Sam Williams could be a surprise R1 pick for Seattle
The Seahawks have developed a reputation for making ‘surprise’ early picks. For the most part they’ve taken players in the range they were expected to go but occasionally they’ve made a selection that has left fans and media gasping.
If both of the top quarterbacks are gone by the time the Seahawks pick at 9, several execs told me they believe the odds of a trade down are very high. The Vikings are clearly in the market for a top corner, and jumping up to 9 would likely allow then to secure one of the top two (Gardner or Derek Stingley, Jr), and Seattle at 12 could very likely still land one of the top pass rushers on the board plus keep securing much needed additional draft capital (even after the Russell Wilson trade). It’s a potential draft scenario to keep an eye on.
I don’t believe for a second that the Seahawks are hoping that a quarterback ‘falls’ to them at #9. Thus it brings into doubt the validity of the whole projection from JLC.
However, he’s the second person (after Tony Pauline) touting the likelihood of a trade down.
As noted a few times — I think the Seahawks made the Wilson trade feeling like there was a good chance a pass rusher would be there at #9. However, both Travon Walker and Jermaine Johnson have likely propelled themselves into the top-five.
It’s possible they pivot to a cornerback and selecting Derek Stingley Jr or Sauce Gardner would net them a really good player. We also know, however, that this team hasn’t drafted a cornerback higher than the late third round in the Pete Carroll era.
So when JLC mentions trading down and being in a position to ‘very likely still land one of the top pass rushers on the board’ — what does he mean?
It’s a tricky one to work out. Both George Karlaftis and Boye Mafe are really good players but both had sub-33 inch arms at the combine. Arnold Ebiketie supposedly ran a 1.69 10-yard split at the combine. David Ojabo has a serious injury that will keep him out for the 2022 season.
It’s difficult to look at this group and say definitively — yes, that’s a Seahawks pass rusher.
The player who does fit the bill is Ole Miss’ Sam Williams.
If they trade down and take him in round one it would be a shocking pick. He’s generally being mocked in the second or even third round. However, he has a lot of the things the Seahawks like.
He ran a 4.46 forty and a blistering 1.52 10-yard split at the combine. Those are elite times for a 261lbs pass rusher. He has 33 1/8 inch arms. His pass rush win percentage is 19.5% — higher than Ojabo (19%), Jermaine Johnson (14.2%) and Travon walker (10.8%). He had 12.5 sacks in 2021 — breaking a single-season school record. He needs to get stronger in order to finish better but that’s easily rectifiable.
He also played for Lane and Monte Kiffin. Lane was on Rich Eisen’s show last week and highlighted Williams as a player with immense talent for the NFL if he goes to the right home, with the right kind of guidance.
Given he volunteered Williams’ name in that interview, he’s probably speaking highly of him to coaches. We know Carroll’s spoken to his old friends about Ole Miss’ players.
Williams is a terrific pass rusher with the lean and quickness to trouble pro-tackles. He’s twitchy in the way top-tier sack specialists tend to be.
The Seahawks clearly identified pass rusher as their biggest need this off-season and with respect to Uchenna Nwosu — that situation hasn’t been properly fixed.
It’s possible they wait until #40/#41 and see what remains of the class. It’s equally possible they signed Nwosu because they felt less confident about drafting a pass rusher and now intend to draft a Michael Clemons type later on, while perhaps re-signing Carlos Dunlap down the line.
Not doing anything at offensive tackle also gives a strong indicator they intend to draft one early — which is why we’ve talked a lot about Trevor Penning.
Yet if their intention is to draft a pass rusher first, just keep Williams in your mind. They’ve had a tendency under this regime to zone in on positions and select ‘their guys’. It’s possible Williams is one of ‘their guys’.
I don’t think it’d be the worst pick in the world frankly. He clearly has a lot of talent and would provide the Seahawks with a really dynamic collection of edge rushers. Watch him against one of the most overrated players in the draft (Charles Cross) and see what he does to him. He has him on toast.
Would it be unnecessarily risky and forced though?
This is why I’ve got no problem moving down a few spots and taking, say, Zion Johnson. This is a big rebuild, regardless of what anyone says. Plugging in players with long-term potential to be building blocks who tick every box — character, performance, physical profile, leadership — there’s nothing wrong with that.
I’m totally comfortable coming away with Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum as the first two picks and simply saying — great — we’ve sorted the interior O-line for the next 8-10 years. Now let’s run the ball brilliantly.
I’m also very comfortable drafting a player like Stingley Jr at #9. Why not try and get a blue-chip player at a premium position?
The Seahawks tend to have their ways and means though and there’s no getting away from the fact that Williams — with his testing profile, production, frame and Kiffin-connection — could be the type of player they end up drafting a lot earlier than many think after trading down from #9.
Imagine a scenario like this in the top-eight:
#1 Jacksonville — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#2 Detroit — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#3 Houston — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#6 Carolina — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#7 NY Giants — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#8 Atlanta — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
(Note — I want to keep saying this — if Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu come off the board before #6 — I think the Panthers could potentially take Trevor Penning and not Charles Cross. Penning, for me, is a better prospect with far more upside. Certain teams might like Cross based on scheme and fit but he is vastly overrated by the media)
With both of the top cornerbacks on the board, we could see teams like Minnesota and Houston scrambling to move up. There’d also be a potential desperate push to get the second receiver given Garrett Wilson is off the board. The options at offensive tackle are running out too.
This is why Seattle’s #9 pick could be the prime ‘trade down’ spot in this class.
They could comfortably drop into the teens, acquire another day-two pick (and possibly some 2023 stock) then take a pass rusher with the profile they’ve typically sought over the years.
It’d be controversial and I’m not predicting it will happen — more suggesting Williams is a name to monitor. But you have to admit — it’s the kind of thing they’ve done in the past.
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Let me be clear — this list is based on historical trends in terms of physical traits and playing style. You could add all sorts of names and make a case. In this deep draft you could probably write 50 names down.
I wanted this to be a shorter, defined group. The ones who clearly ‘fit’ physically, fit the philosophy and play positions they’ve typically drafted.
For example, you could plausibly say Sauce Gardner’s size and length or Derek Stingley Jr’s lofty recruiting rating match Seattle and Pete Carroll’s desires. However — the simple fact is they haven’t invested in the cornerback position early. In fact, they’ve spent very little draft stock on cornerbacks over the years.
There are also players who fit in a lot of areas but not in the complete profile. Boye Mafe, for example, has shorter than ideal arm length. So does Devante Wyatt. George Karlaftis doesn’t have the frame of previous Seahawks’ picks at defensive end. Michael Clemons flashes in the same way Darrell Taylor did — but he lacks the testing profile to rubber stamp completely. Abraham Lucas is a tremendous talent but are they looking for bigger tackles moving forward?
I could add a whole bunch of receivers to the list. They love 4.4 runners (or faster) and there are a load in that range this year. However — increasingly it seems like nobody is going to make the kind of offer to tempt the Seahawks to part with D.K. Metcalf. Having used their top pick on a receiver just a year ago, this might end up being a position pushed to later in the draft (or UDFA) — especially given the depth of options available.
I made this list with historical trends and philosophy at the forefront of everything. That’s not to say they can’t or won’t adapt as they launch a new era for the team. It’s also true they’ve never been in a position to draft a player like Stingley Jr before — so this could easily be a year where new ground is broken.
However, based on what we do know, these are the players I think we can say with some degree of confidence ‘fit’ the Seahawks.
Apologies to regulars who will have read some of these notes before. I don’t want to be too repetitive but we’re in the home straight now.
Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
He ticks every single box the Seahawks look for. His 3.33 TEF score means he’s the ninth most explosive offensive linemen to enter the league since 2016. His score is comparable to Russell Okung (3.37) — the highest pick in the Carroll era to date. Johnson also has 34 inch arms and a wonderfully proportioned frame. He’s the best-looking guard prospect I can recall since starting this blog in 2008. He also ran a ridiculous 4.46 short shuttle. Then you stick on the tape and where does he excel? In the running game. He is an aggressive, physical run-blocker. If the Seahawks want to get back to the Carroll brand of football, Johnson would be ideal both athletically and philosophically. The aim should be for this team to be great in the trenches. Selecting him early might not be exciting or flashy but putting Johnson at left guard to replace the spent force that is Gabe Jackson and returning Damien Lewis to the right guard spot would set up the Seahawks to possess a tremendous run-blocking O-line.
Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
In Carroll’s own words they signed Austin Blythe to try a different body type at center. They also admired his wrestling background. Carroll might as well have been wearing an Iowa Hawkeyes T-shirt as he uttered the sentence. Linderbaum is basically the 5-star version of Blythe with an identical body and an even more impressive wrestling background. Plenty of teams will look at the size and lack of length and deem he simply isn’t a fit for their scheme. Carroll has spelled out, though, that Linderbaum is exactly what they’re looking for. In the right scheme, he has a chance to be an all-pro. His ability to wrestle and combat at the POA is attractive and second only to his ability to reach to the second level and deliver crucial, run-springing blocks. His testing profile also fits the Seahawks. He’s explosive with a projected 3.07 TEF score and he ran a 4.38 short shuttle and a 4.98 forty. I know it probably won’t happen but the Seahawks could do so much for their identity to create a Zion Johnson/Tyler Linderbaum/Damien Lewis treble in the interior O-line.
Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
The Rams’ blocking scheme — which the Seahawks appear to be leaning on — loves size at tackle. The Seahawks traditionally love size and explosive traits. Therefore, Penning is an easy projection to match with Seattle. He’s a 3.03 TEF tester with a 6-7, 330lbs frame. He ran a 4.89 forty to further illustrate his athletic potential. He basically has the same profile as LA’s tackles for the last few years — Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein. The media will tell you he’s a big-time tough-guy too but I’ve been sceptical about that since the Senior Bowl. I think he tried too hard to portray that image. There were plenty of cheap shots and acts of aggression after bad reps. There were also many examples of poor technique and getting beaten far too easily. Thus, he’s a likely project who might have to settle for playing straight-on as a right guard. At best, in year one, he’s a right tackle (a possible permanent position for him). Nevertheless, he has the physical attributes the Seahawks have been attracted to in an offensive lineman.
Cam Jurgens (C, Nebraska)
If the Seahawks are looking for a different type of center, Jurgens also fits the bill. He’s a little bit taller than Linderbaum (6-3) but he’s still 290lbs. He does have great length though (33.5 inch arms) and his testing profile was remarkable. His 3.34 TEF score makes him the eighth most explosive lineman to enter the league since 2016. He ran a 4.92 forty and a 4.49 short shuttle. Calling his playing style ‘aggressive’ doesn’t do it justice. He is just an incredible, tone-setting prospect who was underrated for months and he still doesn’t get enough credit. I think Linderbaum provides the perfect profile for the type of center Seattle wants but Jurgens isn’t far behind. He probably fits more teams with his length. Yet for the Seahawks he has the size, physical profile and length they’ve often sought.
Logan Bruss (T, Wisconsin)
Bruss doesn’t get much national attention but there are a few reasons to think he could be on Seattle’s radar. He’s explosive with a 3.08 TEF score. He has experience at right tackle and guard. He has enormous 11 inch hands which he uses to strike, control and bully defenders. He has reasonable arm length (33 1/8 inches). He ran a 4.55 short shuttle at 309lbs. He’s aggressive and competitive and you can imagine the Seahawks drafting him and potentially giving him a chance to play inside or out. The Rams have two starting guards who both played tackle in college and have similar size to Bruss. He’s the type of versatile O-liner they’ve typically looked for.
Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
When the Seahawks made the Russell Wilson trade I highly suspect they did so imagining Johnson as a great option at #9. Perhaps he was even Plan A? Yet his stock has risen and risen and now it seems almost certain he will go between picks #4-7. It’s a shame because he has so much of what Seattle likes. He ran a 1.59 10-yard split (anything in the 1.5’s is intriguing). He has 34 inch arms. He wins with his hands not just athleticism. He can defend the run at a high level. He owned the Senior Bowl. He plays with a level of aggression and intensity that would’ve helped create the next identity for this team. They want another Darrell Taylor and Johnson was the man to fill the void. What could’ve been, eh?
Sam Williams (DE, Ole Miss)
In trying to find alternatives to Jermaine Johnson, most of the players have something that just forces you to question the fit in Seattle. With Boye Mafe it’s arm length, with George Karlaftis it’s frame, length and 10-yard split. Arnold Ebiketie’s split is a 1.69 reportedly. Ouch. Williams is the one who ticks the most boxes — speed, length, size. He has a great frame at 6-3 and 261lbs. He ran a blistering 1.52 10-yard split and a 4.46 forty. He has the arm length at 33 1/8 inches. His agility testing is reasonable (4.36 short shuttle). He has the athletic profile that the Seahawks look for. Then you see on tape an ability to win off the edge with quickness, lean and bend. He generally looks like the type of pass rusher they covet. I listened to Lane Kiffin on with Rich Eisen this week. Kiffin was asked for an Ole Miss player not named Matt Corral who we need to keep an eye on for the next level. Kiffin singled out Williams, noting he could be special in the right program. We know Carroll and the Kiffin’s are close. It won’t be a surprise at all if the Seahawks take Williams in round two.
Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
If I had to put money on anyone being a key target for the Seahawks, it’d be Pierce. He screams ‘Seattle running back’. The size, the explosive traits, the mentality, the running style. He provides a similar energy and tenacity to Thomas Rawls but on a frame more akin to Frank Gore. He slimmed down for workouts and was listed at around 5-10 and 218lbs which is right in Seattle’s range — but he probably plays in the 220’s. He jumped a 34.5 inch vertical which was a little lower than expected but still fine. It’s the running style that stands out. He drives through attempted tackles and gains yards after contact. He finishes every run and helps energise team mates with his attitude. His balance and strength combined with sharp cuts and a burst of speed make you want to put him in a Seahawks draft cap right now. I get the sense the only thing stopping him landing in Seattle in round three will be somebody else snapping him off the board.
Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
We’re now on to the linebacker portion of the article. Frankly, I could list a whole bunch of names here but I’m going to limit it to the two players who tick the most boxes. The Seahawks have typically targeted great athletes at linebacker (testing well in the forty, vertical etc) or they’ve gone after players running in the 4.00-4.10 range in the short shuttle. The likes of Cody Barton, Ben Burr-Kirven and Kevin Pierre-Louis all excelled in the short shuttle and it appears to be a drill they focus on a lot at linebacker. Let’s start with Tindall. He ran a 4.47 forty, jumped a 42 inch vertical and reportedly ran anything from a 4.07 to a 4.18 short shuttle. He flies to the ball-carrier and made one of the plays of the Senior Bowl game on special teams. His personality is infectious. It’s easy to imagine him being drafted to compete with Cody Barton.
Troy Andersen (LB, Montana State)
Andersen is a quite remarkable prospect — having played offense and defense in college and excelling at both. He ran a 4.42 forty at 243lbs at the combine with a stunning 1.49 10-yard split. He then jumped a 36 inch vertical and a 10-8 broad. At pro-day he added a 4.07 short shuttle and a 6.77 three cone. In terms of pure traits, he’s off the charts. There are players in this draft better equipped to start quickly and provide impact. Quay Walker, who could go in round one, for example — or Devin Lloyd. Yet nobody has the athletic ceiling of Andersen. It could be that he’s always a better athlete than player but his performance at the Senior Bowl will allay some fears. The short shuttle in particular makes me want to single him out here.
Logan Hall (DT, Houston)
The Seahawks have consistently targeted players who run well in the short shuttle on the defensive line too. In particular tackles and inside/out rushers. It’s worth noting Hall only has 32 3/4 inch arms. Provided they’re willing to overlook that quarter of an inch — Hall ran a 4.44 short shuttle at 283lbs. That’s impressive. And while he plays too high on tape and needs to work out a plan for his pass-rush (too often he appeared a bit reckless and haphazard — and that showed at the Senior Bowl too) there’s no doubting his potential to be a major disruptive force if given time. His pass rush win rate among interior players was way ahead of the rest of the class (16.2%) and his run stopping percentage (9.2%) is also reasonably high. He’d be well suited to eventually take over from Quinton Jefferson. The length is the only question mark but he couldn’t be closer to ticking that box.
Percy Butler (S, Louisiana)
This one was easy to end the list with — especially since the Seahawks had him in for an official visit recently. Butler is an absolute demon on special teams. I can imagine the Seahawks drafting him for that alone — but the fact he ran a 4.36 forty helps too. You could put together a highlights video of his hits on special teams. As with Dameon Pierce — it feels like the only thing stopping him being in Seattle is another team jumping the queue.
Final thoughts
As I was putting this list together and I couldn’t help but feel, yet again, that this is a draft to start building your trenches rather than trying to fill specific holes. If you came out of this class with Zion Johnson, Tyler Linderbaum, Dameon Pierce and Logan Bruss I’d consider that a victory. Throw in a pass rusher and/or linebacker and you’re moving in the right direction in terms of creating the kind of team you want to be.
I completely appreciate that positional value has to play a part and thus, the above likely won’t happen. Gabe Jackson and Austin Blythe are both highly replaceable though. The likes of Johnson and Linderbaum provide an opportunity to create the kind of running attack you want, set the culture you want and they feel like players, to me, who can earn second contracts and develop into top performers at their individual positions.
I don’t have a problem with going in that direction. I think we also know the Seahawks well enough to imagine they will try to fill holes using the draft rather than replace replaceable players — while taking chances on upside at certain positions over perhaps more of a sure thing.
My position hasn’t really changed. I’d love to see the top pick go on a defensive player with the potential to be great and I think Derek Stingley Jr best fits that description (given the top-four pass rushers will be long gone by #9). Yet I’m also completely content with trading down and acquiring more stock, before looking at other players including some of the names above.
I wish they didn’t still have big holes on the roster at offensive tackle because I think part of their problem over recent years has been forcing needs instead of just adding the best players available.
This is a draft to build the foundation.
Building a foundation means picking for talent, not need, with a strict focus on creating the team you want to be.
Just get some good football players.
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Trevor Penning remains a very strong option for Seattle
The fact Seattle’s two tackle spots remain unaddressed with Duane Brown and Brandon Shell both free agents feels like an enormous tell. The Seahawks are going to address tackle in the first three rounds. It’s just a question of who they take.
I’ve bored everyone to death about this not being a draft to target a left tackle which makes me think they will set about re-signing Brown after the draft. However, that still leaves the right tackle spot open (and I don’t expect in any way they are assuming Jake Curhan has it nailed).
Trevor Penning might be their guy, assuming the top pass rushers are gone. They love size and explosive traits and Penning has them. He’s a 3.03 TEF tester with a 6-7, 330lbs frame. Running a 4.89 forty at that size was incredible really.
Penning will be a very high pick as a consequence of this. People like to predict ‘surprise’ picks at this time of year. My suggestion would be Penning going #6 overall to the Panthers if Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are off the board. Scott Fitterer worked for the Seahawks. The chances are he retains some of their ideas and preferences.
I could never imagine the Seahawks taking a non-explosive, moderately athletic tackle in the top-10. After all, Russell Okung was a 3.37 TEF tester with rare 36 inch arms and ideal size.
I’m very sceptical of Carolina taking Charles Cross. I think if there’s a player who could hear his name called earlier than people think it’ll be Penning at #6 overall.
The league remains desperate for tackle prospects. Here’s one with insane athleticism, explosive traits and massive size.
And all of those reasons are why he could be a prime option for Seattle.
I maintain that he needs major technical work. It was really hard to watch how he handled the 1v1’s at the Senior Bowl. He was susceptible to the inside-move and lost some reps. He started to over-compensate. The defenders noticed it so ran to the inside then countered with speed-to-power. He’d end up off-balance and the results were not good.
It was tough watching Kyron Johnson run through him (but he also did the same to Abraham Lucas to be fair).
My long-term worry is that Penning will prove to be at his best when he doesn’t have to defend the edge and can just line up head-on and demolish. That’s what he’s good at. He worked out at the Senior Bowl at right guard and when I saw that it felt like a bit of a reveal on what the league thinks might be his fit.
No doubt he could be a really good right guard. I’d prefer not to launch a new era of Seahawks football with a tackle who might have to kick inside to guard.
Yet it’d be foolish to ignore how much he ‘fits’ Seattle. It’s very easy to imagine them drafting Penning and putting him at right tackle, then re-signing Brown. That would give Penning some development time and he could be the heir apparent at left tackle.
Would he fit the new blocking scheme in Seattle? A quick reminder that Andrew Whitworth is the exact same size as Penning (6-7, 330lbs) and right tackle Rob Havenstein is even bigger (6-8, 330lbs).
It’s a plan — one that makes sense even if it’s not what a lot of fans (including me) would prefer. It’s definitely one to file in the ‘this could plausibly happen’ cabinet.
I guess it just feels like a rich man’s James Carpenter situation. A college left tackle with a lot of intriguing traits and some good tape. Yet it feels like the end result could be very similar. A decent career at guard but perhaps no second contract in Seattle at a time everyone is hoping this pick is more of an Earl Thomas-level success story.
There are plenty of tackles with far fewer traits, less upside and much more hype who have been taken very early and flamed out.
If there’s a rush on pass rushers and offensive lineman as expected in the top-10 then the Seahawks might prefer to simply jump aboard that train.
And are we as Seahawks fans really going to complain about drafting an offensive tackle, of all positions?
They might even be able to make a pick like this after moving down (although I think the Jets at #10 could easily pull Penning off the board). If Garrett Wilson is taken in the top-eight (and increasingly people think he will be) then it increases the chances of no cornerbacks being taken by #9.
That could create a scenario where teams like Minnesota at #12 and Houston at #13 are fighting to move up to select Sauce Gardner.
Seahawks fans would flip-out if they passed on Gardner to move down because the media’s fed you a steady diet of relentless praise for Gardner. He’s a good player and I like him. I’m not convinced, though, that he’s as good as some would have you believe. He’s not done any testing other than running a forty (why?) and a reminder that there are people in the league (I’ve spoken to one of them) who firmly believe Derek Stingley Jr is still the best cornerback in this draft (even though the same source expected Gardner to be the first corner taken).
If it means acquiring an extra high pick to drop to #12 or #13, that wouldn’t be terrible. They might be prepared to take their chances on Penning getting beyond the Jets and Commanders. Stingley Jr could last. I do think there’s a chance that some teams (maybe the Seahawks) view Zion Johnson as being worthy of a similar grade to Zack Martin. Plus my source in the league (and again, you’ll have to trust me on his legitimacy but I assure you it’s a great source) mentioned last week that George Karlaftis is seen by some as basically Aidan Hutchinson just available later.
So the options are there and frankly — that might be where the good odds are for Seattle right now. If the likes of Jermaine Johnson are gone — and he will be — then exploiting other teams in need of a corner or receiver could make sense. Especially if it lands you another welcome day two pick in this beautifully deep draft.
If they don’t take a tackle with the top pick then it becomes a target later on. I still think if you want to run the ball brilliantly the best option is to find a way to draft Zion Johnson and Tyler Linderbaum and stick them next to Damien Lewis. If they don’t do this and look at tackle in round two — Abraham Lucas would be a plug-and-play right tackle.
It’s shameful really that his exceptional combine performance received so little attention. His on-field work-outs were by far the best of any of his peers. Ikem Ekwonu’s performance was filled with mistakes, errors and not finishing properly yet we were treated to endless talk of him going #1 overall during the NFL Network’s coverage. Lucas did everything at a high level. His testing results make him a 2.97 TEF tester and he ran a blistering 4.40 short shuttle.
Not only that, he was great at the Senior Bowl too. Better than many of the other players who got more praise.
Lucas is an excellent talent who has been underrated for far too long.
Tyler Smith on the other hand has become quite overrated. I don’t like the way he defends the edge and to me looks like a right tackle at best but more likely a guard. However, his demeanour and run-blocking skill could make him an option if he drops into round two.
Rasheed Walker was an interesting name on Seattle’s ‘official 30’ visit list. He hasn’t done any pre-draft testing and comes across as a bit of an enigma. On tape he flashes moments where you think — this guy could be one of the best in the league. Then there are moments where his effort isn’t close to 100% or he gets sloppy in his technique.
I think they legitimately wanted to work out who he is in that meeting. Who knows what impression he made. If it was a positive one they might view him as a round three fall-back.
It’s not rocket science to work out a little bit of their thinking though. No tackles signed means one will be drafted quite early. No hedge linebackers signed after releasing Bobby Wagner suggests they will take one quite early.
While a lot of focus has been on positions like cornerback, pass rush and quarterback — the evidence suggests those aren’t the areas they will pursue. They’ve signed three cornerbacks and like Tre Brown. They’ve spent a fair amount of money on Uchenna Nwosu (in my opinion because they could see the way the top pass rushers were rising out of reach at #9). They will probably add another quarterback but by signing Geno Smith and adding Drew Lock — and with no rookies in this draft in a serious position to start early — the chances are they’ll just spend a later round pick on a Kaleb Eleby or Jack Coan.
If opportunities are there they will take them — such as Jermaine Johnson lasting to #9 or Tyler Linderbaum being in range. If not, that’s why you hedge.
My opinion might change in the next two weeks but right now I’d think one of their first three picks will be a tackle and one will be a linebacker. The other could be another pass rusher but it’s also possible at the top of round two a player remains available they just feel is too good — regardless of position — that they need to take. It could be a quarterback. It could be Linderbaum. I would expect them to draft a running back in round three.
That would be my best guess as of today.
One big decision I’ll need to make in my next mock is whether to pair Carolina with Penning at #6 with Neal and Ekwonu off the board — or whether I have him in range for Seattle.
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Just a few quick thoughts today. I have a couple of long travelling days ahead but wanted to share a short post.
With two weeks to go one important thing to remember is — what kind of team do the Seahawks want to be?
We know the answer. We know they want to run the ball at a high level. We know they want to use it to connect the defense and special teams together. It’s something they haven’t managed to do consistently for a long time.
Much to the chagrin of many fans, they may be about to actually reduce their spending on the offensive line. By passing the torch to Shane Waldron and Andy Dickerson, they could be relying on scheme over talent. The Rams for a long time have plugged linemen in without any real fanfare. Their one big investment was Andrew Whitworth — a player in his late 30’s.
The Seahawks can still bring back Duane Brown to be their Whitworth. They’ve already signed former Rams center Austin Blythe. It won’t be a stunning turn of events if they simply find cheap fits rather than make big additions in the draft.
It’s worth mentally preparing yourself for that — if you’re someone hoping for some key trench additions in a fortnight.
On the other hand, there’s another side to consider.
When Pete Carroll and John Schneider arrived in Seattle they set about building an offensive line then delivering a heart-and-soul running back in Marshawn Lynch. Their first big decision was to draft Russell Okung. In 2011 their first two picks were James Carpenter and John Moffitt. They also added Robert Gallery as a big-name free agent having inherited Max Unger at center.
They had the most expensive O-line in the league by the time they won the Super Bowl.
Will they feel they can just transplant the Rams’ blocking scheme and voila — have a great O-line? That feels a bit risky and leaving yourself open to criticism.
It’s plausible they lend a bit from both perspectives. Shift to the Rams scheme while also being prepared to inves up front.
We’ll find out soon enough what they intend to do.
I do like the idea of attempting to build a top-level O-line. As noted a lot by now — this isn’t the draft to go searching for a left tackle early. Evan Neal and Ikem Ekwonu are both better suited to guard. Charles Cross has become quite the overrated player. Trevor Penning has impressive physical potential but needs so much technical refinement he probably has to be eased in at right guard or right tackle. Abraham Lucas is excellent but there’s little point moving him from the right side.
I don’t want to beat a dead horse but if you want to run the ball well — the two best run-blocking linemen I’ve watched so far are probably Zion Johnson and Taylor Linderbaum.
Both have weaknesses against the pass. With Johnson he gets too amped to attack and can be caught with his positioning. There are snaps on tape and at the Senior Bowl where he was beaten by quickness or power. Linderbaum meanwhile is just so lacking in size/length that there will be occasions where he’s driven off the line and gets bull-rushed into the backfield.
However, they both do a very good job using technical skill to turn opponents to create running lanes. They can bully and harass. They love to get to the second level and reach up to turn good runs into big runs. Both are incredibly explosive, athletic and tested brilliantly.
Putting them in the interior with Damien Lewis could create the best guard/center group in the NFL within a year or two. That would pave the way for better results in the running game, greater consistency and you can play your brand of football.
I want the Seahawks to establish some form of identity. I also want them to select players in this draft with the potential to be among the best at their positions. I think Johnson and Linderbaum fit that bill.
Dallas had a lot of success drafting Zack Martin in the mid-first round and Travis Frederick in the late-first. Nobody quibbled about those two moves when they saw the results. Yes — the Cowboys also had Tyron Smith. I’m not sure having only, say, Duane Brown instead of Smith is reason enough to avoid this kind of approach.
I don’t think the Seahawks will trade down from #9 then double-dip on the interior O-line. I do think it could produce the results they want though.
Instead I fear they’re going to do what they’ve sadly become known for in the draft and that’s filling holes to produce a complete roster. I wonder if they’re more likely to select Penning to play right tackle, re-sign Brown and square-off that if nothing else Penning can simply stay on the right side. I think they will draft a linebacker and a running back fairly early. They will add another pass rusher and possibly a quarterback.
Thus, the holes will be filled.
I’d prefer them to embrace the nature of the rebuild and either take a player with major potential (Derek Stingley Jr) or trade down and start building a structure. Assuming of course the top pass rushers don’t make it to #9 (and they almost certainly won’t).
Johnson and Linderbaum are safe picks with the upside to elevate your line and running game into the top-10. They have the agility and quickness to play in the Rams’ blocking scheme and the explosive athleticism to justify early-round investment.
The first two days of the draft will be interesting to learn about Seattle’s mindset. If they’re intent on filling holes we might see:
I’d rather concentrate on setting the table for 2023. Add players who can take you to where you want to go. Show the restraint and patience of 2010/11 where the foundations were built by investing in the offensive line and drafting a fantastic defensive back in Earl Thomas.
My preference would be to try and draft an exciting defensive talent with your first pick, then just add for value and quality on day two. Forget which is the most important need. Use the draft to add talent.
If they don’t believe a great player is available at #9 — trading down is justifiable in this draft, given the depth available. In that scenario, I’d happily embrace an interior O-line double to kick things off.
But the focus should remain on value and talent — not just ‘which boxes do we need to tick off’?
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— Per Tony Pauline — four pass rushers, three offensive linemen and Sauce Gardner will be off the board in the top-eight. He doesn’t see anyone trading up into the first eight picks and he doesn’t see any quarterbacks going in the top-10.
— This is consistent with what Scot McCloughan told us. No top-10 quarterbacks. Three to go in round one. All with third round grades. None able to start as a rookie. Teams with a sufficient bridge quarterback (Pittsburgh, New Orleans, Tennessee etc) are more likely to tap into this class.
— It leaves the Seahawks, as we’ve been discussing, potentially deliberating between trading down or taking a shot on Derek Stingley Jr.
— Tony continues to report the Seahawks would like to accumulate picks by moving down. Teams wanting the top receiver in the draft or Trevor Penning could move up.
— It’s possible Stingley Jr could still be available after a trade down. I also think moving down could bring into play Devin Lloyd, George Karlaftis, Zion Johnson and possibly Tyler Linderbaum.
— A quick reminder on what a league source told me last week. I can’t reveal the source but if you’re willing to take my word for it — it’s a legit, legit source. He said to me that if it was up to him and he was picking in the top-10, he would take Stingley Jr without hesitation if the O-line and D-line options went quickly off the board. He has scouted Stingley Jr in detail and claimed he was the #1 cornerback in the class, was better than Patrick Surtain coming into the league a year ago and was “wired perfectly” in terms of character. He admitted the Lis Franc injury was a scary injury — however, he also felt the testing results at pro-day were a positive sign.
— We all have our own personal preferences on positional targets. The priority in round one could just be — get a good player but more than anything get more stock for day two and three where you’ll make your money in this class. There are plenty of players I really like in round one. I’m not sure anyone — anywhere — is going to set your franchise up for success with their own personal impact. There are a whole bunch of good players with potential to be really good. Are there great players? Not without risk. This draft is about foundation building and picking as often as possible, getting guys you want. That’s why I wouldn’t be totally against Seattle moving down from #9 then moving up from #40. You can make the board work for you — with a chance to trade down again from #41 if needed to make up any lost stock.
— I’m not sure there’s any decision in round one they could make that would disappoint me other than reaching on a quarterback. I’m not a big fan of Charles Cross and would rather go in a different direction. I’m not sure they’d take him anyway given his profile. You can make an argument for all of the players we’ve started considering — Stingley Jr, Lloyd, Karlaftis, Johnson, Linderbaum. The Seahawks can get a good player. They may not get the one you specifically want — and they may not get an Earl Thomas-level impact player. But they can get a good one — and the success or failure of this class will rest on their ability to find the diamonds within this deep draft.
— Karlaftis is one of the harder projections for me. There are times on tape where he just looks so quick and dynamic as a rusher. He wrecked games against Oregon State and Iowa. Yet his frame isn’t the typical long/lean one Seattle goes for. His 10-yard split of 1.65 is average for his size and you’d expect better than that given what he shows on tape. His effort in run-defending is pretty ‘meh’ at times, surprisingly. Yet he’s so quick and dynamic to shoot gaps or simply beat the tackle to the engage-point that he creates a ton of pressure. It feels very easy to pair him with the Eagles in the middle of the first. The Seahawks haven’t really taken anyone like him. Karlaftis really flashes at times though — and it won’t be a surprise if he has an incredibly solid, long NFL career. Viewing him as a lesser Aidan Hutchinson is fair.
— Dennis Ridder is visiting the Seahawks today. He seems to be doing more than anyone to promote his stock at the moment with a fine off-season. However — it’s a really, really hard sell to justify any faith in Ridder being a long-term answer at quarterback. His Navy tape is quite astonishing and shows off the worst of his erraticism in terms of accuracy. It took him a half (and some favourable field position opportunities) to get going against Notre Dame. He sank against Alabama. There are things to like about him too. His personality is strong and likeable. He’s highly athletic. He did as much as anyone to elevate Cincinnati to a new level. Amid the head-scratching, frustrating, shout-at-the-TV decisions he makes there are also some beautiful passes. I can’t get beyond the patchy accuracy though. That has to be a deal breaker when judging quarterbacks and he was so streaky it’s unreal. I hope this is a fact finding mission. The next draft will be the time to plot a quarterback move.
— Many are wondering what constitutes an agreeable offer for DK Metcalf. New York giving Seattle #10 back isn’t enough and the Seahawks might not even see #10 + #38 as enough given the aesthetics compared to the Jamal Adams trade. Here’s an idea that might do the trick. How about #10 and swapping #4 for #9? Essentially the Jets would be left with Metcalf and #9, the Seahawks with #4 and #10. That would secure a top pass rusher or offensive lineman for Seattle. It would also give the Seahawks a chance to trade down from #10 (or pick a player). The Jets get their weapon for Zach Wilson, keep their high second round picks and still retain a pick in the top-10. A bidding war of sorts could occur over the next seven days with multiple teams needing a top receiver. Metcalf is by far better than the options in the draft.
— An interesting list of players visited the VMAC over the last 24-48 hours. This included Christian Watson, Boye Mafe and Cam Taylor-Britt. Watson is incredibly quick, has great size and is considered to have a culture-setting personality. He has the gliding running style Seattle likes. It begs the question — would they take him for value in round two? Or is he a possible replacement for a certain someone? Mafe has gone from a player who seemed to have momentum and was a first rounder to settling back into round two. He could emerge as an option for Seattle in the second frame. Taylor-Britt is tenacious, lightning quick and the kind of player you’d hope for this team to draft. He is a day-two lock.
— I will keep making and adjusting projections as we edge closer to draft day. Here’s what I think is a reasonable guess for round one as of today:
#1 Jacksonville — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#6 Carolina — Ikem Ekwonu (G, NC State)
#7 NY Giants — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#8 Atlanta — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#9 Seattle — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
#10 New York Jets — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
#11 Washington — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
#12 LA Chargers (v/MIN) — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
#13 Houston — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#14 Baltimore — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia)
#15 Philadelphia — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
#16 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
#17 Minnesota (v/LAC) — Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
#18 Philadelphia — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#19 New Orleans — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
#20 Pittsburgh — Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)
#21 New England — Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
#22 Green Bay — Drake London (WR, USC)
#23 Arizona — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
#24 Dallas — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
#25 Buffalo — Quay Walker (LB, Georgia)
#26 Tennessee — Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)
#27 Tampa Bay — David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
#28 Green Bay — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
#29 Kansas City — Travis Jones (DT, Connecticut)
#30 Seattle (v/KC) — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
#31 Cincinnati — Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
#32 Detroit — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
— I continue to have the Seahawks moving back into the late first for Tyler Linderbaum, for reasons discussed a lot over the last two weeks. Tony Pauline says he hasn’t spoken to a team who has Linderbaum graded in round one. Although after his testing performance this week, I think it’s unlikely he would last to #40.
— If there’s one player I’d put money on the Seahawks drafting it’d be Dameon Pierce at Florida. Regulars to the blog won’t be surprised by that statement but he just ticks so many boxes. Explosive traits, size, running style, ability to energise team mates with his running. In round three, it feels inevitable he will be on their radar.
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It also explains the quandary facing the Seahawks.
I’ve told this story before but it’s worth relaying. Before the 2010 draft a little birdie passed on some information that the Seahawks initially had strong interest in a safety and tackle combo with their two first round picks. I never established whether this was by choice or because of the options available.
There was a feeling they were targeting Eric Berry at #6 and Trent Williams at #14. Before the combine Williams’ stock was seen to be in the mid-first round range. Berry’s stock, equally, had fluctuated a bit after a so-so final season at Tennessee.
A brilliant combine helped propel Williams well into the top-five. Berry also ran a 4.40 and jumped a 43 inch vertical. Plans changed.
Obviously I’ve never verified any of this so it could be false, although this source was reliable and passed on some other nuggets that came true, including the Marshawn Lynch trade days before it occurred (which I tweeted about and was given a credit for at the time).
They ended up taking Russell Okung at #6 and Earl Thomas at #14. All’s well that ends well. It goes to show how things shift and change during an off-season process — yet you can still come away with a satisfactory conclusion.
The point of bringing this up is I suspect the Seahawks made the Russell Wilson trade thinking there was a good chance a pass rusher would be available at #9. They talked it up as the off-season priority and Clint Hurtt directly spoke of a need for a game-wrecker. Pete Carroll stated they wanted another Darrell Taylor.
Many were mocking Jermaine Johnson as a fringe first rounder in January. A great Senior Bowl and combine has seen his stock rise and rise. Now he’s a consensus top-10 pick and probably doesn’t get out of the top-seven.
I think the Seahawks possibly had their eye specifically on him. And if not him, one of the others. Travon Walker for example. Now it appears neither will reach #9. Aidan Hutchinson definitely won’t. Only perceived character flags could make it a possibility for Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Thus, we had the Uchenna Nwosu signing — the most expensive outside free agent addition in the Carroll era. A clear sign that post combine the Seahawks knew which way this was going and needed more than a minor hedge.
Tony’s big board has Thibodeaux, Hutchinson and Walker at #1, #2 and #3. Johnson is at #7.
Kyle Hamilton was assumed to be a very high pick but that no longer seems likely. This also adds another issue where teams who might’ve considered Hamilton perhaps pivot now to the more attractive option at a more premium position (DE/OL).
If, as expected, the best pass rushers are gone — and if we assume the Seahawks have been anticipating this since the combine — they have likely been preparing an alternative non-pass-rushing plan for the #9 pick.
I would argue the next few names on Tony’s list — Charles Cross, Jordan Davis, Garrett Wilson, Hamilton, Jameson Williams — are no better than the group that follows — Derek Stingley Jr, George Karlaftis, Trevor Penning and Devin Lloyd. Either that or they play positions that aren’t needed in Seattle.
It’s what we’d call over here ‘sod’s law’. Unfortunately the Seahawks could be just out of reach of the options they truly covet. The same is likely true for Atlanta. Quarterbacks going in the top-10 would change that but I’m just not buying it. And neither are the likes of Scot McCloughan, who I interviewed recently.
This is why trading down might be more likely than it was a few months ago. It’s just the reality of the situation.
Personally I’d be open to standing pat at #9 and taking Stingley Jr because I rate him higher than Tony. But if Tony has him rated in the mid-first, and if that’s where he’s expected to go, it’s plausible to move down a few spots and still target him.
If the Seahawks don’t plan to select any cornerback early — which is also a distinct possibility given their history — I’d argue the Karlaftis/Penning/Lloyd option — combined with Zion Johnson — plus an extra day two pick, is a better scenario than staying put and taking one of the higher ranked players.
So while some fans will sneer at the prospect of another trade down given Seattle’s recent track record — it might actually be somewhat justified here.
Unless the top-10 becomes a lot more unpredictable and one of the better pass rushers or offensive linemen fall. Then you stay put. There are plenty of mocks out there predicting this slice of fortune — but none are realistic. The top four pass rushers, Evan Neal and Ikem Okwonu will not make it to #9. It means the Seahawks are going to have to adapt and adjust.
It makes it tricky to project who specifically they will take.
Stingley Jr feels like the kind of project Carroll would love to take on, thus he might be the front runner. But it’d be wrong to totally ignore the injury situation and Seattle’s preference to draft cornerbacks later.
I can see them having interest in Lloyd as an impact player in the front seven. Is another linebacker really the route to go though, in a deep linebacker class?
Penning for me isn’t necessarily a day-one starter at left tackle but they might shift him over to the right initially. He has so many technical flaws though that it’d be a risky pick to launch a rebuild.
Johnson would be a plug-and-play left guard with an outstanding profile. He might be the safest available player.
Karlaftis isn’t anything, really, like the pass rushers they’ve drafted or signed in the past. Yet there’s no doubting his high-energy, high-effort style. As I mentioned last week, a trusted talent evaluator generously passed on his comparison to me: ‘He’s Aidan Hutchinson just available later in the draft‘. Can he drop into coverage though in a 3-4? Debatable.
The no-man’s land position in this class might sadly be #8 or #9. Thus, we could see the Falcons simply take the receiver they need. The Seahawks might feel obliged to take their top option on the board whatever the position. Both teams would probably prefer to move down a bit, gain some stock and take a similarly graded player in the middle portion of the first round.
Trading down could also allow Seattle to trade up later — something they’ve had success with in the past in the round two range (Jarran Reed, DK Metcalf, Darrell Taylor).
Tony has Tyler Linderbaum at #29 on his board having previously reported that he could fall into round two. At his pro-day yesterday he ran a 4.98 forty, an outstanding 4.38 short shuttle and if he’d benched only the average amount of the combine testers his TEF would’ve been an explosive 3.07.
His size limitations will always be an issue for some teams but the other big problem was the lack of testing combined with the size. Now that he has some numbers to look at and the mystery is removed, for me it’s very unlikely he will fall out of day one.
I do think the Seahawks are very interested in him. Austin Blythe is a clear hedge. I don’t think the talk of Blythe’s size and wrestling background is a coincidence. The benefit of a hedge is you don’t necessarily have to force the issue — so it’s not a cast-iron lock that Seattle trades up to claim what would be a great prize in this draft for their scheme.
However — if they want to make this blocking scheme work, there isn’t really a better option than Linderbaum to lead from the front. He would be a fantastic choice to help launch a new era with an injection of talent, aggression and athleticism to the offensive line.
If he falls into the late 20’s it would be well worth the Seahawks looking at options to trade back into round one to secure him. Trading down from #9 would secure the extra stock to make this even more possible.
What would it cost? The 2019 draft is the last time we saw teams trading back into the late first. The Giants gave Seattle a fourth and fifth round pick to go from #37 to #30. The Falcons jumped from #45 to #31 for the price of a third round pick.
Seattle has one fourth and two fifth round picks — with the potential to add more. So moving up from #40 wouldn’t be too challenging.
Getting a quality defensive prospect and a great offensive line addition with their first two picks would match the start of the 2010 build and would, frankly, be ideal.
At #41 they would have options. They could move down again to replenish their stock, or they could seek value. What a luxury to have that extra pick this year.
The reason I think they are so interested in Michael Clemons despite people, fairly, raising his average testing results is simple. He flashes on tape the same way Darrell Taylor did. Wins in the same way Taylor won. They’ve stated they want that and he’s attending the VMAC on an official visit.
Plus you wouldn’t be taking him in the same range as L.J. Collier so the risk isn’t anywhere near comparable.
If they miss out on the top pass rushers he could easily be their mid-round fall-back option to rotate in with Taylor, Nwosu and Alton Robinson. There’s already talk of a reunion with Carlos Dunlap too.
Ideally you’d get that great pass rusher in the top-10. If that’s not possible — this still feels like a reasonable plan.
And as mentioned before — Clemons just has that alpha, aggressive, tone-setting air that this team has lacked for a few years.
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This is a guest post by Curtis Allen. Big thank you again for Curtis’ help and support for the blog. He’s a great asset for this community.
Working out the future at quarterback for the Seahawks
With the Seahawks trading Russell Wilson this year, they return to that anxious state they have avoided for the last ten seasons —needing a franchise quarterback.
It will be a truly fascinating exercise. The search will no doubt re-energize Pete Carroll’s college competition style roots and while the fan base has been thrown into uncertainty about the future prospects of the team, it most definitely won’t be boring.
There has been (and will continue to be) a lot of discussion on this subject. I wanted to contribute a bit by laying out some thoughts on the current market to get a feel for the factors the Seahawks will have to consider going forward…
The Financial Landscape
Six quarterbacks are currently making in excess of $40 million dollars per year annually. It will probably balloon to as many as nine when Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray sign extensions and Russell Wilson signs his inevitable extension with the Broncos.
This is the current reality. The cap has recovered from the pandemic and the league has signed extremely lucrative new TV deals. Quarterbacks and their agents are keeping pace by continually resetting the top of the market with their contracts.
It is possible, however, that the Cleveland Browns’ enormous contract with Deshaun Watson has upended the market and set the NFL on a completely different course. This one deal could change not just the financial landscape but also the competitive balance of the league.
That is a grandiose statement to match a grandiose contract.
What makes it such a game-changer?It is not the total dollars or the average annual value that makes it stand out.It is the fact that all $230 million of the contract is fully guaranteed. Not guaranteed for injury, or for skill, or anything else.Fully 100% guaranteed.
Comparing apples to apples, the most recent “most fully guaranteed dollars at signing” contract record-holders were Aaron Rodgers ($100m guaranteed), Josh Allen ($100m), and Dak Prescott ($95m) who signed in the last calendar year.
Those numbers have obviously been completely blown out of the water by this contract.
How big of an issue is having a fully guaranteed contract at the top of the market?
It could be huge.
The first issue is it binds the team to the player in a way previously considered unthinkable.
Teams frequently structure their top contracts to have some maneuverability in them.When fans hear a team has signed a player to a 5-year $100 million contract, they often mentally lock $20 million as an annual cap number for that player. However, the structure frequently gives the team more room to add critical pieces and the ability escape the contract before it is over if they find they need to.
For example, the Rams were able to separate themselves from the Jared Goff contract before he had even played a down on it and acquire Matthew Stafford in the deal. It cost them top draft picks and some dead money but their rash decision to extend Goff early did not prevent them from making the move.I think we can all agree that move worked out well for them.
The Browns on the other hand have zero maneuverability with Watson’s contract. After a $10 million cap hit in 2022 (structured to minimize a potential loss of income due to a suspension), the Browns will have four straight years of $54.9 million cap hits that are fully guaranteed. Watson accounts for a whopping 24.4% of the Browns’ cap all by himself in 2023.
A key detail of the contract was also revealed recently. Mike Florio has gotten hold of the Watson contract:
With his lawyer’s reading he has discerned that the contract guarantees remain in effect even if any of the 22 filed complaints result in a suspension. Typically, guarantees of this magnitude offer the team some protection. They can void the guaranteed money if there is a personal conduct violation. But the Browns have in effect waived their protections and agreed to guarantee this massive contract.
Further, the only possible mechanism the Browns could use to lower the cap hit is to convert some of that salary to bonus and push it into future seasons. And really, that just digs them deeper into the hole.
Also, a contract that large and binding acts as its own no-trade clause, which adds a whole other dimension to the move.The Browns are unequivocally committed to Watson.
It is both the biggest investment and the biggest gamble on one player in NFL history.
The contract has obviously drawn the attention of NFL owners.In a rare break from normal protocols, a fellow owner from the Browns’ own division has gone on record as being not very happy with the contract:
Part 1 of Bisciotti on impact of Deshaun Watson’s new deal with Cleveland on Jackson talks: “It’s like, ‘Damn, I wish they hadn’t guaranteed the whole contract.’ I don’t know that he should’ve been the first guy to get a fully guaranteed contract.”
Bisciotti, Part 2: “To me, that’s something that is groundbreaking, and it’ll make negotiations harder with others. But it doesn’t necessarily mean that we have to play that game, you know? We shall see.”
Bisciotti is well within his rights to express frustration. He has a pending negotiation with Lamar Jackson, who appears set on charting an unconventional path by not employing an agent and showing no apparent interest in negotiating an extension entering the final year of his rookie contract.
So, the question needs to be asked — are fully guaranteed contracts the new standard for franchise quarterbacks? Are teams going to be forced to rethink their entire payroll and team-building model and bind themselves even more tightly to this small subset of premium players?
It is clear that everyone on all sides is still reeling from the enormity of the contract. It is simply too early to tell.
Arguments against the model:Kirk Cousins secured the first big-money fully guaranteed contract in 2018, signing a three-year $84 million contract with the Vikings. How did everyone react to that contract? It did not move the needle very much at all. In short order Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers and then Russell Wilson signed market-topping deals that were not fully guaranteed. It is within the realm of possibility that the Watson contract is so utterly unmatchable that the rest of the league will have no choice but to consider it an outlier and ignore it.
Arguments for the model:Cousins was a perfect storm. He played the game beautifully. He was franchised tagged twice and then entered the market as a free agent when Washington could no longer make another tag work. He found a fit with the Vikings. They were coming off a Conference Championship loss and viewed Cousins as the missing piece. It was a shorter contract that did not reset the average annual value record.
Watson is completely different. He was under contract already. The Browns not only gave up massive capital in trade but they also bought him out of his existing contract, which was already very healthy.
We are not talking about the head-and-shoulders best player in the NFL. The total tonnage of Watson’s legal problems, missing an entire season of play and the potential of a suspension make this a juicy negotiating point for quarterbacks who are squeaky clean and have top-level performance in recent years to point to.
Agents that are strategizing and plotting their moves for the next couple of seasons that are not considering every ramification of Watson’s contract will quickly be left behind in the game.
But has it changed the entire landscape of the NFL? Again, it is too early to say. We will get a better picture when the next extensions are signed. Russell Wilson is likely next, then Kyler Murray.
Therefore, from a purely financial standpoint, it does appear that trading Wilson this offseason was the best solution for the Seahawks. Putting aside for a moment the tensions and the fact that it appears that Wilson would not sign another extension with the team, they made their move in the market at the best time they could.
Patrick Mahomes had topped $45 million per season. Aaron Rodgers was very likely to do the same soon at that point. If the Seahawks thought those numbers for Wilson were unworkable, it was time to move on. That viewpoint got validated with a giant exclamation point when the news broke of Watson’s deal.
Aside from a top salary, a new condition had been introduced.A franchise quarterback could shoot for as much guaranteed money as possible and that would simply create an untenable situation for the Seahawks, particularly with Pete Carroll at the helm.
As an aside, if you ask me, the Broncos not having Wilson sign an extension the minute he got off his jet in Denver was a very expensive mistake. They misjudged the market and it will cost them dearly.
It is possible they approached Wilson and he rebuffed them, preferring to wait and see what other top names got first. The Broncos then had a calculated decision to make and they decided that a franchise quarterback was worth the extra cost.
At any rate, it does speak to the financial windfall the Seahawks will have once Wilson’s dead cap money gets off the books next season.
There is a second element to consider with these fully guaranteed contracts, however —the funding of the contract would pose a significant challenge for some of the franchises that are in flux or are not typically flush with cash.
According to the CBA, teams must put the entire guaranteed amount of a contract in escrow to give the player security that the contract will be paid. It is routine and something that occurs every day.
But writing a check for $230 million to fund a fully guaranteed contract for your quarterback is not something all owners have the capacity to do. The Raiders traded Khalil Mack away in 2018 partially due to not having enough cash to fund the guaranteed portion of the mega-contract he was gunning for.
Other family-owned teams like the Bengals and Chargers derive most of their personal wealth from their equity share in the franchise, not from other outside business dealings. Funding that much money could be a significant challenge for them.
It is possible that if Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert look at Watson’s contract and want that kind of security on their first extension, their teams will have no choice but to either auction them off in trade, or franchise them twice and let them walk away.
This would lead to an NBA-type situation where the gap between the haves and the have-nots gets even wider.
But for the Seahawks, with the team in a trust and a sale in the near future pending, it would not make sense to commit that much money to escrow and then sell the team.Bobby Wagner got $40 million guaranteed in his last Seahawks extension. Tyler Lockett got $24 million. Jamal Adams $21 million. Those are numbers you can have on the books and not alter the course of your negotiation with a potential buyer.
But having something like $230 million committed?That would have an impact.
That is the level this new condition could go to.Affecting ownership financial strategies and decisions.
The point being, the financial implications could be poised to fully overtake the on-field impact as the primary driver of future team moves.
Really, whether the next big financial evolution for franchise quarterbacks is getting fully guaranteed contracts or simply getting a bigger piece of the salary cap pie, the cost of having a top veteran quarterback on your roster is growing.
Seeing as that is the case, the steps forward for the Seahawks are obvious.
The Seahawks Need to Regularly Invest in the Draft at Quarterback
John Schneider recently mentioned how much success his mentor and the team had in Green Bay over the years selecting quarterbacks when there was not a perceived need. That seems as big a sign as any that the Seahawks intend to follow that practice with Russell Wilson gone and Drew Lock’s long-term future in Seattle anything but certain at this point.
Schneider mentioned that the Seahawks have strayed from that method in recent years:
“One thing we haven’t done – my mentor did all the time in Green Bay – that we haven’t done a very good job of for one reason or another… is we haven’t picked quarterbacks. I don’t know why.Just for some reason since we’ve been here it hasn’t fallen that way.”
We all know why. The combination of having an incredibly durable franchise quarterback (until last year anyway) and aggressively pursuing trades that depleted the team of draft capital in recent years has pushed this strategy into the background.
No more.
With a big need there, experience with the practice and the enormous financial pressure that extending a top quarterback brings, this should be an iron-clad organizational goal to always have a quarterback in development — ‘one in the chamber’ as Schneider has termed it in the past.
Is it a rule that the Seahawks must take a quarterback in the draft every single year?No, of course not. They should only select players they feel meet their scouting standards and in a round of the draft they feel comfortable with.
As far as 2022 goes, the Seahawks have options. They can ride with Drew Lock and Jacob Eason and eventually come to terms with Geno Smith. They can squeeze the Browns to pay as much of Baker Mayfield’s contract as possible and then add him as a one-year stopgap.
They are well positioned to take a swing in this draft in either the top two rounds or in the middle rounds.
An early forecast of the 2023 draft also indicates there will be better quality available at the position than this season and the Seahawks will once again be well positioned to strike — with two first-round and two second-round picks currently.
Conventional wisdom points to saving your draft assets for 2023 and building the team up at other vital positions, making full use of a very deep 2022 draft. Personally, I agree with that logic. If the Seahawks can somehow come away from the first two rounds this year with three great non-QB prospects that would be cause for celebration.
However, in the spirit of exploring all the options, and given the quarterback climate we just discussed, there is an avenue that needs to be considered that could be potentially rewarding —taking a quarterback in the bottom half of the first round of the draft this year.
Why? From a purely financial standpoint, the Seahawks would have a cost-controlled quarterback position for five full seasons — and perhaps six if they want to make use of the franchise tag.
Take Lamar Jackson as an example. The Ravens traded up to the last pick in the 2018 first round to get him. What a shrewd move that was.
For $9.47 million, they secured four years of Jackson.They activated the first-round fifth year option last year and have him locked in 2022 for a very affordable $23 million. The franchise tag for quarterbacks in 2023 would be in the low $30 million range, which starts to get pricey — but another year of team control could easily be seen as worth the cost.
That is $62 million for six seasons. If you update those numbers to 2022 values you are probably looking at $70-75 million for six seasons.
Deshaun Watson is already halfway there with his bonus money and will eclipse it with his salary by December 2023. That is before we talk about the package of picks Cleveland sent.
So you see the value there.
Of course they are not all going to be Lamar Jacksons. The recent bottom half of the first round is littered with quarterbacks who have not shined, from Paxton Lynch to Dwayne Haskins to Jordan Love. That is before we talk about top-five picks that have not worked out. Ask Cleveland and Carolina how excited they are to be on the hook for almost $19 million guaranteed for the two guys they probably wish would just go away.
So there is risk — but the Seahawks must weigh the franchise-tilting cost of acquiring and paying a top-flight quarterback and potentially shredding their roster against the disappointment of using a first-round pick that does not produce.
For the Seahawks to take a quarterback in the bottom half of the first round this year, several things need to fall their way:
There has to be a player they really like available. As I said above, they cannot reach for a quarterback because of some slot-fill thinking or be enticed simply by finance. They have to really think he can be a factor.
He has to be available and the Seahawks have to find a suitable trade partner.
If they are going to trade some of their capital away, they have to be confident their scouting can turn up a player in the fifth round or later that has the potential to be more than a career backup.
If the Seahawks do trade D.K. Metcalf for a haul of picks, it could be reasoned that using a pick of that return on a high-leverage position like a quarterback is an easily justifiable tactic. Maybe even two if someone they really like is available in the middle rounds.
So the conditions have to be right for this to happen.
If played correctly, the Seahawks could take a quarterback this year and have the stock to acquire a top prospect next year as well if they like. Having two quarterbacks on rookie salaries hedges the position and they could be aggressive in adding talent around them for the next four seasons in free agency and other areas.
Again, my preference is stocking the roster in 2022 and waiting for superior quarterback talent in 2023. But looking at this year’s class as well is a conversation worth having.
Do not think Pete Carroll will be afraid to make the moves he deems necessary.Remember, he was introduced as the Seahawks’ head coach in January 2010. By mid-March he had traded Seneca Wallace away and acquired Charlie Whitehurst for a swap of picks in the second round of the draft that year and a next year third round pick.
He then moved on from Matt Hasselbeck and brought Tarvaris Jackson in the following year.
The year after that he did not resign Whitehurst, signed Matt Flynn to a healthy free agent deal and drafted a short quarterback from Wisconsin in the third round.
He churned the roster until he found his quarterback. He could do the same thing again as soon as this month. History and the financial aspect tell us it is a possibility that we should mentally prepare for.
A reminder that these mock drafts are a projection. This isn’t what I want to happen, necessarily. I’m running through different scenarios to create talking points.
In this two-round mock I wanted to look at a situation where the Seahawks are faced with a choice of Derek Stingley Jr at #9 or moving down. I think this could be a very real prospect for them. If it plays out that way, it comes down to taking a chance on a player who could be the best in the draft versus thinking — the injury is a concern, we haven’t taken cornerbacks early, we’ll trade down.
I’ve already done a mock with the Seahawks taking Stingley Jr — so I want to look at a different scenario here.
There are notes on Seattle’s picks after each of the full two rounds. Then I’ll run through a full seven round mock for the Seahawks.
First round
#1 Jacksonville — Travon Walker (DE, Georgia)
#2 Detroit — Aidan Hutchinson (DE, Michigan)
#3 Houston — Kayvon Thibodeaux (DE, Oregon)
#4 NY Jets — Jermaine Johnson (DE, Florida State)
#5 NY Giants — Evan Neal (G, Alabama)
#6 Carolina — Ikem Ekonwu (G, NC State)
#7 NY Giants — Sauce Gardner (CB, Cincinnati)
#8 Atlanta — Garrett Wilson (WR, Ohio State)
#9 Baltimore (v/SEA) — Trevor Penning (T, Northern Iowa)
#10 New York Jets — Derek Stingley Jr (CB, LSU)
#11 Washington — Kyle Hamilton (S, Notre Dame)
#12 LA Chargers (v/MIN) — Charles Cross (T, Miss. State)
#13 Houston — Jordan Davis (DT, Georgia) #14 Seattle (v/BAL) — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#15 Philadelphia — Devonte Wyatt (DT, Georgia)
#16 New Orleans — Jameson Williams (WR, Alabama)
#17 Minnesota (v/LAC) — Trent McDuffie (CB, Washington)
#18 Philadelphia — Andrew Booth (CB, Clemson)
#19 New Orleans — Kenny Pickett (QB, Pittsburgh)
#20 Pittsburgh — Malik Willis (QB, Liberty)
#21 New England — Zion Johnson (G, Boston College)
#22 Green Bay — Chris Olave (WR, Ohio State)
#23 Arizona — George Karlaftis (DE, Purdue)
#24 Dallas — Tyler Smith (T, Tulsa)
#25 Buffalo — Quay Walker (LB, Georgia)
#26 Tennessee — Matt Corral (QB, Ole Miss)
#27 Tampa Bay — David Ojabo (DE, Michigan)
#28 Green Bay — Drake London (WR, USC)
#29 Kansas City — Travis Jones (DT, Connecticut) #30 Seattle (v/KC) — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
#31 Cincinnati — Kaiir Elam (CB, Florida)
#32 Detroit — Nakobe Dean (LB, Georgia)
The trades
Baltimore (14) trades up with Seattle (9) for #76
The Ravens need a right tackle and are showing a lot of interest in Trevor Penning. They jump ahead of the Jets and ward-off interest from the Chargers in Penning.
LA Chargers (17) trades up with Minnesota (12) for #79
According to Tony Pauline, the Vikings are showing serious interest in Trent McDuffie and will look to move down and select him. The Chargers, meanwhile, appear to be targeting a right tackle, receiver or Jordan Davis.
Seattle (40) trades up with Kansas City (30) for #109 & 2023 R4
Explanation included in the notes below.
Thoughts on the Seahawks’ picks
The prospect of taking Derek Stingley Jr is going to be incredibly tempting. He is more than just a ‘good cornerback’. He has a big, powerful frame to combine with 4.37 speed and explosive traits. This is a player who showed as a freshman the ability to stick with elite level receivers currently bossing the NFL.
One thing I forgot to mention in my piece on Stingley Jr on Wednesday — the source I spoke to within the league said he thought he was better than Patrick Surtain.
He has no character flaws and the negatives surrounding him are overblown. Yes, the Lis Franc injury will be thoroughly investigated. I thought he looked fighting fit at his pro-day. He was also out there competing. A reminder that Sauce Gardner hasn’t done a vertical, broad, three-cone or short shuttle pre-draft.
I would take Stingley Jr. For me, it’s not even really much of a debate. I’ll take that shot on greatness and have no regrets.
Yet there are things to consider in this initial round of the mock for the Seahawks. How much is the focus in this draft going to be on the defensive front seven? After all — they’ve re-signed Sidney Jones, brought in Artie Burns and Justin Coleman and they really like Tre Brown.
Earlier this week Shelby Harris mentioned the importance of the linebackers in the Vic Fangio scheme and made reference to the importance of pressure, allowing the cornerbacks essentially to just make their plays.
The Seahawks haven’t done anything at linebacker other than the minor addition of Joel Iyiegbuniwe. It seems unlikely to me they’d just move off Bobby Wagner and then hand the starter job to Cody Barton.
At some point they’re going to add a linebacker — possibly in the first two rounds. And it could be round two. The options are good.
I do wonder though if they’ll really like Devin Lloyd. He’s one of the players in this draft you can just plug in and you’d back him to make plays right away. He’s constantly talked about as an ‘alpha’ who, as a captain, helped elevate Utah to the PAC-12 title.
He’s an ideally sized, aggressive, physical linebacker with 33 inch arms. Yet he’s also incredibly versatile and can play outside or inside. As a pass rusher he dips and bends better than some pass rushers. He ran a 1.58 10-yard split.
In a copycat league — maybe they see him doing the whole Micah Parsons thing? Some linebacker, some rushing off the edge.
It would certainly explain the readiness they had in moving on from Bobby Wagner, if they had their eye on adding Lloyd in round one.
I then have the Seahawks trading back into round one. I think a scenario where they move down from #9 and then up from #40 is extremely viable.
I don’t think it’ll be for a quarterback. I don’t think the Seahawks are going to draft a quarterback early. I do think they will be looking for core, foundation players early in this draft. People they can build around.
Lloyd fits that description and so does Tyler Linderbaum. According to Pete Carroll they signed Austin Blythe — a draft hedge — because they want to try a player with his size. They also like his wrestling background. Linderbaum has an identical body-type and an even better wrestling background in High School.
With these two picks the Seahawks may feel like they’ve added two of the best players in the draft. They may also feel like they’ve added building blocks, leaders and tone-setters.
Second round
#33 Jacksonville — Cam Jurgens (C, Nebraska)
#34 Detroit — Christian Watson (WR, North Dakota State)
#35 New York Jets — Treylon Burks (WR, Arkansas)
#36 New York Giants — Boye Mafe (DE, Minnesota)
#37 Houston — Arnold Ebiketie (DE, Penn State)
#38 New York Jets — Channing Tindall (LB, Georgia)
#39 Chicago — Jahan Dotson (WR, Penn State)
#40 Detroit (v/SEA) — Lewis Cine (S, Georgia) #41 Seattle — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
#42 Atlanta (v/IND) — Desmond Ridder (QB, Cincinnati)
#43 Atlanta — Breece Hall (RB, Iowa State)
#44 Cleveland — Perrion Winfrey (DT, Oklahoma)
#45 Baltimore — Cole Strange (G/C, Chattanooga)
#46 Minnesota — Greg Dulcich (TE, UCLA)
#47 Washington — Leo Chenal (LB, Wisconsin)
#48 Chicago — Kyler Gordon (CB, Washington)
#49 New Orleans — Kenneth Walker (RB, Michigan State)
#50 Kansas City — Nick Cross (S, Maryland)
#51 Philadelphia — Jaquan Brisker (S, Penn State)
#52 Pittsburgh — Bernhard Raimann (G, Central Michigan)
#53 Green Bay — Trey McBride (TE, Colorado State)
#54 New England — Troy Andersen (LB, Montana State)
#55 Arizona — Roger McCreary (CB, Auburn)
#56 Dallas — Sam Williams (DE, Ole Miss)
#57 Buffalo — Jalyn Armour-Davis (CB, Alabama)
#58 Indianapolis (v/ATL) — Demarri Mathis (CB, Pittsburgh)
#59 Green Bay — Logan Hall (DT, Houston)
#60 Tampa Bay — Bryan Cook (S, Cincinnati)
#61 San Francisco — Joshua Paschal (DE, Kentucky)
#62 Kansas City — Tariq Woolen (CB, UTSA)
#63 Cincinnati — Marcus Jones (CB, Houston)
#64 Denver — Nik Bonitto (OLB, Oklahoma)
The trade
Atlanta (58) trades up with Indianapolis (42) for #82
The Falcons gifted the Colts Matt Ryan. Here, Indy repays the favour. They get their third rounder back to move down 16 spots, allowing the Falcons to select Desmond Ridder.
Thoughts on the Seahawks’ pick
Just like there’s been a peculiar lack of interest in adding any kind of linebacker post-Wagner — the Seahawks haven’t exactly been active in the tackle market either. While there’s still a good chance Duane Brown returns — it’s also possible they’ve got their eye on at least one tackle in the draft.
Abraham Lucas has been a blog favourite for a long time. He had a sensational combine and for me, was by far the most impressive player during on-field drills. On top of that, he ran a 4.92 forty and an outstanding 4.40 short shuttle. He’s a 2.97 TEF tester — in range for what Seattle has looked for under Carroll and Schneider.
They could plug him in at right tackle, then re-sign Brown to play the left side and the offensive line would be complete.
Seahawks seven round mock
#14 — Devin Lloyd (LB, Utah)
#30 — Tyler Linderbaum (C, Iowa)
#41 — Abraham Lucas (T, Washington State)
#72 — Dameon Pierce (RB, Florida)
It’ll almost be a surprise if the Seahawks don’t select Pierce. He has the size and explosive traits they love. His physical brand of punishing running is right in the Chris Carson, Thomas Rawls, Marshawn Lynch ball-park. Even if he ends up somewhere else, this guy is a Seahawk.
#76 — Michael Clemons (DE, Texas A&M)
According to Brady Henderson he’s taking an official visit to Seattle. He has 35 inch arms and looks the part. It’s his attitude that stands out though. The guy is angry as hell after losses and just has that look in his eye. The look we haven’t seen in these parts since Kam Chancellor. The way he looks and speaks — it’s BAMF territory.
#152 — Percy Butler (S, Louisiana)
A special teams freak, Butler will be an immediate contribution as a gunner. He has the potential to be developed into more over time but his day one impact on special teams could easily see him go much earlier than this.
#153 — Matt Henningsen (DT, Wisconsin)
If the Seahawks like Logan Hall early but don’t get a chance to take him, Henningsen could be a consolation prize. He ran a remarkable 4.29 short shuttle at the Badgers’ pro-day, a 7.19 three cone and then added a 37.5 inch vertical and a 9-11 broad jump — all at 290lbs.
#230 — Ja’Tyre Carter (G, Southern)
He’s a 2.98 TEF tester who played tackle in college. The Rams liked to convert tackles inside to guard and Carter could be a flyer to see if he can pull that off.
What would trading D.K. Metcalf look like?
Let’s say the Jets offered #10 and #38. You could do all of the above — but now add in Derek Stingley Jr and one of the other players in the top half of round two.
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