Author: Rob Staton (Page 60 of 428)

I’ve spent a lot of time since it was announced Pete Carroll was departing weighing up potential replacements. There are some strong candidates but one coach more than any other stands out.

I want the Seahawks to appoint Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson.

The man who replaces Carroll needs to tick several boxes. He needs to be a great communicator — a CEO type more than just an effective coordinator. He needs to be leading an offense or defense that is enjoying transferrable success. He needs to be able to build a strong staff. He needs to be able to set a new culture and have clarity on what his football team is going to be.

I believe Johnson is the man most likely to tick all of these boxes.

Firstly, let’s look at what he’s done in Detroit. He was initially tight ends coach when Dan Campbell took the Lions job. After a miserable 0-8-1 start in Campbell’s first year, he decided to demote offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn. Johnson was promoted to be Detroit’s new offensive coordinator the following February.

Here’s what has happened since then. Under Lynn, the Lions had the 29th ranked offense per DVOA. Johnson then took over and Detroit had the 7th ranked offense in 2022. This year, they had the 5th ranked offense. That’s what you call having an impact.

Quickly word was spreading that Detroit had one of the bright young coaching stars on their books. Bengals coach Zac Taylor, who had worked with Johnson in Miami, commented on his ability in the week of Cincinnati’s Super Bowl match-up against the Rams:

“I’ve tried to hire Ben many, many, many times. He always just gets promoted to where I can’t get him. [Lions coach] Dan [Campbell] knows that,” Taylor told reporters. “I’ve always tried to find a place for him on staff, whether it’s offense, defense, special [teams], it doesn’t matter. He’s one of those guys you want on your staff because he’s brilliant.”

Dan Campbell inherited Johnson and kept him on when he took over from Matt Patricia. Eric Woodyard at ESPN notes why the coach took a shine to his talented coordinator:

Campbell describes Johnson as a “chess player”. He says Johnson puts a lot of time and thought into getting certain players touches and when to call plays, which, according to Campbell, is key in building the gameplan for the week.

“He can identify quickly things that, ‘Man, I know I’ve got to be better here. I won’t ever do that again. Man, if we play these guys again, this is exactly what I would do,'” Campbell said.

“He’s got an answer for all of it in real time and the more he memory banks, he just keeps getting better and better and growing. And then even from the game-plan standpoint, putting players in the best position to have success.”

This is all very appealing. You have a 37-year-old coach viewed as a star in his field. He has produced at a high level for the Lions, transforming their offense. The results speak for themselves.

I think Johnson’s work in Detroit specifically speaks to what the Seahawks need. He has achieved great results with Jared Goff. Stylistically, Goff might be different to Geno Smith. Yet their PFF rankings for 2023 (Goff 11th, Smith 13th) suggests they are two players of a similar level. Let’s not forget that the Rams essentially palmed Goff off on the Lions in order to acquire Stafford. Johnson isn’t succeeding because he’s had the fortune to work with Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen. He’s succeeding because he’s helped Goff perform at a good level.

For me, it’s time for the Seahawks to embrace where their talent is on the roster. Currently they are not a power-running team who can play great defense, as Carroll desired. Their key components are their young skill players — DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. They have a quarterback who is experienced and capable. They used a top-10 pick on a pass-protecting left tackle in Charles Cross.

These players should form the new identity and focal point for the team. Johnson is ideally placed to make this happen.

Let’s start with the running backs. The Seahawks have used two second round picks on Walker and Charbonnet, yet received minimal return from that investment in 2023. Detroit also spent big on the position — signing David Montgomery then using a high first round pick on Jahmyr Gibbs.

Montgomery had 1015 yards this year, Gibbs had 945. The pair combined for 23 rushing touchdowns and produced the NFL’s fifth best rushing attack. Three of the teams above them in the rankings feature running quarterbacks, so really the only team with the better pure ground game was the San Francisco 49ers.

That’s the kind of production you need if you spend high picks on running backs.

In the passing game, Johnson helped turn Amon-Ra St.Brown into a star. He had 1515 receiving yards this year (third in the league, only behind Tyreek Hill and Ceedee Lamb) and 10 touchdowns. They know how to feature him and feed him the ball — St.Brown had the fifth most targets in 2023 (164). The Seahawks badly need someone who can create a system to max-out Metcalf, Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett (if he remains on the roster).

Then there’s Sam LaPorta — second round rookie tight end. He was a revelation this year, catching 10 touchdowns and recording 889 receiving yards. When’s the last time the Seahawks featured a tight end in this way? It’s such a crucial position in the modern NFL and they need a big-time tight end target going forward.

Everything is set for Johnson to come in and emulate what he’s achieved in Detroit. He can take Seattle’s offense to new heights and with a complementary defense in tow, there’s no reason why as soon as next season the Seahawks couldn’t emulate the Lions and be a dangerous playoff team. How many other franchises can offer that?

Tyler Dunne had an excellent write-up on Johnson:

The Lions have transformed from 3-13-1 to 9-8 to 11-5 contenders with Johnson, the OC, building one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. His play design is innovative. His playcalling, fearless. Production speaks for itself: Detroit ranks sixth in passing (4,286 yards), fourth in rushing (2,241 yards) and have scored the third-most touchdowns (54) in the NFL. Jared Goff revitalized his career. When this unit is synchronized, rushing lanes part like the sea. Receivers are wide open. There are flea-flickers… and third-down passes to Penei Sewell… and 2-point passes to Taylor Decker. The Lions turn Sundays into backyard football.

Most owners crave offensive minds at the edge of innovation. That’s why the coaching trees of Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan were pillaged. Those who are a step behind will resemble dinosaurs — fast. That was the problem in Carolina. Frank Reich’s playbook was suddenly collecting cobwebs and the Panthers had too much invested in Bryce Young. It’s no shock Carolina reportedly covets Johnson.

This is a good video detailing how Johnson succeeds on a schematic level. You’ll need to head to YouTube to watch it as the NFL has blocked the footage appearing on other sites but it’s well worth seeing:

Dunne also highlighted the culture Dan Campbell has created in Detroit and why it would be useful for the Seahawks, in their current form, to try and tap into this:

This Lions staff full of former pros — Campbell, Aaron Glenn, Antwaan Randle-El, Mark Brunell — is all business, he explained. There’s no showboating, no screwing around. The Lions are “not putting up with any bullshit,” he said. There’s maximum effort from guys up and down the roster. It’s nonstop. It’s relentless. Receivers block. Corners hit. “They don’t care about the score or nothing,” McGinn added. “Those coaches are on these people. I can just imagine what it’s like behind closed doors.”

I can’t imagine the Jamal Adams tweets, Tariq Woolen grabbing his crotch, cigars in the locker-room after missing the playoffs and players saying ‘the Rams wanted it more than us’ would cut it on Campbell’s watch and there’s a chance Johnson would bring that approach to Seattle.

At the start I mentioned you need to be a CEO type, not just a good play-caller or position coach. Johnson’s press conferences, which I’ve watched in the last 24 hours, show a charismatic, personable coach. He enjoys a good relationship with the Detroit media and speaks well. You can see why he graduated from North Carolina with a degree in mathematics and computer science — he’s clearly intelligent with the way he speaks. To me, he comes across in a very similar way to Sean McVay.

Dunne explains that Johnson has the necessary communication skills to be a Head Coach:

Johnson is described as an effective teacher. He’s able to transfer everything players see on film to the field.

“A gifted communicator,” Blough says. “His whole career has just been founded in hard work where he’s been the grinder just his whole time and he’s not afraid to be creative. So he maximizes his guys’ skill-sets and then allows them to go and play fast because of the way he communicates the details. His gift is definitely communicating details.”

The only question mark for me is his ability to build a great staff — but that’s a question for all candidates. I can’t say with any certainty that any of the candidates would be able to do that. Campbell did a good job building his staff in Detroit, so he can maybe pull from that group.

Clearly he would need a good defensive coordinator. I’d quite like to tap into Brandon Staley, who feels like a good personality match with Johnson and had success with the Rams as a defensive coordinator, even if he struggled as a Head Coach. Alternatively, the Seahawks could aim to appoint a very experienced ‘wise head’ to support Johnson. That worked between McVay and Wade Phillips in LA. Or perhaps Johnson has someone in mind from Campbell’s Detroit staff?

Regardless, he is my preferred candidate as of today. The NFL is an offensive-minded league. If the Seahawks draft a quarterback soon, it’d be beneficial to have an offensive-minded Head Coach to work with that player. John Schneider’s background is in Green Bay, where they have consistently had an offensive leader and a team built around the QB — Mike Holmgren, Mike McCarthy, Matt LaFleur, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers and now Jordan Love.

I think this was would be a better bet than simply appointing Dan Quinn, who never produced more than an average defense in Atlanta where he didn’t have the Legion of Boom or Micah Parsons. His Falcons record without Kyle Shanahan was 24-29. Quinn has key qualities as a communicator, leader and he’s well respected in Seattle. I’m still not sold on his ability to elevate this team to where it wants to get to. I don’t think he’d have a chance to be the best coach in the NFC West and it was unnerving seeing the 49ers destroy Dallas during the regular season.

The aim has to be to appoint someone who can go toe-to-toe with Shanahan and McVay. Johnson, to me, feels like he’s cut from the same cloth. He is a hot candidate among the teams with vacancies and the Seahawks will be an appealing gig based on the talent on the roster, especially on offense, plus the chance to work with a proven GM, at a great facility with a supportive and ambitious ownership group.

Ben Johnson is the man I hope will be coaching the Seahawks in 2023.

I discussed the runners and riders in a new video below, check it out:

I’m going to get into a lot of things here, point by point. I’ll offer takes on ownership, memories of Pete Carroll’s career in Seattle, what I think happens next, who I’d like to see considered to replace Carroll and more.

I’ll be live on VSiN at 4pm PT and you can listen live here.

Seattle’s ownership deserves credit

For a long time, people have tried to state what they think they know about Jody Allen, Bert Kolde and the ownership group running the Seahawks. It’s now official. They are determined for this team to succeed on their watch and are keen for the standards set by Paul Allen to continue.

They didn’t shirk the decision to green-light the Russell Wilson trade. They were prepared to move on from a long-standing coach in Portland. Now, they’ve parted ways with the most successful and high-profile coach in Seattle sports.

It would’ve been very easy to just press on with Carroll, change the coordinators and give it another go next season. They haven’t done that and it’s the right decision. They’ve been bold, proactive and the message this sends to fans is — they want this team to be more competitive.

Change was necessary. The team hasn’t been a proper contender since the 2014 Super Bowl. Avoiding being bad or awful isn’t enough. You’ve got to strive for greatness, even if it’s incredibly difficult to reach that level. Settling for less because you’re not a horrible team is no way to run things.

The next Head Coach may or may not work out. That’s sport. If it doesn’t work out, you move on to the next one. That’s what Paul Allen did in 2009. That worked out pretty well. You can’t fear change. You have to run towards it, embrace it and accept that this is a challenge that must be taken on.

I’m grateful to follow a team where the ownership isn’t settling. Jody Allen and Bert Kolde have shown they mean business. It’ll be intriguing to see what the next era of Seahawks football brings.

It’s clear Carroll was fired

As soon as I read the statement from Jody Allen, it was obvious what’d happened.

Carroll is too respected and too important to flat-out fire. It was always going to be billed as mutual, it’s the respectful thing to do. The note that he would take on an advisors role was just a way of softening the statement. He is not a key decision maker, he is not VP of football operations, he will not be picking the next coach. He has been fired, they’re just not going to phrase it that way.

Yet Carroll in his press conference made it clear he had wanted to continue:

“I competed hard to stay as head coach. So that we could continue to be successful. That’s what I was representing in our discussions.”

I did a video on Monday saying I thought his Brock & Salk interview was a pitch to ownership. I believe that more than ever now. What he was saying was ultra positive yet unconvincing. The talk of being ‘close’ didn’t chime with reality. Thankfully, it appears Allen and Kolde were similarly unconvinced.

It was also made clear in Carroll’s press conference that he has no sway on who replaces him. John Schneider is going to lead the search, supported by ownership.

Schneider deserves this opportunity

It’s never been made clear which big decisions over the last 14 years were Carroll’s, Schneider’s or a combination of the two.

For that reason, it makes it hard to judge Schneider and his suitability to essentially lead the Seahawks’ football operation, which he’s now doing.

What I would say is this — Schneider is incredibly well respected within the league. I’m not going to say I’ve got a ton of sources to fall back on but you’ve seen the people I’ve had a chance to interview over the years. As a talent evaluator and GM, Schneider is seen in the top bracket by many.

People love to push credit away from Carroll and Schneider for building one of the all-time great rosters in the early years but that would be a mistake. Not only that, Schneider has a fantastic eye for quarterbacks. He drafted Wilson, made it clear how much he rated Patrick Mahomes (not with hindsight either, we all know where that report came from minutes after Kansas City traded up for him). There was also a ton of smoke around Schneider’s interest in Josh Allen, before Allen took his year-three stride as a pro.

Schneider’s background is with Green Bay, a consistently competitive franchise. He’s worked with some of the best front office staff to ever do it. Given Seattle’s desire to be newly competitive, probably draft a quarterback soon and go in a new direction, I can’t think of anyone better suited for the role.

His last two draft classes were universally praised and it’s time to build on that with another big off-season, starting with a first opportunity to hire a new Head Coach.

Who could replace Carroll?

A lot of the big-name reporters immediately connected Dan Quinn to the Seahawks and it’s understandable why, given his ties to the franchise. It’s inevitable they will request an interview with Quinn and he could be the next Head Coach.

It’s not a formality he’ll be their guy, though.

Firstly — Adam Schefter reported on Saturday that Jerry Jones is determined not to lose Quinn. So much so, in fact, that if Dallas’ playoff journey flounders — he might be prepared to fire Mike McCarthy and install Quinn as the Cowboys’ Head Coach.

If you want Quinn in Seattle, you probably need to root for a strong post-season performance from Dallas.

I have mixed thoughts on the possibility. Quinn knows the franchise, is highly respected and he has vital experience as a Head Coach (leading Atlanta to a Super Bowl they should’ve won). I think he’ll do a good job building a staff and I’m enthused at the thought of Al Harris (yes, that Al Harris) joining him in Seattle as a possible defensive coordinator. Harris is a dude.

At the same time, Quinn’s best jobs in football have coincided with working with the LOB in Seattle and Micah Parsons and co. in Dallas. When in Atlanta, his defenses were consistently average. The Falcons reached the Super Bowl off the back of a MVP season from Matt Ryan, courtesy of Kyle Shanahan’s coaching. As soon as Shanahan took the 49ers gig, the Falcons became very average very quickly.

I fear that without an elite offensive coordinator and/or elite defensive stars, Quinn’s Seahawks could end up looking a lot like the Falcons between 2017 and 2020, where their total record was 24-29 under Quinn’s leadership. It’s also hard to shake watching Shanahan’s 49ers hammer the Cowboys this year.

For that reason, I’ve been hoping for an extensive and open-minded search. The Seahawks have not had one of these for a long time. Mike Holmgren, Jim Mora and Pete Carroll were all singled out. I like the idea of a process taking place this time.

This tweet is encouraging:

As for the Seahawks’ next HC, Cowboys DC Dan Quinn is still very highly regarded in Seattle and has been a hot name the past couple hiring cycles, but the Seahawks are expected to cast a wide net in the search for Carroll’s replacement. https://t.co/K1rLXzBgs7

— Jeff Howe (@jeffphowe) January 10, 2024

Who would I like to see considered?

There are obvious names and then some wildcard suggestions I want to bring up.

Detroit offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has helped the Lions to 12 wins this year thanks to DVOA’s fifth-ranked offense. He has had great success working with Jared Goff, who is comparable (in my opinion) to Geno Smith. Johnson has shown he can max-out a one-two punch at running back, he’s done an excellent job featuring his key weapons and he turned Sam LaPorta into a rookie star at tight end.

He’s an absolute must-interview for the Seahawks. They need someone who can do all of this with the arsenal of skill-players Seattle has on offense.

Bob Slowik the Houston offensive coordinator is a serious up-and-comer who is from the same old Washington coaching staff that once had Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay working together. He’s done an outstanding job with C.J. Stroud, which could be important if the Seahawks draft a quarterback soon. All of the Shanahan/McVay tree Head Coaches have delivered a base-level of offensive success that has kept their teams relevant. That can’t be ignored.

Mike MacDonald, the Ravens defensive coordinator, inherited the 28th ranked defense per DVOA. He made it a top-ten unit in his first season (#8) and this season they are ranked #1. He’s done it without a blue-chip, elite pass rusher. He’s got everything out of re-treads like Jadeveon Clowney, developed people like Justin Madubuike into a star and if the Seahawks want someone who can turn around their defense — he’s shown he can do it. He also recently gave the Niners and Shanahan fits in a big win in Santa Clara.

These are the three obvious names I would suggest. There are some others I would pitch.

Bengals offensive coordinator Brian Callahan worked closely with Payton Manning during his time in Denver. He’s been part of a Cincinnati staff that drafted and developed Joe Burrow and this year, when they lost Burrow, still enjoyed success with Jake Browning. I’ve watched interviews with Callahan and his approach is very modern and he emphasises the importance of dynamic offense. His father, Bill, is arguably the best offensive line coach in the NFL and could be persuaded to swap Cleveland for Seattle.

The Browns are worth looking at, given how brilliantly they’ve played despite the chaos going on in Cleveland. If Kevin Stefanski was willing to be coaxed out of the disaster zone that is the Browns, I’d be willing to put a trade offer into Cleveland. After all, they face cap hell from next year thanks to Deshaun Watson’s contract. Ownership isn’t great. Maybe you could steal him away — but it would likely be expensive via trade.

Assuming that doesn’t happen, why not look at Alex Van Pelt his offensive coordinator? He’s been in the league a long time. He has ties to Green Bay like Schneider. He’s also the quarterbacks coach in Cleveland and look at what he’s done with Joe Flacco — or P.J. Walker for that matter. Would he be worth an interview?

I would set up an interview with Brian Flores in Minnesota. He did what seemed like a good job in Miami until he was ousted. His Vikings defense is ranked #11 per DVOA. He would be a very different personality to Carroll but that’s not such a bad thing as you initiate change.

Who I don’t think is very likely to be a contender

There’s no way Schneider is appointing Jim Harbaugh. He’s just gained control from Carroll and Harbaugh will command huge personnel sway in his next job. It doesn’t feel like a personality match at all and the thought of Carroll being replaced by his old arch-nemesis doesn’t feel realistic. Further to that, Harbaugh has connections to the Raiders and their owner and might prefer to stay closer to family in Washington with the Commanders. I just can’t see him in Seattle — although I suppose he might like to get after the Niners twice a year.

Mike Vrabel’s personality — I think — could be similar to Schneider’s. I think they have the same sense of humour, based purely on what I’ve gleaned from Vrabel over the years. Even so, he seems destined for New England. If not, you also have to wonder how wise it’d be to go with a coach who just left a job because he didn’t agree with the last two GM’s and the direction of the team. His offensive schemes and hires have also felt archaic at times.

I’d be perfectly happy to take a chance on Kalen DeBoer, who just seems special. However, I think Husky fans can relax. Expect a big contract extension soon. If he ever does end up in the NFL, he’ll likely seek a lot of control. I think Schneider is very much going to be searching for someone from within the NFL.

My preference is…

You have to find a way to stop Shanahan and McVay. There are two ways to do it. Hire an offensive coach who can match their ability and go toe-to-toe. Or, you need to hire a defensive coach with the ability to keep them guessing, not be predictable and get after them.

My preference would be to get a bright offensive mind, make your identity your skill players and focus on point scoring. Schneider is from Green Bay where they traditionally go for offensive-minded coaches with quarterbacks as the focal point of the team. My guess is he will go in that direction, while appointing an experienced defensive coordinator to produce a complementary defense.

I am OK with going for another defensive coach but am more inclined to go with a rising star like MacDonald, leading an impressive unit that is doing more with less, than a re-tread coach who has benefited from star players like Quinn and struggled to produce a great defense in his prior coaching job.

Thank you, Pete Carroll

I remember it like it was yesterday. I was a freelance journalist, sat in the office towards the end of my shift. The report appeared online that Jim Mora had been fired. I saw it on Rotoworld because there was no Twitter back then. Shortly after it was revealed Pete Carroll was likely coming in.

I was excited. Seahawks Draft Blog was two years old. I knew all about USC. I liked the ambitious, flashy hire. It felt like exactly the right appointment for the time.

Mora struggled to set out his vision for the team. After one press conference, Carroll made it abundantly clear what the Seahawks were going to be about.

Right from that 2010 season everything felt like an adventure. There were so many crazy games. Moments that defined an era of NFL football, not just within the Seahawks franchise.

I’ll never forget scaring my poor little dog, George, when celebrating ‘Beastquake’. I remember being in Seattle for Richard Sherman’s first start in 2011. I remember staying up all night to watch a blossoming team beat up the Eagles and bully the Ravens. Then in 2012, the Russell Wilson pick. The win against the Niners in 2012 — perhaps my favourite win and the moment when it felt real, that the Seahawks could actually win a Championship.

My son was born on the day of the win in Houston in 2013. A typical Carroll rollercoaster. I celebrated that win with extra gusto, emotional from a dramatic, long day — after being forced to leave my wife and first-born child in the hospital because she needed to stay overnight and visiting hours were up. The Seahawks made the best day of my life even more special.

The NFC Championship win against the Niners. The Super Bowl.

The legends who were born. One of the greatest defense’s in league history, playing for our team. Marshawn Lynch and Kam Chancellor, setting the tone. Wilson’s brilliance. The LOB.

I have two main teams in my sporting life — the Seahawks and the England national team. I’ll never have more sporting satisfaction in my life than that run between 2011 and 2013.

Things had come to a natural end and I regret that we had to spend as much time as we did discussing it. We couldn’t avoid it though. It was time.

I look forward, now, to reflecting on everything that was great about the early Carroll years. I’ll watch Rain City Redemption again.

And what a press conference to end. As good as it gets. Carroll, highly emotional, ending with a hilarious, killer line.

Q: “If the Bears had won, do you think you’d be in this position?”

A: “Not today!”

It’s going to be a fascinating next few days and weeks — so stick with Seahawks Draft Blog as we’ll be producing articles, streams, videos, radio spots and podcast appearances.

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I don’t want this to be a repeat of what I’ve said about the Head Coach so I’ll take this in a different direction. Here are the pressing issues facing the Seahawks this off-season, in my opinion, if Pete Carroll isn’t about to imminently depart…

Create cap space

The Seahawks are currently $9.4m in debt when it comes to effective cap space, according to Over The Cap. They won’t be able to do anything until they make some big decisions on existing, expensive players.

Cutting Bryan Mone will save $5.9m and that’s a no-brainer. It should be equally inevitable to finally move on from Jamal Adams, designating him as a post-June 1st cut to save $16.5m.

That would give you $13m to spend in free agency but they’ll need more. They have too many free agents (you can see the list here) who need re-signing or replacing. Cutting Will Dissly would save another $7m and Dee Eskridge $1.5m. I don’t think you can afford to hack away at the roster, however tempting that might be. You’d need to part with at least one more big earner though. The underwhelming Dre’Mont Jones saves you $11.5m if he’s designated as a post-June 1st cut, Quandre Diggs saves $11m if he’s cut out-right and Tyler Lockett saves $17m as a post-June 1st departure. You might have to pick one of those three.

Geno Smith has to be retained because otherwise you back yourself into a corner for the draft. His salary is three times what it was in 2023 though ($31.2m) so that number has to come down. A negotiation is inevitable to create further cap relief.

It’s time to churn again

I would prioritise retaining Leonard Williams. He played well enough to want to keep around. Spare me the ‘sunk-cost fallacy’ reply — it’ll be malpractice to waste a second rounder for 10 games only, given how well Williams played.

I’d do what it takes to keep him. He’s better than Dre’Mont Jones, who you gave $17.1m a year last off-season. Williams is older but again, he’s better.

Every other free agent is a big old shrug of the shoulders. Do not overpay for Jordyn Brooks, Damien Lewis, Noah Fant or anyone else. Let them reach free agency and let the market come to you. This team did not play well enough this off-season to run it back.

It’s time to churn the roster and look to find value and attitude. Find individuals who are going to hold each other accountable, tackle properly, execute the scheme as intended and play with greater physicality.

I’d happily cut or trade a couple of surprise players to send a message if that’s what’s needed. This team playing soft against Pittsburgh should leave a scar on the Seahawks franchise as they head into the off-season. It might be headache-inducing to initiate another reset after just two years but there’s no choice.

Always compete, right? If you’re just going to bring this bunch back for more of the same, it’s the opposite of competing. The place needs a shake-up. A kick up the backside is required. This means letting players walk and bringing in new ones. They need some of the ruthlessness we saw in 2010.

Prioritise the trenches

Look at Michigan last night. Look at the 49ers and Ravens. Look at the Browns. Look what the Steelers did to you in week 17. If the Seahawks want to compete with the big guns they’ve got to prioritise the big bodies.

Please, finally, shift resource from safety and linebacker and move it to the two lines. We’ve been asking for this for years. Nobody is saying they’ve done nothing up front. A top-10 pick at left tackle, big money on Dre’Mont Jones and the Leonard Williams trade is evidence of investment. It’s only half of the puzzle, though. You can do even more if you just stop spending so much at linebacker and safety, especially when the production doesn’t match the investment.

It’s a loaded O-line draft. Some big name defensive linemen are set to reach free agency. Go all-in up front and then worry about linebacker and safety after. Find speed, tackling ability and toughness for those positions and crack on. Very few teams are making a big splash at safety these days.

Seattle should aspire to be a top-five trenches team and they shouldn’t stop striving to achieve that goal until they reach it.

Draft a quarterback

The transfer portal, big names returning to school and the rise in stock of certain players makes this harder than expected a few weeks ago. Plus, having no second rounder also makes it tricky.

It should still be an aim. It’s been too long since the Seahawks took a chance on a young QB — either to develop or start. Two since 2010 is not enough. They can’t wait for the perfect prospect to land in their lap. They need to take a few shots.

Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye seem destined to be taken #1-3. Any other player, in my opinion, is on the table for the Seahawks. Michael Penix Jr will not go as high as some think for reasons explained here and here. Bo Nix is a day two pick and J.J. McCarthy is not an exciting prospect.

Spencer Rattler is the wildcard for me and could propel his stock way up in the coming weeks. Whether he does or not, he’s one to watch.

They could try to move up. I’m not sure Mike Vrabel has particularly enjoyed working with young quarterbacks in Tennessee. If he ends up replacing Bill Belichick in New England, is it possible the Seahawks could make a big move to #3 with Geno Smith used as a trade chip with picks? It’s fanciful and unlikely but it’s the only scenario I can imagine where the Seahawks make a move, guaranteeing themselves one of the top-three QB’s in the class. It’d cost a fortune, reminiscent of the Trey Lance, Russell Wilson and Bryce Young trades. I don’t think it’s likely.

If it’s simply not possible to draft a QB, then fine. But the intention should be there.

If Pete Carroll stays, hire serious coordinators

Kris Richard, Ken Norton Jr, Clint Hurtt. No more internal defensive coordinator appointments. No more wishy-washy offensive hires either. It’s time to go big game hunting. Get a couple of guys you can trust to run both units and let them cook.

Carroll’s complete circle is more of a complete donut at this point (but far less palatable). He’s had a go at controlling everything, creating his identity and having his guys put together his football team. It’s time for him to take a step back and go for the best coordinators money can buy. Split the circle and emphasise details, execution and toughness.

If he doesn’t like the idea, shake hands and part ways. (That’s what I’d like to see anyway but I promised not to go there…)

If you think Wink Martindale can come in and turn around the defense, go and get him and his entourage that have just left New York. Then hand him the keys to the defense. I’m sceptical if he’s what Seattle’s looking for, given he handed-off a 28th ranked DVOA defense to Mike McDonald (who has since bumped it up to #8 in 2022 and #1 in 2023) in Baltimore. You get the gist though. Make a splash.

On offense, go and identify someone who is a serious up-and-comer. Other teams seem to manage it, why can’t you? Kudos for having a go with Shane Waldron but his route concepts and adjustments when things stall aren’t good enough. You need someone who can consistently challenge opponents with an arsenal of skilful playmakers and put points on the board. Too often this year the offense has ground to a halt for long stretches.

The issue is, I’m not sure any coordinator worth his salt will want to come. This hasn’t been a team where staff have developed their reputations. Working under Carroll, especially as a defensive coordinator, might not be attractive. That’s possibly why they’ve relied on internal hires.

That said, trying the same things over and over again isn’t producing results. If Carroll isn’t on board with a plan to go big and bold, you have to shift to a new era.

Create more accountability

In the last few weeks we’ve had poorly judged cigars in the locker room, embarrassing crotch-grabbing from a young cornerback after fluking an ugly win and Jamal Adams’ shameful twitter spat. Prior to this, we had the Head Coach admitting his team wasn’t ready for the Thanksgiving game against the 49ers and players were confessing the Rams ‘wanted it more’ in week one.

This is a shambles.

Carroll cannot rely on Carl ‘Tater’ Smith and his son Nate for accountability. Someone needs to come in and do a better job of keeping standards high. Equally, the Seahawks should be making major changes to their staff and roster to ensure the shenanigans we saw in 2023 isn’t repeated next season.

The whole tone around the team has to be different going forward.

There’s a broader draft media point I want to make in a moment but I wanted to offer some brief, instant reaction thoughts on Michigan’s win against Washington in the National Championship game.

The ref’s had a very poor night, missing holds committed by Michigan players (I have less of an issue with the ones they called on Washington, you just want consistency). That said, look at what happened in the game overall. Michigan dominated the trenches with or without some favourable calls. They ended with 303 rushing yards and once again, all J.J. McCarthy had to do was manage the game.

You have to doff your cap to Jim Harbaugh. He inherited a team that was miles away. He’s been in the news for various reasons this year but he’s taken his school to the summit in an era where that has been especially hard to do with Georgia and Alabama a constant threat. They play typically tough, physical, beat-you-up football. They did all this without their best offensive lineman, Zak Zinter.

The Washington offensive line, which has been so strong all year, struggled. With an injured star running back, they never found much consistency or fluidity.

It’s another example of how often games are won in the trenches. You can have the big explosive passing offense but it doesn’t hold a candle to beating your opponent up inside. Note to Seahawks — that’s where you haven’t been good enough for years and that’s why you can’t create the identity you want.

My main focus, though, was the quarterbacks. And this is where the broader point on draft media comes in.

There were so many people overreacting to the Texas game, vaunting Michael Penix Jr into the top-five discussion and getting carried away. This influences people — and we see it time and time again. It’s no different when someone has a good pro-day. The overreaction that occurs is widespread and frustrating.

When you watch a full season-load of games for these players and even interview some of them, or speak to well placed sources, and then one pundit delivers a hot take after one game — you can’t do anything to push back against it. In that moment, you’re facing a tidal wave of opposition. Even something as minor as a decent pro-day for Malik Willis is enough to have people projecting him for the top-five, bemoaning their team passing on him and calling out decision makers online. Yet he never had any justifiable reason to go earlier than round three and that’s exactly where he landed.

What we saw today was the context I’ve tried to bring on Penix Jr. Undoubtedly, he has a great arm. We’ve seen that all season. He also showed last week he can have games where he moves around and makes plays, can deliver downfield passes with extreme accuracy and he’s a playmaker who has elevated his team.

In my article last week I also noted that he had an eight game stretch this season where his completion percentage plummeted from 74.9% in the first five games to 60.1%. His PFF grade also dipped from 89.9 to 71.6. This all coincided with an increase in pressures from 6.6 per game to 10.7 per game. Once the ‘easy pitch-and-catch’ games were gone, the production and performance dropped.

People mentioned injuries, illness and the weather — but his ‘big time throw’ percentage remained consistent throughout the season at 2.6 per game. I watched all of these games and saw a player who was just ‘off’ for a stretch, had some misses and also resorted to trying too many deep-balls thrown to areas rather than delivered with precision.

He now has 11 interceptions for the season. In comparison, C.J. Stroud only had 12 picks in his entire time at Ohio State.

Today we saw one of the other concerns I’ve voiced. There’s no doubting that Penix can throw the deep-ball brilliantly and make big plays. However, at the next level he’s going to face pressure like this quite often. There’s very little evidence on tape he can play a patient intermediate game, taking what’s on offer and playing with a more methodical style.

Today his head just looked scrambled as soon as the pressure started hitting home. He missed easy, wide-open opportunities where a bit of poise and clarity of mind would’ve put points on the board. By the end he was left throwing all over the place again with his technique out the window — finishing with only 52.9% completed passes.

Last week people were comparing the Texas performance to Stroud vs Georgia, which wasn’t right. Stroud felt the same kind of pressure we saw today, against one of the best college defense’s ever, and made impossible plays happen with his legs and arm. Penix felt frantic, compromised and constantly seeking any kind of rhythm.

He wasn’t helped by drops and some fierce Michigan play. Yet overall I think this validates what I’ve been trying to argue for most of the season. He has incredible, unquestioned arm talent and that has a lot of value. If you can protect him and give him time, he can hurt opponents. I think his ceiling is a bigger-armed Tua and there’s real value in that.

I’m not sure he’s going to have the smoothest transition into a NFL offense and his arm strength and big-play ability will need to be weighed up against whether he can manage from the pocket and play the percentages on an intermediate level. That couches his stock — so while two-thirds of Seahawks twitter was calling for the team to trade up for him seven days ago, I think we’re back to reality now. I’m saying this as someone who has seen all of Penix Jr’s 2023 games and watched him live. I like him — but we need to be realistic.

This is, of course, without even mentioning the injury history or the fact some teams just won’t want a lefty QB.

Caleb Williams will be the #1 pick. Given the way the draft order fell, I would expect Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye to complete the top three, followed by Marvin Harrison Jr going to the Cardinals at #4.

After that, there might be a wait. Draft media, just as much as it overreacts to single games, also overrates quarterbacks. Nothing about J.J. McCarthy says ‘first round pick’. I still believe there are teams who might consider other QB’s in the first frame but it’s less likely to be Penix Jr and Bo Nix. I think they’ll both be day two picks.

There’s always a chance one team forces things but you shouldn’t adjust your evaluation based on that. People scoffed at the thought of Penix Jr in round three a few days ago but I’m telling you — there will be teams putting him in that range, even if he still goes in the top-50.

The Seahawks will have an opportunity to draft a quarterback. The key at #16 for them will be whether they like one enough to take one there, whether they trade down, wait until later (without a second round pick) or if they just ignore the position.

It’s a loaded early-round class for the offensive line. I have Tyler Guyton, Taliese Fuagu, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Amarius Mims and JC Latham all graded as first round tackles with Troy Fautanu a first round guard. It’s early but at least one of these players will be there at #16. A lot of people have Joe Alt in round one but I think he’s more of a round two tackle who goes in round one.

I have 12 more O-liners with second round grades. You can build a line for the future in this draft, without question. There could be great value too if Michigan’s Zinter falls due to his injury — he’s the best guard in the draft and could be a sure-fire long-term NFL starter who would’ve gone top-50 but now could last.

It’s less exciting on the D-line. Dallas Turner is overrated and, in my opinion, will not upgrade anything. Jared Verse has his admirers and has had some great games for FSU, plus some very quiet, uneventful games. Laiatu Latu is the best pure edge without necessarily having a ‘wow’ factor. Bralen Trice is a better pro-prospect than many of the nationals recognise (and can run a 4.2 short shuttle at his bigger size). Jer’Zhan Newton was an interior game-wrecker in college but measureables will be key for him. It’s hard to find impact interior rushers who translate their college production to the pro’s. There is depth at defensive tackle and some interesting options should last into rounds 3/4.

I still believe Spencer Rattler is criminally underrated and he faced the kind of pressure Penix Jr faced today on a weekly basis thanks to South Carolina’s appalling O-line. He showed he can handle it, he was creative, productive and excelled. He is the hidden diamond within the class, someone well worth drafting and giving a chance to. The Gamecocks’ offense carries some pro-concepts and he faced a pro-environment with all the pressure and hits. Rattler’s arm talent is excellent, he has completely developed into a player who can play within structure, he’s a big-play threat and he has matured greatly from the Oklahoma days.

If the Seahawks could find a way to come out of the draft with him plus Zak Zinter and a first round O-liner — that would be a very intriguing boost for the long-term success of the offense. They might be better off with a more experienced, proven O-line though — paired with a younger, faster defense.

Health permitting, linebacker Payton Wilson is also a player who would look great to add speed, intensity and playmaking quality at linebacker. There are loads of other players I could mention too. It’s an intriguing draft — and it’s why it’ll be a crying shame if they don’t re-sign Leonard Williams and end up having blown a valuable second round pick. Especially if they try and pull a stunt like trying to ‘run it back’ in 2024.

I decided to do a video on this rather than an article because frankly, one listen was enough and transcribing it might put me off the National Championship game later. Pete Carroll used his 710 Seattle Sports interview on Monday to tell everyone — among other things — that this team is closer to the Super Bowl than last year.

The truth is they’re not closer to the Super Bowl. They have the exact same record as a year ago. They were relying on the Packers to lose a game to get into the playoffs, just as they were last season. Statistically their run defense is worse than 2022, despite prioritising it for the last 12 months (Carroll offered the now all-too-common line that they ‘just need to fix it’, begging the follow up question of what difference will another 12 months make if they couldn’t get close to fixing the problem already?). They can’t run the ball properly and the roster is facing a reset of sorts given the financial situation that is now a pressing concern.

I was wrong about Carroll maybe acknowledging he was coming to a natural end. Clearly he is minded to carry on. Everything else about yesterday’s article still rings true — so check it out.

The whole interview felt like an attempt at self-preservation. There were no convincing answers, nothing of substance. There was a lot of positive spin, like a politician on the election trail. Everything was an attempt to portray the situation as more positive than it actually is. Some fans will buy it. Will Jody Allen? I’m not convinced Carroll believed half of what he was saying. It felt like he was merely trying to get through what could be a challenging next few days.

It was like listening to a dress rehearsal for his meeting with ownership. If this is his pitch to stay for next season, it was seriously unimpressive.

Anyway, check out the video…

The only thing that matters is whether you’re moving in the right direction. The Seahawks aren’t — and that’s why this week, a change of Head Coach is required.

In an alternative universe you could look at back-to-back 9-8 seasons, immediately after trading Russell Wilson, and suggest it’s not altogether surprising. If you were seeing encouraging performances, a blossoming team and a pathway to contention — you could easily make a case for continuing onwards.

This isn’t the case with the Seahawks.

What possible reasons are there to be optimistic after the 2023 season?

They spent all last off-season talking about fixing the run defense. It ended up being statistically worse this year and they don’t seem to have any idea how to fix it. It’s fundamental to your success, in the regular season and the post-season, to at least offer some resistance against the run. With the season on the line, the Seahawks gave up 570 rushing yards in their last three games. So much of Pete Carroll’s preferred identity is concentrated on running the ball well and defending the run. The Seahawks can’t do either well.

Tackling is abysmal and the defense is a shambles. This is despite investing so much money and picks in the unit. A quick recap — three second round picks on edge rushers, a huge free agent splurge on Dre’Mont Jones, bringing back Jarran Reed and Bobby Wagner, using a second round pick to rent Leonard Williams for 10 games, a first round pick on a linebacker, a top-five pick on a cornerback, huge contracts for two safeties and the Jamal Adams trade. To spend all this, aggressively, and produce a defense as bad as this is incredible. It’s been years since the Seahawks had a good defense and despite two resets, they’re still bad and are now facing a mini-reset, if not a third full reset of the unit.

Offensively they have an arsenal of tantalising weapons and a very capable veteran quarterback. Yet as a unit they’ve gone through stretches in games where the offense has just completely stalled. Look at the start of the second half today. The route concepts are maddening at times. They’ve no idea how to make the most of their use of two second round picks on two running backs (with Carroll bemoaning last week they aren’t physical tone-setters like Najee Harris and Derrick Henry). Unlike other teams, they don’t seem to know how to maximise their best weapons or feature tight ends in a modern passing attack.

The Seahawks were two horrible missed Matt Prater field goals away from going 1-5 in the NFC West. They are an absolute mile away from the San Francisco 49ers. Most teams are. Yet this was supposed to be the year where the gap at least closed, even a little. It almost feels further away than ever. And who’d bet against the Rams and Sean McVay continuing to dominate Carroll’s Seahawks, with the upstart team from Los Angeles turning what should’ve been a rebuilding season into a 10-7 playoff tilt with legitimate reasons for optimism in the post-season.

They were soft against Pittsburgh, at home, in a must-win game. They’ve been undisciplined in multiple games. They were battered by the good teams they faced and played-down to several weaker opponents. They continue to be pushed around in the trenches too often. When’s the last time you thought the Seahawks won a game because the coaches ‘out-coached’ the other sideline?

What can you cling to tonight? What gives you hope for next year?

At least 12 months ago it was the rise of Geno Smith, an unexpected playoff run, a really entertaining start to the season and a treasure trove of picks coming up courtesy of the Russell Wilson trade.

All of that energy has now gone. The team was unsatisfying to watch in 2023. They’ve done nothing to move things forward despite a 2023 draft class most people approved of while making key moves in free agency.

They not only don’t have a nice collection of picks this year, they’ve already given away their second rounder. Meanwhile according to Over the Cap, they’re $9.3m in debt for the 2024 season when it comes to effective cap space. They need to create money just to be able to spend anything this off-season.

They can’t just bring everyone back for more of the same.

They’ve gone 7-10, 9-8 and 9-8 in the last three seasons, with one playoff appearance. They’ve got one playoff win in seven years, against the Eagles and a 40-year-old backup quarterback. Their only other playoff wins since the 2014 Super Bowl are the Blair Walsh missed-kick game and a victory at home against the Lions.

Pete Carroll, in his seasons without Russell Wilson, has gone 33-36 (including playoffs).

This has just come to a natural end.

The Seahawks needs a complete fresh start. It’s time to celebrate Carroll’s time in Seattle, which has been glorious for many reasons that we don’t get to talk about enough because of the way it’s ending. A polite, mutual parting of ways allowing everyone to salute the man who made history in Seattle is only right and proper.

A new set of eyes is needed on the roster. A new voice, with new ideas is required to shift things into a different direction. That would give fans the hope that is currently lacking. Giving the new coach a chance, seeing what he can achieve — that’s all the Seahawks have to offer right now.

After 14 years it’s time for someone new to come in and have their chance to lead this franchise.

With Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reporting earlier today that Carroll’s contract only has one guaranteed year remaining, with an option for 2025, it changes the complexion of the situation completely. It’s far less costly to part with Carroll, if that is necessary.

It’s not just a financial thing though. If the team was close, you can well imagine Carroll coming back for another year to give it one last shot. He cannot possibly look at the way his team is performing and think one off-season will have the Seahawks in contention.

Big changes are required. They might need to cut several players and replace them on the cheap. They’re going to have to go through some form of transition because the cap situation dictates that. The likelihood is that won’t take one off-season.

Carroll staying just delays things. Presumably they’d be trying to band-aid roster gaps if he stays — or worse they’d make a load of aggressive moves and handcuff a new coach in 12 months if things don’t work out (and they rarely do when you chase glory when it’s not actually that close).

Right now, with the way things are trending, Carroll is more likely to do harm to his legacy by carrying on.

It’s the ideal time to bow-out. The task is too big for a coach facing a lame-duck season. A new head honcho is required to oversee the changes and shape things his way.

I think Carroll understands this. His body language felt quite telling during the Arizona game. He seemed quite relaxed at the start, more relaxed than he has been in recent weeks. He gave off a ‘I’m going to enjoy this’ vibe. At the end he almost seemed quite emotional. I appreciate I might be reading into it — but it is what I thought watching the broadcast.

I did wonder too, whether the Leonard Williams trade — given how aggressive it was — might’ve been one last big push for Carroll to get over the top. Seattle made that deal with the New York Giants when they were 5-2 and in first place. Even then, was this viewed as the last rodeo? Go all-in to get the job done, with light emerging in the NFC tunnel, in Pete’s final year? I can’t help but be drawn to that thought.

People have picked up on his comments after the game. He was asked if he expects to be back next season and he replied, “at this point I do.”

As soon as I read that quote, I thought of the language Carroll used right before the Russell Wilson trade. He was asked about the possibility of dealing Wilson and said they had “no intention” of parting with him. Shortly after, he was gone.

“At this point I do (expect to be back)” feels a lot like having “no intention” of a Wilson trade. You’re hedging your bets while not giving the media any fuel to burn. I guess we’ll see if that comparison is accurate in the coming days.

The fact Carroll is out of contract after the 2024 season also means it makes no sense to just change both coordinators. Why would you do that if there’s a strong chance the Head Coach is leaving in a year? Carroll has appointed two offensive coordinators and three defensive coordinators since their last deep playoff run. He’s had ample opportunity to get this right and if Clint Hurtt and/or Shane Waldron need replacing — that’s another reason why the man who appointed them needs to be questioned.

People have often wondered how Jody Allen would approach a situation like this. Many have suggested she’d be inactive. On the contrary, Allen (who is well supported by Bert Kolde) has been the opposite of inactive.

Allen gave the green light for the Wilson trade — a huge, franchise-changing move. As owner of the Portland Trailblazers, she also parted ways with long-time coach Terry Stotts in 2021 after the Blazers’ fourth first-round playoff exit in five years. He’d been with the team since 2012.

These are not the actions of someone sitting on their hands. Although Carroll’s standing in Seattle is significantly different to Stotts’ in Portland, the situations on the field and court are similar.

Based on the direction of the team, the performance on the field, the contract situation, the need for structural change to the roster and the need either this year or in the near future to draft a quarterback, now is the ideal time to make a change.

Personally I would like to see a coach come in who has shown he can lead a unit. I’m not particularly interested in a coordinator who plays second fiddle to an offensive/defensive leader at Head Coach. I want someone who has controlled one side of the ball and done an outstanding job.

Ben Johnson the Lions offensive coordinator has produced a top-five offense (per DVOA) without an elite quarterback. Detroit’s roster feels similar to Seattle’s. He has succeeded with Jared Goff and would take on a similar veteran starter in Geno Smith. In two seasons, Johnson has got excellent production out of a duel-threat at running back. He’s shown he can feature his best weapons in the passing game, including at tight end. Basically, he’s done a lot of things we want to see in Seattle.

He could come in and be tasked with emulating his success in Detroit with the Seahawks’ offensive talent. Pair him with an experienced defensive coordinator and that feels like a good way to begin a new era. The Lions have just enjoyed a 12-5 season and there’s no reason why the Seahawks can’t have similar success, albeit in a tougher division than the NFC North.

If the Seahawks want a defensive-minded Head Coach, then go and get Mike McDonald in Baltimore. He inherited the 28th best defense per DVOA, improved their ranking to #8 last season and they are #1 this year. He’s achieved all of this despite not having a Nick Bosa, Myles Garrett, Micah Parsons or Aaron Donald-level pass rusher. McDonald has elevated the performance of players like Jadeveon Clowney, turned Justin Madubuike into a star, got every drop out of his secondary talent and they play tough, physical and fast.

If Seattle believes improving their own porous, shambolic defense is the key going forward — McDonald has shown he can do that in Baltimore without relying on elite blue-chip talent. Furthermore, he coached a defense that recently beat San Francisco in their own stadium. He made life very difficult for Kyle Shanahan. Imagine that.

They are the two candidates I’m mostly focused on. You can also make a case for Bob Slowik the Texans offensive coordinator. He’s done an excellent job with C.J. Stroud, which could be helpful if you intend to draft a quarterback early. He’s also enticing given he comes from the same Washington staff that once had Shanahan, McVay and Matt LaFleur working together.

If Carroll does depart, though, I fully expect Dan Quinn to get the job.

I have mixed views on this. Firstly, I do think it’s a benefit having been a Head Coach before. You know what to expect and can learn from past mistakes. I think he’ll do a good job putting a staff together. Al Harris is a dude and it’d be good to see him join Quinn as defensive coordinator. I think it’ll be a huge attraction for offensive coordinators to come and work with Quinn, because they’ll get to own the offense and inherit a talented bunch of weapons.

On the other hand, I’m hesitant to appoint someone who could be viewed as a ‘continuity candidate’. The Seahawks feel like they need a complete fresh start, with someone willing to make tough decisions. It can’t just be Carroll without Carroll. Quinn has also benefited greatly in Dallas due to the presence of Parsons, a generational defensive talent. He also benefitted from the LOB before taking the Falcons job — and the performance of his defense’s in Atlanta without star talent left a lot to be desired. They were average at best.

It’s felt on the cards, though, ever since Quinn returned to the league and rebuilt his image, that a return to Seattle would happen one day. I remember watching the quarterback pro-days a year ago, seeing Carroll and Quinn together all the time. They’re clearly close. The Seahawks have had contingency plans in place for a while, as Rapoport and Pelissero reported. Ed Werner, who is connected in Dallas, was touting it on Sunday. The only stumbling block could be Jerry Jones’ desire to retain Quinn, which could even mean at the expense of Mike McCarthy — according to an article from Adam Schefter on Saturday.

Even though I expect Quinn to replace Carroll if he leaves, I hope the Seahawks will hold a series of legit interviews and will allow themselves to be swayed.

Timing isn’t a big issue and nothing has to happen immediately. You can’t interview coaches in the playoffs until after the divisional round, per new rules for this year. If the Seahawks wanted to speak to Johnson, McDonald, Slowik or Quinn — they’d have to wait two weeks. That’s ample time to hold meetings without any rush and they can talk through what happens next for the franchise.

I hope in the coming days I’m writing an article reflecting on all that was good about the Carroll era. What a ride it was during the LOB days. Never to be matched. Nothing lasts forever though and the Seahawks are not going to win a Super Bowl next year with Carroll before his contract ends.

They need to put themselves on a longer-term plan, instigate changes to the roster and improve performance to try and position themselves for a serious run in the future.

It’s time. If this was the final game, I’m not going to spend any time worrying about a drop from 14th overall to 16th overall in the draft. It was worth it to let a great coach end on a victorious note.

If you missed our post-game live stream, check it out here:

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

It all comes down to this.

As they did last season, the Seahawks started on a good clip at 6-3, only to falter badly down the stretch. They enter the last game of the season 8-8, needing to beat a banged-up division rival with nothing to play for but pride and needing help from a Green Bay division rival to get into the playoffs.

The symmetry would be more impressive if it were not so discouraging.

Standing before the Seahawks is a tremendous dichotomy.

On the one hand, the Cardinals will field an extremely depleted roster in this game. On offense, Wide Receiver Marquise Brown and Left Tackle D.J. Humphries have been shut down for the season. Tight End Zach Ertz was released weeks ago. That is about 2000 snaps of 2023 experience they will not have.

It’s the same on defense. Linebacker Kyzir White is on Injured Reserve, they cut Defensive Lineman Kevin Strong and Cornerback Marco Wilson and Nose Tackle Leki Fotu has just been activated on Injured Reserve and may or may not play. That is another 2000 snaps of experience there.

The punchline is, the Cardinals may field the weakest starting 22 in the NFL for this game. For all their faults, the talent advantage the Seahawks have should provide simple math that says they should win this game handily.

You add in the fact that the Seahawks in Pete Carroll’s tenure are 9-3-1 when playing in Arizona (including 8-1-1 since 2012) and you have a pretty compelling case to rely on them getting a win.

The only question should be if Chicago can defeat Green Bay.

However, on the other hand, several factors make this game tougher than it appears.

The Cardinals – despite their record and roster – have proven to be a tough out for several teams this year. Last week, they shocked the league with an impressive win against the slumping Eagles.

Their strength on offense this year – the running game, of which they stand as the #6 team in the NFL – matches up extremely favorably with the Seahawks’ defensive Achilles heel (#30 and sinking like a stone). Just like last week against Pittsburgh, this game threatens to be an extremely long and frustrating day if the defense cannot deliver on the promise Pete Carroll made this week.

The struggles of this team and the increasing frustration expressed by the coaching staff down the stretch have coalesced into a critical pivot point with this game.

In the last few seasons, we have heard many things from Pete Carroll and the Seahawks players regarding their difficulties. Things from ‘we have plenty of games left’ to ‘we just have to clean up a few things’ to ‘we knew what our opponents were throwing at us, we just did not execute like we know we can.’ These have been followed by appropriate but increasingly strained statements of positivity and belief.

Anything less than a dominating win over this Cardinals team will be an abject failure. A win that the Seahawks make harder than it should be proves nothing. It will be just another in a long line of overly heralded triumphs that quickly prove meaningless when they can neither sustain it nor compete with teams that are equally if not more talented.

No need to prevaricate. Let’s see how the Seahawks can finish off this season with a satisfying win.

Use the Offense to Control the Game

In Seattle, much of the attention this week has been focused on a very poor defensive showing against the Steelers — and rightfully so.

However, the gap in capability between the Seattle offense and the Arizona defense is so wide, the Seahawks simply must plan to score points and control the ball at a rate commensurate with that gap.

Simply put, Arizona might currently be the worst defense in the NFL. And that was before all that NFL-level experience was jettisoned or put on Injured Reserve.

They are the #31 scoring defense.

They are dead last in rushing defense. They are conceding 4.6 yards per carry, and nobody has given up rushing first downs than the Cardinals. In only three of their 16 games so far have they allowed less than 100 rushing yards. Those three totals? 91, 92 and 93 yards.

Ken Walker rushed for 105 yards in 26 carries Week Five against these Cardinals. Zach Charbonnet did not play in that game. Those numbers should be considered a start for this game.

They are in the middle of the pack on pass yards conceded but their pass rush is absolutely putrid. They rank in the bottom-five of the NFL in pressures, pressure percentage, quarterback hits and sacks.

In their last three games, the Cardinals have recorded only one sack and fourteen pressures.

How did they defeat the Eagles last week with such a poor defense? They ran the ball 40 times and choked the life out of the defense, winning the time of possession game by over 19 minutes. The Eagles only punted twice, and scored three touchdowns and a field goal on their other drives. An ‘average’ offensive day was not good enough, because the Cardinals did not allow them enough possessions.

On every single snap, the Seahawks will have at least one mismatch in the passing game, perhaps several. They need to plan and execute on offense in a way that finds and exploits these mismatches. Punting several times is not an option.

The Seahawk offense must turn the tables and do what the Cardinals did to the Eagles. That can be accomplished by making liberal use of the running game.

The other option is being consistently explosive in the passing game and putting pressure on the Cardinals to keep up.

The Seahawks are the NFL’s worst offense in Time of Possession. That is no doubt partially due to their poor run defense. But they badly need to swing the numbers in their favor in this game. Concentrating on the run game is an excellent way to do that.

Let’s not mince words. This is where the game is won or lost. Because a brilliant day stopping the run by the Seahawk defense would be a welcome sight, it will be a very tough task.

Keep the Cardinals Running Game Contained

The Arizona run game was brilliant last week against the Eagles. They ran for 221 yards and that only scratches the surface of how good they were.

They ran at will on Philly. Arizona recorded a whopping ten explosive runs in the game. The Eagles had three tackles for loss but they all were for only one yard each.

All told, they ended the day with 5.5 yards per rush and an incredible 32 first downs, an NFL season high except for one game (the Dallas Cowboys had 33 first downs Week 13 vs our own Seahawks).

Lead back James Conner had nearly as many yards before contact as after contact and broke 8 tackles.

Michael Carter provided a nice change of pace and broke Eli Ricks’ ankles on a run of 18 yards:

OH MY, Michael Carter 😳

📺: #AZvsPHI on FOX
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— NFL (@NFL) December 31, 2023

The Seahawks must not allow these running backs to have that kind of impact on this game.

Last week, Pete Carroll explained their poor defensive performance on wanting to limit the explosive pass plays by Mason Rudolph and the Steelers. A disastrous day of tackling in the running game was the result.

If they follow the same line of thinking, the Seahawks could likewise overcommit to stopping the run, having viewed the high level of success Arizona had against the Eagles the week prior. This could prove another critical error if they are not careful.

Tight End Trey McBride has had a great year, actually providing a similar amount of catches and yards as splashy Detroit rookie Sam LaPorta (although with far less touchdowns). He is a great mid-range weapon. They also still have Rondale Moore and Michael Wilson to take deeper shots with.

Kyler Murray had a good week throwing past the sticks last week, going 4-for-5.

Balance will be critical. Remember that ‘great run defense’ the Seahawks featured early in the season? It came at the expense of regularly being exploited in the passing game. They struggled to stop the passing attacks of teams like the Rams, Lions and Panthers, making the value of a good run defense far less in the overall scheme of things.

The Seahawks coaches have to trust that the message about run defense and tackling has gotten through — and not overcommit resources to stopping the run game but rather prepare for a full spread offensive attack from the Cardinals.

According to the NFL Network reporters Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero, Pete Carroll’s contract does not run until the end of the 2025 season as initially reported. There is an option for 2025 and the deal technically is only guaranteed to last until the end of next season.

Rapoport & Pelissero say the situation will be evaluated when the season ends:

The Seahawks always are evaluating and updating contingency plans in the event longtime coach Pete Carroll, now 72 years old, decides to walk away.

Seahawks chair Jody Allen usually meets with Carroll and general manager John Schneider in the days after the season concludes — which could be extended by a playoff run, with a win Sunday over the Cardinals plus a Packers loss to the Bears gets Seattle in — any decisions will wait until then.

It’s possible the NFL Network duo have included this to hedge their bets, given the renewed talk of Carroll possibly walking away a few weeks ago. Or, it could just be a growing feeling within the league that it could happen.

Either way, it’s interesting that it’s being brought up — with a clarification on Carroll’s contract — rather than just being assumed that the status quo will remain.

It might also be reassuring to some fans that the Seahawks are ‘always updating contingency plans’ if a change is to be made. They’ve given this some thought, that implies — and are prepared.

One thing to note is teams are not permitted to do interviews with coaches in the same way this year. Teams seeking to interview coaches currently employed by another club are now prohibited from conducting in-person interviews with those candidates until after the divisional round of the playoffs.

This buys every team a bit of time. If you can’t start interviewing candidates for two weeks after the regular season, you don’t have to rush decisions the day after your season ends. If Carroll walks and the Seahawks wanted to speak to — for example — Ben Johnson, Bob Slowik, Dan Quinn or Mike McDonald — they wouldn’t be able to until after the divisional round at the earliest.

So there’s plenty of time for talking this out if Seattle’s season ends tonight.