Month: December 2023 (Page 1 of 4)

There are a lot of concerning things about the current Seahawks.

You could start with the hopeless run defense. Despite being an off-season focal point, mentioned time and time again, it’s as bad this year as it’s ever been. 202 more yards conceded against the Steelers, when every man and his dog knew they’d try to run the ball to take the pressure off Mason Rudolph.

No resistance. No pushback. Just pure domination.

You could mention the tackling. Soft, inept, hopeless. The Steelers had 132 rushing yards after contact, their second-most in a game since ESPN began tracking the stat in 2009. It was embarrassing to watch on Sunday. Whenever the Seahawks play any opponent with even a modicum of toughness, they seem to roll over.

You could note that once again the Seahawks are left relying on other teams to make the playoffs. Last year it was the Lions upsetting Green Bay allowing them to sneak in. Now, they’re left hoping something similar happens with the Packers losing to the Bears and that they can win in Arizona. Is this what we constitute as success now? Possible back-door entries into the post-season, not winning the NFC West, having very little chance of making any noise in the playoffs? All while the 49ers and Rams consistently achieve more?

Is this the new standard in Seattle? It’s OK to be the second or third best team in the division year after year just as long you’re better than a bad Saints team and a Vikings side without its QB, in order to grab the seventh seed? Is this really enough for fans and media alike to stave off difficult conversations about the direction of the franchise?

You could mention the massive resource spend on the roster. The expertly executed Russell Wilson trade has allowed the Seahawks to revamp their team with a ton of fresh blood. They’ve then gone way beyond that — spending so much on contracts that they’re now projected to have -$9m in effective cap space next year. They’ve already used their second round pick in the highly aggressive Leonard Williams trade. They’re paying big salaries to experienced veterans. This is an expensive group and they’ve been lending from the 2024 credit card.

Despite all of this spending — picks and money — they’re getting the absolute bare minimum for their investment. An offense loaded with skill players only seems to play in fits and starts. The defense is just awful. They’re clinging onto a playoff possibility by their finger-tips. The Williams trade told everyone in the world that they thought they were contenders and were going for it. We should hold them to that standard now that the season is on the brink of ending in mediocrity.

Yep, you could mention any of these things and they’d all be legit points in an argument for change. Nothing is more concerning, though, than the words of Pete Carroll himself discussing the performance against the Steelers:

“(The) mindset needs to be different than it was”

There you go. In a must-win game with control of a playoff position at stake, the Seahawks ‘didn’t have the right mindset’.

They allowed an opponent, in a similar situation, to come in and bully you in your own stadium. The Seahawks, you can take from that comment, didn’t take this occasion seriously enough.

Pete Carroll has never been celebrated for his tactical brilliance. In fourteen seasons I can’t remember many times where, after a game, we basked in the glow of how he out-witted another coach.

What Carroll was able to deliver was the right competitive mentality. You never had to worry about that. He might’ve had some teams with glaring weaknesses over the years but there was never a passive attitude towards a big game.

If Carroll can no longer resonate with his players so that they can play with the necessary attitude and intensity in a vital game like this, it’s over.

Increasingly this team looks like one that gets by on talent alone. The Seahawks don’t have a roster full of blue-chippers but they have more than enough ‘good’ players to not be awful. That is why they are able to get to 8-8. Yet elevating beyond that — as the Ravens have done despite a similar lack of Niner-level blue-chippers — is going to require a whole lot of ‘the right mindset’ and/or some tactical brilliance.

The Seahawks clearly aren’t getting either. So what is the answer?

Change.

It is time for a complete breath of fresh air within the franchise. New voices, new ideas, new identity, new approach.

That to me would be an offensive identity. We all watch the games. Seattle’s best characteristic is the offensive weapons they have. Putting someone in charge who can maximise these weapons is critical. Then go for a complementary defense where you fix the tackling, shift resource from the back-end to the D-line and go from there.

If you have to have a defensive-minded Head Coach, let’s at least have one who has shown he can do more with less, not the reverse as we’re seeing in Seattle. Baltimore DC Mike McDonald doesn’t have a Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett pass-rusher to rely on. He’s rejuvenated Jadeveon Clowney on the cheap and made Justin Madubuike a force. He’s converting safeties to fill in at corner. He’s created the #2 ranked defense per DVOA and they were eighth last year. McDonald took over a unit that ranked 28th in 2021. Look at that rapid and dramatic change. That’s what Seattle needs now — not more of the same as we saw against Pittsburgh. Not more massive investment, being aggressive, only for the same disappointing results.

It’s time for Jody Allen and Bert Kolde to get their heads together and make the kind of decision that isn’t comfortable, isn’t desired but is absolutely necessary. They need a new direction for this franchise.

Or, the Head Coach needs to make the decision for them.

Carroll has had two resets to get this right. He’s appointed two different defensive and offensive coordinators too. He can’t turn this around. He can’t fix persistent problems or drive the Seahawks forward. He hasn’t been able to deliver a serious contender since the LOB collapsed years ago and the prime years of Russell Wilson’s career covered for a lot of issues after that.

The Seahawks are not close, not knocking on the door. They are a middling team, with players who are either delivering par performances or they’re under-performing.

People qualify it all by pointing out that the Seahawks are never hopeless, like it’s enough to merely exist in the NFL and avoid being a disaster. This is no position to take. As I keep saying, you either need to be a contender or be able to have faith that you’re on the road to becoming one. Who can watch that on Sunday and think the Seahawks are on the right track? Who could possibly think that a Championship run is forthcoming within the next two years?

The franchise doesn’t exist for Carroll to coach for as long as he wishes. They exist to compete for Championships. Carroll will not get this team back to the Super Bowl before his contract ends after 2025. Therefore, there’s no reason to wait. Appoint someone instead who can start to create that vision now, rather than just playing for time because it’s what Carroll wants and it’s the easy way out.

Any serious Seahawks fan doesn’t enjoy writing or reading those words. We should all embrace and cherish a great era of Seahawks football under Carroll. Nothing lasts forever though. Better to bow out now — still a few years later than he should’ve done — and retain the status of legend, rather than cling on to the bitter end and have an increasing number of people calling for you to go.

The Seahawks are flat as a franchise. It was chastening hearing how noisy the Steelers fans were in Lumen Field on the broadcast. Bullied in your own home by a tougher team with their fans taking over the stadium. I’m told it was a similar story for the Eagles game. I was at the 49ers game and couldn’t believe how many red jerseys there were.

The mystique and the magic has gone. So has the intensity, the toughness, the message being sent by the coach. These players as a collective group aren’t delivering for Carroll. Not on that evidence. Not with him questioning whether they had the right mindset. Not like the Steelers were playing for Tomlin, anyway, who got that performance with his QB3 under center.

You can look at Pittsburgh and wonder, what if they actually acquire a top QB? They could be a really good side. There’s at least that hope. With the Seahawks, it goes way beyond replacing Geno Smith.

It appears to me the message has gone stale, or a large number of players are not being receptive to the coach to the level required. Carroll shouldn’t be afforded two new coordinators and another reset of the roster. The fact after the game he was even talking about ‘getting Jamal Adams back next year’ says it all.

It’s time. It’s just time. Thanks for the memories, Pete — but we can’t watch the same baffling brand of football next year, with the same issues, with the same soundbites and the same end result.

14 years has been a great run. Now we need to see someone else get their shot to lead this Seahawks team in a fresh direction, regardless of what happens next week and whether they become a lousy seventh seed qualifier in the playoffs or not.

If you missed our post-game live stream, check it out here:

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This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks have been playing in playoff-caliber games since Week Eleven. In that stretch they’ve gone 2-4, with two close losses and two not-close losses.

However, the wins have obviously come in the last two games and the team is building momentum to finish out another season, hopefully on a strong note.

Coming to town are the Pittsburgh Steelers, who have also sandwiched some wins around some very frustrating losses and are fighting for their playoff lives as a result.

The Steelers present a challenge not unlike last week’s opponent, the Tennessee Titans. They are physical, well-coached and they run the ball liberally. A win for Seattle will not come easily. However, Pete Carroll has talked through a very tough stretch of games the last few weeks, insisting the Seahawks are ‘battle-tested’ for this.

What will make that assertion a correct one?

Stop the Run and Make the Steeler Offense One-Dimensional

Listen, if I were writing a Steelers Watch Points post, point #1 would be to attack the Seahawks in the running game. Pittsburgh still has an unsure situation at quarterback and the Seahawks are vulnerable there. How vulnerable?

It is downright ugly. In the last five games, the Seahawks have given up an average of 164 yards on the ground, a robust 5.14 yards per rush, nine rushing touchdowns and a whopping 50 first downs. What’s more, the defense has not once stripped the ball on a running play in that stretch.

The Steelers are a league-average team on the ground, in terms of yards per attempt and yards gained per game. However, there is one stat that they are highly proficient in, one that spells trouble for the Seahawks: Broken Tackles.

Najee Harris (24 Broken Tackles) and Jaylen Warren (20) are two of the league’s best in the running game, ranking #2 and #4 in the NFL. They also have another 12 Broken Tackles between them in the passing game.

This is a particular vulnerability for the Seahawks, as they are once again one of the NFL’s worst tackling teams, with 107 missed tackles through 15 games. The trend is not being corrected – in that same recent five-game stretch they have actually gotten worse, with 42 missed tackles.

Typically, Harris is called in more for runs than Warren is but they both are comfortable attacking the interior of the defense and focusing on the outside edges as well. The defense will need a disciplined, coordinated effort to contain the run. Devin Bush will see plenty of snaps with Jordyn Brooks ruled out for the game. A big game against his old mates would be just what the doctor ordered.

The Steelers running backs bring toughness on every play. The Seahawks defense will need to match it in order to control this one.

Mason Rudolph had a great game last week but there are reasonable questions being asked of whether he can replicate that performance in back-to-back weeks. The most sensible game plan would be to lean heavily on the run game, build in some safe throws and occasionally take a shot to George Pickens or Diontae Johnson.

The Seahawks need to disrupt that plan and put the Steelers into tough situations on third down, where they are very poor this year, standing at #25 in the NFL. As a team, their quarterbacks have a 53.9% completion rate on third downs. If they have longer third downs where they cannot just dump the ball off to Warren or Harris to gain the three yards they need, the Seahawks will have a better chance for success.

A good day defending the run would be a huge breath of fresh air for this team. If they want to make any noise in the playoffs, they must be better. It starts with this game.

Avoid Mistakes

Last week the Steelers had an impressive win over the Bengals to sweep their season series. Mason Rudolph had a blast throwing to George Pickins and T.J. Watt was causing trouble. They deserved the win.

That said, Jake Browning’s three interceptions helped them along greatly. They scored 17 points – making each interception pay dividends – and one of the Steeler interceptions was in their own end zone, so they likely took at least three points off the Bengals’ board with the turnover.

In a game they won by 23 points, that was the main difference.

What manner of interceptions were they? Browning made some terrible decisions, with throws that demonstrated why he has been a backup for so long.

Geno Smith had a good game last week against Tennessee, with no real poor throws or other big mistakes. He will need to keep that going in order to win this game.

The Steelers are one of the league’s best in Turnover Differential, at +10. The Seahawks are in the middle of the pack at +3, a stark difference.

Also, penalties could well determine the outcome of the game. Once again, the Seahawks are one of the league’s worst, ranking tied for #30 with 107 flags so far this year. The Steelers? Tied for #8 with only 79. The Seahawks have seemed to struggled to adjust to the officiating updates the NFL made this year. They need to have as clean a game as possible in order to not sidetrack their efforts.

Turnovers and penalties. The Steelers are good, the Seahawks are not. Flipping that – or even just holding them to a draw – in those two categories may mean a playoff berth for the Seahawks.

Attack the Middle of the Field in the Passing Game

The Steelers come into Seattle in an absolutely dreadful position with their safeties.

Minkah Fitzpatrick and Trenton Thompson have been ruled out with injuries for the third week in a row. Keanu Neal is on IR. Damontae Kazee was suspended for the rest of the season two weeks ago.

The opposition has noticed. Even though Jake Browning threw three interceptions last week, he still ended the game with 335 yards passing, including this beauty:

HIGGINS HOUSE CALL. 80 YARDS ‼️

📺: #CINvsPIT on NBC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/yewPow3ekF pic.twitter.com/53m3qO5NaK

— NFL (@NFL) December 23, 2023

On that play, Linebacker Mykal Walker is playing the wrong coverage and realizes it too late. Eric Rowe cannot find the proper angle to match Higgins’ speed and the play is basically over 70 yards away from the end zone.

Do the Seahawks have that club in their bag? They do:

DK METCALF 73 YARDS ‼️#SEAvsDAL on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/YcXzMZb8jY pic.twitter.com/kE4zLLDz5M

— NFL (@NFL) December 1, 2023

Shane Waldron and Geno Smith need to regularly and mercilessly attack this zone of the field when they want to pass the ball. It is too juicy a target and the Seahawks have a multiplicity of great options to employ, from the three great wide receivers to tall targets in seam routes like Colby Parkinson and Jake Bobo (remember him?).

Jake Browning’s three interceptions did not come from smart, athletic plays by the defenders. They were poor.

In contrast, one of Geno Smith’s best weapons is his downfield accuracy. If they can regularly attack this area with quick slants that keep the pass rush at bay and gain chunks of yards – all the while putting pressure on the Steelers offense to keep up – it could make the day a very profitable one for the team.

They will still need to devote a hearty portion of the offensive plan to the run game (more on that below) but when they do want to pass between the numbers, in both the short and deep passing game, is precisely where they need to attack.

Do Not Let T.J. Watt Flip the Field

Watt is one of the few defenders that can regularly change the game in a hurry.

He has played the Seahawks twice in his career. In those two games, he has produced three passes defensed, three sacks, 13 tackles with four for a loss, three quarterback hits and two forced fumbles — including this one to win the game in Overtime in 2021:

TJ WATT FORCES THE FUMBLE. #HereWeGo

📺: #SEAvsPIT on NBC
📱: NFL app pic.twitter.com/SbUBpLy0qI

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2021

Some of Browning’s poor throws last week were under duress from Watt (and Alex Highsmith).

So, on the protection side, the Seahawks will need Abe Lucas to do all he can to keep Watt under control in this game. A quiet game for Watt would go a very long way to making this offense work.

However, Geno Smith will also have to do his part by reading the pressure, checking to the correct plays, and either delivering the ball quickly to his receivers or using his feet to create time for them to uncover.

Interestingly, stats do not necessarily always make the game. Against the Colts two weeks ago, Watt recorded two sacks, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits in a beastly effort on the stat sheet. Yet the Colts won the game by 17 points. How? Three turnovers by Mitch Trubisky and the Steelers offense surely helped. But a big part of the story is the Colts took Watt out of the game. All of his stats were collected in the first quarter and early in the second and he was quiet for the rest of the day.

How did they do it? They must have had a beast at Right Tackle tangling with Watt all day long, right?

No. They lined up fourth-round rookie Blake Freeland over Watt at Right Tackle, he of the 45.2 PFF grade this season.

So that’s not it. What wizardry did Shane Steichen imagine up to handle Watt? The Colts’ website tells us:

“The offensive line did a heck of a job protecting for him. He got the ball out of his hands quick,” head coach Shane Steichen said. “Just clean, precise decision making, knowing where to go with the football and then making the plays that he did. That big third down to (Michael) Pittman Jr. getting out of the pocket, that was a heck of an individual effort by him making that play – kind of directing Pitt to go deep there to hit that chunk play. Managing the game, the operation, obviously taking care of the football was huge going into that game. We didn’t want T.J. Watt obviously to wreck that game.”

Over the Colts’ final seven possessions, Watt was credited with no sacks, no quarterback hits and a single quarterback pressure; his lone tackle in 16 run defense snaps came in the first quarter.

On a quarter of those run plays, Freeland didn’t engage as a run blocker and simply routed Watt upfield – giving the rookie a breather but also taking Watt completely out of a play. When the Colts did block Watt on run plays, they got creative: Left guard Quenton Nelson pulled and stonewalled him; tight end Kylen Granson sprinted across the formation for a cut block; perhaps most impressively, tight end Drew Ogletree locked up Watt one-on-one to help spring Tyler Goodson’s 31-yard rush in the third quarter.

And then Steichen calling 13 consecutive run plays in the second half sapped the energy out of not only Watt but the Steelers’ defense.

“Certainly that progression in the game, running it over and over and over, wears them down,” center Ryan Kelly said. “They don’t want to keep getting up off the ground and do the same thing over again knowing it’s going to happen. It’s a real special feeling.”

Tight end Mo Alie-Cox said the Colts emphasized wearing Watt down and making things as difficult as possible on the three-time first-team AP All-Pro. On passing plays, Watt was frequently chipped by a tight end – like when Ogletree chipped him on Alie Cox’s third quarter touchdown, with Minshew releasing his throw before Freeland could even get his hands on Watt.

So even while Watt got on the board with those two early sacks, the Colts made sure he didn’t wreck the game in bigger situations as the evening progressed.

“He had a sack early,” Alie-Cox said, “but over the course of the game we did a good job taking him out of it.”

There you have it. Brilliant coaching with a plan to focus on the opposition’s best player and take him out of the game.

To summarize:

1. Geno Smith will need to get the ball out quickly and create with his feet

2. The Seahawks will need to rely on the run game to wear him down and take him out of Pass Rush Mode

3. Using Tight Ends to chip and players like Zach Charbonnet to double-team on passing downs will be critical

I wanted to take some time before the weekend just offer some draft thoughts and status check a few things. So here we go…

— I’ve taken a few names off my horizontal board who opted not to declare for the draft and return to college. This includes linebackers Smael Mondon and Barrett Carter at Georgia and Clemson respectively, receivers Julian Fleming and Josh Kelly (both heading for the portal) and cornerback Trikwese Bridges (also in the portal). There are still a number of players yet to make their intentions clear for the draft.

— I didn’t include Carson Beck on my initial board and the Georgia QB has now confirmed he isn’t turning pro. Tyler Van Dyke is going to Wisconsin, Will Rogers to Washington, Riley Leonard to Notre Dame, Will Howard to USC and Grayson McCall to NC State. Some of these are yet to be officially confirmed, though, so things can change. Cam Ward, KJ Jefferson and DJ Uiagalelei are yet to indicate where they are heading in the portal, with Ward said to be commanding a lot of interest.

— The buzz around Jayden Daniels is incredible and increasingly it seems like he might be the second quarterback drafted in 2024. His case will be aided if Lamar Jackson wins the MVP and/or Baltimore wins the Super Bowl. Teams will recognise the similarities between the two players. I still think it’s a lock that Caleb Williams will be taken by the Bears with the top pick but Daniels as QB2 and Drake Maye as QB3 feels extremely plausible.

— There are so many teams chasing quarterbacks and supply isn’t going to match demand. The key name I’m going to continue to keep an eye on is Quinn Ewers. The latest talk is he’s 80% committed to returning to Texas. However, if he wins the National Championship and plays well in the process there’s little reason to return. His decision will likely hinge on the outcome of the playoffs.

— On the Seahawks, it’s increasingly hard to imagine Geno Smith isn’t on the roster next year. They aren’t picking high enough to guarantee anything in terms of the draft. The veteran alternatives are not attractive and players like Kirk Cousins will cost a fortune (I suspect he’ll eventually be extended by Minnesota, keeping him off the market). The question really is how much can they shave off Smith’s cap hit? They can’t go into next year with Smith on three times what he’s on now. He’s still a bridge and their cap situation is bad enough that they need to find considerable savings. Jamal Adams will be gone, that’ll create some relief. They’ll need a lot more than the $16.5m that will provide (plus other inevitable cuts such as the $5m they’ll get for parting with Bryan Mone). They absolutely should still plan to draft a quarterback as a potential heir apparent. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading up, especially for someone like Daniels — exactly the kind of QB who causes San Francisco problems. Having a big-time playmaker at QB is one way to combat playing a team who simply has far more blue-chip players than you do.

— I’m delighted that the media, at least, continues to sleep on Spencer Rattler. I keep reading so much nonsense about him from people who clearly haven’t fully studied his tape since leaving Oklahoma. For me he remains an excellent option for the Seahawks if they can’t trade up for a QB. Rattler’s a talent I’d be prepared to consider in round one — so if he’s destined to go later than that, fantastic. We see quarterbacks last longer than they should all the time. I mentioned a few days ago — you’ve got to look for special qualities and take shots to find ‘the guy’. I think Rattler’s as talented as any quarterback eligible for 2024, with arm talent to die for. He’s shown maturation at South Carolina, he’s proven he can play within structure. There’s so much to like and without a top-five pick this year, you have to look at other options if trading up isn’t a solution.

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Perceptions change quickly after a couple of wins and we’re seeing that with the Seahawks. In the last 48 hours I’ve seen more than one person suggesting it’s plausible for the Seahawks to go on a run in the post-season. Meaning, they achieve more than just making up the numbers in the playoffs.

I view this two ways. Firstly, sure. It’s possible. The NFC isn’t very good. The 49ers are still the class of the conference even if they took a shot to the jaw yesterday against the Ravens. San Francisco’s roster is well beyond anyone else’s in the NFC, they are well coached and regardless of the Baltimore game, it’s hard to imagine anyone in the NFC preventing them from facing the Ravens again in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles are massively flawed and don’t look very good at all. They appear quite similar to the Seahawks during their recent four-game losing streak. They have offensive power but the defense stinks, especially in the secondary. They’ve lost their way and their coordinators appear overmatched.

The Lions are very beatable and the Seahawks seem to have their number. Dallas have all the characteristics of a paper tiger and they’re exactly the kind of opponent a proper team loves to meet in a NFC Championship or divisional round game. You can get after them, rough them up and they rely on a handful of very good players to win.

The NFC South poses no serious threat to anyone. Then there’s the Rams — perhaps the one team capable of upsetting the 49ers. Even then, McVay’s record against Shanahan isn’t great (even if they won the most important matchup between the teams two seasons ago to reach the Super Bowl).

You can run through every possible playoff contest with the exception of the 49ers and make a case for the Seahawks winning a one-off game against anyone. Thus, a ‘run’ isn’t preposterous.

The context here, though, is twofold.

Firstly, none of these teams are going to be particularly concerned about playing the Seahawks either. It’s still more likely than not the Seahawks, either as the #6 or #7 seed, lose their first game against the Eagles, Lions or Cowboys and it’s season over.

After all, here are the three scores the Seahawks ‘managed’ against the Ravens and 49ers this season: 37-3, 31-13 and 28-16. That’s indicative of how far off they are from the league’s best. All three of those scorelines could’ve been worse, too.

Secondly, and most importantly, the fact that the NFC is extremely poor and littered with flawed teams shouldn’t validate or excuse the issues we’ve been discussing. Neither should it prevent us from having serious conversations about the future.

I’m going to keep making this point. You are either on the right path to contention or you’re not. I don’t look at this Seahawks team and feel like the 2023 season, led by Pete Carroll and these coordinators, is the latest step of a journey to Super Bowl contention. I think they are what their record this season and last shows. They are a 9-8, 8-9, 10-7, 7-10 type team. Each year they’ll have an opportunity to be in that bracket. They’ll be in the playoff discussion, mostly because of the ridiculous introduction of a seventh seed. Yet this is often a deceptive and frustrating place to exist. You’re never good enough to feel truly energised or hopeful but not bad enough to consider serious change. Often anyone brave enough to bring this up is accused of being ‘spoilt’ because, well, the Panthers are really bad or something.

A possible playoff run is more to do with a weak NFC than any strength of the Seahawks. I’m concerned that this is going to be a convenient distraction, forcing some pressing issues off the agenda.

Case in point — you can tolerate being flawed when the issues are of a certain nature. If Seattle’s main problem was an over-reliance on youth with accompanying growing pains, that’d be palatable. If your quarterback is a bit hit-and-miss when we can all see he is a bridge and not a long term solution, that’s easy to stomach provided they address the position in the near future.

There are issues in Seattle though that are far more unacceptable than this and they need to be discussed.

For example, the Seahawks spent the entire off-season discussing how unacceptable their run defense was last year. It was a major point of focus. Yet in the last five outings, they’ve given up at least 135 rushing yards per game. They’re ranked 27th in the NFL for rushing yards-per-game (129.6) and 27th for total yards (1944).

This isn’t the first time this staff led by this coach have been upfront about an issue that needs to be fixed and yet they’ve failed to do anything about it. It feels like the run from 2019-2021 where the pass rush was eternally talked about, never sufficiently addressed and it cost the team opportunities to be a serious threat.

Then there’s the overall defensive performance. The Seahawks are now ranked 24th per DVOA. They’ve regressed from 20th (2021), to 22nd (2022) to 24th in a three-year run. That’s despite the massive investment they’ve made in the unit, with top-five picks, free agent splurges, obscene contract extensions and expensive rental trades. They’ve pushed all their chips into the middle of the table for the defense and they’re getting worse.

Identity. Initially it was a staple of what enabled Carroll’s Seahawks to succeed. Now they say they want to be a running team but can’t run the ball. Combine that with the badly performing defense and the ‘complete circle’ Carroll has often cited as his main aim is more like three separate straight lines, all pointing in different directions.

They have the 29th most rushing yards this season and the 29th most rushing attempts, despite spending two second round picks on running backs. How has this happened? It is malpractice, frankly, to invest that much in the running back position and then run the ball the fourth fewest times among all teams.

This would all be tolerable if it was in order to promote a consistent, dynamic passing attack where D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are routinely fed the ball, exposing weekly matchup weaknesses in opponents. Alas, no. Lockett is 25th and Metcalf 27th for targets this season. Against the Eagles it took them until the final drive to realise Metcalf versus the struggling, ageing James Bradberry was a potential advantage. Until that final drive, Metcalf had one catch for eight yards. This isn’t how you use a receiver earning $24m a year.

It’s not unfair to suggest they’ve lost all sense of what they want to be on offense and/or don’t know how to make the most of their most dynamic (and expensive) weapons. Heck, Carroll even admitted on the radio a few weeks ago they were struggling to work out the best way to max-out certain players on offense because they had so many options. Meanwhile, the defense just isn’t very good despite unrivalled investment.

Do we forget all this now because the Seahawks managed to pull a couple of last-gasp wins out of the bag? Will further wins against two other average/bad teams further shift the narrative away from relevant concerns and onto a ‘run it back’ campaign?

There’s one other thing I want to mention. Watching the Ravens beat the 49ers yesterday, I was struck by how Baltimore asked questions defensively of San Francisco.

Admittedly they have a good defense. This isn’t Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis though. In fact I think they have a similar overall talent level to Seattle in terms of personnel. They’re just utilised better. They get every sinew out of someone like Jadeveon Clowney. They’ve turned Justin Madubuike into a force. Their big trade — a second rounder for Roquan Smith — looks like great value (and isn’t just a rental or a major overpay in terms of compensation). They’re built sensibly, they have a plan and they play fast and physical.

They’re a million miles away from the Seahawks and yet, I’d put that down to the way they are structured. It isn’t because they lucked out in the draft with Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett. It feels like a well-crafted, schemed and motivated group.

When they came up against Kyle Shanahan’s powerhouse offense — they had answers. They challenged the Niners.

When the Seahawks play the 49ers, they trot out the same old stuff, get beat in the same old way and then come back for more in the rematch. All five of San Francisco’s wins against Seattle in the last two seasons have felt the same, just with varying degrees of ‘suck’.

It’s no different against McVay. Over and over again, the Rams exploit the same weaknesses in the defense. Whether it’s familiarity, an inability to adapt or a combination of both — Shanahan and McVay have Carroll’s number. The results prove that. After 14 years, why is anything going to change in 2024 or 2025? It didn’t change this year.

I appreciate the Ravens aren’t a common opponent for San Francisco and thus, it might’ve been easier to plan some surprises. Yet it was fascinating to see Mike McDonald challenge the Niners. Throw a few punches. Force turnovers. Make life uncomfortable. Make the 49ers, it has to be said, want to go home and open presents from Santa Clause instead of continuing the Santa Clara beatdown on Christmas day.

If we’re going to have a defensive-minded Head Coach and snub the modern trend of offensive playcallers cooking up creative ways to feature star playmakers and score points, I want a defensive-focussed team that will do what Baltimore did yesterday. Their defensive DVOA ranking is #2. Seattle’s is #24. There’s the stark difference — and Seattle’s defense cost so much more.

If you’re going to lean defensively — tap into the Ravens mentality. The Ravens way, if you will. They’re doing what you’ve always wanted to do in a way you can only dream of currently. The Seahawks might want to be like this but they’re nowhere near — as their own beating in Baltimore showed.

Offensive coach, defensive coach. Just give me something different. Have a side of the ball you can hang your hat on. Be really good at something. Go into those Rams and Niners games next year with an air of intrigue and mystery, rather than resignation that the same old zones will be beaten by the same old plays, with the same old players producing the same old results.

If you’re going to go 1-3 or 0-4 against the two other good teams in your division, short of one of the teams suffering catastrophic injuries (as the Rams did last year) — forget about ever being taken seriously as a contender.

All of these things remain really important to highlight and discuss. They can’t be pushed to one side because the Seahawks ‘just’ beat a Tennessee team missing a bunch of starters with nothing to play for. The end result might’ve been OK in the end but that Titans game summed everything up. It took far too long for the offense to click against a depleted opponent missing its entire secondary and their best defensive lineman. Defensively, they were bullied in the running game despite that likely being the whole focus during the week (it wasn’t going to be Ryan Tannehill’s deep-ball, was it?).

A win against a collapsing Eagles and potential further wins against a Steelers team that is woeful offensively (although admittedly excellent on defense) and the 3-12 Cardinals shouldn’t mean all of these important issues are forgotten.

It might be inconvenient for some to discuss these things and I’m sure I’ll face the usual accusations of being spoilt, negative, suffering mental health issues or hating the Seahawks (pick your preferred insult). Yet at the moment, any talk of a ‘playoff run’ can only be placed alongside a serious conversation about the matters raised above. We can’t avoid this.

There are five other quick things I want to raise today…

— John Harbaugh was a special teams coach back in the day. It means during his long tenure as Ravens Head Coach, he has entrusted and empowered his offensive and defensive coordinators. That was talked about again yesterday during and after the 49ers demolition. I think Carroll can still succeed in Seattle but only if he was prepared to follow this path. ‘Carroll ball’ couldn’t be further from what we’re seeing at the moment. Why not just embrace a different way of doing things if he intends to carry on coaching in 2024? Go and get the best two coordinators money can buy and let them run the show tactically. Be the overseer. Appointing ‘his guys’ to execute ‘his vision’ hasn’t worked for years.

— I think the world of Carroll, as I’m sure the vast majority of Seahawks fans do. I don’t take any pleasure in discussing his future or hoping for change. I just think coaches generally have a shelf-life and Carroll has reached his in Seattle. Fourteen years is a very long time. I’ve had two kids in that period. I think the same about Bill Belichick in New England and Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. I actually think it’d be great for everyone to know this playoff chase was to be a ‘last dance’ of sorts for Carroll, bringing everyone together to see the legendary coach off into the sunset, like the ending of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Instead I fear he’s already gone on too long and will continue to go on, making more fans long for change and tarnishing the great memories he deserves to be remembered for. Those of us in England know what that’s like, having seen it happen to Arsene Wenger at Arsenal. It’d be crushing to see Carroll become an increasingly divisive topic in the future, simply because he continued until the bitter end. Why not go out with all the good will on offer and allow the franchise to begin a necessary new era, rather than working to a strict 2025 timeline when Carroll’s career presumably will come to an end?

— I’m fascinated by the fallout of the Chiefs loss to the Raiders because talk of accountability has been discussed. Patrick Mahomes mentioned recently he felt like they lost some of that when Eric Bieniemy, known as a bit of a headbanger, departed for Washington. Hearing the Chiefs talk so openly about this was a real ‘head in the hands’ moment when I remembered that Carroll, when asked who holds him accountable two years ago, answered ‘Nate Carroll (his son) and Tater (Carl Smith, long-time Carroll assistant)’. That answer, now more than ever, symbolises part of the problem. If Mahomes and the Chiefs think they need someone on the staff who’s prepared to ruffle a few feathers, I’ll take that as gospel for most teams. At the very least, Carroll needs someone on his staff who is going to deliver accountability. I’m afraid his son and a pal with a potato-based nickname simply aren’t cutting it.

— I think there’s something in the whole ’49ers struggle against mobile quarterbacks’ narrative. Russell Wilson always did well against the Shanahan Niners. Lamar Jackson looked very good yesterday, even if there wasn’t that much scrambling. I just wonder, with a player like Jayden Daniels in the draft in 2024, whether the Seahawks need to give a lot of thought to finding a way to acquire him. It wouldn’t just be because he can move around. Daniels is also a very good deep-ball passer and I’ve seen enough evidence on tape of progression work to feel like it can become a staple of his next-level game. Having a quarterback who can move around and keep a defense in contain is a big plus anyway — I would like them to explore this possibility more, particularly with Daniels’ availability in the next draft.

— I was a big fan of Lamar Jackson at Louisville, as regulars will know. He had special qualities. He only lasted until the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft because of a catastrophic pre-draft process which included refusing to do much at the combine and being a pain in the arse to contact for meetings/workouts because he insisted on his mother being his agent (a problem that extended into contract talks with the Ravens, too). I think it’s a reminder that when discussing drafting a QB, you’ve got to look for those special qualities and not focus too much on negatives. Lamar had unreal ability as a runner to go with a tremendous arm and skill as a passer. He had first class traits. These are the players you take a chance on. It’s why I liked C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson so much this year. They had traits you can work with to enhance. Special qualities. They might not work out — but those types of players give you the best opportunity to find a difference maker at a vital position. It’s also why I continue to believe Spencer Rattler is someone to keep in our minds. If Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye are going to be long gone by the time Seattle picks, Rattler won’t be. His arm talent is special. There’s a reason why he drew comparisons to Mahomes when he was being touted as a potential #1 pick three years ago. He’s a changed man at South Carolina — he plays within structure, he’s matured greatly and he retains all of that special arm talent. If he lasts, as previous very talented players have done (Lamar, Russell Wilson) — just keep his name in mind. I’m glad nobody talks about him but there’s a reason why he turned pro when the rest of college football’s big name quarterbacks bolted for a big pay-day in the portal. I think Rattler’s getting much more positive NFL feedback than people realise.

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This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

Every game this season has told us something about the Seahawks. What will today’s game against the Titans tell us?

Several things, actually.

Coming off an emotional, last-minute, perhaps season-saving win against the Eagles Monday, we will see if the Seahawks can buckle down and refocus on their next opponent – something that has been very challenging for them this year.

In a big-picture sort of way though, a game like this could tell us all we need to know about where the Seahawks are going.

Consider what happened to them last year.

The Seahawks started out 6-3, in a good spot at the midway point of the season. Then came losses against teams they should have beaten and losses to superior teams that they struggled to keep up with sandwiched around a win that was much harder than it should have been. In a spot where they are playing for their playoff lives, they face a battered team decimated by injuries that they should easily handle.

After a promising start, they stumbled with losses to inferior teams (Las Vegas, Tampa, Carolina), beat a team with a battered roster by a hair (LA Rams) and were handled by superior teams (Kansas City and San Francisco). At 7-8 theyhosted the New York Jets, a tough team but at that time a shell of themselves, needing a win to keep their heads above water.

Ring any bells? Yes, it’s Groundhog Day in Seattle. Again.

A lukewarm 23-6 win against the Jets gave them no momentum. They barely beat the Rams in overtime and then were ushered out of the playoffs when San Francisco stepped on the gas in the second half of their game.

This year’s version of the Jets are the Tennessee Titans. At 5-9 they are out of the playoffs, having waived a white flag of surrender a few weeks into the season. They announced this week that a good chunk of their defensive starters – including monster defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons – are out for the season. They will be running out defensive backs nobody should be afraid to target. Will Levis will likely yield to Ryan Tannehill and their offensive line is no longer the powerhouse it once was.

A team with the Seahawks’ level of talent should have this game in hand by halftime if they truly want to consider themselves a playoff contender.

What makes this such a good tune-up? Several reasons:

— The Titans are tough at home. Their poor record stems from going 1-6 on the road. They are 4-3 at home. Two of those losses were in overtime and the third was to Baltimore — but only by 8 points. Despite their roster being a rotating cast, they have always performed far better at home than on the road.

— They still have talent akin to many playoff teams – a nice running back duo and a top wide receiver on offense plus two good pass rushers in Denico Autry and Harold Landry.

— Mike Vrabel is still a very effective coach. He has proven able to motivate his team and put a good game plan together. Just two weeks ago, they went into Miami and shocked the Dolphins. Two seasons ago, he brought his team into Seattle and turned a 24-9 halftime deficit into a 33-30 win. After that game, Pete Carroll and the players made several remarks that said without explicitly stating it that they were out-coached.

Going into Tennessee and delivering a solidly played, well-schemed, convincing win would do more for the franchise than the last-minute drive to win the game against Philadelphia.

What factors do they have to consider in order to do that?

When the Titans Have the Ball

The Titans defense is so hammered by injuries, this is likely where the game will be won or lost. If the Titans can control the game and keep the Seahawk offense off the field as much as possible, they may have a shot to keep the game close.

The Seahawks have come crashing back down to earth in run defense after a decent start to the season. They currently rank #27 in the NFL in yards conceded per attempt and are #30 in the NFL in rushing touchdowns conceded.

That is a problem. The Titans are running out a great duo of Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears. Both of them could be a real problem for this defense.

Henry, we know all too well. He ran for 182 yards and three touchdowns in their last meeting, exposing the Seahawks run defense as not up to the task. While he is not the same player he was that year as he approaches 30 in a couple of weeks, he still can be effective — particularly when not asked to carry the whole offense on his back.

He broke the 100-yard barrier on only 21 carries three weeks ago and has six rushing touchdowns in the last four games. There should be no taking him lightly.

Henry is now nicely complemented by rookie Tyjae Spears, who has lately been receiving an increased role in the offense. What does he bring to the table? Rob profiled him before the draft.

I had Tyjae Spears graded in round two in my latest horizontal board. He is so electric and despite being lighter than ideal (205lbs) he has such a proportionate frame with a thick, explosive lower body. He had a big run during team drills…he took advantage to explode through the whole and then make the safety Chris Smith of Georgia miss at the second level. He’s a dynamite player and someone who could be a nice complement to Ken Walker.

That scouting has proven correct. Have a look at what he offers.

These two backs are primed to exploit the Seahawks’ defensive weakness of taking bad angles and poor tackling.

Spears in particular will present a problem in the passing game. He currently is providing the Titans with 8.4 yards after the catch per reception and has several explosive plays. The Seahawks have had real problems defending running backs in the passing game again this season. Spears will be a particular challenge — one that perhaps they are ready for, having made some changes in their defensive backfield.

Ryan Tannehill will likely start at quarterback. Connecting with DeAndre Hopkins could present some real challenges for this defense at times. But the chances of that are not great. Why?

Tannehill has been dreadful this year throwing past the sticks. It likely was the reason that he got benched for Will Levis.

When you cannot make any passes deeper than 10 yards, the defense has very little to fear and can be aggressive.

Tannehill this year is 24 of 57 when targeting receivers further up field than 10 yards. That is a 42% completion rate. He has one touchdown against six interceptions. Further, he had been sacked 19 times in six games.

That is great for most defenses. But in Seattle, it could be trouble if the Offensive Coordinator has been watching Seahawks game tape. The Seahawks are still weak in coverage in the short middle zone of the field.

Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is following up on a very solid rookie season. He has a fantastic explosive ability for a player of his size, testing with a 1.59 10-yard split and a 4.52 40-yard dash. He could be a matchup nightmare for the defense.

The Seahawks will need to be very clever with their personnel. On the one hand, linebackers like Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner could be assets against the run game. On the other, they are liability in pass protection and last week were ineffective when blitzing (four blitzes and zero pressures or sacks between them).

Last week, the entire defense could only manage three pressures on Jalen Hurts and did not sack him. He had an 8% pressure rate, a quarterback’s dream.

If the Seahawks do not find ways to put pressure on Ryan Tannehill, a game that should be an easy win can turn into something uglier real fast.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

Before all of their injuries, the Titans were very middling on defense, ranking between #17-20 in rush defense, pass defense and points per game.

A good chunk of that is because the offense has not performed up to their usual standards. When they cannot consistently run the ball and then take shots in the passing game off play action, the defense will be on the field too much. The more chances you give opposing offenses, the better the odds that sooner or later they will break through.

Their best feature is they are tied for #8 in the NFL for sacks with 41. Landry, Denico, Simmons and Arden Key have been a potent combination. Even though Simmons will not play, the Seahawks will need Abe Lucas and Charles Cross to have a very solid game in pass protection in order to avoid the offense being consistently disrupted.

If they can manage it, there should be nothing standing in the Seahawks’ way other than themselves.

In Safety Amani Hooker, Corner Sean Murphy-Bunting and Safety K’Von Wallace, they represent over 1800 defensive snaps that will not be playing. Kristian Fulton (PFF 48.4), Elijah Molden (49.8) and Terrell Edmunds (59.6) will be in their place.

We are all aware that the talent level between starters and backups can be pretty slim and that a terrific coordinator can make up for a lack of talent with a brilliant game plan.

Still, if the Seahawks cannot find ways to dominate this backfield with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and three very capable tight ends, the chances of it being because the Titans defense is playing well are very, very slim.

In the early part of the game, they need to establish the run, get the tight ends involved and get the wide receivers running some quick passing routes to keep the pass rush off balance. Once they have built up a lead, they can start a mix of pounding the Titans in the running game to kill the clock and calling increasingly aggressive plays that do not fear the pass rush.

This game will likely be the last real chance this season to unleash this offense with all of its weapons. If they can put together a game plan that gets them ahead early, they can control the entire game and come home with a comfortable win.

It’s funny how a narrative changes in a flash.

We’ve gone from John Middlekauff and Colin Cowherd calling Geno Smith mediocre three weeks ago and saying he needed to be replaced in the off-season, to Middlekauff now saying this week that Smith ‘shouldn’t be replaced in the 2024 draft’ (although there’s more nuance than the video title suggests).

Smith hasn’t even played in the last two games. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, maybe? He only watched Drew Lock lead the 92-yard drive to beat the Eagles on Monday night, he didn’t execute that drive himself.

Lock’s overall performance, it has to be said, was unspectacular. None of this article is a review of the starting competition between the two players. Smith, for me at least, has shown to be superior. There’s a reason why he initially won and retained the job. The Philadelphia victory was a nice story and Lock won a lot of admirers, rightfully so, for the emotional reaction he had to the final drive.

However, it wasn’t a surprise that Pete Carroll immediately announced Smith would start against the Titans on Christmas Eve if healthy. It’s not even a question in Carroll’s mind, clearly. Some will disagree but I’m with Carroll on this one. In his shoes, I would pick Smith to start the final three regular season games. He gives the Seahawks the best chance to win each game. I don’t think we need to ‘see’ what Lock can do — because neither player feels like the future.

And really that’s the point. I was surprised to see Middlekauff, an excellent pundit, just rowing back expectations slightly about the future at quarterback. It makes me wonder if Smith’s future will become a hot topic again.

There are lots of what I’d call ‘extreme’ opinions on Smith online. There are people who just think he’s useless and that is wrong. Equally, there are people who go overboard in their praise. The truth is somewhere in the middle. He’s a perfectly adequate quarterback to get you through a period where the franchise has no long-term option. He’s also the kind of quarterback you spend every year debating how to replace with a younger, better alternative.

He’s a bridge.

As with all bridge quarterbacks, there comes a natural point where they outstay their welcome as a starter. Not upgrading caps your ceiling at a certain level as a potential contender. We’ve seen plenty of teams stuck in football purgatory.

Although people make arguments about Seattle’s O-line, Smith has not played well for stretches this season. He has more weapons than most to enable him to succeed. He has been the trigger-man when the offense has gone whole halves without appearing remotely competent. True enough, he has also been the quarterback during periods of excellent production.

The Dallas game recently is being used as an example of Smith at his best. I think you can also make a case that it’s Smith and Seattle’s offense at its best and worst. For three quarters they were going toe-to-toe with the Cowboys. In the final quarter, with the game on the line, they didn’t score a point. They failed on three fourth-down conversions. For Dallas, Dak Prescott made the plays that mattered. He was clutch. He won the game and Smith and the Seahawks couldn’t. As we’ve seen in other games this season, the good play vanished into thin air.

This streaky nature has dogged the Seahawks. It’s not all Smith and I’d never try to argue that. The play-calling in particular this year has been maddening, with basic-route concepts and very little imagination to give the QB an easy-out under pressure.

Further to this, the Seahawks never look like a team that puts together a game-plan to feature its best (and most expensive) weapons against an opponent’s weakness. On Monday night, Seattle’s final drive saw every throw targeting the struggling cornerback James Bradberry. Why did it take until the final drive to do that? Why was D.K. Metcalf — a thorn in Philly’s side in the previous two games between the teams — stuck on one-catch for eight yards before that 92-yard feast? There was a matchup here just begging to be exploited.

Compare that to the way Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay attack Seattle’s weak areas from the get-go.

So yeah, it’s not all Smith. But there are issues. He was second in the NFL for turnover-worthy plays in 2022. This year, he was trending towards a similar ranking before his injury. He had five in the San Francisco and Dallas games alone. He has 19 for the season. His touchdown/interception ratio of 15/9 is thoroughly mediocre. He’s PFF’s 16th ranked QB. Now he’s starting to miss games through injury. Recently, K.J. Wright (almost certainly connected to the locker room) offered a telling and dramatic eye-roll when asked if Smith was a leader on the team.

None of this is conducive with a sudden about-turn on his suitability to be anything other than a temporary option.

Smith is due a cap-hit of $31.2m in 2024, a tripling of his $10.1m salary this year. You can’t argue that his performance this season warrants a x3 pay increase. Especially when, according to Over The Cap, the Seahawks are now projected to start the next league year $9.1m in the red (effective cap space).

The contract was always set up to be flexible and there’s no way Smith will be on the books for $31.2m (potentially rising to $33.2m if he hits the one remaining escalator available to him — percentage of snaps + playoff qualifications/wins). That will be resolved quite quickly at the end of the season to save money.

Back to what Middlekauff was saying in his video. He makes an argument which isn’t completely invalid regarding Chris Ballard and the Colts. Basically, the Colts shockingly lost Andrew Luck to retirement right before the 2019 season. Indianapolis then spent the next few years scrambling around to find stop-gap options at quarterback. Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan. None worked out, to the point Ballard came under pressure. Only losing sufficiently to put themselves in position to select Anthony Richardson with the #4 pick solved the problem and bought Ballard some breathing space.

Middlekauff makes the case for Ballard’s approach:

“If we’re not drafting high, I’ve got to really like a guy at pick #22 to just pull the trigger. You want me to just draft Kenny Pickett or Mac Jones? If I had to bet now, Seattle’s going to go 9-8, probably get in the playoffs. That means you’re drafting at pick #21, #22. What if there’s not a good quarterback? I’m not opposed to trading up and getting a guy that you really like but I don’t think it’s crazy. They’ve won 16 games with Geno (in the last two seasons — although they haven’t, he didn’t play against the Eagles, so it’s 15). If their defense was just a little bit better, if they add another pass rusher, their team’s got a lot of talent. Now the quarterback situation is obviously not ideal but just because you trade up and get Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels, it doesn’t mean those guys are going to be any good.”

I don’t disagree with a lot of this. It’s not a good idea to trade up, mortgaging your future, on a quarterback who isn’t worth it. That’s stating the obvious.

I suppose my angle here, though, is do we know nobody in this draft is worthy, to bring this up as a relevant point in relation to what the Seahawks should do in 2024? I would argue that there potentially are players worth moving up for. Thus, I’m not sure this is something to be feared.

I’d go a stage further. I think there will be players worth considering without moving up. Take a shot. I’m a big Chris Ballard fan — I just think you do have to take more risks than just Jacob Eason in round four, as he did, while waiting for a Holy Grail that isn’t likely to slap you in the chops.

Ballard’s approach feels like a shrug of the shoulders in the direction of a problem. If the Seahawks resign themselves to needing to be blown away by a quarterback in order to ever draft one, are they really competing to get better at the position? If they were to use a pick on a player that in previous years ended up being, for example, L.J. Collier, Marquise Blair, Jordyn Brooks, Boye Mafe or Derrick Hall to roll the dice on a young quarterback, is that any more of a risk? Is it wrong? Are you any more likely to succeed or fail for taking the chance?

Should there be a level of certainty required at the most important position versus, say, a defensive lineman or safety? Or are the Seahawks now at a point where really, they should be taking shots to try and find the future — even if it means embracing the fact that you might not hit the bullseye with your first dart?

You could argue this is especially the case when a player such as Lamar Jackson lasts deep into the first round. That was an oversight from the league in 2018 clearly. You can’t afford to be the team stuck in mediocrity who makes such a mistake, as many teams did when Jackson was available, because he had a bit of an iffy pre-draft process or had a few question marks (that were off-set by brilliant physical talent).

Lest we forget that Daniel Jeremiah didn’t list Mahomes among his top-50 prospects in February ahead of the 2017 draft, or an updated version in April, weeks before he was taken 10th overall. Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions. In Jeremiah’s final April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one at #27 overall — a late first round projection.

If we were talking in December seven years ago, discussing drafting Mahomes in the first round, many would’ve scoffed. Nobody expected a team to trade into the top-10 for him. Now, it’s one of the most inspired moves in NFL history.

Hindsight is glorious, obviously, but it seems safe to say that elite players are not always obviously elite players — even at quarterback. Take some chances.

Don’t be too picky.

The occasional narrative of avoiding the position unless you see a sure-fire home-run player bothers me. I think we saw that last year with the way the top QB’s were nit-picked. C.J. Stroud was being touted for a slumping fall before the draft. How silly does that seem now? Will Levis dropped to the top of round two and that feels somewhat misguided, given a fairly promising start in a difficult situation with the Titans. Both were physically very talented.

Back to the Seahawks, we’ve gone from a fairly common debate in recent weeks about the need to find a long-term answer at quarterback — something Middlekauff and Cowherd actively discussed — to now one half of the same duo saying, ‘if only the Seahawks spend another high pick on the defense’.

How much more investment is required on defense before it’s in a position to succeed or you try a different approach? I feel like we’ve been here, done that and bought an over-priced T-shirt. Running it back with Geno Smith, spending a top-25 pick on another edge rusher to replace Darrell Taylor and coming back again next year feels like a great way to waste 12 months. Rinse and repeat.

So while I appreciate it might not be possible for the Seahawks to put themselves in a position to draft a QB with their native pick, I still think any discussion about the future should include — at the forefront — a debate about drafting a quarterback early, potentially trading up, what the options actually are (I mean, why shouldn’t they move up for Jayden Daniels? Let’s have that conversation) and whether there are going to be any day-two alternatives (I believe there will be, despite the influx of QB’s entering the transfer portal).

Identify a player who ticks a lot of boxes who you believe can be developed into a starter and go get them. Be prepared, too, for that player not to succeed — and you needing to repeat the act in the near future.

This process (the search for an answer at QB) could/should be more extensive than simply waiting for ‘the one’. Otherwise you just embrace the purgatory situation we talked about. If you’re not prepared to take chances through fear of error, you’ll never move forward. In fairness, John Schneider — as conservative as he’s been in selecting QB’s in Seattle — comes from Green Bay where they were never afraid to collect quarterbacks. I hope this isn’t an ego thing at play — the man who hit a home-run with Russell Wilson, now not wanting to blot his copybook unless he’s convinced he’s found the next superstar.

This fear has grown for me the more I’ve studied Quinn Ewers at Texas and noted the growing chatter that he might not declare. Clearly if the Longhorns win the National Championship that could change and he might turn pro. It was long thought he was on a ‘three-years-and-done’ trajectory in college. If he doesn’t turn pro, though, I wonder if that might influence Schneider. Ewers — from a physical talent, technique and personality stand-point feels very much like the kind of player he would fall hard for. Would he wait for him?

There are going to be other quarterbacks in the 2024 draft with playmaking ability and physical talent, plus college success. The challenge is to harness everything and prepare them for the next level.

While Seattle’s roster isn’t close to San Francisco’s in talent, it does feel suitably padded due to two good drafts. They don’t have a ton of glaring needs. It’s the right moment to throw a young QB into the mix, whether that’s as a red-shirt player or immediate starting competition.

Re-working Smith’s contract feels inevitable, as does his return in 2024. The Seahawks should still plan to draft a quarterback.

I hope that we’re not witnessing the early days of a blossoming ‘run it back’ campaign — where a cosy end-of-season schedule gives everyone an opportunity to believe that another year of Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, with even more splurging on the defense, will lead to better results than the 16-16 record the pair have overseen in the last two seasons.

Just draft one more defender early? Just wait for the ideal QB to fall into your lap?

Not for me.

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I was invited onto the Redzone Rundown podcast this week to talk about everything Seahawks related. Have a listen…