Pete Carroll would be the ideal coach for Kayvon Thibodeaux
Yesterday I wrote about Tony Pauline’s report that the Seahawks intend to try and trade down from #9 (with the Eagles and Saints interested in moving up) before selecting Trevor Penning. Tony believes they could also move back into round one for Desmond Ridder.
I dislike the idea immensely so today I wanted to write about an alternative proposal.
Firstly a heads up. I will be posting my own final mock draft for Huddle Report scoring later today. On Thursday I will be live blogging throughout the draft. At the end of each day I will be doing a live stream with Robbie to offer instant reaction. On Friday, before the start of round two, I will also be doing a live stream with Jeff Simmons. A time for that will be confirmed shortly.
After the draft I intend to produce plenty of podcast/stream content (including interviews), articles and reaction before providing a look ahead to the 2023 class.
My aim is to try and provide the most extensive Seahawks draft coverage possible. I hope you’ll give SDB a go from Thursday onwards.
I am going to post my final Horizontal board early on Thursday morning too. I’ve been working flat out to finalise it.
Right, onto the thought for this morning…
The reporting over the last 48 hours has been unlike anything I’ve seen before in the lead up to a draft. There are so many different ideas, suggestions and sourced reports. This is going way beyond the usual scuttlebutt at this time of year.
I’m starting to think I might’ve underestimated how ‘out there’ the top-10 is going to be. It felt for a long, long time that things were pretty much set. The defensive and offensive linemen would come off the board quickly and we’ve had an idea that the Seahawks would pretty much be left with a choice of someone like Derek Stingley Jr at #9 or trading down. Plus, of course, Trevor Penning.
That could still be the truth. That’s what I’m going to spend the rest of the day thinking about. Are all these new rumours, that I’ll come onto, valid?
A lot of prior assumptions still seem destined to be true. I have never mocked a quarterback in the top-10. I’ve never felt they were good enough. I interviewed Scot McCloughan who said he’d be surprised if any went in the top-10, adding three would go later in round one and all would carry third round draft grades.
Right now, I can’t find a mock draft with a QB in the top-10. Nobody is talking about that. Everyone is talking about Carolina taking an offensive lineman. This is what we’ve been saying for weeks and weeks — even during the hype season (aka the pro-day circuit).
Thus, are we likely just going through a particularly ridiculous couple of days of headline making and mystery creating to add intrigue to a draft class without those top quarterbacks to promote and talk about?
It’s possible. I might stick to my guns in the mock and retain a bunch of pass rushers going off the board quickly, followed by a bunch of O-liners.
That would be the scenario, in my opinion, where a trade down for Seattle becomes a distinct possibility. Especially with so many teams itching to get a crack at WR1 or WR2.
However, I’m going to consider a few other things here.
Aside from Tony Pauline’s report on Seattle, Penning and Ridder — he mentioned the three-way battle that’s going on in Jacksonville. The owner wants Aidan Hutchinson, the GM wants Travon Walker and the Head Coach wants Ikem Ekwonu.
Tony said in his mock, coming out today, he’s going to have Doug Pederson winning that battle. Chris Simms, as it happens, said exactly the same thing on Dan Patrick yesterday. Pederson wants Ekwonu and the word on the street is the owner is siding with him.
There’s constant buzz around Derek Stingley Jr to Houston at #3. Multiple people are mentioning it. Three weeks ago I reached out to a contact about Stingley Jr. I can’t share the name, obviously, but this person is in the NFL and I promise is an impeccable source.
This individual was convinced Stingley Jr was the best corner in the draft. He said he was a superior player to Patrick Surtain a year ago.
“I love Stingley. He has better movement skills than (Sauce) Gardner. He’s instinctive. He has god-given skills. Explosive. He’s been around it his whole life. If he came out as a freshman he would’ve been the top cornerback in the draft.”
“He’s wired perfectly.”
The source said if the preferred options on the D-line and O-line were taken, he’d essentially run to the podium to draft Stingley Jr.
Houston have been linked heavily to Ekwonu. If he goes #1 and Hutchinson goes #2 — it’s absolutely possible the Texans find themselves in that position. Their two preferred lineman are off the board and they decide Stingley Jr is next man up.
There’s more. I’ve been projecting Jermaine Johnson high in the first round, with good reason. He’s been steadily rising.
However, there’s just been a little bit of push-back recently. A few mocks either have him available to Seattle at #9 or lasting deeper into round one.
Tony Pauline on his New York Giants podcast this week said he’d been told #4 would be too high for Jermaine Johnson, having previously suggested it could happen.
Then we have the medical stuff on Evan Neal. Charlie Campbell reported that some teams medically failed Neal. There’s been some unconvincing pushback to this with well known national reporters tentatively saying some teams have a slight concern but there are enough other teams out there that would still take him.
This isn’t unusual for Alabama players. Remember Jonathan Allen who lasted to #17 in 2017? He’s had a great career but there’s a history of linemen for the Crimson Tide carrying a medical concern and falling.
Neal hasn’t done any pre-draft testing. Meanwhile, the likes of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay have recently had him lasting to #9.
So what’s the reality here? Is it simply that the likes of Charles Cross will be seen as a safer medical projection for O-line needy teams and go ahead of Neal? Could he potentially fall into the mid-first round like Allen? Or is it all nonsense?
And then there’s Kayvon Thibodeaux. A real mystery. Mike Garafolo tweeted this morning he’s an option at #2 to Detroit but appears to be a no-go for the Jets at #4.
There’s no doubt in my mind that there’s absolutely no ‘character flags’ to be wary of. This is simple. I took a new job in January. If I’d gone into that job interview and told the bosses how I thought this opportunity would set me up for other jobs, or other money-making opportunities, and if I spent far less time reflecting on the actual position I was applying for, it would be off-putting.
That is all this is. Thibodeaux refers to himself as a ‘true entrepreneur’. He has business aims and ambitions and he talks about them pretty much all the time. And while he acknowledges football will help him achieve his goals, it always sounds like it’s a means to an end — rather than what drives him internally. Supposedly, he’s been speaking this way when meeting with teams, not just during media interviews.
Personally I couldn’t be less bothered. He’s hardly the first player to have grand ideas for his portfolio of non-footballing business interests. But teams preparing to make a franchise-changing decision and invest millions are, not unfairly, going to weigh up their options when another player with a similar grade comes in and spends their entire interview talking about schemes, football ambitions and winning Super Bowls.
Working out how early he’ll go is tricky. I suspect Atlanta at #8 will be the floor. Eventually the attractive, football-obsessed alternatives will run out and Thibodeaux will be the clear BPA. And someone will take him and feel delighted about it.
Indeed the Falcons at #8 feel like the key to all of this for Seattle. How inclined are they to force a receiver pick? There’s going to be a run at the position that starts anywhere from #8-#11. Do they want to be the ones to kick things off? Or do they just go for BPA and seek to build?
They could shatter any dreams of a great pass rusher reaching #9. Or they could be the useful friend, ready and willing to get out of the way.
Let’s imagine these are the first three picks:
#1 Jacksonville — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
From here, you’d assume the Jets would go with either Travon Walker or Sauce Gardner. I’ll go with Walker because New York badly needs a pass rusher and they’ve invested in corner already this off-season. The Giants, according to virtually everyone, like Charles Cross.
#4 NY Jets — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#5 NY Giants — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
It would get really interesting from here. If the Panthers are 100% invested in taking a tackle, what if the concerns over Evan Neal’s health are legit? I read yesterday they like Trevor Penning too. I recently mentioned with Jeff on a stream that my prediction for a top-10 shocker would be Penning to the Panthers. Scott Fitterer is from the Seattle braintrust and if the Seahawks like him, Carolina probably does too.
The note yesterday suggested the Panthers would prefer to trade down before taking Penning (sound familiar?) but what if they can’t move down? And what if they’ve flunked Neal’s medicals? Could they take him at #6? Is it that ridiculous in this draft?
For the purpose of this mock let’s say they take Evan Neal.
Now you’re in a position where Sauce Gardner, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Jermaine Johnson are still available and you’re on the clock in two picks’ time. At least one of the three makes it to you.
This is where it could get exciting. The Giants could go pass rush but they could take Gardner. Let’s say they do. Then you’re guaranteed a top pass rusher at #9.
#6 Carolina — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#7 NY Giants — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
In Peter King’s mock draft he had the Falcons selecting Drake London. Now there are two pass rushers available at #9.
King had Seattle dropping down to #13 and Thibodeaux and Johnson were still there. I kind of get it. Let’s say you deal your pick to a team like Houston wanting a receiver. The Jets, having taken Travon Walker at #4, aren’t going pass rusher at #10. The Commanders wouldn’t take yet another defensive lineman. The Vikings already have Za’Darius Smith and Danielle Hunter. So it’s not totally out of the question you could move down and still, comfortably, get a pass rusher.
And if the Seahawks get a sniff of a top defensive lineman, I really hope they grab it with both hands and don’t trade down to manufacture a way to take Penning instead. The idea of Darrell Taylor teaming up with Johnson or Thibodeaux is exciting.
I’ve felt for a while that Johnson’s attitude would be ideal across from Taylor, helping create a new identity for the team. With Thibodeaux, I think Pete Carroll would be the ideal coach for him. He’d let him be himself, he’d encourage him to be himself and he’d find the happy balance between football and business.
The ideal scenario for me would be a top pass rusher with the first pick, a really good offensive lineman with your second pick and then best player available with the third.
If the pass rushers are gone and they trade down, I’d even rather they pivot to Jordan Davis (linked to Seattle by Todd McShay this week) than force a need with Penning.
More than anything though, I just don’t want this team to spend resource moving from #40 to #28 — as Tony Pauline suggested — to draft Desmond Ridder. That would be a deflating move for me and I think a lot of other people who’ve studied Ridder’s tape (it’s not too late to go and watch the Navy, Notre Dame and Alabama games). I don’t know how anyone can watch Ridder and think yes — I want to draft this player in round one. For me he’s a mid-rounder you take a flier on.
Trading down from #9 and taking Penning to fill a hole and create extra stock to manufacture a move up for Ridder would be an extremely tough pill to swallow. Just start Drew Lock. Don’t force a pick in the worst QB class in years.
Being able to get a top-four pass rusher in round one, then bolstering your offensive line in round two (Tyler Linderbaum? Cam Jurgens? Cole Strange? Abraham Lucas?) and then adding the best talent available at #41 (or after a small move down) would be a true foundation-building plan. That, to me, would be exciting. That is what I am hoping for tomorrow and Friday.
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