The Seahawks don’t have a lot of money to spend. They arguably should have more — the Russell Wilson trade should’ve presented a bigger opportunity in the market this year. That said, this looks like a truly awful free agency class — so it probably doesn’t matter as much as it could’ve done.

So who might they target in free agency?

The Uchenna Nwosu model

This feels like the benchmark for any ‘key’ signing in 2023. Nwosu agreed a decent contract (two-years, $9.5m a year average) but it was far from a big splurge. He was a good age (25) and the length of the deal provided an incentive to earn an even bigger third contract. The Seahawks bet on development.

Nwosu had a career year with 9.5 sacks in 2022. I suspect they’ll have a similar player in mind, possibly two, who can be brought in for a similar value at a similar age and length of deal.

The only problem is — will those types of targets be priced out due to the lack of quality available? The 2023 version of Nwosu might get a much bigger offer this year because the alternatives aren’t there. It only takes one deal — Christian Kirk is a good example a year ago — and the market explodes.

Familiarity is important to the Seahawks

We’ve seen it so many times over the years. Former players returning to Seattle. Rightly or wrongly, Pete Carroll values familiarity and fit. He likes ‘his guys’. There are a number of ‘his guys’ on the market this year and it’ll be a surprise if at least one doesn’t come back. We saw it last season with Quinton Jefferson, Justin Coleman and eventually Bruce Irvin.

How good are the available options?

Even if the Seahawks had the money and the desire to make a big splash, the options simply aren’t there. Carroll and Schneider are doing a lot of media interviews at the moment. They are really pushing the culture, the fit and the vibes around the team. Geno Smith added to that during his press conference with a glowing reference for his employers.

It feels like the big recruitment job is on. I think they’re going to use Smith and Nwosu as examples of what can happen if you join this team and succeed. We’ll see if it pays dividends.

What should the priority be?

Defensive front seven, without doubt.

They can’t rely on just rookies to fix the defense. They need some grizzled veterans who can come in and deliver immediate results.

Plus — the more they get done here, the less pressure there is on the draft. You don’t want to be backed into a corner in April. There could be some very interesting non-defensive options at #5, #20, #38 and #53. You want to have as much flexibility as possible.

I do think they’ll have a ring around the names of Luke Wypler and John Michael Schmitz for the draft. However, they might also stick their toe in the veteran market at center — even if it’s just as a hedge. I think Austin Blythe was a hedge a year ago but Tyler Linderbaum never got into range to be selected. Adding a hedge makes sense, hopefully at a cheaper price than Blythe.

Can they create more cap space?

It seems Shelby Harris is on the way out. That would leave the Seahawks with $17.5m to spend in effective cap space. I suspect they might hold on to Quinton Jefferson for now and then if free agency and the draft goes their way, release him in May. They’ve done stuff like that in the past. If/when he goes, it saves another $4.5m.

I also think it’s time to just rip the band-aid off and move on from Jamal Adams. I don’t think there’s any reason to drag this out. It hasn’t worked, it’s been a bad trade and contract. Let’s just all move on. Designating him as a post-June 1st cut would save $8.4m this year — an amount worth having given Adams’ status for 2023 is unclear. You can reinvest that money in a contributing front-seven defender or center.

I think you can live with these numbers, especially when you can make money back with outs on Quandre Diggs, Will Dissly and Geno Smith next year:

2023 Dead Cap: $9,670,000
2024 Dead Cap: $14,220,000
2023 Cap Savings: $8,440,000

Defensive line targets

Zach Allen (DE, Arizona)
This could be the first player they turn to. Like Nwosu, he’s 25-years-old. He’s perfectly suited to play defensive end in Seattle’s scheme at 6-4, 281lbs with 35-inch arms. He ran a 4.34 short shuttle at his combine, which will appeal to the Seahawks. Allen’s coming off his best season with 5.5 sacks and he feels like an ascending talent. In many ways he’s the ideal target. However, the fact he’s being name-checked in this article suggests someone might be willing to pay him a lot more than Seattle can afford.

A’Shawn Robinson (DE, LA Rams)
He gets the job done in the running game and that’s what Seattle needs. Of course they also need game-wreckers but their run defense last year was appalling at times. They need some guys who understand the scheme and can just slow opponents down. He’s big, strong and long (+34 inch arms) and plays with attitude. He’s just turned 27-years-old. It wouldn’t be a glamorous signing but it could be an effective one.

Greg Gaines (DE, LA Rams)
I’ve always been a fan of Gaines’ dating back to his Washington days. The big issue was length. He only has 31 1/4 inch arms. He ran a reasonable shuttle (4.67) and he was plenty disruptive in college. He’s carried that on for the Rams, although obviously it helps playing next to Vita Vea (UW) and Aaron Donald (LA). Seattle might be willing to overlook the length to get someone with experience in the scheme who is tried and tested. The Rams probably can’t afford to keep both Robinson and Gaines, so we’ll see who they prioritise.

John Cominsky (DE, Detroit)
A great story for the Lions last season, Cominsky was claimed off waivers after being cut by the Falcons. He developed into an important player as the 2022 season progressed, recording four sacks. Detroit’s fans really took to him and he turned into a heart-and-soul type player. He’s 6-5 and 285lbs, 27-years-old and ran a 4.38 short shuttle. He’s another defender who is at a good age, has shown signs of ascension and he fits the scheme. Mike Garafolo thinks he might get $5m-a-year which isn’t extortionate if you believe he’s ascending.

Jihad Ward (DE, New York Giants)
A 28-year-old veteran who’s been around the block, Ward had three sacks for the Giants in 2022 and the fans in New York seem to value his place in the defensive rotation. He’s 6-5 and 287lbs and played for $1.1m last season. There’s scope to bring him in at a reasonable price.

Edge rush targets

Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (EDGE, Houston)
He’s a perfect physical fit with a similar frame to Uchenna Nwosu (6-2, 253lbs). He has nearly 34-inch arms. He had five-sacks a year ago in a rotational role, registering a 19% pass rush win rate. He’s 27 and could be a good option on a Nwosu-style deal.

Leonard Floyd (EDGE, LA Rams)
He terrorised Seattle plenty of times and although he turns 31 this year, could he provide some proven production in a scheme he perfectly fits? He has ideal size and length. He had nine sacks in 2022 and 30 in his last three seasons. The team that signs him all but guarantees a 10-sack season. The big question is whether his market is strong enough that he’s simply too expensive.

Anthony Nelson (OLB, Tampa Bay)
He’s been playing OLB for the Buccs and he replaced Shaquil Barrett after he injured his achilles tendon and was lost for the season. Nelson started the final six games and recorded 5.5 sacks and three forced fumbles. He’s 26-years-old and ran a 4.23 short shuttle at his combine. He could be an interesting option at a good age. I’m just not convinced he’s quick enough and although he’s been playing OLB, he’s bigger than your typical player for that role.

Frank Clark (EDGE, Kansas City)
I suspect the Seahawks are already lighting up his phone simply because of familiarity. At 29-years-old and still making plays in the playoffs, Clark will likely command a lot of attention. He’s not an ideal scheme fit and it’s hard to work out exactly where he would play — but if his market is colder than expected, they could reconnect.

Center targets

Garrett Bradbury (C, Minnesota)
He’s 27, he’s a perfect scheme fit and he ran a 4.53 short shuttle at his combine. The only question is cost. Is there a big market for him? If not, the Seahawks could secure this position before the draft. It’s hard to tell what he can expect to get on the open market. I think the presence of Luke Wypler and John Michael Schmitz in the draft might mean they prefer to add a cheaper veteran and draft a center.

Jake Brendel (C, San Francisco)
He did a terrific job replacing Alex Mack for the 49ers and he’s another great scheme fit with his size. His agility testing — he ran a 4.27 short shuttle at 303lbs — will be very attractive. The Niners aren’t flush with cash and the Seahawks might be able to steal him away. He’s older (turns 31 in September) so might be cheaper.

Coleman Shelton (C, LA Rams)
Shelton had an option on his contract which means he had a choice on whether to become a free agent. Sean McVay confirmed he’s taken that option. He has experience in the scheme and he did a good job replacing Brian Allen in 2022. He’s a former Husky so he has roots in the PNW. His agility testing is strong (4.59 short shuttle). He’s a veteran option and could make for a useful draft hedge.

Linebacker

Cole Holcomb (LB, Cleveland)
Holcomb plays with his hair (a mullet, as it happens) on fire. He’s 240lbs and truly old-school in his approach. Even so, he’s very athletic — running a brilliant 4.14 short shuttle at his combine. He became a starter last year before an injury curtailed his season. He’s 26-years-old and would be a good addition as someone who can start in the middle while Jordyn Brooks recovers — then play next to him when he’s back.

Drue Tranquill (LB, LA Chargers)
Over the years we’ve noted the importance of the short shuttle at linebacker for Seattle. Tranquill, like Holcomb, ran a 4.14 at his combine. He’s 6-2, 234lbs and turns 28 in August. He graded well as a pass rusher (76.4) and in coverage (76.7) in 2022 according to PFF. He could be viewed as a player at a good age with an ascending performance level.

Lavonte David (LB, Tampa Bay)
He’s going to hit the market and he remains one of my favourite players in the league. David plays with so much speed and violence, even at 33-years-old. I would love to imagine it’s possible to get him but I’m guessing he’ll be too expensive.

Bobby Wagner (LB, LA Rams)
John Schneider confirmed on 710 Seattle Sports that a conversation has been had with Wagner. I’m sure the team is open to a return but it’ll have to be for the right price and by the sounds of it, the Seahawks have other priorities to address first (D-line). I can imagine this is a situation where should Wagner experience a market similar to a year ago, if the deal comes to Seattle they’ll welcome him back. If someone else steps up to the plate, they won’t get into a bidding war.

Erik Kendricks (LB, Minnesota)
His brother spent time in Seattle and while Kendricks is now 31-years-old, he could provide cheap cover for Jordyn Brooks. He ran a 4.14 short shuttle back in the day and if he’s retained some of his agility, he’ll appeal.

Other positions

Rashaad Penny (RB, Seattle)
I think they’ll be keen to bring Penny back — as a draft hedge if nothing else. But his injury history will mean this has to be a team friendly deal.

Drew Lock (QB, Seattle)
The price would have to be right — and the fact they’re toying with drafting a quarterback probably means Lock will seek a destination where he has more of a future. However, if his market is cold — he’d be a welcome returnee to back-up Geno Smith.

Shaquill Griffin (CB, Jacksonville)
I have no real interest in bringing Griffin back unless it’s on a deal similar to Artie Burns’. If he can be had as cheap competition, that’s fine. It’s worth noting that Seattle made a push to keep him before he signed in Jacksonville — so he could be ‘one of their guys’ they’re comfortable bringing back.

Too expensive?

Javon Hargrave (DT, Philadelphia)
ESPN keeps writing what an ideal fit Hargrave would be but it’s not the kind of deal the Seahawks typically go for. His 17.2% pass rush win rate would be a great addition but he’s just turned 30 and is being projected to earn around $20m a year. I’m not sure they would’ve got into a bidding war on that price even if he was 26.

Dre’Mont Jones (DT, Denver)
He’s being touted as a big-money target for several teams and the chances are he’ll cost way more than his true value.

Germaine Pratt (LB, Cincinnati)
He received an 80.6 PFF grade in 2022 (and a 90.1 grade in coverage). He’s turned into one of the best linebacker’s few people talk about. Pratt turns 27 in May and is typically the kind of player who you’d expect to get a good pay-day, even with a lot of linebackers on the market.

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This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

A Salary Cap Update as Free Agency Looms

We have been tracking and providing some insight on the Seahawks’ salary cap situation all season and that will continue as we cover a very exciting off-season for the team.  I’ll be popping in occasionally to provide some updates and analysis on the cap so we can stay abreast of the issues the team is facing.

I want to begin by telling you the team has no money to spend this offseason.  Zero.

Then we will talk about why that is not entirely true and what the Seahawks can do about it.

The team currently sits at $20.2 million of total cap space per OTC, with only $9.04 million of that as effective cap space.  

OTC arrives at that effective number by reducing the cap number by the estimated 2023 draft rookie class pool number of $9.66 million and taking another $750k to get to two more minimum-hit roster players to reach 51 total players.

Notes on the Geno Smith Contract

We just received the breakdown on the brilliant Geno Smith contract with the Seahawks.  John Schneider has knocked it out of the park by providing a contract that rewards Geno for a great 2022, incentivizes more great play going forward and allows the Seahawks room to choose whether to draft a quarterback of the future this year or to stick with Geno Smith as their main option for the future.

Based on the information we have we can project approximate cap hits for the years of the contract:

2023 — $10.1 million

2024 — $31.2 million ($46.2m if $15m of roster bonus escalators met in 2023)

2025 — $33.7 million ($48.7m if $15m of roster bonus escalators met in 2024)

It looks like there is about $27.3m initially guaranteed with the potential to get up to $40 million in 2024.

The structure and cap hits are eerily similar to the higher-end projection we made in November.

One key note to be aware of:  In Mike Florio’s post he noted that the Seahawks have almost no obligation to Smith in 2024:

<blockquote>

The remaining $12.7 million becomes fully guaranteed in February 2024. And the Seahawks can cut him before then.

</blockquote>

This does leave the Seahawks in a fantastic position to draft a quarterback and have relatively little dead cap space on the books if they choose to move on from Smith in 2024.  

However, it would appear that the Seahawks have structured the deal to become fully guaranteed a few days after the Super Bowl, which is standard practice for them.

What does that mean?  Barring a disastrous season, the Seahawks will very likely let the deadline to cut Smith pass and the salary become guaranteed and then assess their options in the trade market if they wish to move on from him in 2024.

You should also know that the injury guarantee assures that if Smith ends the year on Injured Reserve, that February $12.7m guarantee is practically set in stone.

So, while there is that option for the Seahawks to escape the contract relatively easily, the chances they will take it are not very high.  This lends itself to the idea that a trade before the roster bonus hits in March is the most likely path if the Seahawks want to turn the reins over to their second-year quarterback.

As an aside, last year the NFL rejected the first version of Geno’s contract with the Seahawks due to the incentives.  They reworked it and got it done quickly.

I wonder how the NFL will view a contract with $30m in “roster bonus escalators” this time?  We will see.

Back to the Cap Space

The Seahawks also need to keep a reserve in place for injury replacements and other in-season player transactions.  In our offseason opus we proposed setting aside $10m for this purpose but $9.04 million will do.

So, theoretically, they are tapped at the moment for free cap space.  With free agency coming next week and the team having needs at spots like defensive line, linebacker, center, wide receiver, backup quarterback and running back — that paints a bleak picture of how they can significantly improve their team apart from the draft.

Fortunately, there are two bits of good news.

The Seahawks can sign players next week even though they do not appear to have any cap room.  How?

Let’s Talk Timing and Effective Space

Cap hits derived from contracts are applied to the cap number not when players are drafted or free agent signings and trades are first reported by one of the league insiders but when they are officially signed on the dotted line and then filed with the NFL and the league puts their seal of approval on them.  The two dates are very rarely the same.

How does that help the Seahawks?  They have a large rookie pool number due to having four high draft picks and 10 total picks in the draft.  The draft is in late April.  Do most rookies sign a contract the minute they step off the stage after putting a Seahawks hat on and posing with the commissioner for pictures?  No.  It usually happens later in the summer.

So, while that $9.66 million of cap space is technically earmarked for the draft picks, the Seahawks can spend some of that room for free agents now and make a move to find that room later in the offseason (in a trade or a post-June 1 cut for instance).  The same goes with the injury fund of $9.04 million.  So, the Seahawks have approximately $18.7 million to spend right now.

Teams do this all the time.  In fact, it is not uncommon for a team very close to the cap limit to file a new contract for an acquired player that puts them over the cap and at the same time file a corresponding release or restructure of another player to keep them in compliance with the cap.

So, before we even talk about who is getting cut, traded or renegotiated, it is good to know that the Seahawks have some cap room available to them.

It can be confusing at times, particularly when the number OTC reports is not the ‘real’ number.  But we always do our best to make sure you have a solid grasp on what is happening.

Effective space is the other area that can demonstrate that cap hits are not as big as initially thought.  The Seahawks only must count their highest 51 cap hits toward their total salary cap number.

You will see the roster balloon up this summer to 90 players as they sign undrafted free agents, practice squad type players and others.

So, at some point this spring or summer the Seahawks will announce they have signed 15 new players and rightly your first thought is ‘what does this do to their cap?’  As long as they are signed for less than the 51st highest paid player, it does nothing to the cap.

What about new players that fall within the top 51?  Their full cap hit applies but it also bumps that 51st player off the cap rolls and that mitigates some of the cost.

So, as a hypothetical example, let’s say the Seahawks have $10m of cap room with 51 players signed and they re-sign Travis Homer to a one-year $1.25m deal.  His salary adds $1.25m to their cap charges but they also gain the bottom salary player’s cap hit back.  Say the current lowest cap hit player on the roster is slated to hit the cap for $750k.  The net effect on the cap of signing Homer in this example is to reduce their available cap to spend by only the difference between the two players – $500k.  

Their cap number after signing Homer would then be $9.5 million.

Despite having a tight cap situation, they do have some flexibility to build out their roster, assuming they are agreeable to making some corresponding moves to free up some cap room at some point later in the offseason.

Before the Seahawks go shopping though, they must take care of their own.  There is a deadline for that coming up quickly as well.

Restricted and Exclusive Rights Free Agents

The Seahawks must tender offers to those two groups by Wednesday March 15, when the league year officially opens or they enter the free agent market and can leave the Seahawks without any recourse.

The most likely candidate for a Restricted Free Agent tender is safety Ryan Neal.  Between his excellent play last year and the still-long road of recovery that Jamal Adams has, it seems like an obvious move to tender him and keep him on the roster.  

The Seahawks can tender him at the “Right of First Refusal” level of $2.627m (which means they can match any offer he gets from another team but get no compensation if they choose not to match) or the “Second Round” level of $4.304 million (which means they can match any offer he gets from another team and if they choose not to match, they get that team’s second round pick as compensation).

They have three Exclusive Rights Free Agents they can and likely will tender for $940k each – LB John Rhattigan, KR Godwin Igwebuike and CB Michael Jackson Sr.  The Seahawks can offer them this minimum number and lock the players out from negotiating with any other team.

Given the Seahawks’ needs at corner and linebacker (as well as special teams), it would not be a shock if they tendered both Rhattigan and Jackson.  Igwebuike would seem a lock as well given the bolt of lightning he injected into the Seahawks’ return game down the stretch last year.

Josh Onujiogu is also an ERFA.  With zero credited seasons, the Seahawks can tender him for the minimum $750k and basically have no cap hit.  They did promote him to the active roster and then immediately made him a healthy scratch for Week 18 last year, likely as a one-time atta-boy pay bump for his season with the team.  Maybe they like him more than people think.

That means there is some money to be spent there.

Do not be surprised if they tender Ryan Neal at the $4.304 million number (making their total commitment at safety for 2023 over $40 million.  Ack.).  

Or they could also forego all that and extend Neal, buying out the tender season.  Maybe a 3-year deal in the $14-18 million range would do the trick.  Neal gets some bonus money and the security of a deal and the Seahawks get a versatile player they can move forward with and a little bit of cap room.  They also put another feather in their quiver of rewarding undrafted, unwanted street free agent types.  

Maybe even a bit of a hedge too, if they decide to approach Jamal Adams about a contract reworking.

Anyway, if the Seahawks tender these players that will charge the cap at about $4.87m.

That leaves them with about $13.83m they can shop with in free agency next week.

But they would need to make some roster adjustments to reclaim nearly every dollar they spend just to have enough to pay their rookies and have that in-season cushion.

How can they do that?

Candidates to Reduce Their Cap Hit

The Seahawks have several players they could make some roster changes to in order to make the salary cap work for them.  We went into detail on most of them in this piece last fall.

I thought I would summarize the primary options in simple spreadsheet form.  I listed the players top to bottom in order of projected likeliness the Seahawks will make some kind of move with them.  I also highlighted the most likely moves in green.  Have a look:

As you can see, there is a chunk of money the team can make available.  At the high extreme end, they can pick up about $40m or so of cap room if they need.

Why is Shelby Harris at the top?  He is a big easy target with $8.9m available and at 32 is at a concerning age.  There is another reason the Seahawks will likely make a move with him sooner rather than later:  He has a $2 million roster bonus due March 19, set specifically for the Seahawks to make a decision on him.

EDIT:  It does appear that Harris will be cut — as he has alluded to it on social media — but nothing official has been announced or confirmed.  Perhaps they are putting a line in the water to feel out options for a trade?

Nwosu seems a lock for an extension if he is willing to bypass exploring the market in 2024.  The max they can pick up is $5.3m but it would be wise to probably count on about $3 million savings at most.

Why is Tyler Lockett’s name on this list?  He is not going anywhere in the trade market, unless some team absolutely bowled them over with an offer.  But that $5.69 million restructuring is a nice little chunk to have in the team’s back pocket.  They could convert some of Lockett’s salary to bonus and push some money out.  It could be extremely useful if they need to create some more injury replacement money, or if John Schneider swings a classic in-season trade for a disgruntled star veteran.

Why is Bryan Mone not on the list?  He endured a particularly harsh injury last year.  He likely will not play in 2023 and his NFL career might be over.  There is a very good chance he will be making use of the NFL Injury Benefit, which provides up to $2 million from the team with a $1.2 million cap hit if he is released with a failed physical designation and cannot catch on with another team.  There is little cap benefit to be had by considering cutting Mone until we know more about his injury.

Putting This All Together

What does all this mean?

Taking care of just their basic needs could seemingly soak up all of their available cap room once again.

If the Seahawks are determined to improve in a big way this offseason, they will need to be more aggressive this offseason.

That means restructuring players, cutting players you otherwise might not, or having a hard conversation with a player you have invested heavily in, like Jamal Adams.

It also means being aggressive with your salary cap strategy in regards to new contracts.  They can do what other teams do, acquire a big piece that helps them tremendously with very little cap room available and just manage the cap to make it work.  

I will make the same pitch I made in January.  Consider:  The Seahawks have bookend tackles, an incredibly talented running back, a limitless corner and more than one pass rusher on very low-cost contracts.  Come April they will likely add a few more extremely talented players.

Add to that, John Schneider has just painted a masterpiece with the Geno Smith contract.  He has flexibility, options and has not committed cap-wrecking amounts of money to the quarterback position.   But at the same time, he could get a very sizable return on the field in 2023 — and longer if they dare draft a quarterback high in the draft.  Maybe even more if he manages to trade Geno for a premium draft pick.

Those are all preambles to something much, much bigger.  The reason you acquire cheap talent that can produce well on the field is so you can spend on the top available talent to max out that cheap talent and take you deep into the playoffs.  

A top player or two does so much more than simply fill a hole on the roster.  He covers warts, draws attention and gives players who have yet to fulfill their true potential the opportunity to stretch out and play with abandon.

If they strike with purpose this offseason and display the same level of shrewdness we have seen since this time last year, they could be set up to consistently make deep playoff runs in the years to come.

The Bears are moving down to the #9 pick for the #61 pick this year, a first rounder in 2024 and a second rounder in 2025. They’re also acquiring receiver D.J. Moore.

Carolina gets the #1 pick. They also retain the #40 pick this year.

As noted in my updated mock draft this week, the Panthers trading up to #1 felt inevitable.

Owner David Tepper has been waiting to make an aggressive move at quarterback for some time. This is an aggressive move.

He tried and failed to trade for Matt Stafford. He wanted Deshaun Watson and couldn’t seal the deal. They’ve been muddling around since. Tepper was on the record saying he wanted ‘special’ at the position. Now, he and his franchise are going to get what they wanted.

So what does this mean?

Let’s run through it step-by-step…

Who are they going to take?

Tepper’s desire for ‘special’ is intriguing. I can’t imagine he’s making this move for a 5-10 quarterback, however highly rated Bryce Young is.

For me he’s moving up for C.J. Stroud or Anthony Richardson.

They are the two players who sparkled the brightest at the combine last weekend. They have the X-factor talent, charisma and personality.

My money’s on Stroud simply because he’s better placed to start immediately. Richardson needs time.

There were also enough moments in that game against Georgia to believe he has some Mahomes-esque quality to him. Stroud is a tremendous talent and he’d be joining a team with a good O-line and defense. Now, he needs some weapons.

The Panthers aren’t messing about. They hired an experienced offensive-minded coach. They’ve spent a fortune on their wider coaching staff. Now they’re going big for a quarterback.

Why didn’t the Colts move up?

With four good quarterbacks available, they had little reason to. GM Chris Ballard values picks. They were guaranteed a young signal caller, unlike Carolina. Reports earlier suggested they are ‘enamored’ with Will Levis, who could last to #4.

Unless there was one player they simply had to have, they weren’t going to sell the family silver to move up.

How does this impact the top-five?

Now that Chicago is out of the top-five, it’s extremely likely we’ll see three quarterbacks taken before Seattle’s pick.

The Panthers will take one and so will the Colts. The Texans are expected to — but I still think they’ll consider Will Anderson at #2. If not, Anderson will be taken at #3 by Arizona. If the top pass rusher isn’t available to the Cardinals, I think they’ll trade down with a team wanting to select the #2 quarterback.

How does this impact the Seahawks?

Sitting at #5 they are very likely to face a situation where three quarterbacks and Will Anderson are off the board.

As noted yesterday, I am very suspicious of Tyree Wilson’s fit in Seattle. He’s 6-5 and 271lbs. That’s not the size of an outside linebacker in the Seahawks’ scheme or a 3-4 defensive end. Wilson is perfect suited to play in a 4-3 defense as an edge rusher and I’m not convinced the Seahawks are going to take Wilson at #5.

Neither do I think they’ll consider Jalen Carter. When a team repeatedly says they focused on character a year ago ‘without compromise’ — and they attribute their successful class to that approach — it takes an enormous leap to think they’ll now renege on that and draft someone like Carter. The maturity and conditioning questions where bad enough. The legal trouble he now faces has upped the ante.

My prediction remains that the Seahawks are preparing for one of two things. Either an unlikely fall to #5 for Anderson, or they’ll take whichever quarterback is left of the golden four.

Geno Smith’s contract is almost tailor-made to select a QB at #5. His cap-hit is just $10.1m this year, with an out in 12 months time. It is perfectly designed. Smith himself is already embracing the possibility of Seattle taking a quarterback and is promising to help them as much as he can (while competing with them).

Unless Anderson falls, the defensive options at #5 simply don’t make sense. The options at #20 and #38 however, most certainly do. This is the range where plenty of defensive linemen are expected to go — Keion White, Calijah Kancey, Lukas Van Ness, Myles Murphy, Will McDonald, Adetomiwa Adebawore, Tuli Tuipulotu, Mazi Smith, Bryan Bresee, Drew Sanders and Nolan Smith. Possibly others too.

Taking whoever is left at #5 from the C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, Anthony Richardson and Will Levis group appears — to me at least — to be the most likely option. Or, if the Cardinals also trade out of the top-five, selecting Will Anderson instead.

So how will this play out?

In my latest mock I had Stroud, Anderson and Young going in the top-three, with Indianapolis and Seattle taking Levis and Richardson respectively.

In Mike Sando’s interesting ‘GM and Executives mock draft’ this week, he offered the following nugget:

Asked about Young and Stroud being the top two picks, an exec from a team picking lower in the top 10 hedged.

“I would say this: Will Anderson and the two quarterbacks in the top three,” he said.

I take this to mean there’s still a chance Anderson goes second overall, as noted in my mock. But the consensus seems to be that Stroud, Young and Anderson, one way or another, will be the first three picks.

I still wonder if Richardson has barged his way into that conversation post-combine, but we’ll see.

If it plays out that way, I would expect the Colts and Seahawks to divvy up Levis and Richardson between them.

And for all the talk of the flaws with each player, here’s a notable quote from John Schneider — appearing on 710 Seattle yesterday, being asked about how he scouts QB’s:

“You have to be able to project where they’re going. You just can’t look at here’s A, B and C and that’s part of their game, you have to be able to say here’s A, B and C — what’s it going to look like at X, Y and Z? Where are they going to be? That’s the study, that’s the art, that’s the projection that’s involved.”

Schneider has consistently shown he likes traits. The only player I can think of with similar traits to Levis and Richardson in the last 10 drafts is Josh Allen — a player Schneider was supposedly interested in.

If they take a quarterback at #5, they’ll have ample stock at #20, #38 and beyond to address defensive needs — where BPA and value could be strong.

This will be all the more telling if they focus on the defensive line early in free agency.

Will the Cardinals trade down?

Jason La Canfora is already suggesting so on Twitter. It’s funny — a lot of people want to hammer this excellent looking quarterback class. And yet the top-four could be the top-four quarterbacks. Funny that. It’s almost like they’re, you know, actually really talented.

I’ll believe this when I see it. Arizona needs two things badly. One — a pass rusher. Two — someone to change the culture of that team. Will Anderson addresses both issues emphatically.

Is the new Cardinals’ GM going to appoint Jonathan Gannon and then launch his tenure in Arizona slipping deeper into the top-10, waiting to see what’s left? Not giving his coach anything significant to work with on defense? I just don’t buy that. And it’ll be harder to get a haul dropping from #3 to #7, compared to Carolina jumping eight spots to #1.

I think they’ll take Anderson if he’s available and only trade down if Houston takes him at #2.

What will the Bears do at #9?

It’s not beyond the realms of possibility they convince themselves that taking Jalen Carter would be a good idea here. I think the addition of D.J. Moore, however, at least points to an acknowledgement that they can’t just ignore the offense as they rebuild their defense. Peter Skoronski and Darnell Wright would both be solid picks.

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Take this with a grain of salt — but this report in the Washington Post from Jason La Canfora is worth acknowledging if nothing else:

An NFL general manager, under similar restrictions about discussing prospects, concurred, and both officials said that from what they have gleaned, the Houston Texans (second overall), Indianapolis Colts (fourth) and Seattle Seahawks (fifth) are among the teams exploring what it might take to land the first pick.

This is the first suggestion we’ve seen that the Seahawks might be interested in trading up. La Canfora adds:

“He’s (Anthony Richardson) the kind of kid I could see Seattle looking to move up for,” the executive said. “He fits their mold. But [Seattle GM John Schneider] loves to move back. He doesn’t like giving up picks to move up.”

So what should we make of this?

Firstly, it shouldn’t be seen as a shocking development. Schneider has often talked about being in ‘every deal’. If there was an attractive opportunity to pick first, why not take it? Especially if there’s a player you really want in this class. There’s no indication this is anything more than a tentative enquiry at this stage.

We know the Seahawks were interested in acquiring the #1 pick in 2018 with a view to selecting Josh Allen to replace Russell Wilson. They’ve also had some success trading up over the years. Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf and Jarran Reed were all taken after moving up. The Lockett deal in particular was very aggressive and was an inspired decision. The team also traded two first round picks for a safety — so being aggressive for a quarterback shouldn’t be seen as a grand departure.

Who might the Seahawks have their eye on if they were considering a trade?

Anthony Richardson is a reasonable shout — but not the only one. His incredible upside and athleticism will certainly appeal to Schneider. If he was willing to take Allen with the first pick, he might see Richardson in the same light.

Remember — Josh Allen was the third quarterback taken in 2018 after Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. It would’ve been quite the headline had Schneider traded Wilson, acquired the top pick and selected the raw but physically gifted Allen. Darnold was typically considered the consensus #1 — just like C.J. Stroud and Bryce Young are now.

People might react badly to such a move but we have to understand Schneider’s background. He loves traits. Pete Carroll is also a fan of athletic upside. The whole system in Seattle is predicated on an ability to compete and develop. I’m sure Carroll looks at Richardson and believes he can work with such a profile. There’s a sparkle of magic around Richardson as we saw at the combine. Carroll is keenly aware of that.

It’s also interesting to note Geno Smith’s words yesterday, speaking of his willingness to help a quarterback if Seattle drafts one. He almost sounded resigned to the prospect of having to compete for his job — perhaps not this year but in the future. The structure of his contract, to be fair, makes that a fact.

The Seahawks have done a tremendous job with the deal. They can create the ideal situation we’ve talked about so much — an Alex Smith-to-Patrick Mahomes style torch passing. Everything is set up to draft Richardson, who would benefit more than anyone from a redshirt year to bring out his incredible potential.

Here’s what La Canfora says about the QB’s in general:

The scouting community, for what it’s worth, continues to buzz about the Texans being particularly smitten with Young and the Colts being enamored with Levis. The Carolina Panthers, who pick ninth, are fixated on drafting one of those four quarterbacks, while the Atlanta Falcons (eighth), for all of their purported devotion to second-year signal caller Desmond Ridder, are viewed by other franchises as probable to select a quarterback as well. The Raiders (seventh), meantime, have to add to their quarterback room in a big way. If that doesn’t involve a veteran like Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo or Lamar Jackson, then it most certainly will involve one taken in the first round of the draft.

I wouldn’t assume the Seahawks, if they did move up, would do it just for the insane upside of Richardson. I get a sense Schneider will be a big fan of Will Levis. If the Colts are ‘enamored’ with him as JLC’s sources suggest, that could be motivation itself to move up. If the Texans and Cardinals are unwilling trade partners and you fear Indianapolis at #4 — the way to guarantee your man is to get to #1.

That would be seen as a highly controversial pick by many but again, people would’ve said the same about Allen in 2018. Let’s not forget Levis’ background in Seattle’s offensive scheme playing for Liam Coen. It’s not often you get to watch a college quarterback playing in your actual scheme before he turns pro. He also has incredible physical talent and the traits, again, that Schneider covets.

On C.J. Stroud — it’s worth mentioning how ‘Mahomes-esque’ his performance was against Georgia. We all know Schneider was very interested in Mahomes in 2017. As with Levis and Richardson, Stroud has fantastic character and he’s no slouch as a physical specimen. If they did move up, the three quarterbacks would be a serious option.

The final point I’d make is not to rule out the Seahawks moving up for Will Anderson.

The way the defense played last season (and let’s be honest, the last few seasons) left a mark on Carroll. With Jalen Carter’s legal issues almost certainly taking him out of consideration for Seattle, there’s really only Anderson left as someone with the potential to be an impactful defender in the top-five.

With the Cardinals (and as noted in my mock draft yesterday, potentially the Texans) ready to select Anderson — the only shot Seattle has is to move up.

I’m not convinced Anderson has the bend and twitch to be a dominant game-wrecker off the edge. However, I also think he’s tremendously low-risk. At worst, he’s not going to flame out provided he avoids any unfortunate injuries. He will be a contributor, just possibly more on a Bradley Chubb level than a Nick Bosa.

This quote from a NFC Executive in Lance Zierlein’s scouting report is also telling:

“Power Five players with traits who get sacks in college are going to get sacks in the pros. Anderson is way more likely to succeed than any of these quarterbacks (in the draft). It’s not even close.”

Although I suspect Schneider views the quarterbacks more positively than that — the Seahawks might see Anderson as a future star and the answer to their problems on defense.

It’s also worth noting what a tremendous character Anderson is. For a coach like Carroll who focuses so much on culture, he’d be drafting an immediate heart of the locker room and a future captain.

The short shuttle is the key to determining his upside. It’s hard to read much into Anderson’s combine considering he only ran a forty yard dash and did on-field drills. His forty and ten-yard split are unspectacular in isolation. We really need to know how explosive he is (vertical, broad) and what his short shuttle is.

As you can see below — elite edge rushers typically excel in the short shuttle:

Von Miller — 4.53 (1.62) at 246lbs (4.06 ss)
T.J. Watt — 4.69 (1.59) at 252lbs (4.13 ss)
Nick Bosa — 4.79 (1.62) at 266lbs (4.14 ss)
Joey Bosa — 4.77 (1.68) at 269lbs (4.21ss)
Khalil Mack — 4.65 (1.53) at 251lbs (4.18 ss)
Myles Garrett — 4.64 (1.63) at 272lbs (DNR ss)
Will Anderson — 4.60 (1.61) at 253lbs (DNR ss)

If he runs in the 4.1-4.2 range like the names above, that will be a serious indicator that he actually does have the potential to be something special.

Whoever the target is, I’m all for the Seahawks ‘paying the iron price’ (as someone put it on one of my recent live streams) if there’s a player they really want. Having the #5 pick is cool but you’re in the hands of four other teams. They’ll never be this close to the #1 pick — with ample stock to move up without impacting future drafts.

The Bears might be prepared to take a lesser deal to stay in the top-five, too.

However — with four appealing quarterbacks and Anderson — you can easily make the case that they’re better off letting this play out and protecting #20, #38 and #53 (especially if Bryce Young is going to go as high as everyone says, meaning one of the other three QB’s will last to you). There’s still no harm in asking the question and staying in touch with the Bears just in case.

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Why I don’t think Tyree Wilson is a good fit for Seattle

The Seahawks sat with the #3 pick for a long time. Long enough, one imagines, to start dreaming about what was possible.

Their views probably align with the consensus. There are two excellent defensive linemen available — the best players in a draft lacking blue-chip talent.

Jalen Carter and Will Anderson were within reach. Here was an opportunity to fill a big need and get what they’ve seemingly craved for so long — an impact defender worthy of a very high first round pick.

Then the final weekend of the season happened. Seattle dropped from #3 to #5. Issues emerged over Carter’s maturity before he was charged with racing in a fatal crash that killed two people. The Seahawks have placed too much emphasis on character and how it was critical to the success of their 2022 class to think Carter will be a consideration in round one.

Anderson, meanwhile, is likely out of reach.

Many mock drafts have simply resorted to placing Tyree Wilson at #5. Has anyone actually considered his fit? Yes, he has amazing size and length. These are traits Seattle covets. Yet at 6-5 and 271lbs, that isn’t the frame for a 3-4 defensive end or a 3-4 outside linebacker. He is very much a traditional DE for a 4-3 scheme.

Anderson is an outside linebacker in the 3-4 while Carter equally fits the defensive front. Where do you place Wilson or for that matter, Myles Murphy?

Just look at Seattle’s roster for evidence of this:

Shelby Harris — 6-2, 288lbs
Quinton Jefferson — 6-4, 291lbs
Bryan Mone — 6-4, 345lbs
Al Woods — 6-3, 330lbs
Boye Mafe — 6-4, 261lbs
Uchenna Nwosu — 6-2, 251lbs
Darrell Taylor — 6-4, 267lbs
Tyreke Smith — 6-3, 255lbs
Alton Robinson — 6-3, 259lbs

These players fit the size-ideals for nose tackle, 3-4 DE or 3-4 OLB. Darrell Taylor is the closest in terms of size to Tyree Wilson — but Taylor is a long, lean, super-athletic EDGE. Wilson is not someone you would compare to Taylor as a player. He’s bigger and more powerful compared to the quick, twitchy Taylor.

It’s not even clear Taylor is a long-term fit for Seattle anyway. They’ve added Mafe, Nwosu and Smith in the last 12 months. They’re all between 251-261lbs.

Unfortunately I think the option of adding a ‘defensive stud’ in the top-five has all but evaporated. Irrespective of anything to do with the quarterbacks — I suspect Anderson is still the top player in Seattle’s eyes. I just can’t imagine a scenario where he lasts to #5. Someone in the top-three will take him. He was simply too impactful at Alabama and with an A+ character he’ll be seen as a culture-setter.

When you listen to people speak who are well connected or you read articles like Mike Sando’s GM mock draft on the Athletic, a consensus top-three appears to be emerging. In whatever order, C.J. Stroud, Will Anderson and Bryce Young seem destined to be selected to begin the 2023 draft — unless a team has truly bought into Anthony Richardson-mania.

When Carroll spoke on 710 Seattle Sports this week, he made reference to the ease in which you can predict the top of round one. Well, most people are predicting Stroud, Young and Anderson to be the top-three.

If I’m right that Tyree Wilson might be viewed as a not-ideal scheme fit for Seattle, I think you’re left with the following options:

1. Take a quarterback
Too many people are projecting their own views on these quarterbacks and not enough people are stopping to think about the man making the pick. Will Levis and Anthony Richardson are so aligned with what John Schneider has sought in the past. Big, prototype size. Fantastic arm strength. Huge hands. High football character and intelligence. If he was willing to trade peak-Russell Wilson in 2018 for Josh Allen, I don’t see why he wouldn’t be excited about taking Levis or Richardson at #5. Richardson is even more physically impressive than Allen and arguably has fewer growing pains to work through. Levis, for a long time, has felt like exactly what Schneider wants in a QB prospect. Plus, he’s played in Seattle’s scheme under Liam Coen and thrived.

2. Trade down
If they aren’t interested in the quarterbacks (and again, I have a hard time imagining that purely because of Schneider’s QB history) — then trading down is probably the most likely option if Anderson is gone. They won’t trade down and give someone else a QB they like so this will 100% come down to them simply not being interested. I doubt they would get a ‘haul’ unless they trade down with a team place between Tennessee (#11) and Tampa Bay (#19). Do you really want to trade down that far? After all these years of complaining about picking later on, you’re going to trade down into that range again? To let someone else draft a QB they want badly enough to move up? That would take some balls. Seattle’s front office has balls — but I think they’ll like Levis and Richardson.

3. Make a surprise pick
The Seahawks have sprung plenty of surprises before. If they really didn’t like the quarterbacks and if an intriguing trade offer wasn’t forthcoming, sticking and picking could be thrust upon them. The only two names I think I could imagine being ‘surprise’ picks are Bijan Robinson and Peter Skoronski. They both kind of fit but a running back or guard at #5 would be quite a thing.

There’s one other thing to consider here. The players I have the Seahawks taking at #20 and #38 fit Seattle’s defensive scheme perfectly. There will be opportunities to address defense in the first two rounds even if they go in a different direction at #5.

Explaining my Texans pick at #2

As you’ll see in the mock, Houston selects Will Anderson with the second pick. Everyone is predicting a quarterback at #2. That is obviously highly possible.

However, a few points to mention. Firstly, DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco because he had a dominant defensive line. The Texans don’t have that. Adding Anderson, with the hope he can be a similar X-factor to Nick Bosa, would be a start. It’s also worth noting that as a player, Ryans was a celebrated leader and tone-setter. Anderson is exactly the same kind of character.

Bobby Slowik was appointed offensive coordinator from the 49ers. He will introduce an offensive scheme in Houston that enabled Brock Purdy to excel. They run a system that has allowed a certain type of QB to succeed — typically a non-celebrated QB.

GM Nick Caserio also has a background with the Patriots. They have often drafted a ‘type’ of quarterback to fit a mentality or scheme. He also has a connection to Jimmy Garoppolo. Could he sign Jimmy G as a bridge — someone who knows the offensive system — then draft someone like Stetson Bennett, Hendon Hooker or Aidan O’Connell later on? It feels like a plan you can imagine the Patriots taking on.

So sure — they might draft a big-name QB and go from there. I just think there’s at least a chance they take Anderson at #2.

The trades explained

Carolina moves up to #1
Owner David Tepper has made it clear he doesn’t want to settle at quarterback and he’s been plotting a big move for some time. I suspect they are almost certain to be the ones who make the trade up. The Colts are guaranteed a QB at #4 and the Panthers feel like they’re one player away. I can imagine Frank Reich giving Stroud his seal of approval and the two major players in Carolina shaking hands on a plan to pick first overall. The compensation is their 2024 and 2025 first rounders, plus the #40 pick this year.

Las Vegas moves up to #3
If Will Anderson is on the board at #3 I think the Cardinals will take him. Otherwise, I think they’ll look to trade down. The Raiders need a future at the position and will have to move up from #7 to get to the top-four QB’s. They surrender their 2024 first round pick and the #39 pick this year.

Round one

#1 Carolina (v/CHI) — CJ Stroud (QB, Ohio State)
David Tepper is on the record saying he wants special at the position. Stroud has that potential and he’ll likely get Frank Reich’s seal of approval.

#2 Houston — Will Anderson (EDGE, Alabama)
Everyone assumes they’ll go quarterback. DeMeco Ryans succeeded in San Francisco due to the D-line. GM Nick Caserio is from the Patriots way of doing things and they’ve always been happy to draft for scheme fit later. Anderson’s A+ character and talent could tempt the Texans to launch their new era with a different approach here.

#3 Las Vegas (v/ARI) — Bryce Young (QB, Alabama)
The Raiders need someone who can realistically compete to start and I think they’ll be a draft-day trader to get up and secure a QB. Young would be a good fit for Josh McDaniels and the Belichick coaches always pay attention to the Nick Saban players.

#4 Indianapolis — Will Levis (QB, Kentucky)
Why Levis over Richardson? The Colts need the player who is better equipped to start right away. I think they’re less likely to trade up with four QB options on the board.

#5 Seattle — Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
There simply isn’t a game-changing, sure-fire defensive player available which makes this a much easier decision than it could’ve been. The Seahawks have set up the perfect situation where Richardson can redshirt behind Geno Smith. John Schneider loved Josh Allen and Richardson has similar physical talent and flaws to work on. If the Colts had taken Richardson instead, I would’ve selected Will Levis here.

#6 Detroit (v/LA) — Peter Skoronski (G, Northwestern)
Skoronski is one of the most explosive players to enter the NFL in years. He’s a safe, solid pick that aligns with the mentality and culture in Detroit.

#7 Arizona (v/LV) — Tyree Wilson (DE, Texas Tech)
The Cardinals trade down and take Wilson — who is a much better fit as a 4-3 end for Jonathan Garrett than he is trying to fit in as a 3-4 DE at 271lbs.

#8 Atlanta — Bijan Robinson (RB, Texas)
GM Terry Fontenot is big on a ‘best player available’ approach and that’s Bijan Robinson here.

#9 Chicago (v/CAR) — Darnell Wright (T, Tennessee)
The Bears trade down eight spots and decide their best move is to draft the top tackle in the class.

#10 Philadelphia (v/NO) — Christian Gonzalez (CB, Oregon)
He’s gritty and competitive and showed at the combine he has plenty of athletic quality too.

#11 Tennessee — Michael Mayer (TE, Notre Dame)
He’s becoming underrated. A complete tight end who ran faster than anyone expected. One of the safest picks in the draft.

#12 Houston (v/CLE) — Zay Flowers (WR, Boston College)
The Texans decide to add an explosive, dynamic chess piece for their offense.

#13 NY Jets — Paris Johnson Jr (T, Ohio State)
The Jets need a longer term fixture at left tackle, whoever the quarterback is.

#14 New England — Joey Porter Jr (CB, Penn State)
Great character and maturity, NFL bloodlines — Porter Jr is another very safe, solid pick in this slot.

#15 Green Bay — Jalen Carter (DT, Georgia)
I have no idea how this situation will play out — but there were already doubts about Carter’s maturity before the legal issues emerged.

#16 Washington — Devon Witherspoon (CB, Illinois)
This fills a need and Witherspoon’s sparky on-field demeanour and hitting matches the Ron Rivera defense.

#17 Pittsburgh — Deonte Banks (CB, Maryland)
By running the way he did at his size, then performing well during drills, he cemented a top-20 placing.

#18 Detroit — D.J. Turner (CB, Michigan)
The cornerback run continues. Turner ran the fastest forty at the combine and he loves to play run support. He’ll work for Dan Campbell.

#19 Tampa Bay — Luke Musgrave (TE, Oregon State)
This could be an area where need meets BPA. Musgrave is such a glider as a runner. At his size, it’s impressive. And he can block.

#20 Seattle — Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
At 6-5 and 285lbs (with 34-inch arms), White is ideally placed to play DE in Seattle’s scheme. He’s a potential difference-maker for the defensive front and he flashed rare quickness for a man his size at the Senior Bowl.

#21 Miami — forfeited
Naughty Dolphins.

#22 LA Chargers — Calijah Kancey (DT, Pittsburgh)
Brandon Staley led the #1 defense in the league when he had Aaron Donald. He might be willing to take a chance to find out just how close Kancey is to Donald.

#23 Baltimore — Lukas Van Ness (DE, Iowa)
Not starting for Iowa might temper some of the testing stock but he’s an athlete with good size.

#24 Minnesota — Myles Murphy (DE, Clemson)
They need a cornerback but the early run goes against them so they settle on the overrated with upside Murphy — who had a disappointing 2022 season.

#25 Jacksonville — Quentin Johnston (WR, TCU)
The Jaguars need someone with Johnston’s frame and speed.

#26 NY Giants — Jaxson Smith-Njigba (WR, Ohio State)
I still think a lack of long speed keeps him out of the top-25.

#27 Dallas — Josh Downs (WR, North Carolina)
The Cowboys want to be more explosive on offense and Downs is flying under the radar in the media. He’s a fantastic player.

#28 Buffalo — Brian Branch (S, Alabama)
With Jordan Poyer saying on the NFL Network during the combine he fancies playing somewhere warmer, the Bills might take his replacement here.

#29 Cincinnati — Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah)
An already dynamic offense gets even scarier. Keep adding weapons.

#30 New Orleans (v/DEN, SF) — Darnell Washington (TE, Georgia)
If you can run a 4.08 short shuttle at 265lbs you’ll go in the first round.

#31 Philadelphia — Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State)
McDonald is light but so dynamic working the edge and would be a good addition to Philly’s rotation.

#32 Kansas City — Adetomiwa Adebawore (DE, Northwestern)
The Chiefs love to draft dynamic athletes who test well and nobody tested better than Adebawore at the combine.

Round two

#33 Pittsburgh (v/CHI) — Jordan Addison (WR, USC)
An obvious fit given his familiarity with Kenny Pickett.

#34 Houston — Bryan Bresee (DT, Clemson)
The defensive line rebuild continues. Load it up for DeMeco Ryans, try to recreate what you had with the 49ers.

#35 Arizona — Dawand Jones (T, Ohio State)
They have big needs across the offensive line and Jones would be a plug-in right tackle.

#36 Indianapolis — Jalin Hyatt (WR, Tennessee)
The Colts’ offense lacks explosive play ability and that’s what Hyatt brings with his late acceleration to separate downfield.

#37 LA Rams — Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, Alabama)
At some point someone is going to just feel like Gibbs is too good not to take.

#38 Seattle (v/DEN) — Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
A massive, long-armed, super-athletic nose tackle who can be the future anchor for Seattle’s D-line with enough physical quality to be more than just a space-eater.

#39 Arizona (v/LV) — Tuli Tuipulotu (DE, USC)
They get this pick from the Raiders for trading down. Tuli’s brother plays for the Eagles and he could be a Brandon Graham-type presence for Jonathan Gannon.

#40 Chicago (v/CAR) — Broderick Jones (G, Georgia)
This is one of the picks they received from the Panthers for moving off the #1 pick. This could be a trench-heavy draft for the Bears and after selecting a long-term fixture at right tackle, now they improve the interior.

#41 New Orleans — Keeanu Benton (DT, Wisconsin)
They need someone to anchor the interior D-line and Benton fits the bill.

#42 Tennessee — Cedric Tillman (WR, Tennessee)
They just need more weapons. After taking a tight end with their top pick, they now add another outside threat.

#43 Cleveland — Drew Sanders (LB, Arkansas)
This is a need for the Browns. It was disappointing not to see Sanders test at the combine and for that reason, I’m going to move him down a bit.

#44 NY Jets — Joe Tippmann (C, Wisconsin)
Joe Douglas likes explosive athletes on his offensive line and Tippmann is a better fit than John Michael Schmitz or Luke Wypler. Nathaniel Hackett ran an offense with Josh Myers at center and that’s who Tippmann compares to.

#45 Atlanta — Derick Hall (DE, Auburn)
Pass rush remains an issue for the Falcons and Hall can be a tone-setter in the locker room too.

#46 Green Bay — Tucker Kraft (TE, South Dakota State)
If the Jordan Love era is coming, he’ll need weapons.

#47 New England — Nolan Smith (LB, Georgia)
He’s just such a tweener. Yes he tested brilliantly and he’s an A+ character guy — but it’ll take a certain team/scheme to select him. People are making a size comparison to Haason Reddick but for me they are different players.

#48 Washington — Trenton Simpson (LB, Clemson)
Simpson had a disappointing 2022 season and he’s more of an athletic project at this point.

#49 Detroit — Zacch Pickens (DT, South Carolina)
He’s flying under the radar despite a good combine and Senior Bowl.

#50 Pittsburgh — Anton Harrison (T, Oklahoma)
Improving the O-line has to be a focal point for the Steelers.

#51 Tampa Bay — Cam Smith (CB, South Carolina)
This would be good value for a good football player.

#52 Miami — Kelee Ringo (CB, Georgia)
He’s big and fast but struggles on anything that isn’t a go-route.

#53 Seattle — Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)
It’s the perfect fit for scheme and player. Wypler has the wrestling background, the 4.53 short shuttle and the size the Seahawks want at the position. This feels like a great match, although they could also show interest in John Michael Schmitz.

#54 Chicago (v/BAL) — John Michael Schmitz (C, Minnesota)
The two center prospects come off the board back-to-back. This fills a big hole for the Bears.

#55 LA Chargers — Emmanuel Forbes (CB, Mississippi State)
He looked like a rake in shorts at the combine but his interception production is impressive.

#56 Detroit (v/MIN) — Sam LaPorta (TE, Iowa)
LaPorta showed off fantastic agility and quickness at the combine — traits that matter in the NFL.

#57 Jacksonville — B.J. Ojulari (EDGE, LSU)
He didn’t go through much testing in Indianapolis and it’s hard to get a read on his stock currently. Even so, he’s long, lean and high character.

#58 NY Giants — Julius Brents (CB, Kansas State)
Fantastic jumps, superb agility testing and A+ character (not to mention a great Senior Bowl) will push Brents high up many boards.

#59 Dallas — Tyjae Spears (RB, Tulane)
The Cowboys continue to target explosive offensive weapons and Spears compares favourably to Tony Pollard, who just received the franchise tag.

#60 Buffalo — Cody Mauch (G, North Dakota State)
I get the feeling Bills fans would love Mauch.

#61 Cincinnati — Darius Rush (CB, South Carolina)
They take cornerbacks who have pure speed and that’s what Rush showed at the combine, running a 4.36.

#62 Carolina (v/SF) — Jonathan Mingo (WR, Ole Miss)
I think he’s so underrated. Great size, soft hands, terrific Senior Bowl. What am I missing?

#63 Philadelphia — Zach Charbonnet (RB, UCLA)
He’s such an explosive, tough runner and he can carry the load on early downs — while also providing better than expected pass-catching qualities.

#64 Kansas City — Matthew Bergeron (T, Syracuse)
He could replace Orlando Brown at left tackle or kick inside to guard.

Seattle’s picks

#5 Anthony Richardson (QB, Florida)
#20 Keion White (DE, Georgia Tech)
#38 Mazi Smith (DT, Michigan)
#53 Luke Wypler (C, Ohio State)

Thoughts on Seattle’s picks

The commitment to the trenches continues and they add three key players for the future on the O-line and D-line.

Keion White has the perfect size (6-5, 285lbs, 34-inch arms) for their scheme. He can be a disruptive 3-4 DE and be moved around into different positions when they want to be creative. He would replace Quinton Jefferson in the rotation and provide more of a X-factor as a pass rusher, while offering the same level of size.

Mazi Smith is a huge nose tackle (6-3, 323lbs, 34-inch arms) but he was also #1 on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list in 2022. He didn’t test at the combine due to a hamstring tweak but he’s said to be able to run a 6.95 three cone, jump a 9-4 broad and a 33.5 inch vertical. Those are incredible numbers. He could come in and replace Bryan Mone as he recovers from injury, working with Al Woods before becoming his eventual heir. He’s used to battling in the BIG-10 and should provide immediate, competent snaps.

Luke Wypler said at the combine he’s already studying the Rams’ blocking scheme and compared himself to their center Brian Allen. In truth, he’s a far better athlete than Allen but he’s right to study LA’s scheme. He’s a perfect fit — and therefore he’s a perfect fit for Seattle. He has a wrestling background, he ran a 4.53 short shuttle (the same as Austin Blythe) and he was an explosive tester at the combine. It will almost be an upset if the Seahawks don’t draft one of Wypler or John Michael Schmitz given how well they fit the scheme.

Then there’s Richardson. It feels tailor-made for him to come to Seattle. In Carolina, Houston or Indianapolis there’s no obvious starter to allow him to have a full redshirt season. There’d be immediate fan pressure for him to play. It’d be ideal to sit him behind Geno smith and learn the offense. The upside potential of this is enormous and by 2024 or 2025 you’d be introducing him into an offense with D.K. Metcalf and Ken Walker, your bookend tackles will be experienced and who knows who else they could add by then? This feels like the perfect opportunity for player and team.

Let me know what you think in the comments section.

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For years we’ve been calculating explosive traits among offensive linemen using a formula called ‘TEF’. Tom Cable and Mike Solari utilised big, explosive testers. The formula allowed us to predict with a decent degree of accuracy which draft prospects the Seahawks might be interested in.

Since they switched blocking schemes, explosive traits are seemingly not as coveted as they once were. However, there’s clear evidence the league still values these traits extremely highly. After all, most of the top offensive linemen in the league are explosive testers, as I detailed in this article.

So this breakdown is going to be a little different this year. There’s little to glean from a Seahawks perspective but the chances are several of the top explosive testers boosted their draft grade.

Here’s the TEF formula explained…

Tom Cable stated in 2015 that an O-line prospect would ideally achieve a 31-inch vertical, a 9-foot broad jump and 27 reps in the bench press. TEF uses these numbers to create an overall score for each individual offensive lineman:

1. Vertical ÷ 31
2. Broad ÷ 9, then cube the result
3. Bench ÷ 27
4. Results added together = TEF

Here’s what the ideal (31 — 9 — 27) would look like using this formula:

1. Vertical: 31 ÷ 31 = 1
2. Broad: 9 ÷ 9 = 1, cubed = 1
3. Bench: 27 ÷ 27 = 1
4. Overall score = 3.00

A prospect achieving the exact Cable ideal (31 — 9 — 27) will score a 3.00 in TEF.

Confirmed TEF scores 2023

These results include the linemen who tested in the vertical, broad and bench at the combine — allowing us to create a confirmed TEF score.

Peter Skoronski — 3.37
Andrew Vorhees — 3.26
Anthony Bradford — 3.17
Jovaughan Gwyn — 3.17
Olu Oluwatimi — 3.07
Luke Wypler — 3.00
Nick Saldiveri — 2.97
Juice Scruggs — 2.95
Connor Galvin — 2.95
John Michael Schmitz — 2.81
John Ojukwu — 2.78
Steve Avila — 2.74
Jarrett Patterson — 2.71
McClendon Curtis — 2.70
Dalton Wagner — 2.52
O’Cyrus Torrence — 2.43
Alex Forsyth — 2.42
Mark Evans — 2.38

What does this tell us?

Peter Skoronski is a certain top-20 pick. The angle on Skoronski has always been his lack of length will kick him inside to guard — so how will he test to project upside and potential at the next level? You don’t typically draft a guard that early so you need a reason to do it. Technically he is competent, so what does the testing say?

We now know he’s the sixth most explosive lineman to enter the league since 2016. He is marginally more explosive than Zion Johnson (3.33) and Kolton Miller (3.31) and he’s a notch below Cole Strange (3.42) and Tristan Wirfs (3.47).

Johnson (17th), Miller (15th) and Wirfs (13th) were all top-20 picks. Strange, a late riser through the Senior Bowl and combine, was a surprising pick in round one by the Patriots (29th).

The best case scenario with Skoronski seemed to be he could turn into a Zack Martin level interior lineman — yet the reality is he’s a far more explosive athlete than Martin.

In a year lacking blue-chip players — especially on the offensive line — I think teams are going to seriously consider Skoronski between the #6 and #10 picks. There will likely be a feeling that with so few appealing options in that part of the draft, taking the most technically sound, explosive lineman available is something you can live with. It’ll be a safe pick.

As it happens, Detroit, Las Vegas, Atlanta and Philadelphia are in the market for a guard.

Elsewhere, there were fears Olu Oluwatimi would last deeper into the draft due to a lack of physical quality. As an explosive tester, Oluwatimi should safely see himself called in the middle rounds. His tape was good and now we know he is not limited as an athlete.

Luke Wypler’s stock will be enhanced by the fact he’s an explosive tester. Combined with an excellent 4.53 short shuttle — he’s quite the athlete. This could mean he not only interests the zone blocking teams like Seattle and Minnesota — he could also appeal to GM’s like Joe Douglas with the Jets who seem to prioritise explosive traits.

O’Cyrus Torrence’s TEF score is extremely poor. He has consistently been one of the most overrated players in this draft. He isn’t explosive in the slightest, as his 2.43 score suggests. Not only that, he ran a 4.81 short shuttle. This is the profile of a mid-rounder, not the first rounder many have suggested.

Projected TEF scores for 2023

For the players who didn’t complete a full set of tests (vertical, broad, bench) — we fill in the gaps using the ‘average’ of the class. For example, a lot of the linemen simply didn’t do the bench press. Therefore, I took the average number of reps per player at the combine (28) and used it to project a TEF score that can be adjusted if the player completes a full set of testing at his pro-day.

Blake Freeland — 3.60
Jon Gaines — 3.26
Jaelyn Duncan — 3.20
Ricky Stromberg — 3.17
Darnell Wright — 3.15
Sidy Sow — 3.13
Earl Bostick — 3.12
Tyler Steen — 3.11
Paris Johnson Jr — 3.07
Braeden Daniels — 3.05
Wanya Morris — 3.04
Cody Mauch — 3.01
Broderick Jones — 3.00
TJ Bass — 2.98
Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu — 2.90
Anton Harrison — 2.88
Ryan Hayes — 2.87
Matthew Bergeron — 2.84
Tashawn Manning — 2.77
Henry Bainivalu — 2.76
Jake Andrews — 2.72

If these scores hold up after the pro-days, this will be by far the most explosive O-line class we’ve seen in years. Compare this to previous combines:

2016 — 6
2017 — 3
2018 — 7
2019 — 8
2020 — 8
2021 — No combine
2022 — 9 (projection)
2023 – 19 (projection

I’ve never calculated and had double-figure numbers for explosive testers at a combine. To have potentially 19 explosive linemen this year is quite remarkable.

It might not mean much for the Seahawks and their scheme specifically but the NFL is likely to be ecstatic with the depth of this O-line class.

We also created a second calculation to account for the fact that jumping a vertical at 320lbs is considerably more challenging than jumping a vertical at 295lbs. Thus, we created a formula (weighted TEF or wTEF) to account for weight:

Weight x TEF x 0.1

We can give each player a score that sufficiently emphasises their unique size. For example:

Germain Ifedi — 324 x 2.97 x 0.1 = 96.1

Confirmed wTEF scores for 2023

Peter Skoronski — 105.5
Anthony Bradford — 105.2
Andrew Vorhees — 101.1
Jovaughan Gwyn — 97.3
Olu Oluwatimi — 94.9
Nick Saldiveri — 94.4
Steve Avila — 91.0
Luke Wypler — 90.9
Juice Scruggs — 88.8
McClendon Curtis — 87.5
Connor Galvin — 86.4
John Ojukwu — 85.9
John Michael Schmitz — 84.6
Jarrett Patterson — 82.9
Dalton Wagner — 80.6
O’Cyrus Torrence — 80.2
Alex Forsyth — 73.3
Mark Evans — 72.1

Anthony Bradford really caught my eye during on-field drills and a weighted TEF score of 105.2 confirms he has outstanding physical potential. He is certainly one to watch and could be a fantastic mid-round option at guard.

Andrew Vorhees’ ACL tear suffered at the combine is a horrible setback. With his testing numbers he likely would’ve been a day-two pick. I suspect, with his physical profile, someone will be prepared to take a chance on him a little bit later on and use a redshirt season.

This is another hugely disappointing score for O’Cyrus Torrence. Even a bad TEF tester will get a bump if they’re 330lbs. It really speaks to how poorly he performed that he’s still the third weakest tester despite his size. There’s no bump to account for his weight.

Projected weighted TEF for 2023

Blake Freeland — 108.7
Darnell Wright — 104.9
Sidy Sow — 101.1
Tyler Steen — 99.8
Jon Gaines — 98.8
Jaelyn Duncan — 97.9
Ricky Stromberg — 97.0
Earl Bostick — 96.4
Paris Johnson Jr — 96.1
TJ Bass — 94.5
Wanya Morris — 93.3
Broderick Jones — 93.3
Malaesala Aumavae-Laulu — 91.9
Cody Mauch — 90.9
Anton Harrison — 90.7
Tashawn Manning — 90.6
Matthew Bergeron — 90.3
Braeden Daniels — 89.7
Ryan Hayes — 85.5
Henry Bainivalu — 84.4
Jake Andrews — 83.0

If these numbers are confirmed, Darnell Wright is showing off why he’s a top-20 lock in this class. He had an outstanding on-field performance at the combine to go with his testing. He is one of the best players in the draft.

Several of the potential tackle-to-guard converts are showing they have a nice combination of power and size in this group. Sidy Sow is worth some tape study moving forward and players like Tyler Steen performed better than expected.

If you’re wondering about Dawand Jones — he didn’t do anything other than run a forty and on-field drills. I can’t project him a score at this time.

So there we go. It might not be as useful for Seahawks fans to know this information these days — but it’s still interesting that this is such an explosive O-line class. It might lack top-end stars but there’s plenty of depth.

Who might the Seahawks be interested in then?

They’ve clearly identified a type at center — Pete Carroll has talked about leverage (shorter height) being important. The signing of Austin Blythe was indicative of a switch to the Rams approach.

My ‘not so bold’ take is that one of Luke Wypler or John Michael Schmitz will be drafted, unless they address the position in free agency. They are clear scheme and profile hits — they have the size, the wrestling background and the agility testing. Check out my article on Monday for more on this.

Tackle is unlikely to be a key target area with Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas entering year two — and with Stone Forsyth and Jake Curhan under contract as backups.

Guard is an interesting one. By re-signing Phil Haynes they have retained two big, explosive interior starters. They haven’t automatically switched to LA’s preferred method of converted college tackles. If they stick with that — and with Damien Lewis and Haynes both free agents next year, they might draft one of the better testers above. Anthony Bradford, Nick Saldiveri and Jon Gaines could appeal.

If they go with LA’s philosophy, we’ll need more shuttle times to make a reading. Logan Bruss (4.55) and Austin Corbett (4.50) both tested well in the short shuttle. David Edwards less so (4.77).

Jon Ojukwu ran a 4.52 and was a tackle at Boise State, making 51 consecutive starts. He could be a day three candidate. They could consider Cody Mauch here if they’re ok with his lack of length (he ran a 4.55). Tyler Steen at Alabama ran a 4.59 and could be a very realistic option, as could Braeden Daniels at Utah (4.60).

I’d be intrigued to see what times Jordan McFadden, Matthew Bergeron, Ryan Hayes, Wanya Morris, T.J. Bass and Earl Bostick run if they do a short shuttle at their pro-days.

The other name I’m going to keep mentioning is Nick Broeker at Ole Miss. He ran a 4.70 so he’s more like Edwards than Bruss or Corbett. He just feels like an ideal scheme fit with his mobility, control, ability to lock-on to blocks and finish and he showed well in the SEC. I thought he had an excellent performance during on-field drills in Indianapolis. I also wonder if he could be a consideration at center.

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The details are out and we can now properly analyse Geno Smith’s contract extension with the Seahawks.

Mike Florio at Pro Football Talk provided this assessment:

The basic information suggests that the guarantee applies to all of 2023, with another $12 million guaranteed in 2024.

That makes it a two-year, $50 million deal (plus incentives). It also means the Seahawks could potentially move on after one season. They’d owe $12 million for 2024; possibly, he’d get that much (or close to it) on the open market, offsetting Seattle’s obligation.

The total breakdown will shed more light on the deal. For now, it’s not crazy to think that the contract makes it easy for the Seahawks to indeed use the fifth overall pick on a quarterback, who would sit for a year or two behind Smith — just as Smith did behind Russell Wilson.

From a Seahawks perspective, this is good news. There’s no long-term commitment, so they can get out of the deal next year if they wish. They’ve also hedged perfectly for the draft, meaning all options are on the table.

Smith has a financial incentive to succeed. If he leads the Seahawks to where they want to go — he will be rewarded. This deal dangles a significant carrot — providing even more motivation than the deal he had a year ago.

Great news for the team on all counts.

For the player, it’s also a win. I suspect the reason this has happened so soon after the combine is simple. Smith’s agents checked on his market in Indianapolis. It wasn’t that extensive. They’ve quickly agreed terms, avoiding the need for any drama that drags into free agency. This way, the Seahawks can plan accordingly to improve the roster next week.

Not only will this give Smith the best chance to succeed — he gets a nice pay rise from a year ago. He’d earned $17,446,078 in his career so far according to Spotrac. This new deal is a decent raise.

It was never realistic that Smith was going to get $30-40m after only one year of production, as he approaches his 33rd birthday. This is a fair offer.

People may question whether the Seahawks could’ve gone even further if his market was cold, by waiting until later in the year. Did they bid against themselves?

I don’t think that’s realistic. For starters, you have to consider optics. Smith performed above expectations in 2022. If the team essentially played hardball with him on a contract, what message would that send to other players?

‘Come and play in Seattle and if you play well enough to win ‘comeback player of the year’, we’ll fight you for every last dime!’

Now they can legitimately say to prospective free agents — ‘we reward success‘. That shouldn’t be underestimated the week before the market opens. Geno Smith will be a selling point for this team during free agency talks. ‘Come and be the next Geno‘ will be something the Seahawks can say with meaning.

Next point — they got a good deal. No, it’s not dirt cheap. But it’s also not expensive. This contract doesn’t appear to be that prohibitive ahead of free agency.

I’m also not sure there’s anyone you’d want to pay big money to available on the market, so what exactly would you be saving money for? The names I’m focusing on are people like A’Shawn Robinson, Zach Allen and Cole Holcomb — Uchenna Nwosu-level targets at a good age and a good price. Maybe Allen gets a decent wedge but we’re not talking about mega-millions here.

You’ve also bought some degree of loyalty I think from Smith. By doing him a solid here, he’s going to be more receptive if you spend the #5 pick on a quarterback. If you’d forced him into a long free agent process, which could’ve been quite humiliating if the market was weak, he’d already be pissed off. Now you’re saying, ‘we’ve looked after you, now we’ve got to get on with what we need to do‘. That might include drafting his eventual replacement. It’ll be easier for him to stomach, now that this deal is done with the minimum of fuss.

The final point is the benefit of having Smith if they do spend #5 on a quarterback. If you were starting Drew Lock or another cheaper veteran in 2023 — Sam Darnold for example — what happens if they struggle early in the season? The pressure to turn to the rookie would be intense. Any plans to redshirt the younger player would be ruined. Just look at Pittsburgh a year ago with Mitchell Trubisky.

If Lock struggled in the first month — fans would be chanting the name of the new guy. Or Geno Smith. It’d get toxic.

If Smith struggles that might happen anyway. But at least you’ve got someone who’s shown he can deliver to the extent that he’ll likely avoid any of this. The fans like Geno enough to be patient with him, allowing the young quarterback to learn.

That way — you can create what I’ve always thought was the best case scenario. You set up your own version of Alex Smith passing the torch to Patrick Mahomes.

Remember — the Chiefs were able to trade Smith for a third round pick and a player (Kendall Fuller). If Smith has a decent 2023 but the Seahawks want to go with the rookie in 2024, they might be able to work with Geno to send him somewhere he can start and get something back.

The deal gets a thumbs up from me. It works for all concerned. I think it sets the team up perfectly at #5 to consider drafting a quarterback or Will Anderson if he lasts (which I don’t think he will). Then you have #20, #38, #53 and #84 to add at other positions.

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Breaking: Geno Smith and the #Seahawks are finalizing a three-year contract extension worth $105M with the ability to earn $52M in the first calendar year, sources tell @theScore.

Smith earned Comeback Player of the Year and Pro Bowl honors after leading the NFL in completion %. pic.twitter.com/RbMMXJ6Uke

— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) March 6, 2023

Here are my thoughts…

The Seahawks made no secret of their desire to get this done and, like most people, I expected it would get done. Geno Smith is very popular in the locker-room. He had a career renaissance in 2022. This was the ideal place for him and the Seahawks clearly felt moving on, for the purpose of saving money and re-setting with another veteran at quarterback, wasn’t something they wanted to entertain.

I’d expect they’ll structure this contract with a low year-one cap hit to save cap space ahead of free agency. I’d also imagine there’s a reasonable out for the team. On the other side, Smith’s agent gets to contact the media and tell them he can earn $52M in the calendar year — a sum he’ll almost certainly never reach. They can talk about a $100m contract, when we’ll soon learn the reality of the deal. Either way, they can promote this as an amazing job on social media.

Nevertheless, Smith stays — so what happens now?

For me, very little changes. There will be an argument that this indicates the Seahawks will pass on the quarterbacks in round one and focus on defense.

That could be what they do but there’s a lot more to this.

No team ever wants to go into the draft showing their hand. It’s why the Bears signed Mike Glennon to a three-year, $45m contract in 2017 — announced him as ‘their guy’ at a big press conference — then a few weeks later traded up to #2 overall to draft Mitchell Trubisky.

The Seahawks have previous here too. They spent big money to acquire Matt Flynn in free agency — then duly replaced him with rookie Russell Wilson.

I’m not suggesting they re-signed Smith simply to play a game of ‘draft poker’ with the rest of the league. It’s one of the offshoots of the deal though. The predominant narrative will be — the Seahawks have their guy, they’re not going to draft a quarterback. I think they’ll be quite comfortable with other teams making that assumption.

It’s also important to hedge against scenarios that can go against you. Imagine if you let Smith walk because you’ve got your eye on a quarterback in the draft. Then the three you like are off the board before pick #5. You’re screwed.

Now they avoid any ‘worst case scenario’. They can let the board come to them at #5. If one of the top quarterbacks is available, they can take them if they wish and there’s no pressure to start that player in 2023. If they want to go defense, they can do. But they’re not desperately praying things go a certain way.

I’ve long argued the ideal situation is probably to mimic the Chiefs when they had Alex Smith under contract and drafted Patrick Mahomes. You take pressure off the rookie and have a starter good enough to avoid a weekly ‘put the new guy in’ debate in the media.

If they are planning to draft Anthony Richardson, they just set things up perfectly. He needs a redshirt year (and even embraced that himself during interviews at the combine). It’s OK saying they could’ve signed Drew Lock as a cheaper bridge. What happens if Lock struggles? The demand for Richardson to start before he’s ready would be intense. That risk is far less now they’ve retained Smith, who already has a year as the starter in the bag.

Or they can draft defense, which I’ve always said I’m comfortable with. Will Anderson is a good football player with an A+ character. You can make a strong case for taking him. I’m not convinced he’ll last to #5. I’m open-minded about Tyree Wilson depending on how he tests at his pro-day but I can’t lie — the idea of drafting another 23-year-old Big-12 defender in round one — with Seattle’s recent history of using first round picks on older Big-12 defenders (L.J. Collier, Jordyn Brooks) doesn’t fill me with much excitement.

That will be the media consensus in the aftermath of this news though. The Seahawks are going to go defense or trade down. Re-signing Geno has confirmed everything.

I remain unconvinced and think everything remains on the table.

I’ll end by linking to my piece from earlier, which had a whole section on why I think John Schneider will love the quarterbacks in this draft.

I’ll also offer this thought…

Does anyone really think Schneider, the GM who wanted to draft Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes when he had Russell Wilson, the GM who covets big, physical traits and upside — watched those quarterbacks in Indianapolis on Saturday and decided — ‘they’re not for me’?

I’m not buying that.

I think re-signing Geno Smith was always part of the plan — and it was never likely to have much impact on the #5 pick.

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The Seahawks will probably draft one of two centers

The blocking scheme they’ve adopted calls for a certain type of center — and Ohio State’s Luke Wypler is the perfect fit. In signing Austin Blythe a year ago Seattle made it clear they were seeking to emulate the Rams under new line-coach Andy Dickerson. Blythe was shorter with a lower centre of gravity for leverage purposes, he had great agility (short shuttle), a wrestling background and size around 6-2, 300lbs.

Wypler ticks every box. His short shuttle (the best of any center) was a 4.53 — the exact same as Blythe’s. He’s 6-2 1/2 and 303lbs. He wrestled in High School. At his combine press conference he was asked who he compares to in the league and without hesitation he said Brian Allen the current Rams center — noting he was perfectly suited to the scheme and had been studying it this off-season.

His personality also screams ‘John Schneider’. It’s hard to explain why, so just watch him speak. His sense of humour and character is right up Schneider’s street. I’m sure they’ll have also noted how well he played against Jalen Carter in the CFB playoffs — a game they’ll have no doubt been monitoring Carter.

There isn’t a player I’m more confident projecting to the Seahawks. It’s a perfect scheme, measurable and physical profile fit. I wouldn’t be surprised if they make sure they come away with Wypler by taking him a little bit earlier than the consensus for his stock. That could be with the #53 pick.

The only thing that gives me pause for thought is an alternative in John Michael Schmitz. He too has the same wrestling background. He’s 6-3 and 301lbs. His short shuttle was a 4.56. He’s also perfectly suited to this scheme. If they prefer Schmitz on tape — they could go with him instead. That is a distinct possibility.

Either way, my expectation has shifted after the combine. I’ve gone from thinking they might be inclined to invest in a veteran like Garrett Bradbury or Jake Brendel to solidify the position, to now thinking they’ll make sure they come out of this draft with one of Wypler or Schmitz. They are ideally suited and they’ll likely be available in a range where Seattle picks. I’d put decent money on one of these two landing with the Seahawks on day two of the draft.

The tight end class

Sometimes it’s hard to narrow things down to simply a name or two, you’ve got to list virtually a full class of players.

We’ve spent a lot of time over the years highlighting what the Seahawks like at tight end. Agility testing (short shuttle, three-cone) seems to be a big focus. Here are the players Seattle has drafted, signed or acquired in the Carroll/Schneider era:

Luke Willson — 4.29 (ss), 7.08 (3c)
Will Dissly — 4.40 (ss), 7.07 (3c)
Nick Vannett — 4.20 (ss), 7.05 (3c)
Anthony McCoy — 4.57 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Zach Miller — 4.42 (ss), 7.01 (3c)
Jimmy Graham — 4.45 (ss), 6.90 (3c)
Greg Olsen — 4.48 (ss), 7.04 (3c)
Colby Parkinson — 4.46 (ss), 7.15 (3c)
Gerald Everett — 4.33 (ss), 6.99 (3c)
Noah Fant — 4.22 (ss), 6.81 (3c)

I branched out this year to include a trend that involves 10-yard splits. It seems the top tight ends in the modern NFL all excel in the splits and short shuttle:

Rob Gronkowski — 1.58 (10), 4.47 (ss)
Travis Kelce — 1.61 (10), 4.42 (ss)
George Kittle — 1.59 (10), 4.55 (ss)
Mark Andrews — 1.54 (10), 4.38 (ss)
Dallas Goedert — unknown (10), 4.31 (ss)
Zach Erz — 1.64 (10), 4.47 (ss)
T.J. Hockenson — 1.63 (10), 4.18 (ss)
David Njoku — 1.61 (10), 4.34 (ss)

The 2023 tight end class has several players who tested as well as the names above. Only seven individuals ran a short shuttle and these were the results (I’ve included their 10-yard splits too):

Darnell Washington — 1.57 (10), 4.08 (ss)
Zack Kuntz — 1.57 (10), 4.12 (ss)
Sam LaPorta — 1.59 (10), 4.25 (ss)
Luke Schoonmaker — 1.59 (10), 4.27 (ss)
Tucker Kraft — 1.59 (10), 4.29 (ss)
Brayden Willis — DNR (10), 4.36 (ss)
Brenton Strange — 1.57 (10), 4.46 (ss)

LaPorta also ran a blistering 6.91 three-cone, with Kraft running a 7.08.

There are other players who ran excellent splits — Luke Musgrave (1.54), Will Mallory (1.59), Davis Allen (1.60), Payne Durham (1.61) and Josh Whyle (1.62) — who didn’t run a short shuttle. We might be able to add them to the list if they do agility testing at their pro-day.

I appreciate tight end isn’t an immediate need but you’re not always drafting for the here and now. Noah Fant and Colby Parkinson are both free agents next year. Drafting a tight end in a good TE class, with an eye to the future, makes sense. Especially when there are players available on day two who have physical attributes comparable to the best in the league.

Players like LaPorta and Schoonmaker could be attractive in the round three range. Tucker Kraft will likely go in round two. After his testing performance on Saturday, don’t be surprised if Darnell Washington goes a lot earlier than people think. T.J. Hockenson went in the top-10 after running a 4.18 short shuttle at 251lbs. Washington ran his 4.08 at 264lbs — and ran a faster forty (4.64 vs 4.70) and 10-yard split (1.57 vs 1.64). He could easily be a top-20 pick.

I’ll also highlight Michael Mayer at this point. He is an exceptional player with 10/10 character and attitude. He’s a complete tight end. I’m not sure whether a 1.66 10-yard split will get anyone excited (and he didn’t do any agility testing) but if he’s available at #20 — I think you have to consider him purely based on talent.

The three quarterbacks

I asked this question yesterday and I’m going to ask it again today.

How is John Schneider not coming out of the draft with one of Anthony Richardson, Will Levis or C.J. Stroud?

We know Schneider loves traits. It’s public knowledge that he coveted Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes — even when he had prime Russell Wilson.

Wilson himself had excellent traits (big arm, athletic). Schneider traded a lot to acquire Charlie Whitehurst (big arm, athletic) and was willing to take on Drew Lock when he dealt Wilson to Denver (big arm, athletic).

All of these players carried question marks. Schneider focused on talent and potential. At no point was he swayed by perceived flaws.

It’s easy to forget today because Allen and particularly Mahomes have turned into two of the best players in the NFL — but at draft time they were both considered risky project types.

Here’s an article on NFL.com written by Lance Zierlein, discussing Allen during the 2017 college football season:

The scoop: “He scares me like he scares everyone, but he is easily the most physically talented quarterback (in this class). He will get drafted much higher than the level of his tape.” — AFC director of college scouting on Wyoming QB Josh Allen

The skinny: Listed at 6-foot-5, 233 pounds and with high-end arm talent, Allen is the prototype at the quarterback position. However, Allen’s production has been very pedestrian this season (181 yards passing per game, 55.9 percent completion rate, 12 TDs and 6 INTs in 8 games).

His accuracy and decision making are not where they need to be. In comparison, Carson Wentz had very similar physical traits and ability coming out of North Dakota State. He was the No. 2 overall selection of the 2016 draft, but his accuracy and football intelligence were exceptionally high. Coincidentally, Allen’s coach (Craig Bohl) helped groom Wentz at NDSU before being hired at Wyoming.

Allen might make a substantial leap forward with better talent surrounding him than what he’s working with at Wyoming. However, I’m not ready to say he’s a franchise quarterback at this juncture.

“He scares everyone” is the kind of thing you might hear about Anthony Richardson and Will Levis. Ditto the production, accuracy and decision making concerns and the feeling they aren’t ready.

As it happens, Allen’s physical talent was so enormous that he simply rose to the NFL occasion after a two-year learning curve. He has made the Bills a legitimate team after years of mediocrity and is beloved by fans.

With Mahomes, I noted a similar pre-draft sentiment in this article in December:

Patrick Mahomes wasn’t even listed in Daniel Jeremiah’s top-50 prospects in his February list ahead of the 2017 draft. That wouldn’t be so bad — but in an updated version in April, Mahomes still wasn’t listed in the top-50.

Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions.

In Jeremiah’s April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one — at #27 overall. Deshaun Watson wasn’t included in the first frame. They ended up being the #10 and #12 picks respectively.

Mahomes himself revealed he was given a second round grade by the draft committee.

The excellent Lance Zierlein graded Mahomes at a 6.30 — a lower grade than Drew Lock (6.40). In his report, Zierlein noted:

“Mahomes will be a work in progress, but he’s a high ceiling, low floor prospect.”

These are two players who, by all accounts, Schneider loved. They were flawed but they had supreme physical talent. And he wanted them.

Anthony Richardson is 6-4 and 244lbs with 10 1/2 inch hands. He ran a 4.43 forty (second only to RGIII for a quarterback since 2003). He had a 40.5 inch vertical and a 10-9 broad jump (both new records). He is uniquely gifted as a physical talent with the potential to be a ‘face of the NFL’ type player. He does things on a football field barely anyone else can do.

Will Levis is 6-4 and 229lbs. He jumped a 34-inch vertical and a 10-4 broad. He has unbelievable 10 5/8 inch hands. He possesses a cannon arm and like Richardson, has plays on tape that most other humans simply cannot do:

Will Levis & Anthony Richardson can do things most QB’s can’t.

The draft is about projection. We’ll see today why both are worthy of the #5 pick. Seattle will be lucky if either is there.

The video below, on Levis, highlights this #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/HdoWAJJLyu

— Rob Staton (@robstaton) March 4, 2023

C.J. Stroud is 6-3 and 214lbs with 10 inch hands. He might not have the extreme physical tools like Richardson and Levis — yet he still has a strong arm, he throws with complete control and his touch passing (short and long range) is the best we’ve seen in college football since I started writing the blog in 2008. His performance against Georgia was an absolute masterclass and it’s not unfair to suggest it was ‘Mahomes-esque’.

There’s one other thing to mention — all three players have outstanding character.

I cannot stress how rare it is to have three players like this in the same draft class. For all the hand-wringing about the flaws with this trio — not enough time is being dedicated to their massive upside. Whisper it quietly — but we could be seeing the next Allen, Justin Herbert and Mahomes entering the league.

I can’t believe for a second that Schneider — with his history of quarterbacks — isn’t looking at these three and feeling, with this rare opportunity, he has to have one of them. They basically look like three made-to-order quarterbacks specifically for Seattle’s GM. The idea he’s going to say ‘no thanks — give me an expensive Geno and another first round Big-12 defender instead’ just doesn’t compute.

I know it’s a taboo subject for many fans who won’t hear anything other than ‘Geno Smith is the guy’. If you’re in that camp — humour me for one moment. Schneider was seemingly willing to move on from prime Russell Wilson — in his peak — to draft Mahomes in 2017. He was willing to trade Wilson in 2018 to select Allen as a replacement.

Further to that — they paid Matt Flynn a handsome contract (by 2012 standards) to be the starter. Then they drafted Russell Wilson and basically gave him the keys, rendering the investment in Flynn a total waste. It was a ruthless, aggressive move.

Do you honestly think he won’t be prepared to pass on paying Geno Smith a fortune to draft a quarterback he loves? Or at least structure a deal that creates a ‘bridge’ environment, rather than fully commit to Geno and ignore the quarterbacks who perfectly fit the Schneider prototype?

The idea that when presented with a top-five pick for the first time ever — with three quarterbacks who appear to suit Schneider down to the ground — he’s going to say, ‘nope — we have a journeyman who turns 33 this year who had one good season, so now we’re going to ignore these QB’s and build around him’. That seems fanciful.

Mike Sando conducted an ‘insider’ mock draft for the Athletic. Anthony Richardson was placed at #5 to Seattle:

“Seattle might take a quarterback,” an exec who has competed against Seattle in the NFC West said.

If that were the case, who might the Seahawks like?

“Probably Anthony Richardson — big, athletic guy who can run,” this exec reasoned.

Levis would also be available under this scenario.

“I like Anthony Richardson better than Levis, and I don’t think I’m the only GM who feels this way,” a GM said.

“I could see (Seahawks GM) John (Schneider) liking Richardson a lot,” another GM said. “He hasn’t started much and didn’t really carry his team but is a freak talent.”

The problem, of course, is all three QB’s could be off the board by #5.

Which begs the question — are the Seahawks willing to be aggressive?

A commenter on our YouTube stream on Sunday suggested the Seahawks should strike to go and get their man. They called for Schneider to ‘pay the iron price’ to do what it takes. Trade up.

Is he prepared to?

I don’t think it’s as unrealistic as people think. The Seahawks are an aggressive team for the most part. If they left Indianapolis feeling like ‘we have to have one of these guys’ then I don’t think it’s far-fetched that they’ll see it like this:

1. When are we going to be picking fifth overall again, making it easier to move up because we can offer a top-five pick in return?

2. When are we going to have the 2023 stock to make it less painful to trade up, meaning we don’t have to mortgage the future?

3. How much is it going to cost to trade up from the #15-20 spot if we need to get a QB in 2024 or 2025 and we’re not in the top-10, without the extra picks we have now?

4. When are we ever going to have a draft class with three ‘Schneider prototypes’ sitting there at the top of round one?

5. Having picks is great but the key is also to have outstanding players. If we think these QB’s can be outstanding players, why not go and get one? Especially when you see the impact of having an exceptional QB and how that has transformed teams like Buffalo and Cincinnati — two perennial bottom-feeders.

6. Can you make an argument that a return of Charles Cross, Boye Mafe, a potential franchise QB, Shelby Harris, Noah Fant and Drew Lock is a good return on the Wilson trade? Having #20 and #38 is great — but is that haul sufficient to say ‘job done’? If you turn Wilson into a franchise QB, a left tackle and a pass rusher, plus some veterans — isn’t that all you can ask for?

7. What’s more likely to get you to greatness? Being bold for one of these QB’s, building around them and having extra money to spend on defense? Or is it paying Geno Smith $30-35m and hoping, aged 33, he can play at a consistently good level for the foreseeable future — while having less to spend on the rest of the roster, hoping that you can draft a great team around him while picking in the teens and 20’s?

This is all a moot-point if one of the three physical phenoms lasts to #5. That’s not too far fetched. Bryce Young could still be one of the top-two quarterbacks drafted. It would only take one team to draft Young in the top-four, plus it would require either Chicago or Arizona sticking in that range and selecting a defender for one of Richardson, Stroud or Levis to reach the fifth pick.

Trading up takes away the mystery though. You can proceed without concern or anxiety. You can plan accordingly through free agency.

I’m not suggesting it should happen — simply that I think it’s a conversation worth having post-combine.

The counter-argument is whether you can live with a ‘worst-case scenario’. That sounds negative — but a worst case scenario isn’t actually all that troublesome. If Richardson, Levis and Stroud go in the top-four, you’re still guaranteed one of Young, Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson.

Anderson is a good player with exceptional character. Wilson has interesting traits. Young is wonderfully gifted but the concerns about his size are legit. None of these players are in the same bracket as Richardson, Levis and Stroud for upside.

I think John Schneider will be all-in on the quarterbacks at the top of this draft. I think Pete Carroll might be too (this was an interesting note from ESPN). We’ve said all along — if that were the case, Schneider should take one. He has enough money in the bank to trust his decision making at this position. I wonder if, in the coming weeks, he’s going to ask for faith from the fanbase to pursue the long-term future of this team.

A lot of 12’s don’t want to consider it. If you follow the evidence, though, it leads you to the conclusion that the Seahawks — and Schneider in particular — will probably be desperate to get one of these three.

I’ll be hosting a live stream with Robbie at 12pm PT to discuss plenty of Seahawks & draft related topics. You can watch here:

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