The reality check of the Ravens, Rams and 49ers games leaves little in the way of optimism for the rest of the season. Either the Seahawks are going to back-into the playoffs as a sixth or seventh seed (they’re only competing with Minnesota, Green Bay and perhaps the Rams, after all) or they’re going to miss out. It doesn’t feel particularly exciting to discuss this, especially given the likelihood of a swift wildcard exit based on what we’re seeing.

I want to talk about what happens at the end of the season and provide a possible outcome.

It’s starting to feel inevitable that Shane Waldron’s days are numbered in Seattle. On Friday, Pete Carroll bemoaned an inability to properly feature their different offensive weapons, at one point listing several names he feels could be used to greater effect. He even admitted there might be too many mouths to feed and openly discussed a lack of identity on offense.

He’s right to highlight these things because it’s all blatantly true. Yet as the Head Coach, he should’ve fixed it by now. It’s not good enough to be talking about identity issues 11 games into a season.

It’s even more frustrating when you consider Carroll is 13 years into his tenure in Seattle and has, seemingly, great clarity on what he wants his team to look like. The offensive coordinator is in year-three, not year-one. Plus we’ve just seen a San Francisco team make great use of their weapons at Seattle’s expense. They’re not having any headaches on how to best use Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. So why are the Seahawks?

It’ll be a huge faux pas if fans and media only focus on Waldron and Geno Smith. The buck stops with the Head Coach.

I’d argue we’ve not seen the Seahawks properly function as a closed circle unit since 2018. Back then, they had the #1 rushing offense in the NFL. It synched well with Russell Wilson at the peak of his powers. They also had Frank Clark and Jarran Reed rushing the passer — enabling the Seahawks to have the fourth best pressure percentage in the NFL. They beat really good teams in 2018 — the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. The two games against the Rams finished 33-31 and 36-31. They were close and exciting.

That season should’ve been the platform to build and it wasn’t. They squandered it. Since then, they’ve had major issues with the pass rush, run defense, balance on offense, ‘Let Russ Cook’ and now the husk of an offense we are seeing week to week. In the five years since 2018, there’s always something glaring that needs to be fixed.

That’s on Carroll. Not the current coordinator. Not the current quarterback. Carroll.

Frankly, this off-season feels like the perfect time to try something new. Install an offensive Head Coach who can make the most of the weapons on the roster and draft a quarterback he can work with for the next era of Seahawks football.

Carroll isn’t going to coach forever and the Seahawks are not getting closer to a fairytale Championship send-off to end his career. They just aren’t. They’re a mile away, if recent performances are anything to go by.

The franchise can’t be paralysed by ownership not wanting to make any dramatic moves before a sale and if that’s the reason for inactivity, Jody Allen shouldn’t release statements like she did 18 months ago insisting neither the Seahawks or Blazers are for sale. She should look to sell as soon as possible — with the window opening next summer — to allow someone to take over who can make the big decisions.

That statement in July 2022 ended with, “my focus – and that of our teams – is on winning.” Prove it. One playoff win in six years (soon to be seven), a 15-14 record since the second reset, the first reset was propped up by Russell Wilson and as mentioned, there are consistently glaring issues with the team that seem to catch Carroll off guard. He then spends most of the season trying to answer why this is the case. This is winning on a ‘not the Cardinals’ level. This isn’t winning on a 49ers, Eagles, Chiefs level — the level required to be a serious contender.

They’ve won the NFC West twice in the last eight years. Before Russell Wilson, the Seahawks were 15-19. Since trading Wilson, they’re 15-14. That record could be about to get worse.

Carroll’s number of wins and overall success in Seattle shouldn’t be dismissed. Yet it often lacks context. How good are you, really, when your only playoff win in the last six years came against an opponent who lost its quarterback early on and had to field a 40-year-old fill-in backup? How much has actually been achieved since that fateful final game of the 2014 season? How much of their success since then was down to Wilson? Without a top quarterback leading the way, what are they currently?

Whenever you talk about a future without Carroll, you almost have to apologetically reference your gratitude. I hope, soon, we can just assume everyone has that gratitude. There’s no agenda here other than a desire to once again reach the pinnacle. What is most likely to get the Seahawks to the top? The Eagles fired Doug Pederson three seasons after he won a Super Bowl. Two years later, they were back in the Super Bowl. The Eagles seem committed to winning. These days, it feels increasingly like the Seahawks are committed to being able to beat bad teams.

In September I wrote a critical article after the week one defeat to the Rams, discussing five relevant criticisms of Carroll’s Seahawks.

The first point discussed the way the defense hasn’t been good enough for a long time. The defense feels like less of an issue than the offense currently. However, consider what has been spent on the unit and then reflect on whether the 21st best unit per DVOA is a fitting result for this level of resource:

— Three second rounds picks on pass rushers (Taylor, Mafe, Hall)

— Big free agent splash (Jones)

— Trading a second rounder in 2024 (Williams)

— First round pick at linebacker (Brooks)

— Veteran free agent additions (Reed, Wagner)

— Top-five pick at cornerback (Witherspoon)

— Big salaries (Diggs, Adams, Nwosu, Jones)

— Huge trade (Adams)

With this level of spend, they should at least be above average. Per DVOA, something Carroll frequently references, they aren’t. Further to this, key target areas for improvement (eg, run defense) showed signs of positivity early in the season. Since then, the Seahawks have dropped to 21st in the NFL in rush yards conceded per game (117). With an upcoming schedule like they have, this could get even worse.

As Mookie Alexander at Field Gulls notes:

How much longer do we have to wait for this unit to actually be demonstrably good? Not “good against the absolute worst offenses” or “good for about five weeks and then below-average the other 12 weeks.” If this is going to persist for as long as Pete Carroll is in charge, then the only way the Seahawks can be elite again under his watch is if they have a quarterback and consequently an entire offense that can consistently overcome less than stellar defensive play.

Point #2 discussed whether the game has changed, noting that the last five Super Bowls have featured offensive-minded Head Coaches:

Chiefs vs Eagles — two offensive-minded Head Coaches

Rams vs Bengals — two offensive-minded Head Coaches

Buccaneers vs Chiefs — two offensive-minded Head Coaches

Chiefs vs 49ers — two offensive-minded Head Coaches

Patriots vs Rams — one defensive-minded, one offensive-minded coach

That’s nine offensive-minded Head Coaches and Bill Belichick.

Nothing about the last few weeks makes this feel any less pertinent. Plus, look at the teams with the best records in the NFL currently:

Miami — Mike McDaniel
Chiefs — Andy Reid
Jaguars — Doug Pederson
Eagles — Nick Sirianni
49ers — Kyle Shanahan

Baltimore are led by John Harbaugh who appears to act as a figurehead. The Lions have Dan Campbell who cedes to Ben Johnson on offense, arguably the top Head Coaching candidate for the next cycle. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell is doing a fine job with the Vikings, Matt LaFleur is turning things around for the Packers, Sean Payton is leading Denver on a five-game winning streak and the Browns have Kevin Stefanski.

There isn’t a single team currently among the NFL’s elite with a defensive-minded Head Coach.

Point #3 relates to Seattle’s poor playoff record — one win in six (soon to be seven, if we’re honest). Point #4 was simply titled, ‘They can’t recapture their chosen identity’. No extra comment needed there. Point #5, which is less relevant, was their form at home. They’re currently 4-2 at Lumen Field. They’ve defeated the Panthers, Cardinals, Browns and Commanders, losing to the Rams and 49ers.

It should be a major criticism of Carroll that the team has no identity. How can that be possible when he’s been in the job for this long, having spent the resources he has to shape the roster? They’ve spent a treasure-trove of draft picks, all of the cap money this year and next, they’ve made big splashes in free agency and they’ve traded away their second rounder next year. All that investment, all that resource, and they can’t even deliver a clear identity?

Carroll’s future should be discussed. Before anyone frets about moving on and being careful what you wish for — a quick reminder that similar things were said about moving on from Mike Holmgren. Five years after his departure, Seattle won a Super Bowl. Plus, very few people had heard about Nick Sirriani or Mike McDaniel before they were appointed. Sirianni was Frank Reich’s offensive coordinator in Indianapolis. That’s Frank Reich who has just been fired mid-season for the second year in a row. Sirianni is 24-4 in 2022/23 and nearly won a Championship. You don’t always need to go out and hire an obvious name with credentials galore. Sirianni attacks opponents and makes the most of his weapons. His culture and identity is to be aggressive. Those coaches are out there.

Sure, it helps that he has talent on the roster. Nobody earmarked Jalen Hurts to be a Super Bowl quarterback when Sirianni took over in 2021, though. Neither did anyone think much of Tua Tagovailoa before McDaniel arrived in Miami. Now, the Dolphins have the most explosive offense in the league. Why? Because they make the most of their weapons, they’re tactically creative and aggressive.

I read this piece from Brian Nemhauser on the plane home from Seattle today and I think Brian makes a very important point about the talent discrepancy between the Seahawks and 49ers. I do think, however, that the pathway to the Seahawks being more competitive and a contender isn’t quite as bleak.

The example of the Dolphins is a good one. I’m not sure I fancy Miami to win a Super Bowl but I also wouldn’t completely rule it out. They’re in contention for the #1 seed in a difficult AFC, they’ll be a tough out for any opponent and they’re fun to watch. That doesn’t seem out of reach for the Seahawks with the right plan. I’d also expect the Dolphins to give the 49ers a better game than Seattle did last week.

Trent Williams turns 36 next year, George Kittle 31 and Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Fred Warner will turn 28. Williams, Kittle and Samuel have recently experienced injuries. Further to this, Brock Purdy is 18 months away from needing to be paid. So while it’s fair to expect the 49ers to be the dominant force in the NFC West for another couple of years, I’m not sure this is necessarily a long-term problem. Many of their players are well into their careers.

Look at other teams in the league. The Bengals have a horrible offensive line and have done for years. Their defense is good not great. They made a Super Bowl because Joe Burrow is excellent, he has weapons and they know how to use them. I’d argue the Bills, struggling as they might be currently, have been a contender in recent seasons because of Josh Allen and an organised defense rather than a Niners-level of talent. There’s also the Chiefs — who rely a lot on Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Chris Jones but otherwise have a so-so roster.

The Seahawks do not necessarily need to mimic the 49ers by going on an epic personnel run. They just need to be a lot better than they currently are.

Some may disagree but I think this is achievable by doing three things:

1. Having someone run the offense who can attack opponents, exploit weaknesses and make the most of the weapons available

2. Drafting a quarterback

3. Transferring resource from positions such as linebacker/safety to the trenches

I think people can easily be defeatist about point number two. I read/hear a lot about how difficult it is to find a great quarterback. That’s true — but it doesn’t mean it isn’t possible. The aim also doesn’t have to be to find the next Mahomes, as teams like the Eagles and Dolphins are showing. The Ravens, lest we forget, drafted their MVP candidate with the #32 pick.

I’ll go back to the Hurts example. He’s not a traditional ‘franchise quarterback’ destined to dominate the league for two decades. He works for the Eagles, though, and they get the most out of him. Creating a plan for your quarterback and his supporting cast can lead to results. How else do you explain the Vikings winning with Joshua Dobbs, catapulted into the line-up mid-season?

This week I’ll publish my horizontal board for the first time and there are lots of quarterbacks listed. It’s a deep year. You might not find the next Hall-of-Famer within the class but I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility you can find a very good starter who you can build an offense around. I’ll talk more about drafting a quarterback in a moment.

Point number three is something I’ve banged on about for a long time. Having $50m of cap space tied up in Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams next year is preposterous. The thought of retaining that and then paying Jordyn Brooks — and potentially retaining Bobby Wagner — just doesn’t make sense while questions remain on both sides of the ball up front, in the trenches. The aim for the Seahawks moving forward should be to be physical and excellent on the O-line and D-line. Simple as that.

Back to the first point on a new offensive leader. It’ll either come down to the franchise making a significant change at the top, which is very much in the ‘has to be seen to be believed’ category — although as mentioned earlier, it shouldn’t be out of the question as much as people think. If Jody Allen is running the franchise rather than acting as a placeholder as she claims, that requires big calls to be made — regardless of a future sale. If Carroll isn’t to depart, then they could/should still make a significant offensive coordinator hire. Let’s look at both scenarios.

For a while now I’ve thought if/when Carroll goes, Dan Quinn might be his replacement. Rightly or wrongly, there’d be some crossover. Part of me wonders if Allen was ever to turn to Carroll, shake his hand and call time, Carroll’s view on his replacement might be given a little too much credence over a more thorough search.

Carroll speaks so highly of Quinn. Although it would be another defensive minded Head Coach, he knows the benefit of pairing himself with a top coordinator (Kyle Shanahan), he has been to a Super Bowl as a leader and he feels somewhat willing to adapt and shift with the times — staying on top of tactical trends.

He could create a version of the Texans — where DeMeco Ryans is ably supported by Bobby Slowik, overseeing a young quarterback in C.J. Stroud. I’m still dubious though. As Mike Florio frequently highlights — if you have success as an offense, you’ll lose your coordinator. Losing Shanahan was the death knell for Quinn’s time in Atlanta. As noted above, the league is currently being led by teams with offensive identities.

Slowik himself might be worth considering, especially if you’re drafting a quarterback. He’s done a remarkable job with Stroud and is from the Shanahan tree. Other candidates could include Lions OC Ben Johnson, Dolphins OC Frank Smith and Commanders OC Eric Bieniemy. I particularly appreciate Bieniemy, given he walked away from the cushiest job in the NFL (being Mahomes’ coordinator and Andy Reid’s right-hand-man) to take on the same role with the hapless Commanders, working with a fifth round pick and first year starter at quarterback. He’s developed his reputation, with Sam Howell enjoying some success and the Chiefs taking a step backwards offensively without him. You have to respect the risk-factor involved here for Bieniemy.

If Carroll remains, then appointing a new coordinator would be a critical hire. He’s gone through Jeremy Bates, Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer and now, seemingly, Shane Waldron. Usually when you go through offensive coordinators like this, it’s because they get Head Coaching jobs. Instead, all will be fired (assuming Waldron is). That’s an especially poor record and speaks to part of the problem.

A replacement would need to be someone with a track record. It’s possible they could dangle the carrot of being the potential successor to Carroll (without putting it in writing, that won’t work) if things work out. I think this is fairly unlikely but it’s an option. There are other ways to make this an appealing job.

Firstly, Carroll can offer control. I actually think he’s done this with Waldron. There’s no way a Carroll-inspired offense would be running the ball this infrequently. Yet we’re also not seeing anything remotely close to the Shanahan/McVay offense under Waldron — which you would assume he would run given his background. Instead the offense has issues we’d seen before Waldron came to Seattle — making you wonder if Carroll is interfering too much. It’s so confusing.

The weapons on offer should be appealing. Any new coordinator will inherit a loaded roster full of talent. Furthermore, they can surely only get better. Fixing this unit could be seen as an intriguing challenge with a relatively straight forward route to rapid improvement and therefore reputation enhancement.

Thirdly, drafting a quarterback. Offering a new coordinator a chance to develop a young QB will have some appeal to certain candidates. Look how Slowik’s reputation has completely enhanced thanks to his work with Stroud in Houston. It’s also somewhat comforting for any new coordinator coming in that Seattle’s off-season priority is likely to be offense-centric.

We might see some big name coordinators on the market. It’s likely Brandon Staley and Ron Rivera will be fired, potentially making Kellen Moore and Bieniemy available (if they aren’t offered Head Coaching roles, which so far hasn’t happened over multiple cycles).

They could offer Ken Dorsey an opportunity to relaunch his career after being made a scapegoat in Buffalo. They might go and look at supposed ‘up-and-comers’ (although that might be too similar to Waldron) and target someone like Joe Bleymaier (Kansas City’s passing-game coordinator), Marcus Brady (senior offensive assistant for the Eagles), Tanner Engstrand (passing-game coordinator for the Lions), Brian Fleury (tight ends coach in San Francisco), Zac Robinson (Rams QB coach) or Duce Staley (Panthers assistant head coach). I’m sure there are others — these are just some names being projected to eventually gain promotions.

I suppose it’s also possible if Todd Bowles loses his job in Tampa Bay that Dave Canales could be available after a decent year in Tampa Bay. We know Carroll likes to appoint ‘his guys’.

A new offensive coordinator feels inevitable. What about drafting a quarterback though?

As I said after the game on Thursday, Geno Smith isn’t ‘the problem’ for the Seahawks. He just isn’t the solution either. They’re not going to take a big leap with Smith under center or reach the destination they crave. They need to draft someone.

This thought has been bouncing around in my mind for a few weeks and I’m going to chuck it out there today as part of this article. Could they make an ultra-aggressive move up the board, trading up for a quarterback?

Colin Cowherd and John Middlekauf talked about it yesterday. It might start to gain some traction. The Seahawks have pretty much added players at every other position on the roster over the last two off-seasons. Even though the 2023 season is falling apart, on paper they don’t have a lot of ‘glaring’ holes. They’re going to need to create cap space to keep or replace a long list of free agents, as discussed in detail here. But they might be prepared to do that.

It’s harder to move up after trading away your second rounder for Leonard Williams. That said, first round picks are the currency used to make bold trades. Would they be prepared to trade three of them away, just like San Francisco did, to get into range?

It’d be aggressive and risky but perhaps they have that much faith in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye? Many do.

This would be a way to generate excitement again. The franchise is flat at the moment. Sections of the fan base are wondering — quite rightly — what direction the team is heading. A lot of people anticipated growing pains and development. What they’ve seen is the complete collapse of an offense loaded with weapons and a team getting blown-out by good opponents.

They don’t have a cluster of high picks again like the last two years to focus minds and create a buzz. They actually have fewer picks than normal because of the Williams trade. If they keep struggling this year, more and more people are going to ask questions about the future.

Firing Waldron, making a new offensive coordinator hire, then trading up in the draft in order to try and find the Holy Grail at QB is a plan of sorts, whether you personally agree with it or not. When you write the words down, it’s very easy to imagine how this could get people on board again. It could make the 2024 season interesting, rather than feeling like more of the same.

They could bill it as ‘the final piece’ to add to this rebuild when you bring in the new QB. I’m just not convinced there’s any reason at this point to believe Carroll can lead a team back to serious contention. Maybe with an elite QB he could. Yet when you’re unable to even create a functioning identity for your team after two A+ drafts and a massive resource spend, how can you be confident he’d get it right?

Personally, I’m not sure they need to be this aggressive. I think good quarterbacks will be available to Seattle without moving up. It’s a deep group so whether it’s Spencer Rattler, Jayden Daniels, Quinn Ewers or whoever — they don’t necessarily have to move up. It comes down to grading and whether they want to be aggressive for a player with a top-five range versus settling for someone available later. Let’s not forget that Mahomes was the 10th pick, Jackson the 31st etc.

What do I think will happen? I think the Seahawks will fire Waldron, try to make a key offensive coordinator hire to fix the offense and they will then either trade up aggressively for a quarterback or they will simply draft one early. That’s my guess for the off-season as of the 27th November. I think a fresh start — appointing a new Head Coach to go with a new QB — would give you a better chance to right the ship. I’m just not sure Allen will do it.

Thoughts?

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I’ve just got back to the hotel following the Apple Cup and wanted to share my observations…

I’ve enjoyed watching Michael Penix this season. He has excellent arm strength, he comes across well and he has elevated his team. There’s no getting away from the fact this was a poor performance though.

I’ve mentioned recently that he’s been ‘off’ with his accuracy for a few weeks and has resorted to throwing to areas rather than aiming passes. A reminder that his completion percentage was 74.9% through five games and then in the next six, it’s dropped to 59.5%. Today he completed 54.5% of his throws, dropping that number even further to 58.5%.

There were several misses in the first half despite a lack of pressure forcing mistakes. He was off-target and inaccurate and there appeared to be miscommunication issues. I hate to say it but it was very much like watching the Seahawks at times. Nothing was clicking.

His first touchdown came on a coverage bust. The defensive back covering Rome Odunze fell over at the LOS allowing a free 40-yard score. The second touchdown was a classic hook-up between Penix and Odunze. The ball’s in a spot where Odunze can adjust to the football and catch at the back-shoulder. I was told this week that Odunze can run a 4.37 forty and given his sensational body control, consistency, hands and first-class character — there’s no doubt for me he’ll be a very high pick. Don’t be shocked if he goes in the top-10.

Penix’s interception was a bit unlucky — it’s just a good play by the defensive back at the start of the third quarter. However, the wayward throws continued. He threw wildly to Jack Westover who had to make a flying grab despite being wide open. That was right before the second TD to Odunze. For some reason, every time Penix throws to Westover it’s an adventure. It’s like he’s trying to test him with every target.

The end of the game was a mess, even though Washington won. A generous roughing the passer penalty put them in field goal range. What followed was a confusing, fairly awful sequence. All they needed to do was run to kill clock and set up the field goal. Instead, Penix underthrew a pass over the middle to the end zone that should’ve been picked off. Then with just 20 seconds remaining he threw an awful pass to the right corner of the end zone. It needed to go outside (back-shoulder to Odunze) but was thrown inside. The cornerback was ideally placed to make a pick but instead tipped it into the air and it fell incomplete.

Then, Penix sat in the pocket and took a Geno Smith-esque sack for a loss of nine yards, making the field goal attempt far harder. It was bizarre. Everything, it seems, was done to try and blow the end of the game — including the quarterback throwing two turnover-worthy passes and then taking a sack.

As noted, there weren’t any spectacular throws. We’ve seen so many this year, to counter some of the inconsistent stuff. There was one genuine NFL level pass. Penix armed a throw over to the sideline. It’s tight coverage and the DB had position to play the ball, maybe even pick it off. He needed every bit of his arm strength to beat the corner and get it through to the receiver. It was a bullet. But he ended that drive throwing behind his receiver while on the run for an incompletion.

I didn’t see layered passes today. There was very little thrown over the middle. Washington’s offense is playing at a concerning level ahead of the Oregon rematch.

I have to say, I felt like I was watching a mid-round pick today. Despite what some sections of draft media are saying, that might be where he goes. The accuracy issues for several weeks now are part of the issue. The injuries will need to be considered. I was talking to someone recently — and I wasn’t even aware of this — but your entire offense has to change when you start a lefty. It’s not just blocking — the receivers need to learn and adjust to catching passes from a left-handed quarterback.

Me saying he’s probably a third rounder will seem like criticism but that’s only because of ill-judged media hype elsewhere. That might be what he is — and it might be best for him because the team that gets him can take the time to prepare for a lefty to start, allow him to adjust to a new scheme and it’ll give him the best chance to succeed.

I think Bralen Trice is an excellent prospect. He worked through a double team to get a sack in the game and really should’ve been credited with another when he bull-rushed a linemen, disengaged and then worked to the QB. He has a fantastic combination of size, length and agility. I’m told he runs a 4.20 short shuttle at arouind 270lbs. He has every chance to be a top-50 pick.

I enjoyed watching Troy Fautanu live. I’m a big fan. He plays left tackle for the Huskies but looks tailor-made to kick inside to guard. There’s some Alijah Vera-Tucker to his game and he might go in a similar range. Great athlete, he plays with a strong base and can control and anchor. The kind of lineman who deserves to go early.

Washington State quarterback Cam Ward made this a game with some important throws. Like Penix, he also had some misses. I think it really helped seeing him live today. He’s fun to watch but lacks zip in his throws, I’m not sure he’s got the physical potential to start in the NFL and as a runner he’s more elusive than creative. He’s probably a late day three pick at best.

I’ve mentioned Josh Kelly a few times. He’s been a consistent force at receiver for Washington State. He’s also made some incredible catches this year. He had eight catches for 106 yards and a score today. I like him. I appreciate he’s not going to generate much draft buzz but there’s something there. He deserves some attention.

I’m going to enjoy an Old Fashioned in the hotel bar on my final night. I’ve got an article ready to publish tomorrow on the Seahawks. A couple of quick final thoughts. Firstly, a big thank you to Robbie Williams, Curtis Allen and the people at the University of Washington for making this trip a tremendous experience. I’ve been well reminded over the last few days why I fell for the Pacific Northwest 17 years ago and will take every opportunity I can get to come back here. The setting at UW is mind-blowing — the view of Lake Washington next to the stadium has to be seen to be believed. Being given a chance to tour the facility on Thursday was unforgettable.

Finally, jet lag is the undefeated champion of lags.

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This feels different.

The Seahawks under Pete Carroll have had some tough losses over the years. For the most part though, to Carroll’s credit, he’s fielded a team capable of making a difficult outing a close contest.

The 2023 Seahawks are different because they simply can’t do it. Instead, they’re being exposed. The Ravens and 49ers have brutally shown them up. They’ve made it abundantly clear that not only are the Seahawks not at their level, they’re not even close to reaching it.

Having pumped resources into the roster — using a treasure-trove of picks courtesy of the Russell Wilson trade, borrowing their 2024 second rounder on a Leonard Williams rental and using every dollar available to them in cap space both this year and next, they’ve played their hand. Yet the end product is poor.

This isn’t just a young, upstart team taking its lumps. They have young players going through the early years of their careers but every team has that. The reality in Seattle is this is a very expensively acquired roster and far more should be expected from it than 37-3 in Baltimore and 31-13 at home against the 49ers — a scoreline that could’ve easily been far worse.

So much is wrong currently but you have to start with the offense.

I can’t recall a unit so poorly managed as this. Going into the season it looked like a major strength. They had exciting skill-players everywhere. They had a veteran quarterback. The offensive line received investment including a top-10 pick at left tackle. Everything was set up.

Instead of being a strength the offense is a disaster.

The route concepts are so painfully basic. They fail to challenge opponents with any serious misdirection or creativity. They spent two second round picks on the running back position and it’s an afterthought in the offense.

D.K. Metcalf is regressing badly. Geno Smith has regressed badly. They don’t know how to involve the tight ends in the passing game. Tyler Lockett isn’t being used enough.

They get almost no push up front with the offensive line and they’re being bullied most weeks.

Third downs? Awful, week after week. Red zone offense? As bad as you’ll ever see.

The whole thing is broken.

How could they come out in this game against a common opponent and not have anything to throw at them? They started the game with a quarterback draw from a QB who’d spent the entire week nursing an injury. If it wasn’t a draw and simply a blown play, what does that say for the organisation of the offense if you botch your first offensive play in a scripted series?

The next two play-calls? A throw that required Smith to arm it out to the sideline or risk an interception (again, with a bad injury to his arm) and then a dropped interception. This, of course, after being gifted great field position by a Dee Eskridge kick return.

How was that the plan? Especially from a team still claiming they want to run the ball — claims made by their words and actions (drafting Walker & Charbonnet). Then look at the 49ers. Creative, different, deceptive, imaginative, fast.

Whatever happens, it’s impossible to see how Shane Waldron can carry on beyond this season. This is a unit that had everything to succeed and instead it’s a hopeless mess.

He isn’t alone. D.K. Metcalf is on a contract worth $24m a year. They aren’t getting value for money. Geno Smith was far from ‘the problem’ tonight but he isn’t the solution either. You are not going to elevate yourself from what we’ve seen this year to a true contender with Smith under center. They have to draft a quarterback and pair him with a far more productive offensive play-caller.

Defensively it’s difficult to know how far to go. Every week there seems to be a caveat that the offense was so bad, the defense is absolved somewhat of blame. They made some nice stops against the 49ers and had a pick-six for the only touchdown of the game for Seattle. Yet they’re just so easy to play against at times.

Bobby Wagner was picked on again, with Kyle Shanahan following Sean McVay in identifying his lack of mobility in space as an area to exploit. It looked like his feet were made of concrete in the first half. Tackling was poor across the board. They gave up 169 rushing yards (so much for that being fixed) and the D-line was pushed around almost as much as the O-line. Pass rush? Nobody was able to beat a man to make a big play.

Devin Witherspoon is a quality player. He can’t do it on his own though.

Seattle had to make life difficult for Brock Purdy while containing Christian McCaffrey as much as they could. They failed in both areas.

Think about how much has been spent on this unit. Three recent second round picks on edge rushers (Taylor, Mafe, Hall). A huge free agent splash (Jones). An aggressive trade on a rental involving a second rounder (Williams). Another reasonable free agent addition (Reed). A first rounder at linebacker (Brooks) paired with a returning veteran (Wagner). A top-five pick at cornerback (Witherspoon) and a hugely expensive safety duo (Diggs & Adams) with one of the pair costing a fortune via trade. Then you’ve got all the big salaries dished out to the likes of Nwosu, Jones, Diggs and Adams.

Is there a team in the league that has used this much resource on the defense? At this level you expect more than simply beating up Daniel Jones behind a shocking Giants line and competing against the Carolina’s and Arizona’s. You expect a unit that can make you competitive. It isn’t happening.

I’ll finish with the man at the top, Pete Carroll.

It’s clear there was a marked difference in the preparedness to play this game. Kyle Shanahan had his team on it — exploiting weaknesses, flying out of the traps and dominating. The Seahawks were flat, slow and timid.

They don’t have an identity, they don’t do anything noticeably better than any other team and they’ve just been hammered twice in a matter of weeks.

Carroll will always be revered in Seattle for winning the cities’ first Super Bowl. Rightly so. He’s reset the team twice since the LOB glory days though and neither revamp has produced a team getting close to contention. The first reset was carried by Russell Wilson’s peak years. The second is currently sporting a 15-14 record without him.

Where are the Seahawks going under Carroll? There’s no signs of a team climbing the ladder. On recent evidence, they’ve fallen off it.

They’ve been trying for years to get back to the top table. It’s not happening. When does the wait become too long? Will winning two from three against the Titans, Steelers and Cardinals at the end of the year and backing into the playoffs as a seventh seed make everything OK, only to experience another game like we just saw against the 49ers in the wildcard round? What if they now miss the playoffs?

Will Carroll simply firing Waldron and going for the next name on the offensive coordinator list be enough to keep the wolves from the door? Or is it time for this franchise to go and find its own version of Shanahan and McVay if it’s serious about becoming a contender again?

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This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

Where do the Seahawks go from here?

A demoralizing loss to the Rams that left Geno Smith banged up, the defense in fits over a gaggle of penalties, fans questioning Shane Waldron’s intelligence and Pete Carroll’s leadership is really dragging the optimism for Thursday’s game against the Niners down hard.

Is there anything we can cling to, to maybe get a spark?

There is.

In Pete Carroll’s tenure, the Seahawks have lost to the Rams 16 times.  What is their record in the following game?  11-3.  12-3 if you count the Rams beating them in the 2020 playoffs and the Seahawks beating Indianapolis in Week One the next year.

The three losses?  Two of them came in 2021, when they took the Steelers to OT in Geno Smith’s first start and then lost to the Bears by one point on a two-point conversion with a minute to play.  Both of those games get a doink the other way and they are a gaudy 14-1 after a Rams loss.

Is that grasping at straws?  You better believe it is.

And yet, this is the upside of consistently having a 9-7, 10-6 or 9-8 team in Seattle:  They have a few clunkers each year but they also do pull out some wins that are not expected.

The team will need a far better effort than Sunday though.  Coming to Lumen are the loaded-for-bear San Francisco 49ers.  They used their bye week to great effect, snapping themselves out of a 3-game losing streak by demolishing the Jacksonville Jaguars and beating the Tampa Bay Bucs last week.  They have quickly reclaimed their place as one of the best teams in the NFC and the presumptive favorite to win the NFC West.

The Rams offered Matthew Stafford and his 54% completion rate and 70 QB rating.  The Niners have Brock Purdy coming off an 84% completion rate and a perfect 158.3 QB rating.

The Rams had banged-up Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.  The Niners have a red-hot Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Deebo Samuel.

The Rams rolled out Byron Young and had Aaron Donald running more stunts than I had seen in a long time. The Niners have Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave and now Chase Young.

I think you get the idea.

Absent the Niners tripping over their own cleats, the Seahawks have a mountain of things to clean up to make this game a competitive one.  And that is where we must start.

Play Solid, Fundamental Football

This watch point is going to feel like a simple list of sins the Seahawks committed on Sunday.  If any of these things creep into the game against San Francisco, it will be a very hard struggle to establish any momentum to meet this matchup.

They simply cannot give the Niners 130 yards in penalties and expect to be competitive, no matter what kind of day the referees are having.

The offense cannot blunt a nice drive with a key penalty in Field Goal range that backs them up and forces them to settle for a try instead of pushing into the red zone and scoring touchdowns.

They must have a more balanced offense.  Abandoning the ground game in favor of the pass will give the Niner defense all the opportunities they need to make this game easy for them.

On that point, want to see something crazy?  Tampa Bay ran out almost the exact same game mix in their loss last week against San Francisco that the Seahawks did against the Rams.  Witness:

Seattle Running Game:  21 rushes for 68 yards.  Tampa?  18 for 66.

Seattle Passing: 24 of 40 for 236 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.  Tampa?  29 for 45, 246 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT.

You see the problem.  San Francisco won by 13 points and it was not worse due to a good defensive effort by the Bucs.  A Seattle output like that against San Francisco will not provide the desired result.

To be fair, Tampa’s mix was more by design.  Years of catering to Tom Brady has left them with a bare cupboard in the running back department and their only option was to put the game in Baker Mayfield’s hands.

The Seahawks?  Their limitation came from the coaching staff being unwilling or unable to do something so blindingly easy as run the ball and eat the clock with a lead in the second half.

Speaking of that, all three of San Francisco’s losses this season?  They lost the time of possession battle.  Keep that offense off the field, fellas.

On defense, the pass rush must step up.  They have the talent to get pressure without any blitzing packages or special tricks.  Devon Witherspoon, Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner coming screaming through the gaps for pressure is fun.  However, those plays should be the topping on the dessert of making Brock Purdy uncomfortable with their regular linemen.

They also absolutely must tighten up defensive fundamentals like coverage.  The Rams schemed Darrell Henderson wide open on a wheel route last week, but Stafford could not make the completion.  Julian Love was the closest defender to him but was a mile out of position.

Tackling as well.  I do not know how many times I can keep saying this.  The Seahawks are shooting themselves in the foot by not tackling well.  Quandre Diggs was the latest to just come steaming in on Sunday, trying to knock a player off his feet with a hit instead of making a sound wrap up tackle.  It did not work.

Players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey force you to bring them down.  A mauling of the Giants in Week Three featured these three racking up seven broken tackles.  They challenged the Giants defense to take them down and they couldn’t.

Can the Seahawks?  We will see.

Limit Turnovers and Take the Ball Away from Them

We have talked about this before with San Francisco.

Their rankings this year are formidable.  They are the #3 scoring offense and the #1 scoring defense.  They are in the top-10 in all yardage categories except passing yards allowed per game (#15).

A consistent challenge for them in the recent past has been turnovers.

Their three-game losing streak this year featured seven critical turnovers by the San Francisco offense.

What were the circumstances around those turnovers?  The opposition got out to an early start and put pressure on San Francisco to keep up, while eating the clock.  The Niners got increasingly desperate as the game went on, and the turnovers mounted.  Of those seven turnovers, six of them came in the second half.

The one in the first half?  It was a brilliant play by the Vikings.  On their first drive by Minnesota, Charvarius Ward intercepted Kirk Cousins (really, he just ripped the ball out of the receiver’s hands).  Three good plays later, it looked like the Niners were about to take the lead, and the Vikings stripped Christian McCaffrey.  They recovered and then drove the length of the field for a touchdown.  The Vikings never trailed in the game.

Again, we are rightly frustrated with the Seahawk offense’s second half performance.  But we need them to come out of the gate with purpose like they did against the Rams and put their stamp on the game.  Otherwise, Kyle Shanahan has his entire playbook to work with and that is no good for anyone.

Geno Smith must also be sharp and smart with the football.  Offensive miscommunications, desperate throws and strange decisions cannot be regular occurrences in this game.

It should be noted – in their last two games, the Niners have not turned the ball over once, while forcing six against Jacksonville and Tampa, including four that led to the blowout of the Jaguars.  Turnovers cut both ways, people.

Primarily, the defense must create a turnover or two at a minimum and they cannot miss the chance when it is presented to them.

Limit the Number of Explosive Runs by the Niners (especially McCaffrey)

There is another common denominator to San Francisco’s three losses this year:  They were their three worst rushing performances as a team.  That is no coincidence.

In those three games, they had six explosive runs and ended up with 286 total yards, averaging 95 rushing yards per game.

Last year, the Seahawks also played San Francisco in three games.  How many explosive runs did they concede?

Twelve.  Double what those winning teams conceded.

Twelve runs of 10 yards or more.  And those included three ‘super explosive runs’ of 50 yards or more, one in each game.

The Seahawks conceded 540 yards rushing to San Francisco for an awful average of 180 yards per game.

The frustrating part is, take those explosives out and the Niners gained 226 attempts on 100 attempts, or 2.26 yards per rush.  Put another way, the Seahawks ‘won’ the majority of rush attempts but had catastrophic failures on the other ones.

It is incredibly easy (and silly) to say ‘the Seahawks just have to stop all the explosives and they are good.’  The game just doesn’t work that way.

However, it is reasonable to expect the Seahawks to allow no more ‘super explosive’ runs of 50 yards or more.  Take those three out of the equation from last year and their per rush average (even with the other nine explosives) is 3.36 yards per carry.

Can the Seahawks manage that?  Cleveland, Minnesota and Cincinnati could.

Currently, Cleveland (4.1 YPA) is right there in yards per rush attempt conceded with the Seahawks (4.1), Cincinnati (5.0) is much worse and Minnesota (3.7) is better.

Every time we have a game against a top opponent, I often cast my mind to significant investments the Seahawks have made.  The latest one of course is Leonard Williams.  This game is where he needs to prove that the very high price the Seahawks paid was worth it.  Williams, Jarran Reed, Mario Edwards and Dre Jones must have effective games to keep this rushing attack from controlling the game.

How important is it?  Think of all the weapons the Niners have on offense that can do damage to the Seahawks.  Names like Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel.

Christian McCaffrey has more touches than all three of those players combined.

In San Francisco’s three losses this year, McCaffrey only averaged 47 yards on the ground.

Seattle’s Wild Card loss last year?  McCaffrey had 15 carries for 119 yards.  Take out just that one explosive run of 68 yards and what did he get?

51 yards.

It is doable.  They can do it.

I’ve arrived in Seattle (I don’t remember the flight being +10 hours, every day’s a school day). Quick shout out to Mattia who I met at the airport.

The jet lag is kicking in so I’m going to run through the weekend notes quickly.

— Another week, another electric performance from Spencer Rattler. Nothing is surprising with draft media but the total lack of attention paid to Rattler is unbelievable. He’s completely turned his career around. Gone is the cocky gunslinger who trusted his arm to a fault, basically doing whatever he wanted in the name of an attempted big play. Now we see an incredibly mature signal-caller who plays within structure, has the arm talent and skill to be creative on the move and he’s spent the entire year playing behind a sieve of an O-line, giving him first-hand experience of dealing with pressure.

Look at this throw:

Let's gooooooooooooooo 🤙 https://t.co/Zjys3aSLPh pic.twitter.com/df7VmqmiNK

— Gamecock Football (@GamecockFB) November 19, 2023

It’s probably not in Rattler’s top-10 throws for the season (which is saying something) but it’s a big-time NFL play. He’s under immediate pressure. He knows he’s going to get hammered (and he was). He throws a strike anyway for a touchdown. He’s done this all season.

South Carolina have won five games this year and it could’ve been more. It’s all because of Rattler and the man who caught that touchdown, Xavier Legette. There’s no doubt for me Rattler belongs in the first round next year. If he lasts beyond that, someone will get a bargain. He is too talented to ignore. He’s been on a long journey from the High School documentary to Oklahoma and then South Carolina. The player we’ve seen this year is the player who was being touted as a potential top-five pick two years ago. A lot of the quarterbacks who are being talked up in the media wouldn’t stand a chance behind his O-line. He was superb against Kentucky on Saturday and don’t be surprised if a whole bunch of people suddenly remember who he is over the next few weeks.

— Jordan Travis suffered a serious injury on Saturday and will miss the rest of the season. It’s a crushing blow for a player who was showing a lot of promise as a potential mid-round pick (and it also pretty much ends any attractiveness in having Florida State in the final four). How will it impact his stock? He won’t be able to do anything pre-draft and teams will have to check on his progress and recovery throughout. It’s a huge shame for the player. I suspect this will have a fairly serious impact on his stock too, given the extent of the injury.

— Michael Penix Jr continued his run of being clutch, making some eye-catching throws while also being quite erratic and inconsistent in another win for Washington. You have to credit him for the way he is helping the Huskies remain unbeaten. You have to admire the arm talent. Yet you also can’t ignore what’s happened recently.

In the first four games of the season, his PFF grade was 89.9. In the next seven games, his average grade has dropped to 72.2. His completion percentage in the first five games was 75.9%. Again, the number has dropped considerably in the following six games (59.5%).

There’s another trend that’s interesting. PFF tallies ‘big time throws’ as a statistic. He had a season-high five BTT’s against Oregon State, matching the number he had against Oregon. He also had four against Utah, taking his season total to 30. This has enabled him to jump above Jayden Daniels (28) to have the second most BTT’s in college football behind Drake Maye (33). So while the completion percentage has dropped, he’s also started to make more big time throws.

Penix is a really difficult projection. Everything about his arm screams NFL starter. There are 3-5 throws every week where your jaw-drops — arm talent, power, accuracy, touch. Yet there are also so many throws that appear to just be pre-determined shots to areas of the field. Thus, the high number of incompletions. In the NFL you need to be able to throw layered passes with timing and anticipation. It can’t just be shots determined before the snap.

He’s also faced more pressure recently. He’s been sacked four times in the last four games, compared to one sack in his first four games. Penix faced 33 pressures in the first five games when he was putting up massive numbers. In the next six games, when the numbers dropped, he’s faced 67 pressures. Given he will face constant pressure in the NFL, is it safe to argue that what we’ve seen in recent weeks is a better reflection of what he’ll be in the NFL?

It’s also impossible to ignore the brilliance of Rome Odunze. Often you can just identify when he’s 1v1, throw it his general direction and his body control and tracking is so good he’ll make the play. He’s a first round talent.

I’ve spent more time agonising over Penix’s stock than any other player this season because it’s such a contrast in pro’s and con’s, what’s obviously good and what’s difficult to project as translatable. I’m hoping watching him live on Saturday might give me a definitive answer. I’m planning to publish my first horizontal board after the weekend’s college football games.

— It was more of the same for Miami and Tyler Van Dyke. He’s clearly a talented player and there’s a pro in him. However, the Hurricanes are just so badly managed he’s been caught up in the mess. He had some good throws at the weekend. He has a decent arm. He moves well for his size even if he’s never going to be an improv-artist or a threat with his legs. There are flashes where you think he’s legit, then he throws wildly on fourth down in the red zone with the game on the line. I actually hope he doesn’t turn pro and transfers to somewhere like Kentucky or Washington. Go somewhere where they’ve had transfer success with good offensive staffs.

— JJ McCarthy is the most overrated player in draft media. It’s not that he’s bad. He’s just not a first round talent. His arm is nothing special. His accuracy is spotty at best. Michigan have only played one good team (Penn State) and he had eight throws in the game. He’s carried by the rest of the team. On Saturday against Maryland he had a bad pick and two dropped interceptions. Where’s the hype coming from?

— LSU has decided that the rest of their season is a Heisman campaign for Jayden Daniels and I’m here for it. Eight total touchdowns on Saturday and they fed him every one. For more on Daniels, check out my piece from last week.

— Miami saftey Kam Kinchens. My word. He fell asleep in coverage to give Louisville their first score, not travelling with the man he was supposed to be covering. He was ‘Moss’d’ on a downfield shot. A tight end stiff-armed him into 2033. Then, after two other defenders ran into each other creating a wide-open receiver, the pièce de résistance. Kinchens had ideal positioning by the sideline. All he had to do was contain the receiver and push him out of bounds. It’s a bad play already, don’t make it worse. Somehow, the receiver (despite having no space) just runs straight by Kinchens. It’s one of the worst whiffs I’ve ever seen. It ended up being the game-winning score.

Sure, he read a telegraphed, poorly thrown pass for an interception from centre-field earlier. Great. The rest of his game was a house of horrors.

— From overrated to underrated — Washington State receiver Josh Kelly is a heck of a player. He produces spectacular plays, he’s a one-handed-catch ‘trick-shot’ specialist and he’s been a great target for Cam Ward. Another player I’m looking forward to seeing live on Saturday.

— T’Vondre Sweat needed a big season and he has delivered. He’s been the most consistent ‘splash’ interior D-liner this year. He had a blocked extra-point attempt on Saturday that was returned for a two-point conversion. His ability to create and disrupt at his mammoth size is highly impressive. If he can stay motivated and perhaps shift some bad weight, watch out NFL.

— Just as Will Howard was really finishing strongly, he had one of ‘those’ games for Kansas State and Kansas. He has a knack for bad turnovers and bad nearly-turnovers. Kudos to him for helping get the Wildcats over the line but it’s the type of game that makes you think day three instead of day two. That said, he did still have some really nice ‘pro’ throws in the game.

— There might not be a more unheralded duo in college football than Missouri’s Brady Cook and Cody Schrader.

— Carson Beck was excellent for Georgia against Tennessee — the best I’ve seen him play so far. I’m going to re-watch that game tonight before I collapse in a jet-lagged coma.

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I have a bunch of draft notes to file when I arrive in Seattle but just to let you know they won’t be posted until Tuesday or Wednesday (depending on how jet-lagged I am). My flight departs early afternoon UK time on Tuesday.

Very much looking forward to arriving and taking in a week of sport (if only the Seahawks were 7-3 instead of 6-4).

Simply unacceptable. That has to be the review of a game the Seahawks threw away.

Literally threw it away, you could argue.

Everyone knows Pete Carroll wants to run the ball. He mentions it all the time. He’s spent several weeks this season speaking of a desire to ‘get the running game going’. The Seahawks have used two second round picks on running backs in the last two drafts.

So why are they so utterly determined not to run the ball?

The second half of the Rams game was one of the worst examples of game management you’ll see. With the Seahawks leading 16-7, if ever there was a time to run the football this was it. Instead, they started the second half passing on 13/17 offensive snaps. Then Geno Smith got injured. Surely, even if they’d avoided the run to that point, they would turn to it now?

Nope. They continued to throw. Even with a cold backup quarterback on the field. More throws. It was astonishing to witness. At a time when killing the clock against a team who defends the run poorly (and has Aaron Donald rushing the passer) was the key, they refused to just hand the ball off to a highly drafted running back.

Matt Stafford threw an ugly interception on a clumsy looking trick play early in the fourth quarter. It was still 16-7. Surely even the Seahawks couldn’t fail to notice this was now, finally, the time to run? It’s the final quarter of the game. Take time off the clock, if nothing else.

Here’s the sequencing:

Pass
Run
Pass
Punt

The Rams got the ball back and scored a touchdown on a nine-play drive. It’s now 16-14. You’re still winning, with seven minutes left in the game. Seven minutes. So what do the Seahawks do on this drive?

Pass
Pass
Pass (interception)

The Rams got the ball back, kicked a field goal. That was the end of the scoring.

Second half numbers — 23 pass plays, six runs.

I can’t remember a game being so badly managed during the Pete Carroll era. It’s absolutely incredible. It totally belies the stated identity of the team. They were putting the game on the arm of Drew Lock, the backup quarterback, when all they had to do was run the ball and play for time with a 16-7 lead.

The end numbers were 40 combined throws, with two other plays resulting in sacks. Geno Smith also had a run for -1 yard, a potential pass play. In comparison, Seattle’s running backs had 20 carries in a game they led right up until the end. How?

It was all so obvious too. Here’s what Curtis Allen wrote in his game preview on this blog ahead of the game:

The Packers modelled a game plan the Seahawks should strongly consider in their 20-3 win over the Rams in Week Nine.

What did the Packers do on offense? They ran 38 times and passed 26 times.

They deployed a three-headed monster of Aaron Jones, A.J.Dillon and Emmanuel Wilson and didn’t ask Jordan Love to carry the offense. They got 185 yards on the ground, Love was a nicely efficient 20 for 26 for 228 yards and a sparkling 115 QB rating. They won the time of possession game by nearly 11 minutes and were never seriously challenged.

33 of those 38 carries were provided by the running backs, a number the Seahawks have yet to reach this season, despite the fact that they have a dynamic running back room that now includes Kenny McIntosh.

The Seahawks are running a 40/60 run/pass split so far this season and Geno Smith is nowhere near his 2022 pace in terms of production. A 20 for 26 passing game and a 115 QB rating off the back of a big rushing day would be a blessing for all parties involved.

This isn’t the first time Curtis has written something like this and I’ve highlighted it afterwards. When it’s obvious to everyone that a heavy dose of running is the order of the day — for a team claiming to want to be a running team, with its words and actions — why won’t they do it?

You can only come away from this experience feeling like they’ve lost all sense of what their identity is. I’d say they’re confused and muddled — yet they do the same thing every week. Is this their identity now? If so, why are they spending high picks on running backs? And why is Carroll the coach instead of one of the high-powered, pass-heavy offensive coordinators? If Carroll’s in charge, the least we should expect is his chosen brand of football, right?

Meanwhile, it’s week eleven now and we’re still seeing the same issues week after week.

The offense can look really good for a quarter or two but then totally disappear — grinding to a complete halt, unable to do anything well. They scored three points in the second half. We’ve seen this happen in multiple games this year, not just this occasion where Geno Smith and Ken Walker left the game.

Third downs and red zone work — consistently poor.

The defense cannot create consistent pressure. It’s OK beating up the Giants and other weak opponents. They barely laid a glove on Matt Stafford in the second half, didn’t do anywhere near enough to make his life difficult and once again seemed incapable of stopping the Sean McVay scheme once it started rolling on the final two drives. It feels like there’s no creativity and no ideas when games start to drift.

The Seahawks don’t do anything brilliantly. They’re streaky on both sides of the ball. They’re 6-4 and haven’t even faced the tricky part of their schedule yet.

The worst thing about it is they’ve invested so much in this season to produce this product. They only have $6m in effective cap space at the moment for next year. They can create more, sure, with some painful big-name cuts. But it’s indicative how much they’ve already invested. They’re borrowing on next year’s cap, they’re absolutely all-in on this year. They’ve made their big moves, invested their money. And they’re 6-4 and playing like this.

They’ve also spent their second round pick in 2024. They’re 1-2 since the Leonard Williams trade, a highly aggressive potential 10-game rental. That 1-2 record includes this horrible performance and the beat-down in Baltimore.

Financially and now in terms of their trade stock, the chips have well and truly been thrown into the middle of the table. The Seahawks are going for it. They’re not treating this like year two of a grand build. They are being highly aggressive.

That makes a result and performance like this so much harder to take.

People don’t realise how difficult the 2024 off-season is going to be. They’re going to have to do so much work to create cap space to retain or replace a long list of free agents. That will include some very painful cuts and some starters being allowed to walk.

I’m not exaggerating in saying a mini-reset could be unavoidable. See for yourself, head over to Over the Cap. Look who’s out of contract. Look how little they have to spend. Look how much certain players cost — and what it’ll take to cut them. Consider the depleted draft stock because of their big trade.

They thought they were a serious challenger after that Browns game and that’s why they made the deal with the Giants. Three games later, we can only conclude the following. Either they badly misjudged where this team is, or the people tasked with leading the roster aren’t doing a good enough job.

This is a guest article by Curtis Allen…

On Sunday the Seahawks have one last game before the brutal five-game gauntlet laid out by the schedule-makers that will determine whether this team is a pretender or a contender.

I would surmise that the Rams are a perfect tune-up for it.

Just like the first game of the year, the Rams come into this one pretty banged up — with low expectations — and the Seahawks have a clear advantage in talent. The Rams are also on a three-game losing skid as part of a 1-5 run in the last six games that has tarnished the shine of an intriguing start to the season.

While we are all pre-disposed to never ever take a Rams team lightly, that should work in Seattle’s favor as a sparring partner for the heavyweights to come.

The Seahawks are a vastly different team than the one that played in Week One. Key players for this game who were not available for that one include: Jamal Adams, Devin Witherspoon, Leonard Williams and Jason Peters. Add to that the growth of young players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Boye Mafe (a very adequate fill-in for Uchenna Nwosu), Zach Charbonnet and the Rams cannot plan on playing the same team they faced in Week One.

On the flipside, the Rams have Matt Stafford returning from a thumb injury, Cooper Kupp is back and they have lost starting running back to Kyren Williams to injury.

The Seahawks are 4-6 against the Rams in their last ten games. That includes a high of beating them last year to secure a playoff spot, and a low of being bounced out of the playoffs in the opening round after finishing the season 12-4.

We have seen it all in this matchup.

How can the Seahawks walk away with a win Sunday and get some momentum built up for the stretch run?

Start Early

I have said this so many times about the Seahawks-Rams matchup I feel like I am on auto-pilot: The Seahawks must avoid a ‘let’s feel them out and see what they’re doing’ mentality early in the game. They have to get ahead of the game and come out charging and let the Rams try to adjust to them for a change.

Let me give you three Matt Stafford stats that back this up:

— First Down is his Worst Down. This year his completion percentage on first down throws is a miserable 57%. He has thrown for only one touchdown, had four interceptions and been sacked six times on first down for a dismal 70 QB rating. The Rams are nearly 50-50 run/pass on first downs.

— He is not good in the First Quarter. A 61.9% completion rate, only one touchdown throw, one interception and two sacks while he’s still getting his feet under him.

— About 58% of Stafford’s passes are thrown when the Rams are behind in the score. How does he do? Awful. A 57.7% completion rate, 12 of his 19 sacks, three of his seven interceptions are a pretty good story of why the Rams have been stuck in the mud the last few games. When he is ahead, he is far more effective. Coach McVay can settle into the game plan that he wants to play and giving someone like him comfort is just asking for trouble.

The Seahawks offense was one of the best in the NFL at early-game scoring going into the Baltimore game, ranking third in first-quarter scoring. In the last two games they have scored a grand total of three points in the opening quarter. Now let’s be right, they lost in Baltimore and they beat Washington, so it was not a smoking gun that led to a loss both games. However, a return to their effective starts would do a great deal in putting the Rams on their heels a bit and shaking up the status quo.

How can they get the offense on track early?

Run the ball

The Packers modelled a game plan the Seahawks should strongly consider in their 20-3 win over the Rams in Week Nine. The Rams started Brett Rypien at quarterback and couldn’t get on track offensively.

What did the Packers do on offense? They ran 38 times and passed 26 times.

They deployed a three-headed monster of Aaron Jones, A.J.Dillon and Emmanuel Wilson and didn’t ask Jordan Love to carry the offense. They got 185 yards on the ground, Love was a nicely efficient 20 for 26 for 228 yards and a sparkling 115 QB rating. They won the time of possession game by nearly 11 minutes and were never seriously challenged.

33 of those 38 carries were provided by the running backs, a number the Seahawks have yet to reach this season, despite the fact that they have a dynamic running back room that now includes Kenny McIntosh.

The Seahawks are running a 40/60 run/pass split so far this season and Geno Smith is nowhere near his 2022 pace in terms of production. A 20 for 26 passing game and a 115 QB rating off the back of a big rushing day would be a blessing for all parties involved.

One way to help this along: Oddly enough, the Tight End trio had some of their lowest snap counts of the year in Week One. Nobody recorded 50% of the offensive snaps and they were a bit of an afterthought as the Seahawks could not get the offense working in the second half of the game.

A return to 12-Personnel sets would give this team some muscle in the run game and give the quarterback some very attractive options in the short to mid-range passing game.

Defend the pass better

When we look back at that Week One game, the horrible offensive performance is what seems to have been stamped in our minds. But the defense was a confused, uncoordinated mess too.

The Seahawks managed zero sacks and only three pressures the whole game for a 7.7% pressure rate on Stafford. That’s about as calm a day any NFL quarterback could ask for.

The Seahawks kept switching their defense up, hoping something would stop the offense. This caused communication issues, misalignments and the Rams took advantage nearly every single time.

Whenever they rushed only four and dropped seven, they simply ran the ball on that light front or Stafford still found open receivers and picked them apart on in-breaking routes again and again. Puka Nacua burst onto the scene with 10 catches for 119 yards in his first NFL game in an impressive performance.

Now to be fair, the Seahawks have since tightened up and been more solidified as a unit — particularly on the in-breaking routes.

But a new (and yet old) defensive problem has emerged for Sean McVay to scheme to attack this defense: the Running Back pass.

It is an old weakness that had not really gone away but has just recently been exploited by opponents in 2023. It reared its ugly head Sunday against the Commanders. The running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson combined for 11 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. Several plays were ugly coverage breakdowns by the Seahawks and the Commanders exploited them to great effect.

Now the Seahawks currently stand – once again – as one of the worst teams in the NFL in defending running backs in the passing game.

That throws into sharp relief a paradox that has been growing and growing the last few weeks: If Riq Woolen (78 QB Rat/51% comp rate Allowed), Tre Brown (75/65%) and Devon Witherspoon (80/55%) have been so stunningly effective so far this season, why are the Seahawks in the bottom half of the NFL in pass defense?

Two problems were revealed Sunday by the Commanders: On both of their big running back catch plays, they found Boye Mafe (51 yards) and Dre Jones (48 yards) in coverage on their backs and exploited that for 99 yards.

Call it luck, call it scheming genius, call it whatever you want. There is absolutely zero chance that those plays escaped Sean McVay’s attention.

They simply cannot happen Sunday and yet the likelihood given this defense’s history against the Rams seems high that they will. How can the Seahawks mitigate the damage? That brings us to the other piece of the puzzle.

Yards after catch

Both of those explosive plays were obviously fuelled by the yards after the catch. Yet it isn’t simply a problem of singular big plays. It is a challenge the very middle of the defense is experiencing on a regular basis.

Julian Love (109 QBR/75% comp rate), Bobby Wagner (105/74%) and Jordyn Brooks (94/82%) comprise a little over a third of the defensive targets in the passing game this year for the Seahawks. Those numbers – particularly for the linebackers – look ugly — and they are. Yet often times they are guarding the dump-offs, where a completion is simple and so QB Rating and Completion % are rightly pretty high. So, keep that in mind.

However – and this is a big however – the yards after catch allowed are a problem for this trio. They have allowed 468 yards after the catch, accounting for 20% of the defense’s passing yardage conceded. The two linebackers have conceded 331 of those yards after catch.

How does the team solve this?

More consistent pressure on the quarterback is a great start. That can slow down every process and make things harder.

The other way to solve it is so simple it almost is ridiculous to mention.

Tackle guys. Get them to the ground. Tackling has again been a problem for the Seahawks this year. They have 60 missed tackles as a team per Pro Football Reference and the Love/Wagner/Brooks trio has 16 of those.

We have seen runners and receivers pinballing off of defenders who are not in good form to tackle. That is unacceptable. The Seahawks simply must not allow receivers the chance to make more football moves after receiving the ball.

The Rams do not have a deep running back group and this is Matt Stafford’s first game back after a thumb injury. They will likely try all kinds of short passes and clever edge runs of wide receivers to get the offense in gear and ease Stafford back into the game.

This is not some deep mystery. They have done it – and done it well – against Seattle for years.

If the Seahawks want to control this game flow, they must tackle well, cover tightly and be schemed to close these weaknesses and give the offense the ball back.