Perceptions change quickly after a couple of wins and we’re seeing that with the Seahawks. In the last 48 hours I’ve seen more than one person suggesting it’s plausible for the Seahawks to go on a run in the post-season. Meaning, they achieve more than just making up the numbers in the playoffs.

I view this two ways. Firstly, sure. It’s possible. The NFC isn’t very good. The 49ers are still the class of the conference even if they took a shot to the jaw yesterday against the Ravens. San Francisco’s roster is well beyond anyone else’s in the NFC, they are well coached and regardless of the Baltimore game, it’s hard to imagine anyone in the NFC preventing them from facing the Ravens again in the Super Bowl.

The Eagles are massively flawed and don’t look very good at all. They appear quite similar to the Seahawks during their recent four-game losing streak. They have offensive power but the defense stinks, especially in the secondary. They’ve lost their way and their coordinators appear overmatched.

The Lions are very beatable and the Seahawks seem to have their number. Dallas have all the characteristics of a paper tiger and they’re exactly the kind of opponent a proper team loves to meet in a NFC Championship or divisional round game. You can get after them, rough them up and they rely on a handful of very good players to win.

The NFC South poses no serious threat to anyone. Then there’s the Rams — perhaps the one team capable of upsetting the 49ers. Even then, McVay’s record against Shanahan isn’t great (even if they won the most important matchup between the teams two seasons ago to reach the Super Bowl).

You can run through every possible playoff contest with the exception of the 49ers and make a case for the Seahawks winning a one-off game against anyone. Thus, a ‘run’ isn’t preposterous.

The context here, though, is twofold.

Firstly, none of these teams are going to be particularly concerned about playing the Seahawks either. It’s still more likely than not the Seahawks, either as the #6 or #7 seed, lose their first game against the Eagles, Lions or Cowboys and it’s season over.

After all, here are the three scores the Seahawks ‘managed’ against the Ravens and 49ers this season: 37-3, 31-13 and 28-16. That’s indicative of how far off they are from the league’s best. All three of those scorelines could’ve been worse, too.

Secondly, and most importantly, the fact that the NFC is extremely poor and littered with flawed teams shouldn’t validate or excuse the issues we’ve been discussing. Neither should it prevent us from having serious conversations about the future.

I’m going to keep making this point. You are either on the right path to contention or you’re not. I don’t look at this Seahawks team and feel like the 2023 season, led by Pete Carroll and these coordinators, is the latest step of a journey to Super Bowl contention. I think they are what their record this season and last shows. They are a 9-8, 8-9, 10-7, 7-10 type team. Each year they’ll have an opportunity to be in that bracket. They’ll be in the playoff discussion, mostly because of the ridiculous introduction of a seventh seed. Yet this is often a deceptive and frustrating place to exist. You’re never good enough to feel truly energised or hopeful but not bad enough to consider serious change. Often anyone brave enough to bring this up is accused of being ‘spoilt’ because, well, the Panthers are really bad or something.

A possible playoff run is more to do with a weak NFC than any strength of the Seahawks. I’m concerned that this is going to be a convenient distraction, forcing some pressing issues off the agenda.

Case in point — you can tolerate being flawed when the issues are of a certain nature. If Seattle’s main problem was an over-reliance on youth with accompanying growing pains, that’d be palatable. If your quarterback is a bit hit-and-miss when we can all see he is a bridge and not a long term solution, that’s easy to stomach provided they address the position in the near future.

There are issues in Seattle though that are far more unacceptable than this and they need to be discussed.

For example, the Seahawks spent the entire off-season discussing how unacceptable their run defense was last year. It was a major point of focus. Yet in the last five outings, they’ve given up at least 135 rushing yards per game. They’re ranked 27th in the NFL for rushing yards-per-game (129.6) and 27th for total yards (1944).

This isn’t the first time this staff led by this coach have been upfront about an issue that needs to be fixed and yet they’ve failed to do anything about it. It feels like the run from 2019-2021 where the pass rush was eternally talked about, never sufficiently addressed and it cost the team opportunities to be a serious threat.

Then there’s the overall defensive performance. The Seahawks are now ranked 24th per DVOA. They’ve regressed from 20th (2021), to 22nd (2022) to 24th in a three-year run. That’s despite the massive investment they’ve made in the unit, with top-five picks, free agent splurges, obscene contract extensions and expensive rental trades. They’ve pushed all their chips into the middle of the table for the defense and they’re getting worse.

Identity. Initially it was a staple of what enabled Carroll’s Seahawks to succeed. Now they say they want to be a running team but can’t run the ball. Combine that with the badly performing defense and the ‘complete circle’ Carroll has often cited as his main aim is more like three separate straight lines, all pointing in different directions.

They have the 29th most rushing yards this season and the 29th most rushing attempts, despite spending two second round picks on running backs. How has this happened? It is malpractice, frankly, to invest that much in the running back position and then run the ball the fourth fewest times among all teams.

This would all be tolerable if it was in order to promote a consistent, dynamic passing attack where D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are routinely fed the ball, exposing weekly matchup weaknesses in opponents. Alas, no. Lockett is 25th and Metcalf 27th for targets this season. Against the Eagles it took them until the final drive to realise Metcalf versus the struggling, ageing James Bradberry was a potential advantage. Until that final drive, Metcalf had one catch for eight yards. This isn’t how you use a receiver earning $24m a year.

It’s not unfair to suggest they’ve lost all sense of what they want to be on offense and/or don’t know how to make the most of their most dynamic (and expensive) weapons. Heck, Carroll even admitted on the radio a few weeks ago they were struggling to work out the best way to max-out certain players on offense because they had so many options. Meanwhile, the defense just isn’t very good despite unrivalled investment.

Do we forget all this now because the Seahawks managed to pull a couple of last-gasp wins out of the bag? Will further wins against two other average/bad teams further shift the narrative away from relevant concerns and onto a ‘run it back’ campaign?

There’s one other thing I want to mention. Watching the Ravens beat the 49ers yesterday, I was struck by how Baltimore asked questions defensively of San Francisco.

Admittedly they have a good defense. This isn’t Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis though. In fact I think they have a similar overall talent level to Seattle in terms of personnel. They’re just utilised better. They get every sinew out of someone like Jadeveon Clowney. They’ve turned Justin Madubuike into a force. Their big trade — a second rounder for Roquan Smith — looks like great value (and isn’t just a rental or a major overpay in terms of compensation). They’re built sensibly, they have a plan and they play fast and physical.

They’re a million miles away from the Seahawks and yet, I’d put that down to the way they are structured. It isn’t because they lucked out in the draft with Nick Bosa or Myles Garrett. It feels like a well-crafted, schemed and motivated group.

When they came up against Kyle Shanahan’s powerhouse offense — they had answers. They challenged the Niners.

When the Seahawks play the 49ers, they trot out the same old stuff, get beat in the same old way and then come back for more in the rematch. All five of San Francisco’s wins against Seattle in the last two seasons have felt the same, just with varying degrees of ‘suck’.

It’s no different against McVay. Over and over again, the Rams exploit the same weaknesses in the defense. Whether it’s familiarity, an inability to adapt or a combination of both — Shanahan and McVay have Carroll’s number. The results prove that. After 14 years, why is anything going to change in 2024 or 2025? It didn’t change this year.

I appreciate the Ravens aren’t a common opponent for San Francisco and thus, it might’ve been easier to plan some surprises. Yet it was fascinating to see Mike McDonald challenge the Niners. Throw a few punches. Force turnovers. Make life uncomfortable. Make the 49ers, it has to be said, want to go home and open presents from Santa Clause instead of continuing the Santa Clara beatdown on Christmas day.

If we’re going to have a defensive-minded Head Coach and snub the modern trend of offensive playcallers cooking up creative ways to feature star playmakers and score points, I want a defensive-focussed team that will do what Baltimore did yesterday. Their defensive DVOA ranking is #2. Seattle’s is #24. There’s the stark difference — and Seattle’s defense cost so much more.

If you’re going to lean defensively — tap into the Ravens mentality. The Ravens way, if you will. They’re doing what you’ve always wanted to do in a way you can only dream of currently. The Seahawks might want to be like this but they’re nowhere near — as their own beating in Baltimore showed.

Offensive coach, defensive coach. Just give me something different. Have a side of the ball you can hang your hat on. Be really good at something. Go into those Rams and Niners games next year with an air of intrigue and mystery, rather than resignation that the same old zones will be beaten by the same old plays, with the same old players producing the same old results.

If you’re going to go 1-3 or 0-4 against the two other good teams in your division, short of one of the teams suffering catastrophic injuries (as the Rams did last year) — forget about ever being taken seriously as a contender.

All of these things remain really important to highlight and discuss. They can’t be pushed to one side because the Seahawks ‘just’ beat a Tennessee team missing a bunch of starters with nothing to play for. The end result might’ve been OK in the end but that Titans game summed everything up. It took far too long for the offense to click against a depleted opponent missing its entire secondary and their best defensive lineman. Defensively, they were bullied in the running game despite that likely being the whole focus during the week (it wasn’t going to be Ryan Tannehill’s deep-ball, was it?).

A win against a collapsing Eagles and potential further wins against a Steelers team that is woeful offensively (although admittedly excellent on defense) and the 3-12 Cardinals shouldn’t mean all of these important issues are forgotten.

It might be inconvenient for some to discuss these things and I’m sure I’ll face the usual accusations of being spoilt, negative, suffering mental health issues or hating the Seahawks (pick your preferred insult). Yet at the moment, any talk of a ‘playoff run’ can only be placed alongside a serious conversation about the matters raised above. We can’t avoid this.

There are five other quick things I want to raise today…

— John Harbaugh was a special teams coach back in the day. It means during his long tenure as Ravens Head Coach, he has entrusted and empowered his offensive and defensive coordinators. That was talked about again yesterday during and after the 49ers demolition. I think Carroll can still succeed in Seattle but only if he was prepared to follow this path. ‘Carroll ball’ couldn’t be further from what we’re seeing at the moment. Why not just embrace a different way of doing things if he intends to carry on coaching in 2024? Go and get the best two coordinators money can buy and let them run the show tactically. Be the overseer. Appointing ‘his guys’ to execute ‘his vision’ hasn’t worked for years.

— I think the world of Carroll, as I’m sure the vast majority of Seahawks fans do. I don’t take any pleasure in discussing his future or hoping for change. I just think coaches generally have a shelf-life and Carroll has reached his in Seattle. Fourteen years is a very long time. I’ve had two kids in that period. I think the same about Bill Belichick in New England and Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh. I actually think it’d be great for everyone to know this playoff chase was to be a ‘last dance’ of sorts for Carroll, bringing everyone together to see the legendary coach off into the sunset, like the ending of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Instead I fear he’s already gone on too long and will continue to go on, making more fans long for change and tarnishing the great memories he deserves to be remembered for. Those of us in England know what that’s like, having seen it happen to Arsene Wenger at Arsenal. It’d be crushing to see Carroll become an increasingly divisive topic in the future, simply because he continued until the bitter end. Why not go out with all the good will on offer and allow the franchise to begin a necessary new era, rather than working to a strict 2025 timeline when Carroll’s career presumably will come to an end?

— I’m fascinated by the fallout of the Chiefs loss to the Raiders because talk of accountability has been discussed. Patrick Mahomes mentioned recently he felt like they lost some of that when Eric Bieniemy, known as a bit of a headbanger, departed for Washington. Hearing the Chiefs talk so openly about this was a real ‘head in the hands’ moment when I remembered that Carroll, when asked who holds him accountable two years ago, answered ‘Nate Carroll (his son) and Tater (Carl Smith, long-time Carroll assistant)’. That answer, now more than ever, symbolises part of the problem. If Mahomes and the Chiefs think they need someone on the staff who’s prepared to ruffle a few feathers, I’ll take that as gospel for most teams. At the very least, Carroll needs someone on his staff who is going to deliver accountability. I’m afraid his son and a pal with a potato-based nickname simply aren’t cutting it.

— I think there’s something in the whole ’49ers struggle against mobile quarterbacks’ narrative. Russell Wilson always did well against the Shanahan Niners. Lamar Jackson looked very good yesterday, even if there wasn’t that much scrambling. I just wonder, with a player like Jayden Daniels in the draft in 2024, whether the Seahawks need to give a lot of thought to finding a way to acquire him. It wouldn’t just be because he can move around. Daniels is also a very good deep-ball passer and I’ve seen enough evidence on tape of progression work to feel like it can become a staple of his next-level game. Having a quarterback who can move around and keep a defense in contain is a big plus anyway — I would like them to explore this possibility more, particularly with Daniels’ availability in the next draft.

— I was a big fan of Lamar Jackson at Louisville, as regulars will know. He had special qualities. He only lasted until the 32nd pick in the 2018 draft because of a catastrophic pre-draft process which included refusing to do much at the combine and being a pain in the arse to contact for meetings/workouts because he insisted on his mother being his agent (a problem that extended into contract talks with the Ravens, too). I think it’s a reminder that when discussing drafting a QB, you’ve got to look for those special qualities and not focus too much on negatives. Lamar had unreal ability as a runner to go with a tremendous arm and skill as a passer. He had first class traits. These are the players you take a chance on. It’s why I liked C.J. Stroud, Will Levis and Anthony Richardson so much this year. They had traits you can work with to enhance. Special qualities. They might not work out — but those types of players give you the best opportunity to find a difference maker at a vital position. It’s also why I continue to believe Spencer Rattler is someone to keep in our minds. If Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye are going to be long gone by the time Seattle picks, Rattler won’t be. His arm talent is special. There’s a reason why he drew comparisons to Mahomes when he was being touted as a potential #1 pick three years ago. He’s a changed man at South Carolina — he plays within structure, he’s matured greatly and he retains all of that special arm talent. If he lasts, as previous very talented players have done (Lamar, Russell Wilson) — just keep his name in mind. I’m glad nobody talks about him but there’s a reason why he turned pro when the rest of college football’s big name quarterbacks bolted for a big pay-day in the portal. I think Rattler’s getting much more positive NFL feedback than people realise.

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This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

Every game this season has told us something about the Seahawks. What will today’s game against the Titans tell us?

Several things, actually.

Coming off an emotional, last-minute, perhaps season-saving win against the Eagles Monday, we will see if the Seahawks can buckle down and refocus on their next opponent – something that has been very challenging for them this year.

In a big-picture sort of way though, a game like this could tell us all we need to know about where the Seahawks are going.

Consider what happened to them last year.

The Seahawks started out 6-3, in a good spot at the midway point of the season. Then came losses against teams they should have beaten and losses to superior teams that they struggled to keep up with sandwiched around a win that was much harder than it should have been. In a spot where they are playing for their playoff lives, they face a battered team decimated by injuries that they should easily handle.

After a promising start, they stumbled with losses to inferior teams (Las Vegas, Tampa, Carolina), beat a team with a battered roster by a hair (LA Rams) and were handled by superior teams (Kansas City and San Francisco). At 7-8 theyhosted the New York Jets, a tough team but at that time a shell of themselves, needing a win to keep their heads above water.

Ring any bells? Yes, it’s Groundhog Day in Seattle. Again.

A lukewarm 23-6 win against the Jets gave them no momentum. They barely beat the Rams in overtime and then were ushered out of the playoffs when San Francisco stepped on the gas in the second half of their game.

This year’s version of the Jets are the Tennessee Titans. At 5-9 they are out of the playoffs, having waived a white flag of surrender a few weeks into the season. They announced this week that a good chunk of their defensive starters – including monster defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons – are out for the season. They will be running out defensive backs nobody should be afraid to target. Will Levis will likely yield to Ryan Tannehill and their offensive line is no longer the powerhouse it once was.

A team with the Seahawks’ level of talent should have this game in hand by halftime if they truly want to consider themselves a playoff contender.

What makes this such a good tune-up? Several reasons:

— The Titans are tough at home. Their poor record stems from going 1-6 on the road. They are 4-3 at home. Two of those losses were in overtime and the third was to Baltimore — but only by 8 points. Despite their roster being a rotating cast, they have always performed far better at home than on the road.

— They still have talent akin to many playoff teams – a nice running back duo and a top wide receiver on offense plus two good pass rushers in Denico Autry and Harold Landry.

— Mike Vrabel is still a very effective coach. He has proven able to motivate his team and put a good game plan together. Just two weeks ago, they went into Miami and shocked the Dolphins. Two seasons ago, he brought his team into Seattle and turned a 24-9 halftime deficit into a 33-30 win. After that game, Pete Carroll and the players made several remarks that said without explicitly stating it that they were out-coached.

Going into Tennessee and delivering a solidly played, well-schemed, convincing win would do more for the franchise than the last-minute drive to win the game against Philadelphia.

What factors do they have to consider in order to do that?

When the Titans Have the Ball

The Titans defense is so hammered by injuries, this is likely where the game will be won or lost. If the Titans can control the game and keep the Seahawk offense off the field as much as possible, they may have a shot to keep the game close.

The Seahawks have come crashing back down to earth in run defense after a decent start to the season. They currently rank #27 in the NFL in yards conceded per attempt and are #30 in the NFL in rushing touchdowns conceded.

That is a problem. The Titans are running out a great duo of Derrick Henry and Tyjae Spears. Both of them could be a real problem for this defense.

Henry, we know all too well. He ran for 182 yards and three touchdowns in their last meeting, exposing the Seahawks run defense as not up to the task. While he is not the same player he was that year as he approaches 30 in a couple of weeks, he still can be effective — particularly when not asked to carry the whole offense on his back.

He broke the 100-yard barrier on only 21 carries three weeks ago and has six rushing touchdowns in the last four games. There should be no taking him lightly.

Henry is now nicely complemented by rookie Tyjae Spears, who has lately been receiving an increased role in the offense. What does he bring to the table? Rob profiled him before the draft.

I had Tyjae Spears graded in round two in my latest horizontal board. He is so electric and despite being lighter than ideal (205lbs) he has such a proportionate frame with a thick, explosive lower body. He had a big run during team drills…he took advantage to explode through the whole and then make the safety Chris Smith of Georgia miss at the second level. He’s a dynamite player and someone who could be a nice complement to Ken Walker.

That scouting has proven correct. Have a look at what he offers.

These two backs are primed to exploit the Seahawks’ defensive weakness of taking bad angles and poor tackling.

Spears in particular will present a problem in the passing game. He currently is providing the Titans with 8.4 yards after the catch per reception and has several explosive plays. The Seahawks have had real problems defending running backs in the passing game again this season. Spears will be a particular challenge — one that perhaps they are ready for, having made some changes in their defensive backfield.

Ryan Tannehill will likely start at quarterback. Connecting with DeAndre Hopkins could present some real challenges for this defense at times. But the chances of that are not great. Why?

Tannehill has been dreadful this year throwing past the sticks. It likely was the reason that he got benched for Will Levis.

When you cannot make any passes deeper than 10 yards, the defense has very little to fear and can be aggressive.

Tannehill this year is 24 of 57 when targeting receivers further up field than 10 yards. That is a 42% completion rate. He has one touchdown against six interceptions. Further, he had been sacked 19 times in six games.

That is great for most defenses. But in Seattle, it could be trouble if the Offensive Coordinator has been watching Seahawks game tape. The Seahawks are still weak in coverage in the short middle zone of the field.

Tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo is following up on a very solid rookie season. He has a fantastic explosive ability for a player of his size, testing with a 1.59 10-yard split and a 4.52 40-yard dash. He could be a matchup nightmare for the defense.

The Seahawks will need to be very clever with their personnel. On the one hand, linebackers like Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner could be assets against the run game. On the other, they are liability in pass protection and last week were ineffective when blitzing (four blitzes and zero pressures or sacks between them).

Last week, the entire defense could only manage three pressures on Jalen Hurts and did not sack him. He had an 8% pressure rate, a quarterback’s dream.

If the Seahawks do not find ways to put pressure on Ryan Tannehill, a game that should be an easy win can turn into something uglier real fast.

When the Seahawks Have the Ball

Before all of their injuries, the Titans were very middling on defense, ranking between #17-20 in rush defense, pass defense and points per game.

A good chunk of that is because the offense has not performed up to their usual standards. When they cannot consistently run the ball and then take shots in the passing game off play action, the defense will be on the field too much. The more chances you give opposing offenses, the better the odds that sooner or later they will break through.

Their best feature is they are tied for #8 in the NFL for sacks with 41. Landry, Denico, Simmons and Arden Key have been a potent combination. Even though Simmons will not play, the Seahawks will need Abe Lucas and Charles Cross to have a very solid game in pass protection in order to avoid the offense being consistently disrupted.

If they can manage it, there should be nothing standing in the Seahawks’ way other than themselves.

In Safety Amani Hooker, Corner Sean Murphy-Bunting and Safety K’Von Wallace, they represent over 1800 defensive snaps that will not be playing. Kristian Fulton (PFF 48.4), Elijah Molden (49.8) and Terrell Edmunds (59.6) will be in their place.

We are all aware that the talent level between starters and backups can be pretty slim and that a terrific coordinator can make up for a lack of talent with a brilliant game plan.

Still, if the Seahawks cannot find ways to dominate this backfield with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and three very capable tight ends, the chances of it being because the Titans defense is playing well are very, very slim.

In the early part of the game, they need to establish the run, get the tight ends involved and get the wide receivers running some quick passing routes to keep the pass rush off balance. Once they have built up a lead, they can start a mix of pounding the Titans in the running game to kill the clock and calling increasingly aggressive plays that do not fear the pass rush.

This game will likely be the last real chance this season to unleash this offense with all of its weapons. If they can put together a game plan that gets them ahead early, they can control the entire game and come home with a comfortable win.

It’s funny how a narrative changes in a flash.

We’ve gone from John Middlekauff and Colin Cowherd calling Geno Smith mediocre three weeks ago and saying he needed to be replaced in the off-season, to Middlekauff now saying this week that Smith ‘shouldn’t be replaced in the 2024 draft’ (although there’s more nuance than the video title suggests).

Smith hasn’t even played in the last two games. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, maybe? He only watched Drew Lock lead the 92-yard drive to beat the Eagles on Monday night, he didn’t execute that drive himself.

Lock’s overall performance, it has to be said, was unspectacular. None of this article is a review of the starting competition between the two players. Smith, for me at least, has shown to be superior. There’s a reason why he initially won and retained the job. The Philadelphia victory was a nice story and Lock won a lot of admirers, rightfully so, for the emotional reaction he had to the final drive.

However, it wasn’t a surprise that Pete Carroll immediately announced Smith would start against the Titans on Christmas Eve if healthy. It’s not even a question in Carroll’s mind, clearly. Some will disagree but I’m with Carroll on this one. In his shoes, I would pick Smith to start the final three regular season games. He gives the Seahawks the best chance to win each game. I don’t think we need to ‘see’ what Lock can do — because neither player feels like the future.

And really that’s the point. I was surprised to see Middlekauff, an excellent pundit, just rowing back expectations slightly about the future at quarterback. It makes me wonder if Smith’s future will become a hot topic again.

There are lots of what I’d call ‘extreme’ opinions on Smith online. There are people who just think he’s useless and that is wrong. Equally, there are people who go overboard in their praise. The truth is somewhere in the middle. He’s a perfectly adequate quarterback to get you through a period where the franchise has no long-term option. He’s also the kind of quarterback you spend every year debating how to replace with a younger, better alternative.

He’s a bridge.

As with all bridge quarterbacks, there comes a natural point where they outstay their welcome as a starter. Not upgrading caps your ceiling at a certain level as a potential contender. We’ve seen plenty of teams stuck in football purgatory.

Although people make arguments about Seattle’s O-line, Smith has not played well for stretches this season. He has more weapons than most to enable him to succeed. He has been the trigger-man when the offense has gone whole halves without appearing remotely competent. True enough, he has also been the quarterback during periods of excellent production.

The Dallas game recently is being used as an example of Smith at his best. I think you can also make a case that it’s Smith and Seattle’s offense at its best and worst. For three quarters they were going toe-to-toe with the Cowboys. In the final quarter, with the game on the line, they didn’t score a point. They failed on three fourth-down conversions. For Dallas, Dak Prescott made the plays that mattered. He was clutch. He won the game and Smith and the Seahawks couldn’t. As we’ve seen in other games this season, the good play vanished into thin air.

This streaky nature has dogged the Seahawks. It’s not all Smith and I’d never try to argue that. The play-calling in particular this year has been maddening, with basic-route concepts and very little imagination to give the QB an easy-out under pressure.

Further to this, the Seahawks never look like a team that puts together a game-plan to feature its best (and most expensive) weapons against an opponent’s weakness. On Monday night, Seattle’s final drive saw every throw targeting the struggling cornerback James Bradberry. Why did it take until the final drive to do that? Why was D.K. Metcalf — a thorn in Philly’s side in the previous two games between the teams — stuck on one-catch for eight yards before that 92-yard feast? There was a matchup here just begging to be exploited.

Compare that to the way Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay attack Seattle’s weak areas from the get-go.

So yeah, it’s not all Smith. But there are issues. He was second in the NFL for turnover-worthy plays in 2022. This year, he was trending towards a similar ranking before his injury. He had five in the San Francisco and Dallas games alone. He has 19 for the season. His touchdown/interception ratio of 15/9 is thoroughly mediocre. He’s PFF’s 16th ranked QB. Now he’s starting to miss games through injury. Recently, K.J. Wright (almost certainly connected to the locker room) offered a telling and dramatic eye-roll when asked if Smith was a leader on the team.

None of this is conducive with a sudden about-turn on his suitability to be anything other than a temporary option.

Smith is due a cap-hit of $31.2m in 2024, a tripling of his $10.1m salary this year. You can’t argue that his performance this season warrants a x3 pay increase. Especially when, according to Over The Cap, the Seahawks are now projected to start the next league year $9.1m in the red (effective cap space).

The contract was always set up to be flexible and there’s no way Smith will be on the books for $31.2m (potentially rising to $33.2m if he hits the one remaining escalator available to him — percentage of snaps + playoff qualifications/wins). That will be resolved quite quickly at the end of the season to save money.

Back to what Middlekauff was saying in his video. He makes an argument which isn’t completely invalid regarding Chris Ballard and the Colts. Basically, the Colts shockingly lost Andrew Luck to retirement right before the 2019 season. Indianapolis then spent the next few years scrambling around to find stop-gap options at quarterback. Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan. None worked out, to the point Ballard came under pressure. Only losing sufficiently to put themselves in position to select Anthony Richardson with the #4 pick solved the problem and bought Ballard some breathing space.

Middlekauff makes the case for Ballard’s approach:

“If we’re not drafting high, I’ve got to really like a guy at pick #22 to just pull the trigger. You want me to just draft Kenny Pickett or Mac Jones? If I had to bet now, Seattle’s going to go 9-8, probably get in the playoffs. That means you’re drafting at pick #21, #22. What if there’s not a good quarterback? I’m not opposed to trading up and getting a guy that you really like but I don’t think it’s crazy. They’ve won 16 games with Geno (in the last two seasons — although they haven’t, he didn’t play against the Eagles, so it’s 15). If their defense was just a little bit better, if they add another pass rusher, their team’s got a lot of talent. Now the quarterback situation is obviously not ideal but just because you trade up and get Bo Nix or Jayden Daniels, it doesn’t mean those guys are going to be any good.”

I don’t disagree with a lot of this. It’s not a good idea to trade up, mortgaging your future, on a quarterback who isn’t worth it. That’s stating the obvious.

I suppose my angle here, though, is do we know nobody in this draft is worthy, to bring this up as a relevant point in relation to what the Seahawks should do in 2024? I would argue that there potentially are players worth moving up for. Thus, I’m not sure this is something to be feared.

I’d go a stage further. I think there will be players worth considering without moving up. Take a shot. I’m a big Chris Ballard fan — I just think you do have to take more risks than just Jacob Eason in round four, as he did, while waiting for a Holy Grail that isn’t likely to slap you in the chops.

Ballard’s approach feels like a shrug of the shoulders in the direction of a problem. If the Seahawks resign themselves to needing to be blown away by a quarterback in order to ever draft one, are they really competing to get better at the position? If they were to use a pick on a player that in previous years ended up being, for example, L.J. Collier, Marquise Blair, Jordyn Brooks, Boye Mafe or Derrick Hall to roll the dice on a young quarterback, is that any more of a risk? Is it wrong? Are you any more likely to succeed or fail for taking the chance?

Should there be a level of certainty required at the most important position versus, say, a defensive lineman or safety? Or are the Seahawks now at a point where really, they should be taking shots to try and find the future — even if it means embracing the fact that you might not hit the bullseye with your first dart?

You could argue this is especially the case when a player such as Lamar Jackson lasts deep into the first round. That was an oversight from the league in 2018 clearly. You can’t afford to be the team stuck in mediocrity who makes such a mistake, as many teams did when Jackson was available, because he had a bit of an iffy pre-draft process or had a few question marks (that were off-set by brilliant physical talent).

Lest we forget that Daniel Jeremiah didn’t list Mahomes among his top-50 prospects in February ahead of the 2017 draft, or an updated version in April, weeks before he was taken 10th overall. Deshone Kizer, however, was ranked on both occasions. In Jeremiah’s final April 2017 mock draft, he eventually did include Mahomes in round one at #27 overall — a late first round projection.

If we were talking in December seven years ago, discussing drafting Mahomes in the first round, many would’ve scoffed. Nobody expected a team to trade into the top-10 for him. Now, it’s one of the most inspired moves in NFL history.

Hindsight is glorious, obviously, but it seems safe to say that elite players are not always obviously elite players — even at quarterback. Take some chances.

Don’t be too picky.

The occasional narrative of avoiding the position unless you see a sure-fire home-run player bothers me. I think we saw that last year with the way the top QB’s were nit-picked. C.J. Stroud was being touted for a slumping fall before the draft. How silly does that seem now? Will Levis dropped to the top of round two and that feels somewhat misguided, given a fairly promising start in a difficult situation with the Titans. Both were physically very talented.

Back to the Seahawks, we’ve gone from a fairly common debate in recent weeks about the need to find a long-term answer at quarterback — something Middlekauff and Cowherd actively discussed — to now one half of the same duo saying, ‘if only the Seahawks spend another high pick on the defense’.

How much more investment is required on defense before it’s in a position to succeed or you try a different approach? I feel like we’ve been here, done that and bought an over-priced T-shirt. Running it back with Geno Smith, spending a top-25 pick on another edge rusher to replace Darrell Taylor and coming back again next year feels like a great way to waste 12 months. Rinse and repeat.

So while I appreciate it might not be possible for the Seahawks to put themselves in a position to draft a QB with their native pick, I still think any discussion about the future should include — at the forefront — a debate about drafting a quarterback early, potentially trading up, what the options actually are (I mean, why shouldn’t they move up for Jayden Daniels? Let’s have that conversation) and whether there are going to be any day-two alternatives (I believe there will be, despite the influx of QB’s entering the transfer portal).

Identify a player who ticks a lot of boxes who you believe can be developed into a starter and go get them. Be prepared, too, for that player not to succeed — and you needing to repeat the act in the near future.

This process (the search for an answer at QB) could/should be more extensive than simply waiting for ‘the one’. Otherwise you just embrace the purgatory situation we talked about. If you’re not prepared to take chances through fear of error, you’ll never move forward. In fairness, John Schneider — as conservative as he’s been in selecting QB’s in Seattle — comes from Green Bay where they were never afraid to collect quarterbacks. I hope this isn’t an ego thing at play — the man who hit a home-run with Russell Wilson, now not wanting to blot his copybook unless he’s convinced he’s found the next superstar.

This fear has grown for me the more I’ve studied Quinn Ewers at Texas and noted the growing chatter that he might not declare. Clearly if the Longhorns win the National Championship that could change and he might turn pro. It was long thought he was on a ‘three-years-and-done’ trajectory in college. If he doesn’t turn pro, though, I wonder if that might influence Schneider. Ewers — from a physical talent, technique and personality stand-point feels very much like the kind of player he would fall hard for. Would he wait for him?

There are going to be other quarterbacks in the 2024 draft with playmaking ability and physical talent, plus college success. The challenge is to harness everything and prepare them for the next level.

While Seattle’s roster isn’t close to San Francisco’s in talent, it does feel suitably padded due to two good drafts. They don’t have a ton of glaring needs. It’s the right moment to throw a young QB into the mix, whether that’s as a red-shirt player or immediate starting competition.

Re-working Smith’s contract feels inevitable, as does his return in 2024. The Seahawks should still plan to draft a quarterback.

I hope that we’re not witnessing the early days of a blossoming ‘run it back’ campaign — where a cosy end-of-season schedule gives everyone an opportunity to believe that another year of Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, with even more splurging on the defense, will lead to better results than the 16-16 record the pair have overseen in the last two seasons.

Just draft one more defender early? Just wait for the ideal QB to fall into your lap?

Not for me.

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I was invited onto the Redzone Rundown podcast this week to talk about everything Seahawks related. Have a listen…

Earlier today I was invited onto KJR again to discuss the Seahawks with Puck & Jim.

Have a listen below…

Sorry this is later than usual but here are my thoughts following the Eagles win…

Sign Leonard Williams to an extension now

It might cost you a bit more to get it done but who cares? You made a very expensive trade to acquire Williams and the focus now has to be making sure his future is in Seattle. He has played very well despite the 2-5 record since his arrival. This team cannot afford to waste a second round pick on a rental. They need to get a deal done.

Cap space is extremely tight for 2024 (they’re currently projected to be $9.5m over the cap next year) but we know changes are coming. Jamal Adams’ days are surely numbered for a start. They will cut other players like Bryan Mone. I’d argue it’s highly unlikely they are going to triple Geno Smith’s salary, given he’s now missing games to go along with a year that wasn’t as good as last season.

You have to commit to Williams. You have to go to him and make him an offer he can’t refuse. Don’t allow him to reach free agency and potentially have his head turned. Let’s not forget, the Rams currently have about $30m to spend next year. They could try and lure him back to California to play with Aaron Donald. You can’t allow that to happen. You have to make sure this wasn’t a wasted second rounder.

His performance against the Eagles was so impactful — he was pretty much the only defensive lineman making a difference. The Seahawks have a responsibility to keep him. He has to be in Seattle next season.

I can’t think of a better Christmas gift this week than committing Williams to a new deal. He ticks every box — talented, impactful, character fit.

Don’t rely on being able to recruit him in free agency. Tie him down now and let’s put to bed the word ‘rental’ once and for all.

Incredible Jaxon Smith-Njigba

What an unbelievable catch that was to win the game. Stunning. It’s the kind of play you need to see from a player you draft as highly as JSN. The nature of the catch — finger-tips at full stretch, the body-control, the fact he got open in the first place, then the ability to complete the catch to the ground. That was special — one of the best catches to win a football game you’ll see.

We don’t need to see Jamal Adams play for the Seahawks again

Nothing more needs to be said.

Well done to Drew Lock, but…

If the Seahawks want to give themselves the best chance to win their remaining three games, Geno Smith — for me — is still the better player. That was a fantastic 92-yard drive to win the game by Lock and he deserves credit for it. Up until that point, though, he looked very similar to Charlie Whitehurst.

For me it’s pretty much a pointless debate anyway. Smith has already been declared the starter by Pete Carroll if healthy next week and neither player is the answer long term. The Seahawks have to find a way to draft a quarterback.

I have mixed feelings about the win

There’s no point lying about it, I wasn’t exactly jumping for joy when the Seahawks won. I don’t think it makes me a ‘bad fan’, although some will suggest that. I never root against the Seahawks, I just watched with a very balanced emotional state. I also stayed up until 5:30am to watch then reflect on the game (just in case anyone wants to question my commitment to the cause).

I do fear, though, that the Seahawks are now absolutely heading for the playoffs — which will create the impression that everything is mostly OK again, will put off necessary changes to drive the team forwards and a lot of the conversations we’ve been having for the last few years will simply extend into 2024.

The perfect scenario would be ending the season with a flourish to allow Carroll to bow-out gracefully. That would be the best of both worlds. Instead I suspect we’re going to see an epic papering over the cracks with a playoff qualification that will be of the back-door nature, in a NFC that is — if we’re being honest — absolutely woeful apart from one team. Talk of ‘running it back’ and it being ‘crazy’ to part with Carroll will emerge, even though all of the relevant complaints from recent weeks remain. They beat a collapsing Eagles team who look a shadow of their former selves.

I think for the Seahawks to have a chance to be great again they need an offensive-minded Head Coach (Bobby Slowik increasingly feels like a great shout, especially if you’re drafting a QB) and a new young quarterback. Immediate contention isn’t very likely but I think it’ll set you on the path to potentially get there.

I cannot in any way, shape or form imagine Carroll, Clint Hurtt and Shane Waldron leading the Seahawks to the promise land. I can’t even imagine them getting one over Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay in the division. The thought of another year of watching four embarrassing defeats to the 49ers and Rams is about as desirable as watching ‘Christmas with the Kranks’ (the worst film ever made).

I appreciate other people’s response to this is ‘just enjoy the win’. I respect anyone who feels that way and does indeed want to take solace and enjoyment from inflicting a third straight defeat on the Eagles. If you disagree with me, that’s perfectly cool. All I ask is you offer that same attitude to me. I am less enthused than you are about the win because it increases the chances of necessary changes not happening after this season. That concerns me, because I can’t see any alternative other than the same repetitive issues with the Carroll Seahawks. More bad defense. More inconsistent identity. More failing to provide answers or solutions to problems. More losing to Shanahan and McVay.

The last few weeks have felt like a natural end is on the horizon after 14 years. I don’t feel any differently after this game.

That was my prevailing thought after the win. I don’t like it but can’t lie either.

If you missed my post-game live stream, check it out here:

This is a guest post by Curtis Allen…

The Seahawks and the Eagles find themselves in very similar circumstances as they prepare to face off tonight.

Although the Eagles are far better positioned – having already secured a playoff spot at 10-3 – they find themselves not playing very good football. They have been playing to a level that is less than the sum of their parts.

When faced with some of the NFL’s better teams, the defense has not been able to match up with them very well in terms of scheme and execution. Their tackling and effort have been off and their linebackers and safeties have been easy targets for enterprising offensive coordinators. They currently are the worst team in the NFL at getting off the field on third downs.

As a result, in the last six games, they have allowed an average of 428 yards and 30 points.

It is not completely the defense’s fault though. The Eagles in that same stretch have starved their running backs of carries and put the lion’s share of their offense on the shoulders of the passing game. Therefore, the defense has been on the field far more than they should be and the team is routinely behind in time of possession.

They come into this week’s game looking to get back on their feet and recalibrate to get on track for the stretch run and the playoffs.

Is any of this sounding familiar?

While the Eagles and Seahawks do not have a direct rivalry by nature of their geography, they often find each other at a bit of a crossroads for both franchises. They usually meet at a time when they are struggling with their division mates and trying to confirm their status as a contender. Tonight is no exception.

Pete Carroll has long come out ahead in these sorts of encounters. He has never once lost to the Eagles in his Seahawks tenure. That might bring a measure of comfort to Seahawks fans but the truth is, many things have changed since these two last met in November of 2020.

Nick Sirianni has taken over as head coach, Jalen Hurts has become a fixture at quarterback and they punctuated their ascent with a Super Bowl appearance last season.

Meanwhile, Seattle has been one of the NFL’s worst defenses in that stretch. The addition of a ridiculously priced safety team to the detriment of the defensive line combined with a lack of coordinators that can scheme up the talent they do have has conspired to crush any hopes of making a deep playoff run.

The Seahawks are most certainly at a crossroads. Having lost four in a row, they limp into the final leg of the Quadrangle of Death stretch of their schedule with very dim prospects.

A talent-stacked defense looks shaky and slow. The offense struggles to support it by either turning the ball over, three-and-outing or ironically, scoring too quickly. Questions of motivation from Pete Carroll, the job competency of both coordinators, game planning and the handling of internal matters are dogging this team at the worst possible time.

This matchup is the Eagles’ typical strength against the Seahawks’ typical weakness: trench play. The game has many stars like A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, De’Andre Swift and Kenneth Walker. But the battle is won or lost on the lines and the Eagles have a decided advantage there.

Which, according to the Magic-eight-ball-like way the NFL operates, means the Seahawks will put together a solid effort and make this game competitive.

Let’s look at how that could happen.

Attack Philadelphia with the Passing Game

I have spent a ton of time in my previous posts beating the drum for the Seahawks to employ their investments in the running back position more liberally. The Seahawks have been unusually pass-happy this year, going into this weekend’s slate of games as the #5 offense in the NFL in play selection being the pass.

Yet they have an opportunity to really control this game by taking advantage of the Eagles’ weakness in defending the pass.

First off, the personnel: Their best corner (Darius Slay) will not play due to injury. That means that they will likely roll out 31-year-old Bradley Roby (who has been more of a plug in nickel/safety type the last couple seasons) or rookie Kelee Ringo (a fourth-round size/speed prospect Rob scouted extensively), who has 28 NFL snaps of experience at defense in his spot.

Their other starting corner (James Bradberry) is hitting age 30 hard and has yet to adjust to losing a step in his speed. Currently, Bradberry has given up more touchdowns than any corner in the NFL with 10. Quarterbacks have a 111 rating when targeting him and he is conceding 11 yards per reception in coverage.

New acquisition Kevin Byard has only one interception this season and is sporting a 109 QB rating when targeted and Reed Blankenship is still trying to fill out in his first year as a full-time starter. If the Seahawks manage to get Blankenship isolated on a receiver – any receiver – that should be a win for them.

The Eagles are a bit stuck with their personnel. The linebackers are just a step ahead of Bobby Wagner and Jordyn Brooks in coverage and offenses have “caught” them on the field in passing situations often and taken advantage.

If I had to guess, the change in defensive coordinators means more man coverage than zone. Sean Desai ran out an extraordinary percentage of zone and without elite corner or safety play, teams were able to find their holes rather easily and exploit them regularly.

Now the stats. The Eagles are the NFL’s worst team in defending wide receivers. They have given up 206 catches and 23 touchdowns — both of which are league-bottom. Only the Washington Commanders have given up more yards to wide receivers than the Eagles have. You might recall that Geno Smith and the Seahawks had a season-best day throwing the ball against Washington, recording 369 yards through the air.

Are they covering Tight Ends any better? Not really, no. They have conceded six touchdowns and are allowing a 75% completion rate when Tight Ends are targeted.

D.K. Metcalf. Tyler Lockett. Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Jake Bobo. Noah Fant.

Someone on the Eagle defense is going to be overmatched every time one of those players is on the field. While it seems easy to say the quarterback’s job will be to find the mismatch and exploit it, there is no matchup he should be concerned about, save for a double or triple team.

In truth his biggest job will be to make sure he makes himself available to throw the ball cleanly.

I am guessing that Matt Patricia will dial back the blitz a bit and be more selective. Consider this a “shooting fish in a barrel” move because the Eagles are one of the NFL’s worst defenses when they blitz: They have no interceptions, have conceded a 69% completion rate for an average of 8.7 yards per attempt and eight touchdowns. They only have 10 sacks on the blitz but are one of the better teams in the NFL when it comes to Hurries and Pressures (both #2). Some of that is a function of them not getting off the field properly, as their Pressure Rate is 23.4%, good for #9 in the NFL. That sounds good but another pedestrian game like the streak they are on will have them dropping into the teens.

The NFL is trending towards quick throws and yards after catch to defend the pass rush. The Seahawks will need to employ both of these things and their quarterback will need to discern when to get rid of the ball and when to use his feet to ascend in the pocket to create time for options and deeper routes to open up.

Another way to take advantage of the defense: get a lead early and maintain it. This defense has recorded only six of their 37 sacks this year when behind on the scoreboard. That may change with Patricia but this defense loses their teeth when trying to get the team back in the game. Add in their poor third down record and it creates a bit of a cascading loop the have not been able to escape from lately.
There is no excuse for the Seahawks to not take advantage of their weakness.

Stop De’Andre Swift

I imagine that Eagles fans are as frustrated as Seahawks fans about their use of running backs this year. Old friend Rashaad Penny has been an afterthought, only being active for two games and getting a grand total of six touches in 2023 so far.

Especially lately, their choices on offense with feature back De’Andre Swift have been very confusing.

Swift got a meager 11 touches against Dallas in their big loss last week, after recording only eight touches against San Francisco the week before.

Lately the Eagles offense has devolved into three main options: running Jalen Hurts, liberally throwing to A.J. Brown on the slant play that was his bread and butter when with the Titans and taking deeper shots with DeVonta Smith (only five WR’s in the NFL have more targets deeper than Smith).

It has gotten a bit stale and predictable and opponents like San Francisco and Dallas have sniffed it out and taken advantage of their lack of diversity.

When Swift is used liberally and properly, he is an engine that makes the Eagle offense go. They have used him wisely at times and then decided to limit his touches at times, despite him not appearing on the injury report even once this year (not even after getting absolutely rocked by Kam Chancellor, I mean, Deommodre Lenoir).

With questions of Jalen Hurts’ health and the potential of backup Marcus Mariota stepping in tonight, it is logical that the Eagles would turn to Swift to carry much more of the load.

The defense will need to be better in between the tackles and react decisively when they try to gadget Swift up with some plays to loosen the linebackers and safeties up for deeper shots.

Play Better

This is more of a gripe than a watch point.

The Seahawks have failed to make their fans proud of the way they play for much of this season.

Poorly timed penalties, losing their cool, bad play calls, ‘what were you possibly thinking’ mistakes, turnovers, bad angles and worse tackling have all been regular features of games we have had to endure this year.

Enough.

There is a stink over this franchise currently and perhaps it is one that can only be solved by regime change.

But for one game – even in a loss – this team needs to reward fans’ patience with a solid, well-put together effort that can give us some reason to keep intently watching for the rest of the season.

The whole nation will be watching tonight. Can they deliver it?

We will see.

There are only two worthwhile descriptions for a NFL franchise.

Super Bowl contender, or on a journey to become a Super Bowl contender.

If you don’t fit either category, it’s a waste of time.

A lot is made of Mike Tomlin’s record of never having a losing season. It sounds great. The reality is the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016. They do a great job avoiding being awful (until now, at least). That’s it. Hang the banner.

Tomlin’s teams have muddled along, being good enough to be vaguely relevant for a period without anyone actually thinking they’re going to win a Super Bowl.

This year they’re 7-7 with at least a chance to once again avoid a losing season. Yet during a three-game losing streak against the Cardinals, Patriots and Colts — nobody can say with a straight face that the Steelers are ‘contenders’.

For me, this is a dangerous place for a team to be. It prevents you from taking the actions needed to become contenders again. It’s why I worry about the Seahawks — because it feels like they’re in a very similar place.

For Seattle it’s one playoff win in six years, against a very average Eagles team featuring 40-year-old Josh McCown at quarterback. In the last seven seasons (including this one), they’ve won the NFC West just once. It’s their worst run since re-joining the division in 2002.

The Seahawks have been far from a bad team but they’ve also consistently felt like they’re a ways off being a serious challenger. On top of this, persistent issues have blighted the team — such as poor defensive output and an identity that comes and goes. It’s been nearly a decade since the Seahawks have felt like a legit contender.

Whenever this is brought up, there’s a rapid-fire response from some fans accusing others of being ‘spoilt’. How can you possibly complain about being in the playoff mix? Other teams would love to be in that position.

I would challenge that. Fans of the Browns, for example, do not dream of being the Seahawks. They dream of being the Chiefs, competing in three Super Bowls in recent years. They dream of being the 49ers, a consistent contender for multiple years. They’ll think about copying the Buccs and Rams, recent winners of the Super Bowl. Or can they find a way to emulate the Eagles, Super Bowl winners and runners-up within a few years?

They don’t want to be a team that is ‘good enough to maybe qualify for the playoffs’. It’s utterly pointless. As I said at the start, you need to either be a contender or be on a path to becoming one. Crappy teams don’t aspire to be average teams. The end result is the same. And fans of average teams shouldn’t settle into the comfort of merely not being ‘bad’.

I would argue the Steelers and Seahawks are stuck in a large NFL middle-ground — or purgatory as some people call it. They do just enough every year to stay in this zone and it just leads to avoiding making difficult decisions to enact needed change.

I can’t watch Pittsburgh’s last three games and think they’re a good off-season away. Their offense needs a total rebuild from scratch. This likely isn’t possible within 24 months, when a lot of the core, impressive defensive talent will be nearing the end of their careers.

The Seahawks are different, their issues flip-flop between offense and defense a lot more. They don’t have a defense like Pittsburgh’s but they have a better quarterback and weapons. Schematically they feel uncultured on both sides of the ball and they haven’t had a ‘big’ eye-catching win for several years (beating the Lions doesn’t count, I’m afraid).

The Steelers are 7-7 and the Seahawks are 6-7.

Both teams would lap the Panthers or Patriots in a race. Both would be battered by the 49ers and well-beaten by other legit contenders.

The problem is, neither team regresses enough to have a serious conversation about any of this. The topic is consistently dodged and those wishing to discuss it are derided as ungrateful lunatics.

Maybe Pittsburgh’s reaching that point now, given just how bad they’ve been recently? It started to happen in Seattle this week, with serious reporters speculating on Carroll’s future.

Yet if either or both teams sneak into the playoffs as a lousy seventh seed, making up the numbers so the greedy NFL can make even more money with it’s dumb ‘Super Wildcard Weekend’ nonsense, I suspect the same narrative will begin all over again.

‘How can you criticise Tomlin/Carroll, they’re in the playoffs!‘

Rinse and repeat. See you in 12 months where the same thing happens again. Meanwhile we all get a bit older, the Steelers still suck on offense and Carroll is still talking about trying to fix the same old problems and Jamal Adams is still earning a fortune to deliver a crappy PFF grade while celebrating the other team ‘only’ gaining seven yards on first down.

Neither team is on the path to contention. I suspect neither will get there without bold, serious change.

Firstly, the coaches. Both are Super Bowl winners yet neither seems likely to reach that point again. Particularly in the case of 72-year-old Carroll, with only two years remaining on his contract and possibly his career. Does anyone think two more years of doing the same thing in Seattle will lead to a title? If not, what’s the reason for continuing? Convenience ahead of a franchise sale we speculate a lot about but know little about in reality? Existing purely for Carroll to work to his preferred timescale, rather than what is most optimal for team success?

Meanwhile with Tomlin — Pittsburgh’s offense is so utterly dreadful, they look like a team that needs to pivot to a younger, more creative offensive mind — paired with a more aggressive approach to fixing the quarterback position.

They’ve been in charge since 2007 in Tomlin’s case and 2010 in Carroll’s. That’s a long time. Eventually, you need a different vision. Things can’t just go on forever. The Patriots are experiencing that currently. Bill Belichick’s legacy is being slightly impacted by seeing just how bad New England are without Tom Brady. Nobody will take away Belichick’s rightful place as one of the all-time greats. Yet it’s pretty clear now that Brady’s brilliance, paired with his ability to put up with Belichick’s grumpy, borderline toxic ways, is what led to so much success. Without Brady, the Patriots are bloody awful and fairly shambolic.

Without peak-Ben Roethlisberger, Tomlin likewise hasn’t been able to create a winner. Without the LOB, Marshawn Lynch and peak-Russell Wilson, Carroll’s in the same boat. Neither coach, as an individual, seems to be elevating their teams schematically. This is a stark contrast to the work of Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVay and even coaches like Zac Taylor, winning with a backup quarterback.

Tomlin and Carroll would be best served avoiding Belichick’s fate and going out with fond memories still attached, rather than letting things get even sourer.

Yet I can’t shake the feeling that the Seahawks will beat the collapsing, injury-hit Eagles on Monday and we’ll have a week of fans and media crowing that any suggestion of a future beyond Carroll is the stuff of entitlement and stupidity.

I said a few weeks ago I think Carroll can still be a Super Bowl Head Coach. In order to do it, though, he’d need to be prepared to change. My favourite Carroll quote is, “it’s never too late to reinvent yourself.” I wish he would’ve taken that advice a while ago, acknowledged his flaws (schematics, details) and gone out to employ the best coordinators money can buy and let them run the offense and defense, becoming an experienced overseer and motivator.

He’ll never do that. Control is too important for Carroll. He needs to do things his way. It’s the only reason he ever returned to the NFL, because the Seahawks were offering total control.

That’s not to say he hasn’t tried to delegate. Clearly we saw that with ‘Let Russ Cook’ in 2020. Yet at the first sign of trouble, he wrestled back control and they went back to Carroll-ball. It was indicative of how uncomfortable he is ceding responsibility and there’s no chance, sadly, of him ever being a Nick Saban type of Head Coach who gives the keys to his coordinators.

I can’t root against the Seahawks. I’m a Seahawks fan. I never miss a game, despite many beginning in the early hours of the morning. I’ve committed 15 years of my life to writing a blog about the team, eating my free time at a rate comparable to a dog let loose in a butcher’s.

I also can’t say I’ll be that pumped watching the Eagles game on Monday, or feeling very celebratory if they win. I fear the Seahawks will finish by beating some bad teams, potentially squeeze into the playoffs (they only need to usurp the Rams and Packers, who are both wildly inconsistent) and we’ll have more false dawn rhetoric, ‘run-it-back’ platitudes and we’ll get to witness 2024 looking exactly like 2023.

There are two, maybe three teams in the NFC who are actually good. The rest are mediocre or awful. Being seventh best in a bad conference, during a poor-quality NFL season, qualifying for the playoffs and then making very little noise in the post-season, is not attractive if all it does is delay the kind of front-line change required to get this team back to the top.

I don’t want to endure another year of excuses for having another very expensive bottom-10 defensive unit. I can’t listen to chatter about identity when they can’t run the ball. I don’t want to hear over-hyped praise for Seattle’s culture while people like Jamal Adams act like a jerk on social media with zero public accountability from Carroll or the team. Most importantly, I can’t watch Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay continue to dance rings around a coach who has no counter-punch for either of them.

New ideas, a new vision, a new quarterback, fresh attention to detail, expensive and underperforming players cut, re-emphasis on the trenches and the potential to be back on the path to contention, rather than deluding ourselves (as the Seahawks did with the Leonard Williams trade) that we’re already there.

That is what’s required in Seattle.

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