My first viewing of Will Howard had me intrigued
A thought dawned on me as I was putting this piece together on Sunday. The 2024 draft appears to have a top-10 pick problem.
This could be the second year in a row where teams aren’t getting value for money at the top of the draft. I’ve watched a fair few of the players being tipped to go very early in mock drafts and I have to say, there’s not been a lot to get excited about.
Caleb Williams will almost certainly be the #1 pick and Marvin Harrison Jr will be a worthy #2. After that though, it’s slim pickings. Just as it was this year with a limited pool of blue-chip players. I think we might see teams forced to consider profile, suitability and fit rather than simply running to the podium to draft the next ‘can’t miss’ talent. I suspect that’s what the Seahawks did this year but we’re already seeing people second-guessing the pick.
We’re only two weeks into the season and the online discussion is filled with Devon Witherspoon vs Jalen Carter chatter. This is my plea to the media and to Seahawks fans everywhere. Let’s not do this.
I’ve not seen Carter play for Philadelphia yet but I’ve no doubt he’s doing well. Talent was never an issue here. When he flashed at Georgia, he showed he can be a fantastic defensive lineman. He was the most naturally gifted player in the draft.
Yet he lasted until #9 for a reason and according to ESPN, even the Eagles were making a last-day decision on whether to consider him.
It will be revisionist history bordering on ignorance to brush off the extreme character flags surrounding Carter. These were not minor issues. We are talking about serious and multi-faceted concerns.
The Seahawks weren’t the only team that said no to Carter. The Eagles nearly did themselves. Philly were in a unique position within the league. They had a number of his former team mates on their roster and they were a Super Bowl team with a top-10 pick courtesy of an ill-advised New Orleans Saints trade. The GM Howie Roseman had money in the bank and could afford to roll the dice in a way other GM’s couldn’t.
Philadelphia was the best place for Carter. If he has great success with the Eagles, it doesn’t mean the same thing would’ve happened in Houston, Seattle, Detroit, Las Vegas, Atlanta or any of the other team who didn’t (or wouldn’t) have drafted him.
Let’s just embrace that and move on. The Seahawks weren’t staring at two cards on draft day, weighing up Witherspoon or Carter and making a call that would link the players forever. The truth is, Carter might not have even been on their draft board. My guess is he wasn’t on their board. We’ll probably never know for sure — but I think that is more likely than people realise.
It might annoy Seahawks fans who don’t have the information teams and league sources do on Carter — yet it was a totally justified position for the team to take. It’s why I spent three months getting dogs abuse for insisting Seattle wouldn’t take him. It was never going to happen, so there’s no point making this into a Witherspoon vs Carter comparison.
You might as well start comparing Witherspoon to Bijan Robinson, Lukas Van Ness or Will McDonald — all were probably more likely to land in Seattle after a trade down than Carter ever was.
Onto my draft notes from this week…
Early thoughts on the draft eligible defensive tackles
The best defensive tackle I’ve watched so far this year is McKinley Jackson at Texas A&M. He’s a shade under 6-2 and weighs 320lbs with great length (just under 34-inch arms). On tape he’s very capable of stacking and holding the POA to shut-down the interior run. His motor is relentless and he’ll often pursue away from the LOS to work down the line. Against Miami he showed he’s able to penetrate with quickness and explode into the backfield to create pressure.
Jackson looks like a beast on the field and Jim Nagy from the Senior Bowl noted after week two, “A&M coaches say nobody messes with Jackson & NFL scouts will love how he’s wired.” This is what the Seahawks are lacking a bit up front currently. Someone other than Jarran Reed with more beef who can still get around a football field and play with a mean streak. He’s someone to keep an eye on.
I’ve also been impressed with Texas’ T’Vondre Sweat. Supposedly he was a player not really making the most of his talent at Texas but now the light’s switched on and you see what he’s capable of. He’s huge (listed at 362lbs by the team) and he carries some sloppy weight which could/should come down. You also see inconsistent effort at times. However, so far he’s been unusually active for a man his size — creating pressure, disrupting, bursting into the backfield and being a force as much against the pass as he is against the run. His athletic talent could be harnessed even more by slimming down. He’s an impact player at the moment for the Longhorns.
His team-mate Byron Murphy has also stood out. I thought he was sensational against Alabama. He is smaller than Sweat (6-1, 308lbs) but he was often anchoring the line. Murphy consistently shoved blockers backwards and made splash plays to impact the quarterback. Alabama resorted to sticking two blockers on him and he was just so scrappy and combative throughout the game. Ranked at #18 on Bruce Feldman’s freaks list — Murphy has the major physical upside to back-up the tape. He showed that off by scoring a touchdown pass in the redzone against Wyoming on Saturday.
I have McKinley, Murphy and Ohio State’s Michael Hall Jr. currently down for very solid day-two grades. I think they’ve been the most active and intriguing of the players I’ve watched so far. I’ve been left wanting a bit more from Kris Jenkins at Michigan. He is getting early first round love but I haven’t seen anything to back that up so far.
Jer’Zhan Newton is active and look athletic for his size yet it’s hard to get a great read on him because Illinois use him a lot at defensive end. His flashes are good but I’d like to see him used in a more orthodox role. Mekhi Wingo at LSU plays with good effort, he’ll take any opportunity given to him to shoot a gap and his lack of size works well for leverage. I’m not sure he’s a high-upside type worthy of an early draft grade though. Team mate Maason Smith made his long awaited return to LSU at the weekend and he tipped a pass that was picked off and showed a useful swim move. There were also quite a few mediocre snaps too as he feels his way back into things. It’s a difficult game to judge because Mississippi State looked like a bunch of High Schoolers playing LSU — small and overmatched. The scoreline was no fluke.
This is certainly a deeper defensive tackle group than previous years. I’m not sure it’s necessarily loaded with first round talent, though. It might be a position where you can get good options in the round 2-4 range, without necessarily being a target area in round one. It’s still early, though.
Quarterback notes
Will Howard vs Missouri
This was my first proper look at Howard and I have to say, I was very impressed. He’s not a flawless player destined for the top-five but there’s plenty to work with here. I need to watch more but as a first viewing, this was a ‘sit up in my chair’ moment and I only typically have a handful of those every year.
The thing that stood out most to me is the way he was able to surgically thread passes into tight coverage over the middle. Missouri has a good defense and they cover well at the second level. He faced a lot of coverage situations that felt NFL-esque and the way he sneaked passes into very small areas with accuracy and velocity was extremely impressive — certainly enough to outweigh the bad moments in this game.
Howard also gets the ball out quickly, he can side-step and shift away from pressure to extend plays in the pocket while retaining a strong base and keeping his eyes downfield, he generally hits receivers in stride with good ball placement and he sees the field. He’s also a good athlete and a strong runner (he scored the opening touchdown on a read option, bouncing it to the outside, and had another TD run called back on a penalty).
It wasn’t all good of course. He threw an ugly interception on 3rd and 10 in the first quarter, throwing off his back-foot with pressure in his face. It’s a bad, avoidable mistake. He needs to learn in that situation you can’t throw essentially blind when someone is in your grill — or you need to realise the blitz pre-snap and check-down.
He almost had a second pick on an attempted bubble-screen that was never on. One of his touchdown passes also came on a lucky tip into the air.
Nevertheless, Howard is a toolsy quarterback who is well sized and already completing what I’d call NFL level throws. It’s quite easy to imagine him starting at the next level. The 2024 quarterback class was already deep and here’s another name to throw into the mix. I am desperate to see more because this was a very intriguing first impression.
Incidentally, the Kansas State left guard Cooper Beebe is destined to be a very solid pro at the next level and should be a top-50 lock. There’s also a tight end called Ben Sinnott who just blocks his head off and has a ton of intensity and grit to his game.
Spencer Rattler vs Georgia
Rattler’s arm strength has always been high-end but he’s now playing in a controlled fashion to make the most of it. On a 2nd and 5 early in the game he ripped off an absolute rocket for 25 yards to the left sideline. The receiver was well covered but the ball is perfectly placed to allow him to go and make a play. It ignited a scoring drive on the opening series.
Rattler consistently took what he was offered by Georgia, showing a newfound patience and competence. Yet he also made those 25-yard outs look easy. He dealt with pressure well, stay composed and was able to stand tall in the pocket and deliver.
He had a huge play with 2:37 left in the first half. He’s sliding to his left so balance isn’t ideal. Without a proper reset he launches the ball 45-yards downfield into a perfect spot for the receiver to make a 1v1 catch. he showed special physical tools plus anticipation. It led to another touchdown.
Rattler was effective as a scrambler when needed and he’s no slouch as a runner. He did a very good all-round job against a loaded opponent.
There was a lot more pressure in the second half and it knocked South Carolina out of rhythm. His offensive line was again problematic and there’s a clear talent difference compared to Georgia (unsurprisingly).
The conditions also deteriorated leading to a number of drops and a generally ugly half. He still moved around in the pocket well to extend plays, converting a 3rd and 15 at one point with a subtle step-up and drive.
In the final four minutes he threw two interceptions but it’s not too concerning to me. One was a hail-mary attempt downfield on 3rd and 20 with 4:02 remaining, trailing by 10. The second came with 19 seconds remaining, again trailing by 10, where the corner undercuts a route to the sideline.
Overall I think Rattler showed enough against the top ranked college opponent to retain momentum and belief that his talent and maturity are now at a level to make him a fascinating pro-prospect.
Drake Maye vs Minnesota
Maye’s first touchdown showed he can manipulate the pocket, exit to create time and throw on the run. However, the pass was under-thrown and he got lucky that the receiver tracked the ball brilliantly to make a great play for the score.
He dodges pressure well initially but there’s evidence his eyes will drop when he does buy time. He will sack himself as a consequence.
Maye threw an absolute bullet to the left sideline on 1st and 15 on one play, squeezing the pass in between a triangle of defenders. He showed excellent accuracy, placement and timing.
On the negative side though, he had two ugly interceptions before half-time. One when he was throwing on the run, he doesn’t see a linebacker and throws it right to him. The second, he is getting sacked and for some reason in his desperation to get the ball out he just throws it right to a defender. There is no UNC receiver anywhere near the ball. It’s a horrible, massively avoidable error and it’s not obvious what he was thinking.
He rebounded with a 45-yard dart down the middle of the field, then a pump-fake uncovered a tight end on a wheel route for a touchdown.
In the third quarter he showed he can excel with play-action, putting his foot in the ground and driving the ball deep down the middle. He couldn’t finish that drive as three inaccurate throws failed to find the mark which was unfortunate.
Maye is clearly talented with good size, a decent arm, the ability to make throws around the field, the mobility to escape and he can improvise. He’s also a bit error prone though, does drop his eyes when he moves around and he has inaccurate patches. He’s a good player but the ‘top-five-lock’ talk has always been premature and, for me, a bit off.
There’s a lot to like but I think Duke’s Riley Leonard is a similar player competing at a more consistent level currently. There’s still a lot of football to be played though.
I liked Leonard’s performance again at the weekend and I actually thought Michael Penix Jr’s performance wasn’t as good as the stats suggest. Michigan State were an abomination, offering easy throws galore. They also offered zero pass-rush, allowing Penix Jr the time to pick his shots downfield. Even then, he was aided by some spectacular catches by his receivers on not-ideally thrown deep passes. One of his touchdowns should’ve been intercepted but was somehow tipped up into the air with Ja’Lynn Polk collecting it and running it in.
The environment is perfectly set up for Penix Jr to succeed — he’s never sacked, he has NFL receivers dominating every corner they face and the offensive scheme is blisteringly effective. Very little of this is translatable. Plus there’s an injury history. However, he has such a fantastic arm. It’s a heaven-sent arm. The league will be intrigued by the upside of his throwing potential, 100%.
A final note from the weekend — Quinn Ewers reverted back to the Rice game and struggled against Wyoming for large stretches. It’s bizarre how he plays so well against Alabama and can’t do it against lesser teams.
As I’ve said a few times now — increasingly I’m starting to buy-into this QB class. It might not be loaded with obvious top-five types but this is a very good year to invest in a quarterback — for the future or the here-and-now. The Seahawks have four picks in the first three rounds next year and based on how this is shaping up — one of those picks should go on a quarterback investment. It’s overdue and it’s time.
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