was just too quick. A mixed bag on day one but if Torrence has slimmed down that’s a good sign. He carried too much bad weight at Florida and looked sloppy.

Back to Alabama’s Young — he used brute force to bull rush Nick Broeker in a 1v1 rep. He kept his legs moving and he’s adept at freeing one arm to gain position and then ripping through to penetrate. He was very active and aggressive on day one.

I hadn’t studied Stanford receiver Michael Wilson pre-Senior Bowl but he looked really sharp here with precise routes, suddenness and an ability to drive off his back-foot to get open. I’m intrigued and want to see more. Another receiver, Tank Dell, also looked really sharp — firing downfield with great speed to threaten deep then stopping on a dime to present to the quarterback. He lacks size but he’s dynamic and able to challenge defenders with his change-of-direction ability and stop-start qualities.

Overall my main takeaway was — this is a really good group of trench players in Mobile and the Seahawks are going to be able to add some talent to their offensive and defensive fronts. They had a bit of a ‘meat and potatoes’ draft a year ago and it worked for them. They should aim to do the same again — just with the possibility of a quarterback pick thrown into the mix too.

Lance Zierlein grades and notes

I look forward every year to reading Lance’s reports. He’s one of the people who truly puts in the work and whether I agree or not on an individual player — I respect the heck out of what he does. In a world of cheap and cheerful draft coverage, designed to offer minimal detail and appeal to casual observers who want to dip in and out — Lance is an analyst for the draft geeks out there.

At the moment we only have reports for players listed on Daniel Jeremiah’s board — so there might be some missing gems. However, here’s a ranking list of grades and some of the notes contained within Lance’s reports:

Jalen Carter — 7.11
Will Anderson — 7.02
Bryce Young — 6.82
Bijan Robinson — 6.80
Tyree Wilson — 6.77
Drew Sanders — 6.74
Peter Skoronski — 6.73
Brian Branch — 6.72
Luke Musgrave — 6.70
Christian Gonzalez — 6.70
Jalin Hyatt — 6.50
Myles Murphy — 6.50
Michael Mayer — 6.48
C.J. Stroud — 6.46
Dalton Kincaid — 6.45
Quentin Johnston — 6.44
Broderick Jones — 6.44
Keion White — 6.43
Joey Porter Jr — 6.43
Will McDonald — 6.41
Devon Witherspoon — 6.40
John Michael Schmitz — 6.39
Kelee Ringo — 6.39
Paris Johnson Jr — 6.39
Tuli Tuipulotu — 6.38
Darnell Washington — 6.38
Lukas Van Ness — 6.38
Jahmyr Gibbs — 6.37
Jordan Addison — 6.36
Emmanuel Forbes — 6.36
Zay Flowers — 6.35
B.J. Ojulari — 6.35
Bryan Bresee — 6.35
Darnell Wright — 6.34
Mazi Smith — 6.34
Derick Hall — 6.34
Felix Anudike-Uzomah — 6.34
Anthony Richardson — 6.33
O’Cyrus Torrence — 6.32
Joe Tippmann — 6.30
Deonte Banks — 6.30
Will Levis — 6.29
Steve Avila — 6.29
Cody Mauch — 6.28
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — 6.25
Nolan Smith — 6.24
Trenton Simpson — 6.24
Tyrique Stevenson — 6.24
Zach Charbonnet — 6.23
Davis Allen — 6.21
Sam LaPorta — 6.12

For comparison, here’s Lance’s top-20 from a year ago:

Kyle Hamilton — 6.81
Aidan Hutchinson — 6.80
Evan Neal — 6.76
Ikem Ekwonu — 6.73
Sauce Gardner — 6.72
Kayvon Thibodeaux — 6.72
Tyler Linderbaum — 6.70
Trent McDuffie — 6.70
Jordan Davis — 6.50
Derek Stingley Jr — 6.50
Treylon Burks — 6.50
Garrett Wilson — 6.50
Jermaine Johnson — 6.49
Travon Walker — 6.48
Jameson Williams — 6.48
Kenyon Green — 6.45
Charles Cross — 6.44
Chris Olave — 6.43
Malik Willis — 6.41
Matt Corral — 6.40

Here were Seattle’s picks last year:

Charles Cross — 6.44
Boye Mafe — 6.35
Ken Walker — 6.35
Abraham Lucas — 6.15
Coby Bryant — 6.20
Tariq Woolen — 6.00
Tyreek Smith — 6.00
Bo Melton — 5.92
Dareke Young — 5.68

Here’s Lance on Jalen Carter:

“When assessing a player’s draft grade, we take into consideration areas like traits, toughness, explosiveness, skill level, potential for growth and positional projections. Across the board, Carter checks out in a big way. However, his maturity will need to be vetted by each team as they make their evaluations.”

Also…

“Scouts say maturity has been an issue for him at times.”

This is the second time, after Todd McShay voiced some concerns, that maturity and character have been raised with Carter. Along with the work we’ve done to track concerns over his conditioning (stated as a priority for improvement last April and not acted upon) — there’s some important context being provided here that the mainstream is otherwise ignoring.

Nevertheless — a 7.11 grade speaks to Carter’s talent and why he will be a challenging assessment for teams. He’s clearly an excellent player but will he deliver on his obvious potential?

On Tyree Wilson:

“His length and lateral quickness are ingredients for chaos as a back-side run game disruptor. He’s capable of ranging and tackling from distance if the run flows wide. On the flip side, he’s not very instinctive as a run defender and his play demeanor could stand to be a little thornier when attacking blocks. Wilson has the physical tools to create pocket push as a power rusher early on but the hand usage and rush plan will need tutoring for him to become a well-rounded, two-way rusher. He might not set the world on fire in Year 1, but the talent and vaulted ceiling will be easy to see soon enough.”

A personnel executive for an AFC team offered this quote on Keion White:

“You have to see him in person to get a feel for how he moves around for how big he is. Really athletic with a high floor. He’ll be a riser.”

Lance on C.J. Stroud:

“NFL teams will have to balance what they saw on tape from Stroud during the 2022 regular season against his great College Football Playoff semifinal performance, when he shined versus Georgia’s impressive collection pro prospects. If he did it once he can do it again, and grading the flashes for Stroud might make the most sense.”

An executive for a NFC team provided this quote on Will Levis:

“People are being too hard on him from what I’m seeing in the media. He was hurt for most of the year and gutted it out. He’s a good teammate, he’s big and he has arm talent. I like the pro potential a lot. He just needs to get healthy and keep working at it.”

I will keep saying — I think the mainstream media, including Lance, are really underrating these quarterbacks. They have flaws, yes, but the potential is extreme.

Lance on Anthony Richardson:

“Richardson’s potential to strike with the deep ball, attack the secondary from sideline to sideline and gash teams with his legs creates greater leeway in his projection as a developmental prospect. Ultimately, he will succeed or fail based on his ability to play with better post-snap recognition and deliver the football with consistency.”

Lance on Will McDonald:

“McDonald’s hard-nosed demeanor and pass-rush talent are winning play traits that will help him become a successful 3-4 outside linebacker and sack artist.”

And here’s a personnel executive for a NFC team also discussing McDonald:

“He’s going to put up big workout numbers and be one of the buzziest prospects headed into April once the media catches up on him.”

Lance is extremely high on Drew Sanders:

“He’s a tough out for interior protection as a blitzing linebacker and has natural rush talent to hunt quarterbacks off the edge. Sanders’ athletic gifts, versatility and toughness could help him become a highly impactful playmaker with Pro Bowl upside.”

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Senior Bowl measurements revealed

It’s worth noting that the measurements sometimes change at the combine (different methods of measuring, I guess) but there were some notable (and positive) numbers today.

The Seahawks, like most teams, place a lot of emphasis on length on the defensive line. They have typically avoided anyone with sub-33 inch arms.

Highly underrated Byron Young of Alabama — a possible second round pick nobody talks about — measured at 6-3, 297lbs and has 34 inch arms. Get him in Seattle. His ability to disrupt isn’t talked about enough and with his size and length, he’d be an ideal addition for the defensive front.

Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina) has the kind of profile they need. He’s 6-3 and 300lbs with 34 1/8 inch arms. He’s a disruptive force with plus athleticism and with that kind of length he will be coveted as a day two pick. I did have some concerns about his conditioning, watching tape. He tires. Not at a Jalen Carter level, but still.

Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech) measured nicely at 6-5 and 280lbs with 33 5/8 inch arms. That’ll do for me. We’ve been talking about him for some time — his relentless nature, motor, plus athleticism and consistent disruption. He would be an excellent option for the Seahawks so hopefully he shows that in Mobile.

Adetomiwa Adebawore (DT, Northwestern) was one of the players I asked Jim Nagy about. He is a tremendous 6-1 and 284lbs with 34 inch arms. He will win many leverage battles with that combo of arm length and squatty height. ‘Ade Ade’ will also test very well at the combine. He’s another to watch for.

Wisconsin’s talented Keeanu Benton is 6-3, 312lbs and has 33 6/8 inch arms. There are lots of nice interior defensive line options in this class as you can see.

I like Jerrod Clark’s (DT, Coastal Carolina) splash plays and he’s a good athlete at 6-3, 343lbs with 33 7/8 inch arms.

Will McDonald is often talked-up as a potential first rounder based purely on upside (his tape wasn’t good in 2022). Today he measured at 6-3, 241lbs with incredible 35-inch arms. That’s why he’s so highly thought of.

Isaiah McGuire (DE, Missouri) is a big, powerful pass-rusher who can slip blocks and make an impact. At 6-4, 271lbs and with 33 3/8 inch arms — keep an eye on him this week. I like him as a round 3/4 type, depending on testing results.

Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey (6-5, 262lbs, 33 6/8 arms) looks the part — those are really good numbers for him. The same can be said of Derrick Hall at Auburn (6-3, 252lbs, 34 3/8 arms) and Andre Carter (6-6, 252lbs, 34 arms).

Nick Hampton at Appalachian State is a bit lighter (6-2, 236lbs) but he can rush the passer and has 33 5/8 inch arms.

It wasn’t such good news for TCU’s Dylan Horton (6-4, 265lbs, 32 6/8 arms) or K.J. Henry (6-4, 247lbs, 32 6/8 arms) who lack ideal length.

A number of college tackles measured in a way that they are more likely to find a home at guard. That’s not bad news for the Seahawks. They have young bookend tackles to continue developing already. Seattle’s scheme, which mirrors the Rams’ system, typically uses converted tackles at guard and prefers the extra mobility that comes with a player of that description.

Syracuse’s Matt Bergeron (6-4, 323lbs, 33 5/8 arms) and Maryland’s Jaelyn Duncan (6-5, 298lbs, 33 4/8 arms) are both very athletic and talented but could end up kicking inside, providing day-two value. Alabama’s Tyler Steen (6-5, 325lbs, 33 arms) has long been destined to kick inside.

Old Dominion’s Nick Saldiveri could be a real option for Seattle as a player with tackle experience. He is 6-6, 311lbs with 33 3/8 inch arms. I really liked his tape.

At tackle, Dawand Jones is already one of the big winners of the week. His 6-8, 375lbs frame is somehow in proportion. He doesn’t have a sloppy frame. He’s ‘the Mountain’ from Game of Thrones. He also has 11 3/8 inch hands and an insane 89 4/8 inch wing span — with 36 5/8 inch arms. I’ve been banging the drum for him for weeks now as a top prospect who should go in round one and teams are going to love his size.

Michigan center Olusegun Olumatimi had a very good measuring result — he’s 6-2, 308lbs with 33 inch arms. All are ideal.

Tennessee’s brilliant tackle Darnell Wright measured at 6-5, 342lbs and has 34 1/8 inch arms. He should be a first round pick.

Wayna Morris at Oklahoma also did his stock the power of good with a 6-5, 317lbs frame and 35 3/8 inch arms and an 85 6/8 inch wing span.

I expected Ole Miss guard Nick Broeker to have sub-33 inch arms (32 2/8) but I really like him as a blocker and hope he gets some time at center in Mobile. He used to play tackle so I hope, despite his lack of length, he gets a look in Seattle. He’s ideally suited to their scheme.

Cody Mauch (T, North Dakota State) will need to kick inside at 6-5, 305lbs and with 32 1/8 inch arms. I hope he too gets some center reps because he plays like fire personified.

John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota) is smaller than expected (6-3, 306lbs) with short arms (32 6/8 inches). In a funny way, it almost puts him back on the radar. He looks bigger on tape. Seattle is going for leverage at center these days in their zone scheme so being smaller isn’t an issue.

Pure guard O’Cyrus Torrence is 6-5, 337lbs and has 33 7/8 inch arms. Steve Avila is 6-3, 332lbs and has 32 5/8 inch arms (not ideal).

At running back, Seattle likes size (approx +210lbs, ideally 225lbs). Kenny McIntosh at Georgia (5-11, 210lbs), Chase Brown (5-9, 215lbs), Roschon Johnson (6-0, 225lbs) and Chris Rodriguez (5-10, 224lbs) fit the bill. Tyjae Spears (5-9, 204lbs) is below the size threshold but he is just too good to ignore.

By now we all know about Seattle’s preference for length at cornerback. That changed and adapted over the last few years and a sub-32 inch arm length won’t count anyone out any more. It’s still an obvious preference though.

Stanford’s talented Kyu Blu Kelly only has 31 6/8 inch arms. The very intriguing Julius Brents of Kansas State, though, measured 6-3, 202lbs and with 33 6/8 inch arms. He will have an explosive combine performance too and could be a nice development project.

A full list of measurements can be found here.

This is a really good looking Senior Bowl group. The 1v1’s in the trenches will be box-office. Footage isn’t readily available and I’m reliant on people posting it on YouTube. I will provide analysis as soon as I can. Fingers crossed those attending come up with the goods.

Shrine game thoughts

The player who stood out the most to me was Penn State center Juice Scruggs. He’s 6-2 and 308lbs with 33 3/8 inch arms. He consistently anchored when blocking and when we was asked to move around, he kept his feet moving and retained balance.

Scruggs easily gets low to win with leverage and adjusts and recovers against spin counters. His hand placement is generally good and he can mirror. He looks athletic and a very capable scheme fit in Seattle.

Keondre Coburn pushed him back on day three but even then he did enough to hang in there and limit the damage.

Scruggs really impressed me and is on my radar moving forward as a day three center option. I will be aiming to watch more tape on him over the next fortnight.

Brenton Cox Jr is a bit of an enigma given he was kicked off the Florida team for arguing with coaches all the time. That was after initially being suspended by Georgia. His stock, as a consequence, might be down the toilet already.

However, he was easily the best athlete in 1v1’s in Las Vegas. He easily beat opponents off the edge and was just too quick. He flew off the edge and was the superior athlete competing. He showed off a good straight arm to keep his frame clean, complementing his quickness. It was easy for him, perhaps speaking to the level of opponent he was facing. He’s 6-3, 254lbs and has 33 2/8 inch arms.

Washington O-liner Henry Bainivalu also stood out. He anchored well, showed good feet to stay balanced and there is something to work with here. He’s 6-5, 312lbs and has 34 2/8 inch arms with big 10 2/8 inch hands. Team mate Jaxson Kirkland also performed well at left guard. He was strong and active at the POA. He did get whipped by a swim move on his third rep of the first day and wasn’t quick enough to respond. Yet at 6-6, 322lbs and with 33 2/8 inch arms he had a good showing.

Ohio State defensive tackle Taron Vincent flashed power and he easily beat Banivalu on one rep with an athletic move. He pushed the pocket and looked the part. However, he has short 31 3/8 inch arms.

Dante Stills is another who looked good but also lacks length (32 1/8 inch arms). However, Arkansas centre Ricky Stromberg has a torrid time and really struggled.

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As Seahawks fans prepare to watch the NFC and AFC Championship games today, many will be debating what is required to reach the level of the final four.

Quite a lot of people have already decided it’s to copy the 49ers. I’m not sure it’s been established just how difficult that’ll be.

San Francisco’s defensive build began in earnest back in 2014 when they selected Jimmie Ward, still with the team, in the first round. They then used their first round pick in 2015 on Arik Armstead and their top pick in 2016 on DeForest Buckner.

They used two more first round picks in 2017 on Solomon Thomas and Rebuen Foster. In 2019 they used the #2 pick on Nick Bosa. Then, after trading Buckner to Indianapolis, they used the #14 pick they received in the deal to replace him with Javon Kinlaw.

From 2014 to 2022 they also spent numerous second and third round picks on their defense:

2014 — Chris Borland (R3)
2015 — Jaquiski Tartt (R2), Eli Harold (R3)
2016 — Will Redmond (R3)
2017 — Ahkello Witherspoon (R3)
2018 — Fred Warner (R3), Tarvarius Moore (R3)
2021 — Ambry Thomas (R3)
2022 — Drake Jackson (R2)

Over a nine draft span, they used seven first round picks and nine day-two picks on their defense. They had whiffs and hits but that’s a massive outlay.

I would argue that even with the obviously inspired decision to see the talent in someone like Fred Warner, a cornerstone player, they were also fortunate enough to be in position to draft Nick Bosa — one of the surest of things to enter the league in recent history.

On top of this, the 49ers also invested considerably in their offense — hitting and missing on a variety of players.

They used six first round picks on the following: Joshua Garnett, Mike McGlinchey, Brandon Aiyuk and Trey Lance.

Then there’s this collection of day-two picks:

2014 — Carlos Hyde (R2), Marcus Martin (R3), Brandon Thomas (OL)
2017 — C.J. Beathard (R3)
2018 — Dante Pettis (R2)
2019 — Deebo Samuel (R2), Jalen Hurd (R3)
2021 — Aaron Banks (R2), Trey Sermon (R3)
2022 — Tyrion Davis-Price (R3), Danny Gray (R3)

There’s a real mix of disappointing and ‘I can’t even remember who that is’ — with Deebo Samuel shining through as a genuine elite talent.

They hit on George Kittle in round five — the offensive equivalent of Seattle drafting Richard Sherman. It’s not often you find a generational player at his position on day three but the 49ers had the foresight to bring Kittle in.

Even then — they had to hit on two big veteran trades, while also paying big money to Trent Williams and Christian McCaffrey.

The other thing to consider with San Francisco is the coaching of Kyle Shanahan. So far he might not have led the 49ers to the promised land of a Super Bowl title. However, what he has achieved in the game is still fairly remarkable.

Shanahan led Matt Ryan to become MVP in 2016, with the Falcons reaching a Super Bowl they should’ve won. Once he departed, Ryan and the Falcons collapsed.

In San Francisco he’s taken the Niners to a Super Bowl they should’ve won, a NFC Championship they should’ve won and now another NFC Championship.

This year he led the team to a 12-0 run despite losing not only his first choice quarterback but also the backup. He is thriving and succeeding, his offensive system not missing a beat, while starting Mr. Irrelevant at quarterback — a seventh round rookie afterthought.

Does any of this feel remotely plausible to try and copy?

It’s improbable. It’s fanciful.

You’re looking at taking numerous draft shots over a near 10-year period. You’ll need to pick in the top-15 five times and you might need to think about trading two additional first round picks to have another go in the top-five.

You will need to hit on star players not only in round one — but also in the middle and later rounds. You have to hit in the veteran trade market.

You will also need one of the best coaches in the league who can create offensive production however he wants — even if you give him the most desperate situation at QB.

It sometimes feels like Seahawks fans believe spending #5 and #20 will close the gap between the two NFC West rivals. The reality is, it’ll take years to mimic the 49ers. Even then, you might need a Head Coach or a coordinator who can scheme around setbacks in a way none of Seattle’s staff has shown to be capable of so far.

I’d argue trying to copy San Francisco is the last thing the Seahawks should be considering. Two of the other teams left in the final four are much better role models if you want to return to relevancy as soon as possible.

Nick Sirianni in Philadelphia and Zac Taylor in Cincinnati were effectively ‘memes’ when they started out. Sirianni embarrassed himself in his introductory press conference, appearing to be a nervous wreck. Taylor was seen as an out-of-his-depth Sean McVay protégé — only in the job because he’d spent two years with the Rams. Sirianni had an indifferent debut season. Taylor was in danger of being a one-and-done and after two years had a 6-25-1 record.

There was little faith in either coach, yet here we are. Both teams were built sufficiently and both have ended up thriving.

It’s not exactly that difficult to imagine Seattle’s staff experiencing a similar rise. You don’t need a genius offensive mind like Shanahan to make a turn.

The Eagles and Bengals both finished 4-11-1 in 2020. They could play each other in the Super Bowl in a fortnight.

They’ve done it by padding out their roster with talent and benefitting from a rookie contract at quarterback.

The Bengals’ top earners in 2022 include two big free agent additions on the defensive line — Trey Hendrickson ($14.5m) and D.J. Reader ($13.6m). They were able to keep safety Jessie Bates on the franchise tag ($12.9m) and paired him with another free agent signing in Vonn Bell ($7.5m). They gave contract extensions and increased pay to Sam Hubbard, Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd. They paid B.J. Hill a $30m, three-year contract after a successful trade from the Giants.

After watching Joe Burrow succeed despite getting hammered behind a porous offensive line in 2021, they splashed out on better protection. They added Alex Cappa (four-years, $35m), Ted Karras (three-years, $18m) and La’el Collins (three-years, $21m).

None of their success is possible, of course, without hitting on the quarterback. Burrow is flirting with becoming the player of his generation, potentially usurping even Patrick Mahomes. It also helps that they were able to add his college team-mate Ja’Marr Chase and both players immediately turned into stars.

I don’t think, however, you need a player of Burrow’s obscene quality to copy Cincinnati. The Eagles are evidence of that. Jalen Hurts is good but he’s not close to Burrow’s level. We’ll come on to Philly in a moment.

The key thing is though — the Bengals have added young, cheap talent at quarterback and have gone from league laughing stock to legit contender in no time at all because of their ability to surround Burrow with quality players, most of which are experienced and proven. The idea of the Bengals in the Super Bowl 18 months ago was ridiculous. Now, nobody will be surprised if they win a Championship or two over the coming years.

The Seahawks already have some pieces — including a talented running back, two excellent receivers and two promising young offensive tackles. If they were to also feel the benefit of cheap talent at quarterback, it’s not unrealistic to think they could also accelerate through a rebuild to become a very good team very quickly, just like Cincinnati.

The quarterback they select would still have to be a good player. Yet the pathway to glory is quicker if you try to emulate the Bengals. It’s also arguably far more realistic than trying to copy what the Niners have done dating back to 2014.

The Eagles are an even better example because they obviously don’t have Burrow but they’ve been able to use Hurts’ contract to great effect. The highest paid player on their roster this season is free agent acquisition Javon Hargrave ($17.8m). They traded for Darius Slay and A.J. Brown and are paying both players handsome contracts. They traded for C. J. Gardner-Johnson and Robert Quinn. They’ve been able to retain stalwarts like Brandon Graham, Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox on decent salaries.

Last off-season they paid Kelce $14m to stay in Philly and Derek Barnett $14m over two years. They signed free agent Haason Reddick on a three-year $45m contract. They added James Bradburry for $10m and gave Kyzir White $5m. Fletcher Cox received $14m.

Howie Roseman loves to make flashy moves, creating depth and talent across a thick roster. He won a Super Bowl doing this in 2017 with Carson Wentz on a rookie contract. Now he’s doing it again and could win another title this season.

The Seahawks were never able to do any of this when they were paying Russell Wilson a league-leading contract. They’d talk about keeping Frank Clark, only to trade him away when Demarcus Lawrence re-set the pass rusher market. They called retaining Jadeveon Clowney a ‘priority’, only to settle for Benson Mayowa and Bruce Irvin instead. They’d waste millions trying to fill out a roster with bodies, rather than being able to land difference makers complementing depth.

With the #5 pick in their back-pocket and a quarterback class which is increasingly becoming underrated thanks to the mainstream media, they’ll have an opportunity to try and copy the Bengals and Eagles. Even if you’re not as high on the 2023 quarterbacks as I am — it’s hardly a stretch to imagine the ‘big four’ being able to play at Hurts’ level. Especially given how athletic they all are.

If those two franchises can go from 4-11-1 to Super Bowl contenders within two years, why can’t the Seahawks go from 7-10 in 2021 to a legit Super Bowl threat by 2024?

It’s not even a question, for me, which plan they should be trying to copy.

Nevertheless, many fans and media are convinced a different tactic is required. Pay Geno Smith, possibly after tagging him to set his market at $32.4m per year, then just use the draft to improve the defense. The defense was the problem in 2022. Just draft some players and everything will be good to go.

Simple, eh?

Not quite, as I’ll explain.

Matt Calkins at the Seattle Times wrote an interesting article over the weekend, raising the following point:

You have to wonder if the boon of Geno’s play last season will turn out to be a burden going forward.

He goes on to explain:

Something happened over the final eight games of the schedule when Seattle went from 6-3 to 9-8. There were losses to the Bucs, Panthers and Raiders — none finished with winning records — that nearly cost the Seahawks what once seemed like an assured playoff spot.

Geno wasn’t terrible over this stretch. He produced passer ratings of at least 103 in four of the final eight games he played. But there were seven interceptions over that stint, too — two of which came on the Seahawks’ first offensive play of the game — and a glaring lack of magic that was customary in the Wilson era.

Some have argued that Smith’s regression was down to the defense collapsing, injuries on offense and a slumping offensive line.

Perhaps — but you can also counter that with the info Hugh Millen highlighted on KJR last week, as noted in an article on this blog:

Smith had the second most (turnover worthy plays) in the NFL, just behind Josh Allen. Millen also pointed out that Allen had far more ‘explosive’ passing plays and a lot more rushing yards to compensate for his erraticism.

Building on the point, he then noted that when looking at the top-10 quarterbacks — on average 80.6% of their turnover worthy plays had resulted in actual turnovers. In comparison, Geno Smith saw only 48% of his turnover worthy plays actually result in an interception.

That’s staggering.

If he’d thrown the 80.6% average like the rest of the QB’s in the top-10, he would’ve had 25 picks. Even if he’d had a still well below average 65% — he would’ve led the league in turnovers.

I’m not even sure if this accounts for stuff like the pick-six against San Francisco in Seattle which was called back for a fortuitous penalty. That play was blown dead, after all. So it could be even worse than these numbers suggest.

Regardless, Smith had incredible luck when it came to turnovers this season.

It’s fair to wonder how Smith’s environment contributed to this. It’s also fair to wonder if we were seing a return to what he’s shown in his career to date. After all, he has been a journeyman quarterback.

It’s indisputable that once Smith is paid a salary at or close to the franchise tag number, it will be a lot harder for Seattle to upgrade their roster in the veteran market. They would need to focus on the draft.

I get the sense a lot of fans are comfortable with that due to Seattle’s incredible stock due to the Wilson trade. However, the 49ers perhaps can provide a cautionary note here.

Let’s go back to their 2017 draft. They had the #3 pick and then traded back into round one to acquire the #31 pick.

The first selection was Solomon Thomas, a defensive lineman from Stanford. After an incredible final season in college where he tallied eight sacks and 15 TFL’s, he clearly established himself as a top player in the draft. He then ran a 4.69 at 273lbs, added a blistering 4.28 short shuttle, a 6.95 three-cone and jumped a 35-inch vertical.

I remember thinking he looked like a fantastic talent. Everyone did. He was considered a top prospect.

Lance Zierlein not only compared him to J.J. Watt — he said it would take a ‘miracle’ for Thomas to last outside of the top five:

it will take a miracle to see him fall beyond five

— Lance Zierlein (@LanceZierlein) January 4, 2017

Others compared him to peak Michael Bennett. PFF hailed his elite run-defending and disruptive playmaking quality.

If Thomas was in the 2023 draft, Seahawks fans would be salivating over him. We’d be talking about him constantly as a player to target.

The 49ers took him at #3.

Then they traded up to #31 to secure hard-nosed, physical linebacker Reuben Foster. Seen as a player with some character flags but ultimately a great football player with bags of potential — he was going to provide toughness and playmaking to the defense.

Again, I remember scouting Foster. If he was in the 2023 class, as with Thomas, we’d all be talking about him as a great option at #20.

Both players were epic busts.

That’s not to say players drafted by Seattle at #5 and #20 face the same fate. It’s entirely possible the Seahawks hit on a defensive lineman at #5, then get a Drew Sanders type at #20 and we end up talking about a legendary double-dip.

The point I’m making is that relying on two rookies to elevate a unit would be wishful thinking. Even the best looking picks, the surest looking players, can fail. Again, look at how many high picks San Francisco had to spend to get the small pool of fantastic players that elevate their existing group? It took years to build.

I would even suggest that if you insert one good rookie defensive lineman and one good rookie linebacker onto Seattle’s roster, it’ll make little immediate difference in 2023. It could take years of further padding and drafting if you intend to rely on the draft alone to build your team. There’s a chance you’ll never elevate in the way Cincinnati and Philadelphia were able to do by adding proven quality.

Really this is no criticism of Smith. People have, not unfairly, argued that he was the least of Seattle’s worries this season. That is most certainly true. Yet the broader objective for this team is to create a pathway to Championship glory, not just ‘do right’ by Geno Smith.

So what is the blueprint to glory?

Is Smith good enough to win you a Super Bowl? Is he less likely to be good enough if he costs you +$30m instead of $3.5m plus incentives?

It might be harsh on Smith but using the Bengals and Eagles as an example, you can easily argue that drafting a quarterback at #5 who is good enough to lead the team (and I believe there are four players in this class capable of doing that) and then surrounding them with talent thanks to the salary cap advantage is a proven way to go from also-rans to contender as quickly as possible.

The alternative — paying Smith a handsome contract and relying on the draft — looks a lot like an increasing number of failed examples. The Raiders and Derek Carr. The Titans and Ryan Tannehill. The Vikings and Kirk Cousins. It’s starting to feel like we can add the Cowboys and Dak Prescott.

‘Not bad’ quarterbacks on ‘not bad’ salaries compared to other peers. Yet those contracts, in the $30-40m range, are still astronomical compared to the top defensive players. If you paid Geno Smith an annual salary of $32.4m (the projected franchise tag amount for 2023) he’d be on $1m more than Aaron Donald per year. He’d be earning $7m more than Myles Garrett. He’d be on $12m more than Jalen Ramsey and $15m more than Arik Armstead.

The cap hits of Hendrickson ($14.5m) and ($13.6m) combined in Cincinnati would be several million dollars’ cheaper than Smith’s annual salary.

That’s why paying Smith even a ‘fair’ amount comes at a cost.

You would also be making a commitment to Smith with only a year as a starter in Seattle to assess. Even the most ardent Smith-backer has to accept that there’s a significant risk that Geno Smith is, as it happens, still Geno Smith. You could end up lumbered with a bad contract that could be a ball-and-chain around the ankle of the franchise just when it should be trying to launch into a new, exciting era.

As Calkins suggested in his Seattle Times article, by playing well enough in 2022 to make a big contract a talking point — Smith could be leading the team down a path it never intended to go down.

You don’t complete the Russell Wilson trade without a plan. The Seahawks had a plan — one that almost certainly involved being cheaper at quarterback in 2023. As we’ve mentioned a few times — they appeared to start spending their 2023 cap space last off-season, probably with a cheap QB in mind. They only have $19,349,776 in effective cap space left according to Over the Cap

If paying Geno Smith a big extension (or paying any QB for that matter) was a consideration, they’ve made it incredibly difficult. They had tens of millions to spend when they dealt Wilson. That was quickly used up as they began to sign or extend players. They now have only the eighth most effective cap space. The Bears have $82m to spend in comparison. They don’t have a lot to play with.

In order to keep Smith they’ll need to cut players who’ll then need to be replaced. Filling out their roster will be a challenge, even if they extend Smith for multiple years to lower his 2023 cap hit.

Luckily I think a solution will present itself. A cold market.

Although Seattle’s fan base and media appear convinced that all the stops need to be pulled out to keep Smith — including potentially franchising him — there’s absolutely no talk about any other team having potential interest.

No other fanbases discuss Smith on their forums. Go see for yourself.

In an article by Adam Schefter today discussing Aaron Rodgers’ future, he noted:

Rodgers tops a list of quarterbacks facing major offseason questions that includes Tom Brady, Lamar Jackson, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo.

Smith isn’t even getting a mention among a group that includes Carr and Garoppolo.

It’s entirely possible the rest of the league will look at Smith as a neat story for 2022 but be put-off by the nature of his journeyman career. Carr has years of starting and production while Garoppolo has at least been to one Super Bowl and another NFC Championship with the 49ers.

Other teams might show interest, especially if they miss out on the veterans above and are not in range to draft a top rookie. Are they going to offer a contract between $30-40m though? I’d say a robust market is unlikely.

As noted on the blog recently — the franchise tag deadline comes after the combine. It’s commonly known that teams and agents talk in Indianapolis. Smith’s market will be established during that period — so the Seahawks will know whether they really have to consider using the tag.

I don’t think they’ll need to. Provided Smith is accepting of a situation where his market is colder than he hopes, a compromise should be possible to get him at a price that fits Seattle’s tight cap situation. Either way, I really hope the Seahawks are prepared to make a move that will be considered bold and unexpected by media members and fans alike. They need to be ready to move on if the price is too high.

They then need to consider bringing back Drew Lock as a bridge quarterback and drafting a rookie with their top pick.

I am not against drafting a defensive lineman at #5. Far from it. I’ve done three mock drafts so far and on each occasion, I’ve paired Seattle with a defender with their first selection.

I can even imagine a situation where their hand is forced. The Panthers didn’t appoint Frank Reich, an offensive-minded coach, to sit and hope for the best at #9. I suspect they are preparing a Trey Lance-esque move into the top-three. The Raiders may also be inclined to move up. The Texans and Colts are already sitting in the top-four. It’s not too far-fetched to think a quarterback rush will occur before Seattle’s on the clock.

If that isn’t the case, the Seahawks have to seriously consider copying Cincy and Philly. Draft a cheap quarterback to gain four years of extreme financial benefit. Use your other picks at #20, #38 and #53 to improve your defense (or other areas of need). Invest in proven quality at key positions in the veteran market.

It’s not guaranteed to work but the percentage odds appear to be stacked better in your favour. It’s not just the Bengals and Eagles. The Bills, Chargers, Ravens and Jaguars have shown — or are showing — the benefit of having a rookie quarterback. The Ravens won a Super Bowl with rookie Joe Flacco. The Bills, against the odds, turned into a contender during Josh Allen’s cheap years. The Chargers have been mismanaged on the field but have built a contending roster with a cheap quarterback. The Jaguars appear to be entering a window with Trevor Lawrence.

Our own 2013 Seahawks are another example of the benefit of a cheap quarterback and a strong overall roster. Seattle had the most expensive offensive line in the league that year and was able to host a cluster of stars — not all of them on rookie contracts. The Eagles and Chiefs then won titles with a similar benefit.

Surely these are the teams to copy?

Surely you don’t instead look towards Cousins and the Vikings, Carr and the Raiders and Tannehill and the Titans?

This should be the case whatever happens today — even if Cincinnati and Philadelphia both suffer crushing defeats. They’re where you want to be — in a game you haven’t played in since the 2014 season. Nine of 15 other teams in the conference have been to the NFC Championship game since your last visit.

Is it a risk going with a rookie QB? Yes, 100%. Is it a risk hoping you can do what the Vikings, Raiders and Titans can’t? Again, yes.

It comes back to the Brock & Salk show last week when a caller called Austin rang in to say the Seahawks needed to keep their quarterback. When challenged whether Seattle can win while paying Smith $35m a year, Austin responded by delivering five seconds of telling silence.

Football is full of tough decisions. There are constantly players you’d love to keep or reward but simply cannot or should not.

Whatever Seattle’s plan was a year ago when that Wilson trade was signed-off, must be the plan again.

The Seahawks can be like the Bengals and Eagles. They can get back to the top quite quickly. But they have to learn from those two teams. They shouldn’t do something completely different and hope for similar results.

If you missed my updated horizontal board on Friday, check it out here.

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I posted my first horizontal board in mid-November and since then, the depth of the class has been decimated by transfers and players opting not to declare.

For example, I had 21 quarterbacks graded in November. That’s down to 13 with the likes of Devin Leary transferring to Kentucky to replace Will Levis, Michael Penix Jr and Bo Nix opting to return to the PAC-12 and Spencer Rattler deciding that a red-hot end to the 2022 season was tempting enough to return to South Carolina.

This stretches to other positions too and it’s had a big impact on the 2023 draft.

The depth isn’t as good — creating a ‘double whammy’ effect where it’s not a thick class but it also lacks quality in round one.

Quite early in the process we identified that this wasn’t going to be a year with loads of legit blue-chip players. By that I mean players who would go in the top-10 ‘most years’. Even the bigger name defenders — Will Anderson and Jalen Carter — would typically be taken in the #5-10 range. Instead they’re almost certain to go in the top five.

As a consequence everyone’s going to get a bump. We’re going to see players with second round grades taken in the top-20. That won’t just be on my horizontal board, that’ll be in the league too. The second round is going to be littered with players who will receive third or even fourth round grades by some teams.

By the time you get to day three, the options are going to be sparse. A year ago you could see what a thick draft it was, stretching deep into day three. That will not be the case this year at all.

I don’t know how the league will approach this. It could mean moves in the veteran trade market before the draft, with teams willing to part with fifth and sixth rounders to rent veterans and fill holes.

We also might not see a lot of pick-hording for the later rounds by teams.

Anyone looking to trade down is more likely to want 2024 stock and unless a team is trading way up for a quarterback, they’re not typically inclined to cough up future picks.

I think we could also see some big veteran trades again this year. In 2022 we saw Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill moved before the draft, then A.J. Brown and Hollywood Brown were dealt during the first frame. The value in the 20’s and 30’s is going to be fairly mediocre and we might see some deals once again.

This probably doesn’t sound like great news for the Seahawks — with picks #20, #38 and #53 following the fifth pick overall. I wouldn’t worry too much about it because there are options that make sense for Seattle and you can build a board of players you like. The simple fact is when you have so many high picks — you’ll almost always come out of a class thinking, ‘that’s a really nice haul’. If the Seahawks didn’t have Denver’s picks and simply owned #20 and #53 — we’d be having a very different conversation. It would be quite challenging for this team to take a step forward.

The positive news for this class is it’s a far better QB group at the top end than a year ago and there’s decent defensive line depth in the top-50.

I want to continue along this strand but enough talking for now, here’s the actual board (click to enlarge):

As you can see there are a lot of players I haven’t watched and, as always, the Shrine Game and Senior Bowl will highlight prospects to check out. I think, however, this is a reasonable reflection of what this class is — even if you disagree over certain individual grades.

The first thing I want to talk about is overrated players.

There are many.

Regulars will know I’ve struggled with Clemson pass rusher Myles Murphy and have put him in round two, a slight relegation from my fringe first round grade last time. There’s simply not enough on tape to warrant a higher grade. If it wasn’t for the well known physical tools that he’ll show-off at the combine, he’d be even lower. He gets a round two grade purely due to physical upside. Most mocks will happily place him in the top-10 and call him a home-run pick. To me, that isn’t the case at all. I thought his Notre Dame tape was really concerning (and indicative of the issues he might face at the next level against physical trench opponents) and his 10% pressure rate in 2022 is a red flag — especially with his athletic talent and playing on such a loaded Clemson D-line.

Peter Skoronski is another player you often see mocked in the top-10. On tape I see a lineman with short arms who struggles handling the edge. He can be over-powered and driven backwards. I like his footwork at times and he has some athletic qualities, as you’d expect from a former four-star recruit. Even then, he’ll get into position and be driven backwards and end up hugging defenders to survive — risking a holding call. He rarely re-sets his hands to regain leverage and control. He can’t extend his arms and play inside-out with a sound kick-slide like a natural tackle.

As such, Skoronski will need to kick inside to guard. I’m not all that convinced he’ll fair any better in the leverage battle there and I’m worried about his hand-placement and lack of power. It’s very hard to project him as much more than a mid-rounder until we see proper testing results. If he shows to have great athletic upside, I’m happy to move him up a round.

Broderick Jones is in a similar boat. Does he have the size and length to play tackle? I suspect not. There’s an even bigger flaw I see with him on tape though. He dips his head all the time as he makes contact with the defender. Until he rectifies this, pro-pass rushers will just swim by him or rip down and use his forward momentum against him. You can’t re-adjust your hands or counter if you’re looking at your opponents’ shoes.

I remember watching Isaiah Wynn at Georgia and he was just so in control of his technique at tackle despite having guard size — so it was easy to project how he could handle the next level. When I watch Jones I just feel like he needs a lot of work. Again — if he blows up the combine I’ll review the grade and adjust because when your physical upside is high — it’s easier to make technical adjustments and improve on the fly. Traits help during growing pains.

Paris Johnson Jr looks like a fairly standard college tackle to me. Unexciting. I don’t see a dominating left tackle destined to come in and take the league by storm. I prefer Ohio State’s other tackle — Dawand Jones — who is a hulking, enormous blocker with great feet and he could easily be one of the gems of this draft. Darnell Wright shut-down Will Anderson for Tennessee and likewise is a superior player in my opinion.

Kelee Ringo has great size and speed but just gets beat too often to deserve a higher grade than round two. He will need the right coaching at the next level or he could end up being nothing more than a pretty-looking liability.

Bryan Bresee has rare quickness for his size but he’s simply missed too many games in his college career, had a lot of different injury issues and his play is far too inconsistent. I’m also wary that he looks like he has short arms — a problem at defensive tackle (and an issue that could also temper Mazi Smith’s stock — although he’s a far more consistent player).

Jaxon Smith-Njigba lacks the pure speed to feel excited about his next-level potential and a year out with a hamstring injury doesn’t help either. He’s basically a #3 in the NFL. How early are you prepared to take that if he’s not running a great time at 200lbs? Golden Tate ran a 4.42 at 199lbs, won the Biletnikoff Award in his last season at Notre Dame and still lasted to pick #60. Smith-Njigba only ran a 4.64 at SPARQ at the same weight he’s listed at now.

Isaiah Foskey is often mocked in round one but what are his measurables? Is he quick and twitchy enough to be a true edge threat? Does he have the length? He had 11 sacks in 2022 which is decent but he only had a pressure percentage of 9.9%. That’s a worry, especially compared to other players such as Laiatu Latu (22.6%), Tyree Wilson (16.7%) and Andre Carter (15.7%).

O’Cyrus Torrence had a good season for Florida but talk of him in round one doesn’t make much sense. He’s a pure guard who will not test well at the combine. He has a fairly sloppy frame and doesn’t appear to have much athletic upside. In certain schemes that call for size and power up front, he will carry some appeal. I just don’t see a player who typically goes in the top-50. Damien Lewis was a better athlete as a pure guard and had better tape and he lasted to round three. When you watch tape, you also see Torrence benefitted from a lot of double-teams with the right tackle. I’m not against drafting him but I think a reality check is required on his stock.

Siaki Ika seems to be everyone’s favourite player on Twitter. I’ve watched games where he flashes impressive quickness for his size, he’s bursting into the backfield and providing a surprising level of pass-rush threat. However — is that likely to translate at 358lbs to the NFL? And if you’re drafting a player of that size — he has to hold up against the run. I was really surprised by how bad Ika’s run defending is at times. If he can’t anchor as a nose and just absorb blocks, what’s he going to do for you? His effort is far too inconsistent and while there’s some athletic potential there — he’s not the kind of plug-in-and-play nose tackle some people think.

Then there are players who are underrated but are finally starting to get some recognition in the media.

Calijah Kancey is the closest thing to Aaron Donald since the man himself. He will light up the combine and have people rushing to the tape — with a hype train starting to build when his numbers pretty much match everything Donald did in his testing session. He had the top pass-rushing grade in college football per PFF (92.4) and the only thing letting him down is size. A good team will take him to be part of a deep rotation, not an every down grinder. He could be a sack-artist in that role.

Keion White just got better and better as the 2022 season went on. By the end he was blowing up plays, wreaking havoc and looking like the real deal. I’ve never seen a 285lbs defender cover a wheel-route before. White doesn’t just do it — he ran step-for-step with players like Kenny McIntosh. There are no questions about his conditioning or attitude (unlike Jalen Carter), his motor is relentless and it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he’s the player who gets into the league and becomes a big time disruptor with his size and ability to play different spots on the line. His pass-rush win rate was 19.9% in 2022 — a fantastic number given he’s not an edge.

Drew Sanders is the kind of forward-facing, aggressive linebacker Seattle badly lacks. His ability to fly to the football at 6-5 and 230lbs is impressive. He can easily stick on another 10lbs. It’s weird that in an era where Micah Parsons is such a dynamic force — Sanders hasn’t gained mass publicity. He isn’t as twitchy as Parsons but he showed in his one year at Arkansas that he can work the edge to the tune of 9.5 sacks, while predominantly playing as an orthodox middle linebacker. Sanders provides so much juice to a defense with his hitting, heat-seeking missile style and the way he covers ground hints at a top-combine display.

This is a class with four really good quarterbacks at the top of the board. The mainstream media is racing to criticise them but all have high upside and are worth taking a chance on to be a long-term franchise starter. Again — the top QB’s in the NFL currently all entered the league with flaws (with the exception of Joe Burrow, who was a one-year wonder). It’s rare to have four players like this in one class — three of which carry prototype size, arm strength and plus athleticism.

There’s great depth at running back and a lot of edge options. I think the running back group will provide more predictable production — there are some excellent players here. At defensive end there’s a lot of upside types who are a bit boom or bust. Even so, the chances are a couple of the edge defenders in this class will turn out to be quality players.

The depth at linebacker is poor, ditto at safety. It’s also a top-heavy class at tight end.

There are a few players on the new horizontal board that I haven’t touched on before and I want to get into.

I was really impressed by Ole Miss left guard Nick Broeker. I’ve not seen a guard who can pivot and change direction in space like he does. His movement skills are fairly remarkable for his size (6-5, 315lbs) and the way he gets out and pulls is top notch. Ole Miss used him a lot to get on the move, reach to the second level and find targets.

He’s a former four-star prospect and he previously played left tackle. He was kicked inside due to sub-33 inch arms which will be an issue for some teams — including potentially Seattle. That said, while I was watching him I just kept thinking — this is the type of guy who works at the next level.

It’s not just his clear athleticism and movement. Broeker has the ability to extend his arms and hold position. He can create subtle running lanes by turning a defender to create an opening. He recovers well — with evidence on tape of a defender getting the initial jolt in with a violent punch to his chest — yet he sticks in there, battles and regains leverage and control.

Nobody’s going to call him a powerhouse who drives people off the ball but I did see some push in the running game and on short-yardage situations I thought he did well. He definitely plays with an edge and will always go and find someone to hit. He had impressive reps against Alabama and Auburn and didn’t look out of place.

There are zero durability concerns — he didn’t miss a single game in college.

I’m eager to see how he gets on at the Senior Bowl. I especially want to see if the recovery skills translate to 1v1’s (which are always weighted in favour of the defender). Can he handle power and anchor down? Will he be able to reset his hands and stick without being able to play in a phone booth?

I really liked his tape and could well imagine a kick inside to center as a possibility. He has the quickness and agility to fit in Seattle’s blocking scheme and they do like tackle converts. I think there are some similarities to Austin Corbett, who played for the Rams in this system.

So far, Broeker’s the one big-school guard other that Steve Avila that really got me going since Cooper Beebe opted not to turn pro.

Two smaller school players also really caught me eye on the O-line. Nick Saldiveri is another tackle convert who played right guard in 2022 and his combination of size, aggression and athleticism was incredibly impressive. I watched him after Jim Nagy highlighted him during our conversation and came away imagining him playing for Seattle. Likewise Cody Mauch is just a classic, old-school offensive lineman — all fire and brimstone, bringing it every single down. Very active, loving what he’s doing, getting up to the second level. Aggressive, tenacious. His tape hints at athletic quality so let’s see how he tests.

A lot of people want the Seahawks to go after the big name offensive linemen but I’d be content checking on the Senior Bowl and combine performances of the names above and waiting until the middle rounds for one of these guys.

I absolutely loved watching Tulane running back Tyjae Spears. He’s only 5-10 and 195lbs so the chances are he won’t be on Seattle’s radar. However — what a combination of speed, suddenness and electricity. He’s powerful and a true X-factor playmaker. He has great contact balance to break through tackles and stay on his feet. He’s incredibly shifty when assessing how to attack, then he can explode through openings to create big plays. He’s patient at the line to let blocks develop and then able to make people miss at the second level. As a pass-catcher in the open-field he’s a huge weapon. He runs good routes and has excellent hands for a running back. Despite his lack of size he’s proportionally thick and capable of playing a feature role. I think he can start in the NFL and is one of the better players in the draft. He is a fantastic talent.

Keep an eye on Andrei Iosivas during the Senior Bowl too. He has a long torso with exceptional agility and speed. He can contort his body in the air to adjust to the football and he catches the ball away from his body superbly. I’m looking forward to seeing how he handles 1v1 duties in the receiver drills. He could be a standout. Jonathan Mingo has also been a blog favourite for some time and his size, quickness, soft-hands and experience playing outside or as a big-slot could have real appeal for a team like Seattle.

Final thoughts

The one thing a board like this does is help you set out a realistic plan. It’s very easy to just say, ‘draft this position at #5, get O-line at #20’. You see that kind of thing all the time. It doesn’t work like that. You need to review what’s actually available.

Here’s how I would break this down for the Seahawks.

At #5 they’ll have an enticing option because one of the top four quarterbacks or one of the top-two defensive linemen are guaranteed to be available. For all the talk of trading down — if you do this, you’ll likely move into an area where the value is poor unless you’re willing to consider drafting Bijan Robinson with your top pick.

Thus, trading down only makes sense if you’re essentially writing off this draft and trying to get stock for next year. I am not convinced, at #5, the Seahawks will get the kind of offer that would make this attractive. Anyone wanting to move up for a QB is likely to want to get ahead of them, rather than make a deal with Seattle. As such, Arizona at #3 are probably going to get the calls John Schneider wanted to receive to make moving down a serious consideration.

At #20 you will be able to draft a good defensive player you feel comfortable with. This is a good area to select a high-upside defender. If you did take a quarterback at #5 — you can still add young talent to your defense in round one. You won’t miss out.

In round two there are going to be good skill players available but the defensive talent pool will also remain strong at #38 — although by this point you’ll be rolling the dice on potential. I wouldn’t rule out BPA being a running back, tight end or receiver though and drafting for talent worked a year ago.

Although tight end isn’t an immediate need — just keep the names of Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Dalton Kincaid and Tucker Kraft in mind. They are four of the best players in the draft. Colby Parkinson and Noah Fant are out of contract next year and Will Dissly has just picked up another injury. If they really are prepared to think BPA — a tight end being taken between #20-40 could be the 2023 version of the Ken Walker pick. That worked out alright in the end.

By the time you get to #53 — defensive end might still provide some options but that could be the point where you consider options on the offensive line.

#5 — Quarterback and D-line options are clear
#20 — Defensive options will remain attractive
#38 — Skill players could provide value, plus boom-or-bust defenders
#53 — Could be an area where you think about interior O-line

I will update the horizontal board after the Senior Bowl.

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Mel Kiper published his first 2023 mock draft (and you can see my reaction to it above). He has the Seahawks taking Will Levis at #5 then adding a defensive lineman at #20 — Tennessee’s Byron Young.

I think that’s way too early for Young, who I have as a day three pick on my soon-to-be published updated horizontal board. I also don’t think getting a 245lbs edge is necessarily the pressing need for Seattle. They need big, disruptive bodies up front and ideally a linebacker who can make more plays than the current crop.

Nevertheless, as a plan it makes a lot of sense and I want to explain why.

Firstly — it’s extremely plausible that the Bears will trade the #1 pick to the Colts in order to maintain a top-five pick themselves. This would likely take Will Anderson and Jalen Carter off the board, leaving the Seahawks to pick between a quarterback and the third best defensive lineman at #5.

I think there’s a considerable defensive drop-off after Anderson and Carter but I don’t think there’s a big difference between the top four quarterbacks.

Levis makes a lot of sense for two reasons — his experience in Seattle’s offense and the fact he’s nowhere near as bad as some people are making out.

It’s realistic to imagine he could start quite quickly for the Seahawks. He spent a year playing for Liam Coen at Kentucky — a Sean McVay disciple who acted as LA’s offensive coordinator this season (before recently agreeing to return to Kentucky).

Levis excelled in the offense and looked terrific within it. He likely knows all of the terminology used by Shane Waldron and it wouldn’t be a massive task to adjust to Seattle’s system. Unlike most college quarterbacks, he’s been playing in a pro-style offense. It’s a bonus that the offense he has played in is also Waldron’s.

For that reason, Levis is almost tailor-made for the Seahawks. If you really wanted to max-out the financial benefit of starting a quarterback on a cheap rookie contract, Levis gives you that opportunity. You could do what the Bengals have done — invest major resource into the trenches in the veteran market (Trey Hendrickson, D.J. Reader, O-line) and pad out your roster with proven quality.

Because you also have picks #20, #38, #53 and #84 — you would still have ample opportunity to add good, young defensive players.

Even Micah Parsons is highlighting the benefits…

Besides mahomes, every team in the final 4 Qb is on a rookie deal and surrounded by talent! Mhmm interesting take! https://t.co/Md1CxGq49e

— Micah Parsons (@MicahhParsons11) January 25, 2023

Let’s also not forget — Mahomes and the Chiefs won their Super Bowl when he was on a rookie contract. They’ve been able to add talent (Joe Thuney, Orlando Brown, Frank Clark, Jordan Reid) due to the benefits of the rookie wage scale, before Mahomes’ deal kicks in to the max. The same can be said for the Eagles, who’ve turned their roster around very quickly.

In terms of installing phase two of a big rebuild — this is the kind of plan I imagine most people expected the Seahawks to go with 12 months ago.

Secondly, Levis continues to get a bad rap in the media but there’s a serious lack of context being expressed.

For any regular to the blog this is going over old ground so apologies — but it’s worth repeating.

Kentucky were not a good football team a year ago. They were, actually, quite dreadful at times. New offensive coordinator Rich Scangarello struggled. The offensive line lost Darian Kinnard and Luke Fortner and was completely unable to pass-protect. There were no weapons on offense and the star running back had to serve a suspension.

Just look, once again, at the ‘sacks per game’ stats for a collection of teams featuring big-name quarterbacks in 2022:

Oregon — 4 sacks in 12 games (0.33 per game)
Georgia — 7 sacks in 13 games (0.54 per game)
Washington — 7 sacks in 12 games (0.58 per game)
Ohio State — 8 sacks in 12 games (0.67 per game)
Florida — 12 sacks in 12 games (1.00 per game)
Alabama — 20 sacks in 12 games (1.67 per game)
Tennessee — 23 sacks in 12 games (1.92 per game)
Kentucky — 42 sacks in 12 games (3.50 per game)

Is it any surprise that the quarterbacks who were getting all the hype and praise — Michael Penix Jr, Bo Nix etc — were playing for teams who barely gave up any sacks?

Further to that, the Washington, Oregon, Tennessee and Ohio State offensive systems are spread open, hand-holding schemes with a history of mass-production. Three of the teams listed in the previous sentence had an arsenal of fantastic weapons. The likes of the Huskies and Ducks were playing in the PAC-12, not the SEC.

I would suggest that if you put Penix Jr behind center for Kentucky, he would’ve struggled in 2022. Ditto Hooker, Nix, C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young. I watched every game UK played and at no point was the situation conducive with success.

I wonder how Levis would’ve looked playing for Kalen DeBoer in the PAC-12? Or for Ohio State, sauntering through their BIG-10 schedule with Marvin Harrison Jr to throw to and an O-line featuring three top-50 picks?

Levis made Kentucky more competitive than they had any right to be. One of his best performances, as it happens, came against Georgia in a close loss.

This doesn’t excuse some of the clear issues within his game. I would also argue, however, that you cannot compare his situation to Stroud’s or Young’s and make an apples for apples comparison.

We’ve been speaking about PFF’s statistic this week that lists ‘turnover worthy plays’. As we can see, there’s not that much difference between Levis and every other top quarterback in college football. Perhaps his number of picks speaks to the impact his environment had on him, compared to the better environment experienced by other QB’s?

Turnover worthy plays (2022)

Dorian Thompson-Robinson — 19
CJ Stroud — 16
Drake Maye — 16
Max Duggan — 15
Will Levis — 13
Anthony Richardson — 13
Quinn Ewers — 12
Caleb Williams — 11
Bryce Young — 9
Bo Nix — 8
Michael Penix Jr — 8
Tanner McKee — 8
Hendon Hooker — 5

When you look at what he did in Seattle’s/McVay’s offense in 2021, you can clearly see what he is capable of:

Levis has a lot of potential. As much potential as any of the other quarterbacks in the draft. I think he can execute the system and provide X-factor ability with his athleticism and his arm. He’s a million miles away from a Joe Burrow level player but we need to accept you’re not likely to find another one of those for a long, long time.

On a contract that would be worth an average of $7.8m with a year-one cap-hit of $5.6m — you could begin to build a better roster. You could look at the trade market for a player like DeForest Buckner, as we discussed last week. You can pursue Da’Ron Payne, Dalvin Tomlinson and/or Javon Hargrave. On offense, there’s a chance Mecole Hardman reaches the market and you could maybe reinforce your O-line with an experienced guard.

Then at #20 — you can go and add a top defensive prospect.

That could be Keion White — the Georgia Tech defensive lineman who has none of the character or conditioning baggage of Jalen Carter, plays his heart out every game, has outstanding physical traits and is expected to be one of the stars of the combine and Senior Bowl.

It could be Drew Sanders — a big, physical, quick linebacker who constantly plays in attack mode and has shown an ability to rush the passer on third down, tallying 9.5 sacks in 2022.

It could be Calijah Kancey — the closest thing to Aaron Donald since Aaron Donald, with his sensational pass-rushing ability and outstanding physical profile. Kancey is finally getting some national media attention but as regulars know, we’ve been talking about him for a long time.

There’s depth on the D-line and the #20-60 range will provide options and value. It’s not #5 or bust for the defensive front seven in this class. It certainly will be at quarterback, short of a mid-round flier on Dorian Thompson-Robinson (who I like).

The alternative plan — based on Kiper’s mock — is probably to pay Geno Smith a handsome contract, then be forced to rely on draft picks to improve the defense. You might end up taking a chance on Tyree Wilson at #5.

The thing is — it’s funny how Wilson is celebrated for his physical traits and his inconsistent play, age and injury situation is forgotten. With Levis — the opposite is true. Hardly anyone talks about his positives or upside.

Which, incidentally, is exactly what happened with Mahomes, Josh Allen, DeShaun Watson and Justin Herbert during their pre-draft processes. A lot of focus on the issues, not enough focus on what they could be.

I’m glad Kiper brought this conversation to the table. His plan for the Seahawks makes sense and it’s something we should take seriously as a possibility throughout this process.

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